Check one to do. I excited, or do I sound tired, maybe both maybe loop is tired Jesus. hello and welcome to a late night election night, five, thirty politics, but my name- is Jody arrogant and if its not election night anymore, it is when this morning as we are taking this many of the results are in at least enough to come to some general conclusions about the results from the nights are here to discuss it senior politics reclaim alone, hello, clear, managing editor, make the current hello maker everybody native still trapped in the world, also the ABC set somewhere. Hologram filled extravaganza, it's actually augmented reality knowledge

But before they did, they call are augmented reality. I've learned more about tv news in the past couple months is talking hooks here doesn't, talk in a meeting with them need is not with us, because he is still stuck in the matrix somewhere around the ABC side. But look let's let's talk about this a little bit. There are a number of things dont know at the time of this taping bullet talk about what we do now. The top line result is that it is a split result, mostly what we expected with Democrats, regaining control the House and Republicans retaining control of the Senate, perhaps pick- a seed or to along the way so lets us but with general reactions Clare. What are you what's on your mind, one someways, what we inspector was gonna happen, tap and right, which is of the Democrats, took the house and the Republicans seem to be having a pretty good, but in the Senate, so I would say from that to use a tired, five. Thirty eight term, let applying point of view.

It's kind of what we expected it to be I will say thereof: the Florida to me as a state was a surprise. I really thought the Democrats had a better chance I think I was starting to they click. Ok, I think the Democrats might wind Florida, which you know like it is an interesting slip from when he sixteen, but as we I wanted to take this the democratic and bill. Nelson and the Senate conceded to erect Scott the Republican you give em the democratic may have Tallahassee, who was running for governor conceded Toronto. Santas earlier tonight. So for it to me, as a state was a surprise, although again the top line in general The night was not super surprising. Yeah my army, my reactions, the same both The house and send a result fell like well within this me

the part of our forecasts bell curves, like almost dead centre. To be consistent. We shouldn't that does not make forecasts more right. My then, if they fell in another part of that, like eighty percent confidence interval, but it really in in the house, and Senate went as expected. Password poles were generally rights with what that were landing in the middle at alcove kind of hinted at the poles were generally pretty good. Yes, right now. I think that you know it'll take days days, maybe weeks for the national popular vote to get sorted out. People will become converting in California for forever bud. Going to deny we had the generic ballot. Eight point: seven percentage points,

I think the last number I saw was a projection that had it at nine point, one point to less than half a point off. So really it things at the top line, as clear says, went when, according to the the script- and we should talk more Florida. I do think that one of the biggest surprises yes, so I mean look, let's talk about Florida, so I mean I think that there is obviously a lot of interest in the races there and we didn't eggs, actually waiting used. The word momentum on Monday show, but I think that we sort of India It is that a lot of the last round indicator, WAR breaking more favourably for Democrats Florida show that maybe that wasn't the case was there's something else going on there. I think Well, one. You know that the late movement towards Democrat it was pretty marginal. I note that, as we said it was, it was just a little bit

I want a way and for all the results, are, come in and look at this stuff, but I think that there is probably a story to tell about democrat underpants, warming in the South EAST their loss governors, race and senators from Florida. Clare said: you know they don't like loose I thought so it's not it's not here. It's not a creature. The same, but it looks like Abrams S, gonna lose in Georgia Governors race and then look like Florida. One of our contribution Nathaniel wreckage. An analysis of every special election in the Trump era and Democrats over performed almost everywhere Florida, though, was like the outlier where, Republicans had performed best there trump, approval rating Zelda relatively well in Florida just like a lot of data suggesting that far dislike the red side, a purple and weeds, we ve talked about this and multiple,

cast, but just how good the the floor, in Georgia, the Democrats, position for winning. Was this turn out model fer? You know. Voters to did to reach levels that were higher than twenty sixteen and it, I think, that's for me. It was an those were interesting, races to watch, and so I'm not I'm sort of curious to see what Democrats Take away from those two losses, whether it's ok, those were upheld, fight to begin with, because they are you know, southern states with a certain kind of electorate and we should still. You know we should still trial, turn out model for twenty twenty and don't concede to the super.

Centrist, democratic types of gear, its or if people say well, we need some super centrist, democratic kinds of candidates. I don't know it's kind of. It goes back to an old but old, twenty six posts. Twenty sixteen argument I I think people look Guillaume in Florida is gonna end up losing by like a point you now I dont think in terms of interpret what it means for fear of the Democratic Party writ large or like that. I dont think you should get carried away. There. You know given losing by point, isn't that much different than government a bipolar. Yet I just wonder in the narratives pupils ever corporate. I thought I totally agree with that, unlike Joe she hasn't been called the bullet, say articles, readiness in the governors race where'd Red Walker up by, like two votes in Wisconsin governors raised, what's a he hangs on ice.

Think those races and we talked about this before, but that those words I'd like to have the big its way and what the what is coming out of this right now clear- and I were talking about this- it doesn't feel like clean now says this is the kind of election it was innocent, in the blue wave that everyone, I think of tat, I actually think it is so No, no, I mean I. I will just agree that I thought she like one of these elections were anyone can come out of that writing their own merit of so I loved picked up, didn't come out of this. I make the case for why you should call the simply way. So here's here's why, The best kind of measure I think we have of the nation's mood politically, is dead National House Popular vote, which you, think it's gonna be a nun. In ten percentage points somewhere in their day. That is the largest part of

about margin since thousand eight, which was which was a really good year for Democrat its larger than republican tat in their waiver of ninety four, its larger than I'm about in the way of your two thousand six, its larger than public and wave years of twenty two and twenty forty now recovered. Thanks to the house, districts are drawn both as of gerrymandering and because of just sorting in a way that their the Republicans so that general mood gets filtered into the house and get skewed a little boy. Republican Democrats are so gonna pick up thirty outside right, which is at work. That's a lot of you The son map is even more republican, so that blue wave cry she's into the Senate Map and gets even more, filtered out and skewed and blah blah blah blah. The governors races? I think Democrats are southern and picking up a few governorship net, but that's why I think those

do high profile. Races will end up having sways because if they went democratic way than than the the wave narrative is easy to even seems a little bit like your bet, you're really backing into that that wave narrative- you making a lot of like us- you're. Making a lot of stipulations were ended, almost feels like you know, in order, for it be counted, I think in people's perception of a wave, it almost like you're, giving people participation points and then calling it because part of I think for in most people's minds A wave would consist of a really good performance in the Senate, as well as the house, as well as the governorship. I I totally agree with that and I, but I think that's not, but how people should think about it. I think people should think about what Americans want, and then Do the work of saying yes, this?

they blew wave but because of structural factors didn't manifests itself in this or that chamber will. Is there any chance that these structural things emerge because of what you just said as a potential Is that good, an alternately be seen as the lesson this election? I think because of Games they made tonight or this year. I think Democrats were probably worked her chain Some of those structural factors in terms of how districts are drawn deficit can't get rid of the Senate but I don't know it just like I think, if they were smart, they would make their structural factors that I think the campaign on Clare you ve Rinaldo, but about us like do you feel like do you think Democrats will make The process of electing people and more central issue, as opposed to this election was healthcare. What's her I,

its becoming more of a possibility. The are Democrats to make it an issue I mean when I first started working at a politics magazine? He was back in I guess twenty eleven twelve and back then like four wonky p, all gerrymandering and voting rights was very much something you talked about, but voters beyond people who who were beyond communities who were being actively disenfranchise for dinner? dangerous grudge like resonate with voters people didn't really. No, they didn't give a ship that they didn't vote on it. They didn't vote on voting. Then I do think that, like the democratic electorate insert, it is, to a certain extent has like Walker

and I think it's an end its not just like. We are not just talking about people, seeing you knows, actual racism, but it's about people saying like. Oh this is just it's really. Just killing us in these in these. Elections in lean earth, if it for many years, The argument mica that it's that tonight was there was actually a blue wave, which I think can help people it's an interesting argument, but people are gonna say while did manifesto, self. It really stinks to lose all the time, and I think I think that it really stinks to lose all the time line. Will get Democrats mourn there. You know it's a blue wave, but there are dunes. What's you know ashore wall and other eaves exactly either an enemy August? To that point, you know their flipping five governors Epps at least

goes a long way towards being in a position to address the most structural issues. A lot of those do happen at this at the state level. So we'll see, if that's a long term effect of tonight, I want, keep talking about some of the major themes that we'd been covering throughout the selection and see how they manifested themselves to me. But first I want to tell folks at today's podcast tonight part cast this morning's part gas. Whatever terminus is brought by we work when we work was founded in two thousand ten. The primary focus was to provide freelancers and entrepreneurs with an environment that allowed them to engage with and benefit from, a network of like minded businesses. Setting that encouraged innovation and collaboration. Well, we work. It provides a range of solutions for medium, large and enterprise businesses as well, such as private office space for the two hundred people and full floor custom build up These include all the things you want office like enhance security, privacy and the ability to express your brand identity, while at the same time me

attaining that innovative design, flexibility and high level service. The companies have come to expect from we work from innovation labs to trading floors regional headquarters to global campuses, we work is designing, building an operating environments and empower your people to do their best work, which is really the goal of any business when you people are at their best, so is your business visit. We work dot com, and a location near you today we work that come entered some sort of tired, Fuchs state or reading that, but let's come back, and let's check in on some of these major themes that we were discussing throughout the election, probably the one we talk, the most was gender, the gender. The role of women, particularly particularly those college educated women that we focused on a lot to do do we have a sense of whether they place their mark on? The selection? Is tat, so women while what's is pointless. Put it this way. Men were

The only group that voted for Republicans, demographically everyone else went went for the Democrats. If you're, looking at the nation over Oh sorry, Susan it. Let me clarify. White men were the only demographic group that voted for republic. Everyone else went for Democrats, which is These are going by CNN. Preliminary exit polls year which can change a lot, but it will. White women went forty, nine, forty, nine bigger if you like if you look at rates engender, why men are the only ones I went clearly for rank, and so I do think that that why colleges hid away? Women continue to be an interesting group to watch. I think we are to make we made all these. You know caveats in the live bog which, as you know, we have to our south feel the election results in the demographic stuff, and so, Examples are not giving us a full picture, but

as a little glimpse into into what's going on. Yes, I think when women white women are white collar, women are an interesting demographic. Non Algeria, white women continue to vote Republican yeah. I think that one of the two Why is it so? A current at these will gentle about, but seen an exit polls, White college, educated women voted democratic, fifty nine percent to thirty nine percent, that's a big gap. Is that a big shift from from TWAIN? Sixteen wasn't not really, as there was a big gap in twenty six day right, it's a shift from before. Before that from pre twenty sixty. Why Non college, women voted Republican. Fifty six, forty two. I think that that is tat. A little bit compared to twenty sixteen. But it's not tight that much you know one podcast we did. We had a pull that showed. No

on college white women favouring Republicans by six point. There was one of those paused at showed like a democratic, huge tsunami right, but here they they went republican by fourteen points. That's a big difference so oh education. I think the story, the story here it appears to be an agenda stuff. Can change? Is that education? Can ten used to be a huge dividing line and that gender, while big factors in the in these elections, did not override totally education. I mean So the thing we're liquids see the education gap as a proxy, for Class and what I mean by that is a miracle: is this a person's perception of where they stand and american society people have educated versus non called educated. So they can t be kind of. I mean it's not rockets.

Instead I am saying like were there, a divided country, but it is, it is It continues to be really start to watch that you know class divide open up its as far as public perceptions of american politics and just to see such a stark divide, warm em. It's a proxy for class in and, as we talked about in the preview package, A book identity, identity crisis lays out how its also somewhat a proxy for views. On race and views on gender, and so you know that we continue to see that the meaning for that divide is is not that we needed this, but further proof that does issues can type continued to divide the country another place where there is a continued and perhaps even growing divide is between rural and urban. We ve also looked at suburban and ex urban, but I'm I was. I was her son to hear on one of our colleagues earlier.

I point out that when Dan Donovan lost ONS Staten Island in and in Brooklyn, that was the basically the last district that you could kind of. Plausibly qualify as urban districts by a Republican in an entire country, and now there are basically none mica, gonna talk a little bit about, we are talking about the specific before the taping, about the sort of on the different kinds of the community urban, suburban and so and how they shook out tonight. So K occur and the eggs a pause Democrats, one. Urban areas, sixty five thirty to the two parties tied in suburban areas. Forty nine forty, nine and report. Tens one rural areas. Fifty six, forty two- that world but actually isn't as huge device as I would have thought in twenty. Sixteen. It was sixty one thirty four, so it's narrowed to fifty six. Forty two:

the other thing I would point out is ok. We have these tables that we were back in the lab log, Romney Clayton districts in Obama, Trump districts and those are like In general, diffrent mixes suburban ACT serve in places. So it's oversimplifying, say: Obama, Trump districts are are more ex urban. What you see is The Democrats, one maybe like six and ten of those races as opposed to so far it looks like an Mommy Clinton. Were, which are more suburban. Annex urban in general Democrats are probably on track to win like eighty five percent in those or something like that. It's a meaningful, different tack, The point is that those energy I have only one if it helps I was thinking about the peace sums.

Turn urban districts are now just other thinks that a good example of the peace Claire's got right, which is about how it. All the narratives you could draw. This- are messy them. You know yet looks like requested a little bit better and Romney clean districts. Then Obama trumped districts bizarre, like a huge, overwhelming differences in our lives. Get this from a regional lens. We talk of the southeast. Maybe Obviously, a lot of the focus has been on the MID west. We talked about maybe that kind of potentially swinging from a Trump stronghold too stronghold in this election. Do we have any way to characterize that as a region and how it perform this evening? I mean not yet legally take the example of Ohio, which is a full on mixed bag with shared Brown pretty we winning reelection as democratic in the Senate and

mike to wine. The republic in winning the governors race, I think there are some tickets footing going on there, which The wine and brown are very well known names in Ohio, so maybe that has something to do with it. So that's interesting. Wisconsin as we're taping right now it's super super close, I mean it's, look. I'm looking at the New York Times LIVE results page further. The Walker avars election and its adverse every whatever he's the heavers. Sorry, it's it's tilting read, but it's so close, so it. But you know the Democrats- one, the Illinois, gubernatorial race- I mean that's Illinois utter now. It's I don't know why. I think was common. Will we hope the results of that we'll help us he sets out. You know, a little bit of net having Tammy Baldwin, we should say one real action

ok, one centre, races in Minnesota with cancer in Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, lost in Indiana there was no allow China, I think, because in the Senate, that a lot of incumbents, but that, but they had a pretty good men, midwestern run governor I think, is a little more of a mixed bag where Wisconsin plays an outsize role, but. I think I'll hire as he said, is a big deal. That Democrats didn't went mad. They want, She again, they want Illinois. You'd have said that, if you, I think Democrats did better in the Senate. Maybe in the midwest than they did in here, and governors, so you know houses is harder to look at and profit. Probably we need to do a more systematic, let, but if you look at their at their listed seats at flipped, There are several them, you know: Midwest

but it's on their Illinois six hour one. I were three Kansas. Three. Were you in time an expansive definition Midwest Michigan, live in Minnesota to Minnesota three Minnesota. Eight. If you want include Pierre, Pierre five, Pierre Sex Peer, seven, Pierre, seventeen, a lot of the d, Kratts, gains are going to come out of midwestern midwestern ash regions? So yet again it it's like all the narratives assertive. I I think we're locked this election say: oh yeah, the midwest swung a bit factor the Democrats rooted twenty sixteen regressed to the meat ok. We all have to get to writing and sleeping and editing this part, gas and so forth. I do want to say too things one is Nevada where's your data, its. Three hours since paused closed and we still have anything which is remarkable. I think any any thoughts. I think the thought is that day

dont want to release result swapping affecting people stolen line to vote. Aha by causing the cup etiquette, keep poles I got it and then I do, I think we should talk about we can end on taxes we mentioned briefly, but I know before we started recording Moroccan of sharing our thoughts on what the nowadays will be coming out of that sat race, better, of course, losing by a couple of points. So how should we do this narrative verses. What the narrative should be the other way around. How do you want adding tackled MIKE what think the narrative will be about taxes. While the reason why I came up right before we are recording is that I saw some headline that that said, you know o o. Works like celebrity a man or something nationals What binational celebrity did a man which I just think is still but it is a republican line about work, I totally understand it as a partisan lights.

What people set about it was the Mccain line about Obama. You know, and she doesn't? It is the biggest slavery in the world, but ass he ready to lead and there We are trying to do the same thing with a work, but it's like actually the slavery thing irked, because he performed in Texas and raised a whole bunch of. And he ll his way into what I would say is a presidential run. I think he'll be, I think, I'll be in the past. I'm so happy. We got to twenty twenty way, he's gonna, be in and the like right away, in the not right away, but above all in the know how in the media mix yesterday and like by the way, by the way. Spare me your adding a mere where he's like albedo, says, he's not gonna run type references, so on the savary celebrity thing who would have thought that

the well known and and well liked what help in politics or that a super enterprises. I think that the fact that he did when taxes were for closed. One of the unit is Reason Democrats really had no chance in the Senate once results started coming and so too the losses, laws but a campaign there. You know people have been talk about turning Texas Blue forever and I his campaign there did a lot of work. If your Democrat in texas- and you are eventually start winning state? Why races there. I think you will look back this race and be like, oh, that that moved a needle for us we we got

parties are state party, wheels gone again and then, if it was so much like an ethnic, as happens with Texas words like there was Wendy Davis and sheep that big blown out she had blown out and it was. It was a similar NASH. Interests. Celebrity is kind of thing and the fact that it moved it that much more forward in it with the overall campaign is interesting yet to be cleared This is not that he lost by right. It's alright. This is actually real. The sort of almost lives up to the high yet that he lost by three percentage points out is a really close race. She one thing I think I like I do want to mention, because I just saw some numbers come across turn out. We should, Eight tonight really was through the roof at the times. Just really they come treated. The his estimate, hundred fourteen million votes cast, which I know people were so late,

in their higher edge it like a hundred two hundred fly plunder. Fourteen is huge by comparison aid, only eighty three million in two thousand fourteen, but I guess it means that turnout was was high, on both sides, which I think we We knew going in and I think one of our questions was design. All this democratic fund raising can a mean great, enthusiasm on the democratic side and, like I don't think, we ve discussed on this package is a clear, very uncertain. Well, I guess my could disagree with me, since he thinks visible way, No, I don't. I don't think I was like a huge loosen army. I just think of his eyes. If if someone asked you what was the mood of the american people on twenty? Sixteen? He would say it was democratically aiming at. There was anti trump and Trump is unpopular like winning. There our national popular vote by nine points. Like lot, that's a lot of points. No, it's too that's your

yeah and I'm giving you a hard time only because it's like a mare The american system has just set up where, like you when both you got it's gonna win. You do you're in it and its and that's what I think is is hard the reconcile is like the council, a blue wave in some ways, not meaning as much because of the way we ve set up our system of representation. No, and I think that back to turn out, as is I'll, be interested to see what what Giovanni turn out looked like that so I'm putting us I'm letting us all off the hook. We can go on with our nights because we welcome I had a bat right now. I bet that the sort of narrative that you pay three c enthusiasm kicked into her are to hire gears and, like the last several weeks of the campaign- and I think that might have been true. So I'm us, I'm letting us all off the hook we can go on with our nights, because we will continue to talk about this in future pod gas.

Heads up folks? If we listen to this in the morning which I'm assuming you will be this afternoon Wednesday afternoon. There will be another podcast following up both on the new data that has come in and digging into some of this. More information, as we get results and exit polls, so forth and so forth, and maybe meat will have wandered back over from ABC at that point, but I will think you make a coin fun thing night. Higher Clementine, thanks to you thanks. Killing jukes producer, tiny child is in the control room. They had been with us all night as well shut up to them. Even even touch my email address, podcast, five, thirty dot com about this, If we're claiming the city non now it of election, send us your one sentence: what you think the narrative is of and me and Mabel written on the podcast tomorrow, emails pod, guess, if I and thirty that common tweet at five thirty eight politics

thanks again for listening.