Well, here we are. In this podcast, we here at COMMENTARY eat crow about our presumption Donald Trump couldn't win, we explain why we think he did, and why Hillary Clinton failed so spectacularly. Give a listen.
This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
Welcome to the Commentary magazine Podcast Day, one of the term Para Wednesday November, nineteen, twenty, sixteen I'm John ports. The editor Terry. Follow me on Twitter. It at John Jay POT, words to my left, ably, while their senior editor, whom you can fallen twitter at eight Ringwald. My right now Rossman arson might ever whom you can follow it at no Acy Rossman on Twitter. You can like us on Facebook commentary. You can follow. Commentary add commentary on Twitter.
You might ask: why should you follow us today of all days, since we have been rather confidently presuming over the course of the last two three months that four months, that Donald Trump could not possibly when the presidency- and he is now one the presidency in an earthquake moment in what is easily the most of the largest upset victory, if you consider where he was and who he is and who his rival was and what happened in the republican primaries, the largest upset victory, maybe in american history, so we're gonna try to go through what it as though we got wrong, why we got it wrong whether we should even have been arguing. Discussing the question of whether or not trumpets, electable are or not electable in the first place and where things
go from here. So I know Rothman. We were just talking about the question of the composition of the Trump winning electric versus the composition of the Hillary Clinton, losing electorate and the theory that the Trump campaign and the trumper's had been going on for a year and a half was that he was going to produce this, not invisible, votive boo from people who haven't vote fifty years. Do we think that's what happened based on what were seen? Why not? Really? First of all, I want to say just to get it out of the way that I was the wrong person to ever wrong. My wrongness is in inexcusable so wrong,
diamond, very voluminous in good company there and that's cold comfort, but it turns out that just basically, if you were to sum it up in a sentence, Republicans who were sceptical of Trump from the very beginning, didn't trust the data they were saying in the primary and they corrected for that, overly so, by being very credulous about the data, they were saying. The general, which was wrong now rags worry that sort of the words the pulling in the primary was was correct. The polling in the general was Incredibly long, that is to say that the trump was at forty three to forty three point: two percent of the real their politics average yesterday afternoon, and he now this debate about what forty eight seven fourteen point seven. So he he basically outperform
four hundred and forty eight or some other, so he so he was almost five points higher than the real clear politics average had him at and, of course, the margin of victory. Hillary was supposed to be winning by about two point: five and nationally and they're basically tied. So that was that was within the frame of the margin of the distribution of that when his son is remarkable, because its lopsided in the places where you would expect the Trump vote to come from the particularly the upper Midwest, see the rest by the former industrial states of the upper Midwest. There were poles of Wisconsin and Michigan that were gold standard polls that were not wrong ever that predicted Hillary Clinton winning but safely with six seven points slightly lower than Barack Obama, but not much and Donald Trump easily. When those states he won Pennsylvania. These is this. Is it
that hasn't been replicated since nineteen. Eighty eight now are these a bunch of trump voters who were selective about responding to the poles. There might be something to that: we're not entirely sure just how much that accounts for this victory, and I wouldn't want to say it's nothing, they're, probably as something to that response by a sort of thing, but Down are Hillary Clinton. Voters didn't show up right associations that they almost seven million voters who voted fur Brok, Obama just didn't didn't. Well, there are two ways of looking at that. So right now Tromp is on track to about each or somewhat better Mitt Romney. These sixty one million total votes he probably end up somewhere around sixty two million. I thank this well roles in as the absentee ballads are counted the military about stuff. That's counted actually much
later than people realise in a lot of that is, is in states like California, in boilers only male in stuff like organ in Washington Colorado, so there's a lot more votes to be counted likely to serve the balance of anything so Hillary Clinton will be, will almost certainly prevail by a tiny margin in the popular vote and he will win, maybe as many as three hundred electoral votes. That's not, I think, entirely clear as yet as all of this says, though, is that he got the Romany vote in a little more in two thousand. They Morocco Mama, got seventy million votes nay, Brok, Obama, Mamma got seventy million votes. Hillary Clinton is gonna, get sick. The sixty. One million vote Seven million lost a nine million loss or my weight, it say five, in loss from twelve where those orders go. They didn't vote.
Maybe some of them dead and maybe a lot of people died and you know who votes for who were where. But there is no sign that a bunch of Obama voters when voted for Trump. There's, no sign that a bunch of Republican voters voted for Hilary and they were replaced by these. Never voting p. Eleven voted in forty years in the upper Midwest Trump got the republican vote, plus a little bit from too thousand tool distributed differently, as no said, meaning he got enough of in was com in Michigan and Pennsylvania, Ohio to win those states. But a lot of that is the tanking of the Obama coalition for Hilary. And the taking of the Obama coalition for Hilary means african American voters
though, it appears, for example, that in Philadelphia she got something like two hundred thousand fewer votes in twenty. Sixteen than Barack Obama got in twenty twelve and what that says about the debt Craddock Coalition going forward? Is it's really a clear whether or not the Democratic Party has a naturally existing majority or a plurality of voters without an african American at the top of the ticket or a celebrity. I mean a lot of this has to do with personality bra, about my Hillary Clinton celebrity she was she's, not a popular liberty, but she was there. Think about this race is that republic nominated. A person who was nearly equal to Hillary Clinton, Celebrity Oakland's, the most famous person ever to run for president
first lady secretary of state, huge best selling author, a figure in public life for twenty five years, hugely fate was enormously full of celebrity, but not happen. Likeable seem famous, didn't do it for Barack Obama either he going on. We have now achieved life, but he became. Famous for being famous. She was quarter, century famous, but maybe Her for a lot of her face was negative thickened with which he did in which he was not was a charismatic celebrity images Jews Larry in little definition of being that famous, but she didn't she didn't wheeled that in twenty, as I said, I think I'm the last park as to podcast ago. She in twenty three and when she left office in September of twenty thirty January, twenty thirteen she in gallop,
I then approval rating of sixty eight percent, sixty percent she ends up. Three and a half years later, with an approval rating somewhere around thirty, seven percent, so The story of Hillary Clinton is a story of Hillary Clinton, own behaviour, her own conduct and her own presence in in political combat. Taking her, from being the most popular political figure in America to among the least popular political figures of America that Her. That's all on her. Tromp has nothing to do with it Obama's nothing to do with it. Hilary has everything to do with that. I do think I have to think that Trump has to do with With it in the following, since I think his preposterousness was actually turned out to be a great ass for him in that. I think people thought
there's no way at the end of all this? This guy is really going to win. Do we really have to turn out to fight to fight? This is I think, you're lucky. You know, because we all assume that the democratic machine would would whoa to life run bring out all these mosaic. That democratic have been managed to get to the poles for quite some time and really fully understand the scope of what happened last night. You can't just look at the presidential level because it was a way of election. It was a republican wave election, the fur presidential wave election for Republicans in many years. The dam, the destruction of the Democratic Party, is near total Republicans held onto their Senate and they're. Looking at a real
favourable nap in twenty eight teen Joe Mansion is with from West Virginia we're Donald Trump one by twenty points is Dorothy flirting with flit pulling it Jim efforts. Flipping party registration, bright, blue he'll, be he'll, go from being a democratic, they held the house. They picked up three good governance. Oriole seats for grand total of thirty three and they could virtually past constitutional amendments on their own. At this point and the legislative down ballots we're going at the legislative level which, by the way, Barack Obama had made his personal mission to try to repair some of the damage that he done to the legislative level. He they legislate state legislative level he made a hundred and fifty endorsements. He went on its stumped for candidates at state level. You ve really tried his best to repair the damage and that the did he extensive it is. Is remarkable. Democrats lost the Kentucky House, which was there southern legislator it would Republicans took over both chambers of government in Iowa, Minnesota Democrats had a little bit success in the water where they managed to rather head
sir retain their there's. Plenty of treasure take take a stand, make a case for Nevada, say envy I agree that it is the only state, the only state in which it appears that what we assumed the Democrats we're gonna do. They do They say they have to get out of a machine backed by unions and internal political machines, of all that the do that got wild was wildly successful, generating an early vote disproportionately hispanic or latino in in nature, and not only did they win Hilary one that state and the Senate candidates the Democrats and Canada. Master one over over a pretty good republican candidate, Joe Hack and an ape, and they lost, and the Democrats when the state legislature, so
That is, that state. If other states had been like Nevada. If Lord had been like the vat, if, if I would like the value of Pennsylvania been like Nevada, that what we assumed. That was the national. Picture of the democratic parties machine, it turns out that the machine broke down, nor I mean literally it broke down. If she, loses two hundred fifty thousand votes off Obama in twenty twelve. That means that the machine didn't get the people out. Obama got the people out. It wasn't that you know all this stuff, but mechanics I've been learning about this for twenty years, how they do it now you had big data news. I paths and you do this. You do that and it's all nonsense because- and this is of course The revolutionary thing of that word were that the entire political system is going to have to digest.
Trump one spending two hundred million dollars Hilary spent six hundred million dollars. She spent. What does that do math from me that she's meant not twice Three times as much as he did and they got it actually the same amount of vote nationally and they at the same time about naturally cause she ran up high totals- and this is where she didn't have to do get out. The vote can for the New York. There's no get at the vote in California and you work. There's only one way, not messaging like wealthy. She focused too much on Donald Trump Attack, sir his this rhetoric. She should, but he should have been talking about Brok Obama's achievement. In the auto bail out while Accept let let's, let's put it this way, it's very simple trump, comes down the escalator and he's got this one thing to say, which is make America it again: what does she want? Those You have to say what what what was Trump trumps, what what? What was trumps message was on a hat make Amerika great again.
What was hers, I'm with her her message was her. You know we keep thinking. We keep thinking that Trump was the poorest. How can I do? I think largely was, and you can't separate any for any of the south, but he actually came in this race. This is how he vanquish those sixteen Republicans because Sixty Republicans were handed a low, but this go to that and I'm going to try to get the modern conservative laying in the middle move over into the very conservative late I'll talk about this for the abortion people in that for the gun, people and this for these people. I'll pick up this and I'll be. Can hear and third here somebody that- and he had no lane He was. He was an interesting lanes. He wasn't gonna, he had a big impact, simple message, he got all that stuff horribly wrong. Whenever he was questioned on any of those around, he was all over the magnet because his It was this it was going to the dogs. I'm gonna make a great again. I'm gonna fix it. I alone can fix countries located Oxford very much. It was very comfortably. You know innkeeper
with the general mood of the Republican Party and the republican primary voter, who you know he only when a plurality and not of a joy, absolute majority, the Publican primary vote, but there it is he this is who he is. This is what this what he said, and she, like everybody else, include the best republican candidates. Like Barker Rubio had no message. She had no purpose. She had an who thing to problem: everybody except she was gonna, break the glass ceiling and she was gonna. Do this better liberalism over here- a nap of liberalism over here in this nice thing over here, and do this about comparable worth Aaron. Do this about chill bring here and pay for college and do this, and he is like every these terrible, I'm gonna! negotiate trade deals, I'm not a bomb, the how ISIS I'm gonna make the country great again. He was big. She was small, he was, he was playing. You know
She was playing small ball, he was shooting, he was aiming for the fences and if you everything that we didn't like about Everything that we- and I would still argue he is not fit to presently United States is vulgar, he's crashes, he's a bad role model for four children, he's a liar his business. Practices- are- are outrageous, an unseemly. You know he defrauded people he's awful right eye dared literally. Is nothing that I would take back that I've set about him or anything that have written about him, that I would take back but He said I'm am that I am the vessel for your anger and I am promising you victories go around. I'm gonna win things. I'm gonna beat the Chinese, I'm gonna beat ISIS, I'm gonna do this and Who is she she's Well, she just a crook. She was
very stage he ran the second. She ran her, but she ran foggy bottom as a cash machine for her family foundation, whose distribution? of the foundation was getting weird million dollar gifts from for him confusion? We now know that, like her, her husband because of the foundation was getting weird million dollar gifts from foreign from foreign governments, and then She was endangering national security because of her efforts to hide the hide from discovery. All of this untoward behaviour so he's a crook she's, a worse crooks, cancel each other out there, both crooks, you know he's unseemly, she's unseemly because she's lying for the american people about the emails and unite behind very badly in that sense? So, what's left so they can cancel each other out on the bad character front, and then he's got
thing to say? And she doesn't that's. That's how I that's how I adjudicate this I even of the they each other out. I mean not just us but most of the country. Said a over and over that that he did not. The we, don't a president and they before him anyway, right because she they re ought in the end all things considered, she was were right now here's a weed out now and here's where it gets complicated m. Here's where blue liberal attacks are gonna get confusing and You know we don't know how much of this is, because she was a woman. We don't know how much of this is because he was appealing to he was either he was doing dog whistles ray sit on no other things. I mean I M too, it's. Nothing would be wrong. It's not nothing at its way more than anybody really should be comfortable with and then the other hand. What did she do? What
her entire Kenzie was premised on the notion that she was gonna get ninety five percent of the american vote, just for being a Democrat that she, they will benefit from this gigantic gender gap. Just because she was a woman, that she was going to say that she was get this enormous hispanic vote just because was bad on immigration in her lights. Well, though, so all presumptions that apparently turned out to be not true, why they turn out not true, because she was a person of equal bad character in the eyes of everybody. And when you cancel those things out, then the question is: what are you left with? What you're left with is one very discomfitting fact, which is from one by winning an overwhelming majority of the White vote right,
We were told for years the white voters on the decline right it was. Seventy was eighty four percent and nineteen eighty, its seventy four percent then Mount seventy two. Now it's gonna be seventy. But you know, seventy percent of the vote is like a fairy there is a lot of the country and if you see- forty years telling Americans that there was supposed to think of themselves, not as Americans, but as african Americans, or not as Americans, but as women are not as Americans but as Latinos at some point, the the block The element of them is gonna, look at itself and decide. You know what identity politics is how I'm taught this is what we're learning and school. This is what their teaching their kids in school. I have an identity to I'm a white guy, I'm guy and I'm getting screwed. I am voting for the guy who says you're a white guy you're getting screwed. You're not allowed to do that supposedly, because we white guys are not supposed to have ethnic. Gender or racial consciousness, but
it is inevitable if that's how you run a country, that every group is going to decide that its. If, if what makes you special The color of your skin than white is gonna become a color of your skin, but that is the greatest tragedy it is this election, for Republicans is that they have now become an identity politics party. It is inevitable, they have, they enjoyed miraculous political success, moors, Then they have experienced in the last thirty years by turning white working class voters into an interest group, just like any other, and they voted as a block, and by doing so they have. They want a bigger political of victor than any Republican has since nineteen eighty eight actually I ll. Actually I mean George George W Bush got fifty one piece the vote, but he only got two hundred, maybe six eleven year. That map is gonna, look real red and the head at the end, and that is going to be the the
the beginning middle and end. The argument moving forward is that energy politics works and that both parties are an entity. Politics, parties and probably progressive parties, parties that do not defer to small government too private sector will, of course, because because, if you governed by interest group, then you have to deliver the goods to your interest group and in some gay and here's the interesting problem. If your interest group is the we know, plurality, the majority of the country boy, that's expensive way. It's one thing to deliver goods that method. In fact, we do this. That much to be honest in this country is not so easy. You can't really right legislation to favour one group of. Another, despite what people think, but you know how do you help the white working class? You have to increase their benefits from the government in some fashion. Well, if you're, what if you're the benefits it one increase our targeted at that
those benefits are gonna, be colossal. There's. So many people out it's like a huge number of people, you gotta, sir, but what does he promised his promise to reopen things like the Pennsylvania shipyards, which have been closed for almost forty years? I mean that's just not happening right like there's a lot of things that he can. Deliver and right that here. That's the second tragedy of this thing by that may have already latte disappointment, but here too things if he can deliver, ok, not deliver, but that he can back and support and fight for that Hilary have we had declared she was going to shut down One is the coal industry and the other is the domestic cracking oil industry right right now we have fight going on in the cold at people are like occupying areas of new near an indian reservation. To prevent a pipe from being laid down to you know took two to have natural gas flow.
Through the United States? We have wars. On the? U know tracking industry, in Pennsylvania and in New York and in all sorts of places, and of course Luke Clinton literally sat on when I closed the coal industry down the Democratic Party as innovation, Endless party is decide that coal is evil and franking is evil. Well, who works in coal and fracturing white men with ice oh and high school education to have strong backs and were willing to do very difficult manual labor for good salaries and suffer the key Quincy Health consequences and physical consequences of doing so. This is the one bright spot in the industrial economy was the fact that coal came back to some degree. Steel came back to some degree, not anywhere near the where it was, and that this entire fracturing industry was created out of whole cloth in two thousand and seven following and the demo.
My party went to war on these industries, and the people who were in them are related to people in them and are related to people who would like to work in them and see them as the future of understand that they can make twenty dollars an hour where they can't may twenty they can leave where they can make. You, know, seven dollars and eighty cents in our working flipping a pizza somewhere. This was very big and no wonder they voted as a group, but I'm saying it in that sense whose people have every reason to do whatever they could. As look at West Virginia Interesting, Stryver, West Virginia West Virginia call State the West Virginia state that was a reliable democratic state. It's the state that one John F Kennedy, the presidency in nineteen sixty right, Hillary Clinton caught fewer votes in two thousand and sixteen in the presidential race. Then she got willing West Virginia in the primary, the democratic primary two thousand made.
They say, Democrats voted for her in the primary two thousand and eight who, by two thousand and sixteen touching her with a ten foot pole. She that twenty eight percent of the vote in West Virginia last night. Why does she said she was going to shut West Virginia down and put into a state of permanent economic depression? And look you know, if Hilary and do Democrats, they They thought they were offering the inclusive option. We would They were stronger together. They were not at all inclusive because they had completely left out. This segment in fact wage war on them in this. In this way, in this way, with serious consequences for West Virginia examples are really good one, because it's not like this happened overnight that either the only
Don't I remember from colleague, Karl rose first book was one in which he was telling a younger staffer in two thousand that if you devote any time time to flipping West Virginia you're fired because West Virginia Blue States always been a blue states. So it's gonna, be a blue state and was for genuine Republican, thousand and shocked everybody, and we wouldn't have had to worry about Florida if it hadn't, and that was the result of what I would. I think the democratic world has become when we were talking about earlier affair, was this sense that it is culturally ascendant liberalized is the glue binding this this disparate group of of blocks and ethnic? In economic interest, groups into one cohesive whole the idea that they are essential, and that there are some sort of ideological enemies out there over whom they can? Lord there ascendancy in
in the cultural sphere in in movies and television and film in music, and that sort of thing there's no policy preferences that bind this this group of of individuals. As you said, there are policy preferences that bind them. That's the point, their cultural liberal policy preferences, their environmental was, for example, which is not considered by environmentalists, Ba culturally liberal policy, but is culturally liberal in the sense that it is an assertion of an idea about how the world should function and what the purity of the planet is was to be verses, but that versus the verses? The labour that people have to go to to keep their machine going and have but that right there is so nice and ill defined that it's not it doesn't constitute a policy preference. I mean the sort of something that you can stamp on to it, whatever you want after the fact
Joe Mansion story, because I think this is this- is pretty interesting. I was at a meeting with Joe Mansion twenty after one of the horrible events, I think it was sandy hook that such a mansion is a was them that was the Governor West Virginia became a senator right, and so mansion is a guy from a state in which, if you say that you have only one hundred guns, they throw you out of office like that. That is it is it is. It is a gun, not gun heavy gun, loving state and mansion took on the task of being. If there were some way on earth that the democratic parties desires to institute some form of gun control after sandy hook, could find perch
with the array with whom National Rifle Association, with of whom he was a life member and who considered had considered him an ally and all accepted. He was a Democrat but and, of course, the thing was that he went to them and said well what? If we do this? What if we do that and what, if we do, the other thing and they honor? I said your crate, we're not doing any of that. You know what are you talking about you just trying to control our Gus trunk taller bullets, whatever and then he would go back to talk to a truck Schumacher, Harry ridden various other people. I know bomber and he would say well you have to understand what second amendment people are like. They are like this there like dad there, like the second, it was like he was, and he said it was like saying to them. You have to understand what child molesters or like that's what he said
he mentioned said and that that was the perspective from which, after sandy hook- and indeed I think we all know this from people. Friends of our as liberals, who loathe guns that their loathing of guns as a kind of moral is a deep, morally held view and that they believe that people who don't feel this way are have some deep monstrous love of violence. Evil in them, or something like that, and there was mansion, trying to see if there was some possible way that there could be conversation in which Democrats and Republicans then conserves liberals and second men with people and nonsense, could discuss this and he threw up his hands and went away, and it was when it was an early sign of what marker Rubio learned about the gang of eight. That is that there are some matters on which there is no possible com,
station at present, while the because the the consequences of reaching a conclusion, that's mutually amenable are terrible, to the people who, like the issue, I mean Republicans, who didn't like gang of eight, really proof heard having the issue there. So they could, you know, rally the troops around in our democratic waves and every time there's a shooting Democrats accuse people into the inner raised in particular, of having blood on its hands. They, like that they appreciated. Allies works for their people and the inner re likes it works. Their people. So You know we have. This divide that is is is unreasonable But if you're Joe Mansion at twenty six, seventeen, your state as just an seventy two percent for Trump and left to run in twenty eighteen, and you have you, you are a very popular politician in your state, and there is some ticket splitting
but you could be in the majority and then deliver some goods dear people. Why on earth will you stay Democrat now? I may he is that he is the leader of the Democratic Party of his stay, but I have no idea why he would stay Democrat, but note she might question is so they said the Democrats of sort of lived by and now died the sword of identity, and they seem now, at least in the immediate response from civic, too sue themselves with identity to took to defer this. You know I mean obviously, is John touch on before that. There's there's not nothing to it, but They are solely retreating too. This is at having a woman, hating minor pretty hating country. This is a. This is a hateful country that that that is hateful to or to rush right were exactly yes and they are they're gonna further paint themselves,
corner or their or r r is is the polarization of both sides just going to now exacerbate. I thought Democrats were so good, a Balkan rising this country that Republicans could never effectively mimic that risk that their their efficacy On that issue, and I was totally wrong as long as long as it you're, not wrong in the long term. Because again, what did you say that term promised he promised to reopen the Pennsylvania shipyards? He can't reopened the Pennsylvania shipyards if brought Obama Bomb, a promise that the oceans we're gonna heel and that then the world was getting healed by his election Donald Trump. Promised a red, a revitalization of the heavy industry in the United States that he cannot effect and therefore just as progressives have found themselves increasingly disappointed in the above
era, so disappointed that, in fact they went forty four percent in the Democratic Party for Bernie Sanders and he won nearly half the states in the when the primaries and Caucasus, so to our trump voters, very likely in twenty twenty to say what did I get? What did you give well, you made all these promises and I got nothing there's here's. The downside of that, though, is that what Donald Trump has promised our scapegoats for his very first I, under the establishment was trade war with China. That meal is referring to this website, where he had it where he had his issues. Page rights on the first issue was: download. I let me if you looked at if you clicked on it, it was how
destroy the establishment, and the second issue was trade war. Trade war in that language quotes trade war with China. Now that the practical effects of of what would be a series of escalating cascading tariffs over goods, if we were to pursue that kind, of course I am there's there is evidence that you could do it brok about imposed a terror tire tariff very early on in his in his a minute. W Bush oppose this new era and the effects of those are very predictably to make those costs higher and TIM Hake due to to make labour in those industries harder, so they backfire and that's what we're going see. We're probably going to see if that happens, and it brought in might we're going to see the goods that we export to China, get fewer people being employed in the sectors and the goods that we import from China are going to get more expensive and there's a lot of them. So,
what we're going to see then, is not necessarily a bunch of american voters who say well golly. This was terrible policy, they're gonna, say: Chow screw in us say we're getting a bad deal from China and they're gonna the Poles and vote against China than I go to the polls and say well, you know what it would be really great if we had a laissez faire economic system that that really respected open borders and free trade. While there is the progressive isn't your time, and so there is a there- is a trumpet nationalist, progressive ism that will that be
I'll. Do this train conceivably, while simultaneously spending a trillion dollars, as he said last night, on on a giant infrastructure programme to make our roads and bridges amazing and have really great airports? Now I think that that the latter is more likely to be imposed on the country than the former simply because Trump, as a builder will be most comfortable with the idea that what he wants to do is get oak order. Steel and get you know, get things going and and and build some buildings that can be called Donald Trump Airport all over the country. I still say that the interesting problem is whether Trump has over promised. What did he? What did he say in those amazing rally? Speeches to Republicans stop say that, but he would end the speeches by say: we're gonna win and we're gonna win
we're going to win and you're going to win. So much and you're going to come to me and say Mr Trump were sick of winning so much. I think we can't win. Let's win a little less this time. Well, that's really nice, but here's one example of winning or not winning. So we want to trade war with China and its there's some kind of patriotic hoo hah in relation to an all of that that, really riles up his voters and there's a really good job rolling up as voters, and then China, bombs, Taiwan or builds of other below fifteen islands, invents another fifteen islands and claims. You know two hundred miles of the nautical to unlock ones of the South China Sea as its own protect or closer to home? China attacks the American Electric written a cyber attack rapidly. Ok, but that's it. That's a that. That's that's! What I'm saying is something that's or fits more plausibly with their behaviour at present
the amateur, will the opium attack. That's right. The attack that exposed the social security Brazil, as everyone will never wanted to really I'm right, but that's it point, but I'm saying they board there already doing what I'm talking about doing they already bill these are already making these in our SAM Pet served Monsanto's week like fire, What is its assent of iron at landfill, landfills and bars, and claiming linear chinese territory, because they're not just gonna, take a trade war lying down. He thinks they will. You know he mean he thinks. Maybe you could make an agreement where they they agreed by Ex sir, why amount of american goods and they can. I he's had a great victory. I'm still saying that. These solutions are not really plausible and well maybe he can get for the years that. Their wives have to get better if ie, if it's four years later in their lives, are better what then we spent the last
five. Six years negotiating a twin, old nation, free trade. On spanning the specific south amount, Latin America, South America, in the end, the Asia Pacific region designed to him in China, because China is an economic powerhouse and if you believe, Stephen Waltz theory of international relations and alliance structures, big the aspiring had Germany's in the regions have to effects on their satellite.
Hours one. Is they forced them to give up the ghost and bandwagon along with them in order to keep themselves safe or to balance against them, with the biggest guy in the room where the biggest guy in the room and we're seeing the breakdown of that in Asia? If you believe, as I believe what happened in the Philippines with regard to dare giving up on the american Alliance and bandwagon with Russia in Beijing is a sign of things to come, and not just the evidence of the nationalistic wave and weird personalities coming to the fore in a lot of these nations, I think that has a lot to do with the political pressure is that are on the philippine people and if this deal, which doesn't look like it's gonna, go through now collapses and we lose the prestige associated with backing out of a deal that was negotiated in secret between twelve member nations. All over the world really complex deal. We just give up on it. There's gonna be a backlash in Asia and where did they turn Obviously, the PPP is dead zone even so,
If there's no, if teepee is dead and then the question is trumpets now said that he will abrogate the North American Free Trade agreement, the largest free trade zone in the war it out with the largest and most complex free trade zone in the world and he's gonna end, because it's the worst deal ever. What are the consequences? that we can't. Even you can even game that out, because there then related to the building of the wall and making Mexico pay for the wall and are we were given like? Actually, you know we're actually get a sort of go a little bit to war with Mexico I mean some version of little bits of more and them. What all of that does to improve the lives of the people who he convinced he could help because they feel like they been left behind, is not clear, but there is another group of people that he got, and this is the important thing he got. Ninety ninety five percent- the republican electorate, righty gotTa Romney vote in that
early is enough because Hilary Hilary democratic Vote cratered well. So if you got the Romany vote distributed in the difference, way nationally a middle class, irreparable class people. What is it that they want? What is it what it? What do they want fewer regulations, which he has also promised right at me. Now he he has promised this mammoth attacks cut, which will be very hard to effects because it's too big, even for without crazy tax cutters like us, seven, who think that having a corporate tax, a fifteen percent is actually pretty good idea in theory, but you know again, the question is: is there a consistent set of policies that he will an act with a republican Congress that will materially improve the lives of Americans have so he will be a revolutionary figure in american politics. We are going to enter a period like the jack solely in error that can be
named after him, in which we have a whole new set of a whole new set of ideas about how the country's gonna run and who was running at which was what happened with Damn Jackson or he's gonna fail and he's gonna feel hugely how who will be the vehicle of his failure? That's the question and I would like to pose to know because no one, I have a disagreement about who, in the dam who the Democrats could put up in twenty twenty that could take him down. Noah has a man. And I have a woman. I do don't you well. I love will let out Alexander my thinking about this, that that's where you want to go, but I'd say: ok out, I'm being too cutesy, ok, Knowest said Conall West and I'm literally saying Oprah winfried, not figuratively opera, Winfrey unseeing. If, though, if the world that we are now in is that somebody who is world famous who can get it
wow just by announcing which is coming and who is beloved of many people. She has every quality that you could possibly want in a candidate for the Democratic Party she's, a woman she's black. She's, lovable, she's outrageous she's. The richest he is unlike Donald Trump Billy there, many it, was over. She could sell fun, a campaign, she can go. Anywhere, she is partially responsible for Brok Obama lapping Hillary Clinton into As nay when she endorse them in October, they had rally in South Carolina that won him. Basically, one himself Carolina, she is extraordinarily charismatic. She, smart- is a whip and she's very left wing. While I was borrowing from my former colleague
Add hide air blog, a sit and honest blogger by the name of Allah Pandit, whose very bright guy and a great writer and use follow him. If you haven't- and the truth of that is that we ve probably the word- the lessons were probably going to learn, here from the democratic side of this thing is that centralism or centralism is defined, as the maintenance of the status quo is a loser milk test. It doesn't anybody jazzed up and it loses national elections, particularly when you're facing a select. So the antidote to that is not only celebrity but progressive ism. The kind of progressive ism that is exemplified by Elizabeth, worn and Bernie Sanders that gets has evidence that it can
get the blood flowing. Even if that doesn't matter how big that constituency is, if you can manifest that kind of excitement in a room in a stadium. That's one of the lessons we're gonna learn and makes a lot easier to learn about the fact that this democratic party is now a rump coastal urban Party now has no blue dogs has no centrists. The parties been relegated to position that it has an occupied in many decades, so this decision gets really. You need a celebrity in needs to be progressive and an idiot magically. Homogenous party, like the Democratic Party, has a lot less compunction, relentless more more dear about nominee. Somebody like maybe, but I think, is one note of caution here for the debt, for the Democrats and in the end, going down the political celebrity road, which is that I think part what happened last night is a reaction to the this with the culture our current
left liberal, celebrity culture constantly drum The same political messages to doubt down the throats of the amount of drums, something down somewhat put drumming into the heads of the american people I dont know that their do well bye bye, picking someone who has who has been sort of standing on a soap box for since the eighties about certain issues, and we know that that there is, there is cut, That's why operates such as such genius. Ideas have been saying for two years it doesn't have an issue. Oprah does How is she has feelings? She has she's a moat she's like you could be your best self. You, who can open yourself up to so many possibilities and if you're in watch her that she has never show any more, but but the big thing that she would do is that still yards have come in and she would say, and you the car and you get a car and you get a car. Will that's trump ism? Yes, come too
and round at all. What, under, under the seat in row, see you know in the stadium a see, there's a ticket get a car in the parking lot and it's all the revenge of the eighties know who we're living in design be eighties, their running round for all we know she was added. Trump wedding is well. How do we know no pointy? Oh here's. The funding has to be recruited, kind, actually wants to run you wanna bet just we're How old are you came in sixty two sixty three when she came in to American, politics in two thousand eight endorsing Obama? He was twenty five points behind Hilary a famous person in a week and he won the state in which they have that they had the big rally. She tip. The scale of the election Obama thanked her in grand park on the night of his alive,
and set it all started with opera little taste. So what Oprah doesn't need is what Trump needed and which is the other hidden. Sorry, this campaign, as the trump together with Roger Stone, using on the one, his genius, crazy, evil, machiavellian political aid, Trump Dolly had his own celebrity because of the apprentice, but from twenty ten onward went into the fever. Swamps and the email and the serve me know catfish resting places. You know in the shallows of american media and you know like them, Inquirer Alex Jones World Wrestling Federation going on these weird talk, shows you ve never heard of you now doing the birth or stuff. All of that that ended up winning him. This kind of bizarre proletarian audience that when he
got into the race and twenty fifteen suddenly out of nowhere he's got twenty percent twenty five percent of the profits from whom we don't lose from it was from people who listen to that stuff who were all Republicans who had come to no one love em, while everybody else was laughing at him, Oprah doesn't need that operate. Is there Oprah Hetero has road had her own television network, o Brazzaville magazine, she was the hot. You know she is the person with the highest popularity rating in the history of television, the highest key waiting in the history of television, and if Michael Bloomberg is a plausible candidate for the presidency, Oprah Winfrey isn't even more plausible candidate for the presidency, so keep your eyes open them cried part. Is hollowed out, which means that there are no name, a political figure, five from Michelle Obama was the other day that's gonna be floating around. Who could run in twenty twenty? Assuming that you know Trump is
gonna run again, then that name somebody that they can recruit from their ranks, except for Elizabeth, warm, you can't and what's more, the big question is: if you lose seven million voters and fifty percent of them were sixty or seventy percent of them are african American. The lesson take. Is the network in American at the top of the ticket, and who is that their about three people? There's Corey Booker, there's devolve Patrick and there is over with free and there's con. You asked if you think that Conny West, I would have said kindly West, could do it because he seems to be bipolar and deeply troubled, but I wouldn't necessarily say that those words it didn't applauded the trump either. So how much of of of the new aspects of of what Trump brought to our presidential election is going. Stay with us, namely from here on out, we'll dirty
Andrei matter will will ignorance matter will will will the humiliating secrets exposed matter meter people going to continue to not care at the end of the day or is it going to be, The trip to release their tax returns will terms in the pocket of special interests. Never pay tax wherever it is, he hasn't release its actions. Luncheon anybody ever again release their tax returns. The press is going to push them really such action jewels. They look to seek an exact revenge on your enemy, so there's in, we can run sure I've two sets of, I think I think a I think, able onto something here I said, the other day? The trump will now make it possible for politicians the future not release their tax returns right now Nobody wants to release his tax returns. Its most invasive say you can pause well since, because of Watergate, it then became the practice of politicians the show that they weren't in the pocket of special interest to release their tax returns will Thompson how can a special interests never pay tax?
However, it is, he hasn't, release its actions, one anybody ever again, beliefs, their tax returns, the press push them release their tax themselves. They look either not release in my text turns present trumpeting releases tax returns. Why should we really ever do that again? Similarly, you're gonna go do is oppo you're, going to spend all this money to get where you're not cuz. This is obviously people didn't do that much of it you're going to like go and find people who claimed that someone raped them and they was going to say. But what do you want from me, but not only did Donald Trump do x. Clinton did why and you're in your your coming coming at me with this like we ve had to present and I had stay on the desert, nor that double standards happen all the time and then the effect of a double standard is to be used, standard with I'll get people want only over thirty years. Others can one of the fears of the Republican Party think about this. One of the fears and the Republican Party was always that if your personal piccadilly were exposed, the Republican Elect
it would rise up against you because it is christian and moral and it did the maybe its hypocritical, but it doesn't like adultery doesn't like this. It doesn't like that accordingly suppose which are probably screwed up, so they'll they'll change and though the evangelical genes voted eighty one to nineteen fourteen we haven't seen numbers like that since Reagan. Eighty one to maintain for tramp tramp is the most exposed creep on these matters that we ve ever seen never seen by like this ever before, and so your republic, and what are you gonna worry about, and why, though, what he has just real, quick, because it wasn't that Donald Trump appealed, obviously to a christian ethos, is because Christians believe themselves to be under existential threat. This country in the world, and they are, but I'm just saying so it didn't matter what Donald Trump, what governing financing we matter. I mean that's that
where'd you kept suddenly. So I don't like that guy he, you know he became talk badly about women on a tape you just voted forego babbling about what ails tells you say, fails to deliver for its constituencies. Why wouldn't matter? Because it has one you quote once you let the Genie out of the bodily. Let's use all the images we can't you cross that Rubicon you get out you once you breach a social can't compact, and you shall take the compact like a mirror competence, matter it on the floor, putting it back to you, There is the work of generations before we go forward with a kind of two tier understanding. If you're a politician and have been in politics, oh you're, held to one standard, but if you're celebrity you're celebrity weren't. You know, of course, he's he's a celebrity. That's they're gonna, have be weird, weird ugly things in their pass, he's he's an outsider wit and this, I think, also
sent devises future celebrity candidates because it's hard to find, especially now with so much pervasive digital information scheme, he clean politician. I think that's what makes all of this so hard to accept this, because we had the soft bigotry, a low expectations for Democrats. Democrats were expected to be morally repugnant to not care. About indiscretions like that to put aside their value in order that respects cow. Morally repugnant, you now say tonight my hair about that sort of thing. Today's your immortalized identity, polio, was ok, they were downward hypocrites about eyes were ok, but now they are hypocrites about it. I'm sorry, that's the others. What happened that? I think saves point, which is that suddenly everyone turns into Missus Grundy like it's one thing for me to say:
Donald Trump is unfit because of the access Hollywood tape. But every single democratic liberal, whose you know like you who said trumpets disgusting who were Defending Clinton and ninety maybe eight does not get to say that I'm sorry, like I'd I'd, they're here Accuracy has now expose them. It has made it impossible for them to speak. That's when the reason didn't work, I think when it or the excess holly it didn't work because that's that's the evil. The Clinton did clip. Lowered the expectations on the personal behaviour of politicians public and still paid Democrats didn't now. Publicans will not pay. If your mark Sanford, you haven't affair somewhere you, so you got an affair somewhere, What, if your mark following and you like or making your foot, you know you're making passes it pages. You come out and say: hey, I'm gay
and I was just helping them transition to a better lifestyle is a lesson in the virtues of puritanism. You you let it slide and it keeps lighting. That's right, and you end up with you defy I'm into drug deviate too? But you know you define deviancy down and it goes down dead and climbing up. As I say, the work of generations that that's a moral awakening problem that that that that we face, but if you think about. If you think about the the insanity of thee. You know I have four children like with Israel, publicans and the primary like having war is over, who had the more wholesome family like that's over with. You could be buddy, you could do anything except maybe be like a murderer and you know and make a plausible cat if you can gets you could make a plausible case for yourself if you have something else going on. That's what the reasons why this is so terrifying show what we're happen now. You're gonna be
eighteen year old and you're at a party and you kiss a girl and she halls you up on rape charges, but the present United States do what everyone so like kids, not most people somebody on Twitter who makes a bad joke about you know something going on in the airport, it loses her job and her life like that hey unknowns. Kids, you know, kids, The Harvard soccer team, warlike rating, whether or not girls are pretty, which was all point of Facebook. They can be persecuted and destroy, but but but our people local leaders are now going to have a by? Is that how we're gonna live? That's how we're living in as as if twenty sixteen years, one whose standards or those what why why are people gotta live under this bizarre. You know puritanism on GonNA, Lib, liberal puritanism over here and
Deborah the cuban hedonism over here. That's, that's! Ok, for anybody was enough money to serve the survive. The scandal enough fame or money or social position, or being able to hire a pr firm to throw dirt if the person who, through dirty you how's that kind of war So one of the many reasons that I feel I am so decide today you now by by the fact that trust when the presidency, not that I would not have been disheartened by Hillary Clinton, the presidency- and we should say most importantly that, Every Clinton lost this race because she is a dishonest gaming I rawness Eric Turnus person who lied in front of the american people. She lied about Benghazi. She lied about the emails she's.
Two hundred and fifty days not talking to report, because she couldn't come up with a good answer about anything she could often did all that weird smiling during the debates every time. It came up. She was eight, you know she is a. She is a person who put this country's national security at risk and of an enriched herself using a public office to do so. She was also unfit for. As horrible at its in that- it's a wonderful thing that she is not president and she will not be president because she would have created a whole set of the conditions under which politicians would now be free. How is she a police, her state Department for having a guy who would like write. You a check the french government of got a writing. Your wife, a check for a million dollars is present her the president I'd say it's husband got a million dollar check from gutter is present. Why couldn't you know, secretary of State, Jake, Sullivan's, wife, get a million dollar present and then
then, with them were really living in a banana republic in the nineteenth century or something the nation of people. Not laws lower, get merit right. One of the young to go back to a point that you made a while ago, which I think is and a fitting, because we cannot went full circle on this- is how does Donald Trump deliver, and maybe he doesn't. One of the figures you emerged in this remarked in this election cycle was when he D brought her person who alleges that she was sexually assaulted by Bill Clinton. She became radiate, raped, break Leclerc, sexual assault and that she came out became of a really public figure advocating for Donald from selection, because she believes her care
there was a sultan assassinated rather by Hillary Clinton and deserve some come up and see, and wind down Trump won the election last night. One of your brother was on Twitter and she said: when does it stop hurting does is help stop? Does it make it stop hurting? No, it. Never stopped her and Donald Trump selection won't make you feel better about your lives and that's gonna be really tragic. And this is the key, the vote, the person who was rang the most wonderfully about this Kevin Williamson at National Review, who has been making an object lesson out of the argument that if you look to politics for salvation, you are you, are You know indulging in idolatry, you are, you are seeking a false god policy will not kill you. Politics will not make your life better. Petitions will not.
Say what ails you and the horror of the Trump victory. Is that that's what he promise I alone can solve well, if you're, living a debt in life. I wish your purse in the world of Jamie Vance. Hillbilly elegy Donald Trump cannot save you. Economic growth will help if he can produce it. Revitalize industrial base, will give you opportunities that you might not otherwise have. But if you're sitting there smoking pie, in one of the states that just get a liberalized marijuana use. You know one of the now we have lakes for five states can basically smoke pot at will If you're like using opioids, if you're you know, if you're living under, MOM's, couch playing video games. There is no salvation for you, but the salvation of your own soul through you know personal growth and it is,
a horror that we are now that we have a president who is essentially, while Obama promised to heal the planet. Somehow Trump has promised to heal. The broken souls of the forgotten men and women of America? That's what he said last night had three. I am I this Tribune for the forgotten men and women of America will know he isn't. He is just a guy who runs the executive branch and they're not gonna, get what they want from him and in fact he he promised them eternal salvation, because you said you will never be forgotten again right Well, the question is: who is forgotten in the course of this election, and I think one of the mysteries are one of the things at work, and I have to see what what the future It's gonna, tell is
Amid all these other promises and their own and that whole entertainment wing of the Republican Party is in love with those promises right like mass deportations, like the wall like that what happens, then you think he actually Peter Tee. The venture capitalists who made a speech about him at the National Press Club said that his voters that reporters in the media took trump literally and reporters and voters took him metaphorically. They know he doesn't want to deport him that you can't to Portland, really people day now these not gonna build a wall, its twenty feet, high Mexico's about what it means is elite, Immigration is bad, it's illegal, I'm going to stop it and then I'm going to stop people from coming in and killing people, and I'm going to get I'm going to make sure that these people don't come in and take your jobs at are we desert or what the modalities? Are? They don't really care that much. I don't know like if you're rush, limb, bar you're,
You know Sean Hannity or your Lord Ingram, Kay so you're. Here you, Sir, like come under terms. Swing and yours are part of this weird trompe in universe, but are you Pollard's gonna start say: hey where's, the wall or your college. Start saying where the deportations I'm waiting for the deportations. I hate those mexican somebody just slammed it to me in a car, doesn't have insurance and he's a mexican mice and get out of this country and no one's done anything about it. What happens then,. Well I've. If I suppose it would, it would depend upon whether or not he instituted some some. Non wall version of this metaphorical policy. You know that that next satisfied that satisfy I don't like it matters to some degree. Legal matters. I think everybody gets just keep warm by their anger and their frustrations and the scapegoats. The Chinese, the Mexicans, every
but he's gonna be a problem. Everybody's gonna be stopping them from realising his objectives, because there's always going to be some sort of enemy out there, that he can mobilise restaurant, see thy interesting. Now so, let's end on this point because who was Obama's enemy. Republicans were Obama's enemy, right, trumps, enemy, what the others know the other ring the trump does, the Trump kins and It was Republicans also. So we have this weird thing where Obama blame Republicans and anti establishment Republicans blamed Republicans and they blame democratically bed, so Republicans about two thirds of the blame and Democrats about one third. Okay, so Now Trump is not going to blame Democrats. He's a dead he's, not gonna. Blame Democrats, who's gonna blame. I say he has two possible targets.
The boy one is all these people write, the Mexicans mixing The chinese visit and the Republicans that's the thing: what happens going to be easy, going to be magnanimous and sort of not interfere with Paul Ryan becoming Speaker, we don't know. Is he going to be magnanimous and let Mitch Mcconnell be sent? Georgie leader. If there's a challenge is right: we don't, I wanted a one trillion dollar infrastructure plan and these Congress. These Republicans in Congress, would only let me pass five hundred and sixty billion dollars with offsets in taxes. And that's you know, that's why I don't have an unemployment rate that we wanted Nancy Pelosi once again to be minority leader of the house tweets at this. Morning that she's excited to work with Trump on the infrastructure, jobs bill so Republicans are like wait? We can't spend a trillion dollars in the first two weeks. Were public we're not spend a trillion dollars of infrastructure abilities like ok,
democratic and about four. So there we got it so and then what happens then- and it will always be the case for garlic Trump and for anybody else that if he makes an enemy, if he decides to target that Republicans as his, so we can remain the anti establishment guy they will always we are ready and willing, not only conservative, bright party and media but mainstream. Media that will jump right. On his side, because that's who made. But what about the idea that to which by virtue of having won the election, should should get their sort of two or three big things there. They are they should they should have a shot at at least do they do They may have a mandate for these things just because they were elected, Dodge two or three big things are big, crazy things right it mean if they fix it, if it's the trade war and a wall, what what? What? What is it?
we're still republican and about here's, what he said he wants it. She wants an infrastructure bill and he went to repeal and replace Obamacare Alfred Joint Session of Congress, in order to which would really really sandwich this era nicely, because the joint session of Congress in two thousand nine at Obama, called in or to mobilise support for breath for Barack Obama's Healthcare reform initiative will be concluded with a joint set Congress out of session to discuss repeal, I suppose so the question is: does he sit out the off the shelf plan that Paul Ryan and others have come up with to repeal and replace Obamacare? And what happens then? And then, of course, we get there really interesting quest which is to fifty one, forty, nine, Santa Republicans and control the Senate. Well, that's not enough to repeal Rob Obamacare so do the Republicans shatter the filibuster in order replace Obamacare Well, if they shatter the filibuster, replace Ramaker, suddenly Democrat
Start screaming about shattering the filibuster who, The filibuster in the first place Harry read on judicial nominations, so we're in like a whole new universe in which we're going to have this entirely and or a president. Who has no story of Hugh to you now, traditions or political norms or anything like that, and this is the thing that alarms me the most as a practical matter, not the larger alarm that I have a server. The moral framework in which the country is now can operate. But are we gonna, have systematic efforts to policy and scheduling, and you know dealing with crises in how we have a proper way that crisis are dealt with.
Or is it going to be day by day and he's just going to get angry and start tweeting angry stuff at people, and you know and and staying up late at night and getting mad, and you know giving speeches and try, basically, you now basically have we having obsessions about destroying Jeff, Flake Vera Zone and Ben SAS of governance so the two senators and Lindsey Gram who didn't vote for him, and you know that what is gonna folks M or is actually having is he gonna have become, and traded by the fact that he has now become president stated its not just about building a building or about being on a tv show or about having a steak or about you, know, screwing, with the tax system and in the uncertainty that has created by a person with the kind of personality that Donald Trump Paths and the way that he has behaved in the public eye really for the last two years.
Is a sobering prospect for any mate. Maintaining any kind of assurance that the government is acting in a kind of them. Sober and responsible manner cause you'll, never know what he's gonna go off that ever happened. It's like it was happening with Nixon behind the scenes. We know that from the tapes and from the diaries and stuff like that, and that is people who would like go off behind it They want you to arrest that guy. When you do this, you do not do that, then they would like they wouldn't listen to him because they knew he was drunk or they know it. You know he was just ranting and but Trump now go right to with change political reality with one word kind of scary, so.
We will be taking a break from pod casting next week, as I am I'm out next week. Are you guys could if you want to if something comes up, that's worth talking about, I won't be here, but if a- but no I have something interesting to talk about, they certainly can do so. I dont must it's not about me. So thanks for listening as we enter this new era. I hope that you will find commentary magazine. A source of mordant analysis and fearless commented all we are going to try to do is tell the truth. As we see it best, as you can tell, we are. In a position of independence from the incoming president
but we are said we are in a position of total independence from all from all There are political trends in the United States are all parties and trends in the United States. We will simply try to look at the world despair, surely and with fresh eyes. From the perspective the commentaries always had, which is to defend the west in its institutions, to speak out for the United States and and its role as the leader of the free world and the only representative of what is greatest best in western civilization and that's that's all. We can do that when we do best. I think we do. It well join us again, magazine, dot com. Where you get a few free reads, and then we ask you to pay one thousand nine hundred and ninety nine for a digital subscription in twenty nine. Ninety nine gets you all access, beautiful monthly magazine, delivered to your door every month as a monthly. So thank you for listening. Keep the key
Transcript generated on 2020-02-26.