Welcome to this five hundred and thirty eight emergency politics, Podcast House, Paul Ryan, is retiring. Addition, I'm Galen for Jody is out today and actually So is everyone else. So it's yeah it's a busy day. So this is just going to be a monologue about Paul, Ryan's twenty Year House career so sit back, relax. The year was one thousand nine hundred and ninety eight and twenty eight old Ryan had just been elected from Wisconsin's first district becoming the. Second youngest member of the house. I'm joking do tune out just yet. Actually, here with me to discuss the news today, our senior writer Perry, Bacon, Junior, joining from DC, hey Perry, hey thanks, Rodney and five hundred and thirty eight contributor, Ann Marquette political Science, Prof search Julia Azari, joining from Wisconsin, hey Julia, hello, how's that Wisconsin

to say I've mostly been alone in my car, an attic any meeting. But I expect that the mood in Wisconsin among the population that I spend a lot of time with college students is going to be he very inquisitive about what this means for Randy Bryce in the Wisconsin First District, she's kind of a favorite to in the democratic nominee there he's reasonably popular among college students, so that's a very representative perspective, but I think that there's a lot of interest right now in this state around back partisan dynamics of the last couple of years. So yeah should be pretty interesting week into the politics and Paul Ryan's district a little bit later, but to start off, why did Paul Ryan retire He said this morning in his speech that he accomplished much of what he wanted. He never wanted the job to begin with, and now he wants to focus on spending time with his family. So more to it than that

I think you know. I covered him a lot. You know in two thousand and nine when he was kind of one of the leading Republicans in terms of figuring out what their strategy for opposing Obama was, and I know at that point he actually did. Say and talk a lot about how I want to be the guy writing the bills not sort of big at the voting coalitions like he's not been trying to become speaker his whole, like the way, I would say both Baynor and Nancy Poulos. I think did want to be speaker for a long time. In contrast, so I think that part is true, but he did he all I want to know I mean Brian from time. I've known him that he's been in politics has been talking about big time: reforms to Medicare Medicaid and Social security along with Texas. He got one of those we're done and my sense is realized that with Donald Trump who's, not particularly conservative on issues like that, he was only together.

So I think I'm so I think on that level, Brian was sort of gave up on the policy and on the politics Ryan's much more of a kind of establishment, JEB Bush, Marco Rubio kind of person. I don't think he get into this kind of Donald Trump Washington that well so I'm not surprised like you know. He and Trump did were not closed, never really clicked. I think that's part of it to the other factor, of course there, publicans are, you know, there's a good chance of going to lose the house in the upcoming elections anyway, so Paul Ryan may have been leaving a job he was kind of going to be forced out of anyway Julia. What's your take on his relationship with President Trump and his relationship with the republican caucus my take on this is that many of the problems that led to Ryan Being Speaker in the first place are the same problems. Now when beta or step down is how speaker

October, two thousand and fifteen. I wrote a piece about how everyone wanted to be president, and no one wanted to be Speaker an. I think that that's still sort of a question is like the contemporary Republican Party is a pretty presidential party. You know it hasn't kind of executive focus, its foreign policy. They really critical element but that tends to be focused in the executive branch. Consumer Republicans have not really built themselves up. As a congressional party they're great at opposition, the greater being congressional Party went missing officer in all this. Let me emphasize Julia, she didn't use these words, but we've hinted around the Freys House. Freedom caucus like this sort of most powerful people in the house. I would argue, is this freedom caucus these school members who was very conservative but is not ever clear to me what he actually want, what they're actually for their against every spinning build their against everything?

They didn't like Baynor and try to push him out. They don't really like Ryan now. So I think Julie is capturing. The Are there in the Pacific day today for Paul Ryan, the speaker is EVA. Bunch of members who complain about everything you do, who you can't get behind kinda organized by anything, is the same thing Baynor face two, I mean having two speaker is resigned in three years. Is, I think, his Berkeley unusual? But if you Look at how this job goes you so you know hard to organize these guys for lunch. The Republican Party has also changed significantly since one thousand nine hundred and ninety eight. I think we can all agree as you talk about Perry, Paul Ryan. His focus has been reform of Medicare Medicaid Social Security tax policy. You know, loves free trade, a lot of aspects that are not strongly associated with President Trump does the bar Publican Party that Paul Ryan represents really exist

anymore, and what does his experience say about the direction of the party? If you remember back a little more than two years ago, it was clear that Trump was going to be the nominee. I think John Kasic in TED Cruz had dropped out and Trump went Capitol Hill or this big visit an it was part of it was that Paul Ryan still wouldn't endorse him measure who Paul Ryan thought he was going to endorse instead, but he wouldn't indoor trump, and I think it goes this notion that Paul Ryan wants to be part of this kind of you know. Basically, she wants to change fiscal policy, but he was behind and supporting the kind of twenty thirteen immigration idea when the Republican Party was for legalization of undocumented and so on. So on the social issues where Trump has been very strong on the Cleveland Immigration, Paul Ryan was never there an, I think you know in the the Republican Party in one thousand nine hundred and ninety eight Paul Ryan was apart of even two thousand and eight Paul Ryan.

It pretty well into even two thousand and sixteen, but now No, I don't think Paul Ryan does in the same way to JEB Bush or Jeff flake. The figures don't really fit in the party because it's become trump spa I mean is really has in that direction and in fact, if you look at the people who might become speaker next, the number two public and Kevin Mccarthy is probably than in Canada come Speaker next and I think his biggest ridiculous did Trump really likes him there Buddy buddy in their pals Trump was talking about. Having Mccarthy would be chief of staff, but it's not because of any kind of policy, I'm just more just because Trump plainly likes Mccarthy and Trump does not really like Paul Ryan and the repo in party right now is really about in some ways. Does Donald Trump, like you Policia side, I think if, if all all correct and the Trump ification of the Republican Party

I think I'm gonna be thinking a lot about, hopefully writing in the next couple of days. But I what I also say another another name that I feel you working here: that's Reagan, Paul Ryan. This is when we think about him. As someone whose I don't know, what the right word be be different, Trump on a on the immigration issue and more in a pro business cut government he's really. Picking up on a Reagan kind of tradition, so you know there's a split between Ryan and Trump that was born out through the election, but post election he more or less got along with Trump, at least for the cameras and was pass legislation that he wanted to. So why not stick around and further that agenda that he's been so enthusiastic about since he took office right like want wants to make a case for his version of the Republican Party, isn't leaving office the opposite of what you should be doing. I think so maybe Julie Julie disagrees. I I think it's pretty clear that if your, if your goal is to do

Social Security and Medicare changes are going to be. To be defined as cuts and probably are cuts in a certain way. I don't think Donald Trump is disciplined enough or or committed in Do that I mean it's not always. I don't think that in some ways ramming his campaign promises? You know that will disappear in some ways, but Trump ran against these kinds of cuts during the camp. He was the republican. He said. Been more money on those kind of programs. I just don't see. Trust coalition a little older, older people. I just don't see a world in which this sort of the really tough stuff Ryan wants to do was ever gonna get done with Trump, because they couldn't do Obamacare. They barely got tax reform over the line. So, and also is important, say I would argue that you know Trump is on popular now. I would argue the Paul Ryan policy Vision, if, if, if it was at the center of a campaign, is much more unpopular

the reason? I think one thing Trump did well in twenty. Sixteen was to not take up the most controversial, most small government parts, of the existing g, o p orthodoxy actually call Ryan ISM was never gonna, be policy, and now that he's come to realize that too, on the policy front, I think that's right at the national level, it's interesting to see how this sort of plays out we're. Some states are moving more in that direction on the state level, but the thing I think is is really important. Here is not just Trump's policy direction that Trump as Trump right. The the immediate context of this is is the co, an FBI raid right and whatever may be going on with with Trump today in the rumors this morning that that what I thought was going to get today about whether Trump was going to shake things up in the Justice Department as a way to force motor out. You know if, if I were in Ryan's position, it might make sense to get away from the politics of the house. Is all of this heats up, particularly

about being in the minority, and what that know what that might mean in terms of like staffing, uh, a sherry committee is going to vote on potentially on articles of impeachment. That would be a very live agenda item with the Democrats retake the house and what you're saying that for Paul Ryan's political future if he would want to be far away from that meeting that he envisions himself having a political future. I guess I mean that's a default assumption I haven't. I haven't had the time to think about this, because this is. I think this is the question, is you know, is he singing his going to have a political future. In some other context, a Senate run a governor run, got Walker, is not term limited here in Wisconsin. There's not like an obvious moment when would be Paul, Ryan's turn, but presumably someone else to be governor here at some point you know so that our Senate races have been quite competitive, so those are are all possibilities. He

one vice presidential ticket, maybe he's looking to do another. I have no idea- or maybe is Perry noted in his piece. There's lots lots of non legislative options on political options in DC. That would be attracted to him. It was Julia brought it up. I did think yes, Paul Ryan likes to do call see. I can imagine him being governor of a state or even a sin it situation. I just think that this situation, Julie, is right. Dynamic and is in now where Paul Ryan goes. The press conferences in every question is Trump tweeted X. What do you think Trump one me want to fire Rosenstein rosenstein? What do you think about that? I don't think that she did. Were Paul Ryan wants to be when I she looks kind of on Will I mean everybody would be but he's kind of on the trunk in steam right now? That's not a role. I think he wants to be in can. I add one more thing, which is: if I were a kind of nationally prominent legislative

one thing I would want to do, it would be that to hide out until I knew what this whole thing was. Like I said, there's the Reagan Republican Party is this kind of ongoing tension between establishment and movement, and that's taken a number of interesting twists and turns including trump, and I would kind of want to know like how will the power bases shake out and party and how will the relationship between the the parties voters in its elites shake out like? I would just kind of want to know what the next twister turn is in the story. We not be alive. We have a front row witness to it and then put your next move. Right, you could imagine now that Julie is going to think about this. You could imagine, I don't know what the who runs the Heritage Foundation now or other american enterprises. You could imagine. Paul Ryan becomes head of conservative, think tank for a while and then chose a figure out where the Party Is going and then more regular Republican as president he could become a day camp that person he run and run for the Senate. I think that you'll

is right? It's in. He needs to hide out for a while, as he figures out where party on? I don't think he wants to be in a place where the role the pool, is to roll back. You know immigration into depend truck. So that's what Ryan was looking at from a policy and governing perspective in in making his decision. But let's talk about, of course, the mid terms. First of all does his stepping down a fact what we or do you think about the two thousand eighteen mid terms. I view it is a is, is indication what Paul Ryan are? You know you Paul Ryan raise a lot of money for Republicans. I think this republican donors give you money to do whatever the leader. Okay party is I think Ryan Scission is going to hurt the par the midterms. That much, I think it is sick, is another signal along all, are the retirements, along with special elections. Another signal that republican, are very nervous about the midterms and they're. Gonna go going to go particularly well, and I said it's think it's very simple, as that was he part concerned about winning reelection really. What do

I don't really think so, but I because usually I don't- I don't think so. I mean the story around Wisconsin. First district I've been kind of looking at it this morning. It is been for the last as long as I can remember, since I've been living here is kind of been like. Oh it's going to be close and then like it's not that close, but his I'm. I don't have the numbers. Turn my head, but the presumptive nominee for the for the Democratic Party in the first district had this like viral video, he's retired ironworker Bernie Sanders was here a couple of months ago to rally with him he's got a lot of attention like I can kind of tell you on the ground and, like I said in the college student population, the people are doing a lot of the work. He's really captured imaginations that way and kind of capture people fences of where the party could be going and the Democratic party. And so you know that's that's interesting that hasn't that doesn't happen in that district. Whether that really means I mean a very white District Ryan's

presented, as you point out the beginning, going down for a long time. You know whether that really means anything. It's hard to say. I don't know what he was person I don't know I he was scared, but I would say that there was probably a non trivial chance that that seat was in play. Yeah looking at the rating. It was our five, so not in that like we're competitive bracket, but just at the cusp- and I know sure I work in Wisconsin covering state politics for a little bit. I think the interesting thing about that district is that that area of Wisconsin is not like the wealthy Milwaukee suburbs of Washington, and I was the Waukesha. It is more kind of working class. Obviously, there are wealthy areas, Paul Ryan lives in a more wealthy area of that district. Your trump actually did better in that district than Romney dead right. It's the kind of district that fits this more, perhaps more populist movement on both

sides of the aisle yeah. I didn't have that. I think that's right. It's an interesting area there and there's there's this documentary call as goes Janesville, that's about the closing of a a plant there and what happens to people there and it's. You know it kind of captures the political moment a couple years old, but it does give you the sense of what's going on in the sisters where there's not the kind of economic booming economic activity. Do you see on the coast it's a little bit removed from from Milwaukee, which is an economic center yeah? It's it's an interesting kind of way that I think of it. The current narrative battle that could come out of that could be

could be very interesting. I think for national politics. So looking back to the mid terms at large Dennis Ross, another House Republican the he's from Florida. He also announced his retirement today, and that brings the total number of house Republicans who have either already retired or plan to you to forty three and that's. According to CNN I mean and looking at the chart, it is unprecedented. Does that start a trend in like free doubts that will cause more people to retire and create almost the self fulfilling prophecy, where it's harder to win seats, when you don't have income, it's protecting them and therefore it's even harder for Republicans to hold their house majority. I think this definitely true. I think that Ryan is joining us rather than I do suspect, maybe he'll I don't. I can't see accelerated 'cause. It's already really accelerated at this point is already already happened. To some extent I mean it's more the Charlie Denson Pennsylvania with a problem, but now we're in a zone where, yes, if you were worse there's still, some

filing deadlines. I think coming up for Congress. I assume most race that can't already, but you thinking about running for the House of the Senate, you Republican and you have already got in Ryan. Deciding to leave is probably even if he left most reasons because of his own things that have to do with winning reelection. Even the slightest thought that Paul Ryan left, because he thought he might lose he's the speaker of the house might lose. I think he is just if you're thinking about running in would cause a couple more tired. I don't know, but I think it's possible we should, but this with make one more point deal a four week close here. They come to the governing party. Little, I do wonder it. Paul Ryan now is in a position where he can handle. He is defended Trump on pretty much everything involving the sort of ethics, corruption, Russia, he behind Devin newness. I think one

which you might be can Paul Ryan's bay. He still runs the you know the most and one of us Pourtant parts of the government. Can his behavior be even five percent less pro trump, because that would make it make a difference. So you mean in the meantime he announced his retirement today he will stop being speaker of the house in January of twenty nineteen from here on out. What is his relationship to look like with Trump? What kind of legislation is he pushing for it that's kind of your question right, I'm not only his legislation at all. I think it's much more about the house is been? Really, I mean the phrase I use all the time, as the house up to now is very, focused on investigating the investigation. You know they newness Mark meadows, a lot of committee chairs, very focused on probing Muller, Rosenstein questioning OJ very aggressively. Really. You know trying to suggest there's two scandals here: one is the Russia

and in one, is how Doj J handle the Russia scandal handled, Clinton. Email at Paul Ryan is stood very much with the republic. So the box, these ground is been very skeptical. You know sort of running a parallel in and I wonder if he feel as much pressure to do that he's leaving in January. In other words, you know that I hate to be sort of partisan of, and I'm trying to avoid that. But there's questions are the rule of law and if Trump is undermining that or not, and I think partisanship aside you know you can see that different publicans, like it's like a like to look at Trey, Gowdy or flake or court, realize with a lot of retiring Republicans, are saying I'm not comfortable with how Trump is you know, viewing the rule of law, and I wonder if Paul Ryan gets any closer to that kind of rhetoric. Now that he's leaving, I have a hard time predicting that Trump or screaming at Paul Ryan, will will take a more Jeff flake route. But

maybe he will, but I think overall, what would this tell this is that we should expect members of the republican caucus to behave in ways that they perceive to be risk averse and say. However, they conceptualize that, as things become more and more uncertain- and that's I think really with what's going on within the party- is it's not clear whose party it is? It's not clear how their how they're going to whether this I like this idea for investigation of the investigation, whether that is going to continue to be that kind of main political story. What will happen when the president will happen in the mid term and all that stuff? All that uncertainty is gonna behavior is going to lead various members of of the Republican House caucus to make the decisions that that they think can kind of be most risk averse. In that context, that runs perhaps a little bit against

what you maybe not predicting, but suggesting could happen I mean: do you think that Paul Ryan takes a step towards protecting Robert Muller or something like that? Or do you think it's more just rhetoric, I generally with Julia that members respondents missing. So I I do think these members who are leaving Congress have different incentives of the ones who are staying so that's kind of what I'm getting it and I think that is there going to be a molar bill on the house floor? I doubt it in part, because majority of Republicans, I don't think, going to support that and I think Mccarthy and Scully people like that, would not want to go to the floor regardless of Paul Ryan himself, but yeah but yeah. I do think no, I'm not sure I'm winning is what I think Paul Ryan will do. I just think rhetorically procedurally we're in uncharted territory in terms of what Trump might do. Yeah, I don't is, is if Trump fires Rosenstein tomorrow will Paul Ryan STAR,

impeachment hearings. I would suggest the answer that, yes, it was no. The is that tomorrow will be no the s that in September will be now, but I do but I yeah, but I do think the speaker of the house is words and behind the scenes actions can matter, and I did I can't really what they are, but I do think that all Ryan's incentive structure is now different in the sense that you know look the the profiles are great going to come out of. You know all right as an eagle like the rest of us do, and I do you know, he's going to read the stories about he's been an enabler of try, but I think he wants to give himself as Mr Policy guy in his mind we can disagree about what it is or not, but I think he wants his rotation to policy innovator and now its policy in a you're in consistent ally of Trump, and I think he would like second part, to go away at all right. Well, Paul Ryan has about eight months left as speaker to work on that. Like

and I will see where those eight months take us, but let's leave it there for now. Thank you, Julia. Thank you and thanks that's a rap, I guess this is our second emergency podcast of the week, but there are two days left in the week. So we'll see what those two days bring. My name is Galen Drexciya soon