Why my hosting you wanna you guys should host it. hello and welcome to the five hundred and thirty eight politics podcast I am like a common galen drew are normal host is out today. The twenty twenty democratic field continues to grow, which means it's time for some Smith, music. In the last few weeks, Colorado Senator Michael Bennet Montana, Governor Steve Bullock in New York City Mayor Bill De Blasio all entered the race today, we're going to spend some unpacking build the blasio's theory of the case here with me to do that. Our editor in chief Nate Silver, hey? How are you Micah, very good, thank you and senior politics. Writer Clare Malone, hey Claire! He make a in this past month. We've also seen restrictive abortion legislation, so and in Georgia Alabama and Ohio additional.

I was in Louisiana and Missouri are expected to be signed soon. Sun today show we're going to look into what's behind the spate of new abortion bells, as public opinion changed on abortion, Finally, will take an early look at the non presidential races in twenty twenty. Can Democrats win the Senate? Can Republicans win back the house, we'll see what we know so far, but let's begin with build Last Thursday New York City Mayor Bill De Blasio kicked off his presidential run with a video entitled working people first, where he cast himself as tough, progressive and a champion for the Working class He took care to point out that as a fellow New Yorker, he knew how to take on Donald Trump. Calling him quote con a couple times on good morning. America, guys we ought to think of a good nickname for Gma. They should have made this month a little longer

The nickname already elicited over a bottle video, though from from the present on Twitter, where he called the pause here, the worst mayor in New York, city's history with that, but the hat, let's dive into the history of the is Claire. Where is builder blasio situated within the party to Blasio is a progressive word that holds. Little to no meaning anymore. As far as being descriptive, I would say to blase is kind of The the original sort of social Justice Progressive G, but I believe he was on John Edwards- is two thousand and seven presidential campaign. If people will remember, it was the whole. There are two America. It's a focus on poverty when to came into office in twenty thirteen. He was a bit of a surprise

the New York may oral election. His whole thing was basically about income inequality, particularly in New York, which obviously has a huge problem with that. So I would say that the blasio is a progressive progressive. You know he's on the left, he's not a Bernie Sanders. Democratic Social, in part, because I think being mayor of New York and being involved in New York Politics imbues in beauty, with some sense of pragmatism. Now we can go into whether or not bill the blood to actually wield his power well with the New York and I'm kind of assuming we will, since we all live in New York City, but I would say, he's kind of a standard left progressive in today's twenty nineteen Democratic Party need your. You agree with that yeah. No, I think that's the right characterization as compared to like a lot of people in the primary both on the left hand, side of the prime and overall, he sort of can point to a track record There are not a lot of candidates with executive experience period in the field is the big city to some

it's the biggest and best city in the world bomb thing because it might be the best best in the world. I mean it's not that controversial Clint. Where else we better, I mean Okay, yeah, give me a city. Give me a better son. I mean I have certain biases in this. Like Barcelona is one of my favorite cities, or someone doesn't hold a candle to work. I see this is of the near could be pretty here I mean obviously the cities that you're better than start with Washington DC. Definitely what's so based on all this, the boss, there should be president okay. No, I thought about that because, like I think that some of his national reputation is hurt by the fact that so many journalists live in New York. I was talking about that this this weekend with someone who's a life top level New Yorker, and he was

like you know? Actually, the blasio has been a good mayor in a lot of ways for what people kind of thought they were electing right, like the city now has universal Pre k in a program. That's pretty successful, but I think that you know I would call that his kind of marquee program but to Blasio is a, I think, a difficult. Malady people who and by the way, like there's so many smart, talented, like dogged city. Reporters in New York that, like I'm, not even going to pretend pretending to like know the in's and outs of New York politics, but I don't think he has a great reputation. For interpersonal leadership, He also has a reputation for not being at city hall that much for like working out of his gym, but also just like not being at the office enough. That's the thing, but I think the really big dynamic that that peeves people is the

Elmo dynamic? It's the city state dynamic, which is New York, is the city in America. It has. It has a lot of power in some sense, but in another sense it is the whims of a governor who has other constituents, so the big problem, with the subways where Cuomo and the state itself have since a lot more power than the mayor does, and the fact that that the blasio you able to lean on New York state politicians in a way that I think, a lot of new Yorkers kind of Their mayor could has really gotten a lot of l well. So, first of all, one piece of contacts is The blasio is someone who, although not overwhelmingly popular his approval ratings, are about break. Right now he was re elected by a very large margin, and what was like thirty seven points or something and has spent more of his mayoral term being being more popular than unpopular, but uh

popularity comes from voters who are not white, which of course, in the elect in New York. Is it a majority of the elect and so the boss, you're someone who's, never been all that well kind of regarded by like kind of college, educated, highly politically informed white voters, but in an odd way, kind of, in the same way that, like Joe Biden's, been had a pretty underrated. Among Democrats, there is a bit of that with the blasio as well, so at some I don't actually pay all them close attention to New York politics. I find the kind of the blasio hate a little confused no one's ever really explained it to me in, like a cyst sink clear way, I mean you probably just came closest where it's just like he rubs people the wrong way. Yes, he received the wrong way, but I really do think we can't underestimate the Cuomo Dynamic. I mean. Essentially, people see the blasio as being a mask.

By Cuomo on a political power play sense and if they see it affecting their daily lives. Like I said and like Nate said, there's, there's a sense that he is not a canny paletta. Operator and that kind of ranges from for reasons that went totally understands he insists on like taking I'm go to the gym, Mark slow in park slope. I really believe this. I feel yes yeah. We should clarify that we should clarify for people who do not live in New York and do not know the geography that is an hour long car ride each way it is insane. Why does he do it to stay in touch with the Kim Again, you can make a case. He has implemented affair, of progressive policies in a big, complicated city. He was re elected twice. The the ratings are no longer great, but they're. Okay, I mean

kind of on the surface. He also started kind of a progressive I mean when he was elected in twenty thirteen. It was a big deal like I what I did not live in New York at the time and paid attention to that election closely because of the nature of his platform. So let's start to get into that more that's as we wrap this up. Grace who's, producing the show put in the notes like he was progressive kind of before it was cool which, which you'd think would be an advantage in this primary. But I know you're. Do you need to be popular in your home area of representation to to win? Well he's not popular it. He doesn't appear to be off the bat, a popular this home state which yeah ' I think it's fair that you you should. You should do that, but it isn't seem like he's getting much traction in early states either again, you know he's been up like a few times over the past year year and a half and and people have, I think, met him with the sort of like huh. Why are you doing this kind of

action. I do think it. I think some of the motivations for like he is what the 23rd person to enter the race. Why Is he doing it against reportedly the advice of many of his advisors? I think it goes to you know maybe he's bored being the mayor of New York. Maybe he's relatively young man, he and his two term, mayor of New York. What do you do after that Alexander wept for the no were no more worlds to conquer. Like is that the builder Blasi of six foot five syndrome- I don't know run for president to be governor Mark talked- could be non challenge Cuomo and lose by thirty points from well, but we're we're being pretty dismissive of his chances in that primary. I feel like compared to most people were being quite generous. Something that think we're discussing his trailblazing as being a progressive executive. If you do it,

Look if you do a blind resume test two. Mayor of New York elected on a multi racial constituency with some tangible, progressive accomplishments? I mean that's, not crazy, right, that's not the worst resume I might be in the top half of resumes. Give we have twenty two are even let you lost count now CAD, it's right. There candy to fall in that category. You know what kind of governor of a of a swing state like John Hickenlooper, you think, will be doing better or Jilla brand. You might think would be doing better. So it's not the only one where, like he seems where the credential the better the results but like, but I don't know I mean it's your right, Imagine a scenario but like okay, mention that Bernie, implodes and that like for some reason. His supporters, don't trust Warren because she's, a woman, that's not hard to imagine you know well, is the boss here, like a

good debate, or could you guys see him catching on? I mean he's running only wanna crowded primary before I guess how much of this does come back to then you know a ton of people were passing that poll, result from Quinnipiac that three slash four of New York City voters didn't think the blasio should run for president. Does all this dismissiveness come back to that that if you you're? If you're voters don't think you should do this, then what are you doing? No because adventure about that, like a lot of constituents of a lot of will running, don't want them to don't want them to run because they're like can you govern us and by the way like how many he just got real, not his two years left in his term, my mare, our mirror? And one of our senators is running for president, I mean that's probably not great. For my constituent service standpoint, you felt the dearth of

but I I feel, like you know, his honor is not really that different than other people who are probably fielding some anger calls from constituents saying like. Why are you doing this you're gonna win there twenty two other people in the field? Although I and I get and I'm betting, that the senators who are running for president are getting fewer of those calls, I would like these. It feels more natural. I would like the mayor and send our children to focus on important priorities for me, such as building a good poker room, somewhere in New York, it's, but then, if we have to transfer alright what yeah, let's let's, let's just room, no one past that date to wrap here. You were recently about the influx of like straight white men. Yes jumping to his face. I think we call that on the site a stay peed, and the blasio, and Bullock and Bennett fall in that in that category. Why do you think we're seeing that? I think it is like

a lot of male ego, I mean isn't that kind of obvious I'm not like. Usually someone who's all like yeah, it is intersectional or whatever, but like the fact that, like you have like literally the last, we don't count Wayne Messam because we think his campaigns not major right but but literally eleven it's in a row or eleven and twelve after you have this very diverse field are all straight white man. I think, there's a sense of like entitlement, because, honestly, like obviously there, except like Bernie and Biden are in that group or whatever, but a lot of the camp games like pretty darn fast and it's a little bit like I can just kind of show up here when I feel like it and I'm a straight white guy, and so therefore people must pay attention. Specifically. I think we talked about this. I'm sure all of these people were considering running for president for the past couple of years, but in maybe other environments they wouldn't have gotten in there are no. There's no reason not to run if you're, that person there's no

There aren't that many barriers to entry realistically to this primary in part, because not that embarrassing. If you lose 'cause, there's two twenty two other people are going to lose two ok. So, let's leave that there and we're going to move into pulling around abortion, how it's changing or how it's not changing. But first let me tell you that today's podcast is brought to you by zip recruiter hiring- is challenging, but there's one place you can go where hiring is simple, fast and smart, a place where growing businesses connect to qualified candidates that place is ziprecruiter dot com, slash five three eight, the number zip recruiter center job to over one hundred of the web's leading job boards and with their powerful matching, Nology, Ziprecruiter scans, thousands of resumes to find people with the right experience and actively invites them to apply to your job as applications come in Ziprecruiter analyzes each one and spotlights the top candidates

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Linda five ocean. Based on how effective the libraries are an if, strong correlations between their subjective, great alive reads and how much product they have? How many like how many people they drive to the yeah? How are we doing? well that just made me really nervous. So, if you're listening to us, it's a good data point Box of all dot com code, politics and ziprecruiter com, five hundred and thirty eight. The number is not the letters. Ok, as we mentioned at the top of the show, we've seen a number of abortion restrictions passed at the state level, including in Georgia, Ohio and Alabama, with Missouri in Louisiana, looking to sign similar legislation soon. So, let's start off kind of wide scale here in terms of just. Why is this thing: do polls show that a public opinion around abortion has changed in some way. No, I mean in fact the numbers have been remarkably

at least in the top line numbers overtime. What is the top on? So there's pulling that asks pro choice. Pro life right Pulling that ass up. Do you think abortion should be legal under any circumstances, mostly legal? Mostly legal or illegal. Under all circumstances, I mean what which was should we focus on? It's been interesting to look at the the trends and see how steady the number, how relatively steady the number for legal under certain circumstances, has been- and I think, you've seen in recent years, legal under any circumstances rise a bit. I think that legal, under certain circumstances, probably gets part of how a lot of Americans feel about a boy which is wanted to be legal, but are squeamish for lack of a better word with certain later

abortions. I to let me let me lay the pulling a bit here using. Using that scale would clear, just reference legal, only under certain circumstances is consistently been the kind of most popular choice. When Gallup has tested this, and it's been, can you know that's been consistent for for decades? It was at about. Fifty percent of people chose that in twenty eighteen. Next comes legal under any circumstances. That was twenty nine percent mostly recently and then, illegal in all circumstances, pulls worst. According to Gallup, that was eighteen percent in twenty eighteen, clear to your point that the top choice with the majority of bare majority, but but a majority is legal, but with some constraints on there. Yes, although we should say that legal under any circumstances had

been in some ways. I would see like taking away some support from legal under certain circumstances. I II, I think more people in the car, of abortion should be legal. I do think you see a little bit of movement towards people saying it should be legal under any circumstance and that's strong from legal under certain certain circumstances, but it's all on the sort of right, mostly legal. So I thought yes, it's on this, this the side of mostly legal, and I do think that that is interesting, especially because- and I would say perhaps this is happening because you are seeing conservatives get very e successful at tackling abortion sort of death by one thousand cuts yeah, and so I think you probably see a little bit of a reaction in the polling with people who were oh, I'm for abortion under certain certain circumstances, then they see sort of what they might perceive as attack

and perceive they are attacks on ROE V Wade and they might say, yikes right, so I'm going to become pro abortion under any circumstances. Yeah look or you see so, first of all with terms pro life and pro choice, if you have carefully read five hundred, and thirty is journalism at least since we kind of came if you ignore days now, just out on my own right. The days when we work with other news organizations like the New York Times or ABC News, you've noticed that we try to avoid using the terms pro choice and pro life where pause 'cause they're, not very specific. We know what they mean kind of in contacts, but like they're kind of like they're sort of loaded. Terms that are meant to like frame the issue certain way and there's sort of brands. And if you look at the brands that kind of compete, fairly evenly over, but people can be

I have to kind of where they perceive the bigger threats to be. If you start to hear noise are not noise, you start to hear claims that Democrats are sympathetic to the late term, abortion that might shift people in one direction. If you start to hear, because seems that, like ROE V Wade is under threat that might shift people in different direction. What it is clear by the way is that overturned love, you wade, would be unpopular, even people who, on the fence about abortion, and many people are mean that kind of plurality. Category of legal under some circumstances has been fairly persistent. But if overturn ROE V Wade. If you were to pass bills, that are as right wing as the Alabama bill. Then you can cause a backlash potentially. So, let's, let's come back to that backlash idea, but what Why is it that? So you know that Gallup Poll found sixty percent of Americans think first trimester abortion should be legal. Sixty four percent said they did not want Be overturned but yet

the same poll asked pro life pro choice. It splits basically perfectly evenly four thousand eight hundred and forty eight among the people who say they want first term abort. First trimester abortions supper questions, so they're asking a pool of people. Do you think? First trimester in should be legal, sixty percent say yes, do you want ROE overturned, sixty four percent say no right, but I'm that same group overall pro life, pro choice, they're divided more equally in there's not a majority on the on the pro choice side. I think you hear a lot of people say to you. When you talk about pro choice, pro life, a lot of people make a distinction, be in p, a n only pro life yeah and I'm using the the terms that people generally use think personally pro life. I would not want to get an abortion. I would not want whoever I'm with to get an abortion, but legally,

I am pro choice because I understand the reality of you know the United States and the world and that women have always sought to get abortions, and I want abortions to be safe. I think it's a really interesting. You often see catholic politicians who are Democrats taking this parsing Stan. Nancy Pelosi is someone who, I believe has identified herself as personally pro life, but you I mean she is an establishment Democrat through and through. She is pro choice in her political stamp, and I think that that's something that's become. I'm trying to think of the last Catholic democratic politician and the national level to be pro life and I believe it might have been Mario Cuomo. So it's an it's an interesting, but I do think, while that might not be a tenable position for

a lot of national Democratic Party figures, not there probably people in the state level for sure I do think it's It's a new wants position that I think a lot of people still have- or they might say, I'm personally against it, but I think it should be legal and the, and you might see those people limit themselves to well. I only think for trimester. Abortion should be legal or only medically necessary, second or third trimester abortions. Yeah and pro life side, I mean most people, I think, including of most people that call themselves pro life. I think they would support exceptions for for rape, incest, life of the mother and so, if people kind of here pro life and think ok that means that, like in these extreme cases allowed but like, but otherwise not right, they don't think of it necessarily as being like the Alabama version of it and with pro choice,

okay. That means that, like you, may personally object to it but like, but you want the choice to be available with some restrictions, though right that you can't do it like after x date, so the minute kind of people begin to kind of see the pro life and pro choice terms and more extreme terms and make shift in the other direction? I guess I mean like now. Just like I don't want it to seem like any of this is inconsistent or incoherent right. If you kind of ask the three way, question complete, rights to an abortion under any circumstances, no abort whatsoever or somewhere in between then a fairly large reality and often a majority in most polls are in that somewhere between category and so, if you try to like slice up that three way, into two ways. Instead, then it gets sensitive to like

question wording and kind of how people perceive what these different terms mean. First, a fact check. Mario Cuomo was legally also legally. I think pro choice, but pretty vocal about being personally a life, so so it's a bit so it's been awhile. I will say, though, like just to to talk more about why people are so ambivalent or so on some level Doesn't the numbers don't make sense? The Conversation around when does life begin, is so interesting and obviously the catholic conceit of the idea is that it begins basically right away right, sperm meets egg. That's when life begins, then I think you have all these sort of of

versions of well. When does the fetus become viable outside the womb, and is it not? Are there sort of almost sliding scales of humanists right, which is guess this is some sort of separate living being, but when does humanness equal or outweigh the mother right. You know, and I think that really interesting kind of philosophical discussion that so often top line political debate. Cannot handle because by necessity, people need to sort of shrink these used. To a postcard or placard in some ways right? You pro choice pro life right, but I think real people have these really complicated thought process is over.

Beginning of human life in pregnancy, and you know I think women in particular. It's is an incredibly personal. The help for a lot of people struggle not for everyone, but I think it's certainly something that people, it's not abstract for people who have looms. So it's an interesting. I think, and I think that the number sort of belie that, in their confusion, said you guys think that's, how would this debate and process will play out or will it play out, he wants yeah like so like here's an example. I am you know, Georgia which, which passed one of these quote, unquote heartbeat bells, which would ban abortions at six weeks during the debate on that the Atlanta Journal Constitution conducted a poll that showed forty. Nine percent of people opposed the bill and forty four percent approved of the bill. Again. This is a bill which affectively

outlaws abortions. Right many women don't even know they're pregnant at six right. That's a good! That's a good tidbit for male listeners. Here, right, yeah, yet in the same poll. Respondents were three to one against overturning roe, so in other words the opposition do overturning roe, far outpaced the opposition to this bill, which effectively overturned row right at not not literally, but in effect in in the state. So, in other words I think what you're seeing there is is, is partisan identities kicking and my team is pushing the spell for the bill. Will that be how this plays out, or is the Alabama thing as Nate was sort of thing, can take fringe enough and extreme enough in terms of not including exceptions for for rape and incest, life of the mother, that it does it does. It does include a life of the mother exemption but does not include rape or incest

the honest answer. Is probably some partisan push but the reason why I made that note for male listeners is part of me also wonders if people don't quite understand the mechanics of it and I'm not saying this to be condescending, but say you know some of those people who said yeah. I think this bill is fair, but I don't want to see row overturned might say woman's menstrual cycle is generally around four weeks, actually around twenty eight days, and so you know that's that's enough of a cushion for her too. Realize she's pregnant? She got a couple weeks. She grapples with the decision. She makes a decision right. Okay, like that, that's

seems like a reasonable time line to me. Yeah, I don't. I, I think that there might be some early, some some people with within those numbers who might say that seems fair and then it, but then you can opt into all the things that people continually bring up, which is a lot of women. Don't know they're they're pregnant by that point they might not realize that the missed period is a pregnancy, if they do. You know right away when they miss their period. Well, they might not have enough money together or time together to get the abortion, so I do think that some of the scene like you might not think that hard right when, when someone's asking you that survey question and think about the the logistics and the mechanics of what that six weeks actually means, let's get into like the wider political context of this, obviously were we're. Just came of an election that was labeled the year of the woman

and we're heading into an election for the for the presidency. How do you see this kind of this debate fitting in that I mean so all of the top line numbers on abortion have remained More for a long time, it's become much more partisan over time kind of in the 70s, there was almost no partisan split on views on abortion, obviously under Reagan under both of the bushes. The kind moral majority. Religious right, where you want to call it began to see abortion as a wedge issue I was in a credit. Groups have begun to see a pro choice. Stance as a wedge issue in both sides, use it a lot and I'll probably be hapless again. This year I mean I don't think either side is lacking for wedge issues. You know we did see like a lot of evangelicals kind of turn out for Trump in in big numbers, and I don't think you know, and we saw like lots of women turn out for Democrats and very

big numbers- and so I don't know politically, it's kind of like if the court actually take steps to overturn, ROE versus Wade before the next election or any point afterward. That's a giant story. Otherwise I think it's like you know. Maybe one of the more important issues to lots of people but you're in an in an environment where all these issues have been activated and people already have ten or twenty or thirty reasons to the way they do and it probably encourages kind of party line voting. I think the thing is that abortion as a wedge issue? To a lot of liberals? I don't see it feels retro, but I think that on the liberal schema, I'm things like income inequality. The idea of sort of the hauling the finance institutions, and then you know, the institutions is like really risen in prominence, not to say that

isn't still an important issue on the left, but I do think that it's kind of like for lack of the for a blunt phrase. Falling out of vogue a little bit worse for on the conservative side of things, it's really maintained its its prominence, and now, I think, with you've. You've had people on the left consistently saying. Look the the conservative right is really really smart about litigating this stuff. People need to be vigilant, and I just think it's it's almost. This Alabama bill honestly feels like an interesting groundswell on the left, because it, I don't think a lot of you got see that's right when, by the way we should save they, hello, isn't going to be enforced, not an enforceable law and it was written that way as a potential challenge to ROE to go through the court system. But I do think you saw a pretty interesting groundswell in the le

I wasn't sure up until this past week and exactly like whether or not abortion was going to be huge issue in the twenty twenty election. Personally, I didn't necessarily see it going there. Now, it still might not Kirsten Gilibrand, certainly hope, so I think you know there was an interesting shingle marker peace. In the times saying she, really going to hurt campaign has been sort of flagging. Might use this issue as a way to get a little bit more more support, but I didn't necessarily see abortion as being a a two thousand and twenty issue, perhaps naive on my part. The to me. There were so many things happening on the left. Besides this sort of kinda like old debate that we've been that we've been having in this country and there lots of new debates that are happening that seem to be kind of the you know catching the magpie I'd the populace. What's interesting is that the Supreme Court was one of these issues that you mentioned Claire, where it seemed to activate on the right more than people on the left right and I think after gors

and after Kavanaugh got there. I think you start started to see some people after, as you were saying, Sir, be like a. We got to get our together on on this issue. What's ironic, though, is that that Emily is what's behind a lot of this right and abortion activists, are looking around saying. Okay, we have, we think five justices on the Supreme Court who are against abortion. Let's try to let's try to go after row. Some of these laws are going after row in a in that sort of chip away at it way the Alabama law is going at it in a up end. The whole thing way and I think, as used, I think, you're right. The Alabama laws is unlikely to succeed, but they're chipping away? Laws might work better, but I guess part Part of what I would argue, maybe is that if the Alabama laws. What's at the center of the debate, then I do think maybe it it activates Democrats more than this issue has in the past, as opposed

Do you know? I don't think we solve these. You Republicans have been trying to chip away at this and successfully chipping away at abortion access for years, and it hasn't done all that much to activate Democrats. I don't think I think that's in part, perhaps because there is this sort of interesting, As you see in the numbers conflict the people yeah. Do you have you do see. So, in contrast to gay marriage, where you see a very, very big generational let's you, don't see that as much on on abortion. Early depends on how you phrase the question. Millennials are are slightly more pro abortion rights or pro choice. If you want to use that term not a large spread, especially given that males are more liberal in general. It might be that, can for how liberally you are that age. That

other voters who remember kind of rover, suede are are more inclined to defend abortion rights, but yeah it is complicated. You know, I think I think you see more people who split their opinions now on abortion burst gay' marriage So I think you can't just kind of lump it into like oh generic kind of cultural issue. I think it has its own, has its own trajectory and the trajectory is actually kind of potentially very much up in the air given kind of all the threads in american politics and by the way you know, we can also discount the possibility of a Supreme court justice. Die or retire before the next election. They have lifetime offices. Something is not a good idea, then we need to consider the possibility that happened coinciding with the next election. Ok let's leave that there and move on to the non presidential races of twenty twenty, the House and the Senate. But before we do that, let me tell you that this episode is brought to you by quit

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for free at G e t q. U I p dot com, slash five, three, eight okay, we spend a lot of time on the show discussing the twenty twenty race for president, but we felt like it was time to check in on the other big battles taking place that year, namely the Senate and the house. So twenty Republicans will be defending twenty two seats in the Senate to the Democrats, twelve but Democrats hope to fly Senate might be more of an uphill battle than those numbers suggest neat. What do Democrats need in order to take back the Senate and how likely do you think it is that don't get it. If they were to win the presidency, then they would need a net of three seats to get a five thousand and fifty cent it. The net part is important because democrats are defending some of their own seats, including Doug Jones. Seat in Alabama, where Doug Jones won Alabama, because he had an opponent- Roy Moore, who was accused of

praying on young girls which, by the standards of a really republican state, was a bridge too far. And Joe the only one by a point or something, and even then it was only in a really a really blue overall environment, as we would see later on that year that cycle twenty two was a good year for Democrats. So the question is: do they need, three or four or couldn't win the present then potentially five and I don't know you can definitely point enough races where they have a shot. Looking at my chart right here, that would include probably the most obvious cases are Colorado where Cory Gardner is, as probably been to pro trump for that too many issues. The states become more blue Arizona where Sally, was appointed. The replacement for John Mccain Motherless Kyle served in an interim basis. And she lost last year to Christian Cinema. You'll, probably vigorous democratic candidate there for the first two they're kind of singing

route not main mark. Well, isn't he the Arizona, the demo, ok, running Kelly. Uh. So you have a competitive Senate primary actually in Arizona and Colorado. Hickenlooper is not running there. Plenty of Democrats coming through the woodwork in Colorado and maybe well Well, he can look for yeah yeah, or I have a plan b, you maybe Michael Ben Twenty will run for the other Senate seat. For no particular reason. So main Susan Collins is approval. Ratings are still pretty decent depends, for you look at they've taken a hit from where they were very very strong before, but she Obviously, one of the people that you think would would be among the more likely targets North Carolina, Tellus and by a narrow margin over Kay Hagan six years ago, North Carolina has become a state that has often been kind of 80s for Democrats, but sometimes as we're hoping to learn with Florida, for example or Pennsylvania.

Sorry, pencil Florida, although Bill being Bill Nelson in Florida, sometimes let's see this is actually go your way once in awhile, Johnny arts too. As someone who is seen as a very capable politician group, Things were like a little bit more mediocre than I thought intuitively, based on her kind of strong national profile, so see some a strong year. Democrats could be any you longer shots Georgia, Alaska, Texas, Mississippi where Cindy Hyde Smith is a very weak incumbent. So you know you know yeah Lindsey, Graham down there in South Carolina now, where now worry Mitch, Mcconnell in Kentucky The news is very unpopular among those who is, you know, which are you watching a which do you feel like are going to be the most ripe for for democratic do you also think Colorado and Arizona are you do just because the environments in the states it's the boring answer? Also just we mentioned Mark Kelly, is running again- is likely going to

and against Mcsally he is the astronaut husband of Gabby Giffords so he's somewhat, you know, that's a family with obviously a strong profile. I think a lot of sort of. Lot of emotional resonance, I think that's a really good candidate for Democrats. That's a really interesting candidate and then yeah, I think collar. I don't I mean I don't know who's gonna in Colorado, but I do think you know, I don't know the contours of what what kind of Democrat will run but yeah. It just seems like that. State is pretty right. I mean I'll, also be watching Alabama. I you know just because I I I profile Doug Jones last year in part to to kind of talk about like what he had to do as the first democratic, senator from Alabama in a long long time, the through the years he had until had until reelection to sort of win again think it's obviously going to be really difficult proposition. You see a lot of Republicans who are sort of you know.

Champing at the bit to to run against him. Maybe having, I think you know in some ways is best. Like you know, the best kind of person to have on the the presidential ballot is someone who could really turn out the democratic constituency in Alabama. He saw a lot of support from black areas of the state. So you know maybe minority or who knows, maybe Joe Biden as we said, you know wrong among black voters. Maybe that'll do it, so you that's a race that I just think it's fascinating. For its his Oracle implications and just sort of the the screw of Alabama republican politics in part, because that state hasn't seen a lot of challenges to the republican hierarchy, because such a strong. Partisan, leaning state? Are there other democratic, held Senate seats that you think they should be worried about New Mexico's open, see race, so those can always be a bit unpredictable.

Chile, you know New Hampshire. Has a race will look for like this right. If you had a really good republican environment, then all these kind of states we have purple suit with democratic and come it become vulnerable. So that's like Michigan Minnesota, New Hampshire, right yeah. Maybe new Mexico. Where have retirement open seat? You know, I think it's it's likely scenario between having a good democratic, your a year- and I mean look in some still as a climactic. I don't think there is enough opportunities for Democrats to win the Senate in a new a year just by like, even though they have more opportunities the GOP does in a neutral year? Well, you don't have a way to hear back, you probably lose Doug Jones's seat, and then you have to win four you know if you win the presidency. If you win the presidency, five. Otherwise, right, if you have a good day if you exercise in silver bullet points, my

calamine that last week, shameless plug trying to evaluate the effective, Click on fire and the strength of the candidate if you're in That was as strong as it was last year for Democrat meaning about seven hundred or eight points more left of center, which there's no particular I think we'll have but could happen if you go into recession, for example, or Trump gets approval, a the thirties, or something right that they probably have enough probably will find a way to eke out or wins ish, and then maybe you can afford to lose Doug Jones, or maybe he wins anyway. He did win again in that blue environment the first time, but not a slam, Dunk I mean again. We saw these races can be we saw Democrats will lose a race in Florida that kind of lined paper they shouldn't have lost and then come, but no matter how strong and Hanni Rick Scott was in a year is blue,

when a team was you're not supposed to lose that race in an I Florida kind us about some of these, like Caesar rated Solid, are right. Now, let's just play a hypothetical, I mean. What if okay Tennessee is an open seat means are what if someone like Phil Bredesen like the former democratic governor, Democratic Tennessee, who ran against Marsha Blackburn last last year, what if he says I'm going to do it again, I you know you must buy a lot, though that's the thing is: if he was going to do it, he would have done it in twenty eighteen with the time to do it right guys. John Cornyn is running in Texas could someone else beside? federal Roark Turn Texas, blue What is the thing that, but honestly, I'm a conversation about what are the wildcards. I mean I wrote a Senate Wildcards piece before which turned which turned out pressure depression, and so what I'm saying is what

the? What are the wildcards here summit recruitment, I met some of my drop out when I die, you know, but but I don't think it's a court like I asked I asked the Texas turning blue question slightly facetious, but given that there is some sort of historical president, maybe that's a wild card, I don't know I'm just I'm just sort of spit balling yeah, you, you have open republican seats and Kansas, Tennessee and Wyoming of the three Kansas is a tiny bit interesting You did have Democrats perform well in Kansas last year they won the governorship in. I believe two house seats there. I have a good wild card, keep going mate. Sorry, I know Montana but look a lot of these are cases where you would need both, the blue year, and a candidate, and even then it be enough. Okay, Ben Sasse gets primary in Nebraska buy super super conservative person.

Very moderate Democrat runs: that's a wild card, okay, but I feel like, if you guys, are telling me that, in order to even have a chance at taking the Senate Democrats need a twenty. Teen level political environment, entry, its approval rating to be in the 30s. Then that's uh, all tall order right wildcards. Are nobody one right now, two right, so it's not like radical like barely mean, if you look at. If you look at your Gallup polls right now, they're, not the most high quality, pulls a lot of online polls. Low levels are fine sunny to disparage, but like it's not like the robust mix you have later on the cycle, they should Democrats up like four or five points on average, having won the popular vote by eight and a half a point, six almost nine last year. So it is down from where it was, and you know with that be enough, That is actually the middle ground. Where like have like a really strong set of candidates

well, but I don't know you know one thing people talk about like oh well, well, Beth, Owen. Is the Abrams. They could really help in those states right one Stacey Abrams were not people that were regarded as particularly strong candidates ahead of time. You know I thought Bedell was, I was going to say kind of a joke, but not really because, like a member of Congress, give up their seat to run is something that's a decently qualified candidate or Stacy Abrams kind of you know, running democratic delegation believe the State House and George is a decent credentials put on. But no one would have thought that they were especially strong cancer kind of prove their mettle overtime, and so I don't know. I find like the recruitment story, a little bit overdone in part, because, like for a lot of reasons. One reason being that, like Claire skeptical yeah, I am ok, so in silver bullet points right.

What chance Claire. Have you not read silver bullet point? What is wrong with you? You know what what should I've skimmed it? What chance does Steve Bullock actually have to win his Senate race right. If Steve Bullet came to me- and I was being incentivized, accurate not to flatter him I would probably say I think you have the neighborhood of a twenty percent chance of winning that seat I mean the Republican Danes is running again, if not a little bit higher, but you know give a one in five shot. If you do that, it would be really helpful. The Democrats by no one else, knowing that seat but four to five times a loser going to bed, listen right, people say well, you know it turns out that blah blah blah, maybe wasn't as good as he thought. You know. Do you I want that or not I don't know I mean what happens. Is that when you have sign of a really big wave year, then people- through it I'll join the party. This is fine and their chances go up.

Right and so and so and by the way we are still pretty early, it's May 20th, two and nineteen the action is November. Third, by the way, thank God it's the third. It's like early this year it's a within a range of like five days. It can be. I met MIKE Everyday matters Ma'Am one more day of sandy okay well Monday. As of taxation and enjoyment between the election and Christmas to add, having with us end this podcast limit and then what's from Calcutta on this, It's on this talking about the house, which I feel like a lot of people are talking about about? Do Republicans have a chance to win back the house in twenty twenty yeah. Obviously much of a chance According to prediction markets, I don't care about.

Markets. I want to know what you think: Nate Silver. I think, they have around a one in three chance of winning the house back, which is about a prediction markets. Thank well Claire, who am I to contradict production? markets and by the way, silver, ok by the way have Australia segment can we have in Australia absolutely podcast this week. We did all we could do a live show in Australia. I would highly will not go. I would not go where absolutely not what you got. Australia are mandated to stay there at least two weeks, because it's such a pain in the asses to get there. But it's nice and you know what I have a lot of other places. I want to go before I go to Australia in any event, you select one. On the one hand, on the one hand, it's pretty good it's higher than I thought you'd say: what do you think will look? One in five contradict need. No, this one. Ok! So it's like! Let me know seriously. Let me put it this way when I was trying to prep for this. You know

I've been googling and reading about Democrats, chances of winning the Senate, and that was good I'm trying to read about republican chances of winning the house, and there is far are far less about the latter than about the phone. So here's the basic argument, the incumbent doesn't matter very much anymore. That's one reason why Democrats were able to win so many each last year, even though a lot of seats are gerrymandered or there's a lot of partisan sorting. The flip side to that is that if you were an elected first term incumbent, in a eight or d nine year and all the a we flip back it's a neutral year or even a d plus three year right then you're incumbency advantage might not be enough to overcome, That and Democrats did kind of explore in part because they raise so much money. They went pretty deep in exploring the escape and they kind of won most of the seats they could have one there, only some low hanging fruit in Texas,

if you want to go more granular, then it's probably early. Do that. I think Democrats would say boy. We have four or five seats in Texas that we wish we had contested more. In twenty eighteen that were closer than we thought they would be. There are a bunch of cases where state courts have ruled GOP, gerrymandered maps, Illegal and so you'll see. Rule on those there, some upside to Democrats in states like Ohio and Michigan. If those maps are thrown out potentially but you know you also had last time around like a lot of GOP incumbents that were caught, kind of sleeping and napping I'm really, I feel like that way. Heads up if they don't five hundred and thirty eight dot com, they would have right, but they were listening to, but but your general overall point is that Democrats who want to now forty seats in twenty eighteen went pretty deep into republican territory, and so now they have to defend that. Now we have to

enter an environment that probably won't be as good Claire when speaking to kind of what the republican strategy would be to try to take back the house. The Nrcc Chairman Representative, Tom Emmer of Minnesota, said quote freedom or socialism. That's the choice in twenty twenty. Do you feel, like that'll, be an effective kind of messaging strategy? some ways if like Sanders, gets the nation. Yes, I think you know, because it that'll be kind of on the brain right yeah, I'm guessing that they're going to try to use a c s, sort of that kind of Boogie man. You know the woman buggy woman good for name for like a riot girl band book. You will give it could work. I mean it, you know it's. You know the whole like it's a free country

I think it could be that we could see how that Expressionism Houston. I you know what I publicans it's, because it's a free country. Can I make an observation. I don't know I've been thinking about this lately, but, like I used to use that phrase all the time when I was younger right like that, would be like a report that you have some it's a free country. Can I sit here? It's a free country. Can I use your pencil? It's a free country sounds obnoxious. I know but like we said it all the time when we were kids is that still a thing I think so I think people say this last time. You said that I think I made these. I think, maybe you and I have just matured and we're not so sort of passive aggressive anymore, but made accused me of being passive aggressive this morning you I know you are okay, that's even worse! I really wasn't cut this. No. Can I, we ask your audience:

I'll, be I'll breed. Ok, I would be curious. If I'm do I come off as passive aggressive on the show. I would not want that people are nice and aren't going to say that I would never want it want you guys to feel I just come off as aggressive yeah, I think, do red blooded, Americans aggressive the, but let me go back I actually answer, which is, I kind of think it depends on who am, is the democratic nominee, because it could be like a kind of an effective yeah. I like it, especially if some of these look- let's not for some of the candidates have said, I want to change the electoral college like I want. You know, I want to read you girl these things. A lot of institute channel change that I think a lot of Americans are kind of uncomfortable with

I'm not sure if the AOC bogeyman, Boogie woman will be sort of stale by then uhm, so it remains to be seen. But you know Republican didn't really get to try it out. There Bernie Sanders socialist attack in twenty sixteen, so maybe it does work. Let's also remember a lot of places where Democrats gain ground in twenty eighteen, we're not in presidential swing states, so they want a lot of seats in California in New York, New Jersey. What a couple of in Texas and and could win more none of those are, except maybe Texas, likely be competitive at the presidential level and so like so, You do like a little bit of an incongruity between like where my I at, really strong in terms of the electoral College versus versus where, where they helped Democrats running for the house, Let's end just on that, we only have a couple minutes here. How much does the Democrats ability to win the Senate or the Republicans ability to win the house depend on who nominate? Who Democrats

in twenty twenty. Is there a lot of variation there or is it like kind of a marginal effect, either way. I mean that kind of gets in a much broader question of like how much does the President add a matter, but a lot right, 'cause, it is straight. Ticket voting, has increased as much less split ticket voting. Wouldn't you expect to have a big effect Claire said yes, but I want it yeah I mean this gets into the e word like a electability. I mean, like I know, but you know, maybe people actually say. Okay, I don't like. I think, Bernie it is too far left but I'll make a distinction here and vote for my moderate seeming. First, term congresswoman. I don't know the marginal effect between like who would vote for Biden, but not for Bernie or versa, that's already somewhat marginal right, and so it's kind of like comparing a marginal other again, what if that became, though, like a presidential like a high level argument of the present,

Canada I'll bring the Senate with me, yeah like what, if you just like we were trying to. I don't know when over like invalid people or something that you were, you were just that's like a it's like a valid well some of that. I remember some of that being used against Trump in twenty. Sixteen Oh, he would decimate us down ballot by the Republicans. Okay, let's leave it there. Thank you Nate. Thank you MIKE. Thank you Claire seems like a good job at the hosting. Well, shenanigans, I would say It was my pleasure, but I didn't really enjoy it. So sweating bullets, My name is Michael Cohen. Grace Lynch and Lunch Chau are in the control room, special room to them for helping make up for up absence. Galen come back soon, you can get in touch by emailing us at podcast, at five hundred and thirty eight com or Nate silver at five hundred and thirty, you can also

course treated us with questions or comments. If you're a fan of the show, leave us a rating or a review in the apple podcast or or tell I'm about us. Thanks for listening and we'll see you soon,