If you want to turn your rain often was done. Television watch Emily in Paris on Netflix the acting a straight up, terrible like they're, not even trying to be good actors. I agree that it's not like great tv right, but it's nice to see a different city and people in a completely pretend world, with like a glass He seemed to it right with no one's rang masks yeah. hello and welcome to the five thirty eight politics podcast, I'm doing droop. We are two weeks out from election day and starting today, we're going to be doing daily podcast through the end of the campaign. So the final stretch is officially upon us today. We're going to ask a question: that's been on people's minds The outcome of this election more certain than it was at a similar point in two thousand sixty as we sit down to tape binding

meeting by about eleven points, nationally he's leading by collision seven points in the likeliest tipping point states and he has an eighty percent chance of winning the election according to the five thirty four trust also tonight we're going to discuss what full democratic control of federal government could look like? Should the party with the presidency, the House and Senate, this fall in particular, which divisions might become important and which part of the party is likely to be dominant, and here we need to do all of that are editor in chief mates. any good day Galen today. Also here with us, is sooner politics. Writer, clam alone, Heckler again and also of Us- is singer politics, rider, Perry, Bacon, Junior, hey Perry, cartoon so happy Monday, two weeks till Election Day house, everyone feeling or looking forward to some vacation post election, given that I think we're not allowed to Americans,

any other countries and even within the EU s travels with a dubious. They don't have it till it forward do, but you know another day in Paradise, but no think that I'm a guy named loves the election right. It is superbowl. Now I've made a pepper, perfect as ever and elsewhere, is that everyone else's take or is anyone excited for the next two weeks not exactly. The next issue is only because we have a lot of his like Paul Exe, This is why, let's all analyze it like you know, we have to say just average the poles and I find dialogue to be that. Did you missed this Paul? That kind of stuff is Kennedy last thing to me, because nobody after elections is Sorry, you guys were ride. We have just about silly staff. Need no one's gonna come back here We have to do a lot of soda debunking, silly staff. In my view, it

Agnes election, because it's all new, but it's all the same, and we ve had for years of sort of learning the behaviors of Trump and like learning the behaviors of how people react. News in a partisan way said. Conall like saw sucking from that side of things and as an eight point Now myself for do so. Take your cyanide, but this morning everyone and unaware you're, like we have like not five, thirty, eight as a whole, having left to say about the election but like this is not action were like the models. And tell you anything that interesting by in this way ahead in the polls, and yet there is some chance snapped, occur hi, but some nontrivial chance that Trump could win, unlike you are betting on the outcome. Wagering than whether trumps chances are say, five percent or twenty five percent are pretty relevant? That's a big spread, but as a practical participant in the in the outcome. I'm not sure, that's necessarily a terribly useful distinction in just oh well. I was gonna

This way, but now skip it, because it's only a five percent chance said of twelve percent of this very consequential thing happening like doesn't really seem that prudent were all kind of now, these very careful chances around corona virus which, if you're under seventy, has like oh point, five or one percent chance or something I've been fatal, some chance of complications, but there's like not that much to say from like a paw analysis standpoint are so good. In everything you all just said: let's talk about how this election is or isn't different from two thousand sixteen, and what that tells us about how durable by and leaders and I'll just say. I know that this can be a sensitive subject and that when thinking about elections, of course, it's important to rely on examples beyond just the most recent election. But this is something our listeners have been pretty curious

and also its the sub text of a lot of the coverage were seeing this cycle. So, let's try to address the question is thoughtfully, as we can so to start out fish days before election day in two thousand, sixteen, where we are right now at this point in this cycle, Hillary Clinton had an eighty six percent chance of winning and Clinton. How about a seven point led nationally. So is there any reason to believe that this election is more over. At this point, then that one was fifteen days out: the probabilities are pretty similar, yeah fourteen percent chances of forty percent chance or twelve percent in trumps case. Let me look Obviously, we talked about doing this segment

and part of the reason why do segment, ailing, because it would give you like a little bit of pushed back like you're kind of teasing in the intro. I think the whole point of a site, like five thirty eight, to encourage more rigorous, more empiricism, is precisely to get you out of making a comparison based on a sample size of one. We have a small sample size period and show lectures, but our model is based on basically all pulling in election since nineteen thirty six theirs of I'm, so that more detail in Poland races reuniting seventy two or so onwards so economies, all the data, the best we can, but she had two things twisting right. You had a shift in the final ten twelve days because the com. what are other factors about three points towards trumpet. Then you had appalling polling error, which average two or three points in the key swing states oh for Biden right now he's ahead by, but to use Pennsylvania

here as a stand and can counter the tipping point state intermodal vitamins up six point, seven points and Pennsylvania. As of we're taking this, if you re three point swing towards Trump likened to succeed, then he's up by three points: they give a three point: pulling air, ok them it's atossa bright, binds ahead by a point. Seven points now we're fighting over these naked ballots in Pennsylvania. Maybe it's going to litigation whatever else so sure you know a thing shift in trumps direction and there's a whole year, then Trump could win, but the question What is the likelihood of that and answers about? Twelve percent right- it's worth- Canada number comes from its like, not totally apples to apples to twenty. Sixteen Biden, has considerably larger lead in national poles. Then Clinton did in the tipping point states its a bit. or similar, and that's Bayswater model uses to forecast probabilities now. The point out there. A few other differences number one we

how can you about like a high water mark for Clinton at about this time in the race kind of after the excess Hollywood tape, so you're going to someone's high water mark to the current state of affairs. you're, gonna, implicitly assume you too high water mark when it might not be its. I think a little bit dubious here too, there are fewer besides, this year's abides already at fifty two or fifty three percent Nepal is generally around fifty one percent. If heads of another swing states so Trump can't we merely by getting the undecided said flock toward him as he didn't when sixteen he would need to have. Sure changes of opinion at this point, but number three which temporarily on. I think there is national uncertainty related to male voting our model seems that, because a lot of people are voting for the first time, I can make turn out hard to predict. It was hard to predict in the primaries when you switched over to mail voting and that adds additional uncertainty in both directions. so you know I mean if your comparing Clinton was in a good position at this point in twenty sixteen, we think the type of add a who is in that position, is gonna win

whenever I was eighty five percent, eighty six percent of the time, the fact that her die came up on the one in seven in the fourteen percent. Doesn't pay securely have bearing on whether binds would it's a pretty different race now so he's in it at least originally stronger position yeah, I want of those two Perry and Clare, just in terms of thinking about the ways that this election is different from. the kinds of stories that we ve been covering or how stable the poles have been and why they ve been so stable. How do you try to describe this from you know covering this in the press? I think the biggest difference is the pandemic and the prevalence of mail in voting and the increased rhetoric surrounding the validity of ballots and the open talk that there will be a lot of litter nation following election day. I think in past elections there hasn't been that sort of all we're all gonna get to know the recount lawyers really well kind of foreshadowing

and that is very much the tenor of this election. I mean I've been voting now fur quite a while in others, been what thirty million ballots cast so far, and the twenty twenty election ballots will be counted and be received in the week falling election day in some places. So I think that's the biggest difference in all this. Is that almost haven't you conversations. One of the conversations is the sort of quota quote normal one around the model in our case or in our journalism, and then there's the separate known unknowns of the days and weeks following election day, where we, say. Well, let's say by is the winner, he doesn't win by Tee K points, then we won't have a great amount of certainty in certain places. So I do think that there's like very separate conversations that are happening, that sort of get intertwined but are actually different things and that's the nature of this election is that we have to balance the normal model stuff and then the novelty of the pending.

Male and election so poor, that charging discussing this is like my neighbor ass. We couple days ago, who's gonna, win the elections by endeavouring unaware- and I said to you- I have all the same information you have. Cuz. I know he reads the sign and raised the same data things. I think part of the thing is the people who think that Trop winning in turn will be the end of democracy. As we know it me, saying that as a twelve percent, is happening at eighty percent is not happening, is not reassuring to them or whatever. Is there like a twelve percent chance of something happening that is like so earth shattering is still worth thinking about? I think part of it is my sins allow the questions were getting from readers. Lilies, I'm getting are more along the lines of this thing. I really don't want to happen. I want you to assure me, it's not going to happen like here. Is this not all actions work, and I think this kind of why this is a fluttering topic is like people are really ask.

The real level of certainty that I think we ve stood for years, trying to communicate. We can't give, but people are not comfortable with uncertainty. Is my I'm not a psychologist with us? My impression, having worked for years now, there's someone Can we learn certainly period? I would say I think, twenty six million, people have voted already so that again, is that my expertise, but it does seem to me that if your Joe Biden, The situation with your banking in a lot of votes early on is different than twenty. Sixteen MIKE It is the people who were voting early are more likely to have decided in it. There's an undecided swing to Trump. That's out is twenty six million, but if we're too, about fifty million people. Maybe voting before No third in environment in which, by MS ahead by ten points, I'm not mad expert here, but it seems to me that would

good for Biden and may be better than for Clinton, because what does the most early voting yeah? I worked. A comparison to two thousand and sixteen, and so far, at a similar point in two thousand sixteen for comparison six times as many people have voted in twenty twenty yeah look a mean if you're looking for some time, of existential certainty that Joe Biden when the election, then I mean this is not the place you're going to find Nepal, save America. Maybe right I mean and holds this lead where or it expands, then I'm gonna get ideas you know may be made to high nineties, but again, if you have an event Is it important, as I think, both by an interim supports, would say the election is then even a two percent chance is something worth considering with that's I'd like what Perry said. If I were look to have reasons to worry a little bit less as a voter then certainly the very large number of male early vote so far which, because you can track party region.

People who voted is very democratic, it doesn't mean that trunk can't come back, because the whole show this happening. They expect it to be speeded up. I vote in the early vote and then for a pumpkins to make up for that, at least partly with an election day vote, but it does so that the poles are right about that. First part. At least it does show this law. urge early democratic turnout is occurring and so If one of the ways at Trump realises this twelve percent chance is by democratic turn, up being duped that looks a bit less likely now. So in after way, trump people now should be hoping that the Poles are right, that there will be this big trumps. Urge on election day because in a world where we weren't looking at poles, we look at these numbers. We look on my guy Democrats. Her head by thirty points in return battle. So far this is gonna, be the most ethic landslide since Mcgovern Then that's not where the polls show. The ball show that binds pretty far ahead, but not Mcgovern, we're six and territory and then

should tightened some without whose election day boats. So I think we get two kinds of questions to be fair toy lessons were is very much like? Can you give me a level of certainty which is simply not possible in these kinds of events and the other? this question is all right: I'm looking at of this data, I'm seeing that there are fewer undecided Biden is already at fifty percent, nationally or above nationally and in some of the likely tipping point states as well we're seeing that this has been a steady or election in the polls in general were not seeing that kind of, up and down where we're close to it and that we saw in two thousand sixteen, so why Their probability is still so similar when some of the fun Mental number is that we're looking at are quite different. We'll get look, I went, push back a little bit on the notion that the probabilities are similar because Clinton peaked having an eighty six percent favour but firm. Most of the election. She was not as heavy a favorite is by MR comparable point in time and the minute that the communist or kicks image

equivalent day? That was and shall go to being much less of a favorite than Biden is so yeah quit net or high water mark again? Looked pretty good post excess Hollywood? Our model did detect that the state poles were better for Trump national polls. That was not as big a spread as we're seeing right now, but I, I dont know what readers are are looking for and by the way, the just because by now clear some fresh. We could survive between sixteen style pulling error. There can be we're pulling her. There was an eighteen, forty, eight, for example, that doesn't make him safe. So, basically, like the less you think about when sixteen, the more saying you're actually gonna, be there is a certain amount of tweet Venus. our readers and and people who write in the questions. I because we live in this very, grow new cycle agents of people who are kind of a tune to I hate. To put it this way. Attuned to the

the little ups and downs in terms of its a bit of a game of vocation of like all with the last two weeks, the election. Let me hold on for this rollercoaster but like if you pull back and if you sit down and like the arm chair and think about it, your way. Quickly, just like asking the model, and if you write to us asking us to kind of soon Your anxiety for two weeks or too, like give you a certain amount of call Ming Calla mine for your brain, but you just gonna, have to like sit with the discomfort to use therapy talk that this is just a thing that you need to wait for and that it is uncertain, but there has become a desire to fill the little peaks and valleys, and maybe it's because I've been here for five years, Like I don't know, just just wait. Saigon do sweep two weeks passed. Some are what for another thing, they tell you like,

Yes, your fears, essentially. So if you are a trump supporter fearing that bind, will win or binding supporter of fearing that trouble. When you should just imagine what I will be like in either of those. You know it or binding scenario. It's maybe only twelve percent, but I get comfortable that twelve percent. What does that mean to you like, if you're afraid of, using your Harry's just shake your head and then live with the reality of what it's like to not have heritage face. Your fears, man, but I think to imagine the conversations that are happening behind those reader letters or tweet, sir or peoples. You know anxiousness about this. I think It is that is like if you're trumps supporter year, imagining what would be like if Biden or were elected and if you're buying supporting imagine what a psycho trumpets elected again. and there is a certain amount of your coming to the end of it. This is the terminus. How is it going to end for you and what is the other side? Gonna be like and people are confronting that emotional chasm and I'm sorry to put it at that, but, like we all have family and friends that we talk about this stuff with and there is a great deal of pure

human life anxiety. What yeah, after this dragons right like what's on the other side, and I think that that's a very real thing for everyone in America right now, I get a lot of emails being like. I read the story. The New York Times about in Slovenia, voting registration Republicans up, so people are low. For what are we missing in the polls ran and we're trying to do all that, of course, like we written about yet Skelly in an irregular, our colleagues, a written about shy from voters. They wrote about how the pollsters for adjusting for education was. They didn't do as much in twenty six c, so I think part the issue is were addressing a lot of the problems, maybe up twenty. Sixteen, the issue is there: maybe new issues that come up like I don't know the FBI's investigating Zyobite negative needs of the day where's. That kind of thing was sixteen. I don't think that's happening, maybe there's a different issue. Big Schmidt! the poles narrow in the last two weeks. Maybe there's a different kind. Pulling here with Latinos.

in several states or with black, but as it is, I think part of it is like there is a potential for Holing error based on factors will not turn we see that we don't expect, but again Whole point of an unexpected pulling error is that it is unexpected, citing. Is there really challenging time now mean that point Perry as obvious as it might be? it is worth repeating the whole notion of like sometimes I'll be like on some rate. Sure whenever people liked, so what surprised You expect it's like lots of them, even oxymoron right and the whole reason why calling here isn't very consistent from year to year. Sometimes it favours democratic republicans let's go couple years in a row where favours one party than inflicts, or whatever else is because pollsters knew their poles were bias in a certain direction? Then they would try to correct for that my under correct or over correct, but like they're not usually get it publish them They believed to be wrong, and so we're very into the notion that there's more error and poles and some people assume, I think, the political mistake,

people make is assuming that the air will necessarily favour trump. It's easy to imagine Few things happen, we're like ok, Pulsar being cautious and hurting a little bit. They don't want like show these guardians. When Biden leads rights, they choose the version. Other likely voter model in this continent has an up only eight to not well over something, and you have you online and rubber pull, some of which probably are overly waited toward a certain presumption about the electorate that couldn't account for higher democratic. now and then maybe trumps. Voters are depressed on election day, there's a pandemic spreading and they don't turn out as much- and I know it's not hard to imagine a set of nerves were Biden winds by like twelve or thirteen points just a harder much ass. They were trump groceries quite a bit closer but like it's by directional, so not to do what you just said that people ask you to do in radio shows, but in addition to what you just laid out like reasons to expect that there can just as likely be appalling error that feed

Where's Biden, as our is appalling era that favours tromp, are there other things that you are all are watching in terms of nuts Oh you know what surprises our do. You expect, but things that your curious about, like when you look at the data when you look at pulls when you look at trends nationally or how certain demographics, our voting or have swung since two thousand sixteen other certain things that your curious about One thing I'm curious about his name was seen as a whole, but earlier, but the sort of I guess Harding is determined. So there was a poem Georgia method cleanup. He acted showed by me. Clearly, the cynic innocent, demographic doing pretty well, when I see a pull like that the question I have mostly as like. I think a lot of pollsters have some incentives to not have put all the same weird. I my senses is really most areas does not seem, have poles and make them seem to probe. Democrat So that's Canada. One thing is like with the Georgian Texas:

politically. I I'm almost sort of like curious. Do we have any sense of Jordan accepts it to be, like because we have all- I know the posters and very weary of being. If you pull this, shows Texas by six and drop wins: excess it'll be worse than if you had the other reverse that I think in a certain way. That's what I'm looking for The second thing is like obviously like I don't know exactly how the vote counts processes, are going to work in some of these states. I don't know exactly, if The poles are having to live like a certain absentee ballots, get the rules get the big brother for some reason. We have all these lawsuits happening about accounting process, so dead as Canada being in governance from trouble following is basically We swing state has a different process for how absentee balance are counted. Winder counted if there are still litigation litigation is going with judges you know in charge of it in turn. Federal or state court like death. Stuff is really hard to follow

and if we end up being a really close election that I think in some ways the polls become sort of less important because it would come up one to two points in a lot of these days, then that's tuff, Diana Forty five. It doesn't Much of this kind of why I find this often I get people email me. Question saying will this judge did acts in North Carolina? How does it affect? The poles and men were in a zone where I really can't answer the question of all. I would agree with that. I think I kind of service before where there are the two parts that we're sort of dealing with in our brain and I'm perfectly calm your ball with the model part like what is the model say, I'm perfectly fine, with the seeming that Poland is doing pretty well, but the other part that Perry is talking about, and here's a little play We have an ongoing live blog at five. Thirty, eight, that's basically kind of keeping track of all this election administration stuff we launched at last week it'll be running through action day and beyond, as as all the stuff unfolds, but there is a true

Go back in and listen to your slow burn for the two thousand election go back and read up on what happened there hanging Chad's, that's the kind of stuff that I Do you have my homework in the next couple of weeks of the campaign is to just do a lot. Of reading about the judicial stuff that happening actually there's a lot of like we're all but have to become legal voting experts in the like ten days after the election, which is a bit of a daunting prospect of it. honest yeah, and I should mention that outward during these Daily Pike podcast on Wednesday of this week, we're gonna have Nathaniel Ray and Amelia Thomson Devout on to explain the state of all of that litigation in the different rules in the different states and do an overview of the state of voting as we get down to the wire, so something to look forward to the let's move on and talk about our second segment today, but first too

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crowds, take full control of Washington? This fall winning the Presidency House and Senate. It is certainly not a foregone conclusion, but today I am going to talk about what that might look like. Were it to happen. Democrats have not had full control of government since the first two years of the Obama administration so think back to two thousand and ten and the party has changed significantly since then, perhaps most noticeably is the vocal and growing progressive wing of the party. So where does the party agree and disagree and who would win those arguments? Were they to happen in a democratically controlled government? So, let's start out with a very broad question, and then we can get into some of these dividing lines. Word Democrats to run the tables control the whole thing. What are their biggest priorities likely to be? Will I think, practically eel trying to see them do something with it? Another big stimulus bill referred

with relief and potentially you could see some democratic policy ideas are, like you know, fixations at the left get in there, so subsidies fur green businesses in a green new deal type stuff. So I think that an immediate legislative priority, potentially depending on the environment or the in March victory, there will be some appetite for things to change structures, so maybe making DC estate deasey statehood could be on the table. You seen some new groups forming pushing for judicial reform, so expanding the number of justice is on the Supreme Court and then you ve got people talking about filibuster reform. So those are kind of the structural changes that I think are under consideration and I think there's the immediate pandemic relief. I feel it been a lower level news story, but the fighting between

congressional Republicans and Democrats over some of this covert relief stuff will continue to be and issues that were divided Congress. So if democrats take the trifecta, I think you can see them wanting to push through something much more ambitious, and that is an interesting gateway drug to talking about big social programmes. The how other people thinking about what the democratic priorities would be. If they can, Government, I think Clare, gave a good summary. I might try to put these things into three buckets right. Why? which is what we call the repair and restore bucket, which would consist of a strained it corrector undue for things that happened under Trump Kobe relief, some ways to strengthen Obama care, including maybe any public option and usually when parties gettin power to be something on taxes, so partly repealing entirely repealing the Trump tax bill, those organ the repair category and those are, I think, of it categories of things that are most likely to happen.

also the structural category which statehood for put Rico NBC Supreme Court, reform. Slash packing expansion when a call it? What you doing, Their filibuster, that's kind of the two and in category three is what I would call very ambitious. the long run democratic priority, so climate is a big one, big social, programmes that will be more explicitly on the left guns. You know them. A kind of seed is the repair stuff. You can progress, some of that with even fifty and fifty one democratic centres, the structure stuff, I didn't mean it the two were something right in the very ambitious stuff. I think you probably like a true lance. I would like fifty four fifty five that's kind of their categories. I use yeah. I think it has to do with how you're, looking at our Senate forecasts and at how it all shakes out see twice. If you see in the Democrats when so when we think about the those three different categories or whatever the democratic priorities, may be one of the current dividing lines that would

Take that number of senators actually matter kinds of people are not on board with all three of those buckets and only on board, with some of them, their scientific, unlike the first building, some kind of mom stimulus bill. That includes covered money some like renew jobs new deal is time to stop and not a full fledged, that's so on they can a bill on the economy as a covert bill with some range I assume the majority, the vast majority of demographic Congress before that I didn't think there'll be some kind. like voting with data. Each are one last you, those kind of aid. voting. Make voting easier bill. I didn't think that'll have most Democrats forward as well. I think there'll be some racial policy like police reporting bill. I do not think that I have most immigrants forward as well. So when you get to be controversial stub, which I think will be if you want to add justices you gonna, get rid of the filibuster.

while I go, left right, divided this. Why, between, let's say in the Senate, particularly, I think the opponents would be Joe Mansion, Kristen Cinema, but also like a dying and finds that they will be more centrist, minded people and adding I am pleased that on abortion policy is the left of geomantic. Might yes, Sheldon White House does? My guess will be on the more liberal, to that end in the house. I assume you have the same normal devise. I assume the blue dogs and members who were elected in twenty eighteen will be more weary of big structural reforms than the rest of the Caucasus with dignity, EO could we see winning in those kinds of standoffs. Potentially you having give Joe Mansion don't go for the bill, the blocking a pass! in some ways they are the Congress. You're gonna have majority of fifty four people did the most probably fifty two. Inevitably it Joe mentioning

cinema say I don't want this, and this will hurt my political prospects for winning re election debts can of where it is like another. guess indication of where we might be headed, though Darwinism Chris Coon's, is the senator from Delaware close to Joe Biden in Delaware? Is a pretty blue, stable Kennedy. Moderate institution was not ready for big changes. He was asked about this idea of adding judges in his room corps. And he was sort of non committal and wouldn't say nowhere. Yes, and I'm curious if the mad, this kind of moving under our need. Our feet, where have you asked me a month ago, is Chris could be against corporate Yoda said, of course, Chris killed Civilians court backing acting I in fine style one's own politics, maybe changing after she heard.

Z, Graham and the whole democratic parties attacking her like. If you ask me a month ago, I say the institutional, as the centre will always win, but the centre can move left itself and this kind of what I think is the core question. I think superior right, unlike the carcass math. But the thing I think is pretty interesting is how progressive the like Dc Think tanker e campaign, staffer apparatus Nexus has gotten, I think, a good example of this is Brian Fallon, Epicycle, Big Clinton guy, now head of this group that wants to expand the number of seats on the court that once a sort of like a reform. The judiciary, which I feel it is a pretty good indicator of where the establishment of a party is headed. You can certainly work for like an establishment candidate, like Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden, and your personal politics are much further left.

but I do feel it gets a good indication of the direction that the party is going as it goes forward over the decades with this just will become. More and more in the ether. I wrote a piece in like December of twenty eighteen about all this kind of me. She idea of court. Packing is kind of getting in the main stream, and now Joe Biden won't answer the questions about it at the end of the twenty twenty campaign. So I think in some ways that's an indication of how quickly to stuff can move and how much the Trump years have been an acceleration this and how much the idealism has sorted fallen away. I think there's a lot more people who were subscribing to a machiavellian

cable. We might only have power for two years, so we'd better, go balls to the walls and try to do stuff, and I think that's a bit more of a prevailing way of thinking in the political sphere in our democratic and Republicans I'd. So I think, with core packing in particular, it should become more salient since Ginsburg death and that in and of itself may have reconfigured how people are thinking about it beyond that change, the core packaging or chloroform expansion. What kinds of These are going to be up for discussion under a hypothetical trifecta like. Are they gonna be talking about the things that were brought up during the democratic? campaign like decriminalizing, the border or reparations or Medicare for all banning what rifles, what kinds of things are going to be up for debate, so none of those things is to typically none of those things by

You know that I think the debate over whether the Bernie Sanders agenda we passed is ended people in the barn. I think the question is more like the green deal will not pass the question How is Joe Biden is very clearly that gives the green new deal with. No one really knows what that is, so the question becomes leg final environmental policy, the Joe Biden signs how close to the green new deal is dead. Is seventy percent twenty percent and ninety percent? I think the numbers might be Getting higher, not lower like we're, not gonna, get medical care for August Joe Biden cities. I can do that thousands of times like is the pub. option. One were basically anyone can and role in it. We know everything worked by thirty If you already have employers or is it a public option, Apri Limited one? Those are the kind of questions I think like we are going to have a regions, no other heavy reparations. mission, probably not, I think they might discuss their dirty gonna take

the immigration rules and even the border. No, I think good ideas, Sanderson WAR and are deaf when I get out of his job. I promise not to do them, but I think in some way, just like a little game to like. to me in some ways is worked out. Well that Bernie Sanders says Joe Biden, is not going as far as levers I wanted to, I mean: is the campaign paying him to say that I mean if you Joe Biden, ideally worn and AOL see give a speech that the updated day of every month thing he's not left enough. He's not unite our. We don't fall into the trap of like. I think this can be a lotta. Pretend not position. Does one leg of your area I think, on every issue you put out a plan d, Joe Biden is supposed to reject, isn't gonna know what they're doing now. In other words, the left right fight, I think, is going to be a little bit of fake game. Where else these job is to have bills, bite and reject in some way that he's smart. That should be heard what it seems like it's not all of campaign strategy right like how is progressing.

Alexander Cassio, Cortez, worn Biden last about corporate hires in putting together his administration, but I dont think that they're doing because they want to make Biden, look more moderate for swing voters I think they're being earnest in that they want to have sway over how Biden conducts his administration and there like starting early again conducts his hypothetical administration may. I think they want someone who's. I think particular like a chief of staff for Biden, who is a friend to the progressive movement or at least friendlier and I think that if you're a progressive and you ve lived the past decade and want to take some lessons about how organization and staffing matters can effect,

what gets pushed through you're, certainly thinking about who your friends on the transition team are and who, from the Warren campaign, as on the transition team and who's gonna, be a friendly chief of staff for Biden. If Biden is, is a more small, see conservative sort of die, the person who's been an institutional US, as we ve talked about a lot. So I think those staffing things do matter to people and do have an effect on like what gets through and what get through the president. I wanna talk a little bit more about this, but first today's podcast is brought you by simply safe with simply safe home security. You protect your whole home around the clock. Its serious, lasting production and all it takes is a simple thirty minutes set up you'll even get a free Security, camera. When you protect your home today, you set simply save up yourself in a few minutes without any tools or wiring. no technician or sales person has to set foot in your home. Then simply they monitor your home around the clock with security professionals who are there in case of an emergency

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caucus, or is there no one white that and bind world and their kind of basically trying to penetrate from outside of Biden World, so Biden hit three chiefs of staff and even vice there was run claimed was more fair, but a left causes leaves and government afterward. There was Bruce Red who, what sort of a more serious demographic there, was a steep machete whose sort of a big name lobbyists the left right now is pushing for IRAN point in their view, is of the bite and people he's most Spain to be biased was David Light, a proxy fight about whose ME chief of staff in the bite and White House, These three people are all white men, but the left is decided for whatever reason, wrong. Clean is more favourable to their causes. Then Steve, Machete or Bruce Riva. These. They already have So what was going on right now is a lot of fight o fighting over various like treasury secretary, for example, the left was to make sure the person who is a treasure. Contrary is not too pro walls report

So I think by and world does not have a ton of Like Elizabeth Warren level. Ideological people billions people who are set up more centuries and maybe less interest in what I think he's going to happen in a lot of cases, is think about Camelot Harris, like first big big pick was commentators. Kamala Harris is not like Nestle is left, is warranted Sanders, but she's not sort of anti lift they're like she's, not weigh closure was in a certain way, she's, not in left, she's, also a person of color in a woman. So my guess is: if Europe, sure white guy, I'm guessing, is going to be a little bit hard to get the highest level. in the government maybe I'll, be proven wrong about this, because I think the progressives we'll try to fight the most centuries. People in my guess, you'll end up with some less centre. Fusion is people in some way jobs in Europe about centuries my guess is you'll, be a woman or a personal color. I think when used in question is how

much. Will these structural fights placate the left from stuff like the green new deal, which they probably wouldn't get under by an administration suffragette permitting a tweet now from Marcos, Miletus who's, the founder daily Coast who someone you describe as like: more old school, liberal, left, democrat like a new school kind of burning person, but someone who is also not like a centrist, obviously- and he says Devils- must pass democracy agenda court import first thing next year, eliminate filibuster expand courts, DC, put Rico, maybe Navajo nation statehood and uniform. Now right to vote laws. We cannot, let Republicans retain minority rule. So if you have people like who were on board with those goals which I think are actually little bit more plausible, maybe not another nation, but like Dc Import, Rico more voter protections to the extent that no government can do things about that. Maybe there. actually some synergy there, where, where its scary to the centres Democrats. Maybe this some who are concerned about electoral backlash but like to centre left Democrats

be scary. You, like Medicare for all might be at the same time, if, in the long run, if you ever gonna have Medicare for all under President air Sea and twenty thirty, two or whatever you probably need these structural reform is to have a shot at that you might need You centres, importer Rico into from DC, so in something It would actually be like a smart compromise more like the kind of left gives up some term priorities for some long term possibilities for things that problem working to pass in the short term anyway. One thing that makes me think of is both electoral backlash and in there you had some things like core expansion or packing, which dont have majority support, so how much of democratic agenda under a hypothetical bite in an trifecta, essentially would be driven by policies that have majority support. Like is this an administration that is

going to follow the polls in a way that the Trump Administration certainly has not or Is it going to put our media bulletins that try to change public opinion? How does how does not work in a hypothetical by demonstration? I think it's an interesting question. The terrible thing about modern american politics is that you don't actually know what the candidate is. Thinking other exposure in the apparatus surrounding them. We have absolutely no idea what Joe Biden current mindset is at stake. Point in time, the idea was put out that, like he's the great bridge president right to crib some David Remnant, Barack Obama rhetoric, he will be a bridge president. He will be a person and who will soothe the country and who will make a path and not rock the boat. You much that that potentially there will be. Younger, more dynamic, new generation democratic President who takes over in four years. I don't know if that's a things going

happen, but I am very curious about like how Biden is thinking about ways to get structural reforms through how he's thinking about, like certain Americans, swallowing that bitter pill, like, I think, a lot of people just off the bat. Don't like the idea of adding new states, don't like the idea of adding new justices to the Supreme Court, that is scary, thing, because it just is right. Changes Gary, I dont know what binds willingness is to kind of shove those things down people's throats and it's kind of like six de forty, seventy thirty that he is on board to a certain extent because he does seem. see himself as this he's gone so far as trumpeted Ireland can fix this, but you know he's a guy who's run for president, what three times so easy only thinks of himself as like a person for the time.

I mean- and I am very very curious to know what Joe Biden mindset is about all this. It's a non answer to your question Galen, but I can't see- and his it was a good answer. I didn't even realize it was. A non answer was so like in some ways this kind of whether vain, which I those I dont mean and like the derogatory, John Kerry Kind of way right by his talent, I think, are one of the challenges like sensing. What the different forces pulling on him in the Democratic Party are to some extent the justice. Should we be democratic. forcing like a larger electoral incentives right and is like fairly good at reading those and is maybe not terribly logical himself which to me would read as the margin of democratic victory would matter, Alot Biden wins by fourteen point. Someone's Texas and in Georgia and Kansas within a point or something I think it's very different. If the race Titans and buttons weeks by my senses, the covert stimulus.

They'll start up with will a lot of things that are popular it'll, probably race Taxes on the web, it'll probably creates green jobs. It'll probably encourage mass wearing it'll have funding for Kobe testing. That kind of stuff seemed a sort of assuming very popular like the age one building will make it easier to early bowed, make it easy to do sandy registration that suffer we very populous. I think they have things. They'll, post it'll be very popular then like. I think, they'll never really moved Medicare for all the green new deal that stuff we still have no is unpopular. So the cynical question to me: is this government reform set of issues like My students is DC statehood, and adding judges getting really filibuster. Those are kind of like wonky issues where, I sense is the average voter does not have particularly strong stance. so. My sincerest like Joe Biden, Barack Obama, Nancy Policy become aphrodisiac,

getting rid of the filibuster and adding it is those who become fifty deeply issues. My This is most democratic before them most of us have it gives them give their issues that will help the Democratic Party in heart, the Republican Party. So that's my core question When an issue with super divided and super partisan and super divisive those are the issues right, don't know we're. I don't know where binds gonna go because in the bite and can pay these tended to campaign on popular things. And not on unpopular things, but on these partisan were issues is gonna, be fifty fifty is my suspicion and- becomes a question of Joe Biden. to be a more unpopular, but Julie, more effective president and it gives a question is seems that was a one term president or to turn resident is irrelevant west. in two. I think those views is right, don't know where he goes like being deasey stay that way, hold differently once both.

parties are really engaged in like Brok Obama has a book to coming in it. I think if you examine election I'll, be very curious he says on there in my sins of the he's for adding judges resume court, they think that'll become democratic regime pretty quickly out with almost all man- oh this book tour elegantly, so interest He's a people democrats! Well you care about easily to the very last day right.

Set it up in a way where he kind of has the first word post any potential democratic victory or defeat or defeat is so. I did a little mass in terms of what the probability is of Democrats, winning different levels of a majority in the Senate, and when I do this mass, which was at the end of last week for Democrats to win a fifty two plus Senate see majority, they have a forty seven percent chance, fifty three plus it of thirty four percent chance and fifty four plus it's a twenty three percent chance. So about a one in four chance. The Democrats are winning fifty four plus seat in the Senate, which is not likely, of course, to come back to where we started. How big of a difference does this all make up

all the things that we ve talked about. What kinds of things can they pass with a slim majority, verses of fifty four plus seat majority? I think two things that are really hard are any kind of real environmental reform in part, because you have a particular little rural bias in the Senate. So Democrats, it might an object to other types of things- might object to big climate change initiatives by, for example, Greenfield Winds in Iowa, maybe as someone who is more reluctant on on climate bills, for instance, but I'm here I think the Supreme Court expansion is one of the heavier lifts. If I had to bet on DC such quarter because statehood, verse Supreme Court expansion and only one or two things happens, I would think that say who would happen first. It also depends on how the court behaves. There's a post election ruling on the SBA. The court might figure. Ok, we don't want a kind of

give democratic and incentive worship public sentiment in favour of court reform. I think Parrys point is important, which is that kind of all these issues usually wind at polling about the same way. Anyway, you know, except maybe a big stimulus bill which probably fairly popular everything else here, usually, wives are being like forty. Fifty against the Incumbent Party poor little but change resistant. So that's a calculation, then why not do the things that you get the biggest bang for your buck. You tell if you're gonna popular anyway, then, why not add justices Frame court, not me without you can say, is like a tit for tat. The Democrats begin and therefore you going to create Republicans to justices when they get the perfect. I mean probably yeah. You would think.

maybe Democrats think to basically nullify judicial review in the trifecta, because they can always appoint more justices. Maybe they think that's actually better in the long run I dont know so. I just looked at the Democrats up for reelection, the Senate and twenty twenty two. So in swing states I would say Michael been it of Colorado. Catherine court is Master of Nevada and Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire, probably the only three people who cannot qualify. Being in a swing state of relations between twenty two. So those three people are pretty partisan democrats at heart and imagining. If there's some Supreme Court expansion vote, they would Is it possible that no, I guess so makes me a little less curious. Fifty two versus fifty four makes a big difference. you know, mansion and cinema are probably the most conservative Democrats, but they were in eighteen learn up to twenty twenty four

Peggy vote will be very unpopular in West Virginia, I'm sure than men does have four years ago to cover it up. If they go there, and he may never run again as a Democrat and West Virginia to whose thus rush. So this more things House dog is ultimately house would have to pass all this stuff too. Maybe more relevant to think. Does the house have two hundred and thirty votes or to forty five those sort of twenty eighteen clan members they're nervous about anything about. we're leaving controversial to ultimately I wonder if the Abigail spam burgers and people like that, would vote for increasing the judges gonna think it maybe has a big of a house problem as assented problem is, if you have to Democrats in this house who all one in twenty eighteen and are very nervous about being breathing seems

rural there may be a big bury. It is a really aggressive policy changes as well the other twenty twenty two Senate Map, because Democrats lost all these close in a recent twenty. Sixteen, which is the echo predecessor year for that, is unusually friendly. The Democrats and that's right there, three centres from swing states are pretty liberal me Michael, but it is not as much but Colorado is not really a swing state. At this point, I think anyway, so I mean at that helps a bit, but there could also be like the category but we're just old in and or weird gripe, also he's a lot of old centre. Some can get sick, especially in a time of global right. Someone can retire unexpectedly and have to have a special action, and we have a special action when you're the presence party, usually the other party, wins those so they're they're all types of things it can happen or that they can have a special interest in a certain state against us, type of bill, so it helps to have a marginal to spare. I think, is there a scenario in which the Democrats dont have a beer,

a large majority in the house and there's a progressive carcass, that's big enough that can essentially cold bills, that are not seen as sufficiently progressive. Maybe I just taken the last two years to seriously. But I just don't think the AIR Sea faction has much actual like, I just think they will complain. Our bills that are going to vote for, like the Freedom Caucus head what a power, because the freedom clock is would like hold up bills, funding bills, spending bills, healthcare, Bill I just don't see that a YO carcass of people really being willing to start bills. I close you'll be able to say this bill will give twenty people helping, Sir, as your bill will give thirty, I think, squad is very small. Can of organizational early week like the twenty seven, when thousand and was gonna defined by Paul Ryan versus the freedom carcass. The freedom plug is also in line with Donald Trump in a certain way,

air sea and that group will be immense if you will be against disease by which you will be against Surely the members of the house we give them? I dont see them having much sway in. here. Maybe I'll be wrong with his life, like they had very little actual so in the last two years. Dandy. That's why the group is trying to focus more on primaries in places where they are pretty sure it can also grow yeah. Exactly so, If you're trying to be smart about it, you say: ok, we'll play nice nice with the carcass on the national level and make some protestations that sort of, like hold up are ideology but like let's do some work and when some more seats to get allies in the Congress and then what year did we say she was gonna run for President Twenty thirty something very too then made nice nice on the national level, but also built up a following, like if you're thinking about long term strategy, which M They probably are certain level like there. Is that to consider also

Think that there's a mindset among Democrats that, like in a couple of years following trump when they want to get a lot of stuff done, because he again, you fear the partisan mindset of the country that the rubber band will switch back around and hit you two years from now that you might have limited time to act and to enact a progressive issue agenda. So you wanna strike, while there is hot yeah and frankly with the fact that all the projections have covered being really bad between now in MID January, if not longer, people are saying like losing emulated worse, which the pandemic. The mood for, like bold structural, massive change, I think, is gonna, be fairly high. Potentially Russia propaganda CMU. If we keep forgetting about the fact that, like if by wind, Trump might not concede in might be a very tumultuous turnover process, and so that notion could I think, both through support for me to tell you play it right. I mean it may be. A Biden goes wait for the other extreme is like I just have to heal the country and be a caretaker, but I don't know

twenty away was kind was kind of similar Obama that, by a by a wide margin, amid kind of a national crisis. This is a more profound national crisis yeah, it shows what times around when you can call the two thousand financial crisis kind of a national crisis, because it don't, we felt like one at the time carbon alone, and the nations issues on re unlike other things in which you know, America's image has been affected by the current presidency abroad and stuff, like that, I mean, I think, maybe by you're, saying is not high, would ordinarily have started to govern, but, like I, just compel by the moment, to like repair the damage has been done for over many years. Foreigners are well but leave it there, and of course we will have a lot to discuss if this does end up being the case, and we're covering such a situation. Interesting discussion, none, the less so thinking I think, a gale, tragically pigskin and expiry and skill

name is Galen. Droop tony chow is in the virtual control room Clare. Better, Gary Curtis is on audio editing. You get in here. I e mailing us at podcast that five thirty dot com you can also, of course, tweeted elsewhere. Then questions for comment, if you're, a friend of the show, leave us a rating or review in the Apple podcast store tell someone about Us- also remember to subscribe on you to thank for listening and will her