Tony Pasquariello of Goldman Sachs' Global Markets Division explains how and why major stock market indices have backtracked somewhat from record highs in August, and what it all means for the forward-looking equity outlook. "I don't think we should get too worked up about the turbulence we've encountered in September, just given the astonishing run the preceded it.," he says."
This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
Welcome to our exchanges, Goldman Sachs Markets, update for fridays intemperate teeth each week. We check him with a leader across the firm to get a could take on what they're watching and markets objects. Seaward Bob out of copper communications here. The firm and joining us today is one of our most frequent guess. A fan favoured county Pask realm of our global markets, Vision Tony walk about the programme, thanks sharing could be with you after a big one. The stock markets since March September seen a lot of turbulence. Give us some good numbers to understand how some of the major stock market in seas have come off from the August ice sure end Ass has been some retrace men in the major equity and sees in the first three weeks of September. So, for example, the NASDAQ down around six percent
from the end of August as a peace doubt about half of that, and you ve seen some pressure in some of the more popular stocks we ve been fan, favorites with both the retail and the professional training communities of, for example, the Fang Man CO or, if you will, which is Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, Google, Microsoft apple, an invidious that group of stocks is down the better part of eight percent since the end of it. just that said, there is some pockets of strength in the month for sure so, for example, in the non dollar markets, most of the major international indices, that we track are high from the end of August. Yours, index, Japan, sneak gay, the emerging markets, more broadly, they had all performed comparatively pretty well, and I should say Jake. Let's not forget that August was a totally fourteen months. For the: U S: markets, for example, NASDAQ was up overlap, ten percent in the month alone- and this is an index which is essentially just doubled since the end of twenty eight
so I don't think we should get. You worked up about the turbulence we encounter in September just given the astonishing run that preceded it, fair enough, tribute the recent down Wordpress price action to technical fundamentals, low, but above and just described for some factors that are play and should we need to gender. This as regards the longer term outlook for stocks, itinerary The majority of this local precious been more technical in nature than anything else, and is a couple. Thanks to note on this front one, you ve got a very heavy calendar of new issue in recent months in the form of ip owes and fallen off reigns in fact, new issue via equity and then equity linked offerings is up. Over seventy five percent year on year and now, Deals have probably gone very very well, but it's been asleep. never get him out of paper that PM's need to make room for at the same time, months, like July and August, saw
short volumes in a single stock options, market and a retail demand for risk. That was significant and very well documented that sea to have cooled down a bit since then so it's not unreasonable the markets. Consolidating a bit up here particular weakens better than on a fundamental side. The latest fist undergoes Asian feels a bit stalled and look, we have some real that risk just around the corner at the bigger picture her away from technicals again, the fundamental side with respect for how far the mark come off the Marsh lows, and given that it Can we have some one to chop between out in the year I attended the big dynamics in the game as leads to monetary policy and global growth remain very friendly and that in the end we're still believers. The stimulus should long at last, the pandemic a lot of very sophisticated investors at current price levels, with a little bit of the rich
when, as you said, do those folks that you're talking to think stock still working sense or they starting to capitalize on what might be a slightly more normalize price. I'd say this: most any of the traditional valuation, metrics stocks, the markets still expensive. So if we look at play, The earnings ratios price, the bug ratios and by the cells ratios. All of these metrics are in the ninety percent I'll or higher relish to their own history the one big exception. This, of course, is still any comparison to the bond market, and I know I'm not breaking news, and I say this, but global fixed income meals have collapsed. In the recent era. So, for example, you ass government bond yields in real terms are no negative across the entire curved and so when you compare the earnings yields of yes M p. The summit, the available yield in the Us Treasury market or the high grade MR bond market.
That analysis looks much less demanding. It would suggest that stocks are still cheap. At least relative to the bond market, Oh me last spoke: you thought investors will pretty optimistic about the likelihood of a relatively near term carbon nineteen vaccine, as that sentiment changed in his that affected investors, willingness to put on more risk. What's the view on the vaccine or the probability of a medical breakthrough here, MID September, shortsighted the vaccine, variable obviously stolen, very large in the mark, equation, Andrews Business on a daily basis with headlines that help calibrate the expectation around the I mean of approval and also of the timing and skill of delivery. My senses, the market still has roads, high expertise, It's here, such as basic needs, it see consistent with what the base case our in research team would be, which is what happened, is one vaccine, seen by the
the air and then by the end of the second quarter. Next year, it's been delayed in scale into the broader population. Now it's only one variable in that treaty equation and again, the election also lose very large alongside the traditional macro variables, like the trajectory of growth in the council. a policy of dismissal and monetary side, but again it certainly a topic where investors would still be engaged and again were generally called for our closer and closer to those hopes be realised. Alright, twenty five For I catch up with us today, as always pleasure. Have you on thanks? That's all for this week's markets up on exchange, the common Saxony case, you missed it check out our we represent this week where we talk to some of the summer interns from the class of twenty twenty who enjoyed the first ever historic virtual summer internship, and we also went through a survey with the internet and how they felt about that experience and how they feel about life in common.
More generally as for listening and hope everyone has agreed weaken. His podcast was accord on the afternoon of Wednesday September. Sixteen in the year two thousand twenty thanks for listen all price references and market forecasts correspond to the date of this recording. This podcast should not be copied distributed, published or reproduced in whole or in part. The information contained in this package does not constitute research or recommendation from any Goldman Sachs.
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Transcript generated on 2021-07-02.