Who Hello and welcome to this emergency crossover edition of the five thirty eight politics podcast pine deal in drink. This is a cross over with five thirty eight corona virus, podcast podcast. nineteen early Friday morning, President Trump confirmed that he and the first lady tested positive for covert nine. So far, according to the White House, the president has mild symptoms. The news came after full picks, atop key to the press, also tested positive. Additionally, we learn today Friday that Republican National

many chair, Ronnie Mcdaniel, who was with the president last Friday, tested positive on Wednesday. Vice president might Pence announced on Friday that he has tested negative for the virus. This is obviously a developing, an unprecedented story, and the first thing I ll say is that there is a lot. We don't know. We don't know the severity of the president's case. We don't know the extent of the spread within the White House. We also don't know how the public will react or how this will shape an election. That is assent, the under way, with thirty two days until election day itself, but here too, at the very least described the unknowns, and some of the possibilities are editor in chief mate, silver, Hany Galen. Everybody also, your thus is senior politic writer, Perry, Bacon, Junior, hey Perry, ideal and senior science writer, Maggie Kurth, hey Maggie High welcome to the show Maggie. Let's begin with you, what do we

about the time line of corona virus infections and how long it will be before we really know the severity of the president's case Well I mean that latter question is as much up to the biology of the virus as it is to the White House Press office, but I think that when we are talking about like actual symptom ology of this disease. Doktor say that days. Five through, and are win people who have serious respiratory complications tend to have that show up, especially if their older people younger people can still have that happened later is laid his days ten to twelve. If you get all the waited a fort In the end, your largely symptom, free or doing ok, you're, probably fine. So it's kind of fourteen day window where symptoms tend to develop

kind of in the middle of that is where severity tends to happen, and if the president tested positive on Thursday or Friday, when might he have gotten the virus? Do we now? I dont think that we now- and I think that there are several people trying to speculate back on that on twitter, but with knowing his contacts and who else in the White House has this wells he's been in contact with that? Has this it's really hard to tell there's a decent likelihood that he and hope Hicks it from the same person rather than her necessarily spreading it to him. You know her being diagnosed. That in turn him being diagnosed next day, isn't likely. You know it's not likely that she spread it to him. in a way that was testable one. Later, you kind of need a few days.

is usually, I think they say between five and seven days after exposure before you can get a reliable test results and maybe visas, daft question. But how did he get her even just a jog our memory. How does this thing spread? What are the circumstances or behaviors that would allow the president of the United States to get covert. Nineteen. He is somebody who is on a campaign trail, and that means a lot of exposure to a lot of people and he has kind of famously not been wearing his mask all the time I mean we saw that during the debate where he was making fun of Joe Biden for wearing a mask. More often than He thought was necessary, so I mean with by the time you cause combine the behaviour, all factors of just running for president, with the behavioral factors of not really taking appropriate precautions. It's on

please surprising, he's not got it before now. All so neat and Perry you know. We don't know how this is going to impact the election, but what kinds of things can we think about how this will at least impact the campaign for the next? At the very least two weeks? The president apparently is quarantine for the time being, which means there ll be no in person. Events it remains unclear, Joe Biden will do as a recording Apparently there is some event by an event, emissions that take place and go forward, but that might change the time you listen to this You know I mean it raises questions about like the debate, which is headed for October, fifteenth who's the hard Pike S to record right, it's kind of like issues can be like. We feminism is saying we don't know, we don't know, we don't know that I am here to Maggie's commensurate. like one of things, we all know, is like it's too early to kind of, say. serious or not. The president symptoms will turn out to be

and there's a period between when you get infected and when you might not test positive. Yes, we don't necessarily know that people who have not tested positive so far are necessarily in the clear that might take another Maggie informing but like you- can have a high false negative right if you immediately acquire covered before that shows up in he's your test. So there's really not a lot that we can. We can say, I'm not against speculation for speculation sake. Many American. Have voted or our voting now, elections happening now. Ripe and Americans have to think about this, so I dont think any deference

her pious who were not allowed to speculate. We still really have very good information, so the vice presidential debate, as an actor were set reporting, has been Harris definitively and pins both margin and do not have covered. So that would suggest that where they go off over the debate or not, that would suggest me maybe they could doesn't not till research so that the next big being event in the campaign October, fifteen would be the next presidential of aid between binding and tromp? There would be a sort of at the end of the two week window, presumably if he was gonna quarantine for two weeks away, a lot of people in a biased to do 422nd. Twenty second be outside of that window again window again assume dissolved like about troublesome tromp itself does not love worse or he can't he recur. is pretty well even those so October, Ripley October, twenty second, those debates would seem to be not clear if they will happen, activity tempered,

circular October? Seventh, I would assume, might happen, but I'm not sure about back as those of the last cannot really big events like at matter. Obviously, but the debate Are things were tens of millions will watch? So those are the kind of a big three events left, and I think at this point- I guess it like needs we don't know, and this one of the big you know, one of the biggest unknowns is one of its electoral processes. Will these debates happen? Parent? We don't have any examples of world leaders getting covert nineteen in the final month of Juno on election, but we do have examples of world leaders getting covert like Boris Johnson in the UK. while scenario in Brazil do we know how that shaped. I guess maybe the public's perception of either those leaders or the virus. south my announces, that it looks like he's. A Johnson's numbers went up in the same way that a lot of world leaders numbers even trumps, win up a little bit at the very beginning of the virus, but I think

It is more unpopular now at the start of the start of earth, and it looks around. Did that time here, He really was in the fifties and his disapprove writing was. sort of around thirty and it appears he likes. It went up at the right after you get but system them Johnson is significantly more unpopular then, before the virus outbreak in his heart Opinion on the virus is opposed to being his general governing strategies, and so on. I mean one example of a world leader somewhat similar to tromp who downplay the virus, and then God himself is Gerbil scenario in Brazil and to their certainly the chance that Europe has mild symptoms, and essentially this bolsters his his argument that the virus should you taken all that seriously is a possibility. Here. I mean, I think it would

possibility yeah one of the things. That is a big feature about this viruses that there's a lot of randomness kind of comes into play in terms of what situations and spreading it who is spreading at versus not spreading at what kinds of symptoms. People get verses not, and you can get these in people and very similar situations in a weddings, for instance, where one of goes up without a hitch, a nobody gets sick and another one where ten people die and hundreds get infected. That's one of the things I think that ends making. This virus feel easy to dismiss because almost everybody has examples of themselves being in situations where like Maybe I should have got infected and I didn't so. Maybe it's fine or they know people who got in didn't, didn't, have very strong symptoms, and so it's probably fine, but A lot of this is just bad luck. You know it's it's bad luck or good luck, and we don't really know the factors yet to know

who is more likely to spread it, which secured genes are necessarily in a while some situations with very similar factor transmission factors. One gets at one. Doesn't and we don't really know why some people have stronger symptoms than others, there's some demographic information that seems to be associated with having Severe symptoms, but even that's not like across the board, intimate learn to individual, that's in our population lies yeah mighty. What is that demographic information, I guess we know generally that older people are more at risk. But how do we quantify well? other things I think is really interesting about Trump is that he is in some ways among like the most well protected groups right. You know he is a rich white guy being rich in what are definitely. Things for you. If you are facing this disease mobility is also tied to an educational level and he has a college degree, but, on the other hand, he's also

early and he's probably overweight and in a one thing that we sort of have to consider with those born ilities? Is that the reasons why you get poor people, black and brown people, people logic, lower educational levels? Wonder is it you know they're getting these higher susceptibility and higher side effects. You know outcomes. Risks is because of the way that lifestyles affect exposure right. It's not that poor people with less education somehow genetically more susceptible to cultivate its that they have jobs that are in service industries and other situations where they're just getting exposed more often and for longer periods and their more votes.

Well, because their access and treatment and healthcare is less good and that's not just when they actually have covered, but that's over the course of their lives before that, so they have more pre existing conditions, rights, these kind of thing stacking up, and that is up complicating the president of the. U S is risk and how that works. I think, because the president, is not an average rich white die. So his exposure levels are going to be a lot higher, and some middle level manager, who is work been working from home this whole time and you know maybe wearing a mask winning goes out to the golf course right. He's got a very different set up when it comes to social distancing when it comes out comes to light who all is in contact with him on a daily basis. On the other hand, he probably has better health care access and treatment than even the average which rich white guy.

so I mean I think there is some ways you can almost make a case where the president of the United States and hasn't neatly fit into these predictive categories around demographics, because the way that his job works, the way that a campaign works kind of changes, some of what's going on here, in other words, he's exposed to more people, but those people are loved to be tested than the average person, so we're getting it and if he does get it when he does gotta in this case he has, you know the top positions in the way how's- that Walter Reed we're I mean he has the best access in the world to any kind of treatments. At this point, may I mean he's he's people are probably getting tested more often, but also getting a lot more a lot more exposure, then I think most people are, and

yeah he has. He has like these risk factors with age and obesity, but he also has the best medical treatment possible is going to be afforded to him and it's also complicated because pre existing conditions, we think of them as being sort of obvious and discreet, but they aren't like one of the highest risk factors for Coban complications of hypertension and hypertension, though, is something that is really comment and people- and you wouldn't necessarily know it unless you had had it, come up in some way. So, like fifty nine percent of those sixty five, an older have been diagnosed with hypertension. So there are some of these risk factors that can sort of pile up without it being an obvious like. Oh yours,

You know only twenty percent of people in Wednesday, I looked at only twenty percent of people over the age of sixty five had no risk factors at all. Obviously, everyone hopes that the President, the first lady IRAN, has been infected, get well we're covers, etc, but we're talking about possibilities here and how could shape the election. So what happens if the president has a bad case covered? You know he's all right. We ve already mentioned that. He may well be off the campaign trail for two weeks. What are the ways that our government functions when the president gets really sick? Well, that's what reason why you have a vice president in place. You also have a twenty fifth amendment, where the president is incapacitated. appeared a time then I believe a majority of his cabinet, can and enact the twenty fifth amendment and prevent him from temporarily carrying out his duties. In obviously we're problem.

More concern here. If I hundred and thirty eight with the election self and not with the off the presidency per se, keep my couple of million Americans have already voted or have balloted have printed so, my understanding is that it would be very difficult to physically remove the president's name from the ballot in any scenario, so yeah again. It's just me shrugging in saying there's a lot. Don't know what do you make of how the shapes public perception of the virus I mean so far, we have seen a relatively partisan split on how seriously people are taking covert. Nineteen does the republican president and other people in his orbit high profile role, and getting covert change. That, probably not let me maybe a little bit right but, like you already had Kelly laughter, the. Appointed Republican Centre in Georgia, who's running for reelection, say you know, I can't believe China gave Trump this virus basically need. You said Mark meadows addressing

without a mask on night enough assisted negative. Presumably he has right the polished silver a mask a millionaire like somehow temper problems. You gonna, like get religion and radically change, their behaviour seems unlikely, can't think of a single moment any point in the term presidency, where Trump to a kindly kinder gentler approach, her more than about two hours. So you know I mean if Yes, the president did say hey. You know I was wrong about this. You gotta see firstly, to really bad illness, but just there's nothing ever about presence behaviour that would suggest he would act with any humility. Perry Nate mentioned responses from clay wallflower, for example. What other kinds of responses have we seen from Republicans and Democrats at this point, trumps campaign manager send a memo to the staff to win public debts that rarely is probably the best they said. You know either

You feel like you're, you ve been expose, usin quarantine, and it is you emphasised that you know we support mass, where I have been following all the following major statements of manager, statements of, but is very unequivocal that we support mass wearing, which are there He may say note the whole time another there was distinct by staff did embedded gonna believe you know, but an email from their campaign manager, basically saying we're. Taking this very seriously, we ve been taken is re seriously were very concerned about this now news and buying what camping differently, but that's how can have their messaging it in like a few centres, have been asked about the Supreme Court I process there saying busily we're gonna keep moving forward, no indication that the baron Things will be delayed or that'll change it also far. referred to mark meadows who and there's like this a few wire services have been had been talking to reporters outside network mass I'll, be curious that you know how the White House breathing and things like that go is where it's? So so far like I guess, I'm looking

or something a little bit that'll be hard to see in the numbers. I don't expect. Republican governors to or republican makers to go out and say now, never mind I should have been. It is more serious than I was the whole time in Indonesia. Republic, in both there's wheel, but I'll be curious to see. We see different kinds of behaviour like you were in, like we ve troll starts campaigning again, in two weeks would say he is. It is pretty help enable a campaign in two weeks. I will be curious to see what those events look and a day look the same as they did last week, which has been like masses of people together. Now you know. It looked like they were in the twenty sixteen campaign, I'll be curiously. If there's any changes at all, do a few staffers of trumps, where mass does hope where a mass, even if tromp, is not do the people around Rob change their behaviour. Even if the president will someone

with a little bit. I expect if you're in a democratic state, there's been a lot of fighting over these color restrictions. If you're a democratic mayor or like I expect Andrew Cuomo Andy Bashir, a few Gavin Newsome up view democratic governors who been trying to sort of keep some directions in hand. He encouraged mass worrying to actually mention hey, look by the way. The president has this. We gotta take this really serious about think debt will show up In my question will be also the governors of floor Tennessee this last week have been it get rid of. You know any Kobe restrictions on businesses they visit story Davidson and unsupported of broad mass wearing saw be curious, republican gonna, say to say, I was wrong about this taken more seriously, but I wonder if their actions will change in any way like Europe Publican Governor- and you were thinking about you. rid of all cover. Research is a new state on a Wednesday. Do you

sort of slow the process down and you never knew not can announce in public. I wouldn't do that I don't think I'm looking for their maybe ships that are a little bit subtle, but our interesting yeah. You know, I think the answer to a lot of these things is yet to be seen. We don't know, but we will find out. I want our kind of before we wrap up here, maybe way a bit of a marker down in the ground. We have talked about the state of the race, I guess at least for about a week at this point, but neat. What does the rays look like at this point in time? So we can, in the future, talk about how things do or don't change going forward, because what I've seen things have moved a little bit since the debate on Tuesday. Where are we right now? We are in a position where few action was held today and poles were correct that trumpeted in a landslide, he is around points down international appalling average. If anything, they only a couple. Poles are connected the debate. Those actually had him down further. By nine points

Fourteen points into post debate pulls the presence can bid is not in good shape. The cycle of news stories that were kind of not his. He also accurate, her story, the Supreme Court, having lost debate according to poles, were not a good set of stories for him. I don't know if this will make things. worse or what but yeah. I mean the baseline outcome at this case. At this point. Is that like trumpeted lose but, as you can see, I mean during irony of having on October first can have another October surprise, although, frankly, there is think kind of predictable about. The candidates, who was that a great many precautions getting caught we'd, like many many many other Americans have ripe. But yeah. There is not a lot of It was a special. The sense in our forecasts had trouble with a twenty percent chance of winning, which trivial by This point involve a big pulling error, winning the draw college but not the popular vote.

kind of some passed back to Trump being suddenly popular again are well. I think we will leave things there and, of course we will be back in just a few days on Monday to talk about what new information we have, but that's it for now. So thank you, nay, Perry and Maggie thanks. Gill thanks a bunch galen. Thank you, but my name is given to root. Tony child is in the virtual control room. You can get in touch. My email in us at pie cast at five, thirty, eight dot com. You can also course treated us with any questions or comments. If you're a fan of the show, leave us a rating or review and apple podcast store. Also follow us on Youtube. Thanks for listening and will cease.