I have a dictionary that I got as like Book award for my high school literally the orders a book, but it's like a nice book and it has like your name. I count like the there's little like living now it's like I'm wants a call like when you like you, open it up and then like on the cover. There's like that, an inscription yeah exactly. I guess she didn't use that dictionaries. Since you don't know the word inscription fair enough. What We started this. We got a little regressive way. huh oh and welcome to the five thirty politics pipe cast: Iron Galen droop. I hope everyone had a good holiday weekend and I'm ok junior day because its be shortened week this week will only have one podcast episode, and that is this episode.

So today Tuesday, the Senate plans to debate the freedom to vote John horror of Louis ACT. It is the culmination of an effort by Democrats too, right, past voting and election administration legislation in the new year and its almost certain to fail. Last week, Democrats across the spectrum. In President Biden lobbied the Senate to change its filibuster rules, so the legislation could pass with a simple majority, but senators, Joe Mansion and tourist and cinema have long been opposed to those changes. Tonight, we're gonna take a look at why Democrats pushed to do this despite unmoving opposition what's in the bill and how voting laws have changed on the state level, since twenty twenty were also can ask whether a new poor deserves all the attention it's been getting. Can it be act, released a pull last week, showing Biden with just a thirty three percent approval rating. So what should we make? Outlier poles from high quality, pulling firms

Here we need to discuss. Is politics reporter Alex Samuels Hey out here, Galen also, here with us, is tack and politics, reportedly Rogers Hickory, everyone and senior elections analyse Nathaniel, Rachel, Nathaniel Hygiene or swords die of red into this you're gonna want to cover too. As I mentioned last week, when it back released a presidential approval pole showing thirty three percent of Americans approving of the job Biden is doing that's pretty low. The poll was picked up by outlets all over the place. It was the subject of standalone articles in USA today, the Hill Newsweek Fox than your post and war, it was featured in broader articles on the New York Times and discussed on cable news, including MSNBC, and, of course it made its grounds on twitter, perhaps that low thirty three percent number got a lot of play because it puts a numerical point on the idea that last week

was a bad week for the president. Longtime listeners of the podcast will probably be able to guess what our paneless think about writing individual articles based on single poles, but it's a new year. So let's have the conversation about how to treat outlier poles. first and foremost, everyone are the news stories about this pole. A good or bad use of pollen is the following, I mean feeling you kind of took an from under aspect is pretty obvious how you feel bad deftly bad so across the board, any redeeming qualities to this use of my thinking. Again speaking for my as I have done many times on the spark ass, I think the poets cell wasn't necessarily a bad pole. I think

way that it was covered in the media was bad, so I think there are two different ways of looking at us, but I put the pull itself as a good use of falling totally fair. I think, for this use pulling example will focus on the media, then we can also focus on the pole, but so, across the board from media no redeeming qualities. We happy that for talking about pulling I don't even know if that's a silver lining, that's ok! You know when you're putting the results of this pulling in it. Why so many people don't even repass a headline they're going to see that and possibly assume that that is the pulling average for vitamins approval rating, which it is not an and think that that's really where its add at this point in time, which is concerning police spell out. Why else? This might be a bad use of pulling for other reason, donors to the five forty eight pike, hast community or one time listeners

may may have forgotten. I think it's just that when you have a robust universe there to me, some that are right on the money in and close to the origin and they're gonna be some that are off to the sides and that's a totally normal byproduct of pulling in the method of sampling and stuff. Like that, so, as Alex said pull itself, isn't necessarily a problem, but when you focus on the outliers instead of focusing on the majority of those that are in this fatter NEO lower forties range that problem, it would necessarily be about media is appalling if they also wrote an article about every other border came out. That said that his we're waiting was forty, two percent or forty five percent. Forty one percent or whatever it is, but when they give attention to this one poor, that's the problem in and it does kind create these narratives asking so it is essential as a bit as well, if their mused and we are that sound binds operating, was ten points

better than what we see on the average. That would be equally bad, but I dont think it would get the same kind of coverage cuz that kind of from the narrative that binds during early poorly and nobody likes him, which alone forties approval rating, is also not great, but this kind of station licence. The truth, yes, so, as you suggested, are approval tracker, which averages all of these poles shows Biden out of bout of forty two percent approval reading his disapproval reading out about fifty two percent, so that thirty, three percent approval diverges significant, almost ten points from our average. How do we know when a pole is an outlier opposed to say a leading indicator will often we don't, Then we should be aware of the possibility that a pole could be beginning of a new trend. But of course you don't write in article about a try.

based on just one data point. It would be more understandable if the next three Poles had come out saying the same thing and then then, maybe there's an article there. I say that in this case I think we have a good reason to believe that this is not the start of a new trend in its just a methodological cork from Quebec and that's because their previous, all in November also showed him with a thirty six percent of poor rating, so they kind of consistently been down on buttons approval now may they're right and other pollsters wrong. That is a possibility, but I think that, on balance, you have to consider that a less likely possibility on the fact that most their posters are getting it wrong. I think that suggested something kind of in the methodology of how a black is pulling people that gives Biden a lower number, but Willie attained from thirty six percent in November to thirty three percent. Now, basically, cognac agrees that binds approval is stagnant. It just doesn't agree with where it is,

but everybody's can look at that thirty percent number and be like oh man, that another big drop, but it isn't even according to equip yak. Other three points is not nothing right. Even according to quantity. Oh, it's! It's probably within the margin of error, actually haven't looked at the margin of error of this poor. It is. The margin of error is three and a half points together, go. The notice has not statistically significant, I know you mentioned that it may be a methodological difference. Do we know what that difference might be? That's showing Biden that a lower priority? So I think one, clue is they're. Gonna back has an unusually high number of undecided. I think it was thirteen percent of understand. voters and that also, maybe that suggests that they're not pushing people enough to give their opinion on approval reading and one clue, I think, was that this pole had seventy five percent Democrats say they were approving of him. So maybe if they pushed those democrats more that might increase, and maybe his appropriating democratic and Greece, which would help, is overall numbers, but it could be a case

people who are abiding supporters, better, just kind of feeling disappointed, say in his performance, but kind of when push comes to shove would say that day prove him or maybe but a finer point on it. They think that he is doing better job than a another republican president would be today? Is the first point wasn't that kind of what the white? I was saying as well: they really sunlike internal memo. Anything actually has got a hold of it and I think one of their critiques was that, can it be was allowing chimney. Respondents to give a dont know answer when asked about how bind misdoing as president and that might undercuts himself support for him, but most power, show Biden currently sitting out like made too low. Forty percent now think it's entirely surprising to have a poles, especially given just what's happened.

The last two weeks, showing that mean sport for the president, has softened over all the other out some numbers to that. As you mentioned, Nathaniel, thirteen percent of respondents said that they didn't know you're not going to be. I pull in our average overall, it's five percent of Americans who say they don't So a pretty big difference there. He and I think there is a case to be made for when his disapproval much higher than his approval, that people who say they dont know are maybe We are on the side of approving him and dont want necessarily admit that a weird position to be of a right like that's, no, my dear bad, sign Fisher and obviously this pole. Even if you look at our average, bind the parading isn't good. So we shouldn't get carried away here, but I do that's a true, the thirty percent and more to the point. Maybe when you're talking to me I presented, the disapprove number is more important and it's not like you here, thirty three percent and I think a lot-

we'll do assume from that that has disapproval of sixty seven percent. But it's not. It was fifty three percent and this ball. if this was a leading indicator rather than an outlier. As the veil mentioned would have said, that similar number in November? That should have been kind of predictive, and we may be would seem more poles close. Do that number in December and thorough January, but we have it and instead Clip Yak is just once again shown the same number of show. As we have all said here, we don't have to focus on just one pull to know that Biden struggling so these may be about use of pulling to all of the different media outlets that wrote single pulls off of this are spot lighted it or what have you buy? We're still talking about something that is ultimately real here. That bite

is struggling and, as we mention on last week's podcast, only trumpet a lower approval rating. At this point, in his first term, do we know from looking at maybe this pole or other issue polo why Biden is struggling. So much at this point in his presidency is that on certain issues are with certain voters. I didn't some polling over the weekend about Americans. Approval of the administrations covered response they were comparing to apply, last summer where it was above water and now it is much lower, and I think that's a combination of factors and which really is, policy related and people being dissatisfied with how the federal government has responded to overcrowded and continuing problems with the virus, but part of, as also maybe just takes a sense of what grounds of the pandemic. Continuing when I think a lot of people had hoped that we were out of the woods, so it's like, partially the administration for partially just circumstance when it comes to covet yeah tick, Alias

why a show that Americans are just becoming more and more pessimistic about the pandemic ending soon, so I think that's having an effect on vines approval, and then you add, on top of that things like economic uncertainty, inflation Congress struggling to pass Bilbil, better voting rights legislation and a number of other things I mean sought entirely I say again that the public is unhappy at the current moment: YO actually also have an average of buttons approver. It specifically on the issue of the pandemic and last week it actually when underwater for the very first time this historically, and a strong issue for him and in fact the EU waste as a better approval rating on the pandemic than he does, overall, which dialysis point suggest there other factors at play, but even on the pandemic. Right now he's sitting at forty five percent approval and forty eight percent disapproval, I think we're all seeing some

erosion of support among Democrats, who were very hopeful that the beginning of this administration in our having full control of Congress and the White House thinking hey we're gonna be able to get a lot of stuff done and then perhaps because I ve been so many difficulties passing some of these really big billboard bills people are starting to get disappointed and feel like if we can't get stuff pass now. What hope do we have if we lose control of the House of the Senate, yeah. You bring up a good point out to you also mentioned that maybe people becoming disillusion because progress and bite and have not been able to pass and sighing in voting rights legislation. Or what have you can we look at the polls and tell how much of vitamins disapproval is based off of people wouldn't be inclined to support democratic, maybe anyway, first as people who may have supported the president by now,

well, we can break down by party yeah. I think it's a mixture of both I mean, obviously the vast fast majority of sulphur dioxide. Republicans disapprove of Baden in those people probably are never going to vote for him, but we have also seen erosion among Democrats, as we mentioned earlier, and some other swing year, groups that probably voted for Biden in twenty twenty. So I think it been a pretty steady decline. I think, among demographic groups and parties and with a copy of that. Obviously, as expected, Democrats and democratically group still support him at higher rates than Republicans and leaning groups. What do we know about the trajectory from here is a reason to expect things to get better or worse, never seen everything's could get that, but it may be the biggest thing. We would need to see right now. Nor defer binds approval to bounce back as some sort of movement on the pandemic, whether that be We're case numbers. need some sort of second economic stimulus.

If bill, I don't know if that's even in talks are now in Congress, but I'll have to assume that something pandemic related wouldn't do happen, order for vitamins, membership simply change here, so it's interesting right, historically, presidents approval readings only get worse heading into them in terms, but also likely, you don't have many examples of present already being as low as by men and, in fact, to the the example, as you mentioned, gale in its Trump and Trump actually gained ground between now and then at terms, so actually there's a probably a pretty good case for the fact that its not necessarily the president's, consistently decrease for the it turns out that they revert to the mean, and so, if you look at that Trump example I think there is some reason to believe that Biden might come back to you, at least

maybe a high forties approval rating or something like that, but certainly can count on it. A sample size of one there's only one president has been down him in such bad territory as binding as right now, and so we should assume that that's gonna happen again all right. Well, we will, of course, keep an eye on that here on this podcast. But let's move on and talk Democrats push to pass new election legislation, but first today's podcast is brought. You buy shop, fire that's the sound of another sail on shop. If I, the all in one commerce platform to start, run and grow your business shop, if I gives entrepreneurs the resources once reserved for big business, so upstarts start ups and establish businesses alike.

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so, let's first dig into what is going on in the Senate and the Democratic Party and then we'll take a look at what's going on in the states. So I mentioned, provisions in this combined bail titled, the freedom to vote John, are Louis ACT. Nathaniel youve been reporting on what two different laws under consideration might do. What's the cliff notes of our What are democrats trying to do here? He also it's kind of hard to give a cliff notes version, because the bill is, as you mentioned, gale and so expansive, but basically it would. It would do several things so first, it would, as you mentioned, kind of standardized voting laws throughout the states to be, and basically as the liberalising possible definition, so it would bring excuse absentee voting everywhere. You also have mandating same day voter registration everywhere, Mandy online voter registration mandating automatic voter registration. They would make election day a national holiday. It would all

restore the right to vote to islands, except for those currently serving in prison. So nationally people on parole or probation or who have finished their sentences would be eligible to vote once again on a campaign financed front. It would require money groups to disclose their donors, and it would also require Facebook and Twitter to disclose who spending money on political adds there it would also try to tackle election subversion by allowing election efficient to sue if they are removed from office without cause and their opinion, it would increase. Protections intimidating election workers. It would increase the penalties for tampering with voting records kind of along the lines of what we saw in Arizona this year. I would require more preservation of voting rights, words, and they would allow voters to sue if their vote isn't counted, which is kind of like a safeguard against throwing out election results so that

stuff that was in the old freedom to vote ACT, but this is now, as you mentioned, Galen the freedom to vote Jean Louis ACT, which is a fusing of the freedom to vote ACT with Jean Louis Voting Rights, ACT, update, and so this would basically the holes in the Voting Rights ACT that have arisen as a result of recent Supreme Court decisions. So, for example, the shall be counting beholder case which basically guided the idea of states clearing their election laws with the federal government. So that would bring that back in. It would impose a new formula for deciding which jurisdictions have to do and one and then it would also basically undo the decision last year in Burma, which v Democratic National Committee, which basically mean a lot harder for plaintiffs to prove

racial discrimination had occurred in voting, so this would make it easier to prove those cases which obviously would help the Democrats and voting rights advocates side of things were always arguing that laws discriminate against people of color through the first idea for legislation like this was past, actually in the house after Democrats to control in twenty nineteen hr one How much has this all evolved over the past three years? They ve definitely had to scale back their ambitions, so mansion essentially killed before the people ACT, which listeners might know better as HR one and can return it to this freedom to vote ACT which has a slimmed down version. That said, I obviously it still quite ambitious, as I mentioned, with all those provisions, but it does take out some of the provisions of the for the people act. So, for instance, before the people ACT had a whole series. of ethics, reforms that are no longer in the new building. considered. I would also make

smaller tweak? So, for instance, the original HR one would have basically required an exception to voter Idee laws where voters could assign under penalty of perjury. That I am who I am, is no longer the case under the freedom to vote ACT, although it does standardize. The types of ideas that states can taken include some non photo. Ideas, for example, New bill would also not as tightly restricts, purging voter roles, which a lot of voting rights groups have identified as a problem. Kind of haphazard or perhaps not so haphazard and more targeted at Democrats are young voters. Are people of color James of registration walls and then also a big public campaign financing plan, and that was in the original hr. One is now highway scaled back. It's actually optional now in the freedom to vote ACT, which, of course, new makes it essentially toothless.

annual, I dont have you know this, but I seem to recall nature one. There was a provision that would wired states to use hand marked paper balance as opposed to about marking devices or other kinds of electrons. Is that still enough for the people are not hostile America faster jacked interest? So as we imagine going back to two thousand and nineteen the house past each are one last some are the house past the freedom to vote ACT and the John Louis Voting Rights ACT. The legislation has been held up in the Senate throughout twenty and twenty one doesn't have sixty votes and there isn't majority support to change the filibuster, algae, been during reporting on the politics behind all this, why his majority leader, Chuck shimmer. Returning to this issue now I think there are a couple of arguments here. One could say that Democrats don't have a lot of other big ticket items on their agenda right now, specifically, given that build back, better talks are kind of stuff.

at the moment, and other thing is that I think the timing was pretty opportune. For Democrats, you know, which is wrapped up first anniversary of the January six attack on the capital their King Jr Day was yesterday, and I think this was Democrats attempt to tap themselves As you know, we are the pro democracy. Po voting party Republicans are not so. I think tie me again big thing to do with that, and I wrote About- says, no store that will not last week, but I think I found the day. Democrats didn't have a tonne to lose by making a moral push for this, even if they knew it was going to say again. I think we saw this environment speech in Georgia in how forceful democratic leadership has been over the last couple of days or weeks on voting rights, but I think there is a belief that they had to at least try to make an effort here, even if they knew was going to fail. Why

isn't there. A super majority support for this legislation. Why can't democrats find ten Republicans to support it and then, on the flip side, why won't senators, mansion and cinema support changing the rules of alabaster wool formation. In cinema we keep coming back to this idea of bi partisanship. I mean Cinema gave the speech on the Senate for where she not only defended the filibuster but said she views moderation and bi partisanship, verses, passing major laws with just one party as a means to an end for a healthier democracy, and mention has essentially said the same thing and statements were sought like they disagree with the substance of what's in the bill. It's just that they don't agree on tweaking Senate procedure to get past and for Republicans you know there are

reasons why they don't support this bell, but I think one thing that I keep coming back to this idea of principle. I just can't imagine republican supporting a bill that will be perceived as a win for the Democratic Party, especially when you have folks like Donald Trump still espousing lies about the twenty twenty election and that it was a quorum quote stolen. Obviously we know that south case we have a number for public can lead legislatures who just finish passing slew of bills, that restrict voting and arguably could make it harder to vote now coming elections. So I just don't think it's likely we're going to see a lot of republican support on this specifically, it seems like there is some appetite for you know reforming the Electoral Count ACT, but I dont think there's a big appetite for robust federal voting reform legislation on the Republicans

yeah? I saw the Senator Susan Collins, along with proud some other Senate Republicans are discussing possible ways to change the electoral count at they suggested that there were some other changes. They were also open to easy clear how far they would go. How likely it is that that would actually get sixty votes so far. Everything I'm seeing on the Electoral can act to suspend like a group moderate Republicans kind of getting together and at least discussing a potential legislation there. I haven't seen any like real movement there Mitch Mokanna was talking about it at one point I haven't heard him say a ton about it, and at least the last week or so so, im not sure if there's actually appetite there The big thing for Democrats is that they view these discussions on the Electoral can act as a distraction from bigger voting rights or form. So I don't even know if you're gonna get a ton of democratic support for doing something. There may now may be supported begrudgingly, but

and imagine that this will be the end of Democrats. Push for voting rights, legislation, yeah feeling discussions are only electoral contractor, a totally different beast because, what's being considered, there would be sort of defeat hanging like the worst case scenario, is not imposed, all of these restrictions on states and how they run their elections, which is what the for the people act would do and republican for a number of reasons are against that. As its mentioned. Many republican legislatures just passed a bunch of laws that would be, violation of these new rules, and so understandably, they don't want to have the federal government coming in and telling them how to run their elections there. I'm just add some source of violent role. Counteract has busily loophole in the trumpet, and his supporters in the Congress tried to use to start counting what turns out in twenty twenty and streamlining man, perhaps removing that possibility from the process in the future was the focus there.

So that's more about the election subversion, where a group or or something partners, It is being done to refer the democratically found election results verses, voter rights, which is about it. spanning access to the pools and making a kind of universal so that its easier and more accessible to both even more narrow than that right. It's about elections, subversion by Congress, it An address things like new laws. In states that are allowing non partisan election officials to be taken over by more partisan actor, so it really is a very narrow fix. I think, Democrat if they stated their open to that and things kind of shift towards that. be seen as they're, giving up on their bigger voting rights, push, which is a very high priority for a lot of activists within party in, and they would be very upset if Democrats moved on from that at least trying Alex said, but I also think that if they,

through the motions here with filibuster and the voting rights bills die Rights are left with literally no option other than reforming the Electoral Count ACT. I bet that they will go along with it, because it is better than nothing for them, and I do think that to answer you earlier question Gale and that that could pass with sixty votes, because at least ten republican senators have at least expressed openness to reforming electoral, counteract obvious, that's different from a proposal that's down on paper, but clearly, I think there could be by persons port for this, but it would only happen after the meteor bill is dead and buried. But there that's one thing in this voting rights place has been worked out. Republicans they are not supporting nice. Republicans are the big like obstructionist to this bill getting pass, but regardless of whatever Inter party stuff is happening with mansion and cinema to filibuster.

So if they pass the electoral counteract and that's done by partisan vain and adds to the public, it just looks like some sort of like voting rights or form. I don't know it seems like their argument. There gets a lot less clear because, like How can you say that Republicans are not helping do anything on voting rights? If your next move, just you push something forward that does have by partisan support, bright Alice and I think, the big reason why Democrats aren't going along with it at least right now, because for the same reason that you said earlier, Republicans don't wanna, give Democrats a win. Democrats, don't wanna go Republicans ammunition that that undercuts their own arguments against Republicans in saying the Republicans are not committed to fixing democracy also, if either for the people ACT, fails were expecting, and then Democrats refuse at that point to even consider reform the electoral colleagues. I think that's not gonna, do them any favours either with them with their voting based who wants to see some kind of progress made short one question.

Have your algae mentioned that there's this sort of view amongst Democrats at this point of what do we have to lose by making this big push to pass this voting rights legislation in the process of doing so. A lot of Democrats, including moderate Democrats in the Senate, have come out supporting changes to the filibuster. President Biden has come out supporting changes to the fellow buster. It looks like, after all of this support for changing. master. They may not actually change it. So now, they're all on record as saying that they support changing the sixty vote threshold. Does that put them in a tricky position in the future when republican want to change the filibuster and they are fighting back against Republicans who want to do to pass their own legislation down the road I mean that's, definitely arrest that Democrats are going to have to wrestle with I mean if the filibuster doesn't fall here for voting rights, I wager Probably will, if s been one Republicans

again, the White House and have a majority in both chambers of Congress out assume that, should that happened there be some GEO P opposition to its and later what we're seeing now with mentions in among the democratic side. But if republican get a majority in the Senate. You know five thousand three hundred and fifty four votes. I bet the filibusters Khan, but I would say the same thing for Democrats if they had five thousand three hundred and fifty four uhl55. However, many members in the Senate, like we, wouldn't be having this discussion right now over whether voting rights pass Galen. Are you asking thoroughly consequences to politicians flip flopping on their position on this Berkeley. That has really seem to be the case. I mean, if you look at some cream court domination, in a year of a presidential election as an example, fairly just change your mind on very important issues and their consequences. Both like on one hand. So I understand Democrats really want to pass this legislation on the other hand, part of the com

season of the past. I don't know how many years has been. The Democrats are at a disadvantage in the Senate. She would think the Republicans would be more likely to have a majority there in the years to come. Wouldn't democrats want the filibuster in place to kind of ensure that Republicans camp pass the legislation that they want until they reach that higher threshold of sixty votes like it seems like if the Senate if it's Republicans Democrats should be the biggest supporters of the film Lester, he adds an interesting calculus see. I think that there is that. Argument on one side, but then there is also the argument that Democrats, or never ever going to get sixty senators, whereas that is attainable republican. They had it as recently as two thousand nine rang right that they had a lot of senators from red states that are not gonna, be electing Democrats. I guess I should say literally never, but I would wager it'll be new. Be decades before Democrats get sixty seats in the Senate again and so having the filibuster in place, basically

sure is. The Democrats will not be able to pass their full agenda, whereas republicans there is still a chance that they could so there. Are these arguments kind of on both sides, but yeah? Definitely to your point, and I think that considering the Democrats stand control the Senate as soon as at the end of this year. They may era well, be regretting all these statements are putting on the record right now and there can be putting a lot. eight and people like Sudan, Collins and Summer Caskey, to fill the roles that Joe Mansion and cash in Samara filling right now for Democrats, what we're marathons think about all this directive now what the filibuster is by and large according to the polling, they have feelings about it, role in american government and then beyond that, how to Americans feel about the legislation. The Democrats or trying to pass by changing with all buster owes looking at pulling on the filibuster specifically, and I think that most Americans don't have strong opinions about the filibuster, and I think that there is also plenty of evidence

just to filibuster, is not atop concern for many Americans so There is an August cleanup, Yak Pole, just thirty. Eight percent of Americans said the filibuster was quote very important to them, and then there was an April on with survey we're just nineteen percent of Americans called themselves quote very familiar with the filibuster with foreign, in saying that they weren't too familiar with it or hadn't heard of it at all. We, remake of Mister Smith, goes to Washington. Just stay Everybody's memory, but actually Cayley mistress to us and, of course, that type of filibuster isn't what the socialists are looks like anymore. It's not the talking, filibuster anymore. I guess. Presumably the remake of Mister Smith goes to Washington. We would just feature YO one party consistently walking closer votes for a thrilling political drama that ok, so when it comes filibuster, it sounds like Americans are super familiar with it, the pulling than I have

seen about like do, supported or not seem like roughly a third support and roughly a third don't support, but again for a public. That's not that familiar with it, it's hard to say how much coupling means beyond the filibuster itself, Gordo Americans, they arrived the election legislation. What we did find- and we were doing our initial story on why Democrats are bringing this up right now we found a September data for progress. Pole ends in that pull likely. Voters were given a short description of the freedom to vote at an eighty five percent of Democrats in fifty four percent of publicans said they supported at strongly or somewhat and then after that, respondents learned more about the various provisions of the bill and even so, support remains overwhelmingly high with members of both parties yeah. I think that these, Election reforms are generally popular, although, as we discussed with the bill back better plan and everything when you kind of

have so many provisions packed into one bill. The individual provisions can be popular, but then the sum total can be less popular because it gets politicize, but I think that the bill overall is popular, but the issue is that it isn't a huge parity for folks. So, for instance, gallop consistently asks people about what the most important problem facing the country today is in their most importantly, one percent said elections or election reform. So there is a gap between. people's party and on hand, but the intensity of that support or kind of the privatisation of that's pork on the other and so Do you think that a lot of the pressure that is coming from Democrats to pass this bill is coming from activists and more of the elite class of Democrats, and so in terms of maybe depressing turn out in the mid terms, I mean in general. I think that the mid term cases is pretty well baked, but I think a lot of these elites are probably

both for Democrats, no matter what. So, I don't think it's so much that they are losing those votes as much as just generates a lot of grumbling and probably negative, pressed a kind of his getting feed it in to this idea of, Britain's, also not doing anything on the economy and is not doing anything on the corona virus and that's generally weighing by down but another a lot of votes to be law, specifically on the issue of not passing voting rights right, five building on this bill. It contributes to the overall narrative of the Democrats not being able to get anything done which could have an impact on voters more so than the other beings kind of single issue, voter? Who only cares about voting rights and and that's how they decide? Ok, so it sounds like you spelled out several reasons why we dont think the freedom to vote John are Louis ACT is going to pass that the filibuster rules will not be

changed and the laws in the states surrounding elections will be in twenty twenty, two, twenty twenty for what they are now more or less. You know, without these big changes to how fast elections are conducted Cayley, you ve been doing a lot of reporting on what kinds of changes have taken place on the state level since twenty twenty. What have we seen lots of There have been building off of reporting that Nathaniel already dead, but we have seen hundreds of voter restriction bills introduced across many states about fifty them. actually than pass into law such as the really big push coming, mostly from Republicans to enact more voter restriction laws. Some of that is kind of expected sort of like a rolling back of the voters action that we saw due to the pandemic. We would expect that some of those expansion but where they're, just because of this weird scenario with the pandemic, that they will want to claw back to sort of normal,

but it goes beyond that. Just like the sheer number of of bills that have introduced goes beyond any kind of expectation of just rolling things back and the type of bills there's fewer. These put some of those ones. I do things as a you mentioned earlier, like putting more, Control into partisan legislatures over elections than we previously had before. That's kind of new has a lot of experts really worried? How wide spread is that so one thing I have encountered over the past year, plus of state level, election laws being changed or restricted is that we often times here about the kind of most high profile restrictions. So in Georgia, for example, the legislature proposed banning voting on Sundays, which is of course, one souls to the Poles happens, seems like a pretty clear targeting of the black communities. Access to them

Does that never became a law kind of it was left on the cut him room floor along with some other extreme restrictions that were proposed throughout the country. So when it comes to like, what's the most extreme, things had been proposed and what has actually become law were how much have state level laws truly, changed over the past year plus verses. Some of these things that more alarming and got a lot of attention, but never became right so I mean some of those laws were enacted, suppose really extreme ones, as we saw in Georgia a lot of the sort of next step. Back from that were passing alike. I I believe we're at fifty now that have been enacted into law. and you think that's interesting- is that it's not only these high profile ones in swing states like Georgia, I briefly. a story on the site, and I focused on Montana, which was not to pick on Montana for any reason, but in looking at our sort of database of all these laws, I was struck by the fact that Montana had six new

about a restriction was passed into law over the last, here, even though there was no accusation fraud happening there, it's a republican state everything kind of what the way you would expect it to and still there was this pushed to change over laws and make it more restrictive, and I thought that was really fasting- that it's happening everywhere, and not only in these swing states and high profile areas and what kind of changes did Montana so I'm on ten and they had a new voter ideal that even acted for photo Idee. They got rid of same day registration, which was something that was really popular in Montana, partly because many voters live in very rural areas, so they have to travel kind of far to get to a city centre or somewhere where they can actually castor ballot. So, rather than having to make two separate chirps wonder register when the vote, they could do it all on the same day, which was convenient. They also crackdown on balance, harvesting lives or some of the measures that were put into place there

You mentioned that the Euro Montana republican State, even if this were an attempt to try to make it harder for Democrats to vote in elections. It doesn't seem, like Montana, would be a prime target for doing that, because it it's not, maybe all that contested at least on the presidential level, but you kind of reported out the process by which support for these restrictions has just become part of its kind of like the life blood of state level, republican power, these over the past year. How did that process happen or a lot of these bills were inspired by the big lie that there was some kind of election fraud. When I was reporting on Monday and I spoke to a state senator there might come, who walk me through sort of his thinking behind it? which was he had a lot of constituents who believe the big why they thought there was widespread fraud and twenty twenty and he felt of responsibility. He told me to try to address that in some way. Try to find some Nixon talks that they could make to tighten up election security in their state to try to appease

voters that we're losing faith in democracy, losing faith in elections and the polling shows. This hasn't really changed. Anything and faith in elections, especially among republican voters, is still very low, especially compared to prior to the twenty twenty election and passing all these bills doesn't necessarily seem to be having that effect. and meanwhile, and it is restrictive to voters. You know whether its restrictive to the point that it should be illegal, that's up to a court to decide, but the fact of the matter is its harder to vote. If you dont have a photo idea, and now you are required to have one that is harder than if you're not reported to have one. That's just the reality of these. These laws and these bills that are being passed, and so you see what Facts state, like Montana, their voters, rights groups, or students for native Americans who are saying that this making it much harder and its target. These groups in particular, who rely on the same day registration who rely on not having to have a photo ideas. Your called shouldn't, maybe you'll, have a driver's license right now and so

there isn't want to push back from voting rights groups saying that this is prohibitive so that's what we ve seen in republican states over the past year plus, what's happened in police states when it comes to changing elections are administered. Are they copying the federal legislation from Democrats and implementing it in their states? Yeah blue or democratic, controlled states are actually expanding. Voting access, I'm kind of in a mirror image of the way that republican states are restricting it. So, for instance, a few new states join the the all male election club services states. Now that will proactively male ballots too registered voters, so California Nevada, Washington D, romantic believer the new additions to that list, and then you have lots of blue sky it's doing things like expanding or even creating automatic voter registration. That's new, Connecticut Hawaii. I think among maybe others, Delaware. You have those days, six

early voting in getting rid of excuse requirements for absentee voting, although so this was put on the ballot actually in New York. November and actually that failed at the legislature has been trying it's been making statute. ray changes. Where can and then putting these matters before voters when it has to be a constitutional amendment where it I want to ask your question here, because you would have thought that in New York Yours might have wanted to pass these voting changes. You know in the most recent election we had here in New York state, they asked voters or the ballot question. Do you want to allow voting by me without an excuse, you wanna be able to register. On the same day as you vote, you know, New York, state, pretty democratic state voters rejected those things you know in a sort of direct democracy fashion. What's up with elegant, do voters actually not might these laws

I think that the proponents of evidence still says that voters like to have more options when voting here. You see that an Paul after whole Paul, but I You think that there is reason to believe that there is a discrepancy between what people say and in the polls and when there actually faced with making a change, especially when it would be kind of a proactive constitutional change. I think p are they tend to like the status quo and they're, not sure about things, and that can create a no bias in ballot. Questions like that in it, Obviously, the twenty one elections were very good for Republicans, there was disproportionately low democratic turn out. I think that that obviously hurt and specifically with those ballot measures? There was organised campaign to vote for them, but there were people campaigning to vote against them, and I think that you just see what happens when one sided actually campaigning on the other. There was definitely a much more organised no campaign and where I live, further north in in Ulster County, there was a lotta, I know site.

don't need completely anecdotal, but I did see a lot of no signs for those propositions in particular driving. That my more rural county in New York cutie was a bad use. it's not even a pool- that's not so bad bad use of Anna As we all know, it was an act of year environment, so that may affect support. Although also summit You can be surprised by how people actually feel about these things. I think most people would assume, given the democratic parties position that over well meaning opposition to voter, I d, but it turns out when you look at poles like actually a lot of american support voter idea over welling with a majority of american support. Further, I do also it just UNICEF can be tricky and complicated and, as you are all mentioned, the isn't the highest in salience. When you look at the pulling its people may not be super familiar with a lot of the details, in any case, we wait. I what's happening on the state level, what's happening on the federal level Alex you, though, that may be one

The reasons Democrats were pursuing this right now is because they do not that much kind of left on the dog it that they can get done, given that build back better is stalled. Where do Democrats go from here? What's next, they gotta your left in charge I mean like Daniel was getting at earlier. I think the electoral counteract is a potential next step for Democrats, especially if they try this again. They made this huge push. It fails. They may have an argument for going to the electoral cannot, after that, efforts in rumblings that, like build back better talks are like kind of happening. In the background Silly was surprised after Biden Speech in Georgia that he wasn't more forceful, specifically on mansion and cinema than being big road blocks for voting rights. Legislation passing, but then we are I'm talking about this internally and maybe the argument there is maybe five once mentioned in it good graces, incase bill. Backbiter talks come back again, so I guess

he that, but beyond those two things you mid term season is upon us, I guess the democratic. Want to get back to campaigning, but I can't think of a lot of big ticket items for them to focus on. Should this next push on voting rights, there are well, we will see what happens. Of course, we are were courtiers. Part Casper for debate gets under way doesn't seem like there's that big of an open question, but who knows? Let's leave it therefore now. Thank you, Nathaniel Alex. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. My name is Galen droop Tony child is in the virtual control room Clare. Budgetary Curtis is on order. Your editing and Emily even as key days are in turn you get in touch my emailing us a pipe testify. forty eight dot com. You can also, of course, tweeted us with any questions or comments. If you're a fan of the show, leave us a rating or review in the Apple pie cast store or tell What about us tell friend took forever thanks for listening and Wilson

her.