There's an ice to live in a country where, in the summer it was like a hundred twenty five degrees on the regular like swap, but is not fun. You dont want to sit outside and You know at Applebee's. It's not pleasant. Experience hello and welcome to the five thirty politics podcast I'm deal undertook a slew of Equality Polling released last week, shows an increasingly dire picture for president trot. We knew already that binding had a largely nationally, but poles of individual battleground states are now showing Biden up by a healthy margin in every swings day, an essentially tied in Georgia and taxes. So what's gone wrong, four tromp, is this a low watermark for him, or is the bottom really falling out here? Also the covert ninety

outbreaks across the South and South West have continued to worsen with Florida and taxes becoming the first states to re, impose restrictions. So why are these outbreaks happening now and how our politicians respond? We'll get to all of that, and here with me to discuss our editor in chief mate, Silver Heeny, Hank Ayman elsewhere. Thus it sooner politics. I declare Malone Heckler and senior politics, writer, Perry, Bacon, Junior, hey Perry, who does eagle? So let's begin with these recent covert. According to the New York Times, the number of new corona virus cases is up. Seventy six percent. In the U S. Over the past two weeks, there are reports of strained hospital capacity or the potential for a strain on resources across a number of states in the south. So me, I just start by asking in comparison into what we were all experiencing in the northeast in March and April. How bad are these outbreaks in the south

has it got into the point where we work here in New York. Yet you're pretty bad, but there are three important differences. Number. One is that we have much more testing capacity right now then back in March do you it I can allow these states, you don't have enough. Seemed to handle the overflow capacity, but still it might be there that you know you doing some on the order of five times as many tests. Then you work I can kind of late are truly April. That makes a difference, number two, the spread since the among different people seems to be primarily among younger people, who have been doing a variety of things going out socializing going to work I don't know if you want to get in the protest, but I was also construed among young people is not a debate about what effective lending that had. It's much younger and third, perhaps relate to that, and perhaps not so far,

not really seen much of an increase in death rates, in fact, then we're yes day is usually very slow for reporting. That was a lie. We have just reported the. U essence late March, I think, there's and settle search, took up again because there's a line between when you get infected and when you the hospital and you eventually pass away, at the same time, I dont think alike, all of it probably and if it had been nursing homes, there are various theories about what the virus looks. I accept there's a lot. We don't know I'd, say I'm this levy this wash postcard were in, MID April you're, talking about two thousand deaths a day or more than that and now you're in the range of Six hundred five hundred another's data is incomplete. Offer, but I think the comparison is useful in the dispute. What was happening right now is differ. That would happen in April in terms of death that may, of course swipe. I got. We don't know that yet do we know why this is happening right now. Is it just?

it was a matter of time. One states started reopening before cases came back, I mean. Is it's bad luck? Does it have to do with decisions made on the ground? Why right now so it's great question because it doesn't actually line at that perfectly with the reopening per se, though reopening back in Georgia back at the end of April and people kind of elected organ, have big spikes by the end of may did not so that the end of May and now in June you do see the types of spikes, they're, not necessarily all that stronger, lay two which states were more Women are more closely to think about a couple of things right number one. It's more importantly, how Behave then kind of what formal can Hence there may or may not be it. People person feel safe then things. He closed? Technically speaking and there still socializing. Conversely, things can be open can just not go right before

the Texas in Florida. But restrictions on by earth. For example, restaurant reservations were going way down right Once you will realise that my gosh there's big spread in these areas, people telling you to stay home, and so you have a perception that things are personally save in that committee I think there are some reasons why that perception began to become our common a few weeks ago. One might have been that you have this initial round. We openings and actually all declarations about our we're gonna have huge. Spikes didn't happen have you for being very careful initially right. You know also, obviously the start of June staying around social distancing, changed where you had also people saying well distant in european ports, but we understand these protests are important to us. You balancing risk began to hold rallies again. The national procession, moved away from coming towards these protests and toward the election and stuff like that. You know the other big fact I was also whether in Houston, Texas, it's too frickin hot

do anything outside at least in the afternoon in June July August, and so therefore we have people going from the warm pleasant outdoor full spring in the south in the southwest the doors to air conditioned environments, bodily airconditioning itself. We assert, here and there are some suggestions that there may be a vector for spread as well. So it's kind of the nation of climate. People letting their guard down. So we ve laid out here some of the reasons why the numbers are taking back potentially in the South and South West answer now. These states, which are more frequently governed by Republicans or trying to respond President Trump, still doesn't where a mask in public. So I'm curious. How is this presenting itself in republic in politics at the moment? How are sent it

theirs, and governors and the president, and vice president, we acting to this resurgence, so you ve seen over the last week, particularly Donald Trump, is not wearing a mass kind of dismissing what's going on to some extent, but my pants over the weekend was talking about people should, where mass you ve seen. Governors who made the governor of Texas was saying in Islamic said: maybe we didn't, we opened up to early your hearing Lamar Alexander talk about wearing a mass, I think the middle messaging on the democratic side was always where a man, the viruses, very serious way to stop it spread. I think you're, seeing more of death and republic it is well. I think this is now changing, and it's not it's not that we know whether they were wrong and taxes are larger than the first wave is different. Another thing is like if you saw early on a lotta republican you're saying not only today, where does they discouraging so the mask used, but they were in general, saying cities cannot be more restrictive than the state as they were kind of pre Ding cities from doing more than the state was now. They cannot backtracking, never governance,

zone is now saying a city can have a mass rapes and even at the state itself, does it and that's important, because cities are run by Democrats themselves in the cities, are more restrictive and more focused on mass worrying, for example, that is, in effect mulatto the butt of people who live in those cities. I think we're seeing over the last two weeks: what say is a shift in the Republicans I they probably includes everybody, but the President INA politically. I think trusting to see kinetic New York, New Jersey, banded together in a sort of by guess a blue state so coalition and said: listen if you're coming these. What was it? Six states were to ask you to quarantine. Obviously, if you can't really enforce that quarantine well, but I do think it speaks to the frustrations that certain states have with, frankly vote these red states that are now experiencing spikes in cases you know

The narrative around New Jersey, Connecticut and New York? All doing this quarantine is listen to people on the EAST Coast have been, putting in the at home work and we are irritated with these States- That's right! If it didn't think seriously say six weeks ago. We'll drive around the New York area and see. Please call whatever five one one to check and see if you should be quarantining if you're coming in from out of state, which is interesting, I mean I I do think along people, with the theme that this is happening in red, saves them over habiliments? There is amendment circle, accounts are wearing masks, less often partly because I live in areas that are more girl, but probably to control. For that still an hour it s gone how about distancing at this time. This is action, spreading now in quite a few states, and while correlated with political views of the state's right now for example, has issues right now. California, as a fair amount of issues. There are places like we're that we're not hit hard before

come from a very, very low baseline, so the absolute numbers are high, but the rate of increase is pretty high and then save people concerned that Florida Arizona to some extent taxes are kind of purple states. Because they are red stage in some of the spread of in kind of more urban areas, your bluer in these states right? So like the notion of just all these yokels in red. I think he's kind of a kind of lines with the data, but not as well as people assume with that said, clearly infects the politics of it, for example, if you have all the sudden now Texas rightly say they want to shut things down. Let's say hypothetically that Florida in Texas, in Arizona when it something shut down until September and its cooler again, you can start shifting things back outside well at the stimulus. Package runs out in July. Then you know, maybe all the sudden now centres from those states represented They are more interested now and having more continued stimulus,

you'd, see how my play out in the Congress so definitely affects by the way all these, because they are no actually not and not read, There also relevant electoral laws would like about in the next segment but like, but there are a lot of implications for sure. Yeah I mean a recipe. Is in the Atlantic, argued this exact thing by Ronald Browning. He wrote that the Sun belts base could spell disaster for Trump politically in those areas. Is there a reason to believe that the severity of an outbreak or the mitigating efforts in that states have to take? Do change that state or effective, quickly have other places with bad outbreaks moved away from Trump anyone. I think some of the sun belts as is make a lot of sense, that that, if an outbreak becomes particularly bad in a place like you know Arizona is the Florida of the west in the sense that it has a lot of retired people at hello has a lot of older people as we're gonna talk.

Our trump is, is losing support with older voters, and you know you can make some pretty educated gases about what that might be older people are obviously more adversely affected by overnight. In their lives, even evenness younger people go back to reality. Normal of their lives will be quite abnormal and isolated for oh a long time, and I think that there is You know, there's anger at the handling of the pandemic. So you could, you could see, places in the sunbelt that have a lot of retirees. Obviously, this place have a lot of younger people mean places in the sunbelt belt roof. I think, You know among the top sort of cities that younger people move too, but also, if you think, about voting populations in the states and box of people. That kind of makes a lot of sense that

that an advert that a big outbreak in a place like that would have adverse electoral effects? Obviously I should stipulate that's not my first concern. It's like you know, or people being scared of dying as we all are, but do you think that the politics of this year are so you know we ve talked about it with the old age of the candidates, and now you have the prospect of more imminent death because of of cover nineteen and people who are older. I mean it kind of raises the stakes, I think for people and is pretty stark way so soft great to have an outbreak, but it also operate politically when the only in the politics of it is I'm not sure for rare if our voters, democratic, publicans or even elected officials, how much divide is, I'm not sure I approve rig Abbot is handling the the outbreak much worse than the exodus demographic. What I would say, is the Donald TUSK

himself is very important here in the I think, if Donald Trump message was listening to the health experts, maybe this is the year when you don't get to go to bars very much Americans young people, all people going to bar this year indoors is maybe someday user reconsider for these next few months you can drink. The rest of your life is not determined. Twenty, like that, might be sent a message worth hearing dying out. You can drink at home, you drink at home, and if you did, I think I said and fast she said it and read, advocate, say it and dug dusak could say it and ran to scientists could say it and soak it for that matter. Jarrett pull us and so on. I do think be trouble effect. Here means the republican elected officials are sort of nervous about being out in front and sounding too liberal compared to him separate from that separate from politics. But the one thing that I have thought of about is how The way we live in different states, suburbia, ever Urban environments, like New York, I'll fresco,

dining verses, like air can do gin. Suburban Texas, like Strip Mall restaurants, which I love but like those are different experiences all this stuff it's not just the politics of the state. It's like the literal ways that we go about our daily lives, very your kind of caught out by how the hell just Lifestyle affects the stuff to lifestyle, affect your politics. Your political approach to this disease, because it You live in a place where everyone shops at be, and you can do so in the aisles verses like going to the Bodega Bay you gotta wait, light outside nor make sure, only like seven people are in the store at once. That does affect your perception of the disease. As I mean it, doesn't really have to do with the politics so much as just America has a lot of different lifestyles and tat? I think it started as a city diseases and urban disease, and I'm not sure Sir Urban America has adapted to that. Yet

I do want to move on, because we have a lot of poles talk about Clare. What's the saying live, pulse high pause, No one has made this t shirt yet, and I really want it to happen. What's the you sure explained the joke, These, the teacher would have like you know how outstrip clubs that usually has a big sign that points the arrows replying to my girls. The sun would have. Life falls kinda like a way, style sign this where wants five. Thirty is to sour as merchandise. Just trying to keep Lowbrow here guys. I think that you know there's too much highbrows stuff happening here on this podcast we'd get a little lower brow or going so there

a lot of Paul's live Paul's that came out last week. So, let's talk, rather than last week, we probably got the clearest picture on a state level of what the race looks like and that's because both the New York Times and Fox NEWS, as well as some other pollsters released, highquality poles. In fact near times, has an eight plus. According to our pollster rankings and Fox NEWS, hasn't a minus. According to our poster rankings, release pulls upswing, states and Biden lead in every single swing state in both of those poles, including in Fox NEWS as Poland, taxes and Georgia of a valley. There was within the margin of error and the race for this, and also what really bad for Republicans. So, let's digging into all of that- and let's start by asking a question that we like to ask from time to time, good use of polling or bad use of pulling. So in response to all these pulls. The EL word came up a lot last week being lost

flight so soon unpublished, article title Donald Trump is facing the prospect of a landslide loss. Newsweek also published an article that said trumps dire, weaker poll shows him headed for a landslide was, is too soon to be talking about a landslide when it comes to the twenty twenty election is not a bad use of Poland. I don't think it's a bad use of Poland, as I think that is a good sense of where the data is right. Now is a relevant question. I think right now it points to a landslide. I do worry that America, readers news. Consumers are not electoral experts and they get in their heads. The media saying it will be a landslide in November for sure, and I think that those articles are saying it is a little like a landslide at this moment, but things

the change. Tromp is at a low moment, but he could get his numbers can improve. The countries like is falling apart, of course people, but rather it is a bad situation. I think, is a good use of polling, while I'm always nervous about. Are we doing a good communicating uncertainty and how far the election is from today to the readers, and I'm always nervous about that, provide thirty, eight everybody. Everybody else. Do you know this is like a bug. General are like into it I've seen it was the evidence was there, the trunk could win. People did nicely read it that way, and I hope for communicating that well yeah. I feel like gettin up well actually conversation with someone were they bring up like the big landslides of of the eighties and I kind of think You know we don't really live in a land. Sidle, landslide election country, any more and in my party says, like will, first of all

these times battleground state poles are getting a lot of attention and obviously to single pole- and you know, there's what for four months to go to the election five months ago to the election and things will probably revert a little bit, but I just eight- it troubles impeach six months ago, and we don't hardly ever talk about that now, I don't think the pandemic is at all the same thing, because I think that is is gonna, be a part of our lives for a long time. But I do think that sometimes in politics we. Mistake our immediate emotions you, those feelings of immediacy, are not going to be what were feeling in six months. From now on, if I've been of, we ve learned anything, it's that trumpet produces a high level of uncertainty in chaos into politics, to his death, Nature has benefits, elect orally. I guess at certain points of time. So that's my point. My other thing is like this is this is speaking of bringing

that the Pied cast a little more lowbrow. My media thought upon seeing that like three New York Times pulling like life holes was money did they spend on this like how much money are they spending on pulling this election? It's like really, quite they're doin it out yeah. I want a single strand of those live, Paul's, yeah, ok, Does your brow come down on the side of good use, appalling or bodies appalling? It sounded like daddy's appalling. It think good, but it's you know. I do think that there's an interesting thing were alike. Listen, I'm I'm a hearty New York Times, reader and consumer, but a lot of pullup like a lot political media is driven by like will. What are the New York Times lead with? What was the dailies like podcast about, unlike its support pools and like to their credit. They are battleground staples, which I do you think is like very good, but also the reason why

so much attention. While a crystal is a writes about. It is because it's like a big new times joint and so not green. Thought so much like yeah. This is interesting, but not like it's also June. Twenty ninth, we haven't even have the conventions that you guys. So you know it's super interesting. It don't get me wrong. I didn't get supporting I do not have the authority on that need Neither can we The word landslide in June, twenty twenty, you can look at a landslide is one possibility, because it is a possibility. It's always. Possibility that what's happy in the polls currently will also happen in November for the whole democratic primary Joe Biden, was ahead until I awhile people, I urge abundant women and Joe Biden One and can in second place Bernie Sanders was in second place. So yeah it's a possibility is at the moment possibility probably say not: can trump still course, again yeah look, I mean

Obviously, when news authorizations do polling, they tend to you that are the only poles in the world and promote their poles some news order better or worse about it and others times and generals a place where alike. Your time is something in your times you to make sure you knew that in your times that it and so those putting a lot of attention, but they are also really good poles. They are a plus rated poles partnership between our friends at the upshot at your times, Sierra and you haven't had any rigorous highquality polls- is only states like Pennsylvania, for example, and something that I think is a good use of, could use a polar on balance and something that clear mention and something that you alluded to is the possibility,

or a reversion to the main does something we talk about all the time on this podcast. But if you look back at President's approval ratings throughout history and what you can do on five thirty, its website, where we show trumps approval rating is not like always a story of member version. Sometimes the bottom just falls out, as was the case with George W. As was the case with George each W Bush and the situation in the case of each w was fashion, and in the case of w was, I guess, the war in Iraq Katrina and then a recession, sometimes a bottom falls out and there is no mean reversion, so considering that we're in a pandemic that is going to be affecting our wives through the election, and I think we can safely say at this point- is there an argument to me that we should be considered? the the possibility of a bottom falling out just as much as we should be considering a reversion to the mean sure

I mean no one's ever going to oil. I talk about that because you know that incentives are all to be. Oh, my god, you know the poles and even be trusted anymore. Right turn fundamentally should be pretty careful ripe, but yeah there possibility that like I'm coming by more than his head currently impulse, that's possible. I mean, I think, hard earlier mentioned, like can no longer in the era of electoral landslides and that's kind of an open question when you more partisanship. Now there are fewer sling voters and so like so Oh, you know if Herbert Hoover running for re election today, although backing for thirty is actually have fairly high polarization then as well right, but you know, but Would a twenty point landslide in an era polarization translate into it. Twelve point and slide today or something, maybe you somethin like that. I'm not sure exactly but sure I mean if the if a pandemic is out of control. Again

more trumps getting worse during a period when things are and gradually better on the current virus front? another getting worse again maybe we'll get better than by November, but like yeah, the possible at this thing just sticks with us. All year, at least through the late fall? so pretty negative development for a trump, especially because we kind of condition The economic stimulus and kind of this no implicitly or explicitly that like ok, well, we'll have a wave in the spring and then by the summer then it'll be over. Our will have said screw it like normal again anyway right the second I can possibility, is still possibly true but like, but you know, if you have people play to spend money in the economy? Want things are opener now, there's no more stimulus right when you dont want, is to be as a restaurant that has no customers and also stimulus They could get, for example, in states where there is currently no spread and saw it.

Kind of all at all a big mass and by the waiting time you lower expectations that created come back later on right, expectation there now pretty low for how well trample do which could make you know closing the gap from now Points to six point seem: oh, my gosh Trump is making a comeback ripe, but but yeah certainly as numbers here trumps. Approval was forty two most of twenty around forty two most of twenty nineteen early this year so is down to forty right now. So George W Bush, ended it about thirty percent approval. So if I had to bear my, it would be more is the trumpets bitch,

who was worldview. Forty two then twenty nine on election day, but I is there a case for being thirty. Five, I think did actually could be. Were those sort of a gradual, slow, dropping off point, but the innovative becomes fairly noticeable. We sort of key tracking and its thirty six and thirty seven is thirty. Five deaths seems to me in the range about building because I think you're seeing a lot of Republicans. The elite level cannot jumping off and saying I've had enough of it. I'm breaking with him, and I think it's getting easier to do that. As not only looks like he's going to lose and people want to be awful losing losing ship and also because it he's doing things that are getting more erratic than they used to be It also really thinks you saying the tweets over the weekend. All these things individually, don't matter all these things together might give people bite and, as of now

being interesting is not thinking about a controversial things which have your republic enemies? Maybe I can give us elections. I keep saying this hour weeks on board will Herbie say before, but I do think there's a case that the landslide is worth considering, because tromp is getting slightly more unpopular. Maybe that continues and the election day we're too, where georgian taxes are actually winnable states whereby the land sites sure publicans when they're talking about the Senate, you know I could say fine, we lose that you know whatever trump. You know pleases narrowly, but we keep the Senate when people start to feel freaked out about like what they perceived to be a safe chamber, then I think you you you start to see a little bit more self. Reservation, a racial in kicking in the things that people say behind closed doors, kind of making it into the open ere the owl fresco. If we're talking about our day in and govern nineteen.

See a lot like take that take the bounties that that that the Russians have apparently been putting on american soldiers. In Afghanistan, and The story broke in Canada isn't reflects super well on trumped because remember always friends with Putin and you could see Trump generally getting front of some microphones and saying some ill advised complimentary things about Putin, who's. Trying to you know what gets a foe referred an passed in his country? So you can stay president for life. Basically, like you can see there being another, like many scandal that sinks trumps approval numbers even more and that makes establishment Republicans you no smell. Our heads in despair even more like there's lots of stuff, he could do an imagined scenarios were trumped. Does stuff that shakes people's sort of belief in his leadership ability is even more

economy. You know you look at those. Those pulling numbers and people are still Amsterdam more approving of his handling of the economic state of things. But if we get you know if these These waves of of illness continue to come. What is mean for the: U S, economy, not nothing good right, so even that is, it is a very you know it's a foundation of sand. These poles in Iowa in Georgia, and that's a big story to me- is like these sinnott poles like. If I did not think the Democrats had much of it. She, I would have said, is below fifty percent. The Democrats we descended before, I think, is probably, in my view, closer look at it. In my region I stated in party it looks can I or by me pretty well and

can assume pretty well. Those do the us off. Numbers in Georgia looks like the Democrats be compared, and I went there to win their states, but it, but the map to the Democrats, women senators is a lot clear. Arizona Colorado would, like their winds, were sure North Carolina, very competitive means where competitive Montana very competitive. I do see that I mean I do think. The landslide scenario matters a lot because a landslide in which the Democrats also give the two sentences is a really big story for governing, for policy for the country yeah. I still have you know, I'm thinking back to sixteen- and there was a period of time where their tons of news stories about how Clinton was going to win this potential. And slide- and I do remember us talking some democratic strategists. On the sidelines about. I don't know where maybe a nervous about certain places are certain demographics. More than than those stories might indicate. So I'm so I'm always a little bit that stuff is kind of in the back of my mind,

this election. I don't think you know, I think trumps performance and leadership, which will continue to be doubted by people to me. What the big question marks this election- it's true, in a largely in potentially a largely vote by male election, its confusion about the administration. It's all you more people register like we'll stay Georgia. This potential you swing state that did have a big uptake and voter registration will something really Sudan to happen there with new people voted, I dont know they're. So many unknown the administration of this election, that that that to me is kind of this. Its both during an fascinating, because no one likes to think about the actual way that we write in valets and cast paper Alex a huge differences here and it's where there's tons of validity. She's going on so, I think, is important. His eyes. The poles are of ethnic and electorate, we're assuming people get to vote where

when they get devoting a fair process. We have to mean the their assuming composition of the electorate. That will mean that minority to devote and everything is on the way they have a force. Obviously, if, like the some reason that the voting process of is disrupted, that's going to mean the poles are all off in a certain way. That's like worth its deadly we're thinking, but I would say, though, that the number Suggest Democrats right now should not be worried about new voters are voter registration of that kind of thing, because the data we have now suggest Trump is by is doing well these sort of traditional pool of voters like Biden is losing buying is much better than Clinton among seniors among people city by among white scenes, with equally like his black numbers and up his numbers among blacker than other tickly great isn't recently, nor even as a sort of fine like he's doing better among sort of wider and and and more conservative, to some extent an older voters, and that kind of- and I assume, there's no republican waiter like right. The rules are voting, the barn

white seniors from voting, as most people will vote for the Republicans. But I think that factors the way Biden is winning right. Now is a way that is like to me sort of makes it may The hard to sort of rigour in any way to make it harder for buying twin assuming everyone gets the vote again. Yeah. That's one of the take away from the kind of onslaughts of poles that we saw last week was the particular parts of the electorate that are shifting towards Biden and how that affecting individual states, and therefore the gap between the national policy and the electoral college me I'm interested in your take away after last week. Is there still a gap between the National Poles and the tipping point state. I e the state that would win binder trump, the Electoral College Well, maybe it that less than who would have thought a yours? ago

one set of state were trumpets, clearly losing more ground. It seems then he is nationally. Is in these working class upper neighbour states so with some Michigan clear typing in Pennsylvania, but it's kind of often Montana, with their group as well as Florida. I think, because Agnes is doing well development, older voters when its related the pandemic or knowledge, because older people, like Joe Biden, not entirely clear but like those forced Florida Michigan Pennsylvania was There are probably the most important stage for electoral college, and so that's where binds may more Danes, then probably has narrowed that gap. A bit these can pretty when he states to remember. If you have you today, even if the poles are canadian remotely close them, when by a lot right, so the electoral college math doesn't matter what happens over. The back toward trot. Maybe those states would be they can be swinging elastic as we call it. They might shift back a fair bit but yet

by coalition now looks what kind of a hybrid of Obama's coalition and twenty eight twelve, which performed quite efficient electoral college verses but an coalition appointed extreme, which did almost as well popular vote, but obviously disaster for democratic electoral college wise. So the fact It is doing well among a little better older whites and working class whites and maybe actually not as well as foot among Hispanics. For example, that may actually be better for them right, college than the twenty sixth, so one question that we talk to decent amount about two thousand. Sixteen was whether the people who really want into Clinton in the primaries came around during the general. Is there any Jason from the polling that we see so far that Sanders supporters or supporters any other candidate for that matter.

Coming around to bite in and now planning on voting for him in higher numbers than say they voted for Clinton in two thousand. Sixteen I mean Many centres supporters as imperative for you, go right, which medium expect because now Center supporters are more diehards opposed, like all the people who opposed you know there he might not do as well as a sheriff their supporters, but still this makes sense. This is like getting very method right. Yes, The centres of borders are a small group of people so biting when more votes, but still when a smaller portion of the Sanders voters is our design right. Yeah but look I'm in the very fact that you since colonel personally pillar stories that protest. You haven't seen as much in fact because usually would have months and months of recriminations about how this primary go and who is reaching out to who right. You know, sir. It seems like there is no uniform, Anti Trump Spirit,

among Democrats and liberals if you're not pissed off as a liberal, about corona virus near probably pissed off about how Trump has reacted. Protests, and you know my name, abusing to say black lives matter, and the fact that the economy, is not in very good shape. To say the least right you, law to be worried about you know, so I think that kind of this may be subsumed the usual in fighting. Yet no, he's going to say that, like oh, the sickness electorate aren't that high. So we can afford to cast a protest vote. Right no one can it say that I don't think I'll be taken seriously in democratic circles. I would say I was. I was doing a story about black voters. The data suggests that the enthusiasm and protect the privilege, turnout, levels or Biden are higher for black voters over forty five under forty five. So does not shocking because it goes the idea there is some how well the map on black young voters to send

voters- and I think this gives you mitigation. Citing biden- has a little less enthusiasm, people under thirty five, they still may vote and they level providing. But I think there is a real impact here like if your Biden, the ideals we'll be there if there's some kind of vice president again and who would excite the people under thirty five, but not annoyed people over forty five, where the bigger part, the electorate, there would be an ideal pick. Of course I don't Stacy Rooms, Elizabeth Warrant or calmly Harris do both those things once they might a noise and people older or or nine or not. That is inspired by her younger, but I think that there is some sedated Biden. Is the candidate Kennedy older Democrat and that's it. Finally, like that might be the better option, the candidate for the younger Democrat, whose maybe struggle with the older partly lecture before we go. You brought up the race for the Senate, Clare and Perry. We did get new Senate polling last week, along with the state

I suppose so I just want to focus on that a little back before we go, you know. Has it got to the point where GEO Peace, senators feel calm? in competitive, raises, feel comfortable breaking with Trump And if so, who wear in me Colorado, Georgia, Montana, Arizona, etc. Are we seeing candidates and competitive races start to think that they need a charter on path? When you talk to people Bout Senate races in competitive states. This strategy is always every candidate to essentially read the room in his locality rate. We a lot about this in twenty eighteen embracing the president and he is trying to push him away. You know that you talked about Martha Mc Sally in, in Arizona Alot. Who is this kind of more establishment republic? Kin kind of more

straight laced and she sort of it was likely. Awkward, hug of trout raided, didn't quite sit as well, and I think the calculus in twenty twenty is potentially pretty different where peace might focus more on the pandemic politics of their state and sort of a I'm looking out for your interest in Washington. So you saw Collins is definitely doing some of the usual dancing away from tromp. She voted against judicial Domini couple weeks ago. I think she will because she's in a state owned by a no win sure so How are we going to do some of that? I actually think that you're gonna see more Republican, incineration and house racist tried this themselves from tromp is just more unpopular and I think that's probably a mistake, my senses. There were in a Europe in which partisanship party alignment is pretty strong and the Republicans are whatever

morals of this are better off trying to do everything possible to get shrunk back to forty three percent approval, as opposed to saying is gone, but I'm gonna win my raised. His arms are brilliance every politician in twenty eighteen, pretty much every house how problems in a swing district lost in a lot of them did a lot of dancing. The shredder show how in Pinta they weren't, it didn't work, and so I think you are Miss Mc Connell's doing Mr Elles running out of these were but his own racist robbery and win his own recent misrule. Conall is very strongly defending tromp pretty at all times my guess is Miss Mcconnell has thought about the republican bran itself. He was no, when bushes Downport sector, party down and my guess- is Mcconnell decided we do you mean ports romped give him back to forty three are so so we don't lose every synod race, which is whether and which are poisoning right now, see your kind of

arguing against the AIDS idea that people would ticket split at all Yes, I am suggesting that is less, maybe in Maine I dont like an obviously in western media. That happens. It happens in some cases. I think it may, I think we'd I think this there is tender overestimate their ability, differences themselves from the president, I mean I do think, like fates like Iowa or I who's gonna five, as arising STAR Energy appeal, the sudden pole show I closer, so George clothes, they show penny. Who would be the nominated Kansas, close right, I'm on it pressure. Actually famers Pemberton NATO states, but, like those are bit of kind of canary the call my types of races where You would imagine that a fairly deep number, I can feel vulnerable right now and you know one nearest the downward spiral be it for trumpet me if they say: ok, we're actually better off cutting bait and saying: you now, we need you to provide checks about again against Joe Biden,

liberal leftist a That will happen without programme. So did I've been at all in two thousand. Sixteen I'm trying to think about the calculus that you guys are describing between you know. If republican senators do break with tromp, then maybe that has the effect of Trump going further in the polls, depressing Republican turn out even more and then screwing then themselves, the senators in the long run. So I mean what, how did I begin senators governors representatives in the House straddle this when things were looking really bad for Trump and two thousand sixty If I'm not mistaken, I feel like I'm having a brain farther Democrats actually gained seat in the house and twenty. Sixteen right, which is a unusual for when a party loses the presidency, I haven't had a very bad, your and twenty fourteen, and so you gonna have every down from that. Look, I know I mean officer the trifecta is in play this year. For Democrats in particular, maybe for both parties and you'd homer

chickens, are negligent. Concerned like we were discussing like at various points, the power There is ok, but what are the chances that, like medical for all would actually pass out of it. Chances are at I wish you would have thought before ripe magic. There. Very low, because there are not that many and our two, who necessarily endorsement to care for all, but like its power, You could have a giant majority in the house, fifty four to fifty five. Democratic sadder, some of whom are willing rather filibuster and by having one you know in Georgia and states like that. It's a really blew looking now right now, parties, if Please took a lot of little capital Obama in two thousand and people, are not necessarily gotten that much mileage out of it? But if you had that's a scenario. Then then you might exe. Biden and Democrats to squeeze one or two.

Major piece of legislation out of that, and then a pretty ambitious agenda for what that might constitute, and so so he how the stakes are. The eye, if you're, if you worried about about. Setting an office in and securing a lot of power. I mean nothing job. I met you're lucky has a big mandate. It may not be as personality to push that that far, but between act that everything is gonna, be kind of shambles. It is from a but like a lot of people maybe reset, is a lot of repair work to do on the infrastructure of the economy after Covin you there could be some big changes afoot if Democrats to get this upside intermittent upsetting, earn the moral scenario but the upside scenario, winning by large margins what they you thinking about in this regard. Is it's easy to say this now hindsight is twenty twenty, but if the demo,

let's have a well known, high quality candidate, in national fund raising Base in Georgia in Texas, though extremely useful to them. Right now is opposed them. Trying to like runs out of unknowns and get those we will over the line, and so we had to people it would have been those candidates run for president in one of the river VP in a sort of getting this appears mediating, nowhere plus getting our friend a beta essays Abrams, and I do think that those that Georgians, this in areas. Firstly, because it looks to me like that Biden has guided us a lot of money trying to win those states and that the party is not going to either. But I think if Bedouin Abrams are running, they have their own basis They can raise money. Thank desolate good, I'm very much right now. The story to me is less is body to win,

more is buying gonna win. This huge, landslide is visiting. Inundating George in Texas would be the landslides and area. Ninety meters lightly looks like he might not win those states in part, because the parties not invest enough money in them and its right to be a genuine democratic politicians. Here, who is a big name and twenty eighteen. Better better campaign manager is now vital campaign manager yeah has has anyone checked on vat? I recently I love you can set up a decided is around for enough. Well, let's leave things there. Thank you name. Thank you gave him. Thank you. Clare thinks Galen and thank you very, very scale my name is Galen Drink, Tony Chow is in the virtual control room you can get in touch. My emailing us at podcast set five thirty, eight dot com. You can also force treated us we're questions or comments. Friend of the show leave us a reading or review in the apple pie, cast store or tell someone about us thanks for listening,

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