Saga home to our wives and children. I have to get home to my large potted treaty, hello and welcome to this late night Super Tuesday reaction edition of the five thirty politics podcast, I'm Galen droop. It was a big night for Joe Biden at that I am we are recording. Here is what the results look like Alabama for by organs, offer Biden, Massachusetts, forbidden, Minnesota, forbidden, North Carolina, forbidden, Oklahoma Biden, Tennessee Biden, Virginia Biden Mean and taxes have still not been called, nor has California we have Colorado for Sanders Utah for Sanders. Vermont for standards. Now it looks like taxes is gonna, be too close to call for a while, but Biden is up in Maine and Sanders is up by a significant margin in California by far the biggest prize of the night here with me to discuss these,

gods are seen about its rider Clem alone. You I'm gonna, kill Managing editor make a common area, I'm good. If you had to bet right now, for what it's worth, I think you'd, better on Bernie winning California biding eking out tax this and the main, maybe binding, eking out to fair enough before I ask you as President AL just note that need is upstairs on the tally, so he is here were thus he's on duty for ABC News for the rest of the evening, but we're going to want, for results from tonight have another podcast and will be able to die. Into the data even further, but since rob and it's late We definitely want to talk about the results so far as they seem significant. So maybe we can start with taxes. He brought it up mega and we can work our way back from their. How does the turn out? Look there,

How is the vote coming down, and why do you say that if you had a bad you'd give it to buy? So ok, let me back into answering that question a little bit. The overriding theme, I think we ve seen in results tonight is that Joe Biden is killing it in among the late deciding voters right. People decided who'd of support in the last few days in states where most of the vote happen today. That's whereby

did his best Virginia, for example, right state where there was a lot of our leave voting. California, that's where Sanders did better or actually that we're Bloomberg did better to right, because I think the results today, an exit polls confirmed what we saw in the polls in the last forty eight hours, which is a big swing to bite it we're seeing that in Texas to so in a Texas result, Sanders jumped out into an early led biting his kind of been clause, his way back the whole time. In some ways, though, I think Texas, Texas is one of the most important states to vote on to produce day, but it is also a kind of the least representative of some of the patterns we ve seen today, one of acting

so one of the big storylines I think we'll see coming out of tonight, is that there is a big split in the Democratic Party right now among hispanic voters who are largely going to Sanders and black voters were largely going to bite him, and so in Texas Those are somewhat bout that obviously large his hispanic population taxes boss, also pretty large black population and it sort of somewhat equally Fully balanced, so we are seeing the same trend were seeing nationally, but they're just cancel each other out as our that I'll bet, our overwhelming store, that's a better way, Divine coming out of exact Clare. Clearly, things happen. As might decide in the past forty hours towards Biden, why we're happened? Well, you know, I I think we said this in some of our. You know: pre Super Tuesday and Pre South Carolina content that South Carolina was kind of. You know the Ceta,

for Super Tuesday, and I I have to say you know Joe Biden certainly a long time figure in the Democratic Party, but his sort of standing looks to be turned and tonight is very much a democratic party team effort, There was just a cascade of endorsements yesterday on Monday well whatever day, and it is right now that's about two days ago there, a cascade of endorsements for buying from people in all corners of the party. I just from Buddha, judging CALL Bashar who dropped out from celebrities. It was as if the Biden team it really been on the phone over the weekend and kind of sang. Look at. We didn't South Carolina. We prove to weaken. You know when with are base a black voters, now bring it home

some of you in the establishment are scared of Bernie Sanders. The nominee you gotta call us and to me it. It's really. Lessons learned, I think, by the democratic establishment about the GEO peas. Twenty six teams, prime disaster where they live, drag on until May of twenty. Sixteen in Indiana, when Trot basically, finally clenched it yeah and just to expand on that. A bunch of things went right. Fur Biden in the past that's right? Wasn't just it was to South Carolina Win and then Buddha Judge, enclosure dropping out and endorsing him and then the all the other endorsements right combined with. I think you know up a pretty favourable set of states for him on on Super Tuesday, but just to like to put a fine point on how big the swing was. You know so by

swept the south. Basically right and you can imagine a world in which we were talking about to produce day, and I was like alibis what the South but Sanders killed it in the west and the MID West and New England right that that was what it looked like a week ago, but just Scully voted for a lie. But if you look at the exit polls- and you just look at white voters, fifty two percent of white voters who decided in the last few days voted for by only twenty one percent who'd who decided before that, backed him so and in Massachusetts, assertive like that that encapsulated so that's exactly right. So that number is what explains why Biden was able to, I think, not Pretty surprising winds in Minnesota Massachusetts right. Those are states that dont have big black populations,

and so our import and again we are talking about this on a lie: bog, but ok, wise to why. Why was tonight good forbidden. He'll rack up a lot of delegates, although exactly what the delegate picture looks like we'll have to wait too long I'm because so many are in California, and the other thing we have to wait to see is who else gets over the fifteen percent threshold. That'll be a big factor in deciding exactly so like that picture is actually still fuzzy, but tonight was a really good night for bite in because he gets like a narrative. When right sure, but also like he shut He could win in the Midwest, he showed it could win in the northeast. He had shown that before. So that's like a new thing, he he has shown here the coalition that not just in the south yeah I mean you said that it would have been easy to see this narrative two weeks ago. That Biden sweeps the south, but even in Virginia for example, that was called as soon as poles closed there and just

four weeks ago, that was a neck and neck raise over the weekend it looked like Biden was pulling ahead. Then we got this kind of outlier pool where Biden was twenty points ahead and then closed it. With a thirty point. I had margin like that's kind of how fast this all chain I mean it is, I think tonight has really I didn't already know it. Tat is really solidified for me. Just sort of the publication of a certain class of democratic voters a lot of those those white, probably college, educated voters that you are talking about in Minnesota Massachusetts Mica, I mean just truly the kind of going with the sort of who whose who's up in the polls I'm in a vote for them, and I think that you know and we haven't, really mentioned that much yet and it's you know pretty surprise in giving given the strength of our campaign for most of the past year, is Elizabeth Warrant. I mean I treated this earlier again. We ve said that delegate cancer are gonna fluctuate.

Currently Elizabeth Worn has fewer delegate's than PETE Buddha Judge who has dropped out of the race added. At is stunning marine stunning You know the Massachusetts when is just like a real name, often- and you saw her, get on tv, pretty prettier it's a night and basically, take a please your conscience, Michigan she was in Detroit, you know, don't fall into the Elect corn quote: elect trap but I really just think you're seeing a lot of Democrats, no matter how liberal, say a woman probably can't win. I want to ask probably going to be something that we hear from the Santos camp in the coming days, then worn was something of a spoiler in Massachusetts and Minnesota. A potentially those upsets where we really didn't expect bite into. When is that a fair assessment would essentially warns. Voters have gone

voted for Bernie Sanders. Is that straightforward not necessarily I mean I think we ve talked a lot on this pod about how ideology in kind of identity? Don't exactly line up this time around. So if you're, a war and voter, even worn and sanders sharing ideological world view. You wouldn't necessarily vote for Sanders. You share, more of an establishment dna and therefore Castro ballot for Biden, which has caused so I don't know it's it's. It is an interesting even they make the argument for in the sinners camp. But I don't think it's it's quite clear cut. You it's a little trick. You write like I didn't who's gonna, win Massachusetts by six points or thereabouts right election. That close, in a war and got twenty one percent of the vote there, an election that close without warning. The race would Sanders upon their probably

I would guess, maybe but war and was in the race bike. You know you can I dont get to do or a red and also outside of Massachusetts. You know and is gonna end up winning Minnesota by like nine Oklahoma by thirteen. You know that starting to get into margins, where I think it's harder to make to the spoiler argument, but look I do think that is one of the big question marks coming out of, is what say that Bloomberg who did pretty terribly tonight drops out in endorses. I then let's say Warren drops out and endorses Sanders. I'm nothing that'll happen both just pretend that what does the race look like in a week? You know, I think that an open question, I don't think we should matter, super Tuesday being like well buttons got. This thing gets right eye,

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With over three hundred businesses, Untruss pilot and hurried, upstart dot com slashed politics to find out how low your upstart rate is? Checking you re only takes a few minutes again. That's upstart dot, slash politics we're back and continuing from the question you just posed. Mica we do not have our forecasts live yet. So we can talk about how super Tuesday change things based on that not, but given what we know so far does binding this thing in the bag, I mean no, the state of the primary race overall yeah think knows the Kurds, the correct answer. I mean we ve that That was Bloomberg like what happened to Limburg after tonight. I think there's again we're recording this it it's twelve twenty on Wednesday morning,

campaign has given some indications that I'll speak I'll, say gonna. Make me think he might drop out tomorrow or today, Wednesday and potentially in Spiten, thus throwing millions and millions of dollars behind Bygones campaign right wing is much much more of a wild card. Her campaign has said you know until today or till today, she's in it through the convention. Now that would either be the truth. It could be. Tuesday, posturing and there actually gonna kind. Do you know sort of fudge their way, come tomorrow whatever or she could potential drop out pretty soon and kind of have. This choice between Do I endorse Sanders? Do I not do I endorsed by? Do I not endorse any? What I think the thing it's interesting, but the thinking about who Elizabeth Warren, if she dropped out who she would endorse, is

She endorsed Hillary Clinton and twenty sixteen over, many sanders, which says more about her, like establishments, DNA she I am particularly like Joe Biden personally is my sense, given their sort of history of friction She certainly has seems to like Bernie, have more ideologically in common with him, so you know, but maybe maybe she has the same, elect ability concerns that that other Democrats do so I think she's actually in the high profile endorsements category of things she- Is this really interesting figure? You're? Absolutely just as in the when in actual primary, she represented something of a middle ground along some factors between Sanders and and binding. I think that's what makes her such an interesting potential potential endorse. Her or unity candidate at the convention

you had a potentially congested convention, which is something that they have floated or that or that so so that actually, in addition to like ok, what would the race, if its truly just Biden, First Sanders? What does that look like that? I think one big question the other, because I think that all come out of out of super to say is not really. Ok does bottom. Have this thing in the bag, but like can bite and get to a doubt, delegate, majority by the end of these voting contests, or does he have to rely on making an argument that, even if he does not a majority, he should get the nomination based on support other people have delegates, Sir, having the plurality etc know exactly and if like. If it's ok, so we had, if, if, if Biden is tracking towards towards like a strong plurality, I think that argument is relatively easy to make. I dont think you know, I think, put it

A binding would have a easier time making that argument that Sanders, because he has establishment support. I think the party would rally behind him. If, though, Super Tuesdays, followed by, Sanders reels off a bunch of wind sanders, winds, Michigan, let's say then I think we are headed for no gets a majority, and this is a super food for. Do you think we're being a little to tap at I'm trying to imagine if needs over we're at this table, I feel like he might be more bullish on bite and considering stately Florida, a very by me date, New York implied in a seemingly Biden state. You know, New York doesn't have when primary you can only vote. If you are registered Democrat in the primary in New York, it seems like a lot of the remaining states with a lot of delegates are by Pennsylvania. You know one of his home states. Pretty sympathetic to Biden I mean: are we

in two tepid here, while fighting all much, I think what I Philip are being pretty bullish on Biden so I'd. I dont think I mean a week ago bite was like in a lot of trouble and now we're saying, probably bought by news. The front runner is the front runner period. By is the front runner. In writing as the front, I think, coming out of a super to say by minors, Africa, but we could go. We said we. We we in your body else, hearing centres fits Anders is to lose. Let that be a little cautious look. We had this interactive primary pass tool on on the website that uses our forecasts, but not our forecasts right, basically, it uses are forecast as a starting point, and then you can choose ok, who one each state and update the forecast right That is a simplified version of what the actual forecasts does to actual forecasts, looks at margin Babo. If you fill out, the scorecard

tonight. What it shows is bide in on track to just get over one thousand nine hundred and ninety one punch delegates, in other words on track to just clinch a majority. A pledge target of coursers error band around that right, but the flip side of that is Sanders. Isn't really anywhere close to two on track, and so in that sense Europe These are combining clinched denomination can he win with a strong plurality? Is there more muddled results in two out of three of those yeah. I mean I keep on thinking back to just how hump Pivotal South Carolina seem to have been an n a guy the thing we will never know is, would Biden still have had such a strong, showing on super to say if he hadn't one South Carolina by such walk away margins.

About the habitats. What if he had what if he had one TAT Carlyle by walk away margins, but Boojum Club retired, to drop out. There there wasn't a virus or Psmith. Yes, there are so many interesting variables that went into camp, the one eighty degree turn in this who's. The frontrunner narrative there's also a story that beginning to be reported out now about the machinations of the party in terms of four, President Barack Obama's involvement Harry reads: involvement in getting closure and Buddha judge to drop out and basic corralling the party behind Biden, which is an interesting test of the party, decides theory which we talk about a lot on this podcast and it seems like this would be the best example we have of the party deciding in this primary

so far it would be like I joked earlier, I was like. Are we sure the authors of the party decides didn't like hack into the universe, its annual Rhine in many like sitting in a single day? Here, it's more like. Thirty, six, our thirty six hours in the Party decide LEO that's it. This is also why would they have done that? Had we not seem too, Take the nomination We can win the nomination despite all of the republican establishment just four years ago. I did they kind of watch that and learn from yeah how they should be absolutely yeah, I think, has clear said earlier. I think they watched Republicans who were against tromp was

their hands and delay Dolly and we're like oh shit. We can't do that and I continue I've said is for awhile, like the comparisons that the comparisons between twenty sixteen and twenty twenty are there, but those sort of like one to one trop versus Sanders in and the parties relation to them is kind of facile. I think because It's it's it's. It's totally different situation. I think you sort of see, what's in intimated surprising, that the Democratic Party has shown more cohesion than the Republican Party, given its history as in essence. It the big to any kind of like lots of factions, and it's it's been really striking to see all of those people come together and you have to think we will. We will see the centre in the coming days that there are things happening behind the scenes figures of Import

perhaps doing some back channel and were also now going to get to see what the anti establishment backlash to all of that looks like yeah sure we'll be there. Bernie Sanders had a little be big them's fightin words kind of speech and I I was sitting next to you. Mike I kind of turned- and I said I mean he's like he's. Basically just now. Gonna. Do the lake unity speech ever right. Like he's? Never bees not necessarily doing the pie. It too? I am your. I am the candidate for all of you in this party and we can all work together to it, was kind of like nobody thought. I Do it and some other candidates in this primary for for the war in Iraq, inner likely flaws. I note that the trend, can't do it now. It doesn't make any site that exact. If he was gonna, do it it would have enlightened dinner after about Nevada, Nevada, I said a right and

I may be they did. Maybe they you know they said some things in that direction. Maybe there were behind the scenes, Sanders people trying to try during all the party? Clearly it it did not work, but can I can I just give one other caution about race. I do think most it like but Sanders is still gonna end up doing really well like out west right he's going to end up doing you no pretty decently. If you look at all the results, Sanders will have a good record in, like the Southwest Texas is going to end up being really close sandwich one. The New England Northeast. I think it is so has a mixed record so far Sanders one New Hampshire, Vermont, Odyssey Homestake Neighbour, Home State Biden, will well and up with probably main Massachusetts.

And then the MID West is also relatively close right. Minnesota Biden is gonna end up winning, but not by a ton, and we have Michigan so like when you describe it that way, it doesn't sound like running away with things right. One thing I do, though, want to bring up, because I think it's important when it comes to how we structure our democracy topic I like to talk about is the places where Sanders has over perform. War in Iowa and Nevada, which both have Caucasus, which favour Canada to have super enthusiastic supporters right, and so, if good it, organizing and getting your supporters out there and your support enthusiastic you're gonna pull over perform in caucus estates. Tonight we had all primaries, except for American, some, our Bloomberg one so There is also a question of ease. The primary is just more suited to bite in coups coalition is

their answer. Not is likely to go to a caucus and perhaps less enthusiastic, more voting based on strategy and wanting you know the court and core electable candidate. I mean that's clearly the case right? I think Minnesota prove the Minnesota Neighbours Iowa, there's a lot of commonality sort of culturally clay demographically between those two states and by he's gonna, win Minnesota by nine and got crushed Minnesota, which had a primary as you said, and got crushed, and I were Caucasus. Part of that is when it happened, but also, I think, by clearly just as better and primary. So we have a lot of data from tonight. Exit polls from fourteen different. It's an american Samoa and I'm sure on our website. We're gonna be digging through all of it in the days and weeks to come, so encourage people to go check it out, but before we do leave, are there any other trends that we saw tonight that are worth bringing up that? Maybe your curious about looking into further

Resurging reporting out in you know over the course of this primary their summits We talked about the racial gaps earlier between black voters and latino voters backward favouring Biden Letty. Letters favouring sanders generally there's some interesting gender gap. That we're seeing women favouring Biden over Sanders, and I think that this sort of young old, gap is a perpetual one in the democratic primary I mean Bernie Sanders Justice much much better. With young voters and- and I was to be as were sitting here and I'm reading some. I love it when people transcribe, but cable pundits are saying good NEWS for us apparently, David Plus, who is who is Obama's. Strategist, said well he's gonna really need to break. You know get alot of young volunteers in and in that

will be a project for them, because it is not. I mean he in, and I think you know talking to their campaign like this in this form particularly when I was reporting a story on Biden Day. Were somewhat Europe people that I talk to you, that, the campaign German. When I talk to him, he said he was kind of like well young voters kind of Jones, honest, that there were like struggles had happened before and we kind of like laid the pathway for them. There's a certain attitude shift that, I think perhaps has to happen within the Biden campaign. More or you know, campaigns have you're right you're. Not you not. I think that's gonna involve a lot of targets. I would appear I mean I think this is were kind of looking at the ok, Boomer Electioneering

the army we saw in taxes in Dallas last night, better come out on stage and give the final speech of the night right after Biden spoke. Baddow gave the last speech, and was in our speaking in Spanish and getting much louder. Applause than Biden had gotten during his speech, so I think he is going to rely on characters like that to try to boost youth enthusiasm, we'll see if it works. I think that's right. Clare stole my answer, basically to two: what I'm looking for age? ace, and gender and ideology are like very clear. Dividing lines in this rays and I would be super curious and I hope we can look into like all our voters, the democratic primary like you know how, in Congress, ideologically Republicans and Democrats are now more distinct from each other than they have ever been. There used to be a lot of overlap. You know I,

nerve along those demographic fault lines. In the democratic primary we ve seen like a separation between those groups more than impasse, primaries embassy. There was some pretty clear for London. Twins extend the other thing I have I just will. We will be digging into is to delegate picture. This is a rare

automatic, gonna be about dollar gets. You know some some fairly minor differences and where candidates finnish, where could make a big difference in how many delegates they get, and so I think that that that'll be the thing will be digging into over the next couple days, hopefully also by the way, what turned the model back on hopefully sometime MID day after tomorrow, so blacker and just as a final update before we leave my guy looks like things are trending in the direction that you forecasted right now, according to the New York Times, needle, there is a seventy one percent chance that Biden wins taxes and their forecasting just a two point: margin their bite and also still looking like he's gonna pick up main and, of course, Santer still doing very well up ten points in California than the new

the the near times does something I'd love, which is tat chain, translator, probabilities into into just a phrase. So, according to the New York Times, as of twelve thirty, five, a m on Wednesday much fourth Bernie Sanders is put pretty likely to win California bite in is quote quite likely to win main and Texas is quote leaning Biden, I dont really am not able to. Distinguish what exactly those three different delegation need, but you need both. You mean I like that they give the number and end a sort of, like you know, phrase to help people places it's almost like when I characterized erases at the top of the show. I was looking at the needle and that's where I was basing this. Those judgments are well, I think,

That's a wrap for now and I'll just remind everybody listening that if you do want to watch this podcast and not just listen to it, you can do that on our Youtube channel to go subscribe to five hundred and thirty. Eight on Youtube and watch as I like half past midnight and we're all doing pretty well, at least look pretty good for our past midnight. Also get somebody. I beg you to plan, so Satan are well thanks. Outcry, thanksgiving thanks MIKE I thank you my name is gave under twenty chow is in the control room. You can get in touch. My emailing us podcast set five thirty eight dot com. You can also, of course, treated us with questions, bore comments if you're a fan of the show, leave us a rating or review in the Apple podcast store. I can tell it. We ve picked up some new, listen So if you are a new listener, go rate or of yours or tell someone about us, get your friends to listen to us as well. Thanks for listening animals,

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