--On the Show:
--Audio leaks connected to Bob Woodward's new book, Rage, expose that Donald Trump knew coronavirus was serious as early as February despite continuing to downplay it publicly for months
--Bob Woodward's new book, Rage, reveals that Donald Trump's former Secretary of Defense, Jim Mattis, told Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats, that "collective action" may be needed to remove Donald Trump
--Notable discussions from the David Pakman Show subreddit, including about the US Postal Service and much more
--Should Bob Woodward have reported the Donald Trump coronavirus coverup sooner than he did?
--Joe Biden's latest proposal will punish companies for offshoring profits and reward companies for bringing jobs back to the United States
--Donald Trump is interviewed by Fox News' Sean Hannity and it goes even worse than we imagined
--A new poll still has Joe Biden leading Donald Trump by 12 in the national popular vote, and we outline a variety of electoral college scenarios
--New polling out of Minnesota has some Democratic strategists worried that Donald Trump could potentially win the state
--Voicemail caller wonders if Trump will keep tweeting, and whether Republicans will start ignoring him, if he loses the upcoming election
--On the Bonus Show: Vacation plans, Trump's Nobel Peace Prize nomination, a pause to coronavirus vaccine trial, 2500-year-old Egyptian coffins found, much more...
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This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
The David Dragnet Shout David Pack, my guarded
seeing the quiet heart out loud has been sort of the theme of the Trump administration and a huge cause of the constant self inflicted damage that Donald Trump has done to himself has come from saying things out loud or tweeted.
Things that he would probably be better off keeping to himself, and it has unfortunately happened again
in conjunction with the release of his new book, called rage investigative,
when Bob Woodward has released audio of a conversations that he had with Donald Trump, during which a lot of things happen, but making
Huge headlines is Donald Trump admitting that he publicly was not telling the truth about corona virus
As early as February for political
reasons now, there's debate as to whether they are good political reasons or bad political reasons. I would argue it doesn't matter that Donald Trump was deceiving the public and it
in a matter of national security. It was Donald Trump wanting it to appear as though he had things
You're control, when he did not, let's go first to the club, and then we will discuss it. Donald Trump admitting to Bob Woodward that at the time fabric
the seventh his belief about corona virus was that it was very serious, even airborne, although publicly,
even for months after this Donald Trump, never egg.
Alleged corona virus being as dangerous as he admits in this clip. Now it's starting out
just all people, but that yesterday, in dangerous day, some most startling facts came out, if not just old older, examined unable to plenty of young people
open here. What is going to give me a moment of talking to somebody going through this work?
she or somebody who kind of it, caused a pivot. In your mind, because its clear just from what's in on the public record that you win
RO appeared on this too. Oh, my god, the gravity is almost inexplicable and unexplainable. Well,
Think Bob really could be honest with you. I want you, Taiwan. It too I wanted to.
Always play it down. I still like playing down yes, because I don't want to create a panic, so there it is its plane is day now. What is the response going to be I'll? Tell you what it is: it's not going to be that the audio tapes have been done.
Good because they clearly have not the argument is going to be not wanting people to panic is something good that Donald Trump does in something.
He has done in general during his presidency. Of course, it is not true when it comes to the Immigrant Caravan Donald trumps strategy was created. Much panic as possible. Make people think
things are as dangerous as possible, even when they are not. When it comes to Joe Biden, America, the strategy is, we want people to panic because its politically advantageous, so there are people I dont know
they're all bad faith actors, but they certainly are making nonsense. Arguments were saying this isn't bad. This is Trump saying hey. I dont want the kind.
We panicking. So I am going to do what I need to prevent the country from panicking, because panic would be bad. That's not what this is. Donald Trump has no problem with the country panicking when it is politically advantageous. Now, there's other clips here in this next
clip Trump is talking Bob Woodward again and Donald Trump ah continues to
I acknowledge that the virus
he's airborne and its far more dangerous than Donald Trump ever admitted, and so what was of president? She saying yesterday
but we're talking mostly about the virus,
and I think he's gonna happen in good shape. But do you know it's a very tricky situation it be? It goes. It goes through air Bob, that's always tougher than the touch and other touch. You don't have to touch things right, but the air you just read the air that tell it sir, the past and so that the very tricky one that a very delicate one is also more deadly than you're. You know, you're, even your strenuous lose. You know, people don't realize we lose twenty
a thousand thirty thousand people a year. Whatever think that right, I know you do not realising what will we do the same thing for more deadly? This is five per. You know this is five percent versus one percent and less than one percent of soap. This is deadly stuff. Now, at the time when Trump said this to Bob Woodward, publicly tromp was saying it's like a seasonal flu. It's going to disappear. Fifteen Kay,
This will soon be zero. It is a straight up lie. The only debate is whether the lie was justified for some reason. I think the answer is clearly no other interesting things asked by Bob Woodward whether racism is he
here in the United States in a way that affect people's lives. Donald Trump replied. I think it is- and I think it's unfortunate, but I believe it is. I think there is systematic or institutional races
in this country. When I got there is everywhere, I think, probably last year than most places or last year that many pleasant, ok, but is it here in a way that it has an impact on people's lives
I think it is unfortunate, but I think it is so trump
meeting there something that again, he has refused to acknowledge publicly and overall, this is a wild book, all sorts of stunning material
from Bob Woodward. We're going to talk later about
report in this book, that Donald Trump former Secretary of Defence, Jim Matisse, Sir,
to the director of National Intelligence Dan Coats that they may need collective action to remove Donald Trump. We're going to talk later about whether Bob Woodward had a responsibility to make some of these elements public sooner than he did we're going to get to all of that, but the top line,
big story that there are even legal scholars. Thing is unimpeachable offence, although puts a question mark for me. What do I know but
The top line is Donald, Trump knew how serious corona viral corona virus
back in February early February, and he didn't acknowledge it publicly, ostensibly claiming to avoid TK
in panic. But we know how that worked out. Tens of me
of Americans to this day still don't think this is a serious pandemic because of
early denial campaign by Donald Trump and meanwhile and tomorrow, I'm going to get to this there's just so much here.
Meanwhile, Donald Trump approval, in all likelihood
is going to remain around forty five percent, because something is very wrong with our country. Donald Trump is admitting. I pretended it was less serious which lead to more death unnecessary and approval is not likely to
I very much too Maison. It's amazing in terms of the indictment that it is of our country. Anybody
in my view, who has not left Donald Trump already is problem
not going to leave him because of this, but I
want to get ahead of myself we're going to get into that tomorrow. Now, meanwhile, you have and will discuss this on the bonus show. Today. Donald Trump is arguing that he should be considered for the Nobel Peace Prize and in
act of far right. Norwegian politician has nominated him for it, on the other hand,
We are wondering whether his handling of corona virus counts as a crime against humanity. That's how disparate the country,
is right now on the issue of Donald Trump. Now, just just one SEC, I want to go back.
Again to the explanation. That is the predominant one in response to this audio witches Donald Trump didn't want to cause panic. That's a good reason to downplay the virus
that is barely better, even if you believe it. I dont believe it, because Donald Trump has no problem causing panic. As I said when he judges is politically advantageous. Immigrant caravan, anarchists in the streets, Joe Biden, America you'll, have a depression like you, ve, never seen before,
from his fine, causing panic when it's good for him, but imagine that it is true that Donald from didn't want to panic Americans
We had more death than we needed, because Americans want panicked, in other words, Americans panicking or what I call taking it more seriously would have saved lives, and the next few weeks could see all
sorts of tapes coming out. There may be more Bob Woodward tapes, my
we'll Cohen may have tapes. There are all sorts of tapes that could be floating around, but again
really. Will it matter tomorrow on the programme, I will argue no, and we will get to that. But first, let's talk about some of the other allegations in Bob Woodward spy
one of the most stunning revelations from Bob Woodward's new book rage, is that Donald Frumps, former secretary of Defence, Jim Madness,
went to the director of National Intelligence Dan Coats and said Dan. The time may come where we need collective action on Donald Trump, which, by every reasonable interpretation, that is code for the cabinet, may have to come together and use the twenty fifth amendment to remove Donald Trump Bob Woodward's book, also alleging that Jim Matisse saw Donald Trump, as quote dangerous and quote unfit and in a separate conversation
recounted by Bob Woodward, Jim Maddest, reportedly said to the Vienna DNA Dan Coats quote. The president has no moral compass to which stand coats replied. True
to him a lie is not a lie: it's just what he thinks. He doesn't know the difference between the truth and a lie. So let's kind of dig in to this at the big
sure level. I'm guessing most of my audience understands its not normal. It's not typical for mould
people thought high, ranking individuals like the Secretary of Defence and the director of national intelligence tube
talking together about hey. We might at some point need to act to remove the president because he is unfit and he cannot lead. That is not typical. That did not happen during Morocco
It didn't happen during George W Bush, although certainly George W Bush, that a lot of things that were absolutely atrocious and end and disgusting, this is not new-
now, what do they mean when they say collective action? By every stretch of of my imagination
It can mean one thing and one thing only, which is the potential use of the twenty fifth amendment to remove a president. Now the twenty fifth amendment it's available. This is a public document as as you, as you know, it S. Four articles in the first three referred other circumstances, where president would have to be replaced, for example, if the present is incapacitated for, for some reason or if a present
where did die. The fourth article of the twenty fifth amendment is the relevant one here in thinking about what Jim matters was talking about and that that fourth, article of the twenty fifth amendment, says that the vice president and cabinet
shows, can vote on the removal of a president if the majority votes for removal, meaning the VP plus the cabinet. A letter goes to the leader these Senate prototype
the speaker of the house telling them. We have voted to remove the president, the press
It is then able to respond if the president disagrees with his removal or her removal, in this case his removal, the press
You can write a letter to the Senate and the House sing. I am fit to serve and then both houses of Congress would have to vote
now, in the mean time, if the vice president's sends a letter saying, I agree that the president is unfit until the House and Senate vote. The vice president becomes acting president of the United States, it sticky edit sloppy and its convoluted, but the point here is Jim Madness that then secretary
Defence brought this to the director of national intelligence and said we may need to do this. We may need collective action
that alone is one of the biggest scandals of the last many decades. The fact that this was a conversation that took place at the highest levels is completely outrageous and out of this world a scandal
the world made sense. Donald Trump would have already resigned, based on everything that by actually, if the world made sense, Donald Trump never would have been elected. Given that he was if the world made sense, the countless scandals that Donald Trump has been involved in would have led to a resignation long ago. The world does not make sense, and instead we are faced
The very real prospect not have Donald Trump removal, but have Donald Trump being awarded another four years and fascinating lit, and that there are trumpets who heard this news that Jim Madame was thinking
we may actually have to remove the sky, and some of those trumpets reacted by saying I told you, the military was planning a coup against Donald Trump. Now, of course, not is gone
I was talking about this in his role as a member of the cabinet happening to be secretary of defence.
This was not a military action that was being considered to cabinet action, but the fact that they will excuse,
anything. They will find a way to say Donald,
from the victim here doll?
billion air guy, but born with a spoon in his mouth has become
in the eyes of many of his followers and in his own eyes, the biggest victim, the most poor
they treated man on earth you would have, he would have you believe it is truly amazing.
I don't want to get ahead of myself, but I'm putting together my thoughts. I don't think this is going to have any impact on Donald Trump and will deal with that tomorrow. In the meantime, what is your react
to these audio leaks. Do you think they will have any bearing whatsoever on the upcoming elections? Let me know on Twitter, where you can find me at De Pachmann De P, O K
The David Bagman show at David Pachmann Dotcom. If you love feeding your intellectual curiosity but you're always struggling to find the time check out one of my all time, favorite apps called Blink IST blinking lets. You consume an entire book on your way home from work. They take thousands of popular nonfiction books, condensed each one into texter audio that you can get through in just fifteen minutes, and you get all of the important core ideas and information from that book. It's perfect! If you don't have enough time to do all the reading you want to do or if you just want to sample a book before you by the entire thing. I recently read a brief history of time, of course, by the great Stephen hawking. This is a book that I have been aware of for so long and other things got in the way
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There are a number of interesting posts from our viewers a couple
of which I want to highlight one user who goes by
the name stressed Matt said: would the cutting of the postal Service hurt Republicans
We know the Democrats are more likely to vote absentee, while republicans are more likely to vote in person, but Republicans are more likely to live in rural areas. Rural areas are the ones are the areas that actually need a functioning postal service, the most
so, given the delays, would it be more likely for a rural voter turnout? Have their ballot delivered on time compared to someone in a city? Well, you have to compare
that which I'm sure you're right about you have to compare that to the disproportionate number of binding
the porters planning to vote by mail and that already accounts for the urban rural divide. So it's it's ultimately
Our problem, my instinct, my instinct, is that still
accounting for the urban rural divide. It is still Joe Biden whose, worse off, if the postal service fails to deliver absentee ballot. That's my instinct, but ultimately it is an empirical quite
Jim would some unknowns and we'd have to think about whether we can actually gather all the data. We need to answer that another post from the sub read it
by user Kay EM aloe. Seventeen who says, can we all just take a more
went to recognise the fact that David is
now less than ten thousand subscribers shy of one million, it is not even ten thousand. In fact, let me take a look. Well were Bobo
talking here. We are now only seven thousand subscribers
shy of one million on Youtube. It's actually looking.
We're going to hit the million during our vacation week, which you know
five years ago, you said
you're, going to hit a million subscribers in twenty twenty, but you'll be on vacation. I would have said there is no
where you could know that, and it does look like that's the way it's going to be, but we ve got some great videos and above
of great congratulatory messages from some of our friends
many of whom you will recognise plan for when we do have one million subscriber. So, yes, we are only seven thousand subscribers away help us once we get to
Lillian. I think things were going to get very, very crazy. In an hour
different ways: Youtube Dotcom, slash the David Pachmann Show and, of course joined the discussion on the David Pachmann Show Sub, read it at David Pachmann,
calm, Slash are edi deity. Ok, let's dig into this Bob Woodward holding the tapes for too long discussion that happening
earlier in the show. I told you about the audio taped revelations that were released yesterday by journalists Bob Woodward. This is sort of part of his new book release rage where he cites a lot of these recorded conversations in the book. He also has
released many of those audio tapes and they are shocking. Donald Trump new Info
worry that the corona virus was far more dangerous than he's ever really admitted, but he was certainly downplaying.
During February publicly saying we ve got five cases. We ve got fifteen. It will see
the zero while privately as he said, to Bob Woodward on February Seventh and around that time. This is very serious. Trumpet the time thought it was airborne.
Trump thought it was hitting more than just people who were older or sicker. It is outrageous. People died as a result of how Donald Trump handle
This publicly many people. There is no question about it. Up. Bob Woodward's investigative reporting continues to break Nous. He's had an incredible career, no question about that, but the question that is being asked is: if Bob Woodward had gone public with that information months ago, instead of now to sell a book, could lives have been saved, in other words, knowing
in March that Donald Trump was still publicly downplaying the virus and knowing that in February privately, he had acknowledged how dangerous it was should Bob Woodward of said, I've got a release, these audio tapes now because it could save lives, and indeed there is it
honey blow back against Bob Woodward, now arguing exactly that that he should have blown the whistle- and you should have said, listen from is saying something publicly.
I M on tape sing something very different, privately some examples: John Stanton, the former Washington Bureau Chiefs, Buzzfeed tweeted, COS
There is no ethical and moral defensive, Woodward's decision to not publish these tapes as soon as they were made. If there was any chance it could save a single life. He was obligated to do so. Bob Woodward put making money over his moral and professional duty Jessica, Human, a reporter for pro public. I tweeted, similarly quote
How differently might trump supporters of acted if this whole time they knew that he knew cove? It was a serious threat. Woodwork could have made that happen in February, Jose Antonia Vargas,
No maker and former rapporteur for the Washington Post, tweeted quote: if journalism is a public trust, trust that has consistently eroded and Bob Woodward is an associate editor at the Washington Post. Why did Woodward sit on this information while Americans suffered and died now, Bob Woodward was asked about that exact decision in a
brief interview. He did with the Associated Press and Bob Woodward's reaction. Was he needed time to ensure that Donald Trump remarks were accurate? Now that sounds we're to me. It's weird to me that for months Bob,
Edward needed to confirm that corona virus really was deadly. As Donald Trump told him, it was on February. Seventh, that's weird, but what would
a better counter argument. There were few let's examined
David Moran US, whose an investigative journalist and an associate editor at the Washington Post tweeted quote. I agree completely and impact
old by some of the short sighted thinking on this by people with whom I often agree the army
that lives might have been saved had Bob reported. This earlier is a historical data.
Jobs are unavailable public service. Another argument: this is Eric, wimple, a Washington Post, media critic, who said quote if Trump thought would word I'm sorry now this is not part of the boat. Eric wimple makes
argument. That quote seeing a lot of arguments that Bob Woodward did something and ethical or untoward in holding onto his scoop about trumps admission that he played
down the corona virus. I disagree with the criticism. Woodward is a book author and the implicit understanding with resources is that here,
interview them interview them again and again and again until he can stitch together? Something authoritative in book form
So where do I come down on this? I believe that the strongest counter argument is that it is very plausible that done
tromp, never would have been interviewed by Bob Woodward. In other words, he never would have accepted sitting down with Bob Woodward. If he
had known that Bob Woodward was going to publish some of this stuff right away. I think that that's of both a realistic thing, if Bob would
It says I want to interview you, but I might just published this stuff next week, Trump probably refuses the interview the pretext of accepting
interview likely included
the belief that this would not be published until it came out in a book. Months later now, Bob Woodward could have me
the decision, even though my intent was not to publish this stuff right away. This is of such public health importance. This is of such national importance that I have to go public with this that something that Bob Woodward could have done the question and then becomes. Would it actually has saved lives? I dont know that it would have now. Let me walk you through my thinking. It seems obvious, if Donald Trump,
had publicly taken the virus seriously starting in February. Rather than denying its seriousness a lot of his followers would have taken it more seriously and thus fewer people would have died. That, I think, is true. The problem is what we're talking about is not trump publicly taking it more seriously. What we're talking
about is in March, for example, Bob Woodward blowing the whistle and saying hey trumps lying. I have em on tape. I caught him red handed. I dont believe that would have made it
since the trumps followers. And why don't? I believe that, because it hasn't made a difference so far, Trump has gotten caught red handed doing.
Everything you can imagine, and his supporters by and large have not punished him. Nothing happens now, we'll see injured,
over seven weeks, whether in total trump is held accountable for this disastrous for years.
But I have a hard time imagining that, even if Bob Woodward did go public in March with this saying whoa whoa whoa hold on a second stop. The clock I have audio trump knows this is serious, Trump would come out and
then salt, everybody, Cayley, Maggot, Annie, would have come out and done a press briefing and come up with some rationale for why this is not a big deal and then people
have moved on to the next scandal, sort of how we are now moving on to this one from dead soldiers or suckers and losers from just a few days ago. So, if I were Bob Woodward me personally, I would
have come forward it, because I would want to clear my own conscience. That's me: do I think it would have made a substantive difference. I have a hard time thinking it would have
because it would be just like when any journalists comes out with anything about Donald Trump. His followers either don't believe it or ignore it or write it off or whatever so
oh. If it were me, I would have come from public because of my own conscience. I dont know that it really would have made a difference. We're going to explore this in more detail on the David Pachmann show Instagram. I hope you are following us there at David Pachmann show we're going to take it.
Break. And next I am going to dive into some new policy proposals from Joe Biden. We will look at
very strange in her interview that Donald Trump gave to shine Hannity last night and so much more David Pachmann show.
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welcome back to the David Pachmann show it's important,
been on Joe Biden policy proposals, because on the one hand you have Donald Trump holding huge rallies as if there's no pandemic, while insulting Joe Biden saying Joe Biden is stupid, as he did earlier this week
and then, on the other hand, as a contract contrast, you have Joe Biden actually proposing some pretty interesting policies and one such policy. The Joe Biden recently released
is a ten percent tax penalty on company.
That move operations overseas and then on the
her side of that a ten percent tax credit for companies that create jobs in the United States. I, like the idea of Joe Biden,
rolling out more economic policies, because if you're, some
whose voting on the big picture right you, you realize Donald Trump
the completely incompetent systemic threat to the United States in the world and he's made the
Country, a global laughing stock. You may already be clear on I'm voting Biden in November. There are people
who, for one reason or another, need some more specific economic justifications to vote for Joe Biden and one of those is that Joe Biden says he will reverse some of the worst PA
seas of the Trump administration which he believes are loopholes that allow offshoring to take place. Despite Donald Trump Card
in his entire campaign and during his presidency that he
would be, and has been great for the american worker and for american business. It's impossible,
we ignore the reality that Joe Biden
some of these issues is saying he will achieve the eggs
same thing, Donald Trump promised to achieve when he was campaigning, which is Joe Biden much like Donald Trump said in twenty fifteen
He will revive American Manufacturing Joe Biden. Much like die
from campaigned on and twenty sixteen says he will create more american jobs and bring some supply chains back to the United States.
Of course, you will notice that the real
Joe Biden is saying he will do those same things is Donald Trump promised to do them, but failed to do so and Joe Biden
you proposal will target offshore profits now and then this is going to bigger picture, get added into his plan to require corporations to pay at least a fifth
in percent minimum tax on domestic profits, as many of you know, even though we have a corporate tax rate hearing the united
states with no required men.
I'm tax on corporations. The way individuals have there's something called the alternative minimum tax for individuals, meaning you can't use deductions and loopholes to get down to not owing anything that in theory, that's the point of the alternative minimum,
MAX Joe Biden, is proposing something similar for corporations on the other side of this
Is you ve got on one side, a ten percent tax for offshoring and then you
have a ten percent Maiden America tax credit which you would qualify for if you as a
business owner, revitalize a closed or almost closed facility in the United States. If you expand a facility, if you bring some production back to
United States and there will also be a ten percent credit available. If you increase manufacturing wages you it has to be based on pre corona virus has a baseline,
up to a hundred thousand dollars, this is super interesting. Let me give you an example of how it works. You could,
favourably have an employee earning fifty thousand dollars and you could say
I'm going to give them a raised to sixty thousand dollars on that ten,
thousand dollar raise binds proposal. Is the government will kick you back ten percent of it? So you give a ten thousand dollars
the government, gives you a thousand dollar tax credit, so you give someone.
Thousand dollars, it only costs, you nine, that's very, very interesting and
the macro? Economic impact needs to be scored a, but conceptually, it's very interesting. Now
I wonder how many of you are waiting to see whether I will do this. I would be a hypocrite if I didn't point this out when Joe Biden
as it because I sure, as Hell pointed it out when Donald Trump set it all of the talk about bringing man
factoring jobs back to the United States? A lot of these jobs are not coming back period. It doesn't matter if Donald Trump is president, it doesn't matter if Joe Biden as President and you know a ten percent credit here- a ten percent tax they're not gonna, do it, and that is because the United States
made the decision implicitly decades ago that we are going in the direction of being more of a service based economy, more of a crime
it of economy and outsourcing manufacturing to places where it's cheaper, like China, that's the reality
and that's a global reality. That's bigger than ten percent tax here, ten percent credit there. Now that being said, if this instead,
They god american companies to, for example, move a call center back to the United States. That is much more plausible and I would find super interesting for for me one of the big
Customer service nightmares is when you're trying to deal with something sensitive, for example, banking, payroll airline tickets, internet security and customer service centres are located in other parts of the country, which is fine,
I other then, when you are dealing with people that do not speak English had a certain level of proficiency,
that really affects customer service and when you look at internet service providers that offshore call centres when you
look at airlines in all of these others consistently. It destroys the customer. Experience
we ve had recent internet problems. Our internet service providers, tech support is in another,
of the world run by me
Joker, english speakers. There not bad people there, no worse than Americans, but it is not a great customer service experience at one point: the payroll company we used to have had customer service overseas. It's not a great experience to be trying to set up
you, know the proper tax deductions for employees and to have someone where you don't even know if their english level is at a level of proficiency, were they're getting what you're trying to do. If this idea gets call centres back in the United States. That would be soon
interesting, and it would be really good for a lot of companies in any case, we're going to.
Continue tracking Joe Biden proposals. This isn't
trusting one. Meanwhile Donald Trump is doing rallies and calling Joe Biden stupid. You decide which approach you prefer. I know which one I prefer
sometimes when Donald Trump does something we call it humiliating, but it's only humiliating. If you have a certain sensibility,
humiliating. If you have a certain worldview Donald Trump last night,
gave an interview to Fox NEWS is shown Hannity that was so cringe worthy, so disgusting that the humiliation has spread
much farther than you can imagine Sean Hannity
really brought up the story of Donald Trump, allegedly calling dead soldiers who died in combat suckers and losers
Donald Trump focused on the idea that it's not true that
Didn'T- want to be out in the rain in France and that that's part of why Donald Trump didn't go that Donald Trump
says: I've been out in the rain many times and my hair gets wet and it's no big deal. This is the level of discussion that is happening with the president of the union
states on one of the top rated cable news shows. We have a raging pandemic with nearly two hundred thousand deaths. We have all sorts of economic problems. We are on the press
this of a major election and Donald Trump is unable new thing. It's ok! If my hair gets when I made a speech in the rain, no umbrellas, nobody, but you know they said to just
information. I didn't want to get my air what I've had my ear. What plenty of time I made plenteous speeches of the rain, and if I wasn't it,
Why didn't you wouldn't be President right now that I can tell you so it's this information they may
up a story about two disgusting words that they say I said, and I didn't have many: what does we have twenty one witnesses? They only have sources. Of course, Trump doesn't
seem to realise that a witness to something saying you
Didn't say it is a weird thing: if someone comes forward and says I didn't hears Trump say it, that's not proof. It wasn't said all it means. Is you didn't hear it and it's it's very difficult, of course, to prove a negative, that's by very by its very nature
hard to do. Donald Trump doesn't seem to get that and he insists listen. Zack said some guy named Zack Zack said I didn't say it well. That means you didn't hear you say it earlier. This week I reported to you that Donald Trump campaign is tied on cash. They have had to slow down, add spending in some key.
Dates the fund raising is a problem and Sean Hannity. This is a mean that this is how
turn manure into gold, or at least attempt to
Sean Hannity, hilariously, asked Donald Trump is not buying, adds strata
dream. Like is not having money, may be a strategy even check this out say that is not the case.
A little shy of three hundred million dollars, but I was told by a friend and Florida that that job,
Biden has three two one adds running against yours. Is this strategy awaiting, or is this something that you didn't want? Maybe it does ramping up after Labour day, so for you,
The I wanted in the last month
and we have about three times more cash now that we have been- and that's without me, putting up any of I needed actual put it up myself. I just by said that two days ago, is that if there's any necessary extra cash
but we have a lot of money coming in and small donors. I haven't been heavy on big donors because I dont want to call him. You know when you call big donors, you used to put yourself at a very compromising position.
Tromp knows how comp
rising, it is to get money from donors because he spent the last four years doing favours to his donors.
And it's very interesting to hear Donald Trump say we want
in the last month, in twenty sixteen, this is not a guarantee of anything. Of course, Joe Biden led to day to day is seven point five nationally Hilary lead on this day in twenty. Sixteen was two point seven. So today Joe Biden Lead is nearly three times as large as Hilary was at this time. In twenty. Sixteen, it doesn't mean Trump is going to lose
but Trump saying this year is just like twenty. Sixteen is assuming a lot in twenty. Sixteen Donald Trump was not already the president in twenty. Sixteen Donald Trump was much closer to his opponent than where he is today that that those are just factual differences, then Donald Trump goes on to say that right now,
the United States has a record number of jobs. What that means is a question you don't know what they're doing cried way,
but they should all be opened, and our countries doing very well. We have record numbers of job. You saw the numbers just came out for the four months, its largest number ever,
by far, not even close, so we do not have a record number of jobs right now. Donald Trump has no idea. What he's talking about remember that that the big picture numbers are, we lost close to fifty million
jobs during the pandemic. Many of
we have come back, ok, but we are still way down.
The idea that we have more jobs than ever is something that you have a tough time convincing a twelve year old of even us.
March nine year, old, probably wouldn't fall for it, but Donald Trump throws out this generality. We
the record number of jobs, it's very much untrue, you're, not gonna, hear any fact checking of it from Sean Hannity and then
Also continuing to spread would at this point is just embarrassing disinformation, Donald Trump claiming that
you look at our corona virus numbers that there actually amazing.
Just incredible. How well we ve done to me
in two and a half million, maybe even more than that. If we did it in a different way and we ve done a real
good job, but if you look at our numbers are fatality numbers compared to other countries where
Weren t really. I mean it's amazing. What we ve done, we ve been able to do something that a country
especially with the kind of size we're dealing with. We ve done
double job. The true
There, of course, is our now
Birds are really really bad. Now, if you don't have a just for our population, the? U S has by far the most corona virus deaths.
But we also have a lot of people. We really need to be looking at per capita numbers on a per capita basis. The United States is eleventh highest in the world
of more than two hundred countries and territories in terms of deaths per capita. Now, if you take out some of these talks-
the countries and territories which concern them.
But like San Marino and Andorra, the United States has the ninth highest deaths per cap,
from corona virus envy world. It's not the lowest, it's not in the bottom half it is the ninth highest in the world question to you. When Trump says this stuff, when Trump says we have more jobs than ever,
from says we have the best corona virus numbers in the world. Do people believe it are the people who here trump say it and think trumps right? We ve done such a great job, we're so much better off than every other country. Or is it just something here
has to say even if no one is going to believe it. I actually dont know the answer. I know there are people who do
we're doing well on the virus, but I dont know that they think it because Donald Trump is the one saying. Let me know your thoughts and bigger picture. Does an interview like this do trump any favours?
this a net gain for Trump in some way to be interviewed by Sean Hannity, even if he makes no sense in ways that I can't
exactly understand. Does this do damage,
or does it really not make a difference whatsoever? If you look at the that the sort of a framework of Alan licked men who predicts elections using a qualitative rather than quantitative system, he would
Are you? I think that this doesn't matter that really what impact the election are big issues. What is the status of the economy?
is there a major calamity, etc. There are others who may have a different perspective.
No in general,
Interviews like this have any impact on the election result. We would expect the David Pachmann Shell,
David Pachmann died, gun
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When a couple of months ago we got these really wild poles, nationally polls that had Donald Trump down to Joe Biden by ten points nationally by twelve points. Nationally, there were even a few that said, Donald Trump was down by fifteen points nationally. I said at the time
Whether or not those poles were accurate at the time and remember accurate means within the margin of error. So if it says fifteen, it could really be eight depending on the margin of error I repeated at the time,
It is very unlikely that on election day, we're going to see it
in point margin in the popular vote. It is extraordinarily unlikely. I dont think any of us should be imagining that that's the case we should imagine it's going to be.
Much tighter and it means we all have to vote at the same time if these policies,
coming out, we can't really ignore them, and indeed there are now multiple new polls that have Joe Biden up by twelve there,
as a new Reuters Ipsos Poem, which says that Joe Biden leads Donald Trump by twelve point nationally. That's among
likely voters fifty two to forty. There is also a new USC poll which says Joe Biden is up by twelve and importantly in that one Joe Biden is pulling at fifty three
said so in both the Reuters Ipsos Paul in the U S C Paul not only is Donald
I'm losing by double digits, but Joe Biden is over fifty percent support, which is an important matter,
to keep an eye on now in these pulls somewhere between three and five,
percent of likely voter say there just undecided right now. Now I've talked about this before who are those people? How could you possibly be undecided at this point unless you literally not paid it there,
in politics- and in that case, how likely argued actually vote. That's a question if we say the electorate is expect
to be about a hundred and thirty million people. If five percent are undecided, that is six and a half million voters right
six and a half million voters who are looking at the situation in saying I might low Biden or I might vote Trump. I can t
to be stunned and appalled. By that reality, I would love to talk to some of those undecided voters. I invite you to Call- and I have not heard from any of them so far. Now it's
really important to remember that a popular vote margin correlates different
key to the likelihood of an electoral victory for Democrats verses. Republicans, there is a structural,
balance against Democrats where, as you know, sometimes
a crash when the popular vote and dont become present.
Because they lose the electoral college, as I'm sure you remember, unless your four years old and which
I don't even know that we have four year olds in our audience in twenty. Sixteen Donald Trump lost the popular vote by two
point one, but he won the electoral college thanks to seventy something thousand votes in three states: Nate Silver from five. Thirty eight did something important. He crunch the numbers to tell us give in a particular popular vote.
Margin. How likely is it that Joe Biden will win the electoral college? And again I understand that the numbers,
skewed in this way, because of the urban
Earl divide and because of some other sort of base level factors that
favour, Republicans in the electoral college, even at
the even while being at a disadvantage in the popular vote. So if Joe
and wins the popular vote by
under one point, his odds of becoming president of
Adding two hundred and seventy electoral votes are only six percent,
Joe Biden can win the popular vote by one to two points. He has a twenty two percent chance of winning the electoral college
if Joe Biden matches Hillary Clinton Popular Vote win somewhere in the two to three point range aid is still slightly.
More likely that Trump wins the electoral college. In other words, if Biden gets a similar margin of victory in the popular vote to Hilary, he only has a forty six percent chance of winning
the electoral college that
that's why we all have to vote only
when Joe Biden Popular vote led gets beyond three points. Does Joe by
become the likely candidate to become president if he wins between three and four points in the popular vote he has a seventy four percent chance of being president and, as you can see, if Joe Biden were to get a six point, popular vote when the odds of becoming president
go above ninety nine percent. If in some other universe, Joe Biden,
actually were to win. The popular vote by ten
It would be all but certain that he becomes the next president of the United States so that that's how I would be thinking about the popular vote.
Versus the electoral vote scenario. Now, let's look at Joe Biden Average led right now, because the twelve pointless,
It is not representative of the average. If you look at Joe Biden Average in all national poles, he's up by six point: nine. Ok,
if Joe Biden Word a win by six point, nine, as I just showed you he will almost
certainly when the electoral college right well, yes, and no,
if he really wins by six point- nine, yes, but remember,
that there is a margin of error here now when you
verging pull results. You can't just say: ok binds up by six point nine. If the average Paul has a three percent margin of error.
For each candidate that means may be Jos only up by zero point. Nine. There are some complex mathematics involved in full
peering out an overall margin of error when you're already
averaging pull results which in themselves have margins of air it doesnt matter. The point is
Hillary Clinton ended up with a popular vote when that was two thirds the size of what the polling predicted. So let me put it a different way. Hillary Clinton was expected to win by three in the past
Does she won by two? That means her. Real margin was two thirds of the expected margin. If we apply that to Joe Biden, if we say
Biden, is winning by six point nine, but we're only expecting him to win by two thirds of that. That would be about a four point: popular vote margin of victory. If that work,
case it still doesn't guarantee victory for Joe Biden, but it certainly starts to look pretty good. What does this mean
this means. We all have to vote. That's really all that this means and
even though the popular vote numbers may be looking pretty good, we do have to talk about
what's going on in Minnesota, which is not looking quite so get so on this programme, I try to strike the right balance between
in complacent and being alarmist. I try to
void being either. I try to just be realistic and kind of give it to you straight simply,
telling you that there is concern among Democrats about Minnesota. I think is accurate. I dont think its alarmist and I don't think it's complacent Donald Trump. According to some democratic strategists, could win this
aid of Minnesota and you might be worried. You may be wondering men.
Soda are we? Should we really be worried about that? Why? Well, the truth is that Minnesota hasn't voted for. A reply
looking presidential candidate since nineteen. Seventy two, that's just shy of fifty years ago, and if you look at the polling,
sort of looks ok right, I mean it looks ok for Joe Biden. Joe Biden
currently leading the polling in Minnesota by an average of three point? Seven? But the problem is that three point: seven really isn't that much to be comfortable with me.
Soda was actually already almost a problem for Hillary Clinton and twenty. Sixteen Hillary Clinton did win Minnesota in twenty sixteen, but only
about one point: five, and if you look further into history,
Barack Obama. One Minnesota by eleven
in two thousand eight. He wanted by eight in twenty twelve John
carry one Minnesota by four in two thousand for Al Gore, one it only by two in the
two thousand- and so when you see it this close, and you know that there's voter suppression- that's not the point.
Is meddling. That's not in the polling, there's all sorts of things that are not reflected by the polling. I am not particularly comfortable
Joe Biden being up by only three point: seven in the state of Minnesota. Now there is another reason that Minnesota could be a problem and Minnesota could turn into d with scorn: sin of twenty twenty remember in twenty. Sixteen Hillary Clinton was widely criticised for not.
Spending time in Wisconsin Estate that she ultimately lost by a very small margin, and it was one of those three states that flipped the results to Donald Trump L.
Coralie Joe Biden may have a similar situation right now and what I mean by that is in Florida, Joe Biden is struggling with latino voters right now in Florida.
Seems as though Joe Biden is going to have to devote even more resources to Florida. Florida always a focal point, particularly for Democrats, because taking flaw,
away from the republican candidate is so powerful in these electoral races to two hundred and seventy. But again, if Joe Biden has to put more time and effort
to Florida than he would otherwise have
do ordinarily have two: were it not for the hispanic boat
he may not have the resources or time in Minnesota and Minnesota is exactly the type of state that the polling could get wrong. Remember the twenty sixteen polling was mostly correct at the now
national level at the national level, the polling said Hilary up. Three
She won by more than two in the popular vote, but it is also true that the polling was not correct in Wisconsin in Wisconsin, Hillary Clinton in the polling was winning by six and a half, and you might recall, as I just mentioned five minutes ago, Donald Trump, one
Wisconsin. By about three quarters of a point, the Wisconsin polling was very very wrong. So what do we do about Minnesota about all of these situations? What we learn from the past? We learn from past experiences. We understand that Democrats are worth
he'd about Minnesota, and so we should be worried about Minnesota and we should focus on it when from advisers. What living backup, when trunk publicly says all are poles, look great were winning everything its bs. We all know it's bs when,
privately from advisers and republican strategist, say we're
writing off Michigan. We understand that Michigan could get complicated when privately, they start looking again at a state like Minnesota. We
your stand, that we cannot ignore it, we never stop the focus on getting out the vote and
one of these states could be the difference maker. Now, in the coming weeks, I'm going to show you some of my plausible Alex
moral maps. Now why the hell? Would you listen to me about that? Use you really shouldn't. I got it way wrong in not in twenty sixteen and twenty sixteen. I believed the Wisconsin
willing and so on my map. I had Wisconsin definitely for Hilary. I was wrong, but
I am going to give you some scenarios and incredibly therein
scenario for for this upcoming election. That would put the electoral votes at two hundred and sixty nine two thousand two hundred and sixty nine. It's not the most likely
area, but it's also not that unlikely,
pens on main being split as they do in terms of
electoral vote, so we will get to that. We have plenty of time for that. We have a voice
smell number, which is too one nine to David P. I invite you. Yes, you to call any time if you
call it four in the morning, as many people do,
go ahead and call it four in the morning or call at a more normal time. Here is a voice mail asking,
really a pretty important question about what will Republicans do about Trump if Trump loses in November? I did it. I wouldn't talk enough about how the trouble is he's gonna, be twisting from the sidelines constantly and experienced report simply think he's base will still hold them up ass, a God. If you think I'm members Congress will die influenced by him or to disconnect Sturgis haven't eastward. Nor have answers about. Thank you.
I think it is ultimately going to depend. That's a good question if Trump loses, but it just keeps tweeting tweeting tweeting any as a presence and he's on Fox news. What will actual elected republicans do? Will they still sort of give deference
the Trump and listened to Trump, or will they denounce him? I think
will likely be. Neither I think the most likely scenario is if Donald Trump loses and ultimately he will go, he will resist it. He will claim rigged, but ultimately he will go my senses. Yes, Donald Trump will keep tweeting. Yes, Donald
will continue to be interviewed on. Maybe only Fox news, maybe he'll shift away, and maybe he will start his own right wing network of some kind. My instinct is
Republicans will not widely denounced Trump, but those sort of pretend it never
happened. Remember how George W Bush was not a big part at all of John Mccain
thousand eight campaign, because George W Bush is very unpopular and polarizing Donald Trump is ten times more than that, I'm so my expecting
would be, that there would be a lot of sort of pretending. The last four years didn't happen. If Donald Trump Loses- and I do not see, it is likely that Trump will shut up. I think that he will continue to use twitter and platforms because he's narcissistic any desperate.
Her attention. All the time we have a great bonus show for you today. I will tell you and Pat will tell you what we
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More powerfully than ever pay.
Only with a million Youtube subscribers after that vacation, but we are taking next week off. We will
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Some people are making a way bigger deal out of this than it actually is we're going to talk about that, and also very
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dipshit authorities discovered thirteen completely sealed twenty five hundred year old coffins super interesting news. We will talk about the application.
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Transcript generated on 2020-09-10.