« Commentary Magazine Podcast

Biden's Firewall Holds

2020-03-02 | 🔗
Joe Biden resoundingly defeated all his opponents in South Carolina by substantial margins, and his campaign is enjoying renewed signs of life. But Bernie Sanders remains the favorite in many of the states that will vote this week. Can Biden emerge the last anti-Bernie candidate in the race after Tuesday? Also, the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on the markets and American politics.
This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
Welcome to the commentary magazine pack has today is Monday March. Second, twenty twenty. I am John Paul words. The editor of Commentary magazine, seventy five year old monthly of intellectual analysis, political probity, cultural criticism. From a conservative perspective. We invite you to join us a commentary magazine about come. We give you a few free, reeds and ask you to subscribe. Ninety. Ninety five for a digital subscription. Twenty though many five from all access subscription include, including our beautiful monthly magazine in your mailbox eleven times a year, we are working to close. Our April is
just run the time. I guess it. You will be receiving our march issue in the mail. I haven't yet, and we're we have a big Conklin package of article advising you to believe Bernie Sanders and that he means what it says and says what he means like Horton in Horton, a who write an and elephants, faithful, one hundred percent will Bernie Bernie is faithful to the doctor, of socialism. One hundred percent anyway, and we will have pieces in that package by our own, nor Rossman, associate or high. Now am I an by senior writer Christine Rosa my Christine? I can also hear a reward. Senior editor high, EVA and very other people so stay tuned, for that Means path to the nomination which appeared inexorable, just
four days ago, now seems more complicated by the gigantic victory of jobs. In South Carolina outer outdistancing the final pull average by something like twenty five percent. I believe I think he was up by for the final leverage, or maybe it was all higher our like at least in the week. Pre proceeding. He had got into a league of only four of our Bernie Sanders, and then I guess he crept up during the week, maybe closer to eight or nine, and then he ended up winning by twenty. Eight, I think was a twenty twenty nine. Some like that, he one forty nine percent of the vote to Burmese nineteen Ok, so I get twenty to thirty percent, some like that, and so that is and took the
in our serve like overall vote count in the national vote eyes now in his pocket. It he's only five delegates behind burning. I remember Bernie has sixty. He has such if they for some like that, and indeed nineteen hundred ninety delegates to win so even talking about the delicate count is ludicrous. What it means is in the first state in which five hundred thousand votes were cast Biden crushed the field as Sanders did not crushed the field anywhere. Really I mean so it's where the recall and maybe to the kind of crush the field in Nevada, but that was this
you're an amalgam of a carcass centred ever preferred voting or whatever you call that ranked voting system, and you know, as astonishingly, small number of people voted like that's a state with two million people living in Nevada EM, like a hundred thousand people, voted in about a primary again. My contrast, hundreds of thousands of people in South Carolina, which is why at such an important big state, the first big early primary we're gonna going back over these months, in which we ve been talking about this sort of thing, because the theory was that at least the theory of Joe Biden decline would be that you can't afford to skip these early states and sacrifice the momentum associated with it, because all the votes that your counting on two whole behind you will elapse just out just being demoralized dispirited. So note that theory look like it was within an ace of being played out, but it had not material
as the firewall not only held but strengthened. In the intervening days between, don't you did the week that elapsed between Nevada and South Carolina, which is pretty miraculous and Joe Biden who was broke yesterday, has subsequently raised more money than he's raising the entire campaign over the course of these last several days, which will propel him through Super Tuesday and keep him buyable and South Carolina absolutely scrambled the race in ways. I don't think anybody anticipated even with a Joe Biden.
We were not to candidates fewer than we were yesterday on Saturday morning, and I don't think anybody really anticipated the extent to which this resounding victory would shake up. Everybody's anticipate right. Well, it's the guy factors. What right it's the first time, so two different candidates had a theory of the race before, historically or recently, that allowed for this kind of approach may both failed. That was Giuliani. An Rubia were Giuliani in two thousand eight Rubio, two thousand twelve, both of whom thought that they could kind of it would be ok if they didn't win and then they surged in.
Florida and that didn't work and they both collapse. The minute the Florida primary was over. Now, if Biden had done badly in South Carolina, he would have collapsed and that would have been the end of him, even if you'd only one by a couple of points, I think the idea that he was school erotic in them with you now basically was running on fumes and but but this was bigger than anybody thought and it raises. I think an interesting question, so the first thing that happened on sorry, my was that Tom dire the the air running this vanity campaign for president. Let got out the race it turn. Doubt that's dire spent two hundred and fifty two million dollars. He did not get a delegate so famously in nineteen. Eighty John Connally, the former governor of Texas, got one delegate in their republican primary, having spent eleven million dollars, and so he was
idly derided for the rest of his life as having been the guy with the eleven million dollar deleon. Whilst tyre is the two hundred, Fifty two million dollar no delicate guy which, as you know, what what he deserves for wasting America's time and taking money that he might have just simply lit a match to write, but what's it trusting is that he spent twenty five million dollars on ads in South Carolina spoke. Most of his efforts were in South Carolina, so I'm sure the actual spending in South Carolina was closer to fifty or seventy five million dollars and he ten percent of the vote. This raises an interesting question about this: might Bloomberg strategy when people go into the ballot blue and they told people that they might vote
for the billionaire who's who's been on the airwaves and stuff. Maybe they don't end up doing it when therein there and they actually have a serious choice to make now there's a lot of early voting. We should talk about voting later cause. It's the most infamous thing. That's happened over the last twenty years in american politics in some ways, but so that so Biden Surge or whatever can be captured by are we vote, but it does raise. This question may be the Bloomberg. Balloon is a balloon. Maybe it's full of hot air. Maybe tomorrow and people go to the polls in Texas, where he's he's got twenty percent. Half of them are just gonna vote for Biden, because suddenly Biden looks like he's alive, I'm not dead, I mean, I hope so, and I am I say that not because I support not in preference for one candidate or another, but it would be nice if this idea that you can throw millions of of dollars, hundreds and hundreds of millions of dollars at at at estate, at it and in a
paint a sort of by votes. If it turns out you just can't do it. That would be a very good thing for democracy really speaking, I mean it's true. This is like a real time. Experiment, toast I or turns out of spent half of what Bloomberg spent the granted Bloomberg spent this money since November, so This is a whole new, inspire started. You know one another ten months ago, a year ago or some like that so two different scale of spending, but he spent two hundred and fifty million dollars, but by Bloomberg spent like six hundred million dollars. That's a big difference, but still in the same ball Park of this, a wild extravagant decadent Guenaud palace building right and it's the will, the nakedness other tools what's has been so discomfort Anna will scare. If Bloomberg fails tomorrow, it will scare people off from playing this game.
Financial level ever again if it dial Oh I'm sorry, Satan's Christie IRA's, I'm skeptical of that. I think millionaires egos will willed there. There's always gonna, be a multi million. A billion over than eager large enough to believe he's different from a Bloomberg artist dire. Maybe what is today think money into a viable candidacies rights us so Soros famously George Soros spent thirty million dollars running money through various third in our various packs and things like that in two thousand for leading to Byron Yorks Book of vast leftwing conspiracy, which is really about
that fact, but we're still at a scale that you have no one's ever I mean no one's ever seen anything like this before Bluebird does collapse. It doesn't necessarily mean really great things for Joe Biden has now begun to throw the cold water all over buttons path in a nomination. The very best case scenario for him involves you know a lot of candidates cutting up the vote meeting the fifteen percent delegate threshold, because, if Bloomberg collapses, maybe half of his support, as you said, goes to Biden, but not all of it in a lot of it will go to other candidates, including burning, maybe a third of it goes to burning, in which case he has an easier time getting over the Percent threshold wearing needs doing all these states, and it makes it a little bit harder because Joe Biden needs all these other candidates, not a break up. The vote I dont know hold on. Let me let me let me just a booming: throw some cold water on that negative scenario: okay, so the
big prizes tomorrow in Super Tuesday, there are fourteen states and american small. It's very important american, smaller voting tomorrow, so the two big prizes are the two most populous states in the union. Right California, in Texas, which are both up. California, is a rock ribs blue state. Now right like there's, no pretty much, no republican Party, so that vote is gonna, be very indicative of where the Democratic Party nationally is like if Bernie gets fifty percent, or something like that. This notion that we ve been arguing that he is the future of that these views represent the actual future of the Democratic Party. Will have a real source of power right, because this is the first real test of a state that is really is not read or port righto.
I would new? Hampshire and the vat are all purple states. New South Carolina is a red state right. Texas is a red state, trending purple, but California is blue rights. Democrat Democrat Democrat. So, if Bernie does what it looks like who's gonna argue that this state, that has eleven percent of the population of the country- and it is an isn't that you now is of the view of things but we now know for aid for awhile rail for an account so slow right, but in Texas Sanders was surging a little bit he's in the MID twenties bynes in the MID twenties and Bloomberg Bloomberg, inviting her at like twenty and Sanders is like twenty, three or twenty four point, the last Foles. But if Bloomberg were to underperform the waste by or underperformed and Biden, then wins Texas
That's the while he wins various other places like he'll win, Alabama Hill Win, he'll, probably win Tennessee, probably when Virginia who win North Carolina. Really what the ballast, assuming that you know, people do know what the news is by Tuesday and that he is viable right there, not throwing their vote away on em I know I mean yet nominally speaking. Bernie could have his this incredible structural advantage with delegates because of California, but, as you have pointed out now, not an air but to their it's gonna. Take them two weeks to count the votes and California, yet so, like a fool, if used. If he comes eighty as fifty percent, not ok, fair enough, the ballot out from the example
right. Verona, ok, which is what they bid with with by right, am but there's a lot of places that all this big, diverse field of candidates advantages all the other can non burning candidates, Elizabeth worn being in Massachusetts, even though she's probably gonna be humiliated there with a second place. Finnish is good, for everybody else is not Bernie Sanders right, Amy closer in probably winning Minnesota is good for everybody else. For example, it brings into would win Minnesota might Bloomberg is pulling in the lead in Arkansas Bryce, for which is weird because he devoted all his money organs, but you can see that Kind of falling out from under him, but where does little writhes was probably leyden, but maybe not everywhere. You know. Who knows I'm obviously one of the things it's weird about doing these predictions is its dampening tomorrow,
who the hell harrassing, we say, and all the data is irrelevant right after the amount of momentum shift. We ve seen in the last week alone, suggest that we should look at the polls with a lot is kept. This I've been wondering what the Poles have done, what the Poles do, that they give you a general sense of where people are, but they do not give you a sense of what the margin is. Gonna be right. Bernie under polled wildly in New Hampshire and over pulled in I am Biden, blew out the polling in South Carolina. So, while these poles have tended to get the levels right now and then Clover charted way better in New Hampshire than the pulse suggested, but so. They get this sort of the general rankings right, but they can't they cannot produce what either the ground game or the endorsement game or what warm whatever. Actually
happened. Somebody we haven't talked about. It deserves a post mortem. Is people jumping out of the race yeah what we all decidedly advantage over right now, but here's here's? What strikes me is All we ve done over the last twenty years has been told that nothing matters right, endorsements, don't matter, newspaper put candidate endorsements, don't matter. This doesn't matter that doesn't make the Elliot Matters is raising money on the internet. That's what matters raise money. They yours just incredible that raising the money on the internet, but the raising of the money and the day get two hundred and four a billion donations of twelve dollars each and unbelievable, and all that right, but nothing well so, and debates don't matter. Well, guess what so the debate mattered in South Carolina. It showed that Joe Biden wasn't dead, like he had a pulse and then this endorsement by Jim Kleiber as Noah says, the only Democrat left have colonel
which is otherwise you know the Lindsey Graham out state. Last Democrat, you matter right, you know both these traditional things really did matter which also means that the result in South Carolina. If you follow this logic is going have an effect on Super Tuesday, even though Super Tuesdays only three days after South Carolina, because here is the other thing people used to say people, don't attention until after the Superbowl? Well, guess what maybe People didn't really pay attention until after the Superbowl, so the so Bernie the best organised than the person with the most backing, and all of that comes out of the Buddha comes out of the gate after the Super bowl getting blowing his way through his support in you know in in Island Hampshire, am, I guess,
in Nevada, and now you know. Basically, people are paying attention in the first place, they paid attention, Biden returning to the levels that he was that in November, outpaced them will. He was, I think, close to fifty percent in in in in South Carolina in those in some pole of South Carolina November, I think he was closed. He was in the floor the approach that level of support among african american waters of enough ok, Some just saying like so all of these truisms that we have been told have been superseded by no other realities. Maybe it's all crap, you know, maybe it still true that it matters who would over said Lord where's that debate what on Sunday night there is fifteen, where I dont will not internal politics, that's two instruments so that the next debate two weeks, but how their day
What you know what by then everybody could be out a bible in so that's very pretty interesting, The generations battling further right. What she can. We note. Tromp is now the youngest white male and in the race Biden as the second. You are not a word about the debates. The the one campaign that is now doubling down on the idea that debates really matter is Elizabeth Warren because she's done so badly. So but she's staying in and get it, this is causing opposite, causing consternation among moderate Democrats, but her campaign is going wrong talking about just how amazing her last through debate. Performances was which to me sounds like it. Cry for help, but will that but then live they live bathed weird amniotic flew at the warring campaign, so I was not on Twitter. I don't I don't play. I doubt tweed at, but I read. Twitter
and I was noting all week in this kind of bizarre bitterness, hundreds upon hundreds of tweets about how, if Elizabeth WAR and WAR woman? She would be the nominal right now and it's this. The rampant, massage me insects of all his eyes. Like D twenty, sixteen democratic party nominee wasn't a woman like Amy Closure does exist right. My gaming laboratory doesn't like there is a kind of madness in the worn in war and world, which is this kind of upper middle class white woman world of with this egos giant chip shoulder chip, the attitude about everything about life among among them, and so they they are basically keeping her alive. Through this
result demand. This idea that somehow, but is heard just write to the nomination, has been denied her by evil. But that's my question as it is, is a tactical or is it complain about this. That complaining is real, but you cannot underestimate the effect of that complaining or that line of thinking on the candidate and is in its it's also it's also really generational. Have you noticed the minutes allotted these kind of successful upper middle class? Boomer women who were disappointed about Hilary is loss, but if you look it I mean this is what you'll never see Female Elizabeth Warren supporters doing things like hot girls for Elizabeth? You know it they do for her girls for Bernie. I mean this. Is it there's? It there's a really obvious generational split here right and there's this this this phenomenon
of war and, ultimately being having very, very serious identity. Politician rifling, identity, politics, except it's with this class of p. But who are not supposed to be an identity right up Class college educated women- that's not white wine. That's not so as to be an idea to the identities, was to be rid of racial or be about love. Whenever an ironic and ironically those same women are the ones who have arguably most benefited from identity based policies like affirmative action, you know it's it's it we're. There is a lot of tension among me, don't worry. It's about white women success right well to serve. You note, and it's about that. That's like my favorite and CARE Karen Tumulty of of Time magazine tweeted out the other eight well. Here we are the only three final viable candidates are three old white males right? Ok, so let's look at those white males, just a second you have to Jews and a Catholic
ever been a jewish president. There has been one catholic president in two hundred and fifty years Jews. You know, as I constantly say, if my. Grandfather the milkman. Writing the seal test. Milk wagon, at three o clock in the morning from under the Williamsburg Bridge to deliver milk, had had been thought that people, would call him a white man at some point in its life like Rockefeller, he would have fallen off of course I mean you know, so that's not diversity anymore? It's not divert something. They was a diverse field, another's nodded diversity and write. It makes sense that twitter would be so in the tank for Elizabeth Warm, because Elizabeth Warrant has been generating takes designed for consumption on twitter for the vast majority of her campaign and has been just humiliating herself over it. You know she's targeting Jack Dorsey in train, trying to break up twitter and and posting
Fake news onto on Facebook to try to humiliate Facebook has a social media is a singular focus of Democrats more than anybody outside of the belt way she pledged to be a defender of. Swift's honoured seriously calling graphic incidents, traffic violence pledging to make education secretary, a night invented by a nine year old Trans person, for it humiliating and then the golden wearing love of Aimee Kilometer? Briefly, yes, please, who exist as a various, directive woman, a powerful woman who doesn't make apologies for her past as it as it. Tough, no nonsense, prosecutor who is nevertheless come off his likeable, even though she throws books at her staff heads everybody likes her. Even though she's by all reports, kind of a jerk behind the scenes? What does that say about Elizabeth, worn supporters beyond the fact that their just completely myopic and narcissistic obsessed with their own victimhood complex?
how about this about the fact that she is a terrible candidate? Let's go back to them. Now, let's go back to the moment, the by four created moment of her campaign right, debate, or second about can remember which, where the Esther was. Was she going to support Medicare for all or not right? And there were two candidates and they had to make some weird decision right so, but he a judge who had said that is for domestic care for all flipped and said that he was for Medicare for all who want it and and Warren, decided tat. She was going to try to compete with Bernie to win the progressive vote. Imagine that was stupid. That was a profoundly she was rising in the polls with all her policy proposes in everything, and what did she do to herself? bought in having spent fifty trillion dollars with her wealth tax. She bought into another fifty trillion, dollar expense and
cratered any sense among reason people who were not already supporting her that she. Is the ideal ideas candidate in the race. Imagine Elizabeth worn who had done what but a judge, dead and said you know what I'm a progressive and I'm for this, but I'm realistic. I want things to work. A bomb care is pretty good you now we just need to fix it or improve on it or get. Get out Donald Trump hostility to it or whatever. If she had done, would bind it with with health care. I don't think she would have ended up going from twenty five to ten in the polls, I got into this argument on, are that only women in this race are asked to present the show the numbers. Do the math give a white paper for your plan. Where is Bernie has not been asked about that? I don't know what universe are living in with Bernie has not been pressed about. The math on his
care for all, but he hasn't he declined to participate shouts. He shouted response from nobody. Gonna warranties, like I've worn, is like a classic. It may because a professor amount as a student movement which is like as soon but she is like a classic. A student like they say, right, a paper right, a paper. I love writing a paper. You know, as opposed, sectors like I'm, not gonna write a paper. It will see. How it comes out with it comes up with matters is the big picture you know like that and that nobody cares nobody cares about these numbers its guard. Now it's it's a good spin, if you're going, if you're going as the I'm, not crazy person right, that's I'm not a crazy person so I'm really provide you with realistic evidence that I'm not crazy. But if you
play the warning game this moment, Tito split, split universe, worn does would put a judge. Did she was perfectly able to do so? He was run as a total, lefty lunatic and then he said. Oh, I see I see some daylight had me over here and people. Like me, I'm com, so I'll, be the calm guy right, and so that was his. That was in his his strength. I guess anyway, if he had strength. So let's go to him, so he dropped out. Of course yesterday so much praise some He would just what a noble thing to do by will say that there are two one thing about it, which is that the parties, exist any more by the judges. The only person who now is existing like the party right,
Like personally, doesn't have any money laughter he couldn't raising after South Carolina, so you might as well, but he did drop at the idea being that the party, the party that shouldn't nominate Sanders. Should the part of the party that should stop saying should really have a clean Charlotte, stop examiners. That's he basically said that right. So either he's in man that either he's an anachronism because he thinks the party matter war. He has set himself up with the party. Should things go, you know, how are they go.
You wanna for argument. Euins talk about up yet now. That's it! That's it that's good! I just the hue brantome, pretty remarkable campaign. I praise aside fur his you know, duty fealty to the to the party as an operative he'd, still scale, of a very capable and talented politician and what he managed to do over the course of this campaign is pretty remarkable. He was an initial candidate. He didn't have any particular time action in the internet environment that we're all steeped in that. So many candidates cater to any sort of ran as this boring guy that caught fire, I mean that's just kind of a remarkable thing and
at that that guy, in about a bad, also now pulled out before humiliating himself right, which Elizabeth Warrant declining today right- and I think I know it to know his point about his is demeanor ironically Biden Start now his campaigners and on temperament right. He was going to be the anti trump temperate mentally the country's returned to normal six hundred sector, but it was actually Buddha Judge who is the temperament candidate, because in debates and on the campaign trail, he was this very reasonable, very talented and deft speaker, and I think his temperament is what was so appealing to so many people, even though, like I am sure all of us on the spot guess his policy positions are far too left over
we would be comfortable with temperamental. It was actually a refreshing thing to listen to talk right, I mean I, he is an excerpt about religion on religion. He was kind of after so, but I mean he was in credit. Incredibly was an incredibly skilled campaign in the course of these debates he never put a foot wrong. He never said the wrong thing, I mean maybe his fighting with with, with with club a charm. Was unwise. Maybe but it's not like he did it badly in whole or or were embarrassed himself or anything like that. I think the idea that the first serious candidate gay candidate for the presidency is boring, is itself kind of it liberal choice I mean that's, you know he needed both to take its extraordinary advantage of being the first candidate which he did in fundraising. I believe, I'm sure that's the reason that he raised the colossal sums of money that he managed to raise
you know from democratic elites. Biodiversity Taiwan gave just lose all sense, proportionality and Second, you know so so that's a very colorful thing to be is the first game cannot for present. So you then deliberately play it as boring, because don't need to add any color. You need actually subtract some color, it's like! Oh, you know. I got a husband, I gotta baby. You know they do have a baby. I thought, just talking are they only talk about the baby? Ok, I darkening have one unless your Marcia guessing or half a dozen other beyond on the left. For that kind of effect, is Counter Revolutionary revolution are right, but remember Marcia, guess I thought I was gonna revolution issues for burnt legged. That was a Bernie hit that wasn't that that wasn't that the Idiot logic- old madness of repeat not being gay enough plate was, was more calculi
I think that it was as ideological as we would think think. It was which, by the way, get us to the is our thing that happened last night in Minneapolis with Amy Club, which are going to her home state, have a rally and having the rally disrupted by a black lives matter riot of sums or at the rally where they people were demanding that she suspend her campaign because she prosecuted somebody ten years ago that there are fifteen years ago that they are unhappy that she prosecuted and if you think that wasn't Bernie hit, that was a brilliant we conceived Bernie Sanders smash job like to disrupt her event to make her cancel her events of that she was humiliated. Thirty six hours before people started to vote in is thereof linkage. Their cause
I don't follow these issues to declare Lebanon twenty black lives matter and burning sovereignty. Sixteen they were very famously antagonistic and in support of whom the black lives matter. Movement was not a Bernie Sanders. What I mean Johann Omar is his surrogate in Minneapolis. So could she get the black matter people out to to make a scene in front of it global charts rally, you betcha, while an according to the closest our campaign. They had already had some sort of gentlemen's agreement or gentle women's agreement with the protesters about them being able to have their say and then obviously the rally continuing. So that was broken at the last minute Gazette well at least that's their story that they had agreed to give them some space to protest, but then it was, oh, I'm sure, I'm sure I'm sure they did like like morons they they fell for
They fell for the burning scam all this chicken about, like not oh, you can stand over here and will have a meeting with you beforehand to hear your concerns like we're, trying to be when the primary you idiots, like don't, have a meeting with that's thirty six hours before the primary bring an eye what right we're trying to crush you and get you out of the race. So that it can win the state and guess what you walked right into the bus saw because the Only new story the twin cities. Today is Amy Club, which are having to cancel her rally because You know she they. The claim is that she was mean too, but if I'm gonna do- or am I mean- we ve been dealing with the prosecutor thing from the course of an entire year of this campaign. The candidate who ran away from her record as a prosecutor, Gamala Harris bit the dust pretty early on Ok, but we look, I'm not really laxative extremely online them out, but does it appealed to the mast?
Many women have not really the Saint Paul Pioneer Press, so I have no idea how much you know this has been discussed. I do, however, red powerless blog which, as you know, two of whose you know leading figures in the twin cities, him one of em, Scott Johnson, his mother, my mother with the high school together. So that's it! The little little soup are interesting inter conservative detail for you there so heightens together at some. There was the name of the school year book. So hydrants, don't ask me: what's hygiene and nights anyway So I so I've been reading them, of course, for twenty years, and you know their friends of mine stuff and I dont. Remember la coverage of of charters and clover. Charlie black lives matter problem, so that I think this is a relatively recent vintage. As such there's looked and said you know what I have a real shot here, too, you know to cross
it can be worn in Massachusetts. I can beat her in Minister. That's gonna put that's gonna, be part of this steamroller during through the through the and you know, and he does not. That campaign is tough and harsh and You know they they, the chop out, trap house guys are the bright parts of their You know, whatever I mean it's the same, it's got the same. They got the idiot logically forbid. You now break get like what all. We are as knives how in your your pillow, and I will give a stab through your pillow think so Bernie. So
Is he worried, I thought he sounded bad on Saturday night out enough, you listen to his serve concessions. Speech key has had such energy and them in that. You know, like Amelia Cloud Cloud Way, but he had such know strengthened force, and then he seemed very defeated. Like kind of rattled bye bye binds victory. I thought no, no son, I did I agree, although I think he was also a them running up to that He would moderate the energy in them with the kind of more subdued Bernie anyway. I think, but I suspect that, after to Morrow the next time we hear from him, he would he won't.
As defeated. No I've just thing women without really angry, because if he performs, as we expect them to perform really well in California and just kind of middling everywhere else, good enough to maybe take a few small states, but not great enough to win the Big States Texas, Massachusetts Virginia then he's probably gonna be really annoyed at California for non handing him an outright massive victory. Now he could have an hour it s a victory if he has a fifty percent threshold in California. I be shocked, didn't when taxes, if he didn't when half a dozen other places where we just again, I don't know I was, I was struck by how he he seemed disappointed that I wouldn't. Blame in this sense, like you seem disappointed that his inevitability had taken a head, because You know he's been running for five years in, like he's probably ready to want to the next phase
ready him. He sees this great brass ring hanging there and this question is he gonna be forced to slog through another three months and have a gigantic fight just to get there. No he's, not tromp he's not just ok I'll, come down the escalator and see how this goes. I'll give it a year and then, a year later, like I've, just steamrollered or everything having he started, this twenty fifteen isn't insurgent. He has never stopped running since heart attack didn't know about, and this is where I think, you're starting to see that the chopper trap house story than at times this weekend was. Interestingly timed. I think, because you're starting to see that bubbling up of the kind of angry conspiratorial thinking of the burning the die, hard Bernie folks and that's pretty dangerous for Bernie, if you believe, as we have often talked about. The democratic party needs those suburban lady voters, because it's that angry conspiratorial, Bernie Bro too
own setting aside the substance, but just that tone is off putting for voters particular in places like the Virginia suburbs, which have recently gone to the Democrats, but they're not they're, not that type of Democrats so I'll be curious to see if keeps maybe he's tamping down the angry shouting, but his supporters have already started this. This kind of conspiratorial overtone, as as they get to the convention, wait a minute. There was a profile of upload trap how Young York tie you many eyes? Oh yeah, now, sir, it's worth reading its worth reading, I really love to know the highlights of that. You got a read it, but you know of invest not safer what the highlights the highlights, our that they're, making a hundred and sixty seven thousand dollars a month through Patrie on or go find me, Well, they're making the two million dollars a year. We really tragic cursing more.
But here we don't have a patriarch we just have. We have subscription to commentary which you should, of course be immediately subscribing to, because we are not doing this for money, but rather there also banned. They were also banned from read it because they incite by their followers in, and they themselves jokingly, of course, cause it's all a joke. If it comes from the left inciting by instead encouraging not just against conservatives, obviously, but against NEO liberals, their favorite there. Return. The most are the weirdest thing about chop, a trap house which, for those who don't know it, is a podcast done by three or four youngish white guys who are Bernie brows, who basically define they called So what are the columns answered back? Did it hurt? I laughed right, the most, Just think fact about one of them will manicure is that he is the son of a man named Daniel Manicure, who was a editor at the new Yorker at it,
random house and wrote a really wonderful novel called the treatment about twenty five years ago, very serve urbane you no upper West Side Guy and he's got this serve like MAX Blumenthal said people not that Sidney Boom thousand urbane upper West. I guy he's a stalinist, create but scumbag, but so it is how I found my even worse. But I'm just saying it's weird that you know it's like my mother's liberal parents, radical children theory like will manicure is today and a as you know. I don't know as that. Cameron Douglas Michael Douglas, but they also to the other notable thing about the profile of that group. Is that one of the women who was at the time
a chapel trap US member refused. She wanted to stay anonymous, not because she feared you know a vast rightwing conspiracy coming after, but because the chopper troposphere there so rabid. She was afraid that if they ever broke up, they would do no doctor whether rubbing the kind of the strange in turn, left fearmongering. Mc goes on there and the incestuous of the critics, because some of the feminist critics of chop, a drop, has evidently used to date. Chapel trop Alsace. I mean it's just It's it's like. I like an episode of general. From the only sure they weren't this russian Botz, though trying to undermine Bernie Sanders campaign. From this viewpoint year. By the way we haven't done, I've we haven't done a post mortem on Tom Cyrus. I'd just like to say: not only did Tom style lose two hundred and fifty million dollars, you know of his money, getting no delegates which is good because he would probably have spent it on. You know, worse things but that, but that you know he is also. He praised himself.
For being the guy who started. The trump must be impeached thing in twenty seventeen. Thus, apart simply driving part of the psychosis that led the Democrats down the two year Russian meddling, you know, coal into into into mania that then led to the impeachment of of Trump that led to that. Democratic, Guenaud, creating that's a mood crater ring after the after the impatient with such a failure. So so style has had a really really fantastic effect. He is a republican I believe a secret republican troll seeking to destroy the democratic party. From from within that, that's my current thinking that he feeds snake
into the White House late at night, through Blair, house of the supposed fino tunnel from Blair House and he and Trump Meet in the tunnel, and you know he. Basically, you know if they forgot this was due next, so watch Steiner's next moves, because they could have a really interesting memories up to it could be to benefit. That's that's all you say so across the virus. Ah, so guess how many cases are in the United States? Are we now react, as we haven't fully termed confirmed? Seventy two. There are seventy two confirmed cases of for on a virus in the United States? Seventy two yeah, I mean you know how many people live in the United States for three hundred and thirty five million. You haven't even folks like gum, reasonable, cautious people like former FDA, Chairman Scott,
property. Sure that there is hundreds of undiagnosed cases is walking around sinking I'm so there are seven hundred and seventy two cases of the crucial factors. I'm only saying this to point out this simple fact: that in twenty nineteen, thirty five thousand people in the United States died from the flu that is seven hundred a week died of the flu. Ok So what we have here is an object lesson in theory. It's happening in this instance, its communication way in the world that are outstripping stripping emotional capacity to deal with them. Well, that's! What's really terrifying about this thing is not the impact of the virus, but the impact of financial contagion on on the market. That will let's talk about you, so it happens in China, breakthrough evil, isolated it to the to the lived through. The bleed out to the bad or
a population of one hand and people eating bats and stakes in the war on market, but you know that also happens in a country in which it is possible for the government to shut a hundred million. To put a hundred million people quarantine with a snap of the fingers which could not happen in the United States or in most places on earth, and so you look at that and you think well, you know, aren't we somehow falling prey to a Command economies, work or totalitarian systems. Incredibly, sir, average way of dealing with a disease which is to try to you know like to cure, come up with its or humane, where rational way of dealing with us, but just to like perform instantaneous trio's against a colossal large publication population about whom they cared nothing
are you just offering this wealth? So markets didn't really react when the slip supply chain shut down, didn't react for weeks when the supply chain from transient them and began to spread in Western Europe in MILAN started to look like it was beginning to close. The bottom fell outside friends for a couple of friends and finance and they're just absolutely manic some days. You know it's just like. For a couple of weeks, you had the best weeks. Ever seen of top hats and monocles in everybody's humbug, champion an audible about days on the street lost three thousand points took a fifteen percent haircut and its mean of the products they analogue analysed. Houses are like well, we could see a cue to recession that this plan, we're gonna, lose at point, appoint a half on GDP and it would probably will because all that activity is gone, but this speculative based on the assumption that consumer spending is gonna slow, when the supply crunch hits storks. None of this happened yet nothing's happened yet all of this
I say that the market was wildly oversold if all this is speculative, but nevertheless Solano money, that's just being based on the prospect of how you will that this virus is gonna, be some really. That absolutely am. I mean it may but you know has long way to go before it kills. Thirty five thousand people in a year and that's what happens with flew in the United States in a year now usually happens to people who are already whose immune systems already compromise like. If you get up the perfectly healthy twenty five year old person, it's unlikely you're gonna die of the flu, but you know if you're fifty and you have a key and get my act rejected- even get the flu while you're in the hospital with something else in your immune system is compromised them after genital you die of the flu or you're eighty five years old in your immune system is going cuz you're, eighty five, so you just get it and you know, and then then then died of pneumonia like symptoms or something like that. But you know
if we get too, in other words, like us serious outbreak here that isn't simple conventional flew season effect would be to have three or four or five times that number of people fatally compromised by the flu. That's what though it's been six or seven weeks or something since this thing first emerged wheel, seem to be seeing that now that the trappings of pandemic will be absolutely devastating to not just an economic effects, but also likely that political and firemen right well with it afterwards. Recession is the worst possible thing for an incumbent, slow down, and you know sterile tents and shut down streets lock
being quarantined off, thou younger and, of course, I do think if it doesn't grow exponentially in the U S over the next week or so. I think. I think, though, things was mobile, calm down a bit considerably in terms of mountains of politics and and will not unanimously apparent, get the panic buying and stories were all covered this weekend, I think, especially in California, on the West Coast, you saw them all the pictures of people and costume of going insane for toilet paper in Clorox wives, and I mean locally like they're, my local CBS has new more hands entities.
And tat sort of thing, so people are doing. The kind of panic responds, even though we're not even really generally using the term pandemic, yet everyone's being cautious unless your bill gates and then you're calling it a pandemic, but that I think to Johns point its. I think Americans will fears about it being like the spanish flu. Are that fear, because the spanish flu killed young, healthy people killed, people who did not, who were not all, did not have underlined conditions and and was a global pandemic side. We really not seeing that yet, but I'm with no other We have a lot more cases out there than anyone's counted so far. Will then there then there are the really serve freakish, weird things that are happening like what's happening in IRAN, like a senior government adviser official in IRAN died of the corona virus. Somebody took give in the iranian parliament like last week and collapsed on the floor when during during a parliamentary session like that. There is this weird question about whether the Pope got sick because he visited
current a virus patients last ITALY, I mean so I'm not, I don't mean to understate the GEO political power civilities. Here, I'm just saying that they're not here yet and that. But there is this kind of weird the pool nickel effect is on the one hand, if you know, if the administration happy talks, that's viewed as unacceptably you know Craven, but if it were to, if it were sort of like be alarmist, like rod, Rosen Steam sister from the CDC last week, you know said basically run and high we're all gonna die, then then, they're hysterical so once again we're in a position where you know, there's literally no way part of the conventional wisdom that that that the Trump administration could do anything right here could have more women and minorities on the task for yeah, you of the people
and the desk. You know I know- and I were were texting this weekend. I will now. I said that as far as I was concerned, if the task force is not made up exclusively of jewish of asian doctors, it's a bad task, I think he was prohibited or not, it's a bridge with an Asian the doctrine of sexuality. We all have to think and stereotypes it is well think in the ones that everybody knows. That's right. That's right in a positive stereotypes. Hysteria like Archie Bunker, said he would only only want to go to a jewish doctor, By the way. Do you remember the story of the toilet paper shortage of nineteen? Seventy three, it's one of the great again or of like mask sure panics created by nothing so John Curse. Him some that's nature. One night and he says, is telling a joke. So the joke set up. As you know, my here that there's a toilet
paper shortage and so Blabbin President Nixon did dotted some like that and then the next day there was a nationwide pan. People going and buying toilet paper. Every supermarket and the country, because you know like twitter people watch Johnny, Carson every night and so Johnny Carson said there was a toilet paper shortage and they know they get. People are just lived through the like gas embargo or the Ireland BAR where they were going than they were gonna, get that toothpick for it. That's all right! the primary all the result of a Johnny Carson joke. Look it up. It's a it's. A great America was like that Furthermore, I accept about toilet paper, and can I just say this is why I give no credence to the idea that an Instagram influence
or has power with Johnny Carson. Had his power leaky ushered in a Sherman Apocalypse, tat the patio these instagram influencers. Now, I'm sorry as an audience of twenty million anymore about letting millions wrong audience walking dead did at some point. Which is an interesting analogy, oh by the way. Another reason why you know we ve had this like twenty years of hysteria about zombies, and now we have this this disease, which is one of the reasons that everybody, I think yourselves, I'm worried about somewhat reminded in in the the blame that's being cast on the Trouble administration of Bush and Katrina. Obama. And people out the sea border rising there is this in Evan ability to wet when there is an exaggeration event and there's no one quite to blame, the president is going to get it,
I mean I remember, deepwater horizon was fascinating cuz. I I knew I knew a guy who was very anti Obama and made money selling an answer like as it is an oil trader and basically was like to sell fantastic, so amazing, he's really getting it now and I've hated Obama on Israel and I was like, but you know what didn't do like there is nothing ship this. There was this ship in the red near the bottom of the Gulf of Mexico and it's like, and then they put a camera and yet so then, all day every day you can see the oil leaking. So is like who cares? Who cares like give our key? He would use it against us if you know he would keep after Israel, while God is striking him. Town now is. That was my friends line, but it is true. Let there was that whole thing, like all wish did was say, was say, you're doing a hell of a job too to Michael Brandon that a FEMA
which was his misguided way of trying to you know like cheer up. The troops were You don't like dealing with this unprecedented situation and that's all to do, but, of course, and in in bushes case, the Anti Katrina stuff was all I think up over flying over air force, one which was hopefully hopelessly callous, rhino bombers case. His supporters were also disappointed in his room. Because he was insufficiently leveraging the event to to destroy our Andrew. I had not seen there was a whole twenty four hour new cycling, which every working Pandit declared that Brok of Amr had not demonstrated enough anger right and should be real right, angry time to get angry right well anyway. So here's trump you now so here s what atoms when things start Goin battery is so we haven't got into the point. Get word run from supporters are saying like to seize this or that from Britain will the greatest moment, though, on Saturday
press conference was so trumps. There too every says: revilers starts by spending ten minutes talking about the Afghanistan deal which we should probably have talked about, but but He set spends demands and he doesn't use the word Afghanistan, the first five, so there's no way that I live in a country knew what he was talking about. I kept thinking stolen urban peo it more. What you know this thing all the current. The bottom is Trump addresses corona virus, so is totally unclear because he somehow forgot to mention the word. I can't stand that it moves on Krona virus, any introduces Anthony fetch it had seedy sees. You know, you know guys been around as a public health officials and since the AIDS crisis and in our current amazing public speaker in all this and peeped, speaks at all and then the second question, it's from a female reporter, I think from CNN, but I'm not sure who says. Mr President,
How do you addressed the charges that you have muzzled, CDC director Anthony found she now apparently, knowing that Anthony found she had just spoken like she answered, Reggie had been standing there, five feet away from her in the White House, press room and then Trump said well Dark voucher. Can you come too microphone, vouches like no one's ever muzzle me. I haven't been muzzled. No one's ever muzzled me, but it was like come in. She and her producers have decided. This was the question they were going to ask and you know if it so that's the part of the hot gotcha mountain and then, as now said, the other thing is all this stuff on the on Twitter, about how out I'm peasant Godard or there are no women of the other thing- was Thomas Chattin Williams and otherwise pretty interesting writer and race.
Then showed a picture of the pants taskforce sang a prayer at the beginning of the meeting that they were having, and this was like a great now. They're praying like opening a meeting about a pandemic with a prayer is somehow you know somehow an active incredible in May only only only to a ghetto intellectual monkey. In Paris, let me harmonious wrong and Williams if the ever. If the effort here is to present the trumpet ministrations priorities as being failed and off I mean the effect of this kind, commentary is just to make you absolutely terrified of below it. A progressive ask force, would look like a focused entirely on diversity, rod and making sure that there is an introduction, denominational prayer. Meeting ahead of all this again, so we just take up forty five minutes with all these prayers from various religions across the world. I mean this is this is what their focus is. Our yeah.
Ok, I'm eating ought to talk about. I can't think of anything else. We touch on the afghan. The element of note is that the Taliban officially stated this morning that the ceasefire is yeah? Well, there are things that they got fighting for a week as a great act as the matter back to war. So it's it's. Yeah? I mean, the more United Trumpets lucky that nobody pays attention to the details, because this release of five thousand, which the outgoing president declined to say he would observe right anyway, I made it an impossible situation like Cato trumpets, task, Zol collars, I'd with you now coming up with a deal at all costs. Then he came up with a deal at all costs and there we are so there we did thirty seconds on the afghan view that will supposedly end in nineteen years of war, though of course want. The question is: do we continue to fund a government that apparently will have participation with the Taliban
if not over domination by the Taliban, how will we not? How would we not so first of all, no one on the right ones, support any foreign government, but second of all, like this government will effectively have been created by the United States having this is this deal if it, if it, if it goes through, will be imposed upon the current afghan political system? By the United States and then we're gonna cut them up where the ones that they were the ones who are insisting that they go into a reconciliation with the Taliban I mean so I don't This is among the manifold ironies of of our of our time. Is that pretty protest? Fourteen thousand nine hundred and four, so without grotesquerie these are crushing morality that it brings. If you think about it too hard, we will bring this to a close. Christine Noah, Abraham John Upwards,
Transcript generated on 2020-03-07.