Today's podcast features a cautious victory lap from the crew—who pretty much predicted the slapstick collapse of Joe Biden and the Democrats yesterday on Capitol Hill. The lap is cautious because we still can't quite believe they're as bad at this as they look. Give a listen.
This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
Some guy, Welcome to the Commentary Magazine Daily Podcast today's Friday October, twenty ninth, twenty twenty one jump up towards the editor of Commentary magazine with me is always executive. Editor, a green Waldheim, Hydra Senor, rather Christine rows of high Christine, an associate editor nor Rossman high. Now I just so, we said.
That there would be no deal yesterday and there was no deal yesterday and we ve been saying for weeks that we understand the enthusiasm or the certainty expressed by a lot of political advisers, analysts and the press that there would be a deal and on infrastructure and on the build back better plan, since there is no plan now there's something more resembling a plan, at least a White House freight document explaining what the White House wants, But nothing written tax was written. All of that, in an ordinary atmosphere which same atmosphere or more ordinary atmosphere in which we live. previous times, one would say that the that the press was simply death
Really cheerleading for the person for the democratic, the White House, in the same way that they are now what happened yesterday in Capitol Hill would have been viewed as one of the greatest pull the cold disasters self inflicted political wounds. our time and everybody to move on very quickly you from it, even as it was going on Nancy Policy was gonna win votes. She was gonna have a vote. Then she wasn't than she was than this. One said that no one said the other thing in and that an end, and so on astonishing display of political incompetence, internal divisions in the governing coalition and out of touch president a confused
Speaker of the house, a completely absent Senate majority leader. This is also being we're a lotta bs. I mean you know the ministers there is such a grand fog thrown up yesterday morning about you know being on the verge, having a breakthrough and stories about Biden, getting a standing ovation Ando? What's different this time, as you know, he came down and he said: look you gotta do this and you know is like so much hype. And right to say so and now I just want to caution people that now there was no vote, because the progressive carcasses met in in the house refused said. Look if you ve ever gonna vote.
on the heart trillion dollar hard infrastructure bill, we're going to vote it down, it's going to happen, we're going to go to down so now it's scheduled for next week. What's going to happen next week, I don't understand the head of the caucus. Pramila Jayapal basically said we'll vote for it next week will, if she would vote for it next week, why won't you vote for it today? What's going to happen, that's different between now and next week. Do they think they really think somehow that the very same senators, mansion and cinema who wouldn't you know who were, who have been served controlling the discussion without ever thing that they would support the bill. They could have said. Yes, they supported the big bang. The Buddha buyback build back big back better bill and they didn't mildly that we should establish. The state of play is were at this recording nine o clock in the morning on Friday,
Friday whenever this is the twenty? Ninth, so progressive or sang look we're compromising. We have compromise, we wanted six trillion one. Unfortunately, I wanted three and a half million. We wanna two trillion now were willing to support one point, five trillion and we will support this. They said the last night you try, appalling progressive caucus had willed will pass this thing, which has a odd considering their behaviour all day yesterday. Nevertheless, as it were, the compromises we just don't want to be fooled again, so what we need from jail. Mentioning and christian Cinema.
curse in Santa Cruz de them. Now you got me play myself that Jason Cinema isn't as some sort of assurance that there are going to pass this thing in the centre and the Senate. We need them to say outright that we support this thing now, as we set a million times there playing block for a number of other senators with cold feet. Nevertheless, they want them on the record, saying working to support this thing and Joe Mansion and some are not doing that being weirdly, coy about it. The saying will you don't take the president's word for it? That's not good enough. What does that say about you? Weird curious ha like why won't they just come out and say they support this compromise bill in an unambiguous language? I would be bleary of that too. If I was a progressive okay, so this doesn't make it again were back in the world in which everything that everybody is doing doesn't make any sense, and therefore you assume that what they're doing makes sense, but you can discern the pattern, serve like
we are studying calculus and you only know algebra sir things going on except maybe not, and one again. I see absolutely no reason to believe that there are going to vote for the bill next week or the infrastructure Bela's doesn't come up next week. We ve heard that this is now the third or fourth go round here. We're we're being told that thing is gonna happen in a few days, couple of hours or whatever and it's not an end, then it doesn't because the order a battle, doesn't change and remember. There is the new entrant in the confusion, and that is Bernie Sanders. Who is urging the house progresses to stand firm to increase the amount of money being spent in the build back, better big social spending bill and to hold the feed to the fire when he could tank. The whole thing here
I'm saying, he'll support it he's saying it's ok with him and that consistency of messaging across all the various competing squabbling. Coalitions means that the leadership is has still not yet to settle on any kind of tone or or consistent message. So I was actually struck by what steady way or said last night, it's like he sounded like someone who's trapped in her in a deeply unsatisfying dysfunctional relationship. He was like where we hurt
No, we were more disappointed. I mean it's just it's hilarious, to read it out. If you ve been following it as closely as we have, they don't really know what they don't seem to know what they should be feeling about. All these many disasters that have been piling up- and I think that speaks to a lack of discipline more broadly in the party and in its notable that a lot of the political analyse this morning are trying to compare the Indies supposedly ineffective freedom, caucus actions and, as we have many times talked about on the podcast, with the super organised, really excellent, you know progressive caucus, which really knows how to get things done. That seems to me to also be a stretch. We're also being told that the reason that the infrastructure build did not pass yesterday or wasn't finally proper vote yesterday by Nancy Blowsy, who said in the morning that she would not only bringing up for a moment it would hold it open meetings. She would not said it
I'm limit of three hour to hour when our time limit on the vote, in order to make sure that there was about cast on it and that everybody had their ability to email, serve whip and talk through okay, so that that I didn't happen now the progressive carcass, and We are saying that the reason that they didn't vote for the bill yesterday or is that the White House didn't ask them to we would have had a victory today if only he meaning the present and asked for one democratic aims set abiden this? According to punch bowl news and promote Jaya, Paul said whereas this hold on. She literally said the same thing. She said I told anybody that would listen that we did not have the votes for and infrastructure vote tonight. The president did not ask for a vote today. I just
want to be very clear about that. The speaker did, but the president did not the president said he wants us to pass both bills and that this coming week was going to be critical. For that, so Pelosi wants the infrastructure building. Biden. Doesn't Biden went to the hill yesterday more and said my presidency is on the line. And then left, and did he give the impression then he didn't care, whether infrastructure, pastor didn't pass. some of this is actually hard to lie. If your listening to me, maybe you can't even sword through the you know, address does announce amusing here between Infrastructure and build back better and all that none of it makes? Any sense was he asked them to vote for it. Restructure, not.
Clearly, people said Biden didn't ask them to cast this vote yesterday. So what happened yesterday? What happened yesterday, as this is a goat rodeo? This is a party incomplete tatters, a governing party income. Plead tatters. So now not only introduce crippling self doubt because we go ahead. The latter wanna be too sanguine about this. I can't understand how they get from a to B. I don't understand how they get from the current position, everybody's recalcitrant and again to passing the bill back better agenda, but they have to so they will. But I dont see but they have no choice. They have two. They must do, but I dont know why so
They have now been held light. Yet the while a lot of our colleagues on the right are are much less sanguine about this. They think could be listening, offing. They will get it. It will transform the american Social compact forever and words whistling pass the graveyard by observing all these machinations of one at the end of the day and we should leave open the possibility that the right, I just don't see how women why I gave it up a six on a scale of one to ten, with ten being that that you know that it definitely that they do we pass it that was earlier in the week, but here said that that's why I want to ask you this. I actually have now honest to God forgotten what it was, who's. Gonna. Ask you now, like standing layer, I'm hurt and disappointed a good like, steady, higher, I'm too old for my job and have the lesson of the reason why I feel like the first of all, I been saying this for a month and a half it gets harder. Every passing our
It got it. They got all measurably more difficult in the beginning of October. It's only got worse and every polling indication that we have out of Virginia suggest em that's gonna be hit in the face. I remember what it was. I wanted to ask himself: we go back to Obamacare, ok, let's say next week, Tuesday in Virginia, the republican Young can wins and the democratic call of losers in the state that bind one by ten a result. It wouldn't quite be as dramatic as the Republican Scott Brown winning Teddy Kennedy sentence. It after Teddy Kennedy died
in at the beginning of twenty ten. Nonetheless, one thing they did happen is it works like this Obama care, pass the Senate in December of two thousand and nine, but the house had not yet passed it and then the earthquake came Scott Brown wins in message
Since this means that the only vote that the that the Senate could take on on a bomb care that would achieve closer, that there are problems could not filibuster, was the vote that the Senate took in December two thousand nine. They couldn't go back to the well, they couldn't revise it. They couldn't do reconciliation where that, where the two bills come together and then you have to vote again, they couldn't do any of that. They just had to pass the Senate version of the bill. The house did not want to do this Nancy Policy, who was then speaker
didn't want to do it. She called it kitty care. She didn't like the Obama Harebell that came out of the Senate, but they had no choice because they realized it was now or never. It was gonna, be there sir. Nothing, and that's that that's the ironic part of what could happen on Tuesday, eight, maybe that a victory of young came the Republican in Virginia. Could it could be so terrifying to Democrats? the sense that they know their toast. Everything is going the wrong way. They better just settle for half a loaf, which is exactly what they ve been refusing to do all along yeah- maybe it's just. I have a hard time thinking of how you overestimate the obstinacy of the progressives. You know
It's like it it's hard for me to imagine them saying. Well, we quote, as a party are in trouble now, so therefore, this we its if we win, we need to get it, get our act together. This man Nor never more likely. I see them thinking well. This is what's gonna happen if they keep. If the Democrats keep running insufficiently programme of candidates that too, and especially this emerging narrative, which is, I think, very unconvincing, but it's one that's beginning to do you're, beginning to hear democratic donors, that the reason why Democrats are in trouble at all is because they haven't past sweeping transformative legislation that has been promoting for ever and ever and ever so what there's probably something to happen not nearly as much as Democrats, her suggesting it is. Nevertheless, if that takes hold, then it'll come some well, let the reason why we losses because we're not being progressive enough. Ok, so that's
that's a very much like the freedom caucus. That's the that's the idea that the problem with, let you know, do things legislatively to get them done to claim a win? Is that it's a betrayal of you know that if you, if you, if you didn't, go that way, and you stuck to principle Magically mysteriously, that the political will or the political support would come that when people feel is that you're here otherwise you're just being in Alaska panty waste and in how you gotta, be God, be tough and resolute, win and fight an end so that that is very watch. The weirdness of the freedom caucus the in in during the Obama years, the one differences that the framework, as was there an appeal then things from happening, and then it gets so interested in preventing things from happening that serve preventive things from happening. That made no sense
like, could shutting down the government for no reason that kind of thing, and, as I keep saying Democrats want to do things like the free hawk is doesn't want do things, so it fits their model in out to go extreme and not doing things, including shutting the government down the progressives, want to do things. The progressives want government to spend money and do huge big things and yeah, maybe they'll be disappointed that it's not as much money as they wanted to spend, but surely it's better than nothing the to eat at one point, seventy five trillion is better than nothing right now. They're acting like it is in the Bell dojo last night said there would be, as you say Christine I was, I mean, I'm just think it that that that's all correct. I agree with that, but I also think there is something more long term and strategic that the progressive Caucasus is the thinks there doing. I'm not sure I be able to pull it off, but it strikes me that the other thing I've seen pop up recently in discussions of the Caucasus
ass of carcasses. You know they are young, there energetic they are gonna out last some of the current democratic leadership. The idea being like this is the new young blood. They ve only been in Congress for a few years, most of them. So the idea being we'll just let the policies and that you know that the oldsters will eventually retire and will take over so their biting their time in some ways, so that they will be able to get all those things and, of course, the media AIDS, and about some by describing them as being like. You know, unlike freedom, caucus types progressives, really feel bad if they have to vote against good things to do for the american people truly tough for that, because they're just that care so much so that they actually archive coddled still buy up by a press that agrees with them on policy matters, but pretends not too. So I
I am sure that there are even if they, if they tank this and the republican winds in Virginia and that changes the tone for the mid terms. Some of those folks in that caucus have longer term straw, the Jews in mind and they are happy to see the system blown up and rebuilt from their point of view and that's always been what they wanted. And if this is one way of getting there, I don't see why they would stop Brimmer only three of them only three of them have to say. No, we keep talking about this. As, though is a collective decision. It's only a collective disease. when policy pulls the bill because she doesn't know who which three or which tenor which when they are going to vote against it, but It takes three murmur. There is also the possibility that if something goes in those years, something go south in a different way that three Moderates Katenka bill they could. This is this: is the wild card here,
the wild card is young, kids wins, Mccall loses. If this happens now, let's get wilder cause. This is almost. This is very unlikely, happen, but that sit a rally, the republican wins in New Jersey and Murphy. The Democrat loses almost certainly not gonna happen, but black swans do happen in elections the might of mine, to my consternation, to the point of mania. virtual unknown governor the guy has no profile is somehow running way ahead of the president of the United States in my state. If, believed among the population of the right age airlines operating as a forty three percent and MC olives trajectory directly parallels Joe Biden, job approval rating, which makes what a sense. Why would Murphy be running ahead of Joe Biden? Will now
Virginia Virginias. A weird state, because do you now half of the people in Northern Virginia work for the government so they are? They are more than uncommonly involved in governmental matters. They their work for the government or they work for fate. You know four companies whatever that exist as government offshoots and stuff like that, so they're very plug them. That's that's why Virginia would more mostly track in theory them New Jersey? But let us say that somehow the blacks one thing happens. What are the moderates? Do I mean there are what what? What are those one of the nine ideological, not all that it illogical Democrats do. In that case they judge, wanna get along to go along by once savage Road for the build up over there by doesn't want. They won't work to build, build Pelosi. Tell someone to do all of this. They could run scare again, you only need three of them to blow everything up. What, if you're in what? If you're, I don't know
if your abigails bamberger or you know in an end- and your district goes, you know like firm young, can And you want to win reelection, that's what do you do? Where do you go? You ve already see in you already you're, Abigails Bamberger, you, you know you you're in a kind of a very purple district in Virginia. You ve already said this carcass went crazy with defending the police and all of that and screwed us up in twenty twenty, and we know we lost fifteen deeds in the house because it really people, and now these crazy people have taken charge of everything and everything is going south. You know for Democrats of what. Why would she be a party to the very vote that could not only oust her but that she could say? Look at this. We're gonna lose sixty seats net.
dear. If this goes on this way. Well, that's a I'm offering Stephanie Stephanie. Murphy is a Democrat from Florida. She's zero blue dogs are moderate no. She said to punch ball new she's like look there, they're they're playing politics. The progressive Caucasus playing politics is very clear that that
they're doing an ego as she said. I still have to go back to my district and so what I'm gonna? Do you know that the progressive will have she said they have to own their righteousness, their trading it for clean water, safe bridges, a decent commute public transportation, the works for people who can't afford car. So the moderates are very clearly we're gonna go back to our voters and say sorry: we got nothin and you know you can blame these crazies in our own coalition. But the point is they're not gonna, be able to sell anything to their constituents in terms of what they're bringing back from Washington this go round on, gives Europe a resurgence of part of the public rejection of the party? Yes, yes, a huge chunk of it is through the crazy radical ideas, but it's also the incompetence right. It's also the inability to pass these things good and bad for the the craziness of tying the two together in the first place, the infrastructure and the and the reconciliation. So I mean so there's there are sort of competing motivations here, because you'd, why
at least show that you can get something done right. Well that this, I think, makes a key point about this. One hundred and thirty five person body that has a representatives, so you Volor then, and we all these PETE. I everybody has been saying lately that there's a certain class of congressmen who is I didn't Congress to be in Congress there in Congress to get on tv their congress to get a fox or msnbc at this. Is their power at form and they're, using it in our as the platform for them to be public celebrities and therefore it doesn't matter or whether they pass things they dump. If your MAC Gates it doesn't matter what your legislative record is, if your Corey Bush it no matter what your legislative record is. Did you get things past? Did you not, but there's a hundreds of other Congress members who are boring and have
A thing to say- and our you know, like political professionals- are political, hacks or whatever, and that all they have all they have, as they can say, I use I did this. I did that for you. I did this other thing for you That's what I did if they're, not in the competitive district. They still want that because that they see old? You don't want to go around and tell people that they did things for them there are now being dominated by these people. Who could give? Who could do could give or take it doesn't matter them doesn't matter whether or not you know, legislation passes because they are driven by different incentives, and that's why I say: if you're one of these people, maybe you up and vote no. And build back better, maybe maybe you're like I'm sorry, no, I'm not back to my voters and you know and knows,
saying all week. There's all this lake relevant suggestions from the way Biden framed speech yesterday. Everything that Democrats are worried that they're looking fiscally irresponsible, not just looking fiscally responsible but looking fiscally responsible at the expense of pocket book issues that are of a much higher priority to voters, then even hard infrastructure to say nothing of these genome nebulous aspirations for a new social contract that are in that Bilbil, better agenda right, so I dont know I I highly doubt that you know some political hack from nowhere is gonna, be in all three of them are gonna, be the ones to tank the bill because their worried that it's too profligate, but I wouldn't I, where we we have now got to the point where nothing makes any sense there all gonna be asked to cast their.
You're asking these Democrats, forty of them, are in districts that Republicans had until twenty eighteen right, because forty seeds changed hands and twenty eighteen you're, asking them, or maybe not a man on a lot of those seeds came back and twenty twenty. So I don't know what the members but you're asking them to vote for three times the in dollars after they voted for two trillion dollars already pretty much. That's what you're doing so they're gonna go back in twenty, when he too, maybe uncompetitive districts and say hey, guess what I did. I spent enough A trillion dollars of your money, reelect me had don't you feel great, looking Disney economy and fantastic shape after I spent five trillion dollars of your money? Maybe a bunch of them. We're not gonna wanna go back, say that no one focused on that the media are focused on them. They claim
that the moderates only make up nine votes right, because the moderate caucus that Josh God Homer used claim to be ahead of only has my members is something like that, but I mean you can. presume that half of the democratic caucus you know is basically just like long ago long people item and the media is the dog that isn't embarking here literally because they just kind of moved on from yesterday as though it had never happened. We are very strange, the reaction of this he talked about this earlier in the past, but that the third desire to their behaviour here has been indicative of a desire to create an errand rather than to report on narratives. There tat they ve been cheerleading this effort, as though it was you know, they're really super close when they weren't and now they're pretending, as though this is just you know, I am
market will speed up the barely even needs to be discussed, even though its clearly and it signals the Intranet intractable divisions within the Kok is that they just don't even want to report on the there their efforts to create and shape narratives here that don't exist suggests a lot about the state play and though the likelihood that we ve been saying, although I am I'm trying to leave open the possibility that I'm wrong the likelihood that these divisions just cannot be amended. But you know it's just I dont get it because it's pathetic and do for media standpoint, don't they feel burned. I mean it twice spurned. You know that I dont Hank though I don't. I don't think they do. They should, but I dont think they drive, because, because you know I have right here in front of me, whereas this I had it amounts lost a punch, ball news.
My my life, my new, go to morning. News ladder because got left. they're, not sugar coating the stuff, unlike the times, and political, rightly book and half a dozen other values that are saying all. This is actually really good right now, but punch. Lose calls it a big with, but then says the following Biden didn't ask them to vote for it. You know they would have had a victory of Biden at only ask them to vote for it and then, There's all this praise for Priscilla job. How wide gibe has been successful with lover hater. You have to admit that represent a privilege. I pull the chair of the congressional, whereas Congress has been very successful in exercising power, see pc wants to pass legislation not overthrow their own leadership. The secrecy is much bigger than the House Room caucus ever
as that the said Jaya Paul is more effective than then the House Room caucus because they stick to one goal at a time: their wonderful that there's that let us make clear what happened. The present I'd say: it's went down to the hill said pass this stuff. My presidency is at stake at eleven. Thirty gave a speech that sounded as though he was claiming victory for a bill that that not only doesn't yet this. That's the big back, but the bill back better bill doesn't exist and only had a framework and that the people who still are the thing of the people who will kill it in the Senate, still haven't said they support it, and then the house was gonna, have a vote on infrastructure and then she was and then she wasn't that no one was going on. No one knew what the vote, which was no one, knew anything.
and now you know then suddenly, like wow, that promote Jaya, Paul she's, really good. That's not the story. The story is Casey's. Tangle was the manager than you. Mats. In its first year the Mets went forty and one hundred and twenty and one day in September, frustrated with how absolutely awful is expansion. Team was said. Can't anybody here play this game. I mean forget just If I were them, I would be an utter and complete the spare. You know I mean it takes a bizarre kind of Emily Every Malibu keep using Charlie Brown on the football and Lucy in the football League, butter
I have to say it emits accounting. We say over and over again, but it bears mentioning today. Imagine the parties reversed in this role and then imagine what the media would do. A pair of events, if this was the Republican Party who had this kind of intractable as a threat to democracy, a bitter always like yeah, yeah yeah, but in a shit you know, but also be no story, about how you know the extremists whipped up the fringe and now they're gonna be another. They did their regretted because they in doing so they have destroyed their party. Emmy would be endless, it will be. It would be a five stories on the cover of the of the times as opposed to none. That said, It still looks. Babies doesn't look good right now. If you're at your Biden, inured forty three percent. Look the pull out this morning.
It's from navigator, which they democratic, firm, has Biden. Ten points underwater forty three approve fifty three percent disapprove. So basically, I think we can now say that is firmly fixed. Almost every Paul has Biden somewhere a pointer to above forty percent, that's where he is and What happened yesterday didn't help him well in his saying, and we got two percent GDP growth in the third quarter. That's the other thing that happened. Let me just stop you for a minute aim and talk to you about that, because, again in the world of the counter, to have thinker and the world of opinion that you really want to take note. Of course, sometimes it disagrees with the conventional wisdom. I wanna talk to you again about our friend David Bonds and at the bonds and group I was excited interested to hear what he was going to say about the GDP numbers and he did not fail me because its end,
Staying at this, this came from his new letter, the DC today, the Daily NEWS letter he puts out from the bond some group the three billion dollar financial management services, from that he runs and this came out last night- we'll third Quarter- U s- gross domestic product came in a two percent from the previous quarter versus an estimate of three point: five percent and a cue to read of six point: seven percent, the negative point. Four percent decrease in autos was the largest contributor as supply chain issues or semi conductors, and new vehicles lingered. As As I and the market continued- see demand side strength. Positive economic growth is intact, meaning, let's not, let's not looks lose sight of the fact that the that two percent growth is still growth he also points out. It is key to know the difference between nominal gross oven,
late and real net of inflation figures with GDP Nominal GDP. That's with gross plus inflation was seven point. Eight percent up inclusive of inflation for the quarter, the dividend gross portfolio at TBD focuses on ivory castle, businesses that a pricing power? For this very reason, moderate inflation is less of an issue for companies if it can be effectively passed along with pricing power, those companies are less able to do this gap, get margin squeezed, meaning look. If there's inflationary growth in the inner slid, if inflationary pressures had companies and their strong enough because of the products they sell, that they can pass along to customers that serve bad knack economically, but not necessarily bad for companies, if you're gonna be an investor. This is the kind of thing you need to read and understand and understand the complexities and the market. That's the diesel. Today, from David Bond some and his weekly newsletter dividend CAFE: dot com go to dividend, CAFE Doc
The sign up for these two news: letters from the bottom grope, your antidote to the intellectual, spaghetti of the financial services and management industry are right. I was just Glenn, add junkies, you! You are talking about a button had this makes them look. So in his saying look, this makes her breaks my presidency. What happens today in in policies saying don't embarrass the president before he goes overseas. Don't you have to the next the results of the of the situation. You have set up right, so does it only count but if it made his presidency did that what would it only count it didn't embarrassing before he goes overseas, I mean you have to live with the framework right. So I guess I guess this broke it again, because he has been embarrassed, orderly, we're, not participation. Trophy like there's this weird way in which this like well, he said it and he meant it and then it didn't work out. It's like, but at least you said it
Maybe it's like when you know you're having a fight with your kids in your kid person citizens. As I hate you, will your kid doesn't really hate you, obviously Oh you know he can say that like this is the major break Bobo Baker Break well, would provide presidency and then five those like can you take me to the park you know like I don't know, that's exactly I don't know, I'm gonna get it doesn't Helen an ice cream. It doesn't help. he could use a little help. He good like do a little better in the polls. Ok, but this goes back to something I think Noah you in view pointed at an early on in his presidency. Is it everyone pitches things about Biden as if they happen to him? He's not?
really is a is not really an actor in this drama. It's like all these terrible things happened to him. Afghanistan happen to him and when, when, when people like us point out that actually hears a series of decisions, he made that led to this other debacle, it's poo poo. I don't know it's just it's just so terrible. So, like the bad jobs numbers, will the delta variant happen to this evening mission. What else could they do it at the supply chain crisis? It's getting tiresome people don't believe it regular people, the real world look at what's going on. In that say, nobody seems to be in charge here. Yeah I mean, but it is true to a certain extent. His presidency is flounder. His job brutal rating is creating at eight astounding pace. I mean, if he's saying my presidency is on the line here, there's a whole bunch of objective metrics. We can apply to suggest he's right. Well, let's let let them let's. Let's think that through was he right because it actually would matter if these bills passed like they would his is a brewery would go up. I mean, I think it might a little bit like it.
Maybe a pointer to I think, saying everything's on the wine and then not succeeding. Has a war Downward pressure, then seething with that argument, would on the other side, which is why I had so deranged who have made it in the first place. You said this yesterday you keep saying this. He keeps upping the stakes he keeps saying. This is the most important thing. That's ever have but this is how I get to be eligible twice. He's he's he's pushing in all these chips with a terrible hand that he knows he can't play and then in a pushes intelligence and unfold. Ok, so I sands ravaging- I sent you guys this clip yesterday from from Austin Powers where Austin Powers is playing in, I was playing against Robert Wagner, who is number two Robert Wade,
We're gets a seventeen at the blackjack table and he takes a hit and the dealer says: are you sure you want to take a head? Sir Robert rub: when Robert Waggery says I like to live dangerously and then he gets a four and he had twenty one and then Austin Powers is playing. He gets. He has a five. And he says I'll stay and dealer says sorry. you really? What is they are not a five hour suppresses I too like to live dangerously and then killed. It gets a twenty and, of course, Austin Powers loses, that sort of like what you're talking about only the difference here that you, you think that Biden, this bluffing, what if Biden, thought that five was a good hand? What if he thought that saying this is the man break mode of my presidency was a really good argument, not a bluff. Well,
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an them and we are sitting here, but the entire polar world doesn't care. What's going on with binding in Europe, I don't care. If you see headlines, amateur already been cares about Virginia. That's all anybody cares about in this foxhole yesterday, which has young can up eight. Fifty three forty six, I believe were, but that seven sewing spy math. This is why I gotta six ten on the math S. Eighty, so gibbering now can be true kept, yeah. How can it be true, but here's the thing, but the Fox Ball or two things about the pole number one. The fox Paul nationally has been very, has actually been kind. Forget that foxes Fox, like Fox NEWS, has has appalling. Does Pauling
and the polling has actually been kind to buy relatively this year. If you want to look at a pollster that finds it binds, approval rating is in the high forties low fifties for much of the year. You gotTa Fox. That's one interesting thing, so this is not a pull this being designed to be hostile to Democrats or two, and the other thing, of course, is one of two things. Why, which has Republicans have not been answering the phone with pollsters and they ve been under counted by pollsters appalled? That's what pollsters tell us having trouble reaching Republicans. So two things could be happening. Number one localities and real trouble because Republicans our answer, the phone and he still down by seven and the or is it. Republicans are so excited enthusiastic that when the pollster calls this time they want to answer, and they want to tell the pollster that their voting
Her younger either way either. This is just a terribly executed, Paul or Mccall if his toast, we won't know until Tuesday, but you know assuming that the policy made up and as I say, it's a creates. A credible, Paul and be has not been hostile to Democrats this year. You know and then forget the polling. All you have to do is listen TAT, They're saying Democrats are terrified. They're scared to death during the call of his calling Google anyone can a book banner, mostly a book banner who, against african american authors, she's kind of racist, probably job, it's a semi extremist. He has as yet the same ideology is as the people who sacked the capital on January sex.
works well well, assign the only reason why he wants to Bandboxes goes. It can't say the word out loud literally tweeted that last night they're scared to death and they should be because Virginias, a blue state is not two thousand nine Republicans haven't one that place and a real long time on a state wide level. Jerry term recalls virtually incumbent yet once removed, but he's got an incumbents ere. They know him he's unknown quantity and to lose in these in this environment. Would would hit them real art as they should? They should see it as the water receding from the shore line ahead of twenty twenty two well and there they just they're losing because they're lying to the public they're lying to the people that they want to govern like outright lying, and it's not just calling the other candidate a racist, which is that which is totally classic democratic. Playbook move its lying to the parents who wish
hang up at school board meetings and who are writing letters to the editor and worried about things like critical race theory. They say. Oh, that's, just that's a dog whistle. It doesn't happen. Supping ton, schools, meanwhile it were mixed. Candy is giving some keynote address at a major Virginia state conference. Next week I meet these people are lying in you. Couldn't you can look through the text books that are used in the things that teachers who love critical race theories about it online on their social media. It is everywhere? So the idea that they're, saying to parents who are concerned about this because they heard or sold or cheat the kid brought home from elementary school or their kids. That today I was in the oppressor group, and I had to talk about my privilege triangle. Whenever privilege pyramid the parents like what the heck they vote, they listened determine call of terminology, tells them what you're saying isn't happening it just now. The other thing is my call to saying this: is that he's a culture warrior he's trying to bring culture wars to the classroom, as opposed to noticing the cultural
having appeared in the classroom and objecting to it, which is kind of the trompe and way of inward, reflecting the very same criticism your receiving back onto your opponent in the exact same language, in the same terms the education as she was not fighting in New Jersey, and it's probably the reason why Murphy's gonna pull it out because he's still trust of an education he's not trusted on the pandemic is not trusted on taxes he's not trusted on the economy. Dig education issue has really been hard and Virginia, and if young compose it out we're gonna beast Privy to a year of the end up in an educational action, as the Congress has anything to do with that, but that's all over, but he's gonna talk about. Well.
yeah they're going to talk about it and park because Democrats are handling it so badly like their fall? I mean in a weird way: that's why this is this. This election is so important cuz. They will not be able to talk about it correctly or in a way that does what Christine's talk about, which is to say. We understand Pratt parents concerns about education and, where, in Washington, to defend ordinary people against, you know to to do what ordinary people need, and they can't say that it's very interesting and I think encouraging that the main focal points of the revolutionary convulsions of twenty twenty are absolutely those points that are now the being pushed back on by the general population
ah, defining police and anti racism, theorizing and an education right. I mean that with Joe Biden sang all the bill back better agendas, fiscally responsible. We're gonna we're gonna? Finally, in a cut the deficit and debt and we're going to get rid of inflation? For you guys- and this is all pointing in the direction and and Republicans are relevant here- there are not relevant to this conversation, their disorder, as their on unified nor war with each other, and they don't have political power, and yet there talking points are finding their way into Democratic MAO's. How could you not be encouraged by that? How could you not find that in an tropic condition
That benefits you, based only on the landscape, shifting beneath the feet of Democrats. To be something. That's that's good. The fatalism that that Priscilla, pronounced on the conservative side to me is an unwarranted too. That degree in so far as we are seeing an organic movement in the direction of conservative radiology that conservatives have not engineer. Will that. I think that actually is a really good point, especially for for our friends on the right who are despairing, because I think their despair grows out of having stated that endured, as the entire country did. The trumpet errors and the paranoia and the lies in the gas lighting in all that stuff, forgetting that and yes a lot of Americans embraced that in a brace those tactics and still don't think, elections can actually be legitimately one, but we still are supposed to be the than the conservatives are still supposed to have more faith in the american P.
in the regular average american person having enough common sense and wisdom to to structure a life in a community for themselves? That's gonna work better than anything that can come from a government bureaucrats and that's a bit of what that's where I think the hope is. This shows that people are really willing to stand up and fight for what they believe predict when it comes to their children, that's a good thing. Ok, I wanna take a journey back to the early to midnight in seventies, sensors how many analogues and parallel to that time, people remember than twenty nineteen Kamel Harris basically put herself in the position. to become the vice presidential Romany. By going it Joe Biden added debate on the fact that he voted for forced voted against, You spoke against forced mandatory bussing per political bussing that I'm a Harris said, have helped her as a kid in Oakland this sea rte stuff. This pull school board school level, stuff
eerily analogous to the populist revolt against bussing in cities all across the country, including the fact that the parents who said I dont want you put Kids are a my kids on a bus and send them an hour away to perform a social experiment on integration. When I want mine to be able to walk five minutes to school and walk five minutes back home from school, I moved to this neighborhood. For that reason, this it might My parents can go pick up the kid at school, bring lunch, it doesn't matter. I dont know Are you doing this or bringing kids who don't live in my neighborhood into my neighborhood to perform the social experiment? They were called racists. It was all dog whistling:
All liberal opinion said this was terrible and all progressive thought supported this and bussing was killed in the United States. Mandatory forced integrative bussing died in the United States because of parental leave What'S- in cities across the country- and even now, people can say this was racist dog what they can say whatever it is that they want to say. But what is going on with critical race theory. And curriculum revision and true, gender in the stuff in schools has Very weird analog to this witches stop using my children as your social engineering tools there, my kids Not your kids leave them alone, or we will make your public lives miss
we will vote you out of office, we'll scream at you at school board meetings. We will you now we will have marches income. our sea. We will do whatever it is that we have to do leave my kids alone and people are playing with fire when they start playing with kids in particular. They start playing with kids in political ways that do not conform with the politics of the neighborhoods and the bureau's and counties that people live in loud and clear. but he was until very recently in Virginia what it was. Exactly a whirl county, but it was up. It was a hard republican county. You now one of the biggest dimple here is lamb. Canny was a prison. It was a redneck place. It's you know it got and into an excerpt got way more populous and all of that, but this Thea that somehow loud and county is a place where they should be performing extreme
Social engineering and schools- it's almost as though they summon this upon themselves, they summon this reaction. This is not the place for it. Berkeley might be the place where at Cambridge might be the place for it now you know where rules the Upper West side might be the place for it not loud county. and by the way, not that you know, as we know, from George Packer in his this astonishing piece about public school in Brooklyn that he published in the Atlantic a couple of years ago, even progressive You know self glorifying self, loving, harboured, punk journalists like George Packer, suddenly don't like it when their kids are being forced into a family groups and separated by race and told at achieving, doesn't matter and stuff. I pack has, of course that's fine for the kids and controversy, but not from my kids in in park, slope or but
a spectator wherever there's that you know heap, he chooses to stain the ground by living, so I'm just saying as a matter of course. This is a very interesting set of populist, sir stances that Democrats have generated against themselves their winning. I still think winning, like it's very hard to tough, to push back against this culture wants a lot, but it is absolutely right. The elites are not that are not the battleground. Now it's almost like we lost. We lost this fight Then the elites, and now it's really the people themselves or who are going to have to defend their own and their doing it the same way that you, when you're cook him in your kitchen, you can make restaurant quality meals. If you have the right tools- and you know it
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let em a d. I am Cook where thought comes, less commentary use promo code commentary, so we gotta go, anybody have fun, weaken plans briefly before we're not to fund. We can plants, I'm take it. the kids in their friends through wizards game. So whatever that's. Ok, so I'm excited okay. Now go ahead yeah I say to you talked about this navigator, Poland. I just want to tie light and the extent to which Democrats her hostage to their boosters in the press. So this navigator poll shows something that we ve been talking about for a long time. Couple of earlier this week, Jill Venison and Neil New House to pollsters. Had this pulling of independent of voters said coupled their concerns. Their deepening financial concerns their own personal economies, with growing fiscal profligacy in Washington how Washington isn't responsive to their needs. You talked about this navigator pulled democratic group, a shit.
essentially, the same thing demonstrates that people specially independence, but the Democrats and everybody in the middle of the electorate doesn't believe that the bill back better agenda has anything to do with jobs or the economy and its discontent. Disconnect is deepening democratic troubles. and John Harwood CNN for many times reporter says or quote not focused on the economy. Unquote just means they haven't gotten the price of gas and other stuff down. Just at all you gotta do is gonna just just get a couple of points off of the gospel
it's in everybody's gonna come around thing another. Basically, that voters are idiots they're stupid, they dont get it. You just have to communicate better. You need a better rhetorical strategy. If this is the advice they take or they convinced themselves to take that the legislative disasters worse than even I anticipated to big, I mean it's a fascinating thing to say: a day, if not in out just gas, it's just gas prices. Gas prices, dead, royal knives doesn't care anything at all. Die you with this administration and a war on pipe heights. Gas prices destroyed the democratic grasped by one of the three things that destroyed the Democratic Party for twenty years. You know
nope. Nobody should be under any illusions that gas prices are the sorts of things that you can easily and gimmicks that were introduced to try to all to create alternative pass to energy sufficiency, independent. In the late nineteenth seventies, solar wind, all this, I'm familiar welcome to the Jimmy Carter presidency. Every but it's fine junk as crimes is. Ok, oh wait. Ok, Of course, things going or wizards game I'm saying I'm amazed cause I'm actually gonna get to see my daughter in a play there. Actually letting vaccinated parents in this is very exciting, so seeing her for the first time in two years and in a play one of her favorite things to do a: U.
You know better than to ask me that. Ok, that's true, I know better about getting idlers nice not doing stuff, it doesn't mean not doing stuff Noah. I have two young children and italian. So, oh of course Following Sundays weekend, where that is sir, yes, Halloween gotta notice around my my carbon building hallowing cancelled because of covert really do you know what the case raises in New York City possesses nothing I bought pounds a candy, I don't care if they try to cancel it. I that the rumour on the streets is that it's on kids are planted to come. So, of course, it is ok. is anyone ATLAS, infrequent adults who would go insist upon posing their preferences on your children go swimming.
but they also that you know in New York. You know it's go round. Halloween weaken in New York in its grownups. Well, look like there ten years old, but not kids would like grownups anyway. Thank you all for listening, we'll be back on Monday for aid known Christine, I'm John purports keep the candle.
Transcript generated on 2021-10-29.