« The David Pakman Show

9/10/20: Woodward's Trump Audio Leaks Go Viral

2020-09-10 | 🔗

--On the Show:

--Audio leaks connected to Bob Woodward's new book, Rage, expose that Donald Trump knew coronavirus was serious as early as February despite continuing to downplay it publicly for months

--Bob Woodward's new book, Rage, reveals that Donald Trump's former Secretary of Defense, Jim Mattis, told Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats, that "collective action" may be needed to remove Donald Trump

--Notable discussions from the David Pakman Show subreddit, including about the US Postal Service and much more

--Should Bob Woodward have reported the Donald Trump coronavirus coverup sooner than he did?

--Joe Biden's latest proposal will punish companies for offshoring profits and reward companies for bringing jobs back to the United States

--Donald Trump is interviewed by Fox News' Sean Hannity and it goes even worse than we imagined

--A new poll still has Joe Biden leading Donald Trump by 12 in the national popular vote, and we outline a variety of electoral college scenarios

--New polling out of Minnesota has some Democratic strategists worried that Donald Trump could potentially win the state

--Voicemail caller wonders if Trump will keep tweeting, and whether Republicans will start ignoring him, if he loses the upcoming election

--On the Bonus Show: Vacation plans, Trump's Nobel Peace Prize nomination, a pause to coronavirus vaccine trial, 2500-year-old Egyptian coffins found, much more...

🔊 Want to read 5 books in one sitting? Try Blinkist for FREE at http://www.blinkist.com/pakman

👍 Save 20% on LUCY nicotine gum by using code PAKMAN at https://lucy.co

👍 Use code PAKMAN for 20% off Munk Pack snacks at https://davidpakman.com/snack

⚕️ Get quality, affordable primary care from SteadyMD at https://steadymd.com/pakman

⌚ Save 15% on Vincero watches by using code PAKMAN at https://davidpakman.com/watch

--Become a Supporter: http://www.davidpakman.com/membership

--Follow us on Twitter: http://twitter.com/davidpakmanshow

--Subscribe on YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/thedavidpakmanshow

--Like us on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/davidpakmanshow

--Leave us a message at The David Pakman Show Voicemail Line (219)-2DAVIDP

This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
The David Dragnet Shout David Pack, my guarded seeing the quiet heart out loud has been sort of the theme of the Trump administration and a huge cause of the constant self inflicted damage that Donald Trump has done to himself has come from saying things out loud or tweeted. Things that he would probably be better off keeping to himself, and it has unfortunately happened again in conjunction with the release of his new book, called rage investigative, when Bob Woodward has released audio of a conversations that he had with Donald Trump, during which a lot of things happen, but making
Huge headlines is Donald Trump admitting that he publicly was not telling the truth about corona virus As early as February for political reasons now, there's debate as to whether they are good political reasons or bad political reasons. I would argue it doesn't matter that Donald Trump was deceiving the public and it in a matter of national security. It was Donald Trump wanting it to appear as though he had things You're control, when he did not, let's go first to the club, and then we will discuss it. Donald Trump admitting to Bob Woodward that at the time fabric the seventh his belief about corona virus was that it was very serious, even airborne, although publicly, even for months after this Donald Trump, never egg. Alleged corona virus being as dangerous as he admits in this clip. Now it's starting out just all people, but that yesterday, in dangerous day, some most startling facts came out, if not just old older, examined unable to plenty of young people
open here. What is going to give me a moment of talking to somebody going through this work? she or somebody who kind of it, caused a pivot. In your mind, because its clear just from what's in on the public record that you win RO appeared on this too. Oh, my god, the gravity is almost inexplicable and unexplainable. Well, Think Bob really could be honest with you. I want you, Taiwan. It too I wanted to. Always play it down. I still like playing down yes, because I don't want to create a panic, so there it is its plane is day now. What is the response going to be I'll? Tell you what it is: it's not going to be that the audio tapes have been done. Good because they clearly have not the argument is going to be not wanting people to panic is something good that Donald Trump does in something.
He has done in general during his presidency. Of course, it is not true when it comes to the Immigrant Caravan Donald trumps strategy was created. Much panic as possible. Make people think things are as dangerous as possible, even when they are not. When it comes to Joe Biden, America, the strategy is, we want people to panic because its politically advantageous, so there are people I dont know they're all bad faith actors, but they certainly are making nonsense. Arguments were saying this isn't bad. This is Trump saying hey. I dont want the kind. We panicking. So I am going to do what I need to prevent the country from panicking, because panic would be bad. That's not what this is. Donald Trump has no problem with the country panicking when it is politically advantageous. Now, there's other clips here in this next clip Trump is talking Bob Woodward again and Donald Trump ah continues to I acknowledge that the virus
he's airborne and its far more dangerous than Donald Trump ever admitted, and so what was of president? She saying yesterday but we're talking mostly about the virus, and I think he's gonna happen in good shape. But do you know it's a very tricky situation it be? It goes. It goes through air Bob, that's always tougher than the touch and other touch. You don't have to touch things right, but the air you just read the air that tell it sir, the past and so that the very tricky one that a very delicate one is also more deadly than you're. You know, you're, even your strenuous lose. You know, people don't realize we lose twenty
a thousand thirty thousand people a year. Whatever think that right, I know you do not realising what will we do the same thing for more deadly? This is five per. You know this is five percent versus one percent and less than one percent of soap. This is deadly stuff. Now, at the time when Trump said this to Bob Woodward, publicly tromp was saying it's like a seasonal flu. It's going to disappear. Fifteen Kay, This will soon be zero. It is a straight up lie. The only debate is whether the lie was justified for some reason. I think the answer is clearly no other interesting things asked by Bob Woodward whether racism is he
here in the United States in a way that affect people's lives. Donald Trump replied. I think it is- and I think it's unfortunate, but I believe it is. I think there is systematic or institutional races in this country. When I got there is everywhere, I think, probably last year than most places or last year that many pleasant, ok, but is it here in a way that it has an impact on people's lives I think it is unfortunate, but I think it is so trump meeting there something that again, he has refused to acknowledge publicly and overall, this is a wild book, all sorts of stunning material from Bob Woodward. We're going to talk later about report in this book, that Donald Trump former Secretary of Defence, Jim Matisse, Sir,
to the director of National Intelligence Dan Coats that they may need collective action to remove Donald Trump. We're going to talk later about whether Bob Woodward had a responsibility to make some of these elements public sooner than he did we're going to get to all of that, but the top line, big story that there are even legal scholars. Thing is unimpeachable offence, although puts a question mark for me. What do I know but The top line is Donald, Trump knew how serious corona viral corona virus back in February early February, and he didn't acknowledge it publicly, ostensibly claiming to avoid TK in panic. But we know how that worked out. Tens of me of Americans to this day still don't think this is a serious pandemic because of early denial campaign by Donald Trump and meanwhile and tomorrow, I'm going to get to this there's just so much here. Meanwhile, Donald Trump approval, in all likelihood
is going to remain around forty five percent, because something is very wrong with our country. Donald Trump is admitting. I pretended it was less serious which lead to more death unnecessary and approval is not likely to I very much too Maison. It's amazing in terms of the indictment that it is of our country. Anybody in my view, who has not left Donald Trump already is problem not going to leave him because of this, but I want to get ahead of myself we're going to get into that tomorrow. Now, meanwhile, you have and will discuss this on the bonus show. Today. Donald Trump is arguing that he should be considered for the Nobel Peace Prize and in act of far right. Norwegian politician has nominated him for it, on the other hand, We are wondering whether his handling of corona virus counts as a crime against humanity. That's how disparate the country,
is right now on the issue of Donald Trump. Now, just just one SEC, I want to go back. Again to the explanation. That is the predominant one in response to this audio witches Donald Trump didn't want to cause panic. That's a good reason to downplay the virus that is barely better, even if you believe it. I dont believe it, because Donald Trump has no problem causing panic. As I said when he judges is politically advantageous. Immigrant caravan, anarchists in the streets, Joe Biden, America you'll, have a depression like you, ve, never seen before, from his fine, causing panic when it's good for him, but imagine that it is true that Donald from didn't want to panic Americans We had more death than we needed, because Americans want panicked, in other words, Americans panicking or what I call taking it more seriously would have saved lives, and the next few weeks could see all sorts of tapes coming out. There may be more Bob Woodward tapes, my
we'll Cohen may have tapes. There are all sorts of tapes that could be floating around, but again really. Will it matter tomorrow on the programme, I will argue no, and we will get to that. But first, let's talk about some of the other allegations in Bob Woodward spy one of the most stunning revelations from Bob Woodward's new book rage, is that Donald Frumps, former secretary of Defence, Jim Madness,
went to the director of National Intelligence Dan Coats and said Dan. The time may come where we need collective action on Donald Trump, which, by every reasonable interpretation, that is code for the cabinet, may have to come together and use the twenty fifth amendment to remove Donald Trump Bob Woodward's book, also alleging that Jim Matisse saw Donald Trump, as quote dangerous and quote unfit and in a separate conversation recounted by Bob Woodward, Jim Maddest, reportedly said to the Vienna DNA Dan Coats quote. The president has no moral compass to which stand coats replied. True to him a lie is not a lie: it's just what he thinks. He doesn't know the difference between the truth and a lie. So let's kind of dig in to this at the big
sure level. I'm guessing most of my audience understands its not normal. It's not typical for mould people thought high, ranking individuals like the Secretary of Defence and the director of national intelligence tube talking together about hey. We might at some point need to act to remove the president because he is unfit and he cannot lead. That is not typical. That did not happen during Morocco It didn't happen during George W Bush, although certainly George W Bush, that a lot of things that were absolutely atrocious and end and disgusting, this is not new- now, what do they mean when they say collective action? By every stretch of of my imagination
It can mean one thing and one thing only, which is the potential use of the twenty fifth amendment to remove a president. Now the twenty fifth amendment it's available. This is a public document as as you, as you know, it S. Four articles in the first three referred other circumstances, where president would have to be replaced, for example, if the present is incapacitated for, for some reason or if a present where did die. The fourth article of the twenty fifth amendment is the relevant one here in thinking about what Jim matters was talking about and that that fourth, article of the twenty fifth amendment, says that the vice president and cabinet shows, can vote on the removal of a president if the majority votes for removal, meaning the VP plus the cabinet. A letter goes to the leader these Senate prototype the speaker of the house telling them. We have voted to remove the president, the press It is then able to respond if the president disagrees with his removal or her removal, in this case his removal, the press
You can write a letter to the Senate and the House sing. I am fit to serve and then both houses of Congress would have to vote now, in the mean time, if the vice president's sends a letter saying, I agree that the president is unfit until the House and Senate vote. The vice president becomes acting president of the United States, it sticky edit sloppy and its convoluted, but the point here is Jim Madness that then secretary Defence brought this to the director of national intelligence and said we may need to do this. We may need collective action that alone is one of the biggest scandals of the last many decades. The fact that this was a conversation that took place at the highest levels is completely outrageous and out of this world a scandal
the world made sense. Donald Trump would have already resigned, based on everything that by actually, if the world made sense, Donald Trump never would have been elected. Given that he was if the world made sense, the countless scandals that Donald Trump has been involved in would have led to a resignation long ago. The world does not make sense, and instead we are faced The very real prospect not have Donald Trump removal, but have Donald Trump being awarded another four years and fascinating lit, and that there are trumpets who heard this news that Jim Madame was thinking we may actually have to remove the sky, and some of those trumpets reacted by saying I told you, the military was planning a coup against Donald Trump. Now, of course, not is gone I was talking about this in his role as a member of the cabinet happening to be secretary of defence. This was not a military action that was being considered to cabinet action, but the fact that they will excuse,
anything. They will find a way to say Donald, from the victim here doll? billion air guy, but born with a spoon in his mouth has become in the eyes of many of his followers and in his own eyes, the biggest victim, the most poor they treated man on earth you would have, he would have you believe it is truly amazing. I don't want to get ahead of myself, but I'm putting together my thoughts. I don't think this is going to have any impact on Donald Trump and will deal with that tomorrow. In the meantime, what is your react to these audio leaks. Do you think they will have any bearing whatsoever on the upcoming elections? Let me know on Twitter, where you can find me at De Pachmann De P, O K
The David Bagman show at David Pachmann Dotcom. If you love feeding your intellectual curiosity but you're always struggling to find the time check out one of my all time, favorite apps called Blink IST blinking lets. You consume an entire book on your way home from work. They take thousands of popular nonfiction books, condensed each one into texter audio that you can get through in just fifteen minutes, and you get all of the important core ideas and information from that book. It's perfect! If you don't have enough time to do all the reading you want to do or if you just want to sample a book before you by the entire thing. I recently read a brief history of time, of course, by the great Stephen hawking. This is a book that I have been aware of for so long and other things got in the way
and it was fantastic to check it out on blinkers. Blinking has books on politics, philosophy, science, they have twenty seven different nonfiction categories and a subscription is only about eight bucks a month and you get access to the entire library, but you can try it totally free and get twenty five percent office subscription. When you go to blinkers dot, com, slash, Pachmann, that's, B, L, I and K: I s, t dot com, slack, Pachmann one of our sponsors today is Lucy and they are giving my audience. Twenty percent off Lucy is accompany founded by Caltech scientists, with only one mission, which is to help people quit smoking and raping by offering a clean, affordable nicotine an alternative. Now many of you know you ve heard the stories I've known several people. In my life, who have struggled with quitting smoking, I've seen how did
that can be, and nicotine alternatives can be hugely helpful. Lucy offers and nicotine gum in three flavors winter, green cinnamon and pomegranate, there so have lozenges which come and cherry ice flavour Lucy is affordable, it'll ship right to your door. You don't have to go out to the store. Shipping is always free. You can buy single boxes or save with a subscription. It's the year, twenty twenty, it's time to throw the cigarettes away and get rid of the vapour Lucy can make it easier. You'll find a ton of excellent reviews online from countless people who have used Lucy to quit smoking and raping go check them out at Lucy. Dot, see, oh that's, L use.
He why dot c o the url is in the podcast notes, and you will get twenty percent off when you use the coupon code. Pachmann, quick, disclaimer, I'm required to give these products contain. Nicotine, nicotine is an addictive chemical David Pachmann shelled David Pachmann. Dad can't remember, that this is a programme that really wouldn't exist? Without your support and the primary source of that support comes through website memberships? You can read all about it and sign up in under a minute at join pachmann dot com. We do have a really great discussion forum with more then I think we were close to twenty two or twenty three thousand of our viewers are subscribed to our sub. Read it. You can find David Pachmann dot com, Slash read it
There are a number of interesting posts from our viewers a couple of which I want to highlight one user who goes by the name stressed Matt said: would the cutting of the postal Service hurt Republicans We know the Democrats are more likely to vote absentee, while republicans are more likely to vote in person, but Republicans are more likely to live in rural areas. Rural areas are the ones are the areas that actually need a functioning postal service, the most so, given the delays, would it be more likely for a rural voter turnout? Have their ballot delivered on time compared to someone in a city? Well, you have to compare that which I'm sure you're right about you have to compare that to the disproportionate number of binding the porters planning to vote by mail and that already accounts for the urban rural divide. So it's it's ultimately Our problem, my instinct, my instinct, is that still
accounting for the urban rural divide. It is still Joe Biden whose, worse off, if the postal service fails to deliver absentee ballot. That's my instinct, but ultimately it is an empirical quite Jim would some unknowns and we'd have to think about whether we can actually gather all the data. We need to answer that another post from the sub read it by user Kay EM aloe. Seventeen who says, can we all just take a more went to recognise the fact that David is now less than ten thousand subscribers shy of one million, it is not even ten thousand. In fact, let me take a look. Well were Bobo talking here. We are now only seven thousand subscribers shy of one million on Youtube. It's actually looking. We're going to hit the million during our vacation week, which you know five years ago, you said
you're, going to hit a million subscribers in twenty twenty, but you'll be on vacation. I would have said there is no where you could know that, and it does look like that's the way it's going to be, but we ve got some great videos and above of great congratulatory messages from some of our friends many of whom you will recognise plan for when we do have one million subscriber. So, yes, we are only seven thousand subscribers away help us once we get to Lillian. I think things were going to get very, very crazy. In an hour different ways: Youtube Dotcom, slash the David Pachmann Show and, of course joined the discussion on the David Pachmann Show Sub, read it at David Pachmann, calm, Slash are edi deity. Ok, let's dig into this Bob Woodward holding the tapes for too long discussion that happening earlier in the show. I told you about the audio taped revelations that were released yesterday by journalists Bob Woodward. This is sort of part of his new book release rage where he cites a lot of these recorded conversations in the book. He also has
released many of those audio tapes and they are shocking. Donald Trump new Info worry that the corona virus was far more dangerous than he's ever really admitted, but he was certainly downplaying. During February publicly saying we ve got five cases. We ve got fifteen. It will see the zero while privately as he said, to Bob Woodward on February Seventh and around that time. This is very serious. Trumpet the time thought it was airborne. Trump thought it was hitting more than just people who were older or sicker. It is outrageous. People died as a result of how Donald Trump handle This publicly many people. There is no question about it. Up. Bob Woodward's investigative reporting continues to break Nous. He's had an incredible career, no question about that, but the question that is being asked is: if Bob Woodward had gone public with that information months ago, instead of now to sell a book, could lives have been saved, in other words, knowing
in March that Donald Trump was still publicly downplaying the virus and knowing that in February privately, he had acknowledged how dangerous it was should Bob Woodward of said, I've got a release, these audio tapes now because it could save lives, and indeed there is it honey blow back against Bob Woodward, now arguing exactly that that he should have blown the whistle- and you should have said, listen from is saying something publicly. I M on tape sing something very different, privately some examples: John Stanton, the former Washington Bureau Chiefs, Buzzfeed tweeted, COS There is no ethical and moral defensive, Woodward's decision to not publish these tapes as soon as they were made. If there was any chance it could save a single life. He was obligated to do so. Bob Woodward put making money over his moral and professional duty Jessica, Human, a reporter for pro public. I tweeted, similarly quote
How differently might trump supporters of acted if this whole time they knew that he knew cove? It was a serious threat. Woodwork could have made that happen in February, Jose Antonia Vargas, No maker and former rapporteur for the Washington Post, tweeted quote: if journalism is a public trust, trust that has consistently eroded and Bob Woodward is an associate editor at the Washington Post. Why did Woodward sit on this information while Americans suffered and died now, Bob Woodward was asked about that exact decision in a brief interview. He did with the Associated Press and Bob Woodward's reaction. Was he needed time to ensure that Donald Trump remarks were accurate? Now that sounds we're to me. It's weird to me that for months Bob, Edward needed to confirm that corona virus really was deadly. As Donald Trump told him, it was on February. Seventh, that's weird, but what would
a better counter argument. There were few let's examined David Moran US, whose an investigative journalist and an associate editor at the Washington Post tweeted quote. I agree completely and impact old by some of the short sighted thinking on this by people with whom I often agree the army that lives might have been saved had Bob reported. This earlier is a historical data. Jobs are unavailable public service. Another argument: this is Eric, wimple, a Washington Post, media critic, who said quote if Trump thought would word I'm sorry now this is not part of the boat. Eric wimple makes argument. That quote seeing a lot of arguments that Bob Woodward did something and ethical or untoward in holding onto his scoop about trumps admission that he played down the corona virus. I disagree with the criticism. Woodward is a book author and the implicit understanding with resources is that here,
interview them interview them again and again and again until he can stitch together? Something authoritative in book form So where do I come down on this? I believe that the strongest counter argument is that it is very plausible that done tromp, never would have been interviewed by Bob Woodward. In other words, he never would have accepted sitting down with Bob Woodward. If he had known that Bob Woodward was going to publish some of this stuff right away. I think that that's of both a realistic thing, if Bob would It says I want to interview you, but I might just published this stuff next week, Trump probably refuses the interview the pretext of accepting interview likely included the belief that this would not be published until it came out in a book. Months later now, Bob Woodward could have me
the decision, even though my intent was not to publish this stuff right away. This is of such public health importance. This is of such national importance that I have to go public with this that something that Bob Woodward could have done the question and then becomes. Would it actually has saved lives? I dont know that it would have now. Let me walk you through my thinking. It seems obvious, if Donald Trump, had publicly taken the virus seriously starting in February. Rather than denying its seriousness a lot of his followers would have taken it more seriously and thus fewer people would have died. That, I think, is true. The problem is what we're talking about is not trump publicly taking it more seriously. What we're talking about is in March, for example, Bob Woodward blowing the whistle and saying hey trumps lying. I have em on tape. I caught him red handed. I dont believe that would have made it
since the trumps followers. And why don't? I believe that, because it hasn't made a difference so far, Trump has gotten caught red handed doing. Everything you can imagine, and his supporters by and large have not punished him. Nothing happens now, we'll see injured, over seven weeks, whether in total trump is held accountable for this disastrous for years. But I have a hard time imagining that, even if Bob Woodward did go public in March with this saying whoa whoa whoa hold on a second stop. The clock I have audio trump knows this is serious, Trump would come out and then salt, everybody, Cayley, Maggot, Annie, would have come out and done a press briefing and come up with some rationale for why this is not a big deal and then people have moved on to the next scandal, sort of how we are now moving on to this one from dead soldiers or suckers and losers from just a few days ago. So, if I were Bob Woodward me personally, I would
have come forward it, because I would want to clear my own conscience. That's me: do I think it would have made a substantive difference. I have a hard time thinking it would have because it would be just like when any journalists comes out with anything about Donald Trump. His followers either don't believe it or ignore it or write it off or whatever so oh. If it were me, I would have come from public because of my own conscience. I dont know that it really would have made a difference. We're going to explore this in more detail on the David Pachmann show Instagram. I hope you are following us there at David Pachmann show we're going to take it. Break. And next I am going to dive into some new policy proposals from Joe Biden. We will look at very strange in her interview that Donald Trump gave to shine Hannity last night and so much more David Pachmann show.
David Pachmann Dotcom deterrent, one of our sponsors today is Monk Pack, Kido, granola bars and they giving you twenty percent off when you go to David Pachmann, DOT, com, slash snack and use the coupon code, Pachmann you know a lot of these low carb snack bars have a reputation for not tasting great, but I can tell from trying these myself that that is not the case. With the monk pack, Kido Granola bars they taste just as good, if not better than the sugar old chewy granola bars that many of us love about these contain only one gram of sugar to net carbs only a hunter. Forty calories there completely plant based and gluten free great for anybody for knowing a low carb diet, but also perfect for anybody.
Me who just trying to reduce sugar intake, which I think is a good thing. I've been working on a box of these at home. There delicious soft, chewy texture bunch of great flavors, including peanut butter, cocoanut cocoa chip, which is my personal favorite it's great for a quick breakfast, a snack in the afternoon. I have been loving. These you can get to their webs by going to David, Pachmann, Dotcom, slash, snack. The link is in the pod CAS notes and you'll get twenty percent off when you use coupon code pachmann, that's Pierre Kay, em! A in one of our sponsors today is VIN, chair a Watches, and there are giving you fifteen percent off everything in the store. When you go to David Pachmann, dot com, slash watch if you're a guy looking further perfect way to refresh your style. One of the best investments you can make is in a high quality. Wristwatch Ventura is an american company
this, made it possible for everyday people to afford a premium watch. Almost everything they sell is within the range of about two hundred dollars, but it'll look like you, spend a lot more, all of their watches or made in small batches from top quality materials, and they just look great. I went on their site and picked out a watch from their icon automatic collection, the one I got his in Mesh Matt Black and I love it's simple, sleek elegant goes great with just about anything. I'm wearing and I've got a ton of compliments on it. You'll get fifteen percent off everything in their store. When you go to David Pachmann, DOT, com, slash watch. You can find the url in the description for this podcast episode. Again, that's David Pachmann dot com, Slash watch welcome back to the David Pachmann show it's important,
been on Joe Biden policy proposals, because on the one hand you have Donald Trump holding huge rallies as if there's no pandemic, while insulting Joe Biden saying Joe Biden is stupid, as he did earlier this week and then, on the other hand, as a contract contrast, you have Joe Biden actually proposing some pretty interesting policies and one such policy. The Joe Biden recently released is a ten percent tax penalty on company. That move operations overseas and then on the her side of that a ten percent tax credit for companies that create jobs in the United States. I, like the idea of Joe Biden, rolling out more economic policies, because if you're, some whose voting on the big picture right you, you realize Donald Trump the completely incompetent systemic threat to the United States in the world and he's made the Country, a global laughing stock. You may already be clear on I'm voting Biden in November. There are people
who, for one reason or another, need some more specific economic justifications to vote for Joe Biden and one of those is that Joe Biden says he will reverse some of the worst PA seas of the Trump administration which he believes are loopholes that allow offshoring to take place. Despite Donald Trump Card in his entire campaign and during his presidency that he would be, and has been great for the american worker and for american business. It's impossible, we ignore the reality that Joe Biden some of these issues is saying he will achieve the eggs same thing, Donald Trump promised to achieve when he was campaigning, which is Joe Biden much like Donald Trump said in twenty fifteen He will revive American Manufacturing Joe Biden. Much like die from campaigned on and twenty sixteen says he will create more american jobs and bring some supply chains back to the United States. Of course, you will notice that the real
Joe Biden is saying he will do those same things is Donald Trump promised to do them, but failed to do so and Joe Biden you proposal will target offshore profits now and then this is going to bigger picture, get added into his plan to require corporations to pay at least a fifth in percent minimum tax on domestic profits, as many of you know, even though we have a corporate tax rate hearing the united states with no required men. I'm tax on corporations. The way individuals have there's something called the alternative minimum tax for individuals, meaning you can't use deductions and loopholes to get down to not owing anything that in theory, that's the point of the alternative minimum, MAX Joe Biden, is proposing something similar for corporations on the other side of this Is you ve got on one side, a ten percent tax for offshoring and then you have a ten percent Maiden America tax credit which you would qualify for if you as a
business owner, revitalize a closed or almost closed facility in the United States. If you expand a facility, if you bring some production back to United States and there will also be a ten percent credit available. If you increase manufacturing wages you it has to be based on pre corona virus has a baseline, up to a hundred thousand dollars, this is super interesting. Let me give you an example of how it works. You could, favourably have an employee earning fifty thousand dollars and you could say I'm going to give them a raised to sixty thousand dollars on that ten, thousand dollar raise binds proposal. Is the government will kick you back ten percent of it? So you give a ten thousand dollars the government, gives you a thousand dollar tax credit, so you give someone. Thousand dollars, it only costs, you nine, that's very, very interesting and the macro? Economic impact needs to be scored a, but conceptually, it's very interesting. Now
I wonder how many of you are waiting to see whether I will do this. I would be a hypocrite if I didn't point this out when Joe Biden as it because I sure, as Hell pointed it out when Donald Trump set it all of the talk about bringing man factoring jobs back to the United States? A lot of these jobs are not coming back period. It doesn't matter if Donald Trump is president, it doesn't matter if Joe Biden as President and you know a ten percent credit here- a ten percent tax they're not gonna, do it, and that is because the United States made the decision implicitly decades ago that we are going in the direction of being more of a service based economy, more of a crime it of economy and outsourcing manufacturing to places where it's cheaper, like China, that's the reality and that's a global reality. That's bigger than ten percent tax here, ten percent credit there. Now that being said, if this instead,
They god american companies to, for example, move a call center back to the United States. That is much more plausible and I would find super interesting for for me one of the big Customer service nightmares is when you're trying to deal with something sensitive, for example, banking, payroll airline tickets, internet security and customer service centres are located in other parts of the country, which is fine, I other then, when you are dealing with people that do not speak English had a certain level of proficiency, that really affects customer service and when you look at internet service providers that offshore call centres when you look at airlines in all of these others consistently. It destroys the customer. Experience we ve had recent internet problems. Our internet service providers, tech support is in another, of the world run by me
Joker, english speakers. There not bad people there, no worse than Americans, but it is not a great customer service experience at one point: the payroll company we used to have had customer service overseas. It's not a great experience to be trying to set up you, know the proper tax deductions for employees and to have someone where you don't even know if their english level is at a level of proficiency, were they're getting what you're trying to do. If this idea gets call centres back in the United States. That would be soon interesting, and it would be really good for a lot of companies in any case, we're going to. Continue tracking Joe Biden proposals. This isn't trusting one. Meanwhile Donald Trump is doing rallies and calling Joe Biden stupid. You decide which approach you prefer. I know which one I prefer sometimes when Donald Trump does something we call it humiliating, but it's only humiliating. If you have a certain sensibility, humiliating. If you have a certain worldview Donald Trump last night,
gave an interview to Fox NEWS is shown Hannity that was so cringe worthy, so disgusting that the humiliation has spread much farther than you can imagine Sean Hannity really brought up the story of Donald Trump, allegedly calling dead soldiers who died in combat suckers and losers Donald Trump focused on the idea that it's not true that Didn'T- want to be out in the rain in France and that that's part of why Donald Trump didn't go that Donald Trump says: I've been out in the rain many times and my hair gets wet and it's no big deal. This is the level of discussion that is happening with the president of the union states on one of the top rated cable news shows. We have a raging pandemic with nearly two hundred thousand deaths. We have all sorts of economic problems. We are on the press this of a major election and Donald Trump is unable new thing. It's ok! If my hair gets when I made a speech in the rain, no umbrellas, nobody, but you know they said to just
information. I didn't want to get my air what I've had my ear. What plenty of time I made plenteous speeches of the rain, and if I wasn't it, Why didn't you wouldn't be President right now that I can tell you so it's this information they may up a story about two disgusting words that they say I said, and I didn't have many: what does we have twenty one witnesses? They only have sources. Of course, Trump doesn't seem to realise that a witness to something saying you Didn't say it is a weird thing: if someone comes forward and says I didn't hears Trump say it, that's not proof. It wasn't said all it means. Is you didn't hear it and it's it's very difficult, of course, to prove a negative, that's by very by its very nature
hard to do. Donald Trump doesn't seem to get that and he insists listen. Zack said some guy named Zack Zack said I didn't say it well. That means you didn't hear you say it earlier. This week I reported to you that Donald Trump campaign is tied on cash. They have had to slow down, add spending in some key. Dates the fund raising is a problem and Sean Hannity. This is a mean that this is how turn manure into gold, or at least attempt to Sean Hannity, hilariously, asked Donald Trump is not buying, adds strata dream. Like is not having money, may be a strategy even check this out say that is not the case. A little shy of three hundred million dollars, but I was told by a friend and Florida that that job, Biden has three two one adds running against yours. Is this strategy awaiting, or is this something that you didn't want? Maybe it does ramping up after Labour day, so for you, The I wanted in the last month
and we have about three times more cash now that we have been- and that's without me, putting up any of I needed actual put it up myself. I just by said that two days ago, is that if there's any necessary extra cash but we have a lot of money coming in and small donors. I haven't been heavy on big donors because I dont want to call him. You know when you call big donors, you used to put yourself at a very compromising position. Tromp knows how comp rising, it is to get money from donors because he spent the last four years doing favours to his donors. And it's very interesting to hear Donald Trump say we want
in the last month, in twenty sixteen, this is not a guarantee of anything. Of course, Joe Biden led to day to day is seven point five nationally Hilary lead on this day in twenty. Sixteen was two point seven. So today Joe Biden Lead is nearly three times as large as Hilary was at this time. In twenty. Sixteen, it doesn't mean Trump is going to lose but Trump saying this year is just like twenty. Sixteen is assuming a lot in twenty. Sixteen Donald Trump was not already the president in twenty. Sixteen Donald Trump was much closer to his opponent than where he is today that that those are just factual differences, then Donald Trump goes on to say that right now, the United States has a record number of jobs. What that means is a question you don't know what they're doing cried way,
but they should all be opened, and our countries doing very well. We have record numbers of job. You saw the numbers just came out for the four months, its largest number ever, by far, not even close, so we do not have a record number of jobs right now. Donald Trump has no idea. What he's talking about remember that that the big picture numbers are, we lost close to fifty million jobs during the pandemic. Many of we have come back, ok, but we are still way down. The idea that we have more jobs than ever is something that you have a tough time convincing a twelve year old of even us. March nine year, old, probably wouldn't fall for it, but Donald Trump throws out this generality. We the record number of jobs, it's very much untrue, you're, not gonna, hear any fact checking of it from Sean Hannity and then Also continuing to spread would at this point is just embarrassing disinformation, Donald Trump claiming that you look at our corona virus numbers that there actually amazing.
Just incredible. How well we ve done to me in two and a half million, maybe even more than that. If we did it in a different way and we ve done a real good job, but if you look at our numbers are fatality numbers compared to other countries where Weren t really. I mean it's amazing. What we ve done, we ve been able to do something that a country especially with the kind of size we're dealing with. We ve done double job. The true There, of course, is our now Birds are really really bad. Now, if you don't have a just for our population, the? U S has by far the most corona virus deaths. But we also have a lot of people. We really need to be looking at per capita numbers on a per capita basis. The United States is eleventh highest in the world of more than two hundred countries and territories in terms of deaths per capita. Now, if you take out some of these talks- the countries and territories which concern them.
But like San Marino and Andorra, the United States has the ninth highest deaths per cap, from corona virus envy world. It's not the lowest, it's not in the bottom half it is the ninth highest in the world question to you. When Trump says this stuff, when Trump says we have more jobs than ever, from says we have the best corona virus numbers in the world. Do people believe it are the people who here trump say it and think trumps right? We ve done such a great job, we're so much better off than every other country. Or is it just something here has to say even if no one is going to believe it. I actually dont know the answer. I know there are people who do we're doing well on the virus, but I dont know that they think it because Donald Trump is the one saying. Let me know your thoughts and bigger picture. Does an interview like this do trump any favours?
this a net gain for Trump in some way to be interviewed by Sean Hannity, even if he makes no sense in ways that I can't exactly understand. Does this do damage, or does it really not make a difference whatsoever? If you look at the that the sort of a framework of Alan licked men who predicts elections using a qualitative rather than quantitative system, he would Are you? I think that this doesn't matter that really what impact the election are big issues. What is the status of the economy? is there a major calamity, etc. There are others who may have a different perspective. No in general, Interviews like this have any impact on the election result. We would expect the David Pachmann Shell, David Pachmann died, gun If you are anything like me, you probably aren't thrilled with the eye
the idea of going into a doctor's office right now and thankfully there is a practical and affordable way to take control of your health and get personalized care from the comfort of your home. It's a service called steady empty there. One of our sponsors, you take a quiz. You get matched with a licensed primary, care physician who understand your health needs? You have a one hour, video call with your new doktor. You establish a meaningful relationship with them and, after that, your doctors available to you any time by text phone or video. Tat. This is not a random doktor on call. Each doktor at Steady M D has a limited number of patients, so they actually have time to listen to you. You get the personal attention that you deserve. They can do almost everything and,
in person. Doktor can do perform medical evaluations. Talk to you about health concerns, send prescriptions to your home or local pharmacy and anything they can't do online deal quickly. Set you up with and in person provider to do things like blood tests is in. Ample. You dont need insurance, it's only ninety nine bucks a month with no other fees or co pays. There are so many practical advantages to using steady m d for primary care and its also so much more affordable, go to steady, MD, dot com, slash pachmann, to take the frequency and see which doktor is right for you. I took their quiz, they matched me with a doctor who specializes in my particular health, needs the doktor they gave me is really perfect fit for me again. That's steady, empty dot com, slash Pachmann, there's, no risk, no commitment to get started. That's S tea!
a d, why empty dotcom forward, Slash P, Kay EM an David Pachmann, Shell, David Pachmann, dot com. When a couple of months ago we got these really wild poles, nationally polls that had Donald Trump down to Joe Biden by ten points nationally by twelve points. Nationally, there were even a few that said, Donald Trump was down by fifteen points nationally. I said at the time Whether or not those poles were accurate at the time and remember accurate means within the margin of error. So if it says fifteen, it could really be eight depending on the margin of error I repeated at the time, It is very unlikely that on election day, we're going to see it in point margin in the popular vote. It is extraordinarily unlikely. I dont think any of us should be imagining that that's the case we should imagine it's going to be.
Much tighter and it means we all have to vote at the same time if these policies, coming out, we can't really ignore them, and indeed there are now multiple new polls that have Joe Biden up by twelve there, as a new Reuters Ipsos Poem, which says that Joe Biden leads Donald Trump by twelve point nationally. That's among likely voters fifty two to forty. There is also a new USC poll which says Joe Biden is up by twelve and importantly in that one Joe Biden is pulling at fifty three said so in both the Reuters Ipsos Paul in the U S C Paul not only is Donald I'm losing by double digits, but Joe Biden is over fifty percent support, which is an important matter, to keep an eye on now in these pulls somewhere between three and five, percent of likely voter say there just undecided right now. Now I've talked about this before who are those people? How could you possibly be undecided at this point unless you literally not paid it there, in politics- and in that case, how likely argued actually vote. That's a question if we say the electorate is expect
to be about a hundred and thirty million people. If five percent are undecided, that is six and a half million voters right six and a half million voters who are looking at the situation in saying I might low Biden or I might vote Trump. I can t to be stunned and appalled. By that reality, I would love to talk to some of those undecided voters. I invite you to Call- and I have not heard from any of them so far. Now it's really important to remember that a popular vote margin correlates different key to the likelihood of an electoral victory for Democrats verses. Republicans, there is a structural, balance against Democrats where, as you know, sometimes a crash when the popular vote and dont become present. Because they lose the electoral college, as I'm sure you remember, unless your four years old and which I don't even know that we have four year olds in our audience in twenty. Sixteen Donald Trump lost the popular vote by two
point one, but he won the electoral college thanks to seventy something thousand votes in three states: Nate Silver from five. Thirty eight did something important. He crunch the numbers to tell us give in a particular popular vote. Margin. How likely is it that Joe Biden will win the electoral college? And again I understand that the numbers, skewed in this way, because of the urban Earl divide and because of some other sort of base level factors that favour, Republicans in the electoral college, even at the even while being at a disadvantage in the popular vote. So if Joe and wins the popular vote by under one point, his odds of becoming president of Adding two hundred and seventy electoral votes are only six percent, Joe Biden can win the popular vote by one to two points. He has a twenty two percent chance of winning the electoral college
if Joe Biden matches Hillary Clinton Popular Vote win somewhere in the two to three point range aid is still slightly. More likely that Trump wins the electoral college. In other words, if Biden gets a similar margin of victory in the popular vote to Hilary, he only has a forty six percent chance of winning the electoral college that that's why we all have to vote only when Joe Biden Popular vote led gets beyond three points. Does Joe by become the likely candidate to become president if he wins between three and four points in the popular vote he has a seventy four percent chance of being president and, as you can see, if Joe Biden were to get a six point, popular vote when the odds of becoming president go above ninety nine percent. If in some other universe, Joe Biden, actually were to win. The popular vote by ten It would be all but certain that he becomes the next president of the United States so that that's how I would be thinking about the popular vote.
Versus the electoral vote scenario. Now, let's look at Joe Biden Average led right now, because the twelve pointless, It is not representative of the average. If you look at Joe Biden Average in all national poles, he's up by six point: nine. Ok, if Joe Biden Word a win by six point, nine, as I just showed you he will almost certainly when the electoral college right well, yes, and no, if he really wins by six point- nine, yes, but remember, that there is a margin of error here now when you verging pull results. You can't just say: ok binds up by six point nine. If the average Paul has a three percent margin of error. For each candidate that means may be Jos only up by zero point. Nine. There are some complex mathematics involved in full peering out an overall margin of error when you're already
averaging pull results which in themselves have margins of air it doesnt matter. The point is Hillary Clinton ended up with a popular vote when that was two thirds the size of what the polling predicted. So let me put it a different way. Hillary Clinton was expected to win by three in the past Does she won by two? That means her. Real margin was two thirds of the expected margin. If we apply that to Joe Biden, if we say Biden, is winning by six point nine, but we're only expecting him to win by two thirds of that. That would be about a four point: popular vote margin of victory. If that work, case it still doesn't guarantee victory for Joe Biden, but it certainly starts to look pretty good. What does this mean this means. We all have to vote. That's really all that this means and
even though the popular vote numbers may be looking pretty good, we do have to talk about what's going on in Minnesota, which is not looking quite so get so on this programme, I try to strike the right balance between in complacent and being alarmist. I try to void being either. I try to just be realistic and kind of give it to you straight simply, telling you that there is concern among Democrats about Minnesota. I think is accurate. I dont think its alarmist and I don't think it's complacent Donald Trump. According to some democratic strategists, could win this aid of Minnesota and you might be worried. You may be wondering men. Soda are we? Should we really be worried about that? Why? Well, the truth is that Minnesota hasn't voted for. A reply looking presidential candidate since nineteen. Seventy two, that's just shy of fifty years ago, and if you look at the polling, sort of looks ok right, I mean it looks ok for Joe Biden. Joe Biden
currently leading the polling in Minnesota by an average of three point? Seven? But the problem is that three point: seven really isn't that much to be comfortable with me. Soda was actually already almost a problem for Hillary Clinton and twenty. Sixteen Hillary Clinton did win Minnesota in twenty sixteen, but only about one point: five, and if you look further into history, Barack Obama. One Minnesota by eleven in two thousand eight. He wanted by eight in twenty twelve John carry one Minnesota by four in two thousand for Al Gore, one it only by two in the two thousand- and so when you see it this close, and you know that there's voter suppression- that's not the point. Is meddling. That's not in the polling, there's all sorts of things that are not reflected by the polling. I am not particularly comfortable
Joe Biden being up by only three point: seven in the state of Minnesota. Now there is another reason that Minnesota could be a problem and Minnesota could turn into d with scorn: sin of twenty twenty remember in twenty. Sixteen Hillary Clinton was widely criticised for not. Spending time in Wisconsin Estate that she ultimately lost by a very small margin, and it was one of those three states that flipped the results to Donald Trump L. Coralie Joe Biden may have a similar situation right now and what I mean by that is in Florida, Joe Biden is struggling with latino voters right now in Florida. Seems as though Joe Biden is going to have to devote even more resources to Florida. Florida always a focal point, particularly for Democrats, because taking flaw, away from the republican candidate is so powerful in these electoral races to two hundred and seventy. But again, if Joe Biden has to put more time and effort to Florida than he would otherwise have do ordinarily have two: were it not for the hispanic boat
he may not have the resources or time in Minnesota and Minnesota is exactly the type of state that the polling could get wrong. Remember the twenty sixteen polling was mostly correct at the now national level at the national level, the polling said Hilary up. Three She won by more than two in the popular vote, but it is also true that the polling was not correct in Wisconsin in Wisconsin, Hillary Clinton in the polling was winning by six and a half, and you might recall, as I just mentioned five minutes ago, Donald Trump, one Wisconsin. By about three quarters of a point, the Wisconsin polling was very very wrong. So what do we do about Minnesota about all of these situations? What we learn from the past? We learn from past experiences. We understand that Democrats are worth
he'd about Minnesota, and so we should be worried about Minnesota and we should focus on it when from advisers. What living backup, when trunk publicly says all are poles, look great were winning everything its bs. We all know it's bs when, privately from advisers and republican strategist, say we're writing off Michigan. We understand that Michigan could get complicated when privately, they start looking again at a state like Minnesota. We your stand, that we cannot ignore it, we never stop the focus on getting out the vote and one of these states could be the difference maker. Now, in the coming weeks, I'm going to show you some of my plausible Alex moral maps. Now why the hell? Would you listen to me about that? Use you really shouldn't. I got it way wrong in not in twenty sixteen and twenty sixteen. I believed the Wisconsin
willing and so on my map. I had Wisconsin definitely for Hilary. I was wrong, but I am going to give you some scenarios and incredibly therein scenario for for this upcoming election. That would put the electoral votes at two hundred and sixty nine two thousand two hundred and sixty nine. It's not the most likely area, but it's also not that unlikely, pens on main being split as they do in terms of electoral vote, so we will get to that. We have plenty of time for that. We have a voice smell number, which is too one nine to David P. I invite you. Yes, you to call any time if you call it four in the morning, as many people do, go ahead and call it four in the morning or call at a more normal time. Here is a voice mail asking,
really a pretty important question about what will Republicans do about Trump if Trump loses in November? I did it. I wouldn't talk enough about how the trouble is he's gonna, be twisting from the sidelines constantly and experienced report simply think he's base will still hold them up ass, a God. If you think I'm members Congress will die influenced by him or to disconnect Sturgis haven't eastward. Nor have answers about. Thank you. I think it is ultimately going to depend. That's a good question if Trump loses, but it just keeps tweeting tweeting tweeting any as a presence and he's on Fox news. What will actual elected republicans do? Will they still sort of give deference the Trump and listened to Trump, or will they denounce him? I think will likely be. Neither I think the most likely scenario is if Donald Trump loses and ultimately he will go, he will resist it. He will claim rigged, but ultimately he will go my senses. Yes, Donald Trump will keep tweeting. Yes, Donald
will continue to be interviewed on. Maybe only Fox news, maybe he'll shift away, and maybe he will start his own right wing network of some kind. My instinct is Republicans will not widely denounced Trump, but those sort of pretend it never happened. Remember how George W Bush was not a big part at all of John Mccain thousand eight campaign, because George W Bush is very unpopular and polarizing Donald Trump is ten times more than that, I'm so my expecting would be, that there would be a lot of sort of pretending. The last four years didn't happen. If Donald Trump Loses- and I do not see, it is likely that Trump will shut up. I think that he will continue to use twitter and platforms because he's narcissistic any desperate. Her attention. All the time we have a great bonus show for you today. I will tell you and Pat will tell you what we planned for our upcoming staff vacation? We are going to be on vacation next week. The show is not being cancelled, we are going to be back. More powerfully than ever pay.
Only with a million Youtube subscribers after that vacation, but we are taking next week off. We will about what we're going to do. We will talk about this total bogus nomination Trump received from a far right norwegian politician for the Nobel Peace Prize. We will talk about the Astor Seneca vaccine trial being paused Some people are making a way bigger deal out of this than it actually is we're going to talk about that, and also very interesting news from the field of? Is it archaeology dipshit authorities discovered thirteen completely sealed twenty five hundred year old coffins super interesting news. We will talk about the application. And much more on today's bonus show. How do you get access to the bonus? Show it's easy really really easy. You go to join Pachmann Dotcom, that's W W W doubt join Pachmann Dotcom and you sign up
It takes under a minute and you can use the coupon code. This is twenty slash, twenty to save sixty six percent off of your membership. Actually, no, I'm sorry! This is twenty slash. Twenty saves you, forty percent. It's still good! If you want to save sixty six percent, the coupon code is twenty. Twenty, now twenty slash twenty now I will see you on the bonus show.
Transcript generated on 2020-09-10.