I'm David Brown, and this is business wars, we conclude our series on the new space race, Spacex versus blue origin after a bump, start things are looking good for Elon, Musk, Spacex last May, the company's crew dragon kings. So he had a milestone in human history by man, during a safe and successful round trip to the International space station carrying its first set of astronauts aboard as ever old, Elon Musk NET worth shot. Skyward

in January. He surpass Jeff basis to claim the title of richest man on earth, but don't count basis out just yet NASA recently added blue origins, New Glenn rocket to its list of vehicles eligible to compete for launch missions after decades of incremental leaps forward the space race feels like it's really wrapping up and, though must in basis are the most popular contenders, they're, not the once in the running for more work, talking with TIM Fern holes. He wrote rocket, billionaires, Elon, Musk Jeff basis The new space race and he writes about space, and the economy for courts. He'll be talking with us about the future prospects of space travel and whether space tourism is really viable. That's all just a so Your business comes down to an innovator, followed by a competitor and a story who can adapt faster and, if you're,

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runs the shows these days it seems as of now, where do things stand in the space raise? It has been a sea change in the last few decades that you just recounted as these new players, backfire, Jeff Basis and even Musket really change the industry and proven to be major source of innovation. The way things stand now is NASA now fully embraces working directly with private companies rather than designing their own hardware and handing it off to the military industrial complex. Seeing now the venture capital industry throw hundreds of millions of dollars at new space start ups that are trying to follow in japanese lines with so we ve seen a major change. Four major inflection point because of these firms, but at the same time the real promises still become. What brought about that

change to the status quo ante I mean you were talking about how NASA used to do things right. There had been some sort of inflection point that made NASA willing to trust Outside contractors, like Spacex, in my view. We saw that inflection point with the commercial cargo programme, which was NASA's programme to hire private companies to carry cargo up to the international space Station, and while it may seem like a small thing to fly cargo to the International space station, you have to remember that the highest s cost us more than a hundred billion dollars. It is very delicate and it has people on it, but you have to keep alive and so any time So let's a spacecraft near the IRA says it has a lot of confidence in it and once NASA became comfortable with private companies likes me

that's flying around the I s ass. It really opened up the whole range of possibilities for private firms to work with the. U S space agency, I wonder what it is that when you are looking at the end of the parallels, what what's similar about these characters, a mean putting aside the United Launch Alliance, why Elon, Musk and Jeff those in a space race. Maybe that's what it comes down to whether both very unique figures before them. A lot of attention and a lot of criticism. But I think, if you look at what having calm in the sort of paints, a path forward to where we are today. They both grew up nerves Edwards, I would by the space programme and inspired by very speculative visions, of what. Civilizations future could look like among the stars, then is is young adults. They become part of the internet industry which was a time when the? U S, government was essentially commercializing what had been a defence technology and they grew

In this meal, you of venture capital of software and software engineering and the focus as as businesses on growth over profit Billy, and then they both in that way made fortunes in the ninety nineties the Amazon on one hand and pay pal on the other and then both of them after these initial successes, sat back as as wealthy people in both on parallel tracks came to the conclusion that the best thing they could do for society he was to lower the cost of going to space by designing reusable rockets and so for all their differences. As as business leaders, they have these things in common that have set them on the path. Creating these companies. I think it's fascinating. How a shorthand has emerged that there is a certain patriotism in involved in reducing the cost of spy.

Flight. When it sounds like, as I hear your description there, that at at the core of a lot of this, is just a it's something akin to a kind of a fantasy ambition of wanting to be part of that? Rand American project that you know we were all a part of in some ways we watch the Rockets lift off on tv in the Sixtys and Seventys. I've decided complicated. That may be slightly by saying that both of them cast their space. Hopes in the future of humanity writ large, they are both fairly patriotic, perhaps Jeff more than you on both really speak highly of the? U S, system that has allowed them to become wealthy and influential, but I think gay they see their space work as something bigger than than just defined by national borders. I think when you look at what motivates them?

both talk about a romantic vision. You're right, you on musk, is often quoted as saying you know, people need a reason to be excited to get up in the manner something to look forward to their assessed with frontiers, but they, they honestly believe the future of humanity writ large will be better if we can do more in space, and there are people who disagree with him about that. Obviously by I think it's really interesting. They both really believe that. But how would you characterize the relationship, I suppose you could say between these these to entrepreneurs. Well, I think they do have mutual respect for each other and they have both praise each other's companies when they have had a major space accomplishments of. But I think that today there are both very competitive people and I think both of them also because they see these projects as more important than just dollars, and since they want to be

of recognised as as doing good through gas, and so there is a rivalry to be seen as the person who is advancing Spain. More and more a breath it. What is interesting is that their rivalry was maybe at its our biggest earlier on when either company was doing that much when they were still designing or testing fighting over. You know different facilities. They wanted to lease from the U S, government, but as time has gone, We have actually achieved more him and I think they ve come to terms with how difficult their goals will be to achieve. I think there's become more of a grudging. Respect between the two but ultimately, where we really see them competing for government contracts, and that is, you know, no holds barred league. Combat to try and win billions and billions of dollars from the government, and so when those come up to play there,

no love lost between Spacex and blue origin. I am fascinated by the fact that, if any time you have people talking about the space race as it currently exists, You dont often hear the name richer. Branson mentioned irritation. Not that much, I suppose I should say, and yet virgin galactic still an ongoing concern. Yes, it is, you know, richer deserves a lot of credit for being a pioneer in the space sector. I think one of the reasons that maybe Branson Company, which is now publicly traded on the stock exchange, I should say virgin galactic doesnt. Quite get the attention is because they have set themselves a smaller goal of rocket. They can fly people, tourists up to the edge of space for about twenty minutes and bring them back again. That is a very hard thing to do. It turns out there still trying to do it by its

not maybe as exciting as visions of a city on Mars or thousands of people living in. You know a space station orbiting the moon, even though those are further away. You know we could see version galactic, start flank people into space regularly this year, that's just it was it is sought, is exciting, is going to the moon, but what's more realistic, sending people to the edge at that that edge of of space and earth zone atmosphere or or building colonies. On Mars, I mean which does sound far more fantastical words, anyone just the waiver, as you have to save more realistic, to send people the edges space we ve already seen it happen in two thousand for conversion. Galactic is as launched several successful flights, another they paying customers. Yet we also think the new Shepherd Blue origins

Little rocket will fly tourists this year, so that's coming. We ve already seen space tourism go up to the international space station before now, and I think it's important to remember that more so Jeff less so with you on when these guys talk about the really fantastic futures their imagining. You know you even will say I want to retire and the city on Mars and Jeff will say. I want my grandchildren to live, in orbit. All you know space station or something, and so you know they see themselves as taking first steps, and you know the tendency to over promise that attract attention that attracts financing body. It is important to remember that the reality is gonna, be as the origin puts the redoubt ferocity, which means ass steadily and ferociously moving forward

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was a lot of wild West attached to it and a lot of ugliness too, I mean ultimately as much good did. Nino can be attributed to the digital age. You can also talk about the negative repercussions, and I wondered TIM if it wouldn't be fair of us to look at the possible negative implications of this new space race. Absolutely, I think, as with any technology, the way humans put it to use can either be negative or positive when it comes to doing a cost benefit analysis of our spending on space, as isn't a nation or as a world. I think a lot of good benefit comes for. And of course, from a national point of View- U S- military and its ability to project power around the world is depended on space, and then there is also an economic point of view where having investment in high tech business in the? U S supports high salaries, economic growth and innovation. So there were plenty of arguments that the space sector is a

net benefit to humanity, but, as you say, we can ignore the possible negative repercussions and there are some in that's where I think people need to pay attention to this, because, even if you think you are musk streams of going to Mars or silly he's doing a lot of stuff that will affect people on earth and that we need to understand so beyond the benefits, a couple negative things that could happen. You know right now. Lowering the cost of access to space effectively means were launching a lot more satellites, a lot more spacecraft, alot more rockets, and that means a lot more jobs trash in orbit around the earth and up until pretty recently there weren't that many launches, most of them were government launches, and it wasn't that big, deal, but now, with private companies playing of an even bigger role and just so much more volume of stuff going up there. We need

better rules and best practices around disposing of space, junk cleaning up what people should be allowed to launch and because it's an international jurisdiction. There are real clear rules and there are real. Clear enforcement. Mechanisms. So we need to figure out space traffic management. So we don't see something like in the movies gravity, where you have just a wild storm of space to breeze trashing all the stuff we have up there, not only because it would be bad for potentially astronauts or people, but also because it would render potentially lower orbit unusable. So no more JP ass. No more! You know, tracking deforestation, I'm in emissions from space and no more exploration. It's it's interesting, because in a way this was like radio, the start of radio itself. We had so many signals out there. Nobody really knew how to police, and, as this is something that the Federal Trade Commission should be involved in, for example, mean in a sense

similar brought. Where do you put the their responsibility for this sort of stuff? But I want to get back to something that you mentioned about the GEO political consequences, because when you think theory just theoretically about this- We now have a private citizen with ostensibly the ability. Who colonise another planet and talking about doing just such a thing is: is there not a danger, both in terms precedent, individuals, basically putting their own jurists actions if you will in space but beyond that. Oh what could see say on other places. Other satellites like the moon, our own moon, where there has been talk about, say, to unite states having an ongoing base there as a sort of launch pad demarche? I am not so much worried about airlines plans to colonise Mars because for all of his innovation in his success

he still dependent on the. U S, government all of his rockets, to launch from U S military bases, and perhaps more importantly, the? U S. Government is responsible for anything. You want does under the main treaty that you in outer space treaty, that guy it's what nations can do in space. So I'm not worried about you off taking off to Mars and the rest of the world being upset about that worry about that fifteen years, but we can worry about more reasonably, are sort of repercussions from the cheaper cost of space access. The? U S, plan to return to the moon. One aspect of that plan is that were hiring private companies to send robots to the moon, to do reconnaissance effectively for future astronauts, but there are also going to collect samples of the lunar soil, basically back them up and leave them there.

NASA to pick up. This is gonna, be something NASA's. Gonna pay, for the reason the United States is doing is to set a precedent that a country can make an economic transaction in outer space check clearly the. U S will argue. This is within the realm of the? U N Outer Space treaty which says that you can't claim property on an astronomical body like the moon. But the? U S and say: well, if you take something like lunar soil, you can't say: that's your property and there was actually a law passed in twenty fifteen that applied this too asteroids is well now. This is us all pretty speculative cause. Companies were still getting the ability to do this, but U S has launched an international negotiation called the artemisia courts where it is trying to rally countries to agree to standards of behaviour in space for space to breeze, to avoid

interfering with exploration on the moon by some other Countries, are sceptical of this and see it as a? U S: power grab, not least of which are China and Russia. China, especially as the? U S biggest rival, in terms of actually being able to do stuff in space so. The fear that some theorists have is that this could be perceived Kind of a land grab in space that's what I'm telling you you could have country saying: oh gosh. We have to get up there to get chunk of the most important territory on the moon or the best asteroid, or maybe too satellite Lagrange point between the earth and the moon and say this is ours that would be a pretty This case scenario, you could imagine it being like these sort of colonial land grab in Africa, the proceeded world war- one it would be really Adam destabilizing, and so the the hope is that

the nations of the world and the United Nations will actually find it nickel process to find a consensus on what to do in space. You know thinking early on in the internet age? We were talking about players that we that you know not necessarily household names here in twenty twenty one anymore mean the founders of Netscape and Yahoo, and an end America online. If anyone remembers that these worthy basin and Elon musk of their time, at least in the popular machination now here we are talking about Jeff basis in Elon Musk, how unlikely, as it did, Acta or someone like him won't be doing per I see the same thing in the next sometime:

within the next four five six years is already happening when Spacex launch their falcon heavy rocket a few years ago, which is the biggest one they currently have. It was a big moment because it was the first time a private company and not a nation had developed a have you lived rocket itself in one of China's state. Newspapers wrote a story where they were like you know, It is not just competing with the: U S were competing with Spacex and we ve seen that chinese government basically give the go ahead to a bunch of entrepreneurs to start rocket companies. Now four or five and China. They have been doing launches. They ve been raising money from private investors and all all of them are very explicit and saying we want to be chinese space acts. We want to do what Ilan did it's interesting far and that a lot of the bigger chinese tech companies, the equivalence of your Facebook, Sir Amazon's or Google's, have not yet gotten into space activity. I think part

that is the chinese government has a little more control over this sector than we do in the? U S words, a little more of a free for all, but a big prediction that analyse our making as we are going to see the ten cents and waterways of the world start to look harder at space investment. Ultimately, the who is at this juncture, who is the winner in the space of the twenty first century. I would have to say that right now, the leader is is a lot in space acts. They are still doing the most innovative work and they are doing it across the most different areas in the space business, so their launching satellites, their building satellites, their lodging people their working for the government there working for private companies, the whole spectrum Jeff, is still

hang up with blue origin. He still doesn't haven't orbital rocket, he still not building satellites. He has a sub orbital rocket, that's fully reusable, which is really cool, but he still not quite competing directly against Spacex that may change, and twenty twenty one, which is when Jeff hopes debut the new Glenn, his very big, reusable rocket at blue origin and were also hoping to see Amazon start to launch their caper internet How do I get constellation? That's going to be a major part of the space business in the years ahead. You can read more about this subject in temper and holds his book rocket, billionaires, Elon, Musk, Jeff, Bezos and the new rights and, of course, any time over at courts where TIM writes about space and the economy temp thanks. So much for taking too to speak with its on business wars, its general, I urge you to get to say, hello, India, and to hear your perspectives and insight Thank you so much for having me

a series of business. Wars is just around the corner and it involves an industry today, valued at some fifty billion dollars field, where the disruptors, arms and the giants are, but a relative handful who maintain tight fisted control, for their valuable market, though few think of the cosmetics, industry is a rough and tumble place. Its origins are ethic and we're about to explore too of the modern day giants who helped make it what it is today, lorry out and as stay longer, the focus of the next series of business wars. You're gonna love it from wondering this is episode, seven of space ex versus blue origin for business wars. I'm your host David Brown Lorry Gallery approves this episode Karen Low is our senior producer and editor at it did and produced by Emily Frost Sound designed by Kyle random. Our associate producer is Kate young. Our executive producers are Jenny, lower back and Martial Louis created by or non Lopez or wondering.

Hi, I'm losing ground the host of wondering serious business movers where we die deep into the inner workings of some of the most successful companies of all time before they were renowned and revered. They were young upstart with big ideas and even bigger ambitions. But how did those ideas become reality? What was the one daring move, the change, the game. What was the decision? Their leaders feared making the most? How did any of these companies grow from a mere dream to a multi billion dollar corporation? Here stories behind the strategy, the scandal and a stunning triumphs. The first season features a name. That's been synonymous with the entertainment industry since the early twentieth century Walt Disney, learn how even when faced with nearly insurmountable obstacles and wide ranging scepticism Walt Disney remained true to his vision and brought his world a magic to life. Disney movers is available now on Apple podcast, Spotify or wherever you get. Your podcast starch or free trial of one replied in the one reactor was an early and ad free wondering, feel the story