This is exchanges of Goldman Sachs will discuss developments currently shaping markets. Industries in the global economy objects your comrade of corporate communications here at the firm, the top of today's episode is our operate. Annual growth in earnings forecast unexpected Those problems at Washington to give you an index. Look on this topic. We're going to share caller was held for clients earlier today, without economists and strategies that feature gone. Heartiest Goldman Sachs Chief economist Out Philips are chief what of autonomous David a calm chief- U S, economists David certain chief yours these strategies and was hosted by Allison Nathan, a senior strategist in the firms research division now over, that conversation hope you find it informative good morning afternoon and I think everyone thinks for joining us on this update call we are going through.

At an update on the: U S fiscal stimulus programme and on our growth and earnings forecast, both of which we made large revisions. Due on the card, today. With me, we have our thoughts, are key political economists at young, heartiest our chief economist David Miracle, or keep you at the economist and David cost and our keep. You have equity strategy though, without what's Divan Alec, let's start with you. Obviously Congress has been hard at work, but nothing is quite done at this point. What is the latest on the? U S fiscal package in terms of size and common you're so in terms of other details, is at least as they stand right now overall style, looks like it's in the range of seven percent of GDP, or so said? Looking like one point, For one point: five trillion in terms of those sort of the headlines

number of what the sun. It looks like it all consider potentially today, but without sad important, to keep in mind two things regarding its eyes so number one. Some of the fiscal resources that would be devoted to the cupboard response would come: in the form of financial guarantees and things like that, as opposed to sort of traditional. You know demand side as I'd stimulus, so it's it's a little apples, the orange could comparing some of these provisions to other provisions. There, obviously all important but somewhat different, and second, not all of the spending necessarily or all of the d, a sort of fiscal reaction would come necessarily twenty twenty. Sometimes we are. These things do it over into the following year or the couple of years. So, while the these are clearly big and getting bigger. Take them with a slight gran. It's all just because I'm telling you haven't an incentive to talk about these

numbers that are maybe a little bit larger and I'll turn out to be. As far as the the composition, it is similar to why we and others were looking out late last week, but some things have been added, so the things there are similar first, a small business facility arguably one of the most important pieces of legislation. Basically what it What do you provide loans to small businesses? defined as businesses with less than five hundred employees, And there is one exception to that which is in the house fatality sectors, the hotels, restaurants, etc. is a located There are five under way. Those loans would go through the banking system be guaranteed. by the Small Business Administration hundred percent, better guarantee, and they would be

given in the size proportional to specifically bunch of payroll expanded the wages plus benefits. would be the maximum wound size under this programme. Once the businesses have these loud, they would be legible for loan forgiveness, for they wouldn't have to pay back alone, pressed it. They have spent the entire amount on payroll mortgage in rent or utilities. So, if, if they spend it is they have to pay it back if they spend it on that they did I have to pay back the personal gentlemen things. Otherwise the radio be around seven percent, so bad whole program is worth around Three hundred billion dollars is allowed to what was being discussed last week, but its change the little bit.

The thing that new related to business one day be what all the trees, business, airlines, cargo and Arab, basically would be getting seventy five billion dollars across the three of them. So it's getting airlines April air Cargo, seventeen upper aerospace in low? mom guarantees the Treasury potentially with that involvement, and in return for that, but rules around Roy Retention and so on. In addition- and this is the particular Newport there's another four hundred and twenty five billion that would be given to the regulation on the ear south would then Cappel eyes a boy capital for a number of authorities that is still somewhat controversial, not so much around the concept, but around the details.

answer specifically the problems. A dozen congressional democrats have its round the open ended nature of the treasuries authority. Today essentially do more or less whatever they want with this money, because the exchange stabilization pond, where this money would be going, it has essentially been. for almost a hundred years. It is something that the Treasury has. Rod authority over, they always have answers concern about trying to limit what the Treasury can do with this money, and beyond that, there's also a number of questions around what constraints would be put on the cap chinese, receiving funding, specifically the airlines and the ones were receiving the more direct assistance around employ your retention, executive compensation by banks and so on. So I would say overall, it seems fairly likely to us that this kind of facility will be included. What's less clear is what you know

This will be put on the companies that are actually borrowing one other thing to know on that facility when the FED made their announced, but this morning they announced they would be providing these credit facilities bore primary corporate credit and then also dairy market corporate credit, but, has no announcement regarding municipal that, in addition to the corporate credit facilities that the legislation of the Senate would create the Senate legislate, It would also allow for purchases of state and local obligations as well, and that is one big difference that the legislation would make in addition to just a much more positive stance from outer resource it. Beyond that. The other two things out just mention one is tax relief for individuals. This would come. I think most people are aware through aid acts, rebate, twelve hundred dollars per adult with an income, limitation of seventy five thousand for individuals

a hundred and fifty four couples, and then the other piece is unemployment compensation and so there the bill would essentially add to the amount at every unemployed worker gets every week. So, instead of getting here their wages roughly, which is the standard benefit. They would be getting half their wages plus another six hundred dollars per week. That's probably Donna down going to cost below in the tens of billions, if not more than that to that is also a pretty substantial benefit individuals and then finally, you know the other questions are around where there are or omissions in the Senate bill that some Democrats would like to see so the main omissions at this point one is aid to state and local governments. Regional phase to build that has already passed and become law, about. We estimate fifty billion dollars or so of eight states through the medicate programme? This building

have anything in addition to that Democrats are likely to push for additional fiscal aid to states, and my guess is that they will end up getting it and then the other question is around spending on the healthcare sector itself. The bill does have additional resources to the healthcare sector, essentially for hospitals dealing with all of us. It looks likely that there will be national: better all spending for the healthcare sector, probably other federal spending on top of authority in this bill. So if you take those things added to what seems to already be there you're getting two numbers that are more like one point: five one point, six trillion at least I'm so maybe I'll stop there. In terms of the details, I think ain't. Thank you so much we're gonna move the David miracle. We made them wiki large, download refugees in a: U S, growth, forecasts and David. Can you pass through that forecast provision with behind

tat I ve Alison. So last Friday we marked on r: U S growth forecast to a quarterly annualized pasted, negative fixing Q one negative twenty four include two plus twelve include three and plus panting queue for that would leave full year growth for twenty twenty at negative three point: eight percent on an annual average basis. This would be a truly historic decline. That too, to number is two and a half times the worse number. We have seen in a quarter in modern history of the: U S national accounts, we get to these numbers by estimating the likely hit three three channels. First, reduction in the type of services, consumption that require face to face interaction. Second, a reduction in building activity and then third, a reduction in manufacturing due to reduce demand for good supply,

Jane disruptions and plant closures due to work or fears of the virus which we ve already seen take place, but the auto makers, we ve calibrated these facts using very timely high frequency indicators, which we ve been sending out every Monday on Wednesday, as well as a compilation of anecdotal data from press reports. estimate that these effects on to a nearly ten percent reduction in the level of GDP by April, we assume a gradual normalization from there with the virus drag fading by about ten percent each month. That view reflects a combination of people learning to adjust and possible medical advances without taking a strong view on you know exactly when a breakthrough might occur. These assumptions imply a negative twenty four percent annual growth pacing cue to and because that number is so huge, even

slow normalization, we pencil and implies big quarter on quarter growth rates in the back half of the year. These downgrades to our growth forecast imply a major deterioration in the labour market. This appears to be happening very, very quickly, black week, we aggregated dozens of news stories from state level, jobless, claims reports and they reveal a huge and historic surge and lay offs over the last week. I we think somewhere around too, and a quarter million jobless claims were probably filed, which would be about triple the biggest. We can? U S, history. Those numbers will come out Thursday. That will probably be the key. U S data point for the weak in terms of the unemployment rate path, we expected to eventually peak about five and a half a percentage point tyre around nine percent, that is

what more than the usual empirical relationship between GDP and unemployment would imply, but we think that make sense in these exceptional circumstances, because the GDP head is likely to occur disproportionately in labour, intensive industries that imply many low wage workers and because businesses like restaurants and retail stores, are facing an extremely abrupt disruption of cash flow that will force them to lay people off. That's all for me. Ok! They. Let me leave it at that, but David a party for having some technical did, that These were the on joining the call right now we're gonna go straight to David. Casa has also made a very large down a revision to earnings forecasts for this year. David. Can you please walkers through that that the third? What was the third cut, is the hardest, or something like that? Most painful would begin here I was driving review well, music division out of use of the poorest countries, the deepest, but the report we wrote of bright aid following with David miracles, comment about the big gdp. Religion so lowered. Our has to be done

hundred earnings for the third, time in a month or now, looking for thirty, three percent decline for earnings two thousand and twenty compared with two thousand and nineteen the varied that again decline? it relates to the swiftness one which the economy has been deteriorating was why we had these three different cut. I had a couple of exhibits that that would be helpful to show in the context of this. The first is it pays number, I guess a feminist like them and which is the other a majority in the market, The EU has equity market realized one month, volatility going back, thirty years, and you can see the concept that we. an extraordinary piece I'm going back to. Thirty? Are you ve only seen it previously the financial crisis. At the end of two thousand and eight The idea of gaily moves better, been there typically averaging six percent for the month of large eyes you to use the extreme, and illustrated of the fact it.

the information flow is still disjointed as to what, What is actually happening is borne by states, have shelter and placed, and various other miserable interval. patient, before moving around and so on. The following slide actually shows the path of you: a stock market, as we and vision of this year. Which is already down thirty two percent in a month. the idea of the market. Trothing sometime in the latter part of the second quarter. Forget you We have two reasons why that is the case die in a man, Ultimately, the economy goes out, in terms of economic activity, part of which a lot, part of which relate to the scandalous that Alec they spoke about, which is almost everybody. the U S economy coming through, and so that is a big one. Big big reasons for that The idea in the Far EAST lies shows the hat of overall GPS earnest pressure groups, but he hasn't be five hundred

one of the reasons why the market like it to go lower and that is to say that the companies might be recording their results. For another month, the most of the companies will report between concentrated between April a twentieth and roughly made a second that narrow you're, a time when most covers report result of course done. Companies will be reporting sterner than that, but that the damage are almost two thirds of that market. Cap reporting in that and appeared a time and then Die and is an absence of real information. They're gonna be reporting their first quarter result, but also me at the second quarter: That is, the worst the nature of the year of the economic environment, Europe and David, and also from an earnings perspective, Ultimately, we do get back later this year in terms of the growth of by the fourth quarter Joe revenge for the. U S, stock market to be going lower before it goes. Eirik part relates to

where we can justify expectation still have to come down for investors to be some confidence as to what the earnings of their paying for likely to be that's first issue. The second issue was the idea positioning of: U S. Patrol managers, the mutual funds and the hedge funds. and the international investors and the retail investors and the pension funds ownership categories. In the: U S: equity market. We can see from the positioning relative to other. There ranges. Typically, I have exposed. They were a key global almost to generate actions above average at the end of February, and as a last Friday evening, they were around one and a half standard deviations having reduced their holdings are losing their position but important ways you see and crossed over the past decade. Other point in time,

when the market is hit a bottom, the tenement I've been but you're clean, to the tune of two and a half to three standard? to our conclusion is that there still more stalling pressure likely to happen with due date and a prime brokerage day Our colleagues in the affairs of a government that, where are they, calm down, but not necessarily as much Ado grossly has taken place till we the economic activity, were expecting to get better were expecting this deal more stalling pressure to take place Do we want the pan, cresting of the number of new cases that are being diagnosed recognised in the testing, those or three metrics that we would look for in the absence of that, the market is greatly the move downwards towards a level of about two thousand. The market currently around twenty three hundred and twenty seven five today like in a move towards two thousand level, but ultimately

rising back. His investors began to focus on the two thousand and twenty one private outlook and for last year with one hundred and fifty five dollars this year about one ten dollars down almost thirty three percent, but rather back very significantly for next year at about one hundred and seventy dollars, which is almost fifty five percent, and I was consistent with some of the experiences in a bear get an event driven bear market which we are currently having thoroughly judging by the by the virus. Yes, do we get very sharp decline and then Greece whispered about thousand starboard within local questioner yeah that'd, be great. That's good. Great webcast questions at this point gave a miracle many queer is about the risk to our views and in particular how we think the second of the year will unfold. Can you give? color and what we're a team. Right now and what the risks are around, that forecast Sure you know

we in terms of when we go back to normal and what that implies about the restart growth forecast. For now, we ve tried to take a relatively agnostic view on that by assuming that the virus drag page gradually over time that ten percent of it drops off each month. I dont think of that is necessarily implying. Some big breakthrough treatment or some major change in anti virus itself. I think of that in part as adaptation and in part, as a kind of various gradual improvements on the medical side. Obviously, there's a lot of risk that unity, actually to the upside. If you did have some treatment breakthrough earlier that, eventually, when the bounced back comes, it will look a lot more Hoddan and sharper than what we have in there. Just given the massive magnitude of the pull back and the fact that if people are suddenly willing to go outside, go to, restaurants, go to stores and so on, a lot of businesses would reopened

much more quickly in a typical in a recession in terms of the downside risks. One thing that worries me is that we are now seeing workers being afraid to go to work at places like, like God, oh plants, that becomes more broad based in the. U S, I think that would imply some inside risk, an idea, certainly something we could see at the automakers. For example, workers have basically taken the view that hundreds of them touched the same parts on an assembly line had this is a date environment to be- and we have made some allowance for that in our forecasts by not for serve a true broad, based shutting down of taken action and manufacturing, because everyone is fearful of contracting the virus discipline questions that David is obviously we have these dream on unemployment. Now forecasted. Can you compare this? I mean how quickly could those come down, and maybe this is also

question for african away. Given their papers, fiscal programmes are being put in place to temporary support. People who are before alone and laid off for short periods time they can. Those members come back down quick Normally they dealt anything a lot of questions about how this could evolve from a labour market perspective an empty, be taken sure. I think there are two questions here. One is how policy will affect the labour market numbers than the other is once we do start to recover. How quickly does that come back on the policy side? You know, we don't know it's going to be in the fall in the final bill yet, but I think there are two relevant provisions are: on the one hand, we already have in place some ramping up of the generosity of unemployment. Insurance states are allowing more people to qualify for that. So if you're say a restaurant owner who want to be able to rehire his workers when all of this is over and doesn't want antagonize them too much that higher replacement read them, Generous unemployment insurance might make it a little bit easier for you to layer

occurs off an essentially put them onto the you know it put those costs onto the government's budget. On the other hand, it sounds like the bill will include some small business lending which will require business is not to lay off workers, so I think there are other pressures in both directions. One would. The first would encourage higher unemployment rate, the second a lower its it hard to see at this point, which one of those will be more effective, but I think policy will eventually play some role in just how much the unemployment rate rises in terms of whether or not we would see a bounced back that is quicker than we ve seen. Typically, I think the answer is probably yes. So historically, we ve never seen the unemployment rate come down following your session by more than eight tenths of a percentage point in a quarter, and that was in the early eighties, when the recession was induced by a switch to very high interest rates and then suddenly a switch to very low in more normal recession to take leave and longer than that. But I think, is different. This time around is once people are suddenly willing to go outside gotta, restaurants and so on. You probably should see a wave of hiring of, for example, waiters, add businesses that had previously been shut down show in terms of the rebound phase. When it comes, I think we can be more optimistic than than history would imply in terms of labour market recovery, Wilma him for you, David, which relate you. You know it gets to clarify that our forecasts do in bed with the magnitude of fiscal stimulus that include disgusted at the end of one point. Twenty one point, five Elect caviar, but that they do include

as well as these bad actions- and you know, if there's anything incremental, we would expect the FED to do or think the feds should be doing this environment assure show Alec talked about what what the fetid unveiled this morning. Our basic thought is that those acts These are very helpful in terms of keeping their corporate debt I functional. We would expect the final bill to make more funds available for these facilities so that the head is able tab to operate at the size, but achieved as necessary in terms of your question about the fiscal stimulus, yes, that is included in our growth forecasts. In fact, if you, if you look on the slides, I think it's on flight, I have you, can see we build up to our overall growth forecast, a combination of accounting for those three and forms of virus hit to the economy that I mentioned earlier today, inside, but then also the fiscal stimulus on the upside. Let me I'm yon has been able to join

and put. Let me turn to you briefly, because there are a number of questions about the global growth forecasts why don't we headed out together? Can we put the? U S downward in the context of global and just give it a quick in a snapshot of what we think globally. At this point, and die, and we will get to a lot of client questions in that way. While we were feeling, I think, a lot of a thing in a number of economies with very large and very sudden stop activity in a lot of the playful outside of Asia. Asia is a bit of a special case, of course, China already. what we think is a forty two percent quota on quota analyze decline in maybe in the first quarter, but if you Europe and the U and places like Canada and Australia. Those big heads are really going to come in and in the second quarter,

and gum central banks and and governments are extremely active in trying combat, especially the the second order effects of that being hit to activity in the first order hit is somewhat unavoidable and not really something that that central banks or fiscal policy can address bar but machine wrapped in a pretty much everywhere in terms of where we are now for global growth? or two thousand and twenty of the whole our forecast. At the moment, a top down forecast is minus. One percent, which would be a bit weaker than in the global financial crisis or the year following the global financial crisis, when the GDP impact was visible it's a pretty deep global recession body. but really very, very front loaded in the first half of the year, especially in the second quarter. For

if countries outside of outside of Asia and apply to China in particular, I can't wait. Let em David coffin, if you're still on their archives things about that thirty two hundred year and target some pushed back and and how we can know that, given that we don't know the trajectory of the disease in the economy, obviously how are you thinking about SK the round around this deal, Ok, so just to clarify his three thousand as a level for the Essen be five hundred at the end of two thousand and twenty and hard at that time. the equity market we expect will be stone, the earnest prospects, the neck and other activities in two thousand twenty one in it. He heard from David Miracle a minute ago and also of your view from government that research is that we have the economy as a result of fiscal stimulus

A significant amount of peoples cannot, of course, pushing through the economy. That goes increased activity each year, and that is really the underlying force behind the idea of. U S equity market we covering for another one point number two is the rule: Evaluation Equity market compared with fixed income alternatives are still mean that the risk visa for equities is extremely wide. by yields have been streaming volatile recently somewhere between fifty basis points in one percent, voting on the day, It means that the earnings yield for the market is days is extremely wide, unexpected in it can to widen between and probably the middle of the year, but the will decline, someone as the visibility and expectations of growth into twenty one improvements it at the thought process that we have I'd better economic growth risk premium comes down

and violation of equity, looks particular attractive versus is the underlying Ernest growth prospects, David, while we're with you another question on you know, does the. How would the election factor in at this point? Is it even worth talking about, or do you expect to see the stock markets to sensitive to that getting arise with election happening and throw the remarkable? How does the job, because I just the other remarkable how fast things change of about a month ago and always focus thing on that year, Bernie Sanders was gonna, be sweeping into into the democratic nomination, of course, that worst map- you know Joe Biden, looks to be the year the presumptive winner, the nomination, nations like at a time when the near term, the driver of the equity market is likely to be entirely in when the focused on the

the virus and whether the number of cases that are reported are they too benchley just tolerated, and it turned out that day a key inflection point that we will go back so I know our hope. Please do online as a political economist and probably address that I've had been focusing as a strategy a lot on the prospects of eight of about to form if you had a casual for a unified government not clear what policy will be a poster post election depends on the path of the economy. I would perhaps have more that offered on this point, yeah I'm in geography, two quick points on that to minute. Just in terms of the way surround the election. I would agree that particular today,

remark in it does seem like that. The main issue, why would be tax policy and an tax reform? I won't get into the specific, except to say, Under a and all democratic scenario, you probably would see the attacks by just that would increase the corporate tax rates somewhat under an all round, lookin scenario. You know discussion have been that we could actually seas additional tax, cutting potentially for in a middle incomes unclear. Frankly, what the prospect is for that now in that scenario, simply because the federal government will it brought such a large deficit this year, it's a little harder to see how you actually would see if you know of any further fiscal easing in twenty twenty one scenario and then, of course, there is the scenario where you have to buy the government and adapt scenario. I think you're probably not very much happens.

Have you got that so much even of the post election policy response now really depends on what happens with the economy over the course of the next several months and how come I am the administration which our administration Gilda Day to deal with continuing the response to this and twenty twenty one. So, ultimately, it feels like that's gonna, be as much about factor even pose, election as the the election outcome will be a great man, maybe question to penetrate Bert. who answers from one for me on and one from David cost in. Basically, there should kinds of questions about if this goes on for if we stay mass of mitigation measures continuing for six months until we get a vaccine. What are we? looking out from an economic perspective and from an equity markets Is that really, what is the worst he's scenario playing out here. What would that look like maybe turned to yawn. First on that,

automatically mean that there is no rebound scan. You keep significant parts of the economy, shutdown and in many places, since I would assume that this would apply. large parts of the global economy. You would you know, I don't know if you would get additional negative, probably get some additional negative because If those last for a long time, then the ability of the policy maker of two or reduce second round effects becomes weaker, because resources get get scarcer he saw you'd have to worry about. Significant negative multiplier effect on top of the shot down, so it wouldn't just be the shot down sector that would be don't shut down, but also other factor of Wade than now kind of adults

of more keynesian demand obstruction on and on top of employee I would be it would be quite a negative, scenario, obviously do not necessarily it wouldn't necessarily manifests itself in rates of contraction that are quite a high as what were likely to see in the very short term, really more that you gotta be contraction up front, and then you may be yet additional, in all modesty, contraction on on top of it and beyond. That would do that that might not in all bad if you'd just focus on the on the requests show, but it actually be a really very severe outcome, very, very negative outcome, David coffin. How would he be doing market at that Well, I think, there's a couple of ways to think about that I'm not believe me just by the idea of,

a risk would be the council, like the spanish flu, a second round you could ever whether the aid is in the middle. of the year, and perhaps the things are looking better there and then you could ever read and as the second round, if you well in the far which be maybe not our work. Ass did not not known assumption we're we're making but would be a big negative zodiac with tackling market would not have a rebound that weren't dissipating be one again to qualify my response to that. Being epidemiologists. There is the idea of a herd of unity. At some point I everybody will have gotten it though without will out, but might have done. disease and therefore you people can go back to there was a meeting on why behaviour and whether testing is more dramatic in ITALY those are some marrables. It then

really your expertise to Canada, but when I couldn't perspective, if we think about wait, what the earnest prospects are. We are expecting a earnings to decline this year by thirty three percent, well. Due to a year ago, I, and then we rebound dramatically too by almost fifty five percent to one hundred and seventy dollars of one over sixty five down. Last year, one hundred ten dollars a year and then one hundred seventy dollars for next year's. Clearly it if he be virus, the dragon growth in the country the coming year? I did you and twenty. Why would have far less earnings and yet for the market value were market levels would be with, which would be much less that is the assumption were making. It is that there is a summit, some improvement, I just heard, I emphasise that in writing. It It would be an extremely negative outcome,

and while we're not epidemiologists, though it does seem that that is quite an extreme scenario, to have the same kinds of shutdowns lasting for such a long period of time. So that certainly wouldn't be. base line in all, despite the fact that we recognise there are in autumn some clear downside risks to the idea that over a few months will get our arms around us. We will we do recognise this, but the somewhat extreme alternative. In my view, the question like per miracle. What all this means for the path of? U S: inflation! I, it's a tricky wine to get at hard enough to size, this size that the hit to supply and the size of they had to demand. But ultimately the impact on inflation should depend a bit on the duration. Of those two things hunting in the near term, where very I paid a heavy price declines on things like hotel stays in airlines, which were already thing. We ve compiled a tracker of high frequency price data, which we

created our update of high frequency economic indicators every Monday and Wednesday, and I think you know by the time you get the March inflation data you'll, probably some early signs of that down? The road are best guess is that this proves to be disinflation area. We base that assumption on what we have. served in other countries that have had similar, larger shutdowns, but before the EU ashes had them It is very hard to know, and I think it comes back in part to that issue. I raised earlier of to what extent, for example, workers are not willing to go to manufacturing jobs or other jobs, they require them to be around other people in a way that might lead to shortages, have goods as well as well as they had the obvious had to demand, show probably deflationary by tab, more com. Created than your usual demand driven recession. I just add one other thing to add which, as you know, this To some degree

he's going to illustrate a difficulty in. Really measuring inflation. I mean something if regular services no longer exists. You can't you They are everything showed all the elder sit on. Restaurant meals are shut down Then that's going to show openly in the inflation numbers, but in something that's almost like a price of infinity for four restaurant meals, even if you really wanted to pay more right eggs to advocate on restaurant meal? You wouldn't be able to do it, but of course that forgot, the sort of thing that you can't incorporate an official inflation number that includes this episode of exchange. The Goldman Sachs thanks for listening and if you enjoy the show, we hope you subscribe and Apple podcast and leave a rating or a comment and too in far weekly market update Friday morning. We're leaders across the firm provide a quick take on markets driving the latest volatility. This podcast was recorded on Monday March, twenty third, twenty twenty.

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