« Commentary Magazine Podcast

Commentary Podcast June 8 2016

2016-06-08 | 🔗
The Republican Party’s primary race has been over for a month, but they are far from united around Donald Trump. In fact, the GOP disunion is only growing worse. Meanwhile, the Democratic Primary functionally ended last night, and already the party of Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama is more united than Democrats. This week, John Podhoretz, Abe Greenwald, and Noah Rothman take a look at paths forward for both candidates in November, and why only one party is already nervously looking toward the panic button.
This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
This is Wednesday June eighth, two thousand, and sixteen- and this is the commentary magazine podcast on John Podhoretz- the editor of commentary with us, as always, I spent a system might editor. I know I got a green monseigneur hi aid. I know a gentleman. Hillary Clinton has far
only an officially or even our officially, but basically secured the nomination of the Democratic Party for presently United States as a last night when she won California handily going away and one New Jersey by twenty five points and continues to give the lie to the fantastical illusion on the part of Bernie Sanders supporters that he somehow was actually women with democratic primaries, when in fact, she has ended up with fifty six percent of the vote to his forty two, and in many hundreds more delegates and has won the lion's share of the larger states. She's, one thirty states he one. Twenty twenty is a pretty impressive showing for a seemingly fringe candidate, but nonetheless she one in one going away, and there is a question now about the weather, the passion of the
Bernie Sanders camp will now simply move into action out right insanity in refusing to acknowledge the truth. And the unambiguous truth a comedy that is represented by potential continuing bid that now relies entirely on an argument that he would make that he's are situated to be Donald Trump in November, and therefore the super delegates that he has been condemning for a year is being wildly undemocratic, should flip eighty percent to him and therefore hand him the nomination, thus taking the nomination away from the one man one vote system that he so seems to prefer in which Hillary Clinton one a landslide. Stem cell. That's where the Democratic Party is. President Obama will meet with Hilary and meet with burning Anderson tomorrow and the supposed to start campaigning in some fashion for Hilary, starting at the end,
week and, of course, in the Republican Party we have meltdown meltdown meltdown meltdown meltdown melt down a week of meltdown. Surrounded surrounding Donald Trumps insisted that a judge born in Indiana of Mexican descent cannot possibly fairly rule in his trump universally case, because he is Donald Trump and because the judge has parents who are mexican and also insists now that he's not sure that a muslim judge could roll fairly in his behalf, thus overturning basically forty or fifty years of argument on the right
the conservatives and the Republican Party represented a view of e Pluribus Unum, according to which it was Democrats who practised identity. Politics insisted on counting by race, insisted that you could understand someone's views by knowing what race they were, what end and that they would only be handled themselves in public life, according to the dictates of their supposed racial leadership, we ve been arguing against that for decades and decades against affirmative action against Oh does against diversity, as of as a standard by which you simply select people according to the color of their skin, roam the content of their character and trump in a week has caused a huge crisis in their public and partly because he has exposed the soft underbelly of this.
Theory to the light of day but she's saying now. The Democrats are right. Decamp, I re everybody does what they want to where everybody is tribal and I'm not gonna get a fair shake and die It's the truth, and I just want a fair shake and I'm speaking the truth, and I think that's why you see so much panic on the part of of applicants. So that's that's where we are politically, as we start this podcast, let's start with Hitler Clinton and the historic victory first woman nominee of Asia, of a major political party in the United States ever and many Tears are being shed over this or fake tears. I think some of them are really fake. Here is a radiological tears, no I've been you have taken a look at some of this special pleading on behalf of this historic moment and have some thoughts on it.
Yeah. Well, I honestly don't know why the historic first woman thing didn't resonates so much as as it as tiller, cleanse backers thought it would. With Democrats of partisan Democrats, it could be the fact that having a female negative in leadership position in the western world isn't especially unique. We ve been having were relatively popular and influential western leaders in the form of Margaret Thatcher, Angela Merkel and so on, and many in Latin America for a long time. So this is something with which a generation. Forty years old, I was pretty well acquainted with still just wasn't as unique, I think is, as Brok on his victory was in two thousand and eight
but Hillary Clinton has been groom for this role. For twenty five years now, she's she's been the the first woman to win the nomination. That was going to be her thing for quite some time and the fact that it took a quarter century to get there is indicative not of some some great moment, but how really poor Hillary Clinton is, as as a campaigner man how gasperone she is and how tempted she has towards conspiratorial paranoid. Thanking her her career is is a story of gas and actually, and I think it was a little evident that she's gonna have some trouble campaign against Donald Trump, because she is defining herself even in that speech last night, which was a very good speech well written speech, the staging of that event was excellent. The sort of a mini convention was busy. Clever was well done, but her one of those themes are really frustrated me. I don't know if you guys feel the same as she defined herself as sort of this alternative to Donald Trump, as though Donald Trump
is the they get. The central theme of twenty sixteen now and she's the alternative to it. In adopting his wall thing, Donald Trump as building walls between US bridges are better than walls was wild walls. That's me sounded like a Pepsi, Marshall, that I spent the whole time. Obsessing Democrats, love bridges and you you you're a young man. No, and so you perhaps don't remember the ludicrous but successful theme of the nineteen. Ninety six Bill Clinton re election campaign, was building a bridge, the twenty first century we needed to build a bridge the twenty century. Perhaps the most comic inadvertently comic theme. Any presidential campaign has ever had because, of course, we need to build up in the twenty first century we were going there anyway inexorably. No, bridges are needed when there is a gap that otherwise will not cannot be a span that cannot be crossed so
ninety thousand six in five years I was gonna, be two thousand and one we are going to be in the twenty first century, Do you know there was no reason whatsoever for there to be bridge building, but let the Clinton campaign came up with this theme in part, because Bob Dull inaugurated the theme that we hear Donald Trump now basically explicitly peddling as the centrepiece of his campaign. Bob doll said in his election speech. Some It has gone wrong in this country. Let somebody from the past, from a time when the man when America was greater, meaning he as a war hero from the Second World WAR let him lead the country because he could invoke evoke em and be the exemplar of greatness that America has lost. It was a disastrous thing to say:
let's look backwards, not forward. I am. I am old and grumpy, but you know at least I know what life was like in nineteen, forty four, and so we gave the gave Bill Clinton a big opening it that's when she talks bridges. She is talking classic happy democratically. Shea infrastructure metaphors are hopelessly lost on America and twenty. Sixteen I get it What are you saying is me last night is not let's look to the future. She sang. Let's look to Donald, try Nobody else originally relaxed his wife comparison. What? Why did them? Why? The Democrats and liberals loved the bridges metaphor? I would put it this way because they they have given up on the melting pot idea, and they do believe that what we have here- a series of communities of Islands african American Island in a sort of like it inside
out, goofball island than this. What you know it's like: there's, the African America, hispanic Island, the algae BT, island. The oh, the Southern Ireland, the urban island, the gun owner island and you know we build bridges between them because otherwise I won't have any connection to each other. It's it's a it's a balkanization, it's effectively a kind of positive balkanization idea that you build bridges to communities, cuz, otherwise, they'll just stay with their own and they can cross some of them cross back and there's no cross fertilisation? So that's my met me. That's my mind. That's, why isn't the meadow? messages of the excitement at bridge metaphors which, which are the focus many democratic candidacies. Urban city candidacies, M, gubernatorial, candidacies, em and you'll hear this from now until November. I have, I have no doubt
just. It can further confuse the the imagery. She also brought up the village metaphor sheets, invoking around Brandon saying it does indeed take them which to change things? So maybe it's? U notes bridges connecting island villages, but you know, many villages have to have a little brain, have a little less little stone bridge over them over the over the little stream. You now the queue bridge. You know you throw your The footbridge out you know last week was owed to Billy Joe week. I want to point out June third, the day on which ought to Billy Joe, the great Bobby Gentry song of the sixties took place, and that, of course, is about someone throwing something off. The Tallahassee bridge then committing suicide off, how have you bread, so small towns have bridges, tell Hatchie Bridge, you know you could still have a village that needs a bridge that you can throw something weird and southern gothic off of necessary. That's a total non sequitur, but I
did want to point out that, ultimately, Joe is one of the greatest songs ever written, and I met a bunch of thirty year old who had never heard of it. So that's hearing of Thus, in our metaphors and on the democratic side, Donald Trump is hopelessly literal. If we talk about bridges, he means bridges seem means actual infrastructure, particularly in places like China, India, the he means actual walls, not lady between groups and little diet. Tiny dead demography is that keep to herself in a clannish, no fashion. These talking about actual physical things. I think
that sort of dumb down approach does have its appeal to a particular. You save the literal, the literary literal not written in the data. Yes, maybe dumb down is not an appropriate way to put at what I mean is that it molecules you mean vulgar you haven't. Even that sounds bad. When means it appeals directly to a particularly straightforward ethos of which is very much America is straightforward, say which meet me, which has had conquered carry character, and that is his strength, its strong suit, and I am not sure what are not democratic roots are equipped to tackle that in an effective action. Ok, that was no Rossman a Green. While Bulgaria finger up you, I think I mean, I think, knows onto something with it with the larger idea of it. Hilary does seem somewhat stuck into finding herself in opposition to him. But again also the way that she turned his make it. Let's make to great
into let's make America whole again? That was also as a sort of response to two. You know serve at a trump germ than that She then latched onto, I think you guys are onto something in that there is a danger, her candidacy and allowing him to be the framing point around which the selection goes either. You are the subject of the object and, if he's gonna be the subject that will put him that puts him in it in an ineffable position of power to the person against whom the Democrat runs, as opposed to the person, as opposed to the person whom the Democrat is attempting to leave in the dust as as she charts her course across the bridge. It did twenty twenty, and that is an interesting weakness. I think that's a correct double weakness,
trump reserve is an easy target for her in a way that he never was for his republican opponents, who never quite knew how to attack him, because they were worried about offending his course supporters. So Hillary Clinton goes into this. Knowing she's not get many of his course supporters and what she is looking for us to pick off. Everybody is too frightened Democrats into being doing high turnout, because of the threat that he poses says as president and then picking off people in the middle and possibly Republicans, who are openly disgusted by him ass, a good pivot point to burning, because both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are keenly aware that there is a segment of the democratic electorate that is really disaffected and they are as interested in a kind of trompe an impulse.
If not on policy than an character in approach as they are Torres, Bernie Sanders. It is very much the outsider cast of characters who have college degrees and are relatively comfortable and are white and privilege to perceive themselves to be the victims of american society. Don't understand how that works exactly, but they are very much infatuated with that. A belief in themselves remember, and they think they can be picked off down from things that can be picked off and historical and things that can be lost well Remember that the pummeling that has been done on this is always suspect, because you're talking at sub groups of sub group, so you feel APOLLO. Five hundred Democrats, in which you have forty percent, say that, therefore
Bernie Sanders, so you therefore have about two hundred of them say therefore Bernie Sanders and then eighteen percent of them say that they will vote for Trump. That's you now, eighteen to twenty percent of two hundred, so that's forty people, out of APOLLO five hundred the margin of error on a number like that is huge. We dont get! No. If it is at all demonstrable that sanders. Voters are less liberal than they are looking for you, no power felis change. I know Susan Sarandon has said that she'll vote for Donald Trump over over Hillary Clinton, but I think it is yet to be demonstrated, to put it mildly, that what Sanders voters are just a bunch of commies. Basically, I think most of them are a bunch of commies. They've decided that the system is rigged.
For the benefit of people like Donald Trump, there are going to vote for Donald Trump, even if he says the system is rigged. For me, that doesn't mean that he is not there standing there trying to rig the system in his favour. In relation to judge, Gonzalo Alcohol, which is exactly what's what's going on here and in according to political, today, centres himself is still deciding between, the option of either it when when what, when he, comes around two to you know that the hill, reality, either endorsing her full throated deadly or simply say we have to prevent Trump from being in the white have so our how eaten either either case his his followers of your message from him. That's that's! That's anti trump. He said that last night, at one thirty in the morning, at his very peculiar.
Speech last night, which ended with the words the Ruggles continues, then, is not american political rhetoric that has not common american pull of great. We dont refer to our politics, as a struggle we don't refer to the struggle continuing? That is again. I don't want to use it, I'm using this as a jokey turn, but that's commie rhetoric. That is the sort of thing talking about struggle. The implicit adjectives is missing from that is class struggle or via when struggle or rebel, canary struggle and- and you know what he has to face up to- is the quest whether or not he is more of a comic whether he is more of a a stream, a politician who just one ten million votes and wants to help direct his voters.
Making the better of the unpalatable choices that he sees before him. And we we don't. We don't know that yet he clearly doesn't quite still believe that what happened to him has happened to him, his stuff reach now begins with eggs it out a year ago. Everybody call those fringe. No would not know they're all they were laughing and they're not laughing at me more well. You don't say that after a year. If you're, not creating some disbelief at the fact that this is what happened to you- that you ve found yourself at the head of this vote in Kuwait Army of of supporters who just seem to be angry, that the Democratic Party isn't
further to the left. That's why I say I really question whether any significant number of people who support sanders or said he supports Sanders, will will have a taste for Trump in the end cuz. It just seems to me that he he represents the base. The leftist base of the party, which turned out to have a since. We willing and substantial numbers to pull. For some of the other than Hilary, maybe in part, because as we ve talked about before they knew she was gonna win anyway. So it was a free vote to cast a happy boat with your younger people, who don't know that socialism is a problematic thing and somehow think that voting for this seventy four year old slob is, as you know, is, is a hip, wonderful, crazy, fun thing to do. Sort of, like you know, guess, starting on an episode of girls in our being an extra
a set of girls or something like that sought in a world where this leaves Hilary Sanders, but I think that now, that Hilary have trouble unifying her party is a desperate hope on the part of people who dislike her and both on the law. I've been on the right. There is no evidence in american political history that that has been a problem for anybody that the party parties faithful, unify behind as long as there's no third party candidate in the race, the prize, faithful, will tend to unify behind whoever the candidate is. That's partially what's happening with trumpets partially what's happening, able it's what will be happening with Hilary, and this is where I want to get to the final question of the day, which is as it stands. Noah we ve seen
in this tightening in trumps favours in the five weeks since he basically secure the republican nomination or have we see, tightening we'll know we have. We most certainly have seen a titan. If you go back and you look at two thousand and twenty twelve you have to do, both elections were never really competitive both times the Democrat was pulling pretty well ahead of his republican opponent throughout the course of the election cycle for the better part of a year, with two exceptions, in both cases right when the candidate secured the nomination, John Mccain and Mitt Romney enjoyed, abounds, John Mccain actually surpassed brought about in the polls. Mitt Romney close the gap didn't and the conventions in the conventions have a really good bones to them as well one exception. Their obvious case right after that very first debate was very good, but you say you see some really consistent waves read after they win the nomination, ratify the convention Donald Trump one than
a nation and he got a balance, and it was a real substantial amounts to the point where he actually led in the OECD Electoral average by a minuscule point. Two points appoint oat points rather point: oh two points oh wait, two hints of pretence of a per cent. One day or only for today. But you know still very significant for the first time that ever happened in the course of a year and that quickly began to fade and right now or in the middle of a many doubts for Hillary Clinton, but I know that we need to go where we need to explain this, so he met managed to tie her about two ago, and now where what are the where the numbers as of this morning. Thank you look them up in their their Clinton. According to them, we are clear policy
Why not have our support in front of always. You have Huffington posters, hover upholsterer, which dozens smooth out the averages, ridden smoothing, means it it's what are average as the mountains? It's it's very susceptible to two bounces pollster. Has it now at forty four point, three percent for Hillary Clinton and thirty nine point: six percent for Donald Trump Donald Trump is on a stable, butts, modest decline and Hillary Clinton is rising and she just secured her nomination and it works both ways. The nomination bounds, workfare republicans. It worked for Democrats too, so we can expect to see her continue to rise in these poles and perhaps go back to equal Abraham she's in a bit of a trough right now about by virtue of what an untimely shore button had then neither of her popularity since the summer of last year- and that might be artificial south
looked like a competitive election sort of for a couple of days? Might revert to a non competitive election that we always understood it would be so I say that Hillary Clinton goes into this, assuming no cataclysmic event for her, obviously an indictment or news that an indictment was referred but rejected by the Obama administration fleeting too according to this disaster scenario, leading to multiple resignation that the FBI and the part of agents who investigated her and were promised that the investigation would be impartial and a political, including an up to F B. I director James call me all of this by the way was no basis in fact or reality, just an assertion. Resumption of a fact of of of
worst possible scenario for Hilary em in the circumstance, but a barring a cataclysmic event. I think she has a very significant advantage from here on in and it works like this. She has four paths to winning the nomination and Trump has one, which is to say she can win by simply duplicating the electoral map than a bomb a one with in twenty twelve, and he got three hundred and thirty two electoral votes to two hundred and six, and that was that was that or she can win a squeaker in which she loses a couple of the states that are bomber one, but still ends up winning, say two hundred, maybe six electoral votes or
She can secure the raw states by the end of the summer, and Trump continues to melt down and make himself look unstable, at which point she concern broadening the map to states that no Democrat has carried in forever, like, as we ve seen this week, Utah, where she's behind by three points and one survey like Arizona where she is behind by two points, like even Georgia, which Democrats have fantasized about women because of a large african american population, but seemed never to get all that close, but where the polling there is also bizarrely close, and if those states go, you could see other
weird places where maybe something could flip and she could be looking at three hundred, maybe or four hundred electoral votes and thirty five to forty states, and then she wins a a blow out, not quite on the order of Reagan's forty nine states or Johnson's or Nixon's plus six. Plus percent, but you know a very serious bush. Eighty, it style landslide, and he has one path: He has only one path, which is he's gotta. Take three of that he's got it he's, got a reverse field in three Romney states right that again floored, Ohio in Pennsylvania or Floor, Ohio in Virginia Fly. Ohio in and Virginia in North Carolina Whatever. I can remember what, but then in none of them. Is he leading now
serious structural disadvantages in places like the Philadelphia suburbs, where my his very unpopular, the Miami area right you don't go after, has been judged for three weeks to win my everyday right, I'm not just there. I mean I mean in all of these places. He may. Of more appeal to white voters, Then Romney did even though Romilly one, the largest majority white voters ever of the largest number of white voters ever, but you know to the extent that he can flip hundreds of thousands of votes in each state to his advantage and then Hilary just sort of craters. I serve dont know can it happened? It can happen. I'm saying she. She isn't catbird see electrically. She has many paths and he has one and its better as the Tab one and to make matters worse, for
He shows no inclination towards operating the kind of machine. In you would need to even focus on that. One path he's got no sort of technical, How there's no steam in place that that is the sort of, has the autonomy to act in an do these things? You know that I was a big story. This we had. There is no Trump campaign right as there is a man and there are nowhere in so that yet two weeks ago or last week, a camera was, he fired, Rick Wily this long time republican operative, because some Florida operative, who had been with Trump and Florida complain. The wily wasn't meister, so that was at Trump. Can them about I don't think wily is necessarily a very good political operative. He did a terrible John Rang Scott Walkers presidential campaign, but he's at least within the context of working political operatives,
and you know we saw just this week Trump going after the judge, all kinds of republican politicians, rearing and horror and saying this is terrible, two or three senators withdrawing when particular mark with a very tough race for Reelection Illinois, withdrawing his endorsement of Trump Lindsey, Graham and withdrawing his endorsement of Trump of the event or city where he said he would vote for. I made in doing that. We didn't have an endorsement moment, but. You know you're here you're, seeing that and then the question has what, where these people, whereas everybody go, what at the outset, he does that and then he issues the statement. Very measured written by obviously by his lawyer, say you sorry if he was misconstrued, which of course he wasn't. But
but trying to explain how there was a reason to think that the findings and the case so far had not been fair, blah blah blah, and he was the talk about this any more and then he went on John how they show and he talked about its more because he can't because he is who is a cabin help himself and whole issue- I think in this case- is everyone says: he's gonna grow it. It's growing deeds of this. He needs that. What is it what it weighs? Why would he listened? Mitch. Mcconnell, say yes to grow if you're Donald Trump you're like who is which Mcconnell so when Centre racism Kentucky. What does he know you no five and so we Windsor raises in kentucky- and you know, he's helped Republicans get elected stand up here and there, but he doesn't know anything. I I'm the one who draws thirty thousand people to a crowd, but I would say that the key thing here is a classic sports and challenge which, as we all know his fastball right, every he's got a fastball fastball. Is he blows it by
who calls you names he He says he speaks his mind that the question is: can develop slider cause. You need three pitches when you're going in the major colleagues too. Election. You need to be able to grace Lee handle questions which is like the curve and gracefully get your walk yourself out of trouble or to avoid trouble, then, you need to be able to develop to deliver. Hits that will which is this would be the slider. You need to be able to develop devastating heads that dog, look like you are slamming somebody over the head and being over the head with the two by four, and you first need to make them make a mistake right, that's the whole point of the sliders. You make someone swing at a pitch. That is actually a that is actually a ball and He is doing nothing to develop the curve of the slider right emergency.
You first need to know that you need to develop the curveball newsletter. I don't. I don't alleged, thinks now that you're absolutely right, because he's gotten a lot of assistance from places like conservative, online media outlets and and radio and television outlets that have really finished his sentences. For him, that's gone, that's not around anymore. His second impulses to throw money problems and he doesn't have any money. His campaign and his outside groups are not according to open secrets which compiles these sort of things based on financial disclosure is of mid may his campaign and his his outside support of group
have a grand total of two point: seven million dollars cash on hand. They burned about sixty million dollars over the course of this campaign, which isn't a lot, but it's a huge burn rate. Conversely, Hillary Clinton and her outside groups have over seventy six million dollars on hand right now, to throw at a campaign to run a real campaign and national campaign with a grassroots operation in a lot of ads, and the whole union works that we, action taken at Romney apart over the course of twenty two Arran him into a real building, and we saw the first add this week called grace. If you haven't seen a go, you tube and look at it. It is an ad about Trump making fun of surge. Convalesce gave the rapporteur for the New York Times, whose born with a disability related to his hands about a disabled, kid em. What what it means for a leader of a country to to act this way towards disabled people. It's
Astoundingly powerful and you know again the whole the whole thing about him is he he has been making an hour. He was making argument to republican audiences, which is like you say that I care with Hispanics, but I won Hispanics one is banned, some, so I can win Hispanics, but he didn't win Hispanics in the Volga. He won republican caucus goers, who happened to be hispanic in Nevada if he did the the polling questionnaire, the Paulie is very weak, but even if he won them they up twelve or fourteen and sixteen percent of the overall hispanic population of the state of Nevada and probably of the United States in general, and he himself may not now having settled. This line for so long he may have convinced himself of the truth of it Remember Romney, one, twenty, seven percent of the hispanic vote and the entire
autopsy that currency went through the problem there through and through, and twenty thirteen was about how it for public, don't forget where to get that vote over thirty percent. They will now again when another national election and maybe Trump seek Look arguments and Hilary is, you know Hilary is ethical disasters, and all that give a republic Can an opening to two would have given a Republican, an opening to secure that over thirty percent thirty five percent in twenty sixteen, but when it's June and he's attacking judge with her. Panic last name for being hispanic Eustace, giving at I am using making free commercials fur to be run on innovation and tell him Udo and in spanish language median and what's more to two Hispanics who don't speak Spanish, who are
first or second or third generation Hispanics who use it. The jewish analogy. Dont need to be. You know, immigrants to know when somebody is dog is: is dog whistling against their their people? It is barely dog whistling media. It's the most on which we have right? It's whistle yes whistling! It's like you exactly wolf whistling it's more than just I mean not really hammer this its, but if it's worth hammering as that it, we gotta remember that this attack on a can on a judge basin is, admittedly, is in service not to some Eames of the nation, but to his personal advancement because he's under possibly threat of conviction and fraud case.
Four defrauding people out of their money that conviction right we ve found liable. I guess Europe's our ear, I told myself is liable fervour defrauding people out of their very harder and cash tens of thousands of dollars for something that was a loser. And he's running the campaign that you save me. You know I'm running against a rigged system, while he's the avatar the rig system. He was rigging the system himself and in order to get himself out of that personal liability, he would use the platform of the presidency to pack somebody's ethnicity city really hard not to wrap up into something. That's just going to destroy his candidacy, which is why we are seeing Republicans take their endorsements back for the first time and I history- I don't remember- I remember any body ever- was run of any non endorsement and that with its Kirk's might not be the last and in the Lindsey Grams, urging others to do. This suggests that
we're not going to tell you not have something programmes withdrawn his endorsement Jeff Lake Virus over says he will not. He cannot endorse Ben SAS. As we now know, brass gather freshmen centre. For the rest, it has made it clear he cannot endorse. You. Could Susan cause what rule abortive raillery? Where do you go? You can have a cigarette number of republican elected officials, nation of nation wide no nationally who willed either de endorse or will announce in our voting forum. That also would be unprecedented. Look at that ants Margo Rubio was doing. He loves me from amendment no, he won't speak form of the convention that we want vote. Yes, he's a racist, I get you know. Well, that's The insidious thing is that trumps incoherence is sort of is, is transfer like you can catch once you once you endorse and because then you have to talk about how to You have to respond to his latest outrage and and and put it in prospect
of your endorsement, so you come. My polarize at this is the textbook definition of racism and debt yeah? Guess I'm still kind of endorsing him in that we'll get you out of a lot of troubles caused Republicans in Congress who ve been assaulted by reporters and figuratively assaulted by reporters trying to get them on the record about trumps attacks on these judges in its policy preferences, and why have you they're they're, really making fools of themselves trying to avoid these questions? Questions about the republican Domini? I don't want to talk about this. I want to talk about this other thing that nobody is interested in It gets a dance. You can't keep up for along in the incentive, is, did not endorse and then also you're off the hook for at least a little bit right. Good, that's the name! That's the year venues cycle was you sound, a sort of incoherence but a view. You are making a point earlier about how the endorsements that followed trumps. Securing the nomination effectively in early may represent
did an effort to imagine that the twenty sixteen campaign was a normal campaign do in other words I mean that's what centrally impetus a sort of half a wish to. You know that I can things are required. Crazy and he says some crazy things, but this action like like other labelled it'll, take on a certain shape in the party will will rally round its is. Now many and and so doing will be able to steer him in and you look a key things within the normal range of of of rhetoric and- policy positions, but Trump himself resists this is normal shape. He resists coherence, so it it it's. It keeps sort of. You know. Exploding, back out of shape, and and now when, when you had If you are someone who endorse them, you're you're now tied to endure and at Every time now he makes a new teleprompter speech or where a worry worry says
He speaks for ten minutes without saying something blatantly offensive people, yes, a Newt Gingrich last night say I think this is the pivot. Now I think this is you know there is a sort of fingers crossed again. This is taking on the normal shape of a campaign, and I think you're gonna get burned and burned again, because I think he resists till we ve been here before the teleprompter speech in a pack was in March Twenty first, the foreign policy speech was on April twenty seven, the both teleprompter speeches both time were preceded and followed by a crazy controversies. Overshadowed the message and another thing about Hilary over the last two weeks is terrible. Candidate leaped Sanders rise only made gaffes last too, last really weaken a half. She has made to extremely good, so serious elevated speeches, if,
He continues to strike the stone and even though reporters are going to scream and yell because she doesn't give them any time for obvious reasons which is she doesn't want to be asked about the email. So she can't really. You know herself up to that. But if she runs a classic Barack Obama strategy, which is don't talk to reporters, accept people on the view, and you now bear grills em. Maybe she can, you know, go on. Some other idiot shower to where out she bakes, cookies and or betta fishes or something then release is a lot of video content that they make themselves and then she makes these public addresses that, are you no serious and sober? As I said and elevated, she, can glide through this. While he continues to assume He gets all this attention by being deliberately outrageous m. That's the point,
position that he will be testing this year and that we simply won't know. The answer to until November is pressed elections are about picking the person who defines the centre of gravity of the United States. Whatever the result is, that's where you know the centre of gravity is Republicans have resist this lesson for years, because they claim that, despite the fact that Al Gore and Ralph Data you know together added up to fifty three percent of the vote and on the left in two thousand and oh bomber, one. Fifty four percent in two thousand eight me one, fifty two percent in two thousand and twelve, all of which suggest the country is not a conservative country anymore, but is centre left country they resisted this. They don't believe it. They don't want to believe it this elections about this. In the center and Hillary Clinton for all ever
Thing that everybody who listens this podcast, everybody who reads commentary everybody who reads: conservative publications knows as a person of highly questionable character possible. Followed his behaviour and a person of you know who, whom you know? We have very harsh feelings about none is running as somebody who wants to own the centre and Trump is not, and so may win because this we're in a revolutionary year in which it people don't want embrace the center, but I don't think we should assume That is a revolutionary year. In the end, the Republican who led in the polls- one in you, know from July July to May one nomination and the democratic leaden from February.
June. One. The nomination, that's a Democrat verses Republican with a democratic president who is above fifty percent in his personal approval ratings. According gallop. Republicans have a high mountain to climb here. Having a candidate who is not attempting to make himself more palatable to people who don't like confrontation as the voice of the country there it's going to be a rough ride what's more and I'm going to write on this is the notion that this is a really angry electorate is betrayed by all those things. You say as well as the fact that every single income, it with two exceptions, was returned. Every federal income in one of which is a Democrat who is under indictment for corruption, and the other was a Republican who was redistricted into a disc
where'd you she was fighting another Republican, and so you can't really draw a lot of and was endorsed. I trump and was Robo call em, for whom Trump recorded a robot call and Renee murmurs of North Carolina and she lost. Who is also by targeted by the coke back. They have p and club for growth. The result is a very strange situation and rock airline is currently draw lots of assumptions from that. You can't say that voters are not interested in going out and come. That's not suggest that this is not a really angry electorate. Is not a revolutionary year, and that leads to one really final interesting prospect, which is pretty fanciful that I think we all have to engage in it, because that's going to be the talk of the town this this coming week, we had conventional wisdom and the start of this year's said that Trump has a kind of a one off candidate in the silly publicity stunt he couldn't be the nomination, then they said
would never rally around him, including the Senate Majority leader, said and probably will never rally round him as a nominee. Then they said there would be. No non endorsements has never happened before it could never happen. Now. All these things have happened and are also saying the delegates will never be unbound. That's just never gonna happen. It's never happened before. It certainly will happen now, and yet you have a lot of people starting to speculate about it, starting to talk about a very seriously including delegates. What do you think the chances are that we get a rules committee vote that says you know. Maybe we have a vote early on two unbind on the first ballot. What do I think that
chances are, I think, they're about five percent, but if, but if Trump has thirty five days more over the course of June and July, like the five previous, the five days before we record this podcast, you know all bets would be off then, because both see. We could see Hilary, let let me put it this way. Hilary consolidates the the democratic vote gets a lot of positive attention. There's no indictment trump keeps coming up with things that sounds crazy. Him get Republicans all nervous and unnerving like that, and its
July fifteenth and the public in our joy, tensor problem conventions about to start in about a week and pillars up by fifteen points and he is losing in every state he's in the electoral map. Them is at four hundred or four hundred twenty electoral votes for Hilary Tab trumps. Whatever hundred twenty could thereby- and then yes, will they almost certainly but that I think, is the only scenario in which you could see that happening. It becomes a suicide pact, you know I'd you enter into that of with the understanding that we're we're gonna blow this whole thing up, we'll agreement, and I think the only reason people talk about it because the sort of its it does. Gentry that option you lose options is time go. And now this is proof of this is the last one. So this has become the focus, but it's not you know it's not it's. It's not a reasonable
Presented by the way, also give you a little more I'm trying to find these numbers, but I'm having trouble, because I'm on my among my phone here, but you don't Donald Trump- has one more existed done, an incredibly well Publican primaries one. So many votes and blob of all that so who has more votes primary boats? Hillary Clinton has secured more, has has one more votes in the democratic primary them than trumpets. Wonder Publican primary between Hilary and Bernie Thereabout, four million more democratic voters in the primary season
and there are four than there were republican voters despite the sixteen candidates and all that so again, just using those numbers as a basis on which you assume that everybody who say voted the primaries votes in the general. The Democrats are going into this with a structural advantage of about three or four million voters with eight with a candidate who has already got more votes than than the Republican he so
republicans. Publicans often, conservatives don't seem to know a lot of this information because of the bubble that a lot of people live in and don't serve unwilling to face the facts and also at, but I think you have to face the facts and look at it this way and then and then you'll understand why so many of us have been so alarmed at trumps rise and why all the data that had been thrown at us to suggest that he was a incredibly formidable national candidate. Do not suggest any such thing and that the only thing that suggests that he's a formal actual candidate is that he.
Is this question whether or not he is representing a national mood, a national spirit than a national ethos that have changed profoundly and that he is at the center of a whirlwind that is going to sweep everything away? I cannot imagine that that is true. If Barack Obama has a fifty two percent approval rating, these two facts do not connect in any way shape or form. When George W went before Barack Obama won his landslide in two thousand and eight George W Bush was at three thousand two hundred and thirty one to thirty two percent approval Obama's at fifty two percent approval. This is not suggest.
Even though people say the countries on the wrong track and all that this does not suggest a revolution public with a revolutionary mindset more, they say that bad news it helps down trunk to in so far as people are nervous. They want change. So if there is some sort of a terrorist event got for better another recession or a downturn in the economy, something it'll it'll benefit trump because of agenda, just a change mood that affects an electorate at the end of that to term incumbents presidency and that's possible, but it also suggests that a lot of the country will succumb to that notion that that you hear from Donald Trump Supporters M Bernie supporters who say: let's really blow this thing out, how bad could it be? They will genuinely mean that until reporters all the time, let's try something radically different in change. Everything and that's a sentiment that cuts against what we understand is the general election
mood of the electorate, is towards continuity and stability. It's not towards radical change. It's not! It's never been on a radical country that wants to really overturn institution. People want change, but they want change of the classic thing about the american democracy. Is this notion that its played within the forty yard lines? You know it's not play them? It's not played with. You know everybody get out the entire field, its that there is a will. There is a range of respectable opinion somewhere between forty eight out of ten yards. Ten yards, the left and ten yards the right- and this is the field which we will play now. Candidates can then get not, can get elected and then play and put pull the field further in their direction, which I think Obama has done, but it's not
by the way, the continuity and issue, and this notion that terrible trouble in the form of a terrorist attack or something like that will help Trump is again untested may been tested nor Publican primary, where where obviously toughness was the number one value that people seem to want in a candidate. That is not necessarily true of the general Electric. But what they may want is calm, serious, determine response. You know, and obviously Benghazi did not help Mitt Romney and you know, even though it happened on Obama's watch in September of twenty twelve end and there's no reason to think necessarily that a terrible thing to happen to the United States in the course of time. Assuming a a rational response by Obama and EVA solid response by Hilary will not be more satisfying them Trump going Bananas
noise can just can advise him, especially once they go to him for his quote on the manner in which he he says something, you know completely off the reservation and right and an absolutely, but you won't say something off the reservation. He'll say exactly what you think he'll say: he'll say this country's a disaster and our leaders dont know what they're doing, and I know what they're doing and I know how to fix, You can predict ascend to my right now he's not going to delay the easiest. Eighty might say also out we gotta get Muslims out of the country that wouldn't even be surprised or know that wouldn't be surprising, but of course the question then would be. Hillary Clinton has now basically aligned herself. As a liberal internationalist too believes more than Obama
Turning to her own speeches believes more in America as a force for good and the use of american power to advance american interests. That is her. That's how she is phrasing. This and Trump is leading more toward a kind of you now what any Mccarthy NASH you called years ago this house give em hell. You know given how alliance, where you, just u bomb the crap out of people you don't like, and then you leave them to their own devices. So his only four of interventionism is, is that would be serve upon a deal to punish the bad guys. If you can, you have you know where they are just punish them, but they do but don't do anything else, but I think he said that his NEO isolationism is very important is met. Edge and Hilary might end up to his right on when it comes to this matter, not to his left
she made. She may advocate more serious action, accident Obama's willing willing to take and she she can serve attack Obama from the wood from the right and see where that leads her. But I don't think we know that we know that trumps answer will dovetail with what the electorate expects of the republican nominee. If there is a terrorist attack We just don't know so that I think, brings us to the end of another. Thrill and delightful commentary, podcast full of high good humour and reckless good spirits about the future of the country. That we all love so much so please join us commentary. Seventy one year old, monthly magazine of opinion and analysis among the most distinguished them, our common history. Please join us for a daily conversation at Commentary magazine, dot, com
I sign up to subscribe for nineteen dollars and ninety four cents. You get total access to commentary digitally as well as our Ipad APP and for two thousand nine hundred and ninety five. You get everything plus our beautiful printed monthly magazine in your mailbox eleven times a year. We're just closing other issue this week with a lot of rich, good stuff, thrilling depressing, exciting, interesting, and that should be really some good meat and good good specimens over a summer of depressing conventions and a fall of a fall of despair. But you know if we can stave off despair by thinking interesting thoughts. I hope
do that. I hope will join us again next week for no arrangement and they Grimaldi John put words, and this has been the commentary magazine.
Transcript generated on 2020-02-27.