We're talking about conceit, somebody consistency in the north of England, where they haven't. This is anything but labour since nineteen twenty two, so This is a realignment on a really different scale hello and welcome to this british election special of the five thirty eight politics podcast, I'm Galen droop. Yes, we generally stick to american politics, but we ve checked in on british politics from time to time over the past year and is big NEWS to check on yesterday's election in the UK resulted in a major victory for the conservative party. They exceeded expectations, winning at least as seventy eight seat majority in parliament. Picking up seats that have long voted. For labour. This now paves the way for Prime Minister Boris Johnson to secure a deal to take Britain out of the European Union. So here with me to discuss everything that happened and wants to come are to prefer

there's that regular listeners will be familiar with as our breaks it experts or break spurts. If you well David run, seven is the head of the of politics and international studies. At the University of Cambridge, hello, David and Helen Thompson is a professor in Cambridge Department of Politics and international studies focusing, political economy, hello, how it high Galen. They also hosts the podcast talking politics, which I highly recommend. So I have a lot of questions, but let's begin with this simple one: why was it such a good night for conservative such a bad night for labour? What do you credit you can credit to two things, and each one can be summed up in one word: one of the world's is breaks it. The other way, carbon and they are too about together. It's not totally clear how you separate them out the seats, De Party won They won primarily in the mid middling than the Midlands, as we call it in the north of England. These

almost all breaks at voting seats, but is clear evidence on the ground is anecdotal, but it's also gonna be backed up. I think, in the analysis afterwards that many traditional labour voters in these seats were not prepared to vote for and we call for a range of reasons, some of them to do with breaks it because his position on breaks. It was much clear than Burst Johnson and with boys wanting you knew what you will vote in full and that's the big difference this time. Tourism. Eighty years ago he tried to at the same dynamic. She stood for black satin, party stood for chaos, but it wasn't so convincing than it was more convincing now, but the carbon does have a lot to do with it here. However, I was the BBC last night, and there was plenty of debate over whether to credit breaks it or carbon. Is it clear that one was more responsible than the other things too different ways of looking at it and they use slightly different conclusions. The first ways to say what what were the people who out canvassing for labour here

about most on the doorsteps, from the voters who costs them who brought about. They see. I think the answer is pretty clear. Was carbon? There was talk of. The negativity that they were hearing on it was. This rule also hatred certainly visual dislike, is being expressed by many, labour and former labour and voters It is also clear that if you look aware labour performed most poorly last night it was in the most leave constituencies site I think that at a certain point, the that the two effects enforced each other, because people he who hated carbon because he comes over to them is not. It will also the people who were probably most slightly to have strong views about black, so I'm sure of it. It's gonna take some time to look through the exit polls and the profile of the voters who switched, but at this point

What do we know about who the swing voters were Basically, I would see many over. What we can see so far is working class and lower middle class. Vices in the West millions. They, Midlands than the north it's the north West and the north of wild. Really, the only additional labour area outside the big urban cities that stood up seems to be the one the valley than the south, whilst basically the heartland of the Old South welsh coal industry, other than that labour was sick? doing extraordinarily poorly by historical standards. With these kind of voters who not just themselves, but their families consider themselves labour. Not just in an electoral sense but in some senses a social identity to I'm just one thing, I think the

pulling in the analysis will also show that they will tend to have been older. Voters said the labour vote does seem to have held out well mean turnout is always a question, and it seems that Hannah among young about is slightly down on last time, not massively, but the people did vote those switch from labour conservative, I think, will turn out He predominantly over the age of forty. I think we're gonna hear a lot of hot takes in the? U S, media about whether or not there any conclusions we can draw from the british election about american politics and obviously it's a very different political system facing very different issues, but I know that you also cover american politics show Given what you said about who these swing? Voters were, and similarity is that one These are we draw if they wanted to. How much do you think you can draw a comparison between in what happened last night and the current map, or the current state of american politics

their little ways we could go with this I mean tell him. I have something to say about this. I would be worried about my ping, people into people Nikuman on two cylinders that, but just in systems, very different histories, very different backgrounds, I was struck yesterday by the fact that a cause your Cortez sent her support for Jeremy Carbon explicitly said, this is a youth movement, and this is them. This is a vote needs to come out for young people and saying this for a while there aren't enough young people to win elections. I think there is a lesson here about generation divide in the education divides in our politics hours on yours which are getting more and more acute, they come out and geographical divides to different parts of the country, but when you buy voters down you can see the weather. Aren't you went to college how old you are a key determinant of how you vote and one lesson I would take as a Democrat. Whatever the policy positions are, is you ve got to reach?

cross. That generation divide. I mean, if you don't, if the appeal is limited tube, concentrated on younger voters. You gonna be outnumbered, I think that there is something to be learned for for the Democrats from the fact that, in economic terms, that the local, He moved his fought, the left as it did on the carbon, and this is However, any specific policy, but it all out up to something that simply didn't sound credible having much is not credible, decided fantastical that doesn't there's no is it any government could come in with this kind of programme, and even remotely competently exercise it Even if you can say that individual policies have got a reasonable degree of popular support, then the whole thing adds up to something that just looks like have these. Who lost their minds for me, can audience. What exactly did that economic policy look like well involved, a fair amount of nationalization.

It was going to involve huge amounts of of of borrowing that was going to be directed at a green new deal It was go to at some point, so they seem to move back this position during the course of the election it was going to move involve moving to a four day working week was going to involve an immediate fight. Said increase in for all workers in the public sector, They will go to entirely scrap the reforms to the the benefits. A system, cool called universal credit which is being incredibly problematic and caused a huge lots of of problems, but I think that the idea that you could then simply addressed these problems by scrapping something that has I'm. From good intentions, improve some produce, some disastrous outcomes and that that was somehow make things better. He just didn't to the sense that these people, who had thought through of governing the country through assessed of policy commitments.

I think that it is easy to say is that the things really different note the two things that really different and the just as there is the first of them is that Bernie, Sanders is treated as german colbrand, that's just not like each other, because Bernie Sanders simply does not have the history with policy issues that german carbon I'm having the concert people, the Cubans been wanting to associate himself with over the years. The second thing is is that we had a referendum that initially the majority of Mps in parliament are willing to accept the outcome of a man at a certain point. I'd say some point like last year they became less willing to accept unwanted since to stop the took to prevent the implementation of of bricks, so became an issue about them product politics itself and not isn't there, I think in the case of the United States that you might say it comes into play. If you go down the impeachment, if the Democrats a complete,

you're not really committed an uncompromising way to impeaching Donald Trump. I still think, is quite the same. Unjust the two were homeless thing about the implausible eighty of the programme. It does also cut across the breaks it is she, the John? strategy was to present a stark contrast between a delay. The policy on breaks it, where people understood what it meant that he had a deal and if you elected him, as will now happen, that deal will pass, the House of Commons, and on the lay beside something that was not just for many people confusing. But felt in her here and it's not cleared people how it would happen. Even if you what it was an occasional carbon defended, it quite competently and said it was a clear strategy that how it how it will get through the commons how it would be turned into policy. Of that then chimes with the sense of his a manifesto. Even if you understand it involves being one of the ones hummed and mention free broadband. The nationalization of all

Brandon and making available free. That's easy to understand your broadband will be free, but how people, I think, It does have an instinctive suspicion of things where aid, if they stand, what they did, somehow when it it's too, maybe not just even policy com persons, because, obviously it's a very different context- the left in America not really necessarily compared to the left in Britain, but when it comes to demographic divides like one zero. You're? Talking about David, I was watching the BBC last night and Johnson adviser brought up Pennsylvania in the United States an example of this global electoral change that we're seeing where the white Working Class is backing. Conservatives is that affair can vision to draw that there's some kind of global or western. At least electoral realignment so Whilst that will be. This is a long process. This is something that drama it can recent Margaret Thatcher brought some

white working class over the conservatives the generation ago. I think one of the things that makes it different is What we see in this increasing education divide, so labour did well last night in some places it did well in London It did well in university towns. There is a strong connection here again with breaks. It remain vote. Parts of the country tended to be very close to either universities or places whether a significant number of graduates, and you the Labour Party, still has a strong appeal in those places like sitting in one now. Cambridge Cambridge was if and solid lay behold. Last night like a very labour see now, but it's not, or by any stretch of the imagination, that there are, of course, in a huge inequalities here, so that that to me to be new, relatively new in its place: a geographically, so you can call it Pennsylvania, you can call it the rust belt. You can call it the bits of Britain maybe post industrial left behind, but I think that

Olaf is more complicated than that, and I also think that age is a crucial factor here too. The labour did do well also, whether concentrations of younger people, people who rent housing. And who are suffering in a very tight housing market but the other thing. I think that does connect with the position of Democrats. Is that These rights are very concentrated, so they piled up in some places and if you have a first past the post system, whether its constituencies or states, as in the electoral college you're in trouble. If your piling up votes in very small geographically, against areas and if the other no more spread out and that's what happened here, I feel I would say is that, where the Pennsylvania comparison doesnt really work is, is that Pennsylvania, obviously I voted for Nixon waited twice for Reagan, would talking about consider some of the consistency in the north of England, where they haven't, rose anything but labour, since nineteen twenty two so

This is a realignment honour honour on a really different scale. Now I think that the absolutely right that some of these seats have been actually trending in this direction. For some time, if you take, for example, the seat at a place called How can they in in the West Midlands, stout, north and basically after Blair one and ninety ninety seven is turn out. Then the next general election fell by a long way and then EAST general election on the labour majorities been chipped away. Our chip to wear last night. It became a conservative, see so the story of. Why these places have given up on them, party isn't just about the last few years. Much longer than that. I think it is to do with what happened both he Labour project and the economic change in these former cereal areas, but I just wouldn't want people you

listen is hidden tee to miss the the the magnitude of the change is happening in some parts of the north of England in particular. Can we use your men? Are not you mentioned some seats that have been labour sense, the twenties going conservative as political scientists, political observers. How big of a surprise was last night, result. I personally it didn't feel like a shock. Scale that some recent elections have felt in that there was with a reasonable probability in the polls satiny pointing this way, including some of the most reliable pulse, the Johnson but when a majority of more than forty and possibly as large as eighty, which is where he is now in the polls, one massively out in this election, the average oppose as close to the final result, I think some of the shock does come from the facts that in certain seats in particular. The swing is huge

as somebody some haven't just flipped, they ve from being labour cease to being seats with you its tory majorities in ten year, ten thousand plus what we would now call safe conservative see so that that scale of it feels surprising that I think some element of surprisal it may be that shouldn't be in the fact that we keep for getting this in british politics. Boris Johnson is a winner, but here surprises when he winds. He surprised people He became aware of London. He surprised people when he won the breakfast reference He surprised people when you prime minister. Now he surprised people again. Maybe it's a mistake to be surprised by still fell by element of it. Last night he, reach parts of the electorate that no other conserved politician can reach I always thought that there was a a strange distribution of probabilities around this election and that

because it was a this large pool of potential. First time, conservative voters that it is possible that a significant number of them would loosened nerve in the polling, booth sort of in some sense go into the polling booth, encounter, a lot of ghosts, Yoo hoo would be sort of telling them that the word will they doing voting conservative but the other party, it was just as possible that they could go Nepal, in peace with the same ghosts, and that the goal should be telling them that I'd we need more than you. You do, or I'm completely affronted that your books, it votes being ignored and that was a sort of mindset that it was this sitting can pool of potential Tom conservative versus could yield the conservatives a large majority, and that's the way that its turn now. But I don't think that we should sort of underestimate the fact that I don't. I don't think he was all determined in some sense

in asking that this sort of crossing a psychological barrier for the vote the kind of consistency we are talking about today, conservativism is a big big deal yeah? You mentioned whether or not this was accurately reflected in the pre election. Pulling. Can we get into a little bit more of the specifics there? What kind of spread was it showing? Can we consider I've made a success for the Poles yet mean that so that, because it's a complex, first past the post system with me Regional variations in the huge complexity which no doubt will touch on in a minute of Scotland, is being asked effectiveness. Protein electorate now Northern Ireland is separate? Wales is a more liking London. This election, but still is more complex. We still to look at the headline figure just yet party voucher and the Poles spread was. I think it average doubt about, a nine and a half point difference.

Tories we're ahead and dagger end up pretty close to that the pilot was most successful last time in predicting a constituency base, Poland predicting to everyone's surprise the in twenty seventeen. We want to see a tory majority. This time too Ex before the result This was a: U Gallup Poll predicted a six daisy majority was pretty close and go over the constituencies right. They then, Then earth and they ran another one a couple of days ago, brought that sixty eight down to twenty eight one, two weeks ago, turned out to be more accurate as they want to examine twenty seventeen did. So. This is done. To restore faith in pulling but this to a sense that headline figure is crude. The other one that is consistent is the guy, between Johnson and carbons. Approval writings, which a lot of people take us about a guy and they called him There is a gap. A bit Johnson was, significantly ahead, even at the end fifteen plus points, whereas in twenty seventeen cuban close

One, may to effectively nothing a night That being the sign to those of us who, with hindsight now realize it, was telling us what was gonna happen. I think the other interested me when the post, as is the lake, the company that such Lee probably dumb best, if you think about it over the two elections, two thousand seventeen two thousand and nineteen- is surveys in which he says. Interestingly, does phone polling doesn't do online, pulling yeah that generally a factor that we take into consideration in the? U S, as while coups doing landline phone cellphone based pulling at yours just during an online, and we see that often times life phone calls most effective way of doing pulling. I want to get into some of what this means for the future of bricks and how the election shook out in terms of the minor parties. But first today's podcast is brought you bite, Casper Mattress we ve all heard of Casper. You know the sleep company without rigorously comfortable products at not so outrageous prices.

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calm, slash five, three, eight for more information or we're back and, as you mentioned David before the break. Of course, there are multiple parties in the UK and Election in Scotland last night was also a notable so can we just run through a little bit how the minor parties did and why was surprising and what wasn't The case. All of two of coupling Helen could do a couple made should be settled says we have an exit pole here, which has been very accurate. Elections assumes it came out last night, everyone except the Johnson was gonna win the economy. I see that he did, but it did get Scotland slightly wrong. So the exit Paul had the Scottish National Party winning almost every seat in Scotland. Fifty five out of fifty nine. I think it is in the end, they haven't one that many they are therein fortys and the consumer the parties held up a bit better, the liberal Democrats a bit better in Scotland, the party this be I've taught in Scotland. Just has one seat now is labour? That's another problem for labour, going forward. The scottish

this has gone. What result? Does it sets up a looming confrontation which may become the central, confrontational british politics post break so between the sky national parties demand for another independence referendum and Johnson's refuse refusal to grant it. He said he went granted and Johnson and cannot refuse he has a majority in parliament can do effectively what he likes, but the and we have equally got a mandate to save People of Scotland voted for it and after breaks it when we leave, which we will do in a few weeks that case stronger. So that's one of the big taken from this election, the other you can do. The grief of the liberal Democrats have had a up about election. They went in with a lot of It was even talk about them, winning a hundred seats, the leader Joe Swenson, allowed herself to be, We'll talk about yourself as a principle. Prime Minister, and they have, I think

my two gains and thus but those possible they could make one more, but they ve lost some seats as well so they have another moment at does people have eleven seeds. They man that with twelve, which is where they started after the last elections, I literally they got nowhere, but labels their leader roselli, dark? She lost her see they. They have Greece percentage of the vote, the show the vote that I have, but it's much less efficiently distributed, even in this small percentage that they have than it was last time, and I think that the problem that there. Was tat. They made choices about how to deal with the bricks issue and the cuban issue the didn't really lie not with the circumstances of the electoral system and deep simple targets they had for actually winning seats, so noticed gangs. They really needed to take, seeks away from the council: But I have to say that the primary pool

voters they should have been interested in were conservative remain voters, but it's pretty clear that these conservative remain roses. I have learned obviously stay the conservative party, and they have done so because they ve prioritize stopping carbon. Prime Minister over stopping breaks it. In order to try to They put the most important thing for the liberal Democrats would have been to do everything they possibly good to demonstrate their anti curbing credentials and Anna is not what judgments and ended up doing that any other things say about liberal Democrats. It. I think, though, if you look at it from the outside, it doesn't look like such a catastrophe, for them is home, said to have increased their vote shadow. They ve ended up probably with as many seats as they had lost their leader, but what made it will go down in the annals of british people history is one of the supreme acts of hubris is that they trigger this election, our was still in trouble a few months ago. Parliament had him, if not cornered, at least facing some pretty unenviable choices, and the

she was his way out. For the most part, not all of them, but many we're trying to resist that and was Joe Swenson, the liberal Democrat leader, who made the first move, who basically opened the door for Boris Johnson and not only as he marched through it, but he's trampled her in its wake, and I for that reason, this election, actually be remembered, among other things, particularly on surely for her for Joe Swenson, a hubris, and it will become a kind of morality. Tail be careful what you wish for. From maybe a little bit more of an academic perspective a first past the system with a bunch of parties competing is somewhat complicated and you get a lot of plurality. Winners instead of majority winners, how much of a census there? That some of the constituency. Some of the elections were spoiled by the fact that it Multi party system and their worrisome, plurality, winners, yummy.

Depends. What you mean by spoiled of the other party we haven't mentioned is the breaks it party, which is Nigel Ferocious Party, that also played a part in the show the bridge politics at last year by winning all european elections and effectively triggering the demise of tourism in the rise of Boris Johnson I came to this complicated arrangement that they would stand not in conservative seas, but only in seats that were currently held, by non conservative candidates. They did well last night in some respects and some of these cease. They they had really significant votes. So that the as were not any not having a majority, will actually quite low down in percentage terms. They do seem to have taken votes from the Labour Party as well as from the conservative party. The conservatives, great fear, was the brakes It would cost in this election because they would split the poor breaks it vote that didn't happen. And it does seem that some labour voters who, with the ghosts Helen, was talking about quite make the leap from

conservative found a safe resting place, embracing party can that's and so that really complicated it there are some seats at the conservatives might have one from labour that they didn't, because the bricks of party took some of them have over. There are clearly other seats that the concern but he did win turn it wasn't that high. So if you look at the numbers of votes, the people are getting to win. These seats is often not much more than fifteen. Sixteen. Seventeen thousand votes is not a lot of votes, It is a really complex system, even though The thing that we have seen even in this election, stranglehold of the two main parties outside of Scotland lay the conservatives have one almost all of the thieves there's been a motive discontent expressed with the electoral system, so that confronted with discontent with who of prime ministers because of the historical summers. Anyway, poor people Ratings mean spectacular. Pooh ratings for Germany, carbon in quite poor people. Ratings for

but John sentiment. I do think those issues actually are not the same. Between the two choices of the law. If the party on what the diner so the electoral system produce in terms of preventing the the two main parties I think the interesting aspect, though this election in this in regard to the electoral is is up. If the system is now played its part in clean the breaks it question, so we have had a election. That is also de facto acted as a second referendum on, one thing that was true was clearly true from the beginning after the referendum in June. Two thousand and sixteen was that on a concession deep. I consistency basis that leave at considerable advantages Sophie a common. What the exact figures are, but it would be something like if there were distributed by seats, it would have been to leave winning sixty five percent plus of the seats so

going to try to Sicily breaks it question by election under our electoral system? then she was going to make it possible to do that with it with a party winning property is low. Is forty to forty three percent of the vote in this case was a bit higher for the conservatives So we now trying to establish loses consent to the bricks question when it's been settled in part by electoral system, and I think that will be quite complex. For the for the future that undressed Maybe it's not so different from the electorate knowledge and distribution of republican version. Democratic votes here in the states well. I think that it is just if you have So we say heist selections and the rule, the electoral roll seemed play than some part in. Turning the outcome, whether that be College or whether it be our first past the post system and then try to sort of deal with what had been a referendum question very general election

I do think it makes the problem. Just imagine the outcome even harder than it sometimes is democratic politics. Anyway, the difference of course, is that you can add up the votes and say election last night leave this percentage at Torres to the Brexit Party, and then you cannot stretch, say second referendum will remain part. He's got the other law and you would just about get a majority. A set of Hilary versus Trump Majority in the popular vote, for there remain option oily for the second referendum or at least for the other second referendum option, but, unlike in that case, it cuts across the fact, but the Labour Party other clearly says: there's no sense. As a party feel somehow it got screwed by system, because it would have one otherwise I think that gives it a slightly different kind of edge and are not shed a complex but it also dissipates Abed I mean I've the trauma does being felt this morning in this country- is the truth

of the Labour Party. More than is the trauma of remain, but at some Point remain is going to wake up to the fact, maybe tomorrow We are leaving at the end of January now and that fight has been lost and at that point a different set of emotions will kick him you're. What comes next for breaks at what does the path forward? Looking Johnson once parliament, too passive, withdrew agreement, for Christmas on them believing on the thirty first of January, then we make to transition arrangements, and the beginnings of negotiating a new economic relationship, including new trade agreement, that's going to be false straightforward, there's going to be a set of a lot of police disagreement. I think about what kind of trade I'm relationship we're trying to negotiate weather there should be an extension of the transition.

Don't send you. An election campaign has categorically ruled out the possibility, extended the transition. So then that will be out of transitional arrangements by the end of two thousand and twenty, but one I think that the A majority of the relatively large majority he now has means is that he will have significantly more wriggle room in relation to the the algae within me. The conservative party and he may well almost like. He will be a quite possible. He will dispense with his promise about not standing. The transition agree with that, I think it's. It's a strange thing that some of the HE british politics was that's and points traumatic in the rock period. Four looked appeared before this election There are some really fraught moments. Emotions running very, very high, felt very high stakes this

action has settled a lot of that and some of that emotion will drain away But in a way the stakes are still just as high in some of the tough choices are still to be made, and one of them some questions is all that points of which were not been. I think quite get back to that because that can only happen in a parliament where the governing party does not have a majority when it has. A majority were back in much more familiar terrain that an innocent- the government the executive decides and Yes, they do something really stupid. That party will back them but will be appointed with some of that emotion returns. Sure, actually It's one of the oddities of this that things can drain away quite quickly. Things become an accepted fact quite quickly, but the They suggest, as high a mean some ways are higher in some ways: the next phase the negotiations much more significant for the future prosperity. I'm security of this country. Is there a huge security questions too,

done this huge fight over the withdrawal agreement, which was just about settling the past with the irish questions thrown in and the oral question still not resolve. But the other thing we haven't mentioned here is that the path This parliament was dominated by one of the main parties, the dp Democratic Unionist Party from Northern Ireland which effectively I'm points was holding the conservative government to ransom, not that Party Lucy's last night, but they have got nothing to hold over Johnson now, literally, nothing he doesn't even have to acknowledge their existence if he doesn't want to changes. The dynamics to an hour, What's a northern irish politics played such outsize role in british politics in the past couple of years and again, the stakes haven't, got any less high there what this final arrangement is where the bold raises in the Irish Sea, they won't feel the same with death, I feel the same. Is there a sense that breaks it is finally in the rear view. Mere I mean, do you mean

Obviously there are still high stakes negotiations, but as far as popular politics are concerned, is it behind you? No, but we're in a different stage of em in whatever the journey is wherever we end up. What happened. In the past few months, will feel like a different kind of politics, but behind us, some he's never gonna be behind us. I think that it is going to take some time, for a reaction to the bricks, its side of this election to to play itself out because at the moment is very much about the parties on the leaders of the parties, but in it possible that there still going to be a party, presumably the liberal Democrats that might commit to rejoining the European Union. As a has a position now considerable difficulties that is, for a meal.

No way that we could say today that the there isn't going to be a significant consistency of voters are going to want that? as a position that they can vote for in the future, whether there's a party that costs are. The low party can no longer be the party, but what the liberal Democrats, What do I think that it is still open, question and go and, as you know, five years is a long time in politics and economics still matter a lot I'm wondering that this election is clarified is the conservative party biblically. The Boers Johnson government now owns breaks. It not matron. Made from most David Cameron from anymore her talking about the fact that David Cameron is probably breathing of it even easier this morning, because he was someone who was blamed by many people for the nightmare that we were in and now that nightmare at least has receded ex nightmare will be Johnson's problem.

The global recession, Amy, who knows what will happen but breaks? It will get me start than in people's minds, particularly once economic consequences start to kick in. Whatever else is happening in the economy and the european economy could also face a huge problems in the next five years. So what a different phase, and I think in some ways it will feel more familiar will really matter whether there's a recession or not as to what people think about breaks. It will just be a high constitutional question cut across populist politics, but the agencies are still massive Gatt, looking ahead for the two different parties for the two different leaders? Obviously, ass night is a very different story, but what does Germany Court do you know? What does labour do now? I always said last night that he who only the Labour Party into another general election, but that it doesnt intend immediately to resign I think there may be some considerable pressure put upon him within the parliamentary party to speed his resignation up but

we can be sure that the people come himself. People bank open, not least John Tunnel, are gonna fight incredibly hard to ensure that the carbon legacy that will mean that the left of the Labour Party will remain in control of the policy. I think they will have certain advantages, in trying to ensure that that happens. I think the problems for carbon? Is? He would like a slower departure so that he can and his words slight euphemism oversee the transition. I e they're in the direction you once the in the next few weeks are acute. There will be a series of parliamentary events, including the vote on the withdrawal agreement, bill and because we get into the spring I'll, be a queen speech. The government programme that will be a budget by the leader of the opposition plays an important role. I cannot carbon standing up in the House of commons facing the conservative, benches and being she was anything other than derision derision would be shed on his own side too. So I

maybe you can stay around for six weeks, but the idea you can see this roof much longer than that seems to me to be. With the thinking and if I was Labour party, I would accelerated for others two. I think they need to move on. Do you see any world which labour now tax more towards the centre although there are still very much in the hands of its members and the members choose the leader and the members are still committed, if not coolby, nothing, some of them off last night will start to wonder what they were thinking, but two many of the policies and what sometimes not gets cold communism totally show what that is without the man himself, but at least many those commitments are popular and particular popular with the members desks a visceral loathing. Of Tony Blair in the membership of the Labour party again I wanna two people might be stoned to rethink that, because he's. Anyone is one any elections for them. Generation but

the campaigning for this election. There were things that were sent out momentum, who are the organizing wing of the court, movement lots of young campaigners and they were told, go on the doorstep and even if you don't get a hearing, get our message across and the first thing you should do is land Tony Blair rip black. It said that step number one: the membership is not to talk to the centre of any The problem for like other poem for labour is, is that both the carbon side, the party and the centrepiece of both implicated in this debate because clearly current was needed. Tested amongst many of these defecting vote is devoted to the conservatives but at the same time it's a centrist to push labour away from the position that had, which was to support proxy labors terms into this second referendum position so that the code,

these days are right when they say that some of the blame belongs with the central, I think for moving labour to a position that cost them so many leave voters several ground is that if they want to get into some, Nissan struggles for free, and now when it comes to Johnson the conservatives. Johnson could be Prime Minister for five years now, maybe more, maybe including the breaks it or even beyond breaks at what kind of Prime Minister Dear expect Johnson to be we're? Just gonna have to talk to them send to now, because you don't have to defend these conservative seats in the formal former labour conservative seats, and that means it's gonna have to be a more economically interventionist conservative party than we ve seen in quite some time. I think everything I Johnson people, sometimes they go now- he's got the power we consider find out who he really is. We know who really is he's the guy's been along he's a risk taker he's not a predictable, the person or politician he's quite willing to and tat quite dramatically he's noticeable.

We got on his feet, She struggled this campaign when the going got tough when he was under severe questioning. Your looks rosy now in last month in a year in eighteen months, when something happens, thickly of some happens. Economically, his weaknesses will come to the fore to every brief, minister when they want a big, mature in parliament. For a while to invincible, because there are so few checks and its where the opposition is gonna come from, but we politicians with this kind of power quite quickly discovers its limits. Let's leave it there. Thank you I want David, Gary Ruskin those Helen Thompson, professor, in the Cambridge Department of Politics and international studies, focusing on political economy, David Ransom and is the head of the department of Politics and international studies at the University of Cambridge. They host the podcast talking politics. Also a note stick around at the end of this pod cast. Here, a preview of our sports podcast hot, take down an interesting discussion about russian doping, we'll be back,

U S politics and impeachment coverage on Monday. Hopefully you enjoyed this hop across the pond, my name. Kalen droop you can get in touch by e mailing us at pod, cast at five thirty eight dot com. You can also, of course, treated us Questions are comment if Europe the show leave us a rating or review in the Apple podcast store or tells about us thanks for lessons and we'll see you say, one more thing: a preview from five thirty eight spot, podcast. You should already know this, but in case you don't five. Thirty eight has a sports podcast, it's called hot, take down and on this week's instalment, the team discussed. The world anti doping agency is decision, to ban Russia from the Olympics because of doping violations. But russian athletes, who have a clean record, will still be able to compete that led the hot takedown crew

draw some comparisons to russian meddling. In? U S elections, so here's a preview of what they had to say and make sure to subscribe to hot takedown wherever you get your part, You often here in politics. You know that the Putin's player and this is the Putin Playbook on full display- is look at what they did, especially in this cover up. They deny it's an eye. They deny at all costs they never amid. Wrong doing, and what- we do with this. Wretch sank off. They attack the accuser, that's immediately what they went after the person that literally, the whistle blower it's about what we do with evidence and wrong doing on the global stage in it. It very much ties into what have what Russia did in the twenty. Sixteen election is the interfering with: U S elections. What this debate! rotation is really about is what happens when the perpetrator, denies the fact pattern. What should should there be extra steps taken? You know,

top of whatever that the initial sanction was that way. Would it have been different? Had they banned every russian athlete mean it still at him and used as a political Europe, and there is a risk jingoism in which you over punish the enemy quantum crowd. The end. You end up tarring a citizen of a country just because their political leader does something- and there are no easy answers here. For me, at least in the sense that I do think that its raising the parallel and noting that this is another instance in which you have to just point sort of. Pattern a denial, and then it a muddle. The response that doesn't help sort out what's true, what's not that, as a journalist makes my skin tingle, but