You're, very forty Galen. That's like the most offensive than you ever such I've got you Florida, but what does this mean? Need he's got Florida These kind of yellow not? Judging like people in the northeast are flirt, people really not judge, you know they're, not judging they may be more judging, but like they're not hello and welcome to this emergency edition of the five thirty politics podcast, I'm gave indirect Supreme Court Justice, Stephen Brian, plans to retire from the court at the end of the current term. He served on the court for twenty seven years holding. Nerds might appreciate this. Despite being what the longest serving justices on the court. He is the least well know according to you guys polling? Less than half of merit, and were able to express an opinion about so that's prior, but of course, this also

such as up for a conversation about his replacement president I didn't now has the opportunity to fill a vacancy on the court, which he said during a democratic primary debate in twenty twenty would be a black woman, its role. That quote the fact, is what we should be doing. We talked about the Supreme Court, I'm looking forward to making sure There is a black woman on the Supreme Court to make sure the White House, secretary. General Saki reconfirmed his intention to do just that today and, of course, this will all take place during a mid term election year, so he would to discuss is seeing a writer and legal reporter Amelia Thomson devout these days. You re all right a million years ago, and now the Supreme Court, keeping me in business for ever hum. Thank you need to be here. Also here with us is editor in chief innate Silver Heeny, everybody happy emergency Pike, s day,

then a man at right yeah, it's really an emergency. Let's be honest, I mean yeah, it's an emergency for the court. They're gonna have only justice is most predictable emergency evolved. I know I know I know play along with me may play along with me: ok around older than is politics, editor, Sarah Frost and then on a scale from one to emergency. How would you rate this part? Two asked oak hash, a sort of an emergency it meets right in the intervals on Re Amelia. I remember where I was when with bitter Ginsberg diet. Remember, even where are we gonna do to ethnic candies at eight retire, I'm not sure. Where was coupled hours ago aware when I heard about this news proprietors

I know also deal, and I don't know what you saw that whole about how many people knew who Briar was, but I saw Marquette pulled that put it at twenty. One percent of Americans said they had some kind of opinion about him. So it's a little bit of oblique. Please please for him to be gone out on you know in today's environment, it probably best to be not thought of it all than you know, vehemently loved and hated all at the same time. I have no idea, I guess people can take their impact. May I also have to say I will never ever forget where I was when Ruth Better Ginsburg died, because I was on a day on a first and my slats started blowing up and, like I haven't, looked at my phone for an hour cause. I was trying to be like a good person to be on a date with an oversight on my part. I gotta go home was that no second, a gallon foregoing,

a date on Russia shot back. That's why you ok! We have lots of talk about here, but the first question that I wanted to ask was so we ve been doing this podcast for six years. This is now going to be the fourth Supreme Court, Justice Ripley meant that we cover in those six years. There are only nine justices. Amelia is this out of whack for what we would expect in terms of Supreme Court Justice turnover it's a little faster than usual and there have definitely been periods where there have been a lot of turnover aiming Richard Nixon got nominee for Supreme Court Justices and he knew tat. He was even president. First, eight years, so there have been other periods where there has been a lot of church. and went back in the days of rumour justices were leaving all the time because the job kind of socked and they went off and get a better job. Greece and do something else,

above all it. It's only recently that being a Supreme court, justice was like a good job that paid well. The people wanted to do that, but it is a fair amount of turnover as they earlier. This is a less consequential these men in a lot of ways, it's not going to change the ideological balance of the cord Democrats, should be able to replace prior pretty straightforwardly. I think by you know it's still going to change the court in important ways that were obviously and talk about. So let's try whether buffers, and they tell me why you don't really think this is an emergency, it's not emergency because it's not a surprise, because soon buyer was an idiot. Then we kind of had to retire there, obvious reason being that democratically very easily lose control of the Senate in November what Ms Mcdonald, water wouldn't retail is probably pretty limited, and so without with.

you reliable, liberal justices, the progressive movement really there. That's from having someone who was younger than Briar on the court. Re co silent natives outlining there, but I think in addition he is announcing at what, in January Kennedy waited until June. So it's just like it falls the pattern of it being expected, and I think to in terms of who by then will dominate to fill briars role. That too is a little bit we expected, nominating a black woman to that position based on his campaign promise. So a lot of this has just been kind of like writing on the wall. That's been there for a while. It's been a little bit more openly here, though, because some the alot of people vampires can retire. Last year I mean the Democrats have to send a majority, but something could happen to make them lose them

Europeans are with even a little bit risky for him to wait this long. You know, I think it's pretty clear why he did last term was not a huge term. This term pretty much. Every major issue in american politics is at the Supreme Court right now, with the exception of affirmative action, which is gonna, be others a report. Next year so guns abortion covert, yeah, exactly just like you name it they're doing so. I think Briar one to be there for that If he hadn't announced was, I think, making some folks on laughed a little bit nervous about like. When is he gonna do this? Will there be enough time to replace him tells he is eighty two and they do want someone younger to take his place. While I can happen right, activists on the left were pushing for prior to retire even last year, as you mentioned at the time he kind of brushed aside those suggestions saying that Supreme Court justices are not meant to be. You know, partisan, hacks or just what

higher when it's convenient doubts on a quote from Briar himself, but that's me paraphrasing the sentiment that he conveyed, I mean was at all just to show you that silly Starfleet. Have you briars briars, been on this big campaign. Over the past years, though, he wrote a book where he said the Supreme Court. Is not ideological? It's really important or institutional credibility for people will see us about politics, would not politicians in robes, etc, etc, etc. I got may well be true it is important to learn institutional got ability to not be seen as ideological isn't working to their institutional credibility lake, whether they are perceived. That way, I think right now is a different question and whether Stephen Briar is going to change the minds of any Americans on that front by writing a book again. Another question have that to be different day by day

the Supreme Court justices tend to retire, while they can be replaced by someone who use ideologically Serpico. It's just you know. We saw this happen under Obama. He got a couple of retired, since early on Kennedy chose to retire under tramp in other have been sometimes I just can't always control when they leave the cord, obviously, and so, as they guess wrong about what the political winds are going to be and who will be able to replace them. But for the most part

its understandable. They want their legacy to continue, and that means they want to be replaced by someone who has similar views. I think the hangover from Ginsburg and that happening and Republicans getting to make the appointment they're probably so, looms large and Democrats, mines, briars, mine, etc. So I want to talk about the replacement process by before we get to that. We mention that Stephen Briars, not particular very well known, but we have five thirty eight track a whole bunch of data about where the Supreme Court justices fall on the ideological spectrum, even within the two camps of liberal and conservative, though some variation, so who is Briar and how might his absence changed the court rather than on the court for a long time he was a Clinton nominee. He came out of the current ninety. Ninety four, so he's he's been there for a while his established along track record and that track record is really that he is a centre left justice. We look at Martin Quinn, score

whose which are problematic in some ways, but also a full and others. We don't really have better data to measure Supreme Court ideology and you can see when you look at that. That he's just been sort of honour the centre part of the liberal coalition pretty consistently. Since he came onto them, work and he's kind of known as a pragmatist who likes to compromise when he can, and that meant that in some cases me and I'll keep came out with rulings, the liberals were happy with. In other cases, he came out with rulings that liberals were not happy with. There is a sort of famous set of cases in two thousand five that were. About ten commandments displays of he was the pivotal vote and he went with the conservatives in one case and with the liberals in another case in that's like briar. In a nutshell,

looking at an analysis by the Epstein and Andrew Martin, who are political scientists who studied the Supreme Court and they're looking just at the share of liberal votes that are cast by justices that Briar served with, and he has the lowest share of liberal boats of all the democratic appoint is so it is not as it is not liberal. He is quite liberal, but he's and definitely not out there railing against what the conservatives are doing. He really tried to find compromise opinions and I think you know seem to be getting kind of frustrated as the court got more conservative that that was harder her to do. Is it safe to

then that whoever replaces Briar is going to be more liberal, as we ve seen with the appointed Trump made. Yes, the court is moving at a more ivy article direction and given what we have already seen in terms of violence appointees in the federal judiciary, it's likely that who here points to the court now will also be in a less likely to compromise. We see, for instance, of the two remaining liberal justices on the court. So am I cake and occasions a little bit more moderate, her an briar actually very similar scores within the Martin Quinn Data but so do my zero dollars issuing descent cents right and left, and presumably whoever fight in a points. This role could fall into that. Camp, though it again they could fall more into the Kagan camp, but I think, as Amelia argues in her peace like that brand Does she airy style that we saw with Briar is kind of falling out of focus,

There is also just like the map of the Supreme Court right now and an approach, link, Briar and Kragans was more persuasive. At a time when John Robards, the chief justice, was the deciding vote, and there were four liberals because they just needed to peel off Robertson Roberts is known for his very conservative, but he has concerns about wanting to preserve the court's institutional reputation, not appeared to ideological, can a similar briar in that way, so he was persuadable on that front and like the idea of compromise was appealing to have in some cases. Now the liberals have to pick off to conservatives. You know which is not to say that it can happen, but it's much harder to do, especially because no we're still sort of figuring out what what trumps nominees are. Gonna do on the court, but in general

they just seem much less concerned with how the court appears and much more focused on doing what they think is the right thing, which, on some high profile issues, may turn out be pretty unpopular. So obviously you know, justice is are all people and they have different philosophies and how the rule on different issues varies person to person, but I think it will be interesting to see, even if who replaces Briar is not like super super liberal. I just don't know how much mileage there is to be gotten for illiberal justice out of pursuing that kind of compromise path. Right now I mean to me this question: is a little bit weird because number one you're, never gonna, have any a three liberals when the new justice picked be this way. I very much anything so in the show We're not sure it matters that much if your kind of centre left or more left left

In the short run. There are political consequences, though, and if by chooses someone who has a track record of like being very very outspoken about it. That's kind of person that Joe Mansion or just the cinema might begin to oppose, so I think they actually have some constraints. He was just a fifty fifty Senate down that's an important way and which I have some indication of who eyes on a short one. Biden shortened quite a bit for his campaign, promise Amelia. What do we know about whose, on that shortlist yeah so the Supreme Court justices tend to get onto the court in a particular way, which is to say they mostly serve as judges. Alina Kagan is an exception to that, but the past few Peck's Gore such Cavenaugh bear at have all come from the court of appeal suited sooner my or etc so the visitor.

We common path coming through the federal judiciary, and there are just not that many black women in the federal judiciary Biden has been making a big push to appoint more people of color, more women to the judiciary. So some of the people who are on a short list or actually people did he elevated to higher position or is in the process of nominating them to our position in the courts. But if he wasn't appeals court judge it was a black woman. He really doesn't have a ton of options, and I think one of the leading contenders in that space is contagious. Brown Jackson, who was a district court judge in D C and then was appointed to be judged on the Deasey Circuit, which is the most powerful appeals court and the country. I would say she is a big leading contender. Another one is We Kruger Krueger was California Supreme Court Justice, obviously that to state court. It's not a federal court be a little bit more unusual, but still a judge

and then there are some other names in the mix. A couple of district court judges, Michel Childs, who is currently a district court judgment, has been nominated to the DC circuit. and Leslie Abrams gardener. Who is a district court judge? You might hear the name Abrams and think she related to Stacy Abrams it's running for governor and Georgia. Yes, she is, she has her sister, so those are all stability is, if I had to guess, I would say I think it's probably gonna be Jackson just because she was like clearly put on this path. At the beginning of the belgian presidency, and she's got the background. You know she has impeccable. Couldn't so she went to the right schools. She also served as a public defender, which is something that we are seeing more and the profile of vitamins nominees to the courts.

It could be someone else, but those are some of the names that that I've seen floating in speaking about like how Jackson was appointed an all fifty Democrats backed her fourth DC circuit as to three Republican. So, if you know biting went forward with that nomination baby, he doesn't get all three Republicans this time around, but presumably a you know. Mansion and Cinema voted for once, but they really back, I am for this. Nomination is even contender on predicted the strategy, there are already irish teens. The scottish students now in this case give us the rundown me so Jackson me fifty eight percent child seventeen percent Krueger. sixteen percent camel iris at four percent. That's the snow. Crazy idea of a day, a four percent chance, Would you take over under four percent? It all started back one I got burned on any country bear it, because it was a lot of you know like really clear.

She was the leading contender, frontier, take rebate or Ginsberg Sea and then started getting in my head, and I was like what, if tram, wants to surprise Exo abominable what was there? I don't think he even he didn't even talk to anyone else. You know, I think that's right, ok, but if you are Harris Vice President Combat Harris, would you rather continue being vice president? or become a Supreme court justice, because to me simply work just as is the way that our job and vice president of the United States, will it do you think you're gonna be vice president forever, or are they so given her position, like vice president now could potentially unit would have to run, would have to win the nomination when the presidency too, like where she is right now with her potential or given our lifetime appointment. I mean I would rather beyond the Supreme Court, but I also would never run for

ass, he sunk especially fun to be illiberal on the Supreme Court right now, I'm in your losing on everything you care about it. So it's not even come in there and linked you're making law that you're excited about. For the most part you get you write hut takes all day you Jim views, peaches and it occurs dollars pots sure I can assure you that needs overs free, you'll get the next one fully we Glasgow will inherit Taft, which was better president, her Supreme Court of you, I think he must proverbial of emergency Ok, I guess Harris after listening, maybe maybe consider the the court should.

Back to reality. The three Republicans who confirmed Jackson were Linsey Gram, reason we're housekeeper and Susan Collins than all fifty Democrats in the Senate. So is it fair to assume that if that were the genome nominee this time it would be a relative smooth process. I mean never saying never, but guess it should be things to me. Filibuster carve out for both federal judicial, appointees and Supreme Court? Like you just need a simple majority Democrats have the numbers. If they were to go with Jackson, they should have their you. No future Supreme Court Justice, and I will say the Democrats we are fighting about a lot of things right now, but they are not fighting about judges we ve been looking

The data and I'm talking to some scholars who follow this and Democrats have basically just been entirely in lockstep on judicial nominees, even when they ve been sort of controversial webinar there had been somewhere republican, so have kicked up. More of a fuss and Democrats are just like holding together. So again, it is foolish to say that anything will definitely happen in this crazy world of ours, but I sort of feeling is that if they can't pull this off, that leg station I'll be there. They ve got the numbers to do this and it should be pretty straightforward if you're Publican and there's not much upside, really cause you're not going to prevent her from chosen. This is developed that used to prove that you are non partisan or by partisan,

when you have some other pretext, reposing somebody else later right like if, for example, one of the conservative justices worked it out again voluntarily retire, but if it were to unexpectedly die and bide made a second appointment. That's when you would find you coming it reasons to oppose somebody. So I wouldn't even shock me if you got more than fifty three votes for confirmation, because, like there's not really much political option some kind of signalling to your base that we can't letter you never brothers for corporate is like no. We talked about this now like if binding appoints a black woman to the Supreme Court. It'll be historic. I mean I've only been five women on a supreme court. Only one of them said admirers of women of color of The two black man so is not just voting against a democratic nominee, its voting against the first black woman to serve on the Supreme Court, which, like I'm sure you know a significant number of Republicans in the Senate, will do

But if you're gonna take a stand and his name was saying like the Democrats are gonna get it through any way. Maybe you don't do it on this one of your a more modern within its possible because just the court appointments have become so contentious and partisan within congressional briar was really one of like the last nominations that had a wide bright, partisan support in terms of getting to the Supreme Court. But again, I think, as emilius flagging, like this nomination provided Biden Nominates, a black woman would be historic and so right, where do Republicans, particularly in the Senate land, on that you know they did vote unanimously in favour of like June. Thirteenth is a holiday or they really gonna stand in the way of the first black woman

the Supreme Court of war. Sure I mean because there is a lot more at stake. Your rate, which is the Supreme Court, is dealing with a lot of high profile issues, a lot of hyper about issues that republican voters, care about, and so they're, just all gonna confirm a democratic appointed Supreme Court nominee to the court. Then there like endorsing those positions as well, which seems to me like it would not be. You are totally advantageous for plenty of Republicans and the Senate, and maybe this is where, because I'm talking about electoral politics and the mid terms, whether or not you support a Supreme Court justice are how this argument plays out. How does it affect electoral politics and the mid term? You know we can we ve covered a mid term confirmation. We ve covered a general election in a presidential election confirmation, all kinds of fraud processing scope of about six years. How does the shape

draw about eggs with so much else happening. I dont think it will unless something is bungled or or she actually wherever she went to being. If it now many actually like her Harry admires problems where the nominations he pulled for supper He's an oar Joe Mansion object for some reason, and you don't get the votes that gets very messy. If you have about your power can say things that come across as racist right, which is certainly a possibility with a black being nominated, then maybe that would rise up democratic votes by dont. Think people can it be talking about this very much in November. The more be talking about decisions that the Supreme Court makes like on abortion. Up to the point, would you say now that you're replacement level republican senator could vote to confirm the Supreme Court? Just us on one? fact their standing with our voters. I dont think the average you're lookin voter believes that just blanket you should

oppose a democratic president from being able to nominate a liberal judge. I think he probably need some other excuse for that right and I don't know, there's a lot of good excuses here, although of course, the voting process. How things went during tromp right, like Democrats did vote for his. nominees at all. Well, maybe they should. I don't know, I'm just gonna like say: there's no ideological shift in the court here. It would look bad to oppose the first black woman ever to be nominated to the court strategically again you have to kind of pick some issues like the reasonable person, I'm not say she's gonna get like. So the votes, but you might get fifty six or something I don't know look. I will be able to tell them theory. Amelia sovereignty are green, just given the way things have trend it in Peru. vs nominations. I don't know, I'm sceptical that a lot of Republicans sign on for whoever the nominee as on this year.

I would say it's like we're talking about whether with two or three Republicans sprayed on board and when I dont want to underestimate the possibility that this could be a kind of nasty confirmation process and in the fact that this is the first black woman. I think racist things could be sad. I think she could be attacked,

in a way that was not a black woman, would not be attacked. You know whether that matters Electoral Lee Leg Democrats, I think we're gonna- be trying to do this. Pretty fast, the way the Republicans did with Amy Tony Blair at so, if prior retires at the end of June, and then they start the process like this could be over by August, and then people may have forgotten about by November. You know, I think, it's possible that this becomes more controversial and contentious, just because you know, like women are attacked in ways that a white man or even a white woman coming up for this high profile position wouldn't be so I wouldn't discount that, and I think the vast majority of Republicans Wilma felt for her, whoever she is The other thing, though, that in theory the nomination process will happen at the close of this of come term, and I think, as knee was saying, I think some of the anger around the Supreme Court might be centred moron issues but will be

Can you see like how much does it then play either too may be democratic voters for like I'm, not happy without Democrats are doing or Biden is doing an office, but you know Given the court's ruling on row, I feel motivated and x Y see ways or maybe it's Republicans, who feel more energizing a sense of like look. We have a conservative majority on the court Democrats have now put you know, a new justice on I think it's too early to tell, but I'm interested in like does. This nomination, you know motivate either parties voters on ass. I could see it going both ways me Democrats, design, they're gonna, drive back the court while we're talking about currently. Things that won't happen Ironically, depending on what the court does in June were probably gonna be hearing more people at least say a nation pack, the call back yes, I'm all right well, along with whoever this anomaly is getting. Seventy confirmation votes that also

will not happen, but these other questions. How does its electoral politics and what the process looks like going forward? as with all things on his back guys, we will track it and we will find out together, but let's even therefore now so. Thank you, Amelia Sir and Meet thinks Galen Gale of Peaceful and my name is, gave him drink. Tony channel isn't a virtual control room Clare. Budgetary Curtis is on audio editing and Emily. Even ass, he is are in turn. You get in touch by e mailing us at podcast at five, thirty, eight dot com. You can also course treated us with any questions or comments. If you're a fan of the show us a rating or review in the apple pie, cast store, Bore, tells them one about us, thinks me listening and we will see you soon