« Commentary Magazine Podcast

Commentary Podcast: June Is the Cruelest Month

2016-06-01 | 🔗
Everything is terrible! But we try to keep our spirits up on this week's podcast. John Podhoretz, Abe Greenwald, and Noah Rothman point out that the two major candidates are unpopular and unsavory in different ways, gorillas are dragging kids around, and suddenly Americans aren't living as long as they used to. Despite all that, we're full of energy and vim and vigor. It's like being in an elevator in free fall — scary but exhilarating! Give a listen here.
This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
Some guy, Welcomes the commentary. Magazines hog cast I'm John passports. The editor commentary with me, as always nor Rossman, are systematically another high. Now John and a Ringwald, our senior editor, I John Jay but its June first, and you know what that means. It means everything is terrible as usual, oh, is dragging children around zoos. Mothers getting blamed. Hell a bold north, western, universally graduate students forcing the school to draw up a plan to name a decorated, General Carl. I can very to run a leadership institute.
People in the nation of Venezuela are having their water and aspirin rationed Donald Trump attacking the judge. Hearing his Trump EU case for being a maxim. And then the judge in question born in Indiana and under a death watch, because presided over prosecutions of mexican drug cartels. Hilary Clinton's emails proving the Gonoph and to top it off the death rate in TWAIN fifteen in the United States rose for the first A decade there's no appetite MAC. There's no AIDS there's nothing to explain this except the decline. And fall of the working class white male doc entered and study after study in the last three or four years. Depression, obesity, heart disease, addiction, wilds, tick in Overdoses and deaths due to addiction so thing
I'm not good gentlemen they're, not good, and they don't seem to be getting much better. So somebody a green walled, cheer me up soon. The German out before I cheer you up. Let me bring you further believe it or not. I said cheer me up believe believe it or not. That list is not exhaustive. You forgot the poetically, awful event of Memorial Day weekend where a world war, two era thundercats, went down in the Hudson. Just as an add as a cat, the war that, on that that storm sure there are there other yes, Washington, Dc Metro catching fiery. Five minutes read: write for New Yorkers, the the soon to shut down l, train, the soul of the soul, connection between parts of Manhattan imports abroad infrastructure collapsing. Yes, yes, ok so too to cheer you up here me up
See if this is a cheery motion we will soon be will we will soon be done with this phase of the election and onto the general election? That is true a fresh start of as of now sorts. Please explain what happens next, Tuesday next his ears but you seventh slash seventh as the last primary dag, actually there's a something or other authorities in very good. I guess you're right there are. There is another contest, but it'll be over. It's been but it really really be over this time caused California in New Jersey are the two biggest ones about, and they are to decide this primary rates for both Republicans and Democrats Republican raises pretty much four according to some unpledged delegates based on who AP talk to, but it'll really fully be entirely decided by pledged delegates when needed. In California vote for Republicans for Democrats, Hilary current this kind of not entirely sure whether she's gonna the nomination in
New Jersey? I think she probably will that's, because New Jersey closes three hours before California right he has about a hundred and eighty delegates at stake. She needs eighty, I think, or eighty two to something on those lines is less than one hundred and sixty seven like tat. So she would need more than a majority of the delegates in New Jersey to clench before California closes, at which point she will, of course, assuming bring centres. Doesn't when ninety two percent Vote clinch right, say other there's, some rather fanciful. Eyes in going on is how Bernie Sanders could turn the tables on Hillary Clinton, with his fanciful theorizing becoming from Douglas shown, who, I believe, made a name for himself in twenty eleven claiming the Brok Obama would not Run free election in a series of our beds in the same paper. The Wall Street Journal, which he announced this morning that Bernie Sanders might still be
how many would say without wishing it might be that Mr Mr shown he has some actual em, mines in the Sanders Camp were also very much assured that there, be a political earthquake in the event that Hillary Clinton even narrowly wins. California, and all those super delegates that she has under her ten will shake loose and jump to burn. Andrews, there's also a gas competing theory, mostly on the right that What advanced by, I think was Andrew Mccarthy, who said that the democratic, pull talk. Tourists and Hillary Clinton could look really ugly in terms of poles. Had had pulled against Donald Trump by the time the convention rules around and there will be a switch room in which the party gets behind. Vice president, Joe Biden, all of these things seem rather excitable but you know what I mean: it's been a crazy crazier, so maybe it'll just continue to get crazier. I'm not tired.
Tell the truth. Is it's not that crazy, you're right, the guy who lead in the polls in the republican primary from July, ninth, two thousand and fifteen on? Where does the nominee in the woman who is leading the polls in the Democratic Party since and you worry of twenty fifteen is gonna, be the nominees she probably should clinched three months ago and she didn't but she's going to, and so we have the two leaders winning and end Hilary by the way, despite all this, oh Bernie Sanders so charge was so amazing successful what an amazing Hilary, If you, the votes, has one fifty six percent of the democratic votes in the primary against Sanders is forty two. So it's ridiculous to claim that Hillary Clinton is not the consensus choice of her party Sanders winds. Carcasses he does not intend to enlarge. Primaries is one a couple. Large primary one was concept Michigan, but I mean that that's the truth of it is that you know he he is a candidate of what might be considered
Populist organised elite that plays games with me party rules in smaller contests, and she is a person who, racked up victories of fifty two sixty points and twelve states early on and basically took an insurmountable ie or the case for Bernie Sanders being an actual entity. Here is the fact that he was in nobody, but he before he ran for the presidency. The reason why you ran for the presidency is because nobody else was interested in challenging Hillary Clinton. Nobody here- and there is the irony here- is the irony, because, as we stand here in June, we see why things happen. The rubble party, the way they happened and why things have happened. Democrat Party, the way they happened, There was an open seat, people want to be. President ran for the presidency and the Republican Party in twenty. Sixteen everybody who could run
realistic argument for running and then a couple of people who had no realistic argument for running ran and they all we're like, but for cars they crashed into each other. They can Obliged each other's votes and nobody prevailed this guy, who came in from the outside and took forty percent of the vote and drew and through them all out of the way in democratic party. What we see as if there had been won the credible candidate to challenge Hillary Clinton, credible, not Martineau Molly, who had been the governor of Dino Work of Maryland Marilyn to eighty two years ago, You know it's a sitting centre, a prominent persons and the party who would have said I've seen you I see who you are, I see what you ve done. I disagree with you. It is a sign of the incredible weakness of the Democratic Party, the incredible weakness that Hilary did not of a serious challenger and, moreover, a sign of some disease and that in the Democratic Party that an
see she was allowed to walk into an open seat when she is a terribly compromised and problematic candidate, and that was clear in my ouch of last year, when all the stuff, sir, coming out about the emails of GM that herein, this press conference at the? U N, where she was I'd seven times and every he came back and when we oh and then there was all that Clinton cash stuff about the speeches and her talking to these firms Oh buddy got in the ways it Sounding the party, the Democratic Party is probably he may have no center, but that the Democratic Party is nothing but a series of controlled interest groups that if one per so we can get their midst on them. Everybody else's shut out. That's really really unhealthy. It's it's unhealthy, but in it things easier for them in the sense that it keeps
whoever's running for whatever office it among Democrats. They have their script down, they they they talk to those those interest groups and- and and there's no straying, there's no there's there. They're, not gonna, cannibalize each other in the same way. But how much of this can we just a tribute to incumbency right? I mean there's a different dynamic when it comes to succeeding in incumbent president, they do have an anointed successor most of the time, as opposed to a leaderless party like the Republican Party. That really doesn't have anybody can rally. Significant injury is no interest successor, she's the anointed successor on the grounds that she came and second two thousand me and famous and was Paulie well right. So imaginative I haven't hadn't chickened out in September and had run had actually gone at her about the emails and had said look, I didn't have a private email, server, Barack Obama D. Never
I would e mail server you at a private email service. Who are you trying to hide information from where you try to hide information from the president? That's not kosher, that's not cricket imagine this one guy knows a buffoon, and we all think you silly in these old it's terrible, full of himself look where she is now look last. This inspector general report that came out you know last week would have would would have killed should be killing her candidacy. Were it not for the fact that he's already won the race and that she's running against a lunatic and and because the Republican Party has nominated an unbelievably compromise person? She will still, I think, the elves odds to be president despite all this, but I'm saying it is a whit. Is the failure of the Democratic Party, too, provide its own people and the country with an alternative to her.
It leads us in this position where its June seventh Party hasn't there. Their party hasn't coalesced, and she is a war king disasters. She can't given interview. She can't give a press conference. Could she can Campbell the questions he would Hilary come later. Then thirteen months and she's had a press conference. Jeer wonder why will nevertheless press conference that was great for her I was doing now is trying to take a page from the Trump playbook where she is calling into cable news shows and cable news shows our allowing her to do so because they have created this standard whereby presidential candidates can sit in their home in their pajamas and look at notes and calling the cable news chosen that consists of an interview That's our new reality, but he's doing so in in a way, that's very defensive, as you say, she's she's trying to change the subject, but the subject is: is her and rather than doing the while
The irresponsible approach to these interviews that trumped up, as which creates the sense that he's on often by going in saying that my opponent really, the true Bt K Killer and the only then has to respond to that absurd accusation, but that's his way of keeping on offence. Hillary Clinton. It is just a little bit more responsible than that and declines to mount these wild accused. Korea, accusations, and so she seen like she's constantly on defence. That sounds like they mean it doesn't reflect really well in her as a campaigner. But it's also. What does she supposed to do? She was. She was not clear from wild she's creator of the wild accusatory gave right. Monica Lewinsky monocle whence he comes out, story of a monarch Lucy. She goes on the today shown says: there's a vast rightwing conspiracy against my husband. Right, that's she. She spun the story, away from bill.
Let the ninety ninety eight in a way that saved his presidency and lamed everything on this. You know purported conspiracy to destroy him and oh she. She has this. She's. One of the inventors of this than the trump is apparently perfected. The problem for herds not that she's not responsive. What's that she's, not light on our feet and she doesn't know she doesn't know had a headache provides. You know some he says to you, you're Noah, I come to you and I say no, I there's a problem with your expense account you ve charged, two thousand five hundred dollars oh two of you, know in meals at per se, and if your trial you go. You come back at me and say you know well- you know I was convicted of you know. Abe was convicted of manslaughter and twenty eleven am like eight was convicted of manslaughter.
Look it up, though we have the record expunge, but it's really true and then through you know it's like she doesn't know how to do that. They say to her emails, emails emails. She should say something like. I can't So you're saying this to me, I mean I happen to know that the islands that Jack Sucker, the head of your network. You know kill the guy? You know whatever their that's, how you do it. She doesn't know, to do that, but we opened up this this none. I. What I just said is true: I want to make the point that Jeff Zuckerberg you're the guy. No, it did not violate these expense account and I got off a able It has no criminal record that I know that we just opened this podcast with a monologue about decline, fundamental irreversible american decline moment reversing about well at yeah. I mean ok, that's that's that's maturing. Everybody Harry IRAN, irreversible, not irreversible, lovely, but then we
guess what we think should happen over the course of this presidential, raise because these two characters are going at each other. With this, these really pugilistic up approached her to campaigning that is kind of did disregards facts, facts, her secondary. What's really important, is landing a punch to me sounds like we're sort of advocating the. Can the furtherance of decline in so far, as you know, does the standards of dialogue, standards of of comedy and personal interaction, and what we expect from our elected leaders were you know Don't don't really work so we're saying if you can't be them, join up, I'm saying Hillary Clinton has not had a moment in which she has been able to advance an agenda for thirteen months because she's a crook and she can, get an open fields in which to talk about our proposal. To do this that are proposed, that because all anybody wants to ask her properly is
what was a story with those emails. How much made you making these speeches? What did you say? The Goldman Sachs? What happened with the Clinton Foundation were back. Toward deals being done to to benefit Clinton found asian donors. While you were secretary of State, she cannot answer those questions. I presume she cannot answer them for two reasons, one of which is that there are legal, savings, and she cannot. She speaks of open MIKE in an open field and that stuff is admissible? Evidence and the other is that it's all true. Hiding from the media. The only reason that is possible for him to do so heavy made candidate for a major political party hiding from the media, the old the reason that is possible for him to do so, forces that she's the Democrat. Won't you know that the closest thing. I suppose she could do to taking the trap approach would be to risk by saying you, ve got republican
can't on the other side calling me crooked Hilary. The p where's we're just released from his ongoing fraud trial in which his Ex employees are are claiming that they were instructed to to build. The poor and the elderly out of out of their money, to teach to tell them how to how to max out their credit cards to pay for a further and she has said exactly that this morning, Wednesday June. First, this morning she already has started in on. Revelations from thee released depositions from the Trump you trial so standard problem. There is- and this is where we have this nightmare of a race. Is that she'll say that he'll collar crook shall call him a crook. He'll call her a crook both crooks and leave her. We must run crooks- and you know
We talked about this last week, but you know the funny part as we work well. Trump is really unifying. Solidifying is republican base safe than these poles holiest, twelve Son of Republican say they are not satisfied with their happier. And then she chill unify her party when Sanders is gone, horribly negative campaigning in which there is no actual positive approach for the future What you say, look he's a fee, I am person. His vision is skewed. His idea their bad, I'm the better person for the few. Sure, I'm the candidate of hope, I'm the candidate of change right, that's the classic. If you have a mud wrestling match for five months. The end result is that people are gonna be turned off. This is gonna, be a low turnout election, not a high turnout election. There seems to be fantasy abroad. That Trump is gonna. Bring all these
voters into the rear, blah blah blah new voters who have been so depressed? Okay, so may, you'll bring in three or four like depressed people who have voted before, but You're gonna be ten million people who are so nauseated by what they see between now, November in what they have seen so far that you now, if snowflake on election day, you know there is a you know, if, if they have a choice between go to vote and getting a massage they'll get a massage. You know what wife, what what are you than a bother for what? What? What will casting this vote means? If you're, extremely idiot, logical, you might be voting on one side or another on the Supreme Court, but how many people have what part? What percentage of electorate is that five percent six percent, not that high people who folk that instinctively on something, and then we will talk about this earlier. Let us let us
I'm a little fantasy about the debate. Assuming that there are debates because they're, my mouth AIDS, let's assume their debates. What are they talk about? So if they get two issues? what are they gonna talk about so shall say: you're anti woman and your you know, and you don't believe in a woman's right to her own body and he'll say: yes, I'm not auntie woman, your auntie woman, because you would tact rape, victims and defended rapist when you were a lawyer and- and I support plan parenthood and I'm a woman's right to choose so suddenly you're going to have a republic in supporting abortion and a democratic, its wording, abortion. The hinge issue. The here Devising issue between the
the parties for the last forty years, I mean really over thirty five years since since the Carter presidency, the key dividing line, will be completely obliterated right. Well, you didn't. I have a theory on those needed until it was really gonna in that way- and I may be wrong- but it's my experience- that media types, particularly the debate are focused very much on creating weighty between the two candidates distinctions and word distinctions lack they. They dont really focus on them so because these two candidates are on policy pretty temper mentally similar when it comes to stuff like abortion in FED, got federal. Intervention and stuff like that, that they won't really focus a lot on that it'll come up, but it won't be the key focus because their third, their idea here there their effort is to create complex, great head budding and so the focus on ways that they really do differentiate, which are very much personality
I mean I disagree me, they ve been gender is, is it can be a huge issue, with a Trump and Hilary raise its there's no way. It's not gonna, come up very, very explicitly. I'm right now the polling suggested secular than that in these poles trumpets ahead with men by thirteen point and she's ahead with women by twenty. So that is the largest gender gap that will ever had veto on record it's gonna widen. If she does even a minimally decent job will widen, because women will come to her side as things go on tat, you re a conflict between the genders by bringing up abortion and birth control rights, which both candidates generally agree on. When you talk about it, because you want talk webbing rightly talk about the heart, but an issues. What where they will disagree is on guns he's now on record as a sort of second amendment, absolutist of some sort, o and she'll, be the shall be that the anti gun person.
And by the way, that's now made easier. I think for her now harder because she will have probably written off most of the states in which that might play a deciding factor, assuming that she's gonna win on the yellow bomb, a map of twenty twelve, which won a bomb. A three hundred and thirty two electoral votes That's a perfectly good map social play. This essentially soft cultural card and he'll play this hard card right he's here the mean son of a bitch who is gonna. You now get this country and she's the it's us also ugly, so ugly in Vienna. We just need to help kids get through college and an end and be nice to the elderly you don't do that that stuff, so it'll be hard versus soft, and I don't know
What's this country like isn't this country is so hard? I think it's these a parody of hard he's, not really hard he's. Not you know, daddy means, like you know, he's like the daddy who never comes home and spends You know the whole evening drinking at the bar, daddy he's not like the daddy comes home and you know like reads story and tells you a homily and put you too bad and takes you to church. On Sunday I mean that's, not the kind of daddy. He is he's like the dark, daddy and she is like the mommy she's like the sort of Mars, from little women. She gives you a big lecture, jig waggle, Sir finger at you and cheap in old shoe acts like, but you know she gives you stuff and cheap achieve, takes care of you in your second grass. It has brought to our european and no one is voting. Your figured out my right, that's, why point out of a low turnout, election
the machine that is more efficient at turning out, what voters will turn out the machine that wins and under those circumstances, the Democrats will win in November because their machine is better than she is better for five cycle, I one cycle in one two thousand and four Carl Rove reelection machine worked but in in ninety say in two thousand and two thousand aid in two thousand and twelve. The democratic machine was vastly vastly more efficient as well but what, if we tease out your fantasy more so than Trump says that and eradicate this. This line. It's been in existence between the two parties are about a board on that abortion. What, happens to his support. I say exactly nothing these days the saint, because his supporters, dont care or they're they're, not their interest in him, doesn't have to do a traditional social.
Conservative issues and Anyone whose whose considers reproductive. Its extraordinarily important is already on board for four Hilary look, if social conservatism die in this election, the unit there were two unifying glues of the republic party national security and traditional social, traditional ism, you could add guns, but I think guns actually actually count under as a kind of a man of the two security internationalism. If, social conservatism, is thrown into the ash heap of history by by the Trump candidacy We really are talking about an entire. A wee shuffling of american political issues the likes of which we have never seen, I don't buy it. We still have that that social conservatives who have gotten behind
I'll trump early and enthusiastically are people who have book deals and television shows and Radio Programme and another wise in industry that is built no person as a social conservative. You have other social conservatives who don't have those interests like Rick Santorum, who had not gotten on the trunk. Try. I say I fully endorse them danny- I knew that we endorse from last week on something, but now a to- and this is the point which is we heard all this Argo bargain twenty twelve at how they were by a million disappointed, DNS cons, over those who stayed home and then in Ohio and cost and costly- the state or something like that. Well I mean, if Trump doesn't something to talk to social conservatives, about the issues that are most important to them abortion being the key one. But now there's you know: you're gonna have this home march of of of
transgender is met a General reserve, the complete you know, elimination, any sense of the differences between between them, Anders and all that, and he obviously is not gonna. Wanna talk to that stuff and if you wanted to but people who are gonna be unenthusiastic when it comes to November accept because they don't like Hilary you're looking at trumpet perfect storm in the unenthusiastic category? He does not speak to the concerns of the classic republican voter He may speak to new concerns, and maybe there are sixty five million people who you know can be really can be cut of recombine the ashes of the old republican coalition to to go for true wars and die in our end up and border control. Building a wall and
All that. But I don't see the evidence for that, except in here success in the republican primary, which again was not even a majority marian success and in some of these polls that show him be her, although, as we were saying earlier, not above for two percent, like it's not like he's polling running away with that he's. Just keeping it right now. Is you close cause, she's weak she's week he's where he is. She is weak, thou. Obviously, in the end If she could only get thirty eight percent of the vote and he gets forty two percent of the vote and then some house that other twenty percent ends on some dance combination of greens and David French. Now the libertarians, and I don't know well. The rent is too damn high party you know, maybe he can win. Somehow get to fifty percent or fifty percent plus one, and where
at coalition is gonna, be built out of the his issues that I dont understand. If you believe him, he says that he will replace the conservatives who have been jettison from this coalition with disaffected Democrats. In reality, television start waters has never voted in their lives all without a data machine, as you say that at the polls suggest. Even though looking are getting around Donald Trump. They say you'd get over your your issue we ve got an election to win some eighty, almost ninety percent of the republican voter, those same poles, at least one say only a plurality bear plurality. Even under fifty and believe that Donald Trump represents the Republican Party, and that makes a lot of sense As he's not a conservative drew the Republican Party for people have come understand for the last fifty years is a conservative party is not a progressive party, and now it's become something more of a progressive party. As long as conservatives seem disaffected with this thing and Republicans are saying: republican officeholders are saying yeah,
but for this guy, even though is not a conservative, because we have to beat Hilary kind of a secondary motivation. Conservative, I'm kind of exists on the outside its not being transformed it's just kind of been exiled, which suggests that it, and survive in its current form and return in some fashion. If Donald Trump doesn't, when November the ideas or are floating out their outside, but then the two people are being re. Purposed are being turned into these populists instead fairly, at least temporarily. If they are that we don't know, I mean what we have here classically in the polls it we're seeing is the class republican, democratic or voter right. Four thousand one hundred and forty two percenter saying they'll vote for the Republican, whose name is Donald Trump. Four thousand four hundred and forty five percent of people are saying they'll vote for the Democrat. Who is Hillary Clinton that drives perfectly with what we would presume sort of floor, the ultimate floor of the voters.
I once left, and two possibilities: Trump can either excite people who are not excited or he can continue to depress. People who are not excite who are who are excited and, like I say, one raindrop, one snowflake one, you know the one less than one sole cycle appointment trip to the mall, instead of like waiting online for half an hour to cast your vote for somebody who makes you sick, that's not You dont presume that that's gonna happen. Another thing that I've it is that kind of interesting you again back the opening monologue you mentioned
His assault on judges are, this particular judge has an I kind of think, that's muted the whole, but the court argument I haven't heard a lot of people make the contention that Donald Trump is going to appoint, really great judges, considering now that he's in a full scale assaulting and somebody who has the temerity to Judah Katy civil suit against him. I will say the only thing that I hear people that I respect, saying who are now grudgingly saying that they will vote for trump if they had no of circumstances warrant. Is for it is the only issue on which they say that I know what Hilary will do. I don't really know what trample do, but you know I know, they're gonna be three nominees, and if the court goes liberal, you know everything that we care about is gonna go up in flames, but I'm telling you where this is going to have all too, because I'm hearing those people who used to say that a lot now, sir, not saying it very often I am thinking particularly of of radio host. I like in my very much you u at who made that argument frequently in and can persuasively whose now
over a little bit too excitement over the prospect of, simple announced some cabinet appointments at the convention. He still running a primary that he's one he's still making an argument to compel conservatives to support him. At this hour nominating convention, that's unique, and let you know also that it ty back into jobs, point about the debates? What do the, but the people can say when he, when he comes out in favour of a woman's right to abortion, was, I think, it's a complicated point the point here. A lot of this has to do with virtue, signalling or cultural signalling. Right now there is not. There is almost nothing that are present in the United States. Can do not just right now
but has ever been able to do about abortion as a national issue. That's what's interesting about it and since the Webster decision in nineteen ninety two affirmed, you know ROE V Wade the the notion that there was a role for the president to play in advancing You know the goal of the pro life movement has always been entirely on. The margins is doing participate in the Mexico City Conference on family planning, or do we not just the person at the Health Department of Health and human services? You know understand that there should be taught more talk about adoption as opposed to abortion. It is not an issue at the presidential level as long as it is a constitutional right and yet has been crucial for republican candidates to be pro life to unify the party and and
and to win support in the first place. Why? Because it is a tribal issue. It says I am you. I am one of you. I am not like some rich country club guy who doesn't care and likes. It doesn't care about this. You know what appears to be a terrible moral stains of no interest to me I appreciate you, I sympathise with you. I share your general either set of religious print. Those or I am we're respecter of your worldview, which is why, I would say, say the John Mccain position as I am pro life, because this is the world view in which I operate the Republican Party that sack. The presidency, if the presidency a sacrifice in that ground, there will have to be, some other form of cultural signalling, thirty forty million people who care but this issue deeply. It is the single as a as a
Google issue driver of of politics. There has not been anything like it in our lifetime and we are now in a position where approach guy has become the nominee, the party and here have to do something to talk to those people I mean I have to do something to get people who need to believe that their president shares or respects their moral frame and trump respects. All its moral frame. I don't know if he thinks he does. I think he's nothing, if not a virtue signal, as use as you say and he's signalling his his ability to speak to a certain demographic group that that's not his enchanted mother, that's that's! They don't feel. That's not. The desperate situation. What the problem is not that they feel these are you now pay? It's their successful people there just their evangelical Christians, mostly in some Catholics, are lot of Catholics and
it's, not virtual signally. In that sense, it's not like. Oh I'm, listening to you, I hear you it's there. Is a moral problem in this country. I share your concern about it. Trump has no such concern about this, the on March of sort of cultural liberalism and this vast this extraordinary, express strain of culture. Liberalism. That's now hurtling down the track. Haven't God knows where and there is no one in this race who, who has trumped certainly have does not have the vote. Abby Larry to say you know like haywire, The minute. You know it's one thing to say: we need to care about and respect the feelings of people think they were born in the wrong body or something like that. It's another two open public facilities to make all public facilities, including for under age people, UNICEF. In order to make sure that those people are. You now have have the r r
I had to go into the bathroom that they wish to use this or tat too. I which, as I'm saying, what's going bring them up. All his supporters would say let their attacking pc culture that that's that that's the assault on the line and their rights. They're right, and that is a very potent attack. I'm talking still about something else: the core route, Its voters rather than party has kick, cares about truly conservative issues. It's not the be all and end all you can't get nominated out of it, but it still twenty to thirty million people. What is you gonna, say to them to make sure that they stop just that they go to the polls. It's also this whole thing where they call their friends and said: are you gonna go to the polls you now? Are we I'm gonna go together on our block, Woodhull Woodhull try to do is what he's already tried to do, be successful time and time again is- is to blur what
says the next day with, with a sort of you, know, incomprehensible and coherent, walk back and then then hit. It hid with another presupposition. Half then said my people who know me know what I think, what I mean you know I believe that that right doesn't ensure him now, but the problem with that is that that is very helpful for people who want to support him when they get into arguments with other people where they could table. He didn't say that he said the other thing rightly so That's that's helpful to an already decided person or to an already enthusiastic person. It is not helpful to the person you need to drag themselves out of bed to go to the polling place before work and that's where his pride it's gonna, be I'm not now talking about her problem, which be very similar where who is, although I still think that for debt France, when push comes to shove in its October, they are going to be
frightened of Trump. Then republicans are gonna, be frightened of Hilary. That's Hilary is the wildly disliked on the right, but is she a terrifying prospect? I'm not sure she is a terrifying prospect and trump will be. The very least you can say about the Democrats machine is that they will. You know who they are able to take Mitt Romney and make him a terrified prospect in our trump. Is like you know, Trump like a give me in this in this regard and they'll have, and they already have a history of being able to get unenthusiastic people to the polls and publicans don't have that much history of getting unenthusiastic people to the polls, in fact. There's all this evidence of republican cradling of supported the final days, Georgia, you Bush lost three or four million votes in the last week, simply because of news of a drunk driving conviction and nineteen. Seventy six, Twenty five years,
five years before he was running for office four million people by by some calculations, stayed home and basically through the election to through the three election into the into the hanging, Chad phase, and we think about that. You know Republicans are often an enthusiastic about going to the poles dull that forty percent, you know double you. W Bush got thirty eight percent, the Mccain that forty five percent- it's not like they're just read to go so he'll have people at a reverend to go, but that's not the ordinary republican voter who still will have to have some reason to get out of bed not that I wanted to stress everybody. I've heard that politically depressed by that, by the way that is just But how it is you know, geopolitics, it's bad little lion, it that's that's life, but damn.
I am depressed about this death rate news that came out this morning letter deep enough, the overall national death rate for the first time, really in twenty five years, as is her has is gonna, has gone down. Meaning that either Innovations are slowing down or that are you know, addiction problem is going up or that you know a heart rate. The heart disease is becoming a factor again, but you now talk about talk about the bit of information that suggested nation in decline. If your life expectancy rate declines, that is terrifying watch this like the other shoe into the need. The first thing to worry about was the birth rate and, and that out you know that that had been in steep decline. Now that never deathray, rises. You know, that's, like fear, was those. Those are the answers,
Well, yes, I had been alone among the West some countries in the western democracies and that its birth rate was basically a replacement. Whereas almost every day in western Europe is now you know under replacement, are below. Italy is like one point, two people for every two people, which means that you know things go the way. It goes up, be half a size. It was twenty. Fifty Europe's numbers always fishy because a lot of those numbers that show that they have a baby for other they lay with the eighty five your life and, secondly, do not include emigrants so yeah, there's something fishy about that. It's just a very, very disheartening. Of news, and it's like you know we have often, despite the
ACT, our healthcare systems of disaster and everything is terrible and all that it's not as though people in America can't give health coverage. They can't go to emergency rooms, they can't get a doctor. Everybody has access to medical care and over the counter, medications and stuff like that, and the questions are people just killing themselves. I don't mean killing themselves actually like grow recycling themselves. I mean obey killing themselves with you now poor choices, bad diet, lack of exercise and bear and dump killing themselves through Guenaud chaos and heart sickness based on brusque on hand, lives that are blasted, not working, and and to serve. You know to be conservative about it killing themselves through the virtue of removing themselves from these institute cultural institutions that have worked too sustained people's well being for so long, such as families, DA mayor marriage, raise her down church community,
and whatnot. There's an astonishing will detail. Us is really only about a lead, so it doesn't doesn't count, but there is tea tale. In a rare, really good piece by vocs some guy, some lunatic made a database out of the New York Times announcements over the last thirty years and all the good data in them, which of course really is a wildly self selected population of people were but the number of people who being married by friends, whom you know are or by the Universal Life Ministry, for the purpose is now quickly approaching the number who were married By- the clergyman. That's amazing. Now the next thing there's there's there's like five years from now. The convergence will be total. We were, he will be as likely if you are the sort of person who will be in a New York Times, wedding announcement to Iver my friend as we married by judge or a clergyman, then the follow up it has to them look at which marriages last longer
Well, that's impossible! You know you can't get that. That's that's! Of course the great joke about marriage and Restate my why it's always been very difficult to extrapolate from it, because you know who gets married. You have no idea who gets divorced. Every marriage is a recorded acts and divide. Mrs, are not doubt: don't exist to serve so you all you know, is that one year x, number people get married and you can serve add up how many people get divorced and that's where we had the fifty percent worse rate, but it never gibes closely because if you get married four times and divorced four times and therefore would show up at, whereas the people who never get divorced never show up in those numbers to strengthen their data, track the couples. Right, I mean, there's been a declining. The interesting thing is while there has been an overall decline in the marriage rate there.
It has been a significant decline in the divorce rate, which means when people get married, they stay Mary. The problem is the people never get married and that's a problem not be as marriage is so wonderful in those wonderful thing on earth, but because all of Positive things are core correlate with marriage putting health but no health health almost slow, particularly for men that that there is at there is an astonishing correlation between in early between male early death and lack of marriage or living alone and no one knows why there's also through there's a serve. The nagging theory, which is that it's of being in a marriage means at someone says, take your pills or Donnie dad or you know, go get some rest. Size, or something like that, runs if you're living alone, no one's bothering you and you just you- eat the whole pizza. Then you have a box of donors and that's what I would do if I were living alone.
And have when I lived alone. I did a lot of that in fact well to item this is all anecdotal, so might as well just submit this one has high today to the extent that its relevant is. There was a pretty interesting piece, I think it was in the times. It's a peace that I've read probably a hundred times now. Were it profiles, the the the young man, the young millennium man who's in, did into society after undergraduate, receiving an undergraduate degree and is utterly lost. He can't provide for himself. He cannot live on his own. He cannot provide for the person. For whom dating and as a result, he's in suspended animation? He doesn't feel like he's inadequate member of society and he can't figure out how to Toto advance, in fact, individual wine too. I'm talking about in this most recent peace. On this subject, I read a hundred times problem was unable to want to be the breadwinner for his in his relationship. His his female companion was paying the bills and
Relationship fell apart as a result of his own sense of inadequacy that, to the extended measure, is a real problem is a real impediment for young men in my generation coming up and able to know, leave them said always twelve. Now I know is thirty two. Thirty four excuse me when Winthrop thirty, four descent. Last we discuss this. You were thirty to thirty for with ass. It went on her old son, one on the way, animal organ, and I feel very much like a productive member of society. But that wasn't the case when I was thirty. When I was thirty, things were difficult. And I had to get another reasonably reductive. Member of society you are, you are you are you are Leggum at risk- maternity is thirty years old can be a kind of a bubble of a member of productive society for people and in who go to liberal arts colleges and pursue their dreams as it were
It is not easy out there for these individuals, maybe their expectations are setting in in an unrealistic fashion. I think that's probably true, but at the same time there is, its are alienation and a lack of productivity, and, let's not forget the other big piece of social- dear, that's comma recently, that about more young men living with their parents and within with the spouse right yeah, so that yet so. If you're under thirty, you are more likely be living at home with your parents, then, being married, although you are, you are that doesn't include living alone, which I think out distances, but right, Hurlbut right, but still but an emphasis- and this is new and me Missus brand new and its rights of doubt horrifies on the one hand, horrifies, and on the other hand it speaks to a certain under a certain economic self understanding, which is to say it.
For thirty years old and you don't have regular employment, it's insane to try to get married in building start building a family. I mean there's the cart before the horse thing right. So The cart before the horse was basically, there was a pause your life, when you had to get married, have sex or- or you know you if you had sex, you got the girl became pregnant. You got me under those conditions and you at that was the spur you were like was sink or swim were thrown into the pool. We had to do something to support your family and get by, and there were the smell, It was an ideal situation. There was a lot of disruption lot of domestic violence and a lot of unhappy horrible couples being made and all that, but that was once So now, all of that is divorced from everything else right. You can have sex without getting married. You can have sex of multiple partners without getting married. Women don't have to rely on men for financial support
and you have the situation in which these men and twenties. Living slightly superfluous lives in which nothing is in which they expect very with themselves and very little, is expected of the man we're living in an economy that is not. Generating the kind of work that can help them build the Spectre. Allow them build a kind of self respect that will provide the spur, that sinking. We're swim for that that that dead, that's thinking or swimming, did in the real world long before, I think any of us, we're a quarter century on now from Dan Quail, admonishing Candice Bergen in Murphy, Brown, fur, glorifying single motherhood and glorifying financial independence from men. Among women and the roads. The results of that are obviously positive, because we have a more productive society, but they are also
then alienating sense of of young men, and men who are drifting in society and not just here I mean that's. The other thing is way, though. Those great mistake that we make is looking at this and seeing this. As an american trend. This is eight. This is a global trend. It has to do with the nature of the of the of the new economy in the twenty first century, in which you now, basically until until the middle of the twentieth century, China means that there is going to be a generation of fifty two hundred million men who will never find wives surplus male population, for whom there is no occupation. There is no future, ran a lot of people who are a burden on the welfare state. What is it an authoritarian state do with it? a lot to do. There was a lot for them to do without skills, and there is increasingly less and less for them to do when there's all these
horrible stories all over the world. The chinese Zena. The fact that the one child policy in China means that there is going to be a generation of fifty two hundred million men who will never find wives a surplus male population for whom there is no occupation. There is no future ran along people who are a burden on the welfare state. What is it in authority reinstate? Do with a surplus male population to the job of the early? Nobody knows, in fact, turn to your commentary magazine your June issue of commentary. If you have physical issue or go to commentary magazine that common red, Damn Blumenthal, industry, three ways we get China and its neighbours wrong, which flashes this out, everyone sitting ran thinking. China is the future. China is not the future. China is facing a ache Conjure ease of social problems, the likes of which would make any clear if you, if you understood the nature of them, your hair would say,
and if you were working in the chinese government, were not just a kind of ideological, communist or kleptocratic. Things are very bad at their of their bad. In Europe, thereby everywhere, this working crisis is a worldwide crisis, but all of this has made me think of one happy fact, but tee pregnancy has been declining, there you go, and that is and that's the other things are all these social workers crime continues to decline. Right I mean, I know we're now talking about the Ferguson effect of ITALY steer where you no cops or maybe now kind of pulling back and so play. Some cities are bad shape and all that, but you know that stork all the things that would have obsess day, podcast like this you may be seven- are things that we never talk about. Oddly enough, whenever about, were now talk about the ox cart crisis or the other opiates prices. But we know tat my crack we're not talking about cocaine, we're not talking about you, know, children being born addicted, we're not talk,
about two thousand murders a year. Twenty two hundred murders in New York City when us there are all sorts of which was by the way, despite eight hundred Mercier was still the fourteenth had fourteenth highest murder rate in the country that trade, two hundred absolute murders, but like Washington, which had six hundred but has a tenth of the population, was much more dangerous than theirs two things we talk about the Soviet Union, the new All of that you knows her like that through the threat of global thermonuclear war and as we talk about all. This is important to remember that the law asked fifty years have seen the greatest leap out of poverty for more a billion and a half people in the world. This is this is the best time to be alive on the planet earth ever and the problem is that some of the burdens- costs of that rise elsewhere,
following on the United States, and you know which benefited in the Post war period from being the only powerful, totally industrialized economy. Without that had not been destroyed, world war two, so some of these white male problems that we're talking about or in underclass problems are all that are the result of a kind of net transfer of wealth. Out of them, it states elsewhere, but org. It's organic. It's not like it happen because they're they're there we know deflating their current it's because it happened because they are now building prob modern institutions and ways of living, including in places like Africa, where thirty years ago, If expectancy afferent, some countries was still in the thirties and but now, of course, the the lunacy, is that both major american parties are now doing
comes up against the thing that that raise the global growth global global pour out of poverty, which is free trade freedom, capitalism that ever regret projecting have become contract right, have become. Somebody made a point. I forget who and stealing it, and I can't credit I heard about that there have been many republic republican and credit presidential candidates who have been against trade. There have been no presidents who have been against rate. It isn't. Possible to be against trade with Europe when you are present and that in the nineteenth century, There were plenty Rather, I gotta get there the cut off in the Post war period because I mean put it this way, you're Donald Trump, you become president you're a deal maker right. That's what you do like. If you are, president you'd only thinks he is a deal maker were We have to deal with this issue with our market. We have to deal with we're. The with access to our market and access to other people's markets and losing access to our market as an incentive for people to change their behaviour elsewhere has been in
unbelievably powerful and potent thing museum, look you can you, you can change your country's future by getting sister market. If you start following these rules as promulgated by the World Bank and the I am ass, you can get into the global young gets her get into the global economy in the benefits are immeasurably quick. The astonishing thing you look at her, the south of the south asian miracle. I mean it was less Then a generation win in Taiwan in South Korea went from have went from per capita comes around two hundred dollars a year. Do about fifteen thousand dollars a year and the cost benefit analysis doesn't make any sense. Anybody would look at us If even saying I obviously you look at the tire tariff that the president imposed on asian economies, no tire manufacturing explode in the United States. Tyres got more expensive. That was the extent of the public. Tire tariff Bethlehem, steel is never coming back.
Everyone who is the light ass well known, and by the way we also have these real world examples of what happens when you don't do this like right. Now I mentioned at the beginning, Venezuela is a country in full scale, economic collapse. In some kind of weird state of nature that we haven't really ever seen before. Why? Because it spent fifteen years under a manage socialist regime that was being floated by high oil prices and oil prices collapse. The regime is still in place and now no one has money to buy aspirin and their rights Ashley milk. I mean you know in this is that this is a part of this country, with a very large enormous oil reserves and and all that had happened was for gas prices to fall under forty dollars for the entirely states horse and ass. There are bred riots, their people being lynched in the streets in order to achieve some sort of catharsis run and that's being justified
by people watching these lunches, unwilling. Another credit has to get their jollies off here on the wiser gonna turn on us and thou. Meanwhile, you know we ve open to Cuba, summarily everybody. If you want, you can go travel, go take a nice trip, so you see what it's like to not have lived through the twentieth century. So is that fun is our longest podcast so far. You know why, because we're just in such a good mood and there's so much. I want to talk about, remember everybody that commentary magazine founded in nineteen forty five America, as most distinguished monthly of political, intellectual and cultural affairs. Our mission promoters, and greatness, moreover, already great doesn't need to be again defend the western. Its institutions represent the best that has been thought and said in writing an argument at the highest level and stand the bulwark against an anti Semitism and for the jewish state. Please join
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Transcript generated on 2020-02-27.