hello, and welcome to this emergency edition of the five hundred and thirty eight politics podcast, I'm gay landruk and President Trump's former lawyer, Michael Cohen, has pleaded guilty to lying to Congress about a Trump Tower deal in Moscow and he's agreed to cooperate with special counsel, Robert Muller's investigation. So to clarify a little bit for anybody who's now seeing a second molar themes, podcast in the feed today this morning before this news broke, when we did not know that this was going to happen today, we put out an episode of what we were calling Mahler talk Updating folks on new developments that took place during the first half of the week, well now we're in the second half of the week and there's more news, so we're back for an emergency podcast is cast. This is uh

past, but it's also like an emergency Mahler cast, and here with me to talk about Michael Cohen's guilty play our editor in Chief Nate Silver how's. It going it's going pretty well good gosh want to be very low. Key, not excited about Michael Cohen, just uh play deals the other day. Another plea deal a move it on? We have senior politics, writer, Clare, Malone, how's it going it's going well, alright and of course, we also have five hundred and thirty eight contributor, Amelia Tom. Devour him in a long time no see I now second pod in twenty four hours. This is great. This is the content life. We live. Yes, the hash tag content. We closed this morning's podcast by asking whether the first half of the week was just be smoky or there is actual fire. We came to the conclusion that it had been a smoky week so far. However, there was no fire.

You can use whatever rating system you want here, but Amelia can you update us to wear this week? Is now that Michael Cohen has said that he lied to Congress about This Moscow deal. What happened this morning is that the president's former personal lawyer, Michael Callen, showed up in a Manhattan courtroom and he pleaded guilty to making false statements to Congress, and this is actually his second surprise appearance in a Manhattan court. Room for a guilty plea in a couple months you may remember, is that he pleaded go

t to a variety of federal crimes, including campaign finance violations back in August, but those charges were from a different set of prosecutors. This charge is from Miller, so it's a big deal and, according to the formal charging document, Cohen lied to Congress about real estate deal in Russia that were calling the Trump Tower Maskout Project. Everyone else calls it too. I don't know why it made it sound like we came up with that, but That's that's the basic story so how to be very scientific here? How big of a deal is this science Klay. It could be a very big deal, but I want to emphasize

You know there's still a lot. We don't now. Obviously anything that links or concrete Lee links, people who are very close to Trump with Russia during the twenty sixteen campaign is potentially a very big deal. This does not, of course, indicate that co and or others were coordinating with Russia at to influence the outcome of the twenty sixteen election. But because this is the first sort of direct link we've seen, it could mean that there are some other shoes to drop from Mahler and that could also be a very big deal. Okay, well we're during an emergency podcast. So I assume that people think this is a meaningful development claires in that little circular, though yeah now doesn't have peg. The question is that the correct use of the question Why are we here? So I have some I mean I do have some I'm a curiosity seeker and what all this means an Amelia

you know a lot more than probably a lot of us here. So what seems to be the implication to here is more that Trump had perhaps undisclosed, business dealings with Russia, perhaps that's a conflict of interest with like foreign powers fluence, but it doesn't necessarily mean that the Russia these were colluding to help him win the election right. That's kind of what people are dancing around is that he had these business interests in Russia. Perhaps he was hearing from. Dignitaries or people of influence in Russia. They shouldn't have been, but it and necessarily follow that if he has these benches business interest that they would be helping him, including helping win the presidential election right. I think that's right claran, I mean what

more interesting to me and and galen- and I talked about this a bit on that other podcasts- that just drop this morning, but Moller has sort of been issuing these indictments and and there's an out today. It's charging document that are sort of shedding light on a bunch of different things, and so I mean I think this is also just significant in that it confirms something. You know that this actually been reported by a couple of news outlets that Trump and the Trump businesses have actually been working on. This Trump Tower Moscow deal longer than they said they had. So to sort of that, the time line is that Michael CO and had said you know no, we, we kind of wrapped all of this out before the Iowa caucuses January around the Iowa caucuses. So you know this didn't really spill over into the time when Trump is the presumptive republican nominee and actually it it went on several months into the year to to June, when everyone knew that you know, Trump was going to be the nominee.

And so I mean yes, There'S- no evidence at this point- that this means that the Russians were helping Trump or the Trump campaign, or people in Trump's orbit a in coordinating to influence the election, but this particular deal has sort of been scrutinized as a possible point of connection between Trump and Trump world and high level. Russian officials and this charging documents certainly reinforces the potential importance of this deal as as a place where people who are close to Trump connecting with the Russians. So that's why I think it's significant trump already laid out his defense to reporters this morning. He talked to reporters on his way to the G20 summit in Buenos Iris and he said that code and is lying to get a lighter sentence and that on top

that even if Cohen weren't lying that this would all be fine, he continued his business as he was doing. If he had lost, he would have just gone back to being a businessman. So not unreasonable for him to just continue being a businessman he's a businessman with Russia, so first of all is Trump correct, that it would be totally fine for him to continue doing business, Russia as presumptive nominee for president of the United States, I can't think of a kind of legal violation. It's a good question, though, certainly politically it has more wait. I mean again, I see this more as sort of a building block, then something that is going to hurt the president directly. I mean one of the things that's very significant about this. Is

that Colin is cooperating this, that his his plea agreement says that he's cooperating with Mahler and there's been reporting in. This also seems to just be evident from the fact that he got this plea deal that he's providing information, that's been useful to Mahler, and so what that is, we don't know, but that's the big question mark is what is co and potentially telling Mahler. That is, maybe I related to what's in this charging document right now, even quite over here. What do you make of all of us? Have I been quiet, or it was an s, questions with an honest to contribute. I I I gave you an opening to say how big of a deal Typically, you thought this was I in feelings. Over here, okay been ignored, for far too long is spell it. You would have a good answer after all, that buildup now

it goes to motive. It goes to the fact that here is why Trump would have dealings with Russia potentially twin implication, the other one, like to the extent it's a matter of someone's word against the president's word. Well, I don't can be convincing to people looking at impeachment or other sanctions against Trump, but come. We can also help only to uncover evidence of all of this and it's not just going to be a. He said. He said kind of thing, and so the fact that, unlike metaphor, come it seems to be inclined to cooperate and has said something about. Isn't that are not very kind already in, like can like leave. A lot of bread comes for Miller to chase yeah. How doesn't seem to be angling for a pardon to me. No as with I mean it is interesting. I now know if you, if you folks, talked about this morning but like, assume that is Manafort's strategy is sims. That he'll get a pardon. I know right, it was either that or he was afraid of possibly being assassinated.

Or that he's just stupid. I mean that's another one that he just thought he could outsmart Mahler and it turned out. He couldn't sorry we're going Yes, let me just read it: an injury burn sting tweet that just came across my transom. She is, if you guys, don't know or listen to the podcast one of the hosts of Trump Ink from Debbie, and I see- and it's very good, it's about Trump's business dealings and she says what's a good about today's, please it involves Trump Russia in business. In the campaign Cohen, one spoke to Kremlin official about a Trump Moscow. Deal too spoke of it more than three times to try and members of his family, three kept a quote: senior campaign official end quote in the loop for covered it up, so I think that's a pretty good synopsis of what the inconsistencies were and where people are kind. Pointing to this sort of smushing together of Trump's business. Trump's campaign and I do think that that seems to be. You know when we talk about Was it legal for Trump to keep running his business while he was campaigning, I mean yeah. I would say yes, I'm not like I'm not a campaign finance lawyer, but I think it goes

The idea that he never released his taxes. He broke a lot of the rules about Transpar or the the uh open rules that about transparency that presidential candidates have you know we don't only thing about his current financial situation or dealing, so it could get to the idea of water to President Trump's in tangling business interests any with a foreign power and going to Andrias point about covering it up. If you believe, Michael Cohen, that means that Trump knew that Michael Cohen lied to Congress about the business dealings say anything yeah, oh yeah, common, common perjured himself. It means it now in Persian himself, Trump knew it and didn't correct the record, even though he was intimately acquainted with his own business deal

right and the the other potentially significant thing here is that Trump just submitted his written responses to questions from Mahler at last week, and it there've been reports that, in those questions, were queries about that Trump Tower Moscow Deal, and so now there's a question of you know what happens if what Trump said in his written responses contradicts Michael Cow, and I mean he, you know presumably sort of couch this in language. That would give him some plausible deniability. If there is a discrepancy. Between other testimony, that Miller has then these written responses. But I mean you know it seems pretty clear why mother wanted to wait to drop this until after he had the written responses from the president in hand yeah. So his mother tried to trap Trump or is it I mean trying to track them. Yet I think, is just trying to get the responses from Trump the whole take home test format of Trump

Questionnaire is always been interesting to me right because in previous presidencies, right. Like Clinton was dip open book is googling no, but seriously he's he's googling stuff, I mean well also. Obviously his lawyers played a very big role in typing out the answer coming to some conclusion about, and sometimes a type doesn't use, but yeah I mean I've always found that to be an interesting thing. I don't know if we can call it entrapment so much as perhaps Muller is good it strategically growing things out. I mean I myself as someone who is not my main job to follow this stuff. Like do sometimes- Okay! Well, what was the last? What was you know two indictments ago or what what you know what was to spur to Mahler NEWS ago? and I saw today- some people saying Well- maybe there's never going to be like this single document at the end of everything that ties everything up together. Maybe it's just going to be those drips and drabs things, I'm wondering what

what you guys think about that I mean mother. Does he has to write some kind of report under Doj regulations where he basically out like he has to at the bare minimum outline to his boss, who is now Matthew, Whitaker, why he chose to indict some people and not others. It is totally plausible and I think quite likely that we will never see that report and that there will not be you know. I think people are kind of used to thinking about. You know that the Starr report, which was you know, went into a I miss detail. Kinda like read like a you know like a juicy novel, we're we're very unlikely to see something like that. You know. I do think it's interesting in even in this charging document, which pretty short, Muller Ease, telling this sort of quite compelling story about. You know how co and lied about all of these events and the these are the events that happened, and this is how you know they. They tried to cover it up,

allegedly, and so you know I I do think it is interesting to think about every Mahler document, a sort of not chest. These are the legal charges, but you know these are. These are the things that he knows are going out into the public discourse into the public conversation when all of us, whenever we're talking about this investigation, you know, I feel like I have to copy out everything, but saying we don't we don't know, we don't know what's going on in this investigation, because so much of it is secret and we're really can only know. You know this is only gonna make sense looking backwards. So I think that is a good way to think about anything that we do get from Miller as increasingly started to think that the best job in what must be spokesperson for Robert Muller because they always no comment and they're constantly called upon. So it's like you got all that prestige, but you don't have to do. Any work every report. It was malicious, special until office declined to comment,

the one. I always a spokesperson to end the who is this spokesperson, all the Doj, please spokespeople, over who gets yeah like sitting in an empty room by phone attached to pick up phone? No comment, no comment, no comment, people just all eating lunch, saying no comment anyway. This is the pool. Spike out. So before we wrap up, let's get a little bit into the politics of all of this. It has been about two months that Mahler has been quiet. Has that neat helped Trump in any way that the russian investigation has taken a backseat. I mean he just lost forty seats. The midterms

I mean if you look at the approval rating and he's at forty two point: four percent. Although higher, we should say in in Rasmussen, reports of an alternate reality where restless reports live, I'm going to tend to his at forty two point, four percent, which is actually sort of high on relative to his range. Historically, you know head dipped down to forty percent back in early September. When you begin to have more news about Conan Mana for and so, and so I don't know you know, I tend to think that, like this type of news won't affect him directly, it's more building the case and and the background story for it. Like look we're in a different environment now, in the sense that number one Democrats control the house and two Rup, know anything know that Trump actually does not. On water that are present with a forty two percent approval rating is going to have trouble, for example, holding swing seats in the house and that matter, may be holding swing, states and so you're going to see behavior, potentially from from Republicans where they're not willing to give him The doubt as much with that said,

You also had a mid term in which things very polarized and places that voted for Trump by ten or more points, which is quite a few actually states supported Trump because again in the mid term- and so you know and so like, if they a bunch of I feel like I'm contradicting myself. You know if there were a bunch of like swing. State satyres, they'll, be interesting to watch? You know Cory Gardner now, so we're turning two thousand and twenty Cory Gardner Colorado is arguably the most vulnerable republican incumbent, Senator or Colorado has become not just purple, blueish bluish right now and he's pretty conservative. You know will, he began to change his vocabulary at all about Trump. Will Susan Colin in Maine will will Joni Ernst in in Iowa. Although I was fairly read at this point, that's a group to watch and with the idea being that, if that group of senators becomes more skeptical of trump that that could affect also pop

perception of Trump, I mean typically yeah. It's a little bit like you, never know kind of what the card is and with the horses, but typically when people with Publican Party who are who are party leader I thought. Leaders begin to turn away from going to turn away from the president, and that would give other pub permission to turn away and if Trump's approval- and it goes from whatever it is. Eighty seven percent, among Republicans to say seventy five percent- that's still good but like that set a point where he would be in like the mid 30s among. All voters, and then that becomes like very, very difficult. It is by the way in intimate connection to random comment made at random comment. It interesting somewhat sense how you have heard less about impeachment, then yeah. I would have thought like if you would ask me, I think about said on the podcast at some point like there we go right. I think I probably said: if Democrats win the house by a big margin in forty six is a big margin for sure they want to impeach Trump. You know it is interest, now we're like it feels all the sudden like two thousand and twenty is just around the

and you don't hear that as much from Democrats, and I think maybe part of the reason why, in the back of back head is like hey, we don't have to impeach him, because we can. We can beat him in twenty twenty. I don't know if they're like discussions about that explicitly but you know eight for my money anyway, you know that's. Elections are for her is to have referendums on presence of their conduct and whatever else, and so but there's been less impeachment talk than I thought, and so a must also stated in not just our public react. But what happens when you know again to me this is not like a five alarm bombshell. It's like a one or two alarm bombshell when the first kind of or five alarm bombshell drops or like the molar report drops. Are there are rumors and and do about it then do we begin to hear the impeachment word again, because Democrats didn't talk about it much during the campaign and haven't talked much about sense, but, like that's a very pertinent question the entire end game here is like

the remedy is either he gets voted out of office or he gets impeached and then heard very much about one of those. This is actually a topic that came up with Nancy Pelosi during her campaign to be elected speaker of the house in that New York Times Profile Claire, we talk, she says you know, I don't think pushing for a future right now is a good policy, and if it's appropriate to push for impeachment, that's probably going to mean that republicans are interested in impeachment teacher she's basically put yourself in a situation where she's not necessarily calling for impeachment. Unless there's something that House Republicans yeah upset that they were also call for impeachment, which I think was. It is a safe and probably good strategy for starting off a congressional term in which a lot of your democratic caucus has one in states that are traditionally republican. That might be not skeptical of the Mullard best

and, I would say, but skeptical of premature, plunging nation even further into partisanship which, like, let's be honest, that that is what the impeachment would do it right. That is the danger, and I think, let's take the the. I guess I don't know how to the best faith, assumption of why politicians are sort of trying to stave off impeachment mean some of it, I think, is like political viability, but I do think, there's a you know: people look back over their shoulders and say man, the Clinton impeachment was so divisive and we weren't as divided from a partisan point of view. As we are in twenty eighteen, think, impeachment in America in the next two years, would look really nasty, and so I think that that's at least something that people are considering I remember Clinton. Impeachment was in his second term. An mixes impeach was in his second term, and so, if you have a second term press. And then there's no more remedy. If there a lame duck right- and so you know so, it is like hypothetically, if, like

bombshell, news dropped in like June move twenty twenty would Democrats, let's impeach him now right here. Would probably I mean what would happen? I don't know, but you know well only time and future episodes of Mahler Talk will tell, but We will leave it there for now Nate. Thank you so much. Thank you, Galen Claire. Thank you thanks, Galen Animalia, thank you. It's been We got to spend a bunch of time together over the past twenty four hour. Great. Thank you, Robert Miller. And a reminder that if you are looking for an update on other Muller NEWS from the week, including Manafort and Jerome Corsi, who, if you don't know that name, you should listen to the podcast, so you can find out very colorful character anyway, that's on the next podcast in this feed I'm, Andrew Toney Chow is in the control room thanks a bunch for less and we will see you soon.