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Episode 904 Scott Adams: Today I Blow Your Mind. Goes Well With Coffee

2020-04-10 | 🔗

My new book LOSERTHINK, available now on Amazon https://tinyurl.com/rqmjc2a

Content:

  • Population density and herd immunity
  • A gigantic range of uncertainty and models
  • Differences between states
  • The status of hydroxychloroquine testing?

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The post Episode 904 Scott Adams: Today I Blow Your Mind. Goes Well With Coffee appeared first on Scott Adams' Blog.

This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
Bump bump bump bump bump bump bump bump bump bump bump on the k everybody trodden style for coffee was got elms, and some of these have been. You came to the right place because, if you like to enjoy, the simultaneous of all you need is a cover. My your glass integrity ulcers die the canteen jirga flask of vessel of any kind and fill it with a vivid liquid. I like coffee enjoyment. Of the unparalleled pleasure, the dopamine it'll day, the thing that makes everything better, including pandemics, scald the simultaneous go extra relaxed rooted tonight. Well, let's talk
stuff number one: how in the world is our government going to reopen the economy a rational way without telling overweight people to stay on. How does it work because It would be easy if the governments today, if you have one of these health conditions, you know you're the sale of diabetes or asthma. You should stay home for a few months and I would be in their category and I'd, say. Ok, that's pretty objective seems fair. Based on data. I think I'll stay home. But what happens if the government says if you're fat you ought to stay home, you can go to work, I mean you could but would be bad for the country. If you didn't, because your weight
would make you extra likely to end up in the icy you, which would be a problem for our health care system. So please, if here overweight, Don't go to work. It's a real question, though, and say this to be funny. I dont know how a country tells people to stay home if there are overweight and if they don't Yes, if, whatever real guidelines command of the next phase assuming that the guidelines were going back to work. Whenever that happens, will be some, The vague filtered system works not everybody. It's the people were safe. How are you to tell fat people not to go to work? I mean seriously. How are you gonna do that. I'm not joking, I'm not making funds available for their weight. I don't do that.
I'm just saying: how do you do that? Just from a policy practical perspective under no? How now that's gonna work. I also talked about the models. Everybody was stuck talk about models that are so darn wrong. So let me ask you this too little math What percentage of the total population of the country is New York City? Why are the answer? It's about two point. Six percent of the whole country Now, just talking about Roma population serve the A country in New York City is two point: six percent of all the people. So what would happen if the rest of the country experienced infection rates like New York now I'll get to the point where you say there is a different density in dress. The countries different all address that, but just thus do the math first and then will address adjusted.
So if the rest of the country got infections, let's say in the same ratio as New York we- I not saying they just bear with me until I make my larger point, but if they did. How many people would die in the whole country is if the whole country became similar to New York City- and I know you think- that's not good comparison and I'll get to that. Just hold hold that complete for a moment so just doing the math. If New York City has over seven thousand deaths as of today. And their one. Thirty is as a whole country, then, if not, or country went away. New York city is gone. How many people die in the answers? Thirty eight times, A little over seven thousand people, and that would. Like a national death rate of two hundred and sixty nine thousand people should have the right.
So? The country goes away, New York City goes So you will? Just just for sizing things I get to the point, it will be. Over a quarter of a million people die. You call that a big problem right, now. I know you that, actually you say as but Scouts Gus got New York City s or travel as war density. They gonna later start Celeste calculate that Alan. What I'd like to compare is a mitigation, the mitigation strategy verses, none! The New York City is interesting because they are fully mitigated or close to it, but they got kind of late start. So you can see the New York City is fully mitigated. You can say it's got a lay start, but then it did a good job losses partially mitigated half half mitigated something like that.
So the seven thousand ass, if they had not mitigated, we all agree will be met. Higher right. But we don't know how much I wouldn't be double. Would it be? Ten thousand, let's say, was double Let's say the problem in New York City would be double twice as many people dying. If they did. No medication is affair. Where would you say double because the medication is pre extremists cutting? The whole economy, basically, so I was a double seems There were just sizing things right and I say less accurate, just assizes, so if the rest of the country went like New York City and if New York City? They had not mitigated what would it look like, and I think that first coming out of New York City, suggest that it would be about the half. A million people or more would die if we did
the gate and it looked allow light dear. So you, but then you say: ok, but now you get to the good part Scott. Say the rest of the cities. The rest, a country is not at all like New York City. So, first of all there is no density. Doesn't matter it doesn't. Do you get why it doesnt matter? The New York City is dense and the other one step Even though the density of course makes a big difference in how many people spread it right, here's why? Because the time if you're, not mitigating the rest of the country, has time to just as in fact it as the people in the elevators in New York City. In theory, nobody mitigated. It will go like this. New York City would very quickly get infected closer and more density. Travel and elevators Norman stuff subways
so near city would quickly get to let's say sixty percent infection at which point a little bit. Heard immunity would start taking in. And then the virus which are slowing down for so many people have been infected that you couldn't necessarily spread. It is easily you'd be running into people work Admittedly, some New York City would rather quickly get to hurt immunity, but at the cost of tens of thousands of deaths, a smaller place with less with less density, would still get to sixty percent it just would take longer, but remember in both cases there is no mitigation happening so the underlines place will still get to sixty percent in just might take a month instead of a week so you pair a very near cities, outcome to a less thence place. I would say that,
differences, how long it takes to get to her immunity but they're both gathered. I will just be a difference of weeks firstly, so I think that you could say Emily people have died in New York City that the risk Not mitigating was problem somewhere. In the half, a million range half a billion people dead. Now. The people are saying that this is still flew like levels of death. How do you explain the fact that their doing mass burials and in the park in New York City have we ever had to do mass burials, In the park, because the flu are you still now ready to admit, there's something different about this: one is little extra deadly
I this example last night, but I'd like to do it again, which is there to ways of the virus can get you one is if its extra deadly but the others. If its extra viral because of its extra viral, but especially deadly is still gonna kill a lot of people. Could somebody people get it that even if a low percentage die so many people have There's a lot of people dying compared to one is really extra deadly, but it doesnt travel very far because the the host die so quickly. Where you can still get up to a lotta des because they die soon as I get it. So there two ways extra viral or extra deadly sure, you're you're really bad situations, but there's one is worse than all of them. What happens if its extra viral and extra deadly? What do you do
well, that's. It leaves the possibility that was presented earlier when, when our experts will, China correct me if I'm wrong, but one firstly to China. We didn't have good data and we're just sort of surveying and not believing what they're telling us. It did not look like this might be the blacklist of all black swans and the one that would be extra viral and extra deadly No, I don't think it's going to turn out that way. As more information comes at night, I think is going to be extra viral, but not accidentally still very dangerous, but probably lots of people didn't get a problem with it. Yes, the experts were looking into this fog of war and thought weak, yet rule out that this is the worst of the worst kind extra viral, an extra deadly cause, it sort of lookin like
yeah we're watching them, That's not normal they're, not acting like it's some kind of normal thing. So was it reasonable for our experts to say you shut down the country because don't know yet. But whatever is happening in China. That might be, viral and extra, and we ve never seen one of those that that could be like the big one. I don't blame the experts for being extra cautious. If that's, if it turns out that that's what happened, they were extra costs Because there were unknowns answer There was a list he's, in the belief that this was the big one, even if it turns out it s, not but even if, as the big one, let's say, the big one would have killed tens of millions of people. I think this one would be without mitigation, maybe half a million people in it and that's just multiplying New York cities.
Population by the rest of the country and making the assumption that New York City would get it faster But if you didn't do any investigation friendlier here, the whole country would have the same rate of infection eventually. So what about the complaints that the models completely broken and corrupt and wrong and all the wrong decisions, because the models were so flawed, What the people getting a lot of attention for that point of view is extremely urgent, writer Alex burdensome number of you ask me? What about that? Guy? That using. What are you saying that either we ve made this drastic change to shut down the economy, but based on modeling that doesn't line up with the realities?
so you say that the models that are not showing to be correct and therefore was a giant mistake to use the models to make decisions but here's what they'll experiencing in almost all of the rest of the public does not understand unless they watch me last night in my periscope prediction, models are not designed to predict anything. If you thought they were? You would agree with Alex burdensome in you. I agree with all the people said: hey you predicted would be this. It's way off You ve already changed your per eve, change your protection from a hundred thousand worst case to sixty thou and those are not really that close therefore? Your mama was always wrong, then you have proved it by by changing so much all the way down to the sixty thousand. This obvious right
If you set a hundred thousand, but now you ve been revised as sixty Clearly the hundred thousand was totally wrong right. Sixty thousand another thousand are not really very close common sense right wrong in their watch me blow your mind, so little thing called context. So when we saw the original estimates there was Curve the said, if you do know mitigation a million at one point was a model, this two million, but I think we fairly quickly got to million people dying at the high end in the United States. The low number with navigation was thousand originally not originally, but for a while. And then more recently adopted sixty thousand here's the context you're missing. If you consider the gigantic range of uncertainty,.
In sixteen thousand, a hundred thousand really different, really isn't there practically the same number if you consider the wide range now I get that both of these are medication, but do you think, there's any body in the world who knows how to model mitigation in the United States never been done? How could you possibly model, mitigation? You don't know how. Well people are going to do it, you don't know you of its different in different places. You don't know, there's a cultural problem, you don't know people keep with it. Author washing their hands to me? How can you possibly model this? I mean seriously. If you can get this close, with mitigation and say look we say be a hundred thousand, but you came out of sixty thousand is that is at stake now,
if you ve done modeling for a living as I have. By the way ask anybody else who do who's ever done, modeling for a living. If this were the outcome you'd per day, did a hundred at the lower end, but we did good mitigation and came in his sixty. Would you tell your boss that you missed it. You were completely wrong and I quit because it so embarrassing, I was so far off. Now you would go in Tell your boss, you needed a raise. Because out of all these possibilities, you said with mitigation, we're gonna be about here and you got pretty darn close. You got pretty clothes I call that a home run that is as good as a model can be. Here's, here's the the kills on my point
nobody in the world can predict the future with Complicated model with lots of variables during the of war now you can sometimes predict how things will go if the thing it's gonna happen is varies very similar to a thing that happened before and the thing that happened before and before so These examples say you re a home builder, and you build one arm is out cost me this much per square foot, then though the second one is a different home, but the square footage comes out about the same cost, and then you build the third one. Do you think you can make a good estimate of your square foolish cost from the third one? The answer is probably you'd have you'd have.
Terrible things. You could look at so yeah. It's a lot like those other one saw use the same process here you can get pretty close, but if you're in the fog of war, let's say the first week of the Iraq war in the first week, the Iraq war? Were there any bottlers who could put in their variables Tell you how I was all gonna come out of course, that of course, in the fog of worry, you can't make any kind of a model. There predict the future. That's not a thing nobody's ever been able to do that. There's no model that can do that. There's no model little ever be able to do. That is not logically possible and If you are still wondering if there are some people who can make models and predict the future ETA, a chaos, you think those people exist here say you could spot. The mistake
this. They will be living on their trillion dollar yachts. If anybody could build a model. To accurately or even more accurate than randomness predict the future based on the chaos, the fog of war of any situation withers this one or some other. If anybody could do that, they would be a trillion here, because it is something that can be done. So, if you Scott you're production model was wrong because it was not accurate that I say to you, hey you,
barely you dollar production models. Does you thought it was for predicting? It isn't the reason it's not designed to protect its cause. It can't it's not a thing. It's just. Not a thing you can do was not a thing. By analogy, doesn't know you like in Algiers, I do the sometimes just to annoy. If you had a bicycle anymore, bicycle could not fly it can only you can only pedal on the ground. Would you say that bicycles, broken the bicycle is a piece of garbage because a care fly now. You know you'd say all that doesn't make sense. Not evaluating it as an airplane, bicycles and to peddle road source evaluated for peddling Road ok, looks pretty girl. If you look at it that way. So if at these models
the virus miles, and you say to yourself: hey these models. Are all broken and defective because they did not predict the future accurately Then you don't understand what a models costs are they're, not designed to predict the future. They can't it's not a thing nobody would try to design a model to predict the future, because you know in advance is not a thing: it's not a thing so you're, so you're wondering or wise everybody. Like. It is a thing I mean literally, everybody does acting like them, All should have told us what the future looks like and they didn. Some who suttons raw right now, models are not intended to predict the future. Here's what therefore persuasion and roughs,
icing over problem? Did the models roughly size, the problem in and here the I can be very approximate because all you're trying to do is to persuade people to act differently to get their number lower so did its size, the problem as a big old problem that you should treat as a special problem. Yes, the New York City numbers seem to indicate that the degree of panic about this was probably well warranted, because even where's mitigation. Seven thousand people, and if you instead, that the whole country and imagined no mitigation could be half a billion people just based on what we do now. So, who wasn't appropriate to use production models to persuade us to act differently?
And also sized it as a bigger problem that we don't know if it's a million or hundred thousand, but let me tell you it's a bigger problem. If you don't do anything about it, I would say the models not only were useful and good, but some of the best of all time. Because missing the bottom number by that little, when you did mitigation, is pretty darn good. And if you did what it was supposed to do, which is persuaded stack differently, did it do that yeah those models, persuaded me a better persuaded. Mostly, you too, and did a size, the general? size? I think he s now you're your critics will say no that's exactly the problem. It did not size the problem correctly amidst the size of the problem by a mile. Did it
does that doesn't look like a mile to me that looks Of all the possibilities and, of course, that's mitigation, no medication, verse mitigation, but if you can come back clothes with this level of uncertainty, I'm pretty impressed, I'm totally oppressed This would be a world class if it turns out that safety is a real number actually think he's gonna be lower. If it goes and authority, then I'm going to join the chorus of people saying these bottles, maybe not as helpful as they could have been, but a sixty sort of around here somebody says wrong. Obviously your new here what happens when people just use the one word wrong.
That's what happens? That's one way to learn learning at the hardware. Somebody says there is no proof that lives were saved right so through. So let's take that point, I think that point agrees with a lot of people, because the point is: can you demonstrate that what we did actually save lives like? How would you know well, here's what I would like to. I would look to priory every year before in New York City. Can you list for me, a number of years that they had to do mass outdoor burials because they had too many corpses.
Can somebody is historian? Tell me when was the last time we had so many corpses in New York City that they had to use bulldozers to make a trench to temporarily bury them in the park. If that's never happened before, would you agree with me something different is happening in New York, because if you don't. That part. Nothing else makes sense that in New York City, because there. Little literally on the mitigation that thither bearing people in mass graves that doesn't look like there's a big problem. So anybody who says that the models are are out of work with what were actually observing the snow and ice To me. I see them. The model said: there's a really big problem.
Where we want to persuade you to act differently if you're, burying people in mass graves in just the the first state there was a little late and the mitigation I feel Like they were right, that was a big big potential problem though we may have done heroic job at a decreasing and either I've always been on the side. The says the human ingenuity once we're all focused on the same problem as we are, is hard to predict and its also one reason. A prediction models are used because the human ingenuity care be predicted, you just know it's gonna, be probably surprisingly good, but you don't know how. Somebody so still hasn't happened. What has happened there, burying people in the park right now? They are pictures of him- so he says I saw a trench now sure they're really going to borrow very bodies there.
I saw the bodies in the trench in containers, but did I see, did I see a fake picture of an italian hospital, but this morning I did see aerial picture of the trench with what looked to be temporary caskets sort of pine boxes shortly. The solutions that is now fully correct, that is, where we have done the unclaimed body burials for years. Well, I don't think we're talking about unclaimed bodies. If that were the case, scouts guys got big. Cities have mass graves regularly, remark, is full of unclaimed bodies would hear point being the New York City is not experiencing in an unusual number of deaths. Is that something that you and I could just check, do you think that the
The mayor of city and the governor of the York dont know, but you do, but you know it, but the governor of the state, the mayor of New York City, they don't know that the number of deaths is just the normal number is. Is that your point of view that the mayor has noticed- and you just thinks there's a lot of desperate is Just- is counting Iraq really really is how you think somebody says its effect picture can be if a picture. So let me say this: southern some people are doubting the number of deaths, if you were during the number does, do you believe that there are seven thousand ass there although they had co morbidity, is in many cases they probably wouldn't have been dying this week. You're were these weeks just because they had
Maybe these many of them we're going to die this week. So so, let's put it on the facts I must say that we, you and I don't have to decide right now whether New York City is experiencing an unusual number of deaths. Let's just let's just look it up. Look it up if it turns out if it turns out New York city is experiencing a normal amount of death for this period, while then I'd say you're, probably quite right, you're quite But if it turns out that there are experiencing an unusual number of death even after, we're not getting any deaths from traffic accidents?
even after all the normal sporty accidents and things that normally would fill your hospital even after you take them out if we still have to bury people in mass graves and refrigerated trucks in New York City as telling us something right. So we are also looking at the differences between states. There. So many variables seem to go into determining whether theirs I death rate or not, or high inflation rate a few that I haven't seen talked about as much, and so let me mention them there. Of course, California has probably lower density, so that might make a difference with New York.
We were very international state, but probably nothing is as international was near city. I would guess so as as as connect the rest of the world. Those California is probably there's nothing like New York City, so that would be one difference. Airports Your elevators and people are people commuting in cars by themselves and soft so little out of deference in California, but somebody said that oh then, but I also wanted to add this to the mix. I think California has one of the lowest rates of obesity and cigarette smoking. I think, we're in the top ten percent of thinnest people, so
If all you do is compare in New York City to California, would there be a difference? In average, wait Newark cities actually can within a thin cities other rules that will hold up. But if you look at the country in general, California or waiter, I mean a lot better if you ve ever travelled from, let's say you're taking a flight and you have a lay over in Dallas you're walking around in the airport. Looking at the people, And then you lead in LOS Angeles, Alex and then you walk around and look at the people they dont. Look the same. Any delay you'd have to look pretty hard to find anybody was overweight. It's actually kind of rare at the airport because at the airport is higher income, people, the the
Some people have a lot more way problem, but if you're Dallas you walk out and the airport is, seventy, five percent of people are overweight. So we should look at that the weight of different states. I should be factor And smoking rates should be factor, and somebody pointed out on Twitter. The Colorado, also as their having some problems. And so it might not just be weight because Colorado, Colorado, win People in Colorado, or are also not overweight,. But they are having a high problem with infections, death, and so I looked up their humidity letters out, the Colorado has very low humidity, which is one of the variables cause you to have more infections, so California, relatively irey, humidity than Colorado. So I'm wondering if were coming to the point where we can identify, I seven
different variables that are the most important ones That would explain everything were seeing in the different death rates, so Got your age and co morbidity is a living in the same households and. What's the humidity weight racing smoking all those things, So it is a question I asked yes vessel Ebeneezer somebody suggested Sweden. In the same way that I'm saying that New York City might tell us a little bit about what the rest of the country could have look like. If we act differently, there must be some country that would make a good reference point for us, so I believe- For a country that did everything that we did except for mitigation, so if you can find,
something that vat on all the other variables that sort of similar to us, but they did no mitigation whatsoever. I mean no yet nobody occasion so no masks and no social isolation and then let them run for a while. So the yoke is they're getting infected at different timing, but at the end of the run, could we look at arrow, Sweden, for example, and say: ok, Sweden is the model for if we are not mitigated, that's it would look like what Arabin in Sweden Can somebody? Can somebody give me an example of what country we should agree today will be in the future? The boy we with the one we compare ourselves too
Somebody do that. Somebody says Euro DES Maui. Well, now is a special case. You have two people, and now we are just there from the two weeks, so they go home today. I think. New York city, there says part burials is fake news procedure, then I've so there, which is easy to believe by the way. It would be easy for me to believe that the part, where This is fake news. I don't know if that's true, but it doesn't change anything. I said because the right, a number of dead is the only one that matters it doesn't matter where you put them. If there were a lot of them, there are a lot of them, no matter where they go some so before us aims. Win. People say Norway, I dont know, did Sweden do mitigation? Did they do masks.
Somebody says the average rate of a female in New York is a hundred and fifty, but there lay it's more than fifty six interesting. That's an average. The obesity level, though for California, is actually love. Recent report marijuana causes bronchitis inflammation and that's the way case where the virus can be somebody says, was really didn't. Australia do some mitigation, some like that. New York is analogous to ITALY, while I don't know if it is used.
We had some seriously unhealthy people. I don't know what the obesity rate is for ITALY will why don't we find it necessary Google, obesity rate for ITALY? I found this on the web for Obese, how do you basically rate in ITALY looks, its consider mild compared to its neighbours to Europe. Oh european obesity is one of the highest that, So ITALY, ITALY is not
we should really worse than other european countries, but apparently the european countries are over. A third of them are of these in childhood, Sweden s low density, forty percent working on anyway. Ventilators are making it worse. Somebody say in the comments ventilators or make it worse. I don't know that true, but I did see a. A video or an article by a doctor who put people on ventilators.
And the doktor was speculating that if we have slightly misdiagnosed the problem- and that may be the problem happens in the blood, not lungs, and then the lungs or more thee, the the result of the blood not doing its job, which would have implications for how you treated the. Why the implications is that if the problem is in the lungs, then eventually make sense. But if the problem was in the blood the blood cell, to be able to carry enough oxygen because of the fire, then putting the ventilator in the lungs and treating it as though it's a lung problem would cause you to set the ventilator settings at the wrong setting cuz you'd misdiagnosed what's going on, and then the ventilator would cause more problems than it would help.
At least it would cause damage, even if it was hoping. So there is at least some speculation from a doctor who does ventilators and as a theory, but still speculation at this point that the ventilators might actually be. Worse now I saw I heard a statistic that needs to be checked so yesterday somebody said something about. Maybe was just New York City that forty percent of the ventilator patients coming off the ventilator, which seemed to me, so I need a fact check on this, because my understanding was that once you got ventilator it didn't matter what the reason was. By the time you get other ventilator, your odds of ever getting off it and improving and just having a full recovery? I thought I was lucky like in the ten percent rate.
But then I heard that the New York City experience, I think, was near silly. I need a factor that was something like forty percent of people getting off ventilators now. Could it be that one of the things that the emergency health care people are learning they have to adjust the ventilator settings differently. So could be that on day one people were not doing so well on ventilators, because maybe they're the settings wrong there a lot of love in different ways. You can set them for how much pressure puts so it could be that they figured out how to fine tune the ventilators to get the benefits without without having too much pressure and causing. So in problems Doktor Shiva says I high doses of vitamin c drip may not require innovation. Is that the thing you want me to comment on, because I carefully comment on a medical claim,
so, if the claim is that day, vitamin c drip can do that. I would hope somebody's looking into their right now. But I don't have a comment about whether this children false outcome, Somebody asked me: why does the India seems to have relatively low infections? I can think of two reasons. One they don't know is infected Howard. Is it to find out if somebody has grown a virus? If there is some small village in India I mean was What's the healthcare look like outside of the natural areas? So I don't? I don't know if anybody knows what's infection rates, or even the death rate is in India. I don't know how well they can report that stuff, given the size of their size and the level of poverty in everything else, but there's also speculation.
The college speculation that India being a major producer of Hydroxyl Clark when I think their number one producer or the number one source for the United States for that drug There's thought that these the citizens are either many of them are already on it because of malaria or could easily get it and that maybe that's part of the reason that it doesn't look like it's as big a problem. There. Ventilators, can't be used if the lungs are too filled with fluid so base as well. I don't know All I can say for sure is that there seems to be some reason to believe that if you don't have the ventilator at the re settings, it could do more harm than good. So maybe we discuss smarter about the settings that would make sense. Somebody says vitamin c is not a cure fools well
I certainly would not be saying vitamin c is a cure, and I doubt that Doctor Shiva saying as a cure, if it's, the claim that I saw in the comments is correct. It's a very limited claim that it can keep you off the ventilator honoured authors, any studies to show that I have no idea: why does Russia have a low inflation rate, while I wouldn't trust in numbers and Russia will do the same thing in the only as a billion people s shop said we eventually ears, but not enough called find people yeah, that that is a problem. I did hear from a ventilator expert once on Twitter, so it's him take that with a grain of salt. And the ventilator guy said that if you wanted to go to school, to be
and later operator technician, whatever the called it might take a few years, the school. But if you wanted to quickly trail essay, somebody was already a nurse, so they had some background and in health. Since you took a nurse and tried to say, ok emergency, I'm gonna try to train you as quickly as possible. Just for these. Just for this one type, a machine use your hospital just for a quota virus patients as the one person who is an expert in said. Okay, if you live in it to that, and you start with a nurse whose GSM general background, and you stick with one machine, and you tell him just how to use it for this one problem: you can probably train people up pretty quickly. I don't know if it's being, if it's happening, Vitamin d is more importance as someone I think, we're all in the same boat. These are all claims which have some.
They have some reason to think you'd want to know more about it, but we don't. Say that something is not a cure because it doesn't cure. A hundred per cent is loser. Think sense that is well true, except for the word cure does does imply that it works This does so like a very similar condition to high altitude. Would it be a coincidence that the high altitude places like.
Colorado have problems, I don't throw some low out to do places at problems to is mixing Mexico City making mass graves or not. I don't know anything about that. Somebody says their wife isn't training for the ventilators but has made use of them yeah. I think that would be common. Yeah so obscene Bayview kind of thing in the thing I just mentioned, so they wouldn't. There is some thought, that's on proving that the problem happens in the blood and that's why the Hydroxychloroquine works, because the way it works against malaria isn't it. It works in the blood and loves.
I thought the need for ventilators is down. That is correct. My hypothesis is that the need for ventilators is down because Hydroxyl clerk wiener, maybe somebody else- is working. That is my hypothesis we'll find out later Mexico City as nine million people more than New York City. So you have to be careful about the timing of stuff does if new, if Mexico City is, is just starting to get infected we'll see because there I would think Mexico cities in the worst possible situation right.
Instances polluted healthcare is probably not as good as it could be. Why don't? We have solid data on high drugs chloroprene treat me yet. That's a really good question and I dont understand that either because correct me, if I'm wrong the whole point of Hydra Secure is that you would see a big difference after five days of using it or it doesn't work. Isn't that the claim the claim is that you'll see a difference in five days or doesn't work? How many five day periods have passed since we first Sir Jack Stewart Clark, we might might be worth looking into quite a few right. How long does it take to put together a study? I know I think the problem is trying to put together a study in which you have
control group, because you have to take people who willingly don't worry, less, take the chance if they get the placebo when they have a strong suspicion that I just work with my work. Ass. I d get so many people to take the policy both or at least take a fifty percent chance of getting a placebo if they don't have to. Maybe it is hard to make a study, but do you need a study? Or could you just say I my hospital, traded for older people to other two hundred other guy Jackson, clerk win and another. That's leaders, but the other group, even though, is not a controlled study, There were two hundred of them and eight of an amended up on ventilators what Do you feel like that? Would tell you a lot? Don't you feel like? If you, Sir, the results of four hundred people in hospital,
settings and you knew the two hundred of them were treated kind of early with Hydroxyl clerk weight in the other two hundred never got it What do you think that will tell you? Because if you can't tell with if you can tell the difference we just year, two hundred or for older people is probably thou Workin and if it didn't work, it would not be validating the claims that you see in a, in other words, that the claims that people are making just the first person, nay I took it. Drug and I got better the claim they all make is that it obviously made a difference. It was fast, it was obvious and the people say it or quite convinced. It wasn't gonna happen on the seventh because taking the door, sort of marked. It was too conveniently barked the time that there are improvements started after worsening for ten days.
But that doesn't mean the right- could be that the people who don't better, don't go on tv and make social media posts. So we just don't hear from the rule that out. Somebody says they think Dr Drew said. The only way to get the address chloroprene was too and role in the study. That's what they try to make you do. I believe that they try to get you into a study if you s for it or your kids for it, but you don't have to be in the study. You can make a case that you're not a good candidates from the study, for example, I have asthma, so I would say to my doctor. Yes thank you for offering me the study. But I have asthma and if there is any chance that drugs are chloroprene works, I dont want to get into a study where I have a fifty percent chance of getting a placebo, so
In my case doctor you and I, as we say here in this room together and calculate the odds, don't you think you should just give it to me, because I've got as well and you don't want to want me they get it and then not have access to drugs. So you can talk here, doc doktor into it, but you gotta, be able to make your case in your case has to include there's a reason I should not be in the study. No part of the reason could be you care comply with the study. You know you're too busy. I kiss utterly bright, cope. Lots of reasons you couldn't be in the study, so there is a way to get it. I think that's just about somebody says: look for a job to announce it. Some study results today. He thou until we have the study results that are an actual controlled study with a group. They didn't get it at all and are scientifically selected to be,
a representative and all that until we have that we're not gonna know, but.
Smaller studies that don't have a proper control group. I think if the drug works is just gonna be obvious and if it doesn't work properly, that would be obvious to the others, financial disinterest in the former companies, because it's not banded, but I still think that the companies that make it are pretty darn happy this year. You saw a lot of it. How did they ask you to be the study if your own ventilator? I don't think they ask those people. I would not want to be Scots doctor you're, so right you so right in in my lifetime. I can tell you that I have. I have overridden the advice of my doctor. Quite a few times
But in conversation with them, not not just by myself, went home and ignore my doctor, but there have been quite a few times if you look at my entire lifetime were a doctor said, try acts and, I would say well I always end, but considering. Why is he q? Maybe we'll try something else, and I can tell you that I've talked my doctor into sight a number of times and to say again, you know when you put it that way. All things considered, I was just give it a try. Your way, in fact, I just recently to them, and just recently dealing with my sinuses there were to pass I can t say: let's take this one, and I said you know, there's one the thing we haven't tried that is low risk probably won't work.
Haven't haven't rather yet and it's easier than surgery, and my auntie said you no good point I don't think this new thing or ninety percent chance allowed by your rights if there's a ten percent chance than they can avoid surgery, yeah, guy and dried, if, if you're willing to take a few more months and try it glad, that's it, that's a good risk. That is a perfect example of where working with my doctor and really just talking about the odds and also I'm willing to do, which is the part the doktor can't know the doktor doesn't know your head that matters to write? So yes on quite a number times, including recently I have over I've overridden by doctors. Recommendation. And then my doctor agreed with me you and once I made my cases very normal thing. Likewise, with lawyers.
I've a dealt with a lot of lawyers, Mylife trust me be a cartoonist means a lot of lawyers for every different element of. Work, and how often, if I will say objected to the advice of ere. It said I hear what you say and but have you considered? this argument, and then I talk my Are you out of whatever the original recommendation was? How often does happen alive. I don't even know how many times is actually common, it's quite common. Sometimes you just have some inside about how you respond to things that a lawyer can have. Sometimes your priorities are different. Your risk reward ratio is different. Your tolerance for risk, your intuition about something you're, social preference, for something So yeah, I thought my lawyers at least of all the time as it is.
Let me ask not once I told my doctors other stuff all the time as it ever been: Mimi S no ones. Because I always get the lawyer and the doktor to agree before I do it. I always make sure that I've tested my argument. I don't just go up, go rogue and screw. You will make my own decisions, but yeah. You can talk here. Professionals and stuff. If you have a good arguments, is gonna farrago hats off now I will talk to you tonight. You know where to find me.
Transcript generated on 2020-04-16.