Welcome to the Commentary magazine bearing podcast today is to be honest worth twenty twenty, I'm John five words. The editor commentary I buy, was always to join Us Commentary magazine that calm. We give you a few free, reeds and ask you to subscribe with me as always executive editor, a I've. I jump associate no Rossman high Noah our- and yet again, back from her vacation, Senorita Christie rose high Christine, I jump

ok, I want to read you guys something that popped up in my memories and Facebook. If you guys are on Facebook, you know that every Now they send you something that you posted on the day on that date in previous moments of your previous years, and this is what came up for August Fourth, two thousand and sixteen quot. This is something I wrote post on Facebook most The trouble is that National Paul last night, forty, nine thirty nine Clinton State Poles, New Hampshire, forty, seven thirty, two Michigan, forty one thirty two pencil a forty, nine thirty eight. If these numbers track and always reality Republicans will lose the House and Senate as well near exe. Should level event for GEO P: wake up trump cards. You burn down the joint, so

Oddly enough, if you look at today's polling in so that there was a pole that had trump down by ten on August. Fourth, two thousand and sixteen and in the real, clear politics average today hold on in the real, clear politics average. Today Biden is up seven point four, so is arguably doing worse. Then trouble is doing better than he was in twenty sixteen today August. Fourth and binding is doing worse than Hitler. Actually, if not worse, cuz he's of forty nine in the in the average,

And as I cited those terrible poles in Pennsylvania, Michigan in New Hampshire, so coarse, he won Pennsylvania Michigan and he came very, very close in New Hampshire. So Christine what? What are you? What do you think well it's interesting, but I will add that I think we ve we ve long said the Trump is unique and I do think that its unique, look at him in that sense and look at those numbers from four years ago. In this way its usual The devil you know is better than the devil you dont know, but as I think, Actually I interviewed that he just did with Jonathan Swan revealed them the more we see and hear of Trump, the more incompetent he he seems to be for this particular moment, which is quite different from twenty sixteen. So I am much more sceptical that this suggests he could rebound and win again

even though we were all wrong about the numbers for twenty. Sixteen I feel like now. We ve seen him in the midst of several crises. The devil. We know- and we don't really like that like that- that the sense of needing a change is still gonna. Overcome his hope his his hope that he can can pull this election out like you didn't, in sixteen, I think the circumstances so different in his defeat do so glaring at this point that it would be a much harder slug for him, I think it's very valuable for that popped up, because I dont think trumpets sunk, I think he's in the game doesn't mean I think, he's going to win. He I think he might, when his vast array of deficiencies were pretty glaring

in sixteen as well on display every day. I think there are actually certain parallels that even out those just thinking of India over the past couple minutes, will you hazard we're talking. Between between this moment and twenty. Sixteen, despite the fact that this is a unique crisis, a more or that were going through several any crises, there was the sense after Trump one in twenty. Sixteen of, while of course, what did we think Hilary was so extraordinarily polarizing right. Might there not be something in Biden not polarizing, but but couldn't you see the will of Course Biden was a mess. No, he resumed after the fact yeah yeah, yeah yeah, diagnose precisely you can see what the diagnosis would be right around prevails that bright rough and in twenty. Sixteen there was

well, it makes them set also in the end as diagnosis. Well, it makes some sense because the country had just gone so far left they were just pushing on every front left word. So look at that. Look at the current moment where, where the worthy the left inspired upheaval is absolutely everywhere. So I think there will end, as with twenty. Sixteen, we risk, ignoring these atmospheric influences in favour of the polls that may or may not be reflecting. What's going to happen, while it's interesting, then because the Noah, let me ask you this- is the fact that there is

establish dynamic in the electorate, this negative polarization thy mouth. That means that we can already see that trump benefits from in the sense that generally look at those are the action facts of the moment. You know the kind that the dry annual lies. Thirty, three percent in a quarter the pandemic, the loss of his major talking point, which is that he did such a great job to me that that none, the less he still in the game itself is an indication that may it doesn't matter what he does and anything funny way doesn't necessarily batter what binding does. The question is: is the atmosphere in the country, the sort of atmosphere that

means that he will get reelected were all means that bind we'll get reelected that They do isn't gonna matter. Biden may look mentally deficient trump in his own way looks mentally deficient as that access interview would tend to indicate in a different way the little. It kind of pollyanna fish in a very peculiar way about what's going on so maybe it doesn't matter, what happens the debates, the vice presidential pay? All of it that were served headed for November and that the national mood will be determined. We will understand the national moved by what happen on a lecture them here I don't know, I don't think you can make that determination. Now it's a sort of thing that will congeal in a retrospective looking back on the year, people will say, as I just said, whatever the outcome was was inevitable. Yes, at the time, even those now,

but I would never sign onto the statement that suggests that events cannot alter the trajectory of this election I've been probably trying to say that yesterday been trying to say that for a while, it's a lot of game left to play, and I don't think you can say that I don't think it would be fair to say that Donald Trump is doing as well or better than he wasn't two thousand and sixteen at no point has he led in any poll ever neurons are going back to February was the last time you lead in a national survey as opposed to sixteen where it was a single digit race, even before the conventions and Donald Trump had a period after the convention's, where he led, even in the average of poles, so I think he was doing markedly better than he was now. This is depending on its own, It's a high single digit, if not load, double digit race right now nationally,

and state level survey suggests that a lot of grounds are in playing down from his defending territorial in places like Ohio in Florida that he cannot win without the power of incumbency does confer some advantages, one of them being that you're in the game, no matter what you never not gonna be in the game, particularly with the money machine that the president has but he's not that I don't think he's doing as well as he did in twenty sixteen, and that does not mean that you can't rebound, but it is incumbent on Joe Biden stepping on a couple of landmines. It's not just the Donald Trump has to do better. Joe Biden has to do worse and he can- and I think that the spotlight is going to begin to focus more on his campaign and behind him ass, a cat. That and not allow him to get away with. The kind of bungling that he's been going has been has been advantage so far, that advantage is going to end after the conventions, but so far the trajectory the raised, as pointed out, will trump losing

losing handily! How can I change in the same thought right now, I'm looking at the wheel, clear politics chart of twenty sixteen and no. You are correct that in on several occasions, December's twenty fifteen they were within. They were within a point of one another. Ah, ah February, first, twenty. Sixteen, I think its ways forward, for I am trying to find this number here February forthwith succeed. They were, they were very close and Trump lead on July. Twenty, seventh, twenty! Sixteen by a point now what happened after July, twenty seven twenty, sixteen democratic

mention an trump calling and then from calling Cassiar Khan, the Father of the gold star here you know like like attacking him in assaulting the guy who's whose whose his, whose summit that died. As you know, the military officer at which point the pall, started to spread kind of radically and then on August forth in the real, clear politics average member excited a poll in that Facebook pose one pull that had Hilary up ten, but on this date and in the milk or politics Average Clint was up. Six point. Eight binds up seven point four now, so he is actually doing better than that that everyone There was a pitch them that Trump name in twenty succeed. He cannot make now, which I think was probably more powerful than people realize for the voters were genuinely undecided and broke toward him in the last week

which is when he said why we got to lose Gimme a shot when we got to lose. You hurry? You know me, you don't know, but you know I'm telling you I can do a better job than she can. What have you got to lose Gimme a shop and when Commie comes out and says there investigating re males again and all of that Maybe that idea was more had real Paul in a way that we didn't rapid as in any way and of course now that heat- that's not him. That's by that is what have you got to lose? Look how terrible things are now.

You now give me a shot. What have you got to lose a can't get any worse. You know, maybe, and so if if that was a powerful message- that obviously aside from the collection of issues it's bad for trumpeted and that he can't that is an error. He can't pull out of his work well, and he can also that the other message I think he used to great effect in twenty seen that isn't available to him. Now is the message right: the drain, the drain, the swamp message which, ironically now redounds to binding effect because is definitely a swamp creature if you're defining it the way you knows his having been a lifer and DC, but that actually, in the moment of crisis, for many voters I think, is an appeal, not a mother, not something that detracts from

bite and canvas he because the assumption is all know what to do, and that certainly been his message. Oh, I know I've been vice President Santer, even though, if you actually breakdown his record, it doesn't really comport well with the way the Democratic Party sits on important issues like law enforcement and and crime, and what not, but I think, that's another. That's another part of that message that was appealing for Trump voters and twenty. Sixteen that that has lost,

threaten it. I'm not sure I think no, I think no one wants chaos and recklessness, but the idea, I think the outside her playing in our politics is somehow here to stay for a while, as as something people what it's, not as if, during the various things at that that have discredited trump on several fronts. It's not as if the establishment and in its several forms have bathed has bathed itself and glory simultaneously. You know, are long trusted. Institutions knows dived along with Trump. So who knows

look I mean my. What I find is that those being in our an intensely close student of politics on a daily or even an hourly basis, and that kinds of things that I know when I see and that we all know unseen and and focus on You have to spend your life trying to imagine what it's like when you're, not a person like us and you are trying to digest political information and make decisions about what's going on and it becomes very differ. To understand who was watching what who's paying attention to what is going on the cities or that duty. Really now. Are they in our day to day you know if you watch like where we re Leno did those things where he would just there would stop random people history mass them. You know like who George Washington,

Wasn't they couldn't answer the question or whatever? Who knows what the people who are going to decide the election actually now and then now and what is the impression that they have of politics? Is it? Does it deepen overtime or is it all kind of import, vague and impressionist? and affected by. You know what what what rotation there with their friends. Are there you now or or the people around them, or something like that, and so It's really really hard to say. Either a what do? You think that this is where I forgave right that out loud and clear in retrospect, like that people are gonna say, what are you crazy? The Democrats, when insane, of course, of course, from one re election or

what are you crazy? Nobody was paying attention to that. Nobody Trump would try to go with this year. There is in the hands of the radical left, but people like, they don't have jobs, and there then that you know their worried that the unemployment money is gonna, run out and then and they you know They don't know if I should walk around in masks or not like that's what that's what the fact and then they're, not thinking about the condition of the country and some general sense. They have real personal turn that are destabilizing to the staff going there for any effort that Trump might make to make a larger political ideological taste for his own re. Election against Biden is going to fall on deaf ears and I genuinely don't know how to sort through those collecting of those poles of reality and they cancer.

Both be true another. The question is which silo in american life is more powerful than the other silo. Well, we do other tools that we can use to sets out the political landscape beyond just survey data just take a look at the two campaigns which one is acting like they're in trouble. It's pretty clear from their perspectives who perceives post to be behind the eight ball, but that can be delusional. This is part of that. This is part of the threat to buy them, and this is the threat. This was the threat this is why Hilary lost, which is its very hard not to drink your own Kool aid. It's very hard not to get overcome, if you are a liberal Democrat and you our bathed in the attitudes and beliefs and convictions

at our supported, not only by the media but by popular culture and say by your own kids were in college or whatever it's very hard to emerge from that filter to say you know, I'd better, like gonna Michigan five times in the last two weeks because they were not really farm and mesh. Again, you know if we lose Michigan, we're gonna lose the election, somehow How they didn't know that now you look back and you like? How could you not have known that in its because they were ingesting. The news the same way. We do you think they, we think they're like sane and sensible, and you know like they're there. Their heart ass, tough, minded politico types, but let me We ask you this Christine in in the world in which we live. Bide needs to sit down, have a conversation with his like his brain trust. There, like here, the vice presidential pixel

well, here's a hard way to have a conversation with serious conversation doesn't help us to pick a black woman, or does it hurt us? In other words, what we need to do is back eighty five thousand Obama to trumpet. Others. Will it help us with them that I pick a black woman or will it actually cause they're they're racists? This is what they would their racists and we- and we all know that this is a racist country. So we better not in flame them, but like maneuver around them and not push there, but now can buy in twenty twenty in. In July or August. Twenty twenty actually have that conversation openly in his basement with his brain trust. I say the words can even come out of. A mouse I mean they can have some weird, Karla Q conversation where they live

raise these issues in incredibly delicate ways, and no one will actually Stan when anybody else to say so the question being our has it? Is you miss the Biden campaign itself so woke that it can't even have the the you know the quiet, unwell conversation about our voters- and I think that certainly probable, the other, the other. Now that I think might be happening. Is you know by recently- and I am talking about the last year or two has not been great when you ve put him in front of a crowd, spent very thin skinned intestate. You know he's had a couple of little outburst that were caught setting aside a kind of stream of consciousness. Gobbledygook way he sometimes speaks. He read It has not been a great retail politician out there recently, and so I think, the longer they keep him in that. Are they really is a very delicate balance? There's a there's, a real tipping point, we're if he's in the bunker too long and he's not out there talking to me,

on looking amiable and normal and an untruth MP in its good are not be great, and so once you six, the VP. Maybe the idea is they go out together? That person is more personal and, and I still think that the fact that their vetting people, that are extremely radical left. The kind of p candidates, who would never be considered on either side of the of the Isle in previous era is now being publicly vetted, is either You talked about yesterday, either a really strategic aim of treaty chess or a sign of what your pointing to challenges that it's the campaign itself has woken up, that they think we're going to push the american people are ready for. This is look at the George for protest. That mines have changed. Let's, let's move forward in this progressive direction, in which case you, I think that that's gonna help drop doesnt, doesn't the whole logic of the black wives matter, movement philosophy that we are being drenched in at every moment suggests that the last, in their own minds. But the last

then he should do is pick a black woman. I mean seriously like they say America's irredeemably races country, their structural racism, and we know that the what the single largest vote en bloc in the United States, if you wanna considered a block, are white working class white people who did not attend that is the largest covered in the United States Electorate and, according them they're all monsters. So if you need him to win and you meet him to win in order to like fight back against those people, Then you can awaken the sleeping giant of racist evil. Erin Ass, the remember they have contempt for that chunk of the electorate. I don't I personally does, but there's if that was Hilary, is new. The deplorable problem right, there's a certain.

Sensibility among progressive enlighten liberals that actually weeks they have to they have to force it on that part of populations. Time that you know they're on the wrong side of history. We hear this dimension all the time, so I actually think it could go either way like if they actually think that that's going to help them bring all those voters into the if our century than they will do it because, right now they have a pretty weak incumbent to find and so now is the moment to do that right. Well, let's go. Let's apply some perspective here. There is very little indication that Joe Biden or his core observer of the advisers around him believe that we should transform twenty twenty and the referendum on american race relations. They ve done everything they, and to avoid that topic- and it's pretty- I think it's pretty hard not to see that in the November fourth upper looking back on buying lawsuits because they lost sight of the issues around the election, which are the economy and of the virus.

There are some people around your button who want to transform this into a referendum on race and Donald Trump campaign has been doing everything they can to forest Joe Biden into this box. Which has not hard day it's hard to avoid. There's a lot of people around Joe Biden who want this to become a referendum on american race relations and to be a repetitive and restorative election Joe Biden clearly doesn't want that Donald Trump does so it's not just as there is for fighting is progressive, left flank. The fact that this is being forced on him by his hello. Can adversaries makes it an easier trap to avoid that's what I would think, but I'm saying I actually don't agree that this is an error, deeply races country that wouldn't that would look with such disfavour on the choice of a of an african american woman that they would bed, then you know turned to Trump, because that's an african american woman. I do think that it would be insane for him to pick somebody who went to Cuba with the rainbows

Dave and then sent words of mourning Annette half a day on the death of Fidel Castro, sucked up to the Scientologists and was passing around with the head of nation of Islam in California. That would be crazy. That's Karen Bass: Karen Bass is a nobody who is only been made into a somebody by this presidential weep stakes. So the idea now it seems to me to the very telling moments, because if, if, if, if she hasn't wasn't knocked out last night by the revelation of her kind words and photographs with nation of Islam figures, then then I dont know by that. The Biden campaign is what I think it is, which is what I think now describe. He hued very close

linked to this line that he was gonna say as much as he needed to say to not be openly offensive to the woke right. Pollution, while not being a part of it and me This is now advanced over the last two months. So Far that you that's no longer the case could also their floating Karen, precisely because they are trying to make the case for the other people that they're gonna pick see, I thought you can make that case, but not anymore. Not after the flax he's taken in the press, she went out there to show that chicken gonna, take slings and arrows and draw fire from the nominee. That's the job first do no harm. She's done a lot of harm in the voting process. I dont think anticipated that she would. She would take this kind of a sullen when she was floated if they did, then she should be really really mad, that she was hung a trifle actors with from the bag and kept. It will be part of the voting process,

If you don't know how someone's going to write, you don't know that you are, you are, if you say, can I that you and they say yes, then it's sort of like well we'll we're going to see what happens and he extended his next week, presumably because some of them had to play out now, as I say, I think she's probably done, and that. Therefore, The question now is: does this mean that all the buzz starts to fade and its Harris Rice or Duckworth, and that's it or does Val Deming start coming up on the post, because Bass is finished and then she'll be elevated? Floated up there too soon

kind of what kind of fire she takes and then maybe, if she surmise it better for a week, then maybe she gets picked. I don't know I mean if basses out, then this was a very successful. Process, they put her name out. They gave the up They gave people two weeks to do up all honour Chalk Ross of the daily collars done amazing. What work in this regard and and so now they they don't they don't their hands, are clean NAFTA, like and bade her then go now. You can't get it like it's more like no other Democrats aren't gonna water have any of you

as I think about it, I don't. I don't think that this was a case of their putting her out there, so that their their eventual picked by contrast, will be more palatable because, as no says I mean this- the reserve this really. Is that Biden their camp? It now has some association with her and her associations by extension. However, briefly, you know it's it's it's not good. Think for both forbidden? You know in any way to have to have gone through this with her. Well, if he hasn't packer, he can't be accused the picking sure sure, as I was saying they put it, but if the message, but if it's the part of the message on the on the part of the Republicans here and part of the fear among Democrats is that they will. Be associated generally with radicalism. Linux

hey my dears. This was another data point. I think that's true, because I think it is she's, even within the realm of possibility of being vetted, then that is a signal of where the party is right. Now, because there look at a range of candidates and she's on one end, didn't you know maybe you'd say come on this is on the other, but I agree that that actually signal something about, but there they consider within the realm of the of the mainstream democratic parties, as the only people you that provides president. But how long we ve been saying this biogas liability as the party he leads at these surrounded by these people, who have gone much further laughed at him and then in the four years that he's been out of public life. And he's got no choice but to go to war with the army. He's got

and its incumbent on the trumpet campaign to make that the issue in so far as they can't, because the economy in the pandemic aren't moving in their favour by your fighting against the tide there. Those are the two dominant issues and if Donald Trump is putting a lot of pressure on the Bible campaign to address this stuff here, be able to force it on them, but it will be by force the Barton campaign will just through since that will force be inclined to resist the pressure to address the radicals on their own side. When about during what about the debate question, which We still do we have any. I don't think, there's a single scheduled debate on veterinary through about birth rate of your went. Ok, what the This one is not hospital right here I was gonna, be now was there's gonna, be it in another game, and now it's here now it's into the clear clinic or some very good sitting right and I think September, twenty ninth as the date of the first day,

now in the trunk campaign, has begun to make an issue, and rightly so, that the Presidential Debates Commission has not addressed the fact that this is a a unique election in which a lot of people be voting by mail and voting by male starts weeks before the first debate happens and the tree, We saying we want a whole bunch of debates and we want them earlier in good for before doing so Trump campaign again is acting like there behind because they are right in the mining camp. He may not be well served by to hide their candidate for ever love. You see. This is an interesting point because, from the outside, her went with an outside struck, an outsider structure for his re election can right. They put bread a vapor, Barbara part scale in this way that the whole thing election was on Facebook. They spent eight hundred and seventy trillion dollars.

To get themselves to forty one percent, which is where they ve been the whole time, and now they basically a put in a political operative as the campaign manager who, doing what a poet what standard issue political operators which, as you know, what I'm actually we have to we have to live with the reality is that exists. The really exist is a lot of absently ballots and vote by mail, and so rather than stand around saying we're about to unleash the death star on you, let's actually you're with reality as it is and shift the debates earlier, so that people who are going to vote by male can do so with better knowledge of of of of the order of battle. There's one problem with this theory as a matter of course, which is that damn you have to assume that the people

we're going to vote in September have already made their minds up like there's. None of them is going to be is not going to be as far as going to go. Okay! Well, you know what I was going to vote for Biden, but I just watched the debate. Then I guess I have to vote for trump like. I don't think that people who want those ballots, those mail in ballots, have them in hand are going to start mailing. The man you know in August or September know who they want and they don't hair, I don't know if it's not. If that's necessarily true unjust, because voters are generally for ass, an ecological than we are. We had this kind. The station around Amy Mcgrath nomination in Kentucky for a. U S, senator face much Mcconnell. Is that Lotta people were voting before the democratic world

He was seized by this moment that occurred after the killing of George Floyd and her opponent, whose in African American did far better than we thought he would based on polling. Perhaps in response so this moment and how many people in a lot of those boats came in absentee, were voted on weeks and weeks and weeks ahead of time in a lot of people, perhaps probably would have taken their vote back if they could have. Events do change trajectory of alleged shadows want elevating the candidates and thats actually why early voting is bad right we need actually, where his bad and people you know we're gonna lose all about how they are no difficulties because tramp Trump and handles these things with a sledgehammer. There are major issues with early voting end- and you know- male in voting and all that there are, there are serious issues relating to potential

that really is extremely few cast your ballot before October thirtieth, you cast a vote for a candidate in Hillary Clinton, who you suddenly discovered, was under a criminal investigation by the FBI, but it offer which changes introductory lowering the other thing that will change the trajectory of the race in that sense is that is that it will not make sense to save the late hit. You now, the classic thing in every election sees them until the now was that in the last campaigns, aimed a story to drop on their bribe. Or if they had a really good one and kept it under close hold to see if they could depress Willie to depress the vote of the rival, read the most successful one day, George W Bush is DUI, which call Rove estimates, cost Bush three million votes, and doing that to like make his life easy. I mean, I think they they actually have actual data that they saw.

Massive slippage. They were even looking at me out to put. They were starting to contest in California because he had some weird surge in California that just manage them the deal I had so these you know, then there was the failed head on and on Bush in two thousand for about so the missing weaponry from the arms dump in Iraq. That just did that didn't didn't take off, but Clearly, if you're gonna have a late head, you're gonna have to release it by Labour day were not enough to have if there is a thing. And obviously the thing for against Trump is going to be five anthem at hand, the aid, whether he can join up an indictment of tromp on on fraud charges, which is what we heard about yesterday with the

Tax returns to how can he can he come up with something fast quicken dirty than that that can you know that can be used as a you know as a hammer, I get stop a terrible laid hit because the that the tax issue with Trump has been through. You know, beaten and fizzled several times in several ways What they read, then there was the fraud. There was the tramp tramp university fraud. Poison say he was in fact I mean it there was a civil settlement right into it. Listen which basically is a kind of admission that the fraud happen. Then it didn't obviously legally suddenly decided omission of April. I know

I would say you know: that's the old rule right that America, if it's gonna, be elated on Trump. It's gotta be a sex scandal for people to actually take note, as financial scandals don't tend to me, we have this with the ammonia, so mean actually think if you want to make an argument about trumps, corrupt ability earned the corruption of his family. There there's a pretty serious one you could make you could look at. How is you know? What's? Redounded too is isn't empire while has been present, but the average but he doesn't have the time or inclination to dig deep into that. I agree. It sounds too much like previous attempts to attract women. I mean it. There's something other worldly about this conversation. The notion that voters need some news for us for source of information in order to really accurately judge Donald Trump or are they have tried to melt relegates? Now? This question is: let's go in reverse. I mean that do the Trump people have something on bought. We know will there be a later by, and that is something that Pasco might have mishandled, but that's the, but that stepping into only will not miss handle if they have something he will drop

and in a way that will be helpful. You know electrically but again in the world of art can Democrats and liberals lie to themselves about how they're going to win and therefore miss handle the next three months and walk themselves in to defeat some of this does come to that which is like that they want. They want there to be bad stories about tromp. They did. They can't get enough of them. Their buying two million people are bought this book by His niece was seen him once in twenty years now in the last twenty years and who basically spends most in the book doing arm chair cycle analysis of him like sheep I was any good because she has an may or something, and you know in social work, and so you know you could write that book. I could write that, but there's nothing to it, but they cannot get enough. The Cancun after

they want it and they will hit it and it's like the discharge- and I wanted to be which is horrifying? I'm sorry, we go ahead, watch it. I would I wasn't gonna watch Jonah Belburg made me watch and I watched just before we started this and I couldn't leave my eyes. I just I just couldn't but like that talk of a change anybody's. My nothing is going to change. Anybody's mighty is the most well defined person on the planet. Earth tromp. I don't know I think you can saturate television with the phrase. It is what it is. Referring to the mountain of death resulting from covered infections in this country, and maybe. Anna made a couple of voters who would otherwise be three enthusiasm scale to six maybe, but I'm in again remember a three: there were six: if the person's gonna vote, it doesn't matter where they are in the enthusiasm scale. That was the great

Listen I'm workin out and then about it. That's the point: geography! Ok, you can do maybe you're right out of the president's definiteness until all the time and the problem is that he's talking too much with the trunk campaign needs is Joe Biden to have the spotlight and we'll get that time. That time is coming, which is the events that are going to shape the trajectory the race. I do think that, we're gonna see tightening and it'll taken as a result of Joe Biden having to explain himself, but he doesn't it. That's not we're not there yet and not with barely August. It also tightened because, as the news reports, this week's agenda the rub. The GNP is doing a better job of registering voters right now in certain in certain states, and although there is still a bit of a democratic and better and swing states that european Are you trying to catch up in enclosed that that deficit in terms of the number of people who will ideally be turning?

or mailing in a ballot unelected. Arguably one from the race and twenty sixteen was not necessarily James call me, but when the James Commie Letter happened, the trunk campaign disappeared, it dissolved, it ceased to exist, it was just the president was just background radiation and my pants took over and of the rights previous took over Paul Ryan took over those were the voices he saw in public after October thirty, and it was all the focus was entirely in upper down referendum on Hillary Clinton if they can get that dynamic again. At that time, we were talking about voting. And now for six weeks. So maybe that's foreclosed therefore closed upon here's, why if you remember, remember back to Florida right which so in the way before Florida tallied before election day. There was

all this early, but there was essentially with essentially like ten days of voting in Florida where you went and we voted at the pulling place and for reasons of egg Can you to allow me they know what party people were in when they voted I don't know how they knew this, but they knew this, so they were. Going and they knew on election day. The two hundred and fifty thousand more Democrats had voted before election day. Then Republicans and all week we were like well he's done. You now look at that Susie. I M Gottman big gap right two. Fifty thousand people guided our blob lie and then came election day, which is now a point. I guess ways when Republicans traditionally have voted. They dont use these other modalities.

Election day, Bro just swamp this early vote, and- and there was that moment at what it was eight forty p m on election night, when it suddenly being clear that tromp was gonna win. Florida and I remember standing on a subway platform at forty second street going home and saying: oh, my god, he's gonna win, maybe because he had one floored- am I and all Literally everybody in the world said because the early boat had been harvested this way and for that he couldn't possibly win I dont know how this early mail in stuff is gonna, how they're gonna tranche off. How is this and whether there is some way, but Maybe they're gonna. Do it to themselves again, like Lucy in the football they're going to convince themselves of their

so much early voting that they're gonna win and then it's gonna turn out that they're not gonna win because they were over confident and then they made moves based on their over confidence. Which is whatever the trunk campaign is gonna, be just, as was true and twenty sixteen you say no, they are not overconfident he's he's more and irascible street fighter and kind of he enjoys the fight Emily. He I think part of the problem for the campaign is it heap. He probably wants to be unleashed more and and get beyond twitter more in saying, you know constantly responding to everything the Democrats do and say, and they're trying to reign him in Biden is the opposite and finds message, I think of a return to normal, see, I'm gonna, be the calm. Percy you don't have to worry about me on Twitter is effective if you're trying to protect yourself as a veto,

the certain kind of leader- but it's not great if your candidate right, if you're in the mix, the battle with it with an opponent like Trump you risk kind of you know, taking sustaining quite a few body blows without responding. So I just want to point one other thing out before we before we close here- and I sent this through to you guys from my my buddy in our contributor David. Some who is covered in markets is a very useful and important news letter that helps us to understand what's going on a daily basis. So David Semi, any man send me in a bunch of people and email on New York City on them results in New York City, so here in New York City Calvin,

he's gone. There are basically three cases per one hundred thousand people of covered in. Ah there were fifty seven cases in Manhattan and on Monday, fifty seven active cases. Fifteen people hospitalized Manhattan Accounting one point six million people and for the last ten days fewer than ten deaths a day again the county of one point: six million people. Why aren't we open? Why hasn't New York fully opened? Why can't you gotta, church or synagogue? Why can't you go indoors to restaurant? If you want, Maybe people really don't want it that this is the way I thought we were at eight. You said this. I thought we were functioning on the basis of the data on the data are here

Not only are we not open, what's disappeared, entirely, are the benchmarks that we were shooting for two open right, What there is not even a number announced that would allow New York to have endured dining, let alone open, because it's not like ass. He rise at the final phase of reopening phase, for there is no face. It's the forever horizon. Now, that's it read so, and this is where. I only bring the sub knock as I wanted just talk about New York City cause. I lived there and to paint right. I doubt. I'm trying to use this to serve. Look at the psychology of the war against covered, which is that As long as somebody is getting it, everybody is getting it as long as there is a there is a kind of collective assumption that in the United States, if people in New York or art we're getting sick everybody,

was the shut down and they didn't. And now no one in New York is sick, but other places their sex. So we need to be shut down, and it is this bias, which is again when aid has been saying, for we are biased for lockdown a biased, warned the notion that people actually want to be locked down that it is more comforting to be locked down than to deal with the uncertainty of living without lockdown, but in a state of caution, right, I mean basically have to live in a state of caution where a map nice, go into a restaurant if you're worried inside whatever, but this it's the same color. This is the point at which were now where you know. I think people were a little too pollyanna fish at the beginning of this epidemic, sir.

Oh, it's just like the flu anywhere now. Actually, at that point right, the risk is is similar for people in New York City, as it would be for the seasonal flu, which will return in the fall by the way. So there's strange- I mean maybe It'Ll- take the number of people who were hospitalized as we regularly see every flew season as a contact so those with Cobain did to get it into people's minds about the risks they have long lived with before this pandemic hit by it is kind of astonishing that isn't. For me, the concern is that the benchmarks have disappeared, because As the way of of reasserting a set of qualifications, didn't exist at the beginning and that our kind of having it rewriting history of how we plan to deal with this, and also how public health officials told us. We should deal with it that that concerns me a lot but also speaks to the power formula, which is that, if you set the benchmarks, then the benchmarks are set and the politicians are just

exercising power, Willy nilly, they are following guide their falling independent standards so that they are not just making decisions like that met Montgomery County Irwin Health Commissioner, announcing that no private, school or parochial school should open, because who the hell is he to make such a decision on the basis of what? What is his decision that you know, he's a bill he's a little local fascist, literally making determinations that are not in his read to the top, So we want these independent standards so that we are protected against an Cuomo base and Andrew Como should want them. For that reason, but in the old form that we had back in May. When I said when it was necessary. Politically then it would. Be deemed that we were over collar right, whether this was my formulation that that that we

could be deemed to have won. The battle were at the point at which the politics flipped on the politicians- and I thought based on Muriel Bouser DC, saying that schools wouldn't open until act after election day and the way Cuomo has disappeared. His around as we will be deemed to be over covered when Trump loses that that there is a there, is an inherent bias in blue state and with blue politicians with blue voters and the media, and everybody like that to say: then everything is terrible until the moment at which the Orange demon in the White House is extirpated,

and what about that? It's not gonna happen Cuomo, virtually maybe you know maybe, but I ran to that effect yesterday, saying that Donald Trump is a co. Morbidity of it were of covert. He is, he is the he's. The complicating factor he is, he is the problem. So we only guide. Is your saving lives by not reopening until you have a competent president in play? Certainly CDC. Does the right thing not the wrong thing? Who is in putting pressure on public health officials? No, that's actually very succinct way of expressing this this, but but that is not the game we were told was gonna, be in play months ago. But none of this has stopped Como from from from declaring victory and taking victory. Left New York has done great work

Everyone should do a we did still can't open up, but but what we ve done, it we ve killed. We ve nailed Agnes what we're talking about with regard to advance, so we should specify that the places that lockdown irrespective of their case, counts again and legal launched into our red reimposition? Lockdown measures were basically the West Coast. Unease Gust northeast, rather really dark blue Democrat heavy states where the incentives, the political incentives are to pursue. Maximum was locked on policy and there is very little incentive to pursue anything else. But it's not the case and more republican led states taxes in Florida in Arizona. What have you those governors have? Those are relevant. Governors have received some poor marks from their citizens their job, Bravo ratings collapsed as a result of the perception that they re open to early. What have you, but all

states, especially in the sand out or seeing case rates decline, as we talked about the? they are not in New Jersey in Rhode. Island isn't particularly great now over one, which has not where you want to be there all case rates are very stable and low and have been for months now. New cases in this country over the course of fourteen days are down by nine percent, and the death rate well up from May is on a downward trajectory so where's were cases rising at the fastest in this country. Hawaii genuinely nobody saw coming. So this is the theory that aims been talking forever. Is that if you didn't get your first wave, you're gonna get it eventually, no matter what it's far less deadly now than it was in April and may- and you could see it- level off and decline and not face this kind of sectors, ding deadly second wave that everybody anticipates in the fall,

and yet still have the kind of onerous lockdown measures because of these political incentives that are entirely and other to case rates and covert, and the disparity between those two things will become a source of frustration, particularly for republican vote but those independent, soaring, independently minded and was sir swing. Voters or independently minded, will look at this disparity and be very frustrated, perhaps by the restrictions that are placed on them, based on nothing other than sent him, and this again is where the media and cultural atmosphere could lower a fog on democratic politicians and the people around Biden so that they overplay their carbon hand but Trump Colombo, saying the Trump as a co. Morbidity causing covered is very much on the wine

of what he or any democratic should be saying. They can imply it. They can kinda added policies been saying something similar for the past. We have is there is a danger to them to do it. This way to say that a person in power that a person is responsible for killing people than a diseases kill, that is a line that is very tentative to cross and we know from rich thought that that swing voter focus, group stuff that we talked about yesterday. If people were listening, this, these focus groups in them in sort of like a Obama to trump territory that those people, if you think that their representative of independent voters who might go either way, did not like the idea of blaming Trump.

For that bought a form for the virus, but I'll tell you what else is risky in the in the same way. Your times coming out with an article, I think yesterday stoking fear about an to a vaccine and vaccine programme, because its associated with Trump right. So The whole question there is is the everything is terrible and trumpets. Terrible, and everything is terrible. Is that at some point our people gonna say You know what I don't wanna hear the same more like it's enough. You know he's a deal, so is that hasn't done well, fine, but you're like accusing them of being a mass murderer, and that just goes. I know you think it, but I don't think that just goes too far. I I think that is plausible and its also plausible that that attitude will not surface in

the understanding of the media and liberal Democrats and even the Biden campaign even though again they need to be looking very hard at their own assumptions about the electorate that Hillary Clinton misunderstood in and in twenty six. Team and do what they can to win back enough for those people, so that if there is a close election, they get those twenty two thousand voters in Michigan. They lost. And win by razor than margin and not seduced by the fact that he's up seventy that binds upset me thirty in California and in New York. Because we don't matter we're not going, beside the election, I'm not giving them advice. I just think that there is a kind of world view in women which seeing that post, that I put on Facebook

reminded me yet again of the fact that it is very easy to misunderstand what appears to be an open and shut case for something. If you doubt we examine your assumptions on a constantly shifting basis as the facts, the change. So that we will say goodbye till tomorrow for April stated no one jump up. Words keep the camera