« Commentary Magazine Podcast

Punch Drunk and Reeling

2020-04-22 | 🔗
As the nation descends further into a passionate debate over how to balance public health with the needs of a functional society, the intractable conflicts between these two outlooks collide and manifest in bad-faith attacks on each side’s capacity for empathy and compassion. Can the country find an equilibrium between these two valid but competing interests?
This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
what the Commentary Magazine Daily Podcast today's Wednesday April twenty second, twenty twenty, I'm John onwards, the editor of commentary with me, as always senior editor, a green walled, hello wave John. Senor writer Christine rose high, Christine back after after the partial installation of her a lot of either yes, yes, hello, I have hot water again. So I am very happy person Raina regulations and us Socio nor Rossman high- now I have so
I had this idea in my head this morning. Waking up there. I felt a little like a beaver in a trap, and I would gladly like nor off my limb to get out of the trap, but there is no trap Dark Thought, but none the less interesting phenomena that you know. If you have, if you, if you some entertain fantasies of like escape, you know, I can't take this any more. I got there's is nowhere to go. I mean that's the interesting aspect of That's like there is nowhere to go. It's a global problem and so there's really not much, you can do except lived through it and which language sacrifice that's a good question. I would, I guess, in theory, I would sacrifice my my right-
You ve done a lot of thinking about no, no, not like bright Arthur. I mean it. Roger, had the remnants you immediately launched into thinking about which we extension you getting amputate in the still navigate your environment. I mean ending its an improper, I'm trying not to say now that I wouldn't you know, try I'm trying to go along with that. I'm trying to underestimate the possible you need your possible thumbs selling. Ok, let the Lego at the Lego, not real you have perhaps to this broadcast Ok, what that is well, you see B is closing so that operates. Citizens were Gabriel, the EAST central comedy training ground in New York City announced yesterday that it was based closing its doors, forever due to the virus which so interesting. Bits of data overnight the New York Times, reports that Santa Clara County
think it's our clerk had. He indicates that day day now believe that the first death from the virus came in there anti on February Sixth, which would be three. We, earlier than the supposedly first recorded death and that too people who got it around this time in Santa Clara County had not travelled. Which would then indicate that they would have have had to have gotten it from somebody in their vicinity. I would suggest that the virus was present in in northern California, earlier than anybody thought, which of course is part of the anecdotal thing more people than going through that you now maybe a whole lot of people had this in January or earlier what seemed to be an uncommonly sick moment for a lot of people.
Around than just after the Christmas holidays of this is the first can a bit of evidence to suggest that it was a rather than it wasn't just something that came out of China in early January? that it might have an earlier and of course, we again are operating on the basis of two here, mobile prior information, because the Chinese have decided to stone wall and and make it impossible for us to understand where were in how so that their one interesting piece day and then then you them have this sum. Highly controversial thing going on where people are saying where apparently a large studies suggests that hydrochloric queen doesn't work, and is actually killing people. But then it turns out that that's a bad.
That's a ages didn't have the kind of best clinical practice is that these people, who have been saying we need best medical practices before we make an assumption about this drug Dragonettes dance, new application has because the second I got a study that they like they jumped all over it, which is pretty got a study that they, like they jumped all over it, which is cisely what they ve been criticising trump and everybody else. Who wants this drug to work for this application? The this threatens drives me nuts. I dont know how to read this data because I'm not a clinician, but I know people who know how to read the data read the data. If that makes any sense and all of them have been saying, look good studies, same pile with bad studies. It's all data. Until we have a representative sample, you can draw a conclusion on it, but everybody wants to draw a conclusion and the The conclusion you should hope to draw is a full one right, not ill desperately pessimistic obviously politically motivated one ok. So
this. Would this is a major? The study is of almost three hundred and seventy, veterans, hospital patients, and so, but literally not peer reviewed as yet at that, as a result, you know one of the purposes of peer review is, ensure that there aren't math errors or that you know someone has Meda. Literally someone has made the spreadsheet an reverse to numbers or something like that, which seems to happen with extraordinary regularity. Some of these cases, which you can understand if your me and you don't even now- understand how to do a spreadsheet. So, way, and then we have the reopening controversies going on everywhere we talk about yesterday, but as as no one noted last night to Us
we do have evident the first democratic governor who is now moving from a shell for at home to safer at home standard, meaning I have to stay home. Safer to be home, but will let some stuff open up in Colorado? That's Jared Polis and so we now don't have the it's, not the only circles, dance in which its not only Republicans. Now who are saying we you don't need to reopen us as as soon as possible, which is also good, because while the last thing that should become a political football, the question of whether or not the economy should be allowed to somehow kick start and that people who are suffering
could be allowed not only to buy Procureur services that they meet but to provide services that other people need and that where that's where we are today. Sally I'm now that I just happened to be trying to make tv do something, and it was on CNN for awhile last night I was watching now, while I was trying to make me Eddie do something more entertaining the interim, while it was on Anderson Cooper, was interviewing a of experts and Georgia Locals- and you can imagine the tone of the conversation around what Georgia was doing, opening up and then one hairdresser on proprietor of Asia, the hair salon, who was
Very nobly sang I will never reopen my facility not under these conditions, even if it means essentially economic suicide for myself and she was properly fetid furred this sacrificial statement, but in our kind of betrayal do the nature of this thing. I don't think it's getting a lot of press which is all of this is voluntary, no one, putting gun to your head head insane, reopen your store, no one is putting a gun to your head. Entangle patronize, your local facility. These are all voluntary actions that everybody can, in fact closing voluntary when it occurred for the most part, because the states lag behind the individuals who just stop going on businesses that shuddered and this the coming now an individual decision on the local level too, with the capacity of the state to just pull back a little bit in places that are doing so, I am very curious to see how the media narrative changes of it.
Just at all, as Democrat led States- begin to engage in this too, because right now that the tone associated with reopening this is basically a hundred percent. Also on the largest Emmi. That's that's the thing that that the Colorado decision strikes me as being It had a nice grown up tone, which was to say we understand that you're gonna have to make these decisions as an adult. You're gonna have to assess your own risk. You're gonna have to assess, if you have some one who is, if you have some one high risk in your home, obviously make a different choice than someone who doesn't have someone high risk at home or who has already been exposed to the virus that such it. It was the way, I think alike, of people wanting to hear trump behaving illegal com or a little like kind of giving people the benefit of the doubt. The problem they didn't know, is absolutely right. You if you watch any sort of cable news for more than ten minutes, and the tone is basically what we ve been slightly mocking, but is genuine, is you know, you're killing people? If you, if you're a governor who reopens his beaches and people are walking up and down the beach
six feet apart. You are a murderer and that's unhelpful and it's gonna be its becoming almost satirical at this point, because we do have to constantly be thinking about how, week by week, what can open what what say, clothes, what safe, what's not and that tone is completely unhelpful for that. A member think the media tone will change as if and when, What democratic governors were? Don't cry? Governors decide to experiment with opening up, we sought difference in you know Trump was the lad, was not allowed to say things that Cuomo with them celebrated for saying you know later, whether it had to do with hydrochloric win or even the idea of gradually reopening you know, probably trumps edit. It was because he was used either he was putting the economy before lives of commerce.
Said, it was to give the new Yorkers hope. Right, well, you know, I mean, aside from the whole question of whether or not the meteorologist you know serving as a democratic, and it was this or democratic shells there is the phenomenon of Alarm Ism health, alarm, ism and environmental alarm ism, and all of that being a species of if it bleeds it leads. You know this is how news is made and pushing emotional buttons I also appeal people who make the news we who write the news, r, r, r human beings, just like anybody else with the same, emotional motivators that other people have and if they tend to be uncommonly more anxious about this stuff that will then be conveyed in the in the way they they poor. That answer
You know it is not necessarily a kind of o transect. So we have to stop him it. It has also the quality of making sure that Nobody accuses them being insufficiently concerned about the well Being of the people that their writing about and the people that they are reporting to Well, there is concern for the state of paralysis. Too. I mean back to the salon owner. She was sure practical concern was I don't I don't know how I am able to Santa My environment, I dont know how I can I can get don that the chair that you're sitting in was infected. Then I can disinfected properly ahead of the next person and that's a are valid consideration. Totally you ain't grime, it's gonna be about
consideration for months from now, eight months from now twelve months from now, you're, never going to devote any consideration to this. Are you just going to close, because that is the that's the Joyce before you at a certain you do have to figure this out or shutter on and especially better to figure it out now, when the long for a lot of places is happening right. The peak his past people are trying to kind of assessed the situation because they haven't the CDC said I think yesterday there is the possibility. We ve talked about this of the of the virus returning in the in the fall in the winter, but that will coincide with the regular flew season as well. So the idea that you want to have in place procedures and practices that you ve tried out in and kind of gotten PETE. Both your customers use you and your staff used to implementing is now is the time for that. I would think because if we do get a second spike which were expecting in the fall in the winter will be more prepare.
Hopefully we will be able to do more efficiently respond to that's bike than we were when we were first experiencing is and Congress long and do something about toward and liability. In order for these businesses, to reopen even Nancy Policy, has said as much which suggest that governments no the problem finally brought. I did not interrupt you, I'm sorry I'll, stop, making ice cream no, but I'm in the the awning I'd say about this is is, is yeah so this may be the best time and how is she ever gonna reopen them? The woman who was on CNN with the tariffs lawn and maybe she won't like- maybe she can't maybe this- has awakened in her a a, fear and revulsion. You know to providing this kind of hands on service that will require her to find something else to do with her life and that something that may be
happening in all kinds of industries are in all kinds of businesses and all kinds of service businesses and their nothing to be done about that like theirs, and that you know there's no, there will be no way too solve the fears of people like At who are the service providers or the fears of people who. Receive the service if this is something that pushes a very specific button. Like don't touch me, I can't have any one touch me: then, how are you ever gonna get your hair done? I mean you know, how are you ever going to help I thought you were a year now law ministers, vaccine right. Ok, the people John describing were and are not going to engage in any voluntary activities. For a long time. But that there's a whole letter subset of people, for whom those concerns do not. Preclude engaging in their environments, vulnerable,
I'm saying is that there is that there are those people, and then there are other people who are like no I'll give fine whatever and then the question is: can the economy will will that whatever number of people who are going to do. Pull themselves away from the service economy right the purse interaction, economy, how many of them will there be and will will that be the margin between you know having fully functioning growing economy and an economy that is permanently were set. Stored depressed and there's just no way of knowing that by the way, even if this goes on months and months and months, and then there's a vaccine. The
knowledge that will be burned into everybody's consciousness, about the danger of new strand, new strains of corona virus in the animal born this and the other thing will not go away in others. Why question about whether or not everyone's gonna shake anybody's had ever again org you know, will there be hung in our? We all gonna turn into you know sir. We all follow asian social compartment and do a lot of distance socializing out the goat Boeing and without physical contacts at all that, because it will not I'll, be seen as a kind of comments. Every year. You won't really know whether or not the season where, when things turn whether something terrible is getting come out of somewhere and get everybody sick and You know again if ten
percent of the people in the United States have that feeling who did not have that feeling before. That is an enormous slam on the economy, like that. Ten percent is the margin between success and you know, and and just like hard scrabble survival existence- A huge part of it is always gonna be seniors. I mean they're, always gonna, be a part of whatever per cent budget, is who, fears engaging in. You know that the public if they be the business of american life, like that. I guess, although we are, this does seem to be a particularly for protein. Killer thing with the seniors. With this. Disease. Right, I mean at the
and the fact that it doesn't that it is is a uniquely on fatal, and you know we're not not all that dangerous to children is looking new is a kind of new thing. Is ordinarily in pandemics. Children arm, you know deemed, did not have sufficient immunities built up and that they can just be moved down and that, for some reason, is not happening here. Thank God. So, Let's move on to the thing that we are talking about amongst ourselves last night, which is this some scheme. And all controversy involving the lieutenant governor of Texas Dan. Patrick who was a professional controversialists. He said yes very, like you now, with only have five hundred deaths here in Texas we gotta reopen.
And look. I want to live forever and everybody should want to live for and all that, but there are more important things than living in. One of them is getting the economy going. So this is now turning into a major controversy. What's wrong with this guy he's, crazy. You know he's saying you know you shouldn't, you should die for the economy. Are you guys are more. I I am a warrant for by what he said, but I want you guys to kind of make the case for the the the the larger point that that damned Patrick was was making I think that an ugly jointly devils havoc I mean we all agree that the way he chose to say that was kind of appalling particularly at this moment in time, but the larger point he was making, I think, was about right
tolerance among people and and in a way, was kind of heartening to hear someone say hey, you know we have to their trade offs I'm posted if there's going to be a trade off. If we reopen there's going to be a trade off, if we don't reopen- and I certainly wouldn't put it the way he said it, but one of the things we were talking about was there's this idea. What he was pointing out was there so long been the side ever as modern folks that we have a lot of control over their own lives and that we can make them more convenient, inefficient and and it's amazing we can do, we ve come so far his remarks in some way. You were wrong.
Anger that actually this is a fairly recent time in human history, when we have that amount of control and what the pandemic has done is shown us. How much of that sense of control is in fact illusory. So what he in a sense was saying was: let cease back at least some of the control that we we can exercise, which is to keep going about our business and trying to read things up again. I e that calculation, though, is stark. Is he made it right? I mean there will be people who will become sick and possibly die if we reopen too soon, but that, but what he saying is we ve got a now balance that against you, no kind of term health and the people who will become either depressed or anxious or suicidal if they no longer have a way to make a living in and cancer. I I mean society as an organic organism, should they self preservation instinct, is society, It does not have a self preservation. Instinct is a deeply sick, possibly fatally civic society
it should be. It should be part of something that policy makers consider when balance The preservation of life with ensuring that that life can self perpetuate. Oh that's a variant states asses is, it is suicidal right, but what we do, nor have they will just that I mean I I I I agree, but in this case the bill preservation, instinct up of society is at odds with your personal survival instinct. So though, these that's that's a prick heavy match up. So it's not it's not exactly. You can't say it's pathological if people are sure of I will not now harder than on their personal part of the biggest problem with that is that these are two. Come entirely valid, competing interests that are seeking equilibrium
neither side of this equation are willing to concede the legitimacy of the others legally valid consideration and what they choose to see is apparent concern in this moment. Right, well. You know so Patrick said. You know we're crushing the economy. You know there are more important things in living that saving this country for my children, grandchildren and saving this country from all of us. He said now, as I say, he's a professional controversialists. There's a hiss. We have him saying things that you know land him in trouble in Texas, but in other response of the Texas Democratic Party, is so spectacular Lee vulgar that It deserves also to be it as well. Does this is how the text at the statement of the Texas Democratic Party they would, see our family members die to bail out Wall Street. The lives Families are friends, and our communities have no dollar amount. Texas report,
Things can no longer claim to be the pro Life party anymore. Now that is in saying right. I mean The notion that he's saying here in Texas get out. We need to let stores reopen, is a flaw My bailing out Wall Street now grant So this is a political. This is a political fight near destroying to score political points, in an election year, but you know this is one of those soldiers were its becomes almost impossible for anybody to have a rational com, the Asian on on any topic? If what you're gonna say is you know, you want to kill people for Goldman Sachs? Then you're, just ok, you know what we can. Even how are we gonna go on having a serious, having even remotely conversation about the situation that we limit ourselves, in my view, is we
we are willing, like a like somebody who has been punched in the face. Something's happened, Here that has never happened before in our lifetimes or in any these lifetime. We had The economy has shut itself down and nobody has a blueprint or a game plan or a prior to help us. No where to go from here and so were flying blind and we are in a world where the moment of reasonably low ebb when it comes to our publican, electoral and our public officials and the rhetoric they use and the things they say and the ideas that they hold. And so it's very hard to see a way forward out of this, without simply referring back to every
nonsense, partisan fight that we ve been having or you know, we're were, or culture war, part fight that we ve been having. You know for fifteen twenty. Thirty forty years, but some point. You now that this this this punch drunkenness, as to wear off. You know no one has been saying for ever that that this will almost happen as a I know, as a serve like I naturally occurring phenomena like people will just start working again or will start socially and I dont know then it's that simple, but The conversation is now going to freeze in place here like this, I mean you know, we're, not gonna be sitting having The same argument about this three weeks from now. I would say that we are going to be in a position where It will be much clearer what needs to be done, at least in some places, then it
is now because there will be yet we will be gathering worn, more information about the spread of the virus and all of that and its and how fatal it isn't, how dangerous it is, and what measures need to can be taken to mitigate or to make it possible for people to engage in full swing we cannot activity again, but we're not there yet and most politicians are saying you know what up there yet so you know we have to just keep keep things where they are static, where they are until we have more more information and then people in Georgia, people and if, if if, if damp hat, It is right. Five hundred people have died in a state of twenty seven million, and or for shutting the stay down, doesn't gimme any sense, because the virus does not seem to be taking hold their than five and, if the virus, if, if these things reopen- and then you know another three hundred and fifty people die
in the next month or something like that, then you know people, the Texas Democratic Party can scream and say they killed them for Wall Street, but no I accept that. But if ten thousand people die in Texas, that will be a different story was slightly and I think I think that's right and I think it shows there are a couple things that Americans, culturally, are pretty bad at work, that they have a silver linings where you were quite an impatient people as a rule, which is very good if you're an entrepreneur- and you want to kind of your go, get her. But in these situations of uncertainty, it's bad right. We want, we want. I think that's why you see so many these debates produced about the economy, people kind of retreating to their priors, as you said so, then the two big debate over the last few days that I've seen covered in the business pages is. Is it fair that you know someone who runs Ruth Christine House or a pot Belarus? How much company should they be allowed to get
hell out money, and so, of course, you can see this both ways right, a big corporation and has a better bigger cushion, etc, etc. But some of these businesses are franchise franchises right, which means it is basically a kind of they pay a franchise further, their run like a small business. They employ local people. They just happened to have the bran protection, but they pay for that. So if they can't, I think we can all agree that Harvard which has a thirty million dollar economic would not have got. Many should not have gotten in your money from the fund that we're gonna, be my cards. As is that you have presented the people, the people who think oh you're bailing out Wall Street will, above all of that in together their right about Harvard they're wrong about some of these franchise restaurant. So I think, since we're impatient and we're not good with uncertainty, these debates will are going to continue until you have a situation like Colorado or Texas, where a leader says, I'm gonna take the gamble of saying
should reopen, or I'm going to say, no, we stay close, and then I just can't wrap my head around the idea that we all seem to have convinced ourselves of that. The federal government can float the economy for and and the period of time we have a twenty trillion dollar GDP, the amount of product that we produce in these countries is intended trillions when we put five, hundred billion dollars into this fund. The other day I mean the idea that you can keep these businesses solvent for an extended Period of time- and I got a lot of them- are going to fall through the cracks and a whole lot of people are gonna being destitution very soon. If they are an already, I mean this is just one We sort of tried to convince ourselves of this obvious fallacy and I dont know what we're going to wake up to the fact that there is a vital issue that should be soon, but it's not funny billion dollars, that's like it six trillion dollars. I may let lets the bail out age or that the relief package between
rural spending and the fad is north of trillion dollars, soda it's not. So if you want to use your formula that a third of a year in theory that you can flow, the economy right. It's that's our little six trillion out of twenty trillion. The ancillary consequences of that spending down the road in terms of the government's liquidity and everything. Elsa people want government to do once. This is over there's a separate question, but if Don't do this for you now. Eighteen months, this was this. Was a pretty dramatic effort but It's gonna be chaos, it is chaos. Things are going to close that no one would have expected. You know uprights, brigades clothes forever. Although the guy's groundlings survey
Look. I think the groundwork said the groundlings have a cheaper dont. Have us don't have expensive the theatre to turn to rent to maintain I'm just saying like you know, there are all kinds of things and then there was a story. For example, at stake was a dead man. Your post about libretto dad fancies restaurant, the most the most highly esteemed restaurant New York City the guy, who runs at Eric Repair saying you know, We can reopen we're dealing with our landlord and weaken reopen. But if the rule is gonna be that I can only see the third of the number of people that I ordinarily seat I'm not going to be able to stay open very long like I can't you know I run a business,
You know, even with my landlord, giving me all kinds of breaks and everything I mean, I'm just I'll lose money on every meal and therefore I you know I can do it for a month, but I'm not gonna be able to do it for six months and if he, can't survive that nobody, can survive. I mean if a restaurant that you can't get there before this happened you couldn't get into for a month where The dishes cost you a hundred and twenty dollars for a piece of you. No fish and pork brine. You know that everybody loves if, if it can't survive at ads, the chaos is also part of the issue. Here, it's not just destitution, it is the effects of, sir, very weird. You know they're going to be weird, things are going to collapse. That but he anticipated collapsing but if the New York,
City, subway system goes into effectively goes into receivership, it it it doesn't, have the FED it can't print money, had made any more money from raising fair is because no one's riding the subway they need, after maintain it, it's got this insane. Pension dealers and same pension deals with its, good, I'm retired employees and all of that. What if we know by July the sub? System goes bankrupt. How does that float? It's a public charge, but it's not national public charges, the local public charge. I mean you know there are all kinds of weird ancillary problems that are created by this. So I say we are punished. Like we are not you know. We are not reacting to this rat. No. Normally.
And the whole is all this gets back to this I'll, get back to Patrick's point in a way because he's ways what he said, but he said clumsily, I think, is another way of saying there are things worth dying for and I don't think it's a crazy idea to suggest that one of those things is preserving our way of life, and everything we're describing here- is the sort of potentially the end of that I mean The problem is that when we we used to say there are things worth dying for. I am, I think it involved actual war and soldiers and an end. At least the end of the drafted men. You, you wouldn't listen, put your own life on the line to fight for these things, the problem now is. There is a suggestion that, while if you, if you want a sap, makes aggravates is too
to preserve our way of life. In this case Europe, you are putting people's lives at stake, who aren't with you on that mission I rather assert. Their purpose is to stay hunkered ban and back to the societal. Reservation narrative I mean that is the essential proposition of war, which is that you or preserving. Your way of life and in so far you can and sacrificing wives to do it. The premise of this is war, as we work trying to you know. Analogies said, even though its about analogy is that it has total war, is that it imperils value targets and families, as opposed to simply come hence, but will that that is a. That is a very good. I mean the point about war. Is that You have a distinct small population within larger you know, generally speaking, young men between the ages of eighteen and twenty four or something like that who,
leave and go off to fight this thing, and this is our history and What's left behind people may be forced to ration, they may be terrified they may yet invaded you know tat. We'll things may happen to them, but they are not combatants right there, there something else there in a different category there is no distinction here between a population that is affected by what's going on and the rest of the It was directly affected on a day to day basis and everybody else in the country. This is again something entirely new. And and so the notion that you know, I think some people are tempted by and Christine serve. References and we all set it at various moments in our frustration. You know that like
The people were made of heartier stock once and they understood that you know life was dangerous and things could happen and they they soldier on anyway and that well, you know, that's true, but they also didn't they didn't. Have a choice like there were how you know Now, if you got gangrene, your leg got cut off. You know there was no treatment. In other words, there were. No. You know you if you, if something happen to you just died on this way that scarlet you could die from strap throat. You know you could also. The thing that could happen. Yes, is really important. I think for the larger political and cultural debate going on to right, because when you have the choice, the choice gives you more responsibility for the effects of the choice you make. So in that sense you know we have. We ve had this long simmering we're talking about preserving our society right. So we ve had this debate going on before the pandemic hit about the kind of society we want to preserve and the role of the state in preserving that society. We know we ve had these away
not socialism about a more active federal government and if you're conservative these were these are ideas that really matter they have consequences. We ve seen them historically and there is a real challenge there when you throw a pandemic at that, I think it's not just people retreating to their prayers, but I think there are radicals on both sides who see an opportune and he to remake the society that comes out on the other side of this and those debates have to be kept front center. I think as well, if you're concerned about you know some of the values that I think is conservatives we care about, but we have choices to make at every step of the way which you didn't a hundred years ago, when you cut yourself and it got infected like you had a few options, but you didn't have a range of choices like we do now, but the choices don't make. I think people tend to think choice makes us always makes us more free, but I think there's a paradox of choice that economists,
It can actually make you more paralyzed and anxious if you have too many twice its right. Of course, everyone's choice is being inhibited one where the other, that is to say you're, you're you're, your choice to take the risk is being inhibited both by the bye, bye, bye, social bye, bye, general three quarters. People think that we should remain em on some form of locked down and the government is then doing the other twenty five percent of theirs, that that makes it almost impossible. Here, you are you're your choices limited there and then you can't just you know start up working or doing. Whatever, unless you make masks no or do some, its directly related to this war effort. And then simultaneously. You can't make a choice. Two
what I am not entirely sure what the other the other part of this is, but I mean you're, not you you're in. EL position. No one is in a position to make choices at the moment. We is what's frustrating to people like damn, damn Patrick can say. We need to reopen in Texas, but it you know it's. The same problem exists if we are providing a service in Texas in Waco that someone in Waco is gonna go to your restaurant. You're, the oil and gas if you're, West Texas, Crude Europe's entire. You know everyone's gonna be out of work and So if you're in Waco in the oil business everybody's out of work, so we open your restaurant, no one's coming to it. Reopen your you know reopen the mall, no one's going to be shopping there.
The text is not eisele, you know you can't they. Each state is not some kind of isolated thing, isolated from the whole of the country and then, of course, you have the other problem, which is that you, you can't say in a circumstance like this If there is an outbreak intact, Texas decides the people of Texas somehow decide that they're going to reopen and of theirs. I'll break there. It spreads to Oklahoma in it spreads to Alabama. It spreads to other places that are on its border, and so does taxes have the right to do that that the thing that people are saying about Georgia right, which is ok a Brian comes gonna, open the stay of Georgia or were, however, with what's gonna happen. But if you live in Florida, Panhandle that ok with you
I mean you know: maybe it is, but maybe if suddenly you get a lot sicker, because people, because the viruses dead, dancing, REM, Georgia maybe you're gonna, you know like this, it does it doesnt respect borders. I mean again I now in the now in this. You know devils advocate from from everybody's position, but I just think. All of these views are in good faith and everybody is accusing everybody else of bad faith. That's the Democratic Party of Dead Texas, the same day Patrick wants to do this, so he can kill people for Goldman Sachs and he basically saying you're, all a bunch of panty waste. Losers, who I out don't have dont, have the gumption to reopen this country at other times, was a lot better, or at least it was love more fit That's where we are as a society and we
seem to be able to rise above that very much and therefore This national conversation is gonna, be incredibly difficult, maybe it always would have been difficult. It's just that. You know the process of silencing people. You know at other times was a lot better. Or at least it was love were thick efficient, you can kind of like shut people, people shut up a lot better by the gatekeepers. In parliament we just don't have a better answer to these competing interests than federalism and localism they're. Just is no better solution, the conundrum that you have at right over the railway sector will both sides. The debate consider the other side homicidal. Rise at your choice to be literally the death of me and my family, there is no good solution that one and the only answer we ve come up with that
history? I think that can even come close to answering. That question is to make the choice as local and community based as possible. Yeah. But again, if you had, I understand what s wrong with this battle. Is not innovation begat? What that's not gonna, change and everybody's like I won't get a vaccine and eighteen months really will we be They got a stars backs in the autumn current of irish taxing the very successfully developed? Well, if you literally, I think it fair to say, if you have the entire world thinking at one thing, and one thing: only the possibilities for innovation in that category going be. And here s what we developed that we know developed. We ve developed in atomic bomb in three years from standing start big because because we put the ball, minds in the world on it. You know it up that I have sent them, sent them to New Mexico and made them think about how this will be done. And then, three years later you now, we were
debt, we decimated two cities in Japan, and I need only I just saying that the best minds of our society will come up with a therapeutics necessary to mitigate the kind of death rates that were seen from this thing. Unless we a substantial evolution or something along those lines, but there architects. I imagine we'll make this an easier choice for people, but at a certain point. Yes, this society is predicated on individual responsibility and individuals are going to have to take responsibility for their surroundings. There's no other way around it. The alternative is perpetual paralysis which people who fear our right to fear it is, it is tantamount economic suicide and the government isn't gonna come riding in a words to save you. People do have to take care of themselves.
By the way and open factually that that's the one little bit just add onto a no. I think that's the bit that I think we're seeing a lot of tension about right cause, there's a fair number of of certainly political leaders on the left and and a fair number of Americans who think that is precisely what the government should be doing and when we say you don't know this idea, that no crisis and to go to waste that that's a real thing, and I do think that it is incumbent on on us to monitor that trend on both sides of media. There exists as a mere version on the right, but I think right now, given the we ve talked about entitlements before we are gonna, be in a generation or several generational, long pickle. What it comes to the federal government spending that that setting aside the pandemic, we already had a crisis. Now we have even more of one. So I think that is really important to make sure that we do hold to account leader political leaders who who are used
this- is it as an opportunity, rather than is simply an attempt to do the best we Canada, ETA crisis point, but either way one of the things that was going to last week, I want you to respond to this, So there was this idea that you know how the projections are all wrong and the projections are were so wrong and what we did all this, because the projections were wrong and now it's possible. The projections are wrong in the other direction like with a doubling of the death rate in a week there, forty six thousand people have died, the United States from the virus the notion that unless something radically changes we're gonna start, this death toll is gonna. Stop at sixty thousand its doubled in a week if it just follow the same pace next week, without doubling, we will be over sixty thousand before May starts. The numbers are rare grand, but it is important and other deaths are lagging indicator round much comfort there, but it
as there are lagging indicator. If are lagging it. If the faction rate, if the, if the Actually, rape is slowing down as well, which we don't know that it is an we don't have any abuse. But he took a more learning more about had a key people off ventilators, but we still don't know, I'm just saying like well. We do know locally me because having gonna watch the numbers free in New York We know that as the deaths rise we ve seen the hospitalizations and the icy rose far I saw we can only hope that that translate on a national level as well right but ripen on on, saying is that that that is subject to data, they revision.
We had the worst day death day of the entire cycle in New York on Monday. Sunday or such like seven heard, may people died yesterday, four hundred and fifty people died and by the way this doesn't mean that you know it that is why fifty that's two hundred than its ten and then it's over it's gonna, be like four hundred and Fifty people dying every day of this one thing and that's flattening the curve. That's that's good news, but that doesn't that that will still you add that up there three thousand people in a week in New York alone and song. Just saying that I mean that's another thing about the flattening the curve thing that I don't think people really fully internalized it was gonna Big parabolic arc versus a smaller wider parabolic arc the same number of people who get this disease
spread out over a very large period of time, so that more time for therapeutics in the hospital dont go. We all know that right. We know that part, but nobody internalize the fact that you still get it a whole lot of people are gonna, get it just over long. So I'm just that. Even if the, even if. Almost two million people have the virus in the United States. If the. If the Mortality rate is point five. They have it now. That means another. Fifty thousand, people are gonna, die. Babies hundred thousand people are gonna die from this disease, and if that is the case, then this entire argument that we started with weeks ago, that we overreacted too, it is gonna, be a problem well, but I think I think it's the than that. To put it crudely, but I think the debts are sort of front loaded, because the the more that the more fragile
among us are now have been protecting themselves, from this rumour weeks. Now. So I was so. I don't think it's gonna be Patrick through picture of debts I agree, but it is still the case that we have no idea how in fact, you know, I mean. Yeah I mean- maybe California, having somehow nip this in the bud. Is the model for the rest of the country yet somehow it's all gonna radically slow down, but if a million people have it and and the mortality rate isn't point one percent. Ten the thousands more people are going to die on top of the forties Forty seven thousand people who have already died and, as say, part of what we were kind of hoping for in our own way was that the
University of Washington numbers were wrong now, obviously, the two billion was wrong, but a hundred thousand or a hundred and twenty five that is is will will be the retroactive justification for a lot of this and Will of the people who say, we need to remain locked down more power to their argument. If, if the death toll, radically slow the death toll doesn't radically slow down and it hasn't radically slow down in New York, yet What you know it's not growing exponentially bet it hasn't. It has flattened that doesn't mean it's gone. And so I don't know- I mean we ve been, and we ve been radically distancing socially distancing for a month now, our five weeks or something and it's imperative that time has almost been cut in half. I mean it will, which, which tall as I see it the four hundreds, and it was it was
closer, we ate her, but it was eight hundred two days ago, where three days ago, it was at that was after it had been down in the five hundred. Like I don't know, look what do I know, I'm not an epidemiologist, I'm the same as everybody else. I'm just saying that long range. We mean to get this car CANA going again depends in part on very good news, like it cannot happen that we're going to say you know what this is just terrible in the economy is dying and everybody's dying anyway, so we better just give it a shot eva. And Patrick is saying: Texas is Poland texts are not risk so we're doing this work. You know that risk
You know that the risk management, the risk levels, r, r, r, r r at whack it's too risky to tackle it, says to say then than thing to watch will be if there is then a spike in a place like Texas or Georgia, if leadership of those states, says, you know what we tried this, we see a spiral. It's you know too, to dangerous. It didn't work, we're gonna pull back again, I mean that's actually where you do want more nimble, less polarized political leadership. At these moments exactly and just according to the White House, doktor breaks or books whenever nurse Mona or it is, it is infection rates and not deaths that evening to watch because deaths lag six to eight, ex behind infection rates and hospitalization rates. And so, if you do
hospitalization rates and that's something to be really scared of him. I need to reimpose lockdown hours if you seen new, increasing desks and they justify locked on orders, we're reversing the order of causality for an operation of this work. You know I just I just conclude on an incredibly morose known. I mean it strikes me that one of psychological effects of what's going on is that if, if, if we, he loosened right, we loosen and then something happened them. We have to walk down again It will be emotionally. So unbelievably difficult I mean I'm not saying you won't happen and people will do it because they have to do it, but think. This is nerve rattling now
you does it, but I think I do think. Therefore, people will be less compliant the second time round. To be honest, I think I like I can't. I disagree, though, because I have to feel there is a fair number of people out of myself in this is a k we got through that first one. I am a little more competent in terms of what I know I need to prepare for mentally and and physically to to get through this next wave and just kind of I would so. I feel more practically an emotionally prepared, even if I've only had a week or two of you know not down and then I gotta go right back. I I actually think some people won't have that reaction. I mean. I do think that there will be more people who don't comply. I think that's true, but I will feel better prepared. We have to do the sure, but I think I think there are going to be a number of people who say I'm just not going through that again out. I can't be retried amortize by that. And there is the alternative as then you're. So we're saying the same thing, though shook his you're saying they will say I am not put it, I'm not going back into prison. I just
not gonna, do it, I'm I'm, I'm I'm making a jailbreak, but that is a response to the city. Unbelievably devastating effect. It would have to have to go back into hibernation anyway, and in the worst case scenario, is for Americans to stop trusting the guidance of public health officials, This is why the noble lie which we ve been talking about for a couple of weeks, is so incredibly dangerous if the public concludes at the swedish model, is the only way around this thing and that you can only stop this thing by depriving it of vulnerable hosts, then the herd, immunity narrative becomes something People begin to contemplate, even as public health officials are saying not on, others would completely overwhelmed the system, but we try. They're alternative. Alternative didn't work right
that's a very. These are all very interesting, and I d, and the point is that they will all happen at once. In other words, People will be devastating, go into hibernation again, people will will refuse to comply and The people will say we need to follow Sweden and then other people will say no you're, gonna Moran, and so every EU now there. A free society. There isn't necessarily at that point going to be consensus, although again have to point out that, despite all these conversations and all this fighting As an aggregate, the american people are in favour of the lock down and I know Democrats or more in favour of them Republicans. But you know what the hell with that like. That is not that. That is that, so what as it turns out. If, if you're going to have this kind of partisan divide, then it's gonna matter what the what the mass of people say and if it were
the other way around there were forty. Five percent of people say that this was something we needed to do in fifty five percent said we need to reopen even and see. Pelosi would say we have to even Mario Andrew Cuomo would say we have to reopen, because that's how things work in them in a democratic system, and there is no political cost at this moment for anybody keeping things shut down now, maybe they're, anticipating and maybe jar Paulson Karas, anticipating it anticipating it. Maybe Brian campaign, Georgia's anticipating, it may be damned Patrick, is anticipating it, but you were, going from what polling tells you, which is how people feel today today what we are talking that is not really at the form front of people's can't consciousnesses from what we can tell because we're still punched wrong. That, I think, is the ultimate fact. We're reeling from I think that we have no experience of and have no real way too.
Take in take a breath, say. Ok, where do we go forward from here, because we're still just we're still just dealing with the groups that you now the bruises that where we have suffered from this blow be congratulations. Everybody got really a better metaphor. Can we owe you off the gas sparkly unicorn or a rainbow at the ethnic? Who said? No, I agree with you. The hang over of this unstrung phase will be not ok does anybody have anything good to say that, like any day we do we tried to this yes way, you're walking? Oh god! Oh you mean like entertain,
Whatever, yet whenever I just, I just want to say that here in DC a couple of local restaurants, which had to close pretty pretty quickly right, it's all the lockdown hit more and more of them are popping back up with a retool business model and, as you know, they send other emails or they put on the Serbs, and they say: hey we're open again. Here's. What we can do here is what we won't do. You know please come patronize our restaurants and, I hope and word spreads and people are trying to get there in and support these businesses so again that that that sort of creativity in that that ability to retool, I think, is something that doesn't get discuss enough and I dont know if long term it still sustainable business model for these places, but it, but it's a little glimmer of hope in terms of some return to normal, see. Ok, I'm just gonna, say one thing so Ozark. Otherwise, popular show on Netflix aside from Tiger kings, Ozark is back receives and three, I,
season. One night, I didn't really like it very much incited watch these into so that my wife's started watching it. So she watched season one I said: ok, I'll watch these influences and through you, when I really didn't like season to even worse than I like season one but season three, just finish the knights of the ten ten ten episodes seas and three has a performance in it by an actor named Tom Palfrey who plays the bipolar. Brought younger brother of Laura LINEAR, led character Wendy is giving one of the great performances I have ever seen and and it is- dazzling heartbreaking, funny he's Charismatic he's: star thirty eight years old or something like that, he's MILAN soap operas and various other things. This is a break out, perform
of a sort that I haven't seen in many years. And so if you are inclined If you like Ozark, you should watch it. If you haven't watch the get, if you don't like Ozark, go, When I read up on sea, into without watching it grievance. The plot summary and then start season three. So you can see this amazing Tom Palfrey performance, John. You are right only with the about they'd. This performance which was so positively captivating that it made me put my phone down, which is extremely rare. However, it was also incredibly well written and, yes, that which is very dear what to do for somebody with such area a device like a kind of a mental illness entire show is spectacularly well written and really well done and the, except, with the really kind of obnoxious blue screen over every ship
which really is distracting and unnecessary. Otherwise, The show is a masterpiece start to finish even season to, and this is already a slump which most shows usually get did not occurring although I can, I add, acts the good of all I mean I I think I was Org is ridiculous. I have to say that I watched a watch. All three seasons, like you know, in no time flat, I agree with the performance and the and the other thing I will say about about that role, generally It's also it's worth watching, not just because it gives a dozen performance, but also because by polar mental illness is normally treated so horrifically, and, romanticized, it movies and tv. This kind of superpower and that is not how it this is handled here. So it's it's treasure refreshing. The real, I will say this that that that the show really really really, I think, stepped up its game,
in the season is as as no assets like season three. In these streaming. Series is often like is often the kiss of death and some. You have the introduction of this character and any a shift in Laura LINEAR character. You really couldn't make that much sense out of Is he couldn't understand her motivation for being part of this decision that this upper middle class? accountants family makes to serve joined the drug cartels too, you know serve like play in the world of the drug cartels. Her character just was very hard, to understand, and they just decide to kind of revise it so that she is, though, drug Lord ear of the two of them between her and her husband, and so her character, no net makes way more sense and the whole show is without em spoil our
but also lottery awoke, which is also refresh It is the this woman's ambition is not rewarded by the universe. Yes, anyway, it sets hugging principle anyway. What modern speed story? Don't ya. So that's it. I mean we're recommending those popular show in the most popular street, exorbitant. I'd like you to go out on a limb about what's right, good is like a godfather. You should really see the godfather, but another web buddy. Somebody just recommended watching the sopranos. All the way. Through again, John, I learnt I'm on better pulse. All that's I just started better calls. Also report sprayed super I'm at once and that I had never seen sopranos, I think, the last year I watched it all the way through and them don't if it holds up. And slight words. What the thing about this premises I recall is that is that,
Kind of every other episode was fantastic and then you serve lived through come mediocre episodes to get to the great episodes. But there were enough there were sufficiently in and number sufficiently great episodes that you didn't really mind. The bridging episodes. Where they were they weren't. So good there were dream sequences, which is always the hearts of all horrors end and a little too much of the therapy offices and stuff like that, but I would say it can be hard to go back to those. I think I reiterate that it's it's how OZ was incredibly greedy and ninety ninety nine, and if you go I can watch it now, it is a cartoon I I could never watch. I can't watch prison chose the thing, a mine, watch stuff about prisons, that did it triggers my cluster of my deep claustrophobia
which is also now triggered by wearing a mask, which is really great. If we're gonna have to wear mass with the rest of our lives and we have to like start taking xanax, on an hourly basis, just to go outside or whether at a van or whatever it is people take to that, doesn't totally mark them out, but them. So the prattles and Ozark goes a real ability. You know that it's really offbeat recommendations for you that we we have, but the I'll try to up with something I remember I mentioned yesterday, Miss Aluminum by M by Susanna, more few I want a memoir to read. Another thing I'll say that parents, as I said yesterday, about Phineas Infirm, I'm my son, my now yours and I are finishing. Reading A novel called Artemus foul, which is the first in a series of novels about a twelve year old supervillain
who lives in Ireland and it's pretty good eight, the writing, is really spectacle. Early good and I'm watching because Disney, two hundred million dollar movie out of it that they're just gonna put on their streaming service because they don't they figured they'll, never get it with theatre. Never again, Kenneth has has directed. So I thought you know I should read this and then maybe I can write about it. When that when the movie comes out but If you're looking for something to to distract you distract you're. You know. Ten to thirteen year old kid it's dead steam Debbie dear boys. Are they artemus foul lights ass? They did they like it, but one is down deep until ache. Dune like safe, I so well, that's how we do things by me:
Did you get to be making do their remit I'll do that without the services, but now yeah. I remember reading dune when I was like thirteen, and it was you know it's like just it likes thinking into way. You know what people adults have this experience of like reading. You know Hilary man tells novels about Thomas Cromwell, or something like that. This is doing is really like that it's like just fall. Going into way palace intrigue you no story of a remarkable depth and excitement. I thought anyway,
sell dune we're recommending to absorb the sopranos. You know what else is good at a rather than would be that way you know, what are you gonna be like the Bible? Try, the Bible absolutely anyway for a bad, Christina. No, I'm John put words, keep the camel burn.
Transcript generated on 2020-08-04.