Welcome to the commentary magazine. Podcast today is Monday October 15th, two thousand and eighteen HUD, the editor of commentary with me, as always senior editor, a bro I again, why am I saying, run Wild Greenwald Greenwald Hi John, hi babe This is my new mailbox in your magazine. What a year a year, solecism

associate editor no Rothman. I know hi John and back from a week sojourn away and Israel sort of senior writer high source commentary this seventy odd year, old, monthly of intellectual analysis, political probity and cultural criticism from a conservative perspective, we invite you to join us add, commentarymagazine dot com. Where we give you a few free reads asking to subscribe: one thousand nine hundred and ninety five for a digital subscription, two thousand nine hundred and ninety five for an all access subscription, including are beautiful monthly magazine in your mailbox eleven times. A year, so the semi comic, a big political store. Today he is Senator Elizabeth Warren of Mass It's apparently readying the revelation that she has had her dna tested, and we have has revealed DNA be done by a Macarthur Genius Grant winner at Stanford University, because of course the Macarthur Genius Grant is

really necessary to all genetic dna studies feels that she is in some form either. Between 132Nd in one one. One thousand and 24th native american meaning. That she is either native American in sub at some level from six generations back. Two ten generations back. Is this in ten intended to be an answer to the constant invocation of her name and the assertion by Donald Trump that she should be called Pocahontas, a version by the way, the Trump a a a a bastardization by Trump of the joke. That was being told by will about Warren on the right from twenty twelve onward that she should be called Foka Hontas, because there was no evidence of this native American.

You know, ancestry that she had claimed on forms at the university Romania at Harvard he just dispensed with the fo, the pun and just went with Pocahontas? I don't know why it's insulting to be called Pocahontas who was actually over here, oh so this So this I've never understood why it's like offensive and racist to call someone, but it's like if you called me Moses. I don't know that I would somehow take that as a really hostel thing thing to do work if I called you know sorry, Cyrus. Oh yeah, oh yeah, I anyway, so everybody was so light and they only want to take a bite at this up. On the whole, the whole feigning offense at the Pocahontas thing was a way to deflect to to to adopt this posture. Of indignant righteousness and then deflect from what we're really in a genuine questions.

About this woman's ancestry, and now we have them. So we are in the name of progress. Real. Negating racial determinism in the one drop rule. Welcome to the 21st century It is great. It was really wonderful that we are now re introducing concepts like quadroon in the octoroon I mean I mean what what what is going on. Here I mean obviously, like I say, there's some reason. She, this focus groups are polling or whatever must indicate that this. Attack on her is having an effect in that this, study, seems intent to address and retire. The attacks on her some kind of to get out ahead of something that might act like Birtherism acted on on Obama, but a classic interesting parallel, I mean the president has now on two occasions: forced democratic politicians based on really

spurious and sort of racial be charged allegations to display their birth certificates. To get their dna done, what's the race guy who's willing to active warrants case that she's white yeah That's ok, but I mean that you know you say your. I don't see any evidence that you're in a native american but that is the that's racial. That's Charlie, is that the white republican fever swamps that wanted to litigate this charge. They want her to be white. No, they wanted her to well yeah. They did that they wanted to be a lot shorter, okay, they wanted to be like. So basically what this reveals is that she is lying. Yeah. Yes, it is it's only around one thousand twenty. Fourth, sorry, if it had been one fourth or one eighth, then it would have been at it would have been a smackdown because up until the shore I always thought Pocahontas is one of Trump's funniest and best sort of

downs put down? Well, whatever it is, it's it's nicknames. Okay contact is totally a put down. I think it's hot, but if it's it's kind of funny and and and because you look at our you're like You'Re- not you're, not native American, but had she been able to prove one eight. We don't want one one out of one thousand twenty fourth bit indian or native American. That's that's funny, and it doesn't. I have no idea why she thought this was a good idea politically. In terms of like this, this will placate the people whose, yeah- I mean it because doesn't she in fact have to answer the question at some point? How dare you identify itself as native American, if you have only one one thousandth of a claim to it, Well? But that's why this is so incredibly boneheaded on her part to leak to the Boston Globe that she's about to come out with a big. Roll out of this revelation that she that that some Keeney, infinitesimal part of her of her

ancestral tree is Nate American. Now again, The ironies here are just mad, because if all he's basically saying is she's a liar then she's a liar I mean and the lot what it's interesting about the Warren lies is that they they represent an effort to take advantage of of a classic liberal leftist policy quote affirmative action on on the of somebody who had literally no claim to any such special treatment or standing right. So she appears some forms at Harvard University Pennsylvania as a native American, thus giving both the schools, God Things are minority faculty content, which is helpful,

when you have to submit paperwork to the government for grants, and things like that that you you reach a certain. You know critical mass number on in the sky, categories so that your school is within in compliance numbers on what you might get as a contractor or something like that or at the state level you know in Pennsylvania or Massachusetts so the lie is a should be deeply offensive to I'm sorry looking down and sore has just wanna picture of Elizabeth Warren with a native head dress in the paper in front of him Lastly, a couple weeks ago, as Darth Vader and now it's Elizabeth Warren with a native address any news here, okay anyway, I have to not look at Serbs paper, because it's it's it's it's it's too distracting

So like you should you know this is like classic an of a liberal social policy to help of A white person pretend to be native american So that's the funny part. That's us! We should be laughing all the way to the bank. The question is: are they people who are being deepened devout. Believers in this. These policy two braids million zoo ameliorate past wrongs they gonna be man. I have a hard time seeing how the mainstream liberals defender- in other words, I have a hard time saying I mean I- I know that that they stick together the way we stick for each other, but I still have a hard time and, seeing you know, given the current atmosphere on the left, saying: oh, okay, it's one one thousand and twenty. Fourth. That did so, therefore, that you know don't call her Pocahontas anymore and it's

and I think one of the goals of the people. I think twenty, if you called her like you know, I don't like a mass, murdering, indian or something? You know, mass murdering female date of America, and I don't know who that is, like walls who drinks a lot, yeah right, yeah yeah right! That's right! That's if you made dances with wolves joke. That would be one thing, but you know it's not like call yeah. I mean I I guess I'm I'm like Pocahontas, most Americans under the age of forty well, that is by Pocahontas, with the song colors in the wind, from the Disney movie of the same name right. No, nothing. I could go in the land that you live on, an oh, no, no, no, no, no, no yeah

but the colors I'm actually reading right now, a variety of statements from native american tribes in the National Congress of American Indians, etc. Who do refer to this as a slur, but do not say why merchant Trump's, you write, predators, prejudice native Americans, face isn't unfortunate historical legacy um. We regret that the president's use of the name Pocahontas as a slur and sold a political adversaries overshadowing the true purpose of the visit at a. But they do not this going to. Why I mean I would love to. I think that you know we have to play by the terms of the identity politics I would love to. I feel like in the you know, MRS Warren is

You know how you guys are all messes, Senator Warren is, is usurping and and appropriating and native voice, and I'd love to hear native voice about what counts is sufficiently native enough to be a member of a certain tribe, and in this case I I can't. I can't seem to tell whether first of all would would you can see she a Cherokee Shia. Is she a Delaware, a Delaware and second of all I mean one five hundred and twelve, the whatever it is, is I I would hope that some people on the left will say that that's not enough and you are appropriating someone else's culture and identity and in a press one and one that that saw a grave violations against them in the in the will and Jada Aftermath of the discover. The American. Have we gone through this with casinos would happen. There been people who've,

You've been claims of of tribal heritage that that didn't pan out in order to be a big, be granted ended. Up purchasing is legal person right, yes, but yeah there have been there. I've been interesting cases of of of sketchy, tribal memberships or sketchy trip the existence of a tribe that claims ownership of a piece of land, and it does not appear that some of the people who were at the base of their just a front for a mob family or something like that, because they're trying to build a casino. So these claim to be a tried. That is not really a try Rambo thing, I can't remember- I mean there, there's been Assn, there been multiple cases of you know of of these claims because of the eccentricities and complications of the the

Is that the tribe sign with the US government that still give them a certain limited degree of sovereignty over over tribal? hands and which is why we have casinos in Connecticut, for example, which are Foxwoods and Mohegan Sun, both of which stand on tribal lands Connecticut, certainly claim there's something, features about those who boost there or their tribal dna report in order to get ahead in the casino game This is so unremittingly stupid yeah. No. This is by the way is probably as elevated as the conversation around identity. Politics is going to get ahead of the twenty twenty democratic primaries, which begin in earnest. In about three weeks we are in the already in the middle of them. We're going to litigate Elizabeth Warren's heritage, we're going to litigate the the legitimacy of of Camilla.

Versus background, we're going to the job. Biden's body that Ireland has been right right now. How, whenever you open, I think whatever Joe Biden's chances are in the twenty twenty primary will be determined by how he fares in Re litigation of the Clarence Thomas hearings exclusively up or down it's going to be the stupidest most pure I'll way in which we're going to see a nominee selected since the last time a non with select well so this again is a representation of the way in which Donald Trump is revolutionizing. Talking politics, so a so a kind of finger wave dog whistle to a certain type of privative audience that would be amused and got got.

Thank God gotcha by by the although it was, it was worn, gets amplified by liberals on the left, who are just in a state of perpetual outrage, about every single thing that comes out of Trump's mouth and thus are triggers trump to keep doing it because their outrage then feeds the right wing payment machine and there's a feedback, loop And here we are, you know almost two years after the election in twenty. Sixteen who is Warren, has to make a public announcement that you may be one. One thousand and 24th native American, in order to still the problem that has been created for her by the fact that demo Let's don't know when Democrats and liberals don't know when to shut their mouths and not give trump, a megaphone to create this feedback, loop,

that ends up biting them on the and not trump word, or it bites trump initially and then after awhile, it just starts going back and hitting them, but this is a politics that they've created it. So much of the rewards, so much of the political pie turns on race and identity. You will get increasingly racialized identity, Terry Annise politics, and so I think I I by the way I would make a big distinction between Trump's bursar ism, which is revolting discussing one of the things I hated the most about the fact that he became the GOP nominee. It is one thing because based based purely on nonsense and conspiracy theories, and this case, which is kind of it, is kind of catching her. You know in a lie in saying mind your indian heritage if you, if you stood on it before so it

So he again we see an in. I think where Trump is both cause and effect or symptom. The creator of our conditions and symptoms of I'm going. Go This is something real about war and if she is going to Plip present herself as candidate for national office, which is well when confronted with the fact that she may have you know embellished affair we in order to make this claim when she runs for Senate twelve in the opposition research finds this quote: fissionable set of claims on her academic forms. That she then says her parents didn't get, her mother, didn't get married in a wedding, dress, 'cause her her father's parents did, approved of him marrying somebody who might have had indian blood affect, of which there is No.

It whatsoever. So did she make up more and bull stories rather than say- the story. My family was, we had in. There was in M blood in my family, so I said that I'd be blood like that's. You know, that's she had to say, but instead she sort of created a tail that Becomes one of these people in politics who becomes known as an embellisher right? It's Richard Blumenthal. It was in Vietnam, when he wasn't in Vietnam, or Hillary Clinton, saying she came under sniper fire in Bosnia when she didn't come under sniper fire in Bosnia. There are plenty there are plenty of cases like this in the report party in the 80s, where people claimed combat credentials, they didn't necessarily possess I think so yeah, it's not that this is you know only you only a democratic weakness. But it's a thing you want to know about somebody running for office, right eminences, where it's a real thing. It doesn't necessarily invalidate. Them as a somebody. You can vote for

everything is fair game. That's certainly fair game. One of the things that we've been sort of talking about on the periphery and the political dialogue is that Elizabeth Warren STAR has faded in part because of the nature of identity. Politics sucking up all the sucking up, all the oxygen on the democratic left. She is much more of a policy person much more of a policy wonk she's for her. Her interests are in progressive economic politics and that's sort of where the party was in twenty twelve, while this fringe was big and much more send, and now the fringe is the center and her political, of affinity that the Will Sanders Wing is I

I think, as anywhere near as powerful as they were in twenty sixteen. We know less than two thousand and twelve. We know this because we had the first major poll of democratic candidates potentially running in twenty twenty and Warren and Sanders together get something like twenty percent. And Joe Biden's at thirty. Three percent is an appetite for much so radical politics on the democratic left and and let's see terms nationalizing the health insurance industry in a federal jobs, t in the whole slew of of policy preferences. That Democrats have are very much radical, but they don't say pacify the kind of disruptive impulse that that that Democrats in want to want to see how that whole break. However, that poll, not that pole should be as you know, any kind of full full indication of anything.

Some of the real disruptors. You know who have emerged in the last couple of months. Do not do what did not do Well all of a gets one percent. I know a couple of other. Will get. You know a Warren fits that bill very well. It's interesting about Warren is that she was a basically a policy wonk law, professor who you know who into consumer law an essentially proposed the creation of this agency. That Obama took up. You know as a as something that he wanted to do this consumer protection agency and because Republicans said they would filibuster her once there were fifty once they weren't sixty votes for republican Zimmer said they would filibuster her. That was when she ran for Senate. She was going to go into the government to run this off at this, this agency that she had basically dreamed up, and she,

Is that person she is a you know, not a not a total radical, She wants all of those. You know he cannot with populist. Things have turned out that, oddly enough for somebody who'd been a law professor for twenty five years. She had a real gift for populist politics at the retail. Level, she stirs audiences she's, a good speaker, she's, very passionate, she's, very smart uh. And- and this is one of the few liabilities that she possesses this one story about a, I think her political acumen has been inflated I think, you're better accurate. I just me who prefer as an adult I don't, I think, her perform. If the powers have been inflated by people who wish she was much more communicative than she actually is she, and just like Bernie Sanders she's an avatar of a particular wing of the Democratic Party which has not been, which has been you, know, sort of looked down upon by the the democratic assed

Lishman, and so anybody who comes along and pays them the slightest bit of attention and give them a little bit of hope that progressive politics can become the for the forefront of the democratic movement. Is they inflate their political crowd, Bernie Sanders was a know, nothing hippie. You know who's who maneuvered himself into the weird politics of his state. Elizabeth Warren was a tenured There are two top law schools who I gather from went. There was a fantastic teacher and a very smart any person study with and to be able to buying those qualities. In the words being somebody who was good enough to be a Harvard LAW school, professor and good enough to be a retail politician who can speak to ordinary people? That's a rare quality, and it's not! The instantly dismissible sanders was much more an object of of the wing of the party that he that he represented

then he was, the credo is certainly debatable. You know she's not going to like screw up an interview. The way he's she doesn't give interviews. That is why she avoids the press like the plague. Yeah, there's a reason for that. We don't know, the reason is the reason she doesn't need to press every time. She gives a speech. It's underwhelming, I think I'm just saying if she goes to the Daily NEWS and is asked questions about foreign policy she's not going to act like she's twelve year old who's. You know never read that section of the newspaper that that's all I'm saying that said it's funny, because it should be funny that people like this get hoisted on their own. Petard is a little like pro life or you know. Turning out that are pro life forgot his girlfriend in abortion. I mean it's that level of no limits that level that level of hypocrisy,

violent violent. If of the very idea that you are piously supporting in the course of your professional life- and you know, people deserve to be called out on it, I think so. That's the Elizabeth Warren Story, the other uh. Racially charged, let's say what you want to call it like race consciously charged. A white supremacist in a white supremacist direction, took place here on the sidewalks of New York outside the. Most depressing republican Club in America, a club which I have spoke The metropolitan Club Republican Club on the Upper EAST side of Manhattan, which is that

townhouse on EAST 83Rd, ST you know in which the furniture hasn't been dusted. Since one thousand nine hundred and forty three and you know these sort silk stocking Republicans. You know who basically, the everything is more. There are no liberal Republicans anymore there with the club of the liberal Republicans the Upper Eastside side, voters for Jacob Javits, this long senator and Bill Green, the longtime congressman and an now they're, nothing there's no Republicans left in Manhattan. Trump got eight percent or something like that. Manhattan, no Republican has been elected in Manhattan, You know, I don't know twenty years, I don't even know and so they decided to invite a really shocking figure named Gavin Mccann,

who is probably best known for being one of the founders of the vice, media empire from which he was kicked out in two thousand eight he's since become a kind of bad boy, punk alt right punk white supremacist type. So they I hated him if I'm right now at two to to do a thing where he would stay age. He would take out a samurai sword to show How somebody in nineteen sixty one murdered a liberal politician in Japan. Do I have that right, a Toyota Yamaguchi who is assassinated with a samurai sword while delivering a speech before the party faithful in nineteen sixty and yes. So that was what Mcginnis advertised on his Instagram page Bible.

That he would re enact this events and in there, with five the widely enter with no or minimal? There's no wreck hounds from what happened in there, but he was photographed on the on the streets of Manhattan with them. The a four mentioned murder weapon. So presumably he did to what he promised to do. Yes, because you know that's what you really want inside your stayed republican club that had the where time has passed you by it's divided in all right, psychotic to come in and show how some the cut somebody's head off? You know in the japanese diet is, as I said, that, okay, we just to sit out. I'm sorry. Can I just now his line from earlier. This is oh Underbidding, Lee, certainly incredibly dumb, but much more dangerous, oh wait! Now, we've got it now we get to the dangerous yeah, so

It was all this all happened, sort of in quick succession, so the the owners of this club will, on the morning of October twelfth the date of the speech to see that as all terrible things begin with a broken window, there was a brick had not been thrown through the window at the glocks, and the doors had been called The of keypad had had been smashed into anarchist symbols, they've capital, a in recent in a circle, have been spray painted on the doors, and there was a note in the note said that this is just the beginning that you have invited this hipster fascist and you know we hate Democrats, we hate Republicans, but we're coming for you. And so everybody was primed for violence and that's what they got. Apparently there was so the cops came. And stops came in September around the events area, where the Antifa protesters could protest across the street is a behind barricades. As I understand

correct manis emerges from the building and as quickly hurried into a car and sped away. According to him, though, there doesn't seem to be independent confirmation of this. Somebody threw a bottle at his head from behind the barricades, I have not seen supposed report. This is what he says, and he says it was a bottle of urine. Although what's interesting is if the bottle were sealed, I don't know how he would know that it was a bottle of urine, at which point he says he brandished the samurai sword in response, to the bottle being thrown at him again, we all the same as is or whatever so he pulls out the samurai sword and then they push him into the car and he drives away and then com yeah. The things that we've seen so the anti fine on one side in the quote unquote proud boys, which is an organization he established the, western chauvinist organization that has a lot of people in the alt right now in its Mcginnis and Self said, I don't like the all right. What have you whatever, but a lot of these violent?

full, who associated with the alt right, are also associated with his organization. Six and one slash two dozen to me. I don't see much of a difference, so there in front of this event and several blocks away. There were some altercations. Some some of these members of the proud boys were filmed by a journalist attacking one of the count demonstrators there was no police presence there, and so, while they're are videos and they'll probably result in some legal action, nobody was arrested. In that event and, however, a couple of blocks away, there were anti demonstrators who were attacking when it probably is cops, were there broke that up and and arrested three members of what one act, because, when advocacy organization described as anti racist demonstrators so from the of of people who are invested in the righteousness of one side over the other. Here when both of them seem relatively testable to me, there was deference displayed towards racists by the Nypd that was not displayed towards the anti racist anti fascist demonstrators, which then lead to a press,

Conference by the governor of the state of New York, Mary Mario Andrew Cuomo, who said there's going to be a huge investigation? out of both sides, but of the proud boys and what they did an he blamed, Donald Trump for the violence in front of the metropolitan Republican Club, which is extraordinarily convenient, because they knew was also somebody who apparently, for reasons known only to his own fevered brain, seems to think that he might have a chance of being president in twenty twenty and he is. He is attempting to position himself as I'm so worst nightmare. The man who blames strong for now, I'm going to display my never trumper prowess here and give a little bit of the benefit of the doubt to the side that says that you know we took. We attacked the Democrats quite a bit for instigating this kind of violence and perpetuating among their followers a sense of hopelessness since the

of institutional bias against them and their membership, and of creating this this. This idea that an appeal to extrajudicial. Extra political means is Nessa very to subscribe, or to protect your own rights right. The same applies to Republican and it is interesting that is happening in places like Virginia and the upper side, every side of Manhattan, where Republicans really are in a state of absolute collapse and and hopelessness, in the sense that they can never reacquire their political influence, and so they are appealing- or at least indulging in these violent fantasies in these racially charged fantasies, and I don't think Donald Trump made this happen, but I do think he created an environment in which white nationalists and racially anxious Republicans

come out and say: ok! Well, this is me and I'm a lot less sense. As I just traded my background, I just don't think you can blame Gavin Mcinnes on Trump Gavin Mcginnis himself, I don't think is blamable at the proud boys are bunch of fascist. All this happens when existed yeah, but this happened. They existed before two twenty. Sixteen they are they are. They are the sort of the the originators in some sense of the alt right. They are the original. That organization was founded in twenty sixteen ok, but I'm saying Gavin Mcinnes is speech. Is an presence on social media and various other things I mean he's. Somebody who became too out will trade for First Fox NEWS and then break apart and then various other organizations and he is somebody who interesting about him is that he moved had he not become this. Person that he has become vice

The thing that he helped create is a five hundred million dollar media company and he his own radical horrifying radical racial views made it for him to continue with somebody who worked, you know, advice and he'd lost out on hundreds of millions of dollars, and so what he to replace them as a samurai sword, and you know a bunch of you know violent idiots, following him around beating up other violent it's who two and they should all go to jail. I'm not you know not. My contention is that Donald Trump spend two thousand and sixteen pretending like he didn't know what the Klu Klux Klan was pretending like he had. No idea who David Duke was an in getting the support of out overt racists, and then you have people like Corey Stewart winning the GOP primary in Virginia, and part, an expression of hopelessness and, in part, the the effect I think, of Donald Trump's D, stigmatization

of what a point of view that should be isolated and stigmatized. There was this sort of branding of white power of fascism, of of racism. That was happy already, that would that would have happened and what's happening before Donald Trump would continue to happen without him, and that is what Gavin is a part of, and that is horrifying thing, because sort of new face that that's that's not as easily dismissible as the sort cartoon of of of white power and american racism in the modern day, but what trump It is somehow. Allow the audience for that type of thing to feel somewhat less alien. It less ashamed and that's why you cvs guys now they've come out of the woodwork they're. Not hiding

the name itself there, there yeah right, yeah, yeah right well, now If I don't want it, I don't want to belittle zero As of this, we spent two thousand and sixteen talking about this. So I'm not going to I'm not going to I'm just saying that in Indiana it doesn't take. Donald Trump in twenty eighteen to have an event like this happen, and the and Cuomo and others are fanning. This is this feedback loop again, if elevate? This incident b, on where it should be they're giving their just giving the proud boys oxygen, meanwhile, in Portland last weekend we could we could go in the middle of the city. There was an anti for demonstration which people were being pulled from cars and and and surf threatened or beaten or something you know, and I to the extent that the press does make a huge deal out of these things. I don't think they're, not

a huge deal out of, I think they're doing that for because they're biased and like Antifa or think they should like can't and don't want to like focus all their. I ran them, but there is, as it happens, a virtue not making a huge national story out of this, because it will make Fifa seem cooler and now friends, and we want people to think that we want them to be friends otherwise, on those with setting up to the press is not wanting to do that, but also they have no choice but to cover the statements of the governor and that day on the no I'm not I'm not. I assist me when I'm done with this case, I'm bill, I'm saying that it's good that the press didn't you know, The Portland have three days of Portland, despite the fact that the right people are friends on the right think that this is of or media bias which it may be, and that quote, who is being irresponsible in May Yeah cause celeb out of this, you small mob of people, beating people,

like again They went in Boro Park, Brooklyn, in the middle of the street, beat up through three black hat Jews. And nobody did any that nobody's done anything about that. You probably give a big press conference and talk about how life isn't safe for you know, first Shomer Mershon Jews in in in Boro Park. Good to either leave the things are very incendiary and you create conditions under which things fly out.

Controlled politicians are supposed to calm things down, not rev things up at the risk of doing precisely were saying we shouldn't do. It is worth looking at both the the reporting to the Senate. It's been done in the raw footage. You can find on twitter of this kind of quasi occupation of Portland by these kind of hammer and sickle flag waving thugs who are imposing their own traffic rules and telling people went across and when not to and which, if you defy the orders you get a beating and and the mayor of Portland. I think it's worth noting has been too hands off. I mean this is been a lot of criticism from people who aren't even, but certainly could server Budget Portland. Yours are saying: why aren't you cracking down the next time. These guys do this send send baton, wielding cops in and show him what's up and at the I don't know the scenes out of Portland. I wrote on Twitter. Look like american lime. Are you know you have the you know that with the

represented not by the right as we understand it, but by these sort of edging toward extreme tube full on extreme type. Movement on the left are hammer and sickle waving. The totalitarian and their fight then duking out on the street, and then the citizen citizen pulled pulled over quote unquote. Bye, bye, t for cops, so to speak, for not obeying anti for is insane. This is Portland. Well, so the hope the hope one has is that this is a this is a country of three hundred and thirty five million people, or something like that. You have these bizarre incidents in the isolated incidents in separate cities and that, the the great threat of social media today and the fact that there is no such thing as a local story also is an actual all. This is that something that is just a sort of like a jape or a bad thing that happened in one place do into a weird things at one time

can get amplified and over stressed, and the other is of course, that what we're seeing is this slow motion breakdown of american civil society, in which case We should highlighted a lot in an effort to you know, forestall its matcher but rate promotion for my book. It is all all all good, I'm just yes social justice and making of America you're watching. It happened right now and if you want to understand it, read my book right and with that, unpaid paid ad, we're going to have a paid ad, very suitable, but I didn't want to associate it too much with the opening topic of the show, our friends at ancestry dot com. Because, with ancestry DNA the leading consumer dna test, you learn a more complete story of you. You can find you

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there uhm. I did have a couple of percents yeah. I think, like my smallest percentages, were like Iberian, less swarthy sort of hispanic, portuguese Spanish, that sort of thing, but I'm one hundred percent european, no indigenous peoples. In my background ancestry, dot com informed me that I was forty, nine percent, sure jewish eastern European jewish from the former Soviet Union and then a lot of English and welsh and northern European, and then a couple of- senator points from the celtic peoples, scottish and Irish, and just pretty much a european much there you go well, you are. The finest in America has to offer your everything you know We are building walls to keep out and tear it starting terra force to start to hurt, so

go to ancestry, dot, com, slash commentary today for twenty percent off your ancestry, DNA Kitthatsancestry, dot com commentary for twenty off your ancestry. Dna kit, ancestry, dot, com, slash commentary So I guess we should do a little political talking, and the political talking is that everybody is nervous. Uh, the weird, there's a weird phenomena of pole, divergence in which the polls are increasingly showing that there should be a democratic blue wave, but Senate polls are showing Republicans gaining ground in preventing the blue wave and possibly gaining seats as a result of the. Interestingly enough, somebody, I think Selena Sido referred to it as a

red tide, which is a terrible analogy. 'cause the red tide is that disgusting thing that happens in the Florida in the Gulf of Mexico kills thousands of fish and is incredibly smelly and disgusting. So I don't think really want to associate yourself with a red tide, like the red Tide is what happens when your destroyed in an election, but ok. So, We have it's what appears to be the what appears to be the sort of the death of Heidi Heitkamp's cancer, reelection hopes and in North Dakota and the revival of Dean, Heller's and the revival retailer Nevada polls now show him up. That's right now: Dean Heller, who was considered the most Challenged William incumbent, because he's a Bulls spoke, I'm from self. It is not particularly well liked in the state and is not a particularly admirable. Attention is up against Jacky, Rosen

chosen for the job of candidate by former Majority leader Harry Reid? Her salient political job seems to be in that she was head of the LAS Vegas. Jcc. Which we I celebrate in salute her I love a good Jcc C, my kids, plays at the Manhattan Jcc? But I'd not sure that that's really the credential you want for your senator from you know and Orton, purple state. Nonetheless, she's, not a particularly good candidate he's, not a particularly good candidate, and the question is which of the not good candidates is going to prevail now, the what the hell are polling. Is this, which is that, if there is a state in which a democratic wave would bring somebody. Like Jackie Rosen into the Senate. It is Nevada, which is a state that is very divided rurally and

Urban Lee and there is a surge a female voting in LAS Vegas in the city in Clark County in the city of LAS Vegas. That should be enough to push her. The top in those poll numbers may not. That may not show in the polls, but so have Claire Mccaskill in Missouri running for reelection, it's Josh, Hawley and she should be dead, hasn't been dead. We don't have polls right, we don't have. The Missouri with all polls in Indiana we don't have pulls in West Virginia. We don't have a hole in that. There's a there's a generate work at lawyer and in the end of that, makes it very difficult to Poland and the error at camp. I don't I can call somebody's phone and less they've agreed to it or something like that. Alright, so, ok, in the last couple of days we've seen a shift towards the GOP, the last couple of weeks, and I think we all know why that happened happened hold on so according to Harry Enten, whose CNN's

I'm really. Five hundred and thirty, eight, formerly the guardian good numbers cruncher pretty dispassionate. According to his projection. Now for the house, the Democrats are sleigh, it to take a majority very narrowly by about eleven seats, but Republicans according to him are most likely to gain a net for seats. Which, by the way the average most likely outcome, because it being a forty eight to fifty two Senate majority for the GOP one seat better than they have at present right so we're talking about. If it's, if it's one seat, it could be more than one city unless it's just you know really, because right, but and then we have weird things like there's a highly there's a neck and Neck Senate race in Florida right between Bill Nelson, the sitting Senator Democrat and Governor Scott right: there's been this arable hurricane,

the Panhandle is without power, and the question Are the people who are surviving the hurricane? Are they going to think well of Scott or Ill of Scott also, Will the fact that the power is out at the place suffering and it's ordinarily would be kind of a trump friend. The area will the fact that people are They find it hard to get to the polls unless everything is so cleaned up. Will they want go to the polls. Will they vote for Trump in the numbers that Republicans need? Would they vote for Scott. In the numbers that he needs to push himself over the top in Florida. If not, then that's a whole but if Scott can win, that's a net pick we're talking about a net pickup up right, that's taking that's taking away from the Democrats. That Democrats were not chat were not considered particularly channel. According to ends, Estimate Arizona is still leaning towards cures and cinema who would

just had a a a carpet bombing over the course of the last week of opposition research. So let's let's go These these are good. The first one was that she said that Arizona is, is a is a state of meth heads? she went to lab meth lab of Democracy said she went to tech. Just to try to give Texas a more republican state, then Arizona instructions on how not to become Arizona and then two things from the early part of century where she said she, If, if somebody wanted to go, she a call around a toll, call in show said he might want to go for often fight for the Taliban and Bin Laden and she said, do whatever you want and then some other thing think so. When pitching herself as a kind of yellow dog Democrat. She came from a sort came into

politics is a radical anti war person became a This woman know has moderated herself significantly and has run a very dis. In campaign in which she is will not take the bait, but these are some effective hits. I don't know, and if you know, Martha Mcsally, the republican candidate in the republican senatorial campaign committee? have enough resources to make that every Arizona knows that she said this about about them. Yeah, that's bad! I mean I suppose you know hatred of Trump and with enthusiasm Tuesday. All that could you know, could overcome some This is a big shift from where we were two weeks ago, where Arizona was pretty much done, where Florida was slipping away from a very good republican candidate in a bad year for republican candidates, where you had North Dakota

Looking pretty solid and Tennessee. Looking a little wobbly for the republican candidate, I mean all this stuff was was moving in the in the democratic direction. I mean almost universally across the board and then it just stopped, but not only does it stop. It seems to be reversing itself not that the in the last podcast are too. We discussed to know. You particular had said that you think, to the extent that there's been a Kavanaugh effect, that's helped the Republicans it will Will we see evidence of its dissipating in the polls before the elections or will all or will it be for? Will we continue to sort of look at evidence of it of it having to be continuing to to exist and thrive, then only to be actually surprised by the by the results okay. So if, if it dissipates will see it in the pause, because that's a Devanesan, the fact and if they tell pole enough

If there's, if there's sufficient pulling over the next three weeks in these places, it will be clear that you know publicans you know chugged along and then they faded back. Thing that hasn't happened, and that is striking? Is that the gym? Eric ballot. That is the question where you ask someone all things being. Would you want a Republican? Would you vote for Republican or a Democrat has gone in, democratic direction since Kavanaugh, so have three or four national polls that have the generic ballot at double digits. That is a necessary precondition for a democratic wave. The Senate polling is telling a different story and The question is the National Generic Polling Map asking a comeback for Republicans, not only in the Senate, but in these closely run Races where it appears Democrats have a have more,

fighting chance of out the Republicans in their seats, which is what it takes to take the house and reverse it. And we don't really have good data for that and their weird back add stories that polling companies themselves are putting out where the generic ballot is lever. Twelve points, but if you take it, down, and you look only at the sixty competitive districts it's more like two points for the Democrats, but that is bad. Add, and should not be done, the or, as a matter of science, because you know they only have like a thousand people in these Jimmy or pull. That means that some of these districts that could be five hundred and sixty seven people responding to the pollster Ann. You can't you can't determine what the edges from five people that's that's just bad. You know social science. So what we do

now is, for example, the New York Times upshot poll which has been doing these polls that you can see happen live it's a very unique. But they're doing where they they're running them, live and recording each polling point as it calms in the Pennsylvania. First, the first Extra Pennsylvania, which is a suburban district outside Philadelphia, the our Republican fits Patrick, has been doing remarkably well keeping himself in the race with very left wing candidate, the grandson of Henry Wallace, Scott Wallace, I think, is his name. The upshot poll has that has that Post Cavanaugh at plus seven four, the Democrat Wallace take away from fits Patrick, though sitting Republican, if that is an indication of where things are

these suburban districts, then the Kavanaugh effect may have worked to the democratic advantage where we know that the cabin effect seems to have worked in the republican advantage. Statewide it may in the districts were Democrats have to win, be an advantage for Democrats theoretically, but I think we'll know in the week before. In other words, if the generic ballot is still at eleven or twelve in the week before an if the sugar, if the cabin effect is a sugar high for Republicans and there's enough polling, it'll be it'll, be clear. That said, nobody knew how big the republican way was going to be in twenty fourteen publicans nineteen Senate seats in twenty fourteen, and I think a lot of people thought it would be two or maybe three. It wasn't really clear, maybe even won all those races were close and then, as happens in a way they all broke in one direction. But that's I mean that's sort of a bad

metaphor 'cause. Then everything should break for Democrats 'cause, it's a democratic gear. So if you have a sort of a split decision here, can you even call it away with decision? Right now? It looks like a split decision, but I'm saying so, let's look Republicans, hold every seat and pick up two or three seats. Not not any reasonably, that that's right but it, but it's very hard to read a circumstance like that, in which the Democrats then also within thirty. Five to forty I mean you just couldn't call it away about what wouldn't be away. No, I'm saying I'm saying it's more, so you have these like pull. You know the five thirty eight people right saying: there's a one in five chance. Democrats win the Senate's and there's a four in five chance that Democrats, when the house, if the margin in the house

This is large, it's very hard to see how that one in five number doesn't go up and if the margin in the Senate remains it's a one in five chance and that's what happens on election day, it's very hard to see how, if Democrats win the house, they don't they only women, they may only win it by two seeds. Three see the you know like they'll win, twenty five seats or twenty, so that will be judged horrible disappointment for them rob partisans will say, doesn't It only needs one. Then we have them we can can control and have investigations in all that, but after all this and the fact that they're a twice the amount of money that Republicans have an they have all these competitive races by one count there

laying the competitive races in the house if they can't convert half of those to democratic victories or two slash three of those democratic victories that will be a huge failure. All this talk about democratic enthusiasm, excitement and all that will have turned out to have been a chimera, and I don't think it really is a chimera though. Like what happens, we have that's a chimera only only pulling a month out, which is not a good. The evidence we have is that democratic Susie Asom is huge and republican. Enthusiasm as much less and Democrats are dragging themselves to the polls and Republicans really aren't in the same way. But who knows, and with that, we will bring this to a close four door. Rossman Abe, Gruene Gray,

Ryan Gruhn Grindlewald Grindlewald is a villain in fantastic beasts and where to find them. I bet you didn't know that you're right you're right played by Johnny Depp, so you are Johnny Depp on this. In this scenario, eight Greenwald Sorbet Marium John Podhoretz, keep the candle burn.