« Commentary Magazine Podcast

Drowning in Panics

2020-07-21 | 🔗
The data continues to belie the notion that the country is facing a Coronavirus crisis akin to what the Northeast experienced in the spring. Also, a debate over just how sincere the nation is in its commitment to addressing “systemic racism.” And the auspicious return of Donald Trump’s COVID briefings.
This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
Welcome to the Commentary magazine Daily Podcast for Tuesday July twenty first, twenty twenty, I'm John by boards, the editor of commentary with me, as always executive, you're a Greenwell high. I John Senior redder Christine rose high Christine Associated editor, no Rossman high Noah, you're not going to hear this from anybody else. So I'm just gonna tell you and you can call me a denier all you like, but All the evidence that I am seeing digging through in this aggregating data suggests that
The Serbs, the corona virus Serbs that we have seen over the past month appears to have peaked and may be now going down and that surge, of course, is a surge not of DAS, but of cases the the obviously the death toll rose but were near where it was even in New York alone in April, and the case load appears to have peaked and is now going down state by state. So, as we said, Today, what you are seeing, but times is the argument that the in Greece in the number of positive tests indicates that we are headed for you know of a future a present we are in a disaster. We are headed for disasters on told that are following, and that is simply.
Being borne out by the data on a day to day basis, lotta day, there's been collected, is backdating information that was not added to the roles in terms of both case loads, hospitalizations and death, and so the numbers are inflated. When you say what is the change over seven fourteen or twenty one days because they are putting, in various states they are assigning desk to covered, and hospitalizations to cover that were that took place weeks and weeks ago. So that is good news and we are not getting the Good NEWS. We are not being told that it is good news and I don't want to really characterize why that would be by the people, should. Understand that increase positives does not mean that the emergency is
accelerating or upon us. We are still living in a world in which the emergency moment of April in early May is behind us and so far. There is no emergency ahead of us, based on what we ve seen over the last six weeks with the increase caseload, but without a no an exponential increase in the number of deaths. Avis particular I would say obsessed with this question, I'm obsessed with the two but yeah I mean you know. I think the problem is that were really now talking, but to actually separate phenomenon, which is, which is that there is. There are the actual numbers on which, as you say, do not warrant panic, for a new emergency, and then there is the matter
account of what's happening, which is at, which is a wholly separate issue which witches which is driving things more than the actual numbers. I think at this point, and it's gonna be very hard for these people and and institutions to let go of this forever emergency well I think one of the things that we're gonna look back on years from now about this pandemic, that world, So we are looking back on and trying to hoping to correct in the near term, with statistics on police interactions and police violence is the lack of a really credible NY database about what's going on- and I know I mean I assume there- are plenty of people in Silicon Valley right now like shaking their heads every time. You know data is discussed because we have a lot of disparate data sets. We have state by state information that isn't
it's very difficult, even comparison time state by state, because their measuring different things there testing and collating tests different ways, and I do hope that one of the reasons in some of these narratives and the more alarmist narratives are able to flourish. Is it to push back you push back with facts, but the facts that are contested as part of the narrative right, so we do need it better overarching ways to track number of cases, verses mortality rates forces all these other things in a way can be brought together in an understandable statistical model that the average American can look at and assess and judge and and behave accordingly, and that I hope, is something that will that that's a let us take away lesson from from the past. Six months, I hope, will learn in the meantime. I think the most important thing to do is to talk about death and and when we make comparisons and hear those alarmist narratives to push back and say yes, cases rising death going down. This is good news.
News run weirdness going on now it like the local level, so have you been following Texas at all here in case, so we're so Hidalgo, coming to the border, counting on a judge and dies? We have this happens. Simon, actually understand it, that a judge has issued a county wide lockdown, where curfew ten p m to fiveam all businesses incurred
to close cease. All commercial activity curbside and drive through is the only thing that's aloud and there's something of a fight now with the governors office, which is preventing us from going to affect them, does not allow local governments to enforce their own stay at home orders. They used to be able to the cat now said something of this fight now between this county and the state and its based on genuine rising caseload levels, but the positives that they have their of twelve thousand, just I'll. Just shy of thirteen thousand and over the course of the entire endemic. This county has seen just over three hundred deaths, but they're saying ambulances are now experiencing wait times in the hospitals are full and the night in the Navy teams. The point to the Rio Grande Valley reason in Hidalgo sites. It's weird
I mean I don't know how to say tat. It did through all this desperate information, tease out some sort of a coherent threat, but it's not as though there's nothing happens. I people closer to the ground appear to be frightened, but you know this is that the problem here is that this is a fallen into this false binary where you either are on Beside of this is this is nothing nothing worth getting worried about open everything up or we need a total lockdown and then and then you end up with these crazy decisions like that, and also I found a lot of the hospital overwhelmed. Narratives are. Anecdotal right, they totalling Africa, are based on the assumption that there did. They didn't know what the starting point is for a typical. I see you bed, you sweat
You're like a like something like ten percent of the bad might. Well, that's typical in certain areas for their. I see you by the way, so here's wives, anecdotal so get this their rushing refrigerated trucks to El Paso. You know to deal with that. You know the overflow from the okay, so they rushed the hospitals. Chip to New York City and nobody was on the hospital ship. They built up a hospital tent in some. A park and nobody went into the hospital tent. They made a hoss, well in the Javert Centre and nobody went to the Javert Centre that places are preparing for the possibility of a disaster, doesn't mean that the disaster has happened at in fact, time and again, the preparation for the disaster proves not unnecessary because there's nothing wrong with preparing but proves that you now that the
worst case scenario did not occur, and yet we are reporting these facts about potential preparation for the worst case scenario, as though they are responses to the two things that have already happened, and then a repeat this again. I am looking right now at the California, Doc Gov covered Statewide wide upstate site is a stave. Thirty, nine million people were the governor is threatening to walk down the whole state again and locked various counties in this and on Sunday the total number of deaths in California attributed to covet on Sunday was nine. Ok, now Aim then, fourteen day average of day of of daily new debt, is ninety one.
There were nine deaths from covered in California. The country is not a wash in deaths from covert. If it were, California would not be showing nine deaths. We are in the midst of a panic, and the question is Can the public see reason here or are we controlled by the it, and I would call it a conspiracy but again, as I think I said yesterday, it's conspiracy of people are doing it ours. It serve organic of the medical establishment, the media Democrats, and the general. Really you call it serve like the fear sector of american society altogether saying we cannot.
We must remain in this state of of hysterical vigilance. Otherwise we will loosen and then everybody is going to die. It's not a conspiracy, it's a consensus which is there Yes, there is much more dangerous the iraqi army- or they didn't know little bit about sending every moral panic, is a conspiracy of interests. Well, I guess seen from thirty thousand feet, you can say that's a conspiracy, conspiracy of interests like in visual players are not getting together and saying we need to get out. We need to be as hysterical about this as possible in order to keep the public on its guard like no one is consciously doing in that way. I would say that, of course, part of the problem here is that you know it's like me. Of these poles in this conversation and one pole is
we need to remain lockdown. Schools have to be closed in the fall. Businesses shouldn't reopen, everyone must wear a mask. Everything must be in a like this and then the other was it's all a hoax and they're both wrong and they're, both hysterical and they're, both kind of emotional responses to particular conditions, and yet the moderate view based, I think, on him on a serious and not tendentious. Effort to study. The data suggests that there is a there is a mean position between these extremes, but that it is not heard. It cannot be heard much harder message if you're, if you're thinking from the perspective of a pilot, mission, for example, for us to make these decisions, is the much harder and more nuanced and complicated position to articulate Republic that fearful and anxious and unbundling. Down for a while already because you're saying, let's, let's
up on the thing, the one thing or two things that you could do to ease your own anxiety and to feel like you're, protecting your family against this threat that we don't yet know how to control. Let's eat upon that, at the same time that we're sure that there won't be some risk. You know some slightly recent cases from that, but they might not be Della? We don't know we'd. Now we don't also so I'm a vaccine, but it's a very difficult position to articulate and its but easier to just go to one of those opposite poles, because you already have an entrenched in very active, angry loud basin, In either one that are getting a lot of you know, traction certainly an unsocial media and in the media itself I can can see why they the kind of cowardly position but understandable one from the politicians point of view suggests. Tat is closely one poor or the other, rather than trying to to thread that needle in the middle. It's much more difficult sulphur and I
As for the magazine, there's sort of a weird psychological thing that happens to at least to me, and I think it happened to many people that the longer lockdown goes on the more comfortable. It becomes, an orphan throw you become of actually returning life as normal, even if the conditions that would allow to happen or present United States but I'm afraid I've institutionalization, just that's the thing you can control and then the outside world is, has become so chaotic and unpredictable that you latch onto the thing that you have all until control over, which is your immediate local environment, eaten your house so that the people who can afford that condition it becomes a source of comfort, pretty quickly right and, of course, the people who are who are responsible for the preachment here medical status when the media status man. All of that, we are our comfortable. In that way, we are not living
oh hand to mouth the way battle of fifty percent. Racism, and I am in hand to mouth like in other classic poverty. Your hand to mouth. I mean you Who can you know who can somehow survive too so the salary or through its whatever you now in any and all that and then, of course, brings up the next political issue, which is that we are the unemployment, the six hundred dollar weak unemployment checks and, on the thirty first of July There is clearly a different problem going on in figuring out what the next anxious. Stimulus is going to be. To me- and maybe I'm crazy. I think you know I'm not an economist button. The the Trump White houses, a seizure on a payroll tax cut as the next form Stimulus strikes me as being insane
People are getting paycheck like like. First of all, apparel tax cut is Does it a on the right for a long time, as a means, I think, of changing the dynamic with entitlements in the case in which, like we can say, they are. That entitlements are now untouchable. If you can cut the peril tax, you can may be cut the payroll tax. Take you know, tat taken. You can start readjusting people's extra. Patients on the payroll tax in terms of the age in which you get Medicare medicated stuff, like that, and social security we changed, the psychology around withholding the good right had
or of your own money, anger, its tangible Rau right, not running their. Just simply does he had said I, you know, I am all for that, but I'm a, but if I am right and that this is some house or been pulled off the shelf in order to have this dual fact, it seems to me to be active insanity, if not that I you know, I'm not, I'm not a Keynesian But I do believe that in the moment at which exogenous factor shut down in all sectors of the economy the only thing that has greased us and kept us from plunging into the size of the kind of depression that we all assumed we would be in at this moment. Is this kind of You know just this up out this gun or of money coming from washington- that is keeping people at least minimally lubricated
in this economy, and if that stops on August first, you know we don't even know what the consequences of that are going. To be in terms of the survival of small businesses, which are in places where blocked out our present. Are you know? I mean it's it's it's Armageddon I mean it is it is very close to being Armageddon, obviously new Yorkers, worse than other places, but cap, Fournier Taxes, all these places where people of their own volition and without government forcing them have, you now decide their pulling. Back there not shopping the weather use do they're not going to restaurants, whether you do they can't go to Bobby theatres. Obviously, but a sporting events, and so The ancillary businesses- that's a sporting events, support around them bars around stadiums, and you know whatever tee shirts stores and teaching
hawkers and at what? However, we want to slice it like we could be looking at a w shaped recovery in the sense that there was gonna be a second wave of business closures that is gonna, be reflected, say in September, even if the virus improves. If the Washington policy response proves to be an effective and it was not an effective in March and April. So you know we're talking about a good news here and we ve been talking about sectors economy like like education, let's say where the people who work in them are actually seem to be extraordinarily desirous that they remain shut down because are not really sectors the economy. Obviously, but when we talk about actual productive sectors of the economy that were lie,
customers and clients and paying rent and paying rent landlords. I e the cascading effect could be way more we have some have been shielded from the from the worst possible effects of the pandemic. On us, and I don't know if the shielding is gonna last night to get to morose here well and Republican should not do what we ve. We aren't. I saw them let's try to do in will likely continue to try to do for for any sort of new packers. It s your congress, which is this the time to get your pet projects past right. There the time to attack on the kinds of things In a normal legislative moment, you and you know, tread of the hind another other stuff. You hide Nobel too, your agenda, threw we don't need the green new deal attached to whatever rescue package is coming through, but you do as you know, in the house, in particular the squad types and progressive lifetime.
There are already talking about all the things. They're gonna learn this new bill. Where so wish, if you're conservatives but I would know worse. I wouldn't overstate. For example, the appetite in Congress for apparel tax got as far as I know have my finger on the pulse. Then they held that from what I understand, at least in the Senate there precisely to Republicans right and something like this in Ireland the ground and the White House is pushing for it and no one's listening. Animals in the driver seat. Here, I think he's talking about a trillion dollar package and it doesn't have a whole lot of. Let's, let's structures, though, for a second, because here we go again, I mean you know not, Trump said on the Chris Wallace in the Criswell synergy that he might You know the bill if it didn't contain apparelled hats cut only that, for what reason but also out of work, and also since when does he want apparel tax cut? What is it
just Larry Cobbler says you know, would be fun. Let's do this these like. Let's do that? I think that's! It's that's simple hastily and tragically- and since when has he concerned with with federal large ass, you know that that her that's what I don't understand. I mean honestly, it's like the reason you're a rich country Not to go back to you know Joseph in Egypt, but one of the reasons you're a rich country is not just to be a rich country, so you can sit around tail. Look look at me, I'm rich, I'm, like apple. I have two hundred bill dollars and the bank. I don't know what to do with your rich country. The virtual being a rich country is that, when, when you hit at an unprecedented moment of of calamity that you have resources and capital to draw on to see if you from falling down into a well from which you cannot emerge
this is the one moment in our lifetimes when I think everybody can acknowledge that- now the money as a fire hose the country is. Fire and that there is no substitute for the fire hose and that's not keynesian ism. This is just this is emerge see large ass. And, of course, we're all going to be paying for it. I mean it's all a kind of down payment on the its money, we're borrowing from the future to solve the problem, the present, so that the problem does not. You know, continue forever into the future, but you know the bill is going to have to be paid at some point: it's not like it. Doesn't the money comes from nowhere
anyway. That's that's that that's depressing. So, let's move onto an even more depressing topic. Shall we are the topic, race, relations and social disorder, so up When do you know where, where we had the these incidents of attacks on federal buildings and federal officers, responding to the attacks on federal buildings and being called the storm troopers and Jack booted dub. You know SS agents or whatever, but by people, like God, Nancy Policy, the speaker of the house, which is really great, that she is calling federal play storm troopers. I would like to hear what she would have had to say about that the kind of things that you said about that when people said that about the FBI and eighty often people like that around Waco, Ruby Ridge. Nonetheless, ah this attack on the legitimacy
the federal response in Portland has been, I think, a wild success in that now you now, basically again the meteor proffered narrative about how terrible this isn't and it worked like it got: the feds to respond in here we are in the end. We got these the federal official, Those two sound like caricatures of you, no sound like other than the jock fraternity and revenge of the nerves, or something and- and here we are at one thing- I want to say here, because we often use word narrative on this podcast disable the narrow media narrative here or the trunk demonstration narrative there. The progressive narrative there, but this particular episode show you if you watch in real time how a narrative is constructed. So if you look at the New York Times, coverage of Portland, for example,
for the last fifty days during all these years, skirmishes with anarchists in sort of anti, far types that have broken away and done much more damage than the traditional blacklist matter, protesters that largely peaceful, although not always you- they have covered that that graffiti and destruction almost not at all the men that's that federal officers were sent to protect federal buildings, including a court house in Portland That had been one of the main targets for these groups about the ten or eleven articles appeared and in those articles, federal protective service officers were referred to often as troops. There, not troops, are not military, they are officers, they are federal law enforcement officers. They were called unaided. Fine, even though they clearly marked police on their here, who forms they were accused of kidnapping when in fact what they were doing was typical detention of lobbying
Can people for further questioning and then really processing and release. They were doing what federal officers are supposed to do in their jobs, the coverage of what they were doing. And from nothing and also in this coverage. It should be noted that focuses entirely the behaviour of the federal officers and rarely see. For example, Michel Gothenburg is New York Times. Opinion column today doesn't about why they were sent there in the first place. It's it's imply. I thought they were sent, thereby Trump as a political stunned to make him look tough, and maybe there some truth to that from transport of you, but they dont discuss the fifty haze of rioting, destruction, the absolute unwillingness of local officials to us Japan and do anything about this, it's all is it we are starting with a blank canvas and horrible fascists. You know booted storms
suddenly descended on innocent Portland people and started kidnapping Americans off the street, and that narrative was carefully constructed over the course of the last couple of once and its appalling its appalling to watch a play out and I'm quite frankly shocked that there aren't more Americans who would embrace that with little or who do embracing rather treated with the scepticism with which it deserves. I'm saying that as someone who is not very comfortable with how all those federal officers have been behaving, on the streets and end have questions about the legality and oversight of this kind of interaction. When you have federal officers on in local places, and you can be discomfort by the objects of it, because I think you're right that the optic sir, I meet. Those members of the Department of Homeland Security have said rather explicitly that they're trying to seek an optical contrast with the local officials, who are very deferential to these,
violent protesters and perhaps over reached in pursuit of that, we have no evidence that the exceeded their jurisdictional authority where their legal authority, as you said Christine, I think that's right. Both of these things can be true. You can be does nothing to buy the object, this sort of thing, and also acknowledged that is perfectly lawful, But you have, I mean statements from people like Speaker, Nancy Pelosi who says this is indicative of a banana republic and I of organs. U S Sanders who said these are quite authoritarian tactics and they are coaches, only reminiscent of autocratic governments that disappear. Critics and opponents now has been disappeared. These media's had access to these people at least most of them that I've seen who worked Miranda. Ized had access to Returning is released. Remember cognizance! That's the rule of law in this country, the pursuit the rule of law, and if our media landscape was not completely dysfunctional so loosely rubbed into its core
Then you would see some kind of a criticism of these people in the over reach that we're seeing in their pursuit of a political narrative but they're all on board ever one is on board with the mission statement here and the mission statement is whatever gets, trunk gets drop. This need and why I have to say back when Trump clear the the protesters outside the White House to make it with the tear gas and and what not to eat, to make his walk across to the church to hold the Bible, and everyone is outraged. This is why I didn't take that terribly seriously, because I had the suspicion
What that any aggressive federal response had any point was going to elicit insane overreaction right well, so there is an idea abroad and are ideological community that what we are seeing should be provoking A counter reaction among shocked, electorate, ah abiding Americans, who will simply not tolerate the existence of this kind of mass violence, and I agree that you would think that that would be the way that it would come. You know it would serve shakedown.
Certainly a Czech shut down that way in the nineteen, sixteen and nineteen seventies, but, as I think this through, I think that there is a very fascinating change in the in the make up of the United States that has interfered with that have. When the city's caught fire pretty much in nineteen sixty and when the crime wave hit in the cities in the late sixties, People in America were much more connected to the sea. He's than they are now sounds like that shouldn't be the case, because we are more were all people were farmers and all of that, but that is actually a misunderstanding of how of the American make up a lot. More people worked centre in the center city. Even if they didn't live. The city a lot more people had
Relatives who were still the parents who are still living in cities, alot of people a lot more people lived in cities. Then live in cities now or lived in the suburbs at directly were ring the city, and there was no escape for them crime waved the disorder. The decay was all present. It was something that threaten them personally threatened their relatives and was a thing that then, over the next twenty five years, spread not only from the cities to the ring suburbs, but out further
in a general atmosphere of disorder that took over the United States really for thirty years. But I think most people are not experiencing the violence and are only watching it from remove, even if its characterized correctly so that they are, they don't feel the threat there seeing stuff and they may not like it, but it doesn't have the visceral impact that it had that altered the nature of american politics from the late sixties through the early ninetys, and I am going to push back and then a little that because I think it might be no offense over thought, slightly. I've been poring over. This can be seen news Wall Street Journal, Paul, which is getting came out two weeks ago, but he's getting some press today, because the writing up the racial aspects of racial aspects of it are a merry
in some sort of Americans. Think those countries, racist plurality, think its stomach and institutional racism. More people are in favour of black lives matter. Protest. More people are in favour of kneeling. The whole country is moving in that direction right shore buried within the bull s eye. The most important aspect of which is this this statement, the protests on racial issues are creating social unrest and bringing to much change to the country, including a recent America's history and significant figures in this country story that majority proposition. Fifty percent of the public said yes in the they involve it, says everybody's racist. This whole countries racist get rid of it. So it's not as though this isn't resonating with a majority of the american public even and uphold that has particularly favourable to his narrative. Ok, but you know what can I do? once one thought on that, which is that in it not
you're both right, but in a way it could be a little bit above rain. So it's not that they they want to see this country is moving and constantly moving forward on racial issues and trying to come to more equality and doing better, etc, etc. So, yes, you sport black lives matter, because you know and other recent unrest is is concerned. For people? On the other hand, they don't like conflict peep Americans from the conflict in the especially don't like conflict close to home. We are a nation of indies and I have been struck, John by how many people who live in cities, like Portland in Seattle, feel compelled to a New York and easy to post pictures social media, saying people say: are our cities being torn apart? No look, it's fine. This is you know it's just this. For block radius for this tiny little bit here, they're! So there's a weird kind of NIMBY Ism going on where I think they can feel remote from it and so from this actually good if you're, not a crazy lefty, when they
a federal troops that they might say well. This might need to happen for that one little portion of the of the city, the signal then ran bunches. But you know it's not really about us. We just want at all to stop soon. I mean it, I'm sorry manner of increasing earth. Just I think I pull also supports it tension to if you get a little analytical with it, because this thing says: ok, this institution, the systemic. But it also shows that two thirds too. There are fully sent me percent of all respondents, said their superhero with the way things are going now and how redressing racism you haven't done a damn thing to address institutional system. If you really believe that institution, in this country are shot through with Ray the bias and systemic discrimination, you wouldn't be happy with the state of affairs, there has been no systemic reform like recycling they like causing ex exactly and without an injury after there's a lot of cosmetics for you, the latch onto if it's a sentiment, not a policy
now is not a particular set of policies you want actually pursued, and your accusing me of everything you're like beginning in tertiary aspects. There are no reasons we do say archaic, but on a national level, not accusing you everything. I think this is all interested, but one of the things that it indicates as poles with wildly contradictory data often do as the people. Don't people don't have consistent answers on these questions, necessarily because this is in the way they think about things, and there asked questions that pop has it certain theoretical approaches to life, and so when they hear one, they say one thing and when they hear another they say and other end.
They're saying or in Ireland they think they should snack? Ok, let me put it this way. Let's take Chicago right. Chicago has been a wash in a murder wave for three or four years terrible right, and we all talk about. Why? Don't people talk about cargo wise and go all that if you do not live in the bad areas of Chicago where the crime is taking place, you have no idea that it is happening. That was not true in the cities in America. Fifty Ago, which is the template that a lot of us think about particularly for older when we're look Yet this in saying will surely the public isn't gonna respond to this? was no isolation, because the murder wet rate was accompanied. Monks and burglaries and vandalism and cars being it Windows being smashed in, and people being held up at gunpoint and all
that crime was up and down happening right what's happening now is the most tragic, not that it's the most tragic as the runway put it, but like at that, particularly tragic way in which, when the crime rate rises and when cities become unsafe, it is the poorest at least eight people who are least able to isolate themselves from it, who feel it the most and they are also the people who, despite the efforts to put them up, give them the most attention that you possibly can go uncovered an undisguised for the most part in this way, because there then turns there is a nervous ness about the portrayal of crime being something in which minorities are
packing minorities, and that is going to encourage bad thoughts about minorities, and you need to put it into context and all of that, and so there is a risk resistance and a reluctance toward covering these sorts of things in a way that could raise the consciousness. Of people, about how dangerous this descent into anti know me and realistic depravity is over the last. You know eight weeks and I dont know how that can right itself. But I am just saying like that that phenomenon of thinking not in my backyard- that's that's real like it I mean it is. You know there was this one moment, those two days after there was her two days of rioting where the riders were your neighborhood. The riders were, I wasn't here, but the riders were in my neighborhood. They were a names neighborhood, but they're gone now, they're, not there
and they aren't doing it any more, and so you could then go back into this entirely theoretical. Yes, everything is racist and the cops are really unfair black people the general rule and all of that It's no skin off your nose, so your we being asked it as though it's happening to other people like being asked an opinion about. What's what's going on, I mean this is ridiculous analogy subways, but, like your ass, like what about the political situation, Russia will. Maybe you have a view? Maybe you don't have a view. You can probably answer a question of somebody's ass to free, but what what difference does it make tee? Really it doesn't really make all of us. But but what happened? What role does what I mean Chicago, maybe a separate story, but in New York, for example, when when crime was at its worst it it did it didn't. It wasn't contained
Tis to certain minority precincts him Johnny, you ve written about the upper West side of youth and so saw Bello famously wrote about the criminally in the late, the upper side sandwich planet happens when it seems out into into all sorts of neighborhoods meanwhile ever dot. Yet then it got I mean that's the question that we are facing is: will people I'm just saying we looked at this and it would have been a political presumption just you know yet a couple years ago that any kind of surge and crime could be disastrous for the left. The plaza felt this way deposit gets elected, that he becomes a mare and twenty fourteen and he is the most left wing person who has ever held office in New York City, and he did
everything he could hired a tough on crime police. Commissioner, he did and they did what they could to keep the crime rate down. Even though they stopped stop and for us because he knew that it was destructive to him. Now he doesn't care about crime, I was gonna say, doesn't give something about crime, but I decided to before pull and crime is going on in he's, like you know, what matters painting a black lives matter slogan in front of trauma tower: that's all he cares about it, then of peoples will paint on it. You paint it over again. They will not destroy our mural are floor for Europe, but there's this also there's another piece of this too, which is that we're too, sing at a national level new series that used to be confined sort of more small, progressive cities that were willing to do this sort of experimentation with law enforcement. So you see these calls in places like The apple is to have you know to abolish the police and instead have these crisis intervention types
You see the push back when actually people in the first ring suburbs. At many atlas. There is a big story about this. You don't starts as experience, quality of life crimes right, vagrancy robbery or get a sort of petty thefts, people shooting drugs in their neighborhood, in setting up homeless, encampments and their torn, because there's posted by into this ideological theory about law enforcement, but their real life. Experience of this, it's dangerous to take their kids to the park now, because third news needles there and similarly amene than your posts, have this incredibly tragic story of this woman who you know call it went and tried to talk to some guys who were setting off illegal fireworks and keeping her awake and even your housing project and wet and tried to talk to them, rather than calling the cops on them and they shot her. They killed her and the person who killed her was a sort of notorious gang member who, you know is well known by law enforcement and she did what she
advice to buy her local political leaders, which is less, are involved. The cops and all these things go talk to your neighbours. Will that's what she didn't. She ended a dying for its. I think it s those even well intentioned liberal people who think cop shouldn't be called for every reason, as they have more of these real life experience, where they suddenly find themselves without a means to compel another citizen to abide by the same rule of law. They all claim to embrace. That's also gonna change things, because I feel like we haven't this brief period. That's different from the sixties were more people are keen specific styles of reform, but it don't but the moral panic around the plague there's a moral panic around race in this country. The notion now expressed in the same survey that I'm talking about that in the tea. Ninety, only thirty six percent of African Americans said they felt discriminated against, whereas today it's in the eighties a moral panic around the plague there's a moral panic or race in this country. The notion now x in the same survey that I'm talking about then in nineteen,
Andy. Only thirty six percent of African Americans said they felt discriminated again, whereas today it's in the eighties, that is perception all and that, as a result of a series of incidents of societal pressures that compel you d say certain things, because there rewarded and the alternative is punished and stigmatized, and then they consequences for getting on the wrong side of that issue are tangible and real, and we hear about them every day, but this is work, but this is you and I disagree a little bit because, yes, it it's about reward system, but I think the analogy between them: the pandemic. In the end, the racism panic also carries over into the fact that both instil genuine personal fear and panic end in person. In that it's not just about. Oh I'm, I'm supposed to show my virtue by wearing a mask and supposed to show my virtue by recognising that
that by saying that, I recognise in America's racist, it's also well, I don't. I don't want to die so going to wear masks and I dont want I don't want to be a racist, so what we have to do something I need to be cleansed and for this I think in both cases people are genuinely being convinced not just covering themselves for public opinion. Sick. I mean you, don't wait, there's no way to resolve this disagreement except to see what he's out over the next couple of years. That is to say they may be right. Now you may be right the entire conversation around crime may shift. If crime gets worse, I think one can only presume that is going at worst is class, the classic formula, which is a few subsidize something you get more of it, your subsidizing crime by refusing to intervene, intercepted or interdicted,
it's an effective subsidy, so we'll get more of it, whereas if you, if you prevented you, get less myths. And then we'll see what the real world consequences are. Gonna, be because this this argument this, where it is very similar to the Sixtys, which is to say, of course, there was. A genuine either we really were the Civil Rights ACT, had only passed in nineteen. Sixty four and then the entire of liberal establishment of the United States, which was which was. A wash had been a watchword for for fifteen years in a kind of wild enthusiasm that there were can be legislative solutions that were going to fix these problem legislative and judicial solutions that were going, repair America's great stain and bring us on Wait wonderful new path, and we had the court decisions of the fifty sixties and we have the civil rights after the Voting Rights ACT and then
the fact that immediately, but in the eight years the followed was not a kind of our, we have a new Rachel harm me that his approach in the United States, but worst division, worst division, worse effects. Why that happen is vastly complicated question that Campi answered so so simply, but that optimism just vanished with the riots and sixty eight and with them and the city's on fire, and it would that wasn't supposed to happen. It was supposed to happen. Was America was supposed to have improved itself using the methods of sore progressive governance and it didn't happen, and they didn't know what who were say about it, except a double down on the idea that we need to keep fixing things. We have to keep fixing that we need to. If so, if we work and quotas in nineteen. Sixty four now we're gonna before quotas in nineteen sixty nine. You know we were again
the bussing now we're gonna before bussing. We are against this now before this, because, what's o r r r answers didn't pay off, and yet we can't then start questioning whether the answers were flawed or whether the approach wasn't the right approach or whether we were just being incredibly patronized in condescending in the notion of saying now we're gonna grand Everybody all these freedoms and there's gonna, be so grateful that they're all just gonna go quietly and calmly and an and doesn't vote for us and everything will be nice. You know that's and also not the way people when you win you start acknowledging the grievances of people that doesn't come necessarily it it can actually heighten and inflame those grievances. Maybe justifiably I mean the inner. This is again a complexity of human nature. So I think that what were
the sea is this. There will be a kind of reckoning about this when these, solutions that are proffered, and we see this even now. There is a story- the New York Times today about corporations reaching out to black artists. You know, in the wake of all the riots, to get them to produce murals on their stores and to do this and to do that to an there's, an interesting flavouring here, because what they're doing is, on the one hand, there trying to address a problem that they now believe, I think as Abe would say, they believe in their hearts is right. It's right that the black lives Matter- and this is terrible- things are happening to black people and we have been systematically denying them their equality it. So we're gonna do what we can with the money that we have to try to express our sought, support and solidarity,
so they mean that and on the other hand, is unbelievably condescending. It's like ok, you know we have to put up a pie, would sing in front of our story so that its not taught in us so that it doesn't get torn down. Can you come and paint a nice picture on it? so it look. It doesn't look so ugly and I will pay you money and then we can basically claim that we are with you in spirit and the artists, that are complaining about it are complaining about it and interesting way, which is what are they expect ya, so they're getting commissions because they're suddenly fashionable and popular that's how it works, but they don't want that cuz, they feel kind of send it to, like anybody else. They want to be celebrated not for the color of their skin, but for the content of their kind
are there work or something like that really, and so you know this reckoning is happening in every which direction. But it's not going to happen fast enough, in my view, for it to affect the election. That's why that's why? I think that this idea that people have that Trump is going to be elected on the basis of the public disorder of nineteen of nine a twenty twenty is it is, it is, it saw delusional hope, but it's a hope that is just not being borne out by any evidence that we can see. That shows that he seems to be losing rather gaining support as it as far as the troubles metastasized there is an interesting thing he's trying to do this, where He'S- I don't know, I guess it's like an attempt to become like the masked warrior facilities. He's posted image of himself in this very pro mask wearing thing,
at the same time that you know he's he's been quite belligerent in his rhetoric about sending federal officers to these cities where they're still continued unrest, so wondering I mean whoever is thinking that that that mix messaging is gonna. Work is really interesting to me, because the people who find the the of law and order message? Appealing are not the same people who find the mass wearing message appealing so he's clearly see and what's that, out there this week with his hand of public persona I really found the mask tweet data that if you sign it, sort of this very much real men where mass kind of thing interesting from him.
So Trump is going to begin these briefings today, and this is the real question right. Is he going to talk about coronas, going to talk about good news about the you know about the vaccines? Are the treatments that's going on, which is what we were Sir told yesterday he was going to do, or is he going to default and start talking about how he's going to send troops into other cities? Cuz everything went to so swimmingly in Portland, we'll talk of this comes by the way on the heels of a story. About my mind is I can even a fathom this that the Washington Post story. That says that, since twenty seventeen, which is effectively when the reelection effort began the earliest of all reelection effort, the trot Trump campaign has spent a billion dollars. They spent a billion dollars to go from forty two percent to forty percent in the national Paul's and too
obviously meltdown and all these Paul's in this hour across the states, a billion dollars, and can we just that's a billion they ve spent a billion dollars, whereas money. What was that money spent on these idiot emails? I get asked me to join the platinum card to flood further from top twenty two, that warning you're gonna be dropped. If you don't act now, act now I mean it's where you really start getting into. Oh, this is really great. You know the whole point. That's one of the reasons. The Trump's campaign was so impressive in twenty. Sixteen is that he spent less money. He spent sixty million dollars less Getting the nomination than Job Bush got EF. I dropped out. You know, after after three weeks of voting. Job was one hundred and forty one million dollars. I think Trump spent seventy six million right, Wet Rubio spent
at the same crew spent about the same an trump spent. You know literally almost half as much as they did and got the nomination. That was a proof that this movement was real, that his support was real and all of that area spending a billion dollars to know fact whatsoever. Well, at least according to the post David Byrne called, who probably the best business at this. Quite a first have to share the trunk campaign. Something in recent days have been going back in June the Trump Organization in two days to the tune of thirty three hundred eighty, eighty thousand dollars which a drop in the bucket compared to a billion dollars in everyone's gonna, say well, not that much my, but it's a lot of rigging money and is going back There are good luck to question you really have to ask. Is they spend a billion dollars over three years, so few average that out or three enough here? So it's like three hundred million dollars a year that all went for like a facebook campaign.
Their expensive things a campaigns, do they print things? They male things, they throw events. They do this you that literally none of that has been happening for a year prep pretty much, So, where that money going into whose pockets is that money going how's, that money being distributed, Miss yet the power scale deaths. Are we as the wrenches for that must have been rooms at four, a m what happens now anyway. If I were I, this is another whether things or if the tsar only knew I mean in some ways I hope the trump you now has gotten his taste and is getting a cut, because Otherwise, even the last refuge of of Trump serve like emotional support, which is that he's a business man who knows what he's doing that? Basically he's been fleeced. A bye, bye, bye,
a machine that has been raising a billion dollars and spending a billion dollars in his name. That is that it is totally at best, ineffectual and at worst, but it's basically just a kind of club but it's just trump stakes all over again. Right he's actually not a good business, but I think this is the real reason he doesn't want to. Tax returns ever to become public, as it shows is, threats, as he ever claim to be and the trouble just like Trump, it's fine he's he's happy to throw money at something that has his name on it and that flatters his ego. Even as it. You know a more level headed person, my girl, who really losing a lot of money here, because he'll just spend it is some. You know either conspiracy against him or an actual success when its clearly a failure
I'm here. I do think that is in his campaign has been run similar to some of those other branded businesses and not very successfully. So what are we figures? Gonna happen today at five o clock using. I think you will talk up progress on treatments and vaccine and try in his way to bring some measure of calm to the all the discussion of the EU that did the new cases and then we'll be baited into going off the rails on Portland and similar matters. His own administration is contradicting itself when it comes to what
The world is gonna. Look like in the fall Anthony Fouche is out there saying whenever maxim listing. He can say at this particular moment the sir, in general is now saying that cannot open schools unless you have a reason background transmission rate, which presumably would mean that the northeast can open up schools right, a kind of doubt it in part because this idea is based on this theory that you need minimal, if not zero, new covert cases in order to reopen these institutions? presents gonna go out there today and happy talk it and try to talk up reopening because that's his focused, but it takes it would require you to be very selective in your observations of health. Administration is behaving, thank speaking with one voice. It is not at all over the map right eye. I think he's gonna have to start with some sort of like you know, self reference,
the child. You know I had to come back and do this because the cut you know he's he's gotta explain why he stopped doing the briefings and is now returning to them, and maybe I agree with no, I think he's gonna play up the optimists except in there actually is really really for the Times, and really good news about what the immunology at Oxford had been doing with regard to a vaccine trial so there is good news and- and I for one would be happy to haven't said. Unfortunately, what it means is that in a half the countries can immediately believed that he's lying or that that new citizens busy says he is but like Abe, I think, he's probably can't resist being baited into some sort of side conversation and though he could resisted by not taking questions. Doesn't have to take questions. He can do it every wants and walk off stage whenever whenever he wants, there is this idea abroad that maybe he is remembering that he quieted the twitter feed down from the moment
at the access Hollywood tape head through the elect, and that, particularly after the reopening commies reopening of the investigation at the end of October, that he just let things play out and didn't try to interpose himself in that story, which must have been hard for him, because he surely thought that it was just location, everything that he had done, I mean this question is: is he doing this to signal that he is changing gear, that he is shifting gears and there's gonna? Try what will see it now changing their. Whether I mean it, you're gonna, be on that at the press conference. There is no way
catch I'm going up the directive. There is no way that factual May at the preparations, or maybe anybody else except I'm really. I am, I wouldn't be surprised if he was there, but I think I think this is smart of him, because I think it was ill advised when he stopped the debt The task force briefings to begin with. I know he had run its all sorts of trouble with them, but at least he was out there visible, so things the country could argue about what he said after endlessly. But that was better for him, even at its worst then disappearing and being absentee on this issue. Anything is better than that. I think for for his political fortunes. Wrought rust, as a consequence which he in which he says that there is nothing the trunk conducive to improve as political fortunes, that the only thing that will save him are then
that that move things up in his favor, and I I kind of believe that in this, which is my guess, is that he is he is, is down. As far as he's going to go that it is, if you take the worst of all polls, which is that one that has them at like thirty six percent or something like that, that's about as far down as he can possibly go, Bush got the Bush senior got thirty, eight percent in nineteen. Ninety two granted there was a pearl and thereby you can't really imaginary by going anything going lower than that and you can imagine how he can re inflate, but it's not clear that he can reinflame himself. That is that it. Maybe he can't draw the distinction between him and by bunkers. He has it hasn't done. Well, maybe he can't
a case for himself, but maybe events can conspire to make a case if the vice Press does start to vanish and we began this with the news that the stats are much better than you are here, ring not that they suggest a vanishing, but they suggest that that we are not going through some kind of sex surge or surge or something and other places that is, you know, gonna get killed, thousands upon thousands upon thousands of people a day, but maybe that is proud in our approach the precedent for the virus fading in in its life. Reality at serve a reality and then maybe other events will conspire to help may be binding will trip. You know, maybe by will say something that say. I've
so senile that no one can avoid seeing it may be. Something will happen in the debate that makes by the look, absolutely horrible who now so, but then it's it's an especially good time for trumped resumed the daily briefings, because if, if the viruses on the downturn, he can you can begin talking about that and take the credit for that having having been absent for the worst of it. Perhaps okay. So we will probably be talking about the briefing tomorrow morning and we will be back to you then for Noah Christine and a bomb John outward skip. The cavern
Transcript generated on 2020-08-02.