I bet you can violate beautiful farm houses with what is that's her somebody's like the shower. They went someone's peering, no doubt I was a Lexie. That's a Lexie in the kitchen trying to wash off her hands she's trying to get Greg's food ready. He doesn't eat until late. Greg Greg is well he's had multiple accidents this morning, so you know worth mentioning that Greg is a Yes, hello and welcome to the five prettier politics podcast, I'm Galen, is the republic intent big enough to include both representative Liz Cheney and Madison, or might both then be on the outs come this fall. Cheney is sing one of the toughest primaries in the country. After voting to impeach President Trump

January sixth attack on the capital and serving on the House Committee to investigate the attack. She has a thoroughly conservative record but breaks with the party when it comes to US supporting Trump's, anti democratic tendencies. on the other hand, is all in on trumps vision for the Republican Party and then some last week after cloth or suggested his car. In Washington, post orgies and use cocaine. House minor, we meet Kevin Mccarthy, said: he'd lost trust in him, and republican Senator Thom Tillis from from home state of North Carolina endorsed his primary challenge These two primary serve as something of a cast of what the Republican Party and its voters will and won't accept, and today we're going to take a closer look at each race, including the wild card of democratic and independent support for waste

chain. We also had a good or bad use of pulling example that will try to get to the bottom of whether american support the parental rights in education law in Florida or what its critics call. The don't say, gay Bell floor to govern a rendezvous does signed that bill into law last week he would meet to discuss our senior writer Thompson Devout Hammy Leah again also with us, is of actions, analysed Nathaniel break a chain of annual morning. Given elections analysed Jeffrey Skelly, hedge ass, a gale and so on How is everyone during this morning that we all survive April fool's intact? Anyone get print confused. Sadly, I did not get pranks. You did not. Your paypal are getting boring, I am pro April fools, a million. I and people should be joking if you wish to take things ass

as they do all these people, who are the crouches on twitter, who are like April fool's day, is not fun to wrong sorry well, I'd recommend just standing April fool's day off twitter. If that would be my first correctly, living a happy life any day as Jeff Sarah Palin to you, Sarah Palin. seemingly pride, because I actually generally thought when I saw some tweeting about the fact that she is running for Alaska House said that as the second April fool's day, and so I googled it, and then I saw the New York Times and read the story like that and publish eleven minutes before, and I was like oh no, this is, well! The thing is this: isn't April fools? So it's not a it's, not a prank, it was a prank, it seemed prank ish, but it was indeed not a prank, and I saw that Trump has endorsed her yeah. I was going to say if that was a print. There was an elaborate prank that the former president was in on. I got pranked because only very briefly, Tony

Everyone knows as being in charge of the control room for this podcast shared on slack that you were going to be able to see in northern whites from New York City on April, first, which I was like. Oh that's, kind of cool interesting. Let me read, but then in the The court said that they were going to be dimming like one world trade center. The crisis are built, an empire state building to reduce the light pollution so that people could see and then as soon as they suggested that dimming three skyscrapers in New York City would actually affect low level of light pollution. I was like oh shit right if people first so Tony almost got me anyway. Let's get in to you are good or bad use of polling example. So the parental rights in education law bans classroom

structure and on sexual orientation and gender identity in kindergarten through third grade and limits it to what is develop mentally appropriate after that, allowing parents to sue if violated. So do Americans support this controversial law. Well, in recent weeks, different pollsters have found dramatically different results based on how they asked risks and that's about it, and a b C news poll found only thirty. Seven percent support the law nationally and a university of North Florida poll found only forty percent of Floridians approved of the law. On the flip side, however, two national polls, one from politico and one from Opinion strategies found majority support for the law with sixty one percent support in the public opinion strategies pull each bolstered used a different approach, which we condemn

into, but the question here is, which is the better use of Poland, which gives us more insight into what American think about this law or is each pull simply giving us a different information? What's up with you Nathaniel? Do you think that one of these polls is better designed for understanding public opinion. No, not particularly, I think you put it very well Gail, and I think each of these polls is telling us something different and that is all valuable nation and we should kind of take all of that into account it's kind of no different from other things you discussed on this podcast such as you know, the build back better bill and the vessel Ask about the billions zillion things in that bill. Verse has just saying: go back better or support for no fly zone over Ukraine and you know people not knowing maybe what that entails different in wording sore veal, different things and that's good. Ok, then, what do we know about the different pieces of that law at its popularity based on that

idea yeah. So it seems like when the questions mention or emphasize the age appropriate nature of the the building know that it is targeted at banning near this instruction for younger students. Think grade three and below and then even above that you're kind of making a quote unquote age appropriate, which I think is actually the language it's in the bill itself, which is fairly vague. Don't you know that I think people do seem to be more on board with so, for example, in the the political morning consult poll, they are specifically about those portions of the bill and they had, I think, slight majority support. So is fifty per cent for banning the teaching of sexual orientation from kindergarten through third grade. and it was fifty two percent for limiting the lessons for third grade and older to quote age, appropriate discussions. At the same time, the part that seems less popular is the ability for

parents to sue school districts over alleged violations of this. So that was not popular in the morning consult poll. It only had one doing the math here, forty one percent support and then also at the University of North Florida poll, which mentioned some things that the bill would do but ended on that legal liability thing found only forty per cent support, Amelia and John Deere agree here that each polish is giving us for information, and it doesn't come down to methodology or that some of the poles might the offer wrong I think the real challenge here is that it is not actually clear what this bill will do, and I don't know how you communicate that effectively. In a poll, question as the issue, is that there are all these terms in the language that are incredibly subjective. Nathaniel, you mentioned age, appropriate, like parents to fight

whether everything is age appropriate for children select the idea that we can read the words age appropriate, and everyone knows what that means. Obviously, that's not true, and it's not clear what counts is instruction, what counts as a lesson in the word discussion was used in other places, so lake is it just, for example, talking about the fact that someone has gay parents like? Does that count as classroom discussion, or is this sort of specifically, lesson with, like a curriculum about sexual orientation and gender identity. All of that is completely unclear Ines, and so it

really, I think, makes it hard to present this clearly to people, and it also makes it hard for people to react, and so the pole I liked the least was the one that just read part of the bill to people is. The wording of the bill is very confusing, and I think just having that read to you are seeing that Cleon a pole like people are not really going to absorb what that means, like I read it several times before I like figured out like oh, this is this is what all these parts of the sentencing, but other than that. I just think this is like a really hard situation to be in if you're a pollster I think my general thought is that it's pretty clear that bringing in terms like age appropriate raise support for the legislation. Where is just sort of a simple like one sentence, description talking about prohibiting discussions, lead to greater opposition and in the pool that was specifically of Florida voters, or

it also. I forget if it was adults or voters that one mentions the fact that the bill would open the door for parents to sue and that isn't very popular, and we saw at the politico morning consult poll that that particular part of the legislation wasn't popular. so for them to include that in the actual language of the of the sort of overall test of people's support for our position, it's not a shock that it didn't pause while because your specifically you sort of killing people with that information, so I think it's just a really interesting example. Of how finding the truth, is really challenging and how much wording can affect plug responses. This is a part that was sort of confusing to me and makes it difficult to get

the bottom, so we know across a copper polls that mentioning the legal liability aspect of it isn't popular. So people generally don't like the idea of parents just suing school districts over curricula. However, the two poles that had the most divergent results never mentioned anything about the lawsuits. So this is an obvious if those pull that found the least support. You know they're asking about several different topics to national adult on another topic: would you support or oppose legislation that would prohibit classroom lessons about sexual orientation or gender? identity in elementary school support. Thirty seven percent opposed sixty two percent, so it seems pretty overwhelming when you look at it that way, but the public opinion strategies poll You mentioned Amelia that lists part of the law. They re part of laundry. Do you support or opposing this is what they re classroom

structure by school personnel or third parties on sexual orientation or gender identity may not occur in kindergarten through third grade war in a manner that is not data propria or development we appropriate for students in accordance with state standards, their support. Sixty one percent oppose twenty six percent, so it's almost like, even if you take the lawsuit aspect, this? You get basically mirror image results if you synthesize it into one sentence verses, if you actually give respondents the text of the law, I mean it sounds Amelia like you. Don't think that we should just give people the text of the lobby to Jamaica I confusing like this seems like relatively straightforward information, but people just respond to it so differently. Are any theories for Y yeah me and I think in that case the public opinion strategies pull the quoted the bill. You have again that language about corn could each appropriate

which I think makes a big difference and also ended with in accordance with state standards, which I feel like is going to be like well wealthier if the The Singh says it's okay, new and especially this is a national poll, and actually, I'm not sure, did they specify if they were in support a Florida law that said this or a law in their state cause. That would make a difference. I would imagine that parents in Massachusetts might be a lot more accepting of state standards set by their liberal legislature, for example. So I still think there's plenty of kind of reason. There could be a divergence that said yeah I mean this. Is you know it's a big gap and it's interesting to suss out. I thought the more interesting tension between the polls in here was actually between the morning consult poll and the a b c Ipsos poll, because I think further things that you were mentioning this annual and also just the fact that the bill language, like I do it's hard to parse. I think, if you hear the language of the bill, you could read that I that and not understand that this is just a complete ban on

at classroom instruction about these topics, even cater third grade, which may make a difference for people but the morning Consult Poll asked a more simple question, a more straightforward question: didn't quote the bill taxed, and so it says a hazard like a lengthy preamble and then to what extent you support or oppose the following items in the bill banning the teaching of sexual orientation and gender identity from kindergarten through third grade. So that's pretty comparable think in terms of clarity and getting to the point to the ABC NEWS, Ipsos Poll, and for that it was fifty percent support? Thirty four per cent opposition and then some people said they didn't know fifteen per cent. It looks like or had no opinion, and so that is pretty diff. I think these the preamble to the morning consult poll is what's making a difference because they the bill and then

said some say that limiting these discussions will protect children from inappropriate classroom topics, while others say it will block important conversations about out of each tissue issues so that sort of presented what the foreign against is in the universe of this pole question, which arguably is not what would happen, but I think that hued people to the politics of the issue by saying that it would block important conversations about algebra tissue issues and also TAT soldier from inappropriate classroom topics? There's like a little sort of lake partisan, like we're in the question, and I think that I'm going for millions of Yad partisan siren method rang. I need to make up button. There just has

Amelia saying there was a little partisan were going to push the button during the large ass yeah yeah? I don't know it just the area in me singing my little siren for the whole package scale, unknown ones, yeah, but I think that is the difference I think between the results and is not to say that like cause like this is super politicized. So I don't know that that's inaccurate, like the way that people are talking about. It is hyper hyper partisan. But I think that explains why you get a different result. Yeah and I think, to that point to even more simply the morning consult poll. I said that this is a real bill in Florida. That is referred to as the downside, Gabriel, which might, reminded people. Oh I heard something about that and, like I know, which part the side of the camp. I am on on that, whereas the a b c Ipsos poll presented it basically as a hypothetical. So do you think it's fair to say from all of this information that this law is popular I think, the one thing that's clear is that it is divisive and

maybe some of these you know the ones that show it with either a thirty percent margin and either way you could argue, that's not divisive, that's a pretty strong majority but like the apple which all these are courses. You know I our best way of determining what The quote: unquote. Real feelings are to the extent that their people have real feelings, because this is such an amorphous issue. It seems like the country is divided. There is a significant site on one side and a significant number on the other side. Okay, so also harkening back to our podcast from last Thursday, which I know you guys weren't a part of, but we talked about wedge issues and I'm thinking about this issue and the possibility that Americans just may have somewhat conflicting views. We know from other polling that even majorities of Republicans now support same sex marriage and there was you are, for example, whether a trench under students can use the bathroom of their preferred gender, etc. There was a pretty big backlash to things like that.

we know that in general, Americans are supportive of gay people and pretty supportive of trans people. In certain circumstances, well. We also know that when you pull parents about education they say they want more control and it seems natural that parents would want to say ok, only age, appropriate things. for my child in elementary school, so is it possible that Americans may agree in large part on two things that are somewhat conflicting at times, or that this law tries to put in conflict with each other, but they when you give it a certain part, is on a framing one way or another. You are able to sort of drive a wedge in one direction or another. When you make it about okay, you're being bigoted cord gay people, then you get a majority on your side or when you say you're proving parents from in their children are learning age. Appropriate material majority on your side, so is it that Americans

it in two or is it that its complex area? Definitely, I think it's that it's complicated, to show the value in framing share the way that is beneficial to your side. I don't mean to create the impression that there actually is a sat opinion out there that we just have covered, yet I think that it is malleable and dependent on how people are are asked to think about it. There's an aspect of the parental rights framing that I think, is pretty fascinating and sort of genius, roof framing perspective, but also explains why this lawsuit component is so unpopular, which is that when pair, answer: ask do you want more control over your children's education or or you know, do you want to make sure that your children are being taught age, appropriate content, they're thinking about that for themselves?

when, in reality, parental rights legislation, especially something like this- is going to delegate decisions about that to the loudest minority of pair. Hence who have a view that is probably not the main stream opinion, but there are going to be the ones who are filing complaints and making their way. I just heard in the school district, and they are the ones who are going to you know be potentially filing lawsuits, and so I think when people think about it more from that perspective, which I think the lawsuit component does like. I think that does sort of make the same claim. Oh, who would actually be deciding, and then they realize. Oh it's actually. Maybe it's not actually me deciding what I think is right for my kid. It's some other random parent in my kids school, and maybe I

I agree with that person. So I think there's attention to because everyone says: oh yes, parents should be able to decide when they want sensitive topics introduced to their children, and you know they want age, appropriate content. But then again you know anyone who's been to like a p t. A meeting like these are not issues that, like parents get up together and they say. Oh yes, we agree and I think, once people are sort of prompted to think about it. You know that take that one extra step, then It becomes less sort of clearly saying that people are just like our show. That sounds guy. That's interesting, so what do we give us? What do we get? Those use appalling, what rating to recover complicated use? falling. Yes, I mean, I think all of these are good uses polling appalling. They give us information regarding diplomatic. If you Nathaniel all these pulsars keep asking about it. I know I'm just great inflation, you

you gotta, give you suppose you gotta get it. You gotta get he's fine. Alright, let's leave is there and discuss representative Liz Cheney's primary Liz. Cheney is facing perhaps the toughest primary election in the country. She's been a vocal critic of Trump and much of the G o P has ostracized her. She was booted from house leadership last year and censured by both the YO mean an national republican pardons her primary challenger. Harriet Hagman has been endorsed by President Trump. One potential saving grace for change, which has got a lot of attention in the media, is Wyoming's. Same day, registration rule in the primary meaning that Democrats and unaffiliated voters could choose to vote in the republican primary come time in August.

some are publicans and why only sought to prevent that possibility by introducing a bill to end the same day, registration is endorsed by Trump, but it was not ultimately passed. So, let's talk about the extent to which Democrats and unaffected voters could save Cheney and wailing and where she falls within today's GEO. Pe so just you looked at past elections to try to determine how many crossover votes there might be out there and in fact the article that you wrote as a result is on the five thirty eight website. Today's vote should go check it out, but for our purposes gear What did you find how many crossover voters are there out in the world? No, not in the world in Wyoming, it's difficult without a voter file to pin down the exact number but based on the overall voter registration data. I looked back particularly at the two thousand and eighteen primary in Wyoming because there was a really competitive governors, race really competitive republican primary for governor, I should say with Bob

we'll candidates, including Harriet Hagman, who finnish third in that primary and is now running its shiny, and in that race you saw about one hundred fewer democratic registrants, the primary about twenty seven hundred fewer people who who registered as like an independent or a libertarian, or what have you and about? eight thousand more republicans between the primary next time they publish the numbers which was like a week and a half later. So we can to me that most of that switching based on what happened on primary day when people either registered took eventually day registration or they took advantage of cross over voting and switch. their party registration at the polls, so at the end of the day, you're talking about maybe there were four or five thousand people who actually switched their party registration, and the day there were about eight thousand new republican voters.

so some of that was from new people registering a of that was for people switching in terms of voter registration. So it's not a lot of pee, full in the sense that he had a little over one hundred and seventeen thousand people vote in the republican primary in two thousand and eighteen, so no not a huge percentage. Let's tease that out a little bit. So if we accept that the world of crossover voters is eight thousand people in the state of Wyoming, which I'm not sure I necessarily accept, but we can get into that. How close with the election have to be. For crossover our to make the difference for Cheney. Well, I mean I played that out a little bit in the article. It's its it's essentially a question of Cheney. I think, has to keep it. And it's sort of a single digit margin. I tried and republican registered voters order to imagine a scenario where you could get enough crossover voting that woods in swing the election to her and that's assuming- and I think this is also an assumption that is not gotta, be careful with it that

All those crossover voters would vote for her and with new, registrants coming in as well. I think that also gets complicated, because my suspicion Is that new, registered republican voters at the polls are not it's going to be favourably predisposed toward this Cheney, so that's also maybe a place where she might lose ground so I think it just has to be a pretty tight race for this to matter at all. Alright, so, and here I'm cured is what Amelia and of annual view also think? There's never been an election, probably like this in Wyoming, in which there is a very high profile incumbent, you know obviously, the Cheney We looms large in Wyoming or a sort of the country on the whole as well. Cheney has, more than seven million dollars in the bank. Some crossover appeal: does historical data help us all that much when we're trying to understand such a unique election. Could it be the case that

We're not levels are more similar to a general election and for cross over borders, or something like that. It's possible. I think that is very hard for a primary to have the general election level of turn, but yes, I think everything you're saying is correct: Galen NEO! This is in many ways. Unprecedented is going to be a very high profile election. There's me a lot of advertising telling people to go out to the pool, in a sense. I hesitate to make this comparison, but you could compare it to like the Georgia run off and early two thousand and twenty one where we had this robust pattern of turnout declined, in running and Republicans tending to do better in the run off than they have done in the general election. But on that was broken. Of course, Democrats, one those races on because it was a battle for controlled the chamber, and that was unprecedented in the states as high in this election, but you could see something

that happening, but I still think that you kind of have to use as your your priors to use a very five thirty eighty term. This fact that primary- tends to be low cross. Our voters tend not to make a difference and a close election me. we should be aware of the possibility, but more so the normal, considering the circumstances. But but my kind of default position is the same Jeff and Nathaniel. You are the people who I always go to with my election history. Questions. You think of an election where crossover voters have made a difference like it is this just like a thing people talk about, or is there actually precedent for this? Having happened? Lisa markets, these writing campaign in Alaska, well, I think that's also just a different situation it also a general election. So, like primaries yep, the first example that comes to my mind, is actually a primary runoff in twenty fourteen ad cochrane fad, Cochran and Chris Book

I got on the same page same pay right here so in that race, and that was the state that has run off rules Mississippi. the majority in the primary to win. The nomination. Wyoming doesn't have that, although there was a pushed, it potentially pass. Something like that in the aftermath of of Cheney sort of getting pushback back from the Jew. But busy. What happened is that and trail very narrowly in the primary by Chris began your phone just short of a majority, and so which will run? in the run off Cochran won by about a point, There was actually higher turnout in the primary runoff, which was unusual than in the first round of the primary and there was a concerted effort by Cochrane and his team to find voters, particularly in the african american community, to turn out four conquering and there was also a complications with that because of rules about having voted in the democratic process than not being able to vote the republican primary run off, but none the less given

tight margin. It was, I think there was at least some consideration that turning out some voters who maybe didn't vote in the initial primary saved Cochrane, and was seen as the preferred candidate for Democrats or independence, or why Oh yeah is Cochrane, was sort of an old style, appropriate her who'd been in average forever where's Chris Mcdaniel was very much like very the establishment tea party. he had said. I think positive things about the confederacy in the past, which was part of. I think Cochrane Seem was trying to use the particularly when over some black voters. So yes yeah that was sort out that played up here. So I think the evidences is fairly strong. Were black eyes did make a difference while a difference, maybe not worthy, decisive factor but made it up

four conquered and that re so at the time need Conan, Derek well Ass, a thing your times wrote an analysis of this. They found that turn out greatly increased in predominantly back precincts and that about half of Cochrane's margin on was accounted for by these kind of heavily democratic and black precincts, but I will point out Cochrane's winning margin that race with seven thousand six hundred and sixty seven votes and that's a very small margin. This is an estate four times as big as whiling or maybe three times I was going based on how many houses they have, but I know I mean has people than that, but anyway thousand don't worry. We believe you can do many things gave him. This was a very post race and that's the circumstance where the black vote seem to make a difference. So do the math for Wyoming so Why you all are telling me is that crossover voters could make a difference, but we can argue what exactly the margin would have to be, but that Cheney has to keep it pretty close with tag

it's not going to be like. Oh, it would have been Hagen's beating Cheney by twenty points by Democrats and on affiliated voters want it for changing so good In that I'm curious- and this brings us to the point that we started on in this podcast What these changes standing like with in the Republican Party in why? Oh man, I mean: do we have pulling on that does her cash advantage seem to be making any difference. What can we say about where she stands today well. We don't really have much in the way of of recent polling of the race. There was a pole in December that put her at about twenty percent and Hageman at about forty percent. So that's clearly not good and others. There's there are some even older polling. That found for like her favorability, among likely republican primary voters was in the twenties and her unfavorable is it like seventy percent, and there was another pause

from even earlier on that the nature of the races changed a bit because of candidates, sort of coming in and dropping out? But there was another point even earlier on that had her in the twenties. So I think the point is that she's not in a very good position. there's of her support among republican primary voters that died in the war? albicans. That will make up most of the republican primary electorate. So with that in mind. This is coming back who is the main idea behind my piece, which was that all this talk about crossover voters don't matter at all. If Jane can't win over a good chunk of the Republican Bay and in Wyoming, and it seems like at the moment, she's really struggling on that front. We don't have a lot of polling data off, but when you have the state, essentially ex communicating her. Committees all over the state. formally censuring her. None of that seems to be very good. You're trying to figure out. How do you win enough support to be close enough, we're sure maybe there are more Democrats than usual his switch, but I also talked about a state where

percent of registered voters are republican in Wyoming and only about Sixteen seventeen percent are Democrats, so it's like you got it We want better at the seventy percent there to have any chance for that small number to matter at all, but Action, isn't for awhile right, it's what three four months away in August this year, seems to have more money than God. So Is there a possibility that she uses that money in some way? That is very effective that counterbalances this pretty serious disadvantage. She seemed to have at least last year when the polling came through. I mean that the financial imbalance between the two candidates is is really really really big. So can her money save her and maybe to that point as well and area if she'd try to use that money to save her. What is the message like when you're an anti Trump Republican,

Is there anything you can say that you can then spend all of that money putting on television and radio ads and Facebook and Youtube whatever that will win people over to your side, well to Emily's question. I think the answer is definitely yes. I think there are plenty of time for to turn this around, as he mentioned, so he has almost five million dollars in the bank right now versus just three hundred and eighty one thousand for Hagen, especially primary campaign still matter money spending. Does matter and to deal question. I think that she and really emphasize her conservative credentials of what she has plenty that are kind of in the non Trump division, and then I think that she can also just attack human and can bring her fair rolls down and make it a choice of two evils: type of situation. I also think well, I'm as I do from Jeffrey, but there are probably a lot of kind of outside groups who can come in and maybe try to do sneaky things in the race, like maybe try to elevate one of the other pro trump it is in the race and siphoned

totes away from Hagaman and toward like Anthony Bouchard, for example, whose he's a state senator also running, who hasn't gotten traction because he's he's got some baggage, but values values just waiting. My lady, he impregnated a fourteen year old girl when he was eighteen years old. So I definitely think that there's from for money to make a difference in this race, given the financial disparity given the fact that Haman hasn't proven herself a particularly capable candidate in the past, finishing third in the two thousand and eighteen gubernatorial primary. So this is a situation where, if well like a a general election and we were looking at new modeling it. You would say you know the fundamentals,

Favor Cheney, but Hagerman starts out with the pulling advantage and since we're still four months out from the race, you would give the fundamentals a fair amount of weight. Obviously, if it becomes August first and pigments still has the pulling lead, then you would probably have to say the chain is the underdog at that point? Sort of broadening this article lessons we can learn about the republican Party? Is it fair to characterize this as a referendum on Trump in Wyoming and obviously Wyoming is not the nation and it's not the

how can party you know from close to coast? Why is that kind of the only issue it when we're looking at this early pulling as like? Do you support tromp or not, and if you support tromp you're ready for him in and if you don't you're, supporting your party for training or lignite support, but like do you as a republic in like and want more of trauma, I think it is partly that I also think it is, and I base in this in part office hours, this washing Higgins Intra Video earlier today and they talk about like sort of a commitment to the party, and perhaps it's also commit to Trump as having been leader of the party. That saw the point Cheney got into trouble with her bass by voting to impeach Trump and then continue to oppose him. Afterward of being very loud in that opposition, which I think also rubbed many of her colleagues in the house. The wrong way we're sort of like let's kind of move past January Sixth, is best with and but for voters in Wyoming. I think it's partly a pitch about Trump, because Trump is still very popular within the Republican Party, but I think it's also a pitch about

Cheney, sort of not being true to the Republican Party by not being committed to Trump, and also the at the end of the day, most of Wyoming voters, probably weren't in favor of impeaching him, and so she sort of went against her voters and that can get you in trouble, especially when it's so clearly lopsided in opposition to what she did. So it's partly if a referendum on Trump, but there's, like other things, sort of rolled into that that I think are worth noting. You know it's not only that. I think. There's going to be a number of primary elections. This, of course, is the marquee one, where they have a large component of being a referendum on Trump, and certainly the press will frame them as being a referendum on Trump. If we sort of a block past the elections and just go straight to the data how popular is Trump still within the Republican Party today? He is very popular

ass, he had imagined with polarize environment. His favorability rating, I think, is consistently eighty ninety percent. Among Republicans, there is so more soft underbelly there in that like when you ask who we should vote for in the twenty twenty four. For primary. He doesn't hit eighty percent. You know there was one poll that put him at fifty nine percent. That was Harris Caps. There is another that put him at forty three percent, although that was still well ahead of of anyone else. That's a you, Gov Yahoo NEWS poll now has, at forty three per cent followed by dissenters at twenty two, so there's a little space there to be liked. Where, like I like Trump, but I am not necessarily like wedded to him as the future of the party and maybe the that's an area where those voters might persuadable but no overall, I think the takeaway is Trump, is extremely popular. Popular assist, a question of how devoted, and perhaps the right word devoted republican voters are to him when the only thing that I think is interesting about, what's happening in why? Oh man is either in a sensible,

that is also a test of how it nationalized people's thinking about politics has become because I dont think you know from like a perspective of who is going to be the better representative for the people of women's interests in Congress, there's, probably not a lot of daylight between Cheney and Hageman and Cheney, has a record of having been in Congress and she's conservative on Republicans care about, and I think she's really trying to emphasize was it comes to impeaching Trump right, right and she's, trying emphasising these are all the things that I've done for the people of. Why arming, and so if they are really making a decision based on whether she should have Mps traveller who has trumps port, then that's like a pretty striking place for us to be politically because people aren't necessarily thinking who is.

Bring jobs back to Wyoming or who is going to deal with like land use in ways that I care about, and so I think that'll be something that's interesting to me to see. If the Chinese, if she is sort of leaning into this message of lake, look either we've done a lot of things for Wyoming that have been good and people have liked. If that resonates with people at all. In this political climate, the and for training is that the report can party? This point is just almost uniformly per drop, its different shades of tromp. So you can be a sort of troops. Good he's fine or it can be very, very troubled but the problem for Cheney that she occupies a position where she is sort of in that small camp of vocally Anti Trump remains critical, openly critic and not just in a like. Well, he

is screwed up on this thing, but at the end of the day you know his policies were good. Like she's been just very vocally critical of Trump. I mean she caught him like the threat to democracy is a danger to the country cannot be allowed to reside in the White House regretted voting for him. I was just living it looking at civics polling on this, just because they've tracked his favorability over over the years- and his favorability among Republicans, was eighty three percent. The last time they updated so like Eighty percent cent, Republicans in your your vocally trump, is just see why this is a very difficult position to be in none other interesting thing about are, you said: Amelia is the national. station of the race, and I feel this is a

I swear it will be more nationalized than other primaries that are like this, because Cheney actually doesn't have those strong ties to Wyoming and quote unquote, delivering for Wyoming right. So she primary former senator MIKE Enzi, initially to try to get into the Senate in that one very badly she would he was. She was seen as like. Wallace is just the daughter of a former vice president who wants a seat in Congress and she just moved. in here to take it and she's relatively new in the house, and you think about some of these other pro impeachment. Republicans like someone like Fred Upton in Michigan. who's been around forever has strong ties to the region that he represents and, and bring on bacon in that kind of thing, and for someone like him, you could it becoming. You know about his personality and you know what he's done for the district, and I think it is harder for Cheney to make that argument, which is why to Galen's earlier question, I feel like her strategy is going to be maybe making the race about other national conservative, wedge issues that aren't trump or dragging down Hagan, and rather than pointing to I built this.

Jim giant- that's really interesting. Nathaniel say you think, like she doesn't have credibility to be making those claims Coming, not really. I don't know. What do you think every? Why maybe she has some credibility, but perhaps she does not have as much as someone who has been there for a long time or you know had been like state rep for state senator for a few years or mayor of some notable city or something and then got into the house. So she doesn't quite have that normal relationship to your point about jumping into the center race in twenty fourteen right and then deciding is it going well and then dropping out and then coming back and winning the house seat in twenty? Sixteen it just doesn't come off as well as press for some other reps would and I think in another world seven years ago. You would think that the,

any name would have a lot more cachet and while many ready to give you an example of how Trump has been approaching, he released a Photoshop photo of Cheney with bushes face and her hair ahead of a fundraiser Bush and Cheney basically saying that legacy doesn't have a lot of value in Trump's Republican Party, and I have you in obviously in and sixteen he ran against. legacy. So I guess that's another area where the sort of Wyoming connection might be free a bit. Let's move on and wrap up, show talking about someone who seems to have fallen out of favor with the Republican Party by project a going too far in the opposite direction from this chamber, and that is North Carolina.

I presented Madison costs, or so the straw that appears to have broken the camel's back has to do with his comments on a topic that actually reach about last week on this package he was on. The pike has warrior poets society and the host asked him. How close The tv show house of cards is to the reality of Washington. Actually we literally debated this last week, but anyway, our conversation went very differently from his conversation. Here is how his answer to that when I heard a former president that we had in the nineties was asked the question about this a hand he did Answer that I thought was so true and he said the only. That's not accurate in that show is that you could never get a piece of legislation about about education past I quickly and everything else is guy. Aside from that, I mean the sexual. the version that goes on in Washington, I mean it being kind of a young guy in Washington, remember the average age of probably sixty or seventy

I all these people a lot of them that I you know I've looked up to through my life, always paid attention to politics, guys that then, all of a sudden you get invited like whoa, hey we're going to have kind of a sexual get together at one of our homes. You should come now what? What did you That's when you come to, and then you realize they're asking to come to an orgy or the fact that you lose some of the people that are leading on the movement, to try and remove addiction country, and then you want him doing it I'll, keep him with cocaine right in front of you and it This is this is why, as you can see it, our conversation did not go quite like that. After this, It became our house minority leader, Kevin Mccarthy, said he lost faith in the congressman and retired

North Carolina senator come tell us, as I mentioned, endorsed cause, aren't opponent collar and has at watts of very out there things somewhat recently. He called the president of Ukraine a thug, and then it comes to behaviour discharge currently with a misdemeanor for driving. Whether provoked licence has been accused of sexual harassment by former classmates, why is this the thing that got his started to turn on him at least part of his party to turn on him because he's saying they're going to order cheese, yeah. Maybe that was a stupid question. I don't know all those other things you know you can. People can just be like. Oh, you know whatever Madison's crazy, he does what he wants but like this is the thing that, like if someone hears about this on Fox news, and then they go to a town hall where their republican politician is ok, they're gonna be like pay,

you say a little more about these orgies. So I think it's like this. These comments reflect very badly on Republicans in a way that you know the other stuff like. Maybe it just makes them look bad, but also not it's early in a way that people care about is he bashing the establishment? Obviously we don't know who he's talking about, but is this meant to say that oh, the establishment of Washington is like this and I'm not part of that establishment and sort of my coterie of other people who have my style of politics? Aren't this, but there are like establishment, Republicans doing cocaine. inviting me to orgies is that the underlying message here I mean I don't know gale. I think it's it's possible that you're you're right. I just like what is he talking about? We, I, we should have no it's because, if you're lucky, I ran a good driver to come on. The part hasn't you, like my friends, invited me to an orgy and we're like doing her pain in front of me

that would imply, gave me two unless I was like. Oh there's like this group of people, that I know that I dont like but also kind of associate with. I guess I'm confused, but also what game and I have to go to the party because that's where everybody else is no, I just have to go and then stuff happens. There Why should I discussed it, but I have to go to bed and I know the people who are doing it, who invited me to go with them. I mean look like I think we must think author knows why he said what he said, but I do think that that kind of comment plays into these stereotypes that people have do you know people are disinclined to like the current quota establishment, and so when you hear something about members of Congress who are by definition, the establishment, even your mother, Taylor, green. You are. You have a business. Or so you are assets astonishment. It kind of does go into that vein of people, thinking politicians in Washington and specifically are entitled and

corrupt and things like that. One also, I mean the reason we are talking about house of cards last week is because there was a poll suggesting that a lot of people think that house of Cards reflects reality. So I think also he is perhaps responding to what appears to be this real perception and that you know Washington is really dirty and and is really corrupt, and there are maybe orgies of like sure, maybe people are doing coke in the House office building or you know whatever and like he is there and he's seeing it and he shocked by it, but he's like maintaining his purity. As someone who you know sort of came in with this fresh faced idealism- and just you know, while it was going to say, wants to get things done, but this is Madison Cawthorne who does I get things done, but explicitly said he's not in right exactly right, so he's there to do in

tv, but I think for us when we talk about this again. Last week, like I live in DC, I know that this is a pretty boring place, but that's not the perception I have Washington or politics, and so I think, that's part of what he is responding to, that people think that this is what politics is like: okay. So during the verses for Cheney that was impeaching the republican president and voting to impeach a republican president for Cawthorne, it is seemingly implicating his colleagues in orgies and cocaine use. I should say he walked the statement back a little bit and Mccarthy said that cause or in fact hold him that he exaggerated, but how vulnerable is Catherine in his republican, primary and North Carolina, eleven I mean, I would say it's he's, maybe

more vulnerable than some of the members who we might talk about with him. So I can merge your Taylor, Green or Lauren Boebert, even if gates and maybe he's he's, maybe more vulnerable than any of them, but I actually don't think it's so much about the comments that he made. I think it's more about some of what's been going on at home for him politically, and this gets to the fact When North Carolina, the Republican, controlled legislature, initially passed a new congressional map. It created now called represents currently the westernmost district in the state takes an Asheville or Apple Asher. The national waving yeah shows great. There was a district. Traded created that basically sat between Charlotte and that district and gotta, be a more conservative, more right, leaning, district sort of in the exercise of Charlotte suburbs and exercise of Charlotte and caught there now He was going to run there, even though he represented like a tenth of that area currently,

but in the end, because of ongoing litigation and eventually a court drawn map, he's now running an essentially the same district that he currently represents. Instead of that other district, so I think he's potentially sort of lost connections at homed irritated people. By announcing he was going to run this different district which no longer- this now and now, he's like, oh, I guess I'll be running in the one I currently represent an eye, I think. It's maybe indicative of how he's handled, keeping things good on the front? You might say- and we know that politically for representatives, you want to keep your issuance somewhat happy. Obviously, partisanship matters a great deal, so well give any district and more likely to be really happy with the republican representative like Madison Catherine, but it today day, if you're not like keeping, relationships in good health, if you're not spin some time in the districts, you can get yourself into trouble and I think that's sort of what I think is actually coffins biggest problem and by

making that move to initially run a different district. Someone decided there's an open district, I'm going to run instead and, and that was the state sooner Chuck Edwards. To top tell us, the senator from North Carolina is now worse than that others have got behind and he stayed in the race when Catherine Job back into his current seat, the two them out. I think the most notable candidates running their but Basics None of this had to happen if Katherine had just run in the seat from the from the gecko, like Edwards, never jumps in if cawthorne. to try to run this other seat first, and so I think it's that sort of situation. That's gotten caught Catherine in the most trouble more than even these comments. I will say, though, near the Jeffries point. I still don't think he would say he may be in more danger than your average entrenched and comment, but I don't think he's in any protests

killer, danger of losing so on one of Edward's is internal polls found Catherine at fifty two percent and Edward that just twenty percent- and you have to bear in mind of course, of internal poll is something The erratic lee reflects the best case scenario for you so to release an internal pull. That shows you down. Thirty points is, I think, particularly Dan, and one was less than the commission. This was in February every tenth, the thirteenth, but to Jeffrey also. You know, I'm not sure that these comments are necessarily going to be a big thing against him with with local voters. You know if anything based on our conversation before they might agree with them and and think oh yeah DC is Europe's. In addition, you, North Carolina has a very low threshold for a runoff state, so in many states, if you don't get a majority, the primary you move on to run off and maybe in a head to head, you could argue because he's only at fifty two percent in that poll. You know it could be competitive, but they is North Carolina run rental specials, actually just thirty percent. So as long as

Katherine gets thirty one percent of the vote, which of course would be really bad for an incumbent. But even if he gets thirty one percent and nobody else gets higher, he still wins. So I think I you know, the smart money is on him returning to Congress next year, so maybe part of how we can tease out if Madison Conference troubles have to with redistricting and and jumping around, maybe more than some of the firebrand things he said is comparing to Margaret Hale agreeing partners. Our magnates born both, for example, are those. publicans facing primary challenges at home ones. That are at least credible as Collins, I say they coffins opponent right now I'll get words is probably the most credible challenger in this kind of Constellation Margie Taylor. Green does have you, I think one and of note Jennifer Stray hand who is a businesswoman. Kind of a similar situation, aware you know she well behind she released an.

a poll showed her trailing by thirty points as well. Are actually no, I should say that was a poll by political observers who are interested in a conservative alternative to Marjorie Taylor Green. I was not technically a campaign, yes Marjorie Taylor Tailoring of course of the fundraising machine, starts off the lead. So I'm betting on her again to win her primary pockets, Sarah and Matt Gates do not currently have primary challengers, at least not notable ones, and then and finally, Lauren Boebert- does have a state senator running against her Don Coram. We have

the fundraising numbers for him, but he's kind of a a moderate he's got to his state senator so he's not certainly not a nobody, but I would venture to guess that a republican primary electorate will be more of the red meat, throwing type that Bowart represents rather than somebody who, like Quorum, has talked about how he likes to work together with Democrats to achieve results which is kind of a quaint idea in primaries these days. Wrapping up here, thinking about it seems, like Kevin Mccarthy, has come out against him high Profile North Carolina Senator has come out against Katherine. How much control ultimately does party leadership have over things like this who's welcome in the party and who's not and, of course, there's nothing. The Democrats have dealt with at times as well, where the establishment leadership wants a fringe candidate or a more,

cuddle laugh candidate out, but seemingly can't necessarily convince voters like how much power does the party or leadership ultimately have to. I think they have some power, perhaps more than they are typically given credit for, especially in the time of the air of Trump and everybody being like. Oh Trump's, endorsement matters, a lots, and you always talk on the podcast before about how I think Mitch, Mcconnell and Kevin Mccarthy and everybody kind of war to lean on a different candidate, and you sport that versus a Trump endorsed candidate that candidate might do better than everybody would assume. But I do think that clearly, voters can make up their own minds. Trump self is a big deal and you have to put him into a different category than the traditional republican establishment. I think by all rights but still a fan of Medicine Catherine's. Even though I run a clear, he is one of the only Republicans who he endorsed against it, but who still want to primary last time. Around twice

if, if Trump endorses Cawthorne, but you have to tell us and near these other other people during it opponent. I think I would go with Trump in that case, if trump of endorsing This concern for some reason that could certainly get interesting. I think that would change the race. B. I think it's a combination of one third Tromp one third, every other republican officeholder, which means that individual, people like Tom tell us probably don't have that much sway themselves on, but if the entire rested a disease doubtful about against Catherine, that might be notable and then cut one third of voters just making up their own minds. Alright. Well, of course, as we've discussed in both cases, This training at mass and copper and there's a lot of Allah between now and primary legendary, which we will do and we will be tracking their primaries as well, but for now thank you. Amelia Jeff thanks Galen scale

My name is Galen droop Tony Chow is in the virtual control room, Claire Bitter Gary Curtis, as an audio editing, Chadwick Matlin is our editorial director and Emily Vinas Geek is our intern. You can get in touch by emailing us at podcast at five, thirty, eight dot com. You can also, of course, treated us with any questions or comments. If you're a fan of the show leave us a rating. or review in the apple podcast or someone about us. Thanks for listening and we'll see you soon, the