Why am I soon? Then? That's not what you look like a gesture. I guess that we can all see each other. I had more version doubt face. You know what a more flattering your best side is when you're, a very very small me happen varies in that I am best video not on a Monday, morning, Sir hello and welcome to the five thirty eight politics by chance. I'm dealings still wondering what went wrong with pulling in twenty twenty. We might have some. Answers for you today last. The American Association for public opinion research released a comprehensive report addressing why we saw historically large polling error in the twenty twenty election. The grouping many leading pollsters from across the industry

been dissecting the accuracy of twenty twenty poles since before the election was conducted. Ultimately port offers several hypotheses, but states quote identifying conclusively I pulled overstated. The Democratic Republic in margin relative to the certified vote appears to be. impossible with available data, we'll get asked whether that is a good or bad use of Poland. Analysis We also continue our walk down memory lane with a segment were calling. Where are they now the democratic presidential primary candidates of twenty twenty? So we saw a Record number of Democrats vie for the nomination in twenty twenty more than two dozen, and it seems like some candidates got into the race on the theory that, even if they weren't going to be President a profile, being run, might be good for their careers, so almost figure out from the Democratic national convention. Was it we're going to discuss- and here with me

do it our managing editor, Michael Cohen, he Mica so low everybody all zero. Thus politics! reporter Alex Samuels, hey, Alex Hagen and elections, analyse Nathaniel radio chain, Nathaniel pain. So let's talk bout that American Association for Public Opinion research report and that group is also known as a poor for short, which is easier than repeating that again and again they found that national surveys of the presidential election, where the least accurate in for decades and at state level poles were the least accurate in at least two decades. Estimates were off by four and a half points for the national feel our vote and higher at around five point. One points for state level: presidential pulls now I want to take a moment here to know that. I know this can all seem a bit academic, but it's really more

I mean the idea that accurate pulling matters is essentially the idea that, knowing what Americans think or believe matters on everything, including yes, the national election, but also Maxine hesitancy, the reach of disinformation, Slovakia or health care education policy so pulling is one of the best tools we have for understanding How Americans are thinking about many aspects? Otherwise, so those are the states here back to the report. It offers some possible explanations for the poles being off and rules out others, but, as I mentioned, does not come to an overarching conclusion. Listeners have likely heard some of the explanations before such as I'm Trump supporters being less inclined to respond to pollsters, they will lapse. possibility is like late deciding voters and not waiting for education, which were common explanations for the pulling error in twenty sixty now Alex Nathaniel? This was a more than one hundred page long report. I've met you,

a couple of the things that were included in the report, but I want to hear from each of you what was your take away from the report about the appalling error in twenty twenty Nathaniel pick us up. I mean the main take away as this that we still don't really know what happened and that more research is going to be necessary to determine that. But I You think. It's also notable that a lot of the theories that people have kicked around since the election are still very much in play. For example, there is a theory that there was something about the pandemic and may be. Democrats were more likely to stay home during the pandemic and therefore they were more likely to pick up the phone. There also could have just been. This was such a high turnout election. It was very hard to get the likely. voter models? Correct, or maybe there was something about these kind of lower price City voters that make them different from the types of voters who normally turn out and the theory that has become probably the most in Vogue

although the appeal, our report was careful to say that this can't be proven kind of by its nature. There's something specific about trump voters that make them less likely to pick up the phone, independent of other things that you can wait poles by so things like college, education or race, or things like that, and that could come down to something like Trump voters being sceptical events. tensions, for example, most pollsters, are affiliated with either a media outlets or university, which are both seen as persona non grata among trompe Republicans these days, but again a lot of this is very speculative and while it kind of makes sense in it fits what we do now. their store Lothar. We don't know you're just going off that. I don't think there's this big passionate We don't know- and so someone who is reading, therefore, obviously vows at first reading that we were unable say like definitively here's what went wrong. Here's what we can do better, but I did think overall

the analysis was very useful because they did help Daniels point. They identified plausible threats were, you know why we saw the numbers out we did and how they differ from twenty sixteen and twenty eighteen and posing Questions now like. Is there a significant portion of the electorate who just not going to answer pulsars phone calls or has Kobe just dramatically change the way tat we go about pulling and while that have impact in the future, I feel Now is the time to be asking this question so that we can improve on this in twenty twenty two and two thousand and twenty four. So that's probably where I found the most used and reading the report. you know, Natalie Jackson he's the research director over at PR. I had a really interesting piece, simply saying that its encouraging words, or could be good news that we don't have a concrete answer for what went wrong with the poles and twenty two

This is, in contrast, obviously with twenty sixteen, where posters felt like they had a pretty good handle on what went wrong in particular. they relate to siders, he swung towards tromp, and there was a failure to wait for education, which has become increasingly important fault line. Politics to what Natalie row was that this year, because we can't just point to one thing: hey: it's the carburetor. We need to fix that that will incur pollsters to try a bunch of different things to experiment to around with how they're waiting stuff, how their reaching out to people and those experiments and the variety that's inherent in that because there isn't one remedy we're looking at here could yield. Results in the long run, our the medium run, then in the post, twenty sixteen pulling landscape. So that's kind of like a positive spin on their steady

I found encouraging yeah and we should say that it's kind of our position at five. Thirty, eight that you can't predict pulling error in advance and a big reason for that is that say: there's a pulling error one year. Pollsters will try to adjust and correct for the biases created, pulling air and sometimes maybe, though, even over adjusted, and that makes the next pulling error either smaller or makes it may be. Democratic leaning worth before was republican, leaning or something like that, and so I do think. There is obviously this narrative that the poles are broke in and that they are always going to be overestimating Democrats now, but that wasn't true, notably in twenty eight ten. I think it's far from certain that that will continue to be true going forward, even as the pulling industry does face clearly some challenges and something that they ought to look into. Michael, you drew a comparison between twenty twenty one, twenty sixteen, whereas in twenty sixteen we largely chalked up to waiting by age,

nation and late deciding undecided. Voters, essentially that still towards the end of the election. There were a lot of undecided that ultimately broke restaurant. Does this report throw into question any of the conclusions that we came to after twenty sixteen? If it is the case that are less inclined to respond to pollsters, then Republicans, who may be poorer, undecided or centering bite in or not voting or something like that could not have also been the case in twenty six team, I do we need to go back and reconsider our take away from even the twenty sixteen election tunic stand. I mean, I don't think we should completely throw out the lesson to be learned from twenty. Sixteen in terms of wine keeping a very close eye on how many undecided voters there are, particularly in the waning weeks of a campaign and factors that into your analysis and rid of the race. and two waiting by education, education pass become really important in terms of which side of the Parson divide. Voters fall on. That said,

think what interesting and frustrating about twenty twenty is there doesn't? seemed to be a variable that pollsters failed to account for other than now finding enough republican voters trumpeted specifically other in down Bela races. Republican ten minutes were also underestimated, and I'm trying to make a distinction between people who vote for public and candidates and like self identified or publicans like it might be that they had enough Republicans, but they were a kind of less trompe early were left loyal to the party exact would break as they What we say in this report that the poles due weight for Republican so like it's like they got the number of Republicans right, but the number of trumps supportive, wrong protection, and that's the big unanswered questions here, the closest a report and the dessert, the smartest people in the building industry doing really smart analysis the cliffs

they come to an answer is to basically say, but they don't have proof of this, but they sort of like this is where their conduct leaning is basically say. We think poles are not reaching a group of reports Can voters who are dissimilar to the Republicans we are reaching in some way that way being there. More likely to vote for republican candidates, so it basically just comes down to. For some reason, we are not reaching enough republican voters. Now the candy explanation for that, I think, is the police cessation of pulling itself. Seen over the years Trump Attack, Paul's derived real scientific Paul's as fake poles, if they're not flattering to him

and so you can imagine a world where trumps most die hard supporters or even put aside from per second and just say, the conservative voters, who are most distrustful of institutions and the establishment and media and science and whatever are just not responding to paused and picking up the found, are not protected eating, and if that's the case, that's a big problem. You know four, years. Response rates have been falling and we didn't really see a drop in the accuracy of poles until recently right so it feels a little bit kind of like the chickens are coming home to roost. But I go back to what Nathaniel sandwiches,

we have now had two of the last three elections have underestimated republic. Can support basically fear the last, for if you include twenty forty three of us for letting that's not all that many, that's a pretty small sample so who's to say what that means. For twenty twenty, two, twenty twenty four now I think this report and many other people have made like compelling cases for why? Maybe this isn't just a flu? Can we do have a problem reaching these voters, but still it's all very tentative. I think in their analysis, they did raise the possibility that the polls will sort of bounced back to normal, with Trump not on the ballot, that was one thing they said when they are looking at today. Between twenty sixteen and twenty eighteen poles and swim, eighteen pulsar so much better than twenty twenty Poles were worse than twenty sixteen. So if this is a problem related specifically to tramp it'll interesting to see what the twenty twenty two people say. Now, if he's on the ballot and twenty twenty four

I don't know exactly how they tracked for aid, because if this to get a segment of the population who just not picking up the phone and not answering pulsars calls I would have, as we shall adopt had, I dont know what pollsters can really do to fix that this is like officer speculative question, but do you think it is specific to tromp, because I tend to think not at least Firstly, not, I think it's possible that Trump appealed to us admit of the population who specifically turned out to vote for him and maybe wasn't ass motivated mountain twenty, a team, but If that's true, I guess it raises the possibility that things could return to normal in the future by I don't I don't think I can t definitively. I think its potentially not specific to drum but specific to the ways that the parties are changing and your like. Maybe, if Trump isn't on the ballot, but somebody who campaigns to a republican party that is in

trumps vision of what the Republican Party should be, that we could still see some of those challenges, because that vision of the Republican Party does kind of hype up some distrust in institutions, and so I dont know if just trump not being on the ballot would fix that aspect of it yeah. I think trump more kind, as exemplified answered catalyzed. What was already there, this kind of distrust of institutions and a rejection of expertise, but look certainly trump hope that, along with how much he attacked pulling like, we have never seen a candidate or president attack pulling so directly, and so often so surely he helped along, but I attended,

if this is causing the lack of response to these poles, it's more widespread than tromp, and I think the evidence for that is the pulse, underestimated down ballot republicans to more than Trump. I think, actually yeah. That comes up in this report, the institutional and given a Tory all races, statewide, the Republicans. There is more of an under arrest among Paul's than for tramp in those same states. Will a potential theory for that is you know we talk, I think we must have been focusing on. Perhaps these really kind of low social trust Republicans who are opting out of poles. For that reason that we had a piece on the site from contributor Emily begins. It outline two reasons, and I was one reason than another reason is that perhaps that a lot of college educated, Republicans who were in suburbs, for example, who are still loading for tromp and down bout Republicans aren't participating in Paul's because of social desirability by us. Basically, they feel

they are surrounded by. Similarly well educated, woke, suburban knights and they feel like they can't share that their voting for Trump, and maybe that's why they're opting out pulling. This is distinct. I would point out from the shy trump voter theory, which is specifically that people are lying to pollsters about their support, which there is very little to no evidence for, but maybe they're they're kind of opting out and and that something that would be consistent with me think about in the suburbs of Atlanta or something like that, where you saw Trump had a certain level of support. The Republicans down about Republicans do even better. So clearly, I think there is some people, though they are small, and I think that the people often think about, but take a vote there's a lot more than they ought to. Given that ninety five percent of people dont but their tickets, but clearly there is the small strain of people who

really kind of really want to vote Republican and they do so in spite of trump and maybe even vote for Trump. In spite of his actions, I would ask you as a little bit about how this report was received, but first today I cast is brought you buy new, not everyone wants to be on a strict diet due to a days at the gym or drink questionable tease. Instead of trying to cram your life. to someone else's idea of health. Try new new uses college based approach to find a healthier balance, that's mobile to your life and, as a result, more sustainable. You dont need rules, just the knowledge and wisdom to help you build smarter, more sustainable habits. Numa cognitive, behavioral approach helps you unlearned bad habits and better understand your relationship with food. One size does not fit all sorts

Did your goals and new, more personalize a programme to you? No need to fear ruining the whole programme with one off day. Numa hope you get back on track. All you need is a daily ten minute, checking no gruelling early mornings or huge chunks. Out of your day, start building better habits for healthy or long term results sign up for your trial at noon. Dot, com, slash politics, that's an oh! Oh, am dot com, slash politics! After this, a poor report came out, politico published a piece looking at their analysis, titled quote pollsters Colin impossible to say why twenty twenty Poles were wrong. That's the end of the tunnel! So people reading stemming headlines might think, while poles are broken and no one has any idea why it's even happening. You know poles are no good, and so I'm curious if the my conclusion that came to and the way that has been received by the broader media ecosystem makes sense because they

say in this report a big part of the reason that the I know for sure why poles Roth is that we simply dont have data showing the difference between people who did respond to poles and those who did it like. We can't go do a whole survey of people who specifically didn't respond to poles in the first place. At the same time, they are pretty clear about I policies they think could have contributed to the polling era in which they have ruled out. Basically, doesn't make sense that the ultimate conclusion is that quote, impact What would the available data were? Can be a little more precise about about what we do, and I know that this will come as a surprise, I think, to long term besides, but like, I think, the coverage of this report- and this is true of coverage of poles in General- usually is just like way- overwrought pause had a bad year in twenty twenty. It was not orders of magnitude. Worse than twenty, sixteen, which itself was

that unusual now look, I don't wanna say: oh everything's, fine. Does this not? The poles were often off in a meaningful way and are really worrying trends in terms of response rates- and these voters that posters are having trouble reaching as we ve been talking about, but like we're not talking about a a historic failure here, really we're talking about a failure that, towards the larger end up spectrum we ve seen in modern times now. If you go back further, there have been far bigger pulling error so, like I think all the cover of this report and just pulling in general, and with I mean we ve talked about this endlessly, but it needs to have a better appreciation for the fact that poles are inexact there. The best tools we have to measure public opinion and, as you said at the top Galen measuring

opinion is important for a billion reasons before you get her horse re stuff, but poles are the best tools we have for measuring public opinion, their inexact there's a margin of error in the margin of error is meaningful and its especially meaningful in that time and modern politics work. Most elections are close, given polarization so like. I think people should read this report and cover this report after, like taking a couple deep breaths and justice coming down then and looked like the people working on this are smart and though try stuff, some of it will work some of the bomb there'll be pulling hours in a future everybody justness to chill out a little bit. I think also twenty twenty, this kind, the perfect storm. In some ways I mean there was a pandemic paradise ways of voting high turn out and you have from all those things transformed survey produced in this year or so to make us point, might be unfair to look at what

in twenty twenty and then make this sweeping conclusion that we're never gonna from here it's all down health from here or anything like that? Alex makes a great point. The twenty twenty was crazy. There was a pandemic. they were forced to rethink how they administer The elections on the fly. Basically, voters at a figure that out on the fly, I saw one study I think that found there there was a relationship between the extent of covert says is in and how large the pulling error was in that state. Now, at that time, in October, There is also a correlation between the extent of covered outbreaks and the partisanship at the state. They were ass, being equal worse in red state, so that gets a little messy in terms of trying to entail But there is a pandemic, is a crazy year. The fact that, like

poles were a little more often they normally our should not be a huge shock. Do you agree with a poor that we don't have enough data to say why the poles were offered? You think we can say hey. There are enough clear ideas of what might have gone wrong that we can basically paint a picture for folks I don't want to. Second guess a boy. I trust them. You do read the report and you come away thinking. A lot of signs are pointing to this non response issue. So in that sense, Maybe the answer is a little clearer than are willing to come right out and say just in the sense of like clearly, poles are not reaching some voters, they should be reaching, but a poor rightly has a pretty high standard for claiming dumping as a finding, he I up, obviously because the poles were. there were some people that warrant being each time there were some waiting problem, at least, but I think, even if we can

It was deafening due to this differential non response. The question of why transporters parent responding is an important question so so now I think it is fair of them to paint it that way and to offer of theories may or may not be just one theory of aid. Multiple those theories there could also be issues that they didn't identify. I think that's all fair. We talk a little bit about iterating to try to get things more accurate in the future, and I want to read quote from the report they say. No mode of interviewing was unambiguously more accurate. Every motive interview in every mode of sampling, overstated the democratic republican margin relative to the final certified vote margin there, only minor differences in the polling air, depending on how survey, sampled or interviewed response, regardless of whether respondents were sampled using random, digit dial, voter registration, West or online recruiting pulling margins on average were too favourable to democratic candidates. So we have talked a lot on this passed over the five and half years. Are we?

during it about how methodology really matters and in particular this last cycle, there was a lot of attention paid to pollsters were using text message because maybe that would reach some of the people were less inclined to hang around and answer pollsters questions over the phone. What did you make of that? Finding in particular kind died with what Nate found in his post election analysis, where famously or infamously are pollster ratings stopped giving extra credit to live collar phone poles, which have a story been the gold standard of pulling industry. But now it seems like there is really no evidence that they are significantly better than on line calls, for instance. Yet this is a big development for years and years and years polls that used live collars were, as that ended, a sad considered, the the gold standard and- and that's not the case, any more. That data shows that the postal

our analysis, we did show that there is a poor analyses. Show that again I go back to that kind of Natalie Jackson spin on things and say I think that can be good in the long term, because it means people will try. Sir Actually in our analysis, polls that use text messaging did ok, it's an incredibly small sample and most poles. Remember, are using multiple modes of of reaching out to people, but I think of him next two four, six, ten years posters are trying text messages trying Tik Tok. I have no idea, try, You now go back to the old days when, like George Gallop, would set up a table in front of us shopping center and asked people like. I think, that's a good thing that they start trying bunch of different things, and we can. We can see what works rather than holding onto this notion. That's now outdated. That does the right way to do a poll in the wrong way to do it.

This is not true and the more I was reading. A cue am sorry and forgetting the man's name and title, but he was associated with the report and to your point mica he had mention up. Posters are trying to basically find different ways to talk to voters, and he specifically mentioned taxes the district, which is having its special election run off tomorrow and they said in order to reach voters, they were doing a mix of text messages, but also No landline calls and then also mailing people things, and they were basically trying to achieving get better respond trades and see if they could get different types of people responding to the pole, based on how they are reaching out to them. But I think to us, I think, Pulsar just have to do a couple, different experiment. And once they ve done them all than they can probably go back and see. ones are useful and which ones will be most fruitful for future by yard.

Should be especially interesting, because it's a run off between two Republican, so maybe they may try to clarify which parts of republican voters which segments of the voting block are more or less likely to respond to a particular type of survey. I'll be interested to see you if they come up with some clear signals there, and this is kind of what I wanted to wrap up this segment, which is what does the future look like in terms of pulling our people gonna turn to other things that are quite pulling white dissecting information on social media and so on, and so in the way that campaign sometimes do? What's the future? Look like after reading this report? I do think we'll see more of that. I think we already started to see it and two thousand and sixteen and two thousand and twenty where people will try to derive boat intention from quote unquote. Big data

go and club big data. He says derisively, while it's just I can. I think, you'll see people look at doing another. Do what campaigns have historically done combined. What magazines do people subscribed to with you know? You can combine that with people's online accounts, with whatever, whatever whatever and try to derive vote, Jane, I think we'll have to wait several cycles before we have any idea of how well that works the other thing, I would say, is I'm a by so take us with the grain of salt by this to me is just like another reminder of why five thirty eight covers elections. The way we cover them is because poles again are the best tool we have but their inexact, and so you can't just look at a pole or

average and say. Ok, the leader is gonna win, that's just not how works or to an exact for that figuring out what the Poles mean is complicated. It takes a sense of political history and math and start and all that stuff, and so that's, like you know, unlike plugging ourselves here, tailed yardstick with us folks we'll get to view the next election. It's why we cover the things the way we do. You know if polls were perfectly accurate. If they had ever been perfectly accurate, we could just look at the polling average. The leaders going to win- that's never been the case, but I hope doesn't happen. I hope people don't throw the baby out with the bathwater. You no holes going back to where you started. This getting holes are really important if the people who govern us have any chair for what

people want and think in fear and hope. For then, poles are some future version of poles. We'll have to figure prominently in that up until the day where they implant the microchip in our brain and now it's all just in the cloud, and we have no need for poles or five thirdly, I think our society, following that guy going off of that failure by nobody forward. I feel like we should just maybe adjuster expectations when it comes to falling, particularly right now we're in a time we're pulling, is very hard because the reasons we talked about before, like pulsars, have to talk to people who do not want, talk to them or who feel like pulling is inherently flight we're in a pandemic further. foreseeable future, which means, maybe one size population is more likely to stay home and pick up the phone and talk to these people and their

far more voters and twenty twenty than ever before, which makes it harder to assess the population. But to my first point: don't see a better solution easily and readily available beyond, like the point that we are currently doing, and all that to say. I think it might be better if we change how we think about going rather than bash the entire industry entirely plus one billion. To that end, I think that's a good place to live things for that conversation. But let's move on by looking even further back so back to the twenty twenty democratic presidential prime. I am running for president of the United States. none that together you and I and our two thousand and sixteen campaign began the political revolution

this is, in spite of our lives, the principles that will guide my campaign for president or simple enough to stood on a bumpersticker freedom security and democracy, I'm so excited. I want to give every american one thousand dollars a month. I M running for every american running hurry you. This is a defining moment of truth for this country for every single one of us, I'm going to run for president. The United States because, as a young mom, I will fight for your children as hard. As I would fight for my own, I'm running for President Defeat, Donald Trump and to unite and rebuild America. It's really that simple. I announce my candidacy for president of the United States of America or countries that measures must be to rise to the most urgent challenge of our time. Defeating climate change.

The present, because it's time for new leadership, I'm going to harness love for political purposes, I will meet you on that field and sir love woman in both the moon, recent democratic and republican primaries. There were historically large feel so more than a dozen A crouching twenty twenty and sixteen or seventeen Republicans and twenty sixteen, depending on how you can't even for people who don't seem to have a great shot or the traditional political expression and it seems to be the conventional wisdom that you don't lose all that much by getting in the rates. You could boost your name, recognition for a future run for office, greater email. and donor last get a book deal, be appointed to the cabinet or get picked for VP. So today we're gonna, look at where the twin Twenty primary candidates are now and ask if running for president is always a great career move. So too, on your memory. I'm going to rapid fire goes from the list of twenty twenty democratic candidates,

and one day and one by one. So here we go. Let's see if the sands and saying to the listeners, we have Joe Biden Bernie Sanders, Amy Clover, sharp tolls. He gathered Elizabeth warring Might Bloomberg people to judge Tom's dire Duvall, Patrick Michael Bennett, undergoing John Delaney Hocker Marian volumes and inclusion Castro calmly Harris Steeple, adjust S document says I'm better work. Tim Ryan build the Plaza christen Joel, modern, J, initially John taking the barbaric swallow so these they think about that list of people who may have benefited their careers and who is better off today because They ran for president, who is worse off today or maybe no difference, and so for each we're going. Order and ask you, might get Alex Nathaniel, who is better or worse off start with an easy one? Joe Biden Mica? I'll go out alone, said better off. President of the United States, has a nice ring to it. I guess that's why everything like, I said he, I think, is better

Ah Nathaniel space it up a little bit his ask. As being president stocks right circle, breyer we're talking about in terms of their career. You know they're all kinds of hesitate, arguments you might be able to make about everyone on this as just being worse, but the next one really interesting Bernie Sanders. I'm gosh you gonna, say worse off. Here we can combat into why. I say better off, I think he's like political prospects for the same. His lake ideology is better off, interesting, ok, so there's some disagreement here might do you want to stick out your worse off possession? I think argument I would make is about the kind of personal political leverage she has certainly Bernie Sanders. His ideology within the Democratic Party is in a better place now than it was.

Five years ago, ten years ago, whatever. But I think what I would say is that after twenty sixteen when burn did much better than I think a lot of people thought against Hilary clan here a huge amount of leverage within the party and almost all of his eye, He is almost all his campaign platform. Was on the rise within the party in the wake of twenty twenty. I think. that was kind his moment and heat didn't when the nomination and in the meantime, you ve kind of seeing other people on the left. A sea was of a war in many other people, rise up and take a little bit of that space within the arena. I think he's a bit worse off after twenty twenty hours in this annual, your honor But I say better because I fully pernicious never out of the spotlight and if it's not him, then it's the larger progressive

movement in general, and I think he often gets a lot of credit for helping us without into the mainstream intervening. Did you see as a bit of an outsider and now he's the chair of the Budget Committee so in this unique spot of being a democratic socialist is a key member of the established and I dont know if he would have had that position. Had you not run in both twenty sixteen and twenty twenty yeah? I mean, I think, if you look at his reasons for any prisoners, ideology and clearly there better off- and maybe this is too credulous, but I don't really think of Bernie is necessarily a self serving politician. I then you genuinely was running to get his eye he is out there. I think he did that and I think in TWAIN, specifically, he dropped out of the race earlier than he probably needed to he kind of cosy up to bite in what he said.

We did not do with Hillary Clinton and twenty six team, and I think that use are seeing that reflected in a lot of buttons priorities like the amount of money. That Biden is trying to spend with his infrastructure building with the colored relief, though it's really quite staggering- and I think that is the Bernie Sanders M O is, let's have a huge amount of money into government and gum programmes in and works. Ok, a couple things one luck, Bernie Sanders has had. Gay generational impact on the Democratic Party, I'm not debating that. I think that is true, but the idea that he is not self interested politician, I think Yes very wrong. I think if it were right, I think he problem He would have behaved a little differently and twenty sixteen with Hillary Clinton. Then he ended up doing probably more like you did in twenty twenty. In fairness, he maybe

learn some lessons from twenty sixteen but here's. My final argument for why centres is worse off in twenty nineteen, Bernie Sanders was probably one of three or four people who was most likely to be the? president, and now I think, he's very far down on that list so sure, if you remove personal interest and ambition, maybe this my argument is better off, but just in terms of his stature and leverage within the party, I think twenty twenty was this moment than any didn't when, although we did well, but he didn't want to kind of split the difference in twenty six? Turkey is clearly better often run for president in twenty sixteen, even if it was on that theory that we mention, which is that like hey, even if you dont, when your boost your profile and your ideas or whatever, He kind of started this momentum within the party, but in twenty twenty, the whole country and the Democratic Party got to watch as he lost every county in Michigan, so he probably by running again in twenty twenty, helped.

Kind of a road some of the momentum that his progressive movement had, because when he but we ran against the more moderate candidate in twenty twenty. You lost By more than you asked in twenty sixteen, and so I wonder if he had kind of taken a step back in twenty twenty, if it wouldn't have been, is clear for the party that some of his ideas- just not popular even within the Democratic Party, that was gallons way of saying, Michael right if the standard is like, did the person win the press that's a nomination. Otherwise there worse off than I just think. That's a sliced, Andrea and we have to look at China where they are now no nominal fair enough Nathaniel. We can debate actually that point by moving on to our next candidate: actually because you from here on out clearly, these people did not win, but let's get any closer, so she ran shouldn't when little known senator, who had a moment during the Cavanaugh

import now, nations hearings- where is she now she better or worse, off, better off, is like a middle way, not really hush, hush yeah she's, no different, I leaned wherein no different but better. If there's an in between there how can you think she's slightly better off than that? Significantly yeah? That's right! I'm ok! what's the rationality? She got a book deal. She just wrote a book about me please. She got her shining moment at the inauguration, but then again, of course, she still on but you didn't lose anything right. While she lost family lost a lot. I guess a lot of elections but she raised her profile. She still relatively young, has a politician. She sixty one, I think, so she s future ambitions. I think she helped herself in twenty. Twenty should acquire yourself. Well, there was a couple minor scandals, but like minor innocent,

the amount of tension they got, but I think she came out on the other side, with a bigger national profile, etc, etc. Yeah ray that she has got a prominent role in the Senate. Now I think she's chair of the Rules committee and seems to be playing a role kind of internally in negotiations within the party publicly speaking, so I over the course of the twenty presidential campaign tract favorability ratings among democratic candidates among democratic voters and so close. Are did become more famous, so her name recognition or the share of Democrats with an opinion of her went up twenty nine points, but her Netflix. Reality only went up by eight points, so it's not like Democrats really fall in love with her either. So I can clearly it better to be more miss and well known and more prominent. But it's not clear to me what she like made herself at a darling of the democratic base to set her up for a future presidential runs. That's why I think she's a little bit better off but like not necessarily in a significant way or show

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three eight that's! The number is not the latter's. That's podium! P! O d! I! U am dot com, slash five, three eight! Today's podcast is brought to you by Russia on dotcom German, motorcycle ATV or even a truck. That's sitting in your garage that you ve been waiting to sell with rumble on dot com. You can easily turn your unused vehicle into cash. In minutes, rubble odd dot com will give you a cash offer for your vehicle and pick it up for free anytime anywhere they can even financer. Next Harley Polaris can am Yamaha and even more, if you're, just looking to upgrade see what rumble on can do, for you by visiting rumble on dot com. That's our! U N, B, L oh and dot com fast bites faster cash. Our next up on the west is totally gabert mega. Worse off, yeah we're off wears off, maybe like one

You send. It says why she was arising STAR in Hawaii kind of had following on the left, but she ran a campaign that really nobody understood them, and I think she ended up getting a lot of flak for her possession something like Syria and using the same kind of analysis that I do they mean closure looking at gabardine for mobility rating, it really plunged down to negative twenty one by the end of the primary campaign, or next up is always with Warren driving this instrument, and I personally don't know how I would respond. I think this is. Is it better off. Actually now that you set out so affirmatively, I feel like worse off, but go ahead I can see her in the same camp is slightly better than global, sharp eyes, a better

I think this is a clear one where her reputation has gotten better, but it may be her political fortunes have gotten worse, or at least the same. Why do you say that what you think they're worse while cause? I don't think she is going to be able to run for president again so like She is now in the disposition where she is cometh intellectual leader of Democrats in the Senate and that's kind of a nice emeritus position have, but in practice it would you rather have the the power why won't you be able to run for president again just age she's on the older side. Fightin retires entwined, for she could conceivably run, but you would be on the other side and then I think my twenty ITALY too late for guess. What I see here is just I was worn. Was that have a person who had so much potential huge star in the party was appealing to the kinds of people who chart the new cycle in the media.

and so on, and then watching her do so relatively poorly compared to all of that, like pent up potential means that she no longer has that star power potentially think she still has cachet with a chunk of the party that well educated intellectual left, and that significant those people have a soft power here because of the alternative is not running. I dont know that she would be like better off today in her career. If she had run She still has really good favorability. Among Democrats, she has fifty fifty favorability with registered voters overall. According to that, You got data for a clearly progressive politician, that's about Canada best you can help or really, particularly for a woman, given that what we saw in twenty sixteen allow the countries

still is sexist. It like, I just think, she's still in a good position or next up is MIKE Bloomberg. I don't feel like. I should have to go first everytime, but, worse off, worse, worse, maybe we don't need to belabour events, but would Wendy One like to offer some kind of unanimous statement. Did anybody Renee? poor campaign and make Limburg twenty twenty I mean you could argue, is very successful because he jumped in very late, which is normally a death wish report. much money and got now you want. Americans, I hey- I mean who did and he vanished like what forth and delicate, certainly that at an, but it was a bad reputation. We need knocked out. You lake cut off all as staffers there's something very famous Lee and left them without health care, which they weren't you happy about. So I can imagine that those two oh yeah

in terms of like bad stories or bad moments. In your campaign per day, I think Bloomberg had one of the higher rates of all the candidates are next up, PETE Buddha Judge yeah better off. Would you prefer to start run the other I now we can be guy, I'm just being we better off better and better off. Clearly he went from being more of a small town to sector transportation, yet biggest better off, except for Biden yeah, maybe even better off than by it. I mean- I don't know I guess injuries occur, it doesn't get any higher than president, but from like vice president to President is less of a b then mayor of South Bend to whom he is today on the party problem. I mean he's getting experience running a Washington position which, like he didn't have four years ago, our two years ago. Is it fair to save

might Bloomberg and people at a judge had the largest gains and losses in the twenty twenty primary. I do not think Limburg had the biggest loss, who are correct and will have. It will have to be gone nets up his Tom's dire push, push, ok, legitimate, and I feel it is I'm in the middle and see him one way or another yeah? I would push also, but take it decibels, Duvall Patrick. He could hardly even ran on an effective and fair trade. test him here, but does anyone have a feeling either way? I would include him. Like he, has a lot of promising things on paper and make that kind of came came to be so maybe worse off, but I dont know. I hear that because out of it,

point it started, feeling like getting in the race was almost like a joke and that people started being annoyed with the more and more people who got into the rings yeah. I feel again only a push, because I just think people only there remember they ran all right. Next up is Michael, backed twinkies people. Dont. Remember he's a senator from Colorado, I think better off carry you know. I think he probably went from one in ten thousand people knowing who he was too one in nine thousand, so that's an improvement push on him same reason. I just don't think people remember here, and I agree with my guy- thinks the fact people know who he is now is help fallen even after twenty one. You know it. Clear that it was I I didn't verses from. I think I saw Bennett looked at as like someone who could potentially run again according to you, Gov forty, three percent of people have heard of Michael

Bennett, but regrets aware the other guy would have never Gustavus at high better. MAX, maybe Michael Bennets, overall winner here, the next Wednesday Goodwin everything better way, ass. I say worse, Alex ok Nathaniel definite better. Why worse Alex I fight it out? Well, clearly it help him in New York. I mean it in the beginning, but like where do you go now after losing a presidential reason and losing immoral? I mean that's my argument. Has viruses like to losses and we did an article on what happens when you have two consecutive losses and what that means for you in the future. So I think the New York race he's worse off having on putting the presidential race. He was better off Does that put at me and he was a nobody- is literally just random business man, one of thousands of people, and then he became a kind of a minor slumber

with a democratic politics. He was able to run for New York, really knew he could have taken, probably a cabinet position or some kind of fish in the by demonstration. If that's the road he had wanted to go, he had a wide menu of options which events muttered. Yet I agree with that: they're not Alex its compelling gave us, I think, that's the way to square the circle better off far better off. Presidential then squander mother, maybe just uptown here. John Delaney form a representative from our and I think he was the first person to enter the twenty twenty raise. The democratic primary I'll say better. I think the same I mean it's a worse because he has become the butt of jokes on twitter, Nobody wants twitter, isn't real life Nathaniel! You have it what is done. Delaney, Israel, life right now, ya. Think about how people know who joined to any abbot not on press is good press I think John Delaney is less popular than maple banner. If I may make a bet on one wanna bet or look it up

he's one. Sixteen eighteen per, and popularity. Fifty one percent memorably mission There- that's not bad so better off, I was right. Corey, bucker I gotta, say worse off tagging and say words. I was at the same time. He like perception of him, was he's a happy one you're before his happy warrior after I mean I, don't know what he's taken from twenty twenty that has helped him now like, his big bang in Congress rain. I was like police reform negotiations, that of light on nowhere. So I just really dont know his presidential run improved his standing in Congress or anything definitely seem running again I'll, say that, but not necessarily think he's a better candidate because he ran twenty twenty

I think the way I would put it is, I think, before twenty twenty- and this may be this says more about me than Corey Booker by like a fire had to guess, I would have thought quite Booker would have done far better than he actually did a lot of as a huge field of candidate. So maybe that has more to do with it inquiry bucker, but just a fact that he ran and did pretty poorly. I think tells us something maybe about his appeal or his skills and politician or the way resonates or something. I was a bit surprised by that. So I think water who, on Castra better, a better better? I guess I'd say worse, but why? Worse still, there is a case for both. So I think he fell into a similar trap that maybe even quarry Brucker did and some of the other people who ran for president, like Chris Angela Brand and to some extent, even calmly, Harris which was like watching what happened during the two thousand. Sixteen

primary and thinking that the energy of the party and the future majority within the party, or even the current majority within the party, was with the progressives and took a lot of pretty far left position? that her him in that primary. I think and may well for him in the future, for example, criminalizing crossing the border, searching eyes met a care for all these were policies that became clear as the primary progressed, we're not helping the candidates who took them and in fact the people who ended up rising more in doing better like closure, Buddha Judge, rejected them and ultimately, of course, the nominee and then President also rejected them, and so I think that some of these candidates have freed themselves with kind of taking those far left positions and twenty twenty primary and Castro, I would say, is included because before that you didn't have a clear political identity, he was a cabinet secretary mayor of a big city in Texas. Think if you

off a little more, maybe read the direction that the political will for blowing a little better, be better position during the future. There is a nice had better is because, like you say, Castro basically entered the rays of light, not much of a profile. I mean he was always pulling in this single digits, but because of the Congress haitian I had on. Was it like section, one thousand three hundred and twenty five, whichever one released border crossings? That was a big flashpoint among Democrats and he started that conversation and I feel like he was in a position to talk about border issues, probably in a way that other candidates, wouldn t by virtue of being from texas- I don't know I can say like whether I think he would run again what his future aspirations are. But I mean he already has a job was like a new political analysts, writing NBC and MSNBC. I think

nothing else. He just raised his profile and is helping pushing Democrats further to the left on border and immigration issues saw a report recently, but he said he wasn't gonna run for anything in twenty twenty two of a lot of people say that and then end up running, but you I think I agree with Alex, are next up is commonly Harris better- some seems like it should be easy that are better, better, say better better than on the guy needs an explanation, steep book, worse, yeah, worse push, I have made a difference, but yeah I'm push. My argument is: he represents more of that or at least of the Democratic Party and by didn't just want it and now has a vice president, who presumably will occupy that lame. Once Biden is done serving as president and running for president. So if steep Alek has presidential ambitions

He just surf now has to wait much longer. I mean that was a shot if he has private actual emissions, whose term limited out as governor he switched to the centre race and twenty any lost by a respectable margin. I don't think you're, considering the degree to which he over performing its clear that his popularity is governor was front of mine from antenna voters more so than any presidential campaign or positions he may have taken another key put himself in a position like some other people will talk about shortly, where he staked out some unpopular positions that but then hurt him back home on earlier positions that might hurt him back home, but you have been talking about. The next person analysed better work. Yes, I was given This is my nominee for biggest worse. Ok, I disagree. I think that is on the up and up whom no way it was a terrible, terrible decision parameter again. I think his standing is worse and taxes, but nationally it's better. Oh no Nobody was making fun of them the entire campaign NASH.

He was. He was a darling after twenty eighteen, he was at the height of his powers. He could, under Senate in taxes and twenty twenty and maybe and whether you would one but probably would have aquarium. While again he could have been better position to run for governor now pulling IKEA, Stacy Abrams type of position, but he was made fun of by the National Press for some of his head scratch. Your comments like I was born to run, and then he he staked out some positions on the left that I think, will kill him in any future state. My runs in Texas, yet that's I say like in Texas. I don't think he's sending improves, notably with like his hell. Yes will take your air fifteen's, like He ran is more of a modern against crews and obviously he can get out now if he runs very governor and twenty twenty two, but I mean right now, he's getting involved heavily. The voting rights fight now think he's trying to position himself

kind of like Assisi, Abrams Way of helping with that fight in helping thought the state which I think could be better for him. If he does she's run twenty twenty four, whatever other cycle I'll call it a push between hours and then they both make compelling cases over it, build the plaza one billion times. Worse and worse worse, he curve kind of work done shoring up his legacy is New York. Marin, instead is legacies, gonna be tied up with the fact that he was in Iowa during the like out or a storm or something- and it's not good, not a good luck. I reverenced out from one point during the primary that there were only two candidates who had net negative approval rating. months democratic primary voters, and they will build the Plaza and Marion Williamson. So I think, maybe that's all fleet to say, but we should ask about Marian Williams and how's she doing I haven't. I am being on it, may be that in itself is an answer to better worse or same

she's an interesting one cause. You could argue, I mean like she was also kind of the butt of jokes, but she also went from being with extremely minor figure. Well, I guess she had a following kind of among her own fans. but she did get a national stage and if her goal was to improve her name recognition and a brand which may have been true them, maybe she's better off by our own standards generally did have a couple descents debate moments. If I remember Think about it this right. If she wrote a book today, word she make more money from it. Then if she wrote a book in into fascinating, should read. It has also meant that asked that's a great standard the answer? Is yes, and so therefore, any area pretty clearly what I had only where could beat around the Bush, I probably why she ran, and so I did

The conversation here is like what will other future people who are thinking of running for president going to take away from the class of twenty twenty? Is it going to be that, like you, should always one for president cause, there's no way or hurt your career? I think for some politicians you down We can hurt your clear and we ve seen accurate. I think for people who just want to improve their name recognition get a longer emo, listen like sell books cynically. I say why not I think when we do this again, we should do it like better off. Worse off push ambitions for political office in Louis on the nations politics and then like selling books. Those are the three categories, three by three major yeah for twenty five candidates. I know we got a wrap up here, so I wanna I wanted to

mentioned some names and let you talk about any particular winners or losers amongst them. Eric swallow John Chicken Lieber, J densely South Molten, Kristen, Jellyband, TIM Ryan way. Nazism Joseph stack think those are the only ones that we didn't catch, who so far I don't think there's much of note for any of them. I've always on christian children to be a really interesting politician, but you know I don't know how much I could say about part, twenty, twenty effective,

prospects, yeah, she's she's in initiatives session right now, because it seems like there is progress. Finally, on the work of her career, which has been military, justice, reform and sexual assault cases and stuff like that, I'm not sure how much of it, and that is due to the presidential run. So I think I protest they push on that, but I think being jovian right now is proliferating it. I agree that candidates, illicit galen, none stick out as having a dramatically shaped the party to where it is now. Are you better off worse off or push after that segment gale? I am better off for having go back into the depths of my brain to remember what the twenty twenty primary was like, because, apparently you know of Europe who use your, permission. You lose it, and so I got it just keep the parts of my brain that are still thinking about Marian William said, and the twenty nineteen democratic primary debate. Still firing Alex better offer worse off better off because it was fun Nathaniel.

I'm always better off. Having spent an hour with my great colleagues I myself am. I got yes, how didn't want to remember Eric swallow sick, I could have done without that wow wow, saving the relentless shape for the very end? Well, let's leave it there. If you disagreed with us on any of these listeners feel free to tell us, I'm sure you didn't have to be coaxed, but there you are, you can email us, you can be treated us, but that's it.

For tonight, so thinking Michael out anything you thank you. Thank you can check out five. Thirty, eight that calm. We got lots of great Olympics coverage. Oh yeah, that's a really good point. The Olympics are have folks. You can learn how to judge Olympic State bordering on the five thirty eight website. What more could you ask for and all sorts of other great stuff track? Metals? It's all there, five and eight dotcom. Until later this week, my name is given droop. Tony chow is in the virtual control room Clare, budgetary Curtis. As on audio editing, an MRI Ladys are in turn in Ghana, touch MIKE emailing us. I cast at five: thirty, eight dot com. You can also persuaded us with any questions or comments, as I mentioned. If you're a fan of the show, leave us a rating or review in the Apple pie cast store or tell what about us thanks for listening and will cease. her