Yes, I think I runs perfectly framed now and my cat is locked upstairs times they ask. hello and welcome to the five thirty eight politics podcast I'm game in Amerika. and are exhausted, especially when it comes to come. with nineteen and former president truck Americans do not want to hear about either anymore. According to the results of a recent poll from Accidents- and you guess, amnesia. We're gonna ask if that is a good or bad use of Poland, but good or bad The last few years of news has been exhausting in twenty nineteen before hope it even hit two thirds of american

said they were worn out by the amount of news these days are going to discuss what effect this exhaustion has on our politics and our country, and if we had any energy laughed were also gonna. Take a look at the year ahead in politics. We are in a mid term election year. Maybe you ve heard and this fall. Voters will decide control of both chambers of Congress State Legislatures around the country and thirty six governorship. So what do voters care about most and what are the best indicators to look out to understand the political environment here with me to discuss all that, our politics editors are frozen hey. You can also go thus politics and type reporter Key Rogers, hey Cayley candle and senior elections. Analysts Nathaniel Rigour chain of annual pagan. How is everyone doing we're like a week into the new year? How do people feel about twenty twenty two's for I got my based on the weekend: gradual, you, we love to hear and feel good about that training.

Two so has been the year of the word or so at great. In my book I haven't played yellow biased all die with their learn, etc. So how are you not farrier? So, behind the times, may I often this is where it came as a net the green and yellow there's a whole channel, and the five thirty eight slack devoted to word or is the hot place to be. Have you been paid by word or to be by grow? Influencers are usually trying to spread the word or word spread. The word I wish I mean I now have to talk about. Ok, can someone explain it in thirty seconds for those who don't know so it's like. mastermind if people of play that, but basically you gas, a five, let our word and it will tell you whether any of the letters are in the right place or whether any of them are in the wrong place, but elsewhere in the world. And then you have six tries to guess what the word is and all you know that it's a five let her word that leads to the attic lying in a word

So you are random five other word and that kind of use possible nation to figure out what words matched the letters that they said is right. See you get. The latter is that like us, where it jumble grab lay like through your own kind of gases. You I mean the letters alphabet, Ok Smith, like twenty six to us as well as may I be really bad at but also sounds like I'm curious to check out anyway. Let's move on and ask our favorite question good use of pulling or bad use of pulling at and momentous, formerly known as survey monkey recently conducted a pole asking Americans about their thoughts on the past year and the year ahead. The pole offered respondents nine words to describe the year that they had in twenty twenty one and asked people to select all that

Quite so the universe was these nine words, but you could take all night if you wanted to the pole was not open ended, so the words in order of most commonly chosen to least were exhausting worrisome, chaotic hectic, hellish great man awesome epoch. The axe years of the poll reads: quote choices of the best words to describe twenty twenty one suggested fatigue, exhausting was at forty three percent Recent was also at forty three percent and chaotic was at thirty one percent. So, for some comparison, the least chosen word: Epic was just five percent. So is this a good use of pulling or a bad use of calling, I think the bad news and pulling for when I mean those you mentioned the list of adjectives that they gave people was ridiculous. Five and nine were negative in some way. One of them was met which is not even a word it just now,

actually quantify anything, and I think we can all kind of sense of growing fatigue among people whether its news fatigue covered fatigue, whatever it may be. I think there's gotta be a better way to measures that, unlike Heres, a list of a bunch of random words and kill me mentioned. Thought would make a great headline and how much do you agree with them? I also wonder about when the supply to every year isn't every year by the end of the year of little exhausting like whose having an epoch year every single year, also, I want to see the vendor diagram of super and people who said their use epochs. I feel. I agree with Kaylee. I think the imbalance in the in the word choice makes this a not great use of polling. I do think there's like fun end of year value in being, like do some free word association with the year that we just had, but Thou report I like an open, ended question which actually USA today in Suffolk, asked and their own pole or something very similar to this, but they just throw like throw out whatever. Where do you want, and there were some fun ones,

got train wreck was my favorite one for twenty one, but most people just like good bad. Some people did say tired did say tire donnagail enough. You have the result of that pole handy yes, so they were bucketed a little bit. The group that sad, awful terrible bad sought was twenties percent chaos. Confusing turmoil was twelve percent challenge. Hard rough was eleven percent that the disaster train wreck catastrophe category with six percent, and that was tied with people who said it was good or ok, that's also, six percent, all in all, just fourteen percent of people in that Paul offered adjectives that were positive. So that's kind of what you get when you ask people open, ended question, but, given that exhausting was offered to people- and it was the most chosen while most chosen alongside-

Worrisome doesn't tell us anything about Americans like. Is this such a bad use of pulling that we should take nothing away from this? Where is this about used to pulling? You might design it differently, but it is Katherine, something that is true broader public I'd, say the latter. I don't think so to say that twenty one was exhausting for people in yeah. Well, I take your point that most years are exhausting and three hundred sixty five days of flowing through Europe Give me a lot and I think there is obviously reason to think that twenty one was more exhausting them. Twenty nineteen UR noon, nineteen, seventy five but yeah? I think so the more honed instrument for measuring that might be called for. How would you do it? How do you get this question of how Americans are feeling about the world around them? It's about engagement, so there is a twenty. Team Paul from Pierre. I, which essentially asked the same question you know do Americans feel sad, angry fearful about what's going on a country today,

and that whole sixty nine percent said they felt sad, angry and fearful which is much higher than what momentum found. But I thought it was interesting is that they then followed up that question to kind of ask respondents for what had they done about those feelings, finding that nineteen percent of people had gotten in touch with an elected official fourteen percent had volunteered twelve percent had gone to a communal, meeting and I think that what you're seeing there is this disconnect between really extreme levels of high dissatisfaction with our current state of affairs, but it really low lack of engagement, and I think that something we saw present in the town twenty election in the sense of like really high turn out, but not necessarily people feeling engaged in part of our political process, and I think that's what we want pulls like this to capture. I just don't think like this pole is capturing that there were a number of questions on this point, and this was just one of them. They also asked- and this was more open, ended white was

on its would like to hear a less about in twenty twenty two. So people said they were exhausted in the last year. Like what would you like to put to bed thirty five percent said they would like to hear a less about covert. That was the number one thing that peoples that they would like to hear more about. Number two was that people would like to hear less about Trump and those all right higher than people who said they would like to hear less about death. Violence lies the media, all kinds of different things. Joe Biden, for example, is that a good use of polling and if so, what does that tell us One thing that's been standing to me with Ozma crime. Is I've seen a lot of daily news coverage reporting case numbers? given the shifting contacts around overcrowded, how contagious it is verses? How severe it is. I dont know that the daily case counts are useful metric anymore, and China with Maggie are signs of porter about this and she can Kurtz. I feel like I'm not only our face here, but I feel like as journalists may we

take some cues from this, like obviously people being tired of the This is not necessarily our problem, but there may be different approaches in what kind of information were covering. What we're sharing and what kind of context for providing with the legacy of the daily case counts. I dont over their system. But that information anymore. I think, similarly, at it's less clear, maybe if it's a good or bad use of polling, it's it's. How Americans feel that? Maybe democrats don't want to run against Trump in twenty twenty two, you know Biden has gotten some criticism for not going after trump more directly in his rebukes. I'm thinking about his speech on the anniversary of January which is one of his most emphatic calls to action on the state of our democracy. But he still in mention trump by name and a little bit of criticism again for that decision. But I think that some part, because Biden understand something that many in the media aren't still grasping, and that is that people are done with talking

bout tramp in one and move on, even those who may be support or supported trump. I think. Ok, I have a question what American saying when they say I wanted your last about export? Why is it they want it to be less salient in the world? They just want the issue to kind of go away, or they really just think the media should be covering it less regardless of its play. In the world? I think it's probably the first one galen, but I take your point that, like what is this place? telling us that a more precise pulling question wouldn't be able to tell us a little bit better. Does this just reflect the fact that but is unpopular and covered up she is also very unpopular. They approval rating for carbon is just like in the tank, etc and man. It sucks I'm not feeling good about codes chances in the next presidential the green avail. I think that people know sorry,

out of a covert coverage. Popular Nathaniel. Have you worked with appalling willing, I think, genuinely are criticising the media. Here, I think, than they think. Sometimes the media over covers certain issues, it's hard for us. I think to feel they were over covering something we cover, which is a global pandemic killing people, but maybe there is some huge take from that. I do think that two people are saying they they made me want to hear about other things or their seeing other issues happening in their community leaves or ito around and the required I reading anything about this wise. It just more covered case numbers yeah. Is there a certain point where maybe, regardless of how important something is or how big of an impact retired people just don't, have the capacity to focus on it or pay attention to it anymore? want to move on. Yes, I think so. I think that today we have the balance as report as we have to keep that might as much as you

want everyone to have full capacity attention on everything that we think is important. Every single day that's not a reality and people in general we consume so much news. I can only consume so much news and I work in this industry, so I think we have to keep that mine ass for approaching these topics that our coverage, so whether these are good or bad, uses appalling and it sounds like both of them are kind of man. Americans are getting more exhaustive. If you just look at this pole across time, this access momentum, pull forty percent of Americans described twenty eighteen as exhaust

and now its forty three percent, and according to that followed question. Maybe that exhaustion is particularly around covert and trot pew pulling from twenty nineteen. As I mentioned at the top suggested, two thirds of Americans were already worn out by the new cycle before covert. You mentioned engagement, Sarah, what other impact does this have on our politics and how voters behave the degree to which politics as functional that, whatever how Does exhaustion play out politically? Yes, you know I touched on that poor earlier from Pierre. I that kind of walked through the ways in which Americans are increasingly like not engaged with the community around them, and I think ones, Ipod Offices for Y, know poles and twenty twenty underestimated Trump and Republicans is because there is a growing segment of the american population that is more socially distanced from society there, Leslie

Please say they have close friends. There are more likely to say that they're not engaged in the community around them, and I think this is what we are seeing kind of borne out in pools, This is this. Exhaustion is kind of creeping into hell. We're interacting people around us, and I think that shaping our politics in a way in which we are are tuned in to what is happening in some ways liking over tired of hearing about covered, we're tired of hearing about trunks as Caerleon Daniel. Saying you can hear about that any day, open up any front page of any online publication there. It is frightened center, but I think the consequence of that Is there not trusting the political process in the same way and their losing faith and things changing, and I think we see that kind of reflected in the exhaustion, the languishing and people withdrawing from society, which again is kind of easy to do in the Koran

fires era. Right, you know we only have screens to connect us. I suspect, too, that this could exacerbate existing issue of division within the countries are not only legs, exhausted and tired of having to where mass. Now I'm mad at the people that are supportive of wearing mass or the people that are continuing to wear a mask and they seem like my enemy now, rather than just somebody is making a different choice than I am I think, about something like coal. Denial is or less extremely just kind of being like you know what I've been masking up and so- distancing for a year and I'm just gonna say screw it go on with my life. I definite could see that tying into the idea of of this politics of exhaustion. He I'm tired of of wearing, ask I'm tired you. I don't want to have to get a boost, your shot, every boy,

months. So conveniently enough. Last week, Charlie Sites and opinion writer at the bulwark, a conservative publication which, as opposed to Trump, wrote a piece title thoughts on our political exhaustion and he described for components of why people feel so exhausted with politics. The first was that there simply too much news. The second is that political debate is often done in bad faith and ultimately just described political debate today as stupid. The third was people feel like the questions are futile anyway, because no one changes their mind and little happens, and then the fourth is that there is a general sense of pessimism about the future. Really grim. But do you think that's an accurate description?

our politics. Why? Why not? I think it's pretty accurate. I think the one point, though, about pessimism that I would push back on a little as I just don't think whether its people predicting their chance of interacting with violent crime. If people should predict what's gonna happen in the future, like we're, just not good at that, I think the perfect example is there is a gallop pull over the summer that was asking people about how optimistic they were for the future. The country was headed in music. Sixty percent were like yes, things are going well and then what happens the delta area, so I do think some of this is more fungible and moves more than we might anticipated to move because it feels intractable. These issues of polarization have been true for a while but it's not as set in stone. I think as its easy to pontificate and right that it is- and I think people are

bad at understanding. Whether things are going to continue to get worse or if they might get better, but about us about twenty furniture is gonna be a great year are positive. Thinking the port of that is really stood out to me- was the sort of bad faith arguing, which is something that covering disinformation really stands out to me and is something that both sides are very guilty of. I've been reading. This book called good thinking by David Robber Grimes, that's about how logical fallacies are like at the root of so many of our societal problems that you see that, in these bad faith, arguments that are being made more work, We ve been talking about the same thing: we're not even arguing the same topics are coming up with the same like set of facts, and that causes a lot of this division. I did, however, also see some criticism on line that I thought was interesting was basically like imagine having the privilege to be exhausted by all this meaning

When some of these issues are impacting you directly, you are exhausted, but you can't just like sit back me like. I can't care about this anymore. You have to care, you have to continue to be engaged and it is a privilege, a kind of the appended pundit. We like everybody. So tired of all this, like that's that's nice, but there are people that are genuinely effective by the issues that other people are kind of sick of we I get the sense that the people who are most exhausted are the intelligentsia and the kind of elites who pay a lot of attention to politics and care deeply about it in this particular way. Other people may be exhausted about like caring for children and dealing with at home schooling in trying to figure out how to manage a family during a pandemic, and you know inflation or whatever, but like do our average Americans thinking about the stresses on democracy, our exhausting and like when Margaret

green mix of bad faith argument. I just feel like stressed out and pessimistic about the future of America, like, I think it's a wheat who feel the specific kind of exhaustion, that's what they mean and, and I'm talking about the preferences you made as far as like dealing with that one schooling people saying that their tired of hearing about I would like they probably return of here Morocco that they also have to literally deal of covert every single day, because its class got shut down again because three kids tests deposited in others. There is a gap there are between. So we agree. I think we're saying the same thing. Yeah also make the point that, like if real life is exhausting. That also me He pushes out politics. Rather people, people who may be upon time would have been engaged in by many serious point in politics are now

less engaged or taking shortcuts, Sir just being like, while the other side's ox, instead of engaging with more. That said that I dont think futility is uniquely privileged elite point of view right. I think you can more concretely be effected by what's happening. world now and still feel that things are futile. It might mean that you're, not necessarily following the discourse on January sixth with bated breath, but there can still be, I think, a pervading sense of you. Dont know what to trust in the media. You're too tired with your daily life to really care what

going on party. You know access this party. Why that they don't seem to deliver on any of their promises. They think that transcends the Pandit class. If he will do I've put arguments that one of the ways to solve part of this is to engage more in debates with people who disagree, review and try to experience more of the world that isn't what you're. So trouble with. Is that realistic or true and anyway, what's to be done about all? This is if this is indeed where we are, or some version of where we are. I think that that would Jim. We have a positive impact. I dont know if its realistic to expect people to do that. This is a weird credits again, but I saw as he's sorry at the comedy seller last month, and he had this bit about how every is just like a little bit worse, like every interaction. Can we do right now is like a little bit worse because of a merely in supply chain issues covered. You know that guy

resignation. Everything kind of adds up to make every experience like just kind of a little more exhausting that it would normally be. I got an offender vendor and I have to get my car fixed, but there's like the supply chain is usually have to wait to get the parts to fix. My car, like it's just stupid things that add up to making life more stressful, and I think what people are dealing. Oh, that it's so much harder to the euro then come across a p about how America is at risk of another civil war and have the capacity to really engage with those ideas? You're asking such a hefty question on a Monday morning, Galen, but I Let's do it guys had so America, nobody, I can't picture anymore, the essay or the debate that sparks of good faith convert,

station. I think immediately when something comes out: the door you kind of already have gasser predisposition for what that person's politics might be. You understand what the counter points are. You see pieces that and spouse that there is increasingly, I think, less of a arena, space for different viewpoints to debate each other, and for that to be ok, you know I think part of that is exacerbated by the pandemic. I'd get predates the pandemic, but it's hard to see how we have constructive debates about civil so and it goes back to kill using two by like some of the logical fallacies and not operating from the same set of facts, and I do not see how we get to this point where we're back to the mid eighty hundreds were persuasive arguments and you know debates were part of our discourse. I just I think

pass that we need to set up more salons and then everything will be all right. Well, I think we will leave things there to the forty three percent of Americans who say that the last year was exhausting to say I hear you, let's see if twenty twenty two can be a little bit better. We are going to talk about twenty twenty two but first reading to say goodbye to our colleague cayley. Thank you so much for joining us today. Thanks guys, it's fun and up next we're gonna talk to our colleague just and sir anything I'll stick around, but first today's podcast, brought you buy shop, a fine, that's the sound of another sail on shop of I we all in one commerce platform to start, run and grow your business shop. If I give Octopus the resources once reserved for big business, so upstarts start ups and establish businesses alike,

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active. They are sign up, fear, trial and get psychology based support and motivation to reach your goals at an oh, oh, am dot com, slash politics! That's an oh! Oh! Am dot com, slash politics to sign up for your trial. Let's look ahead to what twenty twenty two has in store for the country politically, at least so far as we can tell at the beginning of the year. It's a mid term year, so this November voters will decide control of both chambers of commerce state legislatures across the country and governor of thirty six states, the midterms are generally seen as a referendum on the incumbent president, and, as you can imagine, from the conversation we just had Many Americans are particularly happy, but a year can be a long time in politics, so we're gonna talk about where the political environment stance, currently the main political questions of the coming year and how midterms usually go based on history to discuss elections.

Was Jeffrey. Skelly is joining us. Welcome, just a gale and extra. Had me it's great to have you as always, so just kick us off. What are the best indicators we have of the american political environment, and what do they tell us right now right. So I think a couple of the sort of obvious data points that we turn to when looking ahead is the president's approval rating cuz. There's a- a decent correlation between where president approval is election day for mid term and how well or usually poorly his or her party. Does And then another data point which actually is, I would its even more telling when you get to election day, is the generic ballot which we monitor both of these things. We have averages for both of these things on our website. Generic ballot asked respondents. Do you plan to vote for the democratic, the Republican and your local

how selection, and especially as you get up right before the election, that number tends to be pretty accurate in terms of figuring out just how things are going to go in the mid term election erect. So right now, according to are tracker. Republicans not rather basically tide and the generic ballot Republicans around forty two and a half resigned. Democrats are forty two percent. Meanwhile, when it comes to Joe Biden approval reading his disapproval rating is fifty two percent and his approval rating is forty three percent to nine points underwater. Those are two pretty conflicting, Here's does not seem accurate. What is going on about things, potentially accurate. As of right now, here, ten months before the midterm election, in that a lot of generic bout pulling at this point is gonna have a fairly sizeable number of undecided voters, because a lot of that point

is of registered voters right now. So he knows you get closer the election. You get a better idea of what the likely electorates going to look like an pulsar start asking. Likely voters in a interim election where turnout is notably lower, the presidential election that likely voter make up is really important. So if you see a generic bout pulled, it's got it like thirty, nine. Thirty, nine right now I mean do the day the people who vote the mid term, the shares going break, down close to one hundred percent for Democrats and Republicans, it's not gonna be roughly around eighty percent, so it's Understanding that there's a lot of time, the girl alive people are NASA only to then to the election and also is that really should voter likely voter thought? You have to keep in mind when you're looking at pulses far out yet tell anything at fight their tails,

their trending and a similar direction in the sense of biting approval rating hasn't bounced back. Democrats did have a lead in the generic ballot earlier and twenty twenty one. But you know now she said Galahad roughly neck and neck and Nathaniel can speak to this more. But if anything we would expect, based on previous mid term elections cycles, that the numbers will just get as for Democrats and better for Republicans, yeah exactly we vote into this and in past mid term cycles. They generic ballot almost always gets worse for the President's party, the closer we get to the election, and it gets worse at a higher rate, if the presence party is democratic and that's likely because of the stood voter likely voter disparity that Jeff identified so likely. Voters tend to be a cop appoints more Republican then registered voters because democratic disproportionately, these kind of groups that are less well. About turning out so think, like young voters and people of color. When you compare these into

leaders to where they ve been historically, how are the parties situated and how is the president's are traded compared to you no past presidents and parties, I mean, I think the top line numbers are not very good. Forbidden and Democrats is well under water approval rating, so you know if you plug in the numbers for a is now based on silverware, think Smita Storical. You know you're looking at five for a big enough loss in the house to lose control. Cuz Democrats, you have a pretty narrow majority there, so it won't take very much for them to lose control. So what is it to twenty two to two hundred and thirteen? If there ever is a full house there been? nations, and so there is not actually for thirty five members there, but if you assign them based on which party would be likely to hold the seat in the couple vacant seats that are out there, Democrats, I think, can afford to lose four seats. That such a small number of such a small shift is switched control of the house that it wouldn't

Very much, even if Biden has a really good approval raining his party could very well is much more than that, just because midterms usually go poorly for the presence party. Even the president is road they popular. I bet, I guess I'm curious is Joe Biden and the Democratic Party doing uniquely poorly for this point in a presidency, or is this about how presidents are usually doing with the public? yeah Biden is definitely doing historically poorly, I think only trump and maybe also Gerald Ford. I think that, for it was close, but the deafening trump was the only president taboo, worse approval rating than Biden. at this point in his term in terms of a generic ballot pulling. I think it's pretty normal, where it's been in, especially with in past years, with no Democrat and the White House, I haven't done the numbers for like January of the year before the mid term, but to do this analysis back and I think it was November, and I found that new regions

The time where Democrats were leading by a small amount was like pretty consistent with bike cycles like two thousand and ten and two thousand and fourteen. Where Democrats also had like a two or three point lead in the generic ballot like about a year. for the election and, of course, what is happening was their Republicans gain several points and ended up doing while in those terms and then so far I don't really have a lot of special election results, because that could be another good indicator in aggregate to kind of understand Republicans over performing in districts, even where they dont, when or Democrats kind of doing better? You know that was one big sheriff out there was gonna, be a blue wave and twenty eighteen was Democrats, even if they did it. When, moreover, performing expectations, it's more of a swift pick. you're so far this year, tramping Jeffrey Nathaniel, like other indicators, that kind of Let us see whether or not a red wave is kind of on the horizon. I think it's premature at this point too

that out more in the other, one might be retirements, which is kind of a fuzzy one, because they got says more about how politician receive the national environment which isn't necessarily with the national farmers actually going to be, because politicians actually don't make very good pundits a lot of the time right now, they're a lot more democrats retiring from Congress, Damn Republicans, which I think reflects the belief that two thousand and twenty two will be a good republican year. So I don't think that's worth nothing to Republicans into our chance. indicating November's results to your point. Actually, Sarah, the special actions that I, more so than like the generic ballot. I think some Democrats are still looking at the generic bound, I go it's tied like you know it might not be such a bad year. After all, as we discussed, I think there are good reasons to think that that's gonna get better for Republicans. special actions, though, because that's been a wash their hands and that many of them at least on the federal level, and they still have time for repair against a kind of, not surprisingly strong performance, like maybe in the California twenty seconds.

Shall action which just recently got scheduled for April, but one where we would expect. Republicans too, have already shown some over performance and are of course, I'll be they're like in Virginia New Jersey, those warrant special actions, but we're not going to do well in those races. So maybe looking just at special, She isn't the right thing to do by social actions are the one thing that hasn't had terrible news for Democrats. Dns is looking back generic ballot tracker for a twenty eighteen cycle- and you know in January tenth, two thousand and eighteen Democrats were leading forty eight point, six percent to Republicans thirty seven point: nine who so you know in some ways I think a lot of the indicators. We have four just clear cut in that cycle than what we are currently seeing now, and maybe that goes back to some of the. Issues we saw on poles and twenty twenty. But of course you know, the twenty eighteen poles were very accurate for a mid term cycle, so just kind of her

understand how big a blow out this could be or could not be gathered and restoring them the signal was so clear in twenty eighteen, the the elections that we have to look like a new Jersey and Virginia seem to have a clear signal, but then the generic ballot doesn't so that something will have to continue tracking and maybe do more warning on in trying to understand why that

is. I think, it's kind of obvious why it was in twenty eighty. I think Trump had no honeymoon, basically, the first week he was in office there. There is mass protests, like I think the national mood turned very quickly against him and really calcified right at that level. That's why you saw basically from the beginning. Special action results were really good for Democrats. The generic ballot was really good for Democrats, and I think Biden is more of a typical president in that he had a honeymoon we're looking more like a bomb of situation where started off popular and kind of began, to slump gradually over the course of things, and that's why we're sliding into a republican leaning national? at the same way we didn't twenty ten rather than being jolted into one yeah dollars my brought. That was because you said earlier. This idea that violence approval were eating where it sits now is like historically bad, but we don't see as clear of signals in special elections in the retirements. At this point and in the generic back,

and I just I don't really thought through that- disconnect honestly as much some curious. What kind of contributing to that. I think that a certainly point Sarah. But I would also point out that binds pervading isn't as bad as trumps worries and just because, like special actions happened over the course of twenty twenty one, and so have some from later in the year, but some from earlier in the year and so they're going to naturally kind of factor in some of these when the environment wasn't so bad. For Democrats, that's at yeah looking forward like there is actually special action tomorrow in Florida and it's a very blue sea, some not sure, there's gonna be tell us, but I would expect Republicans to start over performing and special actions from now on. In fact, I would have expected a couple months ago and that I think what I'm gonna be looking or more and Democrats continued. You ok, then, maybe that a good sign for members to be clear. I still think that most of the indicators are bad for them and that still the smarter bat is its against Democrats yeah. I think something else: sort of keeping mine just to that truck by differences, that

trumps approval rating. In, like the time of the December special action for Alabama Sinner race was like thirty six thirty seven percent ads If binds around forty two, maybe forty three percent, that's still pretty significant difference, so I think perhaps the fact that we're getting not a signal that the suggested Republicans are going to do. Well in the mid term elections, but not one that is so just clear cut as leading into the twenty eighteen mid term. At this point makes sums its given that, and I think it's also worth remembering, though, that in short, he gets it. What we were talking about, the generic ballot pulling that their sort of us cyclical nature to presidential approval you sort of start out higher, though we know that you don't misunderstand as high Lemoore is used to and then use to some extent, and you may

actually see your approval rating as a president start to tick up again until it's your own re election campaign going on. So that's like the challenge for buying the Democrats is that historically, you wouldn't expect for his approval rating to jump back up. But of course you don't know what's going to happen between now and November, and something could happen that could help by may be covered, gets under better control. Maybe the economy approves in some way where people are for the. I mean it's it's difficult to say of course, and that's definitely a glass half full picture for Democrats. Imagine those things could work out, because a good also get worse. Of course, in that case, by could be had for really bad November to point years, like this, in more historical context when we say that the President Party usually has a bad mid term. What do we mean how bad exactly and how reliable is that world? Well,

If you really want to shoot back since, like nineteen hundred Durban three times where the president's party has actually gained seats in the house in the mid term election. So that's, nineteen, thirty, four, the first. determine the new deal and then I do ninety eight and two thousand too, of course there's two more recent examples: would we To believe, well, maybe maybe there's an opportunity here for Biden, but in I also think you're, pretty special cases, all three of them, because he had very popular president's George W Bush, ass to is coming off of eleven and having had like the highest recorded approval rating ever just after that in law. It had been a little over a year since then, he slider, providing north is sixty percent, which is very, very good for a president heading into the term election? Similarly in eighteen? Ninety eight, with Bill Clinton the model Wednesday trial and everything is proliferating, actually had gone up and was north a sixty percent, and I think there is a view that republican sort of

over? Did it trying to impeach him and there was a backlash again then in the end, but were also to king about in the cases of Bush and Clinton, single digit gains for their party. So it's not like their party went out in one like two thousand five hundred and thirty six. and when you think about the average loss for a house mid term for presence party being about twenty six seats. That's what those gains included. So a lot of other cycles have gone much more poorly for the President's party, yeah, all note. Also, though, that the trend is less certain in the Senate, and I think that has a lot to do with the fact that it's kind of random which group of states are up Senate, so in some groups of states are very favourable to Republicans and others are more neutral. There aren't any anymore that her good for Democrats, but so, for example, since world war. Two there ve been ninety.

Mid terms and in four of those the President's party actually gained Senate seats and in two of them they kind of state. Even so, I think, while history very clearly indicates that Democrats are going to lose the house in TWAIN too, I think there is still some kind of historical question about whether they can hold on to the Senate. So that is the silver lining for Democrats. How many of the previous met terms for like over the average? More like the shall act? of twenty eight t like how communist that sources of the average, since we were too, is twenty six, how seats? So I'm counting twenty eighteen two thousand and ten two thousand and six one thousand nine hundred and ninety four one thousand nine hundred and eighty two one thousand nine hundred and seventy four one thousand nine hundred and sixty six one thousand nine hundred and fifty eight

fifty and nineteen forty six. So that's ten out of nineteen that are above average, which make sense about half a crown and not debar, because it's like the first mid term of an uncommon president. By the time you maybe getting to later mid terms in your presidential tenure, you ve already lost a lot of the seats that might have come with. Backlash may be. I think that was certainly the case for like Obama, for instance, but I mean remember, President's lose reelection, sometimes or maybe they'll have a big red Action like mixing did and seventy two and then there is a lot of ground left for you to lose. So obviously those seventy form in terms were particularly bad for Republicans. I was the Watergate year, so I'm not sure that necessarily why they place into it. Sometimes, ok. So this is what the historical data says. I think listeners up this podcast are probably pretty familiar with this, a good reminder at the beginning of a mature election year. What we know about why this happens? We all over it all back

She gets the president, but what does that mean? Wiser, always Pugwash against the president? And what does it look like when you get into the details of the data I mean it seems like they're a couple he's going on. In all likelihood, this is based on a lot of political science. Research is out there, and we see this perhaps even more today, because things are very polarized- you sort have two camps and not a huge number of people in the middle of this two camps, it, the idea of differential turn out, which is idea that, in the twenty twenty two mid term elections with Democrat in the White House, your average republican voter is more likely to show up to vote and your average democrat control over everything else, because your a Republican shrilly ticked off at the status quo- and we saw the reverse of this and twenty eighteen when Democrats obviously turned out at higher levels. they were unhappy with the status quo with Donald Trump at the White House, so that something is thought about. Alighted sort of the in turn

Matters kind of idea, turnout, always matters to some extent, but there's probably something else is going on that even more important, especially when you consider how polarized these are now is that there is a small but significant group of people who tend to which their vote even they voted for Joe Biden and twenty twenty, but may well vote for Republican for the house in twenty twenty two and, if you think about your sword, the basic math of this- that's not only a vote gained for Republicans, that's also of lost for Democrats, your flipping them, if it's like a fairly likely voter, whereas turning out one extra Republican is only worth plus one that whole shifting of voters in the middle to some extent can be a really pivotal part of why you almost

I see this backlash. Midterms really does seem as if our politics swing, like a Pendule, unlike Nathaniel Jeffrey, were saying that earlier and INA just as soon as one parties in power, you know, and they start doing, the messy job of governing public opinion turns against them when I was asking about the parties where they really suffered huge losses. As in twenty eighteen- and I was just looking again at that data- and you know twenty ten. Obviously, when Democrat were in power, really stands out. They lost more than sixty seats and cure. so we know that this trend of the president's party in the White House does poorly. We ve talked about this in previous podcast as well, particularly when we are talking about the Virginia material action. But it's kind of unpacking, the reasons for like what differentiates and mid term. loss. That's mark close to the average of the twenty succeeds. Verse says, he's really big blow out years in some of the factors leading there, except does strike me as we know that

Things kind of will swing this way, but that doesn't mean we should be looking more at some of the underlying reasons that contribute to it yeah like, for instance, we know that in general- and there are certainly exceptions to this, but in general, when the president's grew a rating is worse, they lose more. How seats also, I think, just simply voters reacting to how the president is doing as a part of it. But I also think that clearly there are their factors such as you have just made me how many vulnerable seats are open and redistricting common factor into that as well as here. So you, it would be worth looking more in depth that at some of these extreme cases like twenty ten and twenty eighteen, I suspect there are a combination of factors, but those are definite view I made you can think about. The twenty ten mid terms, for example, with democratic somebody seas of the house, and there are a lot of democrats you who represented turf. That

John Mccain at one and two thousand eight when the south, particularly the restore a fair number of Democrats in red leaning seeds and they got wiped out the tweets in return for the most part. So I think that sort it gets at the identifying those talking about with vulnerable seeds, and so when you think about twenty two, two redistricting is going on this time around. So we're still sort of getting them, the land in terms of where things are going to stand in terms of which party might benefit the most from that, but it does look like It's not gonna, really shake things up all that much entrance which party will benefit, but I do think that there is a decent chance that for Democrats compared to the twenty two, an will not have nearly the same number of members who are representing seats that maybe lean Republican at their baseline there's. Just not gonna, be nearly many sea like that? So maybe that actually narrow the band of potential outcomes to some extent, although again Democrats have a very narrow majority says not going take Russia. The losers in the house.

Yeah, maybe it's worth noting, that the two biggest midterm losses since WWII have been in twenty ten and one thousand nine hundred and ninety four and those are both democrats suffering those losses and those are kind of the two big years like one thousand nine hundred and ninety four was one of the big ears and the south's realignment from democratic leaning to republican leaning and then, as Jeffrey Mention, two thousand and ten, I think, was kind of the last guy for some of those members kind of be the last blue dog. Denmark That's who had really held on in places like the South Twineham was basically when they were eliminated. Your mentioned that redistricting is one remaining open question for

the politics of the coming year, although, as the picture becomes clear, looks like it may not have a big impact in terms of changing the status quo. What other open questions remain? We have so much history and data to look at to tell us how this year might go. But what are the unknowns? Sits in addressing the economy place, a big role in presidential actions needed talked about this before its a bit more mixed in mid term cycle. In terms of its importance, however, read a really high point right now for inflation, and so, if that were to continue in issues with the supply chain related to the corona virus, does that effect voters more it has historically and other elections. You know you could see that playing out. I think one thing that is kind of a point of consternation and again when we are looking at all the various indicators, it's not really clear cut that it's like you, know huge red, waybill action, both

a point of consternation is: there's been this anti democratic drift within the GEO P. There's been these efforts to kind of talk about possibilities of overturning elections, how to give state legislatures more control, and yet it looks like it would be a good election year for them I think particularly those of us in the media and maybe struggle with that disconnect of how can voters openly back there's for parties increasingly more illiberal so I'm really curious on this anti democratic drift that were seen and play in the Jew P how does that continue to shape twenty twenty two? Does it make it an even better here for Republicans than anticipated? Is there no relationship at all, or is it something that may be tempers the gains that they would have made? Otherwise

yeah! I think another obvious one is is just covid. You know, I think. Maybe the one thing that could save Democrats is if the pandemic disappears or goes to a low point. That seems like something that could actually move Biden's approval rating and we also have a tracker for tracking his approval, specifically on the issue of the pandemic, and you saw that to climb in tandem with his own approval rating. So if the pandemic gets better, you can see that increase in and if there is a causal relationship there, he could see as overall approval reading increase and then maybe Democrats don't lose as many seats or don't lose any. Maybe I doubt that, but I do think that new kind of in keeping with the fact that an

to be these broader trends macro things, things that are generally out of the campaigners, control that are going to determine their result of twenty twenty, two more so than anything that healthcare related messaging. That Democrats decide to air yeah. I think one way I've sort o looked at this is conveyed and related issues like inflation and supply chain and certification. Legal stuff, you could Group covenant with like kitchen table and in a way as long as that's hanging over everything, it's sort of difficult to see a path for Democrats to really see a market improvement and their their current standing and Biden standing but if there were to be an improvement in those areas, maybe that opens up were space for voters to pay attention to things like the illiberal trend within the GNP decisions by the Supreme Court

like. Maybe that leaves more room for those things to actually sort of reach. Voters, because there's more, maybe this more room you even in the media, to pay attention to them, because you know there's not as much concerned about covid and inflation and things like that, but as long as those really key kitchen table things are short hanging out there and affecting people's lives is more difficult. For those other points of conversation to really enter into the picture, I think not, I think, that's a really good point. Why do you think So it will be interesting whether it is the Republicans who voted to impeach tromp and how they do for those that haven't. You know already called it. Quits like what happens in those races and then more broadly. What you're, seeing within the GEO P, is this device of candidates like Duncan and Virginia kind of running, who are trump adjacent, but not really trying to tie themselves to closely verses. Someone like

about OZ, Dr Oz, running now in Pennsylvania, for that Senate seat, whose very clearly trying to tie himself to trumps legacy and make Amerika great again, I think Jeffrey here, that's a really smart point that there might not be oxygen fur Americans to really grapple with the liberalism when they're at the ballot box, if their page is hurting week to week, but I am curious for what that shift and how that plays out in TWAIN too, are well Lothar talk president to rely on in terms of understanding this year and still some remaining questions. I think that's a good place to leavings. We will, of course be covering all this over the coming year, but for now I think you, Sarah Nathaniel Nathaniel, thinks Kalen the scale- and my name is Galen droop Tony Chow is in the virtual control room Clare. Budgetary Curtis is on audio editing and also liked, Come our new in turn, Emily even as key, we are very happy to have you welcome you get in touch

emailing us podcast at five, thirty eight dot com, you can also, of course, we dealt with questions or comments. If you're a fan of the show, leave us a reading or review and the Apple pie cast, poor. Tell someone about us thanks for listening and we will see, her.