« Commentary Magazine Podcast

Is the Spending the Problem?

2021-07-29 | 🔗
There is a bipartisan infrastructure deal, and it looks likely to pass. The smorgasbord of other progressive wish list items that was supposed to follow its passage, however, is more imperiled than ever. Couple this with a disappointing second-quarter GDP number, and you have to wonder if the government spending to which we’ve committed ourselves over the course of the pandemic is the problem.
This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
Welcome to the Commentary magazine Daily Podcast these Thursday July twenty nine twenty twenty one, I'm John, but towards the editor, commentary magazine, which you can find it our new. U L, W W W that commentary, dot Org, where we offer you a few free reads before we ask you to subscribe with us. As me me, losing a droll by verbiage here, executive editor, a Green Waldheim, Hydra assault
the other two, no rotten high Noah Asia and senior redder Christine Rosen High Christine, I can so just to mix it up to start with covered the announcement that the small infrastructure deal by small I mean it's a billion by a trillion dollars, not that small, it still like you know it fine years ago. This would have been the largest bill in the history of mankind. That's that's! That's where we're going with this spending like we have so adjust The De Overton Window on spending than a trillion dollars now seems like a relatively modest spending bill compared to other proposals. Other things that happened nonetheless, trillion dollars in actual infrastructure spending. The Senate passed a allowed it to go forward with a very interesting sixty seven to thirty two vote. Among
the voting to move the bill, tab consideration on the floor. What was said a majority Senate minority later Mitch, Mcconnell, and so evidently it's gonna pass. There are two interesting things I wanna go. To an and talk about, one of which is how its being paid for, which is kind of interesting and com, and the other is everybody has been worried over or the leader urban worried over flavouring over the possibility that there exists of this bill, and the existence of this idea are simply it's like a kind of adjunct to the passage of this giant it's three point: five trillion dollar Biden Budget wish, socialist, statist we monstrosity. But
Kristen Cinema came out last night and said she oppose the three point. Five trillion dollar bill, while she of course supports, and as one of the centre involve negotiation on. The smaller infrastructure bill and an old, takes one Democrat to kill the bill one or two. Fifty fifty Senate. All fifty Democrats have to vote for this Three point: five trillion dollar bill, assuming all Republicans vote against it and then Common Harris Breaks, the tie and the bill becomes law under the budget- reconciliation rules that mean it does not. It is not subject to the filibuster so that the path back, which was well wise, wire republicans negotiating over this when they're just being handmade to the larger bill that some interest
happened here. We don't know where this all comes from, but the fact that Cinema announced this on the day that they announced the at this. The small, the skinny infrastructure bill, I think, is pretty striking and seems to indicate that she did this deliberately in order To say I want this bill. We are not going to do that bill. What do you make of it now. I dont know what I make of it necessarily save for the fact that I think people like us and the rate generally was more sceptical. That of palatability of three point: five trillion dollar interests, fake infrastructure, bill social infrastructure, whenever family infrastructure, whenever you want to call it. The redefinition effort to call me whatever they wanted infrastructure, had failed miserably months ago.
So you knew that just the rebranding was gonna be difficult to say nothing of the fact that Spending still matters spending still matters, it doesnt matter to the press. It doesn't matter to progressive those are the people who define or come our national conversation around whatever you know, we were trying to pass here, but even in this infrastructure bell enjoying Wanna go good into this a little bit, but this is the only thing that interests me is the pay force here. Are you say really fascinating because it is mostly pay for its, not deficit spending per se, and it doesn't it highly rely on dynamic, scoring e g growth, economic growth, creating more revenue in taxes. Therefore, paying for this thing eventually down the road, which is a scheme, that's really of noxious, but his prey, in Washington. It pays for itself for the most part. Don't spending that they already passed. Does anybody remember that we passed several trillion dollars? spending last year and
a kind of sitting around on dispersed- and this is the sort of thing that doesn't matter that is relevant to our cultural, arbiters or political arbiters, who were by enlarge far much farther left in the rest of the country, but it really does to the voters that they presume to speak for okay. So, on that question of the pay force, we have a couple of interesting aspects of one of which is they are going to re purpose, all kinds of money that was apparently authorized for on unemployment insurance at state level. That states refused to pay out, and so it's that it out which the states that refuse to pay out, of course, of the states that are that that aren't going through the same kinds of horrendous and horrific labour shortages that the states our paying out both the federal and the state three hundred dollars a week, unemployment.
It's our paying that's number, not just unemployment insurance and want to introduce that seriously from that from a peep right up out of the bills particulars I'm tapping it's also tapping about two hundred and five billion in unspent covert nineteen relief aid and just as apparent political Congress has provided about four point: seven trillion dollars in emergency assistance during the pin them life really in yonder is on time talking about three point: five and the guy. I know whatever. Ok, Why don't? We go had looked? Why using spending matters too soon, do you know it's now he sat now has it is putting downward political pressure. The abbot. There's no appetite for this kind of spending in the american body Politic and states not smart discussed because it's not something other interests, the press, it's not something that interests progressive Democrats in Congress, but the sentiment again, excessive spending. First, for its own sake,
is what is putting downward political pressure on on the passage of this supplemental reconciliation, build that's what problem here is the spending not what they want, but ok, but we need that. We really do need to separate these strands goes. We have The proposed three point: five trillion dollar budget reconciliation, which is the wish list, and then we the one trillion dollar infrastructure bill, which is the by partisan build ago. She aided by the bipartisan commission, which is the one where there are these paid for it, has to pay for itself. So how does it pay for itself? So it's interesting number one, there's a whole bunch of money that comes from the the unemployment insurance that isn't being spent. And then there is all this money from from other aspects of the covert relief bill that haven't been spent and a huge amount of money
that is going to come from some gimmick where they're going to require reporting on crypto currency sales and taxation. Now wise is increasing wealth because, first of all, this is good thing, not a bad thing. If they're gonna use money that has already been authorized for covered relief to pay for this because apparently there was too much money authorized, recovered relief if you can just take that they all will just use this pot of money. For that, then, obviously it was too much again the governed relief bell that can be re purpose in this fashion and therefore its good that were there not looking for other pay for as they actually killed, The idea of hiring lots of irish workers to sort of ETA dig through the taxes of everybody in America
in a ring out more tax dollars to pay for it. That was something that think I killed a lot a couple of other, very good things have killed. There was going to be this infrastructure bank, in which the federal government would provide money to help pay for infrastructure projects as a see that, even though it does me in some small way, a bank for white, and it was gonna, be like sixty billion dollars and the Republicans were like. I don't know what this is for, and who's gonna run it now. It's gonna work and so that that's, ok, fine! It's probably was like probably some proposal in you know a you know, a liberal, what some liberal version of it out national affair errors or some. You know Brookings paper on how this would help with infrastructure. But I mean this is actually ethical, slightly heartening developed, but that they're they're using already authorized money. Instead of going to the
going to the well for new money for this infrastructure bill, which is clearly a pass right there. Sixty seven votes to advance it to the fore in the Senate. It's gonna pass. That's that's so Is it a bad bill or is it a good bill? Does anybody have an opinion on whether or not this is a good thing or a bad thing? Nobody is just a thing travelling to make a value judgment around. You know pregnant Britain, dispersing sons to states for the purpose of refurbishing roads and bridges and public transit and freight rail vehicle charging stations. I mean this is the sort of thing that's gonna happen. Eventual He probably has to happen the line of organisation on the right that infrastructure, a crumbling than its true, it's not crumbling everywhere, but nevertheless this does have to be financed and the federal government financing it is
probably part of its remit, and so again under the notion here, that's gonna, be wildly popular among the public is probably overinflated, but its did this. The thing that government is supposed to do at least as opposed to you now creating a vast network of childcare. Nationals, rain government run facilities that are totally new redefinition of the social compact. This is within the existing framework of the social compact. We understand it, but this is all something in the bite administration is gonna use to argue that he is an effective bipartisan. They are lucky works. Negotiates with Republicans, unlike that prick this guy, you can really trust him to understand how the politics works. Looks out, look how well he did. You know governed. This governance, the adults are in charge. This is it. This is gonna, be a prime example going into the mid term elections of the Democrats ability to govern which, although we should talk about what the for the risk answers to cinemas actions which perhaps are an argument for how they can very well in the house, but I think it
we'll be used effectively by the by the administration for that sort of messaging, as well I mean I don't see why that's an undeserved necessary, exactly now, I'm not running it. Isn't I dont think it helps. I think it only helps abiding by the Red Army. They help will help individual democratic senators and republican centres who him go back to their constituencies state. Why constituencies? Not you know not either incredibly progressive crazy base considered Caesar trumpeting constituencies and say: look you sent me to Washington to work across the aisle to get things done, and I I did that after years of I'm getting down. It's been seven or eight years since there was a major by Harrison bill. We did this, I'm proud of it. And, what's more Republicans will be able to say we cannot this infrastructure bank we eliminated most of the spending that was gonna. Go this astonishing five hundred thousand charging stations for teslas.
Which is at which was a staggering thing that was happening, because if, in fact the Tesla, the electric car is popular and is something that people need charging stations for those charging stations, will be created in three weeks by entrepreneurs at the local level, who will gas, the horrible ass charging stations to their gas stations in three weeks, we don't need federal government directive and here's the thing that is cleaner, those is, as far as I understand it if you're a Tesla honour, it's really not that hard to find a charging station if you own any other electric vehicle, it's a nightmare right! Well, some points? We will have to lead to the marble standard right. Well, so TAT S. What you know Tesla wants you to buy a teslas specific charging station for your garage. So it's you know it's it's its sub its power.
I Terry technology or something I assume they'll be some kind of a dongle or something like that where you will be able to charge a battery charged with another thing that makes possible charge. Vat or my point- is that this is this delusion the only thing that can happen when you have technological Innovation is the government needs to pay for every part of it if it works. If the if the electric car becomes the substitute whereas on the way to becoming a substitute for the fossil fuel car. Yet our fortunes are be made by individual private small businessmen who wanted. You know who want to make some money by? you could put a charging stations anywhere there. All are there in parking lots? You could put one. You know you could put one in front of you. If you have a veto component, in a shopping mall parking lot. You there are in shopping, mall parking lots, it does whatever
as long as there is money to be made from it, people will make money from it, so Republicans will be able to say that they took the original infrastructure bill and they shaped it into something that is an infrastructure bill, and if you are, you know a libertarian. You don't like this kind of spending you're, not gonna like it, but I think, as Noah says, this is actually something the government is supposed to do is supposed to maintain. The upkeep of our national highway system of you know we have rail system in the United States for national security reasons, not just cause we're trying to support the you know the rails stem it's one of the windows, the main way Cole. I know people democrats don't like called it. The main way the coal is shift across the United States is on is I'm trains, and so we We have to maintain that in various other bass of our of our of our national grid. That is part and parcel of this.
I don't know if it's good or bad, I'm not an I'm, not an expert on this. Can I assume theirs? not a garbage of it. I assume there, the astonishing when a garbage and that their always is, and so you now with it. I had my brothers and I were we know, and I had a pan unsure that I could sit down. You know with with our friends and Kay, I wouldn t I and all that and come up with two things I would want to come but none the less we ve gone three and a half trillion to six trillion dollars down to a trillion dollars in a bill it is going to get by partisan support, so that's not nothing. It is something Biden can claim at something that the people who vote for can claim, and what's more people, suppose it can test out the proposition that the public isn't gonna like it by running against them on this and will see how will see what the electoral benefits are consequences. Are we just don't don't know what what they are
but the cinema thing is it ok, so wet. So two things are free, in the in the squad have responded to the infrastructure bill by complaining that everybody who negotiated it is white Yes, our first Alexandria, O Cassio, Cortez, tweeted out a picture of the by partisan infrastructure group and said a lot of times. Court unquote bipartisan agreements. Scare ports are just as defined by who people in power agree to glued then include and then- and she also went to television complain that they were White and then of course, Corey Bush never never misses an opportunity to make everything about race jumped on with a tweet. That said, negotiation so white, which is a first I just I obviously have a problem with both of these congressman's approached it to happen
do their job, but from out from us clearly democratic standpoint. Their argument makes no at these senators politically in cinema, might be white. We do by the way. I guess I should mention Sullivan a majority, my country, although I guess we're not supposed to mention that However, they represent more minorities than a o c and Corridor Bush, combined in their districts as senators. They represent entire states that have very diverse populations, and if the issue here was about race, their constituents, responding and will those them out next time. But the idea that an at home, in an attack about raises the correct response to legislative statement than a senator makes just shows you how to base that debate has become a mother. The squad. All they can do his attack and they do it on Twitter. It's not an argument. It's an attack, but ok than those is clear, very clearly a good thing. If you weren't you right, look
seal of Iranian require lack senators. This was a voluntary anybody could have been part of this negotiating it was voluntary, they would have had they wanted as many people as would possibly join them to join them. Tim Scott didn't joined them. Corey Booker didn't join them. That was their choice. No one was excluded. Every but he was gonna, be included. Anyone who wanted to be included would be included. That's why it's so despicable fer. You know Elsie to claim that minority voices were excluded the exclusion was done by the minority voices themselves because they didn't want to have their fingerprints on it or they didn't want to be the associated with it, for whatever reason, either they really either. As you know, in the case of TIM, Scott really oppose that you have anything to say or in the case of Corey Booker, he wants to keep his option.
Oh he's keeping his powder dry for get out the next time. He runs as a vague in boyfriend of a of a second Rank movie star four presidents, You know I mean that's so there was dad and then we had appeared, a father who is not a minority, the head of the progressive caucus or something like that That's some we're title like that saying he was gonna vote against the small infrastructure bill because its garbage- and it doesn't do anything that we need done at something like that. So there is this threat, because the right now the majority in the house. I think a seven I mean is that where there are a couple of seats until they noticed when people reported on the results of the Texas special election, that I think there are three open seats currently softened the case, our foreign and thirty, five,
congressmen saint. I want to know about this, but somebody resigns up it their way for a special action somewhere else. So I what the majority is its five at seven, it's three who knows what it is, but if Peter Fazio can get enough people to oppose the bill in the house and screw Nancy, See now that it's her bill, it could go down in the house, the skinny infrastructure bill after and then really stick a dagger in in Joe Biden back as Joe Biden wants this Joe Biden. This is the fourth moment of his most important campaign, promise right, which was a return to normal, see in Washington, not just a return to normal, see about tromp, though that was the lion's share of it, but a return to normal c in the possibility of good the good working order of politics, things people being able to work together, the way he was able to work.
So in silence answer, and so if the house leftists do this- They will be cast raving. The leader of their party in the present United States going into the midst herbs. It's a very interesting and They would be advancing Donald Trump interests for some reason. The people around Donald Trump have decided. This is a health to die on. Thereupon, the president has put out statements opposing this infrastructure Bell saying he's gonna primary anybody who votes for it. Lord knows how funny it's kind of a weird thing to do after the day. After your preferred, candidate loses one of those primary raises, but he's now. He wanted infrastructure Bell, he didn't get it so he's gonna make sure they will do whatever we can to make sure his successor doesn't and progressive soon torpedo it. That would be just fine with the Magyar right, and you know I mean that might be fine with a lot of people on the right.
Just don't like mass of government spending, and I would say I dont like mass of government spending either but the. But there are two forms mass of government spending that our defensible in terms of you know. Annual or Buenos are chosen expenditures, one is the defence budget and the other is infrastructure spending by the way or the other funny part about this- is that term one of the other ways- they're gonna, save money in the in the skinny infrastructure bill is postponing a trump era, a trump renovation to spending on prescription drugs. I dont quite understand how this works, but you know Trump had required or somehow it got through in the Trump administration that beginning this year. If you, if drug companies were going to offer rebates on medication,
those rebates had to be applied at the cash register at the drugstore rather than you have to send in a you know. You have to send in this and that you'd like me, they they make it deliberately hard to get the rebate, the wave rebates, often or la think it out. You get us out of the picture of the prescription and that this in the book. But all in there and then get your you'll get your money back and there like nano fears- and this was eight- by partisan reform right, like Getty, gets a rebate after cash register, apparently by postponing that their claiming they're gonna save thirty billion dollars. I have I, Thirty billion, I have no idea how this works. I dont know how intruding in the rebate process. At the cash register at a drug store is get a euro nationwide is gonna, is gonna.
Told up to thirty billion dollars in federal savings, but nonetheless there, So there is a kind of weird thing where they actually are arc filling a consumer friendly reform that tat, no wonder trump. His magazine you have. This is something I am sure he. You know, Didn't have the Slav foggiest they about, but he always wanted to say adds bad what to drug companies are doing so. This was one wave of dealing with that. And with that, let me talk to you about fast, growing trees, dot com, you gotta, skip the Big Box stores Oh, like what do you want to go there and find some bush that's been sitting there on? The shells were head too fast during trees, dot com? You can do it from your house. It's the way.
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the data on rising. Ok. Well, let's let sir! Let's, let's break that down what data are we talking about, that? We don't have a data from a study that spin vaguely waved adder cited by the CDC as being the evidence for breakthrough infections, which has been the justification for making the vaccinated mask up again, but according to He scholarly publication that this is not yet an peer reviewed, published approved for publication, meaning the data is still. I bet there were some little man the scandal rocketing round so many yesterday about whether it is actually been rejected in the now it's under revision or anyway, it's confusing, there's, no Clare
just like the message it now and I hope that the masking so's confusion in the public, because they're not the camera, very clearly point to evidence that this is actually going to stop the transmission of the virus so raises suspicion amid so we're gonna be. The funny thing is Even worse, if the data were airtight, it's a terrible. It has no bearing on the on the policy that, if they're on their under guidance, you know assumed the data was was accurate. I assume that the the. The viral load of the of the Delta variant is massive and a thousand times higher whenever the number is then than that, Joel version covered, wouldn't it The amazing I still makes absolutely no sense, we discussed this yesterday, but unless you're are, when you hear that
Did you see the rector say you know you have and twenty chance of getting a breakthrough infraction, then you should reflect on the idea that five percent of all vaccinated people are getting covered in, say, wait a minute that doesn't make any sense, because that doesnt reflect even mild my experience anecdotal experience. Nor is that reflected the data or a media. It's just a number she plucked out of the air wishes discouraging the problem, is that people have trouble understanding. This led the motive behind the resumption of mass mandates. It's hard to explain it. To describe because the people who are implementing it can't describe it. They can't convince you of the logic of the But the commencing late, if you're even mildly skeptical, they can't convince you of the logic of this, which may impossible to explain to anybody else. You can't articulate their argument because their argument can't be duplicated. Well,
Evidence went when they are press on evidence. Even the evidences is suspect. Zero thing about this paper. That's currently under review that spend the thing that's been cited for the justification was looking at facts scenes that haven't been approved in the. U S, it was a study didn't include Pfizer Madeira, the ones that the majority of Americans are using, so the Singapore, the study in Singapore right, I believe, yeah Yet in the arising, where you're right, it's an receiving for overseas study using vaccines that you're, not taking to argue that we should all mass, again. I mean you started you could. This is where we ve said this many times, but this
The conspiracy theory start to look a little less crazy or had taken in which follow you follow the rather done the hole in it did and sat. There are aspects of truth there in terms of how the CDC and by demonstrations is talking to Americans about what they should be doing to protect themselves. I think that there, if you want to give them every benefit of the doubt and try to sort through what caused this action and why there so confused in the response. You get to some very troubling possibilities and the troubling possibilities are the hour. I go to their terrified their terrified that the delta variant is so.
Contagious and it gets in the nose before your immune system can attack right. That's that what apparently multiplies in the nose and Paul off at the great it s a man who is responsible for saving more children's lives and practically- hey Buddy, alive, pull off of the university Pennsylvania says, look, here's the vaccine, you're, like they're like having a fire extinguisher in your kitchen. The far singers your kitchen and then, if something happens, you pull it off the wall and new spritz the fire and it puts it out, but that doesn't mean that it The the fire there may be a fire and you may have to use the fire extinguisher, they'll be a fire first. So if there's a fire first, the question is how quickly how fast the spread can happen before your immune system kicks in and puts it out in your body, and this this, apparently, is the fear. The fear is that
There is this period of time before your immune system kills off that you can shed on other peep. Okay. So that's a very, I think, that's a very common sensible, understanding of why prudence would say start going back to mitigation strategies. But the data are not there. Yet that showed us. That's what Christina saying so. Their beings more safe than our because that's where they are, they want to say we are are doing everything we can to protect you, but they don't. The way the opportunity cost of a public being told to mask up again and they they are presuming that every other prior that they want us to accept and that
you have been condition to accept remains in place. Primarily, you need to go get vaccinated, because if you start spreading the story that the delta that the Delta variant is making. The vaccines a little bit ineffectual, at least in this weird period of time. Back scene, has it enter the people who are so we're gonna go out what the hell away? Well, what the hell is it good for so they they. They have a vested interest in not being clear, because if they are candid, they start raising questions that I want to raise, and you know why This is a problem because they haven't been candid from the get go and if they had been candid from the beginning and said, look you might be better off masking.
But we can't afford to have you mask because we don't have enough masts in America and we need them for healthcare workers instead of saying then an adult mask, you don't need to mask masking socks when you want to ask for and then they switch it around. So then you are people in this state of total cognitive dissonance. If Basque is good, why did they tell me it was bad to begin with the? What are they not? What are they not now do they believe now that masking is good or do they not? How can I trust them, and there is a very good piece and slate by I dont. That's the phrase I often used by Carrington Powell invent a precise than apricot is one of the most interesting common, sensible people writes about covered and he talks it's a piece about the noble lie and in the day sure of the noble lie, the noble life course being the thing that you tell people, because you a few figures I can't handle
The truth and the lie is intended to have a very good result. So it's therefore noble and this is the question about FAO Cheese, saying you now- here's what he hears hurt anyone it brings up right now, but he said right. The noble lie in December when he said to Donald Macneil quote when pulse and only half Americans would take a vaccine, I would say her Demille would takes having some five percent then, when newer survey said sixty percent or more would take it, I thought I can launch this up a bit. So I went to eighty eighty five and this is what what them, Alan preside, say in his own words, fetching nudged. His target rates were heard. Immunity to promote vaccine uptake even though his comments were made to influence public actions to get more people vaccinated, a noble effort, the central delay more remains. Do we want public health officials to report, facts and uncertainties transparently, or do we
want them to shape information via nudges to influence the public to take specific action for her fosters an open and honest dialogue with the public to facilitate democratic policy making. The second subverts the very idea of a democracy and applies it. Those who set the wheels are shaped. A millionaire active are justified in depriving the public of information that they may consider or value differently, and here's the in my mind the most important point aside from whether its rights to tell noble lies in the service of eliciting socially beneficial behaviour, there is also the question of efficacy. Experts on infectious diseases are not necessarily experts on social behaviour, even if we accept vouches claim that he downplay the importance of mask, is even one when we should run on mass. We might wonder how he knew that his although I would be more effective than simply being honest- and that is the key here- there is a lot of manipulation of human behaviour going on
I thought you buy were shovel linsky by these. We, aside from the quest whether or not this is inappropriate behaviour for employ for our employees to lie to us. What the hell do? You know, here's the deal peace and very reluctant. To give liberal then use credit for taking a conservative observation that we ve been set. For months, I wrote that peace in February yeah it could have been, a long time ago, but you couldn't say it within a time frame. That would give conservatives credit for that. Croatia, because that would involve a lot and its really annoying. I mean well guess what slate welcome to the party pow we here. While I mean some years are very precise- has been there there publishing it, but he he has. He has. Been there he's a doctor is talking about a very wrong. I know I know I know Nevertheless, here's a new Goldman Sachs estimates that aid the delta variant be the return of mitigation measures is
we too slowly economic recovery. This morning we got cue to GDP numbers expected eight point: four percent growth. We got six point five. Oh my god really got his right, yeah, no job, no John, so guess what infrastructure spending covered mitigation measures. All this conflicts with the prime directive of a first term presidency, which is to get the economy going, get this existential conflict for the vital infrastructure monies he's gonna, be regretted that tweet did when he was a candidate, I'm not going to shut down the economy and not going to shut down. This is that I'm going to shut down the virus like that, keeps being brought up and should be constantly until he is that until sweat. Throughout now in twenty twenty four, I will say that the noble lie part and the reason the people react, the way they have to this. It's not just you know. Conservative sceptics on social media do tearing apart,
fancying etc, etc. There is only one area in life where we tend to accept the legitimacy of noble lie and that's with children. So when the noble lie is proffered by one's government to its citizens, it is in effect treating us his children and people do not like that. People don't like that. Even people who behave childishly do not want to be treated like children by their government or people do like it. There are people who do like it. The ethical candidates will item of the put the progressives them selves. Why get they like it for others, but we ve heard the adults and write the children right, but I think part of this is right. So then the noble lie in this case is an you should mask up. That is now The noble lie, the known, as I say, I think the danger here. That is going on is that is that all
are we here is the vaccines? Are the vaccines are fantastic? This is the greatest thing ever. The vaccines are great, the vaccines are great and they are an, but you know they're, not they dig don't you're not going to eradicate covert right. That's this is something we keep that they're not gonna eradicate covered, and there may be ways in which the in which covert eludes the vaccine, rather than not that it not that it will make the vaccine, in effect, but it can alluded in various ways. It sustainable alluded, eluded in very small ways eludes it. You know at a percentage. Number under you know under one one hundred seven percent and therefore that's bad, because people will get sick from it. But again are you if you start talking this through and pet making people panic
but the delta variant. You are going to damage the public case for the people who have not yet been vaccinated. Getting the vaccine because you're saying a you already don't want to get it beat. We don't know how effective it is. You could get, it could be one and it could be five percent you'll get. If you get vaccinate, you could still get it. Five percent is incredibly small percentage right. I mean it's it's. It's really notes. Ninety five percent you're not gonna, get it, but if your vaccine hesitate, you know our what what good is it, and so they are making this public case and they are undermining the more important public health
like. Why isn't the noble lie to downplay the delta variant? How about that? Let's go there, they love the noble lie. Don't talk about the delta very like it's a crisis. Tell everybody have meetings, have Biden, bring journalists into meetings and say stop counting case numbers. It is not helpful to have this, case number count in the paper every day, because it's not measuring anything. The only people, we're getting tested are people who are already showing symptoms of being sick, so the poorest numbers. Don't make any sense. If everybody in the country tested every day, it wouldn't be a three or four percent positive test rate. It would be a point four, percent positive test. Rape and everybody would stop panicking or you know whoever's Pannikin would stop panicking, but they're not doing that. They're, not saying you're, not being helpful. Dare not saying this is a bad way to measure their saying everything
ever all forms of measurement of good. All forms of panic are good and all forms of rational com written out risk assessment, r, r, r bad kind of like. Where is the risk assessment that says, even if it's a five percent chance that you'll get cold it that's, actually that's actually approved, that's more than that affable risks taken life, even though its not five percent. It's like point o o three percent. While in that's a big deal since then he has. I guess I point out that three percent- they matter things that are at risk. Here in your life. In our day to day life then contracting a breakthrough case of covered much less one little hospital, as you are in innumerable, but they're, not even talking about hospitalized. You are talking about
You get a breakthrough case and then you are the second hand: smart, your things. Somebody else sick. You got vaccinated. You have a negative the real chance of getting a breakthrough infection and then the people who are around you. Whatever negligible chance of getting cold because at the worst, even if it's a very infectious strain at the worst levels at which covered reached in the last year and a half, the infection rate was like for four and a half percent. So you have a five percent, dance in the people around you of a four percent check. Let let's, if you do the regression analysis you have. If you dont, have a five percent chance, your went over three percent chance and then You have a point all one percent chance of what you get. Somebody else and the end
our country has to change its behaviour. Why is that no belie better them and then, if you believe that to dangerous. Why is that? A better noble lie than protecting the reputation of the vaccine if what you really needed to get everybody vaccinated, I give notice in it's interesting to see the private companies, including the Washington Post Alphabetic, which is Google, Facebook and others are going to require their employer. Is proof, provide proof of vaccination and there's not a day in a week, way through their kind of going around the rhetoric and incompetence of of the federal. Governments messaging on this just saying: ok, they look at the economic data. They look at the fact that they need men, most of their were forced to return to an office they can get stuff done so they're gonna mandate this and that's fine, but it, but I think it's it provide such an interesting.
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shift gears crazily and go to serve ass, a an interesting. What was I going to say an interesting cultural, scullery that I made last night a movie I haven't seen thirty years thy ended up. Watching on Amazon, Prime and then I was kind of staggered by because it shows its sixty years old, so chose. It said remember when I was a kid and I was going to lie. I saw Patten when I was ten. Sixty years earlier than that was one thousand nine hundred and eleven like what I saw Jaws in nineteen. Seventy five sixty years before, that was birth of a nation. So, like we're talkin about sixty years, so it's not it's it's a very long time, but the movie is blue Hawaiian with Elvis it's one of its one of the
Hi budget Elvis movies at some point after Viva LAS Vegas you just made like until he was making unbelievable junk kisser contemptible serve made contemptuously as cheap. As possible to garner as much money as possible for Ellison, Colonel Parker, This was made on location in Hawaii and Elvis comes back from the army, so reflect the real life. Is a veteran comes back from the army. His parents run like the dull food company and he is beach. Bum surfer Nes want to go see his parents cuz they're, going to insist that he go work for the fruit company and he wants to live a hawaiian lifestyle, and this movie. The presumptions in this movie, are just staggering and. The most staggering personal is that annual lens bury plays Elvis's mother and she was only ten years older than Elvis, but she placed Elvis's mother,
by the way lands where this is like. I think the same year that she was the mentoring candidate, where she also simply Lawrence Harvey's mother, also like she was like, Seven years, although the Lord's Harvey anyway, the thing is in that movie: she is a brilliant monster. You now one of the great villain performance has ever made ever done, where she's in of the north korean halogens agent, who actually is hearse her brow washed sons controller astonishing performance, astonishing movie in this she's celebrity Javert southern woman, who you know like once roller sons, life- and he just wants to be a tour guide in Hawaii- My third point is that like in this movie, like going around talking like this and she's, got this husband. She calls daddy and every based so they rolling their eyes at her character and that at some point after she says something, you know silly her husband says Sarah Lee there are times I could read-
you're a fool neck and then the music goes. Did you do to do. Like always that hilarious he wants to, like, you know, beat up his life. Could she so stupid and then there's the rub? The house that the House boy in Hawaii, is a japanese guy. They called ping pong and all Elvis's, hawaiian friends, do nothing but role rounded long, canoes, singing a low high e, while they're playing ukulele is nineteen sixty one like it, it's it's, it's it's racist it sexist. It's like you could see where women's. Why lit women's Lib happened, and I just I have this experience like watching- were listening to stuff like rat pact,
Therefore, you can't believe the way they talked about women. You can't believe massage any was actually a thing here. It was. It was a defining and dominating characteristic, and even I've talked about this- that in in the high born the phone literature of the day, Mailer Updike, Bello Roth, the Messiah Jimmy, is just sort of the points like You know Bob Bello who might who's running. I love basically guy angry every novel came out of his rage at some wife or other who is depicted in this horrible way. You know up dykes, you out Thanks women are murderous which she they kill their children. You know they drive. When their children by mistake as their drunk mailer. You know, mailer, writes about the reverse, fine qualities of killing your wife and an american dream like this is a real fit that this was the cultural
Face it serve like this moment where you know at we. A lot of us complain about you know the grass of assumptions of our time in the horrible. You know acceptance of these rules changing a rules denying things On the other hand like there was a lot bad though there was lot weird and bad about the way the culture talked about itself or popular culture document about itself, then something ukulele couldn't hi right, that's the, although I must say, I think that the the the extreme on the progressive side now is is in some ways: allows them not to see the through line there. There is still plenty of massage monistic lyrics and say: oh
music, where women are never called anything, but something that begins with the bureaucracy. Yet did there's there's plenty of casual cultural sovereignty that still occurs but weak. We choose not to see it in certain venues where identity politics has overtaken the framework when discussing it Bob. None of that. I am certain that, sixty years from now someone will look at like in the entertainment artifacts of today and say well, like the then, the twenty twenties we that was a weird time. You may, like everyone's hogwash you know you know every conversational aside, is about the awfulness of of of the ones razor or country but they have no S book is a guide books right.
Knows forthcoming book. That is undoubtedly at its on me. I know that, as he was a the world jangling. It's it's a tough time time in the life of any writer. That's right! Thoughts go out so good where everyone sending it good thoughts on thoughts and prayers. On the other it yeah annexed eyes now, you're welcome and butter We will by the waves aid before we go, I'm still I'm reeling at this sad gdp. Number six point: four percent mean another almost every year and will not get anywhere remote area close to what we anticipated. Should be. This should be taken as a screening, red siren warning crisis impending this and his White House, I dont know if there are to see it because the grammar all late so much. There are quick to see it there because,
three months ago there were projections that this quarter would be a double digit quarter. Double digit, like twelve per but that was that, with an annual eyes rate by the weather, the quarterly rate was one point six, I believe what my anywise royal right, so we ve got three guessing as that's annualized anyway. Anyway, it's it's it's it's a staggering like every presumption that, Everybody has been making assumes a level by the way, the ideas that growth was, could explode, and level off like next year, because your cause you're getting back to normal right? This is that they have this explosive growth to get the economy back to the size it was before the pandemic. And that's the normal that would be the equilibrium and then level off well, maybe at a level often we're gonna be at a lower price point than we were a lower. You know
or general overall size of the economy than we were and then then were really reaping the whirlwind, because then you get these counter pressures which are going to do so. To stimulate the actual economy, the private sector, which is you know how stimulates private sector right tax cuts, capital gains, tax cuts also stuff like that or we ve got to continue these direct governments of inventions to families and children all this forever and Oh you're gonna have this giant. This fight is just gonna keep going on and on and on. What's the point of the stimulative effort in but to spur private, economic activity, consumer spending partly drove this, but government spending was the rest and if that's not stimulating the economy than you can spend all
trillions, you want it's, not the spending. That's the problem here is that the amount of spending as a problem here the problem here- an endless intuitive her, but the problem is the virus and everything associated with it. And again there talking down there trying to create this permanent condition. All these things can last the can't go by the way, not necessarily what we say about the what we say about the stimulus money right you you, you tell you up right words: five five trillion Four point: seven: ok, formerly ever he pulled total pandemic relief efforts runs twenty twenty read. What do we say about that? Because a lot of those done through borrowing right FED is propping up things with borrowing
that classic rule is public investment, crowds out private investment, competition for resources and the federal government spending is inefficient way to create economic growth. It's a sugar high, it doesn't have any Hence it doesn't. It has immediate benefits. It does not have long term ancillary benefits in terms of creating the things that make jobs and make things run, and maybe this is the evidence for that enough of a economists to really diagnosed that. But I soon we're gonna hear about this from our friend David Bonds and at others. It's not a day that we have a David Monson read, but I I'll just say that I will be one. Sing what he has to say about this today and with that we will call it,
so these proceedings, and we will be back tomorrow without Christine. Without Christine. She looked at me with a smile she's, getting a well deserved day off. So we will labour on what I've heard, but for Christine and no enable John put words, kids get more,
Transcript generated on 2021-07-30.