Republicans gain in the Senate, Democrats win the House, and Election 2020 begins! Date: 11-07-2018
This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
Republicans make shocking gains in the Senate Democrats when the House, in elections Twenty begin today, I am bench bear this. Is the benchmark, Arusha whilst creating oh, no, not elections wanted. What can we have a moment's red? No, no! You can't. This is like when the Christmas music starts in the middle of Thanksgiving, ok, twenty twenty has begun because it is now after twenty eighteen elections have a lot to say about the twenty twenty elections have a theory of of what Trump is. What really that I think tracks much more closely with the data than a lot of the theories that went out there before I came up with this morning, and I am very proud of myself we'll see if you agree with that theory just a little while first, let's talk about how you can make your business more efficient. Well, you can using software from like one thousand nine hundred and ninety six. If you want your business to be efficient, when you are dealing with a real head scratcher around the house like plumbing or electrical issue, I mean go to person on call, brain or which is why I want to tell you about some,
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the by all expectations of political gravity. By the time the night was over, it looked sort of like we had predicted here on the show. Yesterday I suggested on the show yesterday the Democrats when thirty five seats turns out they one thirty four wheel looks like you didn't even thirty, four in the house and I predicted the Republicans we're going to pick up anywhere from two to four seats. In the Senate, which they did it, looks like they picked up three in the Senate right now, maybe four by the time. All of this is said and done now. This has led to a lot of puzzlement. How is it the Republicans could lose the house but pickup seats in the Senate, but because the map was uniquely bad for Democrats this time around in the Senate, Republicans did over perform and, yes, President Trump had something to do with that. President from visited a bunch of battleground states in hotly contested Senate races and every place you visited Can it at one president from has unique yet or getting the base revved up, and particularly in close and elections that does matter so does have coattails when it comes to getting the base out, he does have reversed coattails, however, when it comes to house races, virtually every purple seat, there was contested
every seat in a suburban district. The Republicans help when two Democrats last night at is deeply troubling for publicans. So there is good news for Democrats. There is good news for a public and there is bad news for Democrats and there is bad news for publicans and good news for publicans. First, the Good NEWS is that the beloved STAR, making candidacies beta or roar and Andrew Gilman Flora Barrow rubbing send a candidate in Texas. Those came to an end, ass night, all that can till crashing hope it Org spent more money than God has and still lost his raised. It was shockingly closes. A three point raised that he was in Texas. I think a lot of that has to do with the deeply flawed candidacy of Senator ten crews, who has soared mortally wounded himself in a lot of ways, since twenty sixteen, but with all of that had been a rock, did, go down in flames after spending one, but Julian dollars, that is an actual number one billion dollars was spent by better or worse.
He went down anyway, he's basically like the Joker in dark night. He just went around saying that it's not the money that matters. It's the point. The point just set giant piles money on fire, so bitter work goes down in Texas and revealing goes down in flora. He was another person who, according to is going to win bronze sense instead comes from behind and snatches victory from the jaws of defeat, which is great. I, like governance, scientist. I know him he's a good man, nice, family and all of the attempts to malign misery as a racist by a radical again wriggling wet for not in Florida which it, which is great news. So why, It also look like MIKE the wine one in Ohio, Ohio, gubernatorial. Rest Republicans kept a bunch of g gubernatorial seats.
In places like floor at Ohio, where redistricting matters also. It is true that they retain a bunch of Senate seats that they needed to attain to looks like Kristen Cinema, who is a radical radical leftist in Arizona lost, Martha Mc Sally, which is to reflect Senator mix ally, which will be a great centre. Airforce pilot First airforce pilot combat to be female, and yet the media didn't see see fit to cover that as a feminist victory or Marshall Blackburn winning Ascendancy in Tennessee. That was not a feminist victory. The only feminist victories for people endorsed by the women's March, of course, but those were key seats. Obviously the Indiana flips Joe Donnelly in Indiana Democrat. He loses two, a republican business person, so these are all big wins for Republicans. They do losing Heller.
Nevada that was largely expected, but overall the talk of a blue wave was overstated. Now, how you see the selection is dependent on whether you see this as a year in which report in which democratic revenge you ride back in an overtake everything or whether he saw this is rebuilding here. I think the democratically very skewed view of politics, thanks to the Obama years. I think that the Obama yours may Democrats believe they were never going to lose again at tromp, was an electoral aberration and that therefore they were going to sweep the victory. They're gonna come back and sweep through the house sweep through the Senate. Take everything back in one fell swoop: Trump was just a mistake. A blip on the radar while turns out from is not a blip on the radar Republicans, not a blip on the right or the state seats. The Republicans wondering about his tenure or not a blip on the radar if they had seen last night as rebuilding the farm team, if they had seen it didn't bring us just at this minute, more amusing. Her metaphor, if and I think she's right if Democrats had seen this as we are in recovery.
Here, then it was a very good night for Democrats right they win back the house. They, when virtually every contested, see across the country. They asked a bunch of republican incumbents, including incumbents, like Dave Brat in Virginia, which is really not gray. I really like to wrap congressmen from Virginia who ousted era cancer if you're a call back in two thousand ten. All of this is to suggest that Republicans have some problems. Democrats have some problems because Flora and Ohio are not solidly in the democratic life and that's problem for them. In future presidential elections Republicans have a problem because some states, like Pennsylvania, Michigan Wisconsin those states looked to be trending back blue, which is a real problem for them. If President Trump would win in twenty twenty Flora and Ohio lose response in pencil, Dania and Michigan, he loses the election. Needs to win at least was content of those three the Scots and was very tight. Last night, Governor Scott Walkers, been from mendous governor, was ousted an extraordinarily group, close race that may end up in a recount in Wisconsin,
but political realities are back in play, so the polling was was flawed in two thousand. Sixteen, the pullings lot was flawed last night. That's why I was able to rely on data and barely predictably predict what exactly was going to happen in the overall numbers. So there's a bunch of lessons to be learned. President Trump, of course, is taken away the lesson that he also because he's president from so he treated this out last night, drought, tremendous success- and I thank you too well from a certain perspective that true Republicans gained a bunch of seats in the Senate, so many seats in the Senate. In fact, it will be very difficult for Democrats to take the Senate in twenty twenty. It also means that President trumps agenda for the next couple of years is going to be judges, judges, Joe
just more judges, in fact, there is a case to be made that president from gains by politically by the Republicans losing the house, because now he just gets to punch Nancy Policy gets through rockets, sought them robots. Nancy policy for the next couple of years, Republicans basically have very little legislative agenda anyway for the next couple of years. So now they just get to blame the Democrats for nothing happening and trumpets run against Nancy policy. Not bad for him, however, did Trump have a massive down ballot effect for a public and those negative. Yes, yet in
ballot effect or people like Rhonda tests and flora, or folks like Braun in Indiana. He had it in a ballot effect for for TED crews in Texas, obviously, but when it came to the House races, the negative effect of president from was pretty evident. The exit polls showed that a huge number of suburban districts did not like President from do not like present trump and that there is blow back for President Trump run that level. So what we saw last night in short, red areas got rudder Louis couple or all of the trends that we saw in two thousand. Sixteen would double down upon rural areas when heavier republicans suburban areas when bluer for Democrats is that a trade the Republicans are willing to make. Maybe for now that's not a plan for the future. With that said with that said, the Democrats, I think at least partially, are looking at this insane. Well, though, there are a lot of blown opportunities there close only counting, horseshoes and handling
Andrew Gillum. The only one in Florida is not Andrew Gillum winning in Florida and Beto O'Rourke. Nearly winning in Texas is not beto. O'rourke winning in Texas, you can see Trevor Noah was very disappointed. Last night on comedy central, he said the blue wave was basically just a smurf peeing so was touch and go for a while. Today, the blue wave was looking more like swimming p. Smurf there was paying and what was worse is that the results just wouldn't come it up they. I think that if you look this morning, s who feels relieved and who feels unsettled The every one should be that everyone on both sides should feel both relieved and unsettled. I mean that there is good and again there is good news for both parties and bad news for both parties, but I think the general perception is that Republicans are relieved and Democrats or unsettled Democrats legitimately had expectations that twenty sixteen was a complete outlier and that there are going to return to vast power automatically, just by dint of people. Don't like tat and that obviously was not then now. I think Course Jones is take he Jones over the course of the night with a see yo up and down with a Yo Yo over on CNN, but he's
by the end of the night. His heart had been restored because democratic retaken, the house- I don't think this is completely unjustified. Democrats did take the house. The wave did not break the levy, but I don't wanna suggested Democrats didn't have a good level of success. Last night, again they one thirty four seats in the house. That is not a historic upset. That's well within sort of the margins of of typical midge. Elections, but it is a it is a win for Democrats is another way to put it How many hours ago was? You said this was heart: breaking where's your head now by heart have been restore. It is the end of one party rule in the United States, thank God and the beginning of a new democratic Party younger browner, cooler, more women, more better can win in Michigan can win in Pennsylvania when and Ohio we have. The first muslim women first american women of of the first battle of Massachusetts. First letting it from Texas
it may not be a blue whale, is a rainbow wave is something happening out there and I'm happy about ok. Anybody who believes that Van drones has a good read on this election is absolutely wrong. What actually happened is a bunch of moderate Democrats in suburban districts. One in there were some democrats in more progressive districts who won in more progressive seats here, but the notion that a bunch of progressive swept into power and that what Democrats have to do in twenty twenty is down more cow about more cowbell, where the data we need is more progressive, and if we run a hard core progressive in twenty twenty we're gonna win. That is not the lesson democratically learning and to talk about the lessons both parties ought to be learning in just a second after we finish reviewing sort of what happened in the election last night, and I both parties are gonna, take away the wrong lessons from what happened last night. But first, let's talk about your sleep quality. No. I know that when you think about sleeping thing about a lot of things, you sleeping my pillow using very mattress, but one of the things you probably don't, think all that much
that is your sheets, because you just got a set of sheets for your wedding or for your graduation or something or use, went down to your local bloodbath and beyond and picked up Never was on the shelf therein and had a high redcoat lagoon. Hearthrug count means that is also what the truth is. If she's probably What you really need is boll and branch sheets, because they are in fact pyretic. Everything at Bollandbranch makes wedding. A blank is made from pure one hundred percent organic cotton, which means they start out super soft. I get even softer over time. You can buy directly from them here. Essentially, paying wholesale prices luxury sheets can cost up to one thousand dollars in the store and branch sheets are only a couple of hundred bucks. Even three President sleep on bull and brand sheets, shipping is free, can for three nights. You really have nothing to lose, issues are so good that after I slept on them, I legitimately got rid of all my other sheet and bought marble and branches. They are Dat comfortable to get. You started right now. My listeners get fifty bucks off your first set of sheets at bull and branch. Dotcom promo code been as bull and branch, dot com, promo code ban. Again, oh and branched outcome, promo code, then from
fifty bucks off. Your first set of sheets be allow an branch, dotcom, promo code, then ok, so we should say upon farewell to at least some of the candidate who ran yesterday. They don't work, then a fond farewell to his audience. He will be back. Obviously he he ran a very competitive rates and a state. We should not have been competitive, he'll be lost by a couple of hundred thousand votes. Maybe three hundred thousand votes in Texas, a super red state, and then he decided to his cool guy. So he skipped he flipped boarded any skateboard in their flip, kick stopped on the stage and then dropped. The F word, because she's cool it all right. That's how you know that our goal is a cool blog from the Simpsons there's been aura. I want to thank this amazing campaign of people
not a dime from a single pack, all people all the time in every single part of taxes. All of you show in that country how you do this so proud of you guys. We have heard several of these said wow better work with, and I, was writers. Whether he winds or lose is better work is the big winner. Well technically, when you lose it kind of a loser. Technically. Well me to get all pedantic, but when you lose that actually counted using so better work, what will he be back? Yeah, of course, you'll be back but kind of like John Ass, often all this talk about losing does lead a stigma on you always talk about Beto O'Rourke for President two thousand and twenty. I think that is premature. Losing does hurt you and we go. Who is supposed to be the rising star in Florida,
come from behind what a primary against more moderate computer. If you lost that primary, probably Florida, the democratic governor right now, but Miguel and loses drawn Santa's, which I am very grateful works. I think an wriggling run a terrible, terrible race. He slandered runs s racist for no rational reason that I can put my finger on at all. He lost the race, but he said he's not going anywhere is untrue. He may be going to jail actually depending on the FBI investigation into what has he hears. The mayor of tallow has he's been ensnared in F B. I corruption investigation in which he took a bunch of goodies, would FBI a region, heresy. Andrew give, however, saying he's not going anywhere and then leaving, but I guess I can I can guarantee you this. By going anywhere we're going. Try, google cheap biting yeah he's going somewhere like away, I'm in again a lot of these. He raises president from it
play a role and truck type pointed this out and ambition news. He is correct. He says that president from may have pulled the scientists across the finish line Brian Camp in Georgia, who won a victory in the Georgia race where he was not expected to surpass, need serve runoff margin. He did so look from deserves a lot of credit for lot of these key races that happened last night, President Trump waitin on both primers. He got involving both primaries and pulled up both across the finish line and they're both going to eke out against proud, progressive african american Democrats debate, while that is that is worth noting that I think that it is true. It is also true that president from has upsides and president from has downside. So now, let's go through some of the bad news Republicans, as there is a lot of good news for Republicans last night, so political points out in their right, suburban Republicans, were swept away. The republican Party in the House looks a lot more frumpy than it did yesterday.
All the modern Republicans we're goin. Now there a lot of people who may celebrate that all were a purer party. Now you need those suburban republicans. If you want to govern, you do need people able to win in some, and the demographic movements in the United States are way from rural areas and towards urban areas, people are moving out of you sort of outlying areas and more toward suburbia more toward big cities. This is why that race in Texas was so close, because the entirety of the state of Texas is deep red, except for Austin in Dallas, inhuman, and those are exactly the areas that are growing so for Republicans to sort of give up on those areas, and just you know what they're brow and say: oh your last night was fine. Yet this is more, like Republicans should be worried about the future of the party if the, if the red wave in twenty sixteen begins to risk so political points out Democrats when suburbs from the eastern seaboard all the way, Nevada didn't just pick off low hanging fruit, GEO Payment
his longing to be vulnerable, expanded into Dallas, Houston, Oklahoma, City, Richmond. All this is true: Republicans like Barbara Comstock in Northern Virginia good, solid, Congresswoman Virginia. She lost my coffin in suburban Denmark having Yoda outside Kansas City are positive, the twin cities they all lost, but they also asked and Steve Russell in Oklahoma, which was a much deeper red and Karen handle in suburban Atlanta Democrats when both toss up races in Virginia, they knocked a boat, suburban Texas membership, Culver's in Houston, PETE Sessions in Dallas incumbent, Carlos Coelho crashed burned in South Florida. Republicans kept only a handful of suburban seats, so obviously republicans have to worry about that What what are the things that I'm saying? That's hilarious today is Democrats saying: well, we really did win in a way because look at the popular vote in the Senate. This is really become a thing. Stop being an idiot and popular vote in the Senate doesn't mean anything one slash three of the Senate was up. The Senate is not a popular vote body,
in other words, Montana has many senators. California racking up boats in California does not help you the Senate. Not only that Democrats retained their. There are thirty three seats up yesterday: a Democratic retained by twenty of the seats, so what's not get out over our seas when we suggest that the public has rejected, Republicans, and yet the system is structured. So Republicans when, anyway, no that's called the United States Senate. It's been there for quite a while, so stopping stupid. The political points out that Denmark made was to send until twenty twenty two. As I pointed out earlier, the the fact remains that, as of twenty, twenty Republicans are going to hold fifty four Senate seat, which is three more seats than the GNP now hold its one. Eighteen map was bad. He twenty twenty map is not all that great, if Democrats lose the Alabama see which they will they only one this time, because Roy more was garbage candidate, the only republic,
free elections in state Hillary, one hour, Corey Gardener in Colorado and Susan Collins in Maine. Susan Collins is a very good politician in her home state, and so there is a significant possibility. The Republicans only lose maybe one seat there there there they have to have a wave, basically in order for them to take the Senate and twenty twenty that seems doubtful. Republicans did hold some big governorship Democrats hatched the blue wall, but it is still vulnerable. So this is a point of political making. That's worth noting in Michigan Democrats, one the governors the incumbent, Senator was re elected. The party picked up. A house in Iowa Democrats picked up to how seats in Wisconsin Scott Walker went down and Senator Tammy Baldwin one reelection, but remember Trump, was not on the ballot in any of those places and as political went out in twenty ten Republicans, one, the governorship in Pennsylvania, Ohio was causing an Iowa and senators in Pennsylvania, Ohio, gods in Illinois and then Obama, one them all and twentys, whilst up Trump again was not wrong. We on the ballot in any of those key states, so maybe in risk
mountain and Michigan and Ohio and Pennsylvania from does better. Then the Republicans did in this off your election and one thing that the Democrats are really picking up on is that a lot of women, one as because more women ran out of women ran and their own positions to wines that that makes a big difference, but Democrats are taking the wrong lessons from this election cycle. They wasn't that they are taken from this election cycle is look at all the progressive radical We got. You acted right because you primary more moderate candidates in progressive districts, where Alexander O cause your Cortez, they think now is the future of their party. According to people like the Jones, you wanted shall lack your own chance that national parliaments make Alexandria cause your Cortez ahead of your party tax, that extreme left what the american people basically gave democratic referendum to do was to check from in the house.
And to act in more moderate fashion and what they gave Republicans referendum to do was checked more ridiculous excesses of the Democratic Party, but I don't think that's the message that either party is going to take away from the election last night. I'll explain in just second. First, let's talk, that ugly thing that you ve got on your wrist. You need a better watch. Ok, you just do it. But watches are fantastic. I have been an advocate for movement. For a long time there startup team has made movement the fastest growing watch company in the world. With a versatile line of watches, glasses and accessories, he'll be sure to find the perfect holiday gift this season, they ve dropped,
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where to start the guys over a movement that you're back, ensuring that all your favorite styles and special gift boxes, just for you at fifteen percent, not today free shipping, free returns, but a movement outcome and the empty dotcom, Slash Shapiro, that's envy, emptied outcome. Slash Shapiro, again check out their latest over there and get fifteen percent off today. Free shipping, free returns, joined the movement and the empty dotcom, Slash Shapiro, ok, so one of the lessons that they show that the party should take away the lessons the Republicans should take away is that if they wish to see long term success there are going to have to start appealing to these suburban district. In other words, the district and Mitt Romney do better in the Donald Trump are still important. If Donald Trump can hold the rural districts in the way that he has any has because democratic polarized, if you can hold those in some now start appealing to the suburban districts. Democrats are in trouble. By the same token, if Democrats keep appealing to suburban districts with moderate candidates,
Republicans are in trouble. Unfortunately, it seems that everybody is doubling down on what brung them there and what that means Democrats are embracing the radicalism and Republicans are embracing the excesses so everybody can take the wrong lessons from today. Like the Democrats, you saw that clip a ban Jones, a low bitterly earlier her, the clip of engines little bit earlier talking about how he is so excited that all of these progressive have been elected well, that there were a bunch Progressive selected again mainly in areas in which they supplant, there other more moderate Democrat is something the Washington Post is pointing out. My Democrats in the MID West outperformed ideological Democrats in the sunbelt. This is an absolute back and that's an important thing to recognise that if the demos had run a bunch of like machine, would have done better across the country Omar. They actually did instead, They are championing the fact that people like Rashid, Rashid Us Labour and Ill Hunt Omar one there congressional seats there, the first muslim women elected the Congo
That's fine only problem is, they are deeply deeply radical cuts I didn't have any republican challenges in her districts of launching the primary issues in Congress and L Hunt Omar was the favourite prevail in a solidly democratic district. Both them are radically anti semitic. Nanda, Israel, the Democratic Party, is celebrating all of that. The democratic party is out there championing the fact Sharif David's, a lesbian native American becomes one of the first You native american women, elected Congress. I and the other one is not was before she's the first openly algebra ciccu cans, it ok, but the fact is that the candidates, who won last night. Overwhelmingly are people who are not talk, long radical lines. They are overwhelmingly in the Democratic party people who seems in and not raising, another democratic party could take away from this. What we need is a base that is jazzed up,
The intersection of coalition rides again Intersection coalition is not a thing intersection coalition does not actually when victories did that occurred. Here is actually something that the democratically to recognise. Look at the Texas rate for just a secondary zeal in Texas, race, Wada, people, unloved very, very upset about better better or losing the TED crews in Texas, and they look at the voter breakdown. What they see is that ninety five percent of black women voted for better work and seventy one percent white women voted for TED crews and you're. Seeing tweets like these white women are tools of the patriarchy. First of all, the same stuff like that. That's definitely go when you elections is insulting the base that you need one. That's definitely gotta help me out. Second of all, what that actually suggests, but that actually suggest is that you believe that you are going to make more hey. I somehow winning ninety eight percent of the workforce and alienating the entire white female face. I Democrats actually
less upside. It allowed these minority communities the Republicans have upside in those minority communities. What I mean by that Democrats, if they blew it out, strongly when a hundred per cent of black female vote in Texas Republicans, if they blew it out, but when another twenty nine percent of the white female boat in Texas in there's ninety five percent of the black email. Both they could theoretically go there's not a lot of room to manoeuvre for Democrats, they may have maxed out their intersection coalition and the numbers just aren't big it up. That means the folks they need to be appealing to are those white women not insulting those white women? And yet what you see is the Democrats are in fact insulting those white women, their insulting people who are not members of the international coalition. They could take the wrong lessons from all of this. The states Democrats need to win again in the twenty twenty election if they wish to president from they need to win Michigan, Wisconsin and he's when Pennsylvania? If they, when those three, they won the election entirely
and it's gonna come down to those three states. Those are stays where the intersection of coalition is not going to be enough, as are states where you need to be able to appeal to it. And yet the Democrats in some ways are getting more more radical. As I say, a couple of anti semitic Democrats, one less like Youth Ellison became Minnesota attorney general spite all of the controversy jogging him. The fact that an ex girlfriend accused him of beating her up. So I guess that he beat someone else well, night was not his ex girlfriend bobbin and as in New Jersey, who may end up in jail for allegedly weighing on underage women in the Dominican republic. He ended up winning his race in a walk and just showing you what in Jersey, as Madame in New Jersey, just astonishingly Jersey, a juror imminent, as its trial, showed up at his victory celebration, I'm not kidding hairs,
the over long as reliable as I know bomb, and then there was a very good. It was an important and I saw all the evidence for many times no permanent. What you did wrong something here. Three ass lambs Vanessa resource. I voted with large areas of us. Yes, that's it! That's! That's! That's really great! She certain lenders during the elections, victory Party the democratic double down there. On the other side, the Republicans are double down on the Trump and what s the trump I don't mean they're, doubling down on President Trump. I mean they're doubling down on the effect now imagine for a second that Republicans had not double down on trumped effect, that in the last three weeks of the election they run on cabinet here is this
the weird thing that sort of how did they wait? Breaking news narrative played into this election cycle so wreck? Having heard the Democrats, there is no question. Every Democrat voted against Brett Cavanaugh in a red state lost last night. We much all of them, I think maybe one exception: Casper went down, Height Camp went down there, bunch of areas for Democrats, lost and lost big because a bright, Cavanaugh romance and did not lose partially because he did not vote against Brett Cabinet if that had been, and that was because Democrats exposed themselves as partisan hacks stored, narrowly ridiculous and an extreme measure that would have cut in Republicans favour Republicans in hand of hotly contested districts was last night. Part of that
because the closing pitch for the from campaign was doubling down on the banks. Do you think that Rhonda Santas one in Florida because of the talk about the migrant caravel? I don't, I don't think anyone flora, because of that. I think that it had very little to do that. You think that that Martha Mc Sally one in Arizona because of the Migrant Caravan talk. I really doubt it really doubted, because three weeks earlier, she was skulking Kristen Cinema and then it really taken up in the last three weeks. So the Republicans who believe that President Trump appealing to the base is the best strategy for electoral victory, that sort of missing the point what people want from president from if from, With that, if the best version from available it would be, the president from was capable of fighting back against the radical left in punching and punching by doing so. A in a manner that is strategic as opposed to sort of it. Driven an epidemic
that's any brains, they'll be running blue collar candidates with moderate peel. It seems, however, that both parties are determined to double down on what the base wants, not what the rest of the voting public wants and that spells a very contentious couple of years. We're gonna talk in just a second about what the next couple of years spell and then I want to lay out a theory for you about president from twenty twenty rock Obama that I think few people have actually discussed as yet. First, let's talk about for a second, how much you are spending at the Post office, so I don't post offices- great there one great services, but do you really want to spend the time in the card? You really want to be spending the time and money on gas to get in the car drive over to the post office for your business? Why not just have a service that allows you to do all the great things the Post office does right from your desk and then you just click print male you're, not framing this
Well, that's what stamps com is war stems tat. Come allows you to access all of those great services, twenty four seven, whatever it's convenient for you, you can buy in Prince official. U S postage for any letter. Any package using your own computer and printer male carrier picks up click print. Male you're done! We! U stems icon her. The dealer our offices and saved us time, and it takes us money right now. He's promo code Shapiro for this special offer. Fifty five bucks, a free postage digital, gale and for we trial again that stamps dot com before you anything. Click on the radio microphone at the top of a homepage and typing promo code, Shapiro that stem start come promo code Shapiro, and when you use that Roma culture Piero, yet that special offer up to fifty five bucks, if free postage, a digital scale and afore, we trout, it really is terrific. It saves you time and its age. You money, there's a reason we use it here. Zelie wire stem start com, use that promo code Shapiro. Ok, so I want to talk about what an alternative history of the last month in politics would have looked like laterally, and I also want to talk about what's coming next and my grin.
Area from twenty twenty, but for first we can have to go to subscribe over at daily wired outcome right now. Nine. Ninety nine a month means that you get the rest of the show live means get thrust of claimants. Alive gets rest noses, shall live. Tons of people were watching our daily wire backstage. If you ask to ask a question: had had be a subscriber to do that plus when you subscribe, you also get access to the final question on our Sunday special this week. Sunday special features features John Stasi. We remember from box news libertarian reporter really has some interesting thoughts on the economy and for the country, there's a little bit what that sounds like I'm John STAR, so annoying libertarian amateur beyond the bench. The oh Shapiro show his son special this Sunday talking about individual freedom, and not invading lots of other countries, so that, as an interest in conversation gonna wanna, go check that out this Sunday. Please subscribe overt Itunes or Youtube and leave us to review at Itunes. It really does help our rankings over there. We really appreciate
all your support places have the night. By going ninety nine dollars you get to the annual subscription, it is cheaper than the monthly subscription, and so you need to get this through leftist years, hot or cold tumblr. The only thing that sustain me through last night's marathon session in covering the election you too can be sustained and emboldened by the leftist years, hot or cold tumble, go check it out right now, where the largest fastest growing concern replied cast in the nation is already so. Your president from has responded to the Democrats, winning the has we'll get to that in just a minute.
But I do and discuss what the alternative timeline looks like for the election last night. If it had not been about immigration, if present from it not swell determining Cavenaugh all the way down, I think Republicans have a better shot retaining the house, and I think that, when the same number of seats, if we Democrats had not done cabin, I think Democrats do much much better in the Senate and I think that they have a better shot of winning the house. So, basically, both sides did their damnedest above is watching, and neither side was completely able to all of which speaks to twenty twenty, which is why I know, what's on everybody's mind, let's take a look at the twenty sixteen map real fast. So if you look at the twenty sixteen map in you know in the presidential election, what you will see in this map is that, president from one to three hundred six electoral votes, that means it takes to seventy one. If, president,
were to lose Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. As forty six a letter about, I mean she's gonna to sixty, he loses the election if he wins, Wisconsin loses Michigan and Pennsylvania. He's got you seventy if he loses one of the boat in Maine he won one vote in Maine. If you, Is that one button may, which is probably likely this point, then he can win Wisconsin and you anybody to sixty nine to sixty nine tie. I, which is just, everybody's worst nightmare. A wind, a tie in electoral college, which gets thrown into the house were Nancy. Pelosi presides which is just nightmare scenario, but
the reason that I'm bringing up this map is because the theory of president trumps that president from finally broke that blue wall that existed in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, and that the Democrats thought that that was an outlying effect. Here's my theory. My theory, is that President Trump is basically a reversion to the statistical mean that there is not his giant from movement wave surge that has changed the nature of the country. Anything like that and what actually happens that Barack Obama was an outlying candid, hugely statistic. Go out wire and that what is happening in states like Ohio in Florida and was content in Michigan and Pennsylvania is much more of a reversion to the bureau of the preparation of our Europe, and it is anything else which says to the Democrats. In your intersection strategy. Is a giant fail. It says to republican They need to do better in reaching US suburban areas, but it really is review, so the intersection of politics of rock bottom, So here is my evidence for the proposition that what is basically happened here is a reversion back to the pre Obama Europe
I say: look at Ohio in Ohio, the was recent presidential elections, George W Bush versus so two thousand Republicans. When fifty percent of the vote, two thousand for Republicans when fifty one percent of the vote, nobody comes along and Obama breaks them all right. He wins. Ohio with humans, Ohio and republican boat share drops to forty seven percent and forty eight percent respectively. And president from comes one Obama's is no longer on the ballot. Hilary is uniquely bag candidate and Republicans when fifty one percent of the vote again I said what that means that that is reversion back to the pre Obama, Europe. That is not a difference in kind it is a is a reversion back to before about Democrats. Thinking Obama changed, the world Obama didn't change. The world Obama was just a uniquely good candidate and from republic
didn't change, the world from was running against a uniquely bad candidate, and he was reversion to the statistical mean. Here's my evidence with regard to Florida in Florida, Republicans one forty nine percent of all in two thousand fifty two percent of the vote in two thousand for then they one in two thousand and two thousand twelve forty eight and forty nine percent of the vote in two thousand. Sixteen from one forty nine percent- the vote. You won the election because Hillary Clinton lost the election actually won a lower percentage of the vote in twenty. Sixteen then dump then publicans one in twenty twelve, but he won because Hillary Clinton crappy candidate, Again, reversion to mean in Florida Wisconsin what about this, this shocking, the green was content or no Republican and one since nineteen. Eighty four look at the vote shares for a second two thousand for public and voter forty eight percent. Two thousand for forty nine percent, then Obama comes along again. Statistical outlier adventure drops to forty two percent and forty six percent. Then two thousand sixteen is back up to forty seven
point two percent again that is lower than the percentage of votes, one by George W Bush in two thousand and two thousand, for that is revisions of the statistical Mean Michigan same thing in Michigan, two thousand Republicans, when forty six percent of the vote to those in four forty seven point, eight percent of the vote and about a comes along forty one and forty five percent about then two thousand sixteen forty, eight percent of the boat worrisome point five so again from wins a lower share of the vote in twenty sixteen than George W Bush one in two thousand for humans and state. That's a reversion to the statistical mean it is the same thing in Pennsylvania, where the republican Vote chair was forty, six forty nine in the Bush years and a drop radically during the bottom up, and there was back up to forty nine during Trump. What this success is that the country is still actually broken down very similarly to the Bush era. It's just that. Rock Obama broke them all, but that more could not be broken for anyone else. That did not apply to any one else, so there
the are still doubling down and infrastructural politics republicans I'll have to do is play the Bush era cards They still have a shot at winning in all of these places, but just as Bush lost a lot of those battleground stage was gaunt in Michigan Pennsylvania right, just just as Bush boss, some of those states. The reality is that right is the Donald Trump he's. Gonna have to do better than Donald Trump did in twenty sixteen. If he wants to win again in twenty twenty in that means channeling his anger, it means less and less surrender of these suburban boat. That's what this means. If you want to win, that's what it is, so it's not deceive ourselves, the republican side of the aisle. I thinking. Ok, we're just gonna win from now until the end of time Rocco was not on the ballot. Hillary Clinton was on the ballot and Donald Trump. Yes, is great at a certain number.
One was not on the ballot. Hillary Clinton was on the ballot and Donald Trump. Yes, is great at a certain number of things, but that is not. The luck is not a business strategy, as I once had my business partner, and it is not a political strategy either. Ok, what comes next! What comes next year could actually be good news for president from Nancy Policy is running the house that gives him a nice big target to hit And that now diplomacy is is smarter than I'm giving her credit for impasse. She's attend being a sort of moderation, because I think the Nancy Blowsy does get that not everybody can campaigners Nancy Blowsy and went across the country. Girls, Nancy, closing ass night talking about what the election was really about, what she says: was actually accurate More than about Democrats and Republicans, it's about restoring the constitution's checks and balances
do the trumpet major up when it when it when she says that checks and balances, if Democrats restricted themselves to checking from worst impulses, they being the Jake The question is: can Nancy Pelosi have in her own base? I dont know that she can. I don't know that she can an example this lassie yesterday before she gave the speech she asked about impeachment and she said not interested impeachment by her base is very interested in impeachment our want to conduct investigations of the branch, whether we have to impeach the president that serves their purpose to say that we certainly will smaller investor responsibilities, oversight. Of the executive branch: will there be a move to impeach the present? It depends on what happens in them and in the mother investigation that is you not unifying- and I get criticized in my own party for not being in support of that, but I'm not. If that happens, it would have to be bipartisan and the evidence would have to be so conclusive
rights that is Nancy Blowsy understanding that if she alienates the moderates across the country, it's a mistake. I wonder, Republicans going along the same lesson, president from give a press conference today in which he discussed the election and his entire Watch and strategy was everyone who didn't like me lost every one who, like me, one? That is not true! Everybody liked, President Trump in frumpy districts, one everybody who, like President Trump in purple districts, lost it president from is going to have to understand that if he wants to win reelection, it's not gonna be enough to just double down on the gather brung. It he's gonna actually have to use connection We have to change strategy a little bit. It looks like Nancy Policy actually understands that which is scary. I want for not understand that. I wondered alludes right. I don't want anti blowsy uncharged government. I want Elizabeth worn as president of the United States. I would be remiss if I did not point out the Knesset. Mosey also is a gas machine last night she she actually called for people to cheer for pre existing medical conditions like yeah, diabetes, mesothelioma, nerves, Nancy Policy,
stopping the g o p and might miss MC tunnels, disorder, Medicare, Medicaid, affordable care and the health care of one hundred and thirty million Americans living with pre existing level. Conditions are more appropriate jesting medical condition, cheerily yeah, praying and Emily kids were Lester like. Why may even here, man just get me out of here. Just get me out of here now again, we'll Nancy blows you be able to continue, contain the enthusiasm of rural base. I have serious doubts about that. Did the bases clamouring for investigations which is going to be not terrible from more investigations or from its all big into the cake them if they get a statute? and it turns out that dude gives charity to puppy slaughtering mills. No one's gonna care, Emily everything has begged into the cake for Trump. If democrats want to waste their time for the next couple of years in investigations, they knew that the only thing, though, I think, damage from
at all is if they came up with some evidence of Molly means that self enriching or something but even there. I don't think that there can be much Adam shift. However, who has now he's known, be the head of the House Intelligence Committee and he is suffice. It said the atom shift is moved his pipe tent from seeing and Green room over to the House Intelligence Committee. He says there will be more investigations, more cowbell, more cowbell. Think that the chances that Burma will be able to finish this work improved for the reason that our committee and others, like the Governor Form Committee and the Judiciary Committee, which, under overcome leadership, serve, is basically surrogates for the president in there. That's too bad or down the Justice Department to give the present approach. Text, a fire people, the Justice Department, all of that that that
tearing down of the independence of these institutions is going to end its out did this is you know their pitch? I dont think that pitch is going to play in twenty Twond. I am not being a natural pessimists means. I think that every party takes the wrong lessons from last night's elections, but again their encouraging signs and discouraging signs for both sides in that election. If people are wounded, tea leaves there's a lot upside republicans if they don't there's gonna, be a lot of downside, ok time for some things I like and then some things that I it's so things. I like your. It is true that we are an amazing country in which we get to transfer power safely from one party to the other, in a variety of chambers, checks and balances keep our right safe for the most part and that that is a wonderful thing in putting kind of a patriotic would Erin Copeland you'd recognise a lot of his music because he is responsible for appellations bring he's. You did a version of radio which is which is fantastic. We must play that
the cowboy music- but here is his fanfare for the common manual recognise this as well, and there is something uniquely american about this. The sound here is Erin Coastlines and for the common man,
let's get started digging, wasn't too it if you're in the mood today, and why not in the mood today. This is a pretty spectacular country, no matter how elections go on a one off basis and we voted for where's analogous totally normal when people say that that all the Republicans didn't hold the house, there has never been sins in in the last century, since nineteen sixty eight since nineteen sixty eight no party has held all the house to send in the presidency for more than four years since nineteen sixty eight so last night was fairly predictable and it also provide the data and I have to say I route for data. I liked it because it gives me something to go on. It allows me to actually make my analysis smarter, I'm sort of happy that the data was justified last night, I even if they got the races wrong in places like flora I'll get time for a quick thing that I hate
So this is many amazing, LISA, Milgram Overhead, Marie Clare, has be stupid column of it. I thought why trumps America we regret adopting my daughter's. It makes me regret for adopting her daughters because a crazy person, but she wrote our daughters came home from China more than a decade ago. The first time their tiny feet touched Americans. Well, we made a big deal with it so happy about everything that inherit his newly minted Americans are already head over heels in love for them every opportunity we could afford and freedom from China's oppressive government and its controversial one. Child policy the same policy that was most likely. The very reason that are available to join our family. World away, but now I worry, we made a tragic mistake: you're right, leaving kids in a chinese orphanages, way better than bring them to the freest country in the history of the world and most prosperous country and history of the world probably should have left them in the chinese orphanage. You crazy person in this. She says:
I pulled these two beautiful babies, away from a rising power and into a damage. Democracy really realisation China, the United States, in essence, is damaged. Democracy in China is arising power. China is a fascist one party state in which people do what the government says up to and including their their actual number of children. I brought two girls of color into society: words clear that their word in their bodies are worth less than a man's a autobahn sexism in China gang it's an actual thing. It's an actual problem is the reason that why you think too much of girls were available for adoption in China. Not a bunch of boys because of sexism in China, everything that racism is uniquely american phenomenon, it is not. For example, black Panther in the United States opens to enormous numbers, enormous numbers, rightly world, shaking numbers, black panther, barely two, this and try to racism is the actual thing around the world. This were open overrate
has become even more likely than it was a decade ago. According to this woman, and unfortunately words aren't exactly tinfoil how wearing paranoia, although actually they they they are. There two years ago rights this crazy person. I brought my daughters to the voting booth with me, expecting they'd witness the election of very first woman president. Instead we got a guy with multiple sexual allegations made against him bats candidates for the highest posts in the land, while some of assault emancipation claims against them again. Keith Ellison is the new Minnesota attorney general. That involvement end, as is the returning senator from New Jersey, meets. You may have brought the conversation about sexual assault out into the open and help to clear the entertainment industry of some of the worst offenders, but the current administration seems farmer willing to promote and prosecute the accused, no, actually that's not accurate read. There are those of us who are one of the great ironies. How many times you you're any democratic Campbell. Forty thousand did I hear one of them and you're one of them. Anyone say no one should both urban and us and in her one of them, how many candidates of ice had Republicans should not vote for, because
would be immoral blot a bunch, including Roy, more don't give me this crap Baja, Republicans, dump least their own. We believe our own a hell of a lot better than democrats do even in areas where we feel at least there's a kick back. At least there's a kick back. There are. A lot of Republicans were upset that Steve King retain his seat in Iowa last night. How many times across Europe. Seventy thousand one, the attorney general seen Minnesota upheavals in it. Hell of a lot more racist and then then Steve King even does from power MR in his campaign, would rollback Roby weighed and a new Supreme Court Justice, Brett Cavanaugh conservative judicial record makes it seem, he'd be just the man's helped to it. The matter has protestations that he considers it. Settled walk yet either my daughter's may lose the right to control what happens there, bodies, especially if they could end up with a pregnancy. That's the result of a sexual assault keeps me up at night, but it's kind of weird that you're, so proportion considering that your daughter's literally are alive because they avoided forced abortion at the hands of the chinese state. Is that
The reason that I read this from requires not just because I'm picking on a crazy person, but because unfortunately, but this base of the Democratic Party fully convinced that the way to win is by shouting and screaming, like a crazy person. So it's it's really really really mistake really really stupid, so well done everyone just com, calm down, everything's! Ok, all right, we'll be back here tomorrow with all the latest breakdowns, both president from reacting in extraordinary fashion to the election of all that I'm bench grow this adventure.
Russia. The bench of Euro show is produced by sending a villa real executive producer, Jeremy, boring senior producer, Jonathan, hey our supervising producers, math is clever, and our technical producer is often Stevens edited by Alex Angora Audio is mixed by micro. Mina Heron makeup is by just one other then Shapiro Show is a daily wire Ford, publishing production copyright for publishing twenty eighteen.
Transcript generated on 2020-02-10.