The second COMMENTARY podcast of the week features me, Noah Rothman, and Abe Greenwald digging deep into new polls—including one issued by President Trump's own pollster showing Trump with shockingly low support among Republicans as they look ahead to the 2020 primaries—and exploring the question of whether the president actually wants a border wall or just wants to keep talking about one to keep his base riled up. Give a listen.
This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
Some guy come to the commentary magazine podcast, I'm John Paul towards the editor of commentary, the seventy two year old monthly of political analysis into Sexual probity and cultural criticism from a conservative perspective join us at commentary magazine dot com. We give you a few free reads and then asked you to subscribe. One thousand nine hundred and ninety five gets you a digital. Option: twenty nine. Ninety five gets you and all access subscription, including our beautiful monthly magazine in your mailbox eleven times a year with me. As always, our senior editor greenwash hello Ape high John
and are associate editor no Rossman high Noah, I done so. We approach the dog days of August, with Congress out of Session Donald Trump wandering around the country alarm, everybody in UNESCO Convention. Circles, with his bizarre behaviour, rallies and very speeches and tweets and everybody else on his side, apparently thinking that this is all okay and were hearing stories about how general care He is taking will control. The White House is controlled paper flow into the oval office. Him staff secretary, Rob, Porter Gonna make sure that the open acts to his office and the free flow of paper that anyone can put before trumpets gonna be limited
And meanwhile, with all of this nonsense going on after Labour Day, Congress will come back and session and the actual job of governance of the United States will continue to the extent that. We have to do something to raise the debt sailing or the government money, and there is the big question of whether or not the Trump legislative agenda derailed entirely by the by the failure of healthcare reform can be brought back on track by tax reform in the leaks that are coming out about tax reform our kind of alarming or surprising or sound like they are that things are being played with at the congressional level that cannot possibly in the end, make it into law jag
and take monumental changes to the tax system. That will be done with fifty one votes in reconciliation like limiting the mortgage, seduction, remove eliminating the state local tax, deductibility of your of your state, local taxes of your federal income tax form, these are not add ideas there. Might you know they're they're, very arguable ideas, they could be very important ideas, but to do it this way with no debate and very little discussion or just get a win through, seems to me to be extremely implausible, and then you add to that. The. Trump saying in a speech speech a rally speech in Phoenix that he was going to hold. The raising of the debt sailing to ensure that Congress folded in money for the border wall, or he would let the government shut down
That also is just madness like if he wants to be the person who is given the blame for shutting the government down, as my grandmother would say, zig zag go, with God Congratulations! That is not something that you want. That is, naturally everybody wants They should want, and in the end that's another, I think a false work like empty empty threat. Noah, do you agree with me that it's an empty threat? Well, it's not like. He can declare the government shut down these the president. This isn't. This has nothing to do with him This isn't gonna, be appropriating many billions of dollars in a stand alone bill or even in the budget for a multi billion dollar boondoggle on the border and the governments not gonna, shut down. Republicans have anything to do about it and if it does shut down, it will have nothing to do with this wall. So it's all just posturing, ok, Abe. What's your view of the case
whether or not Paul Ryan and the House Republicans genuinely think that they can sort of wipe away aspects of the home mortgage deduction I mean dislike it had in a bill in a week, the major tax reform bill and ninety six, the last serious tax reform measure was debated, free a half and was a bipartisan bill took. It was incredibly difficult. The bit of Hollywood changed. You know at but what's more had also to we're consequences like yours, basically gigantic real estate recession in the South West, because we remove the mortgage interest deduction for the second for second homes anyway go, Oh me out. I think you know given, given what we seem lately. I think we can hope for for any sort of swift, swift passages of of anything given the warring factions, giving given the
beyond the ongoing attacks at all, that will be exit while everything's being discussed sooner but but to the point of about trumps shut down thread. Also, I don't think I wish we were talking about this before we got here- I don't think he he particularly care is right. I mean it's not that Is he is he's just as happy screaming about, how his agenda is being frustrated as he is sort of boasting. He's gotten anything done earlier, but right now, let's fleshless out meaning very specifically. Does it matter if Trump builds the border wall or did not matter is a promise he has to fulfil, or can he in fact, simply by get up and then saying Congress is not doing this for me, get all the political and that he needs out of the border wall without actually Emmy construct going on, we ve always been so we ve always assumed that he needed
show results and get things done, but there's a bunch of stuff we're about to talk about that suggests. Maybe that's a true and that maybe you know this- about what he represents symbolically and what is opinions represent, symbolically are more than sufficient to do the job for him politically, just as the vaporware of the idea of the wall was so effective for him in the campaign it remained vaporware remaining a proposal that is never quite fulfilled, but still like on the Vienna could happen. Could happen could happen. Maybe that sufficient Noah I think you probably are gonna go into in should go into the thirty thousand for perspective at this point, because the theory that you're out is that the wall itself is not important to supporters instead. When that to him, because it's better for him politically and more more potent for his supporters. Quickly. If it never happens, and then Donald Trump can wave the bloody tunic of the wall before his supporters and throw it into the crowd and with them into a frenzy.
And that's more politically beneficial for them, because the movement is fundamentally in a victimized movement. So I will give you there's a piece of our relations, its victim right, more than a relishes accomplish, there's an actual political fact that strengthens Europe. This case that you dismayed. So in November and December of last year after Trump One and the question was: where is the agenda? Gonna go Oh Paul Ryan and the House, Republicans working on agenda items came up with a couple of things, one of which was media, repeal bill with this two year gap in health care, so that you could pass repeal the first day right. Remember that repeal of them replace and Trump put the key Bosh on that on the grounds that I couldn't do that it would be bad, it would be politically by people would be sure and he's wonderful and wants to give
everybody healthcare. So that was that and then the second thing, which is even more interesting, is that Ryan came up with a grand, complex tax reform package that involved the above the assertion of a border adjustment tax. This is essentially a kind of tariff vats. Combination thing at the border. A hundred and sixty six nations do this where they collect, they collect a fee, basically firm, anything good that comes into the United States ghetto in the form of a border adjustment, tax and rise idea. What you could put this on and then take a bunch of other things. The other taxes off and you know, would be a big trade and it would be a a
Fulfilled it would fulfil trumps claim that he wanted to get tough on the border boob and with trade, and the other thing was it would collect sixty seventy eighty billion dollars and you could in writing a bill for this earmark twenty billion of it for the wall, so the war would be paid for the first thing. The first agenda item, maybe would be that you would push this through in. You would have this tax. Guided me would have money for the wall, and Trump could even claim that the Mexicans were paying for it, because if we think about it the idea would be the goods would come up for Mexico. There would be a border adjustment tax on goods from Mexico and car, whatever comes through them from the market or as the factories in Mexico, and that what trumpet then say yes, look well cost twenty billion
always the Mexicans with the border adjustment tax paid for the wall, like I said they would add, Trump put the key Bush on the border adjustment tax. Also, I can remember why it on a webcam or what it was about it that he didn't like about it or somebody else talked about a better. There was some claim that it would be bad for people in this Dave. I mean, I think it's a terrible idea, but I'm just saying like so he was actually handed a man oh formula of a wood. Mystical, possibility of building the wall using an innovative strategy of that fulfilled his own promises, and he said no to that, thus making it entirely plausible that in his head he doesn't care whether of wall is built around here.
I'm gonna, make any deals he's not going to sacrifice any thing to make. It happen, he's not going to put any political capital on the line to get the wall built because, of course it is an extra expenditure of billions of dollars to bill. We were preposterous, ridiculous expenditure for this totally fraudulent piece of you know I reckon you know whatever concrete. If colleagues Bihar had strategy, since this beautiful generate viewed whether at it'll have a wonderful door, yes, Biggie, Linda a golden light, which I left my lamp, so you're describing just a poem poetic, the poem a series of positive how she's apologies native s so what you're describing a microcosm is a. Every sort of outlined by Steve Pornography. Nbc news, political analysts, political historian, television, personality jacket,
trade and what he essentially says is what you say: is that don't triumphal numbers are pretty awful, but that's a kind of a bad metric to measure his support, because his support isn't based really in its achievements, because it has no achievements to speak of so it's based on Essentially with it. You know you sugary his piece on some arising at that occasion. Written to pieces are, and we see news dotcom one was on August. Twenty second one was, I was twenty. Fourth, there serve sequels to each other and are about trumps problem, the question of how on earth we read the Poles about Trump when they look so so bad, but maybe they're not bad form. The more succinct one in my opinion is why Trump, why the Trump culture, war or the com? the Trump Culture WAR and why it matters and the conclusion of a new car,
read. The whole thing is that Donald Trump provides for his supporters, a sense that they are fighting back in this culture war. So as long as there is hysterical media coverage of whom, as long as he's being fact checked as long as he is demonstrating that he's he's unbowed and will not yield to the pressure on him to act quarter, presidential then they have while they need from him, as in so far as they rationalized for themselves, that they don't need accomplishments from president and then he provides for them an avatar of their rebellion. Then that's all that there is for him and that's it- and I argued That is, a transaction voters are still transactional. This is a transaction for them. Even if it's not a legislative achievement It is a value, add, and this proposition metal,
probably diminish, yield diminishing returns and become as much of a problem for them as the affordable care was for Democrats, okay, so the theory here if it becomes a problem in the EU, after twenty. Just as the that's how you got trot, you know like every thing is what how you got trump. You know if it is a big soda complaining about food. Who does every everything is how you got trump whatever it is you don't like on the right there, liberals do is. How is how you got tromp right, so that laid this is the most sophisticated adoration of that, which is that you got trump because of every mostly give trump, because in the media and what's more you're gonna continue to get em and that every attack on him. It's like what is it that Obi WAN Kenobi line right? If you strike me down, I will be stronger than you can ever imagine. Attacking him has the effect of if you don't work,
some super here. What are those like super villains? You know it's like a few punch him. Then he absorb Zealanders, you Andrews you cut off the head and then to come back, Or you punch somebody and the force of the punch makes him stronger. He absorbs the force their sided either inside the comical a good here, oh dear. No, though this is available so. You live hit, develop, because if we had the villainy absorbs your strength and then he gets twice a strong. So time. The media says this is not normal, he's crazy he's. You know it's CNN as a panel discussion that questions as mental fitness and all of this only makes him stronger because it strengthens the support of his base and its stranded and if it continues to blind them to the weakness of their own efforts against him that they would be better served. This is the end, logical consequence. There be better served ignoring him
treating him as though, most of what he says doesn't really matter much just you know and not like screaming every time he opens his mouth, that's that would be the that would be how you would handle trump if you accepted the chromatic is here tend to think this is largely true and its also why, whenever he gets involved in some crazy imbroglio. You know, if you see these at war with whoever is at war with them India or or says something insane and offensive. After the outrage subsides. There's always this lingering sense of like me, you didn't entirely lose that cycle. You know we may baby yet you're sure he did, and the people who saying that he didn't are crazy, but air time there's a little party. It's like I didn't. I didn't Keimer he's kind himself off and these we're onto the next thing- and I think that's that's a huge part of it- is because
people, don't want to be told what to think about something and when you know what I mean. Is going to say about something you tune it out anyway. Okay, I don't agree with this and I'm, and I think that this idea that Trump has some magical power to avoid the consequences of acting like a jerk and a putz and and saying things that are, you know inappropriate and all that is. I don't think it is borne out by data. For example, there is a new J W Battleground Pole. The most interesting question in the pole is trumps ass. They asked people to agree ears or disagree with liquid trumps
behaviour is not what I expect from president. So overall, the finding was. Seventy one percent said they agree with the statement. Trumps behaviour is not what I expect from President twenty seven percent as agreed, but then you say: ok well, that's overall, ten billion per cent of Democrats are gonna, say this and no Republicans ever say you have to look at the as we say, the cross Tabs, okay, so there, among Republicans, who said that trumps. Ah, you know the trump that was not what they expect, that there are soft and hard Republicans as their called, and they saw
the hard Republicans being the ones who really support of a really like him. Ok, disagree, meaning they said Dave agreed with the trumps behaviour is not what I expected. Forty four percent agreed at fifty two percent disagreed, meaning forty four percent of trumps own hard supporters say his behaviour is not what I expect from president. The soft GNP supporters make people who vote for him or vote Jpg but are not like you know the one he his core hardest. You know, though they love him and no one who grass sixty four percent agree: the trumps behaviors now annex VI for President thirty, one percent disagree. Ok, so those are not great number.
I'm sorry like anyway, you slice of the notion that that is significantly strong support for trump when Even his most passionate supporters are willing to acknowledge that they are not they arts disappointed by his behavior. But the question is it: the care that's their assessment of it, how I did that rank as a priority when there looking at the overall. While I would submit that as about that's the wrong thing to think about at this stage because is far too early to care. What voters think that voters aren't gonna have a chance to win on Donald Trump until twenty twenty. What matters now is what party influencers thank people who have a choice,
and to mobilise that sort of sentiment. Capitalism. That sort of sentiment are emboldened by that sentiment to make make a move against him to stab at the king, and people are starting to think about that now. Ok, so that an let's talk about that, but before we talk about that, I want to talk to about Casper mattresses. As you know, as you may not know, I have three gas ranches in my own home, I have three children, each of them sleeps on Casper Mattress, and so I speak from the heart. When I say that Casper's asleep ran the creative outrageously comfortable mantra sold directly to consumers. The list mission driven inflated prices, its award, winning sleep surface was developed in house, has a sleek design is delivered in a small how'd. They do that size box, and it really is like it comes into your house. It's a box, you open the box and there's this wrapped up thing and you cut it with a box cutter and they're. Just blowing was open and there you have a mattress
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so I think I am I because I said I was not gonna talk like AMOS rounds. I keep saying that I'm not gonna do it, so I slipped it in there and if you saw it, congratulations is actually nothing to talk about sounder unfortunate, ok, good. Now the thing that has triggered no is saying that we may be in a position to start talking about whether or not trumped support is sufficiently soft to look ahead. When he twenty by, though, is Molly. The trump himself is holding campaign rallies of his raising money in running commercials for his re election So some of the notion of may well have really talk about this, because that is the present.
Of all he's, gonna do is run for office for it you know, that's what he likes to do. He doesn't want to be. President, doesn't, like being president, is like making these decisions the only likes to getting hostile and get up picking on Jim Acosta having rallies, none the less his pollster twenty four Bertuccio Baffling Lee Bath Only yesterday, or the day before yesterday released a pole that he had taken, presumably paid for by some iteration of the Trump campaign on potential twenty twenty match: ups against Trump in G Opie Primary and the pole reported again by trumps own people himself says the Trump has the sure, support of fifty percent of the GNP primary electorate. He is president of the United States, the head of the report,
Can party he's when president for seven and a half months- and he is fifty percent support, meaning in theory fifty That's the problem party is willing to consider voting. For somebody else now what that Just is forty five percent of their problem, primary electorate in twenty twelve and willingly. Twice its Dana willing, the nomination any so he's gotten now another five percent top of that are dirty relative tube to join in the forces, people running against them? The numbers are not impressive. John K, second TED cruiser led the lead. The two top they're, not not impressive, case it gets what sixteen percent yeah and crews gets. Fourteen percent right Ok, ok, I never got sixteen percent in the primary. Never
I mean you know what you want: oh hi, ok, one or highly one Manhattan its want to point out that women have so what do I owe and men have, but they ve Twitter so we went back and looked and tried to find anything comparable. Is I mean people? I really didn't ask this question about whether our you'd know media person ass did it was done by twelve himself? Ok, so in November, twenty ten after the show lacking of the mid term election when the hat, when
GNP, one sixty three seats in the house because of a Mamma care as just a big just ever facts we're ok. So all g o p Donald Trump Pulse fifty percent to TED Cruises. Fourteen John case, it pulls ten excuse me, I'm so yeah, ok, good that then gets run then has been Saskatoon again among definite GEO. Primary voters dung tramples fifty four percent TED crews, thirteen percent John case TAT. Ok, and then fell down the only comparable Paul that we were able to find just one real, quick guests in ensuring that is a hundred percent among all GEO P. Definitely Donald Trump voters, forty two percent, among likely primary voters. Forty nine percent Ok, this is a promptly pole. I just want to make clear. This is not the crooked media. This is not the main stream this is not a wine CNN pull. This is trumps own Paul. He has
fifty per cent less fifty percent solid support, thinking ahead to twenty twenty about voting for him. So you can talk till the was come home, but how is now losing Republicans support, but this good me- and you know, in other words like when you ask- do support what do you oppose them? And people ask this question? He get somebody somewhere between seventy five and eighty percent. Is you know, what's not on that Balin? What media right? Ok, so right Traveling only win against the media. Ok. Right and the media are not running for president. So let's go: let's go. Let's go through this. They reported that I don't know why maybe they're stupid, maybe trumpet stupid. Maybe Jared is stupid. Maybe you know Maybe Tony Fabrizio stupid. I dont know twenty four breeds YO. I d never heard he was stupid, but it could be stupid man, no them
twenty ten pole, Roper Paul Obama after the show lacking when he was at his weakest political point ever sixty five percent of Democrats said they would vote for it. We, twelve Hilary got. Sixteen may Hilary. I was run against him, but it's not obviously comparable and the simple fact the matter is that if you were Democrat he had Obama. Had fulfilled various promises that he had made righty passed, they passed the affordable care. Act in March, twenty ten he had done Dodd Frank. He had nest partially nationalize, the auto industry. He had a list of accomplishments that were pleasing to his basin to Democrats and there is trump. So I dont know what this means. I'm fired. I, sort of wonder whether the from whether this is an outlier, but I am still sitting here
shaking my head of the fact that they didn't after release this way. We didn't have to know this fact that was just been released before us. I don't understand why we're seeing it, I don't know it does accept suggest that he is that the ground It is already softened for him, it's very Equally, if he runs twenties, twenty twenty, that he would lose a prime hate to plot. No, I don't think anyone. No one has ever lost two primary challenges that President Lyndon John. And decided not to run in
sixty eight fearing that he would be knocked off by Jo Eugene Mccarthy and then by Robert Kennedy coming into the race, but so what so? No one's ever done it before it can really think that is going to happen. Well, here's a marquis of alien theory, which probably is overly charitable to Thee strategists that strategy strata that are in the White House operating right now is that this is bait. This is a way to get people who are predisposed to take run it as president and probably not on that list of people. They chose by the way to start thinking about a print surely to star, possibly organizing or at least feeling out donors feeling out what a wooden operation would look like, making themselves known to the to the Trump White House so that they could be neutralized early
you know I would be comforted in some sense if I thought that that was the way that they thought, because that would suggest a degree of political intelligence. I dont see at work in among among these novices em and and families, and when ludicrous- and it was a veritable its way I said I would have relieved to think that it was true. I just don't know what do you think like I said I wrote in this in the blood posed a few weeks back. This is sort of like kind of an order of operations that you have to go through when dealing with the trumpet miniaturized first thing you should assume, as if there is a mistake or something absurd has happened. You know then, and so, if we, if we hit that, if we hit that first, however, that the Greenwood Well, that's what you call the, but I mean and monopolies. If we assume that first ice MIKE it would be something like Rob saw that thought mistakenly. It was good and said:
What that out there and no and no one is in a position to say no to him. Ok more than what Bob what Sir I that's a better better shot. Then them the idea that that they're doing this drop people or or its or something much much more generally sloppy like they just like the sort of stir up things on every front. And sending this out their own setting this this data point either will do that Way or another will what I mean a dynamic. It doesn't even really matter because it demonstrates pretty conclusively that barring a real change in the behaviour of the executive, not because he doesn't have any accomplishments virtue,
serenity and who knows what new cycle is gonna come down the paper towel, tremble, always be Donald Trump. Enamel Trumbull still provoke these emotions, and these sentiments among republican voters who are predisposed not to support him so, regardless of what their intention was, this probably indicates that there will be a primary challenge to from whom and to what degree, its width, potent challenge we don't know, but I would be willing to put money little bit of money down on that prospect,
please today I mean, I don't think, there's any question that the incentive day this is the only disincentive for somebody to make a serious challenge against him is the character assassination that will be attentive against somebody in the possibility that he will be sort of you know, driven out of the republican Party. Having said that, you know we're just at the beginning of a of a pathway in which people are being driven out of the Republican Party, whether they like it or not. I mean all the efforts are gonna be made. You know we have a president who is threatening directly threatening a sitting. Republican senator vice by endorsing were looking to endorse a primary challenger, Jeff Life, flick of Arizona when Republicans have fifty to see.
In the Senate and can ill afford to lose one, even if they have a good year next year, and maybe that's good. That's disciplinary action against somebody who is being disloyal or something like that. So little keep everybody else in line or the other way to look at it is you know he will he'll, kill, kill us all and maybe we need to cut of do something about it. He is now starting to go openly at Mitch, Mcconnell, who is of course somebody that the that his base doesn't like and hasn't like four year then you know bright barred is now gonna do what it can to destroy. Mitchell cuddle is not up for reelection raise not up until twenty two he too, but having, but nonetheless sooner they came. A Jeff Lake is which play. Kids and Mitch. Mcconnell with somebody who you know is willing to, like is the leader of the Republican Party in the Senate. But you know you could do if Trump really hates them and like once to destroy
then you have this thing where suddenly Trump is demanding that republican centres choose between him and Mitch, Mcconnell India's unhappiness and everything it open. But this is it. This is deeply de stable. Raising and a person doesn't generally destabilize his own house. Like you, don't you don't start you don't start hacking away at the foundations of your own house, while you're living at it. It doesn't make logical sense to have your house collapse while you're ghetto enemy across the street is you know, maybe his house to serve collapsing old that but you're giving them time while you collapse your own house to rebuild zone and then Hildy you're both selling your house? save time and his house will sell much more easily than yours. It does make sense. So so what's going on, but let's talk about the character or the nature
of what some of this early data suggest about what a primary challenger or someone who's looking at this is a possible primary challenger. Might take away till we go to this one. I don't accept what I expect from my present Noah. What he would do, you think, will you? Where do you think a primary challenger goes well, we were discussing this in the back. And I think that you can probably because personality is too hard to identify at this point, as John said earlier in the programme, you don't know where challenges, gonna come from. If histories any guide come from somewhere, you didn't expect it to come from so going down that road is
learned, but we can speculate on a little bed, is the eighty illogical inclinations of somebody who would be predisposed to challenge this president and an ice. As I see it, there is proper oxamide. Three of those, with varying degrees of of potential, to generate a primary challenge. The first we'll call it the case that, when witches John K, sick, who is very likely personality wise guy to challenge this president, but also from his perception of where this president is failing, which is on places like entitlements in Bonn, the care which he doesn't want to see, repealed and necessarily but fixed shored up with more revenue in the form of taxes. When have you John case, as you too, statement a mundane
disagreeing with Donald Trump decision to extend America's presence in Afghanistan. So he's running at the president from the centre left of the Republican Party. There is another wing which we will see the kind of call. I guess the Jeff Flake Ben SAS wing of this party, which doesn't take much issue without Trump on policy, particularly because he's been massaged and his shoulders have been. You know needed into a place where he is generally echoing republican policy prescriptions. At this point, after much resistance, they managed to forest Donald Trump into a conventional republican policy position where they disagree with him and where they think he's dangerous is on temporary compartment behavior. What he says about Serbia, Mugabe. Is there anyway, and which is the only way of this party. That's really genuinely pissed off at Donald Trump Urban policy reasons of you if you paid attention to, for example, but but See ban was saying on his way out. The door is that Donald Trump has forgotten what Trump ism
then he needs to be reminded and nudged in the direction of the populace nationalist guy that he ran on. That seems, likely to generate a populist are a primary challenge, because you can't he's the only game in town and he's probably the best they're going to do, but then really annoyed and frustrated. So that's that's where we stand today in my look at a so the let's start with the compartments question. So I would. I would argue that this is not what I expect behaviors our expenses president, if you have sixty some odd per cent of soft GEO p, and if you try to blend this with that Fabrizio Paul
That says, the forty were only if he only has hard support of forty nine percent of the republican electorate. You can presume that everybody in that that's not in that free nine percent is in that soft. You remember, member. You look at that you're like ok. Well, that's that's the target of opportunity. His behavior since not ideological attack. It is a personality and compartment attack. No, I don't. I don't see that being so powerful. I really don't because. It's also what so many people seem to like about and wet weather, whether that's captured and in in metrics or not, and I also think that If that were to have been a factor, if that, if that were so significant factor, it would have already played against him. More significantly, I mean out of the ETA of the
the the three camps had no oh laid out. I think the one with the most potential potency there is the sort of is the ban in length. I don't see what they were angry about enough where, where there are angry enough yet too, to really challenge him really not. In any particular issue Donald Trump card can throw the bloody tuna got them, as we talked about earlier in Jenin and directed their anger, whereas most beneficial to him toward other Republicans, then there is no problem, but if he is unable to do that and if they somehow come to their senses and realised that this, the avatar of their frustration, the complete and competent. Then it could be a dangerous for ok. I think you guys are both nuts three cars
you're gonna tell me that somebody is gonna run as such as a trump was more trump than Trump wit. What person on the planet aside from me now Alex Jones, is more trump than Trump. I mean what what talk show host is there, who is to the right of Trump personality, compartment and issues Michael Savage. I mean who an Coulter is gonna run a guy. You know an culture will run against him. I mean maybe, but I think that That'S- that he is. He is the farthest to that leaning that anyone will ever get the idea that there will be somebody will up and say you know why he was he's. You know, he's a grab him by the blank here,
that is actually just a paper tiger and he doesn't really have the guts to really get out, get the wall and killed Muslims and do that. On the one hand, and one- and I agree with you entirely, but there is always room for this unforeseeable development, and I keep thinking about let back to life in my estimation daily, Why am I a machine like russian my estimation? What what what what go back to Andrew? What Andrew Bright Bart built, ok and then sort of left behind when tragically died, You never could have foreseen that that thing that whole would have been sort of handed over to Donald Trump of all people, which is it which is really largely what I think happened, amendment which is sort of a big out of his early support and everyone else. Who knows what? What what? What the next sort of leap in connection and unexpired
one is- and I would add that, since what we have decided, the transactional value is for his voters is his affectation, his prickling this and his enemies, the people who he's antagonize and they enjoyed that the fact that their antagonizing- that is a good thing, now keep some satisfied now because it doesn't look like her any diminishing returns for it after twenty eighteen. If we decided that this becomes Obamacare in so far as the value for it is intangible, it's often that in future and the negative consequences of it are here today. Now it becomes less of an oven animating waited to as an organizing principle, necessarily rather fur his for his base. They don't need even organizing principle. All they need to do is is a firm that he is the leader. I did not vote against, unlike you after affirmatively choose to turn on him to turn on him, whereas entropy would would simply entropy, which is
governing force of the universe would simply have you go with him, because there's no real realistic. Turn it up. That's why I say that you look to eye by the way. I say what all this with the notion that it is incredibly unlikely than any primary challenge will be successful. The person who could be most easily droid wouldn't be somebody who comes from an app from an honor and Auntie trampoline like Trump can't destroy Kasich case. It will have been to terms we will have been out as you know, but I guess term limited as governor of Ohio and he'll be sixty six years old and he'll, be whatever it'll be in Trump. Doesn't have the means to touch him let's see you now hires private detectives defined terrible things out about him, and similarly, if somebody decides that they're going to champion the anti trembling from current political basis like the dense, ass or something
that he will already have been making a decision that the his future is does not lie with a republican party that rejects him so freer fiercely that he is He'll be out, he'll go somewhere else and get away with Paul Ryan will leave and gotTa Goldman Sachs or he'll go well, I'm university somewhere or be upon dead, or do something like that. So the question is whom can party can much more easily hurt someone who comes at him from his base that he can hurt someone who comes at him and tries to appeal to this group of Republicans who are sick of them in that tonight. Here? That would be my view. Ordinarily, people don't enter political races to lose them. That's that's trumps great basis right is that most primary chow just come from people who are making symbolic bids. You know of a with the exception of Teddy Kennedy or
Ro Ro rigour ran against forward because Ford did never won anything Jimmy was president by acclamation out by congressional fear, not by not by voters. But, ah you know Mccarthy didn't run in sixty eight thinking. He was gonna win and beauty, Didn't run and ninety two thinking he was gonna win and you run for other reasons ripe, and but the thing is that in this case trump, with so much has been said about what damage trump might conceivably due to the American National experiment that you know, someone will do it
lose and all too often the ground. So I hadn't Kennedys, often aground in the eighty four vixen and obviously the primary challenge to Johnson. Even though Johnson wasn't the candidate suffer the grand for Nixon to be Humphrey. And the light. I look as out, of course, major early Buchanan softened the ground for four made Oh a candidate in ninety two was parole. Who can together, who we can a beginning and improve finishing who handed the presidency, the Clinton and so look at its ardently. I concede that. I don't think that the banning of the party is most likely to generate this challenge. I think
most likely to come from the quantum quote: Pence Ass, Jeff like when they met in one channel it might be to my mother- will challenge us, but that is going to be the most potent challenge because it's the it's the one that is already exists now because of the conditions that the president is is demonstrating. Now his compartment is the problem with him not his his and that's never going to change in everybody's. Ok with that they come to terms with that. So Jeff leg is poorly positioned right now he might lose his primary and even if he won, the primary might lose its general, but he could very well loses primary. The guy has a book out basically attacking Donald Trump Emmi he's gonna
What is his bed, his political after life, is going to be the posts Trump Republican Party if he has a poor lefroy for he'll, go, do something else. That's what I'm saying like politics is not going to be very hospitable to people if trumpets a successful to non trompe. Republicans, if trumpets is successful republican president like if you are, if you don't like what trump stands for and who he is, and the policies that he enumerates and the behaviour that he shows you. We have started your life in politics, but you may be going into banking really quickly like what do you need this? For this? Exactly what you don't want. You don't want, as you don't wanna, be this in you're not going to be a liberal cause, you're, not a liberal, but politics is no longer your home. It happens. A lot like the Democrats, in you know, between the sixties and so after the Mcgovern take over, like their party became in hospital,
all too that now, as it happens, weirdly enough, their party became a hospitable to them, and the Republican Party emerged as as as a larger is a bigger tent than some of them at least, could move into That's not happening with the Democrats like there's not going to be any NEO liberal movement where But, like us end up, you know in the party with Sanders and black lives matter, and you know Linda SAR, Sir and people who want to take down? You know statues of want to close grant's tomb, like that's like there's, no home firm for Jeff Flake, their fill gram, J he's the hut, Phil Grab he's not gonna, go democratic republican and beer wine and beer Democrat politician that Belgrade Party is moving left not to the centre right, but there is a lesson, their bad. How how there's always more room to go to the fringe than you thought? I mean
Obama was was dramatically progressive, left, left wing president level, liberal, left, liberal president in an end in itself, many ways and did accomplished so many of his goals in terms of or or or some version of them terms of health care and whatever else and pulling out military I pulling out of IRAN, Iraq and yet There was a huge contingent among his supporters who thought you know. I really thought he was going to deliver more. I really thought he was going to I'm. I'm surprised that that he didn't get more done. I was hoping for refuge, revelation arrest enough bank right, let's that mainly right right, like you didn't frog March enough banker, event down to the you now down to the gallows. You know you know during the day. Terror, and, and who would have imagined, though, that than that that would give rise to the burning movement afterward, I mean
right. We always say that yeah that I democratic Party would look at you dead. I remember I'm. I wrote a letter. I wrote this is this? Is there you know at the point of diminishing returns on progress, I wrote a piece in after the twenty times lacking, in which I said you would know about the health of the Democratic Party if it stay, if it of primary, challenge rose to a mamma that would represent the health of the Democratic Party for some to defend himself force them to make the case that he was more electable and that I said that Russia, fine gold, was the guy who should run against them. The the progressive senator for was consumed by making the case that Dodd Frank didn't go far enough for the distant hamper that didn't happen, or something like that, and that the fact that there was no primary challenge and twenty twelve after sixty three seats were lost was- and I think I was correct in this
was a mark of the democratic parties. Institutional weakness, not its strength. Well, we could be gone into that point. We don't know, what's gonna happen in the mid term right now we are still in the middle of the point of Donald Trump Presidency, where he looks formidable he has a really bad mid term elections and we don't know how how bad it could possibly get by doesn't look them is a big open question is how bout a component is that you know that the great irony this is my the God whom the girl God's destroy. They first make mad, so you can really easily see a situation in which Republicans lose the house They only need to lose twenty forces to lose the house and gain five seats in the Senate so that so or like Cabot. This met for its worst case scenarios about this sword sanity they lie. Does the house they lose forty seeds in the house and they win eight in the Senate, so they get a they get a closer. They get a view approve a closer majority in the Senate. Can pass arable again the Senate and the house
Meanwhile, impeaching trump everything pace that would be, but it out ways things are going one direction. I usually the way things are going in this country That would be the suitable events of twenty a team wouldn't so what my point is that what looks like strength now in the event that he's repudiated rather definitively by voters, won't look like strength in a year after that election it'll, look like wrote, performance, art of the kind that you know had lost its lustre a long time ago, whether or not that's enough to motivate voters to go to the polls reaffirm that. I don't know I mean look a lot of us live. You know that we all live in this house. As atmosphere we paid. We pay way too much attention to the stuff. We are tired where
exhausted all the entire or political classes. Tired, exhausted and the public doesn't follow it. This way, writes a wee, wee, Wee started, saying: look. I can't go on like this. After about sick? weeks basically like how gonna go on like this. It was the muslim ban and then there was the other muslim man, and then there was me, and then there was. I don't remember than there was sessions are accusing himself and Russia's toughen and Flint firing and we're all like how thou longer than those that whole thing about Friday night at five o clock every day at five o clock, there's a new story: that's gonna drive you crazy, and all that and now at seven months and we're still, people are still saying it. After, like the fair result of speeches like happiness go on, we can take it. We can take it. Ok, but assume that then like the Movie Dunkirk, where different people or have different time schemes and Tom Hearty is all we're. Seeing is Tom Parties actions over an hour we're seeing the boat over a day and were seeing the beach over a week
so we're Tom hardy where the hour and we're all we do is folks. In contrast this and then you have a bunch of other people there and the country is the beach it's the weak and they're, not tired, yet like or Republicans or not tired, unexhausted they're not done inexhausted yet, but it's only seven months, even for them. What? If this goes on for two years, two and a half years, they're gonna, get tired to you. Think they're gonna wanna, hear fourteen. You think Trump giving his twenty Eightth Campaign rally speech somewhere. It somewhat they're gonna go he's saying it again, and he says there is doing it again like a shot up already. You know just as we have heard because we we are like microscope.
If we focus, but it doesn't mean that the impression doesn't get made over time with other people- and I like it, looks rather pathetic in the event that he has suffered a cordon quote shall asking if I lose a lively, doesn't control of the house. I just gotta be more interesting, obviously more interesting and more ambiguous in everything. If he doesn't exactly, she'll lack like losing. Let's say he loses the house, but he loses twenty succeeds, which is what Reagan Lawson and ninety, maybe to lose twenty six, but doesn't lose much of the Republicans dealt with much of this right. They lose their. Maybe they gain through a scenario is one maybe or zero. Yet the two republican Incumbent centre on the bubble lose than they have a fifty fifty majority, No, but then there are all these democrats in bad shape right, that's the whole thing was a terrible s case in area. Every Democrat it on a Republican lose too and they still effectively to majority, were ok with. There was pence, their break, the Thai, so you know it
like that could happen, and then you could just have ambiguity like ye did badly. They knew that badly and, of course, even if he does badly there's Obama having one having them badly right and Reagan, One having that badly. But all of that depends on America, maybe not only to look at a bomb at least had a recovery going on and twenty even owes a lousy recovery was a bit of work. It was still coming from the bottom of two of the financial meltdown. An trump that's the whole thing where we get back to does. He have to show real results that he can go around and talk about, cosy he's Happy to go ran talking about results. Real imprinted, pretending they are real right. That's one of his big thing, hoping that struck me look if if he show grow ones but had more accomplishments. I don't have you heard this this, the most that's ever been done by a presidency ever and the like.
As president did about five thousand more things than he did, but if he can show better growth and Obama, if he, if you know of a book above Obama's shop said you know, look to pursue Andrew whatever is the sort of new normal and if he can envy and say well, that's actually not true, look, look what I did and not at war you are. We may be in a crazy sort of tenderness. Your political spiritual state, we're not actually war, the economy's actually growing employment is growing that that that then people who say yeah, but I don't like his conduct- I'm not sure I know I'm frizzle, it's not people right every me ever growing. Every Democrat in the country is going to vote against them and to act horse. Every Democrat that didn't vote form in twenty. Sixteen is not voting for and most people who come on line because they turned eighteen are not going to vote for him.
And you know- maybe maybe the Democrats who voted for him and helped him win in those three states are going to vote for him again. We don't know okay, so it's not about that solve this question whether or not the intensity of his support. The republican party will be mad. By less intensity, but people who vote for many workers are certainly not going to vote for the other. Guy parlor depends on who the other guy is right. I mean again he's. Not gonna run against Hilary. He had unique, he had a unique value, circumstance a ring and salary. On the other hand, he wasn't no incumbent either incumbents have all sorts of natural advantages. That's what we don't know about, but if he has a serious primary challenge and heap and hit his behaviour in the primary challenge you know is striking and bad and all that that's all, it's him up, so he'll be the issue and remit
for the genius of twenty twelve? Was that a bomb I manage to make Romney as much of an issue as a bomb was the issue that was the secret someways pushed to the same with carry right, a means of the swift boats and his weakness, son terrorism, whatever you want to call it if the incumbent can make the challenger an issue than the incumbent has enormous benefits will be hard for a baby to be hard for Trump to get that like Hap capture
at lightning in a bottle again. I just don't know that. That's really something that we can depend on now, maybe will become back I'm out. Next week we haven't even discussed what skimming go on next week with me gone vacation in terms a pike ass to guess you guys do it when we get back after Labour day. Maybe the lecture me be news to talk about and not spend ten speculation that twenty one thing we do this because it sir it's it's like fantasy football. It's like was more fun to talk about, to speculate on what the order of the line up will be them to actually look at where things are now because reflects our mouths depressing. But you will you re gap, but you know we tried it much trudged through it on a daily basis, and we keep you all
gotta, give you all in and are you not and detained, and we try not to be too numerous, we're contrary to our reputation, we're not morose label, may other faiths says look them arose essentially. That's funny, I just didn't think I forget fever coming out with lower, but dollar that's got really hot coming our meal made by May now. I shall know his dream it's a trauma apologized for payment in its get bored. It's the Trump rally, speed, no look right right or wrong. We are not particularly morose. We are perceptive. This is what you know. We were our crushing. Veracity now has been, we ve been, salute. Let's overture owes you arose, you know we were morose in July of twenty fifteen. That's when we were more. That was when it was like what on earth is that was more, raw city was like June of twenty sixteen or that access Hollywood.
Pay for something that was morality now we're just like resignation, now we're just riding the outward: writing the dragon. Not if I said I would die by game with rounds, but what the hell is without ice dragon. I thought you were talking about like a cop. What, What that ice dragon Noah dragon what devised, regular spit ice like this doesn't make any sense, a dead zombie dragon, What happened to while I was there and I watched shown there was a zombie dragon. That's all I'm telling you ok, the last episode of the seizure of Sunday alerts there at all ah, it's Thursday, if you don't know about the zombie dragon by the way. It's not that big did not really like a shocking revelation. It's like a zombie dragonettes. All we don't know what does maybe it baby it won't do anything I don't. But zombie dragon as a big big blue eye zombie dragon Tommy drivers area, who has been rather think the round. Aren't you glad
you know I could talk about candied, I'm reading candied, which is so fantastic. I am reticence, I was fourteen and boy did I not get it, and my thirteen year old, I breathing cuz my thirteen dollars to read for eighth grade and I'm, like you want to talk about that trigger. You want to talk about something it's like I'm breathing and thinking. How are they going to talk about this in school? Like everybody is given, there's like rapes and didn't flogging and killings in theirs? They wild Eddie, Semitism and all the end, it's like, I don't know how they're going to talk about it without every Five minutes say this: triggering Oda betrayed her eyes. Were careful look at paragraph to talk about very sensitive issues. Here it is the it is just day. Work of transcendent, humorous, NEA was amidst just amazing, so I just went from very low to vary. Well, but we are, but I would think that a pre university level education is actually less sensitive than than the than that
college- wouldn't it be more self worth of lawyer and eighth, but I dont think, but there are days created like the first five pages. The right level is also about how cute a gun, candied love is like, stabbed and repeated we re till I ever me by an enemy vit. Like you know, I don't know. What's the matter is that were set by the rape in it before right, but they are not activists batted when you get to when you get to college. They are well let you know where I won't, because it sooner my daughters, wow what a graph blow the whistle anything I'm just-
is a shockingly brilliant and shock even the written like three hundred fifty years ago, it still retains the capacity to make your jawdropping in shock from the otter, but from this kind of cheerful, Neil listing portrait of human barbarity and the and the constant human effort to pretend, as though the barbarity does not exist, that's the story of candied, I missed it. I thought it was just stick up. You know picturesque John around Europe S, my daughter, will two of them and of divided between serve trying to explain to her what the awful things are going on in case. She, MRS it and the jokes, are fairly jokes about Otto, the phase of give jokes about flogging, people, hanging them and burning in our written in this kind of insouciance manner as the la de DA. This is how life is it's just astounding anyway, that's candied by Voltaire. If you haven't found, read it and gave a threat,
five episode with desire be Dragon Sunday night, I'm going on vacation and no enable be here. I won't be here, no able beer Monday seller, we'll be ashore on Monday mobility, one on Tuesday, where you going ape, I think gonna happen now, MR elite global actor, Yet this is that this will be the one part of my son. That will resemble an actual summer. Mrs this vote me- I'm verily I I have not left this island, I am so, the cradle of the confederacy, my friend, I'm going to South Carolina Charleston to Fort Sumter. Where are you now perhaps, I will see the white and join the all right hard to say. I doubt it. It's only is hardly Emily. You go in or exclusively revere the revolutionary war history you go down there and you ignore all the civil war stuff and you just focus on the rebels
very worst off your golden. Can I just say one thing: I don't want to be like a horrible Lido day. You know the left wing monster here, but I've been. I was in Charleston like ten eleven years ago, first time and in others, there's a serve like open air market where you buy, you know trinkets and they love like of liquor. Arts are didn't. You know like a classic flea market thing on Saturday or something and it is in Charleston. It is where they did the slave auctions. It's the slave auction place and there they still have like the places like the like the giant things where this slaves would standards and be auctioned off. And I thought this was incredible. Creepy. It's like you, know, saying that the confederacy of Nazi Germany, but like this, is a little like you now buying of buying fresh
rooted outfits? I don't know. Maybe that's all I'm saying so. You can send me e mail about how I'm a terrible person- and I don't understand the sacrifices of the for the glorious cause of all that, but I that was my last experience, withdrawal so which is otherwise gorgeous, and I am taking my family there. We will see Fort Sumter and the sea Now the setting Argon America and this beautiful town and all that, but but
that's why you know that's why I am an unreliable I'm, an unreliable person in terms of this issue of the kind of respecting the confederate past, still think it was really weird that right outside Washington DC theirs, I way named after Jefferson Davis doesn't make. Any sense is really about. Did you there's a fantastic was a fantastic piece about this last week that the Jefferson Davis Highway business is all was all a response in the early teens and twentys to the creation of the Lincoln highways. Where there was a there was an ever before there were interstates. There was a national effort to create was called the Lincoln Highway system. Annie Ferguson writes about this brilliantly in his book, land of Lincoln and and so in response.
Jim Crow States feeling outrage at this level, moralize Lincoln decide they will get a more or less Jefferson Davis by having many ways confederate lying there twentieth century constructions in response to yet revisionism and northern in a triumphal ism I know, but you don't understand, Noah its blood and whale nineteen. Eighty, nine, the year of the confederacy aspect that the first that's Arizona than those talking about, and so and so we lose the last of our old right listeners. I felt were and five minutes ago is really about to say, keep the camel burning, and then I don't know it kept me going so we ve just you know either either we are now the liberals. Favorite conservatives are where the young are offices. Argument get swarm by Richard Spencer, so
aid for I Rossman and Abraham. All I'm John onwards. Keep the candle.
Transcript generated on 2019-12-13.