The first COMMENTARY podcast of the week finds me, Abe Greenwald, and Noah Rothman wondering what a poll showing the president with 36 percent support could mean when he won the presidency with a 65 percent disapproval rating. Have the rules of American politics changed? And how does this relate to Season 7 of "Game of Thrones"? Promise: No spoilers! Give a listen.
This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
some guy. Welcome till the Commentary magazine podcast today is Monday July. Seventeen twenty seventeen. I am John PATH towards the editor of Commentary magazine. Seventy two world monthly of intellect. We'll probity, political analysis and cultural commentary from a conservative perspective. Join Us Commentary magazine dot com. We give you a few free rein, didn't ask you to subscribe, one thousand nine hundred and ninety five get to a digital subscription. Two thousand nine hundred and ninety five gets you a all access subscription with including our beautiful monthly magazine
a box eleven times a year with me is always a greenwater senior editor hello, Abe, high John and nor Rossman fresh from braving the horrors of no looking area in Rockaway Queens associated nor Rossman? I John it's bad, too bad stewards of bad, we know I had a bad weekend. So He's mean more ornery usual, you may be more organise is ornery as the drivers and Far Rockaway. You can't possibly get that say, he's ordinary farragos visas he's off just build a parking Iraqis, He'S- is angry. I sense a stark on last night's. First episode of game thrown season, seven, but we're not gonna spoil it, because that
Now what we do here commentary we provide analysis. We are not the place to go to for breaking news about game of thrones, though I will be happy to encroach on the sub standard scared. That's right now. Right boys, it's all yours, so we have the first major Poland two months from the washing pose, maybe see chose a decline in Donald Trump overall support from forty two to thirty six percent. There are great great many numbers in this ball and all, but one comes handling of the economy suggests, did. He is in some trouble now we'll talk about some of the other numbers later in the past, but reading through the stories and the reactions of the question of whether he had the lowest approval rating. At this point that the presidency of any president than the history of ever there's an overall nagging question, which is when you talk about Donald Trump approval raving. Are you talking about any
thing genuinely meaningful, because of course he got elected with sixteen sixty five percent of the country openly disapproving of him. In this pole, seventy two percent. Approve of his use of twitter, including most Republicans truck the guy, who got elected by people who disliked him. So what have we learned from appalled at says? People don't like him now or that they don't approve presidency were tell us about his future or about the room parties future. Does it tell us anything that need to know. Or are we using all the forms of calculation to understand a and unpaid so I went in and unique phenomenon whose rules we are only just beginning to discern. I am suggesting that that
is probably the case. I think Noah is sour on that idea. I have a bias again The notion that anything is unprecedented, just because I feel like I'm not aware of enough precedents make that assertion? This reminds me of the monologue by James Broadband. Jim broadband in first episode of season. Seven, seventy game thrones last night, but I'm not going to spoil it here, go to makes the same point a little. This way, okay go ahead. So, first of all, I think we're comparing apples and oranges. I don't think that it's appropriate to make the comparison between job approval numbers and a head to head Poll of Donald Trump versus a
is a goal living breathing breathing person with a record like reclining Hillary Clinton. I just don't think that there were making a comparison that you can say as accurate, because a lot of different assertion assumptions are made into a pole of somebody's java, brutal rating versus ahead that so the right there alone. I feel like we can't. We can't say that that's the case and that something that Donald Trump defenders will instantly large due to the point where it's it's hard to write it, Donald Trump without getting fan mail saying well what about Hillary Clinton, all these many months later, it'll probably be the case until night, twenty nineteen, when we get an actual physical, Then there are those that are still do it then too, so Abe. So no is making the case that only matters whether trumps approval raining is bad relative to another person courses, I'm sorry comparable rating matters, and it matters.
This on its own merits, right, not that it matters relative to some other Poles nine months ago, rain water. Wait, but let me just ask you a year that matter relative to other presidents at this stage of the presidency. That's how the washing post framed its new stories about this was that his where's were worse than anybody's. Including Gerald Forwards in jail for it had passed. Nixon by this point, which was, I think, the most singularly unpopular present. Until decision and a first year in our lifetimes, but you know Bill Clinton. There was a It was forty three percent of the vote. He was at sixty percent and he had a terrible first couple of months and he was somewhere close to sixty. When people ask do you know, do you approve or disapprove of him in nineteen? Ninety, three Everybody else is better often than than Trump. Was that a significant metric,
Then, comparing him dead people previous to him right, I'm inclined to think it's not terribly significant, because I happen to think that while it is true that sort of we should always assume nothing is- is unprecedented to begin with at the same time, sweeping red defining change is also not unprecedented, Cunt is to undergo enormous shifts and that that be happening as well. It's not it's not that just because the what trump thanks to the presidency. Look so revolutionary That doesn't mean bad We should always assume that the old order can always be contained,
To me, that's not the definition of of being president ok, but so you, the argument here then you are making, is the trump may be at the forefront of a vast, political, maybe serve the harbinger of a new political moment and therefore looking at him and thirty, six percent doesn't mean anything. I would argue almost there worse in very small, bore that tromp was a singular until until its proven otherwise trouble completely singular phenomenon, and that the single phenomenon has different rules from other phenomena, entirely: a personality driven presidency that people voted for him part because they didn't like him or they thought he was a jerk, but he was our jerk or was a jerk, but at least he wasn't a crock like Hilary, or he was a crook, but it wasn't a crook like Hilary, but he was a kind of crook who could
He knew how crookedness worked and he could serve solve problems, or any measure of that, but it's all focused on him so that people evaluating him. Are evaluating him and that what we would classically do when we're talking about six months old, Since you say what has he done How is he handled the powers of the presidency? How is he worked with Washington, All of those are, of course, absolutely horrible as a as a general metric, except if you like, some of the unilateral thinks he's done like spend regulations or pull out of the Paris climate of corridor. You know ways is applied minced various offices, but they don't care the question the people like him, look at this and say it's terrible ago from forty two to thirty six by you, also look at it and say
Oh, given everything we ve read and the way people are talking about him and the fact that we are focusing on the question of whether or not the election was interfered with by Russia and with this happening and that happening the other thing at emoluments that he should be ten percent. I agree with you and I think I think part of why Do these things don't matter as much with him is because the important factor by trumpet ie- is this sort of ambassador for aid, certain cultural enclaves, and as long as he is that no matter his failings as powerless. The failings in his organizational failings that is it is. It is his statuses at ambassador that that is his strength. I think that that's actually really put. Hidden on the head, and that's why that word. We should be cautious about saying that every has changed. Voters are transactional, a new identified a service that Donald Trump provides them, whether or not he deliver.
An ex legislation, his affectation, his prickly manner, and the effect to which he has driven the left. Insane is a transaction and Republicans appreciate that, and that same pull that we're discussing talked about how down from above water, on the economy by forty three to forty one percent, while above his job privilege rating people like the economy under Donald Trump. No democratic on it, Herman, however, that in the origins of it, what have you doesn't matter? That's the effect that he's having and that's voter singular number. One issue always is and state of the economy and jobless, and if we're going to find a thing for which you should you know four, which trumped should have over over water over the opposite of underwater brewer rating is you'll, be there. Finally, for the simple reason that the stock market is up forty five hundred points since as election, so as a person of an idea of him as a business man been right, why we should, because I'm just saying that their actual results right
but their actual results right but their actual results. In other words, like ITALY, I dont think he is response. He is partially responsible or his elect. It is partly responsible for the stock market rally of the last eight months, because the mark was frozen in place for a long time, because uncertainty and because Obama was over regulatory lunatic and trump comes in, and there like well he's gonna, deregulate, stuff and they'll be a big tax. Cod and It's all serve anticipatory to the possibilities of economic growth. Now what happens if everything goes south over the next month, healthcare reform dies and therefore any significant tax reform, and tax cutting dies because you need one would do you need one before it can have the other now what happens is job of rural raining goes from thirty. Six to thirty. Four right and we're haven't you ever that marvelous conversation bought okay, so if nor saying this job hasn't changed a lot. But boy does this whole political environment feel a lot
why is it Filmore shaky, because there will be real world consequences if the world understands that, whatever economic liberation Trump might have suggested to Wall Street until the markets after the of a regulatory atmosphere of the Obama. Here's wasn't actually gonna happen. Then then the markets get up calibrate and we calculate where it should be in the next six to twelve and his prickly affectation looks a lot less like confidence and more like what more la more like over compensation. And you no longer have the transactional effect, so there's still be plenty of people who say I approve of trumpets, because I don't wanna get pollsters the satisfaction of saying otherwise Redwood rare Syria. That's an interesting point, okay, so that this is something we were so think about. This April reacted You say the word voter you pay, the news raises. Yes, so you know
There are these stories that say that this apple with Russia that have with Russia die. The term junior met with Russian cut out saying he would love to get information harmful, pillory from the russian government. What, whether the Russia story and the voter says I don't care, I dont care and its fake news now. Does he think it's fake news? maybe so that care movie, there's really care. Does they think it's vagueness, or does he read the pall question accurately as being I'm trying to ask you a question forty different ways to get you say you don't like Trumpery, don't you disapprove of Trump and that Republican should like Trump and there? like saying I'm onto I what the Madame meaning of these messages are, I'm smarter than you think I am, and I'm gonna say I dont care or I dont disapprove is handling of Russia.
Because I'm I say I disapprove Sally Russia, you're gonna, do right a big headlines. Saying Republic we disapprove of his handling of Russia. What do you think of that? I think is tremendous point and I think it Also speaks, though, to that is eight. That is a very general when type of connection they have with him, so regard of whether they ve actually think it's fake news or whether they think he's in did heat. He did the wrong thing. The fat they're so defensive on the on the top of the fact that they don't that they'd rather aligned with him against against this. You know this. This did they did the centres of the trap easing of itself a kind of support why they raise an interesting question about the match. Duration after forty years of a series of ideas about how the culture as a raid the trumpets taking advantage of a somewhat unique fashion that I'm not
He deserves to have taken advantage of, but there it is, and he he does it very consciously witches media bias, liberal or culture. Unesco a general. What what what John Corey called the dominant media culture the universities, the elites. All lining up against the interests of what people take to be heard. The proper ordinary America and you know, though, coasts against me. You know against the the heartland of the country and people are now much more conscious of this and, as I say, see, the met a meanings in the way these stories are developed and focused, so it's like this story exists to get Republicans. I am not going to participate in your shall again so there. Like it's like their mega the, Questions are mega there. There taken out
side in an effort to create the conditions under which trumpets caused to fall into political crisis among his own kind. So their delight Lee shaded and then people, you wouldn't expect, but they ve been trained by Fox and by gentle again by thirty forty years of genuine bias. To say. I'm onto you, ok, this is definitely not unprecedented. Every single time the voters were asked about Obama care. They answered it as though it was a proxy for support for Brok, Obama right in an hour when, when we had the bottom fall out in October of twenty three November, twenty thirteen after the website crashed and everything that was seen by a bomb as voters to say you didn't approve of the health care bill was to say you didn't approved the president and it wasn't answered honestly. We
We ve been in this position before and that's why I'm hesitant to say we can't we are babes in the woods a bubble in some sort of purgatory in which we can know which is up or down. I want you. I think I don't think that you know the wheels of history of stop running, so I agree with I'm just saying I think it's it's means that getting actual honest picture of where the electorate is and how it's going to respond in twenty eighteen What are you twenty is: is a little more difficult, the same conditions as we said, prevailed and twenty thirteen and twenty fourteen, and we have serious polling errors that have twenty fourteen right. Nobody saw wave coming until it actual right. Nobody saw every nineteen eighty, which I think was the last the less a realignment. We saw an american politics,
Finally before now, I'm in real wholesale realignment was night was the election of nineteen eighty and if you look at the final pulling in the week before Ronald Reagan, one by ten points he was up three. He fell. I mean that was a gigantic, Here I got into a bit of a tussle with our in Michigan, who is who went to the decision desk at Fox NEWS, in which I said look people lie to exit pollster because it was just. It. Wasn't the final appalling was also the exit polls which totally calculated where how big the Reagan Three was one forty states. He didn't just win He didn't just when fifty two forty when forty states, that was not indicated the the appalling. So as they will look, people lied to the exit pollsters that came out of polling places, they were voting for Reagan and they were doing something that they thought in a way that is after case now was socially undesirable and they told the exit pollsters that they voted for card. Her. Because they didn't know, giants probably more like Carter.
No, I mean we know this by the way delivered. Nineteen not to get off on a toll tangent, but you know one thousand nine hundred and eighty in the in Brooklyn and the district that eventually they became the winners. District, though, was Chuck tumors and Stephen, so large as before it. Rain that fifty percent of the vote in the exit polls. It said that Anderson gotten twenty two percent of our when he got ten, which means that people, came out of the poles and said they voted for Anderson when they voted for re and because it because the examples them we're very detailed and comprehensive, and they talk to a lot of people and there were different exit polls to they. What wasn't all this consortium where there is only one example So we have a history of this, but I think what We did so in in realignments, right people, you don't see it It's coming right, so Obama realign the country at all levels except the presidential level from to them. Agenda, two thousand sixteen house go,
Santa goes. You know, thousand we're legislates, go fourteen governorship, go total desolation, democratic party trump is cut of the final element us and it, and it will happen in a way that was much less commanding out to me. Others rikers. He lost through walls, my three million votes nationally, he won narrow electoral victory to states going the other way, and we now he once river and six to two hundred and whatever, and if you know Pennsylvania, Michigan and, on the other way, Hilary. What ones It's a weird set of circumstances like it. Wasn't it wasn't a wholesale realignment in any way, shape or form. It has Then he would have one forty states, one by ten points. Quite the opposite. I mean he lost and one well. I suppose you could make the case that Donald Trump was a really poor ambassador for a general realignment that has been happening over the court
the Obama period, if it is a realignment, we don't really know whether it is in nobody's besides us, I can see, is under even even entertaining the notion that were in some sort of a realignment says, but nobody aim Abe earlier before the podcast Keener proposed The idea that we might be in a realignment, real I'm. It isn't necessarily political, but cultural, like what did you say you said Matvey me. Will the interesting thing about this is it turns out? a b b left hasn't one, the cultural wars with which was this sort of a foregone conclusion up until now. Well, meaning they got gay marriage, they ve gotten serve trends, gender transgender Some has now become a server accepted practice radical new kind of configurations of the family.
Abortion on demand and abortion will never be overturned by the Supreme Court. What else so that at that, plenty criteria yet, but so The question, then, is all of this happening with again liberals holding live like this but the positions at the summits of the culture did they weapon eyes. Everyone who was not part of that consensus right right, yeah. I think that's true. I mean Rachel. Technically they want it may make innovative. These are sort of These are worded. Factories are mostly right. These are most rectories that are while some of them are state level well on a referendum in Israel when the fact that abortion is down- and you have cultural- stones, like M Tvs programme about young mothers, which has had a demonstrable improvable
impact on a younger generation which has become less favourable towards abortion, as a result was theirs fewer abortions, and these are things that are, said, the court's, mostly the road, but nobody in other words. So so so gay marriage was Accord victory justice Robert Wade was of abortion. Victory port driven gay marriage has been driven mostly by the courts. Now inclusive two thousand for the other week. You you said that this is that that conservatives undervalue their cultural victor. Is you said that an illusory idea, because mostly those victories wherein the courts, for example, a weakening of restrictions on gun ownership, the weakening of restrictions on political speech. These are things that conservatives have won in the courts, but you said you know, take technologies Is he a little bit because their their court victories are not branch? Ok, but no, notably to its international that Iceland, for, I think
as the cultured shifted in the direction that the left ones? I think undoubtedly, but I think what this war up was this enormous swamp the country and said what what is all this is that Europe has Part of the cultural, the cultural level, part of what they want is not just these victories, but they want to keep everyone caring about them and part of the objection to it is is like I just don't even care anymore, and you know me right and yet about Eric Erikson's raise them. It is. It is this it is. It is not enough for you to be too to acquiesce the gay marriage. You will make the cake. Yes, you will provide the flowers you come to the ceremony. You will provide the services you was upright, you will you will your views, your deeply held personal or religious views will be,
driven from the public square and the private square and every square and I and will be pipe. And and the opposition to those views we piped into your home every a vip, the media right. What whether you, whether you participate or not, and the interesting thing about use me a trump as an ambassador for the rejection of this is that he put he doesn't care about that stuff, which is which is kind of the point. It's kind of like I don't care, but we got problems. I don't care where people can get any bathroom they wanted to at Saint I'm home help ill will bow to the marvellous and an old it'll do what they want, but it's almost an extra appeal that he doesn't care right. Ok, so this gets, point from years and years ago. So who'd you, if you're a pro lifer who do you like.
You love, George, W Bush right he's in evangelical. He comes to office. This is deeply held conviction, he'll, pray with you, hillside gas, do you he'll do this become into a meaning. Whether many says brother in Christ, I, we don't have the lift I can do x. I we lifted the Mexico, we we know we re, impose them Exocet restrictions, I got nothing else, I can do, but let's fallen, our knees and pray together and then, his father's father was pro choice until one thousand nine hundred and eighty eight, and what is Father Joe's father said. Okay, I give in. I am now pro life. I accept that I'm pro life what do you need from be for me to prove to you that I am pro life there like? While we need the house itself in her human services, those secretary, and we need this- that we need, that agency and we need this, and you have to make this speech, and you have to do this. You have to do. That is like ok, I'll do it. You want
tell me just tell me what you want I'll give it to you, so it that's transactional. That's like perfectly transactional. You dont need some he who believe was with you, you need some We will do what you want him to do and will will say. I ignore, but your power acknowledge your authority, and I will do it you want, so that you give me what I need that's act. The classic political transaction schooling. You know what else is a classic transaction, a mad um, happy yet again to welcome the great courses plus till the commentary pike. Does one of our advertisers and AIDS. Perfect time to talk about this, because we're talking about the question whether now we're at a moment of great historical transition, and we have to know the details of how we got here and one way of doing that is by watching the great courses plus we so many people find it so satisfying to learn from trusted engaging experts
online on our tablets on our computers. So I guess you sit in other most fascinating university courses and it's been a lecture room at the University of thirty five year. So it's kind of I hated at the time but I'm getting more interested in now for our own enjoyment of all schedules and there's unlimited access, two thousand, The fastening video lectures topics like politics, economics, even photography or cooking, so we ve been enjoying the course history, the Supreme Court. Aids when watching it a bizarre there. They watch her I'd known no was like in a car driving around all weekend, and I was driving to and from all over the place in the car, so I didn't have a chance to monitor this one, but Abe both enjoyed it and had some m m. We were stimulated to disabuse on shore your butt but lad less and less time. These did. The great benefit is because the comprehensive knowledge at the that pressure has been
court and also an Indian really helps demystify all the illegal machinery and the and the evolution of the court, and one of the interesting things is. When we talk about change whether unprecedented or not the founders didn't vision, the Supreme Court as being served perpetually involved in in with with with the states when, when the court's inception, because the the business of the states in the business of the of what was becoming the United States where it was sort of so radically different at the time they assume that the court would sort of just you know, handle piracy in and in a way accusation earnings like the rest periods between Congress and the second right right exactly, but that the states were pretty much independent actors right turned out the right, theoretical construction of the country. Wasn't the practical actions. Action of the country as it when so so, so things do changed from which they do
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one of the sponsor the commentary podcast now so Trump weapon icing. His most passionate supporters use the culture war really as his as his weapon, saying there against you, there against you like their against me we are the same. I'm trying to fix broken here and they're coming to me the way they came at you trying to get your guns and trying to get your face. You know and They may seem kind to accept the idea that bad bad news, is fake news that if there is a story that is, that is, puts the Trump administration in a bad light. The story is discreditable simply because it comes from the media.
The media are hostile and are therefore the bias, makes it all fake, That is, that's a potent weapon to protect someone from to solidify the floor, let's say under Trump support, so. There are, if you could say, a third of the country, a third of people in the country who accept this contention, basically that he, is there to get him and they are not participating in it. Now you can't with a third country support. But you know like end up in the territory that the south Korean pre, air who was ousted was, because she was at five or four percent support when she was asked it well, I mean, if we're going to contain
This is the south korean analogy, with the current situation was that she had offended cultural values in a way that were absolutely redeemable than she had engaged in some serious corruption that she had people around her that contests. Who for who were? You know- and I know that she had missed this funeral for this over its Dover triggers. Hang all of this all this redounds trumps time troubles were downstairs benefit. I think that the chicken eggs situation our he. I was really media bias thing. The fake news were happy. What comes first, the idea that everything's fake news, therefore I'm not gonna, believe it because of Trump or I believe, Trump. Therefore, everything is fake news and it seems like a distinction without a difference. But a really does at her because of your saying that I'm not gonna believe all this fake news, because it renounced poorly. Only president, then, that's not and honestly held position that something you reason yours
and you know, I'm saying you can email and spells speaks to what we're talking about, which is this question the meadow message or words there saying I'm saying it's fake news, because I know what you are you, a purpose? You have an underlying purpose, your underlining purposes, to elect Democrats, whom I loathe and I'm not playing this game with you. So That's what you want. Everything that you direct you send out into the ether is for this overall purpose, Therefore, I am not going to trust that you're telling me the truth about the stories that you're put now, because you have you have you're being disingenuous. Your purpose is a political and ideological one. It is not the purpose of gay and gathering fact, Ben and and providing. I just think we're talking about a very small segment of society. There are we a much smaller say? Yes, I think we're talking about us and as a sliver of Donald Trump support from his job approval ratings, not his head to head support, verses and unknown Democrat.
Who are saying that there can be with him beginning or you holy water. There are others who earthly with another thirty four thirty five percent of Republicans would not believe. We believe it why would they believe? We're? U dont. You dont in in general believe that in the newsrooms you know of our leading liberal media institutions ninety percent down when they vote nine percent democratic. They certainly cultural terms. They are almost uniformly left liberal in the purple, and the way that they will propose stories- I am I mean- I'm worked in the mainstream media for thirty five years. Like it's true now, That's where I disagree is, I think, if you're a sophisticated, person you can glean from the bottle. You can get through the biased to see the fact, but the bias is real and if you,
The problem is that these institutions have the power to destroy them, Z in your views than you, then then it is to your interest to say I don't must you I want you to fail. I want you to die. I want you to choke. I want you to be taken over by you know by their national and Republicans would say most conservative to say then just about every self identified Republican would say that we cannot quantify precisely how many people really genuinely think that all bad news for Trump is fake news and those Republicans you think saying otherwise would be to reflect poorly on the president of your hand. However, ok, we know, because we know in this Paul right. We know that somewhere his approval raving whist organs is somewhere between seventy and eighty percent is what my point was going. Go ahead. This pole, which is awful for Donald Trump, is actually pretty good. For and when it comes to the Republicans, because he's got eighty two percent of Republicans who say they their approve of him, some
strongly or really strongly now, if you break them down and ends up being, sixty two percent really strongly approve of their president law. Another twenty percent are just kind of lukewarm bout. It will give you some indication of those who think that this false fake media thing is real. This is actually a pretty good pull for Donald Trump, because if you look through June, you had at least for four years and are probably morgue. They stop paying attention to it, but at a certain point there were at least for poles that showed Republicans support for Donald Trump under eighty percent, a few of a more even closer to seventy percent, which is really dangers on territory for republican seeking ray election, we had in this Washington Post ABC News for a survey of the counties that Donald Trump flipped from Barack Obama over to him and, among them forty four percent approve of his job as an office, while fifty one percent disapprove, no matter how you spin it. These are bad numbers for this president and they include
Republicans, except if Johns original contention hold, which is that people can support him while disapproving of the job he does, because I think You got your when you talked about the transaction, that's expected of him! Now talk about job approval. What's the job what's the job, they expect of him he's doing that job which doesn't have to do with public. This is the question of whether or not he isn't he is the most, sl identity. Politics politician that we ve seen because what he has done is he has he saw where he saw understanding whatever doesn't matter, but that he saw that the white work, the famous, W W C. The white working classes are white males in the it states were primed for being
treated as though they were a cohesive group that was under attack by African Americans, Muslims, women, women's groups, gay people, whatever that they word that that they become the whipping whipping boys of of Amerika. It was the object of scorn, derision and considered, though you now, the evil of of of humankind and they were going to sit down and taken any more than you can only You can only throw this crap at people before they start saying. Screw buddy, I'm you know you stink, you're, the bad person you you suck and at least that is Trump bright. That's that's! That is trumps appeal, Those of us who find that repulsive doesn't doesn't matter, and it doesn't if they find him repulsive riverlike bill. Could we not bill Clinton after,
Linsky Gate had this incredibly low personal approval rating. He left office very popular, so you can also. Although in this case we are talking about people who would probably flip this like they'll like forever, because he represents their interests in a funny way, like Obama, like the deepest Obama supporters, email serve african Americans, theirs a great Essen else, get where now there's a panel of four african american activists and there like about this- wrong and that the using runs like what would it take for you to vote against a ballot was like a media. Hitting the earth like there was the home I was. There was no way on earth that anyone can actually vote against them. It was too fantastic that he was present in the first place and what it meant was to power for them, and it was funny- and it was funny because it was true- was organisms and would say right, and this is of true of Trump question,
whether the numbers are, if they are the only people that support him now, if they are the only people, if he is shorn of everyone, but them he can win the presidency no because Barack Obama had a lot of other people who supported it. We're agony on election day. He had a majority support in job brutal, right and from his many miles away from that. Well? You know, as we said before, on the spot cast. Who's that are important to conservatives are really important to conservatives. They take it as little matter of life and that serious semi on- and you know, generally speaking, and they come ahead. May vote about these issues Democrat. Maybe not so much in the camps, giving passions about Trump now who's whose who is sort of more white hot. You know that the people who do you think of him is it. Is it threats to the country and ended and the planet or the
the white Working class it he represents in and that want to defend him against all comers right well. So it's It's interesting to do. There said six months into a presidency, of course goes its or silly like should be given time we should be, but you know we need one does the sense that you are seeing what the presidency is going to be like because it's about him because it's him because he won't change and the real quick the man is how he will be responded to when he leaves We responded to so that's twenty eighteen when, when the election midterm election, which is a prey always a proxy for forever, in the end that the national nation seems to have for the president and then twenty twenty, of course Soami runs again there. So what is it based on what we see in this pole and all these numbers and all that the Democrats need to do in order to succeed in their goal of you now
Chewing into republican dominance on Capital Hill and then knocking Trump off because, right now it doesn't look like it looks like these mid term. The failures of Republicans in these special elections and twenty seventeen, They try, they tried to recruit or they tried to run sort of appropriate to these districts, particularly the Georgia district that John O soft laughed at lost after raising thirty million dollars for a single how seat, but he tried re tried to warn us of fiscally responsible person and I didn't have the his views were all them different from Karen handles the Republicans, except on certain kinds of social issues,
there. They have a temptation that there are enough to deal with, which is that there are. They gonna run as the MSNBC nighttime line up or they are, they gonna, try to run to win and twenty eighteen and then find somebody who will not be the perfect storm horrible candidates. Hillary Clinton was okay, so Democrats over performed in all of these special elections that they lost. Yes, they dare to various degrees, but quite a bit. They rank It's that were relevant to those districts. It's very hard to flip a special action right, rarely happens. It's hard to judge you're, making macadam signs are already still making that case. Republican recruiting has been awful. Republicans are bowing out of these races
They don't seem to twenty eighteen rates when Ethiopia democratic scrutiny has been pretty good. Democratic fundraising has been pretty good republican, fundraising, also not about, but generally what it looks like that nobody seems to want to stay, about is that it looks like it's gonna be just like every other mid term has been in this century, with the exception of two thousand to a negative referendum on the presidency. We don't the indication is gonna, be otherwise it's about it that we're talking about these sort of intangibles of care really put our finger on, but may be sorted kind of change the whole paradigm. That's why I'm like? I don't know but they also like ever all the other elections whom you mentioned Dundee be encumbered, went onto rehashing this is not a reflection on Donald Trump reelection products, merely the fact that Republicans are probably going to take the hit for what is used,
we the case with. Well, I lose hours on the present right. There are two places that they'll take the head. If they take the right, one is the House of Representatives and the other is governor ships, probably told twenty five. The thirties recover ships that are coming up between eight and that makes them targets profligate Democrats. Only two and twenty four seats in the house to take the house. They there are twenty three districts of Hillary Clinton, one, the democratic Republican Servan, though not often in companies, not easy, even if
even a third distrigas training away from you in ecologically sound. It is a much harder. Lift. Democrats only need to win two seats in the Senate, but they are defending their. They have ten seeds up in states the Trump One, and there are only two c I now so that they have real there they're the ones who are in trouble in theory in twenty eighteen and if they don't perform badly loads of, they don't lose seats and everything stays the same or they say when a seat that will be the equivalent of a landslide and the Senate, because you know we were of that, because the the landscape of soap, we were talking before the podcast about whether or not you can judge trumps job approval rating and how that judges, hazardous, obsesses performance, visa, be a Democrat, and I was saying that I'd like to see
his numbers verses, a generic Democrat, a generic democratic presidential candidate. I dont know if that pull has ever been conducted, its virtually worthless, but I think it would do a better job of assessing his electoral viability because it will create in the minds of voters there ideal democratic candidate and then from there. You can see. Where Donald Trump would perform in a head to head, because otherwise, Europe assessing his job approval rating, a sort of vague. We know that people voted for him who didn't approve of them anyway, and it was all had to do with Hillary Clinton, so we can really became really gauge his electoral elect ability. Not now we certainly can do it based on job reproval ratings him in a vacuum he's gonna face in our home. There remember when we thought it. Twenty fifty him twice extreme could not be the republican nominee. We were flying in the face of data. That said, he was going to be. The republican mommy lead here,
the primaries from the week in a week in to his declaring himself, the nominee idea of declaring himself accounted for office never lost one early states. You know blob, I you know I mean so, you were going on the basis that, in a political reality was gonna set him. He was going to blow himself up right, but it, but the data did not support them. So, where Noah's argument here is strongest, I think, is that the data do not support the idea. The trump as a strong president, also strong support and with the ability death defy police. Realities and the and the history of the United States, a sort of marshalling his own supporters against the Republican Party in a sort of tappin way. Buddy foreshadow something really serious according to. We have reports today that he that the president's advisers met with potential
Primary challengers for Senator Jeff Flake who's, the guy he doesn't like in its day. That's not very friendly to Republicans these days. We have evidence that the president intends to run against the healthcare bill in the event that he doesn't, like
or that will run against the Senate Majority leader, if he doesn't get a bill at all on the president's sort are going to be out for himself and to the extent that he can take his supporters away from the Republicans and disenchant them with the Republican Senate majority, which is totally possible, it doesn't seem to me like we're. Gonna have. As you know, we can say that the president is gonna, be here in a thud of fortress that won't be assailed by Democrats from Congress Abe. So, as you know, Machiavelli said in this very room by fear of him by love, and obviously this circumstance for trumpet republican regulars is. That is that he is ruling by fear. Rather love the ordinary politicians look at him and they said it. I quite understand how he did it. They know he has a connection to voters that they don't have and their terrified of getting crosswise of him, because he may be able to ignite populous brushfires against them that they won't be able to
crawls. I think that's part of what those talking about here. If he's not that strong, what what did they have to fear right right for hustle essential? Obviously they think he is that they are there they are aware of. Some sort of I don't know sort of there is some sort of strength that that the policy, for example, don't capture, and I think there may be they be wise, dated two too to be concerned about that. Well, I mean so we thought again, twelve fifteen twenty. Sixteen against the day, another he couldn't be elects. Probably one of the reasons for that was that there were all these intermediaries, intermediate institutions in the past that had done something to retard the growth and strength of Canada, of insurgents. Candidates like him, like Jesse Jackson and ninety four, for example, like you,
stop them. They stop them in their tracks by withholding support by rallying Weena, by getting institutional backers to withdraw their support wherever they bought them off in some fashion. The that was missing from the Trump thing was the fact that his sixteen other rivals chose to leave him alone because they were all afraid that they would trigger a third, the party challenge from him and they thought he could kill. The other guy and they would benefit and be left standing, What's missing from the Trump calculation in terms of his political success, power is if the Republican Party Map so hollow nationally, if you now job Bush and Marco Rubio and then tat proves had all Marshall, their resources in September of twenty fifteen to destroy tromp, we'll make it impossible for him to get the republican nomination in some fashion,
other, even though it might have meant that he would run third party. Obviously the end result wouldn't have been him being the rubble mommy and the president. Republicans are still afraid of Trump now when his approval rating, is as bad as no other suggested is shouldn't Republicans if he plays the scheme with them. They stand up to him, he's going to try to screw them anyway, according according the new stories, is going to try to get Jeff Flake defeated. Carl defeated, I made stupid like why he would want to harm there? working party when their his only vehicle for success. But that's who is not only matters with your own voters? Right, I mean I've. Donald Trump is at eighty two
among Republicans right now then, and you want to survive a primary challenge. Then that's your only consideration. I dont know what his balls are in Arizona among Arizona Republicans. I imagine the pretty good among Arizona organs right, so that's Jeff Legs consideration now in the general election, because the other direction, but is all personal electoral chemicals. But I also think you know what part of what we Republicans fear is that they still can't figure him out and they figure this phenomenon out, and I think it did. This is but I think he has broken the mould. Everything is thinkable now it's it's! It's thinkable that he has some kind of hidden support and in the end, and can exert some kind of pressure on them that they can. Its thinkable, for example, for the Democrats now to worry about something like a rock saying, he's gonna run for Senate? I think this is
This is the sort of change ethic, whether we do there's it. There's a desperate attempted to understand this Devon and since Noah can actually, rather at their head Ramblas happening in everyone's cautious. The other possibility is that term. What's thinkable is that he will blow the Senate majority out of anger, like that, that's the other part of it is whether that is incompetence or simply age or whatever that you know here, who actively worked, get Jeff Lake defeated, even if that means it goes from fifty to fifty one twenty nineteen, he will actively work to oust Mitch Mcconnell, even though much Mcconnell is extraordinarily effective send it majority leader in some islands, by some calculations and.
You know that you don't know where his rage will take him or where, or you know, is the vet. If he's listening to ban in this week, instead of Reince Priebus- and if he's this- and if he's that and that's the mystery- is that his motivations are very hard to fathom, is he generated by? Does he wish, as you would that all he wants to be a success. It will be a successful resolution. Reelected Hilda schools will be named after him. People right songs about me will be a full Piero. All that or motivated by anger and rage and a desire to destroy, and that, I think, is what nobody. Nobody in his own party really knows: women I mean I want to know when it becomes boring for us to have this conversation. You know what I mean like fur. For us. This is a fascinating. Thought experiment was on ever boring. Don't talk about Obama, Donald Trump? Yes, it was ever born. I don't think it was ever bladder started with his stick, got silly and of not
and the idea that he had changed. The political landscape was self evidently false and his demeanor became abrasive walk. I couldn't I mean I actually did find baby the Obama age eventually very boring. The reason that I dont suspect it will ever find this boring is because it's far more exotic to me the be low four Obama was so in keeping with. Where I live in and everyone I interact with New York that it was it was it was. The european exotic would mean it would be shorter line. Orbits is eventually that that, whereas here's wide disagree with you about a Mamma, because it wasn't
so Bahman whatever's political machinations. Where was the then they would turn around and he was on Mark Marin's podcast or he was on with Zack out. I value that that was set out. How urgently is an anomaly ox? It doesn't matter that that was that he was an in he manage to create new storylines plot lines, questions about the legitimacy of we know what he was doing his present and I think arguably you can make the case it. He liked Brooklyn before him, and particularly he that he help create the conditions under which you can a president Trump, because he so d glamorize Amy was glamorous figure, but he he p lower. Level of the presidency. To you now We haven't conferences with John Stewart. John Stewart could say: hey do Joe is not wearing a tie on than on J Leno Slow jammed. The news low Jana knows that he was. He was doing things that made the idea
of a guy like Trump much more think it would be. The trumpet never appear without a tie on television, but you know that these are different. Innovation at an end. I think these guys are infinitely interesting and for rhythm, yet in bushes, infinitely interesting and he got boring, but was interesting as it, because there there there's but there is always something new about them, there's something for them. There are only forty votes. Only forty five people have done this in american history. Forty four forty forces eyes, bang that eventually the we are, the one we ve been waiting for the seas are gonna retired. Stick became more interesting in for the fact that it had was self evidently delusional, and I think we get to that point sooner rather than later, fair enough. And it could look. I mean the truth is that the public,
we're exhausted. Most of the leader, both of liberal Washington and Liberal New York and liberal enclaves, are exhaust by this presidency, its exhausting and their very afterwards, as I'm so exhausted, exhausting all of that is probably catnip to his deepest supporters, but in own Everyone is eventually gonna get sick of this crap. You know, I mean the twitter number for them. Was very interesting like even is the supporters, are not that comfortable with the way he uses twitter, they don't think it's helpful to him, but this report, in which we We are worried about that, but they dont support this. So that's a colonel of something that you now represents a preparation remember, he said to markedly, with its earlier times less than peace published last week. He said there trend
Take my voice away. I will never leave twitter, so he looks a twitter as the most important aspect was presidency in some fashion. It's where his voice comes out most strongly and maybe there's the gap see here. Things that's a twitter presidency and even his supporters are like twitter presidency? I mean I want that twitter presidency also on the matter of competing boring this of the of the two administration. I think I think you it's not fair to two two acquainted too. I think, Trump leaving much larger mark on our politics when, when all this is over one one way or the other, I mean it's, it's I think, there's something bigger Stranger uglier happening now, but it's you know, he's he's. I think he will not leave
our politics, untouched and Mama sort. I would not be so sure that, because if the healthcare reform package fails in the Senate the most important domestic event of the first twenty years, the twenty first century will have been the passage in the survival of a bomb care so and there will be nothing tromp as the way that you know Bush will have had nine eleven and a rock and a will have had Obamacare. Anything Trump will have a thing. I'm a widow because this up as the labelling is the right, don't know anything, we don't know everything's when adult nowhere, who is gonna rule the seven kingdoms we dont a weather, diametric cigar him is going to do is you know, is going to ride the dragons, we don't know, but I dont want to spoil the seventh season of game of thrones, so we're gonna have to close here with the knowledge you don't know that we don't know anything about that
Jim Broadbent was fantastic in game of thrones last night and it was really not that good neighbours, but that's all I'm gonna knock it wasn't that couldn't episode, but there could be better ones later, so, a couple of things. Commentary magazine nineteen five digital subscription. Twenty five all access subscription, please follow, Twitter feed at commentary. We twitter goods of all day long you gotta read it follow Noah no see at no Acy Rossman follow. A bad, a greenwash. Follow me a J ports, I'm almost a hundred thousand followers. I will tell you not to be too vein But I was standing in a sweltering pact. Subway car this morning barely move and a guy next to me holds a swell up.
To my face and his reading, my twitter feed standing next to me on the subway. So people like it, they hate me too. They don't hate Noah, everybody loves Abe. People are very have very mixed feelings about John Snow, but I'm not gonna spoil the seven season of game with rounds of the first episode. Just it's not so for at no see Rossman and add a ringwald I'm at jackpot. Hordes keep the candle burn.
Transcript generated on 2019-12-13.