« Armchair Expert with Dax Shepard

Dan Heath

Dan Heath is an American bestselling author, speaker and fellow at Duke University's CASE center. Dan chats with the Armchair Expert about why certain ideas stick, the emotionality behind urban legends and the benefit of thinking upstream. Dax implores those to think about the financial benefits to upstream social reform and Dan explains that every system is designed for its outcome. The two talk about systemic preventions that have a lasting impact, getting caught in a bad plan loop and they commiserate about being older dads.
This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
You know what a high bar, but its asp,
What is the system in public health, but not so much outside there, and it goes like this? they pointed you're, getting ready to sit down and eat, and then you her shout from the direct child thrashing in the river apparently drownings you jump in you save the child adrenaline studying the receipt, a bet you here, so back and you go you fish them out, then there's two more children and back and forth, and back and forth, go in Essex
swimming to shore steps out and starts walking away as those I'm going upstream to tackle the guy who's thrown all these kids in the river personal lives and at work where we were always reacting to things. The adding
Suzy, Azzam, you know you're, not gonna, hire a motivational speaker to come in and get people jazzed up and then in a graduate eighty percent want different results. You have to figure out how to reconfigure and redesign that system yap it again back to that quote. You just said it
so true writing it in this simple examples are like okay, great so when we give them sugar at six p, dot M or seven p, DOT M, pretty predictable outcome at seven hundred and thirty p dot m exact. I did these things just become kind of self perpetuating, and that was true. It Chicago public schools by the way, like one example of what the found when they started thinking about this as a system was discipline, policies This was the era in a ninety ninety, eight of being tough. Discipline, zero tolerance. That kind of thing and so I talked this one woman. Sarah Duncan you had a big role on the change and she said during that era too: weak suspensions doled out like candy public. Would shove each other in the hallway and they both be laughed at the two week suspension, but
to now. You know when it's so ubiquitous, we just gonna lose sight of it and in one the time when the patriots had been plagued by hamstring injuries, and even to some extent now, I think people think of injuries in the NFL has just well. That's just part of the deal right. it comes in and he has a totally different perspective is thinking, He comes in with this very different vision. At the time, and fell wait rooms were kind of like high school rooms.
custom for each position any focused, particularly on wide receivers, because prone to two hamstring injuries and end Europe hamstring injuries to three after him the question: why did they even bring him in if they were discharging it till? I, like that's part of his game. league wasn't there yet not. Today is a very different story. I mean people have done very sophisticated about this, an individualised training programmes in fact mark a cell. very, very sophisticated analyses of NBA players, damn them and in three dimensions and look at like the way they land after a rebound and they look like torque means just it's crazy and its.
You think about an injury like Heaven, Durrant and is just heart breaking and for the athlete or for the fans and and you trace it back and you wonder how many of these career ending injuries could have actually been prevented with the right attention at the right time and work, is Elliot by the way they scanned like more than half of the active NBA players so that they know what you're talking about no kidding and then he says you know certain kinds of pivots. especially in the knee they can detect with this fancy system are highly associated with it with me injuries, and so it's like you can tell an athlete, look The way your landing right now about ninety, stay too for more arm chair experts, if you dare,
all that No, ok! Well, my dynamo print me under use which Irma yeah. I love really cute dinosaurs on my Jim shortcut working its way up and then loan behold a solar power, the dynamo IQ I loved it, maybe wish I could just where me undies around town yeah. These are the days when visions of sunshine and serve dance through our heads, probably now more than ever, as we collectively mould into our couches, but we gotta keep the dream alive. Me. Unease is committed to the cause by keeping you in a constant stream of uninterrupted dream inducing Andy comfort. How do you read
this uninterrupted state of comfort. You asked with a membership from me. Unease and man is handy. Imagine this. Every month the softest Cosiest Andy's magically appear at your door, plus a membership comes with a site, wide savings, early access and free shipping mandates as a great offer. Forearm cherries. For any first time purchasers you get fifteen percent off an free shipping. You gotta give this super softness attract, especially because they have a hundred percent satisfaction guaranteed to get your fifteen percent off your first order. Free shipping and a hundred percent satisfaction guarantee go to me, undies dotcom, slashed Dax. That's me, undies dotcom slashed acts. We are supported by legacy bogs now money. It is mother's day, happy mother's day, mother Happy mother's day, and I can't think of a better present to get mom than did digitize all of the family Memories Legacy Box is a super symbol. Mail in service to have all your home movies am pictures digitally preserved on a thumb, Dr Dvd or the cloud you know I did this and I got all these really cute pictures of my brother and I wasn't the key one, but my brother is very clear and then I digitize him and then I can just email them to the family members in its so sweet and feels like you did a lot of Baden Duenna will that's one of the great things by legacy. Boxes is very, very easy. All you do. Is you take all the year old stuff right? You got your photographs, your VHF Dave, you ship it to them. They digitize it by hand, and then you can get a copy of the thumb, drive a dvd or the cloud ready to watch share and enjoy for a limited time, legacy boxes running a fifty percent off mother's day. Special order. Your legacy box today to take advantage of this incredible offer the zone the best discounts they ve ever offered legacy. Bucks is perfect for you or for someone. You love good, a legacy box, dot, com, slashed acts in say fifty percent, while supplies last
You give it a go example of problem blindness as a pretence, to homelessness and specifically, when Eleanor was the city Rockford, so have a very strong opinion about it. This could not be more appropriate for losses. Now what the fuck it goes into Olympic, I you know I wouldn't presumed to have a strong opinion of a friendly, diving, but I'll tell you. I got a lot of strong opinions about homelessness and then you point not really even talked to a homeless person which weirdly enough just before covert, I told Monica, I'm gonna interviewed ten, almost folks. Why
find out. What is the experience more? Why are you there? Do you wanna leave? What do you think that the things were doing what you think of you know and it just occurred to me. I don't think I've heard a homeless. And interviewed sincerely in a real interview, not a clip on the news to great idea until shelved at them but yet a walk through what happened there? Yes, a rock the gunning Larry Morrissey was mayor. He was in its third term. He said when he had started. He developed this too a brand new model of working on homelessness and he was pretty cynical about it. I mean the guy's been trying for nine years got nowhere like what's gonna change, but he reluctantly agreed. To be part of this ten months later, Rockford becomes the fur
This is a massive achievement, so that the obvious question is what the hell happened in those ten months and in several things
well I I you know, I saw him, he still got his tent under the bridge and you know he's been coming into the shelter for launch pretty regularly and tangible project. You know it with human face in a I'm, It defines a lot of work on on complicated issues like this and so purse. by person named by name. They just start winning. They start getting. People off the written into their own housing and in that the strategy that has been rolled out nationally by this. This group. I'm talking about built for zero that kind of reach. Train cities. How to think differently about homelessness
interviewed DA mayor setting and he had brought up the amount it would cost to supplement rent to prevent a vision versus the amount that you then spend to deal with. Anyone living on the street through medical costs and police in you know all the number of of expenses that come there are unavoidable, its pennies on the dollar. Exactly right. Isn't that always the biggest hurdle public it's very hard to get people in this country. To accept that there are cheaper ways to deal with problems, but that they're gonna have to violate? May be one of the simple concepts about liberty, Equality or one of these tenants right, but I so often the social responsibility to help forget, doesn't even my argument, The term people away at hospitals is that some, you think we're going to you in the? U S and
agree now we're never gonna turn people away at hospitals right. So we start with that fact, and then you go cables. Someone's gonna pay for all the people that don't get turned away, and you recognize that's right. That's the taxpayer! Yes, ok, recognise that. Ok, so Europe pay for whether you want to or not so is it cheaper? Is it a better use of money to prevent it? You know what what is it the total costs in it just seems like a very hard thing to get Americans Dubai into cause it? Maybe they feel like their violating the principle that there should be handouts? And it's like? Ok? Well, that's that's a fine position to have. I wouldn't argue whether you think there should be handouts or not, but we all agree. We're gonna have to pay for the hospital admissions. Then, let's just try to reduce that right. Complete agree, and in I've talked to some of the leaders of this homelessness movement and in the end, they acknowledge your point that part of their game plan is do what they call housing first, which it in the old model homeless. People would have
kind of earn their way into housing, so they would. They would first try to get him in substance, abuse treatment and then they would try to give him some kind of skills and then, as the seventh hurdle, it finally get into housing once they had proven themselves worthy the new model call housing. First, basically says homeless. People are first and foremost people without houses like that is the presenting bra as they are a person without a house. Why are we delaying the obvious if they don't have a house, let's get them in a house and then we can. I we can work. Only the problem subsequent than that in an either? That makes a tunnel since from a public health perspective from just a moral perspective, but building other people here that there like a wait? A second you just gonna like give free rent
homeless person on the street, and meanwhile there's people struggling to pay the bills, and I mean there's there this intention, their role and legitimately alot of people my. Why would I have to work and no one else s a worthy? And then why would you take some of my money from the work I'm doing and give it to someone who doesn't want to work so yeah? That's it an opinion to have that you're gonna pay for it, yeah, I mean what one way or the other. This is our problem as a community to deal with and saving money downstream on urgency, room, visit, sand and all the outreach that has to happen across agencies and an answer? You
get r a y, but you also gets you know that the humane benefit of helping someone without a house get a house to your point, you're. So right, the group of people we were exploring was called the the kidney list. People We wouldn't go like well. How do you make your kidneys, bad enough First rule change. Your beverage intake habits zigzag up. If make you prove that you will destroy another kidney and it's like ok what we should try to do that, but that that's pride not step. One did it's funny how blind we can be about these things were or were willing to pay a hundred downstream, rather than just take a few steps upstream and and probably the best example of those is health care. You know we spend three points, five trillion dollars a year in this country on health care and virtually every net love it is spent after the problem has happened. You know it's fee for service system its, triggered by somebody shows up with an element
and we try to undo whatever's wrong with you you're. So right I mean the expensive a yearly physical First is dealing with somebody. That's got full blown heart disease. There's no comparison in those. Now there's none at all, and if I talk to this guy Patrick Conway, he used to work as the Senior Minister Medicare Medicaid, and he said it's kind of outrageous that that we think nothing of of paying forty thousand dollars a year for insulin, but we won't pay a thousand dollars for a programme to keep people from getting diabetes, yeah, wise and pound foolish one lesson and homesick and be shooting something, we had hired police to shut down a road where, between ship some border- are talking the guy about, if asked Murphy's more recycling and shit, and then it came on the topic of homelessness. So I said you know from your point of view: what's the experience and he said well, you know here's one. The crazier things we deal with is that people are living on the side of the highway like if one or one in the five
a very dangerous scenario right that a police could remove someone from that that dangerous of a situation, the law are such here and in LOS Angeles that they have to evict them right. So they have to serve them in eviction notice and then You have some period of time after being serve that you can vacate right I want to say he said it was seventy two hours so your job think about what a fool, in insane proposition this is their job is, driving around the highway going. Getting in eviction notice, then serving it to somebody then try keen where was person person? Other mile marker thirty two point two, so I can go three days now and remove them from this very dangerous living situation is like I have even heard that I have heard that either mean that's a great example of a system that is just baked wrong. You know it's like we're, we're spinning all this energy just treading
water, so that the homeless person moves what one mile marker down and then in the whole process starts again, and and meanwhile, we could have found somewhere for them to live. Yes, yes, a year, I just I can't imagine how a police officer doesn't just throw their hands in the air like this guy and then serve them four days later before being of mile down the road, you could write, okay of ownership, lack of ship is is something curious about, but upstream versus, downstream works with downstream work, usually is pretty clear who's on the hook for something If your house is on fire by his job to come and put out the fire. I did sir. It's very easy, but When you start thing about upstream issues, it gets more complicated like if you were to ask booze. Is it to keep your house, catching on fire, there's probably at least a half dozen different parties. You could point, two, ranging from the homeowner themselves, of course, to the fire department to the people who write the building.
codes to the people who built your home and the materials they used and on and on and and when in that way a lot of times. What happens is nobody takes it because and so a lot of times. You know these that is the travel site. You know you can book flights in hotels and what you're back them in a calling the call centre in it it just. Ours is mine, like this is an online travel say. This is supposed to be all about self service. What's going on here, He digs into this turns out.
The number one reason people are calling is to get a copy of their itinerary. That's it happy of their itinerary? Twenty million calls were placed on two thousand and twelve for a copy the itinerant land, so they all just kind of collectively slap, their foreheads at one end and when attention has pointed out it is. It becomes a very easy fix. You know the issue was lot of. These things are getting caught and spam- and so you know you can change the way, send emails or or people thought it was a solicitation and deleted it, and you can self service tools, so people can go back online and get their own itinerary, as as a team go problem. This is not a big deal sharp, but what What's interesting about it to me is when this is a hundred million dollar problem, like twenty million cars times by bucks, a peace and Nobody was aware of it, basically until Ryan, O Neill does this work is see orgies snow. He was in the customer experience group. He was just you know, a guy couple levels below the ceo and he's just doing this research and
and it turns out that the EC speedier like virtually every company is divided into these silos. You ve got more getting team whose job it is to get customers to the site, and so there measured on how many people can they attract? And then you ve got a product. Whose job it is to make a great website that kind of funnels people toward a transaction and so on the things they might be measured on his, what percentage of people who visit end up doing a transaction, then you got the Tec Tee men and their measured in on things like up, I am for the server and then you ve got the call and their measured on. How quickly can I get them? of the phone and how be early when they hang up and all that kind of makes sense on a micro level. But then, when you ask us A question like whose job is it to keep costs you're right. Nobody in the whole system and, in fact, is even worse,
do the amount of time it takes to deal with an itinerary call, which was the case. Can we get it out for three minutes? The two minutes of forty five seconds- and you forget The bigger issue here was: why does anybody needed for an idea. How do we started the calls right? in general right corporations. Don't have someone in charge of synthesis right like looking at all the different components of the system and then and then figure and other interacting and asking those big question: that's not really a position that exist right. You can't really major, and that can you I mean. Sadly it does exist, but it's it's one person at the ceo, the ceos, you really the only person who lives above the functions and silos, but it's just it's such a buzz. He'll that these things would have to escalate to that level to be dealt with? In fact, that's what happened inexpedient it did have to escalate to the ceo. The ceo took it on said. This is madness. When you do something about this and then the leaders- of the silos came together to work on it collaboratively, but but you're right you
is that there was some more organic salute into this, where, where people were more actually crossing silos without having to come from on high there's no pre set space for workers to step. out of their job. You read it in a centralism that book they talk about bill gates, you know he had a baked into his schedule. It was every couple money. and he took a week, and he just he just thought he just thought about bigger global issues at Microsoft, and he left the trees to look at the force in it for her was so crucial for all these other great see thousands stuff it. So, port, and to leave your narrow point of view to try to gain some precise active and to start doing some of that synthesizing Zack there were, and what you're? What you're focusing on here is something that I call on the book tunneling, which is a term I stole from another book or scarcity of psychology, booklets great here's, the essence of tunneling a woman even needed Tucker before her dissipation Harvard
around a bunch of nurses for hundreds of hours is shattered them to see what their days were like an she pretty quickly. This they're always solving these weird problems, the pop up in a sometimes their simple, like their departments not a towels, and so they have to run down the hall and steal some towels or another group, or sometimes it medication is now available when they need it to someone It's really weird things. Like Anita Tucker, writes about this one day that the nurses trained. check out a woman who just had a baby and part of the check out processes, recover that security anklet that they put around in a bid to knowing things the wrong baby home and this case, it was missing, which is a big deal, is not yet security threat, but they found the anklet in the baby's bass and that so problem solved, and then we leave. The exact same thing happened a few hours later, a different mother, different baby, missing anklet. This time they couldn't find it, and so they have to go through another protocol to make sure the moms taken the right baby, home and so on. Tucker writes that
These nurses, they were resourceful and solving problems. They were spontaneous there. Proposition all they didn't need to run to the boss every time something bad happened, and so it's like this this inspiring portrait of nurses. If you flip it around and look at this from a different perspective, you realize what I'm just driving here is assessed. that never learns? Never improves. around problems? In fact, what what surprised a single instance of where nurses were doing like root cause level analysis like hey. Why to pocket nurses or throw stones at them well, especially now high time this is this not be the environment the matter, but
of our sympathies are with the nurses right that that what could they have done about this? They ve got twelve patients who need them right now we can they just how's everything to do like a formal root, cause analysis and try to get the manufacture on the phone, and I mean it's it's absurd yeah, but when you think about it We can't figure out a way around that trap. It just dooms them too genuine to solve or work around the same problems every week in every month, forever, more and so in a back to your point, you know about bill gates and others think we need a way to allow step off of that hamster wheel and ending agent systems analysis to be clear. This is not like some some genius idea. I just thought up. People are actively working on this, like in health systems. They have what they call safety huddle in the morning where they'll get together a bunch of doctors and nurses and they'll, say: ok, look back on yesterday were
any near misses where something almost went wrong in your. What were the circumstances and today, we have any complicated patients that we need to talk through to make sure we have all up our ducks and our own, so that would be ideal forum for this nurse to have said we had this weird happened yesterday, where to babies both had their secure anklets Bala like we need to look into that. So I think it doesn't take much I don't have to revolutionize the way people work, but we do need to build. Then these little escape valves where they can kind of step out, as you says, about the trees for second to see the forest and then and then get right back in the end it feels like it has to be. A cultural thing were: were businesses recognised, there's gonna be two dead days a month or what for it is in that the cost of doing business and ultimately, it's gonna, save us a lot of money, but it I guess it takes courage right cause. A lot of these things.
Hard to measure their long term goals. They dont bear immediate fruit, so so it takes some willingness to spend the time in capital the sea in the long term. How it works. Is that one of the big hurdles I mean it, it's all hard and in the moment, because I may even even as a dad that this happens, the time were alike, constantly in these situations like guinea, get shoes honour, we're getting them out the door whatever and any effaced the sport in the road where you could do something the right way and it would take like Annex what it would take to just do it the quick way. Now you know, and so they always do it the quick way because it's faster, but then you do it the the quick a thousand times in a row affect me, you would have been better at just you know deviating in fixing the problem once and for all. One time, for the sake of of not getting back the river again and again and again here the answer prevention just thinking scale in these
the boy had a big issue with their a big company, Earl this year was a catastrophe to say the least, and it was exactly this. It was a breakdown of like that. Companies, so huge scale is so large that, like me, no, I couldn't did the same person more than once and nothing was getting communicated, but I could also reckon from their standpoint like? How could they possibly fix it probably think all of this is too big. This is impossible the way I was, and let me just piggy back on that cause. I thought of the same thing when you're talking about the Chicago School District, although you get the economy of scale with great numbers, do you also transfer? We get it just gets almost empty support to manage. It must be exponential issues, as things grow now yeah. I think it cuts both ways. You know back to that court about every system is perfectly designed to get the results it gets like if
good results, then the inertia is in your favor. You know the system is kind of baked properly, but but if you're not it can be a tall order and you know Chicago public schools, it took them a good fifteen years to turn it around me. This was this is not a quick win situation and it took them. fundamental ways of designing the way they serve students, one of the biggest just they had to make, was a mindset shift where before teachers would think about their role as it's my job to do. a good lesson. It's my job to tests have learned the things that I've shared, but if they fail that's, ultimately, the kids fault That's that's a problem on their shoulders and in the new model. What they realized is it's not just to kiss prongs our problem, and now, if it fails, it gets a joy. Problem of the teacher in the student. That part of their role is to support the student and they Are you doing this really innovative work? This is based upon the work of a woman, Elaine Alan's worth an academic who study the situation and found him
fascinating that you could predict in the ninth grade, who was likely graduating who was likely to drop out with eighty percent of clarity. Ninth grade saw the son you, four years of advance warning, and so that kind of when the door right where they start to think hey. Maybe we really could change this, and so this metric, was a freshman on track. Like are you on track to graduate? And if people were, they were three and a half times more likely to graduate than people off track. So they start organizing these meetings in school call freshmen success teams where they would get together every they, together biology, teaches math teachers, english teachers, assistant principles, coaches, and remember that Rockford example where they went home person my name by name. They did the same thing and Chicago schools. They would go didn't buy student on the list of people who were off track and they figure out hate what we can do David he's not shown up the school is we need to get somebody call home to make sure he comes then on those days when he's absent- and so is
didn't buy student that this progress happened. success team started getting students to school. More often, they started boosting their grades. The teachers were helping out in its to move these on track numbers and then four years later, exactly as predicted. They start graduating and higher and higher numbers to the point where in two thousand eighteen, the graduation re with something like seventy eight percent. I mean that's crazy up by more, Twenty five percentage point something just did talking about tens of thousands of kids. exactly right or didn't graduate yeah stating for more armchair chair experts. If you dare
We are supported by till she listen, there's a toilet paper shortage. Everyone has an ass. Everyone deserves the gift of tissue. T2, wiping your but with dry toilet paper does not remove all the shit. Now we now it s. Now, if you got poop on any other party or body, would you just wipe it off with dry paper? No, of course not water cleans better and dry paper, my friends. Thankfully there is now a sleek buddy attachment that clips under existing toilet in sprays your but completely clean with fresh water. It's called touchy and is the best thing you can do your, but as something in a cave man. Yes, not drag and drop Havre along your bottom hall and gives them water up there in clean it proper tissues. Praise directly to your ass removes the poop completely so aren't sitting on bacteria. That leads a nasty things like hemorrhoids east infections, utilise itchy, assholes and skid marks and listen to this, it's only seventy nine dollars. You pry, save that right off the bat if you're buying toilet paper on the black market, so listen go to hello till she dot TK
slash armchair to get ten percent off your order. That's hello! T! U s h, why dot com, slash armchair, we are supported by the legal Zoom health and safety is the top of everyone's mind right now, no matter what happens you want to make sure your loved ones are protected. Mats white legal zoom continues to provide a reliable way for everyone to set up the right estate plan without leaving your home. Now, as I've told you Monica, I actually made my estate plan on legal zoom about seven years ago, and I
delighted without nor uneasy, was to do at its bulletproof, its virtually the Massey pre up now it starts with finding the answers. Your question is: do you need a last will and testament or living trust? What about in advance health directive and what's a power of attorney? Thankfully, you don't have figured all out on your own legal zooms online resources make it easy to get started in if you need to speak to an attorney their independent turning network. Is there to guide and advise you legal zoom? Isn't law firm? So you won't have to worry about expensive Bilbil hours. Adding that take an important step for your family to day go to legal zoom dot com to get started on a last will living trust in more or find out how you can speak to an attorney for advice on the right estate plan. Legal zoom or life meets legal, ok, ensnare you now with what we about upstream thinking. Yes on a couple different pet projects, thoughts of my
Why Leslie ensnaring begin let's do this year, so so obviously, right now covered nineteen there's a lot to look at in terms of upstream here you ve seen the sun fall, because I have some provocative views. As you ve seen it. I'm old words was yours. Was your stream, alarm going off like mine was like, while this is litter this is where were we don't even know how many people have, because we can't get these tests like that? It's such a glaring example of systemic issues. Right it was just a a complete failure, of of management, and, what's so depressed about this one to me is there a lot of truth, unpredictable things that happened in the world. That leaders have to deal with a mean. Nine eleven is a classic example it's hard to blame someone for not being ready for plain,
flying in this skyscrapers. You know yes, yet of an asteroid. Hits earth like we're were going to give a lot of tolerance door leaders for dealing with that, but a pandemic. Even a corona virus pandemic is something that people have been talking about for years and years and years. We knew exactly what needed to to be ready for this, and yet the preparations were continue in a swept under the rug under funded, and may I credit the public Health people New at the game plan wasn't dead as much as they could to prepare. But you know when you're perpetually de priority as an under funded what're? You gonna, do I it's not on their shoulders and in so I It was. It was worth situations where we were able, in fact, did foresee a bit. Julie, huge problem and we just didn't get our act together. So my I am looking like, I do a disclaimer, you should Social since you should wear mass, you should wear gloves. You should do everything everyone saying I am for
That's all I see the highest telling he added I, protester with a rubber flag. On my homer with that said, I was up. Opinion that many of us in California had already had it. That's certainly the verdicts out on that, but as monarch, and I would argue about this and people would say well, we would have seen a bunch of debts like there would have been all these unaccounted for death california- and I M immediate- where my brain goes, do there's a tsar somewhere over Looking all the deaths in California in Committee the catering daily or weekly or monthly, with the CDC that there's some kind of coordination between states counties in the CDC. That's a pipe dream, that's happening. I said you know people dying in nursing homes. Undoubtedly with symptoms that look like pneumonia, that's the most common way in old person would die so a This brought no reason even look into it to begin with the times that their samples were sent out and they said they didn't have the flu ok with another.
Funding launch an investigation? And now this just came out, so they have concluded that the when in California that died in February sexist died of corona virus, we're just lucky her. Tissues still exist in the morgue that they could discover that, but that woman ass for tests from the CDC and there like a get real ooh this summer, die of some respiratory, unanimous ain't, no conspiracy, theory, just an over Jenny In view of that, there's someone watching over all this step, the man you know, I think I think you two cynical about all. Ok, Claudia, please tat. I think that there are people who Paying attention to this- and I think that there is There- is a rhythm and in peace, at which people die, that that is pretty well understood and when, when deviation start to happen from now think public health people start getting curious, I mean this is one the things that happens in the plea that that none of us are even aware of that actually helped? This call
the process from being even worse than it is public health. build these amazing, what they call surveillance systems around the world which is not like creepy org. Surveillance, but just an awareness of no kind of What ailments are popping up where, in my talk to this woman named Julie, Pavlov who worked on infectious disease for the army, and she told me the story? The discount blew my mind and I don't I don't remember the date of this, but they had like six cases of the flu. pop up in in one clinic in South Korea. A few years ago can somehow you know this clinic was plugged into this international surveillance system, and so somebody in the? U S paid attention to that. like hey. This is: where does that it women from zero to six? In the same day, could you fly, some samples to to alarm and San Antonio. We want to check this out, it's all the same strain of flu, and we want to see if this seas flu vaccine is good for the strain, and so it turned out that it was which was a great role
but even if it wasn't it still, given them a lot of lead. Time may be for the next season flu vaccine, as that new strain of flu spread around the world. So there been some incredible strides in figuring out. What's out, there figuring out was going wrong tracking the incidents and early warning of these things before they happen, we have bear in mind, even as as a lot of aspects of this response seem like a calamity, it could do better. worse in the absence of somebody systems that have been built over the years. I am regularly blown away with how good a lot of the systems are, that there is no question. I guess my point was more. You can't find something you dont know you're looking for, if it's not what they're looking for, I dont know how they connect those dots think this. This situation is unique in that it had the liability that it, it disproportionately killed all people and you ask less questions when old people die. I think. Or theirs. Unless you know it's not like always at twenty four year old jogger who died,
kitchens I, as an eighty two year old man who smoke for fifty five years case. Clubs guy, I think in February or fall or whenever, if the California spills we're running out of ventilators, they would have been like something is happening here. Has we don't normally have this a joy? I think a red flag would have been way as like something is off, is so many people are getting pneumonia in they were They have no one to look for, but they were. The signs would have appeared that, like oh, no, we don't have resources, that's not normal. I told I agree with you in situ nations, where the number so you're looking at country to country now even state to state the. Mortality rate is so drastically different wherever Europe, wherever you get this disease right. If you compare New York's percentage of people who die of the known cases is tat its ten fold of what
fortunes is so yes in New York. He would definitely notice it, but there are areas that you might not notice it when were seen places like hell for industry some some pockets words, so it's a really low number of fatalities versus cases and in those situations, I think it's. It would be easy to miss it yeah. It's got me- we're gonna get into the wheels of the mayor. We don't need to do. I have to say that Caliph no was in LOS Angeles really and California was one of the first stage. to really start implementing all these hard core change is the answer I credit bad for the difference in what we are seeing now with mortality rates, the men- maybe that very well may be the case, but if there were people with in January, when we now know that there was, we just want social dissidents in no event, what an- and this is a good example of one of the core ideas in the book, which is just you know there are different
Can a layers of upstream. You know that that experiencing now social, distancing and so forth is kind of The problem is already amongst us and how limit the damage. That's like a half step upstream and then a couple Also, for that is how do we do early warning and this problem, so we can really prepare mean think about the the amazing fact that we had like six or eight weeks early warning on this thing, maybe more mean there's. There's rumours now that they were discussing at last fall mean that's an incredible. Luxury to have that, even if it was wasted mid. The mere fact that we could have done something is is phenomenal, and then you can keep going upstream. I mean we theoretically could have prevented this years in advance. You know that I was reading, forget the Germans name, but a guy. Who is a researcher of the origin of viruses and and the transmission from animals to humans these flew related viruses from bats. You know it
and even bats in specific regions of China. You know I mean this is not like a problem. That's too far fetched ever solve. It boils down to like there's these caves of adds in China that we need to be monitoring on a regular basis, the issue. Is you know in in good times when nothing like this has happened and and the guy who climbs around and back caves in China? Like wants you to triple? Is budget your life? When we got other things that are more urgent, you know we can afford the really be investing in there. I now and then years later, the corona virus heads and you think we're crate what- and that is where I am incredibly sympathetic to the government and all these states, which is next week, it'll, be a hurricane and then will be an earthquake and then will be some fires. So yeah there's about nine trillion things. We should be working Preventative Leon in theirs is limited resources, time and all those things, but you just kind of touched on the very low, Ass thing. I didn't really Winnie supporters in that argument from receiving a defeat for now, but I'm gonna. Now pivot, the
Other issue is yes upstream, as you start moving further new ones, but where do invest money right? It's so big, but if you really are committed upstream thinking, I feel like all roads just have to led back to an investment in childhood that what this is one where I were, I definitely agree with you in fact: there's there's a ton of research has come out in just the past few years to back them up, didn't you What's that with a surgeon, General California, the young lady, in border areas, as is she's, so good idea. So there were work on aces, adverse childhood experiences. It shows that there is this lifelong impact from trot happening in childhood, trauma, ranging from in a physical and sexual abuse to in appearance parents. Getting a divorce is a suspect, of things and therefore
Lifelong health consequences, Amene physical health, as well as mental health again and again were finding that its those first, two or three years of life that are just absolutely foundational, and it's not like this is a problem