« Coffee With Scott Adams

Episode 299 Scott Adams: Something Big Might be Happening in the Middle East

2018-11-13 | 🔗

Topics:

  • In the Man Cave‚ĶExplaining why something big might be happening in the Middle East
  • Your filter on reality should do two things:
    • 1. Make you happy
    • 2. Do a good job of predicting
  • Applying the persuasion filter to the Middle East
    • A chance for peace?

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The post Episode 299 Scott Adams: Something Big Might be Happening in the Middle East appeared first on Dilbert Blog.

This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
bom bom pom pom pom bump bump bump bump bom bom hey peter hey everybody come on in i am coming to you today from my man cave at dover central and i'm going to share with you all a thousand people do you have your beverage i'm doing afternoon coffee but some of you i know might be a little too late for coffee yeah but join me anyway and the simultaneous sip ah so if you've been following me for awhile and especially if you have read win bigly you know that i make a provocative claim the reality is somewhat subjective and we all
leverone filters or road movies going on in our heads and that's the only way you can tell which is the good version another is the movie that you should consider the real reality versus other people who were maybe hallucinating in a different way is whether or not your filter on reality does two things does it make you happy and does it do a good job of predicting so i've made so a number of notable predictions in the past to make the case that if you learn persuasion and you you're seeing the world as irrational people being persuaded as opposed to the filter in which you see people as you know rational players who look at facts and make decisions a very unhappy and you'll be very bad at predicting the future if you imagine people are smart and that they make rational
so compare my model where every it is irrational but persuasion is the main variable in the world in terms of human decision making so i'm going to talk about the middle east and i'm put the persuasion filter on it i want to make the case that there's something very special happening it might be an opening for something really good not for not very long from now in i'll go through this using persuasion as the main theme so we'll see it through that filter and i'll make a few the confessions right off the bat number one i don't know much about the middle east so i may have you spell things wrong i may be leaving out important countries i may have i forget which religion somebody's got so
with me here this is a work in progress as field i don't know anything about but i'm still going to put the persuade filter on and then make quasi prediction it's a little less than a prediction but maybe it's a sign of optimism and it goes like this i'm going to show you the the main architecture is happening right now and i left out a number of countries just because they're not relevant to the story i'm going to tell so it's not like in turkey or not important but for this story they don't have much of a plus or minus in terms of how they're going to influence things so let me go through this and show you how the elements of this complicated middle east architecture are by complete coincidence just starting to click into place to create an opportunity that maybe never been there before so
let me go through the argument and then once you've seen it all don't dwell too much at any part of it when i look at the big picture right this weird situation where this joe the guy was murdered in the apparently murdered the turkish embassy and this is going to a pressure on saudi arabia because they're being q is of doing this brutal murder that's very inappropriate now what's important is that they have this new crown prince prince solomon and he's a young guy he's very bold he's a he's willing to do things that other people want to done frankly so you've got first of all an opportunity and that he's personality who wants to do stuff right he's obviously an active ruler you just a change he wants to reform he wants to fix one saudi arabia to be important and then
the scandal happens and he gets pressure from the united states pressure from the rest of the world and now he other needs to do something big to secure his safety as a and credibility as the head of the country so he be able hold on to power no matter what but i have a feeling of saudi arabia is not a dictatorship like some places are but rather more like a corporation the family is a defacto border directores and they select a member of the family he was selected i have a feeling that he really needs to support within his own country to really remain the leader so there's a lot of pressure on this young guy who who apparently a lot of boldness and
is willing to be reform are willing to go where other people would not go so i'm just going to call that flexible his current flexible in a way that maybe we haven't seen before all right saudi arabia is in sort of proxy war with iran they're backing different sides in this yemen war the united cases recently decided to stop if you're willing or helping with the re feelings so we're putting pressure on saudi arabia to you know get something taken care of so looks like yemen because you know iran is getting bled dry now here's the important thing sam is getting poorer and probably at a rate that i've never seen before now keep in mind that direction of things is very important if you're a and the direction so that you can see forever is just things getting worse and they that's probably what they see right now if you stay the same for iran ran
just going to get worse forever so there have sort of a time constraint they need to do something they need to fix something they need to change something pretty soon so it's the soon this import so i think that iran has enough reasons to get out of this war saudi arabia has enough reasons with our pressure on them nobody really wants to be in a war anyway so there may be a she and this would be the key to the whole puzzle for these guys to stop being on the other side in the now the blue lines here are so with the political lines of influence and the usa is putting pressure on iran economically so recently we saw the egypt was uh just helpful in trying to broker a deal between hamas and israel so here's another key part the egypt
it is a helpful player that hamas is sort of in a position where they need something to go right so if some could be presented that made it look go win they're probably ready because things aren't getting better for them things not getting better for ran their sponsor it's got be tough be among us same time that israel is just getting longer on every dimension so if this rule is getting stronger everyday with really no end insight in it is getting weaker everyday with no inside that speak both of them be ready for something to happen so so you got productive people between two entities that have a reason to to work things out if only they could figure out how it's
is that how do you figure out how far to the hard part then of course you've got russia that you can count on to follow their self interest which is good because probably following their self interest means that they're not being dogmatic if there's a well to be had they might say yes if it's good for them and why wouldn't it be and then you've got this weird situation of a president trump who is a deal maker who probably go to places other people can't go you could probably threaten people more than people have been threatened you probably so why is people in ways i haven't been surprised he can shake the box in ways that has never been shaken so i want you to imagine following leaders in the same room just got a mental picture of this right just just for kicks bring them in the same room president trump i get that picture in your head potent
netanyahu right so now is trump putin and then you just picture and then um prince put 'em all room and now imagine them together could those four people work together yeah they could right just think of their personalities that's four people who could make a deal it and have an interest in making a deal they all have a great interest in making sure there's a stable region so we've never had four personalities like that that all capable of making a deal there all flexible they're all fairly pragmatics there they're more visionary than people before in lots of different ways so probably you have the right players for the first time you have
this external weird situation that causes more flexible than the normal got a ran the really needs to make something happen because it's only going in the wrong direction forever they must know that at some point and that is getting stronger which means that the sooner these guys settle the sooner they can at least make their own lives better his mother it's going to happen to israel it's just getting stronger and you've got egypt being helpful i'm sure jordan would be helpful turkey would probably play some rolled or other countries of money etcetera now anybody body who protects it's going to be a middle east peace in three months that would be a foolish project because it would be the one place that's hardest to imagine there could ever be peace but i'll make this one observation
it's possible that we've never been closer this be as close as you can get to an ideal setup where you can get something done now here's another concept that a president would understand that everybody would and something i've said before it's a concept of negotiating if you're ago she ate ng a small deal between two entities and you can't get the deal done there's just no way to make it that you can see sometimes it helps to add in new variables so you might be talking i'll pay you money for your product but you can't reach a price she had in something else all right i'll give you money and i'll help you advertise right so adding variables when you've got is a standoff is generally good so instead of looking at the middle east as something israel and hamas after work you have
i'm looking at the whole system and you produced this whole bunch of variables now what happens when you've got this many variables in your situation well in most cases in the normal world the more you complicate things the less likely it's going to work out if this were an engineering project you could say well that's the wrong direction if you add variables if you add specifications if you add complexity it's much worse keep it simple if you can but the very specific world of trying to reach a deal internationally it might actually be an advantage to add as many variables in here and try to get something that really just settles a lot of stuff at the same time it might it might go to where capitals are it might go to funding hammond might go to what's up with moss might go to security and my go to you know nuclear weapons just throw it all in there
now in a normal situation you would never get anybody to agree i have that many variables it would just be too hard to negotiate with that much stuff the only way that i could work is if you have some kind of leader who is tess and knows how to create people stories and of complicated situations somebody who could reach into the complexity fine and not only where the money matters but the emotions matter where people can be persuaded and where they can't where the complexity could be ignored even if it's important to get to where you need to go where you could be morally flexible where you need to to get to a greater good you would need somebody so unique the
sort of person could only come around once in a lifetime do you see it so you know i've laid it down here and you see the bright weird coincidence no not really anybody's great work or anything like that just by coincidence it looks to me a lot of stuff is lining up for exam who is the players who are important in this world yeah it somebody said in the comments jared so you is sort of the silent you know broker behind behind the curtain and he's obviously got you crazy good connections like it looks like he's a strong player who could make everything pulled together if anybody could i don't know if anybody could so i'm not going to say this is a prediction 'cause predict
peace in the middle east would be now the smartest thing anybody ever did right 'cause the odds are always against it only gonna say that we've never had this situation before this is special and maybe it matters all right i would love to hear your feedback on this tell me if you think this is crazy and if you could put a reason you know short reason now there that would be good you don't have to do details but you know give me a sense of what part of it you think is weak not crazy yeah it's not crazy right haven't accounted for china i don't know that i need to the oil price drop supports my abs innovation you're correct the drop in oil prices
makes everybody a little more flexible especially or i would think two is if one party to play the others that's that's the big risk of course crazy because the palestinians don't want to deal does anybody not want to deal you know here's the thing if if you thought israel was von pro bowl and that you really had an actual chance of destroying israel if you thought that was possible you might you might dig in and do everything you could you know sacrifices you know live live in bad conditions take risks you do whatever you can if is your religion or your cultural beliefs that you had to destroy israel but at some point no matter how much you want to destroy israel
you're going to realize that they're getting more powerful everyday time is not on your side and you're not getting closer to destroying them you're getting further away so there's a point where you realize it just can't happen so what you're doing if you're among us and with the leaders over there you're killing your pull you're living in poverty and you don't have any chance just no chance of realistically getting what you think you want which is some guy revenger taking over israel or or wiping them out or whatever it is you that you think you want to do so i think we're there with a little bit of pressure now one of the is that i talk to you about all the time is that sometimes in order to make a deal both guys have to have a story they can tell their own people in which they the winners so the ideal situation is that bowl side can tell their side why they are the winners
n korea that situation is shaping up kim can tell as people hey i'm unifying the north korea my nukes work out for me because it got me all these concessions so he's gotta we of course have our story which is no more nukes in north korea right so everybody have a whim i think what's been lacking with hamas as they didn't have a way to win there was there was no way to spin this thing into a victory and he here's what i would suggest if a man is part of a larger picture for something really good in the middle east and it's time to specific economic benefits suddenly they have something second shape as a whim and that wind might be let's say access the holy sites or who is in charge of holy sites you might say well we got that it's a good thing we put that pressure on israel maybe it's
something about travel or water rights maybe it's about economic to and from other countries maybe saudi arabia so you can managing a whole bunch of variables going in in which at least the leaders of a moss can say this would be good for our people or there's enough money to bribe them or kill them or coerce them because if you've got if you've got all of the other countries saying all right the only thing stopping us is but it doesn't have you leaders in a mass this the thing the stopping the entire been leased from having some stability it's like twelve guys you twelve guys i'm pretty sure if every country in the world one of them to cooperate they could find a way all right because the muscles no nuclear weapons
so i'm not talking about militarily but they could be bribed they could be convinced you know they could be patriots for their country and just take the best deal they can get um i must needs a leader that can declare victory right and it does seem to me that they could declare some form of victory in some why there's there have to be enough variables where they can walk off say look what i did this is way better all right i'm just looking here come text now comments would bolton be on board well the beauty of the complexity if you keep it complicated is that
everybody has a reason like it and everybody has a reason to not like it that's what complexity gives you that allows everybody to see their own movie so if you need everybody to see their own movie this is a way to do it just grow enough stuff in there that nobody really understands what's going on and in that world a president trump is the most influential voice because he operates in that world people are confused and overwhelmed and there's too much complexity and he'll boil it down to its simplest element and sell the crap out of it i'm going to end here keep it short thanks for me in my man cave one more simultaneous up afternoon coffee join me for a toast and now have a good night
Transcript generated on 2019-11-11.