« Commentary Magazine Podcast

Commentary Podcast: Will Everything Change, or Nothing?

2016-10-24 | 🔗
On the first of this week's podcasts, the COMMENTARY crew (JPod, Abe Greenwald, and Noah Rothman) suggest two scenarios post-election: One in which nothing really changes and Donald Trump remains a leading force in our politics going forward, or one in which everything changes, which brings apocalyptic dangers of its own. Yes, it's another cheerful discussion of our wondrous future from the people who are bottling pessimism but hopefully make you laugh as we do it. Give a listen.
This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
Some regions to the commentary magazine. Podcast today is Monday October. Twenty. Fourth, please, like us, Facebook at commentary. Followers on twitter at commentary follow me on Twitter, I'm at it's a commentary. I'm John put hordes the other commentary to my left, a green. All the senior editor of commentary at a green and to my right. Oh I see Rossman nor Ross Our system online ever at Noah, see Rossman onto her so gentleman,
sixteen days or for fifteen days before the election. Hillary Clinton up the poles by six or seven percent nationally in I believe, eighty three state wide Paul's taken after the first debate or either after the first debate or after the revelation of the access Hollywood tape in eighty three poles, Hillary Clinton state. Why pulse Hillary Clinton leads and eighty two of them Which is why, though, everyone is saying things like you know: it's not over till it's over and the elections are over till it's over. The election is almost certainly over, as we said last week, so that question comes again to what happens after November eighth and we
of two scenarios to float by you and we will explore both of them in one of them. Everything changes after November. Eighth things are fundamentally different from the way they ve been since essentially trumps. Entry into the race in June of twenty fifteen and the other is that nothing changes that the dynamic of Trump versus the GEO p versus Hilary continues apace, with Trump leading some kind of a post election movement in which he attempts to
continue to lead his followers in some kind of political, social experiment in the continued disruption of the american political system. So if we start with the everything changes scenario, we have two different everything changes in there, one of which is trump. Goes away and everything changes. Nobody, you up, ventilator that little that yeah sure, because on the right Similarly, the resigned right. That's not seeing sang the poles are rigged, everything's rigged, down trumps going to awake. The twenty million missing voters from twenty twelve and ride on their shoulders.
Victory. Those who are resigned to defeat r D, just despondent that the apocalyptic sentiment about what the future holds under a Hillary Clinton presidency is unendurable and they talk about political shifts. Demographic shifts, cultural shifts, the end of the of the american experiment. As we know it, the nature of limited government ceases to exist the country as we understood it, the bounty of this country will be squandered and wasted and our children will be scrambling for the scraps of Asia of a future of want and to an extent. Perhaps some of that is is
and up and in a lot of things you have to do in order to convince yourself to support somebody who is manifestly unfit to command american troops and in and took command the economy. This lies are widespread. Rights in this line of discussion is reflected not only of the grassroots level but, of course, at the at the level of very small number of people who are providing some kind of intellectual ballast for the Trump movement, meaning the people at american greatness dot com many other other sites, where they are they are saying that a vote for Trump is necessary because, whatever his extreme deficiencies whatever follows rubies oh, powerless, that there is no excuse not to do whatever you can the flight up from the flight. Ninety three right over here:
but people who don't know what that is. That was a in anonymous essay written by somebody with a latin eight pseudonym who were contended that, like flight. Ninety three: we are the passengers on a doomed, and we have a moral obligation to storm the cockpit in order to take For this plain now, we don't know how to landless plain we might crash and die, but the alternate. Is to crash and die no matter what so we have a better chance. Of storming the cockpit when taking a chance on Trump, then to simply say quietly alike, Hindu cows and accept a right which, of course, the analogy aside from being grotesquely poisonously offensive is preposterous because from what we know a flight. Ninety three- the issue was not trying to take over the plain and landed. It was that the passengers on flight, maybe three knew perfectly well tat. They were going to die, but that they had somehow figured out hearing other stuff that probably the plane was gonna be flown into the car. You know into
into the capital building or something like that and that they needed to crash it before so the flight. Ninety three analogy is either her Hilary clash of crashes, the plane or weak crash the plane, the inward alters the plane crash. Nonetheless, that I don't want to be too of the latest here, because this this is not only the ground at what he was talking. Why not, then, that the notion that everything changes for the worse after January twentieth is not entirely unfounded to review the record of this administration and the the collapse of faith and american institutions resulting entirely from the way in which. Every lever of government has has comported itself over the course of the Obama presidency and compromised itself in order to sustain governmental norms that that
the president has been shifting. Well, however, we're talking, we are bending executive branch, not about welded, either hungering open and in then the court, for example, has two components self in a way that states that isn't so it doesn't work comport with this matter, I don't look. I don't want to. I don't want to make too much fun of the notion that a Hilary clip The presidency is going to be bad for the United States I believe that a Hillary Clinton presidency will be bad for the United States, because the and Tropic. Forces within the Democratic Party incline towards ever greater statism an imperial hesitancy behaviour and the use of the regulatory, We state to impose effectively
legislation that has not passed through by our representative system and and the possibility that a supreme that a Supreme court without liberal majority will rubber stamp this advance of the regulatory state of now problem with that. The only problem that I have with this entire argument is the notion, that America is the a historical and profoundly a historical notion that America is finished because you know the presidency goes to one party rather than the other. Well, I'm, and also in it just just to just sort of further make the apocalyptic argument before we also continued to shoot down we have seen in it. You, in addition to two Obama terms that have that have brought about everything you describe the this allows
She has revealed the very worrying in unhindered. Side. This election has revealed the very worst in terms of institution drift and decide honesty and Collusion collusion in ways that that that seem, it's you like something transformative, would have to happen for their for there not to be a sort of political apocalypse. But apocalypse is the wrong about the apocalypse is don't happen. Terrible things happen government, you know systems, subsystems, collapse or replaced by other things, but you know the apocalypse by definition, hasn't happened and will not have there. The problem with this argument, as I say, is that while there are
as a contradiction at the heart of Trump ISM. The contradiction is this: the trumpet speaking for a silent majority that once things otherwise and that a minority is rigging. The system in this, The fact of the matter is five out of the last six elections. Liberals have gotten the liberal, carries, got more boats. The conservative candidate conservatives have held ass the idea, This is a centre right country or country, there's more rights than it is left and that there is going to be some point at which that argument, no longer gonna hold water, that that that conservatism is, is a distinctly minority opinion in the country. Not that liberalism is a majority opinion, but that it has. Four adherents, the party that represents it, has more voters and that, except for corrective mid term elections in which the country
The party out of power seem to exist to put a brow. On the ambitions of the Europe of pro proponents of an ever larger state that The country has taken a different turn after the close of the cold or and and and and the drop in crime the two major things that held that convinced the body of the american people, that the Democratic Party and that liberalism itself did not have answers to the most pressing problems facing the world. Conservatism now has that crisis, because it does not seem to have answers and not that I think liberalism does. But liberalism promises to take care of you and to sort of sea to your difficulties and aware conservatism offer is we want a free walk to do whatever it is? You can do best into and to give
you larger balance of personal liberty. To make your own mistake, if their mistakes- and maybe the national fabric is different, because that was a more appealing message. A couple of generations ago than an apparently as now that that the safety net. You know people want there to be an american safety net to protect the least of us, and now they want to safety net to protect themselves as well and that's a whole different, the standing of the country, but so, if that's happening than the apocalypse has already happened in this in these terms of herds, like you know Trump, who could somehow magically get Trump elected under these conditions, and he cannot fight the tide of a change in the american care
after he remarked, Zeb and he is represent over the different fashions, like will don't help them help the help these. What you know, don't you know, don't help big business help. You know don't be: don't give welfare here give welfare over there now I sense were not alleviating the concerns of the apocalypse now, but I will now I want to alleviate the concerns of the apocalypse voter, which is that nothing ends. Okay, so nothing hens. There was a point when it was thought both in the Eightys and the Ninetys actually that Liberalism was dead there. Had no answers for anybody that everything was that everything was going. The other direction that even when a democratic liberal president was elected and Bill Clinton. He was forced essentially to end his term as a moderate conserve of passing welfare reform in agreeing to a balanced budget, and go shading over its budget and go into war in Kosovo,
I'm doing all these things that you know you would have thought would be enough, the to a Democrat and so the triumph and saying the arabic government was over that the triumph of it is at least was complete. Well so depends swung back and the pendulum swung back, what's more in the face of em up of a moment in time, that was nice, Levin that seemed again too deeply confirm. Concern but ideas about how the world works on what needed to be done, and then Iraq came along Iraq was a disaster and conservative manage. Of the House and Senate and politically the house start. To contain seeds of dangerous corruption, one of the interesting parallels and analogues and twenty sixteen people are talking about. Much- is the congressional election of two things sick, so the Gratulation two thousand six in the house representatives everything was
bad for badly for Republicans, but they were holding on, they were holding the line, they are holding the line and then, at the end of that were at the beginning of September, a sex scandal pop involving a cumbersome they mark fully, who had been have proposition whatever Malian turns and the bottom fell out of. And then that this followed, along with various other forms of Congress, of of problems with congressional with with congressional House leaders and the bottom fell out because of this moral taint and Republicans lost thirty two seats and control of the House fully Hollywood Access, Hollywood tape in this reckoning. If things go like this, and that is the mark fully scandal of twenty twenty, sixteen here's a counter argument-
to use your own narrative about Bill Clinton. Bill Clinton was the first democratic president to win after three consecutive losses, and he did so on a reform platform, which was the deal see. He was going to run as a centrist. No not a liberal, not a progressive, but very much a centre left Democrat from the south, which was something olive groves- are just centre centre and her. Why did he went and governance that until nineteen ninety five, when he had to work with a republican Congress and when he was essentially forced to run on the deal took to govern as he ran on the deal see platform so In our view, there is that Republicans that have to embrace the Rome deal see they have to moderate from the kind of brand of conservatism that they ve been running on prior to that Trump and then during Donald Trump. They have to make some sort of a break with all that and what are they? Gonna do returned to mint round the isn't I mean that
seem like it would be. The the deal see course here so remember what Clinton did so that the high politics, an area without like certain, came in- and this is why it's interesting to go back and look at the past. Clim came in the The cold war was over, we had won the Cold war and the wallet come down, and you know the issues that Republicans used against Democrats to help them win in blue states like New Jersey, and Maryland and other places like that, which George H W Bush one nineteen. Eighty eight were things like capital punishment, the crime way. You know, Michael Dukakis, was opposed to capital punishment said he wouldn't who seek the death penalty for his wife's no rapist murderer and then a ninety, maybe two famously or infamously Bill Clinton went flew to organs,
to preside over the execution of Billy Re Rector, a you know, someone who had been convicted of murder, who was by all accounts mentally challenged and who, at his last meal said he didn't want to eat. His power because he wanted to save it for later, so not only so Clinton in order to make the point, he was sewing. He was not a classic Democrat went, and you know put this put this guy to death. You know something it's almost impossible to imagine a Democrat doing for years or eight years earlier so or now, so he was James Carville said when they won the ninety two election there had been the supposed electoral law that Ronald Reagan had had had created for the Republican Party in which it
the states are usually one plus the deep south and that because they ve been eight because Clint had been able to pick, have able to win some of the states in the deep south and thus break the electoral walk. But Carville said we didn't break that lock. We picked it It was still the case in my in the nineties that the country and the vote, or a sort of inside the election were more socially conservative than they were urban, or vainly liberal, right and sound. But things, don't stay the same and things change and cans of governance in this country, in the form of George W Bush was widely view to have been a failure by two thousand and eight that he had he had mishandled Iraq, he had mishandle Katrina and that he was mishandling. The financial meltdown as it happened all, which was a great benefit to Obama.
Who, when, as a liberal, in a way that no one had run as a liberal in american history and one because there was no conservative, successful, conserve counter argument in two thousand and two the notion that it was time to try something different and that something different was university. College campuses, liberalism that had been basically developing this theory. For you now for twenty five years, but how America should be run, but anything now what's what's part of what gives part of the apocalyptic senses at after two terms of that kind of presidency, I think you can say it's proven to also have been a failure. Yet there had the bounced back because of Trump hasn't happened on, isn't just political. This sentiment, it's also cultural rights. The notion that our art culture has Courson down from certainly has a contributor hasn't helped by is primarily the result of cultural liberalism becoming the de facto
Baseline american sentiment in in not just make media, but all cultural all shared cultural events, and that this trend is only going to accelerate under Hillary Clinton right, but the problem there again is trump. So what you get is you have the condition under which a reformist, a a reformist republican candidate could have eaten Hillary Clinton, lunch in theory and twenty sixteen, except that republican voters were a plurality of republican voters were not interested in that were not we're not in some sense hungry enough and pay enough by defeat and remember the defeat of the Democrats and ninety two was so severe. People forget this so wasn't just that they lost three consecutive elections and in it by aid. Ninety two, like the deadlock,
they lost him. Any foreign Aviate Carter was from seventy six to eighty, but that was a fluke. Nixon had won in sixty eight. He one forty three percent of the vote when he got sixty two percent in seventy two Carter and Ford Carter won by a point in seventy six Reagan, one by ten in eighty and by eighteen, in aid four and Bush one by eight point. Five in eighty eight nationally, the Democratic Party had been decimated for twin form over the course of five elections. With the post Watergate election, the only flourish, one that they almost lost. They knew perfectly well how there they had learned TAT. They were, it was beaten into them. Finally That they had to change or die at the national level and by the way there were signs present that they were going
get hammered. Finally, at the congressional level, which they had not really been Publican Party in twenty fifteen, as Trump arose, has had had had no such sense of its That is that, because of the mid term, elections triumphs and ten and fourteen. This notion that was promulgated, that the country was still a conservative country in that Obama was the intro, Open Obama was the Nano Obama, was the fluke not day that there were enough people gold by the idea that that the country belonged to them and had been stolen, whereas in fact that the stock Free was that you know the country. He had changed somewhat and that as the twenty thirteen Republican as he said, the party, at least to alter its demographic course. Just as of
simple matter of math and logic. If it was going to compete at a national level and instead, what the doubling down was of every single facet of the Republican Party that had failed to take account of the changes in the american electorate will every single facet right so so Trump is on track to get the lowest number of latino votes of any chemical he's going to get one thousand eight hundred and seventeen. Sixteen percent of the latino vote. You know and of course, one of the things that's horrifying about that from a if your republican Party official is getting people to bounce back, you know presume, particularly if their first time, voters like getting them to crossing go back. The other way is not so easy, particularly if they decide that this is a matter of kind of
per in solidarity with their own people in their parents. Grandparents and their traditions, and all that so Was the Dublin down on the idea that that the white vote- and we heard this explicitly twenty four ten to fifteen, that Trump was going to win because the downward trend in white vote from seventy eight two. Seventy four, seventy two percent more could be rested and indeed reversed, because he was going to speak to them in a way that no one had ever spoken to the white voter before well. When you type but the hunger and the one thing you can say about Trump supporters is that they were sort of Hungary to the point of delirium but there, but there their pursuit of sustenance, was it was the wrong audible, like war have spelled out right now, but they didn't get. But you know they also didn't they. They weren't. As Noah's written repeatedly. They weren't satisfied with the meal that they were good, and which is to say the least argument here, which is that about
the one he had sixty seat so a majority- and you know a commanding house majority and oversight. Months. He passed massive amounts of legislation and then he lost the house and He lost the Senate and from March of twenty ten until the president, until the present Obama, with the exception of lead of red regulatory action, has been unable to advance a single liberal cause from his perch as president, that is an enormous accomplishment, that was an accomplishment of a republican House in a republican Senate. That was, you know that was. Turning the playing around to say nothing of the fact that he also decided over the loss of nine hundred and ten legislative seeds, that's
state. That's good country, why young dedicating his post presidency to rebuilding the democratic parties alarmed lest Roy representatives of origin, so that but. Something. Weird happened, it's interesting. Let it happen, and this is what the post presidential post you know, reckonings are going to have to deal with, which is that these victories, Which were substantial and which speak ultimately to what we would consider classic conservative principles, which is that you, you part of the purpose of concerns, is to stand athwart history shouting stop right. There was that was gleam of bucklers formulation at the beginning of the publication of National Review worked, but A lot of the people who are aligned with the with the report
in party in media and an end in an even in power. There. Everything like that does the idea that it was better to say It was failing, then, that it works and that the failure was not be, it was not the part of the changing nature of the american people and the fact that some form of reconciliation had to take place between conservative emissions and the public's general ideological direction, but was a disease. Is within the republican Party that had to be extirpated, that its leadership was cowardly, that if it only did what its most served of members wanted, somehow Obama could have been stopped and things could have been reversed and conserve legislation could have been passed and it is madness it was madness. While it was going on in twenty eleven, the first outbreak of this madness, which was the government shut, in the summer of twenty eleven. When there was
strategy after the shut down? The idea was we're gonna shut the government down to make Obama, pay and reverse things and and win or had already known from sixteen years earlier and ninety many five that the longer the government was shut down, that the greater boosts the likelihood that that the public was going to blame that Congress and not the president's further the shutdown and then in twenty thirteen, when TED crews led the government shut down again, the idea was he lately I've been shut down to force Obama to repeal Obama care which was insane and was not a strategy and it just happened, and then it kind of petered out and ended when somehow Obama said no, I'm not I'm not going to I'm not going to retract. Care, and that was the end of that and these fail.
There is which were failures on their part were held to be somehow failures of the republican leaderships part I mean so so We found ourselves- and this is the question of what whether everything will change or another will change, because Trump loses. Brave and say he loses I a gigantic margin which are in my case of my thinking, would be larger than Mccain two levels. You know we haven't seen really, since you know the 80s or 70s. You know eight to two hundred and fifteen points or something like that. So he so he loose by that amount and the loss total in the House and Senate go to the Democrats, and it is a personal defeat for him and a shameful defeat for him. An a and a r l at revelation that everything that you tried to do was wrong and that everybody who said that he was bad was right and all that and ensure,
Amen, humiliation, he may rage and rage and scream and be like King Lear. You know on the Heath, but it's not gonna help. Everybody knows that he's a failure and somehow he kind of just fades and then the republican power He goes through a process by which it is going to decide what to do either prevent the rise of another trump or to reconcile the trump voter. With the regular voter, whenever ok, so that's the everything changes still formula for them, The party that nothing changes formula is its November ace and Trump loses and he doesn't lose by a margin that is so humiliating and then he never goes away. He's gonna run again and twenty twenty he's gonna stick to it here, gonna continue to fire at Paul Ryan and whoever is the Senate minority or much already leader after
November, eighth, assuming probably cinicos democratic and which case Mitch Mcconnell will probably no longer be the leader of the party and he fires of Demi fires and everybody who ever was mean to them and mean to him and he fires it down ticket. He tries to get Jeff Flake of Arizona his most. You know, because most of the staunchest republican opponent within the party tries to get him defeated in twenty eighteen. Runs again for Senate Arizona, allergies. Senators asked right was fastened until twenty and he you don't need to serve does this kind of search and destroy mission, and he set tries to get people to run, to take over seats on the Publican National Committee that don't go in his direction and like that or or this happens without him in the sense that he goes away.
The forces arrayed behind him manage somehow to coalesce into a new t parties movement that takes over the party that the tea party morphs into the Trump Party without Trump and its grass roots power takes over the world. The party, which is it would just be a continuation of everyone's happen from fifteen to sixteen onwards, I mean I think, even if does, he feel never runs again. I think populism will now be incorporated into his professional brand and in that sense he's he's going to contain. B? I sat on this not yesterday. He wanted to keep doing rallies forever, but I mean that's all. That's a wish
I think the second scenario makes a little bit more sense in this. In the in the sense of the organs he will be very resistant to change and that a lot of people who were invested in this current system of very resistant to change, but I mean it kind of defies belief that somebody who loses by a margin- that's probably gonna, be bigger than that Romney's. Just shy of four point. Loss won't have the stink on him. That is going to be difficult to get off. I mean that somebody who loses by the margins we expect him to lose, by which I mean no matter how much he braes against. It will be discredited too, of the vast majority of of the vote to whom he was appealing, will always be people who hang onto his ideas, but that doesn't mean they're gonna there were lost, but there's also gonna be people who are mad at the Republicans. Conservatives who didn't get behind snow, so they already are, but then you're gonna have then the anger is gonna. Go both way right, and this is the big change
because one of the stories of twenty fifteen and twenty sixteen in seeing the weakness of the Republican Party and the establishment or whatever that you now, whatever the prevailing. The non you know destroy the Republican Party to save it. Forces was terror and terror of tromp and from the moment that he ran and start leading in the polls rights previous, the heavy currency and all these other people were terrified. The trump would run third party. If you didn't win so they have to get him to write a big, a pledge they wouldn't run and then and then the other candidates terrified to attack him, because he would attack them were his voters would be hurt, would be offended so TED crews, tweet things like I think, Donald Trump is just terrific and you know every this is I'm not running against tromp, I'm running against market Ruby, I'm running against job Bush, and why don't want to talk about Trump? I want to talk about the future.
Wasn't until you know the AIDS said sixth, seventh debate that the other candidates really except for Carly, fearing that turned on Trump and when after trumps Juggler- and this is the nature of the way this race has gone throughout Trump wins and he still is only one. Forty five percent of the republican primary vote and there's all this talk about a about a channel to him and everything is about fear. You can't challenging because you're fearful of what he'll do your fearful, what his voters will do, your fearful. What will happen if there's a contested convention they'll be riots they'll, be this hill. As a riot he'll be he's happy to have violence happen. So you can't let that happen. So, basically, and here's an analogy that I resist, I don't know, I'm trying to think of a way to do it so that you don't get that kind of out of context. You now you know. Like giving trumped somebody to Hitler. But It is. It is like
negotiating with a terrorist that, as you know, or authority, so he takes the Republican Party hostage. You negotiate with him in the negotiation never end, so first, it's negotiate. Do he won't leave the party than its negotiate that he won't foment violence the convention when it negotiates he won't. You now go. After blue down ballot Republican Kennedy, I will attempt to help them win every single time these negotiations happen with him. He does. Edward isn't he wants to do because he understands that hit that his rivals. Are you know, spineless and weak kneed? that and there's nothing that he could do would finally turn them off. That's why I see this as less unlikely to Material because in my estimation we will have any evidence of the CIS yet, but in my estimation, when he loses and he's gonna lose by a fairly substantial margin, all of these threats will fail to materialise. There won't be trumps borders out on the streets, rioting.
Now a bilateral, don't know and what Paul Ryan who will lose their careers as a result of their not racing Donald Trump. In fact, a lot of republicans are going to outperform Donald trump them in the pool, suggesting Nl a Republican is somewhat the voters wanted to support. They just didn't want to support trump, so it will be him in him alone that carries the burden of twenty sixteens losses, but Do you see his support? Who's coming round to to do this and instead of an anti trumpery Opie in four years time. Yes, but here is the question not a man not initially initially lowbrow Olano, propose this. You know they'll all accepted Paul Ryan's can, after run for speaker again in December, assuming the Republicans hold the house. If you run the hull house who cares whose main later he wants its, I guess unto you can have it, but let's AIDS, this speakership, so
You think, isn't gonna be a Trump sponsored effort to deny Paul Ryan speakership. After remember he as the only consensus possible Kennedy he didn't want to be speaker. He didn't want to run for speaker out when banner quit. He will keep. He wanted Kevin Mccarthy to be Speaker, He wanted to stay house ways and means he was cut sort of forced into it, and now it's gonna be the test of whether or not the party. This lunatic idea that Brian is somehow I sell out. Liberal is now going to become and what, if what, if it doesn't happen, but there are, you know Ninety five votes against him and the republican caucus, as we have seen no indication- that's gonna happen. We don't have anybody in the freedom clock as the most insurrection, every element of their house republican Conference, suggesting they're interested The job Louis Gomes has said, he's gonna vote for speaker next year. It is all located on the idea that Donald Trump will lose and he will rage
against the machine and everybody will still follow along with him, I see lose. I see rage. I dont see anybody following along. Ok, so that's the that's the every. Changes scenario in the sense that Post Trump ISM will cause kind of reversion to the Republican says, at least organizational, and then we come to twenty eighteen, and there are two questions there. One is: will there as was the case with the tea party. Will there be efforts to unseat Republicans in primaries by insurrectionists candidates in case trompe and candidates who will say, we need new leadership because you're all losers and you all make bad deals with Hilary Hilary is evil, particularly if, in twenty seventeen
president, Hilary does in fact make common cause with Paul Ryan and whoever the republicanism running the Senate and they passed three or four different things in order to get out serve like get out of the cycle of total blockage. That Obama created really the case. The Publican squares fallacious. But you know that that that she actually comes them wanting to make certain types of budget deals. Maybe what wanting to fix? Oh Mamma care and try some things in the world in the repair of the healthcare system as to avoid the deaths spirals of the ex changes going under, and maybe some entitlement reform, and maybe some immigration reform right. So if that happens, then you're going to have this body of Laura groom opinion. That says everybody who voted for that must be destroyed and if all of this happens in
where some of this happens in that way, the real question is going to be whether the Republican Party itself can stay together because, as we talked about last week, if I write about in my essay and commentary now, the truly forgotten republican voter There are ten twelve fourteen, twenty million people republican voters who are not gonna vote Republican again. If the party goes stays as a Trump party and the question is, are they gonna become Democrats, I doubt it so where did they go? You know, I think there will be that of insurrection, Harry MID Term GNP bid. I think it's they're not going to be technically trump. I think by then they will be flying under yet another flag emulate sort of this rolling group that was the tea party that now it's there there there trumpery him in the end and I think by then they they may be calling themselves something else and sometimes Reagan call themselves something else. But if the issue set, is
migration, tray ride and sort of woe I don't know just a general idea that you know Hilary is evil Incarnate rang. Who must who must be? You know whatever whereas the rumour the whole thing about the tea party was yours, bending too much money too much money is being spent. You just spent two and a half trillion dollars and new money right can afford it. We can't afford it your you ve gone insane? Stop it. Stop it stop it, and then you forgotten constitutional principles, rhetoric, but stop it like demon, pass legislation, don't do this you're, like riding roughshod over our system, and we are the poor pure trying to preserve the good work more. The sis- now, whether the tea party voters as a whole. Where that we're sophisticated to understand that message. That was, nonetheless the true message of the tea party was and the reason it was successful. Was that Obama, nationalized the auto industry past. You know
trillion dollar bill in our past Dodd Frank, past Obama, care and suddenly every was going. Woe that's a lie. That's a whole lot of crap that you just and after we lost thirty five percent of our stock market value and our homes are in the two hour underwater like What are you crazy level, but that was a sophisticated masters in the end, sophisticated message of the tea party, which I don't think we can ignore the fact that a lot of people thought Brok Obama was a socialist Muslim from Kenya. Ok, but fair so and that element right has risen to the top of this new, movement, and I can say I said it's going to keep rolling along and when you know It should sell route to whatever the southern question that rises there is will can the republican Party. This is the everything change argument. The other way can the Republican Party hold together or will will for the first time in a hundred
sixty years in the United States? Will the two party system be challenged? by a serious third party effort that wasn't in the case of the other third parties? Generally speaking, isn't a one man show isn't Teddy Russia with a bull moose or Perot with the Reform Party or even Robert left, with the progressive party? Will there be? You know the conditions under which Trump ISM is not somehow calmed or becalmed we'll make it impossible for the non trump voter and remember we're looking at what are we looking at the latest Paul's in terms of republican participation in the trunk vote read like below. Or eighty percent. Now right, it depends on the Paul, even though, even though the terrible one over the weekend from what Abc news not watching both ABC News Tracking pole headed at eighty three percent of Republican, supporting them
ok but nonetheless that number would be. You know, that's that's a gross ten point drop from previous years, and it would be a net like fourteen to fifteen point drop off what you should normally expect that fifteen percent of voters who will not vote now, There was a time one thousand nine hundred and seventy two and Nixon won sixty percent of out when thirty two forty percent of Democrats voted for Nixon, like you know, There was the party. A party loyalty was much more elastic. Now, it's not like. You really expect that those people that seventeen percent republicans work. We're not going about four trump are going to vote for Hilary, I mean some some percentage
ninety five percent of them, maybe will vote for healthy. Seventy five percent of them will stay home, but that's why I suspect that that the two parties systems destruction scenario that youth identified, as does not in the offing. Any noted how this is very much a personality based effect when you have a really strong their party challenge. It is built around a very strong personality in that strong personality in this since Donald Trump, in his absence, there's gonna be coalitions that will represent. I think that, through the hearty rises, I'm saying Trump takes over the Republican Party and the third Party is that Non trump party- I'm saying that the scenario I'm laying out is the trumps: take over the Republican Party proceeds a pace and that there is a whole bunch of people who are going to say this party is not my party and meanwhile the Democratic Party is
further and further left because of sand real quick, because these we're talking about coalitions rights accorded the two party system is robust because one party abandoned relation in the other. Picks up. Democrats abandoned the way working Class Republican Party picked it up. That's happened a lot over the course of the country's history. So we're talking about what these conservatives who lost voters. What are they care about? They care about free trade. They care about robust defence of american interests abroad that could they care about a lack of identity, politics, a gala tyrian, isn't that is a kind of a broad constituency. And imagine that both parties would issue those voters forever well, but is problematic because some of that really go entirely against the democratic basis positions and that's that's a real problem, but you know also looking at this purely in a vacuum, it else. So much of this is going to depend on what kind of challenges the country's interface between now and of completely unforeseeable things challenges from abroad and domestically that that that could cause all
sorts of new, strange, bedfellows or or will, of course, color. I mean, if you think about the last eight years, it is astounding how much of what we obsess over is new That's what's different, like the issue set that govern the country's major concerns from let's say nineteen sixty two nineteen. Ninety me was: it was extraordinarily consistent right. It was what our posture toward the Soviet Union in the cold war. What are we going to do about fighting crime and in the domestic collapse it states and what is America's P you're going to be in the wars that it fights and in the growing fight between cultural liberalism and cultural conservatism, that was the that was it. That was the that was, The issue set everything folded into that issue said.
Two thousand and nine onwards we have the right is of ISIS. We have a migrant crisis, you know overtaking Europe, we have the. European Union. You know potentially break which doesn't sound like it's about us Cyber war, which is going to ramp up now right the rise of the sort of openly unpatriotic left, and the rise of an unpatriotic right by the way which, as you know, are black lives matter and calling Capron EC kneeling. Instead, we are standing up for the national anthem on the one hand, and then serve this trump we live in a nightmarish. Does disgusting place wit, you know that's all rigged on on the on the right and rights of its ice. We have and then domestically like we had you now deep water, her. At deepwater horizon
We have you no hurricane sandy, we have you know we have possibly coming in the Hilary years collapse of state pension systems that drives states like Illinois in California, states into bankruptcy. There is no small. Now I don't bombing here I was last night was missing. I was missing the elephant in the room, which was a bomb care and these are all new. These are new issues. These are all fret and there's no reason to think that this serve chronic stability there's represent by the rise of these new issues is gonna. Go away. It's probably if it's gonna accelerate You know that we have all these problems. Obama started that Hillary is gonna have to deal with like the IRAN deal, which Donnelly she says she's for, but which is gonna, be talk about. The
our negotiating with terrorists thing, so IRAN is every three months good at issue, yet another provocation, and yet another provocation and another dare right what will be talking. I mean I mean next thing: that's the hacking, the cyber stuff General Hilary could be our first cyber hawk president right yet been change. The conversation entirely changed the debate. You know: she's gone hair at war powers against iranian Proxy Morocco Bomb, rightly in it just road and secured more powers, resolution to fight the Hutus and Yemen witches and ran funded and back militia. That's been firing sophisticated anti ship missiles at our Navy by the way for quite a while now, which is something that isn't getting a lot attraction. But I don't know, maybe she'll be a re over a healer. Slightly he still really so the divisions in this country, I mean the other thing to be said:
is that the general larger point that everybody knows is happening and that nobody knows how to deal with what happened. This kind of general loss of an american common american civic culture that expresses itself and the fact that people have to differ different. Ways of retaining information and getting facts. The of martial in their own cause and and that you know of live wisdom in some ways, far more than conservatism now is a kind of cultural signifier to people that you know that that is totally stick and that every part aspect of your life has to be a reflection of a set of attitudes that excludes everybody who might think even slightly differently from you on matters like faith worm, Oh you how you, how you handle your face. You know in a more diverse society and all that and the collapse of
The culture Hillary Clinton seems to me you, meekly ill suited and remember that was one of the things that Obama promised both an oak. We're, not the blues. Eight throughout the red States where the United States he was beyond this. He was a unified, nodded diviner turnout, of course, to be total horse plucky, but there are. As the he knew, that that was of a winning message. Hillary Clinton, who somebody whose entire political career as an individual, has been based on the idea that she is the most hated person by a lot of other people who are in a conspiracy against her novelette dissimilar, took the line that Trump it has taken and will would continue to take if he and that she is somehow gonna be in apple Where she is going to have to marshal this civic, Ultra, that she has helped the straw in order to help lead the three out of a Morass
is science fictional there's no way she is the person who can do that unless she's, it turns into a totally different persons present. The most bizarre elements of the general election campaign has been watching bereft Republicans, who feel abandoned by them party convince themselves to a brace Hillary Clinton who, not eight months ago, declared that she was most proud of Republicans making Republicans her her. The issue before right after ran, it was Republicans rather vague way. Fewer what's interesting again is that their seem to me to be way fewer of these people. The Republicans, whoever braced Hilary Than was the case say with Republicans who embraced her husband and ninety ninety two: there were in dozens of republican intellectuals and thinkers and stuff like that. Who said they want a.
Bush, a lot of which had to do with bushes stance towards Israel and other things, and you know, wet with went with Clinton, Bill Clinton and works really disappointed by him, particularly first two years I mean I can count on me now. One hand may be to the number of Republicans than that that have like affirmatively and openly. You know, endorsed endorse tiller and remember, like in two thousand and eight in old, Joe Liebermann, endorse John Mccain. I mean that was still a thinkable. Proposition yeah. You dont have Jeff Flake, saying that he is going to vote for Hillary Clinton of Costa Mackay Jolly Minority decided he was running and twenty twelve, but I mean you, don't have any you don't have any idea of a couple of congressmen, Congressman Upstate New York, saying he was gonna vote for four Hilary, yet Bush administration officials, officials
elected Yeldo, although again, not not that month, unimpressible text, so I've just struck by the fact that there are that there are in fact so so few Lytton Republicans in it. Because she's really doesn't have anything to what. What is it that she offers little, that she's not tromp immediately You seem to have you seen her commercial with a woman, Who says I am. I have missed starkly republic voter, but this year I am voting for Hillary Clinton because I can vote for dollar four percent. Some attempt to that would mean that she's entries that that that's it commercial that feature a republican voting and who think she's gonna live up to this promise when she's an office who thinks she's, gonna governed by the centre will hear reforms with. Do you know who will who's, gonna craft, actual coalitions behind big centrist reform legislation, she's gonna pursue Barack Obama strategy on steroids, she's going to go out there and rail against obstructionist Republicans and rail against this back.
Thinking minority of conservative paranoia paranoid. Critics of hers and she's gonna be pursuing broke upon the strategy of division than ever, because she's so unpopular, because she has no mandate, although, although you could say That if she were a visionary which clearly isn't- and if this were an alternate universe, which clearly is not, she could look at Richard Nixon in nineteen sixty eight and say the Republican Party is fracturing as the Democratic Party fractured and sixty eight between the walls, sites and Humphrey Ike's, and I can run in twenty twenty I can do things that are going to reach across the aisle and take republican voters and make them my voters. What did Nixon? Do we pass the EPA? You know
He did a lot of peace negotiating despite the fact that people them seem to remember that he also proud the Kyoto, the war in a way that was it he did not sign on with the Anti WAR Hippy Buddy did it, but he, but he was response. This? Is the dead and the others think and put in and and and thereby it so that the analogy here would be that Trump win have trouble how and sixteen and trumpet the nominated twenty twenty and it s Is your cards right and places where the centre she could she could cleave she could destroy? She could help destroy the Republican Party for a generation at the at the national level. Here's Hilary problem party hates her to credits, are not fond of hill around at hand and where there are a lot of Nixon either, I'm not sorry more dogmatically progressive than they have been in general. I agree, and I dont, and I dont think that this is a real strategy that I can even serve come up with, except there are a couple of things:
it could happen where she you know like decides. Budgetary responsible can she looks at though she looks at the you know. The Victoria falls of the federal budget that was to come and twenty twenty eight and she sees When she sees the need for entitlement reform, she wants to fix Obama care. She actually would be ok with a more rational immigration reform. That's that that she could seduce Republicans into an she was hawkish on foreign policy. Now not all of that could you know the effect that it would have on pushing the Republican Party into trumps arms and leaving tens of millions of republican voters totally out in the cold with no protection, and so I say that's where the possibilities for third party, if there is no possibility for third party, that's the new parties, the Post Republican Party and Trump as the old republican Party, or
She could somehow secure the support of those voters. I don't know how, I don't see that its anything that's in her can, for there is one thing that we learn from the Wikileaks stuff. It's that she is as empty a suit We think she is on policy and that their all dancing around her and her palace court. Just you know all there too sing about is who's, got money who doesn't have, but why do we say about this? Let's attack this reporter, who says she's an empty suit because she's an empty suit, but I think she's going to be forced to veer from certain Obama policies like the ones you mentioned in the end and Tpp as well, But- and she now think she knows that, but I think she's, ray these these these these, if it's from Obama as sort of efforts in in his direction,
but look, I'm just I'm fixing on fixing what what I'm I'm ensuring his legacy, but doing these things. She's gonna be in a very peculiar position here. If she wins the house and seven. She will win it to win the Senate by one vote and she will win the house by three right. So it's so Obama's power in two thousand and eight came from the fact that there have been a wave election, two thousand six followed by way of election, two thousand eight, both in them in the democratic direction that gave that would have yogurt They gave him a free hand. She has not can have a governing majority, even if she wins the House and Senate the only thing they can really do the house. The Santa can do under those conditions when chuck structural measures, the majority leader, is break the filibuster end, the filibuster so that the centre can pass legislation, and then every Democrat is going to have to vote for in the house. Can, after all, for every
single piece of legislation win it by one or two hoots. You know can't be sick, can't be out. There can't be a contested seat and they'll probably be five or six contested seats throughout the first quarter, which is usually what happens in congressional races. You know whether particularly close elections, and she you're gonna have to make deals, a cry the aisle Obama didn't have to when he was? passing his mammoth legislation, which is the reasons that him he came to this understanding that he just divide and conquer, because he had a powerful democratic majority that could was his will for two years. She has not gonna, have that hope Currency is gonna, be unsuccessful, simply as a matter of course, and she can start from January Twentieth: twenty seventy in saying this is all because of evil republicans, but there is appointed that line that tromp was using against or as a senator, which is preposterous like? Why didn't you change the law.
When you were senator just like lie with senator when there was a republican president. What are you talking about? Will she's gonna be the president so her ability to change Lord do things is entirely contingent on her willingness to fine to be able to cross. I'll make some deals with people, so this is a much different situation that up from from the one Obama faces, unless somehow she wins eighteen seats in the Senate. You know. So what are we finally bets? What are we gonna? Do is going to be happening in twenty seventeen. The everything changes scenario than nothing changes scenario. I really I really no no- I mean I genuinely don't know I'd my my my deeper pessimistic senses that Trump isn't gonna go away and that in fact, he's not gonna start
I'm tv is not going to do. This is not going to do that. He's gonna be setting he's going to decide that this was the most funny ever had and then he's gonna write his basically just gonna run for president for the next four years. I agree that going away. I had thought of him more as commercial proposition, but but you could be right, I mean he has clearly form to this, and he also has YO. Now he has a twenty five million persons mailing list and he can raise money it will raise, might take down republic. A chap tricks can do. All kinds of things. Also, yet you can't go home again. He can't go back to being a sort of you know. Semi could leave villain. Do you know you he's he's he's he's crossed the room. Why I'm sceptical he's rebranding his hotels, because this business is failing his children's futures? or on the line and their combining again? So that's why we should run day resonating right. Yes, then, for his sake, he's got nothin to go back laid himself out of it. Yes, oh the science hotels are now. You know
gonna, be the sign hotel in point not entirely sure that he doesn't get to sit down with the vodka who tells him here. You ve mortgage, you don't understand the family dynamic there. If you this whole idea that Ivanka and his children read him the riot act to do anything like that. That is ridiculous. They are his toadies. They are his lackeys. They do. Do what he tells them he doesn't do at anybody tells them they do what he tells us, you're scared of them, as they should be he's a terrible person and he is obviously a monster and will say and do anything and if you think that somehow he exempts his own children from that. I am very sceptical. Vodka could sit down until the cows come home heard. The question now is whether she re brands her own her own stuff, so that that so that her ridiculous, secondhand, clothing, businesses and you know destroyed
You know in the tuna me: that's the joke here, as I said, unto her this morning, is that you know the avant brand cells at Nord Stream, and you know it high end department stores and all that and Tromp brand is only going to be successful in places that she would never shop in and if she thinks they're gonna keep buying, keep featuring her clothing when the word trump makes people who shot at Nord Stream turn on their heels and go in the other direction. She's got a thing coming, so that's where I know, but that and her everything changed for her everything jacket. By the way. The last thing I want to say is that there are one point of optimism for twenty twenty is that you know
The great problem Republicans from two thousand and eight onwards was this fact that there seem to be no reason. The entry barriers to entry for the presidential race was so low that you might as well go win because you could get a Fox news. Can you do this? You could do that, you be famous, it was fun. There was nothing else to do so first there were Levin than there were fourteen than there were seventeen people running for office, and I think that the end result now. Twenty. Sixteen is the idea that almost everybody who ram, including Trump eventually was deeply damage. By having run, I mean you know, with the with the possible exception of Carly Fury and maybe maybe a directive, everybody was damp Rubio was damaged, crews seems to have been to potentially terminally damaged, JEB Bush was damaged, Christie was obviously damn, just go down. The wine linsey, Graham
Ok Lindsey Red lives. A great writer reveal more right did ok, but, but so too, Question now is going to one of the things that will now make it possible for there to be maybe a rational, nominating process in twenty nineteen. Two thousand and twenty is the idea that you go in this. You know this really is now like game of thrones. Now you winner, you die like that. Wasn't the case before you could lose and win. And now there is no there's, no winning. You know you die if you don't win, and so maybe the wiser part of strategy is until I get into a race where you're gonna be richly humiliated and have your name dragged through the mud and become somebody that people don't like any more. In which case, maybe we could have five candidates instead of sixteen. Like a real consolidation of the race when it's when there is the possibility of consolidating the race, which of course did not happen in twenty sixteen. So that's the story today.
Eight October, twenty fourth, and by the way we also don't know, don't think it's ten fifteen days. Were terrible. Stuff is gonna happen, ok trump do something terrible Hilary they'll be some terrible. Opera drop. The you know they were saving for the last two weeks. You know, hijinx are not over and the horror that will not end till November eighth and then it's we say: maybe the heart will continue or maybe something we will work and something else. I'm John Podhoretz for Commentary Magazine for a Greenwald and Noah Rothman keep the candle burning
Transcript generated on 2020-02-26.