« Commentary Magazine Podcast

Finding the Bottom

2020-04-28 | 🔗
In New York City, the nation’s premiere Coronavirus hotspot, there is a visible light at the end of the tunnel. When does the national debate turn away from onerous lockdowns and toward individual case-based mitigation? Also, Joe Biden's problems mount as assault allegations against him gain credence.
This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
Welcome to the Commentary magazine daily Progress today is Tuesday April twenty, eight twenty twenty, I'm John POD words the editor of commentary with me, as always senior editor, a green waldheim hygiene, associate ever nor Rossman. I know a guy. And an Senorita Christine rose and high Christine John, a green walled we seem at least here in the the worst hit area to be,
seeing serious light at the end of the tunnel. Yes, certainly, but not- I think not just here but but but here for sure, as The governor, Andrew Como updates data. Every day. There are, as of yesterday, Monday, debts have been significantly, just now. I guess I mean from from a high I have almost like eight hundred, every aid to another well below four hundred range seem to be. You know, sort of staying there. Innovations down hospitalizations down all that good stuff, but also, I would say nationally things, look a whole lot better. In my estimation, cases have been down the past four days in Neuro, Newt new cases
death? Daily debts are lower than they ve been on, and I think about a month. To be honest with you, it seems about that and But I've been watching. Is this this number of serious slash, critical cases and I've been watching that over weeks, go from like ten thousand steadily up- never never drop in from ten thousand and eleven pheasant, one thousand two hundred and thirty up to fifteen, and it took back down it's it's now, just below fourteen thousand serious in criminal, incredible cases so, These are all the good signs, of course, they're they're all they all contained tons and tons of unspeakable tragedy because they involve the deaths of Many people but and the eldest of so many people, but nevertheless there it is mean well, there is, I mean we're not it when I'm acting like it, though I mean news and yet the news and yet behaving as though the cast catastrophe is upon us and is not available
no, sir, People are in fact, as acting like, as I suspect that I think it's is now kind of firm them, even though that polls, show that support for a room for continuing locked downstairs strong. There is some data, that a firm the track cell phones has has come up with recently. Have you seen this and in the past week, America These are leaving their there. More frequently going farther away and congregate hitting with others, are coming closer to others, and they had So people can say that they want security what's going on security, but they are true. Literally voting with their feet, as I totally believe it and it's happening as we predicted at work from the bottom up. But what we are seeing now from Andrew Cuomo is The decision I made yesterday to cancel the New York State primary
June, and the end of June is inexplicable and absolutely insane if you think that this is still with us at the end of June. Then we have a whole host of other problems to deal with, but there is the logic and it is utterly unsupported there. Was no spike associated with the constant election. There were Paul workers that guy is about thirty six pull workers that became infected as a result of their experience, but despite that, we were told that was going to happen because of this reckless and irresponsible decision to hold this election did not materialise and yet were cancer. Elections in the middle of summer. Out of the fear that this thing will will be with us forever, it's just proactive. I do. We really think that's why. Well, if it's not that it's not, then it then it's much more nefarious, there's nothing! You can have a better, even conspiracy theory. I wanna hear it this product where's the theory that the devil.
Credit primary in New York in June is pretty much almost will simply about the presidential ray because there is another primary in September the New York Primaries in September, not June for statewide offices, so with Biden in place there no particular reason to have a primary, and if you want a you know, if you want a really ludicrous conspiracy theory what you would have, as you know, with the bad news The Biden campaign over the last week that Cuomo is creating an insurance policy for by in case the news gets worse. First in relation to this sexual assault allegation that there's no there's no way for Bernie Sanders to somehow rise from the dead end.
Magically win the state of New York. At the end, of June and therefore you know sort of creating. Idea that there is a real chance that he could. Create a groundswell to take the nomination from vibe. Now I say that's a ludicrous theory, and I mean it to be. I mean it to say that to a reverse, Terry, but don't say I'm not gonna, show up in chop a trap house land if it Hasn'T- and I will say to add to what Della observed about their Wisconsin election. I think that if, as in a rational adults were able to stand in lines with six feet of distance between us to get into the grocery store and to do all the things that all of us are currently doing, it shouldn't be a problem to do the same thing for elections and, of course, the pull workers have to be
After this the same challenges with the people who work in grocery stores, they get more consistent exposure and so are at higher risk, so that would have to be taken care of, but they're really doesn't seem to be a pandemic related reason not to you know, have a kind of trial run and in the summer, for what we know to becoming in the fall which is which is the president of major election. So I wonder if this is also a way to to see what the reaction will be among voters in New York. If the election strategy and in the follows, gonna be dramatically, different can get at possibly be prepared right now to do in all male and election shut off the bed, beetle after we spoke yesterday about our who predicted that the that Cuomo and others would start declaring victory and saying, let's move on, why watched his his briefing and he was really quite far from doing that, and because he also announced that that he'd be,
extending locked downs and in parts of the parts they need, namely New York when these are up right. Well, I did not think it was gonna happen now. I don't think they declaring victory. I think we are if, if the trend lines that you talked about it at the top of the public, to continue a week from now there is going to be a shift in the story of the shift. The story is going to be there But a dramatic reduction in the you know in them in that terrible cost of the disease And yet there are two perspectives you could go to from that point, one is that its working? So don't you know, don't change, don't change your approach it seems to be working and the other is it's worked, and that's a big
after him- I don't know when that happens precisely part of the way that the lock down extreme social, distancing, stuff works as a rhetorical matter is to conduct We warned that it's not work it. Oh look someone's on a beach, oh look People are standing far enough, a part in the park in that thing. Thus triggering a kind of counter response, which is well. We obviously can't loosen, because these people can be trusted to behave properly and so I dont know where that where that goes exactly, then of course we have the second largest state, my country, Texas, which is pretty much about her.
Give up on a lot of its evidence doing these things. People can you can only have twenty five percent capacity of movie theaters and stuff like that which will make it all but impossible. For me, he uttered a run in any case like if you have them, if you could only sell order of your seats. How you're gonna make any money running it and not lose money running it is. It is an open question, but we are, there is gonna, be more. There will be more evidence or data on what happens when you When you end, you know The the shutdown of the economy and they re States like Texas and and other states that have less population density. Have they started their lockdown much later than a lot of us here on the EAST coast or in northern California, and their ending a much sooner, and there really is a completely different experience of this panel.
Make. If you talk to someone who is not on the coast and and is an area where you know your nearest neighbor is a couple miles off their, there must be a strange disconnect for them when they watch the news and they see the stories they hear about locked out of date, unit of the kind of that the pitch the fever pitch of concern and safety regulations coming out for everybody doesn't really resonate with their own experience, and that's it. That's I dont know statistically like what percentage of the population is having that experience, but it's a fair number of people also it will affect going into the fallen going into the election, how our political leader continue to talk about is whether or not we're loosening restrictions that point or have stayed in some places. On locked up what we mean when we need to see, I would say to see that there is a shift in the conversation is something like The governor of Wisconsin Governor Avars, saying that his law
down order through may twenty six can be less. You know that he can do it. I'm may fifteenth or something like that, that that decision, that had been made to do these things. You know on a timeline into the future that, as as as evidence changes, things change and therefore yadda Now I don't know that's gonna happen, but if some, if stuff like that happens, it changes the dynamic em they're. There is a hard thing to do. Save this way. But there is a conspiracy of interests. We haven't even really discussed that that some reason to push for this, and I am not just talking about small businesses this is I mean, like nonprofits people of
of high status in determining how worse was to deal with this of a society. I'm talking about the medical profession which is already you're already hearing from some people, that you know, people who need chemo aren't getting came like how long is that supposed to go on that that other doctors are gonna say we have? We have spending medical care in this country to take to deal with a virus that, not hitting where we are- and this is not. This is bad medicine. This is bad. Other people are dive reasons there than the virus because of how we have structured emergency medical care. At this moment and again, this is so that's not even a conspiracy, the interest that is actually a serious argument that has now been made even in manner
even in New York City than your post has an obvious today by an emergency room, Doktor Doktor Murphy in in the Bronx at my Molly's or my camera, which hospital who says we need to open up, because You know there was a moment on on April, ninth when the TOT, when the fever broke, when the worst of it was over happen in the middle of the day on April minds and we need to liberate our emergency room to do other stuff here in this hospital and, of course, the other news that we hear is that the hospitals across the country are falling. It's a terrible economic straits because they're not they're, not doing the work that they all. Merrily do that fills their coffers. Mayo clinics are laid off a bunch of doktor right there. There sit down scaling, witches, soda, shocking rabbit, that's the big ones of the vulnerable one
the rural hospitals. Many rural hospitals and opera operate on a shoestring and need they say elective, procedures, but really elective colonoscopy as elective. But that's a sort of thing might I'll, keep some well also pediatrics. There is no pediatrics being done in this country. There's no vaccinations being done in this country. That's gonna, scary! So that's what I'm saying. I think that you have that than you'll have you know the the fear and terror at the at the higher education level of what of what an ability to plan for the upcoming year, portend you have a non it's everywhere, so I'm not where it's not. You know rapacious capitalists to just wanna get their businesses going, because there's they either. We want to make money. They They still have. They will still have more difficulty, maybe with the exception of this horrifying Thyssen's food, full page.
The New York Times suggesting that the idea that the food chain as some or the not the future what's the supply chain for american food is starting to crack. That's a terrible conundrum. So the reason why that that plant and the plan and South Dakota that sparked everything now we're talking about a shortage of pork and bacon. That sounds absolutely. Refine the reason why that happened is because people got infected, but and I on a mass scale, so had to shut it down because of the infection rates, but you can't shoot the plant down because its essential, but you can't social, stands because the production line will fail, but if you were to mandate that the shuts down, then you have the supply chain problem anyway. There's there's no resolution to that problem. I mean right, so the what you have is you had people responding to the facts as they were a month ago
And now you have the facts as they are now which involve the fact that we do not have a national break out of the virus. There is not a nation wide virus crisis right, there isn't hotspot crisis and, what's more, I don't think we ve seen, knew how spots like where, where, where is the emergence, whereas the Emergent New York elsewhere, there hasn't been one, there was some concern about Atlanta, better, Now, if the materialised that was about a week ago, the imo easy and it never happened. Oil and see out. You know now. This gives you know rise to. There is an argument that there is. There is a sort of fixed cycle to the virus, and I and perhaps other viruses of liking, o six to eight weeks or something where it will, It is, it rises. The spread rises, rises, rises and falls regardless of where it gets to win that that in in totalitarian it it it rises,
falls, we're gonna, know and others are there. It s just disappear, but in the severity of this particular virus ended spread is, is heavily dependent on population density obviously mean that the reason that other reason, those meet packing plants were seeing high rates of infection. Is this a lot of people crammed into small, not perfectly well ventilated, space right and mean that routes and New York everyone? We ve talked about this. Everyone lives and much more densely populated area. So if that's cracked, then than you know, that's actually, good news right that that right and we have to learn to live with it. It'll be back, won't be back with an awful. We buy I'm just saying that either there is also this kind of idea, weird idea that comes out of panic. Not the panic is a proper response to a pandemic, but then
you know, we need to stay lock down in preparation for the fall, witches and Knots Harvard Harvard saying it's preparing for the possibility that it might be online only in the fall Who, in their right mind, would say her child to seventy thousand dollar instead the year institution to sit at home. Well because, because Harvard is like the that the the scarecrow Brian, the wizard of OZ. You don't need to go to Harvard. You just need the piece of paper that says when it I got it. I mean that's if you're a real over achiever, maybe that's attractive, but if you're not attractive an alliance of college. There are many more very good institutions that were are smaller,
and will be able to manage this epidemic and will probably be fire sail to wish in rates that I would take advantage of. You know, as somebody who sends my kids to private school. This is this represents a fascinating. Conundrum for the fall, which is okay, so we ve kind of all internalize the fact that we are paying for a third of this year Education to beyond zoom on line, and it's not the school scalded nobody's fault. The bill is already paid, you know we're even all their non school lunches that have not been served and will be served but
you know it's an uncommonly affluent population that goes to the schools of my kids go to, but if we don't have a firm sense that there is going to be actual school in the fall, I mean very wealthy. Bull can sort of like turn this into a kind of donation to continue to let the schools survive, but a lot of us are not going to be in that position and you know there has been a really strong serious effort by the schools to continue educating my kids, em nobody is very diligent and resourceful and its impressive what they ve tried to do, but it's not a real edge
asian, and it's not a real it's something: it's not what were paying for em. You know yet can it be at its gonna? Be harsh in this. As you know, in the place where people can most afford. To shoulder that burden and And you know, and also at schools that are you know that have something of that harboured quality that you know they're they're, prestigious enough that just saying you went to them is is, is goods so a hum the programme when it would, but when did you get it when it is at a Harvard? You know I love your freshman year. Twenty twenty one here, one of those, so you didn't really go to hire greater Harvard extensions Yeah, that's called that's! Ok, I mean
Was that hilarious, big it out back in the eighties every now and then some scented senatorial Kevin? something like that. It would be the you know they would have said that they went too you know. Its remember, the University of Chicago and then it turns out that they took extension courses of data social progress- something like that and you know em and we're serves James by the efforts of inflate their their educational resume, but your say actually being a Harvard, students will be seen as the inflation of education rather worse. Yet you just look at them, patronising, lay and say: oh you, poor sweet thing, someone child right anyway, Did you say your jeopardy? Isn't good good deserve to come to out a few, not is, in my opinion, but I've been there is this whole thing. People are saying it's that it's that restructuring of society. You know in ITALY: to make it better. After this the whole har right, which is yes, people are gonna, say it's now
fourth commuting, that'll make traffic better and people will say it's not worth. You know, go to college, worth better, whatever I believe, really know. If any of that's going to happen, it could be. The people were bleed, more desperate to go to offices and they were before and always had or more desperate. It said, they're good school. More desperate to be away from home. Then they were, but but there still, this kind of idea that, oh, maybe maybe my deepest guenaud fantasy, which is that the American hired national system will be destroyed, will be hastened by this and that we could go back. I because Twenty, because every every destruction snare you could come up with does nothing but bad to the school like, in other words, the schools. What can have no reason to partition maybe at like here some of the ideas people have had right three years of college instead of four. Why in England people go to college,
three years, not for why do we have for years we're just patting the cost? That's ridiculous! We should go to three years and this proves that whatever somehow that That'S- which it, but, of course that means that this close kept what's up, why? Why would they want to know? Why would they want to participate in common in an effort to lower their their tuition receipts by twenty five percent so you need them to have some by in on the transformation cause. It's supposed to save them. Money and resources to. But There is no way for that to happen. The system can only be destroyed with their resistance. You know under under those terms
this was not rose expected with conversation took the go cause. You got your set of cut your subconscious registered yesterday that Felicity husbands daughter actually took her own S eighty and got into a college without having had her parents. Projects like this is that this is that this is both a kind of wonderful and terrible story. So felicity husbands daughter. Felicity happened did fourteen days in jail the eye ass. You know Oscar nominee and Emmy winner. You know star of a love of a major American Television programme. She or a love letter, the two faces of the market, scandal right and so her heart a story was that she had her daughters, s, eighty score, a rigged with her daughters, knowledge or raspberries knowledge or anybody else's knowledge, and that now I think, he's lying.
I think there is no way that he knew they would have a him too if he had known and they didn't. I that's why I don't think you knew But you know she said I I just I don't feel like. I was ever a good mother, and so I was trying to be a better mother reader mother. Motherhood has always been an anxiety to me, blah blah blah and the thing that broke. My heart was my daughter saying to me. I can't believe you didn't trust I could get into college on my own. I was just awful and then get. Not only did she get into college, she got into Carnegie Melon, which is a pop American University and I So what she's doing it for theatre where it is, I think one of the top three amount universities, so how Great for her? How you more awful about the story of felicity have Doing this to her daughter, I minutes it's interesting and Anna obsessional thing for me in and Christine screwed
Christine is Christine is very worried that the latest detail Laurie waffling story are going to get off. They heard yes, do shit, she's, it's very bad that that the tone towards lorry has turned in its like a bit like one of those. You know homer television, movies, she's cheese. Suddenly gonna be you know that in a vintage hated rather than vilified- and I think I don't want to see that happen- really feel like she deserves some some harsh punishment here. Just that will get off this of the second logistics way. What we're talking about so lorry lawful and having been one of the few people to plead that girl, is she and her husband massive, originally planned, not guilty and parsley blue scandal and of good our pig lawyers, ugly amounts of money to approach to help limit the case and as a result of diligence. Legal discovery found out that there is a note written by the architect of the scandal
singer saying. They asked me to fear that asked me to fib about Something or other in relation to lorry lawful in it, so this piece of Scott budgetary evidence was not in it the claim is that the prosecution, no wing Lee suppress. This did not provide it too bad to dig it up themselves at Missus of four prosecutor almost conduct, and the case could The case could be dismissed and the judge actually said that that she was concerned at the at the behaviour of the prosecutors none of which explains why lorry loss of your husband took fake pictures of their daughters yet. But she has here to show that we were hours and all of that anyway, but just ass, she had
she's had what we might call a good pandemic. Them is activated on her down. You go back to our friends who were having the good pandemic. As I keep hearing from people say things like so thrilled because I don't have to travel died out after I was travelling to three days a week and I don't have to travel any more. This is great. This fantastic. I operands are on the West Coast or having absolutely too much fun atrocious. They have no decency eyebrow, that's that's what is waiting for you to say now. That's why I brought it up and you should have at least the common courtesy to keep your thriving tigranes. Yes, I've been Myra, and yet my dynamic is actually rather fun cause. I have basically to people in my life. I keep in touch with at this point that you are my child, my children's friends, that at some point my life, my children, dictated who my friends would be, and I forgot when that changed but its long ago,
been the case, so one of them is personally taking fewer risks still generally interacting with society, but is heaps opprobrium on anyone who dares question the author ready and longevity of these lockdown and the other one is so risk of earth. I don't think I'm gonna see him until twenty twenty two, but is it is? absolutely livid over the lock downs and one society to restore at the nearest possible moment will not take part in that society. Mind you but hopes. Everybody else does. I'm not very fun dynamic, so is it right that the devil, an angel on your shoulder both of them? You know the absolute maximum dispositions and either end of the spectrum. Five, a friend who you know I do there, Then some emotional fireworks of my house. There are three kids at my wife me in eleven hundred square feet at close quarters. Three zooms, simultaneous zoom in school, and I have to do my work at my
I've had to do her work and you know it some and then, if it rains, if we a bad day, so that people are really want to go outside and threats to their legs. You know the by by seven thirty at night the mood has turned positively ingmar Bergmann Ashen, we're all standing by the window. Layers look longingly out the window and crying and get out, then smashing glass and stuff like that, and so I was saying This cannot go on that. Allow my friends like what are you talking about? This is fantastic. I've never had a better time, and I said I have to get out of the how like what's going on, is like my daughter hasn't, but out of the house, its March twenty first and I'm like ok. I know you're telling me I'm crazy, like AIR Asia Louvres in the attic liked what this guy think out and have a great apartments and they're all good cook
and they have a lot of food and it's very easily get foodstuff severed and he's. The proper anyway and you know they're doing a lot of organizing it all this. But it was rather a Manhattan proper in the sense of was always in his the back of his mind that something terrible could happen and they have very large storage kept that are filled with food, because his wife is a great cookin at make dinner's were twenty five people all the time, so they just happened to have law murdered provision larders like like, like they're out a family and a willow gathered novel facing the winter or are you not war? The war they Ingles is or something you now anyway, so there have a great time not going outside and if that's
The way you can do tat how to handle it than they have up a horrid Europe or a terrorist selling. They like up it now that they stick her head out. The window furnish their head of the window to cheer further you know where they healthcare workers at seven o clock, like everybody else in New York anyway, I'm just saying People are not people who Who have a particular psychological are taking a particular cycle article pleasure this end, and you know I am as I am as slug like. Everybody on earth like. I could lie on my couch for forty eight hours without moving, if you know, if, if necessary- and I think my slug days or are at an end and when I say I think this having had a glimpse of what life would be like whether it is involuntary. I dont know that you know there is nothing I will not go to now is what I say:
like there is no. There is no handled discussion has, We're gonna get out of the other guy you're your book release party about my ultimate error now, but I'm saying, like I get invited to ten penalty, though the disc a discussion of the. Relationship between Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. I'm there let let me go, but you know it's not gonna be like that New York. That's the other thing. That is this thing about this, which is we're talking about I'm saying they're gonna have to open up in all. This is. Oh, very unclear to me how how crowded cities manage. So I am a more my attention is that this will all be said, Rosa at first and then it will just appear, and politicians will take credit for it
acknowledge it, but I saw somebody say you know I can't wait until they allow for in a ten percent or less gatherings today, who is allow. No, but it's not gonna happen, one less! You had hate get your office. The whole question is: if you can't, if you have to be six, we depart from everybody, but it is deemed and people themselves demon unsafe to be on a subway car in New York, six million people take the subway every day, six million people, if that perhaps this three million fine, then It will actually be more pleasant to ride on the subway, but it can only do after three million, if if why in New York City? As we know, it ceases to exist. And they because that means no one will go to a restaurant. No one will go to a movie. Theater known will go to the theatre. No one will go to the opera. No one will go anywhere or do anything where there are
out or enough people will not, and it is for those who are not just risk averse, but hyper safety. Conscious, who want a bubble rapped at all, life's sharp edges? I mean this is in the opportunity of lifetime and when life gets back tonight, under our noses, they will not participate in it, but because a lot answers will be made for them tonight. Ethically, yes, but You're saying that as though this is an extreme position, and I am saying that this will not be this- is the movie safe, where, where Juliet more is like sits in her house and you know live Without ever opening or Dorcas. She thinks the atmosphere is, is making her sick. We'll be in city they'll, be a million Juliet, where's, that of eight eight million? And that's a lot of people? It's not that's not. You know an extreme reaction,
and the cities economy can't survive it I mean at end, and so I am but a little the April, but Sub Rosa brought in to be where you know into real one of those people are going to vote with their feet, like people did after nine eleven and leave the city right, they'll say it. I've learned a terrible lesson here. I'm gone to some of those data will be gone and others will come back in, and I think yes, that's true for New York City but the rest of the country if it has moved on, and if the that this sort of messages we ve got to get back to doing what we're doing we ve got it. We gotta have a new sort of calculation of risk here, then those people will look especially like privileged outliers to the rest of the country. And they will not be catered too. I think for very long or just gonna hold ups, the japanese soldiers on remote Pacific islands, it in surrender until nineteen sixty one. They will be in other anachronisms sort of adorable what books
things that everybody can vote with their feet. This is where the sun, like two thousand and nine, as you bet I wasn't. You gonna play one is about. Yes, you can afford to leave right, but what I'm saying another people who will see their real estate valley has declined by forty percent and they will be underwater and they will lose a lot of money and they won't be able to sell and then they'll be trapped in the city that they think is killing them. With an inability to take a walk like that, because you know, let's say they bought an apartment for eight hundred and if these thousand dollars they can sell for five, and they owe six on it and they- and you know the so you Know- and that's it that's a modest. I was doing, met a scale things in a way that people were not from here could even imagine and that's like nothing. What I'm talking about K offered a crushingly morose thought muskets,
I don't wanna, be the only one I get so there's a lot of talk about how we wouldn't we're gonna go back to something, but not the thing that we had before where the pandemic right and that, even when the thing that when restrictions officially dropped. We're going to observe social, distancing and all sorts of ways and we can be created about it, and and don't worry about it and whatnot. I could see that for certain parts of the country how on earth does New York endure, opening with social distancing at all I mean in the long run, is everything about the city that that is that it that attracts people too? It has to do with mass gatherings. It's it's about theatre, it's about! Restaurants! It's about hours it's about and it's about getting around in the mass transportation.
I don't see it being remotely sustainable but most to be fair, mop, not all cities. Obviously there are sort of way the twentieth century cities right Dallas away places like that that are built on car culture and therefore, can you can sort of you said you could serve live in a socially just, its fashion in some way, but New York isn't like that Boston slot like that much of Chicago is not like that. San Francisco is certainly not like that. My aunt it's not like that any any place that actually as a functioning mass transit system is a place that will have you know there will be this kind of panic about. Getting to work, you know or or going anywhere, and so it's not just a New York problem. We keep going emails from people saying that show your show is to New York Centric Guinea, Deborah a different perspective
Well, I'm sorry, we have the perspective that we have and in fact was not in New York, is a new jersey. Christine is and is in Washington, Washington. Another city that is, you know where hundreds of thousands of people take take mass transit ever nay, I mean it's what I do. I don't know what the I dont know what I have said this before the logic of flattened the curve was always prolong this experience for a really long time- and I are politicians and health experts- did not prepare as well for the paradigm matic task- that's before us now- which is to make yet another hard choice Dory there are lost decade or to endorse some really tolerable death and prolonged infections for a real along. Period if New York is twenty. Five percent infected at this then he or on the pathway to resuming light as we know it or new it always
explain. Why would a form of heard immunity, whereas the closeness will be New York cities advantage at a certain point in this crisis, but for some reason this is an idea that, while people, I would think about the anti facts or movement, the Anti Vassar Movement Shows- and I don't know how big it is, but it's larger than one would wish to be right. It's probably ten to fifteen percent of the country, though you know people Hard immunity is why we have asked why why we vaccinate everybody, it is very hard for people to grasp. It turns out that concept of her community can be very hard for people to grasp when their emotions are engaged so the idea that it is better to be to have gotten it and gotten over it as opposed to avoid it, because the obviously, if you have come morbidity, is.
Were the things that are you no trick triggers were like really serious problem. With the virus. Then I don't mean to I believe all that, but telling people you know you just have to risk heard immunity hurt immunity is not a risk, is, is as a macro phenomenon is the safest way to deal with any disease, not the least safe, but that is counter Intuit to a lot of people who here. Oh you mean I, I give my kid a little bit of sickness in order to trigger the condition that will mean that the kid doesn't get sick. What if they get sick from the little you give em in the via you know, and then they are not doing that to my child. You know what about preservative. You know, and you're gonna hear this when there is a vaccine. You know, and it is actually a weird little issue right because vaccination,
kill what you know. There are these kind of free cases where people allergic to the vaccine. And yes, there is one in ten thousand or one in five thousand or something like that. But if you're vaccinate thirty billion people at once. There's gonna be a measurable number of deaths from the vaccination and then you're gonna. Have this whole thing where the government is killing you where the governess killing people of color, who may be disproportionate. Effected by the vaccine or this or that, whatever you know it so Even the vaccine. Isn't the solution in some odd way to two coming back to normal. We
I think, in an odd way there is a bit of a curse in getting back to normal because covered nineteen isn't as deadly as we feared. It was no words like it, it's not the plague, it's not a bowler, it's not! You know it's not! It's not flesh eating diseases, p. Corpses aren't lying in the street. And so the do whatever we can to get over get get through this and get past this. It's gonna be hard for people too. I don't know I mean I have an idea in my head. The way it's hard it's hard for me to articulate, but about this there's something about it not being as deadly as it feared that Is contributing to the doldrums oddly enough when it could be
tribute to the we need to reopen, which I think will be an elite. You know what things that will be a down a bottom up thing. I think it's gonna be an elite thing just to clarify. I think that we are at the stage that I predicted, where this is a bottom up phase. As Abe said, you know, you can see it in cell phone data, but otherwise it's very hard you talk about it because you won't be able to see it. By definition, it will be so stigmatized and police. That is the kind of thing happens under your nose, but once it comes elite opinion. It will have already been opinion among boy polloi for quite some time and will all this become consensus, and I think that's what you're a north suggesting will happen next week. I think it's promoting next. We could now habitats that next week is too soon. I'm just saying you know how much now much and the projects that were staring down the barrel in the northeast of a pretty chilean wet sprang into
early summer, which is going to prolong that that eventuality, but once we get it consistently to the seventies, I think it becomes an inevitability. You know, then, you have us in other phenomena, phenomenon that media companies and others are now starting to face, which is that you know this is an advertising deserto ever everything that everything that is that relies on on advertising for revenue is, is Some had a kind of You'd have self go self motor thing going in the ads that you see these buzz. Our every at every at is the same the curve the set. You know we're here for you and then someone looking at a window and then it somebody talkin somebody through a door and then its cheering for the healthcare workers, and it's like who who is this this time? Is this Verizon? Is it yeah yeah? I mean it's like they're all
making the same commercial and then there can be no commercials and then you know what not that I think that you have news. Decisions are made by the corporate the chieftains or anything like that. No God, God forbid, you know cause of the church, state divisions and all that, but if every newspaper America's gonna closed, because there are no ads and end the cable networks taken. Third of the revenue that they were going to take they might want to shift the story, some. How how that happens, because it's not your no one's gonna have a meeting and say why would they can say people can't hear about the semi more they're turning us off, We are now we are. We are depressing and demoralising people were not. You know we're not rally them and we're not providing news were just being kind of ghoulish and that we need to move on to other stuff. Funny anecdote briefly sort of like dark morbidly funny the subject of our two minutes hate today.
Is a Arizona based local republican official, who advised people protesting against these locked down, and open up the economy too, where medical gear to wear scrubbs and face mass to appear as though you were a medical professional, because that will contribute to the narrative that the press likes and wants to report- and that's you know horrible, just at an atrocious attack, to manipulate the press. Does anybody remember the Rose Garden two thousand nine press conference in which the White House handed out screw doctors coats to everybody in attendance in order to create the narrative that the affordable care act was the medical professions can and it were it works and everybody knows it yeah, and I was it- was terribly uncouth even report on that fact. But the fact of the matter is that that's savvy and I expect to see a lot more savvy in the effort to manipulate public in public.
I'll look opinions and especially the press, which is a very, very much against anything that has to do with opening up the economy too too soon, and if you are a medical, professional you're not supposed to wear your scrubbs out like if you ve been treated, the patient posted then go directly to a due to the anti protest in your scrubbs covered with virus like that that there were a few cases, where the utmost. I saw that tv. I thought that's just of course, and they all got rate press they were carried out, will test. I of course- and they all got fantastic press, a creating an incentive structure that now the press really resents. That's like Leslie Nielsen, an airplane, your member, whether their walking up and down there. You know someone is passed out, and so the stores, the walking up and down the aisle going as anybody here, a doctor's there, a doctor and that a woman says stood I think the man next to me as a doctor than the camera heads over there was a real sudanese wearing a stethoscope. His airplane feed. Yes, I've, a doktor tat, they don't need scrubbs, just put this debt.
Scope in your ear or like or like remember those things I guess night, they don't use of any more than that. The thing the reflector yeah that would be. That would be good. Do we have anything else to discuss, except for the fact that the probably Kim Jong on is not dead cause? You don't you think we would know he was dead if he was dead, how soon would we now, I don't know, I think, he's probably not dead, maybe he's zero, maybe he's been cut out and they haven't figured out. You know them forget, has I was gonna go otherwise, but to how old is he sees weren't you than what I having like cosmetics,
It turns out everybody's younger than you for God's sake, I'm looking up. How old is he's thirty, six asking that, while what didn't he but condition did he have, quiet, major surgery or do we even know you didn't have certain morbidly obese. As I understand it cardiac condition that was he was having surgery for by like one who knows. You knows, though, because I wrote ok so we have that we have that. So we just deal with that good sovereign wealth. Do we have there nothing else, we could talk. Ok, you, President Biden, travails, ok, look! I mean levels but you said this yesterday going to say it today: okay, a woman says that he did this come from really disgusting thing to her right and, and apparently she told people about it around the time that it has.
It doesn't mean that had happened now we understand however, just because she said that it happened. It does me that to happen, and it it does appear to be behaviour. That is not characteristic abiden right right you're right about this. That the thing is that there's the press narrative is the only interesting story, Are we? Why are we allowed to say, credibly, accused windows? When does the ubiquitous twenty eighteen phrase credibly accused become acceptable because that was everywhere in about thirty seconds, when it was Rick having on the dark, the Washington, Post headline exemplifies the problem you haven't had something I haven't out for quite some time. I will quote developments allegations against Biden amplify efforts to question his behaviour that is incomplete
sensible, there is no J school class that teaches you to be that obtuse. Writing a headline. It is the had to have gone through three or four different era. Since, before they landed on this mass, this basket case of a headline because they didn't want to say Republicans parts, but that's what they're communicating here and that's the republican pounds, the the logic of republican pounds, the razor is that the worse, the event is for Democrats politically, the more the coverage focuses on the reaction to the event. Specifically the reaction to this. And from Republicans, as opposed to the event itself. Ok, let's make it clear by the way who who has advanced the reporting on this. It's this guy Brian Mchugh, who were as Ronan Pharaoh's colleague at NBC, on the Harvey Weinstein's story. So it's not bright Bart it out.
And he is doing it in business insider which has not bright part. So that is why they can't do Republicans pounds I can't the cannon they are because the people who are paying attention to this are Republicans to people who were who are reacting to it are really looking right. You were to do a Democrats react yet this story, narrative, you would have a paragraph in half because there is no reaction, there has been no attempt to seek no, no brought a tent balancing, no none period but there has been no comprehensive party wide attempt to get the parties major political thing, on the record, Mulatto is the major spokesperson right now on the democratic side. You know people are kind of trying to avoid this issue. The daily collar called every damn Braddock Senator to ask for a response and was refused by every press officer
every office, which is by the way, that's fine, so stop doing me. No republican centre would respond tilled, trumps latest, a great thing, but don't you think this is starting to have that slow, inexorable force to like moving toward or are there that the major headlines and like it it is it's sort of breaking out, despite the best efforts or, but that all the effort of you like so look at Rebecca tracer rate, something in the organizing the other day about it, and the entire thing was. This is so terrible for feminists, because it's pretty hasn't is pick up where we actually have to be consistent, and we don't want to be consistent on this. But the entire story is isn't she's a woman I'm in this, but the contortions that are required to treat this as distinctly different from all of the other as Noah said, credibly. Accused stories is, I agree with you Abe it can't it's not sustainable
sustainable chryslers contention was that feminists are going to be victimized yet again as it as their Kurt there. There inevitably a permanent can deal The other would gladly looking after hated this conditions, the societal conditions in which powerful men can be held to account for this kind of behaviour. They are the victims of their own success, as it were. I went to like which When I hear that it just I been what what what she was saying was binding, we hope here to get past. This is to appoint a wonderful progressive. Like the people, I like Stacy can't be, yo see because Ios? is to young but Stacy Abrams be fine. She engine, some pilot, some Indian american politicians, whose name I can't remember, who must be like a first term Congress person,
or somebody else. That's like, but they're gonna be put in a horrible position. Cause they're gonna have to defend, but I didn't mean it has it's just. Delay ever reckon with the fact that the binding campaign has paid them. No mine, the progressive wing of this party, I mean to the effect that they get a big a biscuit thrown up every once in a while, but they have not been quartered. I think they should be and there they were here to think about. Have a lot more leverage. Then I think the binding campaigns seems to believe they do. But listen I mean. I am old enough to have been a serious participant in the year of Lewinsky Gay, so You know twenty two years ago I was the up at her than Europe up OP, Ed we hope than your post, you now had nine months of Lewinsky you now I wrote
hundred editorials on the matter that were far more measured than people ever could possibly leave because we never came out and said that he should be impeach removed from office for it? That was the feminists. As I said yesterday, that was the feminist Gerda Dahmer wrong. I'm it that way the moment at which, when the rubber met the road, it was more important to keep the Christian right from taking over the presidency than it was to continue dancing the argument that sexual harassment in the workplace was terrible because it jeopardized you know they're there most fervently held convictions that, when you think about that now, from the perspective of today, there's something fascinating about that, because of course, if Clinton had been
forced to resign if there had been a kind of like groundswell, the Democratic Party that Seti mutes resign or some like that Al Gore would have become president like it's not like. Do Gingrich would have become president that without wasn't that the cliff, White House brilliantly manage to create the conditions under which it was Clinton or nothing. It was Clinton or- or you know, the hand made to the world of the handmaid tail. Even though Clinton was off, Red Clinton was Fred, Newt wasn't, Fred Clinton was red, Clinton was using is in terms like toilet tissue and yet so there, a deep historical precedent for turning on a dime and and and suppressing anew in convened, news, because you are politically worried but the effect of it and they
I've forty see it right. I mean they made L Frank in the day. They already no, they ve internalize the fact that they may thou Frank and resign and now their sorry for it they made Alfredo resided effort to be the thing where Roy more to destroy the Republicans with Roy WAR, while offering resign avoid more didn't wind, this links to your own ramification right, I mean the than the falcon They may the feminist maiden bullied. Ninety nineties resulted in two losses they lost face and they lost the political angle here with doesn't This isn't this just repeating the exact same mistakes. By making this compromise, this principle compromise will double in defending, but nobody's defending bite me out that that's that since that was, if you remember there, was a writer named ah, rubber her name right now, but she said that she would
happily give Clinton what Monica gave Clinton, because he preserves abortion rights I can't believe that camera remember them. Cuz I newer, even and I'm blocking but I mean that was nodded atypical thing. You know it when, when the White House retailing. The idea that Monica was it was it was not job was a lunatic was crazy. When my wasn't even doing anything Nina burly a burly. Thank you very much. Monica Lewinsky wasn't going out and voluntarily testifying in front of can start by. Monica did Bonica kept her silent. You know marketing do anything and they trashed her within an inch of her life and they were. That was something
with which you heard during the me to thing these moments. I think even Rebecca traced, her sing. I may you know we should have been better about Clinton. Ok can I can. I can I just say one of that sort of metaphysical consequences of how feminist behaving Nicolet Narras. I am, I think, I'm almost exactly Monica Wednesday's age. I was in Washington when it all went down. I was young. I kind of figuring out
your wise. What to do that was it for me and a lot of women. I knew who would probably could have generally generically Syria them a feminist. I believe women should have equal rights. That was it. That was it for us a mean. Even those of us who were more conservative leading on everything else, saw that hypocrisy, just blatant hypocrisy and said I can call myself a feminist anymore and there's an entire generation of young women ones, who were quite progressive politically, who are still uncomfortable with the label feminist, and I think there are long term repercussions for that. So when you know traced her and others of her generation wine and wins about how this well maybe reach, we may call, but I don't buy it, I don't buy it at all. I think it is incredibly convenient in the contortions are going to continue to make in this case are an echo of all of the cop moral.
Our Mises they made back then- and I say this while saying I dont believe terror read by the way now her case is not particularly strong. Aggregated though I don't do. I see no reason I think is: do the presumption of innocence as Brookhaven I was as everybody is as everybody on campus, who was sent through a star chamber. Owing to changes in department of education rules presided over in part by Jo Vice President Joe Biden. You know the cases that Casey Johns wrote about and commentaries three years ago where they were, I believe, fifty seven successful court cases in which peace. Who were it was ruled by judges that people had been denied due process elementary due process in, in that their it meant by their universities that they attempted he certainly deserves the presumption of innocence, but
I have to admit personally I've I've become somewhat more ambivalent about what I believe may or may not have happened. It really is, and it is up to us I'm Europe's that rights valuable debate the mind and what everybody seems to have forgotten in the cabinet case and when a lot of people are forgetting. Now is that if we are truly treating these allegations as serious as they are, which is what advocates for me to movement, want them to be we would treat them as criminal cases and nodded gotta keep them in the court of public opinion, but we seem incapable of doing that. Well, how can we truly is a criminal case have happened, twenty seven years ago, like there's no forensic evidence, there's the only could precisely emulated and the statute of limitations to varies from state to state on allegation. Sexual assault, I'm not familiar with them in this case, so you know yet reserving judgment.
Airbus assuming there is a statute that has elapsed then you're you should talk about. It is, though it's got cold case file which Something you really can't sit you can applying onto heavily. You can speculate on the evidence before you and say that really all we know and that you because, the criminal matter and should be a criminal matter. We can't really speculate further. That's really what has been done in the Joe Biden case admirably, it's just a hurry a double standard, and everybody should be shamed within an inch of life over oh, Don't worry about it, because the double standard will re emerge. Yes, what what's gonna happen in the next two weeks, as there will be a convenient republican sexual harassment charge to provide distraction material,
for people who you now I don't know I've been in the absence. What about tremble? Suffice? While there is another one now once but they're not gonna. Suffice, though there has to be a new one. Certainly oh republic, Gazelle Biden, publicans pounced on Biden, but you know Senator Smith Direct from Guenaud I'd. Oh, you know the genome scented sent a text; As you know, in turn coordinator many had it twenty fourteen I don't know, namely that republicans have stood by Donald Trump. Despite the third three hundred and seventy six women accused him of Ex Lizzy, I mean settled, I say I'd say there will be a new charge against a prominent Republican Noah says it's
that's a sorry ably. Maybe I say I know centres mender tremendous. He would never ever behave in the way I was just thinking. I only want to look at what the speculators to watch mender. Its preferences might be in this case, but I dont think its this far fetched as you do, you know I mean I could see they need they'll need a distraction. They need they'll needed distraction from this, as if, as aid by things correctly argued it it kind of. Slowly is building some momentum? Okay, so so everything this terrible, but we ended on a bizarrely upbeat, is somehow because we're talking about something else. We got ten minutes to talk about something else. Mandrake principle this meant imprisoning. Second, myself, wouldn't back tomorrow for a proceeded. No, I'm John upwards keep the camel burning.
Transcript generated on 2020-08-03.