« Commentary Magazine Podcast

Sleep No More! Election Doth Murder Sleep!

2020-11-04 | 🔗
Yes, we Commentary podcasters were up all night, like you, and so we spend some time trying to speak coherently about what happened, what is happening, and why pollsters should be put in a rocketship and fired directly at the sun. Give a listen.
This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
Welcome to day, plus, one of the Commentary Magazine Daily Podcast November forth Wednesday. Twenty twenty. The election continues. I'm John Podhoretz Words, the editor of Voluntary magazine with me. As always, a sleep deprived, no Rossman.
Sophia high. Now I got a sleep deprived Christine Rosen senior writer, I Jan and probably extremely sleep deprived often sleep deprived just as a general rule, but particularly sleep deprived today, executive Great great waldheim. I jump so ass. I got forty five minutes asleep. What about? I was like up till six and I had to get up with the kids. So what are you guys? Were you on the sleeper, I did a. I gotta get at least three and a half pushing for hours I'm going like a finer pilot amazing No, I knew you liked you liked had that you were up at like three and then you had to like do a radio thing at five hundred and thirty five,
the ass, I went to bed at around to try to stay for dropped by Mr Adam. On that day, I went to bed at random one thirty one, thirty four forty five was asleep by two point: five to do an empire had the ape. I went to sleep right after Trump and I ve been up since eight thirty, ok sandwich which, under the outward right s eyes, were you ok. So basically I'm I've got into this, because I am so exhausted that you know, gonna, blather and wrong blather and throw out bizarre theories and try to get through this. by trying to entertain. You were in our extreme exhaustion so because you guys were asleep and Miss Trump or in a mist. The reaction to trump you missed, like forty five minutes of.
Shrieking at the top of their lungs people on television about how this represents an unprecedented threat to our democracy. and how Trump saying that, as far as he is concerned, he won the election and they ere, he not not funny who they are trying to steal it from him in a representative. new low in the history of America. The World World civilization, and either I either. I am was too tired, or I just yachtsman for years, and I just don't have the abyss. Ready to generate the outrage necessary. But I totally unsurprising by what he said and actually thought that, what,
he was implying, was that the media were the ones who are denying him. The election, because there was a lotta, his his lever all had to do with how we were up, and then they stop counting and then base of counting, but then the media, would you know them away with they? call Florida and they still won't call North Carolina and Fox in the way the king game. called Arizona, and that should have called Arizona, and We were all raid have a big party if they just called the states that we need them to call, they didn't do it, and so we're not gonna, let them steal it and we're not going. Let them start counting new votes now. Here's funny part about it, which is that I think what he said in relation to the votes was perfectly kosher which, as you said, we're not going to have them like finding votes at four o clock in the morning. Meaning votes that works like you,
some house put on a pile at four o clock in the morning, when the rules, particularly in Pennsylvania, are pleased about that to be received, had to be postmarked by the day of election right that they have to have bear postmark, that says November third on them or their knock and accounts. And basically We know from all sorts of experience, not just democratic but republican experience that when you go into over time, and there are recounts and there's this and there's that as the other thing people, Whatever argument? They have to make the hand to get to them. number they want to reach, and that would incur Sorry to argue that its disenfranchises, if this envelope, which clearly was intended to be registered boat doesn't have a postmark you should set out, but that's why these remarks are incredibly irresponsible. John you're, talking about framing of events that have not happened
we haven't gotten to a recount. Yet we haven't gotten to the post Marcos, Postmark Post Election day ballots, yet we're still counting election day ballot and absentee is received before the election. which is why he use the word fraud and which is why the president's remarks lesson we're reckless and irresponsible, I'm glad you hired worry in order to them doesn't make them less reckless you're, not just saying I'm glad you have the juice to respond with a word with that anger, because Like I say I you know he's he's he's beat me down like of course, no one's ever said something like this before, except plenty, People in politics have said stuff like this will further horse. Here's one is that the people who are rending guard However, these remarks to the american public profound service in part, because they think that, from some manipulable that they'll be thrust. to the streets by the president's sub subconscious commands. Let them go and make trouble on which is again
rejection on a grand scale wrote. But it's not as though, that that's something that you know we haven't you From Democrats, for example, Fort Hillary Clinton has been the last four years calling Donald from illegitimate using the word illegitimate, rather matter it's all in the constitution. you can say whatever the hell you want, president can say whatever the heck he wants. His term ends on January. Twenty has twenty twenty one the end, it doesn't really matter what he says. Ok, everybody else got rage, outraged like that's terrible like did that work or shattering norms of the norms Irving shattered nurse worm shouldered twitter is outraged I'm asking you guys forgets whether Nada I mean I mean the platform itself that that flag. His first response, oh yeah, saying that I saying that he would be making these announcements I mean look, it was. It was an easy enough thing to avoid. You could have set a version of what Biden said, which is we think we are on track to win. That's a very different statement than they're gonna steal it from US
but we should all have outraged for dinner what we just spent months doing, which is talking about pulling numbers right. That is outrageous! I want to get to that, but I also want to say that I haven't watched Trump. If you watch straight no I've watched at enough Christine you had it. It because he worked himself up to the moment when he went into the fraud argument? The first like three or four minutes, were actually kind of funny. He was who do so great? Whenever said, we will win floor. We will move forward for by a lot in this and that and then they're not calling you know when he had this kind of It was doing his kind of sitting on the EC and the lip of the stage talking intimately to the crowd about what's going on in his head, and then there was this moment where he could have chosen, not to say their stealing the election from us, because there was a teleprompter. But God knows what was on.
Prompter, and then he decided to go. Then he decided to go for it and so there, as a kind of weird thing where it was this kind of amusing. Charming off the cuff thing that he was doing saying he was, the happy with what happened last night and annoyed with the media verbs screwing around with them, and then he just he couldn't contain at he had to go to the there there. It's a fraud and he said this ludicrous thing about how they're going right to the Supreme Court, which is not how works. You know they you, this rumours the pallid courts there actually has to have to be.
cases argued and lower courts. The Supreme Court has to answer and address bushmeat Gore, which I guess it's his president of course followed an argument by the Bush campaign that these standards, by which the Florida Supreme Court has ruled that the votes could be counted in the way that the by better by the Gore people wanted to count them were a fourteenth amendment where a denial of of due process, because they were Boats, we're gonna, be counted differently, depending on who you were and that this was illegitimate, largely by the way absentee ballots and military balance at that Therefore, there was a constitutional issue that deal directly with this that gave the Supreme Court standing to intervene, even though it was estate case and ordinarily, this estate case doesn't go, there has to be in a federal court right,
people have now been arguing this for twenty years about whether or not with us rewarded was legitimate because it was in the federal Kate the court is not getting involved in whether or not people should be counting ballots in Pennsylvania after Friday. You know I mean that that is not what the Supreme Court is gonna. Do it basically said we dont actual literally said. We don't have standing to make this argument anyway, and Maybe we will, if something happens by blob, so it has to go to court like you'd, not going right to the Supreme Court just like something he made up on the spot off off the top of his head anyway. So let's go to the polling. Who else feels like it idiot, I don't feel like a hundred per cent of, I feel, like I'm a seventy percent area, because
What are we say yesterday that its or what I think everybody agrees with me that it was a fair notion to spot the president? other points in places where there have been in the last two consecutive cycles of failure. after the entire republican vote and turns out that was wrong? You should have spotted him your points. Five, Wasn't it wasn't you philosophically wrong? It was just wrong in the market, but what we need to, because here's, why say, felicity, I don't feel like an idiot, because I thought it was possible. That Biden could win a landslide and obviously buy me. A few wins will win by the skin of his teeth. Right I mean it's got nothing to do with that. It is that I feel like for the last year, and maybe for the last four years. The date that I've been getting by which I am, and we all are. We talk about this on the park, has constantly trying to gauge how effective or ineffective what the president is saying is who who whom he is reached
with his message whom he has not reached with his message: what what's working in? What's not working How the american people feel about certain types of things, and I I'll have literally no confidence that anything that I was being told. Looking at Pauling Data reflected the It was of the american people at all, so that our presumption over the course of this year. If you were presuming at that The messages that Trump was sending out about the protests about covered about the shutdowns about the walk down about this, about that that, at how the public feels about lockdown, how the public feels about the protests. And the unrest polling organizations that said that Biden was gonna, win Wisconsin by seventeen.
What, if he wins, is gonna wanna by a point. Two were telling me that these messages, the Trump was you know, Was- was trying to get across weren't sky. working with anybody and I dont have any way to measure now, whether or not that's true. But I have no reason to believe that the idea that I was getting that the public wasn't respond hasn't been responding to Trump favourably on the way he has been talking about this why? Why should? I believe that anything that I've thought over the course of this year is true, if, if it is ballasted by the conduct If the reason the superstructure that made me think that, were these polls, that our work flabbergasted really bad, that didn't, we were missing something in this election that is still problematic. His men talk about political reporters right now, folklore importers have
I have also led voters astray in terms of how they construct narratives. With regard to trump. We saw this in twenty. Sixteen, I think it was going on to some extent in this election is well with one difference, which is that fewer of them. Actually following the candidates around placed by place because of the large because the pandemic, we actually do get as much of that potential for on there, on reporting, I'm not saying they would have done it. Is they didn't them done in the past, but there was much more an incentive to do it for the cycle and they simply couldn't So I wonder if we were over, we sort of overweighted what we were getting in terms of pulling data in part, because there is nothing, nothing too to add to it to get a bigger picture. I mean I just don't feel like we were getting. There were a few importers who were out there talking to people on the regular in very small parts of the the Raphael and giving us some good reports, but they were few and far between. So I I feel like that's when we did get the occasional I'm in
resting report you're the one by Nelly Bulls out in the Pacific, northwest about the results of the writing, the looting and the chairs, and all that that was an exception to some of the ruler. among conservatives following people closer to them on the on the ground and some of the more independent journalists. You were hearing that, but I don't think that was you're in the mainstream. We needed more of that too ballast what we were hearing about the bowling data, but this is where I, you like an idiot, because I know all that. I know about media bias. I've been talking rang about media, buys from inside the media for decades now and You know that Poland has mast. I know that there have been pulling mistakes and pulling crises, and all of this- and yet the the seduction of the numbers
The overwhelming I mean Biden was up by name in the real, clear pot in said the five thirty eight average in. Wisconsin which, if he wins a win by point to they were too I dunno Ohio o in appalling averages, Trump one Ohio by eight and a half and carefree and then prisoners Florida where the polling air appears to have been pretty much like five points, but striking, of course, because its clear that whatever they were measuring in the polling and forty was not the Florida electorate. The turn out to vote if they were measuring at all and if it wasn't all just made up because now, how do we?
That's not all made up, I'm I'm I'm come. You know like how do we know that these poles, a lot of them orange, just push polls that they are? They are created by people who in bad face because they are trying to advance a specific agenda that will confirm the prior. certain people and the press and paralyze people who bear contrary arguments, it hurts me that that that not only where the polish terrible but there were terrible in a way that summit made fun of which is set at all the mistakes were against Trump. I mean, I think, that counter argument it to your argument, John, is that this diabolical plot has backfired so spectacularly on its head. Peters that which is you know it's hard to think of any other outcome, because you can't hide the results of an election. It will be known eventually, you know what these pulls measure. Wouldn't its debts
likely different to say. You can't accurately model the electorate, but these pulse found is a profound democratic way of election, which materialised. Democrats too, An astounding numbers, but they didn't see Our railways Republicans turnout in astounding number, as you have, as it were, to competing waves in the same way that they couldn't discover the sentiments and twenty four in that lead to aid to a way of election. For Republicans that weren't measured in the polls. Okay, we know that over the course of time and pulling that there is an implicit understanding that pollster certain pollsters make make stuff up pulling firms disappear when their results are unverifiable or their falsified by you know, by serve like rats play Ludacris Swing so away from their what what they measure
and we also know that people than refer to the behaviour of pollsters in they say the closing days of the election as hurting meaning that pollsters tend to find results that are common with other pollsters at the end of an election cycle, because they don't want to see like they're out wires, which suggests that they, they cook the books. You can only heard if you're doing you no date. You know her data by ignoring some of the data are massaging it so that it comes to look like other people's data, which means that it is understood in these two followed g industry that pollsters make things up as a matter of course, yes, sir. It's like real estate, where you know whereby, if you're looking at office space or something- and it says the office basis, four thousand feet rentable
four thousand rentable square feet, and then it turns out that what that really means is its twenty five hundred square feet, but it's are understood that you're allowed to exaggerate by almost fifty percent to make it seem better. So if you will go round looking at Commercialization York, say there like quality of thirty six hundred rentals, where it and then you walk round. You say this doesn't really looking. Well, it's actually it's more like you know, that's rentals where feed so you know there's a premium, so, their industries, of which this is like a common thing like making stuff upper lying to enhance something is a is a thing that stuff Let's apparently Dunham polling as a man of course, and there is a phenomenon of something called push polling, which is that you pole not to pole but to depress but but to serve, have an effect on the result of that which your pulling either your push polling to depress the person you call
spread negative information about the candidate you're asking about by calling people and pretending to be upholstery. Did you know that, since I was a child molester? Yes it how you know, and then they could walk round, tell their neighbours. That sounds those who travel Lester. I think that they were hoping that buying was gonna, win a commanding victory and that their own priors were being confirmed by everybody else's priors, and then you know, some kind of weird collective effervescence took over. And I just I don't understand how political polling survives. What happened here I really don't like. I'm now serve like it in an image state of puzzlement about how no one
are going to write a piece for four commentaries December issue about how we should understand the results of the election, and I am not going to feel comfortable using exit pulse. I don't know that we can use the exit polls. I don't know what the conditions are in which the exit polls were taken, and I don't trust that the polling data that people are collecting have collected this year. For the past four years is real. Well, there's one thing that you can get which his weight retroactively for the outfit Electorate that showed up, so we, while exits are really weird this year in kind of hard to measure, eventually, they will be accurately waited to reflect the electorate, but thinking about
you heard about that that itself, as it is an interesting kind of fraud, so you collect data, and sometimes the exit polls show you they claim. You know they talk to ten thousand people, the exit polls, say acts, but they also said that you know carry was gonna win by ten. So then you ply the actual results to the old too, to the information that you gathered. then you massage it so that it reflects the you know what what happened That real, like I don't know, is that valid. I mean we cervix is valid values. We have no choice because we otherwise have no data to help us understand. You know what happened if we need second separate But how do we know that? That's a real like what? What scientific logic is there to the notion that you can retroactively revisit the information you gathered and tweak it.
To bring it in line with other with you now with actual results, because maybe if you're, if you're results that you showed were so wildly off. Why is anything else in the survey not wildly off. Ok, but there could be a silver lining to all this. I mean you brought this up in our text threadbare less I job, which is that if we take That is a given, that political, polar uses blown up and we can't trusted anymore. Then what it. What do politicians and the political class have to measure what voters want by and they actually have to go back to doing more work right. They ve got to get out there. They ve got a test messages. Remind me of something tat has had on the show. Yesterday, worries like you, gotta, be the rule So when a weird sends the silver lining to the destruction of the pulling industry would be that politicians actually have to get out there and worker room and read it and try to understand the voters by listening to them, rather than just looking at the polling number
They ve been handed on a platter. That's not a bad thing. In my opinion, oh, I think there is even a much bigger silver London, which is that we are out of Platos Cave you know we don't we do. We now actually can get to sort of explore the world for what for what it is. We know we don't have to We don't have to live by these these this fiction. You know the word, but I'm always suspicious, not just of policy but of trying to quantify mysterious and complex human phenomena, so so to see a blow up. Is I'm perfectly fine with it in that respect right? Well, you know. This is the social science issue of our time. That that, in a really interesting research is being done on an undue applicable result
thrive and that you know in social science there. There are theories that as many as seventy five percent of social science, experiments that are presented with hard data as they are until applicable either were made up or massaged or something like that. An enormous like a vast majority of them and that social science itself is therefore a questionable feel because you know you can't falsify mathematics right. You can't falsify you know. It is something that you engineer, because if you build it, it'll fall apart. If you don't use the right formula, but if you're saying you know like how many people you know are you know how many kids aren't depressed because there on a cell phone, you know how can we possibly know the information that is being gathered by those studies,
It is true the only real way that we know it is that it seems to comport with our understanding of the world. But politically you cannot use that standard. because by definition you live in a bubble. Everybody lives in a bubble any, and if you think that you know by can win by ten, because everybody, you know, is gonna vote for Biden. It makes sense that you would, because you don't really have the copy city, it's very hard to serve like create the world around you. You know using the sophistication necessary to accept that people, a belief things rat. the different from you, and that you need to take them seriously and if you don't agree with them, so I know I think, that's that's, where, where an interesting position, therefore it
persuasion it's making arguments over time and the validation or rejection of those arguments comes in elections for politicians like this. This notion that Europe wants to be able to tell how things are going well on the way than tweak your message and their drop this and don't do that under the other thing. Supposed to say the way people you know, which is unique. mixing to give a speech. You say you know, there's a silent majority and you're saying in the White House, and you get five million letters. You say you know something's up here, what we got five million letter saying I'm with you on this at that's how you do it, you don't do it by hiring. You know a for knowledge IST, brain. A poker rat. You know feel on. The sculls of the American you know was skull
I don't do that. Another another question, then, is how will politicians gauge that public response and and if too many I mean this is actually something we ve also discussed before, which is the the Excessive weight given to Twitter for Temple and other social media and an that's, I think, wider in the lead up to the selection, the debate over how much power those platform should have to censor or to kick people. is so crucial because going forward if we can trust the Poles and news fairly clearly on one side politically. In the end, they absolute honour devastation local news, newspapers and enter of alternative sources that really look into local politics are gone everybody's on these platforms, but the loudest voices and the most a partisan voices tend to dominate, as you can see,
the OECD Emmy is a huge challenge, but I agree I mean I think that if we don't have to listen to the same, you know what we need. The craft I'll turn news, particularly if you're on the conservative side of the island you care about finding candidates who actually can speak to these needs that our trump better serve the different style of politician than Trump they're gonna need to find ways to do that. That isn't you know reliant on this candidate. Ok, let me talk to what way that you might find interesting new perspectives, and that is to listen to the podcast by our sponsor today, Jordan, Harbinger in the German harboured you're, so Apple named his podcast one of its best of twenty eighteen, it and it making you a better and for more critical thinker sake and get a sense of how the world actually works and come to your own conclusion about what's happening, there's an episode, as you heard me say, for everyone, no matter what your into the show cover stories like how professional art forger somehow made billions of dollars while being chased by the feds and the mafia, he interviews, atomic master. He interview
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I don't I don't they answer continue, but I do think that you're from certain, I think, there's at its innocence distinction with a difference. I think there was an enormous republican search. Ok, but here's because I say so it is trumps getting get. It looks like about ten percent more vote. Then he got in twenty sixteen overall, but the country is. Is Has gone from three hundred and twenty two to three hundred and thirty million people in that time, so his growth is in part or natural electorate. Growth binds gonna top out at around seventy seventy one million and looks like, which is what Obama got in two thousand eight, but again, Obama got it in a smaller country. So it looks like the turn out. Here was a record, but it's a record, but it's not like some
now world. Changing events that the Turner was a record what's interesting is how it appears the coalition's that these guys got shifted from what you would have expected from trumpet twenty. Sixteen and from the Democrats, if you say you know him between sixteen and binding twenty twenty sure on before. Answer that I set up- and it is in my view, that the presidential This is the least interesting race that occurred last night in part, because I don't, I think, that the the outcome is extremely narrow. Obviously, but I don't, I don't necessarily think that at this point the president is likely to pull it out now. Less might, but what's really interesting is the until it Republicans across the board. Beat expectations. Court don't count in Colorado lost his race as he was expected to, but as this writing
other and combat that was embattled has lost Jimmy Ernst, pull it out in Iowa. Tantalus appears to have one in north Billina Susan Collins appears to have one in mean in a staple Joe Biden seem so one rather handily suggesting quite a lot of ticket splitting This writing John change remains in a very competitive position in Michigan, which he is probably likely to pull out, but it was done far better than any sir well, I meant, of course, is the big we're in Others among us gonna get through this. Let me you're going to when you appeared to have won the majority of the votes, suggesting that we can avoid a run off Martha Mixed Sally lost, and she is singularly responsible for turning to Arizona Senate's, it's blue, but that really say much about the Republican Party as much as it does is Martha Mcnally on the house level. Republicans, where lay you miss too big ones which what you, Lindsey were or one living. Where am, I forgot rapporteur,
Jamie Harrison spent a hundred men dollars in South Carolina Estate, where you would conventionally spend about five to ten million running for Senate spent ten times that final pulling average had had Lindsey, Graham up by three he's by thirteen and a half another one of the epic polling failures of this election season. Now, if he, if Linsey one by thirteen. again, this is where we go back. It is very unlikely, that Jamie Harrison was ever anywhere within shooting distance of him at all ever and that this is a number that was jined up? As a result, of bad polling even closer to three weeks ago than than an end up, insert surveys caught some movement in Windsor Grams direction, right, ok
nope. I meant there is someone. Would you want a dimension which is Miss Connell, yes, that's your economy and believe, if needed, Mcgrath here, rain, Mcgrath and also hundred million dollars without the amount of money that democratic givers wasted in this area, chauncey you wanna added up a hundred billion to Jamie Harrison, a hundred million to Amy Mcgrath. close to a hundred million to Teresa Greenfield lost Joanie Ernst? Ok, These are set at races and It's now very easy to raise money because of you know we either because of the push but nature of the internet, but my god like talk about stuff that should be given to get a homeless shelter to let you know we're too, like you know, I feed you know. Whatever you know mental
I'll, say: awareness org, you know or building shelters or you know, or something because it's my was just Evan asked into air, spend two nothing support. television and radio stations and internet sites and political consultants, at the same nothing about vainly projects to which a lot of earnest and ate it. from donors, contributed that really just line the pockets of consultants, and when I met a product like aim at our shame, it. Lincoln Lincoln Project, all the language spend the money on them more experienced stands lying Arabs in Washington, D C, guess normally, while project meanwhile the democratic senatorial Campaign Committee said Anne in late October, that they were starved for funds, and it's not like these third party. We're having a problem raising money anyway, pivoting off there? the Senate is really interesting. The houses even more interesting Republicans, were forecasts to be around a hundred. Eighty members are real rump at the end of this year,
fifteen seats, another fifteen seats are having lost forty in twenty eighteen. There were yet down fifty five seats or something yet so what happened? Republicans gain disease. They one net seats. So As of this writing writing breeding. Talking worked plus four republican seats in the house, and it doesn't and therefore on the legislative level, which was really where all the balls are. All the die is cast for the future of the next decade, because we're entering into a real portion cycle here were redistricting is the shape the map for the next ten years, Republicans held onto chamber. held onto legislative chambers in places the council Vanier Ohio, North Carolina, Michigan, Iowa Texas, they won the New Hampshire Senate and day. I think they want to try in places like Montana trafficked the governor and both chambers, the legislature This is a real blow to Democrats who had
not attracted a lot of triumphal is quotes from Democrats. The last couple of days saying you know we're gonna renamed the map and the twenty twenties will be a democratic beckett some, for that, where you know what? Let's talk policy because the eye This thing that's gonna happen here is when their draw abiden wins Trump wins, whoever wins ain't gonna be no packing the court there aren't gonna be for two new stay home before new senators. You know that this I'm going to happen, that is not going to happen so so, but in power. So for you, just look at that. In New York City MAX rose, a reasonably conservative democratic congressmen was blown out of the water in Satin island.
By Nicole Milly attackers, and you know it- she ran on. She ran on the funding, the cops and the evil of build, the plaza and tied MAX rose, who hates the blog YO and as against the funding, the cops to both. Oh and he made commercial after commercial saying he hates the Blasi, oh and he's not for defending the cops and she's a liar, and she was anyway by, I think I will ass, they saw was at some point. It was like fourteen points. Why? Because actually. The peoples that violence have understood. That of MAX rose goes to the Congress as a member of the democratic majority, he is going to vote for the funding the cops or he's not gonna, do anything to stop at or argue against it, and they don't want to fund the cops- and this is a very big thing. This is a much more important.
what I mean when I say we are not having good information to understand how the american public feels about it. Out of what happened this year, because if you have this inability of Democrats to get these fifteen seats that they were supposed to get word a flip, all these senators warranted do whatever. This is not because tromp was so strong. It could be that the issue set in the Democratic party remains to left wing. For voters in these places and they aren't going to vote for it, but you know you know that there's gonna be this contingit. This happens after at any time, and even if even if binding you know squeeze through and when but I agree with no. I think he probably well. You know that the pressure is gonna come from the left. thank God the democratic parties hang. The reason this was so close is that we didn't go full progressive like full. If, if, if we pick Bernier, if we had been go full on Bernie like Progressive,
a landslide anything don't ever learn so I think we'll see that maybe that less it will sink in if, if twenty twenty two doesn't look good for Democrats, but I don't know, I'm not convinced that lesson Miller, but here here's what I mean when I say that the polling had a bizarre effect on the national conversation this year, so when, let's say income, OSHA in other, there were the riots in Canosa. After you know, wherever call written, Hauser Democrats got worried like serious. Like politically minded Democrats got worried that this was going to hurt like this is the worst place is going to happen. It's going to hurt it's going to help Trump blah blah blah blah blah and then A couple of days alike
Well, you know that's not showing up in the polling, so I guess. Maybe the idea is not that it's gonna hurt, so they saw something happening. That made them say ye. This isn't good. It's not good. In and of itself because eating and looting and burning things in Europe, smashing windows is bad, even even though they somehow got to believe that they have to argue that it was good at some point or to observe funded or say, wasn't happening when you could see it happening behind the camera, and ass. He worked out behind the reporter, as he was talking about it say it was mostly peaceful while were burning behind them and came some data they made say I guess people don't really it's actually knocked. There really do care much more about social justice. Then they care about this and there. That is not the take away from what happened.
and was constant, even if but of bibles airy pulls it out by. You know by point two percent and lets say: tromp was down there, I mean who knows, but do we really think, given what we saw last night, that we can say of a certainty that too issue sat in twenty twenty was harmful to him. Yeah, I mean one of the interesting, take a hot potential and speculating wildly you're, obviously potential take away from that set up that you just gave his John. Is it instead? focusing on the potential shy trump voter? What was evidence of is that people self sensor when asked questions about recent identity and things that are very set. Did that the very sensitive of being seen as as on the wrong side of that actually is worrisome to me, because if people are thinking themselves While this writing Louise Scary mean this is really bad and and then there asked you support likewise matter and they go. Oh. Yes, of course,
so. Those are desert, not the city that the contradictory thing, but they are self censoring when reporting that that that, I think, is something that is gonna be worth watching. What do you think about the shy trump voter theory? Now the sigh Tory the Bradley vote theory now, given what we saw last night. I think it's it's a very robust phenomenon, and I think it's that it's a petrified trump border is is is actually what it was, which is what I suspected the case to be immediate, and you know just to revisit the Christine just said about the problem with the with the appalling here. Is that it's one thing to sort of passively walk around in the social justice world, and you know no for yourself that
that the limits that it's wrong and scary and seems unjust as Noah would say, but the polling makes you say, the lie, and they had, and that is a big retired. That's the push polling aspect that I was trying to get to a kind of macro push, Poland, that it sets a national mood these pulse can set a national mood that actually do influence the way people behave end of it. And that is their purpose and that Why? Maybe I totally agree with no, I said: look these pulse Campi as bad Cappy. His office as as people are saying, some people are saying, because the industry will be destroyed right.
but come on like we're talking about in the last four years. The idea that the signal and cardinal thing that needs to be done was to destroy Trump and get him out to save american democracy. Who knows what set of incentives that creates for people? who are labouring in the fields of public opinion, Do you know and public policy, and all that you just you just don't know their son Many incentives to HU a thing in your head, were you say I'm like that you if I went back in time- and it was nineteen thirty one in Berlin? What would I do? Well, if what I heard to do was help was help kind of like skew. The results of a pole the american people would think that you know that term black lives matter is good then I can tell my grandchildren. I did that now. That is not a conspiracy. You know, I'm not even saying it's a conspiracy, I'm just saying that
There are weird incentives and you could combine given the size of these Pauling errors. You could combine two or three It's like you can be an element of the shy trump folder. There can be the element of fighting round at the polls. There can be an element of the self censorship which is not the shy trump voter thing. Ok, here's a way for us to quantify the so I now we just had a thing going off on me: Two poles, but AP vote cast on, which is a survey of the American Lecter Averages persuaded. did summary waiting at one fifteen, a accordance with the preliminary vote total. So it's not completely ridiculous vote. Where asked how serious problem is racism in? U S, society, Now you know the right answer to that right. The right answer is very serious are somewhat as opposed to not to or not at all serious see the real responsible people would say very soon.
Someone and seventy six percent of voters said very serious, somewhat or twenty three percent said. Not serious. Not at all now want surprise you that, among that twenty three percent down one. Ninety percent of their work but among the seventy six percent, who set a very serious, somewhat problem, Joe Biden, one sixty five percent of that vote, Donald Trump, one, a full third of voters who said very serious somewhat, which just don't mean it, because down is not the candidate of racial rapprochement. We all know this couldn't be meals. This is just an arrogant. Didn't you have a question, but I am not leading because I don't know the answer but might they not mean that? Yes, racism is a problem in this country, meaning like last night when people tweet, if Trump wins its own way. people or regarding Florida. Thank you, white Cubans.
They are linked lab we're thinking about racism in this country, but not in the prescribed paradigm. So we were talking about this last night. Well, results were coming in right. There isn't there was this absolutely tortured, real time effort by be hard or identity area left Gmail hills who treaties on white people the nickel Hannah Jones of New York Times during the same thing where you. see them trying to turn particularly hispanic. Boaters white in real time is like: will there not really the minority either? Not the real minority, if you see they did their their complicit in capitalist. Mean that that the myriad of excuses that were were made were kind of fastened. but that will be the effort of the identity politics left that did when they dig in their heels. They have to turn these minority voters white or they have you as the horrible. Enjoy read said on MSNBC: they have to be culture,
pursue their own re. She called Clarence Thomas Uncle Thomas or Uncle Clarence, unwise to beat absolutely disgusting and also agrees tell us of racism in what she meant to do was accused David for of racism, So you know I'm gonna be a winner when they're all be as well. Here we are with you seem one white southerner, you see them all anyway, I'm ever they all look alike. Basically so, but I think something is gonna happen over the next couple of months had started. Have it's been happening intermittently over the course of the term presidency, particularly if Trump should draw besides way again and pull this out and actually be declared the victor full blown open, anti americanism of a sort that we really haven't seen since the sixties, with the attacks on the hard hats and the use of the pigs
monsters, and then you know that it's ok to you now blah police stations and two Blob Army recruiting stations and to spit in Vietnam veterans at all. That and this whole notion that you know where an incredibly unjust society were monstrous and the people who vote in. No, the Archie bunkers of the world are sub human should be treated as sub human and should be destroyed that is a very serious element that the need to as it was understood electrically. To still be able to appeal to some of those people which is virtually? Why Biden? ended up with the nomination, was the implicit argument that he could speak to white working class people in
Play, the Milton that none of the other latte sippers in the in the field or mail out now communist in the field could, but we are we are to set. We are two clicks of the dial away from Butter America, hatred of a very Khartunerz sort that will have horrendous implications. So what we had the cheerful message, I hope we managed to entertain you in arm in our we're done. Semi days, the condition here we are will have more to say tomorrow, with more information, That comes in so until then, for Christine EVA now, I'm John POD words. Keep the candle burning
Transcript generated on 2020-11-05.