« Commentary Magazine Podcast

Will Biden Screw Up the Middle East?

2020-12-11 | 🔗
Dan Senor, co-author of Start-Up NationĀ and host of the new "Post Corona" podcast, joins us today to talk about the electoral college and who intimidated whom (answer: Democrats sought to intimidate Trump electors in 2016) and how the transformative Abraham Accords might be derailed by a Biden administration just as Bibi Netanyahu finds himself in existential trouble as his trial is getting ready to begin. Give a listen.
This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
Welcome to the Commentary Magazine Daily podcast today is Friday December weapons. Twenty twenty. I jump on hordes the editor commentary magazine with me, as always senior writer, Christine Rosen High, Christine John Associate editor nor Rossman Heine, our executive editor A green waldheim adjourned and joining us today offer common, Terry roasts D and a host of a new wonderful new podcast called Post corona are for,
dancing or hide their John, I'm imagine said we will say Hi John. I listen to you guys like multiple times a week say hi John. Now I get the same by John Kyoto talk about where we encourage you to to. visit the site where you get a few free reeds, and then we asked Rob absolutely commentary beautiful, old outcome, beautiful If you subscribe to get a beautifully published designed magazine in your mailbox how many times a year eleven times you you haven't time. Dan is the best prepared guests ever January, just lamenting how you lack uniformity in Europe. Clearly, I had only one body, that's correct, that's correct! You know, and also history lacks uniformity, knows just
pointing out- I mentioned this the other day that, with all of this talk about the efforts to steal our democracy in the aftermath of the twenty twenty election, that no no was just being forcibly recall. him. The fact that in twenty sixteen in December of twenty sixteen, when the electoral college met to affirm the vote, total and the victory of Donald Trump- that in fact though he had one three hundred and six electoral votes on election night, based on the way that the states allocate the vote and them and who one those states that, in fact, when the dust had cleared
on electoral college Voting Day doll drums, not the number of electors who voted for tromp was three hundred and four, not three hundred and six, and that an additional five electors on the democratic side did not vote for Hillary Clinton. Seven electors were faithless out of the five hundred and thirty eight, the largest number in apparently intellectual college history, and here we are a twenty and there's all this effort stuff, you know, served screw around with the electoral college or whatever, and somehow it has been thrown down the memory hall that this happened in twenty sixteen and Noah. Who was the person who champion this effort to get electors who work docks? Who had their addresses published in
papers and on line who were put under immense pressure trump electors after the tracing selection. Who was the leader of this effort, I've done. Apparently one of them was Christine policy daughter lives, are activists, Documentarily, gods This was just an aside that was in a political peace this morning about the Oh colleges, meeting next week, buttons as a working Biden's binds electors, have the strategy to avoid any shenanigans and make sure that they get the majority. The electoral college and as an aside sort of like in paragraph fifteen, it talked about well in the mines electors there their facing some pressure, but nothing like the the pressure that electors faced in twenty sixteen from Anti Trump forces. Why I remember this at all: I've, no recollection of this night click through that up to the mark. All about this. It describes,
real, concerted effort on the part of celebrities and democratic politicians and activists, and even Republicans, we're just company by Donald trumps. Victory too. Do exactly what trumpet seeking to do now is to force the electoral college enough electors the faithless so that you don't have a majority in the electoral college, which would throw the election to the House of Representatives same plot same plan different actors- and I dont know only Dont remember this: there was none remotely, like the kind of garment rending consternation over the threat that this represents to the very fabric of democracy. Ok well, the difference here is that in twenty sixteen, there was one reason adjudged for why the electoral college electors should change their vote in and make this happen, which was that Hillary Clinton had won the popular vote that wasn't, that dog,
tromp, I'm an obviously implicitly was Donald Trump was so awful that you should chain. I'm I'm sorry. I got an Iraqi there, because not only that it was, there were seven nine democratic electors and one republic and calling for an intelligence breathing on Russia. his role in the election ahead of the vote,. There wasn't just about the popular vote it was about interference in the TWAIN? Sixteen election g? So there you go, but none the less. The the logic that led to the initial idea that Hillary Clinton had been robbed of
presidency, was that she won the popular vote and that this was wrong, that it was wrong that someone could win win by two percentage points nationally and not take the presidency, and so now the logic of trumps position is that the election was rigged. votes were stolen and switched around, and that rules were changed and all that and therefore somehow all of this should be overturned in whatever fashion you want to try. You want to try Texas suing other states. You want to try changing growing at the vote in Pennsylvania or Georgia. All these all these I, whenever it is whatever used or against the wall to stick, there is no specific idea that I dont think is even minimally defensible unless you accept the fact
that ninety thousand votes in Pennsylvania were improperly Caston. A bunch of votes in Georgia were improperly cast and that that because- and this is the other interesting because the media were so biased against trump- that somehow the election itself was unfair, which is something I'd, say, Megan Kelly kind of said this morning in a tweet. Somehow I remember the the media being unbelievably unfair, Ronald Reagan to George H, W Bush to George W Bush and none the nonetheless, while Reagan winning forty nine states. One thousand nine hundred and eighty four so people who are helping, who don't remember this, don't understand how the legacy media in the 1980s there were like five major institutions, not us a billion on the and then on the internet, and they were so uniformly hostile to Hagen. That saying that I mean that to say nothing about twenty. Sixteen right,
so damn what, where do? You were What's your view of all this, I am reminded of a conversation I had in the middle of the two thousand sixteen democratic primaries with with a senior executives at a cable news channel. The let's just say, is not Fox news. nor, nor is it news max or only end, and he was this was before his deep in the primary and it was when the cable networks were covering the hell out of Trump, but no one thought he would actually work. And this senior executive was lamenting how what a ratings does after a Hillary Clinton presidency will be and he was just he assumed she was gonna when the primary and she is simply no in the general and then he he just thought. After, like eight years of like ratings Bonanza covering Obama, it's gonna be ratings, death ratings famine and I
I think a lot of these executives feel the same way about heading into the Biden Prince presidency after four years of tromp. So they just can't let go so there's any kind of controversy or outrage it's going around Trump. These are like the last days before the curtains clothes for these four, these cable channels and they just and infer political twitter. So they cannot stop covering every little detail. However, disproportionate is too They covered a similar issue into any sixteen. So it's you know it's that their business, models hanging in the balance that don't you think that condition will persist. I mean Donald Trump wants to be a shadow president in out of the White House. Don't you think every media institution will cover him that way. For that very reason, I think it
sittings are gonna. Try right, I mean I think, you're gonna. Try! I mean this is through their hanging on here and them whatever gift he'll give em they will happily take. I think there were wrong twenty. Sixteen two, by the way, because we celebrate Biden, is not terribly controversial, but Hillary Clinton. surely was and would have been as president emitter there would have been plenty to cover. And Oregon. Also yeah is contentious issues coming up. Oh yeah, Whatever had been able, Mademoiselle biodiverse back right, yet let alone could get me its own guilt, exactly you're, not part of the region, that there will be a lack of excitement in the in the surrounding the by the Minister My view is something that damn appointed a friend of my may go. couple. By months ago, I wrote a column about how everybody in Washington was, you know, ancient, you know the trumpet. Seventy four and was seventy seven,
A Mcconnell was seventy. Seven Pelosi was eighty Stani higher was eighty in no other that, basically, you know had this german talk receive this running running America and so get this here. Here's the line up of the incoming Biden Amiss Russian Tom Veal Sack the returning secretary of agriculture, seventy John Kerry running the climate change portfolio, seventy seven JANET Yellin, the new Treasury secretary, seventy four, General Austin, the incoming defence secretary, sixty seven Marcia five. I came? I remember what cabinet job she got anywhere. Remember I heard of eyes: had sex sixty sixty eight and then get the staffers at the White House. Ok, Susan Rice, New Gonna have the the M
They also council fifty six wrong claim the chief of staff, fifty nine, your attendance at Allenby. Fifty. The reason I bring this up is that that doesn't sound old, but in point of fact the White House staff has often startlingly young. You know hold on an Ehrlichman were in their forties. Would Nixon Jake Sullivan's young Jigsaw that is right when he has in this for easily supported you already Korea right. The other thing that striking about this is at what didn't bite say, the put his presidency was, can be a transition like a transition for this new generation of democratic leader that he was going to empower and elevate. The mayor peed, since all these young, rising stars and literally, would have to be. Every position is being film filled by basically someone who had a job in the Obama administration already
one appeared to Joe Biden. They are allowing young yeah, it's all yours, I might remind my mother, my my mother, who is who is ninety three on occasion, will say something about somebody and shall say: oh she's, a really nice girl and I'll, say: mom she's, seventy five years old, he too! she's ninety three, so anyone new at seven needs a kid. You know she's a kid. So yeah Look at around these. Like that Marcia Fudge, I mean she's, really hot up encumber percent, yet right now beginning his I want, though, isn't it isn't that he can't find talented The ones who are the young hungry new Democrats are ideologically far more radical than he is a you actually do. Have Alexandria, Cassio Cortez, giving interviews
today, whining about there's like I'm, not seeing a cabinet. That looks like the way I wanted to look, and you know do it too. He does have that problem. It will use Amazon Collision he's also held back to some extent by what happened in the in the congressional actions are right. I mean there are people in the house that he could point to permanent jobs, but the democratic majority in the house is five seats. Seeking work. I just want to see, as we still fragile, the fudge is probably in a safe sea, but let's say you took Alyssa Slacken from Michigan who could beast? Who is a sea age and who could say she could take for CIA? That's a swing district, so he can afford to take a less slacken
You other stuff, like that. The Senate is like to employees. Also members in the house who recently lost MAX rose people like that young moderates, who are deftly young and they're out of the of the of the ideological demographically Christine's dogma Theo, see crowd. Who would be interesting? but I think it's more of a comfort level thing I mean these are big poorly hugh. He just put her head above the vizier Obama's chief of staff at us. Mcdonough I mean it's. This is like a home weak. I mean it's like it's. It's all these obey our alumni, that he just was myth why Susan Rice Head of the domestic Policy council, that's like perplexing to Missus, Josh, barrows, unified theory of buttons, appointments which I like, which is that they have a list of people that they will know and like, and they have a list, jobs and they're just drawn line matching people up, and it doesn't really matter what their skill sets Arthur. Just people that the president is comparable with men in the present. What do you know my?
am I to jobs and in government one. I was a speech right for Reagan and then very briefly, I helped set up the Office of National Drug Control Policy for Bill Bennett under enough at the beginning of the Bush administration. For like a couple of months and that that office didn't exist, Red hadn't existed, it was, it had been inspected, and so we were literally setting it up and We had this literally we we were creating an orange over like five of us who had been hired a below Bennet to sort of one thing to be, but part of running things and there was no work chart and their wooden and the jobs were being set up, and so at some point the guy who was like the administrative director was, was looking at a charm, and he was putting things around and he sort of like made me head of the in the budget office and I said to him Bruce,
like I can't balance my own cheque book, you can't make it out of the budget office because, like ok and then he moved another guy men, there It said bookies either we're all our like late twenties and I was like he doesn't he even on a car. Like you, I don't think you understand what we're talking about here. but this game of. Like just you know here you have people in here. You have jobs, and you, Sir, this is a classic old political hack thing. You know it's like hook Susan. What job you know everything works by itself anyway, you know! No one really does anything locked in.
At them. Biden is fulfilling his promise to get back to business as usual, built build bank matter right, yeah yeah, that is, it is kind of startling, now get getting to issues of actual policy Dan. As the author co, author of start up nation, the most probably the most important book written about Israel in the english language in our time in a bookshop deposits, you know kind of predicted that the kind of nimble ever changing diplomatic possibilities that baby Netanyahu has now brought to fruition. obviously the biggest one here that were inclined to give America all the credit for this are the the Abraham accords had
huge announcement yesterday that Morocco has basically now decided to normalize or is normalizing its relationship with with Israel. To what extent do you do look, This I think this is just like a gigantic package that has been sent like a gift package has been sent to Biden. in the form of a of a of a new and an exciting Middle EAST Am, and what is he gonna take after they give us rode away, I mean he there such sense of momentum to it. Now I'm in Morocco is the fourth country, and in a couple of months- and I spoke to a senior Whitehouse official yesterday said, do you know,
This week we have one or two more like ready to go now clashes. Are they gonna run out of time before they had the softer Biden, but they also believe that they can have a map the taken hand over to the by the administration of had it at a keep. Closing these and obviously the motivation is for some of these countries politically. The Sunni Gulf is around the common thread of Iraq, but it's also Lee you know too, which, referring to earlier it's it's, that they these countries lookin. They see a silicon valley sitting in their region that they ve been shut off. From I mean they could fly to Silicon Valley, which is twenty outright basically twenty hour flight from from the golf or they could have a direct flight. It's three hours away and it's one of the most important innovation ecosystems in the world, and so they just and they have huge problems to solve these countries. I mean throughout the region throughout the Middle EAST, whether its agriculture issues, they need Agri, Tech, the need water, take the need, food security, they need cyber security, they need the totally undisturbed and vintage financial times
digital health mean sector after sit by the way. Every one of these areas is a an israeli veto. Sweeten Israelis, like Israel, will House so they're just sitting there saying why can't we be doing this, I met with a a member of the Saudi Royal family? I won't say who two and a half years ago and We were talking about the innovation, the kind of Israel's innovation story, the tour meeting about, and he said I ll, never forget his. He said there's as far as we are concerned. There is the future in the Middle EAST and there's the past, and Israel is the future, and the Palestinians are the past. We want a ban on the future mean those that are. I wrote down, I was struck by it, and so these countries have all decided they want in they won in on this strategic cooperation and the intelligence sharing. And they want in on the innovation partnerships, and so so
this train is leaving the station. All the bind administration can do to your question. John is screw it up, and I don't see why they would want to screw it up. I mean I think they will, but what could they do? They could put more pressure on is regimes in the on these governments in the in the Sunni Gulf in China Gulf States about their own. You know internal policies, domestic passage which Trump hasn't done. They could beat up these countries, in terms of how their operating the region like in Yemen and elsewhere, which the Trump Administration basically hasn't done. So they could start mocking around with these countries and should have distract them and a lot of if governments in I should mention it's about IRAN, it's about tech, innovation and its about baby. In other words, BBC Stock was high in trumps. Washington, It was in their these governments interest to kind of get some of the baby. Man
dust spread around them as they pursue whatever policy agendas that they wanted to pursue. Should a partnering with baby was good for them in Washington and they may decide it pardoning with baby now doesn't get them as much capital in watching them. China, then why some of the arab countries may be distracted or die I'll back the momentum a little bit, but I dont think it'll be much so if this thing gets headed off course, I think it's gonna be because of the binding team. It is remarkable the extent to which people in Washington who presume to speak for arab interests, don't know arab interests to talk about this conflict as though its other the pre an issue in the region when people in Europe say it's not so yesterday. Bravo decision some consternation over the hill. frustrating that resulted in it the preceding this announcement, Donald Trump announced that the United States would recognise moroccan sovereignty over disputed territory in western Sahara
Any scientist and people saying all this, as you know, in an assault on air of interest that this is directly contravene the kind of self determinism that we should be supporting in these regions. What have you guess what the mullahs position is on what on western Sahara? They think it's moroccan, They say that it should be moroccan further. They recognise it as moroccan territory. They just don't know it just above that it's it's a somewhat ridiculous contention too, to be against it deem recognition of moroccan sovereignty, Aramis and the Polisario front of the Polisario is is a left. Is it's like a throwback from the seventies? It's a leftist Algerian, backed front that presides over some really nasty refugee camp.
I'm saying today that our asked a breeding ground for jihad I'm so there is. There is a very good national security interests that is being achieved in recognise in recognising moroccan sovereignty over the western Sahara as well, but also in every one of these deals go back thirty, forty There is always some horse trading between there wasn't major horse trading in the in the camp, David accords with Egypt between Carter and said There wasn't major horse trading with King Hussein during in the context of these really Jordan, jordanian peace accord it that it was the same reaction, a high when, when when they became a cordial for sounds a hot. This is just about you age, just doing it to get at thirty five, it's like in every one of these deals there are. There are again items that are not necessarily directly germane to the context of the agreement that the arab government asks for in gets, and this is no different, but you know
I mean that that's interesting. We go back to the to the camp David Accords. The United States found itself on the hook for a couple billion dollars a year and direct AIDS, Israel, because what Egypt's, what Egypt got for the camp David, O K, was the restoration of its oil in the Sinai. And so therefore you know the United States has as fundamentally, I don't know where we now its thirty years later I mean that's an plus. It may have a hundred billion dollars in plus a major directly package, Egypt yeah, would have two billion a year later, the second largest recipient of foreign aid, like it was a pretty good deal for so that yeah, and so obviously you know Morocco. This is Morocco wanted. As far as we know, there is a single senator
right. There is a single senator in the: U S: edge, M M half who who is who is web transfixed by this issue and the end. So it's not as though there is some kind of domestic market for Lee looking hard at how we're handling the you of the question of of Morocco Sub purity, but but it mean that their so the indicators that are both fascinating musing to me in terms of how how real this is. It's not just government to government between Israel, Israel in the and the arab states, but I'm talk more about those, the Sunni Gulf States, it's really people to people. I mean with the with when you know Dennis Raw said after these really palestinian accords in NATO camp
one thousand and ninety three Oslo. He bet you know when he was looking back. He says one of the failures was: it was never people to people, it was basically the Clinton Ministration were being in Paris and are fought and we never actually got the populations. The civilian populations kind of interacting and working together and developing non government related relationship that is already happening between the go populations in Israel. I mean it's story after them that I was I was speaking in a webinar there is real Democracy institute the other day in one of one of the economist from Islamic and tat the buzz right now is the is the best way to deal with. Israel's traffic problems is to announce a tech com. Prince in Abu Dhabi or D by like there's just these floods of Israelis. Going to Abu Dhabi divide like every week and vice versa, but my favorite one I just saw the other day. This is so so all these MRI, he's in Bahrain ends in, and you know I sum
quietly Saudis are excited to be doing business with Israel. So this is a member Emma Roddy Royal family just but purchased out. If you saw this a fifty percent steak and bake tar, these re, the ones the Jerusalem israeli soccer team- is out so shake I'm had been Khalifa underhand who's, not speak for them. but he's a member, the royal family in the government and want to happen. It wouldn't happen. He is now a fifty percent owner, of an israeli Socrates and the bait. Our soccer team has this like cultured, like this right wing nationalist sobbing, just not just like he pick like the TEL Aviv soccer team. We pick this pretty hard core. Ms Rocky, in a pretty ideologically right soccer fan culture that thought into and here's a statement. The statement is amazing. He says he says I moved to be. Partner in such an esteemed club and such a city, the capital of Israel, and one of holiest cities in the world, so I mean this is happy new year
Yet another leader from our cameras, Bahrain, or you eight year, made women leaders from both who were asked. You're doing all these transactions now with Israel and you're, Economies have opened up to one another. How do you feel about importing goods that are manufactured in the in the territories and settlements and they They were all on the record, saying we're fine with it. We were we're not gonna Barney, any imports from and they're saying this Al Jazeera, so the degree to which this is taking off and its real. It's not it's puppeteered by the offer to sell F thirty five wheel. I my I have this email, I'm looking at. I got yesterday at one thousand one hundred and sixteen a dot m from a website called totally jewish travel com, Ok, so that that you're, talking about like business investments like my head, was ok, so it's an ad pace
in Dubai and Abu Dhabi, Kate, the lux more. Twenty six the April fifth, twenty twenty one blot my had hidden luxury hotels tours private sailor, sheer each family, entertainment contact at came to start gum, cables, do by dot com now imagine but I had told you six months ago worth seven months ago that I would have this email in my inbox right for a glut, kosher. pace ass in Dubai and Abu Dhabi which Urim? Now and I don't know dad you're, probably gonna go you're, probably be speaking you'll, probably you and you, and you and your brother in law, sourcing or probably be speaking in July at it at that do you want a better grognon I'll. Just tell me a couple days ago, you learned over she bought last weekend that
number of heredity families in Israel, who have weddings and in are under enormous pressure because they can hold large weddings. Now in Israel to rating families are holding the planning, their weddings for their kids in Dubai and Abu Dhabi, so is really heroic. Redeem flying to do by here I mean it out so that it that ended of itself express serve, suggests. A kind of readiness on the part of the of of both spoke as family, get outside the populations of do by an obvious welcoming Jews with open arms exactly but but they are, they are ready for commerce
concert and connections between these two formerly entirely separated people rock as an interesting case, because Morocco has been privately ripe, wouldn't than exactly say it's an ally. Morocco has certainly been is the was the friendliest of thee and when you would call north and north african country mister turtle to Israel over the last half century and, and it certainly does not- has not been governed by an attitude of of of serve. You know hostility like it said, that's a transaction relationship. They do things together a me. They have connections together and have been much more pacific them in in other places, but it he'll striking, because it's it's it's not one of these Gulf countries, whose main fear is that IRAN is gonna. In the hay during blow up or do something-
to them. This is what this is much more along the lines of what you're talking about. Is that the Middle EAST is ready to move on from this period? And the question is: are we gonna somehow gum up the works on the agenda for its follow you not in the many these countries? Now it's like that, they fear of missing out. They won't hear one in the parade yeah. You don't occurs to me and talk about the so you know there is society at the end of the cold war, that free or markets and more
business and investment in Russia and the former soviet States and China would lead to a political opening in its did it in a huge part that did not come to pass I've written about at various points. Others have as well in some sense that did work in the gulf. To some degree I mean I mean the v, the huge building and commerce and tech activity in the.
The Emirates preceded this, and I think we should force them out into the world in a different way. Yeah. I agree with that. Only add is that the show so the broader arab world market, twenty to twenty three countries? Nearly you know you time it up a market and addressed by market of five six hundred million people consumers. That market is one of the most underserved markets on the consumer internet I mean it's, it's really. It's Back and still so you are, YE has been- has been building a little bit of an ecosystem attack ecosystem to serve at market and build companies that could become like the dominant player. In all these different vertical in in the broader Middle EAST, but with a couple of exceptions, they haven't really pulled it
of pulled it off, because they're, not graded, building companies from the bound from the ground up should have scrappy start up entrepreneurial companies and their tax is not very deep. They have a huge aren't deeper and it's hard to just saw that our deep round by spending from your sovereign wealth funds and trying to drive down? You need liked the critical mass of engineers- and you know that so you e in many countries- the region- don't have it. Israel gives them both of those. Israel gives them entrepreneurs who know how to build companies, and it gives them aren t both services, companies and and mentor engineer perspiring engineers in the arab world. So I mean a lot of the chatter now is in the USA, among in the Tec ecosystems. Let's go build companies now to target the whole region. No one's nailed this. Yet we want to be the ones to nail it and we ve got partner in the world, because we ve got, we ve got the second most important innovation ecosystem,
without sight of Silicon Valley, so yeah, I think be upside for them is, is pretty massive. What is assuming that binding doesn't bungle this terribly. At this economic outreach continues in an flourishes. What does that mean for the on that a success here in the: U S for the baby s movement for the for the sort of pro Palestinian, ideologically motivated campus activism. That actually here has had a fair amount of success in changing and disallowing. Certain things to even be discussed, I e that seems to be at the same time that this opening in those these successes are happening, you see anything altering that or is he I think I think it makes it very hard to normalize the media s narrative when there's all this calabria in and between the arab world in Israel, and I also think
there's gonna, be no movement on the palestinian track. So I I actually very sceptical that the binding ministration is gonna move aggressively to try to reach put pressure on Israel to reach some kind of israeli palestinian I think they will do something still undo some of the things that that try to undo some things that the Trump did they want. the embassy back to tell of Eve, but they may reopen the consular the Consulate office in Jerusalem to service. The Palestinians, though, restore some the funding for like these hospitals in the palestinian territories, and so do small things. I think, but They do their formerly reopen the palestinian diplomatic Office and why he didn't small and symbolic, but what I don't think they are going to do by administration is expand alive. capital trying to pressure Netanyahu, assuming he still Prime Minister and a boss to reach a deal. I I don't think
talk to some of the incoming Biden. Folks, they have no under no illusion that they can bet on Abbas and the Palestinian Authority, so they do not believe there is a deal to be done and and so I think, the combination of all this collaboration and the by the own. I think willingness to do anything. You know aggressive and ambitious. on the palestinian track. It's the media. Moving we'll still be around it'll, probably start to some more strident cause. They're gonna be desperate, but they're not to gonna, be become less main stream, because here You can have a democratic administration in office. It's not really doing anything to advance their agendas.
So yeah I mean you saw some of that stridency by the we recently and if he has followed this were peace now, which was like the original left wing. Quantum quote pro Israel pro peace organisations at the precursor to J Street, so they were hosting an event in an on the anniversary of Yitzhak Rabin. Assassination totter, Yitzhak Rabin and Ale see was supposed to speak out and she pulled out at the last second and she pulled at the last second, because he was informed by your staff that eats up Rabin was, was you know, responsible for brutal human rights abuses of Palestinians when he was defence minister when he was a general and you know it, and so so that that's what I mean it's like in and only professional peace processors in Washington were in a hook set of came of age and the Clinton administration were horrified. You know they're so sad and disappointed
Do you know the neat understand Yitzhak Rabin? Was a man of peace and corrected his ways and Bob that? But I guess what within a risk is that background is shifting beneath their feet and at an the the it needs to be critical of Israel is now you have to be show strident to be critical of Israel, and I think the stridency remove more directly in a more striking direction. Is this the critics of his will be more desperate, for other reasons were talking about, but I also need to be more marginalized. What I wanted cool? But if I were, you serve alluding to have a baby Netanyahu's future. But first let me talk to you about today sponsor the bond some group, I'm just gonna talk to you, a stray like I've, been talking to you straight about what I've heard about finance advice and financial investment and how the vast majority of professional advisors are pretty bad and for a number of reasons
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The bonds and groups weekly investment commentary at Dividend CAFE: dot com read its daily market updates at We see today dot com check out the bonds and group, for they were fresh, an antidote to the laziness and intellectual spaghetti this. Today's investment advice, industry, that's the bonds and group where an actual. Now. My worldview sits on the foundation of the best investment advice in the industry, check out dividend, Deaf, cafe, dot com and the DC today dot com to get to know the bonds in group today for your wealth management needs so then There's a lot of ferment in Israel, given that now whose party we could thus be Moreover, the capacity that late speak earlier, whether recently Get on Sars. Adding some party is now starting. His own party, there has been a meal, move on. Babies are right flank, at least in public opinion terms by enough tally, Bennet his former aid, who has
also has a party everybody's got party babies trial, I think, as scheduled, for January, assuming that you know Covid, nineteen push it back still further, and so there are he's being he's he's been indicted in three cases of influence. Peddling and gimmickry. Are these, I think, are really lousy cases at least an american context. It'll be lousy cases. God only knows what they're like in the israeli context time. What will go, won't go into detail, but how much
of obviously Israel's a functioning democracy and it no one person is responsible for everything would be me has been prime Minister now for eleven years and, and this time coincides not only with the kind of retirement of the Palestinian of the direct confrontations between the Palestinians and Israel, or at least have for the last six years in any serious fashion, but also the rise of the the maturation of the startup nation. That is the subject of your book, which I think was published just before babies, whose it was publish late, two thousand and nine, which rights obedient just basically taken. We are, he gotten re formed a government just after Barack Obama got elected, so right, yeah, so right
in its most recent roused. The startup nation, the growth of Israel's tech sector and the start of nation was a real thing that he came into office. Paralleling Anne had played role in as the finance minister in the Sharon government in terms of doing some, deregulating and all of that, but how much of it there is real, is now as the twenty seventh richest country in the world and all of this diplomatic ferment. What kind of danger is that placed him by babies, trial and the possibility that you know he he might leave the scene show for baby? Could, dear B tell it he is. The car book should have been called startup nation, the baby Netanyahu story- I mean hee hee, hee, hee hee, believes he he deliver for this innovation revolution to Israel, and I do this,
when he was finance Minister under Sharon. He did do a lot of good star fun on on and welfare reform, on deregulation, on privatizations on on tax cuts in certain areas so he he helped liberalize. is really economy still needs a lot of liberalizing, but he did some good work. I think the Tec, whom or that the seeds for the Tec, whom well predated baby and while predated really any of the major israeli politicians, show I dont think baby was responsible for the Tec boom in terms of being a really important part of Israel's economy and a really serious global player in the global where I think Netanyahu deserves enormous credit is taking this. You know this natural resource. If you will israeli human capital and like it's a tech to Israel,
like what oil is to Saudi Arabia. Right he's taken the tete boom in Israel and used it for GEO political leverage, and that has been, I believe, his genius and- and I think so much before you get that of so much of these openings around the world have been diplomatic breakthroughs. Have and the resulting nothing. Yet what we look at India now we take it for granted that India and Israel are locked arms now. I know there are two years ago think India was? The indian government was like part of the like one of the campaign managers of either the orkut. You know what one of the symphony conductors of the non aligned movement in the? U N General Assembly, organizing all these anti Israel votes in the? U S, in our assembly, India had terrible toxic relations with Israel. Two thousand seventeen nothing yet who travels to India, brings delegation of business leaders from
real economic experts, tech, gurus- and you know he figured out- is India The huge water problem may have huge agricultural problems in and he had set up. He'd use the Tec Community in Israel, particularly in drip irrigation and a cup of other areas to set up all these There is of excellence around India and he basically calculated that if we can help these farmers in India increase their yields by law five or six times you could have a second agricultural revolution in the sub continent and this delicate. Ocean led by nothing Yahoo, went to India and they were driving. I spoke to someone they sleep, they couldn't believe it. Moldy was taking around to these villages in, like tens of thousands of indian farmers, were showing up to greet them like they were the Beatles and it's nothing you up and then a year and a half later, Netanyahu had Modi come to Israel and and so on, and they have is the stuff
The eco innovation that India and Israel are doing is is quite something, and I can go like literally continent by continent has been doing. This in Europe has been doing it all throughout Latin America, he's been doing it in Africa. He's women. He visits. It was a period about a year and a half ago he was visiting a different african country like every other month was for Sunday ever received an israeli leader. What do they want from Israel? They want this. They want access to this tech ecosystem and I think he's been very savvy about how to take this step ecosystem and you know, use it to produce diplomatic relationships and diplomatic breakthroughs and It has a self fulfilling. You know it it's if it becomes circuitous because, as he's diplomatic breakthroughs happen, it makes it easier for these countries to do business with Israel and so that further fuels, the the you know, the Tec economy. In Israel as well, start? The just blew me away just in the news is weak, so we rode startup nation that the big whopping number was. It is really
bracted, about two to two and a half billion dollars in now in global venture capital meals get busy all this innovation capitals. Fourthly, Swash, where the world, Israel's attracting couple billion of it, which, on a per capita basis, was the high said the world higher than higher than the? U S, there were just just numbers out now that Bloomberg reported earlier this week. Israel's attracting close is on track to this year, attract ten billion dollars in global venture capital, quaint five, four five what they were doing a decade ago that all happen under Netanyahu. It also happened before the israeli the sectors that Israel's playing in a real really matter, a lot to wear the global economy is going, especially during cove. It actually been, especially as the changes during covered. So so there's a lot of money, but he deserves credit for taking
for really opening up, allow these relationships that I think, make it easier for investors from around the world to feel comfortable and not feel any political stigma with investing in Israel because their own governments are r are welcoming Netanyahu with open arms. So I guess the question is: if this has matured over the course of the last ten eleven years. Can it and you say it's her circuitous or ignore its reinforces itself. How dependent is it on him? I mean, let's say something happens, and here he is convicted and has to leave. Office does get on SAR know. This does the add enough Taliban who himself worked in tech. Does he know it do any of the other people in israeli politics? No it one of them Main slaps on baby is that he, in order to acquire
power and hold on to power. He has made it. He has not made any followers. He has not he's an abandoned partnership, yes, no ban. She doesn't want to ban because the bench might turn on him. The way, John major terms, tat your or something, but he may be forcibly either the benchmark be while become there with them the opening squad. If he may become the first team, if he is forced from power, I sold is the lack of a bench in Israel, at least on the right really does depress me. I mean he's. He's he's, sadly done a very good job of doing exactly just said, which is just making sure. No one kind of gets oxygen gets out altitude
I think there are some like Bennett who made a lot of money in tech before before he went to politics, and there are a couple of others who come from the Tec economy who who play in politics but there's nothing other than a couple of them. Like. Bennet there there aren't in others, one around Marguerite using the Labour Party ran for leadership and Labour party. He was a very successful venture capitalists from GDP, which is the gruesome venture partners. Big venture fund in Israel. He left in a ran for leadership labour serving the parliament laws now he's done with politics, he's disgusted by a scumbag was venture fund, so there's, no one who really gets it the way he got it and he got the diplomatic opportunity. The potential geopolitical It was, and he also knows something about the business world. He knows a lot about economics. He went to MIT, he worked at at the boss and consulting group, so he an end because his English is so fluent. He can now only speak
English? But who can speak English in business terms, are speaking business terms in English, so it gives him huge reach. globally and I- and I don't see any one else who has who has that background- has the skills on one hand. On the other hand, I do feel at this point is bigger than baby. I mean the Tec economy, Israel is is really, but you know its own thing and its large. More than any one leader and I- and so I think Israel would be fine- will be more than fine. So then you have you have just launched a couple weeks ago, you launched a new podcast of your own called Post corona, that's an interesting moment for cuz. Of course it comes, and then I give two weeks later we that we now have, I guess, the and see approval or were on the verge of our. You know. on Sunday of the total emergency approval of the Pfizer vaccine. Maybe we followed by the Madonna.
Maxine and so with the idea of your podcast, which you can find on apple stature and wherever you get your podcast post corona is how to look at the world. Were we emerge out of this horrible period, its great you had Billy being on the air, the Brad Pitt portrayed based, called genius who now owns teams all over the world apparently and some other people anyway what was your inspiration and why should people listen like many of us during the first wave March April may
What do we or do we spent a lot of time? Talking with friends and colleagues about me, you know what all this means covert and where its all heading- and I found myself doing that in my day, job at work. I found this of doing it just out of my own kind of intellectual curiosity and I would be talk. People are all these massive changes that can result from covert some really good and some really bad, but there but some of the changes that we were living through, we're gonna out, live the virus and we were too, figure out. What are the ones that really gonna outlive it? So why not? We weren't his injuries the here and now the trans grown up the kind of how we navigate through it. We were interested in in the period one We get through it and we look back and say well. Can we can ever believed? We did that you know so what what will be transformed. So some of some of the sectors were looking at. In fact, working on a episode right now are very exciting to future of healthcare right, so you're talkin about
a the of three point: five, four trillion dollar: U S, industry that, unlike just about every industry in America, has barely been touched by tech. Right travel has been touched by tech. Purchasing tickets for sporting events have been touched by tech ordering packaged goods has been touched by the Tec meeting. Lou we go through every part of our our transactions. In our daily lives. They somehow been touched by tech. Seventy percent of U S. Hospitals today still use fax machines and still male records to get you Seventy per cent of them still rely on fax machines, or they rely on the male right now and they require you, it's so crazy because of regulation, because the power of the insurance companies they require you to go, see a doctor, a doctor's office or go to a hospital for for everything. What is covered done? Most of the people who ve gotten corona virus who have antibodies, actually have never step foot in a doctor's office. I mean obviously one for you,
Symptoms have but the ones who have not had severe says symptoms have been diagnosed entreated at home, with basically the the device of of a telephone with a camera speakers, and it's all been digital Don digitally so, basically in a remote computer, assisted Doc, healthcare diagnostics and health. Our treatment and people seem to really like it so that the number of people in the last six months in the United States who are now being treated for health care needs, digitally has increased dirty fault. I mean just to give you thence all these companies now coming online that are, digital health and telemedicine. Space is both as this sector is a huge sector and is robbing me a lot of startups already in the way, a lot more coming out of his room, a space in so the entire. When you think about how much time you knew you, EC servicing in your in your year, servicing medical bureaucracy and of Anna
All of that or a lot of it is taken away. Think of how many hours you have found in your life and in the lives of your kids and what that does too, but the productivity of our economy so would looking at these sectors where covered is basically taken like what otherwise would have been ten years to digitization and unlike slapped it in period of six months and is here to stay so at unless it Healthcare is opposed I think higher education is another area where you gonna see some real action that could be permanent and then are worrisome once I mean, I think, even episode that we just dumb that we just recorded this posting today on the future of subways. So New York City. I need to tell you all the New York City Subway system is a mass and in its I grew cause not only of of some systems around the world is a microcosm. You know it's a its s, microcosm of New York.
this inertia has said it like. Why hasn't been reform of our public transportation? Why hadn't urban reform of of healthcare? Look this direction towards digital health before covered because there was a sinner show was like people just did, did things the way they did it and what covert did? Is it like flip the inertia so in the case of health doctors and patients that look. I don't have to go to a hospital. I don't go doctor's office, I don't want it would like the doctor's. The positions were on board with this. So, let's quickly move to you know digital care, remote care in the case of subways half of the MTA budget is dependent on riders. Half of it comes from from you know, government authorities in taxes, but have the comes on writing night ridership fares and big chunk of your writers have skipped out of town. They ve left, on all of them, but a lot of them, and there were no
I have to bring them back to town, so the inertia looked the other way and I think the subway system, which is the focus of our most recent episode, is in big trouble because the the there's the brok revenues have dried up. I don't think you're gonna come back. We, even with a vaccine, will will come back somewhat but not as quickly, and I think the empty is gonna, be pressure to cut services, but when they cut services as people trying to return to work. They're gonna see it was a fish situations that turned into a service problem used. Take me eight minutes to wait. Wait for a subway now to take me thirty, five minutes to wait for subway. Forget it I'll, take an uber or I'll or a walk or I'll, take a citi bike, and so I think public transportation is in big trouble. I think digital in other healthcare scene is. Is there some exciting opportunities? We have really been on. As you mentioned, to talk about the future of sports. I think the men would he points out that not to digress, but it's interesting. He points out is the the coveted era will
rise to? If we calculate about one hundred and five sports that people pay attention to in the world the top five of the obvious ones right now, soccer cricket, baseball american Football maybe maybe hockey that an app tennis right golf after that, there's like a bunch of sports. You ve never heard of right professional riding darts, these or other sports with tat which have huge audiences, sir, when windsurfing badminton mean some. So these sports are not on tv. They dont require large audiences and five percent on have any audiences in person, and when there was this complete black out of sports for the first few months, people were so hungry for sports. A number of these sports- you ve, never heard of, took off
on social media and because social media can aggregate these massive audiences. Without having to do tv broadcasts deals, they ve built real audiences and real followings and end the aid. The average age of big Billy points on our episode. The average age of aid of a baseball fan is in their middleweight sixties. This which he says, he's fits that demographic, the average age of someone consuming these sports. I'm talking about on social media, is like in their late twenties early thirties. So some of these some of these sports got huge, lived sports. global sports economy is like, if is like a half a truly into a trillion dollar business. So I think you're gonna see so we have these conversations about. You know: what's gonna, what's gonna get lit up because of covered in a good way and what is in big trouble? in a bad way, but really understanding the changes that have this. So so everybody to your
I guess supplier and subscribe to postcode. Damn sooner, it's been great. Having you fascinating, interesting conversations, everybody have if weekend can for Christine able now, I'm John pot keep the camel burning
Transcript generated on 2020-12-22.