Welcome to the Commentary magazine podcast today's Monday October, twenty six Twenty eighteen, I'm John pout hordes. The editor of Commentary magazine the seventy, some of your old monthly of intellectual analysis, pull they'll, probably and cultural tourism from conservative per SE David enjoys join us. A commentary magazine that com- or we give you a few free reads asking Describe ninety ninety five for a digital subscription. Twenty there, maybe five for an all access restrictions, including our beautiful monthly magazine in your mailbox eleven times a year. With me. As always senior editor, a green wild, high Abe John

associated no Rossman high Noah Hygiene, Senor, rather Sarber Maria, I saw a legit site, Oh, we got a very Peculiarly timed ready Gee crisis coming up from Twill America is five times thousand people marching from Nelson the door in Honduras, intimate to go back five hundred miles from the can border. There was a talk last week by Trump and others that may be. All of this was being paid for by left wing elements like George Soros in order to create a crisis in the United States having more properly one could think that maybe this crisis was engineer I trump himself in order to give him a and anti immigration boost in

two weeks before the November met terms, can anybody thinking about this caravan now twenty five hundred miles away See it as anything but a an election positive for Trump and the Republicans. No, it's as if I was before it is exactly. It is like the B b human embodiment of immigration, Hoss worst nightmare its wits. What vague it's? What the destructive That's, what an immigration not thinks happens with our borders and migrants that doesn't actually happening there in the real world, but now, suddenly there being proved. You know oppression or something. I agree was Abe. I think the only people are the only voters. One could see this playing positively to our deeply deeply blue voters in you don't place like message.

It's in the city, where we're sitting or Massachusetts, I don't think America there are. The horizon has greater Boston. Do you not think it broke cambric you can't remember that Psycho Urania suffer replying Brooklyn. That, though, we should stress whether this is not a probably a political acts. They do this. Apparently, this organisation does this twice a year, and they did this in April of the sound familiar to use, because we ve been here before doing this and it doesn't seem like they really care about. Political impending? They want to make a political statement, they want to affect political change and they are doing so in a way that is

extremely reckless, putting lives a danger, but they're not doing this, I think to advance democratic republican prospects are one where the other, you know they're. Just there there, an issue advocacy group that do this sort of a hostile and reckless fashion did. This is the wing of the of the global left. It added believes that borders and national sovereignty as such are illegitimate. This is sort of the Amy Goodman left is the type of democracy now Chomsky, honest, adding. This is the kind of the left that you're talking about and they ve been doing it for some time the organisation is called published on frontier of people without borders can like doctors without borders and unity in eat prior administration, mainly the Obama administration, has reacted similarly, meaning, it is never said, ok come on in the only reason to sing becoming a flashpoint on a larger scale than ever before this year. First, then, I think it was in April or March, and now again is because of

and because it that the the broad left is so energize, then so frankly, hysterical about certain things that you know, everything that happens becomes a global and certainly national story. In this case I, but I do I mean I'm wondering who will be the Democrats, who make a mistake and jump in front of this and say yes, Trump is cruel. You know when it will it become Allah, Harris Willoughby. Corey Booker will be any of em. I meant to say also that Donald Trump is reacting excessively to this, in order to emphasise the political impact on him. The notion that we should shut down America's two thousand long mile border, because this, whereby an elite I with the U S, mill, may come within within striking distance of it in two weeks or so if they were to walk all night long and without stopping to eat or sleep or anything like that is an x of reaction designed to elicit a political response from voters. Ok will a couple a thing so, basically, since twenty fifteen there has been a surge in

legal and illegal efforts to emigrate to the United States from Central America. For reasons having to do with the clock Civil society in Honduras, him in Guatemala, in El Salvador Ruiz roving gang as well as well that a yell though I don't think anybody we're going elsewhere. Nicaragua experiencing Nicaragua, southern Sudan. Basically, there has been a Maybe you know, I think it's like. A hundred thousand people have been trying to cross. The border illegal way out of the families of the family separation, all that stuff and its taxing our system. as it stands, which is why Obama had a border crisis and twenty fourteen that contribute into the world lookin wave and twenty fourteen this senatorial wave

you know all of a sudden. It turned out that there was this. Sir. There were these camps, these open air camps in Texas Sediments set up to deal with the overflow the one difference you have here with Trump, and you know, of course there was the terrible imprisoning or whatever you might call it set forcible separation. Children from from parents earlier this year, which is, knowing strategy in order to create a bub up a punitive reality that we keep people from crossing the border and you know created. Political firestorm trump claim that he didn't want any part of this, and this is all the fault all that bad This is just a tailor made. You know unless you are, if somebody who believes that there should be no control of borders

and I am unaware of anybody- accept people from the far left outside the electoral system, who would even make such an argument- and I'm talking here is an immigration dove of a pretty high order an extremely libertarian economic types, maybe yeah, but right, but while fair enough, but I'm you know, even immigration doves would think that you need to wait. Wait online sign documents and I'll come in with a stamp piece of paper. Particularly if you're coming in, I was part of a gigantic flash mob that is moving in next year. Play toward the border which one of the things about this flash mob movie next week or the border is. This is the easiest thing to deter? You could possibly imagine it's the individual crossings to know My two hundred mile EL border, where you have individuals finding places where they can for the Rio and

How are you gonna pay? You gonna stop that, but you know Seven thousand people are coming on mass together. That's not that hard and the mexican government twenty five, or do they have to traverse twenty five hundred miles Excellent territory is not happy to have them, soil. So they are there to be a a vis. Who will aid in the battle to create this borderless were, to somehow essentially become martyrs to the lack of vile woke understanding that nationhood and borders, or are we they're. Just so. Pesetas per se in some form. Imperialism and oppressive, what they want. They want people to get hurt. They want public health, crises and the images that we ve already seen of children collapsing from lack of of water exhaustion, and then God, you know forbid. They reached the boy

and create some sort of a crisis, and that's not gonna happen, but this is what I believe they want is to create some sort of border crisis in which a merry authorities are forced to respond forcefully and created inside a literal, actual martyrs right. So to get to the political effect, We have interesting stuff going on why pull that I think we mean, further we need more polling to help under bird, its findings, but this gas or bombshell and b c Wall Street Journal Paul. That shows superb rating. At an all time, high of forty seven percent, the generic ballot, meaning we would you vote for Democratic Republic em a shrinking, in democratic, manage till that seven percent and according to them all, which is this is a little trick, has the the

number of people responding in these in these sub groupings in these polls is so small that the margin of error is crazy supposedly in the real battle grounds that will decide the House of Representatives supposedly there is no democratic advantage that it's pretty much a jump ball in these districts based on appalling and there, for we have no idea. What's gonna happen in in two weeks The pole also found, however, that some of the reasons for trumps, possibly you know, serve like rising power. Ratings. The economy is the number one issue. Thirty three percent of the economy is an abomination. Of course the economy is roaring or close to warring with unbelievably low unemployment, aunt, em growth over three percent, all that immigration showed up in this pole at

the highest number I've seen that ever, I think, as a matter of key interest. That's twenty two percent. So the question is: who were those were what do they mean when one of those two percent. The pole mean when they say immigration is the number one issue for them today. I think they mean that immigration is one issue for them in the trompe indirection. Well, this is a very its trump in pole. Donald Trump job approve, rain rise at an all time high the number Lucy Aztec Republicans very say it. We say there is about four points behind Democrats. Look like sixty to seventy two percent, total, this pole was very pro republican and these simple explanation: there is it's: it's got a lot more republicans in their them or republican leaning voters rather than the traditional well, I said was that tells you weren't we either. So there are two ways of reading that right. A lot more about against either their lot. Republicans, because since they, The pole last month thereof

the Republicans, which is what they are saying, and we can talk about that- the minute why there would be more Republicans now than there were a month ago, secondly, that their model of the electorate is off and that the way being that they are doing to try to figure out where the Poles number should be is off that they are putting too much credence to the notion that Republicans are enthusiastic to vote and that they are there Were sort of their modelling and electorate that is more republican, then it will be. Election day and that the other pollsters who are finding a greater advantage for Democrats, are closer to the mark now here, the problem. We have no idea what this electorate, meaning the midterm electorate, is going to look like if it looks like the classic midterm electorates of twenty ten and twenty fourteen Democrats are in big trouble. Democrats are, unlike

we molly are, they almost is almost impossible to win the Senate, but they are they are either even money to worse to take the house, which only requires them to win twenty three seats net they're in big trouble. If the electorate is the same electric as two thousand and ten or two thousand and fourteen But they re really believe it's gotta be the same electorate we have had to, of massive democratic organizing. We ve had money: small donor money donations to Democrats of US tat we ve never seen before. We have them enthusiasm having been at the highest range that has ever been bridge pretty much since the middle of twenty seventeen. Yet adjusted to highlight this kind of a funky pull this embassy Wall Street Journal Pull, but since we're talking about it, they had demo

seventy two percent likely to turn out and Republicans at sixty. Percent. By contrast, in the same pole, in October of twenty fourteen Democrat enthusiasm, was just forty, seven percent, whereas republicans, who swept a lot bases that you were engaged the tune of fifty nine percent was real, it just generally allotted to an end when importing and and when all these numbers are ridiculous because but I could have seventy two percent turnout the term election from them. Rats or sixty nine percent turnout from publicans. That's ridiculous, mid term turn out if you're lucky is forty percent overall and in and in the Nevertheless, presidential race, we bear declared cleared fifty percent of the elect. You're a period. But this does suggest that there is more interest in this matter, and that is for digital mid term, and you can expect to see that reflected in the total number of voters. What will there's more interest, but not. The document of.

We're gonna have to. Thirdly, Electra turning out in the mid term we did by the way yet Democrats would would could would crush it Because the story of the last man terms has been that when there is relatively low turn out Republicans are more motivates have been more motivated, the Paul's there there they they tend to vote more self, describe Republicans and self described the crowds vote more readily and more often, if Denmark, we have managed to revolutionize the electorate and if the turn out as much higher it is going to. If a Democrat so but not not not to these numbers, if in fact, that people are telling That was what this means about the viability of the validity of the pole. If we ever between of whatever tooth its turn out model

for something that is, you know if their lucky they'll be forty two percent, and I also think, given the climate and the lead activism of the left and Democrats these days, I think it's more likely that democratic pulled Democrats are arse overwhelm over predicting their turn out. Then I'm Republicans, don't you think, I don't know that there have been first of all there not predicting so the pole, products based on its findings. What that what they are saying is that they have never seen their. They have never seen their people this. This, like I'm, going to drag myself over in a broken glass and hot coals to go to the polls, what what we know, however, is that the classic democratic electorate, the ones that vote democratic, districts like they are very

geographically concentrated Democrats right. There are concentrated in the end, the coasts and in the cities of the cities and the plane, and not much else. And the districts of course are spread out across the United States. So the question is, if you have a district with a Trump one by five to fifteen point. Can the Surgeon Democratic Museum overtake the natural republican age in these districts and flip some of these seats, particularly in the suburbs- and you know I do Take take this for what it's worth. I have a terrible track record in presidential elections and I have a really good track record. Midterms ages. Don't believe that republicans are gonna, that that this isn't going to be a democratic ear, how everyone on how we want to call them here are just if it isn't that everything we know about politics is turned on its head. Like the up,

party is more energized. There's there's let you know he can never, count on the people that you don't lie, not turning out just cause. You dont like them and you think they're stupid. That's what damage that's consular got themselves burned by with Republican. Nevertheless, thirty thirty five years, a Republican should not feel are concerned, I feel confident that as nobody- they now knows- Democrats that an end things look feel better than they did it four months ago for them that things gonna go their way, and there is also that really interesting finding that I don't remember, numbers. But people were more likely to say that the party- that's who, through that that's likely to change how things are done in Washington, is the Republicans and then, as christian solstice Anderson pointed out on Twitter? That's a very the interesting dynamic worthy the party in power already in power is considered to be change party by by the electorate.

For good reason: Rikers Trump is it is. It is a revolutionary figure and realistically whatever you want to call him, but he wants smash down you know exists, sting domino orthodoxies orthodoxy so like like the orthodoxy that their apparently gonna say this week of pulling out of the short range, the eye and, after a short range nuclear missiles Treaty with Russia for me, a nuclear intermediate locally forces, I think, the mid range missiles. Nineteen. Eighty seven treaty, with the Soviet Union civilian forces no more, but we have huge to deal with the former Soviet with Russia under successive administrations in- and you know I have to add of- I don't know how much the eye enough treaty or trumps decision to pull out of it will play too

mid term crowd. You know the voters did I do I don't take any what he's gonna care about the intermediary of words. You know as an independent people are on the table, but I will say it's the type of thing where I think Trump is a change agent for good, because the eye Enough treaty forward for a decade or more has been applicant bugbear. Why? Because, although its in place, we know we have satellite images, we have intelligence that shows that Russia has been blatantly violating it in terms of you know their deployments and activities, and yet we ve hued to it for what we

then I dont know for a kind of comedy and from an initial unit, Bolton used to grumble about it still grumbles about a John Kyle. All these people, a trunk, comes along and like blood of whatever have anything. There's something healthy about Edward said: there's a sit: there have been various things we ve cheated as sort of sacred hypocrisy, their sacred fiction and to being The hell with them, the, U Un Human Rights Council and you know it's terror- oh terrible- that ninety percent of its resolutions are directed against Israel, but it will gain something from being at the table, screw it up. We're gonna leave UNESCO. Yes, it's terrible is that an anti semitic organization, Bolivar I'd like we have to be a part of well to be fair Trump was not the first president to pull out of UNESCO or out of the EU. I would write Dr Jerusalem. Here's an error rates like solemn

commitment drew some undivided capital of Israel, but no one ever acts on a trump. Does the IRAN deal the M in your eye? Defection to the Iranian are good faith sort of intermediaries, heart of those a great thing about these fictions that constitute the international order- is that they allow us to pretend, as though we don't have to do certain things. If we say that our media arrange nuclear missiles are now station able in Europe we have to station in Armenia, arranged nuclear missiles in Europe. That's just the way of things. If we're gonna pretenders, though, grab isn't. Basically a missile launching pad in it and the hub of corruption and in central and Eastern Europe? Then we to treat it as such and we have to station forces therein, there's a whole host of political dysfunction that accompanies that. So, while I agree with you, but the eye enough was basically a non functional treat essentially saying that it's gone means we have to take a variety of actions that we never really wanted to take right. Well,

so. The whole point is that yet Trump is disruptor, and so, if what you want is disruption and the look once disruption, then, in that sense, all of this stuff plays to his strength, which is that he's strong rather do his work, his selling signature selling point, as is that he has strength and there This is a worse than he is strong and that's that's that's the way of it. I think it's all salutary not pewter treaties that other people are viewing too, and that is a good thing assuming that it is isn't just that's it like so then, why, like you, can't just it I'll pull out of something and then. Every than our days I will go in there just go. Go go often play golf, Edmunds? I mean like I'm, not ices, a change in policy that requires a whole set of.

But I would like to add to that. I am very sympathetic to the to smash. They got the up the international order, diplomatic processes for which, by the way, the process seems to be the end And not the means to an end for quite a wearable, but but but but an Not replacing them with anything is fine with me, but that also means that you have to be a really extroverted hegemonic power to fill up all these vacuums, your creating and Trump doesn't have any interest in doing that. Well, let's talk about one situation quickly in which you can see the downside of the Trump approach, which is, which is the last to the crisis of the last two weeks with Saudi Arabia, because we have a demonstration is thrown out all the play book. The diplomatic a book in relation to the Middle EAST and has tromp and jarred commissioner, and a cup of other people handling this relationship single handed and something catastrophic, happened- and we don't know how we don't have,

ambassador and Saudi Arabia we don't have an ambassador in Turkey, we don't have a diplomatic presence in these places that could have read, signals and we don't know what the CIA and what our intelligence agencies are finding, as they have also been disempowered. And we don't know, for example, whether in conversations with Jared, Kirshner or Trump or whatever, whether the our principal, how had been salmon said some thing and was, he was responded to in a way that provided an inadvertent signal that there be a massive crisis. If something like this happened, because we don't have people Lotta downsides with the diplomatic corps and with no diplomacy, First State Department, first, foreign service, first approach to american foreign policy but the one thing that you get there is institutional and historical knowledge. So you know there

these seven words. You can't say that the Saudis, because they mean something different. To the Saudis than they do to us, we know that there is you're not supposed to say. You know that there is why that you should watch, and none of that is happening and so that the downside of the throne Everything out just start anew with you know my idiot southern law. The real estate broker either the real dead? Guy figuring out a hundred? You know our relations with the most complicated relationship we have in the world may well be. The relationship with Saudi Arabia has been complicated relationship for seventy five years or more and has gotten more and more complicated as time has gone by and the idea that you can just do this with a thirty six year old schmuck is preposterous site greeted the downsides. Might my only point was that did it makes Instead, voters see right Trump as a party.

But I agree I agree with that. I would put saying I'm all I'm only saying that, while we celebrated the icon, smashing you know, about five minutes. I think there's a moment at which you want to say you know. There's a reason that you know even George George W Bush was obviously disruptor right of any upset the. Africa. Every already whenever says he was so reckless you. So imprudent was a reckless. But you know he would have consulted somebody who spoke arabic for you know, or you know he would have had somebody on the phone. It's really thin line between being you know, of an inherent to this cult of disruption and also just being a nihilist, I mean it's at a certain point you're, just an anti institutional is to the point where you don't have any attachment to anything. That's constructive road, while in that that is a big part of the.

Revolutionary wing of the trumpets Wing of the Republican Party or the conservative movement is, you know everything has been. We burn all down and started new, because everything is so corrupted and one of the Red one of the things that causes such emotions. Can be a lack of adequate sleep so I want to talk to you guys about our friends at Casper Mattress. This brand. That makes expertly design. Products to help you get your best rest one. Neither the time the experts have Casper work tirelessly to make equality, sleeps, Eversleigh, cradles your natural geometry and all right places. After all, you spend one third of your life sleep and say you should be comfortable the original. Asked. Mantras combines multiples of word of memory, foams where equality sleep surface with our amounts of thinking bounce, will design, helps asleep cool and regulate your body temperature throughout the night, for now offers to other mattresses, the wave and the essential the way

features a patent bending prune support system to mirror the natural shape of your body. Does it not sort of Mari. It really does, and this this week I had our wave mattress all to myself, because we're trends getting our son to his own room. We renovated our apartment, so he has his own bedroom and my wife toe is still sleeping with him he's in his cotton she's on the floor, and I got them at the the wave mattress all to myself, which meant I got five nights of nine hundred and ten hours sleep and then finally, caught up from a really long sort of building sleep deficit, because I've been sleeping out of my wave mattress, I've been traveling and Israel, very little sleep. So when I came back it's all caught up now and I have the wave all to myself for the next few days and there's your wife sleeping on the floor. Sleeping on the floor. We both come from patriarchal It's a beautiful, the essential

has a streamlined design and oppressive, won't give me up at night all cast for products designed developed and assembled in the? U S: prices affordable, because Casper cuts, No man cells directly. You every Castro actresses delivered right your door in a small. How do they do its icebox plus this shipping and hassle free returns in the US and Canada plus. You can be sure of your purchase. Will Casper's one hundred night risk free sleep on trial? So here The special offer to listeners of commentary get fifty dollars to Select mattresses by visiting Casper, Dotcom, slash commentary and using my God. Commentary check out that's casper dot, com, slash commentary and use pro on COD commentary for fifty dollars off, select mattresses term. And conditions apply. All right. So I ve been talking about this. A Wall Street Journal NBC Paul, which is the best news that Republicans have had aside from some of the other pieces of news like individual polling suggesting,

possibly the race, the vat with incumbent, Mr Bowe, vulnerable republican incumbent deem Heller appeal currently holding his own two leading slightly against Congresswoman Jackie Rosen. And the race in Arizona between Christian Cinema and Martha Sally forth for Jeff Lakes, vetoes about, say, Floyd Flake, who was a fee a congressmen queens. Both Arizona, like many Jews from New York who moved were not the point do any good. Let's get off lifelike backed Jeff like very interesting debate. I watched a lot of between Cinema and the Mcsally and which mcsally looks very whiny and Sinema looked as though she had been given a shot of sodium content of these begin. It's up like Muscle, relax them could she could barely move her lips to speak

say illuminating in the sense that you were like going between somebody who just kept saying she's lying about me. She's lying Babby in the ongoing well like that, so that looks like Cinemas is, is, is, is isn't real trouble in part because of amazing opposition research. That seems to have been ten where people are digging up quotes. Radioed talk shows fifteen years ago, which he insult Arizona. American salts, stay at home moms. I dunno whatever else there's so much of it. You wonder if its day, if the operator urges amazing or she's. Just left such a blue, Traveling all because a lot of it is brutal lay they found some videotape avert a group of ten people and some conference in Texas and twenty term. Some like that. If you wanna make you of how to avoid turning your state

to Arizona here how exactly a patriot is rife crazy palm right, how it so there's a lot of good colleagues. On the other hand, she says it's a bunch of times in my favorite. Is this new one where she's just doesnt even say anything. Shrewdest says that the name of this it Arizona and then makes this like face like she just been into a lemon like job justice like disgust, yeah, it's it's interesting? The story of this election cycle by the way is utter lack of good pulling on the state level in places where Democrats are defending its almost the the pollsters internalized. This idea that twenty eighteen was gonna be a good for Democrats, so we don't have to really pull that much Missouri or Montana Indiana or Florida, and we just have a world a couple of smatterings of statewide poles in Florida is actually an exception, are starting to to pull it pretty heavily, but why we got in all the poles this year on the state. Why level for us and Contacts Texas taxes as the every quadrennial fantasy of the

of the Great democratic hope so was Wendy Davison, twenty fourteen and better work and twenty eighteen currently every pole, TED cruises up so between seven and ten nine competitive sparely, not competitor Right and remember by the way that in the primary, what was fascinating is that better works, fame and celebrity continued asked primary in which the republic, turn out exceeded the democratic turn out and there were no competitive races on their republican side was Greg. The governor running for RE election TED crews, the senator running for reelection. There was no competitive races and So you know, there is no reason frame bay. The turn out in there with the Republic of Korea was higher than democratic turn out. The idea that this was a harbinger of a huge damage. Wave that was going to sweep a liberal Democrat, not just a Democrat not like you know a gun total do you know

Adela, slain Border crossing Shootin Democrat, but you know, like a basically like Stephen call Bears Fantasy Democrat from Texas into the present. You know you could write, then you knew that human dignity, which is kind of become a conservative, mean the amount of media attention that he's gotten us very favourable, but were also now starting to see like us a post election strategy for Orourke creating this myth around him for an employment on Asia. Or maybe you can have a national political career, because, I'm gonna go anywhere in and Texas because you know that's great one thing you know about. Somebody is if he loses an election in one state, he can lose an election, I mean but the try that I've been out there is. There is clearly an effort under way to make him into a into a cultural phenomena. Why political dilemma. I dont get his charm, but

Wendy Davis, had the exact same charm has nothing to do with a very he's, an eloquent speaker off the cuff, so in that sense you could say that he is kind of like a bit of a marker Rubio of the left men and that he is somewhat overtime, very glib, very you know, is able you no good looking than even more useful in Galicia. Well, though, that's joke. Is there's all this like? Don't let the old white males win vote for better work, TED Crews, Barrack is a year older. At Christmas, but would you nor morgue, is older than dead grows ever you you thought is bearing, and I know you known right, just gave a boarding in and out of that, which is that I have all these little friends on Facebook, many of whom are most of whom don't live in Texas, but now there their profile pictures are beta Orourke, Do you know frames around I'll because they were all they were all a lot of those people were just

you're gonna, move to Tennessee to campaign for the Senate election of Phil Edison against. Marcia Blackburn in the open racing in Tennessee and then reticent, went and said that he would support. Red Cavanaugh Supreme Court nomination and that just bro there are, then all of those deposits for the apartments for the month of October, in which these carpet, where they come down to Tennessee and show those show those rednecks had a vote? They just work he just didn't. Have it in many more. There is like an actual movement under way on some quarters: the left to get people from states New Jersey in New York, in California, to move out into the hinterland and bring their politics with them, and I mean

joke on twitter that you could call it the state income tax and it's just basically what is happening. Forcing people in the on the coast to move out to places furniture generally in a portable riding habit and everyone who did that was a republican, and then they got that. That's what happened to the Reagan Democrats right, we're theses. They began the Republicans of the South West and South Korea. They get to the sort of risk tat you can actually living in these places there. It did happen. Inhabitant, Vermont Vermont. We know the most Rock Ribbed Republican staved in the country famously said, as goes mainly sobers remark is over the two states that voted for ALF Lamb. I think in nineteen thirty six, the eighties. It was when our credit, That's right in Vermont is now, of course, hippies pseudo hippy dippy central. So who did that? Who do I be lame for Ben Jerry, Chair and well, we live, we lived through the story of West Virginia, I mean it was in the vote that would Carl rose book on two thousand was contains one

that then I remember witches. Some younger staffer brought up something information regarding West Virginia to him, and he said if you spend one more minute on West Virginia you're fired his West Virginia as democratic state. It is not going for a Republican, national election and was of roads lead us to the safer clad in two thousand. That was really a carpet bag and sake as the governor of the state them was Rockefeller J Rockefeller, for four fer a lotta years and then he was succeeded by Jo Mansion, who is exactly the kind of democratic Republican likes best publican democratic vote for brought Cavenaugh. So we should finally get to thee enduring quality of the cabinet fact right. That's what the polling! Wall Street Journal, and we see news pulse suggest is that

the Kavanaugh. Sects been messing three weeks since Kavanaugh swearing in or two way I can with Matt boots six months a year. I don't know how long ago was it feels like was about five years ago, but the the effect appears to be enduring in some sense having awakened or the sleeping giant of the republican electorate to the nest the voting in the mid terms right. So I want to my theory, about what the Cavanaugh effect is and then have you guys respond to, which is that it is this one of the reasons that is enduring and has had the effect that it has had that has a so shocked Democrats and we like that is that cabin represented the first time since twenty sixteen in which Republican they republican, elect It was asked to support and cheer for and and and go to the barricades for someone whose name was not trump so that broadening out? The

conservative message beyond the cult of personality around the White House and saying something back: as liberals are ganging up on and attacking and trying to story. Somebody whose name was not trump. Gave renewed energy to the right because the right had because try. Can defend himself and their time defending trump even people like him, because it's like I don't know what. Next you have to defend him for Cavanaugh. Once it was decided, the cabinet was being hard won, hard done and that things were being made up about, in particular, the gang rape charge, and all that this was something I could do without any sense of hesitancy and say there doing again. This is the politics of character assassination? They don't like him for his politics and they're trying to destroy him as a human being because of their hatred.

The ology. His ideologies are radiology already we're on his side and we and as that's over and then so that's my theory. You everyone's nodding, so tat I may be oh, this is nodding, doesn't come across on. I think that I think the inherent in just the case had something with it to do with it, of course, as well that the railroading itself is bad, regardless of which, who is the president, who nominated Cavanaugh I would also say I mean I think I've heard republican activists say this. Take you for what you will. I feel like me, John and Normal strong, this agreement as soon as this out of my mouth, but that this sense that not only Mcconnell standing strong but also they could stay, could see

You know a President George Bush or a president, even perhaps Rubio backing down and and withdrawing the nomination, and that there is something again champion about the fact that he was there. He stood with him. True, he waited for the poles to come out and so forth. Still it was, you know a show of a new, combative republican Party that doesn't bow to like the left's being like, but women but rave anybody says now. What did there's nothing justified about this Vienna? We have zero corroboration, I'm not pulling away the nomination. I've heard from republican activists, people, people on the hill warrant, necessarily even trumpets, but would say that this has happened because the president was is seen as strong as was not gonna back down to the left's essentially of blackmail with zero evidence. But I largely agree with that, and also I do believe that these nominees, probably would have imposed by a more

the public in a more cautious republican early in the process. However, once at about em a week in her. So there was no pulling this nomination, because at that point you are forcing the nomination into the lame duck at no point which anybody would ever confirm. Anybody has would be an illegitimate confirmation and then the Democrats would have essentially succeeded in there and then their mission. So you were, you really had a very small window which point a Republican would have had to buckle beyond a certain, point it was inevitable that up this process within a play out as a played out. My theory is that now We did Donald Trump sort of receipt into the background over the course of this week, allowing even from skeptical republicans to get on board because they saw the faces they saw were the status quo ante Republicans in the Senate, but also because this was a cultural fight which is what energizes everybody, but a cultural. Five legislative implications, meaning that actual votes were actually being counted from actual legislators who are doing something to affirm. A change in the balance of power on this particular cultural issues. So when we talk about flag protest,

Earth and what have you in and care of coming to the border. We're talking about let's phenomena that is not We want to see any sort of legislative remedy here we have a real, legitimate, concrete evidence of something that legislators could. It could attack and where it having a republican and a seat mattered, and I I think, on the cultural front, something that happened was after a cabinet was confirmed. Coming from the left Democrats exactly, but from from the left. Suddenly there are all these deck declarations of war on parts of the population is vicious. I blame you white women, the present problem with men with males it's, like you know, did it was almost This concerted effort to reject huge parts of the country and anger from a critical mass of really influential people right, Christine Rosen, heavily piece in the November commentary called Cavanaugh and the assault on men that goes into this in

we detail and says basically that when you have essentially one political party giving in to the idea that the employees That idea that Cavanaugh stand in for the hierarchy of a veto. Of a gender, and of a type right, a catholic White Guy Catholic White Guy and that by by those lights was guilty until proven innocent that You are right equally revolutionizing the other side by the charge itself. There is all this like how dared say you know what if you're the mother, what if you're the parent of a son and you know you're. Looking at your son, thirty years from now being accused of having done something with no evidence, no for that that will destroy his life, think that's fair and there was an enormous amount of scoffing of this idea, and yet there

our image billions of people in this country, sons and with teenage sons were probably worried about exactly that, and this was given voice. By this phenomenon except for those like very narrow circle of women who tend to publish ipads every other week in the near, I'm right title like my son. The rape is to be held it struck me. You know how I struggle with his May. That's more like the Washington Post to be fair. Let's to be fair to the New York Times earlier times. Would do this like my polly amorous relationship, and why my has yes exactly so I ll others. It I mean. There's a read here. The Republicans can talk on and I think they really should it's very hard ball but there is an element within the left coalition that really does believe that it's ok, if you,

where to turn justice black stones of provision. I have had an that. Maybe you you get ten people when one person is guilty that, actually Jared Polis, convert congressmen from Colorado early on in this idea, culture was saying that purging again man who may be falsely accused from his campuses when I caught up in these Start chamber tribunals is unnecessary social remedy to what is something that we ve otherwise turned our backs on for a generation. So if you boiled down it's that yet I mean innocent men need to get hurt too, but listen there is a very big phenomenon here that is not going away, which is that their? What I like to think of as the double counting, fact, so this is a great election for Democrats. It's amazing Democrats, women Arbs, are stimulated against Rubagub Party, as never before,

when Cavanaugh is gonna stimulate women against rumbling party. This still, but. If a woman is a Republican, it becomes a Democrat. Let's just say that individual woman, only does that once that's You count once. If she did it in twenty seventeen Kavanaugh. Is it she's not going to get two bites at the same apple in twenty seventeen and two thousand and eighteen? That's one vote change its not to its, not three. Its five and if you polarize the electorate by gender One thing that is missing from this calculus witches, whom I got this: so terrible with Republicans that day, lost women is that, if its power arise that way. It's also because men are polarized in the opposite direction. Therefore, it's not that you gain all these women and the male vote remains sort of

like fifty fifty and so damn everyone is this going to the left side of the ledger, you pull rise by gender, just as if you polarized by race. It's now like there aren't people on the other side of the equation, who were being counter. Polarized and they were sweet girl Paul there we ve been talking about all morning- as the gender gap at twenty four. Points for women, but twenty five but twenty points for men in the other direction, So a lot of that is offset, so just as the if you can identity politics by noting that you now blacks and smacks always our armoury nos seventy to eighty to ninety percent democratic, but why aids are now fifty five forty five or something like that republican or fifty six forty for something like that that offsetting effect,

and what's more more than offsetting, because you may have all these minorities going in lopsided fashion, but you a plurality or an absolute majority. Seventy two: seventy four percent of the electorate going Republican, so to the extent that when you buy a polarizer on your own behalf, you were counter polarizing on the other guys we have somehow you managed mystically not to count that the fact Democrats have been lying to themselves about this. The nature of this electorate those terms- because they keep counting women over over and over and over again, and you only get to count them once we get the kind of change once that's that's just basic math or so that matter emails that mass this logic, logic counting his mouth,

You know why I'm here I have said this before, and I think I take issue with it, but it's that generally. I think quite few of the lopsided victories that Democrats have seen of the Twenty seventeen in early twenty eighteen was the result less of generating democratic turn out. That's where John would argue with me, but also that of Republicans not turning out, not go into the pulse. Publicans were by and large depressed and the trouble contrary to what you hear on cable news or in partisan media outlets, and quite a few looking in the trump error were not happy with. The fact that Republicans were at each other's throats for the last eighteen months in the news publicans were unified. Then he saw some crumbs job will jump up and you saw Republicans turn out to vote. Yes, less internecine warfare and sort of what we ve seen for the last two weeks is a unified gnp, which has very little to do without them

everything to do with the opposition interesting, I will Say this one thing, which is that we were discussing for weeks during the cabinet controversy? What would be better for the job? He would have been better if Cavanaugh lost and became a martyr like Bork. And then you know you had this effect or would it be better if he won and Republicans glad on a high with a noose, in court justice. You know, and you know what is that there is nothing more exhilarating who said this was Churchill, there is nothing more exhilarating than being shot out without result, right that that public and left the cabinet, startlingly after the horror of those weeks on a high and the high has not dissipated so

Oh, I was a they gonna win because they're gonna be depressed if they lose, and there was other talk him here that our member will, if they lose, it would have been because a Republican dealt the final blow without one reason, but in general people the winner and not a loser. Going going, before going before the electorate having lost a huge battle was going to be devastating for republicans having won a huge battle. That was good for Republicans, and I think this also wants to know as point in his peace, the fatal conceit, which is that when people lose these days, they turn away Politics Maidens executive rights. Winning will keep you engaged. So this random see this. This cuts is working for us, which is why we should all live in fear of the prospect of Republicans doing really well at the poles who were not only object you're, because what you because you're saying, abject you're his you think there might be violence, it would follow any other way of looking at it is the faithless currency would be. There's nothing we can do now. The violence is proud to lead

Just push verb marrow on a laws and then we can all just gets done. Or something you know some will turn out now and they will get high, but others, just as just as Democrats were have been a danger really triumphal is for many months about their chances in in November and are now, I think, in a state of panic and shock and horror republican conservatives should. Very wary about giving overconfident about November six that generic ballot is still tilted toward Democrats. Demo, I still have the enthusiasm, Madge and the, our party- does worse than them in party in election- and the United States, generally speaking, does not like unified government House and Senate presidency, but unemployment at three point: seven, industrial wages are going up in a way that they haven't for a long time. I who knows who know that this is a

I'm just saying like don't don't get cocky, don't start. Counting, don't start double counting your votes. If you're on the right, great kid don't get. Cocky gig kid calculating bigger. I am glad you did this now, because, if you, if we talked about this earlier, you would have been throwing Harrison Ford in front of me and I would have been cracking up now, not propulsive at all. My loving anyway Ford nor Rossman neighbouring, I said Green Walden, I've brunwalde for the first time in weeks, everyone You're welcome and the sort of Amorium John passwords keep the calibre.