More of a reason to tune in chaos. That's that's it. Ok, if I can complete the democratic primary is a chaos monkey. Hello and welcome to the five hundred and thirty eight politics podcast. My name is gay landruk and we've got a lot to discuss today. First of all, tomorrow is election. Hey and were watching competitive races in a number of states. Second, better or work is out of the democratic primary after a lot of hype at the start of his run. Why didn't things turn out so well for him, and then Elizabeth Warren has plateaued in national polls after months of steady increase, as she also released her plan to fund Medicare for all last week. So we'll dig into that, and here with me to do all of that, our senior politics writer climb one has a gun sky. Looking happy Monday, you too, all

as managing editor, Michael Cohen. How are you I'm very good and joining us from Kentucky is Perry, Bacon, junior senior writer? How are you doing very doing great kiss? You got a big election in your state tomorrow. We do This is one of those rare states that has a really off year election. So I won't miss the tv, as that is not a cliche. If you live in a swing state or a state with an election. The candidates, I think, by all the commercials during the football game, so I can describe to you the ads in great I can only imagine also leader in the show, we've got a new segment for you called impeachment data point of the week or something along those lines. Maybe listeners can help us name it. So there's something to look forward to later. On another thing to look forward too: we have some new merchandise at the five hundred and thirty eight store, which is at fivethirtyeight dot com, slash store. They created these new

logo design things with a bunch of graphs and data, you're, really selling yeah right, I'm not purchasing until they get my live polls, sure it out there. The girls are pleased by the shirt. Now they hold tote bags and hats, and also good news. We were off of ABC News, live for a little bit. We weren't recall The video version of our podcast because we were changing studios were now in our new studio and we are back on Ebc NEWS live on tuesdays at four hundred and thirty you're watching this right. Now you can see all of the cute knick knacks behind us. We've got some lincoln logs, a mug. I literally couldn't even like describe some of the stuff. Some straws, that's troubling. Actually what That's it a exactly there's a name for it like the helix ball or something anyway. Let's be with election day, which is on Tuesday

Are there a local elections all over the country? In thirty nine states to be exact but in particular, were focused on state level elections in a few of those states, mainly the governor's races in Kentucky and Mississippi and state legislative elections. In Virginia now, election handicappers have the Kentucky Governor's race rated, either a toss up or lean Republican and the Mississippi Governor's race, as lean Republican. It with polls showing a single digit lead. The five thirty partisan we'd of Kentucky is twenty five points more republican than the national environment and Mississippi fifteen points more republican than the nation so Perry? Why are we seeing relatively close governor's races in such republican states? Well, First of all, we wrote a lot in twenty eighteen. Governor's races have not become as sort of a line with party ide as Say Senate races like increasingly. If you look at this a Us Senate race, just look at which party one for President Europe.

Good sense of who's, going to win versus governor's races. You have the Larry Hogan's like in Meryl, is a Republican. You have the LAR Kelly in Kansas. Who is a Democrat? Dennis, is a little less partisan overall, also, particularly in Kentucky Matt. Is the second or first, depending on what the latest morning console data is most unpopular governor in in the country is I mean he's a conservative Republican he's also like mock teachers, he's very costly in terms of his rhetoric. He unpopular, and maybe not very personally appealing- and I think this dragging down his numbers and making this a closer race than it probably should be. Do we expect that either in Mississippi or Kentucky A Democrat could actually win for governor's. Are we just surprised that these are close races, so my look at the data suggests Mississippi. I'd be very, very surprised if the Democrat won, but here in Kentucky. I do think,

This the polling has been some there's, not a lot of pulling. This is a big problem with these state races, particularly in these red states. The newspapers are not very well funded and there's not a lot of polling, but I would not be surprised that Bashir won this race just because less about Kentucky, just because Bevan is particularly unpopular in particularly dislike is made it a close race. I still think Bevans a favor, but I would not be surprised at all tomorrow and I think Bashir has a very good. You know in the very good chance of winning he's, not the favorite, but he's not a big underdog, no Trump versus Hillary Clinton. Two thousand and sixteen is put something like that Claire Virginia is the one state with legislative elections where it looks like control of the legislative body could actually flip Republicans have very slim majorities in both the House of Delegates and the Senate at the moment. What do those elections tell US the politics of Virginia right now. If the Democrats win the house of delegates, it'll be an entirely democratic, controlled State Virginia, testing state, always because people are always,

just to point out, Northern Virginia is quite different from southern Western Virginia, so it's sorta, the New South come to come into full bloom. If Democrats will take full control of the state, but I think what people are largely pointing to with that house of delegate selection. Is it's a super off here. Right but how many Democrats feel in and will turn out, and I think people are seeing it a little bit as an enthusiasm test. But it is, you know, I think, yes in the sense of Democrats have in the past, let's see fifteen years traditionally paid a little bit less attention to houses and that has been, I think, to the chagrin of many democratic party activists, especially under the Obama presidency, Obama, himself kind of said yeah. Maybe I didn't do enough to build the party from the bottom up. So I think, that's in some ways and important sort. Of example, of the kinds of victories, the Democrats typically don't much attention to and Republicans did and so perhaps

marks a new era of ok building blocks on the state level at the beginning of the year, there was trio of scandals in Virginia regarding the governor, lieutenant governor and attorney general with reports of two of wearing black face and then the lieutenant governor himself some accusations of sexual assault, and it was kind of the whole was at a stand still for a second does it seem like any of that is actually playing. Into these races and making it harder for Democrats. Well, they're, not but I mean you know, the executive branch is not on the ballot, so in some ways it's in that those two officials have the Governor governor are still in office, they both kind of, those scandals out, but yeah I mean, I think it just doesn't play a fact, right now in in those yeah. Well, I mean we'll have to wait a little bit and see, but Trump is also really unpopular there, so you're. So even if the executives in Virginia are a drag on Democrats than you have the executive of the country being a drag on

cancel each other up against. Maybe I don't you know we'll have to say what I'm interested in there is so we're all wake up Wednesday an there will be like a plethora of takes about what all this means or two thousand and twenty, and in particular the gubernatorial races. Some interesting dynamics there, where you have a local, the an unpopular republic in trying to tie his moderate democratic opponent to the National Party, the Democrat trying to run on healthcare trying to distance himself a little bit from impeachment. I would be very cut. You know it's like the elections taking place in Kentucky and Mississippi. I would be very, very cautious when interpreting what the results say about twenty two

hey if nothing else made that destroy everything in a bucket and and look at it all right and we're actually going to have a reaction podcast Wednesday morning to those elections. So we'll have an opportunity to talk a lot more about those races once we have actual results so tune in but we're gonna move on for now, since we have so much to discuss and talk about the end of it better or works bid for the presidency. Now, if I recall, when he entered the race, we actually did an emergency podcast. You know he had his vanity fair cover shoot. You know people expected that he might be a front runner in this race, Perry. What happened! I think I'm going to put a little blame on myself and people in the media. I think and say that I thought that a Iraq, Obama, style. Persona base candidate, who wasn't particularly left or police interests would do really well, I saw I saw Beto is somebody who is campaigning Texas went

Well, there seem to be sort of a groundswell people looking for him Wasn't a Sanders sand. He wasn't as old as Biden. I just thought he do very well, and I know PETE Buttigieg taken some of that lane, but Budaj just clippered, clearly in fourth place with the democratic favors right now or three people in their seventies to pretty liberal people, pretty moderate, older person. So I think part of it is like I'll put myself sorry, I may have Miss assist the democratic, like and its desire for a style person and I think that's the Monday Fundamental back to me as we can talk about what he did or did to his campaign to my senses. Maybe he was a strong of a candidate from the start yeah I mean I think we were decent. Skeptical of his Senate campaign, you know we, we kind of always said he's, probably not going to win, but he is. There was obviously a lot of enthusiasm and I think, the reason why he ended up getting into the race kind of boil down to two factors, one he he showed up

fundraising prowess, and maybe that had to do a lot with TED Cruz and people's dislike of TED Cruz. But two people saw him as I guess you know this. I sort of group this kind of like older millennial, younger yuppie, whatever group of white politicians who sort of came of political age in the era of Obama, where they're trying to mimic Obama. Style of soaring campaign rhetoric and all that stuff, while also being for the Trump age kind of playing the identity. Politics of like pull nice white guy. Now I think O'Rourke's campaign I think, people undersold how much people didn't like TED Cruz in Texas and people nationally didn't like TED Cruz. So he probably got a lot of fundraising dollars from that, but I think he was crowded out in the younger Biden Lane right like if you don't. Like Joe Biden's politics, but you don't want to vote for an older man for me or as has become apparent, need people to judge.

Footage. Everyone talks about Bugental Roark were kind of competing for the young guy lane. I think what really to me in sort of the the wreckage of a campaign is that he Billy organizationally wasn't fully prepared for a national, the organization versus I remember talking to PETE Budaj edge early, two thousand and seventeen when he was run. Dnc Chair and he already had kind of a big deal, media person right like he was Setting the stage where is wrote like so searching diary post, which Sir understandable on a human level but organizationally you you, you want someone who's, not waffling to get into a presidential run and see. I think you know we can talk about the Vanity fair cover and how much it it may be sort of really push things over the edge into the almost of a joke. In some ways it was the whiplash quick reversal of media darling during the Senate campaign, and I think just it's kind of rare

you can pinpoint exactly when a narrative or a tide turns against a candidate and for a work. It's very Pinpoint Obel, my God, do you feel like the arc of Beto's political where over the past two years or so, and how he ended up doing in the democratic primary tells us something about the Democratic Party today in terms of what's viable, what's not what's attractive. What isn't? Oh, that's a tough one. I think there are many explanations for O'Rourke's rise and fall that don't tell you that much like one explanation which Claire is getting at is just that. The better stick didn't play well on a national stage right that it in the context of a Texas Senate race

It didn't seem that odd that he would run for Senate, but once you get into a presidential race- and you have this young white guy running against a big field that includes a lot of accomplished- women accomplished people of color in the context of a democratic primary. It just doesn't look at as good. None of that was within his control relay except deciding to run for president, but it just sort of like it hit what he was selling in the context of of the national stage. Just didn't didn't look as good. I also wonder a little bit weather There are non fundamental factors that maybe you could point to that. If he had, them a little bit better? Maybe things would have gone differently? You know when he first got into the race. He raised a ton of and there was a little bit there where the polls showed him not

doing amazingly well, but you know in the high single digits low double digits. So, if Beddo had like not gone on that soul search and whatever whatever maybe there's also I mean or or can, Booker were kind of me the most prominent examples of people. I mean to use bookers words preaching the politics of love right. The idea that trying to be Trump opponents, but in a nice way and it it hasn't, really landed, and I think to me the last debate, threw it into such stark relief. Where I mean I've been dinged for calling it the emergence of Mean PETE, but I think it's the most it's the most concise way of saying I mean the really went after O'Rourke for being like under last unrealistic, yeah and use all works in our in our tracking poll. You so rooks numbers really go down after and I kind of attributed to a couple of moments with budaj is just sort of you know, cornering him.

Into something and the opposite. Bridges has done better sense, correct, yeah! Well, that's it! That's! The other thing is like we can point to vanity fair. We can point to a couple sort of missteps, perhaps on the or campaigns part, but look like one other way to explain is just better when Texas did really well with college educated white voters right there was a ton of competition in this field for college, educated, white voters and like not that many people can do well with one with one group. So I don't I'm I'm not inclined to read that much. I saw Nate note after he dropped out of the race was oh, it turns out this kind of like super woke cultural stance paired with eight, a neoliberal economic worldview, there's just not much of a market for it. So is that to fine tune of a read on better working doing well, it could just be ok. The field didn't work out for him, yet so yeah. So I tend to think look. Maybe you flip the coin

slept a couple times differently, and maybe he does better. Also, there was just a lot of competition. There is something that to the idea that if you were targeting like white liberals, okay, there's a lot of white liberals, wait quote unquote. Will click girls in the demo Party right. If you were targeting moderate whites, there's also a ton of moderate whites in the Democratic Party this time and the young vote send a democratic party. There's not a lot of young and white. And moderate voters in the Democratic Party and so the your campaign kind of pivoted away from from that a little bit kind of halfway through but parries written about this, you know that section and white and moderate, it's just a really small part of the party, as opposed to white and moderate, got it finally just wrap up here at Perry. It sounds like better work has decided not to run for Senate again in Texas. Is

the right choice. Yeah, I mean, I think, based on just his campaign. Didn't he didn't do very well in the campaign. I think he's, probably the positions that are probably to the left of where Texas is electorally. Also it you know, I I think one thing he was hinting it. We do want to run before, as I do think that top of the ticket he's not going to be running his own campaign like he was running in the Senate in two thousand and eighteen, where he could outrun the ticket like he did pretty well compared to other canvas. Naturally I don't you know, I think his assessment is correct. His age were hiding in this, is the you know, your results in the Senate, race in a presidential year are pretty much driven or highly correlated to the top of the ticket and so he ran or not his sodus, whatever his special sauce was in two thousand and eighteen was not going to apply to twenty twenty anyway. Well, that's an interesting thing to keep in mind when we look ahead to some of those Senate races in two thousand and twenty. But let's move

connect to Elizabeth Warren and her plan to pay for Medicare for all. But first today's podcast is brought to you by quip. What actually makes a better toothbrush industrial strength, power claims of miraculous trendy ingredients? Multiple modes? If you ask your dentist, they'll tell you it's less about the brush and more about how you use it. That's why I quit was created by dentist San product designers to focus on what actually matters for your oral health, healthier habits, quip, sensitive vibrations, with a built in timer guide, gentle brushing for the dentist recommended two minutes with 32nd pulses, ensuring an even clean quip automatic levers brush heads to you every three months for clean new bristles right on schedule. These thoughtful features make brushing something you actually want to do twice. Every day, quip starts at just twenty five dollars and you'll get your first refill free at get quippy dot com, slash five

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as she's gotten increased push back from her rivals on how she will pay for Medicare for all which she called out in a plan that she released on Friday. So, let's start here Claire. What's the explanation for why Warren has plateaued where she is in the race right now go to mid 20s. Well, I think it's in some ways. The sort of natural breakdown in the primary Warren has better numbers among democratic voters, as far enthusiasm goes, but I think people are worried about her in Electability areas- and that has to do with, I think largely, although not limited to her more progressive stances, particularly in healthcare and, let's say, wealth taxes. So, I think you know seeing Warren, and I guess nationally Biden Right vying for things there does seem to be reached some kind of ceiling for now. As far as people saying

Ok, is she the one for sure I want strategically? This is who I want to send to the general election, and I do that there are. She has she, good numbers when it comes to like second she's someone. Second choice right like those that she shows a pretty bra appeal there, but I think there's a never hang up as far as the numbers go for voters about whether or not they think in a general election. Her policy platform will be as palatable to general election voters in frankly, certain states yeah. Since the most recent debate, a lot of the conversation started Warren has been about health care. You know, there's no real way that we can tell looking at the numbers of that's the reason that she's plateaued here, but Is that a real challenge for her? Is that like a press invention or I think it's the press, invention because Bernie Sanders. I think in some ways in twenty seventeen laid, the a down when he had his Senate Medicare for all

still right, which every single Senate Democrat, who ended up running for president sign on including Warren and she's, always said I'm with Bernie's plan. I think interesting to watch is how you know. I'm not strategically. If health care for the Democrats during this primary is ness the the issue that you want to make the issue I mean, I think in some ways the wealth issue right: the wealth tax, that's uh, popular issue, taxation, taxing the rich. I mean Sanders talked. I feel like there's a lot more conversation about college plan, the last election and it's really become, at least in the last couple debates felt like such a health care. Thing, and that is the policy point Appan which of the Democrats disagree and it led to a lot of kind of at it was extremely sharp elbowed internecine conflict. So it's the big issue. It's something that democratic voters really turned out for in two thousand and eighteen, but it also

reveals real rifts in the party, so we discussed the politics of health care, pretty recently, and I don't think you were with us for that discussion, but in general we noted that you know polling shows Democr that's number one priority in terms of policies is health care and that there's more public support for a public option than single pair Warren has now released this plan to pay for Medicare for all she's sticking with Medicare for all from looking at that plan, Perry who do you think the audience is? What's the political calculation here plan is explicit. About not increasing middle class. Texas are like the way they've written. It is like it's not a direct middle class tax increase, so the so the audience I think, is to some extent voter concerned about electability and if we're going to take a stance that probably is going to be unpopular, middle class taxes would increase the jump back briefly, we talked about why Warren has sort of peaked in the polls. I think,

potential elk outcome is maybe her natural ceiling was twenty five to thirty or something like that? Maybe she wasn't going to keep gaining just because she got the support she kind of killed off. You know she got the camel hair support that she is without a measly zero Warren. Zero know Sanders is pretty stable now, but maybe warrant gather natural support question is like Sanders. I sort of assumed to be honest with you. The heart attack would be problematic, in his numbers, with decline, an and he's kind of bounced back like health wise, but also he's getting in he's all doing well in New Hampshire, so I do think Sanders hasn't re. Risen, but Sanders has a state stayed where he is and that's pretty helpful to him and probably my if he had declined to single digits, that would have helped Warren, and the third thing on this healthcare issue is: I don't think this is actually a real health care debate and

which no one thinks Medicare for all is going to pass in twenty twenty one. Warren doesn't need this job item, so this is why I can't tell them I think, but I think in order the voters, I think, but I think we're really talking about is PETE Joe Biden can't say so white guys in Michigan that won't vote for Warren, but they can say healthcare hell, here she's unrealistic. So if you substitute electability Medicare for all, then that would make every conversation more clear, 'cause, we're sort of I spy. I think we're having a fake discuss, health care when we're having Yes and I like to do it again. No one feels comfortable talking about candidates, can't talk about electability directly, because it's sort of all but in reality this is what this meta is for. All this, like the question that product party is how risky, how aggressive how the transformational can we be and still The general election Warren and Sanders are saying pretty transformation. Tle, Biton and PETE are saying,

less transformation, tle and that's what we're really talking about here in her health care plan. Address is one issue in that it doesn't raise middle class taxes, but it So the issue in the we're talking about twenty trillion dollars in total spending, this being kind of rearranged. Joe Biden and Peter, going to use that twenty billion number does make it scary as possible over and over again, take your points about the health care being a stand in for some for trying to talk about basically electability with white men in the Midwest and I think that's partially right, although I don't want to fully, I mean I struggle, It's about like how to essentially like under centralized Elizabeth Warren's campaign 'cause. I think it's a big component there, but I also think with Warren and Sanders there are, even if it's like, let's say, sophisticated,

voters and people in the media, even if everyone is kind of realistic about listen Medicare for all is not going to be the way country does health care in the next five years. Probably in the next ten years. I do think still a sense among people with Warren and Sanders that the kind of wholesale rewriting of Foundational systems are scary and the like reality of those things haven't fully been fleshed out for people. So Some of it is definitely the identity politics of who appeals to specific orders in upper midwestern states, for instance, who are men who Democrats need to come back because the electoral college system- and some of that is like they don't want to vote for a little more and she's a woman. Maybe, but I do think I can't under emphasize the fact that, like healthcare and the wealth tax stuff is emblematic of woe,

Is this anti american like? I don't think we should undersell that dynamic in the or in the election this year. The other thing is like there's policy and then there's like policy as proxy for attitude. One way to look at the and so far as like. Ok, okay, Harris had a big surge after the first debate got some scrutiny for healthcare kind of bungled, the response, and then down in the polls. Warren rising, rising rising in the polls starts to get some questions on how she's going to pay for healthcare kind of bundle, service HANS, wait, awhile to release a plan, search the plateau in the polls so maybe I don't know, maybe voters are really attuned to healthcare, they're, really looking at what the I'd say on it and holding them account for like. There any holes in their in their answers, or maybe it's just like the certain cycle to the media and when it naturally goes to a negative cycle of attention that tends to correspond with a downtick in Akena. To pour support.

Okay, Warren has not released a plan that avoid saying I'm a raise taxes on the middle class, because that position would be unpopular. The whole plan of some popular right Medicare for all taken way, private insurance is not popular, so So how exactly are the politics working here? You know what I mean like is. Why aren't really saving herself support by not raising taxes on on the middle class might starring, as I'm just kind of what Perry said, which is like not so much at? This was always warm ceiling, but that this was like the low hanging fruit, he picked up a lot of the very liberal voters. A lot of the more liberal, somewhat liberal voters and kind of this is where we are and that health care doesn't have that much to do with it. Honestly, I do think if Warren is not win this primary, I will have the question of, the moment in July, where I would argue it was pretty clear to me Medicare for everybody who wants it. Is

obviously going to be more popular in Medicare. For all so are any she really wants to win this thing has a choice? Does she back down this one issue: keep other seven positions that are pretty left concede. That Sanders is going to be to the left over on this issue and try to win that way, or did you try to match Peters on left, leftward ism and then maybe be vulnerable to PETE and Biden attacking or the way they are now This is a big. This is, I don't think this is not easy call. It was a hard call, I tend to think made the wrong one elect play, but this was a defining moment, the campaign and you're seeing how it played out now. This is a great question of like, if our had come out for Medicare for all who want it? What would

Support done early, the bar campaign thought okay. The best electoral thing is what that is. Is we we stay to the left and look she kept climbing in the polls long after they came out for that, so in some sense I think they were proven at least so far right. She picked up in during that time a lot of very liberal voters who maybe wouldn't of come on board if she had not stay to the left side? Maybe we maybe we disagree here on that health care poll show it's the most important issue, except for beating Trump for democratic voter It's an interesting question, but I think- and I think basically guys are are envisioning is an Elizabeth war? campaign, where she's running as Elizabeth Warren on all her sort of trademark issues that everyone kind of knows her for kind of remake. The financial system, but on health care sheet. A running like a PETE through Judge Esque campaign in order to kind of compete with Biden on a practical level.

I understand what you guys are saying from the electoral strategic point of view, because yeah, like those plans, are more popular. But I also think the one thing her campaign has done. I think, largely to its credit is have a pretty coherent, ideology and Warren's reputation is about systemic change it would have been weird, it would have been discordant in some ways and I think could have seen this weird. What happened to frankly, which is like I am. I am doctor for dining this campaign and I'm going to like take a bit here and there were going to build the perfect thing, but it turns out to be a monster right like in a kind of crashes and burns, which is what I think happened,

but with Harris. So I don't know, I guess I get what you mean from a strategic point of view, but I wonder if it would have kind of fallen flat on the book to use this word authenticity front right. It was a hard question, but I do think it's worth noting. The wealth, tax in her increasing the rich and all those ideas about fighting the wealthy are very popular democrats. Pretty popular by will be Republicans with the general election. A wealth tax is not a bad position for your electability unless you're worried about losing donors on Wall Street, which is a problem, but that's different. The Medicare for Our position is different in Warren. Now to her she's uh, partition, and I would argue in general, has happens to have taken bold. Transformation, so stances that poll well and with even with Republicans One instance- I would argue- I agree we've been it would've, looked like a wimping out to have taken the p position. I do think in this, like healthcare is different like that.

More credits los the house in ninety four because of health care. They this is the house in twenty ten, because health care, I do think, there's a health care amnesia like. I don't think on health care was an issue where I would argue for her. She might look back and be like if this was one she should have chosen of course, she's still very much in the race. She still very much the second you know pulling in second, and so this could all end up working out for her we're going to see with time. But I go ahead and make up no just going to say, but you know absolutely, she is pulling in and what I would say, that was like the evidence that she has plateaued and maybe and then falling a look fall in a little bit in the polls is pretty conclusive. Are quantitative, LAR Bonner, calculated average that just house effects as part of this other project, and it shows Warren at least plateauing and maybe maybe dropping a little bit

so like. There was a little bit of time there, where I think a lot of people were calling her the front runner or co frontrunner, and I even at the time that seems like a little much, but now I think by now has a clear. On on Warren MIKE, I guess I would question I would ask- was you were hinting that this is just about? Is this about health care and Medicare, or just about the scrutiny phase like you were hinting before, that kind of right now that PETE appears to be going up in some polls that I want to make that too long, but is PETE now going to enter, is just this about Warren and health care, or is this about any candidate who rise in the polls gets this kind of extra media scrutiny and it's going to come to PETE,

He can he's gonna have a similar problem on the ice in a police seeing or or what he's done itself been or something, but it's coming to me about. What is it about Warren is about just the media hits you hard when you're at the front, and this is what happened why it could be about okay, it could be about healthcare, it could be about health care as a proxy for electability. It could be about just this was low her. She got her low hanging fruit. This was always her kind of now. Roll pause point or it could be about media media cycles like we do not know how to rap I do want to mention one pole. Last week, a New York Times Siena College Poll came out from Iowa showing that Warren is leading there, so it still leaning, in fact she had been doing pretty well in Iowa, but that Sanders and Buddha Judge had gained ground, and so there now, both within four points. She's at twenty two sanders is at nineteen budaj, eighteen and then by at seventeen, when we had talked about Warren's path to the nomination in the

past, it looked like doing quite well in Iowa and New Hampshire, the first two states if this becomes like a four way race in Iowa. What does that mean for the trajectory of this primary school I mean this is the question mother answer that question. This is the question that most frequently asked the question which is hard. Give a clear answer, but I mean I was at a wedding this weekend and people ask me this I don't know I think, is going to win what I mean to say is this, which is, I think, if it becomes this or person race in Iowa and New Hampshire. It does throw thing. Into a weird chaotic period, Does voters like a winner right? Voters are kind of simple in that way, right if, let's say same person wins Iowa New Hampshire, even if it's not Joe Biden, who might be the strategic choice as many demo

that would want then that person has. Then you know the war in or the Buddha Judge who wins say: Iowa New Hampshire becomes all of a sudden like hey, ok, I can. I can stomach that person like, I think it's much more of an open race right now and you do start to see peoples like the incredulity, where people will say like whoa, I'm still has a chance, because read a lot of like bad press about and that's, and that is honestly the thing you hear the most often like. If you live, I think in a bigger urban Is people really being surprised that like binding, a very, very, very much in the race, the favorite. What about this for take? Okay, the judge to win Iowa, definitely yeah, I think so, but he's not in it right. So he could win I'll yeah for sure Warren does not have to win Iowa the you have to win Iowa or New Hampshire, yes for sure and she's got, feel like looking strong if she does

when Iowa, because Iowa is her best stay out of the first four? yeah, we can debate new but I think Sanders strong. There yeah she she for sure has to win. One of those I mean Buddha Judge definitely does right because, like those white voters are like his people electorally and he's, he also doesn't have the national numbers, the other candidate, a tab, so he would have to do well in Iowa to get that like Petina of being a winner and then because he said he is still allowed, Jimmy Carter, etc. Right 'cause. He is still being introduced, like I think, that's again a thing to be reminded of blue Ridge is still, I think, he's known, but I don't think he's Well known, you know more and more Tunein, blah blah blah the same old lines, but there isn't as finally drawn sense of who he is yet. I guess I would say I have a great amount of confusion, so

national policy say. Mine is a very clearly but it's weird to be the frontrunner nationally and sort of clearly but be you know he could very reasonably finish. Fourth in Iowa and third in New Hampshire and so I assume that would change the national numbers of those things both happen, so that would make the national polls different his black vote lead. I think, would he's strong, also like the gap between being so, strong in Iowa and so weak with black voters and south in South Carolina, particularly those are sort of dining I don't think I recognize some previous campaigns and the fact Bernie and Warren is sort of in this similar kind of the lanes. Thinking be overdone, but I do think there are some voters. Are going to be looking as the process as farther, if you're a lefty person in Bernie's finish ahead of worn in seven states, I'm guessing you might just I just use Barney because he can win he's lefty too. So I am a little bit struck.

Bye, I don't have a lot of confidence things to say here only because I don't like having front runner running on his ability to win states could finish. Fourth in and third, the next one is uh. Dynamic! Yeah, I think its own guy running is the next Obama, who has no black support. Diane, and I think it's going to be interesting to that very point, and we, I think we talked a lot about this, which is like the order of operations of primary states, makes a difference in the full like we don't have a national primary, the the order matters. I am I'm interested to see how campaigns spin this to the public I mean by this campaign, has already done a certain amount of ground of saying, like to win Iowa he'll be like it for his dinner, the not waiting, but we don't need to win until June. He's got yeah exactly like all like that is that is most certainly a line coming out of Biden's campaign. It's gonna be interesting to see how like how is yeah like how is Buddha, judges campaigns squaring the fact that, like okay

white people in the Midwest, like I'm, perhaps the people in the woods like him too, in New Hampshire, but like what everyone else right like. I think and there's there could be an interesting dynamic here, because more and more democratic, voters, perhaps voters in general are ok with, idea of institutional change in Government Papa Block, I think you're, seeing a lot of like campaign operatives talking primary system as a way to talk about their candidate appeal? There's going to be, I think, a little bit more of spin percolating through the system here aimed towards First to say like well the system kind of weird here, but our guy is still the best guy for blah blah blah no totaly. Unlike look the mess in Iowa. I think the confusion is absolutely the right response to that 'cause, the because it's sequential as Claire a and I would just adds uncertainty to everything, but look like more to mess, maybe like

and could win Iowa with, like twenty two percent of the vote. Right and then what happens, you know yeah, It helped him alot well. Winning state affect the race, is the primary as you can tell. He It means that. Well, I guess this is all kind of good for us This is the last you'll hear us talk about it ever more of a reason to tune in chaos. That's that's the chaos exclamation point. The democratic primary is a chaos monkey, let's rap read our new segment on impeachment and before we do that, today's podcast is brought to you by honey. Giving holiday gifts is great overspending on all those gifts is definitely not so why spend more than you have to find the lowest price is easy. If you have honey, honey is a free browser extension that automatically finds the best

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you have a better idea for what to call this. You know how to get in touch with us and our impeachment data point for this week is two hundred and thirty two to one hundred and ninety six. That is how the vote broke down week on the impeachment resolution laying out the rules for the public part of the inquiry. What is the significance of that data? Two hundred and thirty two to one hundred and ninety six? What does that tell us about politics of impeachment. It just tells us a lot of things. We sort of already knew we're in a more partisan environment than even one thousand nine hundred and ninety nine is a very partisan environment. You basically had, a lot of evidence that Trump did some not great things involving Ukraine assume that maybe should be investigated like, but I think What I saw was the Republicans treated the we have it in peach? I guess everybody fair all of APOLLO.

And I think treated. Should we have an impeachment investigation, as should treat be impeached, and I think the answer is the, but that's the, but we got. Basically, I think the republican members probably felt correctly that if they voted for the impeachment inquiry truck with a tacked on to they are, they could be challenged in primaries and that affected the results. I think you could imagine a world in which impeachment inquiry and impeachment are not the same question and that was not at all. We saw So I must remember we had that debate on the podcast about what the political strategy Republicans would employ. It's almost like. I was right in that debate and that they would hold the line at all costs. Look at you and to clarify there were two lawmakers who broke ranks. It was two Democrats who voted against the inquiry. All Republicans voted against the inquiry Should we just assume now that that's what the final vote is going to be in the house? I think that should be

strong strong, strong starting assumption, and then you just wait for strong evidence to the contrary. You saw a little bit of reporting that there were some republicans who could vote on the substance articles of impeachment differently. I think we all have reason to be very, very skeptic with that. Maybe I can see a lot of which may be a democrat or two looks at the polling in their district, an maybe it shows it in peach If you're in maybe one of these particularly read or you know trump districts, maybe you sort of say all the investigation with strong impeachment divisive. I can see my thinking hopefully, you'll see a Democrat or two flip to voting against impeachment. I don't think any things are going to look for it. I think that's like this ship to sail pairing. I talked about this for an article we working on before the boat and parry predicted. On this perfectly. I was a little surprised, republican members who had announced that they were retiring, that there weren't any defections

there, so what yeah? What's the reason for that like well heard, for example, he could have voted for the inquiry. He's retiring he's pretty moderate and he's one of the three lawmakers who's in a district that Hillary Clinton won remaining Republicans. Who is in a district that Hillary Clinton like? Why didn't he I had a fairly cynical theory that was implied in the article and I'll give it more directly now, which is that, if you're will her Do you want to work at defense contractor doesn't make a lot of money. After this, I I'm being very people here, but I happen to think if you're republican you going to lobbying firm. You want to make a lot of money after this. You have to assume that sticking with your side is useful for that Trump might win can term, and then it's really useful for that. So uh I don't wanna say they put money over over conscious already, because I think they might be complete in the issues too, but I do think there's incentives to sort of stick with the team, even if you're not actually leaving Congress like it, I think, is the boat over. Like

whether Trump should have said AOC should go back to our country and I think will hurt my vote differently, but I think up here, vote, unlike basically should Trump be president. Should he's should he bit for president? I can It will hurt us in the Senate to vote against that kind of a on the flip side. You had Democrats in pretty red districts, districts that are fifteen or so points more republican than the country as a whole. According to our participant lean, who still voted with the Democratic party line to open the impeachment inquiry. Why didn't we see more Democrats just hedging their bets, especially this close to an election? Well, they still room as their bets. The two tier nature of the vote gives them kind of some political cover holding wise opening in it. An impeachment hearing is decently. Popular voting for impeachment is not as popular and so those people still have a way to say. Listen, I felt

we should investigate the president. I thought we should look into this once I was presented with evidence and wait it. I decided not to vote. You know not to vote for impeachment. They have a couple months to you, know your finger in the air and see which way the wind is blowing in their district, and I think policy knows that, and probably has you know, accounted for a little bit of a cushion within within that vote within that caucuses. That's. This will also now marks the beginning of the public portion of this inquiry. I think, as soon as next week, they could start having public hearings. Do we expect that the public hearings are going to change public opinion? I think I don't. I tend to think sorry goodbye when I love, I wanna consisted Perry now and he's like yeah. I know it's got a flat public hearings, won't matter that and and and Perry's right that, that's probably just that's, probably the safest assumption I do.

That there is some polling. That shows that so ok Democrats think what Trump did on Ukraine is horrible and one impeach him right cut to side for a second, everybody else is more Luke warm on impeachment, but they are pretty split on the actual substance of what Trump did, and so I think, if you have weeks and weeks of blood but for the sake Democrats argument, let's say well coordinated hearings that messaging hammering away at multiple instances of a quid pro quo, an I do think there's room there not for like you're, not going to see Republicans wholesale become pro impeachment. But what, if you know, independence who were like five thousand and fifty right now or thereabouts? What if they get to sixty,

forty for impeachment. You know that that makes a difference. I think yeah to me it's not about it's, not about congressional republicans, changing their votes. The televi Hearings are about the potato bill to either suppress the votes of Republicans, who were reluctant Trump voters right or two yes convince those independent voters that, like yeah, maybe I should vote for again. I think it's contingent on who wins the democratic primary, but maybe voting for the democratic nominee? If it's someone more moderate, but I think you know it's not going to change Trump will likely be impeached in the house and will not will likely not be yeah will likely be acquitted in the Senate, but I think it becomes. Factor in the general election. Certainly about you know being a not just a character. If Trump, because obviously that has been something that failed right in the last election. That's what Clinton tried to make the last election about a character test of Trump, but I do think the idea that

you know if people see him as being unpatriotic using a power corrupts and national security store. Yeah then there is there are. I think there are threads that could be convincing to the to the swing voters all right. Of course we will see what happens and if listeners see any impeachment data points throughout the coming weeks or so and you'd like to hear us discuss them, send them my way and we will discuss it here. That's it for now. Thank you, Claire thanks. Galen. Thank you Micah. Thank you. Thank you. Perry. Thanks Gail, my name is Gail, wonder if Tony Chow is in the control room, our intern is J Carlo. You can get in touch by emailing us at podcast at five thirty eight dot com. You can also, of course, treated us with any questions or comments. If you're a fan of the show leave us a rating or review in the Apple podcast store or tell someone about us thanks for listening and we'll see