We're contrary in here, so I think were it not Let that be jobs never found an old welcome to the five hundred and thirty eight politics podcast. My name is Jody Avirgan on today show will talk about the new guidelines for media, about how to report on poles have a hunch. This team will have some things to say about that. The intersection of media and Cole there's also special election in Arizona tomorrow. Maybe some more tea leaves to read it out. This falls mid terms and will ask was quickly becoming a fever. Question can Texas go Blue Henry S, love engaging but let me I get it. I got that also maybe use it as a chance to talk about some larger demographic trends which do interest us here to do all those things and perhaps more editor in chief mate, silver, hello, NATO, hello, Jody who very soon

this morning, Clem alone, all three view. That was great. I, like that common, clear, Malone, hello adjusting writer and politics editor microphone. Things are already awkward. Well, look before we get to you, I think some of our lessons may have heard the news because in the news us with the five thirty is switching homes were going from yes to a b c, mere MIKE anything, you want to say about that move. We really excited. I think it's great news. Fur listeners of this pike is Means keep investing in reinvesting in our political coverage. Obviously, it's gonna be very cool, as we approach the mid term to be in a newsroom that does of politics and on election night and so forth, and you know, maybe, if you special guests from the ABC world on our air from time to time and vice versa. So it's all looking good. We are super excited we're staying within the Disney families are not this time. At a time. Analysis how's that, while the main where the main question we got from staff during this uncertainty was not about their jobs are about is, should act. Should I go to dinner

world now so making a move from one part of this inquiry into another than from Europe of listeners. Not much is to change or still gonna get this progress in the same feed in same show same format by me, we will, as mate said, take advantage of our new colleagues and resources, any b c, and hopefully the show or reflect that before now keep listening and keep leaving those five star reviews he'll be set, keep leaving us. I read it. Ok, Let's move only like to say that it is that, like allowed to say that responses, like a yelp when a restaurant We also know that would be awkward. I always keep track and formulate when we start the pockets of how long it takes us to lose Clare. Today. We regularly made it through the euro, but let's talk about actual parties. So as listeners you problem are. We like asked this question: produce appalling or bodies appalling and, as it happens, the AP seems to be trying to find

is to make sure that there are more good uses appalling going forward. So last week the AP published updated guidelines for how reporter should cover poles this is in a new chapter of the APC now book, which is sort of like the Bible for a lot of newsrooms. It tells you lots of different things like with a difference between principle in principle or how to use the Oxford, comma or more big, think stuff like how to use poles in your reporting and add appropriate conduct is a peace, Oxford, comma paths. We dont use the extra calmer and I am saddened by a lot We do that because of a peer, because we made an it's our sire. I think it's our stock. I saw an example today where the Oxford come, creating confusion. Referring to Stormy Daniels right and this picture that she drew of the person who allegedly threatened her right. Like somebody, it said I haven't for an email from memory, but a certain said. You know the picture looks like her former. A friend and Comma Tom, Brady Comma as well

their celebrities, and so that Oxford comment made. It seem, she used to date, Tom Brady, which she did not say. When in doubt leave it my answer, I let my roof resolution, but that's just a poor editing should have switched order and continue to use the act for common. The Ap Star guidelines and offered com is don't use the comment if it's not needed to make meaning clear. So you like track when we lose Clare, I'm currently tracking, when we lose a news in the control room, saying get rid of him, a Congress that Islamic suppose we having so let's get to that in the eighties chapter about using pulling right at the top. There is a pretty clear directive about how prominently you should use pull. So this is what they write. An unlikely erections polo results that seek to preview. The outcome of an election must never be the he'd headline or single subject of any story. So late, I'm cares what you mean that and whether you feel like to her way. Is it the media wrongly do treat appall as though it headline or single subject as they put it. I like these guys

in general, as you listeners will see, there's a ton of good advice in there. This part, like I don't know where you are a little bit right, because what I hear it is like when outlets are excited about this poll result and then put a bunch of crap like you know, spotlight on the heart beat of American, the middle or rather traffic. It seem like yours, APOLLO results, Clinton's up for and let's Goodwood backstop doktor voters kind of undermining but look, I think it's fine, have stories that describe the horse race and are only about the horse race. There's a demand for it. Obviously, I do think that, like a single Israeli is rarely news at five. Thirty eight you'll notice that we very rarely right at the result. They single horse race, Paul they peace, the mere existence of a pole, is not enough to make it here mean the party and obviously we we are intimately where we kind of give people weekly or daily update. The campaign when you get toward the end of an election campaign right, you know, but up

From that I mean you should kind to write about a pull when its news when something gesture is unexpected, but now I mean I think this is kind of right and spirit, but like You know there's a little bit of holier than thou in this statement, which sort of where'd you get that too. If you know the New York Times that we say or pull results are not for making prediction slept. Well, the money be likely voter model for that's like actually predictive but yeah by, like the rest, I'm not going to I'm not going to be bastion if there's a ton of good advice in there, but they do. You know what I thought of when I was reading the century. As you know, MIKE pants won't have dinner alone with with women inside he doesn't want to be the right one article with one. That's that's! That is how the eight p treats Paul I gotta go there without its, like the it's like their treating pause, as this like some like dont get seduce me,

The poles and there really dangerous and in its like, ok, like sure, be careful, but I almost wanna be like hey. Reporters treat a paw if you, if you have a pulled eight hundred people treat that pause. If it's an interview with eight hundred people that what it is like, it's not more complicated than that, and I think the entry in tone buys in to a little bit this idea that, like the poles, are dislike dangerous yeah, I think there's like seductress. I think there is like this tenancy right now in politics. News particularly to overcome, lacked a little bit and that's I think, from where we all sit when it comes to poles. That's a good thing that we want it to be more integrated, like a greater understanding of poles, is a good thing for tv. Importers to no one will know and use and hard news. Reporters not judge assertive, treat them as like up here's, he's a cool press release me weirdly rippling result. Yet we should write about it. The correction of correction dynamics are in

saying, because we felt like, I think, a twin sixteen there were some lessons that were over learned and that people, when poles did show a trend towards prompt, in particular people, a kind of dismissed those poles as an outlier right and then say you know and then kind of cherry pick, which average or probability forecast they were using, and so so there diamond later on here, where they say it's fine report averages, but sometimes it's better to report on the components of the average which I agree, because an average where the Democrats up four points in every pause. A three to seven point lead is different. And four points. Cuz one poll shows their credit. Twelve it shows republican up five or whenever where we kind of almost have an example of that in this Arizona, special action where you have like two poles, tie and then one showing the republican way ahead and that's a four point lead for the programme on average for the two different circumstanced than when all the polls show the same thing, but going back to school the production of a one pole and unworthy be writing up a single polar

a headline, I'm flattered a single woman metaphor, its continuing part was, I never put it under its Cheshire. That's put that their climate sex and make a political. Scientists who we tend to like Brendan my hands at his name from from garment. He resigned the shell for Indonesia in response to this line from the ape he pointed out that there are some Is that show that the press ten overemphasize minor shifts and also tends to overemphasize surprising results. Oh I'm, the strangeness of how real is this as a phenomenon that when there is one Paul, it's has one titillating thing: is anywhere without thinking of declare it getting you my head of beta when there's one pull. This has one sort of provocative thing. The press does tend to jump,

and maybe we should start to access it. Texas O got fired, not yet that it's a problem. The media, cherry picks ports that are new studies. Each other's polls that show a closer race pause that show a surprising results. And that presents a skewed version of reactor. That's what the daylight that here again, I feel like this is more like it. Twenty twelve problem, Nothing was really happening in that Obama round and raise four months at a time, and so you cherry pick poles in again I really do think like in twenty sixteen that over corrected and that were refusing to look at results, because there are quite a few Paul's. It often had good results for Trump and there is kind of like it.

Unwillingness to take those results seriously. Twenty sixth story is a little met like it, the twenty percent twenty. Sixteen was just that it requires like two levels of new ox to understand what is happening. You had a look at the pause, then you had a look at the polls in the electoral college state and it was like a little bit complicated. Look, I'm I'm summit sympathetic to people who blame the pause in twenty. Sixteen, because Clinton was up in national pause by a bit more than a bomb was up in national law. And so, if that's as deep as your going, then you'd be like well, which is a surprise which is a large number of people, and I actually think it gets to the fact that we, the very complicated way of telling percentage of votes, and so news organisations really don't feel like going into the intricacies of the electoral college, and they just use the shorthand of popular popular vote, which we, actually all get out of the habit of doing because it's the electoral college and that people should understand it by partly went to push back in an hour

we're still relocating twenty seen. People like us, well you're having your morning jogger whenever we are still talking about the dim god- and I didn't ya, tell us back would you learn it all rather keep it out and you can make there was discussion around the electoral college in twenty sixteen and it wasn't very rigorous because people were just kind of going by your hand of twenty twelve whereof Ahmed, our performance, states someone actually looking at the data, so I just want to get here I emphasise that I think very often like twenty six thing, it's me characterized as all of the data was we offer. We think people had very strong priors about Clinton, being in thought, Trump wasn't serious candy and therefore ambiguous data You stated that was mostly good for Clinton, but not as good as people thought got interpret it as being. This proves Britain is gonna win! Ok, let's let get into some of these more concrete, a recommendation. A p, and then we can maybe look back to see whether it will in some of the way we talk about upcoming elections.

The ape. He says when evaluating loophole that you should look at it I was just calling a pink eye last for four things to be suitable for publication of pole must and I'll just quickly run to the one disclose the questions salt in the methods to come from a source found a stake in the results: three scientific, survey, a random sample of the population and for report. The results in a timely manner. Nike the list. Is that anything missing from at least two great last time. Think of missing now, That's it. I mean what you could add other questions, but like that's it that's a really good list so, first of all, they are saying they are casting aid on non probability sampling. This is a really Dickie Pakistan, so well sign of Mr Marinos, which every member population has no probability of inclusion that would exe poles such as you Gov, but Naomi, Remsen second and geared towards those pulsing us luxury. I think the most eminent disclose

important. There are important you know the not having a stake in the outcome, I'm always amazed at there's a certain type. Political reporter who really loves when they kind of get the internal poles uniting exciting when I hear the internal poles, unlike that, sport is just both well first well, there's no related fi it right, but like that information, is not useful. Most of the time, if you have public course you dont always right, but, like those poles have what we calculate Likud free, for a six point, biased where there can exercise on average. You know, sometimes I just completely made up thin air and put a rumour out there. It's not very transparent, so reporters really really really pay attention the AP here and be very sparing in your use of internal poles, should use them. When you think when you have reason to think there's something there are missing or incomplete data in the in the public post on. Or knowing the lean of particular pollsters. I think sometimes reporters

as along with might not know this poster leaned your mother can have this poster leads Democrat like these are all just like a purely scientific institute. You know no, you have Partisan Lee, thereby says, and what and the another piece of advice that is really good, that the appeal for us is to compare results within upholsterer said to compare a Quinnapin resulting earlier, Quinnapin Paul, but I really like that the eight p put that the pull should disclosed a question to ask the result and the methods first. That gets you so far. If you just look at a pull release, you know they will say they release a pdf. Does it look professional does tell you how they did the poor. Do they show you. The question say asked just doing that is like half the battle. I feel like because you'd be amazed at how many shady pollsters have you no Microsoft word press releases.

Riddled with spelling errors a minute it already made clear. This is the AP telling reporters how to judge a pull that they get that such a right up. What about next step in the equation, how much should reporters include some of this stuff? Was there as they as they write? Should reporters be telling their audience up much more about the questions asked the results in the methods upholsterer in contexts talk about the survey sample so so later on this path cast we're gonna, be talking about the Texas race and in particular, can it be act pole about the beta work, TED Crews, race, and there is Adele morning news, article about that pulled by your rapporteur, Katy Leslie, who I thought it actually very good job of talking about the elements of the poor universe is appalled, that has caused a lot of news, wondering what we're talking about it, because it shows surprisingly close race between the Democratic Republic and in Texas, which is unusual, and

Lastly, in her peace talks to pulling experts asks about independence. Lena certain wanes pole, and some experts casts doubt about whether or not Texas independence actually lean this way, and I thought a very good job of explaining. Actually, the women's that go into these pulling projects and like I said earlier that decisions it's an interview with eight hundred people, whatever I'm an interview with eight hundred people within, say the state of Texas or the state of California. What are the peculiarities of that state? What an historic of the other said, the that election. All that contact is important to people and the idea of if you're, too and send to erase yell talk about how this race was doing in this pole six months ago, as it lets compare the results within the poles? I think that stuff is good for reporters. It can be if it's a paragraph in a greater story about the race. That's great in oak gives people sort of state of play. I think you know not. Everyone has the right pulling pieces like we're in

that would make the world a dull place if everyone was just radio the exact same meddling stories on, but I think that it is import, reporters include these particular at ease and put up Graph and your story- that's about this- you know it's not that it's not your, not graph, but it's something at the context. For the one paragraph all it doesn't take that much as restart Europe made. I'm curious. You know we don't. They like these guidelines, do you have a one piece of it I see that you tend to either If two new writers urges that you try and keep in mind in terms of how to write about poles. So it's good to talk about the errors eccentricities uncertainty surrounding polling that very important I hope if no one went out lesson into an sixteen and it helps you never gonna, learn that I think it's also. Orton, no, not to substitute your kind of subjective, hot. Take. In those places where pulling is uncertain right, you know very some people think well, the polling is all crimes,

I've so therefore, therefore abreks it, for example, which we use a lot in this programme, young people that well appalling as low replace these online polls show. Leave winning ample shall remain winning, there's a big spread, but we are a british or sensible people and therefore it's gonna be remain right. It was kind of the conventional wisdom in London at the first part. Fine right, like British, pulling, is crap frankly and the poles all over the place. But the response to that is to say we are you don't know. What's gonna happen, it's probably in the ballpark of fifty fifty and to say we're, you know, subject art conventional wisdom to plug in for the place that Poland can't go at nights over five. Thirty, eight on twitter, british people, I got some written I'm sorry, british pulling his crap get off predicted. Are tweeting at Nate Roulettes There may well do without a link layer to these AP guidelines and people can t you gotta pay if you have to pay for them, but they ve written up an accident, and I certainly when I try- and here they are coming out of this- was the reply-

Just play you ve blown up your spot brow a background. Thirty two wikileaks: I could die a happy person readily the eighty pulling ok, let's leave it there look out for that leak coming soon objects. About this week, special election in the Arizona, eighth congressional district. But first let me tell you that this week's podcast is brought. You buy Kronos look into any great business, whether the manufacturer, hotel store a school or a hospital looking each and every one of them, and you will find the same thing greet people Kronos, believes that group businesses, are powered by great people and with Kronos Workforce solutions. You'll find them, engage them and keep them learn more at kroner, dot com, that's k, R, o n, O S, dot, com, Kronos, workforce innovation that works this week.

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just thirty six sorbet roses for only thirty six dollars. It's an amazing four, but it expires this Friday, so jump on it go to wanting flowers pick your deliver and they will handle the rest to take advantage. Go to a hundred flowers, dot com, click, the radio icon and enter the code. Politics, that's one. Eight hundred flowers, dot com, the code is politics, hurry the offer ends Friday. We're back. Tuesday is election day in Arizona, eighth, congressional district, the district that includes many, the suburbs North and West, a Phoenix Republican, Debbie, Moscow and Democrat Hurrah to bananas are competing in a special action to replace former republican congressmen Trent francs. He resigned in December after reportedly offering one of his staffers five million dollars to carry his child. Those we're just words. I said, of course, this one race doesn't control, If it still about its irrational scandals, justly say those words is part that you have to say this collection of words, reportedly,

in one of his staffers five million dollars to carry his child. That's your favorite scandal could definitely it is so twenty eighteen in so many ways and dislike. It's amazing them! Look this intellectual coming up tomorrow, Tuesday, it's not gonna type it was the house, but we are interested in what it says about the potter environment, and I will point out heavy Google counter that we share, I think, are contributing Nathaniel wreckage, printing attributes cod. I put it to you but who cannot calendar of obscure elections, and this one is voted on it, so maybe I'd impotent together. That is anyway, I didn't think Pentagon, it's very useful anyway. That's why we're talking about it's on my counter. It's happening tomorrow, for starters. What do we need to know about this district and we often talk about a partisan lean in in a given district? What do we know about the Arizona? Eighth Super Republican, leaning district? It's five, thirty. Eight!

It is twenty five percentage point more republican than the country so that more republican leaning by by a few percentage points and Pennsylvania. Eighteen, where the Democrat want a few months ago. So very republic, leaning, mostly suburban, a little rural, mostly why scheme? the elderly, conservative republican tat sort of like a tip oh Arizona, Arizona has a lot of empty space empty space or rural areas, but its population Energy are mostly around Phoenix and the Arizona hasn't of really interesting sort of western republican electorate. Think as we although it is a mecca, fur retirees also in general, it has heard of this libertarian bent and so a lot of its politics, especially the Republicans I mean a lot more

our conservative. I guess think buried, Goldwater, etc, etc. For all that, but yeah, it's certainly kind of a typical Arizona, congressional district of the Phoenix area You remember, trumpet really well in Arizona Republican primary right. He did less well in the in the general, but this is an area where Trump underperformed Mitt Romney. You know we ve been trying to find us out patterns in the special election results so far, and I think one thing we ve seen as Democrats are over performing everywhere one but are over performing more in areas where Trump over performed and twenty sixteen. Yet it's not exactly like the pen, being a special actions because Pennsylvania had a more recent history to of of having voted democratic. This particular You have Arizona, has figures, like say, sheriff jar Pio, where they kind of were prime for Trump.

In some ways they were more used to that kind of politician, and so it's a bit of a different political landscape, and I think it's always important to remember that all politics is local. Especially in these special elections, obviously where we have an eye out for the national environment, but it is important to look at the local politics and the history of of races in the area, but this is a district of history. Percent non white, many Latinos to expect that to be After all, why are we saying this is well, I think well in thirty percent of the poor. Relocation, maybe latino, but of the voting popularly known out between people not being registered between there has been a community gurney young, and so some people are not of age, and I mean we're not citizens, its original house back to the that twenty sixteen election, where the Clinton campaign had this. This idea that they recognise turn on a blue with a wave of young latina voters voting against Trump, and that didn't happen, and Some of those are Arizona, was a state where they made a real, too large

and of gains right look. This is a district where in some number of years, as it becomes more. Never it's like its basic like a lot of old white people playing golf district traditionally and like a lot of areas. Its becoming more diverse, espouse, they with latino voters, but yeah thirty percent cent latina population does not like the voting population, and so you know it will be put it. Let us beware: of the curve for Democrat to win in this district, and it's not that a place? A Democrat would have to win to carry Arizona it as a state in twenty eighteen or twenty twenty. So MIKE, What do the polls show at this moment for the trace and United Name mentioned

where they ve been a little bit all over the place where a couple poles have come out, showing a very close raise a basically tied race, and then we got one Paul achieved. We have one more today their couples. Now that show less go, the Republican up you know mid to high single digits. On average. You know the Republican is up three four five percentage points which, if that's the margin that would represent a huge democratic over performance relative to the District Party Celine but if that were, the desert has just republican enough that even even a huge over performance may not be so democratic level were performed by about nineteen, so this might be in and with that, but the Republican may still when, because it's gotta twenty five point exactly so, even if even if Democrats beat their average rover performance by couple point they, their amateurs, ash raising mate was a trap,

in Pennsylvania, race, work, Democrat Conall am one at that moment. Democrats had an eight point, five p m. Lead in the generic ballot that lead, narrowed a little bit to six point. Five is that's a factor in this race. That's something just in general to keep our. I am. I mean known early. I mean, if anything, the specific results, say maybe generic ballot trend because it has gotten tighter but democratic, forming like as well. Are you know to look better and these special election so far, and so I guess would say if can one here by fifteen points or something right, then that would be the circumstances no k result, although even that would represent a tat point. Yeah swing right, and so it's like I don't know you know I might eat anything There is by the way, a lot of as five three contributor Nathaniel wreckage put enough, there is a lot of early voting in this district. Usually we think that pundits and reporters and ran people on Twitter like make way too much of the early moaning data, but there's a big

Do we know which party people belong to their been farmer? Republican ballots returned the democratic battle that would seem to bode well for republic. And so you know I don't know, maybe frankly like if the average wage seventeen point so far than maybe go winning by eight I mean that might not be a terrible guess, honestly, ceramics not like off go for, let's just tannin plague of Burundi Crispin alright, let's leave it there. We will closely watching this race in writing up the results once we have them. Next, let's talk about the Texas Senate race last week, the first major, The core of the Texas Andrei showed Republican Centre, TED crews, leading democratic congressmen, better work by only three points. Forty seven to forty four canopy AK labelled the race to close to call Despite that conversation we just had about the AP telling us not override to Singapore? Let's talk about taxes and talk about maybe the larger things going on here, the idea

excess going blue has kind of been running joke. Maybe a little miss podcast me just in larger sense, but each. Peco there are eager Democrats and political reporters looking for that narrative, so get into that race and then there's also been a lot of interesting reporting, and some studies lately about just demographic trends in general and Texas may be an interesting place to broaden the conversation. Talk about the demographics and Texas somewhat tells us. Let's start with that way. Mate initial reactions to that clearly at Paul forty, seven, forty four crews over or work as soon as possible. To me, I don't get the push back against this pole and also very push him back Lotta people, people, people, people, I don't wanna sources- are saying like made a strong amateurs. Ears were an article. This is where I add a comment here. Think links question mark. Uncle John called NIT picking MIKE

savage refers to when, when there's a little boy back a straight face cake if they ve got set, which are first, when you're kind of cherry picking arguments on the internet as a straw, man to either argued astronomers order, kind of on a moderate sent him to make the other side the Patsy here's. What liberalising here's at pulling people think right. It seems there is a lot of taking, a part of the sample composition of this pole and what independence thought and law right. Like surfers politics, I was the only party that I thought that article by Kitty Leslie. I also thought that was really good, but the one part I didn't like puts the picking a part of the same. Let me first of all kinds are ridiculously early to be picking on me. I think in the p guidelines or should just piercing that, like all poles, are sort of suspect, and so we re only real question. I think if this is gonna be Ex first Paul on a Texas race, I mean fairness, it is it it's just now worth it: it's not worth it, but that's why you're, because people go down rabbit holes in mind letting priors come

We making an empirical statement that empirically going down the rabbit hold, trying to pick a part. The demographics in Nepal, wines are being wasted I understand there are like in theory, is completely valid and important right, but Leyden for some people, they're doing, I mean people when they didn't like the party identification. Demographic winter are usually, I think wrong about trying to make too much of that, because its outcome and not like an inherent part of who you are, but, like I just think like, like one Paul it's early, but the thing to me, as, like you have a somewhat unpopular incumbent in TED crews. You have a well fun democratic opponent in better Orourke, you have to say it away yet here through November, but look if, if Democrats can win Conner M C. Can wineries in Alabama some, obviously some special circumstances there, and here we have an account, that's not an open seat race, but the notion that, like O'Rourke workers within a few

I found lose, seems like surely plausible. What I found Sir most interesting of just the coverage of the races is the fact that he didn't. Work didn't do stunningly. Well, in the democratic primary, what was it in March, you, like you, didn't, get a huge presented to the vote and, while p, who listen to this podcast might know who bid or work is. I think he has a name recognition problem in Texas versus TED crews, who, as we all know, There are more knows who tankers is, although I do think TED crews has a little bit of like Summer Powell, and they're probably still angry at him about the way he reacted to trumpet, so that could in some ways, work against them and perhaps, as what accounts for some of his fundraising shortfalls, but what I thought was interesting and not quite as paid attention to is the under performance of our work in the primary and the fact that does face a little bit more of a step up as far as getting people stay.

I do know who he is and to know what he is about. You have the one pull found. Fifty three percent of people dont know who are work is which praise most people here. The thing is, I Galen, put washing puss article about this race shared with us. First read: basic rights, as there are three big things our works way. There was the buzz there was the fund raising and there are the polls. That is like the opposite of how you should be looking at this raised it with Nay said earlier. Why is it totally believable that this race would be competitive?

tromp is super unpopular and democratic gonna do really well this year and Texas was read in twenty sixteen, but it wasn't overwhelmingly read so I think I think Nate Point clear about going into a pull sample was one you shouldn't be putting that much emphasis on one poor result anyway, so kind it just not worth it did to dig in that. Much and too isn't there a circular liberty to it. I think that the people in Texas reaction to this poor people, political writers and Texas. There's a bit of history around right. There's this crying wolf, there's crying Wolf about turning Texas Blue that I think, Texas, political reporters Texans, many of whom we know perhaps even in our own office. I have might say I have a Megan Megan statement, the red later. They will say that this has been. This is something that, in our people have talked about for a long. I am, I think you know if you're interested readers MIKE Mike

Friend Abbe report? Back and twenty thirteen wrote an interesting piece about former Obama painters who had this whole, you know swing, blue thing. So that's it's not imminent. You know looking at it from a strategic point of view and demographics is interesting, but I think that there is, hang in there with taxes, politicos, reacted to this pole, because that kind of want to keep people. It's it's a historic thing. Here's your it's a little bit of a joke. Tell it it's a job at sea. We we're contrary in here, so I think were were one you know not said yesterday I found an old it used to be people talk about taxes, turn Blue and the way to show that you were like in on that. You had some sort of political insight with said. There's no way, and I think that has cemented itself too much.

I will now we're in the future. Also now the contrary, in view is actually is, maybe reasoning we maybe this is possible. We or its border controls were contrary to the confederate. I'm a moment, I'm SAM's. What I'm saying is I conventional. I think that there is historical context for people freaking out about this Paul in Texas, and I think that we should take that into account and fine like no can do his thing, but it's also that this exists in a particular contacts within the Tec. This landscape looked brought in this a little bit too. When people talk about taxes, Goin Blue Clare mentioned some of the demographics that often, let's couched in those terms, so What are the demographics of taxes and how much are they a driving force behind conversation about whether it will go blue, this fall and just in general harbours Macao why Mademoiselle American Stake bad apples to demographically taxes looks like it should be: a blue state. If you just look at the kind of population.

Graphics right, we're. Obviously each has spent a population traditionally a more conservative hispanic population than other parts of the country and has spent up. Listen, we're like it's quite integrated into the community, so such not quite as much White brown divide, as you might have in other places it, but in the big cities one of Asian, Houston, democratically, diverse Houston's, basically like queen depth, and you have our largest city in again in Dallas, pretty big black population. Furthermore, that white people in Texas reasonably well educated, and you have obviously a burgeoning nurse that word out loud, you didn't. We noted burgeoning tech sector there. A lot of kind of higher education, employment, tech sector sectors, actors access to research. Burgeoning Texas, was closer than Iowa in twenty sixteen, and for me, it's kind of like these things are, are tied

you have together, because I was always a state. We look at the demographics and say how the state, purple or blue and went for Obama twice when you look at it a bunch of like all white people, who are somewhat religious. In fact, how, as a state actually like like purple and if then Ellison. It isn't purple anymore. I was been pretty red recently rights of the flip side. It's almost like you know something a certain way until it isn't any more. Unlike obviously, taxes is not particularly fond of of Trump who barely even got. You know when you get fifty two point, four the vote there barely guiding and fifty percent of the vote. To me It reminds me of like the blue wall argument. You know what I mean where like seeing other taxes is longer history, and there is one thing I think that bears mentioned Imagine how like theirs is going three of like poles exact. Reading the Democrats standing in Texas one. Doesn't it careful about poles of adults in Texas.

There is a large unregistered population that is quite has spent, and quite democratic so taxes estate, where poles of adults versus register, voters, you'll see a big shift potentially with that said that let us things like opportunities for Democrats to register more vote, summing up like this. You know if it's true that Democrats are in a struggle in the upper Midwest, then they kind like need, taxes to be competitive, or else optional lose every election of a presidential election from here to the end of eternity. You know there comes a point at which, like I'm they well, maybe they will but there comes a point which texts actually has to kind of become a part of democratic equation where they have to like revive themselves in the Midwest, otherwise it just there too few place where they can win and left enough electoral votes does it, I'm. Let me let me read some Megan Ashford grooms are our copy chief and special projects editor. She basically runs the news. She lived in Texas for eight years and has very strong opinions about Texas politics of millions. Opinions

strive after so here our statement, I have a hard time not being sceptical of the frequently resurrected coastal media narrative that were in for a big change in Texas Voting Harry from the show did an article about that kind of before he left, and it's a good reminder that the electorate in Texas is way more republican, leaning than the state's population at large. Also- and this is totally my hot take- I think the media types have gotten fired up about how badly Trump did in Texas in twenty sixteen relatively of course, but that could be a misinterpretation of the data. I think it's possible that Texans, who are very defensive and protective of their people, are upset at how Trump treated TED Cruz in the republican primary, but I think that affect punishing trump for that particular will wear off, eventually not sure what that means for the mid term. That's a good hot taketh in there. I would ask you to write that up for aviation terminate clearly reactionary. I think we should. Let me

have that last so then you know in a larger demographic sense mica. How much does. Access change. Demographics reflect the countries as a whole You know. Is it one of these places at me, I can't tell that we should look at Texas as its own unique, special brew or a place. That is the has larger lessons theirs. Larger lessons that there are more pronounced in Texas. I think so. Texas has a bit growing non white non hispanic white burgeoning fortunate. Non white population, its been areas are growing faster than its Royer as rural some errors, even leasing popular

Can you know David Pilar had a really great piece about this. Any kind of pointed out. Yeah demographics are part of this story here. But if you look at the election results in Texas, a lot of what you see a sort of reactions to that particular rates rights idea might Megan was alluding to that with the trumps. I also think the point that that Latinos in Texas or just writ large in America, maybe More conservative, leaning than people might think a minority population would be based on liked distort trends in America. That's an important point: If you look back, you know you can see. You know a bizarre a world where Republicans in twenty eighteen did a whole, lot better with Latinos, not just in tax. But naturally I mean, if, if you will recall that was a big part of George W Bush is good. Toil campaign and then presidential campaign you know, compare. Conservatism was also about winning over those voters who. However, it was, I think, Grove called Latinos natural

I because of you there's, a is typically a strong catholic background and then in the? U S, s often rolled into Latinos becoming more evangelical, and of course, as we all know, that desert those specially evangelical side of things, those can be a lot of republican, leaning constituencies. And you know we have the twenty twelve post mortem for the Republican Party, where they said we need to make more appeals to Latinos. So I do you think, There is something to this idea that Latina are you know, not necessarily republican right now, but there necessarily as liberal leaning as we might think they would be or expect them to be even in trumps. America rank the year and that the other important part of this is that this conversation round Texas has always been about on the scale decades right, it's like well by this, so presidential election it'll turn blue any time yard zooming out that far, you can't make any

assumptions I mean you can make a few, but you should be making very few assumptions about what party coalitions will look like declares point hispanic voters, my trend republican over the next ten years, who knows re, college, educated voters right now, trending democratic witches they helped Democrats in in Texas, but that could and has now been replaced at various, the very reason it is not so it sort of like Texas, avenge Doc. I'd I'd be skeptical, somewhat sceptical of Texas turning Blue until it happens, it just seems like a safe, a safe, bad ideas and pragmatic way ahead. One other thing we haven't talked about- which I think was in the boiler pieces where heap he points out. The Texas is, is more urban than most of the country, which I think is an important point to remember with taxes because reputation early as a joke lay at the segment. A hundred percent cowboy wide, open spaces, shadow Dixie checks, but like it's not it has a huge Houston, is a huge

Population centre, like I was more worth like this- is you know, Austin It's no longer weird, but this is a growing, but we know if there's there are huge population centres here, sprawling suburbs. It's it's. You know which is very american right, but it isn't it the that that demographic trend of urban is favourable to Democrats, he asked is a little bit like this. Is such a time is Friedman, like Hong Kong or something we feel like every time you go back. There's like five new buildings that have been constructed on the skyline, I'm in Texas is growing very fast and also has a lot of migration from other parts of the country, so only about half of Texas, adult population. Twenty five enough was actually born in taxes, which is not that try, but is you know, but is more like these other western states Reverend moves there and the population is I end by both domestic International migrants texts is becoming that where people are moving for the part of the country would love to know

If the people are moving to Texas, where they like, as they often are working in high tech, professional sectors, but do they may be have more conservative, policy views or I dont know right, but Texas kind of eventually, but we're gonna become like that the kind of some average of every other part of the kind the internet, would kind of in the long run- and I agree with the cabinets about along run yeah, but in the lumberman push it to be more purple, I wanted it will more thoroughly. About what they would just wishes, your time utterly about how we have to keep in mind that these demographics are shifting about a week, This group think tanks released by partisan report looking at american demographics and what they mean for republican and democratic coalitions. It's called the sea. Of Change America's outdoor future and It they say you know using the twenty twelve coalition is a baseline accounting for demographic change. Republicans will win Texas by seven and twenty thirty six. They say and using twenty sixteen as a baseline republicans will win Texas by two and twenty thirty. Six is

are you saying it's not even worth engaging with that kind of comparison? Whilst that long of a timeline look and twenty thirty six right, who knows what life will be like, what they have, or about all that stuff. You just hate walking. I die we're about you, you're the walking a robot dogs at your. I thought why that was my vision of the future by us. Are the eligible These were about the robot. So that's that's what we can't enter that will drive Democrats, as will the row lost all turn out in twenty thirty six, that's the question. Well, I am glad that the that this coalition of bipartisan think tanks got the thoughtful response to their study that they were look, twenty thirty six, look the not making front in the study to get something. It's interesting and it shows what we ve known, which is Texas but clear, set becoming more urban, more diverse that still true. That would be my take away how it will affect politics and twenty thirty. Sir

I think I have no idea. How did William is unclear, but you have the comfort of you: hurt animatronic doc. What little because it will be more, but will we be most surprised by in twenty thirty cents? I hate this is different question because it does not seem you found it. If I can predict, I wouldn't be surprised by it. I think more robot dogs, but ok, That's a lie that action, no robot cats for technology too far, that's a real, yet ever greater peace out let's leave their mates over thinking. As always, thank you for giving me the opportunity to contribute to the pact Claire Malone, against any make a call, thanks to everyone for listening. My name is Jody, have again Galen jerk as producer and Tony Chow is in the control room getting

my email has podcast five three hundred com. You can also treated us with any questions comments about the show if you are family, shall leave us reading a review or the in the apple podcast reverie get a pot of gas, or just tell someone about the show, thanks, Felicity we'll see you soon.