On the first podcast of the week, the COMMENTARY crew (Abe Greenwald, Noah Rothman, and I) ventilate upon the White House invitation extended to Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte, who has openly acknowledged his participation in extra-legal assassinations in his country's drug war. Why is such a person being ushered into the Oval Office? Also, we wonder whether the Democratic Party will be in the proper condition to score the kinds of victories in 2018 and 2020 it clearly believes are inevitable. Give a listen.
This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
some guy welcome until the commentary magazine podcast May day may first, twenty thousand and I'm John Podhoretz, the editor of commentary with no Rothman associate other high. A green while our senior editor, hello, Abe. John gentlemen, we find ourselves. Thirty years after a while
Reagan participated to the shock of many in helping to depose Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos after a rigged and fixed election, Thirty years later, we find President Donald Trump eager unwilling to welcome Rodrigo to tear tat the current president of the Philippines and a man who, just out before the president, invited him to the White House or said he was gonna meet him in the White House. Confess, to having committed many murders as part of an extra legal vigilante squad, even his region in the Philippines where he was the mayor and the governor, devout city in Mindanao, somebody who is basically supported,
the use of extra legal and extra judicial vigilantes drug war in the Philippines who asked Ass, the United States calling us a bunch of bullies and sissies, I think called Barack Obama. The prestige I'd say it's a piece of trash or a piece of slime is clearly mentally unstable and any one election with not a huge margin. Above thirty, eight percent of the votes of he's, not even a sore dominating political figure means obviously dominant. But here you know it's not like. He comes to will come to America as thee YO serve like Grand victor of in a new order in the Philippines course formerly in american colony. Ah then, after its after efforts, independence and my him, for he said
the sight of the largest military installations in the world outside the United States and Amity an enormously close close of the United States, particularly after we participated in a deposition of Mercosur and agreed to closing down Clarkson Subic, which the to the two Major bay, says which were an a thorn in they nationalist side of of the Philippines and important relations. It's strategic relationship This is a minor country, you now second or third level country for us and a lot of Sir feeling very disheartened at the moment that the present I'd states would extend you now and in friendship to a monstrous killer and supporter of
You know what is the opposite of the rule of law is someone who is clearly attempting, in some fashion or other, to destroy the knot. Not wonderfully well ordered Democrat workings of of a now I am an important region to us, but. Nonetheless still still ramshackle but functioning democratic system. We should in a picture here of what dumb, what life is like in the Philippines since deter, take, came to power We believe seven thousand people approximately had been killed by police or by these
militias that are organised at the behest, though the actual request on the stamp of the president to tear time and their targeting quota will drug dealers, drug users. Anybody whose has anything to do with narcotics, men and narcotics trade, either targeted for death and of the door actual bodies in the street sexual, the New York Times, had a really devastating photo essay, of several months back of the prisons are Irina, extreme, inhumane condition, their images of people piled in stairways on top of one another, because the overcrowding is insane members of his former administration or rolling on him. There there is somebody who talked to this: the country Supreme Court implicating Rodrigo to Turkey, implicitly of responsibility for these massacres and then there's
a GEO political necessity here for the president to repair the relationship with the Philippines, do signalled in his populist way. A desire to integrate the Philippines into the sooner sphere and a relationship that closer between Manila and Beijing. Then Manila Washington is explicitly not in our interests and we all have a necessity to repair that this relationship even if it's a little bit distasteful in the same way, by the way, the left now for his very frustrated by the fact that Donald Trump invited, for example, egyptian president ceasing to the White House, because he doesn't have a very stellar, human rights record and an old fashioned. I mean not just gotta bottle now it is not just that not just the left me. There are people, including our own, MAX boot, who writes on our blog, were disappointed, the invitation to see? I disagree with MAX. I think that it's silly to say that the somebody who
stilted so unambiguously toward the United States in the EU after the arab spring, and- and creating a revolution in consciousness about the relationship between Egypt, and is it was something that we should be dealing westward to tear days a creature of an entirely run of the mill. Political repression is one thing, but I mean this guy praised Hitler. Let he literally said Hitler and by the way another thing that Trump has done. Another thing that you have to understand what it means for term to have done. This is that we had an ambassador in the Philippines, Philip Goldberg. I believe a. Who was an assistant secretary of state Ambassador Basket Bolivia, long term foreign service officer who was having a fight with dude ok, but something or other. Last year he called
a gay ambassador and the son of a whore. So, I understand the down from his my crazy about the states. Mom doesn't seem to care that much about you know about serves and his government is not a personal friend of his, but he as the leader of the foreign service and the double I call the United States and the person the people who work for it, and it cannot be acceptable for aid for only a ten pot pseudo dictator to be calling. American public servants, sons of whores in public, because they're having some kind of a dispute about something or other ended, it wasn't about something. Rather it's about what what it means that you know that that you have a president of great who is who is literally now?
They supporting but may himself be participating in the actual direct murderers of of people who have not been data not been tried, not been, not been arrested, just just just shot down in the street and that the danger there said that actors are bold and by being acknowledged and and reached out to buy United States, they may be big, take that back to go home and where that is badge of honor and they sort of puffs them up and and it will send tools. You know proceed apace with with whatever nightmares they they they had. They had planned or, or or to launch new ones. It looks at the doktor of real politics says you know, don't be naive. We have to deal with a lot about actors in the world. It's silly to pretend that weakens or make these decisions based entirely on on on moral preconditions and amend the presumption that everyone, this was to behave like Caesar's wife, but that
it does not hold in the case of a somewhat unimportant country to us and which country that needs us much more than we need it. I mean, among other things, the amount of remittance that comes from Philippine subpoenas in the United States to the Philippines, as you know, is a very large part of that country's a balance of trade in and then the cash reserves that it has the money that the poor in the Philip in the Gatt, not just from us but from other places- and you know if you are of of as says our conduct, Philippine American says, and peace in that way, we stand. We know if you're a filipino sending money back home to to do territory, maybe you're, not gonna, wanna buy or come to your family and Duterte of Philippines. Maybe you're not going to want to send much money because you don't know, what's going to happen to it and you don't want to participate in the strengthening of the
regime, so that so you know we are much. We are much more capable of influencing their behaviour based on. The generally wildly good feeling that the philippine people have towards the United States, and yet we have a president who is willing somehow to coddle M act as though he needs to have a good and beneficial relationship with this monster. Thought that that's not there's. This is a version of Obama's approach to two countries with with abusive tyrannical leaders. He he served when over the heads of the of the people who might have had positive figures, but the about the? U S, thinking, particularly nor in IRAN, of course, but elsewhere and
get out to the leaders and that blood in his face well in Obama's case, he was doing that with the consent of the foreign policy establishment, as as misguided as we believe they were, and I think that fair, In this case we heard we already have protests from. We have what we understand according to the reporting from inside the administration from inside the annex c, from inside the state department. There is no geo political necessity to legitimize this guy. We can repair our relationships without providing him access to the White House and all the trappings that entails and also in us I mean this kind of intangible, but I was going over this on twitter we again you're throwing out some stuff about how atrocious this is and what an awful guide you territory is, and you know who reappeared variable I very happy about this, the pepper frogs they are thrilled about this. They are very defence, this guy just about every bad Andrews, Jenny
it's a lot of interest from the White Nationalist grew violent. Why? It seems like a philippine president is interesting character, well you're nationalist they rarely because, because he's a beacon of ugly right, that's all that's all they re. A new right illnesses is just a reversion. It's the red pill and the blue pearl matrix, so everything that sea, conventional you. You know you hate and everything that seems unconventional on. You How long has he s too, but you know, but if we, if we were to. If we think about Trump through look at him through the lens that we applied neither last podcast or to broadcast go or John pointed out. Fundamentally unserious and when and when we tried to sort of find serious meaning in in the things he does. It's it's futile and going down the wrong wrong path, so what
with that in mind. What what? What is the watch his thinking here? You know, I mean I, I love the alarming the alarming possibility and I'm sorry you cannot discounted, even if A trump fan is that there are close business ties between the Trump Organization and and business interest in Manila. There is up there. There are trump buildings in Manila, including an apartment complex that is advertising itself with a vodka trumps picture and one of them people who is involved in that development has been set to the? U S as an unpaid economic envoy by two territory himself, of personally and was in from tower during the transition talking to people on the transition team. So there is a The existing relationship with business interests in the capital of the Philippines and here we are three and a half months since the into
administration, and there may be Here- would problem where programmes that we see happening I mean there's no way to prove it and and that doesn't mean by the weather? The trunk call him in and yell at me know if there is an argument to be made that he calls him, and he says that you stop this right now and duterte. You know who, talking about you like the colossus of the World verses of pig me and who knows how to tear tat, would respond in the same way was made to explain away the trumpet minister. Your president's call to turkish president aired following my referendum, which nobody believes was genuine and valid in which provided him with good unique. It comes into effect with unique powers are aired. One area, one trump correct. Yes, we didn't have arrived the man you got to drive in case you missed it, but
the item, then I say you know we can really discount the business relationship. I don't, but at the same time I think he's probably responding to what he believes are America's geopolitical interests. We have a really serious relationship and necessity of our relationship with IRAN. One we have a real thus necessary relationship with the Philippines we need, and that part of it out by the way, an outreach strategy that encompasses all of Southeast Asia. Their variety South EAST Asia. Europe, so you're depend so your defending the real politic argument in some sense, which which, by the way would come we'd be comforting, and you know if, in fact that were the case, though you just can't believe that its true, because while I was there, I think she writes previous invasion biting into the White House in his hearing that relationship. You know about got that far right It s the way House Chief of staff said yesterday, and one other chat shows that we needed to have this meeting in order, because we need the Philippines help with North Korea. I don't
entirely understand what what help women from the Philippines in relation to North Korea. Philippines, don't exactly have influence on the Chinese, which seems to be are One non. You know pre emptive strike strategy to deal with the North Koreans before they really mean out before their weapons and weapons delivery system matures. But. You know if they actually do have reason to think that they can use the Philippines is a kind of staging area for some effort. Against North Korea them. Then they would, as I say, not that they're going to tell if it would be served heartening to know that there was strategy behind this or geopolitical strategy behind this. That does not well,
the case in one can't trust that what rights privacy in doing just tap dancing in public to defend the indefensible yeah. I think that's fair, I'm the only. I think your interpretation is the best. The only thing I can think of is that The Philippines is probably the most combative player in the dispute over these manufactured islands in the South, China Sea, Vietnam has some significant interest there. The Philippines have an interest there. Etc, and they all come into conflict with Beijing and that something that Beijing really wants to resolve amicably into its own benefit and to the extent that it can The Philippines on board at alienates Vietnam and that's a much bigger problem for China than the Philippines. Anyway. It says its gates carry weight depressing row, its depressing because you know how many were basically, the present United States does not have to meet with this pipsqueak monster
that's the story. Who isn't you know who didn't, even when, with a relative with a weed out with a Emily, he one with a plurality, button, leagues, way from even winning a majority in his own country, but leagues, away, leagues, away so and area I'm could meet with whom he wants to meet with that's the ultimate story, including if a vodka says meet with this guy or Jared, says me with this guy cause. It's good for the euro for the company. Because the only real disciplinary actually can be taken against such behaviour is impeachment. There is no. There is no legal remedy to take on the president for having meetings that might benefit his company. That's what people still have to get their minds around and clearly republican Congress,
probably salmon, aren't gonna vote two thirds to impeach tromp unless its numbers fall into the teams are something so Oh, he can serve act that will, if that's, what do and Emily are one of the reasons that, if he's doing it, you know that he is somewhat ashamed, nervous or bashed about it is that they both admitted see, I think, there's and others an answer that lies in trumps. And seriousness, which is that I think he likes meeting with heads of state. I think he will he he will. He likes the pomp rounded he likes to come out saying we had a very productive meaning we had good came office. Weird thing we have good chemistry likes to say you know he likes, he likes the photo. I think give him. It makes him you'll. Like he's doing what a statesman disposed to do, I think he thinks that he can talk to end one especially eccentrics, you know, but
actually me with a much lower figure. You know the rains that his his own statuses, even though you really don't need to be status. Conscious of the president, I states, if you bring the status consciousness to the office rather than without filling the office, yet maybe maybe that's good. He also has the vanity that continuing vanity of the look good guys bag. As you, girls get people together in a room and make a deal. He just said this year, gob smacking thing tubes. But this morning about the civil war, but average Sicily disease out about every Jackson in the civil war. In how you know it had the civil war happen. Andrew Jackson was really upset about that as Jackson, who died sixteen years before the civil war started, and basically relay asks about. Why this year or the idea so. You know it's it's an event that is shrouded in mystery is followed into the no one rights.
About it Nobody is interpreted in Vienna. It's really one of those things that just happen, that no one really has a million island hang really mad at you never know with falling in the forest. He doesn't know about it. I now with only if only there were tv shows about it movies about it. Do you know each is given by prior presidents at their second inaugural rules that are only five hundred and forty five words law unless summarised the reasons for the civil war in the greatest, at work of rhetoric ever produced by any leader, in the history of the world and you pretty exists. In short,
Basically, this five hundred and forty words- and you know I think even trump- could read five hundred forty words in one one sitting or could be broken up until a powerpoint sense by sentence if he likes those parliamentary he likes that he likes graphics. I think, and I mean where we're going off in a tangent, but his infatuation with Andrew Jackson has been imposed on him. He didn't read about Andrew Jackson before I ran for the presidency was informed by those who read history, that you're like Andrew Jackson, and you should really like Andrew Jackson and read a little bit about Andrew Jackson and go to Tennessee and talk to people Andrew Jackson never favour, never read a beggar point. People in Tennessee love, Andrew Jackson, it's weird by the way, because the stay of Tennessee of all this, aids in the south as police, clearly the illogically and historically very divided. There is up.
Part of Tennessee that really wanted to stay in the EU was was was not was opposed to the confederate cause, did not support checks only in politics, and you know it's not the best state to choose. If what you want to do is invoke jacks only inferior Behaviour South Carolina might be- or you know would be much close there were no matter where Jackson in Vienna might or might not be from, but there we have it Congratulations store, president for you. Now What was it idea, TAT Trump history. History like yes or like drunk history right, so you just like you- would use- illustrate trumps, this actually of areas. You know extemporaneous Leon, thoughts on history. We are right like go. What was it? You said the need me seemed suggesting thought Harriet
and was a lie was Harry backdrop Douglas Frederick Douglass, caricature, Frederick, Douglass rearing their support in between society. And yes, the look I dont honestly. So you know it said three and a half months into this presidency and he is who he is and we have to serve reconcile ourselves to it. But here in the case of new territory, we have a so. She says the ridiculous things about the civil war big deal if he says ridiculous things, but rejects and big deal. But it is a big deal when the decisions that he makes about what is going on in the world at the moment and what message that conveys out what what what if I mean Do territories killing people in the streets right, seven, as you said, seven thousand people's only Eddie, it's only been a year, has only been in office for a year. So it's it's not Bashar, Al Assad, it's not of the syrian levels, on a civil war in which is trying to be aroused out zone,
but you know we could you're talking about what could be forty, fifty thousand people. There is very little difference between this and the car. You know in the disappearance cedars in Argentina, I mean, or or you know, other and the Philippines has an islamic militancy problem. I would say F, which apparently, this administration, the deteriorating restoration is seeking accommodation with right because they want they want its help, combating this drug problem, which is really a social. I mean it's a very well, it's a throwback to the sort of social ideal of the the perfect Filipino who it's not about cohesion or the economy or anything anything that tangible. It sort of this envisioned ideal of what a filipino person is supposed to be. It's a very much a twenty two century sort of vision of,
totalitarianism- and you know- and this is this- is the downside- the famous ITALY do territory is the tough on crime president? That's how he got That, too, is is the populace tough on crime president, which is clearly I trump feel some kind of weird affinity toward him, and the funny thing is that you know compared compared to deter tat. In a world of tough being a tough guy. Like he's, a piker sort of like Putin like Trumpet Putin, like whatever happens, from seems to admire. This kind of I don't air about the niceties I'm gonna do what I have to do, and you know you should all can all go stuff it of course, when push comes to shove. As far as we know he's not willing to go that way. He wants
talk that way me once the writ rant that way and act like he's a talk show caller, but in the end you know, as people we're saying last week, drink I'll hundred days thing. What's motion talking about him. Is it with exceptional? the badly drafted executive orders that have not been yeah that have not been implemented its yeah. Not as though he is a tough guy president, who has been being really tough and being a tough guy. I mean he he got went off this. We get it. You know gave a very similar sweets to one of the ones that we gave them a campaign trashing There are times in, and the media in general in front of a crowded, Harrisburg Pennsylvania was really sir. I think about it or serve startling about it was how There seem to be no effort to connect what he was saying to what it was that he wanted to do.
Do we have a president that was he wants to attack the media because he would say they are trying very hard to block my agenda or make it difficult for you. What who need you, Americans need? That was the sparrow Agnew silently. He knows where I will attack on the media and the silent majority approach of nineteen sixty three, nineteen. Seventy was. The media were attempting to deal legitimize the solutions help make american people's lives better. That was not present in what the president talked about was present was staying there failing, no one believes them they're all fake news, and you know day that's terrible. It's like that's that's trump, the cultural voice he's giving voice to two took his supporters. That's his role! There and that's it very different animal from Trump the press who, who I mean,
Ah, there is theirs it there's it there's a deal to fund the government that in fact doesn't doesn't count for any there any of the truth, hard, tough policies that he had wandered like funding the wall like taking away federal funding for club where exactly you know what's funny, though, is that their there is now this weekend, a spate of stories are released about the demo product party analyses that are being done by by democratic organisations about what what went wrong on election day and what lessons gonna be drawn very interesting, story released by the Mccluskey New Service, a piece by Gregg Sergeant in the Washington Post, all which suggests that the Democrats fell, pray,
into the notion, largely because of their results in twenty twelve got Obama reelected that if they could just spit out. Their base and get their base to vote, that Hilary would prevail and that in fact, the story of twenty. Sixteen was the crater ring of a certain time the pillory and the and the fact that there was this small but statistically significant pressure in the states the Trump One that Obama carry, that there is a small but simply of Obama, to trump voters and at this? What the suggested was. This notion that year that the base was settled the democratically was a settled fact and was gonna vote, the way that ever been expected. They would. They voted in two thousand and two thousand and twelve.
Was a false ex set of expectations and that no effort was made to appeal to the white Working class that handed the election white working class people who were so racist and you know, and why its premises that they voted for a woman both in two thousand and two, the disquiet ever apparently being premature, abandoned by the campaign when he eleven, I know converting to well. You know, because that's the cause they're there such white supremacist, that they voted for a bomb anyway, but does it- and you mentioned this before that was the fatal conceit of the Obama campaign- is that they could get elected and we're right by abandoning elements of the new deal coalition. But no other democratic really good right, because it was very specific. Whatever was was very specific to Obama, whatever Obama's appeal was, was entirely specific Obama and the
there's a cautionary example in this two trump witches. Remember Trump got forty six percent, but not forty eight. He got the right voters in pencil. They knew and Michigan and awhile, but he didn't get whenever he didn't Willem we now. Even the majority was three million vote, shot, JIVE Hilary, and his vote may be his vote, but He's gonna need more people to vote for him next time than this time, presumably because Democrat that's, unless they are literally willing to jump off a cliff and destroy their party based on which may happen, and we should talk by that for a minute will come. Acts for some of these mistakes. Just as you know an end, will we we'll figure out that they need to speak to these people enough to not have the crater effect they had in these very importance. We meant what are now swing, states that were not swing states before and if Trump doesn't.
Got gonna win, broaden his message a little bit to talk to the people who aren't just interested hearing how the media sucks. That's that's gonna, be you know important for him, but I think the Democrats we can have a very hard time. Crafting this new message. That's about economic populism, also melded with these kind of boutique identity issues and environmentalism. Your visit there is a sort of lot that they have to weave together. To make that happens. I wrote about this. On Friday, when I was talking about Elizabeth Warren's attack on Barack Obama for taking Wall Street which, by the way, was absolute gibberish. If you actually transcribed at which I doubt it was nonsense, she didn't say We ve been coherent, you talked about how advertising works and that's bad literally the shoes insane, but cigarettes are kind of that in different areas of politics are responding to different incentive structures. Like the this pro life thing was really illustrative,
Apparently, there's a pro life candidate Norma, who got sort of smack democratic Democrat who's who got you didn't, get praised by Bernie Sanders and then Democratic National Committee Chairman Tom Perez sort of said that there are said to explicitly that there is really no home for pro life democrats in the Democratic Party and anti blowsy actually gave him a little snack on the rest over that because she needs a majority and, let's get you, don't get a majority by alienating people, but that's not what tamper, as cares about right now to compress needs money. He rents too raise money from the democratic donor class, and they want a toll we have. Rather, we should push. You prefer homogenous would homogeneous need party and, that's why you have no autopsy and where at least no public autopsy, apparently we're seeing some stuff happen. As this Macleod Theoretical demonstrates the size and the fringes
but if they were to conduct a real, I'm not running about fringes, mayor mainstream there do they just happened to be not official, that it's not like twenty twelve autopsy, where we have a set of recommendations and the damn directive for the party to followed which were which were that ignore because they be contradicted by their actual results, and it would really deflate democratic donor. Here there are two ways of looking at this, one of which is that the secret to Hilary defeat in twenty sixteen was. Vanity that they could reconstitute a the Obama vote of, two thousand and twelve. Almost exactly am a lot of us believe this and that if they do that and that she just didn't have all of it. She got ninety five percent of it that five percent made an enormous difference in in having and having her lose it in that there are two ways of going about this and twenty one of which is to go at the very phenomena that make it possible for that vote to be reconstituted in them in the most obvious. Blatant way would be to nominate.
Another black person at the top of the tickets, so that's one thing But the other thing is that is that they When they look at what, Our problems are. It may be enough to say I care, so it may be I have to say I care, I I hear you. I feel your pain. That that I did not have to say in fact he now in and not to make the off the make mistakes that every care, It now seems to hate great, so Obama did the in other cling to their guns and religion off the record. And got out in two thousand there not not enough to hurt him, but you now basically reflection of something Romney's forty, seven percent off off the record
and I got out- and she said the plausible off the record and it got out- you didn't build that was kind of a on, might mister, but there was an on my mistake that wasn't that he did that he said that in public, without for he wanted people to hear that but I think it's much more important saying your voters, these other voters, they there's their idiots there, any its they're stupid their issues, don't matter or their bad people just what Hilary said so you don't make that mistake, giving more? Who There's literally nothing you were gonna say that isn't going to be to be anodyne rather than punch you or, if you're, going to be punchy, be more punching that last punch, if you're going to say deplorables, go at it like a with a b tree, about it, not don't be like Hilary about it. Like you said, and then, despite the fact I'm gonna do. It and that no a thought that this was by design, the fact that they, they all
oh, and then they backed off. It was the way you're damn right. There deplorable they are horrible. They make me sick disgust and give it may be that At least. She would then have gotten points for, principle or something like that, but I think you, Do the machine this and say I care, I care, I character a care, particularly if after Trump doesn't manage to do anything to help them. Like he's, not gonna bring back the code the industry is not going to bring back the steel industry and for years, and you know basically table he sold. He sold you bill of goods or I really care so I'm gonna make you totally dependent on government and I'm if you what you one, is dependency on government. I'm here, for you know some like that, this, also be beyond the record mistakes, the insane Hilary one of talking about how she's gonna put all co workers out of work.
Right, that's and that's that Israel HANS to certain incentives. On the left about about the environment, but Also, the question of what kind of feel you have so gonna look. Obama was a brilliant politician more votes and no one has ever gotten it'll. Be a long time before someone gets as many votes as he got in two thousand and eight, and he had a feel for this game of saying. You know I'm beyond in the ology, I want to bring people together. You know I even though he didn't mean it, but he had a genius for it. Then Trump hasn't had a genius in some ways, for you know, pressing, a giant idea defending at NATO America's, not gray, we're gonna make it great again and Hilary had nothing whatsoever. Well, I think, as as the book shattered reveal, she had nothing she had nothing. She they didn't know why she was running for president. They had nothing, and so
we need something next time, but if that something is you all sock? now. Unless you want he now, unless you want your children to be in state of taught how to become transgender you'll stay, then you'll them. Then it'll go on the same way, and I think this is that's not that hard to correct for, but I think it's also mentioning that both Obama and Trump were at the centre of political personality cult, to the extent that we have that in the U S and read the people who are susceptible to to that kind of thing, are those people who are feeling disenfranchise, who need something, though, and who are in having their meat needs met, and it makes perfect and said they would go from Obama. Tromp itself
was disenfranchise now after eight years of Obama, four years of Trump. What sensible, intellectually rigorous moderates the kind of yes that's what can they do? That's right, I'll drive you nobody, but there's also, there's also no, I mean, there is also no guarantee that have that but we do want is. Is it of another and other personality cult to come sweeping through our or politics either, but only but that that loud long, all Democrats keep saying is zero change of change over a hundred thousand votes on three states and Hilary would be present, I'm having one with a margin for two and a half per cent, and that's true The question is, if it's a hundred thousand people which is not an insignificant amount of people, even though it sounds like it in an electrode of a hundred- and we know a hundred and thirty two one hundred thirty three million hundred twenty eight, my camera worth a total number is, but What is it that you need to say just of it out just to make them switch back, and can
be that they are here things and seeing things from Trump that they that they can't be seduced away from because in the absence of wild successful policy initiatives. You know it's going to be. I don't know what he's going to do. You know what they're going to do, what what what why they won't be up for grabs now, they're not going to be up for grabs if the party goes the route to end says. We believe only this one thing why it's mine, thought and guess that this this approach that he's taking right now is for the explicitly explicitly for the benefit of the committees that are trying to raise money right now and then, once the twenty eighteen cycle, Rebs up in earnest
Then we're gonna see a pivot and we are starting to see the twenty eighteen cycle materialise. That's a mild, much less clear picture than I think some people anticipate with the announcement of the retirement of Alien Ross Lightning in Florida. The some people are suggesting that this means that it states that an unfavourable environment for Republicans, because she's in a pretty blue district than has been re elected. Many times in the past, and is this like this district now leans democratic with her retirement? But then there are also it doesnt work. Lean democratic. It is now, I believe, I think, even local political, for it has now put it as likely democratic, sounded, very virgin university beginning presently right there. Larry sabotage what a bit. So the reason is that it went. Twenty percent Ilium Ruslan has been represented district for twenty eight years when twenty percent for free
Hilary, no twenty percent. Try, then you have Hilary be shrunk by twenty percent in the district, and that's just the fact of it solely on a rustling in may be retiring because they ve got a couple of poles and it's like. Obviously you can't say that incumbent, it's gonna, Those were maybe she's like. I don't want to spend a year and a half for it. You know em now in a trend in trench warfare, I'm too old and you know it stood at the I've been in politics for forty years now, and maybe I can get up make a little money in an end. You know do whatever I can do otherwise and Republicans as you did, more research on this, which I am sure will get into Republicans and South Florida in southern California that are really trending. Blue We have been going that direction for a long time. They might continue.
Get out. But then you have Democrats in places like Montana, at large district, which is going for a special election to replace interior secretary, ranging and in Zimri thinking, again. I need to watch more television with anybody. Mammy lame is a good guy. Now guys you gotta go I'm. If I read explicit exclusively, I don't buy television and listen to the reader. I dont know how to pronounce anyone's name anymore. It's becoming a real problem. You know I worked a time magazine thirty years ago and whenever there was a politicians name that was that was clearly not easily print answer we actually would put in parentheses, pronounced blank like for any one, because It was presume that people read that they needed some pronunciation guide to somebody's odd name. And then you know no one. Does because that is the media. The lying media are failing, will also, I think, few people now,
understand the pronunciation. They don't, even whose mandate like writing now, wouldn't have like the upside down backwards. Eu recognising it would radically anyone's dinky windy would be zinc. High. Even then, like three anyway. So it in that race there is a rather colorful democratic, plays a guitar, whereas a ten gallon hat and looks like somebody from Montana and he's gonna be passing around with Mitt Romney, which tells you a little something about how these people in Trump country view the electorate to does the alien aroused lightness or getting out, but some Democrats or inching towards Republicans, will remember that in their big special I shall we were talking about just a couple weeks ago, the one that the Democrat John US off got Forty eight percent of the vote in in, in the district of former of now a judge, S Secretary Tom Price that they were public, we were fighting amongst each other did not embrace Trump
Karen Handle, who is the one who can be running against us off, did barely talked about Trump. Is the notion that heard that that district is not a trump district. He want by one percentage point, Ileana, ROS Lehtinen was going to be. It was going to be a vote for Ileana ROS Lehtinen to vote for Trump in addition to the Trump lost by twenty. There are ten that districts with candidates up in twenty eighteen since their republic there up every two years. There are ten districts that Republicans now sit in that Hillary won by more than eight points ten. So if that flips, If all ten of those flip and eight points of the lot of points- and you know one of them- was darrell- I said the the Republican email Serve attack, dog investor-
later and he has now twice barely one one. You know with like Thailand, Haiti is the margins boast and both in twenty four to twenty six team- and you know a trail. Unfavourable travel against Trump will be the thing that maximum maximov Similarly, House Foreign Affairs Committee chairman at Royce, who was also in the district that was, I think, eight percent Hilary over Trump Very nice guy, I've known him for like thirty years of good congressmen and solid, is it would be if the two foreign policy is not viewed as successful Royce will be linked to Trump, not only because there were democrats don't like trumpet, because he will, he will be forced in the position of having to say nice things about trumps foreign policy, which
will join up the democratic base. The question is, in a mid term. Election republicans have turned out from it terms and Democrats didn't during their during me Obama years, but Democrats did turn out in two thousand six, when Republicans did not because they were crushed in depressed loudly by back in New Orleans and Hurricane, but also by the sex scandals pages. You know congressmen chasing male pages around. That's one thing: that really made that a total debacle that was thirty two seats of the Democrats, one in two thousand and six. I believe I believe its thirty two. So the question is kept. Can Democrats can Democrats keep them pads and not go totally insane. Then you have the flipside argument, which is Victor Davis, Hanson. The argument that twenty slash twenty could be one thousand nine hundred and seventy two, that is to say Richard, Nixon
one by an incredibly narrow margin, overshoot Humphrey NICE in sixteen eighty one, forty three percent of the vote here, I'm forgot like forty two and a half Nixon wins, and in seventy till he was the largest landslide american history at sixty two percent against Georgia, Mcgovern's thirty: seven, why it's like things were terrible. Vietnam wasn't going well, we employ impulse, ensued, a wage and price controls. It was all terrible, but the Democratic Party appeared psychotic. That was what happened. They had support you know that there were right and sixty eight- they were supporting massive action, they were being soft on crime, there were being anti american foreign policy and they nominated the most leftwing person ever to run for office and George Mcgovern. You can kind of see that as a Democrats are getting soft on crime. Saw alike, are saying that we
where were over incarcerating people they're going crazy about the death penalty in a lot of places. Now now we're we're in a low crime and we're not new crimes, free we're in a low cry, and so it's not beyond the bounds of problem The Democrats, who should be in a position to kind of crush the jail p m in twenty eighteen and maybe into twenty, could go in the other direction and Mcgovern eyes themselves will look We have this analysis now that says that the Democrats failed because of the because of these voters that went from Obama Trump that diving to adopt a message of economic populism to reach these people nationally, whereas all the activism, although rallies, are not there these, are not rallies about economic populism and and jobs for for poor people these or serve coastal.
Density issues deserve these reserve Hilary supporters where climate change are wearing wacky hats there you know so they say not that they are not going to get this memo. I would also caution that Mcgovern could win. It's not given this assembly that the Democratic Party has to change at all to benefit from a pendulum swings in american public opinion, they could be very comfortable and settle into their liberal activists. Progressive ISM and Donald Trump could be. Popular enough to be seated by a Mcgovern, I liberal absolute, he could. If what is discussed, bears in relation to the lives of the people who vote that's the issue, which is, I think, what what it brings up, in other words the accelerant effect of the protests and in in twenty seventeen, the money that's being raised, nine,
billion dollars raised by Jon Ossoff in the sinner in a congressional race, the fact that they can bring millions of people out into the streets for some of these marches. The fact that they're so focused and Republicans are squabbling amongst each other, with single party rule right with the Senate and the House and the presidency in the hands of Republicans, and nothing is getting done. Even so, they can't get high. You're done, they can't get a clearly. The tax cod is somehow is kind of dead, on arrival trumpets now, Financing will be an infrastructure bill in two weeks, which is ridiculous. Gary cone, though, headed national economic Council is saying that there will be a in our health care and other health care blot again there will have been a health care about according to the Erika which, Shows that you can run Goldman Sachs and apparently be ineffective, had a whirlwind sex. I know nothing about politics. There is not going to be healthcare build this week. There wasn't last week it nothing's getting better on
her front. You know what I lost my train of thought. You said that a Mcgovern could win if if we're talking about why? But my point is that troubles you know a that they still have to do yet. The Republicans have to show that they can function remember the thing about Nixon was he was a minority president with a hostile congress? and he really could say like the Democrats and the that's and Congress, and that are are actually hostile. They do not want America to win this war, they don't want. They don't want me to block up criminals, they don't want. You know they you're, not interested in the things. I trouble you, the silent majority right, that's what that's what that's what he said, I'm saying that Democrats could in theory all this stuff is an accelerant for them, but if they, if they are unable to talk to ordinary people,
Don't care about and gender issues in out. If we talk about it, talking about transgender issues of fifteen or twenty percent of the conversation. Twenty twenty is about transgender issues, Democrats remarkable when the president a way we won't be an agenda in general election, Reimer Aerial, actual they come back, and I think that what happened with having wording activism hasn't been, and I think that what happened with Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton that dominated the primary and it disappeared in the general election. No didn't absolutely did not. Hillary Clinton was forced to stay on the left of the party because she thought but that she needed those voters and she didn't have them in hand so that you know the the this book shattered the first book about the Hillary Clinton. Describes the kind of paranoia, the ultimate Hilary paranoia about not being eight and having to night. Hold down the democratic ideological bay
which was not nail down by the time she by the time she won. The nomination was around their hammering these themes. I requirement right: you isn't happening by retribution all anti democratic international convention, which was about as republic in a democratic way, The convention is I've. Seen in my lifetime. She bill clip, you said you should do Ex Whimsie imply. That was, if I do ex wife gee, I'm gonna alienate the same, there's. Voters member sanders. She was up twenty six points in the Michigan primary and lost polling in Michigan had her winning by twenty five or something like that, and she lost the primary and they didn't know whether or not they were in. She ended up winning the state by point right- So she knew something, even though they hold about how she was so stupid,
had she moved to the lab? Maybe she would have alienated the Sanders voters that she needed without getting enough for the Trump voters she got just what she needed to promote private. On that state, I'm just saying the notion that she can that any democratic and just move to the right is not proven Mitt Romney could not move to the left because he did not have the reply, looking back solidified, he could not move to the centre. Your member, the whole thing where his his and pay me for instance, said this is great. As you know, it's like edges sketch. You win the primary than you shake him up, and then you see over the general and it's like. Oh you know. We basically have to spend three months saying it's not just sketch I'm not address scans. I have principles, I'm severely conservative, you know, and he couldn't do what what what he would. He done. I mean when whether its transgender issues exactly the point is that the activism, the money, the huge crowds, this it's all about diversity.
Inclusive anti climate change, not none of it has. The momentum is not where the the analysis is saying it should be, which is on economic populism. For four though- who feel when they make their leading into economic inequality. Again, I'm in that that was the democratic that they thought that economic inequality was their version of talking to the Trump voter. So now Oh they're, getting about Brok, Obama, making forty thousand dollars for a speech, because that's democratic economic populism, that's bad! He shouldn't like what difference does it make? You are running for office? Grimy can do whatever the hell he wants heat by the way. This is one of the jokes, going totally off topic, so Barack Obama ruins yelling. All Barack Obama got forty five million, that you know the Gulf WAR and it doesn't always a speech. It's terrible right Brok and Hilary
Iraq and Michel together have book advances to the tune of sixty five million dollars. Who do you think gives advances like this? These are multi em the the firms that were big. These are multinational conglomerates. These aren't like it's not like for our Strauss, Girul old City, in a building and owned by one eccentric, rich guy or Charles scrivener I mean these are multinational conglomerates like I can remember who his publisher is, who Obama's publishers and Michel's publishers. They think they have the same one and the same book of same book right the writing a book rights of six. So, basically, together they have sixty five million dollars. That's a much bigger in terms of costs the interests that are four hundred thousand dollars speech, but their versions out while streets, evil
but publishers are good. So that's fine, it's crazy, but what's not crazy is that we have come to an end of another commentary. Amazing I guess commentary these seventeen year old monthly of intellect probity, cultural analysis, and political theory from a conservative forces. How to join us. A commentary magazine dot com worry we'll give you a few free recently asked you to subscribe for one thousand nine hundred and ninety five, which gets you at also and and twenty five gets, you an all- access subscription, Ipad and beautiful monthly magazine in your mailbox eleven times a year or so, Give us a shot. Take a red joy, but we do proud of, go stuff, free, the to read I gotta do is pay some, think about it's, not even two bucks a month give us shot able while the nor Roslin I'm John ports keep the camel burning.
Transcript generated on 2019-12-15.