Today's podcast asks who benefits from the controversy surrounding the human caravan making its way through Central America to the U.S. border: Is this good for anyone besides Donald Trump? The news is going his way these days, as are the polls—is this all indicative of real change in the GOP direction, or just a false dawn before a midterm wipeout? Give a listen.
This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
Welcome to the Commentary magazine podcast today's Monday October, twenty six
Twenty eighteen, I'm John pout hordes. The editor of Commentary magazine the seventy, some of your old monthly of intellectual analysis, pull
they'll, probably and cultural tourism from conservative per SE
David enjoys join us. A commentary magazine that com- or we give you a few free reads asking
Describe ninety ninety five for a digital subscription.
Twenty there, maybe five for an all access restrictions, including our beautiful monthly magazine in your mailbox eleven times a year.
With me. As always
senior editor, a green wild, high Abe John
associated no Rossman high Noah Hygiene,
Senor, rather Sarber Maria, I saw a legit site,
Oh, we got a very
Peculiarly timed ready
Gee crisis coming up from
Twill America is five times
thousand people marching from Nelson
the door in Honduras, intimate
to go back
five hundred miles from the
can border. There was
a talk last week by Trump and others that may be. All of this was being paid for by
left wing elements like George Soros in order to create a crisis in the United States having more properly one could think that maybe this crisis was engineer
I trump himself in order to give him a and anti immigration boost in
two weeks before the November met terms, can anybody thinking about this caravan now twenty five hundred miles away
See it as anything but a an election
positive for Trump and the Republicans. No, it's as if I was
before it is exactly. It is like the B b
human embodiment of immigration, Hoss worst nightmare its wits. What vague it's? What the destructive
That's, what an immigration not thinks happens with our borders and migrants that doesn't actually happening there in the real world, but now, suddenly there being proved. You know
oppression or something. I agree
was Abe. I think the only people are the only voters. One could see this playing positively to our deeply deeply blue voters in you don't place like message.
It's in the city, where we're sitting or Massachusetts,
I don't think America there are. The horizon has greater Boston. Do you not think it broke cambric
you can't remember that Psycho Urania suffer replying Brooklyn. That, though, we should stress
whether this is not a probably a political acts. They do this.
Apparently, this organisation does this twice a year, and they did this in April of the sound familiar to use, because we ve been here before doing this and it doesn't seem like they really care about.
Political impending? They want to make a political statement, they want to affect political change and they are doing so in a way that is
extremely reckless, putting lives a danger, but they're not doing this, I think to advance democratic republican prospects are one where the other, you know they're. Just there there, an issue advocacy group that do this sort of a hostile and reckless fashion did. This is the wing of the of the global left. It added believes that borders and national sovereignty as such are illegitimate. This is sort of the Amy Goodman left is the type of democracy now Chomsky, honest, adding. This is the kind of the left that you're talking about and they ve been doing it for some time the organisation is called published on frontier of people without borders can like doctors without borders and unity in eat prior administration, mainly the Obama administration, has reacted similarly, meaning, it is never said, ok come on in the only reason to sing becoming a flashpoint on a larger scale than ever before this year. First, then, I think it was in April or March, and now again is because of
and because it that the the broad left is so energize, then so frankly, hysterical about certain things that you know, everything that happens becomes a global and certainly national story. In this case I, but I do I mean I'm wondering who will be the Democrats, who make a mistake and jump in front of this and say yes, Trump is cruel. You know when it will it become Allah, Harris Willoughby.
Corey Booker will be any of em. I meant to say also that Donald Trump is reacting excessively to this, in order to emphasise the political impact on him. The notion that we should shut down America's two thousand long mile border, because this, whereby an elite I with the U S, mill, may come within within striking distance of it in two weeks or so if they were to walk all night long and without stopping to eat or sleep or anything like that is an x
of reaction designed to elicit a political response from voters. Ok will a couple a thing so, basically, since twenty fifteen there has been a surge in
legal and illegal efforts to emigrate to the United States from Central America.
For reasons having to do with the clock
Civil society in Honduras, him in Guatemala, in El Salvador Ruiz roving gang as well as well that a yell though I don't think anybody
we're going elsewhere. Nicaragua experiencing Nicaragua, southern Sudan. Basically, there has been a
Maybe you know, I think it's like. A hundred thousand people have been trying to cross.
The border illegal way out of the families of the family separation, all that stuff and its
taxing our system.
as it stands, which is why Obama had a border crisis and twenty fourteen that contribute
into the world
lookin wave and twenty fourteen this senatorial wave
you know all of a sudden. It turned out that there was this. Sir. There were these camps, these open air camps in Texas Sediments set up to deal with the overflow
the one difference you have here with Trump, and you know, of course there was the terrible
imprisoning or whatever you might call it set forcible separation. Children from from
parents earlier this year, which is,
knowing strategy in order to create a bub up a punitive reality that we keep people from crossing the border and you know created.
Political firestorm trump claim that he didn't want any part of this, and this is all the fault all that bad
This is just
a tailor made. You know
unless you are, if somebody who believes that there should be no control of borders
and I am unaware of anybody- accept people from the far left outside
the electoral system, who would even
make such an argument- and I'm talking here is an immigration dove of a pretty high order
an extremely libertarian economic types, maybe yeah, but right, but while fair enough, but I'm
you know, even immigration doves would think that you need to wait. Wait online sign documents and
I'll come in with a stamp piece of paper.
Particularly if you're coming in, I was part of a gigantic flash mob that is moving in next year.
Play toward the border which one of the things about this flash mob movie next week or the border is. This is the easiest thing to deter? You could possibly imagine it's the individual crossings to know
My two hundred mile
EL border, where you have individuals finding places where they can for the Rio and
How are you gonna pay? You gonna stop that, but you know
Seven thousand people are coming on mass together. That's not that hard and the mexican government twenty five, or do they have to traverse twenty five hundred miles
Excellent territory is not happy to have them,
soil. So they are there to be a a vis.
Who will aid in the battle to create this borderless were,
to somehow essentially become martyrs to the lack of vile woke
understanding that nationhood and borders, or are we
they're. Just so.
Pesetas per se in some form. Imperialism and oppressive,
what they want. They want people to get hurt. They want public health,
crises and the images that we ve already seen of children collapsing from lack of
of water exhaustion, and then God, you know forbid. They reached the boy
and create some sort of a crisis, and that's not gonna happen, but this is what I believe they want is to create some sort of border crisis in which a merry
authorities are forced to respond forcefully and created
inside a literal, actual martyrs right. So to get to the political effect,
We have interesting stuff going on why
pull that I think we mean,
further
we need more polling to help under
bird, its findings, but this gas or bombshell and b c
Wall Street Journal Paul. That shows
superb rating. At an all time, high of forty seven percent, the
generic ballot, meaning we would you vote for Democratic Republic em a shrinking,
in democratic, manage till that seven percent and according to them
all, which is this is a little trick, has the the
number of people responding in these in these sub groupings in these polls is so small that the margin of error is crazy
supposedly in the real battle grounds that will decide the House of Representatives
supposedly there is no democratic advantage that it's pretty much a jump ball in these districts based on appalling and there,
for we have no idea. What's gonna happen in in two weeks
The pole also found, however, that some of the reasons for trumps, possibly you know, serve like rising power.
Ratings. The economy is the number one issue. Thirty three percent of the economy is an abomination. Of course the economy is roaring or close to warring with unbelievably low unemployment,
aunt, em growth over three percent, all that
immigration showed up in this pole at
the highest number I've seen that ever, I think, as a matter of key interest. That's twenty two percent.
So the question is: who were those were
what do they mean when one of those
two percent. The pole mean when they say immigration is the number one issue for them today. I think
they mean that immigration is one issue for them in the trompe indirection.
Well, this is a very its trump in pole. Donald Trump job approve,
rain rise at an all time high the number
Lucy Aztec Republicans very say it. We say there is about four points behind Democrats. Look like sixty to seventy two percent,
total, this pole
was very pro republican and these simple explanation: there is it's: it's got a lot more republicans in their them or republican leaning voters
rather than the traditional well, I said was that tells you weren't we either. So there are two ways of reading that right. A lot more about
against either their lot.
Republicans, because since they,
The pole last month thereof
the Republicans, which is what they are saying, and we can talk about that- the minute why there would be more Republicans now than there were a month ago,
secondly, that their model of the electorate is off and that the way
being that they are doing to try to figure out where the Poles number should be is off that they are putting too much
credence to the notion that Republicans are enthusiastic to vote and that they are there
Were sort of their modelling and electorate that is more republican, then it will be.
Election day and that the other pollsters who are finding a greater advantage for Democrats,
are closer to the mark now here,
the problem. We have no idea what this electorate, meaning the midterm electorate, is going to look like if it looks like
the classic midterm electorates of twenty ten and twenty fourteen Democrats are in big trouble. Democrats are, unlike
we molly are, they almost is almost impossible to win the Senate, but they are
they are either even money to worse to take the
house, which only requires them to win twenty three seats net they're in big trouble. If the electorate is the same electric as two thousand and ten or two thousand and fourteen
But they re really believe it's gotta be the same electorate we have had to,
of massive democratic organizing. We ve had
money: small donor money donations to Democrats of US
tat we ve never seen before. We have them
enthusiasm having been at the highest range that has ever been bridge
pretty much since the middle of twenty seventeen. Yet
adjusted to highlight this kind of a funky pull this embassy Wall Street Journal Pull, but since we're talking about it, they had demo
seventy two percent likely to turn out and Republicans at sixty.
Percent. By contrast, in the same pole, in October of twenty fourteen Democrat
enthusiasm, was just forty, seven percent, whereas republicans, who swept a lot
bases that you were engaged
the tune of fifty nine percent was real,
it just generally allotted to an end when importing and
and when all these numbers are ridiculous because
but I could have seventy two percent turnout
the term election from them.
Rats or sixty nine percent turnout from publicans. That's ridiculous, mid term turn out if you're lucky is forty percent overall and in and in the
Nevertheless, presidential race, we bear
declared cleared fifty percent of the elect.
You're a period. But this does suggest that there is more interest in this matter, and that is for digital mid term, and you can expect to see that reflected in the total number of voters. What will there's more interest, but not.
The document of.
We're gonna have to. Thirdly, Electra turning out in the mid term
we did by the way yet Democrats would would could would crush it
Because the story of the last man terms has been that when there is relatively low turn out Republicans
are more motivates have been more motivated, the Paul's there there they they tend to vote more self, describe Republicans and self described
the crowds vote more readily and more often, if Denmark,
we have managed to revolutionize the electorate and
if the turn out as much higher it is going to.
If a Democrat so but not not not to these numbers,
if in fact, that people are telling
That was what this means about the viability of the validity of the pole. If we ever
between of whatever tooth
its turn out model
for something that is, you know if their lucky they'll be forty two percent, and I also think, given the climate and the lead activism of the left and Democrats these days, I think it's more likely that democratic pulled Democrats are arse overwhelm over predicting their turn out. Then I'm Republicans, don't you think,
I don't know that there have been first of all there not predicting so the pole,
products based on its findings. What that
what they are saying is that they have never seen their. They have never seen their people this. This, like I'm, going to drag myself over in a broken glass and hot coals to go to the polls,
what what we know, however, is that the classic democratic electorate, the ones that vote democratic,
districts like they are very
geographically concentrated Democrats right. There are concentrated
in the end, the coasts and in the cities of the cities and the plane, and not much else.
And the districts of course are spread out across the United States. So the question is, if you have a district with a Trump one by five to fifteen point.
Can the Surgeon Democratic Museum overtake the natural republican
age in these districts and flip some of these seats, particularly in the suburbs- and you know I do
Take take this for what it's worth. I have a terrible track record in presidential elections and I have a really good track record. Midterms ages.
Don't believe that republicans are gonna, that that this isn't going to be a democratic ear, how everyone on how we want to call them
here are just if it isn't that everything we know about politics is turned on its head. Like the up,
party is more energized. There's there's let you know he can never,
count on the people that you don't lie, not turning out just cause. You dont like them and you think they're stupid. That's what damage
that's consular got themselves burned by with Republican. Nevertheless, thirty thirty five years, a Republican should not feel are concerned,
I feel confident that
as nobody- they now knows- Democrats that an end things look feel better than they did it
four months ago for them that things
gonna go their way, and there is also that really interesting finding that I don't remember,
numbers. But people were more likely to say that the party- that's who, through that that's likely to change how things are done in Washington, is the Republicans and then,
as christian solstice Anderson pointed out on Twitter? That's a very
the interesting dynamic worthy the party in power already
in power is considered to be change party by by the electorate.
For good reason: Rikers Trump is it is. It is a revolutionary figure and realistically whatever you want to call him, but he wants
smash down you know exists,
sting domino orthodoxies orthodoxy so like like the orthodoxy that their apparently gonna say
this week of pulling out of the short range, the eye and, after a short range nuclear missiles Treaty with Russia
for me, a nuclear intermediate locally forces, I think,
the mid range missiles. Nineteen. Eighty seven treaty,
with the Soviet Union civilian forces no more, but we have huge to deal with the former Soviet with Russia under successive administrations in- and you know I have to add of- I don't know how much the eye enough treaty or trumps decision to pull out of it will play too
mid term crowd. You know the voters did I do I don't take any what he's gonna care about the intermediary of words. You know as an independent people are on the table, but I will say it's the type of thing where I think Trump is a change agent for good, because the eye Enough treaty forward for a decade or more has been
applicant bugbear. Why? Because, although its in place, we know we have satellite images, we have intelligence that shows that Russia has been blatantly violating it in terms of you know their deployments and activities, and yet we ve hued to it for what we
then I dont know for a kind of comedy and from an initial unit, Bolton used to grumble about it still grumbles about a John Kyle. All these people, a trunk, comes along and like blood of whatever have anything. There's something healthy about Edward said: there's a sit: there have been various things we ve cheated as sort of sacred hypocrisy, their sacred fiction and to being
The hell with them, the, U Un Human Rights Council and you know it's terror-
oh terrible- that ninety percent of its resolutions are directed against Israel, but it will gain something from being at the table, screw it up. We're gonna leave UNESCO. Yes, it's terrible is that an anti semitic organization, Bolivar
I'd like we have to be a part of well to be fair Trump was not the first president to pull out of UNESCO or out of the EU. I would write Dr Jerusalem. Here's an error rates like solemn
commitment drew some undivided capital of Israel, but no one ever acts on a trump. Does the IRAN deal the M in your eye? Defection to the Iranian are good faith sort of intermediaries, heart of those a great thing about these fictions
that constitute the international order- is that they allow us to pretend, as though we don't have to do certain things.
If we say that our media arrange nuclear missiles are now station able in Europe we have to station in Armenia, arranged nuclear missiles in Europe. That's just the way of things. If we're gonna pretenders, though, grab isn't. Basically a missile
launching pad in it and the hub of corruption and in central and Eastern Europe? Then we
to treat it as such and we have to station forces therein, there's a whole host of political dysfunction that accompanies that. So, while I agree with you, but the eye enough was basically a non functional treat
essentially saying that it's gone means we have to take a variety of actions that we never really wanted to take right. Well,
so. The whole point is that yet Trump is disruptor, and so, if what you want is disruption and the
look once disruption, then, in that sense, all of this stuff plays to his
strength, which is that he's strong rather do his work,
his selling signature selling point, as is that he has strength and there
This is a worse than he is strong and that's that's that's the way of it.
I think it's all salutary not pewter treaties that other people are viewing too, and that is a good thing
assuming that it is isn't just that's it like
so then, why, like you, can't just it I'll pull out of something and then.
Every than our days I will go in there just go. Go go often play golf,
Edmunds? I mean like I'm, not ices, a change in policy that requires a whole set of.
But I would like to add to that. I am very sympathetic to the to smash. They got the up the international order, diplomatic processes for which, by the way, the process seems to be the end
And not the means to an end for quite a wearable, but but but but an
Not replacing them with anything is fine with me, but that also means that you have to be a really extroverted hegemonic power to fill up all these vacuums, your creating and Trump doesn't have any interest in doing that. Well, let's talk about one situation quickly in which you can see
the downside of the Trump approach, which is, which is the last to the crisis of the last two weeks with Saudi Arabia,
because we have a demonstration is thrown out all the play book. The diplomatic
a book in relation to the Middle EAST and has tromp and jarred commissioner, and a cup of other people handling
this relationship single handed and something catastrophic,
happened- and we don't know how we don't have,
ambassador and Saudi Arabia we don't have an ambassador in Turkey, we don't have
a diplomatic presence in these places that could have read,
signals and we don't know what the CIA and what our intelligence agencies are finding, as they have also been disempowered.
And we don't know, for example, whether in conversations with Jared, Kirshner or Trump or whatever, whether the
our principal, how had been salmon said some
thing and was, he was responded to in a way that provided
an inadvertent signal that there
be a massive crisis. If something like this happened, because we don't have people
Lotta downsides with the diplomatic corps and with no diplomacy, First State Department, first, foreign service, first approach to american foreign policy
but the one thing that you get there is
institutional and historical knowledge. So you know there
these seven words. You can't say that the Saudis, because they mean something different.
To the Saudis than they do to us, we know that there is
you're not supposed to say. You know that there is why that you should watch, and none of that is happening and so that the downside of the throne
Everything out just start anew with you know my idiot southern law. The real estate
broker either the real
dead? Guy figuring out a hundred? You know our relations with the most complicated relationship we have in the world may well be. The relationship with Saudi Arabia has been
complicated relationship for
seventy five years or more and has gotten more and more complicated as time has gone by and the idea that you can just do
this with a thirty six year old schmuck is preposterous site
greeted the downsides. Might my only point was that did it makes
Instead, voters see right Trump as a party.
But I agree I agree with that. I would put saying I'm all I'm only saying that, while we
celebrated the icon, smashing you know,
about five minutes. I think there's a moment at which you want to say you know.
There's a reason that you know even George George W Bush was obviously disruptor right of any upset the.
Africa. Every already whenever says he was so reckless you. So imprudent was a reckless.
But you know he would have consulted somebody who spoke arabic
for you know,
or you know he would have had somebody on the phone. It's really thin line between being you know, of an inherent to this cult of disruption and also just being a nihilist, I mean it's at a certain point
you're, just an anti institutional is to the point where you don't have any attachment to anything. That's constructive road, while in that
that is a big part of the.
Revolutionary wing of the trumpets Wing of the Republican Party or the conservative movement is, you know everything has been. We burn all down and started new, because everything is so corrupted and
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All right. So I ve been talking about this. A Wall Street Journal NBC Paul, which is the best news that Republicans have had aside from some of the other pieces of news like individual polling suggesting,
possibly the race, the vat with incumbent,
Mr Bowe,
vulnerable republican incumbent deem Heller appeal
currently holding his own two leading slightly against Congresswoman Jackie Rosen.
And the race in Arizona between Christian Cinema and Martha Sally forth for Jeff Lakes, vetoes about, say, Floyd Flake, who was a fee
a congressmen queens.
Both Arizona, like many Jews from New York who moved were not the point
do any good. Let's get off lifelike backed Jeff like
very interesting debate. I watched a lot of between Cinema and the Mcsally and which mcsally looks very whiny and Sinema looked as though she had been given a shot of sodium content of these begin. It's up like
Muscle, relax them could she could barely move her lips to speak
say illuminating in the sense that you were like going between somebody who just kept saying she's lying about me. She's lying Babby in the ongoing
well like that, so that
looks like Cinemas is, is, is, is isn't real trouble in part because of amazing opposition research. That seems to have been ten where people are digging up quotes. Radioed talk shows
fifteen years ago, which he insult Arizona.
American salts,
stay at home moms. I dunno whatever else
there's so much of it. You wonder if its day, if the operator
urges amazing or she's. Just left such a blue,
Traveling all because a lot of it is brutal lay they found some videotape avert a group of ten people and some conference in Texas and twenty term. Some like that. If you wanna make you of how to avoid turning your state
to Arizona here how exactly a patriot is rife crazy palm right, how it so there's a lot of good colleagues. On the other hand, she says it's a bunch of times in my favorite. Is this new one where she's just
doesnt even say anything. Shrewdest says that the name of this
it Arizona and then makes this like face like she just been into a lemon like job justice like disgust, yeah, it's
it's interesting? The story of this election cycle by the way is utter lack of good pulling on the state level in places where Democrats are defending its almost
the the pollsters internalized. This idea that twenty eighteen was gonna be a good
for Democrats, so we don't have to really pull that much Missouri or Montana
Indiana or Florida, and we just have a world a couple of smatterings of statewide poles in Florida is actually an exception, are starting to to pull it pretty heavily, but why
we got in all the poles this year on the state. Why level for us and Contacts Texas taxes
as the every quadrennial fantasy of the
of the Great democratic hope so was Wendy Davison, twenty fourteen and better work and twenty eighteen
currently every pole, TED cruises up so
between seven and ten nine competitive sparely, not competitor
Right and remember by the way that in the primary, what was fascinating is that better
works, fame and celebrity continued asked
primary in which the republic,
turn out
exceeded the democratic turn out and there were no competitive races on their republican side was Greg.
The governor running for RE election TED crews, the senator running for reelection. There was no competitive races and
So you know, there is no reason frame bay. The turn out in there with the Republic of Korea was higher than democratic turn out. The idea that this was a harbinger of a huge damage.
Wave that was going to sweep
a liberal Democrat, not just a Democrat not like you know a gun total do you know
Adela, slain Border
crossing Shootin Democrat, but you know, like a
basically like
Stephen call Bears Fantasy Democrat from Texas
into the present. You know you could write, then you knew that human dignity, which is kind of become a conservative, mean the amount of media attention that he's gotten us very favourable, but were also now starting to see like us
a post election strategy for Orourke
creating this myth around him for an employment on Asia.
Or maybe you can have a national political career, because,
I'm gonna go anywhere in and Texas
because you know that's great one thing you know about. Somebody is if he loses an election in one state, he can lose an election, I mean
but the try that I've been out there is. There is clearly an effort under way to make him into a into a cultural phenomena. Why
political dilemma. I dont get his charm, but
Wendy Davis, had the exact same charm has nothing to do with a very he's, an eloquent speaker off the cuff,
so in that sense you could say that he is kind of like a bit of a marker Rubio of the left men and that he is somewhat
overtime, very glib, very you know, is able you no good
looking than even more useful in Galicia. Well, though, that's
joke. Is there's all this like? Don't let the old white males win vote for better work, TED Crews, Barrack is a year older. At Christmas,
but would you nor morgue, is older than dead grows ever you you thought is bearing, and I know you known right, just gave a boarding in and out of that, which is that I have all these little friends on Facebook, many of whom are most of whom don't live in Texas, but now there their profile pictures are beta Orourke,
Do you know frames around I'll because they were all they were all a lot of those people were just
you're gonna, move to Tennessee to campaign for the Senate election of Phil Edison against.
Marcia Blackburn in the open racing in Tennessee and then reticent, went and said that he would support.
Red Cavanaugh Supreme Court nomination and that just bro
there are, then all of those deposits for the apartments for the month of
October, in which these carpet, where they come down to Tennessee and show those
show those rednecks had a vote? They just work
he just didn't. Have it in many more. There is like an actual movement under way on some quarters: the left to get people from states
New Jersey in New York, in California, to move out into the hinterland and bring their politics with them, and I mean
joke on twitter that you could call it the state income tax and it's just basically what is happening. Forcing people in the on the coast to move out to places furniture generally in a
portable riding habit and everyone who did that was a republican, and then they got that. That's what happened to the Reagan Democrats right, we're theses. They began the Republicans of the South West and South Korea. They get to the sort of risk
tat you can actually living in these places there.
It did happen. Inhabitant, Vermont Vermont. We know the most Rock Ribbed Republican staved in the country
famously said, as goes mainly sobers remark is over the two states that voted for ALF Lamb. I think in nineteen thirty six,
the eighties. It was when our credit,
That's right in Vermont is now, of course, hippies pseudo hippy dippy central. So who did that? Who do I be lame for
Ben Jerry,
Chair and well, we live, we lived through the story of West Virginia, I mean it was in the vote that would Carl rose
book on two thousand was contains one
that then I remember witches. Some younger staffer brought up
something information regarding West Virginia to him, and he said if you spend one more minute on West Virginia you're fired his West Virginia as democratic state. It is not going for a Republican,
national election and was of roads lead us to the safer clad in two thousand.
That was really a carpet bag and sake as the governor of the state them was Rockefeller J Rockefeller, for
four fer a lotta years and then he was succeeded by Jo Mansion, who is
exactly the kind of democratic Republican likes best publican democratic vote for
brought Cavenaugh. So we should finally get to thee
enduring quality of the cabinet fact right. That's what the polling!
Wall Street Journal, and we see news pulse suggest is that
the Kavanaugh. Sects been messing three weeks since Kavanaugh swearing in or two way I can with Matt boots six months a year. I don't know how long ago was it feels like was about five years ago,
but the the effect appears to be enduring in some sense having awakened or the sleeping giant of the republican electorate to the nest
the voting in the mid terms right. So
I want to my theory, about what the Cavanaugh effect is and then have you guys respond to, which is that it is this one of the reasons that is enduring and has had the effect that it has had
that has a so shocked Democrats and we like that is that
cabin represented the first time since twenty sixteen in which Republican they republican, elect
It was asked to support
and cheer for and and and go to the barricades for someone whose name was not trump so that
broadening out? The
conservative message beyond the cult of personality around the White House and saying something back:
as liberals are ganging up on and attacking and trying to
story. Somebody whose name was not trump.
Gave renewed energy to the right because the right had because try.
Can defend himself and their time
defending trump even
people like him, because it's like I don't know what. Next you have to defend him for
Cavanaugh. Once it was decided, the cabinet was being hard won, hard done and that
things were being made up about, in particular, the gang rape charge, and all that this was something I could do without any
sense of hesitancy and say there doing
again. This is the politics of
character assassination? They don't like him for his politics and they're trying to destroy him as a human being because of their hatred.
The ology. His ideologies are radiology already we're
on his side and we and
as that's over and then so that's my theory.
You everyone's nodding, so tat I may be oh, this is nodding, doesn't come across on. I think that I think the inherent in just the case had something with it to do with it, of course, as well that
the railroading itself is bad, regardless of which, who is the president, who nominated Cavanaugh
I would also say I mean I think I've heard republican activists say this. Take you for what you will. I feel like me, John and Normal strong,
this agreement as soon as this out of my mouth, but that this sense that not only Mcconnell standing strong but also they could stay, could see
You know a President George Bush or a president, even perhaps Rubio backing down and and withdrawing the nomination, and that there is something again champion about the fact that he was there. He stood with him. True, he waited for the poles to come out and so forth.
Still it was, you know a show of a new, combative republican Party that doesn't bow to like the left's being like, but women but rave anybody says now. What did there's nothing justified about this Vienna? We have zero corroboration, I'm not pulling away the nomination. I've heard
from republican activists, people, people on the hill warrant, necessarily even trumpets, but would say that this has happened because the president was is seen as strong as was not gonna back down to the left's essentially of
blackmail with zero evidence. But I largely agree with that, and also I do believe that these nominees,
probably would have imposed by a more
the public in a more cautious republican early in the process. However, once
at about em a week in her. So there was no pulling this nomination, because at that point you are forcing the nomination into the lame duck at no point which anybody would ever confirm. Anybody has would be an illegitimate confirmation and then the Democrats would have essentially succeeded in there and then their mission. So you were, you really had a very small window which point a Republican would have had to buckle beyond a certain,
point it was inevitable that up this process within a play out as a played out. My theory is that now
We did Donald Trump sort of receipt into the background over the course of this week, allowing even from skeptical republicans to get on board because they saw the faces they saw were the status quo ante Republicans in the Senate, but also because this was a cultural fight
which is what energizes everybody, but a cultural. Five
legislative implications, meaning that actual votes
were actually being counted from actual legislators who are doing something to affirm.
A change in the balance of power on this
particular cultural issues. So when we talk about flag protest,
Earth and what have you in and care of
coming to the border. We're talking about
let's phenomena that is not
We want to see any sort of legislative remedy here we have a real, legitimate, concrete evidence of something that legislators could. It could attack and where it having a republican and a seat mattered, and I I think, on the cultural front,
something that happened was after a cabinet was confirmed.
Coming from the left Democrats exactly, but from from the left. Suddenly there are all these deck declarations of war on parts of the population is vicious.
I blame you white women,
the present problem with men with males it's, like you know, did it was almost
This concerted effort to reject huge parts of the country and anger from a critical mass of really influential people right, Christine Rosen, heavily piece in the November commentary called Cavanaugh
and the assault on men that goes into this in
we detail and says basically that when you have essentially one political party giving in to the idea that the employees
That idea that
Cavanaugh
stand in for
the hierarchy of a veto.
Of a gender, and
of a type right, a catholic
White Guy Catholic White Guy and that by
by those lights was guilty until proven innocent that
You are right
equally revolutionizing the other side by
the charge itself. There is all this like how dared
say you know what
if you're the mother, what if you're the parent of a son
and you know you're. Looking at your son, thirty years from now being accused of having done something with no evidence, no for that that will destroy his life,
think that's fair and there was an enormous amount of scoffing of this idea, and yet there
our image billions of people in this country,
sons and with teenage sons were probably worried about exactly that, and this
was given voice.
By this phenomenon
except for those like very narrow circle of women who tend to publish ipads every other week in the near,
I'm right title like my son. The rape is to be held
it struck me. You know how I struggle with his May. That's more like the Washington Post to be fair. Let's
to be fair to the New York Times earlier times. Would do this like my polly amorous relationship, and why my has yes exactly so I ll others. It I mean. There's a
read here. The Republicans can talk on and I think they really should it's very hard ball
but there is an element within the left coalition that really
does believe that it's ok, if you,
where to turn justice black stones of provision. I have had an that. Maybe you you get ten people when one person is guilty that,
actually Jared Polis, convert congressmen from Colorado
early on in this idea,
culture was saying that purging
again man who may be falsely accused from his campuses when I caught up in these
Start chamber tribunals is
unnecessary social remedy to what is something that we ve otherwise turned our backs on
for a generation. So if you boiled down it's that yet I mean innocent men need to get hurt too, but listen
there is a very big phenomenon here that is not going away, which is that their? What I like to think of as the double counting,
fact, so this is a great election for Democrats. It's amazing Democrats, women Arbs, are stimulated against Rubagub Party, as never before,
when Cavanaugh is gonna stimulate women against rumbling party. This still, but.
If a woman is a Republican, it becomes a Democrat. Let's just say that individual woman,
only does that once that's
You count once.
If she did it in twenty seventeen Kavanaugh. Is it she's not going to get two bites at the same apple in twenty seventeen and two thousand and eighteen? That's one vote change its not to its, not three. Its
five and if you polarize the electorate by gender
One thing that is missing from this calculus witches, whom I got this:
so terrible with Republicans that day,
lost women is that, if its power
arise that way. It's also
because men are polarized in the opposite direction.
Therefore, it's not that
you gain all these women and the male vote remains sort of
like fifty fifty and so damn everyone is this going to the left side of the ledger,
you pull rise by gender, just as if you polarized by race. It's now
like there aren't people on the other side of the equation, who were being counter. Polarized and they were
sweet girl Paul there
we ve been talking about all morning-
as the gender gap at twenty four.
Points for women, but twenty five
but twenty points for men
in the other direction,
So a lot of that is offset, so
just as the if you can
identity politics by
noting that you now blacks and smacks always our armoury nos seventy to eighty to ninety percent democratic, but why
aids are now fifty five forty five or something like that republican or fifty
six forty for something like that that
offsetting effect,
and what's more more than offsetting, because
you may have all these minorities going in lopsided fashion, but you
a plurality or an absolute majority. Seventy two: seventy four percent of the electorate going Republican, so
to the extent that when you buy a polarizer on your own behalf, you were counter polarizing on the other guys we have somehow you managed mystically not to count that the fact
Democrats have been lying to themselves about this. The nature of this electorate
those terms- because they keep counting women over
over and over and over again, and you only get to count them once
we get the kind of change once that's that's just basic math or so
that matter emails that mass this logic, logic counting his mouth,
You know why I'm here I have said this before, and I think I take issue with it, but it's that generally. I think quite
few of the lopsided victories that Democrats have seen of the
Twenty seventeen in early twenty eighteen was the result less of generating democratic turn out. That's where John would argue with me, but also that of Republicans not turning out, not go into the pulse.
Publicans were by and large depressed and the trouble
contrary to what you hear on
cable news or in partisan media outlets, and quite a few
looking in the trump error were not happy with.
The fact that Republicans were at each other's throats for the last eighteen months in the news
publicans were unified. Then he saw some crumbs job
will jump up and you saw Republicans turn out to vote. Yes,
less internecine warfare and
sort of what we ve seen for the last two weeks is a unified gnp, which has very little to do without them
everything to do with the opposition interesting, I will
Say this one thing, which is that we were discussing for weeks during the cabinet controversy? What would be better for the job? He would have been better if Cavanaugh
lost and became a martyr like Bork. And then you know you had this effect or would it be better
if he won and Republicans glad on a high with a noose,
in court justice. You know, and you know what is that there is nothing more exhilarating who said this was Churchill,
there is nothing more exhilarating than being shot out without result, right that that public and left the cabinet,
startlingly after the horror of those weeks on a high and the high has not dissipated so
Oh, I was a they gonna win because they're gonna be depressed if they lose, and there was other talk him here that our member will, if they lose, it would have been because a Republican dealt the final blow without one reason, but in general people
the winner and not a loser. Going going,
before going before the electorate having lost a huge battle was going to be devastating for republicans having won a huge battle. That was good for Republicans, and I think this also
wants to know as point in his peace, the fatal conceit, which is that when people lose these days, they turn away
Politics Maidens executive rights. Winning will keep you engaged. So this random see this. This cuts is working for us, which is why we should all live in
fear of the prospect of Republicans doing really well at the poles who were not only object you're, because what you because you're saying, abject you're his you think there might be violence, it would follow any other way of looking at it is the faithless currency would be.
There's nothing we can do now. The violence is proud to lead
Just push verb marrow
on a laws and then we can all just gets done.
Or something you know
some will turn out now and they will get high, but others, just as just as Democrats were have been a danger
really triumphal is for
many months about their chances in in November and are now, I think, in a state of panic and shock and horror republican
conservatives should.
Very wary about giving overconfident about November six that generic ballot is still tilted toward Democrats. Demo,
I still have the enthusiasm, Madge and the,
our party- does worse than them in party in election-
and the United States, generally speaking, does not like unified government House and Senate presidency, but unemployment at three point: seven,
industrial wages are going up in a way that they haven't for a long time. I who knows who know that this is a
I'm just saying like don't don't get cocky, don't start.
Counting, don't start double counting your votes. If you're on the right, great kid don't get. Cocky gig kid
calculating
bigger. I am glad you did this now, because, if you, if we talked about this earlier, you would have been throwing Harrison Ford in front of me and I would have been cracking up now, not propulsive at all. My loving
anyway Ford nor Rossman neighbouring, I said Green Walden, I've brunwalde for the first time in weeks, everyone
You're welcome and the sort of Amorium John passwords keep the calibre.
Transcript generated on 2019-12-12.