Me did you have a lot of friends in college. I am a normal and friends of thank yous in a handle. Were you what you were up to you, what you were in a band yeah yeah boom boom? This is my paper. Can we Is I never recording a boom boom? How long is this, for I think he played we played Amy's party, we played Amy's part to Amys Party. We played the doorman through the coffee shop, so three gigs, hello and welcome to the five hundred and thirty eight politics podcast, my name is Galen Druke Happy New Year and happy. To the twenty twenty presidential campaign. I hope everyone enjoyed the holidays because it looks like there isn't going to be any down time before the contest to be the twenty twenty democratic nominee gets underway. As everyone already knows. By now, Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts became the most prominent candidate too, and

which are exploratory committee last Monday and other future camp, are getting ready to do the same. I think we have an announcement coming from who Leon Castro on Saturday we're going to spend much of our time today, looking at warrens case for being the nominee and here with me today, at our editor in Chief Nate Silver, hitting a gala happy New year happy new year. How was your new year was in LOS Angeles, which is quite wonderful study, I think actually, at New Yorkers under eight, that's so nice of you to say, yeah, ok, Claire scene, politics writer happy new year. Is it going to happy new year? That's good and MIKE managing editor? How are you, how is your new year wonderful, awesome and also the government has now been partially shut down for sixteen days, a tie for the second longest government shutdown, since one thousand nine hundred and eighty. If it goes another week, will be the longest shutdown, so we'll talk about what the public things and how the parties are positioning themselves

before we get into any of that. I want to say thank you. First of all, thank you Jody for is doing this podcast for the past three years and thank you to everyone at this table for welcoming me as your new host little presumptuous, yeah, we're going to use you so much through one episode purse. I can drink a lot. Don't worry! Listeners may not know this, but I've been around so we launched this podcast, although usually on the other side of the studio wall. So I'm excited to- and you guys in here and I'm looking forward to covering the twenty twenty campaign with you all now, Tony's in there all alone. I know hey Tony Tony: are you lonely turn the lights off anyway? I will also still be producing this podcast. So if you have any ideas or complaints or otherwise listeners, you can still send them. My way is that a conflict of interest to host an edit, the podcast, all right yeah,

I get to make myself sound, really smart, I mean I would host an edit, the slack chats. We do online and I would absolutely make myself seem smarter than I was so you should do that. The problem is, I don't, have a microphone at my desk, so I can't like add in any smart quips. After the fact you could just I could just take out all the dumb stuff. I exactly don't worry. I do that for you too, though, anyway, alright, with let's talk about Elizabeth Warren's presidential bid Nate, you said in a recent podcast that you solution for two thousand and nineteen was to remain. Open minded about the possibilities for how someone could win the democratic primary, and in that vein, as each candidate steps forward we're going to discuss the theory for how they can win the nomination,

also how they can lose it. So we will call this segment the theory of the case and to kick things off neat. What is the theory behind Warren winning the twenty twenty eight democratic nomination? I mean. First of all, she is traditionally well. Credentialed has been a center now for what I guess, one term plus right and left it twice. She formerly had the complexion for Protection Bureau. What's the acronym c f never did Cfpb. She was her idea. She originated was the of the cfpb, but This is someone who has carefully put themselves or is kind of fairly well positioned for a democratic party. It's moving overall to the left, but I think she kind of couches it in rhetoric. That's but more quote unquote: mainstream than Bernie Sanders would, for example, right she's a member in good standing of the Democratic Party which he is not so the basic but you're making with Warren is

she is someone who represents kind of here. The party is at ideologically. She is not young but younger than some of the old sectarian dudes that are running still older, still older. How sixty nine will be seventy in June? She more feeling you might think on social media. I was doing some research this week for an article running in like looking at different Instagram, twitter and Google search follower accounts and, like she actually has a strong social media presence. You can be kind of funny and sarcastic is a bit on the stump than you might think. So you know all of that sounds sounds pretty good. The issue is that if you look at the polling she's a candidate who has high recognition and is not the first choice of very many democrats off often pull at what percent or ten percent, even though eighty percent of Democrats know who she is, that's not very good question whether you know whether that's going to survive her announcement will get a boost potentially and will get

a bit more into that, but Mika Anne Claire, you were great. Do you think she's ideologically well, positioned yeah right so that she is traditionally well credentialed and she has been a senator for a term in very small change, but she actually got into ticks prelate if Lee recently in the last decade. So she was active during these bankruptcy bills that, because it came up during you know the last fifteen or twenty years in Washington, but in two Nate she sort of formally became a little bit part of the congressional stre. She served on a oversight committee for TARP the troubled asset relief program following the financial crisis, so she actually a relative newcomer to politics in a way. She is a Harvard professor, but she has a pretty. You know, planes the background, so in a lot of ways she also has pretty close ties to the american class- and I think it was interesting that her announcements

go, which was certainly overshadowed by her decision to take a test to prove, native american Heritage she also had her brothers on who are republicans, and she talked a lot about how you know she's very familiar with there's a lot of family who are on the more conservative end of the spectrum, and I thought that was an interesting way to position herself so well. She is very much of Washington now and is was from a few years. Pre sanders. The de facto did the progressive wing of the Democratic Party she's If we need to Washington, did you know that she was registered as a Republican into her 40s yeah? I just disk yeah. I mean that aside. I do think on paper at least she is a better and more authentic populist messenger than sander. Now like right there. What is authentic, she has been sort of living and breathing these issues for years and years now. Sanders has too, but I think a lot of the policy proposals from Sanders in twenty

theme, were sort of like an inch keep in a mile wide right now I say paper very purposefully there, because I wouldn't have predicted that Sanders message would have would have resonated so well, so who is what will happen, but I just think that Warren was hitting these issues before Sanders right. Well, I think someone put it to me well, to be fair to Sanders. He's been doing this for a long time. I think I think, even before he became a thing, is yeah, but but what someone said to me about the two of them, which I think is really right is Warren is recognized. As a walk and Sanders is recognized as a folk hero, and I think that better way to say that I was trying to say no, but I totally what you mean, but I think a lot of politics is romanticism, and that sort of folk hero isn't so in some ways it makes sense that standard kind of caught fire. Where is Warren? I mean it did a little bit of her sort of like suburban folk hero moment where she did the talking about

you know Mitt Romney, saying, like you do build this on your own. If people remember there's this sort of shoes in the living room- and she was talking about people get rich part because of helping the government, their trucks gone codes like Papa blah, you know all this stuff, and so she small viral moments, but she you know- and she did have a little bit of the- I guess folk hero thing, I can say you know the outsider, even though she's a Harvard professor becomes you but she has always been cloaked in a very odd Michael opening. She was, she was a bankruptcy act, features sort of four months bankruptcy expert and that's a little different than spending decades, a sanderstead as a politician of of a far left politician, but a politician all the same. It seems like the most obvious comparison and within the potential field of candidates is Bernie Sanders. So let's take that and try to compare them ideologically and then also in terms of who their voters are. Are they this

aim ideologically. Are they competing over the same voters? You could, I guess, make a distinction that Bernie Sanders is from the last and that Elizabeth Warren is a liberal liberal. You know that would mean she says: yeah capitalism is okay. If there's, then we have to regulate capitalism, a lot maybe redistribute wealth, where's, Bernie Sanders would say. The whole apple needs to be turned over and upset, and so the fact that she is a member of the democratic Party- and he is not- I mean it kind of seems superficial, but if you kind of because they are obviously in a superficial, not superficial sense, pretty similar if you strip out and say if you Bernie Sanders and subtract Elizabeth Warren, then what are you left with right and you the fact that he believes in more radical change that he does not really but democratic Party necessarily is the institution to have that change. Maybe we can kind of have a hostel some

we'll take over of the party and you get in some other stuff too. You know I mean it's a little bit more kind of a crusty. Your, I guess you would say style more combative. I guess you would say you know, I think it's not okay and is mark what? If it's not it's, not unfair. For us talk about the fact. If you look at the small subgroup of people who, like sanders but not worn, I think we're all to ask. Are there is related to gender there, because look at the various divisions in the Democratic party. We're going have another article this again soon about three slash: five of democratic part, voters overall are going to be women in the primary, maybe fifty five percent, fifty five percent, sixty percent, but the majority, if you look at the LE people who are members of the DSA, for example, or Bernie supporters. Whatever else that's a mostly male group, and so to have a woman who is running on the left, might have different dynamics, potentially also, maybe better crossover right. The fact that have a woman is probably an event with most democratic groups, but maybe not on the left per se. So

my basic take away is that Warren it has a high ceiling and a lower floor then Sanders and hire someone, because I think you can bridge, constituencies within the party more effectively than he could. I don't want to completely- everything in politics down to stylistic things, but what I will as I think, if you look at Warren and Sanders goals which You know, Bernie Sanders articulates as democratic socialism and Elizabeth Warren articulates as progressive being a progressive Democrat, the essential have the same goals and she She is a lot about you, she's she's introduced this response. Capitalism act wanting to have greater responsibility for corporate boards all the stuff. They kind of have the same end goal. We want a much more regulated market. We need more controls on the free market, but Warren Couches hers in a way that I think most Americans on the left couch their belief in more

regulated capitalism, which is I'm a capitalist, but right because it's it's this for people of her generation, particular no longer younger Democrats, now feel more favorably toward socialism than they do towards capitalism, but she cow. Is it in generational terms, where standards is a radical for his age, cohort in saying DSA down man, I kind of thing burn the system down. Some of it also, I think I'm from Elizabeth Warren spent much of her life in a certain part country. That's much more conservative sander was in the north. Stand in New England for most of his time, and so I think you can also talk about the geography of political bubbles, but I think fundamentally, they kind of have the same goals. Not Sanders does believe in an up people of the Democratic Party itself, and that has been, I think his biggest innovation is saying. We kinda need to scorch the earth between the establishment and you know the up and coming if they both get in, they are gonna, be competing for at least some of the same voters that you know

I think the way Nate described it as Warren. Having tire stealing, perhaps, but also a lower floor seems right. Do you know there was this New Hampshire Poll by Suffolk University that tested the field twice right once with Warren and wants without Warren and say: we've got twenty five percent of the vote without Warren. That support was cut in half with Warren and she got twenty six percent of so. Something's gotta give their. I think if they both get in you're, going see her in a see them. Do they divide the progressive part of the party and then make it easier for But the thing is there's so many candidates. Anyway, you can say that all kinds of people are going to be dividing the middle here's say is I'm not going to go in season yet because we have a whole segment devoted to that, but let's just take a look at if we're talking about sort of the light party decides stuff. That happens. Let's look at who within sort of like democratic political professionals who, they choosing at Sanders. Iowa director from twenty sixteen

was hired by Warren. You know, that's a big, that's a big statement. Now it's not something the voters. But it is something that I think the people who have influenced these campaigns, and you know if, if isn't going to get. Let's say the Creme de la Creme of the people who are on his campaign that might be a he is facing some allegations that culture his campaign was a bit hostile to women or didn't so sexual harassment allegations that Ducktales with the public face of what we like to call Bernie Bros. You know so that the percolating sexism bed that did Devoe of the you know in the Bernie versus Hillary Milieu. So I think, there's also some stuff going on in this in double primary, where people who we'll you'll never know their names, probably, but our pardon and people sort of you know, and so it's going to that campaign. That's interesting what did they see? The problems were with Sanders versus Warren. No, I think that gets at an important difference.

In. Let's imagine that the primary comes down to Warren Verse Sanders, who put someone like TIM Kaine endorse or who would someone who has pretty of who would Cory Booker indoors, pretty obvious to yeah. So I think, I think, you know Warren, has all the kind of progressive bona fides that Sanders does can also, I think, win over the kind of party establishment chunk of the party yeah for sure, and I think it also sounds like what Claire was things may be. Part of warrants path to the nomination is Sanders floundering and not really taking off yeah be a part of her swelling of the hands is already flying is and what it yeah I mean, and again we can get. We can get to as part of the conversation, but why is sanders like campaign wide allegations of sexual harassment? I mean I think it is being covered as like a x but is also like that's a big thing right like that's a if we think the fact that the resistance has been headed by you know

Age. Women, yeah right, like that's, that's a problem. The fact that she ran early I mean all it should Beto O'Rourke is running right, but you know the fact she officially declared and is now building a shell of a campaign now or the shell she's, hiring quite well regarded and competent operatives. I mean it's important because she is not as big a name is Sanders, so she has to move first and try to preempt him from running or gaining traction right, but you think you know. One thing I think we have learned is that you know SAM. It's pulling, isn't that great either. I think we have learned that, like the Sanders, can you in twenty sixteen consistent, partly left, but also of various other groups who just were not into Hillary, especially younger and younger voters, might say you know what

Kamala, Harris or Beto, O'Rourke or Warren or or whomever else, and it really wasn't about the leftist policy burning. Just cuz, you were new and different than you actually spoke to college students and didn't speak over them right and now, I'm taking a wide lens and looking at a lot of people and also by the way, the fact that you are this like super old white dude, because younger democrats are very mixed racially now, that's also potentially a a problem. Yeah I mean this is just one last general com about the twenty twenty which is like need said like in twenty in twenty six teen. It was Clinton voters, even if I'm excited about her said she's more competent. She has a better idea of how you're going to take the reins The past couple of years, I think, you've seen a lot of Clinton. Voters almost turn into retroactive Sanders backers in this way. They sort of said well, something was wrong. Maybe we did need this system change and I'm kind

curious how that I don't think all of them feel that way, but I do think some of them do like feel regret about the way the Democrats handled the primary, sort of wonder how that will surface itself in the way that that Democrats think about what primary care that they choose. Ok. So to sum up the theory of Elizabeth Warren's case, it is progressives, plus party establishment fetters. You guys are great what I am to my article running this week. I think. Actually, orange problem might be. How compelling is she to a non white democrats? She's a very, very white state, and if people do I litigate the dna test thing I mean there were a lot of native. It can Democrats, who were very displeased with handle that it was awkward, shall we say, foray into issues of racial identity and whatever else writes the fact that Bernie was able to build that constituency in a field of two can

makes you wonder if Warren could either being in a very white state and so forth, but yeah it would be kind of uniting the different, more whiter groups in the This will make more sense when you see are kind of article this week, but she I mean she has a path. The thing to remember is that by default you know if there are fifteen, it's fourteen, then we're going to lose. So you can always look smart by picking apart the reasons open, and we are to do that- we're going to do that right now, the whole segment. After sure, I tell you guys that today's podcast is brought to you by Casper Mattress with the weather colder. The struggle to get out of bed in the morning is real and Casper Mattress makes it so tempting to hide under the covers and stay cozy. It's it's down. The most comfortable mattress around switching to Casper is a no brainer. It's a high quality mattress at an affordable price or ships right to your door for free in a box. So small, you won't know how they possibly did it, though even pick it up for you. If you don't like it and refund you everything,

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the phone, why was with Warren, won't be the democratic nominee? Well Galen. You know. I have been thinking about this for a couple days, since, whenever we said we were going to talk about warns an ounce and the theory of the case why she will lose is beak she's, a woman, and I have a couple bull points that I want to go through, and I haven't about this a lot because it's not just I mean so, let's start with like point a which is who wouldn't vote for Elizabeth Warren, because she's a woman well men, but also women, because we do in a patriarchal society. If you don't believe that then turn off you podcast, because he will not like the rest of this, but to women, and that boils down to um. Why do men and women dislike women or just like women in power, now have several theory, one of which is like you know. Women are physically weaker than men, and so in order

survive for eons have had, you know had to sort of assert selves in different ways, but it remains a mystery to me why some men hate women, because you know everyone has a mother, then we get to how we cover her. In the media, and I also mean we as five hundred and thirty eight, because I think we can improve too. I really like the fine art article in the Atlantic that said Okay Warren has these increasing negative favor abilities and that's a valid thing that we should talk about. Why she's on pop? But we're not talking about the centrality of sexism and, I think, really true, and I almost feel idiotic that it took me reading this piece to be like yeah. Why is not like one of the first things that we say in pieces? I am to call us out here and say that in our Warren theory of the case, we do mention the article article yeah. We do men

sexism, but it comes literally at the very bottom of the peace, and I think that should be inverted in a lot of ways because it's coming from this in I don't just mean us. I mean media in general, it's coming from this place where we assume neutrality to be a male perspective. So we don't talk about sex with a male candidate because he's a man and so a woman get slotted into that right, like she's a woman candidate, but we're not going to talk about her gender, but we should because it's a it's a per so since you know society wide thing, it's and it's part of this, the assumption that the rules are, and by men- or you know, I could have written this war in theory of the case and it could have been edited the same way. I'm just. I do think that political journalism has a male perspective and it's almost like I mean this is a stupid comparison. I was recently looking up what health savings accounts cover. Do you know they don't cover tampons the cup. They literally don't cover a thing to stop bleeding

but they cover like contact solution and to me that was just like. Oh, a guy wrote the rules for this, and kind of feel that same way about the way we do these, like newsy, Michaels, because there are plenty of essays about sexism, but, like the news articles, I think binary right, that we should be much more like top heavy. Smart about like this sort of squishy societal things that go into covering gender, so that's my kind of like setting the table thing. I totally agree that the the binder piece was, I thought of really good in like really clear He ran and just to clarify for listeners. The article that were referring to from Peter Brian are is called there's a reason. Many voters have negative use of Warren, but the price won't tell you why if there this issue with Warren, where you get her numbers and they are underwhelming. You know her favorable numbers, her reelection numbers in twenty eighteen, but as Beinart says, then you have to do the work of being like ok. Why is that

who was a mixed, meanies yeah. Yes, I mean it had this great article. The headline was like: I don't hate when candidates, I just hated Hillary and coincidently, I'm starting to hate Elizabeth Warren and to me that what what's great about that is, I do think it captures look that there are like sex straight up success right, but I think that captures a lot. What we saw with Clinton and a lot of what we are already seeing with war in which is it's more like passive, somewhat unconscious, I'm repeating something Claire said the other day, but it was like she's just kind of off pudding, or I don't like the way she speaks or 'cause. There's not like first one is an unpopular. It's just like her favorable numbers aren't quite as good as some of these other candidates. I think she's in the red, though for favorability she might be yet like just on the water yeah and it's sort of like well. Why it's interesting like when we like? I keep going back to the diner words like it's so obvious. It's like

does like we all talk about it. I, like being, is the same way like Obama ran for president. We were like well part of who period the case was like he could really excite black voters now, the other it was like he could really turn off. White voters and people talked about that very very much so. But when we talk about like women candidates, I feel like we don't talk enough about, they will say well, Comma Harrison, Kristen, Gellibrand and Elizabeth Warren, like they could. White women voters. But we don't talk enough about like who they could turn off, because it's almost like, listen like If you accused someone of being sexist. Let me tell you from purse experience, they do not react well or even if you imply that, like systemically a place or thing has gender blind spots, people no matter how good or well intentioned, don't react. Well to that. So in some ways I also think when we do political, Thing we want to almost like is the way we tell like you tell girls like you can be anything you want right and then like that

from college and then they were like, oh shit. No, you can't, I mean that's a little, that's a little strong, but it's also like we'll it. That white washing the gender dynamic of like wealth, it's pie positive, because she could appeal to a certain group of people, but it's also she could turn off huge group of people. Let me push back we're talking about a democratic primary and there are sexists in the Democratic party. We also have a just had like a whole series of primaries last year for races for Congress and for governor, and you have many races when women candidates ran up again, Nokia dates and the wind, like one, some very large fraction of those. So maybe the fact that first of all you're talking about The fifth of the electorate are women of the remaining and women. I guess can be sexist to toward others. For sure, but like but you're also talking about, like, I think younger Democrats are

often pretty aware of the importance of sexism and other things being healthy called, would rather have a woman can date and- and I'm like at eight for that matter, so I don't know. I think I think it's like in the text of a general election. Maybe it's different baby, getting the questions like what ability means and likeability, and is that gendered? I don't know I mean I think there are. I think there are. Maybe it's not my place to say, but I think there are like certain archetypes at women, gay placed into a may be warned gets placed into an archetype it's challenging, but our priori, you know I would think women going out. Look looking at my list of Campus democratic Party of things being a legal. I think it's a slight advantage to be a woman and maybe not a woman on the left, because the left is actually most male part of the party. Well, that's a thing in

about the kind of what archetype you're put into you know. There is a study that was part of our reading, which which found in this isn't a unique finding quote. People are less inclined to vote for female candidates if they are seen as political power seekers, but power seeking perceptions do not affect voter preferences for a male cat at There's not just like. Are you a female candidate? It's like what type of personality do you have? What type of public persona do you have and certain touristic's are held against you. If your woman that are not held against you, if you're meant so, if you're a woman who gets up on stage and is and is seen as ambitious. Then I think you'll be dinged for that and we we saw that with Clint. I think we're seeing that with warrant. That's not to say that look. I don't think claire- or I are saying like sexism- is only reason. Barnes favorables are what they are, but I don't think it's right to be like just because a bunch of women in the primaries last year and just because it's a democratic primary that this isn't playing

big role. I also want to address the, which is, I think, it's interesting thought to have out there, but I So I'm curious to see the dynamic of this democratic party primary as it shapes up, because I'm curious about how strategic voters will be, and so some of it you know they really want to be Trump right. Kind of the overarching thing and I am curious about who people want in their heart of hearts. To be, president of the United States and who they think will be able to defeat Donald Trump, and I You might see a lot of. I don't know the dynamic of the primary yet, but I could be. Much see a dynamic of stretch voting popping up with voters where they were like will listen is kind of sexist and they don't like women. We saw that proved by the last election, who can defeat Donald Trump? Well, you know what I guess Joe. Biden's making that case. You know who's even younger and who's, also white and also a man Progressive, wow, better will

org, I'm like that's the theory of the case for better O'Rourke, which is people are like. Oh you know in my heart of hearts. I want Elizabeth Warren Pure of heart, progress, warrior right, but she's a woman and an old one at that, and everyone thinks she's a schoolmarm marm, let's vote for Beto O'Rourke, because he and handsome and a man and doesn't have as long of a track record in public life and didn't he was a native american and blah blah blah and like I could see some strategic voting happening. Where democrats have the person I want to be president and then the person they think can beat Trump I'm not I'm not sure how that's going to play out. I mean there is a different electability objection to war, in which that there is, I would say, fairly good evidence I wouldn't call it will prove but fairly persuasive evidence the closer you are to the center, the better you tend to do and she is for the to the left, then a no more than another. You know Amy,

publisher or someone or a biting or whatever else right and so also initially for Bernie Sanders by the way she's a bit closer to the center than Sanders a bit, but like do only to the left him with you know in Trump might run to the center against her. You know you also have the fact that, like if you look at her MAR tions a victory in her Senate races. They're, not that good. I mean underperformed Hillary Clinton, despite it being a a blue year and she being against a no name opponent. You know club a for example, and by a larger margin in Minnesota. So I don't people start using this benchmark. We used it in our peace but like, but I don't. Let's right I mean if voters don't like her, then it our job to say that for sure, that's exactly what I'm saying, but it's also like. We should talk about why voters might not like her, and I think the sexism should come metaphorically at the top part of peace rather than slotted in at the very bottom, is like an afterthought, because I don't think it's a crazy saying that she underperformed Clinton at a time when a

people are speculating that Warren might eventually run for president someday. You know like I think that that's where she was seen as like a divisive person and she was going after Trump pretty hard during that election member like she was kind of taunting him yeah the trick for us, though I think to get at this point, like okay, so you say, and all this is true one but underperformed relative to what you would have. Especially as I was saying compared to some of my are, who way over performed in Minnesota. But when When does that sort of start to feed on itself in in where, if you're, not sort of highlighting but Claire saying, which is okay, what why her favorables, where they are why she underperforming? Let's pick that apart, then it can be like you know, our Jobst. Our job is to cover the horse race, but if you, if all that coverage is sort of pointing out a weakness, it become somewhat of a self fulfilling prophecy right. The way it is a little bit tricky. I mean the same was true love,

sixteen, where the more coverage of her weaknesses that was in the air, the more those we says were weaknesses, you're right. It's the tricky thing and like maybe it goes back to my slightly embellish, but perhaps your point of like maybe women, Women can't overcome certain societal perceptions at this point right where we like we the men and women are equal, but then you go out. Into the world's in you as an adult woman, and you, as things aren't, perceptions are very different and that and, as you grow older, you know- our young woman, there's no longer excitement surrounding you, you become like Elizabeth and people are a little more down on you. They only see the downsides of being woman. So, like I mean that's a depressing, thing to say, but it's like maybe its, which locked in this

a terrible loss, loss, loss, loss off. My question, then, is I mean: do we think if Elizabeth Warren were a sixty nine year old white man who had been accused of using her native american heritage to her professional advantage or his professional advantage? would that person be potentially like doing better in this case, and also I mean pointing to any club which, as neat, did she according to morning. Console is the third most popular senator in America. Do we think if IRAN she would face. The same kind of you know like a the scrutiny in the press or is there something? No, she totally clothes are, but no one really knows anything about her. Besides the fact that she didn't a terse exchange rate right, I have not, but this is really not looking bad. This is within her own state. These are polls with internet state, so I mean is

something particular tool is with Warren, where she has weaknesses that go beyond her gender that could affect her in the democratic primary that wouldn't affect in the global chart. Sorry for short, and to clarify here, I am not saying that women and women politicians are above criticism the exact opposite, because nothing gets me going more as a one as a journalist, then when it, petition a female politician says in order to escape criticism, will that sexist? It's all sexist? It listen if you're in public life or person, and you something wrong or you do something questionable like people are allowed to go after you and criticize an. I think. I understand the point you're trying to make. But I also want to push back real hard and say that we can we can walk and chew gum. At the same time we can say well have sex is perceptions of women and their valley, criticisms of women. Anything else is you know, flattening a woman out right right, and I guess I'm just bring that up, because we're

the theory of why she would lose total. We spent most of the time talking about sexism totally clearly other reason she could, which is far right. It's the it's the she is far to the left of the center that but also sex, I'm just doesn't manifest itself uniformly woman to woman to woman. I think I mean I think it's safe to say that Warren, like Clinton, has certain personality traits that bring that sexism out an. I guess we should talk because I'm talking about sexism we've than american thing, the the country it's tricky, because some people are saying well, it's been blown out of proportion, but I do think it does to allow facility by an older white person or a person of a certain age who just didn't have the familiarity to to say like: oh maybe this is treading in some bad territory. So I think progressives were talking at the theory of the case. Besides gender, besides oh she's, too far left progressive else, might say yikes that wasn't

look for less with Warren. If we want to run a multi racial coalition, does it? Is it good that this person didn't know? That was bad? So so I think that's a really important question of put the dna test aside for a second. How will Warren do with black voters? Black voters were about I'd like a quarter. Voters, democratic prime voters in twenty. Sixteen Sanders didn't do well and that's mostly why he lost right like how do stink water and will do with with black letters. So I'm pretty sure I got this from Dave Weigel Twitter Feed, but if I'm miss citing sorry apparently this weekend when Warren was in Iowa, she was doing a lot in her stump speeches to incorporate talking about like racial just as in the way that, like sexism and racism intertwined, so it's obvious, they are aware she got the message right He got the message she's aware of the deficiency or the potential deficiency or lack of connection with minority voters. Historically there, to be an alliance between black voters

and the party establishment. You know, John Kerry did well among black and hispanic voters in two thousand and four, and he is another politician from Massachusetts. You might not expect to necessarily you know I would say, you do have a field of candidates this time around, where you have a couple of candidates who themselves we black at least one is going to be hispanic? Maybe one or Asian Andy, a those who come from states beta work where do want to say about him. He was elected from constituency that was seventy five percent, eighty percent hispanic or you people from states that are more diverse in Massachusetts. So it's like any track nominee of the twelve plus with them there are, are going to win eighty five to ninety three percent of the democratic vote in November, two thousand and twenty. Unless there's some third party complication or something so it's like not like. She wouldn't be an acceptable choice but like, but would she be a first choice?

necessarily you know she does seem running by the way in this Traditional? I Slash New Hampshire strategy, where you're gonna Kamala, Harris and Beto, because California and Texas will relatively early in process March third baby and they have early voting in California, so they're going to be pursuing a hey, forget, Iowa and New Hampshire. It's all about California, Texas and accumulation, whatever else right and probably I was going to say white and like it's the toothpaste or something right, but the fact that, if you are kind of appeal, I Iowa New Hampshire as opposed to saying the get go like hey. You know, I'm we have a multi racial coalition that I'm building I mean. I know we will get in this theme and you know in running the piece that I keep teasing my album is dropping my guys and this email file moon gets back together, but Gmail Boo report to like it might be

can debate whether to advantage or disadvantage to be a woman. I think it might be an advantage to be a non white candidate, the Democratic Party, maybe in the primary in the prime, can she win the primary? Without doing well among black voters. If she don't like, three? Can I mean if you kind of went all the different white constituencies the party established in the left in then your emails, then you z in during the general right, but her client, yeah, it's I want to, but you know it kind of used to be. I haven't looked at exit the eighty four democratic primary whatever, but it kind of used to be that, like, like Walter, Mondale and Gary Hart would compete for the white vote and see the black vote to Jesse Jackson and assume that. Well, though, the black people will those words come around in the end right. So it's like you know, fact that you seen since the early 90s in about by the way but Clinton in nineteen. Ninety two-

there's a whole sister Souljah moment and whatever else right- and he kind of you Know- was happy to throw black politics in the black voters under the bus. But that's changed more recently and it's changed the way that, like you, know you have this alliance where so every time in at least the past three or four primaries, black voters have been on the winning side, so they were, they backed up Mama the Clinton and sixteen they that carrying on where I haven't looked, I assume they backed Gore in two thousand and not Brad, and so you know it's a very sick, restful alliance kind of between, like the party establishment down the african american vote, but I think it is important. I mean we know we haven't brought up or have we. The party decides whole theory about like, but you know what do you so called part? elites think about Warren was to get endorsements from where mainstream democratic figures will she get endorsements from union? for example, which are important bridge between the left and the sent. Whatever or whatever party you know. Who will

she competing with. I mean there clearly seems to be reluctant by any kind of mainstream, Epson Democrat to throw their weight behind Bernie Sanders he's having trouble staffing his campaign having trouble getting very many endorsements right? So will I say: ok, maybe we could live with Warren we can't with Sanders? Who is not been a democrat literal and so maybe you would see some pool there. You also here Sherry Brown. Who is maybe, if you where to say who is the best male analogy to war and then it might be shared Brown. What are the odds that saying there's doesn't run decent? I think they're decent see, I think they're decent to. I think, but I think if I were a betting woman, I would say he probably runs because he's a PA Does she go yeah yeah by the way I just shared an Instagram New Yorker Cartoon, but I think very much sums up this podcast, which Let's say for these last fleeting moments before the election cycle begins anew are come by. This is so fun that this thing is getting going anyway,

is getting going and the Good NEWS is. We have a whole like a year and a month to talk about all of this stuff before any of the votes actually happened, so we don't have to hash out. What do you really need your life for a year? Now we don't have to hash everything out right here right now and we can't because we do have to eventually come to some end. To podcast and before we do that we do have another topic to talk about, which is that the government is shut down and we're going to talk about that right after I tell you that today's podcast is brought to you by simply safe, simply safe is a home security company that you probably started hearing about on this podcast back when they were a start up in today, the transformed into the fastest growing a home security company in the nation protecting over two million people, while they just release their brand new home security system, the all new, simply safe, the system, completely rebuilt and redesign they've added new safeguards to protect against power, outages down, Wi Fi, cut landlines,

that's hammers, and everything in between the all. Simplisafe was redesigned to be practically invisible with powerful sensors, so small you'll hardly notice them, but you know who will notice them intruders, Please save spent years building this system they added so much, but you still get the same. Aaron, honest price, twenty four slash: seven protection for only fifteen dollars a month and there's no contract, but supply is limited, so visits, Simplysafe, dot, com, slash politics to order now that simplysafe dot com, slash politics to protect your home and your family. Today, simplysafe dot com slash politics all right. The government has now been partially shut down for sixteen days. There doesn't seem to be a clear deal on the horizon and if the government stay shut down for another six days, it will be the longer shut down of the past forty years. So we've talked

about the shutdown in the past and we've generally said that any political repercussions will be short, lived for either side. Does that calculus change at all? If this drags on for say a month, Nate? Yes, it does yep. Why? Because you have much more tangible impacts, I mean first of all, I have to get resolved at some point or maybe not right, but, like you know, you would see. For example, you never get your tax returns your text. You would see, for example, that, like people, you know have not gotten paid in several weeks, you would see potential among some of those workers, blue flu kind of strikes of various kinds. You would see. Potentially blue flu means calling in sick, called in sick to protest working conditions. Gotcha, you would see potentially major disruptions to the air transit system, another that networks- you know I mean so those begin to be be rather noticeable things and because Trump keep raising the stakes and

It goes on it kind of like the more the stakes are raised in some ways I'm willing to like. Potentially you know, probably three weeks or four, we from this, but potentially shut down the air transit overdramatic right, but severely disrupt the air transit system for which, by the way, a lot of members of Congress and journalists and one of them. I travel a lot right, some probably over sensitized toward anything that happens in airports but still remembering that happens in airports. We want to fly back to the Peter whatever for the weekend. Ok, so I really Dubuque IA. I was confused in my head, fair enough, but yeah I mean look So the way a sense now is like it's not it's too late now for it to end with kind of quietly just some agreement, and then people move on right either,

is by the stakes escalating over a period of weeks and months, or it ends by Trump kind of being humiliated in some ways, or it ends by democrats compromising and their base being really mad, and so all three of those things, I think, are kind of consequential. I mean no matter what happens. It ends with a whimper, not a bang and we're probably what if it were probably not going to get to the point where all all air traffic in the United States is or Trump Towson says, we're going to have the army core of engineers or some group, but we're going to the state of emergency and then build the wall? And then, if you along, he started trying to maneuver to do that yeah. I think he was asking agent is to cobble together funds, so you said that there could be political. Are there? Political repercussions now like who is the public blaming for the shutdown? Well trump early on it's kind of evened out a little bit since then. You know the longer it goes on. I think I don't know I'm not going to predict which way the pulse will go, but you,

I think the longer goes on the more it's covered as a side, a verse. I the story and therefore blamed sort of gets evened out, but Trump did say I will shut the government down. I mean this is not a trump trump is to blame for the shutdown, I don't think yeah. I think that's sort of like objectively true here MIKE said he would shut it down. Then, like promised that he would take responsibility for it. You kind of can't get more you know, but I'm just saying like it it'll go on week after week after week, then it's going to be like. Oh, they negotiations is the way it plays out as a negotiating story. So I think you already saw this in some polls that that blame starts to get even down and I'm actually one of the problems that we haven't had a lot of polling has been. It's been like it's been three weeks or so, since one of the big fancy pollsters, the big additional pollsters wait in and I would imagine people store so ABC, ABC News. Colleagues,

or CBS or NBC, or you know whatever well, some those will start to come in and I don't know if they start to show Trump having fallen back into the thirty something approval ratings. His approval rating has inched down a lot as inch down. You know the disc rubles up a point or two in approvals down the pointer, so it's actually been archer among impose a registered likely order supposed to adults which might imply that people who are being more attentive, like somebody, will snap back whenever it's over but like, but that is it kind of playing at the long run. The question is in part like what's. The steady state here is getting worse for getting better. When Democrats at the went down in twenty eighteen. It was more clear evidence there that their position was becoming less popular. Overtime, so you could kind of play it out and say we have to kind of cut our losses now at zero dollars and twenty cents on the dollar. Maybe a simpler, more rational. He would be kind of saying I mean I, I don't know what the upside is, although who knows you know if he were to get if for some

using the polling turned on Democrats in dance hello, see where to give him some funding for a border wall, and that would be at this point. I guess kind of end of a win it just No, I don't know what the mechanism is. That would lead her to want to that and less I know you know me. Trump is an unpopular president, taking an unpopular mechanism to with an unpopular position right. Maybe the fact that he is so whatever you want to stay consistent in his messaging, I guess at least so repetitive in it may be that moves the needle. At some point, maybe you do move toward. Overall. Prison ship were now. The wall is a bit less popular than Trump. Maybe it It's being nearly as unpopular isn't trump, which is still, which is still pretty unpopular, but you also have Gardner and Tom Tillis and Susan Collins they've all said: we're not big fans shut down and we're the ones whose necks are on the line in twenty twenty and the raw speed it could be used to potentially override a presidential veto which would be ticul embarrassing to Trump. I would think more time

The downside for Trump but Democrats are beginning their ten year controlling the house. I mean. Is this like a bad way for them to kick things off? I don't know if there was ever going to be any kind of like halo effect. Election for Nancy Pelosi, but what's the downside for Democrats here? No, it's it's hard. It's a partial down so in some ways. There's like not a lot of real that sounds callous is not that there's not a lot of real pain, because quite thousands of federal employees are not receiving paychecks and people who are on the lowest rung of them are in. You know, who don't have a safety net are really being screwed by this, so this is not to make light, but are a lot of government services still open, and so I don't think Democrats or SARA Lee suffering any

real wounds from not conceding to Trump's demands. I mean, if I see it as like, I think it would take like going back to mates scenarios. It would take people not getting their tax returns. It would take the transportation system getting shut down. It would take something drastic, an public opinion moving against Democrats for there to be lasting harm. I think, as opposed to there's a version where this goes on a couple of weeks trump, you know sort of meekly accepts. I don't know one point: two billion involve funding sort of like you know. He accepts sort of one fifth of a love and declares victory. I don't think there's much lasting political fact from that, at least in terms of twenty twenty for either Trump or the Democrats. I don't think so, but but look I'm I'm basing this on. There hasn't been lasting political effect from past shut downs. That's a small san

size, so it's like who who really knows if something really drastic happens, then sure there might be a lot, a lasting, a fact, but nothing at some point. You have a bunch of employees who are not being paid we've kind of been now through one pay cycle and, like I mean at some point, how much longer before you're going to have gigantic problems. You're not the whole. I agree with that. I just don't think it evitable like. I still think there's, however many weeks for there to be some non drastic with resolution, so we haven't gotten to an extreme point yet, but you see potentially date that it's on the horizon, I think it's on the horizon and then Nathan Bang will happen. Whimper will not. I thought the bang out a whimper. I thought you were referencing boom boom Nate's band, not that guy we got to track down a boom boom site is no recording if you're the college with Nate Silver an ever attended. Amy's party, the coffee shop- or

the third dorm or the dorm, and you recorded him somehow on your cassette player message. Please send me a twitter message at Clare Malone. Thank you. Alright, we'll leave it there and I think our next theory of the case actually is going to be. Who Leon Castro who announces this Saturday, so I'm betting, we get, we get one more announcement before then emergency I can't you heard it here. First people who is going to be didn't Jay Insley. I think it'll be in silly people like really holding their breath for him to declare. He would do an emergency podcasts friends. What would we? Actually? Yes, is the guy? Oh, my god he's a governor. I guess Washington's a pretty good state. We are what I mean. I don't think the importance of your candidacy depends on the quality of your state. Does money should depends on infinite? His beaten, like good, Japanese, wanted two thousand eight hundred Seattle suck and Lee hasn't no chance, Washington, real state,

I loved Fraser. Alright, I gotta eat something speaking of tacos. Alright, thank you, Nate. Thank you. Kayla Thank you Claire, thank you and please remember if you listen to boom boom, get at Clare Malone or at Mikako, and I would love to hear it too, and thank you Micah you're welcome. My name is Gail and Erica. Toni Chau is in the control room. You can get in touch, I emailing us at podcast at fivethirtyeight dot com. You can also, of course, tweeted us with any questions or comments seriously, though, if you have thoughts as our. Primary coverage gets underway. We want to hear them if fan of the show leave us a rating for a review in the Apple podcast store when you leave a rating, it helps our rankings, which helps others discover the show or just tell someone about us thanks again for listening and will see you soon.