Donald Trump’s post-impeachment glow among voters and donors is frightening Democrats. Bernie Sanders seems set to win the New Hampshire primary, and the primary voters who oppose him are divided among several alternative candidates. Is his victory a foregone conclusion?
This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
Some guy welcome So the commentary magazine Pike has today is Monday February. Tenth when you twenty. I am job onwards. The editor commentary with me is always a green wild senior editor higher Hodgen, Nora when associate or high now, hygiene and in Washington. The senior rider Christine rose high, Christine John okay, so we have two main things: Well, today, We have the acquittal of Donald, John Trump and the Friday,
Ethical supposedly have various people involved in the accusations against Trump. Relating to Ukraine or the testimony and we have the Democrats coming up on the second vote after the Iowa debacle. In New Hampshire tomorrow night so I'm not sure where we should begin. We can't even connect the two except to say that for months on this podcast am certainly when the Ukraine story first started? I have, I was argue, weighing bad impeachment, was bad for even though was clear. He was gonna, get acquitted right, that it might costume, appoint exact, they were. He couldn't lose a point in Burma,
be suburban. Republicans, who went democratic in twenty eighteen and help bring about this forty seed shift the Democrats and the House, what it was they like about him and that would be bad, and I was wrong because every piece of data that we can look out would suggest the trump was strengthened rather than hurt during the months of the impeachment process now may not be related to a picture of a largely be related to the economy, it's not like. You can look at this and then say that the impeachment the jury us in the most pressing piece of work. Evidence which I think is really staggering, is that they raised impeachment meaning emails, believed to abuse and various other things a hundred times. Five million dollars. The republican party the trunk campaign, both in hard money. A hundred
five million dollars which is about. I don't know like four times what all the Democrats raised altogether clue, all the campaigns and the Democratic National Committee in the campaign committees. So No, no injury, maybe the thing all this whole thing about how presents arrogantly impeached every time. Maybe this is just a fund raising opportunity for them. Christine What do you know? What I mean is a two things one. I think that the real she will be whether they can sustain that level of fund raising a mean. It makes sense that they will capitalize on this, that his immediate you know impeachment acquittal victory. I do think we should spend a moment to talking about his Prescott, prince about that in a sort of weird raging in and gloating and his strange choice of toned there, but I
wait and see a month from now. If he still raising that kind of money here you know, he's he's very, very savvy. His is online digital strategy, particularly using Facebook has been. Extremely smart and it's it's driving the Democrats. Slowly, mad because they, of course, one facebook to exert some control over the kinds of advertisements of the term campaign is running but they want to do that because their seeing how successful they have bad and they ve been doing that throughout the impeachment increase, but I would still save for fund raising. I would wait a month before declaring it was a total victory for him for fund raising, but you don't, but we should also states that just a fundraiser, because to me the fund, raising aspect of it makes the most sense in that order, He was under attack. He was to other defensive, so supporters kicked in, but it's also the fact that his approval rating is higher than it had been than it had ever been. Well, that's really most yet so then the question is like what about it, The impeachment processor me It him more
popular. I think it's that it made the Democrats. Look worse, look bumbling, look look reaching and as if they were overstepping there there there and it will be part of it. Obviously, right is coming home effect. If, if, as I said last week, if the Gallup Poll number with him at forty nine percent approval is reflected in other poles over the next two weeks. Certainly has numbers have gone up in every Paul, but not not to the extent that it has there. That can only mean that, among other things, people who natural Republicans, who had been disaffected by him and with him, have dropped whatever objections they had to him and have an have returned to the Republican Fold, thus turning him
into a more regular republican and people. Think I mean I know, there's always always these stories about how he gets email. Eighty eight percent of Republicans are eighty five percent or Republicans there. There has been more thereby more republicans. Sidelines in twenty eighteen demonstrated this then in other republican administrations, sort of reflecting what kind of happened with George Hw Bush in nineteen ninety one and one thousand nine hundred and ninety two. Those people off then had a place to go with Ross prose. Canada see him and you know it basically killed killed off the first Bush presidency and there's gonna be nowhere for them to go, but Trump was not uniquely popular among all Republicans, and he now appears to have ended that in the eyes and democratic over each other, lot to do with that. Suddenly it's like will he's just like that. It's just the way it always is Bush.
The fascist, George W Bush was a fascist Reagan, was, if at all, they ever do is trot out the same playbook that that all Republicans are terrible and suddenly it's now occurred to Republicans who were more disaffected with him that that there was a play book ass. Back to this the day that they would that they were, they were being out. They were being asked to fall for a democratic right, playbook against a republican president. Nobody think of that May I ask, as far as a sort of dispassionate analysis. Thirty thousand foot political analysis goes, I I find very little of it worth disagreeing with. At the same time, I sort of question whether or not it matters and in the long term, because you know you talk about twenty eighteen and it wasn't as the Republicans who are frustrated with Donald
didn't show up in twenty eighteen Republican showed up in numbers that are comparable to any other mid term elections just that they were out matched by the number of Democrats who were energized enough to to show up as well. So you can imagine the Democrats at this point would be rather disaffected frustrated in In the midst of a heated primary race, where there is no unity among the Democratic Party, you can see that manifesting. In some dispassionate responses to pollsters or non responses to pollsters. Well, we, Oh you're you're saying that the Trump numbers are good because Democrats, art Well, there's a theory arriving him alone. No there's a theory abroad that Republicans energized at this point to be much more engaged in the bridle process entered, engage with pollsters engage with the political process. What was in that context? we should talk, but that other astounding finding in that same Gallup Poll, which is that supposedly There are now more Americans who identify as
I ll begin or republican leaning, then Democrat or Democrat leaning, forty. Forty five wore out something that's why I want to keep our powder dry when it comes, This Paul, because that is so not reflective of, The thing that has happened in this country from twenty two thousand and eight onwards gallop talked about it in the polls. Relief. Semi is this kind of this kind of a shock. It doesn't really comport with all the data they seem for the rest, the yourself I'm in every every piece of day. We have, as the Democrats do better on this generic question by six but at the lowest or points and at the highest eight to ten. So it wasn't such a profound jumped that the pollster was like. I just take us with brain us all. We don't even believer in results, need that it's not that crazy but it is a job also that Gyre Paul number was particularly inaccurate in twenty eighteen. If you remember
that it showed what does it show it showed like it was like you know, this is not comporting with a with a blow out democratic victory. We were I'll just days before, which was by the way. Also true in twenty fourteen of the republican blowout cuz, it was like three or four points: six thousand four hundred and twenty six points, Democrat and then Democrats got nine million more votes than republicans dead and got forty seats. So this is maybe a bad number. The generic number may now be an inaccurate number in general Christine well, and this is also, though, why you see such panic among the Democrats right now. Right, I mean forget the debacle in Iowa, which was the debacle. It still showed very clearly that the moderate, but by was not out and so I think that if you worry about how people define themselves as conservative or conservative issue or moderate, those numbers might become much more,
clarifying. If the nominee on the democratic side is isn't about socialist amid a really think, there's a there's a lot of churn going on right now we're a vote. Voters who otherwise are proud to call themselves Democrats are not going to, proud to do so with Bernie Sanders. Is the nominee? Ok? Well, you know David Leonhard of the New York Times, who was until two or three years ago the reporter like was the washing bureau chief and the chief economics correspondent, who is now in a rights at opinion column that is uncommonly almost hilariously partisan, serving come weird analogue too few, who it on the on the republican side, has a soul. According to our current, they called the quiet in the New York Times called the question. All Democrats need to ask themselves if your preferred candidate doesnt work. Combination. Will you still do everything you can to deny tromp a second term
its worthy Bernie Sanders. Elizabeth Warren aren't just wrong a big issues, but two left to get erected programme elected progressives worry that peat by the judges, inspiring centrists winds up. My message to panicking Democrats is take a deep breath and don't make your job here. Neither side of the party can ensure that referred candidate will win the nomination, but both can help avoid the outcome. They fear most trumps reelection so basically were now it's February and we have left the mainstream media columnist, who were now desperately. Ordering Democrats not to raise We question existential questions about whether or not their candidates can win. That is like it know. That's like likely. You know you, you know you will not. You know we will not speak up against the five year plan. I mean it, it's
What else should people be talking about in February of twenties when they're trying to decide what candidate to elect will? Not that I mean it's it's kind of noxious, because it's like arguing in only against the tide. This is what happens with two Bernie Sanders. The nominee yeah he'll get ninety percent of their democratic vote. Just like Donald Trump got. Ninety percent of the republic of negative partisanship will take care of the rest. You really don't have to worry about it. The problem should be. Is you should be arguing for policies and preference? Isn't candidates you'll like now, I'm not whether or not Democrats are going to unite around the candidate that you have apprehensions about because they, but you're saying they will period and, of course, the big argument that is going on. That Biden failed as apparently failed to make success. We at least on his own behalf, is you can't Bernie Sanders. He can't win. He can't win because
as he's too left wing just as in every race. You know that Republicans, faced since rate since, before Reagan there was this question: are the ideological terms in the race. Two right wing to win, so you know, and so the jam we speaking the guy who was a clicker too to the to the left of the further right candidate prevail in republican circles, because it was thought that being a pure purist right. Winger would be off putting so you're cases the Madden, and this is something that will involve Buckley famously said, as you vote for the most conservative candidate who can win, I'm sorry that it is weird that in February columnist, who is supposed to be an advocate for for Paul
see views. Ordering democratic voters not to have nervousness or or tat word that the candidate should not raise existential questions about why they should be the nominee versus the other part people who are running because it might hurt the ticket in the fall you also get on in this is another, so I'm basically a subscriber to Jonah Goldberg theory of everything, which is that the destruction of institutions particularly open this: has transformed just about everybody around those parties into party apparatchiks so now effort we people whose job it is to say things like that now perceived themselves to be flax and then doing a disservice the team? By doing what was their job, which is asking discomfitting questions right, so trumps, trumps approval rating up and then, as Christine load, it is a programme has up and his response to acquittal. Was this
conference where he you now said, I've been mistreated, I've been dragged through Hell, You know this is all bs and then of course, the day after he tells Gordon Farmland whose republican donor, who had no, business being an ambassador to the EU in the first place, a hotelier at Seattle. That his services would no longer be required and then, he transferred these two military detainees people detail to the annex c, Alexander women, who testified at his brother Yevgeny, who was one of those There is, at the Anna, see back to the Pentagon, which turned to people to the he fired, the women's than they were frog marched out of the White House. While I know he did, and they were, but it's a lot of their island Edison dated way will raise a fire lizard. They did not lose excuse me. They were not. Thrown out on the street without a job
they were doing so they have less at our case, Donald Trump wants to orally to fire all responsibility for this he's asked about this on the white. How Jani goes we'll see what they want to do they want to do is if the National Security Council deeds details and dispassionate on people. This is one thing he wanted to do when the nose I can't do it is absurd, but of course he did it, but It was very negative. Why else would they get rid of his brother? Where they are they're going to run into the twin brother and say what are you still doing here We do with anything, but our rid of him as part of that. As with Dick, dear monotonous Hotmail and are identical twins, the speaker, private language may have telepathic connect to each other? I have how it can help him. How can we be sure that you have guessed? It is rhetoric on his family which is using? This is precisely what you would do in these transmitting national situation secrets to his brother telepathic. I do think the twin thing makes that introduces a kind of welcome comic element to the whole firing, but there I mean so. The question is worth
being in their whistleblower protections and plays for government employees who, who testify about wrong, doing So now humor has announced that he is going to ask inspectors general to look into this transfer, and I agree we should call it a transfer. I mean they were fired in the sense that they were left without any employment whatsoever. But on its own to my question is I haven't yet decided whether it's it's within the purview of reports to feel like someone who's disloyal. Could be removed or an? Is that always gonna be retaliation? I mean, I think, that I did I just feel like, like notably those ok. This is super weird, I'm sorry, the guy works in the eggs The office of the President on the National Security Council and he went for the hat forget his brother. We can, with we can deal with you have gaining a minute but Alexander goes and says the president did wrong here, behaved. Hee hee P violated our policy.
What is he still want to work? Therefore, the present use crosswise of the president policy matters and be how what business? Why does Trump He will this first part of dismissal on its face, because half the administration in this first year was made up of people who disagreed with the president on policy about not the humbler coined did in order to shape the. If the policy then move it in a direction that they thought was appropriate right and, of course, its vengeance and vindictive, and of course the president can do it- they don't run our own that, because the president is uniquely conflict diverse, but also because it doesn't look good. I think it looks depends on who you Paypal for a moment. It problem looks fine yeah, but but I think it looks fine by the way I don't, and only if, if look I'm someone. I think the treatment overall of women was disgusting was wrong. Was you know full of bad
faith and lies and paranoia and and all sorts of terrible motives. But of course I think if someone is and is not consonant with with the administration would with with the White House? that said. So why why would you have them there? I think I think it's. I think it's only obvious. I agree. Disloyalty is not the only I mean again. First of all, is important to note in terms First of all, I don't know what inspector generals role. There is no inspector general at the White House, and this is the press. Personal Office, I'm Congress has no sway That's why? Then testifying was itself an aggressive acts, because Trump said people shouldn than he did it's fine? I mean I'm, not I'm just saying that that you make these choices and these choices have
positive and negative consequences. Windmills now, hero to tens of millions of people and Trump doesn't want em in as he doesn't want, em in the building any more now he's not, as I say out on the street, without a career without a life, without anything like that. He contains a salary level. He was terribly, he was detailed the White House from the Pentagon, I can remember the used to be its tv or something like that, there's a tom for it. By the way one of the ways of the White House keep salary levels down, because they they bring people in from agencies and their paid by the agency and not by the White House in the White House budget doesn't go, it's. Why said, suddenly the White House is now too, so through three times the size. The staff is that it used to, because so many people are actually paid by the cabinet departments, but I mean
it may be bad, it's bad and he's mean and Trump is a mean nasty person who treats people meanly in that sleep. Well, you know like it's also a day ending in Y, who doesn't know that already whether this are the humor and spit shimmer sent a letter to evidently every agency inspector general to investing any any whistleblowing who report any risk of any retaliation against whistleblowers who reported presidential misconduct so that, be again. You know if you're, if you're, if you're trumps team, what you say is look they lost impeachment. You know I was quite another. After me, and this where me there's a way he's gonna. Probably in this my question: Is that a bit of over each on parted in putting just posturing to sort of seas on this than men? You know reassignment momentum, it is that smart politically for roaming, weirdly, a Redman yeah. What weirdly amendment cannot be called a whistle whistle blower is actually now because of
legislation is a is a term of them. I was sick term of art, but that's not quite the is a legally sanction time he's not a whistle blower. He is not an anonymous person who got up and, and- and you know, em talked about stuff. He is a public official, a representative of the National Security Council who went before the Congress and said what happened in Athens security council. While I was there was wrong and the policy was mishandled and all of that, and then he goes back to work, like what? What happened, for example, to the principled resignation, I mean that that's where I'm. You know in another country and a parliamentary system you would resign in principle before you then went out and said whatever it is. You sat I'm not saying that then is a dishonest person or a dishonourable person, and I agree with the aim that the way Tom
partisans on the right talked about him is disgusting. People are, I'm talking about court marshalling him, they should drop dead. Those people. That is, you know, offensive. I do say that is a little ridiculous for a public official to say that the president did you know was was acting in opposition to american policy on Ukraine, or something because there is no american policy, where the president is whatever the president sets it at that time, policy works like it's, not the permanent, Roxy doesn't make policy on Ukraine look: if they didn't want to send a message they wouldn't have been really began to write this. An effort to send a message and message. I believed I agree, but as I say, and then the fact that people don't want to acknowledge that message is tested it just about anybody whose acknowledge who's trying to talk about how this is all policy and completely appropriate for the president and there's no power feelings their whatsoever. It's just the president and his staff to be his staff.
Ok, listen! He was the case. You just sub tweeted Abe there. So I gave a robot looking right at, but then I can imagine that this would be the course they would take, but as the course they took him, they wanted to communicate something it has been communicate. But I dont disagree with that are also I'm. I'm not saying that. I wouldn't simply to get much saying that if I want to take a look right at the guy straight out, our John trying to make trouble we have we have. We have French of friction here. I'm a commentary magazine let's take apart. Here for a minute, and let me talk to you about our sponsor- keeps look. Two out of three guys will experience some form of male pattern baldness by the time, their thirty five. The good news with today's advancements insides keeps offered offers prison, proven treatments like it combat the symptoms of hair loss and help you keep the hair, you have at half the cost of your local pharmacy, you don't have to go abroad
to avoid going bald, keeps offers generic versions of the only two f, the approved hair loss products out there. Some of you may have tried them before, but probably never for this price plus keeps now offers a prescription shampoo. To give your scalp healthy to prevention is key and keeps treatments really work. They are up to ninety percent of active at reducing and stopping it further hairless. The sooner you start using, keeps the more harry'll safe, so act fast, many men, experience. Harry growth with keeps treatments keeps revolutionise the way men are treated for hair loss thanks to keeps in all after the doctors office for your help us prescription. Now you can visit a doctor on line and get your hair Medication delivered to your home, no more waiting rooms, no more pharmacy check outlines get doktor attention, indiscreet, drug delivery, all from the comfort him privacy of your own home find out. Why keeps has more five star reviews that any of its competitors and nearly one hundred thousand men trust keeps for the hair, less prevention, medication
keeps treatment started just ten dollars a month plus for a limited time. You can get your first month free. That's one! the deal forgetting to keep your hair man. I wish I'd done this when I was in my twenties, but it was of available and now it's available- and I am now I'm not a cue ball- but I'm I'm shining on top, and let's face it, you know one eye. I had no was gleaming thick head of hair some staring out right now. I wish you could see it. It's beautiful. Please go to keep start com, slash commentary to receive your first month of treatment for free, that's k, e p s, dotcom slashed commentary, that's k, e p a com, slash whenever you know what I think I must that k e e p s, I think, out of the thirty. It is not a thirty two
His k, e p S, dotcom, slash commentary and thanks to keeps responses. We commentary package so your but all you're, all a bunch of lying dog, faced pony soldiers has anyone. Everyone who means, everyone who is listening in the sound of my voice. You are you're lying dog face pony soldier now. Noah has informed me, because I didn't listen to Joe Biden. Upbraiding Lee knew him sure voter for being a line dogfish face soldier for saying that he been to a caucus that it was all in good fun and everybody laughed. However, reading Biden after you know coming in fourth and Iowa and or even close, the fifth, I'm closing in on fifth in New Hampshire reading him yelling at having there was a remedy the elder the gutter We held the people, and I were too
tat. He really all that I fad idea and then what but there is there anyway. I guess I'm a veteran oppression. Yassum website is setting a cover for something yes, yes, I got a temper ample. These lagoons grandpas, hence short literally. He is turning into Grandpa, assumed that this was not that in comprehensible into the stream of consciousness that emerged. There was indecipherable weird and people, and a searching movies try to find the quotes and that they exist, but it still really weird and and silly sublet at the name. For my more a yellow ribbon, apparently, but that that's that's dog soldiers, not pony soldiers or members of John Wayne, unworthy called horse soldiers, pony soldiers, but we're dog faced comes in. I don't know it just ass, it doesn't matter, but it matters extremely strong but it did with the land in the room and there's nonverbal cues there that resonated with the audience and the Romans.
Do you ever been to a cautious before she said no and then went with the dog faced pony soldier line every laughed and it was seen a sort of acute weirdness but guide, it didn't work on line, obviously, and certainly does not lend itself, although a transcript, but it did play well in the room. Chrysanthemum non event, but what's interesting about it, is that after all, after watching Friday, night too where there wasn't a single kind of crazy moment, and we are all waiting for it right to kind of make our are useless to in some odd hours of watching. It means something that was the It was his been a weird remark. During a you know, Town Hall Forum, that got a lot more play, people her car, that, whereas, if one I've asked who did you know, the reason was a debate, they were completely clueless, so I thought that was interesting. It actually does speak, to which I was saying where there's this danger that that Biden as he's trailing can start to look a little bit manic, and that is not a good look for it. I was kind of my take away from the debate. To is that the mantle of wind by now
losing had passed from Joe Biden to people at age right as the, whereas no other hand out moment for anybody really, but whereas Biden, you do it needed to accomplish something, but it is just needed to tread water to maintain whenever bounties he's gotten. Although we have somewhere will some polls that suggest it may be fading in favour of a closer, but bottom line was, is Joe Biden needed to achieve something? Didn't Well, ok, so the debate which we, which we watched, but nobody else watched, seven hundred million people watched it. Nobody, fifty million people watch the first that, with a basis, the audience with the debates as we are approaching actual voting is now after the site. That's where the debates started, that SAM. That's one of these weird signs about democratic, doesn't get potential disengagement among among voters, but whatever I what woods
interesting to me about the baby. To combat this in your post was the section where they got to issues of rags and, of course, the the subject. Of the race questions are, nor is If Biden is fading and bite in the polls South Carolina, which is up in two weeks and is the fourth state The first really suggestive large state. Biden who was leading among african american voters by two for three two one like up near fifty theirs, was down your twenty or blower. If by is crater ring, then that vote is up for grabs and one of the ways which were it appears that the way that democratic candidates wanna talk about talk to an appeal to African american voters is to talk about systemic racism
and systemic racism is different from races rikers, racism, is what policies are you gonna act to counteract races? Right? That's article direct Rachel was so affirmative. Action. Were you know that of the other through some re areas, such as lots and but that what that's, what that's, what it was blue warrants and right? But but as as some Andrew Yang said you can't legislate away systemic racism, systemic racism. It means that racism is bound up in the american experiment. Now wrapped around like ivy or like a parasite or whatever and there's no there's no getting rid of it. So the message of the Democratic Party is to ask: american voters who the message would seem to be given that and was the person that they wanted, that they want somebody who isn't crazy, that you,
life is forfeit like you're. Here, you're gonna get killed by cops and you have that you can't get a leg up and everything is honourable and maybe they're right, maybe that's a good message, but I would say that, given the fact that every candidate who was proffering that message in the courts of twenty nineteen, that's better work and Comma Harris that they all faded to nothing, It would suggest that it's weird that that's where the default is because it's the only way the Democrats can talk about Rachel issues that you wrote a really fantastic column of the house after this debate, and you should have a chance to tat really talk about a briefly. But to me this without having the data just an analog. It feels to me like the way these Democrats try to appeal to african american voters. Black Democrats is the way Democrats in the last election cycling cycle. Before that tried to talk to hispanic voters in the hispanic voters. They envisioned
and the spanish people. They talk to and advocacy groups care about, one thing and one thing: only emigration and that's it. Absolutely not what hispanic vote Actually care about- and this to me feels like you know, we will talk to african american Democrats because the only thing they care about a systemic inequality and racism, but that's it Democrats that they talked too, who are african, american or advocacy groups in their progressive in there in their political beliefs in their disposition. But that's not the black demographic that votes fur. Democratic politician was that's right. That's what I'm wondering about wanted Biden if they wanted Biden by dies. Then them don't you want to say the kind of things by says that they wanted to here yet but why it's not only I mean it's also so much of that stuff actually is generated by white liberals, and you know some of that that that comes out of White woke discussions about
ideas about what black people are. Just though the p with whom we interact or professional democratic pole, politicos and advocacy advocates for policy outcomes and their much more progressive right, and the african American Voting Base, based on every pull that we see, as particularly on cultural issues, while as low as you ve said the funny part is that, Bernie Sanders that the that the left populist message on economics hat- should have some appeal to African American spanish for that, as you know, like you're being screwed by the rich guys and unique, we need basically a lot of government. So, supports to levy or even the playing field? That is not sister like racism. That means that ever a part of your existence. Yo you are just you. Are I down trodden loser that's the kind of weird net effect of
sixteen nineteen project I've. Yet there is no hope, there's you cannot get beyond this. This is this is original sin and you're dead. Yeah, I suppose the receive you wanna sharp It's funny I used just as you said, original sent us against the sort of predestination argument about raised that the democratic elite, and particularly as nor mentioned the serbian ape, mentioned the kind of white woke elite, and we know this from Pew Research. Data and data about kind of tribal splintering in power. Takes these days. Those are the folks who are promoting this rhetoric and if you look at actually the day to day, concerns of the people African American you were going to elect chronic nominee, that's it's a totally different thing, but it's an incredibly appealing narrative for journalists as well to cover costs it fit fees into this. Broader, very, very thing, that's actually about the ambience, is more about ambience and about specific behaviors and specific policies, because, honestly, that the thing that they don't we
Confront is. Why has no one talked about affirmative action, for example among the democratic due to remember a single mention of it during any of these debates, and we have specific race base policies that we ve been pursuing in this country for debt Why not look at whether or not they have been successful? Why not asked questions about that? I would love to have seen Andrew Yang discuss affirmative action on a stage that was filled with some african american democratic nominees that never really happened. So, like policy aside, what were just in terms of politics What we are seeing now is the opposite of what we say speak to see, which is a little bit more consolidation among the candidates, in fact that the opposite is occurring as that this crop of top five candidates, broadening their share of the voting for it binds fading but Bernie none. This is. Early gaining in your having the moderate lane as it were, which is but a judge. Clover churn and Biden are now essentially splitting their votes
from what we ve been seeing in the early states and the national Poles, which is good for burning. More to the point. You know, if Biden really does begin to collapse, where do these african American Democrats go they're not going to people to judge for structural reasons there, probably not going Amy closure for a variety of other political reasons, is not an appealing candidate for this demographic. So where do they go? The fact, as they probably go to burning burning is not well candidate in the race that kind of cultural stuff turns off he's the progressive candid and the race, prototyping and others do not turn them off. Michael of work has his own problems, but he's not completely out of there. Again, we misinterpret with a black boat. Is by these. Probably not US feeling well, we don't know that other other religion are. Let's assume that we clearly if we, if we just play the assumption, game and amiable which are both blow, who's out in new, had let blow out liquor per tire blows up at the she actually like blows, passed her suppose it ceiling in New Hampshire. Does my
you better? You know she like gets fifteen sixteen seventeen percent so that there is the she's the person whose moving like butter, judge, last week she's moving this week, nobody expected it would be this good in New Hampshire, maybe she'll get another look bye, Bye demo I don't know why she's less appealing than Bernie. Necessarily I mean they just may not have paid the slightest attention to her before and I'm not saying I dont know what, it means I'm in aiming which are doing really well tomorrow. Night relative to extra expectations also has the powers WWW scramble the race a little bit, because why should people judge swimming. You know, like Caucasus, end You know twice as many people are going to vote in New Hampshire as voted on in Iowa. Thank and so You know we don't know them. The vat is another carcass, and so you can say I Caucasus socket there's gonna have now the best part. Is you noticed how
they're gonna use an app but they're, not calling it an app did you knows that, and now it's an Ipad function they're gonna bet, they're gonna have an Ipad function is opposed as opposed to an Iphone Hap to account about anything, but a debacle o the self congratulation arises. How is opposed to run? We everything s smoothly out by the way I use one thing: I don't, we are now in the whole one Iowa right who one that we don't have one there's no way of knowing who won and bus and- and I think that we should. We need to point out that even oh, everyone's blaming the app which it is useful and, to some extent your times it a big piece about how it this is more than about the app the fiasco is much deeper and involves the weight of the Democratic Party, and I what has been handling elections for some time, so that scepticism should continue at right. But the other thing is it's not a winner, the democratic
primary caucus process is not a winner takes all process the way most it wasn't the republican Party. So if by the judges Sanders effectively tie. Even though Sanders wins the popular vote by four thousand their tied like Neither of them goes closer to the to the convention better offer worse off, and so you know all we everyone in those who cross the finish line first, but that's actually not what proportional voting and rank choice, vote whatever how this works. The way this works? Is the delegates are divided up based on the percentage of votes gotten and the Democratic Party may come to this. If Might Bloomberg, who was now spent two hundred and eighty million dollars on advertising in places that no
media person is seeing because, of course it's all these the produce they states and there is no local press anymore than the United States. So the fact that you know used to be able to go to a new paper and feeble could say: one of the reasons that Clinton didn't do what she it's due in those three midwestern stated that there was no reported going on about is caught, from their own reporters, because there's like one good reporter in Milwaukee is literally is Craig Gilbert Milwaukee? That's it like there's, no one in the entire state was content to say oh, my god, nobody's campaigning here. You'd our troubles really coming up, or whatever and so You know we don't know. What's going on like Bloomberg there now, pulls the chill Bloomberg rising and Maybe he's gonna like get thirty five percent one of these two. How do we know we know
what if I would thirty five percent he'll get. You know like a lot of allotted a allotted delegates, but I mean leaving this congested convention talking to me kind of silly because they go to the conflicts say it contested convention, the delegate leader wins on the first ballot. I get. You know you ve got the first Bene first ballot, but there's no second ballot in everybody's unbound right and then you can vote your conscious and the second ballot, and there will be this outbreak of courage and the unacceptable ballot winner. If it's burning in it will face some sort of revolt in the floor. That's that's not gonna. No, it just means to trample be re elected by Labour day. I mean it. Grow party falls to pieces. Are the convention floor? That is not good for the Democratic Party. That's why we went you wear at both the Cleveland where they have to go in twenty six year. You remember what a mess that was
It wasn't a dance at all, was a mess, nobody will ever hold on the convention for everybody in the room was devastated. I was there and let me assure you that it was not the revolt on the floor. The result of the floor was people booing TED crews at Paul man, affords direction like there was no revolt on the floor. It wasn't real annulled. Out of it was then used by Trump and the Trump campaign to show their power in our hats, white Paul Manifold was the campaign chairman could see really knew. How did you know how to run a convent so that when they read when they, you know crews, making a huge mistake, less let the camp? his speech before he delivered its, are they had the cue to start booing him
when he said everybody should vote their conscience, respectfully, all the images of people. I conclude, Nellie throwing their credentials and senator mightily revolting against the nomination process. Demanding a second vote were all images that all of us at the fellow time felt, would be used against the Republican Party all through autumn, and we have a serious effect on board repressing effect on republican voters. Did not mature. I'm holding up my phone on my phone, I have a photo of my friend, then see nor you know marching out of the convention hall when, as trumpets you know That that was my experience of the result is a photo frozen. Follow somebody who's, Bacchus turn, you not walking out of the working out of the hall? I mean so that it was not a serious revolt, let's just say, but. So anybody wanna play stupid prediction. Games does but does this morning at over thirty does PETE does
does Amy get over twelve does pardon Finally, I wanted you Amy Amy Beads, that's gonna, be my new Hampshire provision. I'm sure it's wrong, but that's what I want is opposed. Strong Nuttall Poles or say well, hair tied, basically ever there within the margin of error each other? so once go in the right direction. When school in the wrong direction, does Biden continue, but you ve got budget comes in fifth, pine comes in fifth in New Hampshire he's gonna go on these going to suffer line. Absolutely is a money to go there. That's where his campaign, predicated on Successive South Carolina he's not dropping out. Ok, if Barack Obama on Wednesday says Joe, is my hero and I love him and he is the greatest sky on earth them he's done such an amazing job reminded people happy warrior he is, but this is not his ear. You think he goes on probably yeah and he could
plug on it, but that's all you could pull the plug on it. That campaigns. Momentum is its own. Momentum is not superfluous day. As the question not sell Carolina were now I mean did them, then he comes in fifth and then you go and then there's a pole of thousands are lies area. Your envisioning, in which Brok of Amr enters the Rays all night to Kneecap Joe Biden. According to two democratic, regular there's a whole theory of democratic regulars that says that by that Obama kind of made it clear to the o bombings that they should trash Biden on tv and stuff like that, like in a David Axelrod who has been like doing nothing but talking about what a terrible candidate brightness this for months now he was right. Obviously I mean that that's what's funny about this is that is that by You know everybody was right here like if you said, Biden, look good
poles and therefore you had to judge from the front runner and people were under arrest, people who said that he was doing terribly under estimate him! That's why that's what whatever little data we had suggested, including pull showing him winning or tying in in Iowa the last week. I get everybody. You said how on earth is the ape you hear the beard of Anti by yeah. I always thought that it was. He couldn't maintain that sort of kind of quiet. Middle ground and serve patiently fending off the Woke stirs kind of buying into their there there their line kind of not never be inspiring? I, and I always thought that there was that there was more Bernie support that that that would rear its head. That we know I was the other guy I was the guy- was listen to the poles and the new tonight in Spain. Hasn't quite materialised. Yet we should be cautious. About
pre Tang events with a very with the lack of data, because it all is predicated on South Carolina and we could support tomorrow. That shows that his basis, a poor black Democrats have not moved mountain at the funny thing is, that that moderating personality had his hand at the beginning of the campaign. Clearly he it was all in he was violently. Suppressing his bite and rage, and that perhaps that's what he's. I almost explosion every debate, but now it's coming out of a little bird pseudo, acute screaming at people that their fat and calling them dog face pony soldiers like clearly that rage has been there all along and actually that rages worked well for people, like tenders, and maybe you just needs a tap into his- do no inner animal and I will always carried it out if the dog face pony soldier moment becomes abiden rage moment. It will be a great injustice to him. You all have to watch the video. It was not a moment. It was. There was a bizarre
our dearest dream, but it was like then, already and greatly for have half the debate on Friday night five was the best that he's ever been and it was when he got are you going? What started yell actually cause? He didn't sound like he was. Half asleep and he was making. You know, Sir good arguments relatively speaking and then he he went into some power, Duration. That made absolutely no sense, although p by the judge, had the first peroration that made no sense about that we're going forward so that we don't go back. We have to look sideways in order not to look. Down as were looking up and now like twister wasn't, if you'd out with it wasn't. It was Rubio on and on and on loop, but no it was up. It was Obama, he's been being a fund of over the whole weekend for being the way.
Obama challenging Callanan channeling Obama, which, by the way I heard there was this weird breathy moment that was just Obama, ask cadence why's that it was just did jarring, but is that an insult one of the most successful democratic politicians at last, a generation that you're channeling and in an essentially emulating successfully. That's I am, They were. I love that too, because the lava Gaza was how old was. Obama was rice, forty seven, whereas Britain has eyes beatin, so use wears out soap, budgets. Three, ok, so he's the first series black candidate for president- and the judges, the first series gay having for present he's young and Obama's young, and he has very little political experience in Obama's very little political experience I think the analogue is pretty exact. You know, that's why this weird thing of eurobonds and he's not Barack Obama will who the hell was Barack Obama's ago, gave one speech I lit and then foot then never voted. It was set up. If you will
what was his absentee rate like seven were prairie high. That was that attack on him. No I'm am told in the Senate out in the sun if he had like a seventy percent absence rate voting, because see you know, start running for present, two thousand six, really by the way, I think Buddha, judges, more impressive than Obama was running back then, because one thing that just doesn't seem to have it. Obama had on for a long time is a kind of gap about in an understanding of what the other side was, and You know serve where Progressive ISM was in the larger spectrum, get any sort here, He had no sense that this wasn't dead is view. Wasn't the way that sort of world work where I think, but it, is it more canny about understanding the larger political that, of course, what they mean when he and clover char say we're from
MID West, we can run cows were from the MID west. What they're saying in code is we live in a world where Republicans conservatives exist, and you don't. You all live in cities and Stephanie Christine the other thing that I think Buddha Judge does very well that Obama never really quite mastered, is not talking down to people and meaning ones. Errors. Britishers is very quick, particular matters of race to say here's where I messed up. Here's where I need to do better. That's actually pretty appealing when you consider the kind of elite thanked mony that has long been a vice of democratic party politicians like Hilary and even Obama. You know that kind of S oral coolness that that was not always the greatest way to connect with voters. Buddha judge doesn't do that myths error which I think is I mean, obviously it's all done with strategic purposes in mind, but I find that much more of a canoe
thing for voters than Obama quite close on this question, so there that one of the talking point after the Trump acquittal was that, in contrast to clip, in contrast, the current Clinton you know, was, was, was acquitted and then his first speech. He said I just want the american people to know, I'm really sorry right and that Trump didn't do that. Instead, he had the press conference that Christine talked about where he raged and everything like that. So this strikes me as very interesting, because what. What is being said is that Clinton came out and said he was really sorry and ever Democrat in the House and in the Senate voted against in peace and for acquittal there was no vote.
No, I'm sorry. There were five votes in the house to impeach among among southern Democrat, but every democratic, the Senate voted quit. He came out and said he was sorry because that was The line that they decided to take after the star report came out. That he was sorry. They had the picture of him and you know, would Chelsea walking between Kim Hilary, and you know There was that easy thing where they they? They photographed a cabinet meeting where Al Gore said with sitting there. Mr President, you have to get your act together because that Was there spin their spin? Was you know it? I have done something bad. You know as a sexual peck deal that hurt his marriage. But you know that's not worthy of you know, and so
Trump, the Republican Trump line? Is he didn't do anything wrong? Now we figured figured he was gonna have to some of the problems. We're having with knowledge is something wrong in three of them: dead right, we're cat Collins and Romney said that he had done something wrong. Alexander Lamar right, so they all said that he did something wrong, but then some worthy of you know rebuilding him from from office. That's more than anybody in the Senate. Actually formatively said it was that that was the Clinton line. So once again, how on earth could trump say that he had done something wrong when his entire way of approaching this was to say, was a perfect phone call. He did nothing wrong what's this was do like turn around and say you know what I did something one and by the way
then I'll. Yet you write nineteen as I have in mind now. Yes, he would have. He would have taken the access Hollywood tape playbook, which is the only time I think he's ever apologized for anything or ever sought forgiveness for anything, and it was to acknowledge that there was some wrong doing in your interpretation of his behavior. It was the if you're offended. I'm sorry, I'm sorry, but by the way, the Clinton after the acquittal. After saying he was sorry, they spend two spent two years making jokes about how you know. No one could touch him I mean I remember, but the White House, correspondence dinner and ninety nine and two thousand where he where he was very provocative about his own misdeeds and how he had you know about arrest the republic- probably the barest themselves, not him, and then he various other things like it wasn't like he wasn't cocky afterwards he was pretty cocky and that's one of the reasons that Al Gore were so enraged with him.
Two thousand and said that you know he basics effectively said the Clint was the reason that he didn't win or whatever I don't know why bring them up, but anybody Have well because trumpets Trump is going to behave in a mean he's he's. Obviously, in and plenty of gloating, and it's getting plenty of criticism for that as well. He's just choose to do it much more transparently and on social media in press companies, whereas Clinton kept it to the sort of elite. It like things like the correspondence dinner and other places the increased all was on his side. Anyway, the fix was in for him, so they they had all been laughing is along with him, and I think now it's dinner trumps just doing it can be truly believe He should clover some sort of democratic, parallel Latona. Who can remember
go get him out of them. I think so, if ya, some back to the Democrats briefly, I mean it seems like Bernie Sanders is in the position here been everybody thinks that's who wants to who'd Trump wants to face off against. I mean yeah, obviously, but am not entirely sure that that something should wish for because he does chew a little bit into his populist appeal and could scrambled map a little bit and maybe the second closest person that he would like to run against his people to judge and both of them appear pole position, I mean which one would you if you were Trump, would you prefer noting obviously with the caveats that anybody who gets a major party nomination can win the presidency and there's a lot of things that will happen between now and November, and both these are skilled, candidates, will give the president a run for his money got to got to got a copy of the side which one is the is the better one for the Republicans want to face. I'll. Give you an example of something that may suggest bad long term chess playing strategy, which is
I think you gotta say that part of the Biden Fade has to do with months of the impeachment process. Arriving Republicans to say, hunt Terrorism Hunter Bourgeois Hunter Brisbane, let's bring Hunter and Hunter Hunter Bismarck, charisma and that enough damage That's her that when she's going to pound him like, I was going to like a piece of meat. You know, and that makes him less electable, and I don't know if he's a delectable as he looks like he was electable before. And if trumpet kept his powder dry and reserved the attack on Biden for when he actually got the nomination. He could have let him he could have let him if he had them. If he had the way of doing this, he could have like kept going by then gets the nomination, and then he spent six months. Turning Biden into crooked by what this, whereas gales and then he's made.
Maybe the reason by got knocked out- and maybe Biden was the most vulnerable, not the most delectable. This is where a skilled nominee amount. Think Bernie Sanders will be that because he has too much antipathy in his heart towards the Democrats with whom he has surrounded himself Let us go many. Could leverage this to their advantage, should martyring of Joe Biden over what was essentially Donald Trump Plan, which was to get the political effect of an investigation into Joe Biden without the actual investigatory work being done into something, for all intents and purposes, on its face, there is nothing there that could actually lever it delivers rather substantially and cleverly, not just against the present above the republican Party that had adopted the president's tactic right but I don't know I mean you know one of things. Santos has that's potentially trump pm. He's not really a Democrat he is free to attack the Democratic Party won.
Once he's like on the glide path gave. A nomination is free to attack the Democratic Party institutionally the way the trump fell totally free to attack the Republican. Institutionally only difference is that because Democrats like in democratic, more than Republicans likening Republicans and there there's all this, like you know, that's why you can have a really nasty primary debate, because they're also chicken about saying anything negative about each other, the answer My question is paid by the judge because people it it would be a much more effective president. Getting the kind of legislation. Bernie Sanders once passed past cause he's not gonna moderate he's a radical progressive, but he writes mast himself and he's an effective rhetorician will be more effective in that role in the presidency. Well, we could discuss more interesting than we expected like three weeks ago. I would say this that this race, but in a way that I don't I
we haven't, really gone into this question of what the general ethos and mood and spirit of the democratic parties and suffer what I said the beginning about David Leonhard. Maybe we should talk, let some of that on the next podcast, but it doesn't feel. Good like a if I were a Democrat, I would not be feeling good and it's not because them they're gonna nominated a radical and Bernie Sanders and lose there's something at the mood and spirit of things that nothing that they have wanted to do from impeachment. The ILO Account- and there is also this great frustration- that the countries in good shape right Well, that's always a problem. That is all you know, all happy dollar domestic, damn it always like wake up America and it was like air. What we woke up to the economy grew seven and a half percent this year contract a vague ways. What am I not asleep? You know this thing. It's feel good to me. Right now, you know was like you,
This guy is terrible. You know it's right by your right. He's terribly self link a bedroom, but you know what I mean: I'm my foreign k ratifies the size it was in my, maybe what you know, and that is of trying to convince people that you know worse off than they feel is a fool there, and that is it. Strange political, but it means your hand is much harder to plan obvious But this is why the structural racism type arguments these large, abstract, buggy men are gonna, be something that unfortunately, the Democrats are gonna have to turn to if the economy still tugging along- and you know, people feel optimistic as they claim they delay will. Then you have this kind of demonic, walk like the horrifying scary, terrifying walk of politicians and happened sometimes, like you know, just Chernobyl was a hallmark moment on the way for the Soviet Union cracking up and down.
Eighty six sex Rachel was a Saxon lives over. You was gone by by ninety one. You now look at the corona, I mean we don't oh, but the corona virus. You know our main economic and geopolitical sort of arrival is now dealing with a potentially like world historic outbreak. Just at a moment when it could help America economically, that investments freezes there. You know it's not anything any rational. Person would want to see. But politics is about weird, sometimes horrible, dumb, lock that people get that have lived literally thing to do with anything that they do or anything that they ve done. But just you know, changes the political realities on the ground and means that you know when your George H double we're running in nineteen. Eighty eight people,
feeling good, because the Soviet Union is- has collapsed, but it's sort of falling to pieces and like suing for pursuing for peace and waving a white flag, economically and geopolitical, and with that we will bring this to a close. So for Christine Rosen, no Rossman Ringwald, I'm John words keep cavalry.
Transcript generated on 2020-02-25.