Welcome to the commentary magazine podcast today is Monday. May six, two thousand nineteen I'm John path towards the other of commentary magazine with me as always: senior editor aid Ringwald high aid, I jump

Socio editor nor Rossman high. Now a hygiene and senior writer Christine Rosen in Washington, high Christine. I can commentary magazine, of course, these seventy audio monthly of intellectual analysis, political probity, cultural criticism. From a conservative perspective, we invite you to join Us Economic Area magazine that come where we give you a few free weeds and then ask you subscribe. Ninety. Ninety five for a digital subscription and twenty momentum, five for an all access subscription, including our beautiful monthly magazine in your mailbox eleven times a year. So We seem to have the world or the Middle EAST seem so narrowly averted a full out war between Israel and Gaza the Gaza this weekend of forces in Gaza, Hamas and or Islamic Jihad or Islamic Jihad, but not Hamas, not clear fire. Out of nowhere. Six hundred rockets at Israel to vary important

developments here, one, is that the iron Dome Missile defence system, which has miraculously almost miraculously protected Israel from me from the right barrages from Gaza over the last five years, did not work very well. This time, for whatever reason, end, apparently only intercepted about a quarter of the missiles that were fired, where if you remember in twenty fourteen, when a lot of the missile barrages work aimed directly at TEL Aviv. It was a serve astonishing. Thousands of rockets and almost none hid any intended. But what would have appeared to be any kind of intended target of a major population centre, so something's, going on with iron dome that has been exposed as a weakness There are theories now that iron dome may have led Israel into a state

of mild complacency, that rather like. If you want the analogy rather like how one hears now that dumb, the introduct the helmet into tackle football has actually increase the danger of brain injury concussion, because people think we're players think that are protected from it went in they are not. It may well be that having a somewhat successful missile defence system, the missiles themselves get more sophisticated, but the system itself doesn't prove in relation to the missiles. Then you could have a situation in which you are relying too heavily on this. You know well, defence from above are really vulnerable, so Israel now has to do a serious. Forensic examination of what's going on there so in that sense that maybe them a favour, but

We, when we talked yesterday amongst ourselves about what we're gonna do with this podcast, I sort of assumed that there was going to be a war, because Baby Netanyahu made this extraordinarily belligerents speech. Sunday morning, in which he said, you have twenty four hours and he said we sank Hamas and Islamic Jihad for doing what the Jews kitten with what never happens to Jews, which is uniting us all in Israel under one banner, which is that we cannot allow this to continue and if you do not rely and surrender within twenty four hours we are going to. You know him you, with the full force of this country's. You know, rage and and defense and all the soap. It was a little hard to imagine that there was going to be a backing down because it was such a

direct threat to other wrote. You called the manhood. Of the M of the gardens that it was hard to see that they were gonna relent and yet apparently, with the intersection of Egypt and gutter, I think I'll be where there's a cease fire was achieved and it's interesting is the cease. Fire was not achieved. Patently supposedly there's going to be some kind of face, saving money, question about how to help the Gazans, because their suffering so much or whatever, but appear that Israel played any particular role in this fire. Exactly it's more like they just announced we're gonna stop firing the missiles and it's so far today its holding. So that's my summary. Ah. A body is: what do you think? What strikes me is that, with.

An american government whose not interested in playing be through palestinian game any more with a whole host of Sunni Arab Kingdoms, who are no longer sympathetic to the palestinian cause and the way they were and, in fact, allied and in some serve secret and some less secret ways wit with Israel. In fact, there's big expo Happen in Dubai. Israel is actually a fish be taking part in into by which is good extraordinary, Stepan of itself. Any all these things feed the diminishing of the Palestinians, cause. Globally, it seems that they are desperately striking out to extort real other countries

in the sort of real rogue, eight fashion, now raids on the border of launching missiles. Willy nilly really is giving up all pretence of governing within Gaza. This is a sort of plea, I think I sort of his should affirm. Are there they ve been so marginalized, rightly that they think they're there. There should be some ways more explosive now. Well I mean it's important. Another were only talking about Gaza right, we're not talking about, but on the West Bank, in its sunni sponsors throughout the region, then this coincides with. When I imagine has to be some pretty firm intelligence from the that, the administration has suggesting that there are going to be some around sponsored attacks on american interests in Iraq, the threat

she elements that are controlled by Turann, which prompted the administration late last night to move a carrier group, some some bomber support into the region to intimidate and deter around. I suspect that there is a link there, because what else would have prompted this spectacular increase? Hosty love we built, we know, there's a link because from whatever we can read the key rocket fire. Now is not Hamas, which is thee governing entity of of Gaza, but but Islamic Jihad, which is directly, which is a direct. Subsidiary organization of Thee I urge you see the Iranian Revolutionary Guard CORE, which was last week. There was last week the ice explicitly named it as a terrorist organisation, thus requiring sanctions are means,

but this is why it is so difficult to have conversation around this issue with any. As affinity, because this kind of the distinct between these two territories, which are functionally completely distinct states, you turn but the West Bank and Gaza. They have different governments saved foreign policy. Is they have different sponsors? They have different approaches to social organizations of the really different states but that new ones which even call it a nuances insulting to new ones but that new ones is lost in the discussion of these issues, and I want to read briefly from the New York Times dispatch on this published about, fifteen hours ago in in the paper this morning, to perhaps briefly as much as they load one another. They are also codependent the times. Israel's government and Hamas, Hamas uses defence of Israel to portray itself as the true voice of palestinian resistance. The Israel's right wing government exploits Gaza's and ruling this to argue that it lacks a partner for peace.

Second, paragraph cooling, Marconi whose analysed with the international crisis group quote. The fury of this weakens fighting reflected pent up palestinian frustrations over Israel, show slope pace in easing restrictions that have sent the densely populated and impoverished territory into economic freefall and then later goes on to demonstrate that there are no shortages of of goods or food in the strip, but the audit of capital, and they need

monetary assistant. I mean this argument is so insane in this case. It is this: is it the driver conversation when you not talking about what the actual intimating forces are anyway, rockets are fired by suffering people ready Rock Rogoff rockets are fired by people who are trained by organizations to know how to fire rocket. That means that they are at the very least paramilitary, and indeed our environments with food actual military anyway. It's ridiculous. This is not some expression of pent up prostration of the gods and population. There is something larger and more geopolitical going on here about IRAN and Israel, and the truth is that the whole notion that Israel somehow needed this now Israel is not focused on Gaza. Israel is not focused on let unless Israel is focused on the roof, structuring and creation of the new government after the election that was just held, and they are you know the last thing that

than anybody want to re. Bbn now does not need a war with Gaza right now he won the election. He is trying to form the government and in full act. If anything, he doesn't need pressure, pushing him to the right. There's plenty, a pressure, pushing him to the rights already in what ministries is gonna hand off to home, so that this whole, I don't know what you would call its spiritual metaphorical Tolstoy, an argument that what happens militarily on the part Gaza is is, is a is a coal is a collective unconscious expression of the film feelings and emotions of the people of Gaza is so low Chris, that it you know that only resorting to it in an effort to create some kind of moral equivalence between between them. People who are sitting around just like you know having

dinner and the people who are firing. Six hundred rockets at them is, you know, is an act of moral idiocy, but that that this is exact Hey how this debate is playing out, certainly in the mainstream media in many western countries, right to mean that the thing that never gets brought up in these discussions, I mean, let's all consider me- we know what the Hamas charter says, but the Hamas charter is not just about the destruction of Israel. It is about the destruction of the Jews. It's it's very fraud that Hamas has no interest in any sort of two: a solution, no interest in a peace process. We know this is a terrorist organisation, and yet, if you look at the way, both paragraphs that that no I just read for the New York Times or any of the coverage in the last twenty four hours, thirty six hours you'll see this discussion of a humanitarian crisis. The humanitarian crisis is real, but that is not going on here, and that is not what the focus of of a good,

realistic assessment of what's going on right now in Gaza should should be an you write to the moral equivalency is astonishing, but I should not astonishing, because we ve been saying this for years when it comes to covering Israel and in the Middle EAST in general, but I think that it's it's extremely important, especially as Americans read about this conflict and consider it too remember, go back and re read the the charter. If anyone has any any doubt in their mine what this is about separate from the larger political issues with IRAN right now, that's what they need to do in that. Actually, what good reporter should be doing is reminding readers that this is not about big bad Israel. Beating up on the poor. People in Gaza That is not what this is about. One point that the humanitarian crisis that I'm Christine points out

is also the view that the fault of the leadership in Gaza, of course, exactly there there there you know they the vase. They send Susie civilians too, to the to the two to storm the border they hide and in hospitals. Were the leadership hides ending. You know been basements when, when the wind, the, when the missiles come down, but when the israeli retaliation comes down, they had another point by loss of airport, as this is also the another. What started this was a sniper attack on two israeli soldiers right. That's right right over there, you even have the impetus. So there was a minister in the cabin- and I forget what happened what posting occupies, but we said basically that if there were more hostilities that this there has to be an end game here in the Indian would be to crush the regime, remove the regime and that scene. Pretty fraud, because this is a

I mean if there was two thousand seven, but this was a duly elected regime and is supported broadly by the populace. So you know you were basically committing to another occupation and one that tone probably is is open, and then that is the whole point which is that is re. Israel does not. There are Israelis, who say? We have to do this because if we don't go in and totally extirpate, Hamas is rule and take. This is never going to end the rocket phrase. Never gonna am baby yeah who does not want to send ground forces into Gaza he's twice. He doesn't want to do it again. It doesn't work, he does not want to reoccupy Gaza. This is a and- and you know this is part of the joke- of the idea that he is so extremely so right wing and he so crazy in is a crazy person and only once whose destroy the Palestinians.

As ever, as is always the case with him, he is a cautious and prudent person, and you know he knows very well that it takes very little to Tipp something from you know. We gotta go in there and do this has worked the strongest and it's internationally and you know what what happens if you actually had Israelis having to do door to door fighting in Gaza, which is that which is a highly concentrated in urban population and is not a pleasant place to do such things and the the national consensus in favour of the total elimination of Hamas in the and the are we act with wood would would end pretty quickly if things to get really Harry, in fact not to be. Israel has lived with this calculation since ninety forty nine, which is at what level

my of minor or you know, of not minor. But you know what level of harassment terrorist harassment. Do you accept as low level part of what it means to live in this region and do things? And if you read like Michael Orange six days of war, really superb book about the about this? About the eighteen sixty seven six day war, he gins and nineteen sixty four with a series of Palestinian, not with you know that powers fighting over captain, Syria and Jordan and the arab states, but a but with terrorist attacks on the israeli North by the newly formed Palestine Liberation Organization, and how this this moment put Israel into the mind. That's that they were gonna have to go back to their. It's probably going to be another war,

because things are starting to heat up in jail. Israel has had to make these calculations about palestinian violence against them forever, meaning. Ok, it's terrible Rockets fire, it's terrible! It's terrible to live and stare out its now. The real danger now is that these rockets are increasing their range and thus obviously challenging iron domes competency, but. Their willing to allow that, rather than mobilizing, assess how hundred the thousands of people in a civilian you know in an army that made up a lot of civilian reserves in order to in order to continue life, and that's part of provocation that Gazans. Now, when the Palestinians now witches that Israel is belligerent, but that it's not nodded its trigger happy, but that it's not that they are forcing

hard political military decisions on on Israel and a lot of it is that kind of like hey you not paying enough attention to me, pay more attention to me the great line in the New York Times that keep coming back to this report, as it was so you're aggravating rose decision this weekend to resort to target and killing signals. It's ready wrecked its readiness for ground war and was a reminder of the country's low tolerance for the loss of civilian life. No tolerance, unlike that, first of all it has. It has clearly not tolerate a whole lot of civilian. Let me know how my right, but that is the reverse of the truth. Israel has a high tolerance for civilian casualties, almost no other country on earth could imagine that it would allow a rocket to fly added and hit a house from another kindred territory that citizens rights, that it doesn't control without.

You're, being a major ground war. When you think of the Gipsy, I thought about this over the weekend. Think of this givens of the of the world opinion on Israel. The fact that Everyone knows the name and kind of the functioning of its missile defence system, its Israel thought of as a country with a kind of you know invisible umbrella over and at all times, because it because it is simply under under fire. I mean that serve. That's it that's a kind of it as spooky thing, I'm only let her go him as Gonna say that that is more than just annoying the way that this is being framed, and I think you're right now to point out the New York Times report. In particular, there is a wonderful piece written a couple years ago by a former APEC, responded, Nay Mattie Friedman in tablet, where she added just sort of writing about what how the framing of this actually does have, repercussions and cheese. You draws on the history of of conflict

were framed incorrectly or deliberately in a deliberately misleading way, like the spanish civil war, for example, or or other conflicts in the past. Why the truth and why facts on the ground are important and what happens when the general public, which isn't heavily invested in in regional conflict, gets misinformation year after year, month after month, and then when conflict arises, or they have to make a choice about whether to intervene or to aid and ally, they often make them a poor choice. Based on this misinformation, these misinformation campaigns have been going on for years, so it does really matter that that kind of stuff, the New York Times is feeding its readers, might make them look very clever to dinner party. But it's not it's. It's not right. Right, ok, so let's let some unpack this politically in american terms. How much does it matter that

there is an american administration that has Israel's back as compared to you know the Obama administration, obvious may I think, even in our there were there were occasions started the night, the twenty fourteen Gaza war, which started because Gaza fired two thousand missiles or something and TEL Aviv paralyzed, the Obama administrations anti Israel? Let's they serve, it froze its anti Israel views, I would say into place, because there was no question that Israel has spawned. There was no. There is no understanding of the world in which Israel could show restraint in oak. Who could show restraint in the form of captain low level take as this wasn't low level, and so even Obama had to recognise this. And then you know on carry started, doing Idiot shuttle Idiot diplomacy between Israel and Gaza like he was Henry Kissinger,

I'm trying to figure out how to when the answer was: here's the answer, dont fire rockets, you idiots you know somehow and then that serve ended in you know some form of ceasefire that if Israel mostly alone, except for a little flare up right, so now we have the trumpet everybody understands. The Trump administration tilt towards Israel has no interest in any kind of commonality with with the palestinian entities anywhere and and had so. I just don't know how much of where we are. How this is gonna be discussed has to do with TAT absolute, you know till towards Israel, so that it, the coverage, does that?

Does that make the New York Times more aggressively Hindi, Israel, absolutely local? It makes them more. Recital imagine Democrats have a reciprocal reaction. That is it is. I saw a bit of a digression, but I think it's illustrative of the phenomenon talking about yourself in in my reading of the New York Times, just to aggravate myself, I ended up on the opinion page. There's a piece, thereby Susan Rice this morning, wishes attacking the Trump administrations, Latin America policy policy towards Cuba, Qua policy towards Venezuela and she spends a conspicuous amount of time mocking attacking the voters of South Florida. Firstly, an explicitly of cuban descent expatriate community who have I supported the dismantling of their policy towards Latin America. Ok, there was a piece the other day I think political, and I thought my head was going explode about Venezuela, which was why

why are we supporting? You know this effort to change the government as well. How about the fact that Trump knows get this way? half a million Venezuelans have somehow tat can up residency in South Florida since twenty four three million have left, no doubt it says, half a million Venezuelans in Miami. Now I don't know what that means, because it's not like there's gonna that sounds like to monitor these are Venezuelans already have property and already bought condos or something in Miami doesn't matter, but it's like so trumpets clearly doing this Gub to us or to flatter and make up what you notice or play to get political support from the five four thousand Venezuelans who move to Florida since twenty four team. Now what's wrong with this analysis, if you move to Florida and twenty fourteen you're not gonna, be voting in twenty twenty

you dont somehow mystically get american citizenship and then go to the polls and vote in twenty twenty. That's insane! That's an insane kind of idiot. But now, if you think about it, if you were thinking about these things in terms of a political calculus will go back to Israel, a second but briefly about Cuba, and indeed the Obama administration gambled all but explicitly the younger generation of cuban Americans less hostile towards the regime in Havana and would reward and administration that opened up relations that they made an explicit electoral calculation to pit the older generation against the younger generation. In that sense in it, and it didn't really redound to their benefit or didn't work out in the way they thought it would so clearly, Susan rises. Better, I think, there's one interesting effect of trumps having Israel's back. That's not talk about much, which is ok, so these are. The Democrats have responded, aggressively perhaps more aggressively bigoted to towards Israel because of it, but am

to a certain extent. There is a type of right wing American who might not have been inclined to support Israel, but now his because it's part of Trump world really, I don't girl, because that was certainly true like thirty years ago, that half of the right, what didn't like Israel was a socialist country, and why were we and they kind of like the Arabs, and they did they? They like the arab countries and all of that, and mostly I think in the last twenty years, most of the ride has gone totally FILA Semitic, totally ILO Israel, but then wit. There's this. This populist rise, which I think could have and was I think and judged by the way, still doesn't in certain obvious pockets, is at

cement again and Anti Israel, but I think Trump support for Israel has is has made a good number of them. Not that way. I think it's plausible. I do think it is striking. Somebody did a list who there are twenty one or twenty two declared democratic candidates or president I beliefs alone among them PETE. But a judge

some statements thing. Israel has the right to self defence. Now imagine this under a different context that six on Iraq, which are fired Israel at any other time when there's a highly contested democratic nomination for the presidency and they're all too scared to to tweet or issue statements favouring Israel for fear of, I assume, Rashid, to leave and ill Hung, Omar and Alexandria, Cassio Cortez rage against them, or they know every time they say anything. There's gonna be some activist code pink person on the trail yelling at them now, but that's important right. I mean I very it's interesting that this, that the Israel as a litmus test has been, as has been something that's been debated and among Republicans in the past, but now it's a litmus test for Democrats, and I think you are absolutely right that they are the fact that booted edges when one who said anything at all is is appalling. I mean you know

Nicky, Halley tweeted right away. You know we need to stand with Israel, a couple of other Martha Mcnally, few others have ever put out twitter or statements supporting Israel, but the fact that those democratic norms these are not able to do. That means they have to sit there and calculate the risk if they do, and that is that's that's kind. That's knew that. I write that about its new and, let me just read the last rites of Edra of the daily collar came up with the list. Twenty twenty democratic presidential candidates would have said nothing about the palestinian terror attacks on Israel, Yang Ryan, Delaney Swell well, worn Orourke, molten Sanders hidden Loop, Jill brand Ben

message club, which our Harris Gabert easily Williamson Castro, Booker and Biden, and space and american Ally six hundred rockets fired by an organism by two organizations that I believe are universally viewed as terrorist their universally. It's not like your saying. Oh Israel's, fighting suffering Palestinians in the streets of Jericho, like this is Hamas and Islamic Jihad. One. These are vassal states of IRAN, vassal pseudo organizations of IRAN, as he laughs at such a strange phenomenon, because this is another to anything GEO Political

Nothing to do with american interests in the region or Arbour particular alliance structure in the region, or even some sort of sympathy with the governing structure of the palestinian entities or the arab states that support them. I mean it's just the entirely linked to this is what the activists and left of work themselves up into it. Couldn't I thy struggle to see how it could manifest in some sort of a policy if a demo Braddock administration. With these sentiments got into office. How would you how govern that way? You dont have a partner in the Justinian territory. I don't care about the partner mobile. That's why I think it's my memory care about a partner you, but you say it's ephemeral, so the added its all about attitude. It's all this question of that Israel and therefore its attitude dilemma. The fight between Israel and the Palestinians is a rebuke. To a worldly understanding in which

somehow you know you can all you have to do- is find the root cause of something and and throw money added annual saw leather brought it in browser terms that the Palestinians situation is depreciating, is getting worse and their support, among liberals, isn't, is direct inversely proportional, but right, fair enough right over it, but that that is a manifest that not enough avenue sort of interest, but it's even weirder the knack, as the situation is not mean it's getting worse in only in the sense that it's just static and school, erotic and kind of grading from twenty five years ago, when there was real hope that there might be some kind of a long term resolution to this process about twenty five years later. There is no peace process between Israel and the Palestinians, although supposedly the Trump administration is at some point. The next couple months, gonna room, release some major peace plan, but there is no peace process. The palace

the Palestinians, the rule on the West Bank, by fought off we in the West Bank. His is you know into its sub affords year, fifteen or sixteen year of a four year term. Hamas, you know also doesn't allow elections that they were elected in two thousand seven. So we have these governments rule the world over by you, know, aging people with blood diseases and no change and an entire political culture that, based on the idea that all they are as victims and that they need to you now basically suck money out of people to give them money. And so it's not even that, it's worse, it's just kind of a dead in the water and that because of I don't know what? Because of academic because of the because of the academy is complete turn nickel science turned toward

these feelings about the palaces because of Europe. I don't know what it is here that we have a situation in which he has done right parties. Emotions have turned against Israel and towards you know, do so David and Goliath. So now you know the Palestinians are David in Israel's Goliath. But it doesn't matter because, even if they were, if they were to come into power, there would still be no peace process. It's a little hard to imagine administration. That would be effectively more anti Israel. Maybe it's not shouldn't be hard to warrant. Israel did Obama, but I think you can Sanders is exe. Listen Wesley Anti Israel and pro You know, Obama at least paid lip service to the idea that he was doing. Tough loves was tough love, he loved Israel, but it was tough love. You know you wanted daylight between America. The american government and the israeli government is like the israeli government will now. We basically would have

one of the more left wing candidates or any of them. Somebody who can it would be functionally somehow anti. It's just difficult to imagine what that I mean what that policy with like in practice, because you would be functionally choosing described. I reject amendment choosing strategic deficit or advantage in the region and night ends. Don't believe that way. Ok, I can describe it to very plainly. It is the removal of the threat of veto in the. U N the General Assembly in the? U S manner the wet wants to pass a resolution imposing sanctions on Israel. The United States will abstain, Wilma veto it that's it that could be an enormous, have an enormous GEO political effect from Israel. You we weaken the, U N doesn't matter, but it only doesn't matter because our veto, because we and when

we're Obama played this- what's he gave at the very end of his administration, where he opened the door to this. He opened the door by abstaining on a ridiculous anti Israel resolution. So if you think that Democrats do you, if you think that in ecologically minded Democrats are gonna, come into oh come into the White House and twenty twenty one and you know look at things in place in form of rail politic power politics, I think that's a fundamental misunderstanding of who they are. But if that is the case,. Some of us are going to have to drown our sorrows in which luxurious foods to keep our family, and now it's one way to talk to you about door dash a because you know we, some less lazy people We do so. We just need food delivered to our door. Let's face it. And door dash is amazing, because there are thirty three hundred through more than three thousand three honey.

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So I just want to say I was alive in New York City. We have the luxury of a lot of delivery service, but mostly a lot of people and a lot of places don't have very good delivery door. Dash has changed this. It's like the goober of food door, dash prom code commentary, five dollars off your first order. Go for it! It's exciting! Ok, so I want to shift gears and mention a pole. That's out this morning from NBC News that says that the Lucy S M gap as measured this week, the enthusiasm gap between Democrats and Republicans has vanished. For the last two years there has been a massive enthusiasm gap in which Democrats express themselves as being far more enthusiastic about voting Republicans and has had this effect of the main effect was officially twenty eight election in which it was not just that Craig had enormous turn. I wish they did, but that Republicans in very

places were depressed and stayed home according to a and b C. This gap is now. It has now vanished. Seventy five percent of Republicans, like seventy five percent of Democrats, professed themselves, streamline eager to go to the polls and twenty twenty enthusiastic about going. Don't wait, wait a vote for Trump and Republicans. The question is: how much of this may pose? Listen grisamber! Go you first. How much of this is that they ve decided. They love trumpet everything's great everything is fantastic and economies graven they love Trump and how much of it? Is them programs out, says Trump didn't do it says trumped didn't collude with Russia Democrats have now. You know said that true Mahler wants to impeach bars lying everybody's lying, here's a bucket

chicken I'm gonna eat under the house floor to show that bar is a chicken and they're like I can't we can, but these people get any wish. These we'll have gotta be stopped like how much of it is you know, and the socialism stuff. You know all of the corral, the stuff that we put under the rubric on the cover of commentaries may issue under the rubric of the Democrats are going crazy. How much of that is spurring republican enthusiasm and how much of it is actual trump enthusiasm. I think it would. I think the concern about democratic overreach is probably a more powerful force, then pro trump feeling especially if you look at what happened during the mid terms, what's interesting in that and b C Paul was the independents right, so both

Publicans and Democrats are going to have to court. These independent voters in the next election and penance don't really like Trump, but they also don't like impeachment? So that's an interesting needle that will have to be threatened by both parties if they're going to win and one so now I would say this is more about democratic overreach in reaction to it and a little bit of scandal fatigue than it is about. Suddenly everybody waking up one morning in saying: oh, my god, actually love drop, there's about. Doesn't you can't talk about the pool of democratic and republican voters in this country like there's there too buckets that are entirely even though not there are more them. Rats in this country registered self identified, Democrats and the Republicans. If The republic and now you're pretty much gonna vote for Trump. The Mulder report doesn't seem to have had any impact on the president standing whatsoever when it came out in real good politics, job approval rating. He added disapproval rating at around eight point. Six today, either

more disapprove then approve plus eight point. Six today is plus eight point: nine, according to our sleepy spouse, a little bit, but it's pretty much stable. You know, I don't see a whole lot of Olaf movements in that middle that you're talking about which it's probably a lot of people who didn't used to identify as republican and dont anymore, at least four pollsters, but nevertheless would still vote for Republicans. If you gave them the opportunity to do so, will remember Jill Stein. I've been in the race in twenty. Sixteen right lunatic, crazy, Joseph had not been in the race. The anthem vote for candidates of the left, her added to Hilary swap would have made her win easily. She would have won in the three states, assuming that those voters would have turned out anyway, so just that there are more democratic voters there, more liberal voters than conservative voters, it's very hard for conservatives, to believe this to be the case

because of the fact that we live in these some bubbles right so but it's very its end, it does not appear based on the polling. That Trump has minted new conservatives. What he has done without question is solidified, you know the conventional Republicans with the more incremental republicans, they the chose him. They, though, Republicans have decided that day, they like him or or that they like his policies and they don't care about his personal behaviour or they even enjoy the personal be whatever, but that so that he can now. I think, if, as you will forward, assume that he will get every vote that he got into sixteen, that's not nothing! It's not enough to win, but you know there was a time last year when it was entirely possible that, like Obama in

but to twenty twelve. His turn out would actually go down. Oh bomber got four million fewer votes and twenty twelve than he got in two thousand and eight. The idea that a presidential apparent president can't rode his own support in office and maybe a bomber. Has At seventy million votes had obviously have way more awful hidden a lot. You know he could lose votes without really endangering himself and Trump can't, but still you know, that's not nothing at all. I'm saying you know it's gonna, be you ought to be a huge drag on democratic enthusiasm who plays out is the fact that the crowds who support one of the gazillion candidates. The vehemence with which they approach the other candidates. There, people in candidate axes camp so hate candidate, why? This is all among Democrats now that when, when their candidate is not

this isn't the nominee. There they are sort of in open hostility toward towards other candidates. On the left, I mean. The pirnie browser at war with, though, with the with the with the binding frozen by enforcing the Bernie Rosalie, they blaming the very broad blame for Hilary and and and and- and I think there is so much in fighting among the democratic, that I think that is going to ultimately be ultimately be a dread for business like the narcissism, small differences, though line in what go ahead, but I dont think it isn't. I think it was when it when it was Bernie and Hilary, and I think absolutely right there was that there is a lot of bitterness still among the people who supported Bernie bitterness not just about Hilary loss and trumps win, but about how the process unfolded, and they are determined this time to make sure the process is not corrupted by you, know, insider deals or want not, and I think that now

republican republican convention almost fell apart, but how people of our people were scream MIKE Lee was screaming on the floor. To have a rolling lie recount I'll. Do it I'll never get it can really didn't really elbows fall. It adds that being a rearguard action. I think what s interesting is that the we're safe, does the animosity from the primary didn't translate into the general. Well, that's. Why Biden is running at this morality campaign? That's why I think he's he's trying to set himself apart from all the others who were bickering by saying this is a moral choice. You have to make an twenty twenty. It's not really about policy, it's not about Medicare for all or free college. It's about a moral vision and you try the morality of it on we're. Ok, so basically Democrats are Biden, this hedging as bats and the Democrats or smart or hedging their bets on the following, which is that they can people enough people to divorce perform

months from personality right or performance from character that that, assuming in this, as an aside, I know him. No, but assuming that you know there is some in our major international event that Trump Miss handles or that the economy takes a sharp turn. For the worse that he's gonna go into twenty twenty in a fairly strong position. In terms of you now he can claim is a reason to be real acts. It right that he that he than he Do we helped supercharged the economy and that and that, where, the world is more ordered in our direction than it was before right and then the idea is gonna be so he can say if he can ignore what I say just follow I do and vote for me. You now takes a tough man to make a tender chicken. That's. Why am I do what I do and like you can not like it, but you can argue with the results and the demo.

That's gonna say he is uniquely the the eight years of tromp are going to represent decline in the nations character. That will be very hard to restore asked words, and so What you want like what you want, that that the more the more profound but more but but but less some. But more evanescent things that Trump is doing to the country have to be stopped. I dont know that that's ever worked as a message. I mean it's very rare that you now people have deployed. This is a message. Bob dull tried it a little bit against Bill Clinton. Remember: wake up America he's you now you sell it to the Chinese and he's a bad guy and why water

and nobody, William Dull, got forty percent of the vote so that that wasn't that that successful, but I think absent, a absolute survived, thus a serious thing for them to run against. If they do, what Democrats have done in times of republican recovery or republican financial is is say why don't believe the evidence of your own eyes? Things aren't good. That was my. That was the democratic message and ninety four, the things are not good. There really not good. The farm. Farms are bad and you know pending we're. Gonna have a pension crisis and we get this got that we got the other thing and they won one state water Monday. One one now Trump is obviously not gonna for the United States Emily, yet we be lucky to win twenty eight states, given all the numbers, but that's the interesting set up here and I think them

central thing about the independent number is Democrats, just as Trump has no idea how to speak to people who don't I came to get them on his side. Similarly, Democrats have no idea how to speak to people who are not simply who don't already hate him. They are living in the Gue Universe and what you just talk amongst yourselves of a how much you hate Trump eight hours. I really don't think that a placid abiden, I think, no replied Merla reason. That's frustrating Democrats is because I mean they're having this sort of che internal conversation about whether its even moral to appeal to people who voted for Trump, that Joe Biden into a lesser extent Bernie Sanders are under of that sort of what I why dont think is really a genuine and honest, but nevertheless purple the effective attack on them as being suspect, not woke enough for appeal to these white working class voters and also means the democratic path,

its failure to support the female candidates among them, which is evidence of some point, a full scan of latent this biased against women in politics. These attacks are being levelled in the fringes on the democratic parties margins right now, they're gonna get a lot more louder and more vocal as the debates heat up and has Joe Biden support. If it isn't, ephemeral will remain solid, they're going to throw everything they can out of it and that's the most effective one. The other really interesting pulling the came out over the weekend was a pole of South Carolina. It appears that the entire political strategy of Senator calmly Harris who was a very savvy candy as if you watched her interrogation, a bill bar like she's, a formidable person and she may like just be sensational in the debates based on how quick she is on her feet and all that her entire strategy

is. She has to win South Carolina, the third state, Riker, very african american electorate and all this, and you know that they'd she d, the whole thing just generally speaking, that's a longshot way to go because they you never win. Unless you when I will. I am sure that everyone is ever one without winning one or the other. But ok, so let's say she hasn't strategy. She's, four percent in the polls in South Carol, an abiding is running away without went away, one per, but I'm ok, but I'm just saying so she's a four percent. This Poland Biden is running away with it now its maize, oh you so one good debater performance can turn things around. You know if you know with Oprah, does for her what Oprah did for Obama and South Carolina in two thousand and seven could make a big difference like as a bigs help launcher in the fall. Something like that. But you know

this idea. Somehow the Biden isn't doing pretty sensationally well is is starting to take on water, like he's leading everywhere that it's like well he's only leading by a point in the Iowa and New Hampshire, but he's leading in Iowa and New Hampshire and nationally now he's not leading twenty points. The way isn't actually but he's third in New Hampshire Wit, which is where you might expect him to be. Also he's doing. This kind of low cost appealed to the progressive base by really highlighting Snaplock like Charlottesville, in attacking the common law culture as a white man's culture. You know trying to try to be as woke as possible without offering any policy specifically that the progressive left likes not no, no matter for all. No universal jobs guarantee no free healthcare, no use these talkin about unions and other great. But when I go to roll back any of the Supreme Court, decisions were not going to look for some kind of a constitutional remedy to the Supreme Court's ruling that you didn't have to contribute

due to unions are not a member of all this like really progressive, wishlist stuff, he's balking on and winning, but you gotTa Harold you some kind of a psychological crisis if you're on the left, but he's gonna have to address it at some point, as is Buddha judge I mean you know, that's the thing like they're, all sort of you know: but it has no compunction about endorsing the sort of stuff, but I really think Joe Biden sees come out against, that's like a minimum income and a jobs guarantee rainwater. No, no, and I think that he can press it by not addressing it. That is to say he can say there are a lot of great ideas about how to make America fair. I'm gonna listen to all of them, and I you know there's that that's her. The question is: what's the one? That's gonna work and work the most bed, the best for that lunch. Pale guy in Akron who blah blah blah. Whenever I mean you the notion that I'm just saying, I think we thought

that he was a week. I think everybody in a political world thought that he was a weaker candidate and he is- and this I think retroactively, justifies the sense that people had an twenty. Sixteen, that now Obama and various other people were being stupid, as Hilary was she was was like leaking water in in the all of twenty fifteen, to think that Biden didn't have a particular appeal that that might have worked. He may a blow it up, he's, got a terrible, terribly loose tongue and he's a silly person. I think. Fundamentally, so that can happen, but again, assuming that he doesn't do that. Assuming that he again the same way, one can assume at say, though they call me doesn't tanks or the trump then has to deal with the consequences of his own foolishness or whatever, but if by doesn't make a lot of mistakes we,

why does he what craters him? I mean what what? What? What? What? What takes him down here? Add three weeks of this, every other candidate came off the launch pad and with the exception of Buddha Judge who had nor to go. But up and just like wilt that you know Warren wilted a work! well did Harris is wilted em they're all in a now there's. This thing is that no is written about this kind of media love, sudden media love for war and substantive qualities. That is showing no evidence of being supported anybody, but they, but you know, he's the only one who is maintained except for Bernie right, I mean, but he's the only one who is maintained. His altitude asked you know three weeks of fine, that without the lab Lucy Lopez was at her name of the Roman, who said that he put his hands on her. Even though wasn't sexual is an appropriate. I mean

money too early to say that you know he's doing great, but I he having the progressive left here if that, if that's my voice, how that had, I my mother adamant about, but that's my plan b, because I think that that's when I think the the hordes of the Bernie supporters, many of whom I think of more animosity towards Joe Biden event or Donald Trump vote for certainly in the primary stage. Third, don't be, as you said, the narcissism, small differences, but there's death. I mean the triumvirate in Congress, and you know the hard core, Bernie supporters will look at a guy who is, it has been as as on me too moment be, as you can get who's, not embracing any these progressive popular ideas, who's, who do nevertheless has the support of a deal too much of that really a critical mass within the Democratic Party that they would choose to

front thrown irrelevance. Absolutely not, though, out let me go one final point now directed at Christine, so here's the irony so the Bernie people pushed this change in the democratic parties nominating rural structure right. That said that the party regulars would not have a vote on the first ballot, meaning there were these super delegates who got thirty percent of the vote and that basically, this this to prevent the establishment from derailing non establishment. Canada see you now from the Gatt go because now, but here's the thing so Biden and Bernie contest right. There, like the two there of the one and two in their contesting and no gets enough delegates to win on the first ballot right so but Biden, the head, which makes sense.

His Biden is more likely to win the big states them Bernie or do better in the big set whatever. This is now going to be even worse for the for the birdie brows, if my scenario works out, because that means that there will be no winter on the first ballot and Biden will win by dint of the fact that the super delegates are male at the vote on the second ballot. Ok, so it will be even more that the party comes in. You know at a moment of controversy and backs the less progressive person over the more progressive person, and then what did they do? Cause it's fair and square. They changed the rules now, but the exactly now, that's the wonderful it'll be a wonderful, rich irony and- and really this is this- is this? Is God's ammo through our right? That's its Bernie Verses Biden. That's that's all that matters right now, because no one else has broken through and that neither of those two he's gonna fall and there has been

a reckoning for the progressive left within the Democratic party they'd and their numbers are growing. I mean that these are the younger voters. They do see Biden as no was saying Biden is not them. He represents everything that they think a party should be being away from, and yet you know the average voters. Among the Democrat, so I mean it might just take one more presidential election cycle or they finally have full control of the Democratic Party. But this is the battle that this will be. The motto grown, your twenty twenty boots. Isn't there young? Is it the kids in burning, for I can't wait to see what a little within one comes out with net Teresa recapture the new cycle nexus per like a race all debt or you know, Jen.

Universal mortgage relief assistance now universe, it's gonna be universal, make overs for everyone, because you know to make us all more. I mean Meredith or warlike up. There will be a white paper on ashore, okay, so press swooning, that's what we're gonna end with ninety seconds, I'm game with thrones, because you know it is now. I think twenty million twenty two million people watched the big. Let me also say that we have the post battle episode and I'm trying not to cavil, because I really enjoyed it. I join just to enjoy the battle episode, but I mean everybody is stupid. That's basically now the once that, once they blew actually had to resolve the plot, the only way they can do is to make everybody stupid. So, oh boy, sickly, John Snow, tells his family a big secret that there that he is not actually his actually from the the evil target Gary and family, and he said you can't tell anybody, and then they tell everybody so that was still

of John Snow. Ah, there was no incentive for his character to make that choice. Right aside, the fact that they ve been telegraphing the shakespearian clash between John and Danny furred too. It seems that now and that's the only way it happens so, like you said, people stop thinking strategically in order to advance the plot, and then someone satisfying about various had the best line right when he said. If aid we'll know than its no longer a secret, its information that level a Europe that was a virus, a virus should end up as the the iron three great, because he's the only person of with any intelligence and and Anna moral frame. Once more, I would say, even though I think that's on earth could somehow he somehow got it in the later seasons because they decided they didn't want him to be. To be the sort of weird villain Munich villain that they that they that they thought. How? I'm just saying that I think it's. I still think it's a great show, but

the thing that you liked about the show which, as you never really know, what's going to happen, I think now its clear that no one's gonna die. That's my That's my new drivers, but no one's gonna die because, just as because they're gonna be spin offs, so they're gonna, it's like oh, no they're, killing off Danny's, you know handmaidens. This terrible leads shook her head, got cut off because can build a spin off around Miss Andre, the the dose ok or whenever she is, she a Doth, Rocky, anyway. Ok, but you can't you can't build discovered her so that you can kill her, but you can't kill, Terry and land that you can kill any Lancaster, Euclid, chill Emmy stark you can't kill anybody unless there are minor character, so I think basically, we ve been waiting, ran to see who is gonna die and no one's gonna die. Yet I would be really depressing

you're saying earlier in the in the office that it's like the Marvel Series swim we're the only and I've been doesn't. My complaint to my wife, who loves these movies. Is that the only stakes in those movies are the actress contracts and as long as you know, where their position is within their their contractual relationship, how many films they have to shoot? Those are the only stakes associate with those movies. Nothing happening. Affirming a genius plot twist of the of the new ventures movie is Only two people die like it was a whole question of. If some people can come back to life than other people are gonna have to die, and then it turns out that nobody, that was the figure waiting for years like who's going to die. I got to go to the movie to see who's no spoilers, I don't know who's going to die and then it was like nobody's dilute nobody's gonna die, it's actually what you would have expected accepted. You tricked you into thinking. Well, you know it's really. The end of the series and people's contracts are up and all this, so I just think.

Ok, so we got it so we gotta do this one last thing: aid can participate as stop stopped watching. So so we have two more episodes and then it's over so Noah ends up on the throne. Oh god, I don't know. Ok, I mean, I honestly don't care. Ok, he doesn't care and he doesn't know. Ok, the whole. The journey is what's really value gathered during a parent or as all about the characters. That's what they said I lost with loss, didn't have an ending was well. We was really the characters shore Kay Christine who ends up on the throne. I don't know, but I'm kind of reading for Santa now, because she's just become such a stone, cold, yedo. Now, lady, I'm kind of on her side. Now I think it has to be Santa pulsing- is now suffered, and now it's gonna be boring that it Santa, but it's it's going to be Santa an area so

Arias gonna emerge from point a killed somebody who can't be killed just like she d, like the like, like surcease zombie, you know bodyguard. My demand is that this cliched shakespearian clash between Danny and snow doesn't happen. If that happens, so hack that I will be for were disappointed with legal retroactively ruin. Eight years of my life really wow, that's very high! That's very hard! Yes, absolutely so so are basically being told that the debt that Danny is crazy. Their Johnson was the only one who's really get that she's crazy, even though he loves her plus Shih Tzus, and so that's a good one and so he's going to have to dispatch her than the heels dispatch her and then the dragon will dispatch him, and then you know Santa will end up on the throne. If any of that happens, I'm just going to be so sad

questions boring. So the kick, but no no ending is not going to be boring name any one who could end up on the throne. You wouldn't be bored by some. Certainly right, Sir Percy wins it'll be equally of in eight years of total and complete Neil isn't right. That's ok! That would be awesome. Like I dislike the Kentucky Derby. Finnish is like yet another example of how everything nothing works, something more right like I'll. Remember the law lamb moonlight having their so We have this whole list of the maybe remember we have a list of things that somehow stopped working right. I get culturally, I camera, but what it was was a very bad ending of supervisory whenever any there, some some various things that happen that were ludicrous, and this Stuckey Derby thing like it was ridiculous trumped to say that it was political correctness that have changed the body.

I knew what he was getting out. It's like this that, if not how far it is morally- and this has not happened in the old days, though it's like any of em security in the old days, horses got into each other's way and we like- and we were chopper then, but people who know something about horse racing say this happens track all the time that horses are armed disqualified for getting in the way of other horses. So it just as never happened at the door, because it's bad bad running it's bad horse running does help you go off

if your lame, but I didn't see that the President of the United States said that their horse races. Yes, yes, yes, yes, it would be. They shouldn't have changed the winner, and this was an act of political correctness that was up he's got a very broad definition, the political direction. Yes, it is true, and so I wish it with a whip with that we will bring MR close word nor Rossman. Meanwhile, the hand Christine Resin John passwords give ample burning.