« Commentary Magazine Podcast

The Politics of a Pandemic

2020-03-31 | 🔗
Steve Kornacki, author, journalist, and national political correspondent for NBC News, joins the Commentary podcast to talk about politics in a time of pandemic. Are there any historical models that provide some guidance for analysts forecasting the events of 2020? How can Joe Biden navigate this moment? Does Donald Trump have a chance in November? Will we even be able to refer to this crisis in the past tense by Election Day? Tune in for answers to these questions and more.
This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
Welcome to the Commentary magazine Daily Podcast, I'm John Pub words, the editor of commentary with me is always senior editor, a reward high aim, I jump you rather perceive Rosen High, Christine John, Sociedad nor Rossman high Noah John and joining us today are PAL Steve, Cornet from MSNBC World's greatest election night. Impresario the if you were, if you haven't watched, Steve work the board and count them,
odds and all that it is one of the great treats of a vow of all time. Steve thanks so much for joy, ass extra for coming here- and I hope will the chance to work that border a bit more. This year will set up so Steve. I wanted to say you know you, were you written you written Europe, your first book on sort of that ninety, how the Ninetys were a precursor to the to the politics of twenty. Sixteen and beyond the serve the Gingrich, the Gingrich shot. Clinton fights and various other sorts of things, and you are a real student of american political history of relatively recent vintage. Of course, one of the reasons that we study political history if we try to get ourselves of a first on previous elections patterns, all of that is to have insight into the present so that we have some analogies for
What's going on, it seems to me that met further, maybe, with the exception of you, know the fall of the Berlin Wall and the end of cot there. There is no analogy to the present political situation that we are there For the lessons of here we are flying line. Does that says that strike you as well yeah? That's that's pretty much how I feel about it. Of course it it doesn't stop from spending hours a day kind of ruminating on what might be the actual. Daryl, Helsing and going through the yummy, the ones? I think the ones that kind of my minder are probably the ones that they go through your mind? To I mean nine hundred and eleven. Obviously he was the first one you can think of, and some obvious differences were immediately after nine slash, eleven or very quickly after nine slash eleven. There was a nationalistic to just get back on our feet, and you know here it sits, waiting and waiting and waiting
just a fundamental difference there, but I do think in a nine eleven that the formative sort of you no political education for me was the early ninety nineties when I started out as it really is a kid following policy. And always maybe you see the fall of the Berlin Wall, the end of the Soviet Empire and ninety ninety one interest at the end of the cold war, and also in that period you know, but junior leading the Gulf WAR and ninety one- and I remember it's about the time I started following politics. I can remember my very first political memories are people talking about George Bush Senior was totally invincible politically, because how could you are going? You be the president who overseas all of that needs these running for re election. Of course he is getting thirty. Eight percent of the vote so. Yeah, I guess where my mind is on this right now. Just to the politics of this is over we don't know, but I'm
find a remembering. There are examples of leaders who have led countries through great triumphs and and have been immediately punished at the polls and urban eaters. Through a horrible times like nine eleven and out in bushes, able to wait a second term sentence. If that's the roots of what kind of ruminating in my head, I guess what so lets them. Let's talk about something that that that also might have no no precedent just serve move into raw twenty twenty politics, which we haven't been doing, that much of obviously the Democratic Party nominating process has been frozen in place in a way that were not that we have no precedent for but Biden is, has got wasn't like close to twelve hunt.
Delegates he's a sixty percent of the way. There are some like that, and I think what is it like that there would have to be like a forty percent flit in the polling for Sanders, assuming that there is ever voted hummed or how the votes will be done for Sanders actually turn to two lap him in and the nomination so that that seems highly unlikely, but I guess there to them. There are two issues going on right, one of which is this some out of nowhere idea that somehow mystically democratic powers that be are going to discard Biden in favour of Andrew Como And then the other being how on earth the Democrats gonna have a convention and will it matter if they don't or what kind of virtual convention, they have. So maybe, if we serve to talk about the convention
she'll itself. Like we ve gone from, we went from a real possibility. There would be some kind of a brokered convention when there were five viable candidates. President, just two months ago to bind, was walking into the nomination first of a Sanders. Gonna watch them an accident had the hen fourteen hours later bibles walk into the nomination, so the convention looked like it was maybe gotta be something very serious and very import. End and am novel that there hadn't been anything like it since nineteen fifty two and now there won't be a there, may not be a convention at all. Does it matter if there's not a convention in terms of the democratic parties? Own process, you, I wonder about it
when I was talking to somebody the other day, who is supposed to be an alternate delegate at the convention and said nodded and plan to go in Milwaukee. Just assuming this is this is not going to happen and that it will be some kind of you know. The actual mechanism of nominating the candidate would take place on line and they'll find some way of having some approximation of acceptance replied. He I wonder I am. I think, that a twenty sixteen a little bit here and the republican convention- and I I just remember how In the moment, the trunk convention in Cleveland how, in the moment there was all this talk, that it was a disaster, all the normal things that you had at conventions with it shows, of unity and easier than the speech itself was a little odd and there wasn't much energy and all these issues missing, there wasn't much of a noticeable pull bounced for Trump and it was. It was the example, one of six thousand of the things we were told and twenty sixteen we're just you know reasons Trump couldn't
when it turned out not a matter? So I do wonder if there's a you know we, it was a bigger lesson. Thereabout overstating the importance of these things, and then it could be fined for Democrats. I think that the main thing for Democrats, though, is they are very lucky that this Biden Sanders thing has sorted itself out as relatively neatly as it has when you think back. I can't within a month ago now after Nevada Sanders winning, you had the prospect, then of of maybe sanders running away with it, but also the prospect of Sanders winning five states Biden, winning five states, maybe Buddha Human, the prospect of peace that total mess you were talking about. Can you imagine if we go into this corona virus shut down. Where you had, you know four candidates with winning multiple states and legitimate claims. The nomination at least Democrats right now it is it's not official, but you can near Biden, has won what ten at last eleven prime
something like that. I think we all know where it's heading and I think it's put them in a a place. It's a little bit more unified, then than they would have been at this point up differently Imagine a Bernie Sanders Basement Bunker press conferences. We'd have to endure, were it not the case with it, so efforts such as establish what the outcome is gonna be, but we don't really know how we get their right and we may never know so. After a super Tuesday, everything has pretty much asterisks after right. The data is not really reliable. We can't we can't. We can look at the turn out rates. At the end of this month or the beginning of this month and compare them twenty sixteen or two thousand for any other election right. The zero there's always gonna be an asterisk after twenty twenty, which renders the data pretty much useless as something predictive right. What I think there's a bigger possibility here that this is a turning point for was the thing that we stay right. It did he get into my
like this and you can have things that were changing the accelerate, and I think that might be the thing with how we vote there's been. This change over time many years were, has been an evolution, especially in the western states, towards mail in voting unit towards not having Traditional single day go to your local precinct in a pull the lever voting early voting. All these sorts of things I think now, that's rapidly massively accelerating so the democratic primaries has been pushed back to June, a lot of them at the Jew. Now I'm seeing a lot of mail in their I'm seeing state right now preparing for the possibility of basically saying states have traditionally were restrictive in allowing absentee voting are now talking about defining sickness, as anybody who is in a state that has a single corona virus can is and therefore allowing absentee vote universal absentee voting. This fall potentially for the general election egg is the kind of thing we're if we get into it in twenty twenty on a widespread scale, much more wise britzska. I think that might just be the new normal going forward. I think we might just as well
twenty twenty with election day here, the traditional sort of election day being kind obsolete. I have asked letting is that when you consider that that there was a whole thing as the Biden surge started where there this idea that early voting might be invalidating itself because people had cast votes to early and had misunderstood what the political dynamic was gonna, be on the day of the primaries in their states and had thrown there away on Bloomberg or or on Sanders Summit that, if they really, as is a psychological thing we know about what I wanted to vote for the winner in order to show solidarity with the party and all that- and here are now baby shifting radically in the other direction, because I would have thought you know absent.
As there would be a real argument to be made that early voting had gone too far, and that and that particularly in Say California Sanders. Only one in California. I believe because of the early vote I maybe em. Maybe I am. I got worse he can. Our Biden got a lot closer than anybody thought he was going to because of the day of voting, and here we are like. That's that's how fast everything is turn them on this time. But but don't you think that even now, if we do sort of go full board and in that direction, hinted absentee voting, but not that both those criticisms will remain. In fact, will probably be exacerbated his will to feed the political instability of will. Now. No one knows what's happening with our vote now. Anything can be sort of manipulated and you know, contribute to that whole serve. You know view of of distrustful institutions in Lebanon and pulling just becomes like
virtually irrelevant, because I don't know I don't you know the one weird thing about polling is: if the entire countries sheltering in place phone pulling becomes accurate teams, talking on the phone again refugees, but if it alone over it, ass just open for a month and unhappy forecasts up after on that data, there's there's an illegitimate I think the point erasing was a legitimate one that, like the early voting model, doesn't necessarily fit sequential presidential primary model where you know, if you have a really voting it opens up before New Hampshire in California and fight. Candidates are actually the raised by time you get the California, I think. That's it. That's a legit.
That issue, and I wonder if that might still be mitigated in the future, but I think in terms of the general election, if you're looking at what what these states seem to be moving towards right now for this year. I feel that might be one that once you get it, you know China once you get that the toothpaste out of the tube on that one might not people who put it back in and arguably one nightmare scenario about the primary season, which is that these are primaries, have been postponed right so by oh hi, o Pennsylvania couple other places and of course we don't know what the pattern of the virus is. Gonna be. What if you know a state is like deeply sheltering in place and they do a male and vote who's. Gonna count it. How do you socially distance speech sitting in a room? Counting? Three million ballots: I mean that you know a New York's, how many people both new Vote- Newark State- I mean- maybe nobody o, because it's weird cause we separate them-
essential primarily from the from the other primaries here, but the substantial criticism. The really voting is that you are voting with based on and the lack of information. You haven't imperfect in from amount of information, because events happened all the way up to the election they so we had a general a national mail in bone in general election. Twenty. Sixteen, a lot of people would cast their vote in between the access, Hollywood, video and the James call me. Which would have resulted in an alternate history and altering the timeline in which a lot of things happened that that have an avid get. So I mean that voters who cast their ballot before that letter came out with six severely resent the lack of. Are they the though the inability to go back and revise their views based on new information, the end at the October, surprise and others right. This is her, so so you want so there s a temper surprise. We want a catholic launchers surprise when you get it instead of trying to time it, because what the question about Bernie Sanders right now
because we're talking? We are, I think, appropriately talking about Biden as the presumptive nominee, but why has Bernie then not gone along, That's right, we're in a moment of national crisis. He has an opportunity here to step up and say: look, you know we ve. We fought together. But clearly we need to rally round Biden, because since the day he knows what the Poli was looking like in that states that are moving their primary suggesting. What is is endgame ice. I know I asked this all the time, because I really honestly one and get some insight into this. What is he going to do with all those loyal followers I mean they are east, can still rally his folks particularly online and caused a lot of mischief and it is disrupted convention us if he wants to what. Where do you all think he's headed Who knows I mean, I think it doesn't really matter. One of the things here is none of none of any of these classic calculations made me,
we are in a so nobody cares what's going on with Sanders. I want you to know. I care him. The reason lies with our intention pain, obituary in the back into the whip. Yes, but I am not able to publish. Does he won't? Let me when I would see that now that strong, that is a self interest. That's the whole point you have if you have a deep self interest here. This is movement still matters easier for a burning from its men always does it. You know what I think: I've yeah thematic knows responses the answer to Christine's question. He doesn't want it to be written off. He doesn't. He doesn't want to be counted out of this thing any. Doesn't he it as long as he can garner the troops to apply pressure for his
You know his issues and and his approach than that them then host they entered the heart attack, wasn't gonna stop and this isn't going to stop them everything everything a movement it by definition cannot end, but there is still not yet a one thing, I would just say, as you know in it, look who knows now for even gonna have any, as we say, any traditional primaries arrest the way, but the one thing that now differ from sixteen with him, but I think he's gotta be careful of is in sixteen. He was in a spot where we knew he was not going to be the nominee, but week to week he was still winning primaries. Every single week. His campaign could point to a state and say we're gonna to win this, and then they would win it and it was taught to tell it can a candidate who was still winning states to gather the rates. Namibia,
same thing with with he'll arena, weighed against Obama, even when it was clear, she wasn't gonna be denominate, she was still winning states and, I think, just short of almost psychologically you see liking. You are treated as a much more powerful and relevant force if you're winning stays in. I think the risk for Sanders here. There were three new polls that came out this week. Sanders Biden, one on one. I mean it's two to one now internationally, so basically sixty two thirty Biden over centres in the risk there is yet you know it just start getting blown out state after state and you start looking smaller and on any start it becomes, must easier for Democrats to write, em, often dismissed him and say hey. This guy was never quite as powerful as we thought he was what it really was in. Sixteen was. He was sort of the depository for rub aunt, I Hilary sentiment and
he'd, take Hilary out of the picture and not nearly as big a force. Will you know it's interesting because he had this is this? Is the Herald staff civilization of him right? He turns into a in others, Harold Stassen and forty eight a serious candidate for for present, and then you just can't ever not run after that, and so each successive race, and by the end he is a serb laugh. I dunno he ran six times or seven times and became a laughing stock before before he died out. They get Santos, obviously that trade but I also think I mean I just wonder whether Sanders that's sanders. People are sitting there saying, as people have said, sort of okay. Well, you know what, if something happens, you know what if Biden gets them
Iris. What if by really start seeming as though his you know he's slipped. The you know he's at his mental acuity is an and there are still there still there still two months until the nominating convention and if, if he's not there sitting there, ah, how does he reactivate himself, like maybe just maybe he's just there as the hail Mary, but that gets to the other thing I wanted to ask, which is this thing they that data, though the political fanciful political idea, the moment which is boy Andrew. More than eighty seven percent rule rating in New York, any self anti it out he so great and like we should. We should ditch by Democrats, should ditch Biden and Tick Sanders after twelve million people have already voted for by. This is not right in minutes,
Therefore, this is not you know. Maybe a party that wasn't so fixated on every vote counts thing and one man, one vote and every vote and dont suppress the vote, and every thing is the vote. Maybe they could? Maybe that party could throw one candidate out in favour of a lot of of another, but you can't. You can't take. The nomination away from a guy with twelve million votes is one. What is it one I don't remember now. Fourteen states he's doing is doing better than Hilary did in sixteen farm. I mean so I'm right that this is there something. May. I just strikes me as a kind of thing that people do when they nothing about you know they come up with these lunatic out. You don't would be. Eight of Andrew Quarrel with Germany, so in ill happen or some. If you go with you,
to me like that that was, I love the m. The irony that it was Mario COM our generation ago, who would not actually run for president, but then it would be all these scenarios Layton up- and I remember in the late in the ninety two primary season, when everything Bill Clinton couldn't get elected. There were still draft Mario Cuomo talking. Five thousand and ninety two around the time the New York primary. Now you Andrew, gets a 2in corset Andrew and, I think, has an interest in being presidential sort of abstractly. He has a strong loyalty to Biden Biden to Dad's for him in his twenties. It is a twenty eighteen primary. If Andrew had gotten in the race, though, and run before. All of this, would have been J easily. He would have been John taken Cooper. You would have been the guy on the edge of the stage on you know, night to the twenty kinda thing. Getting in half a percent is appalling, and yet now this this trend, I agree, I don't think it's going anywhere, although you mention to the sort of that at the
as for the under the radar chatter about Biden irony about Digest, it does remind me I can remember late in the await campaign. Quinton Hillary Clinton versus Obama. When, again it was clear but I was gonna, be the nominee and they asked Hillary Clinton. The question: why are you still staying in the race and she said publicly? Well, you know Bobby Kennedy was shot in June, while I mean to to play some. You know he'd, like historical without jeopardy orbit whatever. Ah, this is in your, but your book that you know Clint, like Biden, is eight startlingly strong nominee like it. If we had been watching this so gradually and seen that he did when the first three primaries Clinton one two of the first ten was it so
like that. Yeah I mean was literally Bill Clinton didn't when New Hampshire and that an end, yet no one knows no one knows even when New Hampshire cause. He was the come back here, because, given everything that happened, he should come and eighth and he and he didn't or something like that. But I mean it was crazy, like He was an incredibly weak front, where I mean was incredibly weak nominee, but everybody ran on Monday, and then it was him and joy. Brown, who was a bit of a lunatic risk? like a bit of a lunatic, so he was the only rational choice made by after Super Tuesday Biden that you now would bide net was it you know whether what does that happened before didn't happen? To me, ain't didn't happen to trumpet
It happened to ebb. Obama didn't happen to anybody, but it happened with Biden who actually solidified the race after three we two weeks of voting three weeks. The fourth contest it was shot Emmeline and if I may add that that's the weird thing about, Is that ok yeah? You take one. Ninety two cling. Didn't we New Hampshire, but you say he Secondly, and he got a really call me come back here, he got a moral victory at an answer by thirty percent. In New Hampshire, I mean Biden Gap beer in Iowa, buried in New Hampshire, buried in Nevada and then it was well it didn't happen in any gets the three percent in South Carolina and he's winning states and superstitious Emmy he's it it's this evening, I've never seen the candidate who was absolutely be an f
the thought in the early stage, suddenly become the overwhelming dominant winner on the foot of a switch. So looking for I had two November and how this crisis will affect voter preferences. You mention you know the governors who were in after thought in the race and are now much more permanent and much more, some of whom are much more effective in their role as governor than they were as as primary candidates, and I wonder just the extent to which I mean Joe Biden brand is really just being boring right, like his his his sort of page, I suppose, without saying it outright is in I'll I'll, keep all the good stuff
economy, you like everything else you like, but up without the tweets, without the noise, without the nonsense, and now he is his job as is really just to exist, but he can actually make a case for himself. He just has to be present and and sort of viable, but at what do? How to voters reacting in a crisis like this is. Will they say you know, that's enough, that the noises woolly will they stomach the noise in deference to the moment in saying, ok? Well, there is actually a lot more to this Dublin just being a figure hadn't somebody who can talk and somebody who can who can common, soothe nervous actually have to be an executive, does Joe Biden have a record that he can run on their? I owe it to me it's it were saying at the beginning. There is no great parallel here and it's so much has to do with what we don't know how virus this virus gonna play out, but you know how long is this going to go on for how the public react to it? Has a public reactor
trumps. Leadership of I sense with Trump there's been this. This politically there's been this eagerness to get back onto obviously talks about originally talked about may be trying to get out of it by Easter, and you know he has the sense of this great economy He was gonna, run out and is unable to do any more, but It was a certain year old girl in an ad hoc pair, I believe, have been killed and nine eleven and bushes at manner at an event and hugged you're in there was a picture of it and she's talking at the end of the ad, and she says, he's the most powerful man in the world and the only thing he cares about keeping me safe, and I think that that
Inukami was not great and you had nine hundred and eleven we went over. The war was not going great. I a member that and the ad that always stuck with me in two thousand and four, and it wasn't with the at itself, and it was the broader message that I think connected was a thirteen year old girl in an ad aspera. I believe they've been killed in nine hundred and eleven and bullshitted matter at an event and hugged her, and there was a picture of it. And she's talking at the end of the ad, and she says he's the most powerful men in the world and the only thing he cares about is keeping me safe, and I think that that's ultimately will connect you know for that that there was still this overhang of nine eleven. This when is the next to TAT, coming this just real sort of anxious insecurity in the country and the idea that Bush, ultimately, even if you didn't like him, if you like the war, ultimately he was gonna, keep you say from another attack
think that's what got him over the top and oh for, as I wonder if this thing is still raging in the fall, if there is an opportunity, therefore trumped up to ITALY trumped totally different that pushing everybody out. That's that's. Why Mason. I might ass well either literally in two thousand and four, the Bush campaign decided after the convention that he was going to make a series of speeches about nine eleven in the aftermath of began on the anniversary of nine eleven in two thousand and four, and I believe you made five speeches each dealing with a different. Aspect of America, nine eleven it so he wanted to where there was a whole idea that maybe it would be a mistake for him to remind people of nine eleven because Eleven commissioner said that he had Miss handled it and because it was
four years earlier and because we were we've moved on, we were dealing with the rock and all of that and their insight was. They wanted to remind people of the moment where he seemed to have risen to the challenge and that that was something implicitly that I guess he could do it again in a crisis, and then you saw this poll number of his creep up from four thousand five hundred and forty six to fifty one, and then he got fifty one percent of the vote, the approval rating you know just before the election and of course, if Trump can in the fall somehow look back on the winter, and
bring in early summer and say I did it, I ve helped or what I did may the measurable difference. Not only will we have something run on, he will also when I say I mean you know it if he has applied the argument in it, but the problem with that argument. I think it's also that problem I've been having with his war time president metaphor that he's been trotting out here and there in trying to her to work, I think unsuccessfully, is that there was this asp Two: nine eleven, where the war, no matter how badly prosecuted you might have thought it was, was an act of avenging the deaths of Americans and there was a sense, whence it wasn't just rally behind the flag, a lot of people who had otherwise not thought about it, including peers of mine, who then signed up and enlisted and fought in a war that they never thought they were never see in their lifetimes. That doesn't exist with the virus. How do you avenge the deaths of hundreds of them?
of Americans from a virus? How do you rally people around something that is not a common enemy? It's it's it's a virus. I do think that I mean it's possible for a leader to find a way to talk about that. We ve seen leaders in the past talk about epidemics and in that way, but trumped doesn't strike me as having that capacity is a leader of, and also, I think, whatever the outcome of the virus is, I think will probably be, politically speaking, insufficiently conclusive to say one way or the other this we he he acted too tubes to savour
an extraordinary number of lives. These changes minded enough time or we be grossly under reacted and we could have saved moralized and big. I think the counter to two trump after this will bull will consist exclusively of attacks about the virus. Vitamin no one's gonna be attacking him about Russia, anymore or Ukraine right or the tweeted. Its deep, the case is gonna, be met, no matter what
there's there's going to be enough room that the case against him is. It is going to be his insufficient leadership during this rain. Take me also, your neighbour is money more. What we don't hang out, though we talking about it in the past tense. If there's that by writers are correct, then there's gonna be a secondary, smaller, but nevertheless terrifying spike. When the fall, when things start to cool off and at which point it will be a very active crisis, so is it you can't politicized this ongoing crisis, or will it be? This ongoing crisis is a complete disaster and its ultra model will Stevie now I said I think, on yesterday's park, Hasta Fridays, of something like that You know if, in nineteen forty four things have gone badly for Roosevelt now, if, if they did, evasion had been like that one in nineteen. Eighty or something like that, I I you know you can see a circumstance in which, even though he was a wartime pray
then we were all rallied around the flag and all that he might not have survived it, and you, you said to begin to pack, has there was our histories of other lessons? Are people who, with great triumphs and then get punished at the polls, like Winston Churchill? Obviously right and I mean the greatest examples- was ok we're done it's time to have a socialist country now or or the opposite, or people who aren't blamed by the public for the calamity that has has has has rather than men and prefer to have. What would you like prefer to have a continuity in the midst of a crisis that dump, when a thousand here are the valiant right, so those are the two possible Biden is different from some because I think he had. This is He did for a year right, as he can say. I did a lot of this, whether he did or not. Ok, I
a lot of this stuff. You know we did the Bola, we save the world from of Allah, we had the pandemic in a war, Dame that were weak, wanted to teach the Trump people and they didn't listen. We were on time but this and if we ve been in power, we would have handled better, and so I can will it better when it happens again, that's a more powerful that would strike me, then them then you know sanders, talking about millet, millionaires and Billy nurse in November, yet wit will whether it Bernie Sanders or, if you think, of other directions, democratically have gone if they gone with, yeah it Buddha Judge, somebody had been a mayor of a city of a hundred thousand people. That was his big credential. I mean yes it to the extent that what is holding democratic back,
in November, ends up being apprehension about the idea of changing making a change at the top with potentially second wave of virus going on you, you, you would think I agree, I think, by non paper. That makes a lot of sense that this is somebody but former vice president former to term vice president somebody in the Senate, so many people are very very familiar with my think. There is a certain going into this there's a certain comfort level with it competence. I think that the polling shows is there, so I agree with that yeah and I also mean the other. I take one of the other models. I I I play with where these are all imperfect, inexact. We can stick to this. We did it thought not one that I play with them. I had it is, is Jimmy Carter. You know from nineteen eighty in IRAN in the embassy siege. You looked at his polemics numbers went up? Obviously, significantly. I think you would have lost the democratic primary to TED Kennedy if it hadn't for the the embassy, seemingly only nine? Instead, he gets to you here
races, the rose garden strategy will even go out. Campaign gets through to primary, but it comes back at it. It lingers everything else. Kind of comes back to the fore no inflation all that needs of gettin gettin wiped out I'm August at their there's. You can look at that and say what trump too he's gotta me I'd say a three point uptake and the poor right now. But if this does linger in you know It could turn around on him too. I could see that is well, I mean look there. The main thing is you picture the beginning, as this was that this was the serb source idea behind. Might my book hell ride? Is that in March of ninety one, when the Gulf WAR was over George over George Bush? Was it not got it all rating of ninety one percent, and and then, eighteen months later he got thirty. Eight percent of the votes of whatever the polling is today bears no relation to help. The public is gonna. Think of of Bush in in November a bush trump I'll, be there. There is
there's no reason to think that not only is pulling not predictive, but it's really not predictive, because we have everything in flux where the economy in flux have we have our health in flux? We have the nature that we have the international situation. Flocks and- and you know, of one of the things that that no has been concerned about is the question of whether or not there is gonna. Be domestic discord. You know that that that there really is going to be a world in which there are gonna, be people who say you have imprison me and I can't live like this, and all politicians. Have you know that we are now living in a fascist state and I can't live like this and then you'll have everyone is saying: no, your kill. If you go out, you're gonna kill my children and my grandmother and, and who knows you know, I mean that's something
You know there is no predictable is as long as the along the lights are on. The water is running the stores or full awful there's. No one armor personal carriers on the streets, you really don't have to worry about that much, but that's today and we're forecasting into four six eight ten weeks into the fire each year with the prospect of a third of America out of work. That's unsustainable and the stratification of society that you're envisioning there were two thirds of society is ok. Still drawing check pretty secure. And shaming, morally everybody else around them around a third of people who are the absolute precarious who don't know what the next week will bring our terrified of what the next week will bring. However, thou aspect will bring some people out of their homes and into the streets what they do, their I'm, not sure, but even guarantee they will not stay self isolated. Ok, but
there is this two trillion dollar relief bill and it did pass, and I've already heard from a friend of mine who was wife, was followed that the supports in the end the bill suggest she will end up with at an o eighty percent of her of her take on pay. Coming to her through this. How now? How are the unemployment? The enhanced unemployment system works? So you are gonna? Have the so all this, if you are going to have. Far more social support than any downturn has ever seen, and you know if, if it, if the public feels like This is just a temporary body blow and not like the financial meltdown, when you really didn't No, whether the economy was ever gonna come back or you know then, and the whole thing with your your house being underwater cause. You were trapped in your mortgage was bull in Europe,
here are just will re mortgage was ballooning and you couldn't sell your home because no one would buy it and if you sold it, you would owe to under thousand dollars on it. Anyway. That's not happening here so there is that there is a mitigating effect that trump and politicians should be able to depend on a little bit that they they acted even though right and we feel like they didn't act that quickly it's not gonna, feel like that in July or August, it's like well, it happened in March, the virus I dont want it. I dont want to dominate the thing, but possibly Emulous is a completely do it's an upside down crisis from two thousand eight that had the top first and then trickled down view of your homeowner business owner is generally gonna, be ok, most likely, but the people who are gonna hit be hit. First, are the most vulnerable who live paycheck to paycheck, who don't have a lot of solid assets? And I don't I don't think they feel especially taken care of right now,
well. I ran away. Those are the people that that's Bernice moment right. Those are the people who he was appealing to you throughout this primary, but there also, I mean they're, also the ones who are I mean look we were talking before we started recording about in a whole foods. Workers are walking, there's a walk out today for some grocery store workers there are other Emily on site workers who do the same thing now there's their claim is that they should you getting a little more money and a lot more protective equipment, so it is again. This is a very contained type of of protest, but I do agree with me
no against very, very dark on this. On a subject that I haven't, that's useful because we should be thinking eight when we look at the public health implications, eight and twelve weeks from now. We should also be thinking of social unrest. In those same terms, truckers forget, or having difficulty finding places to eat and to Russia and to relieve themselves that's the supply chain. Well, I'm not I'm, not I'm, not the unjust, saying that more action has been taken of the six trillion dollars in direct in in federal relief. If you add in liquidity from the FED Ray really fast. I mean I just don't think we should act that we should think that that's not gonna have positive consequences. That's all. I know people getting their tax when when are the at once the average American gonna get that check. That's what I was cured. What what? What's that sort of weak? I think I think that I think I think
starts now, as in the next few weeks and numbers, and then you have the everybody under who does not make. Who makes my good idea. Lozier under at under households are gonna get a thirty four hundred died of household? Affords me get a thirty four hundred dollar checks. The government, conveniently by the way, signed by Donald Tramp tramp tat he certainly will be it make use of that on the candy Andrea. So I don't know trouble now, I'm not I'm not I'm not discounting the darkness, I'm just saying that their resources are being brought to bear to make a bit of a difference. I think I mean I am not a not even that thrilled with the bill myself, but who knows I mean. They. They they ask, they did act in a again watching granule. You were like, oh my god. What are the Democrats doing what's going on? Why is what you know how this is all going to fall apart, but then so was for extra days, and then the bill was passed and and and
We're gonna start start flung. Any these numbers are gonna, be horrendous. What a dead Goldman Sachs here this morning that there can be a thirty four thirty four percent drop in GDP in the south. Quarter. Thirty four percent, which annualized six, but it's not as bad as it looks like they- are now there now suggesting that if their projections are right, that the annual decline would be a six percent hid in in GDP, which is way better than I would have thought of was gonna, be and maybe overly optimistic, but I do know so Steve unapplied array, tobacco, Steve RE, reveal that the unemployment rate, I think I saw TAT it- was forecasts to be higher than the peak of the great depression and wouldn't running for re election on those numbers, ain't gonna be easy, even if nobody blames you for them, but that means that in that becomes
question I mean it is in all of our calculations, about where the unemployment rate you know needs to be. Four trumped up shot her or where the growth rate need all of that the historical models. I just that's where I start to say: there's no real precedent. You know if, if he's, if, if, if we ve all collectively made a decision, to shut down our society and to shut down our economy in the name of not killing people, and it comes with mass Why am I dont know what the political conflict it is about of that, aren't I even wonder if there an egg, even wonder if there is an opportunity there, politically speaking, for a president, a sort of to show to show and get credit for leadership. I do not think it would be an opportunity for a leader to do that. I dont know if Trump is that leader of trumpets capable of doing that, but I think it's it if you just look at historically
president overseeing fifteen percent unemployment, or something like that is gonna, lose all fifty states and it will have a glance light but sure, maybe not, but if the unemployment is due to a flood, if you're the governor of Pennsylvania, the Jones have fled, the Johnstone flood happens to blame The governor of Pennsylvania are the only thing I I've come up with. Is this idea that this year is going to be so painful that people are going to want to turn the page from Trump, regardless that it's not good, that he will not be a figure of comfort? Which is why which was able to prejudge s eyes, I virtuously shares Association yet with it with it, but often also template mentally he's, not the most comforting figure Albert nobody, but let's say that he is very comforting enough to enough people it still gonna be like. I just want to look at him anymore. I just can't you know like I need. I need something else. You know this is just a need for some
thus our living in New York in aware were now were now heading into weak, three or four of this solitude and social. Isolation and when it comes to know Oklahoma in Kansas, in places like dad, as I assume it's going to, I mean this is not easy, it's really monodist at a certain point, Joe Biden, does have to demonstrate in out some proof of concept here right. I can't. He is essentially saying we know what I would do differently is get everybody together and do something: that's not gonna. That's not gonna work right at the really will mean that it has not changed forces in midstream here effect by your gambits March, its March thirty first Also, I mean not now to be like to market. Leonora. You know like a bloodless about this, but this
A notion he needs do something now, it seems to me is: is it is crazy out settling back right that eventually, at some point he can't does exist and said I am the man you remember that its relative, relatively recent Vince, it's that there wasn't a pause moment during an election year after the after the candidates were or were were settled right. It was a bomb. I think who can a change that in two thousand and twelve I'm going after wronged me in the spring. That was a new thing. Like idea was the novel.
Is all settled themselves that are then there was like a tour three month period, which everybody went out, raise money like crazy kind of kept quiet because they didn't want to make everybody sick with politics. Obviously we don't live like that anymore. I think, there's anything their sister, a real in a sort of basic, almost structural question here, of what the campaigns gonna look like. What are the key moments? Gonna, be we mention the conventions at the beginning. Are they're gonna, be conventions? Is there going to be a nationally televised address? Were Biden gets to lay out to the country? You know this is how would be different under me? What would that address? Look like? Are there going to be debates in the general election in it? That was already a bit of a question, but I think I see now it's it's more of a question. What are the opportunities the Joe Biden is going to have to be in the spotlight into show people? This is how it's going to be different and then I think the question with him. I've said this should beginning, I do know back in early twenty nineteen and he got in a race. My biggest issue, with Biden just in terms of his viability, was not
old Senate votes. It was not what he said about busting in nineteen. Seventy six. It was a performance on the campaign trail and you can't it now. Look I I I watch that debate with Bernie Sanders. You know what two weeks ago, just as it was unfolding where they were Pino ten feet apart in the studio and that very strange debate, I thought that Suited Biden's very well My my reader Biden is that in those moments, when there's a lot action happening on this page. There's a lot of incoming and he's he's kind of got to think on his feet, and he I think he gets really keyed up and I think that's when he struggles of the canoe cater, and I think in that setting was sanders. Work was very subdued. Where was very calm and he was, I think, that's suited him extremely well, and I think if he gets the campaign like that in the general election, that's going to help him. I think if you get them on into base stage with Trump and Trump is pulling the stuff you did with Hillary in twenty sixteen and Andy get Biden riled up, I wonder how that looks. I wonder what it, what kind of
that prompts, but but the more he gets to be sort of. I think in limited view, and in the circumstances where you see him, he gets to be very low key in very subdued. I think that place to a strength at this point and the presence and absence of an audience fraud like matter play no audience probably her. Why would why would from guarantee earth consented to even do that kind of debate? Well, what did I not, but he may have to I mean you know who you don't know where you I can't we don't know where the numbers are gonna be Biden could be up by ten and at the beginning of October, needed debate. You know I mean that that's this whole notion that that's Trump is, is the one with all playing at will, The cards, I think, is a is a delusion of the moment in this is whatever happens. We have to presume this will be a close election and trample have a real trouble ever though
a real opportunity were trumped, could lose and he's gonna have to respond to the politics of the moment and he's also not going to be able to simply pick and choose. Is you know his his spots, but you know again with a Helma Steve Chronology. Thank you. So much for fur for joining us. I want to thank the listeners, continue to write in it to pass the counter amazing that combat sing such nice things again. We appreciate it more than you can possibly know in this moment of isolation, to know that you're enjoying it and that you find comfort in it and that you find community in it. All of that
in the end we will endeavour to keep you were entertained. Although I don't how're comforting, we are rushing veracity and them and you can't see no up right now, but no, I know I know it has a very fond of expression on his face. Buried, wanted very lines. Do that, for your benefit guidance to Steve again. Thank you so much. Thank you very quickly. Great and for aid Christine and no one John upwards gave the camel burnt
Transcript generated on 2020-08-04.