On the second of this week's podcasts, the COMMENTARY crew (Abe Greenwald, Noah Rothman, and I) takes up the new Senate health-care bill and its wildly generous spending on the opioid epidemic—which is problematic because there is very little in the way of good treatment when it comes to this kind of addiction. And we continue to analyze the question of whether, or why, or even how Republicans are supposed to react to the idea that the president's son was openly enthusiastic about getting dirt on Hillary Clinton from the Russian government. Give a listen.
This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
some guy well to the commentary magazine. Podcast today is Thursday July thirteenth. Twenty seventeen- I am pod hordes. The editor of Commentary magazine the seventy two year: old, monthly of intellectual property, political analysis and cultural commentary from a conservative perspective, joint So commentary magazine dot com where we give you a few free weeds and then ask you to subscribe. Ninety ninety five get to it,
subscription two thousand nine hundred and ninety five get to an all access subscription, including our beautiful monthly magazine in your mailbox eleven times a year with me, as always angry, while their senior editor hello, a hello John. Nor Rossman frustrated with trouble. Then the commentary magazine back again, but he will he will endeavour to emerge from the function to which our technical difficulties have caused and be an enlightened participant. In conversation? I know a hydra our now enlightened he's. Only always airlines is present bread and it's very hard arising about server errors server errors are very hard. It's it's. It's difficult experience to deal with the server error and if you don't know what I'm talking about. God bless you that you have no idea. What I'm talking about, because this is this- is the idea that one
This experience of being a partially digital publication is that you are at the mercy of code in word, press that you never understand and can never get past him, so feel sorry for us. If you want to you, don't have to, but you could and I'd appreciate it ok, feel sorry for now, because he works, and where is working on this poster? and he can't get to it, can't finish it because it's trapped in a web server hell so He will finish it. We will posted it's about health care reform, it's about the, the emergence of a plan by TED Crews, a senator not known for being struck Dave Gauger with legislation that we know what mostly for throwing for tat?
we're wrenches in the works and gum things up and slow things down and shut things off, calling the majority leader a liar and the floor of the Senate and everything's Lee S. But but in fact it appears that in amendment to these, its health care bill that attempts to create a in some ways you could call it a new market in in catastrophic health insurance. As emerged out of this bill and if, if bill, passes and becomes law. What crews did will be a remarkably submission event actually in the history of american Healthcare Noah, do you wanna this, isn't a mink overview. This is a tech crews, an Utah's, my glee joining to create the consumer Freedom Amendment, which essentially, is, as you say, catastrophic carrot, allows
Obamacare compliant plans to be sold on the individual market, but also non compliant plans. The non compliance part is cost sharing. Also that they don't have to cover these ten essential services, which include some things that everybody really should have, which is the emergency room, visits and prescription care, but also stuff that but we're very found onerous that they had to pay for, like pre and post Natal care mental disorder, stuff things that they wouldn't they go think they ever gonna need, and some have been favourably would never made right so, and so there and that drives up the prices and that subsidizes other people's care etc was a mechanism in its important one. But nevertheless this is the amendment, and there were people didn't think that this was gonna happen, notably
people in the republican conference. Republicans davers would talk to the hill and say this helpful. This is making the moderates and our conference that are already sketchy want to run away from the go shading table. How can you campaign on something? It's gonna say that pre existing conditions, for example, their premiums are going to be much higher. In fact, maybe they might not even be able to get coverage in all so people were frustrated by this, but the fact that his include It is, I think, a really philosophically a powerful argument. We should explain. We should stop for a minute and try to explain the different swing, catastrophic health care and ordinary health care for people who don't really know the distinction. That distinction is catastrophic. Healthcare coverage is a policy that deals with that which you get covered only if a really terrible thing happens to you so that conventional ordinary data day care is something there,
You have to pay for out of pocket, but then, if you, if I have us, if you hit by a bus, you gotta be more if you can get treatment, Private care has is a has been a sticking point in american Health, For thirty years there was a provision. One of the first national health care reforms that took place was a catastrophic healthcare bill that path, in the late abies at the tail end of the regular administration and had to be revoked after a year, because it provoked such an outcry among people who believe that its existence was going to create two levels of of of care May I come in aid. To be honest, I can remember what the specific politics of that crisis were, but they all had to do with ensuring that Republicans we're not deserted by Elderly voters are voters between the ages of fifty five and sixty four, and so the, and so the measure was was Paul, but it was an effort to create a market
for people who needed healthcare but didn't need. You know it's like buying what used to be the sort of like the lowest and Honda, Civic or a Volkswagen? So you don't need roll up. We don't need automatic windows. You don't need a radio, you don't even the air conditioner. You just need a car and if you get hot You can't world any windows, your own problem. That was the idea that there is good Cadillac plans and mirror evokes you now old. Nineteen sixty two Volkswagen plans and if any should be a way for you to buy. That. In the end, if we actually have serious health care reform that goes in any direction. There has to be some provision for this, because it is the only way to hold them for two to try to make sure people have some healthcare covered, so they are not indigent. In the emergency room when they were fifty thousand dollar bill that they can pay. But you of your twenty four years old and you're willing to risk? Not failure willing to risk not have,
the annual check ups, what you don't actually need when you're twenty four years old, the only than when you're, but you now fifty or older than than them It can happen so the real costs. Of course, as the politics here right so you're. So no is no no you're saying that philosophically, what's important here is that it gives people in this country a choice between having a policy that they must take. That has a lot of features that they may not want. Anna and a bear bones policy that simply make sure that they are not. You know that they can get some form of health care if they are in a terrible fit, also real quick. This is- and this is the subject of my peace- that's in post, purgatory right now, so I guess again, now expand on a here, which is that it forces Democrats down an avenue that is really familiar, and it's just it's been a
using argument for them for the better part of a hundred years, which is how do you define freedom? Do you define freedom as freedom of agency or freedom from want, and you have people like Senator Brian shouts of Hawaii, who says this is Our curious definition of freedom- and this is something that has been lingering in the activists liberal base for quite a long time- is that if you don't have helped me, You don't have health care, you weren't, you are not free. If you are poor, you we're not for you. If you are forced to declare bankruptcy, you were not free as opposed to the philosophical tradition of freedom, which is that freedom is a freedom, is a condition that in here is in every human soul and is the natural condition of the human soul. It is not in it, for it is not the abyss. We need to do what you want to do when you want to do at its it is. It is literally the ability to pay, free, will and make the CID Republicans can argue negative and positive rights. They win that argument. They won that argue.
For a hundred years. They're gonna keep winning that argument. If they argue health care is a right and that we will be really mean of us to deprive people of healthcare. Democrats are gonna, win that our whenever got word, but this doesn't have to serve mean factor right I mean every death did dead, there's is rupee our benefit and they said that that that every other republican or ordered or genuinely conservative proposal on health care can be turned to to appear to look like we do. We were there, those are being mean to someone this. This doesn't exist. Well I mean it does in. In other words, you you have to you have to go to a second level of argument to get to the mean I mean this is everybody. Ass to have the same level of covering or so that so that everybody, can get covered which is essentially ass. The socialists, the idea that health care is a universal right and and if we come to a point at which we believe that healthcare as a universal right.
We are a different country, at that point, it may maybe we're a better country. Maybe we're risk country, obviously think it's pretty clear. We think we would be worse country. Under the conditions under which the government can force you to purchase things. You don't need but you know, and then the argument for single payer government run healthcare is very hard not to make, because it's a would be a much more efficient system than a system that Jerry rate system in which the private insurers, taking advantage of the fact that the government is forcing you to buy a private product anyway, whatever the case there is now a Senate healthcare bill has reemerged. There is, of course, house passed a bill, the cell bills entirely different the question now is: can can match. Mcconnell get fifty vote. Fifty votes with my pants voting, yes to break the tie to get the peace.
Oh two back to the house, the house will pass the set a bill. The bill will go to the president's desk him. He will find him there. Or, I believe seven, it was counted. There were seven no votes before the bill was pulled two or three weeks whenever that was. Is this enough to get five of them back then there other provisions in the bill you now we go find them go find about yourself. If you get in the weeds about this sort of thing. There were busy are things going on yesterday with the moderates that no talked about that ten crews and Michael. You are, of course, part of the very conservative wing of the Republican fills applicants. The way the Republican Party in the Senate, but moderates like Susan Collins and listen, we're Caskey of who, basically said: do we have to do anything about Medicaid, can we leave Medicaid to one side
You know why are we even talking about medicated? Well, if you don't reform medic, if you don't have some reforms, a Medicaid. You might as well leave Obamacare in place. It's preposterous nonsense not to do something to alter the form of the system, the formula system that has made Medicaid so much more expense, the four of the states and- and you have created the conditions under which what is a thirty second remember how many states have opted out of the system because they don't want to be stuck ultimately with the bill for paying for this wildly generous four times the power level or whatever it is medicate formula. I just said something that I barely understand so I've. My guess is that you understand it even less, which is, of course, why the hell, your system, is so awful it so awful. As these formulas and deals and walking, you know you can be
you can study this for thirty years and unless you're in the weeds every day you few forget what the terminology is and are also makes it so hard to get consensus around a change, because it's just become this enormous on one EL the algebraic equation. Yeah yeah add a little to this. You take a little bit away from that and it doesn't. You do not know. Surely changing the general thrust of the reform of the idea, but you're you're, you're you're just serve. You know it. Tinkering the margins of the other, I think big thing to talk about is that the centre bill is ad, generously to the amount of money that will be given yes to the National Institutes of Health and in block ran to the states to deal with the operator? dynamic, which is held by some measures, the worst public health epidemic in american history we are talking about. There were one point: two million hospitalizations last year that involved
albeit abuse one point: two million out of a nation of three hundred and twenty million people. So do the math like that's and astoundingly high number here's the problem. The problem is that there is no treatment for opium we were. The only treatment that we are aware of in dealing with somebody who was addicted to opiates is to provide a substitute, opiate right now, tracks, zone or or but my most famously methadone for hair. Which is basically giving somebody and opium oil to deal with one and I'll be Lloyd, which isn't exactly the kind of treatment that. I think people are hoping for because they're looking for some go way out. This mass, where people discover that this is the most pleasurable experience they can possibly have in, and they cannot Get away from hunger to have it in its feet,
actually it's interesting by the way, because apparently physically, it's horrible to break a habit, but in short term, like it's much harder, you say, go over cigarettes than heroin, though in other withdrawal is, is bad, but it's bad for five days. The problem is the brain remembers in Europe. You remember the feeling the intensity of the feeling, and that's it almost impossible to meet the interesting Thing is that three little bit about the crack up epidemic and people. What when crack came on the scene, it was often described the the effect of it was described in sort of similar terms. Like you, ve never felt you or you like this, it's it's quick. It's it's! It's you! You immediately no view that you ve never felt anything like this before and that you want to spend your devoted. The rest of your your your time to two feeling this way again but of obvious. If a huge differences that crack was completed
illegal and you could crackdown on it through police work? There is, there is theirs, there's not others, and that was also untrue, like it turns out that it was untrue, backtrack people found Crack had a you know. Deb crack create Gigantic crime problem in the United States was mostly dealing with the wars between the people who were trying to sell it getting turf over it. Now that people did actually give up on crack. People do give up on crack and do give up on cocaine. Opiates is an entire. Early, different story based and based on what we know about drug abuse that that this is an once. Somebody gets addicted to an opiate It is fiendishly difficult for them to
if they're lie was without it in a way that it may be less difficult for alcoholics to get off alcohol. I still think huge chunks of like intercity populations checked out of their lives. Yet for rapid nobody, but right, but it was a, but it was a distinct period of time. Answer came to an end. The this this epidemic is in is in them is an acceleration mode. It started about fifteen years ago, and it's just its by jumping up and spirits. I mean there's a really good. Kate is a lot of money, a lot of money and that seventy eight billion dollars. I think I'm kind of skeptical of arguments like these that attack companies, but there have been a lot of very good exposes about how the pharmaceutical industry, particularly those invested in the sale of strong opiates, have been complicit in providing certain areas with
dosages that are not scalable, for example, that are larger and larger than the their incentives for healthcare providers to prove to give out these pharmaceuticals in unethical ways and that the Justice Department just reach days a settlement with one of these companies for unethical practices with regard to the distribution of of overweight, synthetic Opie ways, and we have the sentinel epidemic, which is essentially a something that is like a horse, Frank. Hazardous kills you so I was right kind of sceptical about attacks on companies like this. Although we haven't seen Democrats for exam, even those in the Remo demonize the pharmaceutical industry as a result of this sort of thing in that strikes me as like a paradigm shift that are talking more about agency. Your your pudding, appealing your mouth more than your being this forced on you like, like we do
with the tobacco right is it well, I mean the story is, and its told brilliantly in you know one of the most important books of the century, dreamland by SAM Communists, which I. Strongly encourage everybody to read the story here is that there was a an idea that became prevalent in the health care industry, both doctors and pharmaceutical companies in everything that pain, that the treatment of pain was something that was being mishandled. This is certainly it is that you know if you could alleviate paying much of the difficulty that people had living their lives. You know with with disease What would go away? And so scales were gay, where you ask people what level there in pain, with a smiley face or frowny face or crying face or happy face, were numbers from one to ten
And then drug companies developed an incentive to see if they could create many proscription medications. That would alleviate pain. That would, on the one hand, be strong enough to do that, on the other hand, be adulterated enough so that they warrant simply like handing somebody in a basic having somebody heroin, and so a created. These drugs oxy cotton- most particularly, and the idea was that you could take to day, take what have it would have a twelve hour, half life, you take it, it would stay in your body and slowly dissolve and get through your body and get through your system, and then you can take a when well the science of the twelve our time release was problematic. It turned out that you can't assume that everybody is body will will deal with the same kill the same way.
We're one and number two people who were getting this pain, medication discovered or the people that they were living with. We're looking for high discovered that if you're grounded up nor did it. It was like the greatest high you ever had, and so than they were stealing pills and then because the drug company, is immense and Medicaid, which plays a huge part in this epidemic. Because, essentially you could buy. Dose of heroin for a dollar a pill. If you were Many Gabe. Gray. The conditions under which these pill farms were created. The insurance companies were making huge amounts of money, but this was all part of a general health care idea about pain management. And in the last ten years that has all stay or the last five years in particular, that has all sort of you know changed. So if you like you live in New York State, it is an extremely difficult thing to get
To get more than like ten pills at a time, If you're in agony, you have to go back to the doktor, the doktor to call the pharmacy. You have to have a physical prescription. You know they did. A lot of this has been crackdown on in places of high oil in particular, were aware. Governor cases out blue has them. Most advanced and the most serious effort to deal with this. But there's no treatment. That's the issue, the problem, as you can you can start limiting access and then, of course the trick was that you got a deal. To these pills in them and then the poor start getting restricted from you. And then you went on heroin. Then. You want on Mexican blacked our heroine, which was cheap, which was not cut with talcum powder, which could be delivered to you. You now for ten dollars. Those five, adults or something like that, and then you were off to the racist because once you're willing to use a needle, that's that
process, a line that human beings don't cross, a pill you now, I'm gonna take a needle, but once you needed, if you're then gonna take an evil than you have many more people using needles and have ever used kneels before to shoot Can you have many more people addicted to heroin that have ever been indicted heroin before and the war on drugs that Richard Nixon started? Which people forget the war on drugs started in like one thousand nine hundred and seventy was about Heroin was largely about the I'm veterans coming back from South EAST Asia dictated addicted to heroin, it wasn't pod, it wasn't. Cocoa cocaine cost four thousand dollars an ounce. Nobody was using cocaine, but there were John, he's strung out all through the streets of cities everywhere, justice We are today. We live in New York City. There are white people, twenty four twenty. Twenty five years old sitting in doorways off, over the city, clearly that they have a dog data. Look like this.
Live here. They ve ever lived here. They come to New York. There sit there reading a novel. And there are obviously fetnah leaning over barely where or when there are awake they're out there warrior like they're like middle class, slower middle class people who are living on the streets of New York because they are overweight or that they are now me for people. You haven't been to New York and while they are also camped out on things like mattresses on the sidewalk yeah, you know in couples. It's like yeah, John and YO goes bedding no it isn't that right and then the other end but this to me is there to his look, there's, one of which is an argument that Edward Lot whack maiden commentary. Thirty years ago, which is called why we more waste fraud and mismanagement that the Pentagon, the idea being that, during the Reagan military build up one of the iter on the radio military build up was that there was
I was just encouraging the Pentagon to be just irresponsible with money in his idea was when you are trying to change something really fast and revolutionized. The system yeah, there's gonna, be a lot of waste fraud, mismanagement, that is human nature. That is the way things work. You have to accept that If you accept the goal and maybe if you throw an enormous and honey of the opium epidemic, you can Didn't courage, scientists to look into means a blocking. It is that we have like forty fifty years of addiction work on this. That shows that there are just very bad outcomes and dealing in dealing with opium production and that throwing money at it. We don't particularly seem to want to throw money at things these days, but this is something that everybody recognizes as just a hard line national horror. The North Korea domestic challenges. That is an interesting about yeah, because you're like look if.
If you have you, no one, three hundred people getting hospitalized for for this addiction. If you have fifty five thousand people dying annually a year from opiate overdoses more people than are now dying in traffic accidents. You gotta die. You know where we're in new territory. Here I am, you know, I don't know how to define. Describe it and, and and you know you look at it in a way you plunge into despair, because of course, what you see is Now economic uncertainty, the decline of these. You know industrial sites and jobs for the jobs for high school, gradual, feeble, don't go to college, and but you know blah blah blah, but
You know it looks like there's. No, on the one hand, you you can't, you can turn this worthy. One of the ways of people used to deal with this was to make a moral case out of it, like people word disgraced and shamed, and it was disgusting to be such a person in out to be a junkie. You you, you were you know in the UKIP people kept from doing so. Like this, because there was an enormous amount of moral outrage about it. And now we look at this. Is a disease to be cured and you can't blame someone for falling prey to it now that, and so, if you don't have the moral structure to go along with the money, you're gonna spend what the hell is going ahead. That seems to me to be the whole net of thanks is: if you have, there was a really get killed. Surprise, winning piece in the West Virginia Gazette that described the financial incentives for these companies to increase, said dosages.
The milligram dosages of hydrogen and oxygen content and the extent to which the shipments we're getting larger and larger and how it was being over prescribed and how is harder and harder for people to get effective than propria dosage of these things, so they were forced to take more more They'll be it so there really is a role that was played by pharmaceutical industry in this sort of situation and its financed by come situations like medicate, Medicare, and so have you address that without tripping over, as you said, was, as you know, the we these morals moralising that were now being shamed for you can't moralising judge anybody other conditions, so you can't really reform in these programmes are carefully address the source of this addiction and the payment methods by which these
These companies are incentive based it to provide these things to be able, without without being in a scolded for it right now I'll be. The whole issue is like a view of yellow. You have a culture of acceptance of in which human weakness is not only accepted, but is you know the compassion becomes the overriding approach to all social problems, One understands it. One feels at one self. One feels in one's family one feels in the way we think works, and yet, on the other hand, you know this may be giants silent level, the most destructive. Yet the compassion is cheap and it does not in our unless you make it clear to people that they that their behaviour is going to have consequences the way their judged by everybody around them and how you feel it
their fellow. There is a stigma associated with being high all the time well sure, but it's not what it's not it's. Not you know we use them as a size are as follows: stigmas there were things: look we used to have a say that were full of stigmas like ever get out it was against being be Bay, Gaines Pregnancy, legitimacy. You know all the stuff that we now look at and we say: well, you need to have compassion and you can't you can't you no blame of the illegitimate child for coming into the world and that's monstrous, and all that it's all true like this is how we live now. But in a society without stigma. There is that says. The somebody I better not walk down this road at all, somebody's gay handing the appeal. I better give it right back to him, because you know that
As my you know, my father is gonna slap me and I'm a cop is gonna, throw me in jail and my family will never recover from the knowledge that I was a jail bird. I mean I've been saying for a while and the way I look at his is. We have become nicer and less moral. Perhaps at the same time, because being nice is not always ultimately does that I always do the best for the further the put the person we were being nice to write well I mean that's kindness- is lobbying on judgmental right. But that is that is part of it and of course in the end of course, everybody, the truth is that people who live these lives know perfectly well that day that that they have gone down a road in which they have become. You know useless contemptible all enough, but I am I mean that you know that the people view them with contempt them and if you like
lying on the sidewalk and on the upper West side of manhattan- and you know, people or walking past you desperately trying not to look at you in the eye. You know that you have become an object of social contempt. Dismay a sense of you now that Europe's a mark of social death destruction, but I think, if you aren't gonna, feel awful Well, I think of you in the grip of the kind of addiction we're talking about you, don't even its it doesn't even sat on a radar hell. You you can't you care, but you care about something else. A lot more. Like I mean that's the you now. That's that's always the story with with a debt which is which is, as I say, the aid that the fiendish problem here: is that cocaine addiction was something I mean you don't see, people who are sixty five years old, addicted to cocaine. They stopped use.
Yet they stop you for whatever reason it doesn't get out, but if people made people there are junk there junkies, how live forever, they don't stop on their own. Did they do the way with the way alcoholics? It's just incredibly hard is what I'm saying and from what we know. There is a very little in the way of treatment. Like you can say, I'm going to put you to treatment. You know twenty eight days of trees, and there's so much we come out and then do. There's nothing to be done is yours, You were still there on the corner in your friends, are still getting high and what are you gonna do sessions and there's so much relapse, and you know from the celebrity cases you know like I remember when Philip Seymour Hoffman died. You know he's he's he's he's nobody's hillbilly banal and he couldn't live.
No, I look. I'm a friend who was in the air with Philip Seymour Hoffman like knew him. That was in the support group with him. Twenty twenty twenty years before he before he died, and he was an exam full of success? He was somebody who has fifteen years later. You know what it's it's, that feeling that the only people get where they say. Okay, you know what I'm a kick that I could just have a little taste They waited it's the horrible story, and so apparently, if this goes through they'll, be a lot of money thrown at an end, and the question is whether that will be in our effective words. Just going down into abstained, But it is interesting that the rights, the Republican Congress, that is going to write this giant check to deal with the hope you ate epidemic now granted in twenty six in one of them, the one of the ways Became a national issue was case, talked about. Chris Christie talked about it, it was discussed in the Republican,
primary was not discussed very much by Hilary in and bury sand. It was really a republican talking point, but you know it's maybe the first social programme that seen in which Republicans seem to be eager to throw money at the problem to deal with now? Is this compassionate conservatism, or is this the age of Republicans saying we're not gonna be nice anymore? we're just gonna be jerks. Ok, so we should move on to the risk, as this is a point that no is making this morning centres, thing, so b tea party Posts Tea party, Surgeons report again trying to day Rampart Trump Party candidate for governor, Airy Bradley. Any primary in Virginia was a trump organizer industry.
Important eyes are in rejecting an inquiry. Stuart who almost defeated at Gillespie, who finally did when the primary in Virginia for a goop Anatolia, racists and of amber by tiny, origin has now declared himself a candidate for governorship and Virginia guesses and setting a right used. Percent right. Ok, so he's now run and twenty eighteen challenging for some ok, so white. What did he say Noah to kick off his campaign Ok, we got find it back. We'll get the eggs could is absolutely astonishing because it represents a kind of undifferentiated. Is the question of whether or not people are taking the Trump message? And you know, rather than adulterated it to make it softer they are, they are holding it too.
They get sharper. Ok, the era of kinder gentler Republican is over, says, chorister, announcing his candidacy for sending in increasingly blue virgin bread. So the Arab kinder gentler, probably was. It was over so remember, trumps message, was very complicated in this regard. Basically, he said I'm gonna give you everything you want. I me Bush, was kind and gentle I'm getting your job back, I'm give you benefits you know, you're we're gonna win is zero. Give us a stubborn winning, I'm not a country, not laundry yeah he'll healthcare yeah, so it's not like he wasn't He was totally fix it. On a certain type of compassionate conservatism. If you will, in the sense that government needed to give money to people that was part of his pitch, it was that you know he could be a jerk as a human being.
You know and we're not politically correct any more and we're not gonna go all his money. Did anybody who is a mexican, but you know we're gonna, keep all the Muslims out in die you now we hate everybody, you know. So all the republic and you were frustrated by The abandonment of conservatives, ideals in in compassionate conservatism of George W Bush is era in raised it wholeheartedly as long as it was packaged in a prickly affectation, which was Donald Trump Specialty, if that believes that, if that's what they fought with, this is always the issue dealing with this present see which is. Is it about. What he says. What is it Just him like I'm speaking specifically of the opinion elites, who were the pro trompe and variety right now. Embracing both the programme and the man, despite their contradiction here,
What I'm saying is that none of it? None of it, follows into the presidency in the sense that you'll, clearly sign any bill that can get through the Senate, and it could be nice it could be mean that good did could shut down all health care in America. He'll sign it to sign it. You know or you sign it, because it's got him. He'll say it's the greatest thing ever, no matter what, whether its provisions, a court with his in our in accordance with his understanding of what America's tell people need in health care or not so ape. We're now for days into five days into the Russia emails, Donald Trump near the guy singing Andy PAN, the the Russian lawyer who got into this country mysteriously without a visa,
the billionaire who's gonna build from tower in Moscow and the promise of specific information from the russian government. That would destroy Hillary Clinton. Excuse me, where are we with this, Laurie aren't were much farther along than we were one when we last convene three days ago because Don Juniors email exchange brow while we were recording last podcast that the last substantive, but a news on this Emily. Aside from these, the reporting about the russian lawyers getting into the U S, but by virtue of some extraordinary visa by virtue of the earth from the above bomber draft, which is now given birth to a conspiracy theory. This was all an effort to plant a false flag with the Trump campaign to get them
blinded to fall for of you know. This is for to the effort to create a wild conspiracy theory that will explain away what is clear is that those on your face, which somebody said we dirt, I'm Hilary coming from the russian government Donald Trump Junior thing- I love it. Let's have a meeting ears. Jarred manifold will come my man afford. You know. Everyone comes to the meeting is to be found ass thick. Well, I wonder if I could, because we're all still on the subject of easy nails and because they broke while we were recording, neither of you or myself had the appropriate time to digest them all ended the nuances of them, among which stand that to me was the fact that Don Junior didn't seem to react particularly strongly to the suggestion that of which he seemed aware
at this was part of the russian government's ongoing effort to assist the Trump campaign which was just thrown out there and in it the breathing, the normal human reaction to something like that is the what now right put right That was not in the in the offing in in down from juniors response. So I wonder if having a couple of days to have digestive this at the time, both said that this. This really doesn't change the situation. Four Donald Trump, the political capital you had a Monday is still the amount of political capital he had on Wednesday. So has that calculation changed for either of you in the last forty eight hours, well. I mean you know, he's heads he had little political cap oh Monday and has he has little little political capital today, so I don't know you know it said it's you didn't have so far to fall. I said I think that It remains true that there's no collusion the that that
Caution is sort of involving one but, as we said on Monday, certainly like they were open to collusion, so hasn't changed. Shall I don't I don't you know in unless, unless there's a cascading series of stories now that come on top of this, when I I don't know and that there might be look, I think with simple fact: the matter is that the behaviour of fox lose in the programme. Press makes it clear that, in the absence of an absolute a gun in trumps hand that he has shot add something that he says. Look I have a gun. I I've gotten over gun. They will I'm an excuse for his behavior now, Some of this is probably somewhat legitimate and money It's not in this sense, which is, I am dizzy by the fact that Junior, says I love it and do you know
They have a meeting. They didn't get the goods according to everybody, the meaning that they were sent back they were told there we're gonna be given legal, could agree to kill Hilary and all this lawyer wanted to do is talk about the Magnets Gay ACT, so that was that which they don't care about. Ok, So then. But the issue is, he called the meeting to get the goods right, so he would have colluded if you go to collude so two things are then sudden response by his apologists one is lost we concluded so what conclusions? Not a crime, there's no crime in collusion, we're not at war with Russia you know we can get information from Russia get Information Rennie, whereas what opposition researchers do? That's number one number two is an hey: Hilary met with Ukrainians. And Hilary met with Ukrainians, and I hear you saying that Hilary bad now,
a whole remaining was ukrainian story has to do with the fact that there was a Ukrainian who met with a Democrat. Some Democrat and said Paul man afford them the campaign term of the term campaign got money illicitly from a from this russian cut out. The ukrainian Raw Putin shouted in Ukraine, which a turn out to be true- and we got him fired, ok so, wasn't that Trump was bad man afford and it wasn't the camp. Pain. It was somebody else who got the and for whatever and I don't know what they're saying or they saying that that was bad, or that was good. Like her? They saying Hilary got information from the Ukrainian. That's not fair, if they're saying that, then give em trump shouldn't be getting information from the Russians. That's not fair, or they say it's perfectly legitimate for Hilary to gotten this information.
From Ukrainians and therefore trumpets were legitimate for Trump to get information from the Russians. No this tracks or makes any logical sense. It's just an effort to create smoke screens and to give people oh yeah. Well, what about Hilary in the Ukrainians and dry? is now leaving with a story in red, as from January, they ve gone back to January of sort is already well known and published about Mccain. Getting these steel dossier from the British.
How the hell this is now somewhat comparable. This is oh hey. This is it's another, it's another stream of what about ISM. Ok, there's there's always going to be the these people, for whom access to the trumpets, access to power and powers, everything the beginning and the end of the game. There are some some pillars of down from support in the conservative community, who are a little boy, important and fair minded who are beginning to fall away. I'm thinking of specifically Charles crap hammer, who is a very trump skeptical person, but who was very sceptical of the commercial air. I have an has settled here you go, this is we ve got evidence now. This is the opposite hard fact, and this is something you can explain away and also enter Mccarthy. National review road is written in national Review and the Washington Post to very compelling pieces, and he has been extremely sceptical and very defensive. This administration, with,
pretty a compelling pieces and he's starting to say look, this is this is starting to look bad and something that is very difficult for me to defend, and I therefore declined to defend it which is noble and rare in the euro from, but I think the point that goes to your original question now is: what is the political fall out for prompt- and I think, sort of what I said in the last podcast still holds, which is the people who are going to defend him, have not been knocked off with may be the exception. Amanda Mccarthy have not been knocked off the path defending it and their willing to say stuff. That is frankly, illogical like. Why aren't you talking about Hillary Clinton crimes? I wrote column saying that what Donald Trump Junior did was discussed. And people are like you know, you're not talk about Hilary is what Hilary did. Unlike I wrote,
five thousand words about what Hilary did between you know. Ninety, between March of twenty fifteen and November of twenty sixteen, I wrote an entire book in two thousand and six about how to keep It was necessary to keep her from being president. There is nothing to talk about what Hilary did She lost the presidency largely because of scepticism about her veracity and her and the legality of her behaviour. So she got planet and she the public, would focused on it and well knew about it, and she and the country its decision about her and what are we supposed to do about her now four years. Many power, so the has been she's out of politics got no strength should mean nothing. This is all just a way of. Dazzling. You know I mean the could there's something contempt
in this sense, which is like it's a way of throwing you know like fancy, Google as you know, were slot machine like making you with five dollars a slot machine, so that your distracted from the fact that you just lost a hundred dollars putting money in the slot machine like it's not a serious arguments on argument of anything but would be if it were like about you know of sitting politician with a lot of power in the United States like weren't you talking about what, TIM King did with, though, thus inside if he had ever done anything. I think the question about whether a trump is going to lose These supporters over the continuation of these types of stories is settled emitted. Stepping up. What I think is actually happening is that their digging in more because in the end their mind. This is as this is
an extension of the witch hunt. As long as the witch hunt goes on the more offensive it is to them and the more outrage they and their thing or two aspects. The witch hunts where's, the media right the media as well on a witch hunt It's true that media's on which on the media is always on a witch hunt for Republicans and thereby thrilled and trumpet the biggest fish they ve ever had right up is its number one and the other. Then, however, is the FBI, Mueller Congressional committees. If you can focus on the democratic. Rational committees, the holes talk about Mueller and how he and call me call me, did this Mueller may be doing that. Bueller's hiring as a friend of commies is an effort to make it clear that, if story start coming out, the Mueller is gonna indict zones overnight. Doesn't such that Mueller is discredited in the eyes of Trump supporters because he is part of this giant blob anti trump blob? I was talking about this yesterday.
One of the things that frustrates me is this from fixation on from voters, and it's not just for us, but it's in the press. Just when or trumpeters gonna jump off the ship when it talks news, gonna jump off the ship. Why are these people so adamantly behind Donald Trump? Why can't they stop doing this and its is, though it's like it? It imagine sort of that fixation with Barack Obama's a hard core voters in two thousand and nine, and there was some of that, but must go to a much lesser extent, because when you look back on it for through the lens of twenty ten twelve twenty fourteen twenty sixteen, it seems absurd that you would focus on such a minuscule portion of the electorate, for whom evidence in fact was irrelevant. There was Alamo
You mean his big base. Ok, but let's let let's, let's make this clear thing: it's even its even more interesting. I think your point is not entirely strengthened by mentioning. Obama has Obama one like fifty three percent of the votes that many one a landslide, so you could sad are simply changed the nature of american politics, as so many had anticipated will aid. They thought he had and Republicans, and they were wrong. Okay now, but years, which is almost like so Trump one. Forty six percent of road he won in percentage terms. Point seven percent, more than John Mccain, one in being blown out by Barack Obama, ass the popular vote to Hillary Clinton, the republican base, as we understand it, is maybe thirty to thirty five percent of the electorate.
So yeah. Maybe he keeps that so the focus on his voter is a mistake because they're not who's up for grabs they're, not they're, not what will do him in and could do the Republican Party and Everything goes wrong. People voted for him because they want to vote for Hilary people voted for because they were sick of the Obama years. People voted for him because they thought he was a tough. Whatever Vodafone, Gazeta, one above Raillery, and now it's not the voice between trumpet Hilary now its trump and whether you like it or not, and whether you support or not and whether you think he's doing good thing or not, and can those people fall away? You but they can fall away. George W Bush improved his vote from two thousand to two thousand for by twenty two percent, and by two thousand seven. He was at thirty one percent in the approval ratings and they lost because
prison. Two thousand six problem has lost the Congress into doesn't six, because that remember after tromp was elected, several sifting through the data. One of the things that came out was how many former Obama voters he got and what this The pull that I would be deeply interested in seeing is following up with them with that contingent of his Sixteen support. Where are they now stand? What are they think? That's a good question. The question is an old trump voters, the really big fans, the questioners voters who voted for Donald Trump, who now disapprove of his job approval. Who do saying? I don't approve the job the president is doing. I dont know whether the job the president's job approval tracks with his vote, whether it's over us demanding an underestimated.
A lot of people who said I dont like this guy and still voted for him. So we don't know whether or not it let's see, I think, there's something which should be at least close to. There should be a certain amount of from voters who no longer approve of him a job approval ratings, and that's where you should be focused bioethics. Some of this is disingenuous on the part of people who keep saying when will when will it be too much for Fox NEWS or when? When will the republic leadership say that enough is enough, and when will they have a soul? To you know these? All this is said by people who don't like Fox NEWS and who will net wouldn't who is who have never voted and will never vote for a Republican where our where is the Borell leader II, J D on Wherewith, Paul, Ryan and Mitch? What lay great men like Howard, Baker, whose. Stood up to mix in it, but you know Each of has never voted for Republican, whose entire life, so, where are they? They are trend?
figure out what it is that their voters want think in need, They are not there to appeal to E J D on sense of how to make it easier for Democrats to take over the country. So? I think that argument is largely disingenuous. Similarly, with Fox, like you know, we we are not happy with fox. In many ways we have our max. What went on topical, unless they haven't extremely ugly. Experience with him, tuckers written so MAX written some day, but you know foxes. Responding to market incentives like everybody else, they think that there is a there is a more for them being essentially state tv and if their there they're digging in their doubling down on it, they may be right. They may be wrong if things turn on Trump foxes Gonna take an enormous hit because people are gonna get sick of it want to let him be done with it. But you know that
the only game in town for the right and no one is being fair, its knowledge, MSNBC, being fair scenes, reverb anyone's being fair. So I don't fall for In their numbers are still knows, we always say well, most watched Fox program at night? Gets three million viewers? That's one percent of the population, the United States, every net. You know the network news care still get ten million people watching them. You can even compare these numbers like foxes, it was a very intense, but they are a subset of a subset of a were of a republican folder. Almost all over sixty five. You know only social market thing, but I would again like who cares when Fox will turn on you know I would buy. Why am? I would find it easier watch, some of the shows if they
for it so slavish, but you know I'm also about their market rent. Maybe we could put a period on the Don Junior thing, the impact of it, because before this broke one other storylines that you would hear, often in the press and echoed by Republicans who were inclined towards wishful thinking that voters don't really care about this Russia stuff. And then you go to the hinterland and they don't talk about it. They see it as a distraction. Republicans democratic Democrats alike gets a beltway thing, it's a bell with accession and is something that they should probably get over and move forward with the actual politics of the country. Does that still hold in the post? Don Trump emails world I don't think they care about the Russia stuff. I think this makes trumpet his family look, bumbling and and dirty, but so it's it's
it's. It's a sir small net negative among that group, but I don't think it's. I don't think they're wildly outraged about the Russia angle itself, but we should go back now to talk about health care in this sense,.
Just at the all of this is going on at all bad, it's all problematic, and it makes you upset about what happened to make such as observer. What happened to the relevant parties, moral, foreign policy ideas and whether we should be collated out looking to collaborate with them in out with a regime like Russia just for naked political advantage, and all that, if the health care bill doesn't get past healthcare build as in the past, that means a tax reform building a past that means that they were Hologram Party has failed its voters, its failed as goods failed in governance terms. Everything has gone wrong. I don't know what they go into twenty eighteen running on. I don't know who they are. They're gonna be an incredible despair. All of this is a site could could be viewed as a sideshow if you think that you know Paul Ryan is an Mcconnell are going to go into September,
Without you know, legislation passed and think that the world is in about a crash down around their heads and the Trump is largely to blame. You're mistaken. So you know, political realities will also assert themselves or where'd. They go in all in with him and say. The only reason that we're not be able to get anywhere is because Democrats and liberals, or trying to ruin this country and they are worthy of they become. We are the entire republican caucus turns into you know. The five on farm has shown no indication that he would go along with that either he's seen more inclined to blame republican leadership will advise you to Time Republic salaries that anyone who yesterday with us he began well. You said Mitch, Mcconnell, better, get this done or I'll. Be very angry, I'll, be very angry, but I mean so he can be angry it damn it doesn't matter. I'm just saying. Like I don't know, I mean
well, that'll in Russia can vote nettle, result in an easier effort by Democrats to retake the twenty four seats. They need to take the house and imputes Trump, so you know the real. The real news here is what happens over the next month since Mcconnell cancelled the August recession he's. Gonna make centre set there forever until they agree to pass this bill. You know, and if its, poles at twelve percent. They're, not gonna pay The bell, I don't know I mean I don't see how they're going to pass the bill if it's still posed at twelve percent, and it says third run at it. I mean that is a house bill. Is cancelled, then they come back and pass now's bill. Cerebral goes in the right. I pull it, neither doing the episodes, I forthright and then you know, and by
where the entire kabuki play in the house was meaningless, because the only thing they're going to be able to do if the Senate bill passes is passed, the Senate bill there are gonna, be pulling provisions from the hospital the Senate bill will have passed by. We know one vote and they're gonna have to just go with that and have trump sign it. So anyway, at an trumps minor victory of getting his the travel ban, finally put in place that has gone completely unremarked upon. I have forgotten about right, everyone, s right right, so that Service- and that was that was There- was some Julie eyes everything about the early afghan girls situation whereby it running We are right, I guess you don't rose robotics teams that it could have a ten day pass right, don't tore american go backwards, but that he can hang on That's that's! That's! That's! No kind of giant victory for nope.
Our guy, so we managed to get through an entire podcast sitting in a steaming hot studio. It's good because it distracted Noah from the difficulties he was having If, as I said, our back an unjust remembered them I had to break it up. I had now he's back to crushing morosely back in the crushing Rossi phases commentary. Amazing, I guess so. We will be back to you next week. It is Thursday something's going to happen over the weekend that we have to talk about for an hour and we'll forget about Donald Trump Jr, because that that's what it's like twenty, so America sell for every modern harassment. I'm John ports keep the camel burning.
Transcript generated on 2019-12-13.