This is a maybe a very New York bias by. I still have my smell back from having covert, and I honestly don't hate it Did you go? I might enter one of those like spicy food eating competitions and then might blow everybody out of the water, because they can you can't even taste it won't dockers hours in isolation. She had not been in isolation. Obviously, but firstly I would have done. hello, and welcome to devise thirty politics podcast, I'm Galen droop. According to a new pull out from the Wall Street Journal hispanic voters are now evenly between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party just a year after sixty percent voted for democratic House candidates, its clear. Hispanic voters have been trending away from the Democratic Party, but there's I'm caveats in those. Never so today we're gonna, ask our favorite question good use of Poland.

or bad use. Appalling were also gonna. Take a look at what makes high inflation so politically, Pope last Friday, the consumer price index should prices rising by six point: eight percent since last year the fastest right, in nearly forty years and rules are gonna check in on the endorsements that former president Trump is making. So far in the twenty twenty two midterms, we previously tracked endorsements from different wings of both parties to see who has the most sweat so is trumps endorsement a golden ticket to winning a republican primary and what kinds of candidates is he getting behind Europe meet to discuss at all as editor in chief mate, Silver Henny him, but also on us is politics. This process, and he Sarah Heel and senior elections, analysed Nathaniel Rigour chain of annual Hagen. Has everyone doing its mid December

hand into the holidays or I'll taken some time off. I think he s closing in on the favourite time of year were seems like society collectively agrees. They're gonna take a bit longer too. sir emails etc. The glass I love. I should also mention. Actually that reminds me. We are going to be only recording one podcast per week through the end of the year, so we'll have one hot cast out this week. next week, and we after that and then in the new year, will be back to two pike ass a week so weapon. The movement to collective. We take longer to answer you males and slow role, the pot costs, but, let's dive into our favorite question. Last week, the Wall Street Journal published the results of its recent pulling looking at various questions, including approval of the president and voting intention in twenty twenty two one of their headlines. Based on that Poland was quote, hispanic border is now even

we split between parties, Wall Street Journal, poor, finds they go into detail in the article quote, one year after giving democratic house candidates more than sixty percent of their vote according to pulls up time. The journal survey found that hispanic voters are evenly split in their choice for Congress, asked which party they would back if the election work. Today, thirty, Seven percent of hispanic voters said they would support the republican congressional candidate and thirty's in presenting said they would favour the Democrat with twenty two percent undecided. This article got plenty of attention, especially and also watching cycle, in which Republicans made meaningful gains with hispanic voters, but there are also some questions about what this data mean. So for one, that's a pretty big number of undecided.

and additionally, this was not a pool specifically surveying hispanic voters. As the article notes, the survey included fifteen hundred registered voters, including a hundred sixty five hispanic voters, the margin of error for the hispanic sample was plus or minus six point. Seven percent of points ok, so, based on all of that information and those colleagues and any other thoughts you might have about this pool- is that Wall Street Journal right up that headline. A good use of pulling Nathaniel kick off. this is a bad, is appalling. Sorry, mostly journal a right, yeah, I'd say that now the western journalists embarking upon a new and exciting pulling a partnership which were all for good for them, but the specific article, I dont think it was very responsible of them, her right up one specific cross tab from this pole, as Jim Galen, the sample size of a hundred sixty five hispanic voters with very small if we

a regular pull that had two hundred sixty five near respondents, we would be very sceptical of it. The margin of error is much increased in that event, as you also mentioned Galen. In addition, with hispanic voters in particular, they are notoriously difficult to put all four reasons, ranging from link barriers to increase mobility, and things like that, and so TAT a conquered normal pole, where you're just looking at a subset of Latinos at an even try to kind of over sample them. something like that and to extrapolate based on that. I think, is very suspect when you do have a lot of firms and thinking of places like latina decision, or excess research that specifically specialise in pulling already know Americans and given the the complexities of this group. We really ought to be looking at a more careful, bigger, Paul or even better. An aggregate of many different poles of spanish voters does, I run agree, I would say

and the reason why I say is on that introduced Maybe a little bit of a middle ground here is, as Nathaniel say, like the Wall Street Journal, they ve dramatically shaken up their poles right. These two partner with NBC News did that filling thirty years. is now they're using campaign, pollsters the lead poster for trumps campaign and twenty sixteen and twenty twenty and then leave pollster for guidance, and the idea here is large. sample sizes, which is also something that CNN said that they were taking on this year set seems to kind of b a trend we talked about that previously on the podcast about that was good. But then it was saying the biggest problem here is that they didn't over sample for hispanic voters, but the kind of want to take this one Paul and make this claim for hispanic, There is writ large, you know when we did our survey with Ipsos back in the lead up to the twenty twenty presidential election, looking at nine voters, we did eight thousand people and we ve spent

typically over sampled for voters who have a profile of not voting regularly. The downside is like that's expensive to do so? I kind of understand why the Wall Street Journal can't do that all the time why I say that is, is because earlier this year in October, Jeffrey's Kelly did a piece kind of looking into why Biden's approval rating was down and he found poles, early this year had shown a downward slope with independence and also with hispanic voters. So, that's to say, like I think, the Wall Street journals, findings kind of fit. In with what seen from other paws on hispanic boaters, but it's a small cross tab and it's not the deep, authoritative dive but the headline promises here and I think that's what the issue is I need you gonna, be the ultimate contrary and disagree. control of common sense and the This is a big problem, Democrats and you guys are kind of missing the forests of the trees there is

and lots and lots of evidence from Poland, as well as from maybe more importantly, voting that they hispanic with a shift from Democrats in some parts of the hispanic we are more than others, and sure, like you know, most Poland headlines. The pole should probably take into account In a context of other research on this topic and not me to highlight two hundred and eighty percent of it was cross tab, but simply problem for Democrats, it would be proper them and twenty twenty two big problem going, one day. I do want to talk about the broader question about trends among hispanic voters, but is this specific instance of this use of power doing what we usually get. You know pretty walking in specific here and then we can talk about the broader trans. Is this a good use of Paul? It's fine! Ok, it is working but now right, you'll find certain anecdotes, the book that you do a lot wait two because they meant to represent some broader topic. And, if you like, an honest author and the anecdote

indicative of like a broader theme and not some outlier, I don't have any problem with hiding something up. If it's not now liar excuse to like talk about things that our true more or less, I mean the whole point of light, I said before. Is you take taken context kind of other research? Well, somebody context might be that you do decide to write this finding up? Where is if you would found, for example, I don't know a poll showing black voters, but fifty slash fifty. That would be some enormous outlier? That would be irresponsible right, but here you are going to take new funding that is reasonably in line with others rich and I don't really think there's any problem with highlighting that looking at Starbucks left me, I wish they had kind of pointed to other poles like when we did that peace. In October we looked at like fifty plus poles right to kind of show this trend, and the thing I struggled with is where landed with the sample. Is it really didn't tell you anything unique about hispanic voters,

I mean by that is hispanic voters just mirrored the overall voter pull like Americans are not happy with. and so I wasn't sure than in looking at it like how much of that was uniquely telling me about hispanic voters in this one survey, I agree with you that there is a broader tran, its problematic for Democrats. I don't mean to downplay that I just thought that this individual pulled in, and me that much I agree but like as five thirty eight, we like it when other people do poles, it's good to the vote, journal? Now, I guess I'll be doing its own pulling from NBC. That's more poles in the universe right and if the price that- to pay, for that is sometimes they like to their own a little bit. Impertinent your Pauling is providing. whose value, above beyond the admission of appalling and are willing to pay the price and give them a little bit. If again, what the writing about

is something which is true over a larger set of data as well. There's two votes verbally is employing one vote for getting this appalling, so I guess we'll say met, but this does get at a more important question here. Ultimately, which is? Is this accurate? Does this pole a line with what we ve seen when we abrogate poles of hispanic voters but there is now a basically fifty fifty split, or is this some one of an outlier and that yes, hispanic voters have shifted towards Republicans, but not quite ass. Much it's definitely in line with what we have seen in other pulls hispanic. Voters have showed, among lack voters, white voters, the biggest decrease in support provided. The one thing I want to carry out here, though, is that but no voters have always kind have been swing. Voters and granted. If you will to exit polls from the nineteen nineties, they have overwhelmingly voted democratic, but a significant percentage has always voted Republican. It was one

five and twenty sixteen one trump was running per exit polls and twenty eighteen one in four and some pollsters find different percentages for that. Now, when you look at twenty twenty, it was roughly two and five. That is a significant increase, particularly from twenty eighteen. But we lose sight of that in two thousand for Bush, one like forty percent of the hispanic, though so it's like how much of this was a reversion to the mean under President Trump, who had significantly lost hispanic boat and sixteen hispanic voters moving back towards Republicans. Now, there's always been a contingency it does. I mean I think, needs right that this seems to point towards a pattern that is not good for Democrats, particularly where a lot of poles are now four hispanic support it is lower than Biden would want, but I also wonder how much of it is unique to hispanic voters and not just reflecting the overall stated. The economy in general. Dissatisfaction with Biden has overall approval is not good.

yeah I don't know Galen. I certainly don't dispute the overall picture that meat was driving at that Hispanics are becoming more of a swing. Group and Democrats can take them for granted anymore if they ever could. But I would point out that so I haven't looked at poles, though they kind of there has been a cross tab of generic ballot poles, which is what the survey is doing. The Pisa we published in October was about, by the prove a rating and that's deafening going down. I will also point out that the number of an undecided was just really really I hear- and I don't have any trouble at thirty. Seven percent of Latinos are Democrats and thirty seven percent of the Tina Republicans. The question is what are those twenty two percent in the middle and you know who were they can go for, unlike just in general, that show. I lumber undecided like this and a level of based support for each party aren't that you saw because those undecided and break whichever way that they are gonna break and there's a wide range of final margins there,

nay. What do you think? It's true Democrats have a lot of problems right now and then limited Hispanics, others also other signs of trouble, for example with asian american voters. There's some degree of erosion, perhaps and the lesser extent, even among backwaters too. So I'm again, this is not the emerging democratic majority that the party would have hoped for in parliament. When buying rating is in the take over all. You can have lots of different types of problems, crop up by Democrats have to do some serious reflection here there are lots of concerns about how well respected sumac see right now. But at the current moment Democrat, don't necessarily have a majority coalition anymore and some of them will rebound when the party does but this is kind of a three or four alarm fire. I think for Democrats, so it seems like there's something of a question here of ice.

you all that is unanswered, which is. Is this some kind of normal course of politics in a party does better and it was obvious that it does worsen the other party gain seeds or what when's the White House or whatever, or is this something unique and uniquely bad for Democrats? We try to answer that. What do you all think, I think the biggest point in favour for it? Being uniquely bad for Democrats is the divide we saw in education Shan even among hispanic voters. So we ve known education. Polarization has been a big thing with white voters and it's been a big thing for a while. Now This is from pews validated survey. So looking at the election results from twenty twenty in June, and they found that bite into much better among hispanic goes with the college degree than trumpeted trumpeted quite well with hispanic butter. Without a college degree, he won them. Forty, one percent to thirty percent,

and so I want to see another election were here. You know this continues out, but one hypothesis we ve had along the lines of you, know America divided, whether its Roar Urban America's divided on education. How much does that apply to hispanic voters? This was a quote from a piece you have just read in preparation, and for the part today, Galen from Roy Tax area, political scientist she's a little left leaning. But he was saying the reality of the hispanic population is that they are broadly speaking, Overwhelmingly working class economically progressive, but us Shelly Moderate Constituency- and so you know, if that bears out to be true, could pose real problems. Democrats have already seen kind of manifest in the polls already.

I'll just say adding to that that when you look at the breakdown of the percentage of Americans overall, who have a college degree, only thirty, seven percent of Americans. So that's potential- is a tricky math for Democrats and on top of that, Hispanics are now the largest minority group in country about nineteen percent- still growing significantly and asian Americans are the fastest growing minority groups in the country from five to seven percent of the country and black Americans about twelve percent of the country. And so, when you look at you know, you mentioned the kind of emerging democratic majority. If the growth areas in terms of non white voters are hispanic, an Asian in large part and those two groups seem to be shifting away from the Democratic Party that shakes up a lot of assumptions about what the future american electorate might look like or how it might behave. I'm curious: are you all seeing a picture? That's challenging your assumptions about american national politics. I mean, I think, that the emerging Democrat,

majority basis was always bogus. Writing we and others have covered the ground for a long time. I think as the country gets more diverse. There are reasons to think that the political once or continue to try to be around fifty fifty and so Republicans would try to appeal to groups like Latinos and Asians as they did in twenty twenty. In addition, there's a lot of talk about how the country you know is going to become majority minority by two thousand and forty or whatever. The projection is, but a lot of that kind of ignores the fact that These identities are fluid and when a merely Thompson to vote I wrote about latina voters before the twenty election. A big part of it was There are disconcerted, latino voters who, who have has been a carriage, but they are kind of increasingly simulating into White America and

your marrying with whites and losing a lot of. There has been a carriage and traditions and stuff like that, unlike some of them have stopped identifying ass, a spanish and so like it just goes to show that, like just because people with has been a carriage or asian heritage or by heritage or non white heritage are a certain number of the population does not necessarily mean that they will continue to pay that way or the way that that group is understood or behaves today. Yeah me, we have a story up this morning about the different racial groups at the census has historically use and just as an imperial fact, it has been fluid. How we ve thought about race, in the? U S and having about ethics city, where hispanic is actually not considered array spied a census bureau per SE, it and ethnicity that you can also belong to. The white in Hispanic are blocking hispanic or more We're Hispanics, identifies minor white or black, but There are also people who, I guess, officially win

Consider themselves, a spanner could be concerned by others said: be hispanic who figure themselves more as white people or as black people would have roused right, so partly seeks to think fragile, maybe kind of modern democratic notion of how we categorize deformation groups is, and that is kind of like a construct that me. not match how people feel on the ground, where there's always seem to have been like this baked an assumption that more diversity is a win for Democrats. I think what we are seeing challenged here is: that's not Nessus airily, true they're tends to be a tendency to want to walk all people of color in one umbrella, because it's a national political stage being We have seen following the protests. Last summer, for racial justice is hispanic voters more so than black voters support them.

Police and their issues and fault lines. I think that our present there that are challenging for Democrats, at least on a national level, to kind of build a coalition that speaks to all elements of its base rate. Hispanic voters also tend to be very patriotic, which is something that has, broadly speaking, been in decline. Nine among democratic voters, the national monitoring, whether its surprising and, in some sense it isn't, because if you have voted it's more polarize along educational lines, then static. Americans have fewer people without reason. Among white alone, American So if you have more educational polarization up comes a dominant theme that you are going to see. Erosion and credit performance among people were

Working class of always is potentially a kind of oversee, while of course, this is a trend that we're gonna continue tracking and will have more conversations about this, and we will watch from more data as it comes out to see how well it matches this Wall Street Journal, pull finding. Let's move on and take a look at the endorsements that former president Trump has made so far in the twenty twenty two midterms, but Today's podcast is brought you buy podium. If you own a business, you know there aren't enough hours in the day to waste playing phone tag. The list of customers you need to reach doesn't get any shorter, especially when businesses good that's. My local businesses everywhere turned to podium podium makes every interaction is easy, is sending a text, so everything that makes your business great can get done. Faster podium, isn't just a better way to communicate its a better way to do everything, gathering, reviews, collecting payments and even marketing to your customers podium makes it all is easy as pressing send you home just free up more time. You'll grow your business.

More done with podium. Your clothes deals with customers before the competition even has a chance to call them back joint more than one hundred thousand businesses that already use protein. to streamline or customer interactions, get started for free at podium, dot, com slashed five, three, eight! That's the number is not the letters or sign up for a paid podium account and get a free credit card. Reader restrictions why that's podium p? O d? I? U am dot com, slash five! Three, eight! One of the ways that we tried to understand the power centres in both parties is my tracking how different leaders and organizations doors in congressional primaries. Since two thousand eighteen, we ve been tracking how Trump has endorsed in republican primaries, and we are continuing to do that for this upcoming election, how much sway the former president has and how he uses it will be an important part of charging the future of the Republican Party so

No, you have taken on this responsibility in large part. In terms of tracking trumps endorsements and you're toppling take reserve, our you recently published an article about this was that trumps endorsements are earlier bolder and more dangerous than when he was president. So I'm happy for you. What does that mean? Yes, so I also want to give credit to are in turn, Mackenzie Wilkes, who helped collect the data and write the article, but is too early to say whether trumps endorsement still has the power that it did and when he was president, because do we just haven't had those twenty, two primary happened yet, and so we don't know his success rate yet, but we do denominator, unlike who he is endorsing- and those have had these three significant differences from twenty eighteen and twenty cycles when he was

so first, as you mentioned Galen endorsing earlier than ever so Mackenzie and I found forty six republican candidates who Trump has endorsed for either Senate House or governor so far, and if you go back to the twenty twenty election cycle at this point so December, twenty nineteen he had endorse only fifteen such candidates, so he's really wrapped up the pace of his endorsements and then another thing that we noticed is that they are a kind of riskier bolder. So in twenty twenty twenty two per se and of his total endorsements and republican primaries were in acid races needed involve incumbents, so, like basically the vast majority of trumps endorsements in twenty twenty or these Jimmy's. You know he was endorsing incumbent who faced either no opposition or extremely kind of token opposition Your however forty six percent of his endorsements are these non incumbent, contested races, which means that about half the time he's actually kind of jumping into a race.

Where there is considerable doubt about the ultimate outcome, and this is notable because lot of the reason that he has had such a high success rate in his past primary endorsements is because you endorse these total shoe and candidates, and this year is doing that about half the time, but the other half the time he is actually putting his record on the lion, so don't be surprised to see a dip in his win rate this year, In addition, it goes to show that he is really trying to use his influence. to steer the direction of the party and to change who the types of applicants were elected to a greater extent than he did when he was past. and kind of related to this. The third change that we noticed- and this is the more dangerous part of the headline is that he's endorsing candidates for some more niece offices, so special Bigley Secretary of State, which of course in most states Is the office that controls elections, and so has already endorsed three republican candidates for sector estate, all of whom are believers in the big lie, or the idea that between twenty election was stolen from tat. and so obviously, I think, given his me frankly

right statements to this effect. He has opposed people like Georgia. Secretary of state, Broad Rapids Burger, who refused to overturn NEO the election results, and he now he's endorsed a Georgia congressmen whose primary rapids Berger, and I think the part to fill in there is that there is a danger that these candidates, who pay Willie. If they win would do so in large part, because their beholden to trumps endorsement would then be a lot more willing to take steps that would suffer a free and fair election in twenty fourth sample, and you kind of also see that with some of the anti come it endorsements he's making in like centre in house, races and stuff like that, and so endorsing against a lot of the people who voted to impeach him. For example, people who didn't vote to overturn the Jane and Congress so Brian Camp, another example. The Georgia, the governor, whose

certified and binds narrow win in Georgia. Trump has endorsed, has primary opponent, so it seems clear that Trump is targeting these people, who aren't going along with. Basically, the plan of Trump won the election, regardless of the facts on the ground, and we should disregard the results in order to bring about that outcome. Show two projects are, first of all. How unique is it free form president to be endorsing candidates in the manner that Trump is. Yes, we haven't done a comprehensive look at past presidents, but just in general, his endorsement patterns have been very unusual for any present, even during the time he was pressed it's unusual for the present, because they have that leader of their part, right they have such outsourced power. I think in the past, has been seen as kind of unseemly for them to way and on their own priorities. Primaries interrupted that while he was president without hesitation, the one thing that I did look up in preparation of the

cast, is that a former President Obama and the twenty eighteen mid term elections? He didn't issue any endorsements until the general election phase of the campaign, and in that case it was really to draw, donors eyes towards certain candidates and is like a big blanket number riot yeah unlike a lot state, legislators and stuff like that? But like a brow Obama wasn't getting involved in twenty seventeen uncontested democratic primaries about the direction the party was gonna. Take so at least not actively. You know I guess he could make the case that he was working behind the scenes, fur for certain wings of a party, but yet it is certainly unusual as with many things about dollar, and so I think the literature overall is pretty mixed about whether endorsements, we matter writ large and when they might actually matter, but

Sarah and me I'm Curious- is there any reason to believe that trumps endorsement to do have a unique weight that the way that he is weighing into his party's Inter Party, fighting well sway the direction of the party I mean this seems like a pretty easy call right. The gene a plea for many years now for being a five and a half years, this has been unable to. I'm willing to just itself from Trump, whether its tactical or because they're afraid of reprisals. after them or their true believers. Yeah, it is these some other working party still, I mean I think this is the vengeance primary rehearsal, Trump, is going in that taken out his enemies. I do think, though, it is kind of an open question of how much republican voters care and, by the sooner particularly interested in Georgia, there's kindness baked in assumption that ok Camp didn't Kempton

was bidding now he's backed Purdue like it's all over One reason why Duncan did so well in Virginia is cause Trump Dennett Step in and I You know I don't know to what extent Georgia will follow the pattern of Virginia, but I do we are seeing someone who, this need is said. Asthma, Daniel said, has remained influential in the party. I do not mean to discount that, but he's also testing the bounds of his influence. in the sense that there some random quality to the types of endorsements he's made some candidates like that make sense. Others pure vengeance, pacts, where he's going against people who voted against him within peach man- or maybe you know as nothing those outlined the secretary of state candidates haven't said: hey I'd overturn the election, and that is the dangerous and I don't mean to undermine that. But I also don't know to what extent we will look back at the end of the primary season and say well. This was somebody who still had his pulse unworthy. Geo p is

yet this fear. I think it's an open proposition with our vote. Cutest there probably is probably, is a sizeable minority of who voters who want to move past Trump, but if of get back Party decides theory kind of thing that elite influence matters. Then he used the elite that other public any leads although I will be a little wonky here, though, I think that is an important intermediaries step right. I think that a big part of wide trumps endorsements have been so successful in the past, in addition to the fact that he endorses a bunch of candidates who are already Schumann's is the fact that other republican elites full line up Behind him so trumpet doors, somebody in that everybody gets on board. Other senators and- and Governors doors that person to and and other play. Strong republican candidates will drop out because they don't want pests, piss trump off stuff like that, and that is a question of. Is that going to happen again this year and so like with somebody like Herschel Walker? Who is trumps pick,

four Senate in Georgia he endorse them in that does seem to be working and Mitch. Mcconnell didn't seem very excited about. Herschel Walker is the first time. Candidates got some baggage, some scandals, but eventually MID Mcconnell got on board with him, but there races where that may not be the case. We saw in a special action earlier this year where Trump endorsed a candidate, but other republican elites were like. You know that I stopped persons very nice and I respect transport choice. However, I'm going with its other person, who is also very well qualified, and that resulted in one of trumpets and MRS losing an election earlier this year in Texas is sick district, and so I think that that will be important. I do think that probable with him. No longer being president the? U will see some republican elites more willing to not necessarily like the anti Trump, but just to go a different way from Trump and continue to support candidates who are running against his picks and as a result, you might see

others be like ok. Well, then, maybe they're too good republican choices in this election, trumped beckon, you my senators, Peck and now and then get they go for the centre, respect or something Nathaniel. You said that it was skewed, but just curious. Do have the numbers off hand of white trumps. Basically, win rate is for past endorsements yeah, it's extremely high. So in twenty twenty it was ninety eight percent for all endorsements and then in narrower category of contested non incumbent races it was ninety six percent. Basically the cat that he has said that, like anyone, I endorse, wins is almost always true, like us were put to the test this year. Yet no I mean I think too. The number of endorsements he's made to actively unseat members from his own party and particularly interested to see how those player I think Georgia again is a really interesting example, in the sense that you have to win a majority of the vote in the primary in order to advance, and that might not happen. There could very easily be run off

in Georgia, but I'm curious and states like that were trumpets. Putting his thumb on the scale here to say: hey this candidate hasn't done my bidding. How diverse respond to that yeah? That's a point. That's a perfect example of, like the leads. Aren't gonna go line up behind Trump. In this case, right near when he's literally endorsing against incumbent incumbents tend to look after, their own and beyond the fact, the party committees, the inertia c in the end, our s see, are designed help reelect incumbents, and so that I think, is gonna, be the biggest test for these trump endorsements and then there's a new by the way he's endorsed against ten income and so far this year and in total, while he was president, he endorsed against two and comments

You did the vengeance primary? I think that should be a headline totally, so I think that we in the national media see these primaries as a kind of pro Trump aunt. I trump conflict playing out in the Georgia governors, whereas, for example, in Georgia sector estate raised, of course, the congressional Basin Wyoming was chinese waste it to pay back picture in broad strokes, but from republican primary boundaries. Are they seeing this as a referendum on Trump? Is it that clear cut for the people? actually be deciding these conflict. That's really hard to answer gale any. I think it's like we're all trying to approximate how much influence does Trump still have? What does trump ISM look like without tromp, so these endorsements, I think, are really helpful proxy for understanding. Ok like how far to the right as a candidate. What are they willing to back pedal on the train

when the election result, how far they willing to push trumps agenda, and it does matter to what extent those candidates win, but I think what challenging is less Cheney and Wyoming really could be in trouble. Her own party without Tromp, like ousted her out of leadership within Congress, and so I don't mean to downplay some the significant anti democratic trends we ve seen there, but the extent to which primary voters are kind of grappling with this and that's. Why keep went back to Georgia? You know at camp and nationally earlier in the year, was kind of down in his approval rating whether was covered in just the countless handling, that's ticked back, so how much our voters really still mad at hand for what happened in Georgian Trump winning in hand not overturning the result? I dont know the answer there. So, as you ve all mentioned here,

we're looking at a situation where trumps influence is going to be put to the test, and the sway of these lies about the twenty twenty election are also to be put to the test. Do we have any pieces of evidence at this point to suggest the argument going one way or the other for the republican Party. Again, I feel like a little bit of broken record, but we have a track record of fire, for six years of Trump winning all these battles, you might think one thing that will dispel GNP is inescapable, might be Virginia, where Duncan was able to kind of show an alternative to trumped. That was quite successful, but I dont think that the GNP, is necessarily being that smart or technical anyway. and I think a lot of people are operating in fear of defying trump and or they really believe what from has to say. So I dont see much changing. I guess yeah. I think that the last time,

Ears have been littered with examples of people being like this is the moment the Republican Party is going to break from Trump and it's never happened, and so I think that the smart rent money as mates as remains on it remaining the party, but I do think there are reasons such as his riskier endorsements, the potential more willingness of other republican needs to support different candidates, particularly common ones, to think that has been re won't be as So I guess my kind of boring answer is that it's gonna be a mix. I dont know. If trumps when rate is gonna, be thirty percent, or eighty percent, but I think we can be confident. It's not gonna, be ninety eight percent. Again this was a story Nathaniel actually did earlier. This share is looking at the child Congress or Republicans. It left under Trump and what we were trying to answer, there is in part that happened. Cause Democrats had a really good year and twenty eighteen and they lost elections but-

also like this phenomenon of Trump ear, more Republicans in his mould winning office, but I think one thing that Daniel pointed out that peace and I think, continues to kind of be true. Currently is yes, the overall republican caucus, particularly in the house, got more conservative, but not overwhelmingly so, and I think there is still this debate that were seen play out real time of what Trump ISM looks like an estate. Like Virginia versus estate like what and I and I think right like his win rate- is not be ninety eight percent. This time, I guess we can later CSI Overstepped here, but you know we are going Can you to see this remaking of what it means to be conservative and some more trompe candidates winning as a result, we shall see, as you said, Sir I've nuts we're gonna, take a look at the political power of high inflation and to do that, our colleague send tool. Necker is gonna, be joiners from gonna. Let you guys go

Thank you need Sarah and Nathaniel ink scaling everybody's Galen. Alright, let's talk about inflation, but first today's podcast is brought you buy. Doom. Not everyone wants to be on a strict diet. Do two a days at the gym or drink questionable tease, instead of trying to cram your wife into someone else's idea of health, find new new muses psychology based approach to find a healthier balance. That's multiple to your life and, as a result, more sustainable rooms. Cognitive behavioral approach helps you better understand your relationship with food. How to be more mindful of your habits, It gives you the knowledge and support you need for long, lasting change. Seventy five percent of new users finished the program and more than sixty percent of users engaged with the programme. Keep the weight off for a year or more, with new, taking care of your health is empowering instead of stress do all you need is a daily ten minute check in no gruelling early warnings are huge chunks out of your day started

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Get your first. Five thousand dollars managed for free at wealth, front, dot, com, slash politics, that's w e, a l, TH, F, R, o anti dot com, slash politics, start building your wealth today at wealth, front, dot, com, slash politics! Last Friday, the consumer price index showed prices rising six point eight percent compared with a year ago, as I mentioned at the top, that is the fastest annual rise in praises in nearly forty years. It's coming amidst a historically fast economic turn around from the pandemic related recession, a tight labour market and historic levels of government stimulus, while wages for many low income workers are rising faster than prices for workers. Overall, growth in prices is outpacing growth in wage.

We have talked to economists on this package about some of the potential causes for this period of high inflation and where things may go from here, the long and short of it is that there are numerous causes, the pandemic chief among them, and it's not clear how long it will last, but today we're gonna, ask a different question, which is what do we know about how inflation has historically shaped our politics? And here the to answer that question is five: thirty, eight editor Central America welcome to the package, hey girl. How are doing well, so economists do all kinds of pulling just like we do. I guess forever and to see how consumers and businesses are experiencing the economy. So what do we know about how Americans are experiencing this economy in general right now? Americans are not feeling all that great the economy, so the University of Michigan, which is track consumer sentiment going back decades, now found

Americans feelings at the economy are as bad as they were during the recovery from the great recession about a decade ago and for the entire pandemic. There right now at a low point, so the economy has covered over the last happier, as you mentioned, but american consumer sentiment has gotten worse and that tracks in the polling too so gallop which tracks Americans conference in the economy, founded Americans, net confidence in the economy sat at night You have twenty nine underwater for the month in November, so Waymore Americans, they ve caught him, he's doing worse and there are less confident about it. Now then merchants who think it's doing well and Americans were asked if the economy is getting better or worse. Seventy percent of Americans think became is getting worse, will only twenty six percent say it's getting better and those Numbers are weighed down for what it was in Saint June when it looked like the current virus pandemic was about ending for a people.

a strange about this. Is that, as you, litter to unemployment has gone down Americans of spending a lot, and yet people are feeling worse and worse about the economy? So that's where inflation steps in perhaps as an explanation for some. This paradox is it the chalk that all up to inflation and who knows? Maybe inflation really is that politically powerful in that emotionally powerful that this is all about inflation? Are there other reasons that people might be feeling pessimistic about the economy? Yeah, that's a good question. So, for example, Americans deftly are feeling like. Let's say, if you wanna get less a used car, it takes a lot. One say that some things are in short supply. If you got a restaurant, you might find that food is taking longer to be to serve to you in and things of that nature. But I do think that and potential explains a lot of this sentiment, because the economy really has gotten better on a number of other fronts, and Americans are spending a lot more they're, going back to work increasingly but

inflation does have this really strong emotional poor, going back throughout history for American. So I think it is air to say that the psychological effect of facing higher prices is causing Americans to assess the economy pretty poorly right. Now. Let's talk about that has to, so usually the mind goes to the nineteen. Seventy is when we think of periods of hyper inflation. In the? U S, there have been other periods of significant inflation in the: U S as well. So looking back at history, what have the political consequences been here? The seventies are like a great example that, because, since the night and Seventys and eightys, inflation has been fairly low. For example, at the start of the night incendiaries Richard Nixon took measures to but a freeze on wages and prices, because inflation is starting to get really bad, partly reduced as a result of spending a lot. During the meeting I can sixties because the Vietnam WAR and public debt had really increase. So there was one really strong political response to that end. As a result, the economy serve did rebound in the near term,

Dixon's immediate political prospects and proved otherwise. We know he resigned because of Watergate, and then you look back at towards the latter half of 1970s, where inflation have been steadily taking off over the latter half of the decade but present card last, one thousand nine hundred and seventy eight, the midterms with both the House Representatives and the Senate in democratic control. But prices continue to increase over those last two years and he self, get swept out of office a losing and landslides to Reagan, so that has definitely been one of the lasting political impacts of and and most people today, if you ask them, will look to the nations these as the North star for understanding inflation but inflation Only one variable there like can we try to strip out all other things that were going on in politics and figure out how much of the public's backlash against incumbent president is because it inflation it's a great point and I dont want to oversell the impact of inflation and presidential approval, so

the richer loaded divided on this, but some researchers, that lets say a one point: increase inflation, MR about one percentage point decrease in incumbent parties, Berkshire and others is found that increasing inflation leads to lower presidential approval. But still we lower inflation, doesn't necessarily lead to higher presidential approval. So it does seem. really high ends of inflation or something that people really reacted very negative way but it's nice, if low price levels are something that people really mark of notice, so, like basically people notice when it's bad but they're, not necessarily gonna, who wore a party when it's just standard or average. Yet us with some of the researchers found so there's the two dozen to paper that found that higher was inflation, why to a lasting impact on presidential approval, but those lower levels. Inflation had turbulent negligible impact and presidential people, so as actors that say, the direction of prices turns around in

the coming year and we don't see this level of inflation near seven percent in twenty twenty two does that mean that we can't necessarily expected that binds approval will increase yeah? I don't think we can expect that for for reasons? One is serve a researcher excited about how does lovers inflation don't lead to higher presidential approval, but the fact is, like other things are going on the economy. So, for example, if you look back to let their demands and ease the Reagan recession. That happened as a result of really hawkish inflationary measures taken by the FED towards the end of the Carter measures and started Reagan. Administration led to a lot of suffering and people were really upset about the recession and that when people are not thinking about, oh, were Daimler lovers, inflation is thinking about employment, really high d, I'm MR poorly things like that and then, if you look at around the great recession, those also period of alive deflation and President Bush

Approval rating went down a lot Obama's approval rating suffered because of the really poor economy. so it wasn't just that inflation is low thousand how people are thinking about their thinking that economies do really poorly. I lost my and they re look around them and they see other things at her back so Inflation is certainly not the only thing that happens in the time that people react really strongly to. But at this moment it does appear that it is something it's on the minds of a lot of american consumers. It sounds like the politics of inflation are pretty complicated. High inflation is going to provoke a backlash, but also policies from the fad. Increased interest rates that could potentially spark a recession is also going to lead to a backlash yeah, and I think that is important to know that whatever choice of inflation

Can you take an all levels? Inflation. They end up, producing winners and losers throughout the economy and multiple economist. I spoke to stress this point, which is that you can't choose low inflation and that not have political effects of its own and they're also electro effects of it as well. I just and what else happens during the economy and are also other event that happened outside the economy that also affect presidential approval. So simple, not oversell the effect of inflation for it true that, when peasants think about there economic agenda. Inflation is one of those four letter words that really like strikes accord in terms of how their choosing their economic agenda as we wrap up here over the past decade. To weave increasingly seen that views of the economy are linked to partisanship in large part, you in addition to the actual reality on the ground,

now it seems, like the numbers, are bad enough, that for pessimism on the economy, that people are just following their partisan impulses by are we able to tease out the extent to which they are so? First of all, you absolutely right that, as the increasing pessimism of late has come from both Democrats, you view increasingly Judy the economy negatively and also report. Can sue already viewed the economy negatively, but are doing so even more so now. But it absolutely is true that, where are your republican or Democrat is hugely important for how you view the economy based on whether a democratic president in office? So, for example, researchers found that inflation expectations in red states under Trump were much lower than in blue states under Trump. Both you go back to your bonnet. Those inflation expectations were actually lower in blue states, then read states

Change happened almost overnight and reserved for Michael testified. Three has also found that Republican showed a lot more pessimism in economy going back to me, but then, if you take that back even further, they're, like before Inauguration Day, I'm publicans, erect fairly sanguine on the economy compared to Democrats. So that is a significant aspect was happening right now, but I do think it's important to note that, as time has gone on over the last six months, both Democrats and Republicans are feeling worse, but the economy, even though is that gap eyewitnesses all really great information. I appreciate you breaking down for a central place. Galen thanks a lot.

leave it there for today, as I mentioned at the top of the pod cast, were only gonna have one past per week through the end of the year. That in January will be back with two episodes per week, so that's it for today, and also for this week my name is Galen droop Tony chow. Isn't the virtual control room Clear Bigotry Curtis is on audio editing an emerald Riley is our internet. You can get in touch my email in us at podcast, at five, thirty, eight dot com. You can also, of course, treated us with any questions about, comments if you're a fan of the show us a rating or review in the apple pie, can store or tell someone about us thanks for listening, and we will cease Her