« Commentary Magazine Podcast

What Does Trump Know That We Don’t?

2020-10-26 | 🔗
Do the Trump campaign’s efforts to appeal to the COVID fatigued voter suggest they know something about the electorate that isn’t showing up in the polling? Or is the president just flailing about in the final days of a losing campaign?
This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
Welcome to the Commentary Magazine Daily Podcast today as Monday October, twenty six twenty twenty eight days until the election, I am jump on towards the editor of Commentary magazine with me, as always associate editor no arrangement high Noah Ajar senior. Christine rose high, Christine Hygiene and executive.
There are a great wall high Abe, how jump so I am wondering whether we are going to spend a week talking about there are not the poles are tightening and the races closing or whether the story is going to be that that isn't happening. Obviously, you can't anticipate the whose, but there seem to be these diametrically opposed desires, I would say largely among the mainstream media and the and the Biden campaign on the one hand, pretend that the election is over and, on the other hand, did not want to pretend the elect. as over, because they need people to turn out and not to get over overconfident. But any in everything, trumped does or says, repents does or says
criticized for somehow being an example of electioneering, and we should really be beyond that sort of thing. Even though, where a week away from the election, I note that the enormous amounts of fun was bit were being made at the idea that vice president pencils campaigning for the re election of Donald Trump Here. The national Security Visor Robert O Brien said that and was an essential worker and thus need to continue to go out on the campaign trail, despite the fact that some of these aids are tested positive for the vote,
press and that there was immense amounts of fund being made of this, as though the act of running for President am the re election of the president. The election we present is not the most essential thing, though, that we face, but I think we are now in a position in which anything that the Trump team and the Trump ticket does is considered beyond the bounds of acceptable behaviour. Even if it's breathing because of the snow storm that yes, I mean that you know is Kamala Harris's a to test positive. She would get off the campaign trail in the last week in the last week. Ok, so that's their spin that they are not doing anything because they don't want to you now that I want to fight the virus, but I mean that's that's insane the notion that anyone in any proximity to any person who might have had covered, who is
lasting negative from covered, none, the less needs to like go into a sealed plastic bubble forever or for two weeks. That is one very extreme way to deal with. This is a mitigation matter, but it is not the only way and that's testing is not just for the purposes of garnering. Testing about who has covered and who does. It is also about giving us guidance about how you're supposed to behave when you covered don't have the disease. Can iris dead takes and PAMELA Harris Did it whatever ever more frightening out like a huge credit silver? So, yes shapes shoe jets, who suffers a tested, positive and looked over by October? Twenty ass? She was bad
on the trail. Should it take some time off, but the other, but it wasn't the last week no unfair and their schedule for campaigning has been as if mentioned many times almost Genoa did Erin, I mean there's. No, I didn't find just. Another led, for I mean he's doing barely any appearances between now and election day. I will say the other. It is gonna, be such along weak because already ready over over the course of the week, and how many stories did you I see I saw several where they showed a long line at a pole polling station for early voting all we heard about with suppression, Amene Alexander Cause, your Cortez was the worships. You she's in New York, totally blue state saying this just because it's a democratically controlled state doesn't mean there It still suppression going on, and so of course the mockery, I think totally justify was that I guess drivers happens every time there is a line of the DMZ or the grocer. I mean it's ridiculous, so I think
gotta be hearing a lot of disk anything, but the binding campaign will be being discussed and anything that might be some sort of seeming access central threat to democracy is already here about for the next week. So gird yourself, people, the Euro, such as it does all this talk about voter suppression. You know New York state is the is the epicenter a voter suppression, but it is not because you have Paul taxes or you know, literacy, tasks or something like that. New York plays these games to make sure that people vote as little as possible in most elections. They scare school board elections for January, an unknown on no known schedule so that the turnout is two percent. They scare primaries in September to make it impossible. Where are the primary duty of someone in them and the Out party ever to succeed in about establishing a
against the sitting person in office. That's voter suppression like there's, there's a whole history of this, screwing around with dates of elections, in order to make them unclear to people that is, voter suppression having practised as that too, a thorn in the side of voting rights activists. but it should like moving school board. Guerrilla elections should ASCAP, but it's a scandal. It is a scandal that you dont vote for these things on election day with everything else and that these are not there gun, specifically to ensure a turn out of two to three percent in elections, so that they can be. gained in elections that people, don't you aren't like the central elections. Voter suppression by making people well I'm lines for two hours when, people are waiting on lines for two hours in two thousand eight about four rock Obama was a party. It was wonderful, it was a celebration. People were happy to do it in order to vote for a cast, a historic vote for the most to store, cost or figure
historicity and now you know if you wait for more than five minutes. Apparently we live in Soviet we are also. At the same time I mean, of course there are lines Vive the degree of virtues going for early voting? Go you like, mostly by by New York. I I mean you know diverge, Secondly, on voting in general is, as you know, been something to behold fur for many in elections, is now, but I mean it is so and completely out of control. Now that if every other word that you're going to here is about how you need to get out there right now and vote early for. every source in the world. Moliere there have been there, they are creating the lights. I mean the word vote these commercials right that are, of course, nominally non partisan, but are actually just you know, Biden commercials. All these sick vote vote, vote skits on it out supported comedy shows that end with some
Indeed our invitation to vote by the way. You know, one of the reasons that you don't necessarily want to do these things, as you think that only your people were being told to vote when there's a big message that voting voting. Voting. Voting like you might want to keep it quiet cause you don't wanna know if, if that, if the Trump voter doesn't necessarily want to come out, you don't want to like them over the head with their responsibility vote, if your Biden, but yet of the virtual savings like when New York's early voting open on Saturday. So all over my facebook, liberal friends of mine and Facebook, friends of mine, are like I've been online for four hours in the cold, but I dont mind I don't mind because I'm exercise goodbye, wait about you know it's like and then, and then somebody somebody I know like in invoke this famous thing that Abraham, to a said when he stood on the Edmund Palace edge and Selma with the king and nineteen sixty five. When he said I felt it my feet were praying so those like, I feel, like my feet,
in a state that bind there's gonna win by twenty five to thirty points like You can stay home stay home. Your boat does not matter. Trump is winning the state. The way I'm a winning Christmas like this is not your fault doesn't matter. I just want to make this totally clear to you. Both doesn't matter nothing on the on the ticket. In two thousand and twenty two and twenty in you know in in this district nothing's up for grabs. There's no said it raises nothing. Your vote doesn't matter so virtuous signal all you like, like enjoyable, This is a bit of a digression, but it highlight something you were just talking about and also puts. The spotlight on the atrophy king of the left, comedic talents, island in the age of Donald Trump, so Sarah Cooper, who I dont, understand, she's this committee, an who lives, sinks,
over whatever Donald Trump says in an affected manner and become an hour of huge celebrity has resulted in she guessed hosted Jimmy Camel. I dont understand the appeal beyond the fact that a sort of assent up front, but like sort of a lazy one. So, whenever had this video mocking Donald Trump Energy, with Leslie Stall during the climate change aspects of it, where she's going back and forth Leslie about our, are we certain scientists disagree in whatever saying talking, climate change and the very cosmetic tramping way without very much comprehension of the issue, but trying to push back again if they stolen notion that there is consensus around prescriptions to address climate change, not just the existence of climate change, and then she did her for bed and at the end of the video all the sudden, if it fails to sad music and like pictures of vat mental degradation, Ngos, climate change is no laughing matter. you might have had some fun here, but let's get serious for a minute. This is a very serious time. You have to go vote.
So it's like, even if you had a woman of joint beautiful, even if it had like a second of enjoying that which I did not, but maybe you did you're not allowed to have that sex. Welcome to the minimalist regarding seriously to react in of that second of levity, because it was frivolous and weak Are there any last January talk about Leslie Stall? Can we talk about the Leslie Solitary observers they? Finally, they ran at sixty minutes, rats version and so all over twitter last night people were to do see trumped. Did you see that last the end of the segment? Did you see it? Oh my god. You know the whining whining. Really. This is just shocking, so I I watched it. I watched it three times. I watch the end. The last two minutes I didn't watching you to. I watched most of it in the White House, version and he's like you're, being very unfair to be right. It's it's in this town, you being very unfair to me. You started out by saying- or you re for some tough questions- you don't S Biden, tough questions
And she's, like I did an interview Biden, she said he said I watched by Non Sixty minutes like there's, not a tough question, but you me, you start out by saying we re for some tough questions. That's why I need social media cause. I can't get my message out out, but you know what beyond you, people like that and then a producer, cuts in and says Leslie. Can we just wait because you know we have five minutes until something or other and then Trump says I think we ve done enough as it ends was over his shoulder right but Inga. I think we ve done enough. I think I think I think this enough? I think you got enough. Ok, thank you and then you get in any sort of like looks around and sir puts his hand. Then he says thank you will be back in a couple of minutes and stands up. Ok this is the worst our test of all time, because Trump did not lose his temper. He did not why action he said something very serious, which is. I can't get my message out with you: people you throw Joe Biden Softwares, you you come at me with heart. You know with with the hardest possible stuff. This is,
the way to work. Ok, you know what I think: it's fine I'll be back in five minutes and then everybody who hates Trump simply brings their trump hatred to the screen and says he's disgusting, my god did you see. This is like a toddler that he was it like. I believe that he had like gotten up and start stormed off avian. You pointed this out in the first place like a couple of days ago, yet the hookahs, the whole story was Trump storms off set and the man I watched it watched at the White House is, you know own footage of. It and of course, as you say he didn't stormed off, I stormed off a tv set right. I'd live tv, I was on cross fire and I got really mad at Michael Kindly- and I said the hell with this, and I took my MIKE often I walked off stage like twenty some five years ago and the other new story, he was ice.
I was it was. If you want I would add. I didn't want me to make one, some put in reserve to tell the story now. You know the story was that I was brought on to talk about something I don't remember what and then, There was a story in the news, a controversy involving the new post, and I was then the editorial pagoda than your post and Michael said, John on words this out of your person. I said, Michael I'm not on here, to talk about anything involving my employer. We're talking some issues like? Not at all, I make the rules here, I'm the one who to ask the questions, and you answer the questions that I said, Michael One like this, I'm gonna walk off and he's like. No, no I'm gonna end. So I said fine and then I took my MIKE off and I walked off the I walked off the said so and I was in a rage, and you know I I didn't tear the MIKE off, but I kind of Europe be acted on
and that was that was a storming. Also, I've actually done this online tv trump was very contained in very controlled and he was using stalls behaviour to make a point about media unfairness and whether that's the point you should be making at this late stage in the election is a different issue, but this was a controlled, contain version of it and then they they go off. Camera like eight days, say hey. You know we're we're. We know we're ready to go with the pent segment whenever you are and then trumps as well. I think we have enough here, but it wasn't like I've done here and to be fair to sixty minutes or start they didn't retail the story that he stormed off. Somebody had CBS News
but it wasn't like the official line of C b S new of sixty minutes. The trumpets had no stormed often behave like a baby from them. I thought it. It came from white ass people, none of that he had stormed off. No, no, no, no, no, it didn't it in any way whatever. So, I only bring this up to say, tat. You know we are now in it. We are literally now at the stage at which trumps gonna, Swearin Amy Coney Barrett apparently is not allowed to. You can't swear Amy, Coney Bear and because they'll be a super spreader event. If he's, whereas Amy call me only Coney, Bear
Now it's hot where he doesn't swear, and I guess I guess Roberts Controversies- words which were very good. He wanted ended his Donald. My pants will preside over this evening's vote right and having been exposed, our or within them the proximity of potential exposure within the last several days. That's the visa, the controversial but ok, so look! This is up. This is of the corona virus. Athena people around pencil in the grove. Ices is a fantastic opportunity for Further Biden team to just keep the focus on this association between Trump and open it up. The Trump and Ben tents are the disease. They represented disease. They have the disease there spreading the disease them
anything to stop the spread of the disease, and this is all the kind of objective correlative of that and the end. You know there's nothing that they can do about. It lets let's move on, and I want to ask you guys what you thought of chief of staff work meadows saying on. I guess I'm Jake Tapir shy, guess it was Jake Tapir Show yesterday it out what we cannot contain the disease. Ok, so I have sort of counter intuitive tickets wiring. Yet when I, when I heard him say that I didn't think that was then admitting defeat like we can't do anything, we're we're not going to lift a finger to help all these second dying people. I heard a kind of more rational use. contain a virus in the way that that I think meadows was interpreted the question he talked about mitigation strategies, which is a very. One thing answer: it's ok, the virus is here, we can't stop, you can't stop the buyers and sellers, and I mean you can work on a vaccine and whatnot, but I think he just it- and this is actually indicative of his
bungling many times in this jobs are not defending his his performance as the chief of staff here, because you the same thing when Trot was in the hospital he misspoke pretty badly, but I dont He was admitting defeat like we don't even care when I'm gonna try to stop this thing. I think he was saying you can. Actually we can. our fingers and end virus. What we can do these mitigation strategy so get, I think there was there is a deliberate misinterpretation and deliberate weighting of what he was saying to make. It look worse than I think he intended that make sense right who said we can contain the disease we're trying to treat. It were true we're coming about therapies, were trying to come up with a vaccine and then Jason can't you contain it is like us. It's a contagious virus now. this thing goes to a slightly different point. About about. Mark meadows. Right mark Meadows is a is a Congress went from the south, he was elected in twenty twelve as it the party here
one. Sixty percent of the vote in every election that he ran in, and I think it's fairly they are in. This is an issue going forward for the Republicans and the Democrats that he comes from this world of people who have no clue how to talk about issues in a way, that isn't specifically directed to people who agree with them about everything. The notion that, if you you know that that politics is about coming up with a a message that serve works for everybody, and so you Don't say we can't contain the disease. You would know that because you don't soon that your audience a is friendly or be that they share all of your priors about the about these things which, in a republican or conservative context, go to this notion that government can do everything
we can't do everything? It has a limited role to do various things, and so when, when you say look, we can't contain the disease, that's part of an overall theory of of politics and government an, even laughed about individual responsibility. Collective! Will you know whether or not the large scale government action works and all of that but people who are hearing Mark Meadows talk, unlike the people in his district, where he got elected four times or three times or whatever was they don't share. Those priors But you know it is really what he said is kind of the only admirable characterisation of situation, because under one hand you have. You know the idea that oh, yes, we can and will contain at. All. We have to do is listened to the science and have a data driven policy on the other side, there is the Trump idea which is as well it's its it's.
verge of going away on its own anyway. It's your were round the corner just about their what what meadow set, as is actually. Reasonable, ok, but that only works if your predisposed to seeing that is a reasonable message, and all the data. We have suggests that what voters want is magical thinking right. Voters want somebody who's gonna come out. One of the wings and introduce some containment strategy. This virus and get us all back to normal tomorrow and that's impossible, but that's our voters want to hear so giving them National message is only only has downsides right completely right. It's a candid braided commit purely on you know. We have. you have introduced and style of points here and on that you know F minutes, but that's what I'm talking about. So I think we can agree
at what meadow said. You know one that when you know when they say, went by and said you know Trump card digested Joe condescend to the american people. You know they can take it where people are tough. let him know tell them yoke. Churchill leaders talk about how disastrous Dunkirk was like be brave, be this, but of course that's not what they want, because what what meadows was essentially saying is we can contain the vice, we're, working really hard to figure out how to mitigate it and then how to vaccinate against it. And that's that's the strategy that we have so when Trump says, learn to live with it? That is a version of trying to be The serious sober adult tough leader jets, supposedly Biden says he needs to be but I am who says we're learning to die with it. Now I dont worry imbibing, because it's a good political message, but it is not
but he says it is, but what is missing on the conservative side, which is the art message that trumped should and never did fully articulate and he should absolutely be faulted for is the, personal responsibility aspect of this right, so Biden's messages, I'm good me and the government we're going to save you were going to do. All these things were going to take me from the virus. Trump had an opportunity which he squandered again again to say. Yes, we have to live with this here. What each and every american responsible American should do. You know you wear a mask, essentially distance. You mean he had this this opportunity to make the conservative case for how'd, you lira something that you can't control and that's where I really fault because, that allowed pine and the magical government. Thinking is what I would call it know it, because it is the idea. the government's gonna come in here and solve this a cat, so he's right to say it camp, but he completely didn't give Americans a way forward the governments of this problem. For them there are two possibilities of what's going on with Trump. In the last week, I'm gonna
lay out the two and then aim tell me what you think of them. You know the whole where he gave a speech. We said covert, covert covert, it's always covered with them. If a plane crash five hundred people die in a plane crash, they would say covered covered, covet, right this morning, making it clear that this is that that was not a one off. He literally tweeted. All they say is covered, covered covered So he is saying these people, all they want to do, is talk covered covered covered, so either we're gonna wake up on November forth, with Trump either in IRAN. The pole position, winning or having wine or whatever and we're gonna back and say he knew something he knew something moroccan people are sick of covert, they want a present in other, they won't say they won't tell pollsters, they won't admit it, but what they want is for someone to say talk about something.
else enough with this, you know, I'm not getting it. No one, I know, is getting it. This is enough already and there out. There saying they care about it more than anything else, but they dont really, and so I'm the guy Are you now I'm on the voice of the silent majority? That's one! Now either that's his id or his. You know animal cunning instead, understanding of the voters that he showed with the way you talk to the white Working Class or they have polling day, suggest that this is a powerful message. Do you think they have poem data, because all the Poland there I'm seeing say it doesn't work. I think it's striking that he won't let it alone, but of course, in the last two weeks of twenty eighteen, which we should get to ex I'm gonna stop and get to that. So what what do you think? I think he's on that message because it's entirely based on his own, desperate need to move beyond the idea that he is the covered president
The nation is destroyed as result of his pitiful responds to the virus. I think that is purely it, because as no as pointed out when he's reacting with em the degree of sort of tactical consider duration, anything we know it. He you notice it one way or another. Even this day. Yesterday, I with great directions: Rodya Noah Christine. What are you? What do you think that has been cleaning up his remarks all morning. Supposed to do a and had. I think it was some one will and then there was there. cancel railways. There was a security event, apparently, or at least that was what they said, How can you pull reporters, and you said you think only person waving a if lag along with his white mask, is Joe Biden we're going to defeat the by the virus, we're going to control it. We're gonna try to contain. It is best we can. But if you look at the full contacts of cigarette, there appeared a mass so and so and so forth. So
if there's a there's no strategy here. Obviously this was a failure, and this the giant or the little job over mask wearing again the just something we ve been talking about this. It's not. Ninety percent of people wear masks, pulsing? Ninety percent of people wear masks so going oftener every mask rant is is bereft of any strategic insight, I wouldn't. I would also add that for it for all of us who have done our best to wear masks because we're supposed to make Fine and mocking mask wearing is basically saying to all those Americans who done their best, even if they haven't reach the ninety percent saturation right. It is not good. Because people it's it's annoying to wear masks. A lot of people have been. and they do it in because they feel it's the right thing to do from public health perspective and to hear that you, the staff say he's wearing a mass. That's that's about message right now. The whole thing, but these messages of the end, is the question of of
Many people are yet undecided in this in the selection and whether or not they are finding themselves whip sod between, I think, essentially, wanting to vote for, try it where you know they date. They would have voted for Trump under other circumstances, but now they day they won't want to. And this notion that Trump is kind of speaking to them directly like into there. You know into their ends its. You know those people and what their, where the way there talking in the weather, handling it and what they're doing and how their basically fascists you to walk around in the mask and I'm not that guy the quest. Is whether there are enough people who say would be inclined to vote for Biden among those you know undecided who are scared by bindings
You know the socialist: whatever you want to call. It are scared by Biden, city, illogical or the parties in the lot of logical predilections who are turned off by the covered covered covered message, so you would have that it may appeal to people doesn't mean that it doesn't equally offend. The tiny number of people left. You haven't made up their minds and therefore, at best would be a wash if it's. at a kind of bizarre thing to be saying if everybody in the news saying we're in the middle of a second wave and that we now have more cases than we ve had informal obviously, that number is going to increase as we approach the election, because one thing what happens when case them increases that they keep increasing by definition. Like you know, this is a kind of you know, algorithmic effect and people. It has to burn through the population again for it to start declining again it doesn't just right and it will just go up a teeny bit and then
appear, on the other hand, like I say, if we wake up on November. Fourth and Trump did a lot better than we think we're going to have two possibilities, one of which is that you are. The polling has missed measured his support from the beginning and the other is that he knew something about the pc nature of the covered and mask and stuff response and how to get at peoples of deepest in her feelings As you know, the whatever is left breaks for him and not for four Biden. Now. Let me pull back for a second and talk to you about. We have us, are of a different kind of sponsor for this episode. It's the Jordan Harbinger Show, which has a pod cast well worth listening to Jordan, show which Well, maybe one of its best and twenty eighteen is aimed at making you a better
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race. You may remember that that Donald Trump and Fox NEWS went absolutely bananas over this story about the caravans coming up from Central America. serve attack the border which had started in August. And was a real story like these. Ngos were in fact encouraging people to create essentially a wagon train from Central America from Guatemala, Honduras and one while up through Mexico to go to the border in large numbers to kind of challenge. American immigration policy effective, and so was the good they're coming they're coming, the cut caravans are coming. All the polling data was looking bad for Republicans and then the Cavanaugh nomination happen in the fight over Cavanaugh Happen, then, and and muddy the picture a little bit
but you didn't get too, but I think everybody frozen place and was saying here. You know? Maybe they know something like I'll get how this is helpful, but you know his activating immigration these knowingly. All this. You know, I don't know you know. Maybe this is the save their agreement, then it's urine and particularly because you know MSNBC, hey said: that's God and all of this and then and then Republicans lost forty seats and then They did ok and the Senate and didn't lose the Senate. I think I think it's pretty much understood that that was in part in the the Senate effect was the Cavanaugh affected. It gave some thing for conservatives in these states in Indiana and South Dakota
stuff to rally the the base which have gotten depressed and to get them to at least vote for the centre. So the real question is that was the first indication that, maybe you note the Trump twenty. Sixteen thing was a fluke right in the sense that he had an issue sat that was good for a certain number of people, and then call me happened at all this, and that, in fact is closing message and waiting was so incompetent that, and did so little that here we are, so I just wanted to bring that up and see if you guys have any thoughts about this. You know in relation to twenty twenty how do you know Christina had I just want to say that I think there's a there's, there's been a tendency with Trump because of the degree of the upside of twenty. Sixteen, I think, of the people
who ceiling Jesus in there burnt toast, you know, there's a way and waste when he would give the he's done something and we keep trying to find Jesus in the burnt us, but at some level some of this stuff, you said fluke, I think, they're, really, dumb luck, they should be something we gave a lot more weight you which is actually a counterpoint to. That is why, unlike Are we admired friends and colleagues? I don't think he's an existential threat. You know, I don't think he's a fascist who's, gonna stage a coup like the new Yorker. Is For so I think that's two sides of the same coin, but guy, I dont, think you he knows that much. I think, he's also because his shown some nurses, Personality trace. He surrounds himself with people who tell him the interpretation they think he wants here about his own role in the world, which means which from a poor leader, but it also makes him really believed his own hype, and so he might think some one person. Stephen Miller, might have told him you talk about these caravans, you're gonna, it's gonna be amazing. The Republicans are all good
We had such a winning issue, but it wasn't, like because one guy who he happened to listen to your one fact show he happened to hear, can sway him very easily. So yeah, I'm not I'm not sure, there's a lot of strategy. I think there's the forty just thing going on here for him. Nobody, so we we were talking about this was still makin the other day about how we had two consecutive elections are pretty much under under captured the republican vote. look at the twenty nineteen Senate races. that's where the evidence from that, but they were you had a real obvious undercutting of the republican vote was in pretty red states already places like Missouri were Josh Holly performed his pulse significantly, though, already expected to win Indiana and Florida, where on two Democrats were pulling well underperform to the point where the Republican actually one that race
surprisingly, but it wasn't a uniform effect, necessarily places like Arizona where their Republican can, it was expected do better than she did than she did it on a Democrat when they re. So if you apply that ten, twenty twenty any, let's say that word, the republican vote in largely republican States is being under counted. It still wooden, save Donald. And it might say the Republican Senate, but only by a hare, if that most likely immediately you're lucky to get a fifty fifty split out, because yeah places like more Caroline in South Carolina, Georgia, Iowa, where it's there Its competitive but Arizona mean maybe reach, and so, even if you give given The idea that maybe there are said to have five from the high side point of fact in favour of Republicans, and there is still a lot of places where the polling is so deep in favour of both job
and the democratic candidate that it doesn't necessarily right. star. So I mean it is if there is some sort of a secret sauce message here, let's say masking antipathy to masking is the caravan message of twenty team. You know, maybe you can get two points out of really deep red states, but there's just a lotta territory. Here, that's more per wish, so I don't know, but I will have an appreciable if I think the anti masking message, if it's a message, isn't really directed at the deep red states. I think it's directed at deep red people trap it purple states who maybe like incredibly depressed like great so take me York is a deep blue stay right. So if you're
from voter, maybe a turn out. Maybe you don't you know who's gonna lose right. Obviously, the question for tromp is Florida. Georgia in Texas, in particular like these states that he absolutely needs to and if he loses any one of the three of them, the elections pretty close to over and obviously I think, there's so much attention on the brazen Florida that nobody who I'm gonna voted out. Nobody was again about. It is gonna somehow turn around about, but Ideas too is to offer like up. If there's an idea, I'm interpreting that, there's my dear rather than us assembly of kind of affect give them a reason that speaks with deep part of themselves that they don't even know it's is his hair. I mean I just I don't know, I'm just just trying to sort this out because Trump doesn't have a closing message.
If there's a bell, whether there would be the minutes a Senate race The mission is a the minister was Minnesota, which is democratic and combat pretty heavily favoured democratic state. we don't have a lot of pulling in the state that everything in October shows how much closer rates than we have recently we're talking about some local pollsters, so Kate S, TP, Minnesota opposed so not like we're talking about national pollsters. It's pretty much off the radar race, but as close to four point raised at the one point raised depending on the polio, looking at over and Minnesota's been crushed. The recent outbreak. So you know there is sentiment against reimposition of these kind of strict restrictions around social and economic life, maybe
And a fast there I just I don't I don't think it and manifest uniformly across the country in a way that will save Donald Trump at the poles are even remotely accurate right mother. So this is the situation, find is that there has been a tightening over the last week in in the in the battleground states. Ride like Florida Biden was up by close to five. Now he's up by two Pennsylvania has tightened. The little Michigan does not appear to tightened up, but so there's been some tightening, which is, I think, basically, this you now coming home affect all the same. The whole thing about the coming home effect is that, if it showing up in the polls that would then suggested This notion that the vote that is gonna win trump over is totally invisible. Campi that invisible.
they are visible to pollsters and that their and that their coming home and then, if they're coming home, he needs way more of them still to come home Well, but that's what I mean for those who believe in the invisible fact there are. You would be well now it now that there's a tightening up at its this certainly tips the balance over to it. right is it. If Trop is behind by anything other than five points, that means he's gonna win. I'm right now that is their framework. Well, you know there is an interesting thing going on witches Here was the whole thing about the early voting and voting by male versus the voting in person, so it said demo, that's a good about overwhelmingly early right by male orb voting earlier. by mailer voting in person and Republicans are going to dominate on the day of because Trump made clear that
voting by mail and early voting was a disaster. Writes a disaster to disaster okay. So everybody has been saying democratically to rack up enormous gains in the early voting in order to to mitigate the effects of the day of election day about it, but the news in Florida is that the early and mail in voting is is again tightening the Republicans are, in fact In person, early voting republicans are armed register. Republicans. Leading Democrats by a couple hundred thousand, whereas or not actually not that many like fifty sixty
and that, in the voting by male democrats, are leading Republicans by several hundred thousand, but that its closer than people anticipated or that you know until Democrats are panicking and Republicans are getting kind of weirdly, confident but there's a problem with the logic of this, because, if republicans are turning out to vote early, that means by definition. They're gonna be fewer of them. Voting on election day that the election day overwhelming election day numbers depended on Democrats, oddly enough doing better in the early voting than they're doing now, unless trumpets gonna win Florida and a landslide, which is very unlikely to be the case so well. You read about this. These kind of t leave tee leaf readings of early voting. The fact that everybody everywhere, including in Texas in various other place
This voting early means. This will Democrats aren't gonna come add on election day and only were hobbled guns are come on election day. Maybe it terribly flawed theory, nobody you. What do you think? I don't think it's a terribly solitary. I mean I guess I as you put it. The scenario you put to us Donald Trump will do better than is anticipated when all the votes are finally counted but again into the you can get deep into the conspiracy weeds here about how you know. Pennsylvania's going gonna be counting votes nuts three days after the election, and they got it can come in whenever his lungs are postmarks, so we're not even if the race comes down to, for example, Pennsylvania. We won't know four for several days and there will be plenty of opportunity for mischief there but from what we ve seen based on the really voting totals Democrats are doing very well
Donald Trump was expected to an election day by between ten and twenty points and were within that range, and the poles are still right right. But I'm just saying that if republicans are turning out and forced to vote early, the notion then there are also going to vote. They're gonna win election day by ten to twenty points, because it's not the Democrats aren't gonna vote on election day. It's that they were more get out. They were saying they were gonna vote early for the most part we do have numbers or it is a terrible metric for that. If a terrorist Riah afforded arrive, have Jeffson teen early the threat right, there's a pull out from the university was concept which has some. which does Michigan Wisconsin Pennsylvania that shows that among those who can tell the pollsters that they voted early- and these are small samples- lay two hundred each but because
margins are so lopsided. You can serve trust that they're they're pretty close to the mark. If they were closed, you couldn't trust the numbers, but it's like seventy five to ninety percent are voting, are voting for Biden and in those states in those three states like ninety percent Raby nine percent Pennsylvania, seventy seven, seventy five in Michigan Wisconsin, you know the truth, Is that if those numbers I don't know when early voting ends or how this works, but. those numbers, are like prettiest shit, you're not supposed to read, tea leaves about early voting cause. You don't know how what turnouts gonna be like on election day, but if you can bank and early lead
You know of seventy of that. You basically have to make all that up to just get it even and then fight for every vote that goes down down the road. So once again, it seems more as likely that Biden is gonna win a landslide, as that Trump will somehow. You know basically scratch out of hard scrabble victory in the electoral college. I'm all that that, I think, is the one piece of evidence that we go can glean from this without these early voting numbers, which, by the way are you can pass a federal law for this. But this notion that we know whose voting by party is terrible. This is a terrible thing that we know whose voting by party You know we're not supposed to know anything about the vote. A fish when us was that official numbers about what voters are and who they are and what their like
it's a secret ballot and such as the count. That means who these people are like so you then no well. Ok, we got a jump. Jan up, this number of votes that number of votes. This is a terrible precedent that is being set. Think I mean. Obviously a present already been set because some of these states doing some of these states. Don't do it, but you know there should be some kind of good government movement to ban the. You know the counting by ballot by party member, because I ate out this is just information the party shouldn't have in that we shouldn't have about voters. We should have no one for me. about voters whatsoever unless is supplied voluntarily, you know in exile. Poland has that for good government stuff, Well, as someone who's being relentlessly harassed and text, messages for local elections here in Dc Ivan totally support that they had not so wildly wrong about. You know
in relation to it by the Panthers Constance economy, unstring tax money. Ok. Well, we got. We got that we got two weeks ago. We dont want to bore you so because we're just Basically we talk about the same stuff every day, so we're gonna try to find new angles: travel without Gussy it up all that, so I'm gonna call close to this for April Stephen now, I'm John put words, keep the camel burn
Transcript generated on 2020-11-04.