Who hello and welcome to the five thirty eight politics podcast, I'm due and wrote. Last week we started to take a closer look at the New York City, mayoral primary and we're going to contain that coverage today, there is an assumption imbedded in that primary, that whoever wins is going to become the next mayor of New York City and that's because New York is heavily democratic. Three quarters of the city voted for President Biden in the twenty twenty election and work: isn't Of course, the Democratic Party dominates in cities large and small across the country. While the Republican Party dominates improve in observe and areas dynamic is one of the most ironclad trends and american politics population.

density can seem to trump just about everything. Today. We're gonna put the New York City primary in context by looking more broadly at the relationship between urban centres and the democratic party. Cities has huge concentrations of democratic, but what does that mean for the party? Nationally? how will the ways like the one in New York shape and be shaped by national democratic politics without to exports to come on the show and help us answer those questions both have done a lot of thinking on the past present and future of urban political power and what New York might protect to get things off here. Thus is political science, professor at Stanford University Jonathan, wrote in he's the author of the book why cities lose the deep roots of the urban rural political divide. Welcomes of bike asked thanks for having me nice to be here.

oh that. The answer to this question could and has spanned an entire book, but we'll go abroad and then we'll get into some of the details. Why is democratic political power concentrated in cities This is something that started around the new deal era. When the Democrats became an in urban party, mainly as a function of trying to mobilise urban, could densely populated working class voters associated with labour unions. So that integration of Democrats in urban areas started then and something similar happen with labour voters in Britain. in Australia and in throughout Europe really, but what trusting is that that concentration of democratic voters, insidious really increased, even as the class conflict and the relation yeah between income in voting decreased that relationship between the city and democratic voting increased alive

starting in the nineteen eighties and its increased ever since then, as politics has changed from something that about class conflict to something that has more of a cultural component. Why is that? It seems like the democratic coalition in cities. Today is a pretty diverse coalition of voters, a lot of working class voters of color and knowledge economy, a weeds. Why is there so much overlap in terms of political preference when you might think that they have different political priority yeah my sense of it at once? The Democrats became an urban party and they came to be dominant in those urban districts in the state legislature and in Congress. So, in a place like Massachusetts, when the knowledge economy is taking off in Boston in Cambridge? Here the Democrats, Are the that? That's where you go to you wanna get something done. The entire power structure is

is democratic and so that the initial relationship between the now the economy, employers and the Democrats studied starts out in places like Boston in Seattle in the Bay area, places where the Democrats were already dominant so the idea of the Democratic Party and takes on the interests. Urban residents as those interests kind of evolve. This is some That happened, I think very clearly with race and civil rights at something that happened with abortion, gay marriage and and and social issues, and most recently, as happened with the interests of the knowledge economy. So it's like the Democrats respond to the interests of urban residents in that starts, to become part of what the democratic platform or the perception of the platform is some of the things you don't I do in office.

and then that builds on itself and its than the Democrats has become an increasingly diverse coalition of urban interests. I want to get a little deeper into the democratic dynamics, but first obviously the mirror. Image of this trend is how republic in rural areas are you kind of described a dynamic where there are cut a pro active reasons that cities became so democratic their likewise proactive reasons why rural annex areas became so republican, or is that more of a reaction to what was happening in cities? That's a good question, Gaza is a combination of those having some of it is reactive, but some of us it also is pro active. I think you should go back to the eighties and we look at the moment we have witnessed in the seventies. It wasn't clear if you were opposed to abortion, which party you should vote for, but

starting in the nineteen eightys. It becomes very clear, and so I think there are rural and ex urban individuals who who for whom social issues are very salient who are migrating into the Republican Party slowly over that period. Most recently, we look at the positions in the era of tromp that the Republican Party has taken on trade, relationship with China. This is something that resonates with people in the in the areas where competition with China has has increased this is another area where white working class voters are switching their allegiance, at least for the moment in Berlin? Ex urban areas, where manufacturing is still is still trying to hold on the trend that you describe starts during the new deal era. Politics. Is it straight line trend or have cities fluctuated over that period.

Really was very heterogeneous. Initially, the Democrats were, if anything in the nineteen twenties, stronger in rural areas, in the late nineteenth twenties. It was the case that the debt the crowds gotta foothold in cities Dixon in New York, and the in Boston that was really where they started to become a working class type a party and then that spreads lay to other places who initially there was that there was a republican machine in places like Pittsburgh in and Philadelphia, so Eventually, when our Smith gets the nomination and nineteen twenty eight, the Democrats start to become more urban party and more cities, but that took place slowly and it took place first in the northeast But I didn't really happen in, like the mountain west in places like that until much later, and it did, happen in the deep south until this recent period of massive increase in urban rural polarization since the nineteen eighties, so it was

not linear. It was something that that that really happen under the timing of it was a different in different places, but was interesting about, Reagan era is that's. When everything starts to converge, you had all these idiots. Socratic rural place I still voted for Democrats up until fairly recently, I am one of the things that happened in them last few elections at all. These places are slowly falling. There there was a time. when south Missouri. There was, if you made a map of the old lead mining areas just like make make a map of lead mines in south he's Missouri and every election results. He would see this blue belt associated with rural mining, constituencies that voted for dammit, and that's slowly disappeared, and now it's gone. There are parts of Rural Ireland, Western Wisconsin, that that were quite but but still still still voted for Democrats and one one. The things we ve seen changing is a state by state

old patterns fall away and they all kinds snap onto this same urban, rural cleavage, postal service, data analyzed by CBS showed that about three hundred thirty thousand people left New York since the beginning of March, twenty twenty, of course in many ways related to the pandemic. We ve seen similar trends in other big cities like San Francisco, Chicago allay. Has the pandemic chow changed. American political geography. I think that's something we're all still trying to figure out, but I think Then we are people are starting to agree on and get some consensus on. Is it the nature of the church judges were seeing host pandemic are not completely new and coming out of nowhere? There really are strengthening of trends that we had already seen. I mean there's some exceptions to that. Like San Francisco is just really losing population away that that is still think kind of surprising, but the overall suburban it. asian. It is something that it see

less obvious just in the media and come away with we think about the world, but suburbanization has been happening. Can't gonna continuing all throughout The eightys and Ninetys into thousands We just saw an increase in that in that process, and also the places even people were making interstate moves, are moving too to completely new areas, they're moving places that were already rapidly gaining population in the first place, so Suburban Austin, Texas in Houston, in places like American suburban sprawl is continuing and its. If anything, the pandemic seems to have have just turned up a notch. The dynamic here is a little bit complicated too, because I think before the pandemic, there was this conception that there had been a revitalization of urban cores. It sounds like you're saying that Increasing organization was happening. At the same time, I will

he's I've learned about this is. Is it really difficult to speak in general terms about american cities having? What's happening in places like leave on Saint Louis in Cincinnati has not quite the same as as what's happened in places like New York, and so some of those cities have indeed drawn simple. Back to the urban poor in the in the last twenty years, but on the whole We're still Vienna will look at all the data from all the cities. We still see a gradual depopulation of the urban core, even if it might be the cases, some young people with different problems as you know, who want a different type of resin. you'll experience have been returning to the urban core. So I thought Yet it is the case that some cities have her, have really reinvented themselves and done very well and have gained population in the period before the pandemic, but that experience. That really is somewhat unique to her to a handful of of knowledge economy, cities that have attracted a certain type of of labour market opportunity that the vessels

Worthy of American Citys have not been able to attract, so I think it's important understand that heterogeneity and when trying to think that, through as demand as America becomes more sub urbanized and people potentially move to either nuke we growing cities are the suburban areas around them. Is that changing our politics into changing the democratic party? That's certainly what the Democrats are in some ways hoping for want of things. I point out at the end of my book is we think about that? The problem the Democrats face with this excessive concentration in cities in the ways that makes it difficult for the party to compete in the pivotal competitive districts around the middle of the distribution, these kind of mixed in suburban districts. If that's, if we can agree that that is a problem that the damage his face and its driven by a function of geography and gerrymandering. We ask myself what are the ways out of that problem of them is is residential mobility, and so, if it's true

add cities are depopulating and people are moving to these sprawling areas. In fact, this suggests that we're not moving for just that, the big sort constantly reinventing itself in and becoming stronger. If anything, the movements, happy We are currently making are taking people from very democratic places in there, putting them in more purple places, not where they're taking places we're a sort of red and turning them purple nice and again returning to play like a suburban areas in Texas and, of course, setting most famous lay suburban areas around Atlanta and Phoenix so in these pivotal states that everyone feels This is on the statewide races, which of course, there are good reasons to do that. People care a lot about Senate racism. We care a lot about the electoral college, but this so something else interesting going on, which is that, given this problem of of geography of the Democrats face in the district elections like state legislatures in the? U S, Congress,

its conceivable that this service suburbanization and these interstate moves and is growing and a sprawling purple an increasingly blue suburban areas, will make it more difficult for The task of gerrymandering for republican legislators in Georgia and Texas becomes a bit more channel. When it's such a moving target? When we have such a rapidly transform suburban area and you ve gonna, try to draw districts for for a ten year period when lots of things are changing, I think it's that's one of the more interesting areas of things to keep an eye on as this as this residential transformation takes place all right. Well, I think we're gonna leave their. Thank you so much for joining us tonight. I enjoyed it thanks for having the time

Jim between Urban Power centres and the suburbs luring away their residence was on the minds of the New York Merrill candidates. During two recent debates, the candidates were all eager to discuss how they wanted to make the city vibrant enough to retain its citizens and attract those who laughed during the pandemic back into the five borough, take a lesson we should be asking significant sums. Are I mean, like far more than the thirty million that build applause you as proposed to make our streets safer and more appealing, but then also to promote our city and get that energy back, because that's the best way we're gonna help that restaurants day opened by getting customers back? I have called for actually envy corporate welfare system and investing those dollars in our small and medium sized businesses, a fee and fine holiday for at least a year and one tangle. The red tape that strangling our small business,

What are we doing right now to deal with the over proliferation? A pan guys to deal with the gang problem is simple, with this, you will never get done violence down if the salary for shootings Brook is below twenty five percent, which is what it is right now we have gone from a pandemic of covered till an epidemic of gun violence that every time there is a quote from a police, we end up not solving the problem. This is: gotta be the new way of looking at it, and that means investing in mental health professionals. I have been black all my life, and that means I know two things. I know what it is like to fear crime. I know what it's like to fear: police violence. That's just one way that national trends inform the local issues in the New York City Mare race, to understand the other ways we called up after Fuchs she's, a political science professor and direct.

Of the urban and social Policy programme at Columbia, universities, school of international and public affairs. She also served as a special adviser to the mayor for governance and strategic planning under New York City Mare, Michael Bloomberg. Welcome to the past. Thank you. Last week we spoke withdrew New York City based reporters maps Some of the dynamics at play in the may always broadening that out of it. What are the biggest political debates going on in american cities today lots of times when people look at New York, they think we are silly generous. We have nothing to do with the rest of the country is very popular in presidential debates to trash New York, because so many republic, its think, that's a way to get votes. In reality, New York is not just a bell weather, but it's also a leader and when you look at New York, you'll find a microcosm of just about everything, good

bad that is going on in cities across the United States. So when we think of Our challenge is obviously the thing we most think about it. This moment is the state of our cities post cover, essentially Eric our recovery from who wouldn't be polite, to call it trifecta of crises right public health, the economy and race relations, all of which are playing out right now in F, a major city across the country and add to that the secondary impassive covered which are ruined the impacts and low income communities on public education, where there has been a disproportionate negative,

coming from schooling on line during this period and the loss of jobs, which is disproportionately impacted, low income populations in communities of color and, of course, the increase in crime, and we see the impact of all of this in New York Writ large in every city in the country is having to deal with all these crisis all at once. One of the biggest challenges that the nightmare of New York faces. I wondered put them in some sort, reasonable order. But it's really hard TED disconnect the set of challenge,

is that have come out in the last year. I would say of crises a New York's. Its first challenge is really crime and economic recovery. Basically, population left New York during covered for a variety of reasons, and so is business and small businesses. We just did. A survey of small businesses were devastated. having stated during covered in and you know, over half of New York City, small businesses are owned by women were minorities which is typical of most other place, other cities and small businesses are the largest source of jobs. They need not necessarily the largest source of tax revenue, but they are the largest source of job. So the economic recovery is critical to doing everything else knew your cast a fun basic services, police fires, sanitation, edge

patient, and you cannot do it unless people are working in paying taxes. We are living within the city limits because that's who we can tax that's the situation for every city. Every cities can only tax the folks and businesses who live with, in their city limits, and so the first order of business, is to stabilize the economy to stop the movement of of people and businesses out of the city and to focus on quality of life, of which crime is the first piece of that quality of life. If puzzle most important at the city level, politics which is different than national politics, is this quality.

Life right that plays very importantly, for people's decisions about where they want to live. If you are living in an unsafe fairy, if you feel like the city is unsafe, people who or middle class leave, they move out. We ve been through this before we ve, been through this in the seventies and eighties, and people move for jobs. frankly also but of course, those primarily the middle class people who enrich people who can do that poor people are less mobile, so the last thing we want to do is to concentrate poverty more essential cities. You talked about some broad, ranging issues: crime, police reform, there's housing and homelessness. There's education, quality of life issues, questions environment and preparing for climate change, and things like that. Can we dig in a little deeper to what debates are playing out and what solutions are being offered? That's it.

an interesting question. So if I could back us up for a second, I think is important. Since we're talking about Citys, you wrote to make two points which Cities are now actually making policy around all of those issues that you mentioned around around environmental policy amount array. economic development around poverty alleviation around to immigration policy, things that historically, no one ever thought where the Her view of cities, I mean think about climate change right. You know we can make climate lies in New York. We can restrict the use of fossil fuels and things of that sort, but if New Jersey the chooses to continue to do that. We can put up a wall and protect ourselves from the dirty polluted air, that's being created in New Jersey, yeah, yeah climate

change, and environmental policy has become squarely in the purview of cities, and so this is a great example of the of us. thing now that we understand a lot better witches citizens, it up engaging in these policy areas, because you know we had a long period of policy by the Democrats and Republicans who basically How did on a lot of domestic policy issues, and we didn't make much progress and We also had a long period of essentially abandoning Sidney's in this country of ignoring cities, have not understanding the importance of cities to the the economic well being of America, and so the consequence of that work, that cities started to develop their own policies. Finally, to focus on a range of areas of problems.

That had been inherently understood to be a better tackled either at the state regional or national level. The other point that I want to put on the table for everybody to understand is city policy. This is not the same as national politics ends the policy is not a thing. We are limited and restricted by something called Dylan's rule taped to be so esoteric here, but everybody should know Dylan's rule because Dylan's rule is directly connected to federalism, and it's the thing that essentially says cities don't really exist. except as creatures of state governments. So cities are not in the american constitution, they don't have legal authority that was conferred on them by the federal government. Seas are creations of state governments and states, give home rule two cities, but what they gave they can take away, and there is an extraordinarily important politics between

city and state governments where the states have all the cards essentially and in which cities are often very much restricted about what how they can tax and the kinds of policy is that they can create in almost people, know even education policy. In most, these mayors, don't control education policy for their city, some some sort of borders and- and you have to live with that- the only way get that changes through the state government making that change. So why is that important? It's important big, when you look at the way, Divisions and, in particular, most cities, are dominant, by the Democratic Party right now and when you look at the divisions within the Democratic Party, you see among the left progressive, an agenda at the city level, which most of the issues that they want to tackle and solve

are very difficult for cities to do alone without the support of the national government. I mean this is chain dealing with a binding administration for the moment at least, American rescue plan, which is extraordinary infusion of funds into cities, is really really important to this conversation is and what the cities can do, but city have legal mandates from most of their budget. What kind of tensions are these political debates creating within the Democratic Party or our politics? More broadly, so I think Do you know when you think about the tensions in the Democratic Party and you think about New York City? Most of the country thinks Abode Alexandrina, Abkhazia Cortez, who was that you know tremendous upset victory in her congressional campaign against her?

been to no one, and I mean no one and expected to lose, they should have, but they didn't. And of course, of course, here port has comes from the so called progressive left wing of the day, the credit already in her victory in that congressional ways was something that was pretty much heard all across the country and the Democratic Party and what we see now in New York in in the mayoral campaign, in all of our city, council races is a really interesting. dynamic I like to call it the left, leaning progresses versus the old school liberals with smattering of moderate Democrats in the mix over there, and I think that within cities, at least this is really the nature of the political divisions. Now it's really kind of left progressive

Why really wanna restructure politics along the lines of the Bernie Sanders agenda and old school liberals who kind of understand city? politics and its variations and what can be done at the city level, which is way different than what we can do in national politics. Democrats dominate in cities, Republicans dominate in rural and urban areas and in many ways that shapes the parties politics by democratic, somewhat of a disadvantage structurally because of their dominance in cities. Is the Democratic Party able to be a party of cities, or does it need to be a party that catering or to suburban and like swing voters in a way that Republicans mine?

necessarily need you in order to win majorities and so on. So this is such an important question. I think, and just sort of the historical perspective on this no Reagan was the first president to win without the support of not one single major city in this country, and ironically, though, before that Jimmy Carter was the President who started to decrease federal funding to cities, and so we ve had a kind of the situation in which national policy has been made without the input from the serious input from from cities in terms of new.

I mean the fact that were so behind in infrastructure is another really good. Example of ignoring cities. Now, what's changed this a couple, a thing: that's that's changed and I think that's part of what the Democratic Party is struggling with it is a kind of transformational moment in american politics nationally, and cities are very important in that in that transformation. So two things to change. One is this: sort of the economic base of the whole country depends on cities right now and that- and that has become clear to people and up until covered, we had a very strong migration back into central cities and the sort of creation of regional hops. Essentially, where the city was the centre in the suburbs excerpts were the spoke of these regional economies placed within a larger global economy.

So within that context, people start to realize to a certain extent, cities are really important. The other transformation sort of interesting in reverse switches. What are the reason? Cities could be ignored for so long ass. They were places where poverty concentrate. it and where minority populations concentrated in, not just because of the electoral college, but because of the way party politics had been structure, it was viewed. We, it take minority votes for granted and then in the electoral college they were less needed and they were likely to be or associated with low income population's suburbs have become more pluralistic, more multi cultural. more multi racial, that is to say, minorities of all different kinds, have moved out to the suburbs and the whole concept of minority. Does it really make much sense anymore? America is being

I mean what we would call a majority minority country and the nature of voting is if we really look at it carefully in terms of these kinds of broad categories, even in the last election and even though the Democratic Party won the majority of the hispanic food, there was all kinds of shifts in the hispanic folk that went to the Republican Party at night, in the border areas of Texas scenario, donor, but that's more complex than these kind of monolithic voting blocks that we ve used in the past to discuss the differences between the two major political parties. So, when you think about this, in the context of you know, the populations of cities becoming more

first, while the populations of suburbs are becoming more diverse, I'm we won't be able to make those distinctions. Do you think that the divide between cities and rural areas is being frustrated because, of contemporary migration patterns. I actually think that there is less of a divided. Queen citizen rural areas, we talk about it? Rural areas are not that significant anymore Oh it's not a big piece of the vote But it's really these sort of more suburban, an Ex urban areas that maybe have the split so and the suburbs are complicated. You have what you know used to be called the soccer moms as a swing population. And in terms of voting who wore a liberalized social issues, tend to be more conservative on on economic issues. Now, with crime going up,

no one really knows where they're gonna come down there. They are one of the true swing voters that still exist in the american electorate, and then you have african american suburbs. You ve got suburbs with Hispanics, you ve got poor suburbs, so the concept of suburbia asked as a political grouping, I think is, is

complex than it used to be in the same way, that's that the city center till cities- I would say you know that the legal jurisdiction of the city, as I like to call it, is also very different. The nature of immigrant populations and older ethic and racial groups that have been in cities for a long time represents often some political fault lines. For example, in african american community native born African American and Caribbean Americans often find themselves in different places. New immigrants don't necessarily vote the same way as African Americans who, who migrated from the south to the north in central city. So if you want pack this, that's what you can't you see that

Have these monolithic boats anymore, in particular in New York, it so fascinating, because we ve got rang choice, voting for the first time and we ve got ten candidates and are Merrill election. But you see different kinds of voting patterns where you you're, not gonna, see african Americans all voting for one candidate or jewish Americans, all moaning for what candidate or for that matter the way you know why ethics in the outer borrows all voting for one candidate. So there are splits now within these, so called monolithic voting blocks that are more reflective of ideological views, positions on issues of em and also the specific candidates who were running and that you see very clearly in the democratic primaries, given the challenges that you laid out. You also

Skype, a situation in which there are pretty big cleavage is within the Democratic Party over how to solve them who seems to be winning at this point in these debates that are going on in cities and ass, I questionable specific to New York City. but also across the country. More broadly, where it seems like vessels are doing better so far in may all races and local raises, then they might be doing in New York City. So I think the debate in New York is is complicated by the fact that, first of all, we just tat wages coming off eight years of a progressive mayor who most people view as a complete failure, except for his universal Pre K programme. So after eight years of progressive rhetoric, but I would think progressives progressive view. Them is a failure to so it's not just old school liberal Democrats who,

it is a failure, but what's also clear in New York City, is that for city wide elections, it's much more difficult to make an extreme progressive case in this. This is why nobody- and this is really about New York City politics, and I can say that generalised able. But I think that question is probably relevant in New York City politics. You have to create a in. There is not one single group that dominates so if you're in a city where one group dominates whether its racial group worry Cim Group or an ideological group. While then, it's obviously easier to win but in New York who dominate New York City politics, you can't white stone, dominate, you're, not a monolithic population, black stone, dominate history, don't tell me, you know what you can

point to a religious group that dominates, and certainly with then the Democratic Party, the progressives or not the dominant force. We ve got moderates. We ve got, as I said, all school liberals. We ve got progress with it, the Democratic Party and then there are even independence and Republicans out there So, let's say you're in the democratic primary you can use, this playing out now and it's pretty pretty interesting. You cannot simply win as a programme says: there's not enough progressive who vow now part of it is also turn out whose life The turn out- and we know older voters are still more likely to turn out. So in general, the data shows, for example, bad. You know whites are disproportionately represented. All the white voters are disproportionately represented in the press.

There is they turn out, I'm so that impacts how'd. You put together your majority coalition, and you know it was it it when you look at this raised right now. You see that that each candidate has tried to peel of a piece of the other candidates base electric if they they don't have a base, their marriage to begin with, but this had to bless. Yo was able to win by gay his in his first raised by getting thirty percent of the black vote, Annie any also combined that, where a lot of white ethnic votes from the outer boroughs, partly because they his name was built bless YO, and you know he didn't write as a progressive then.

in those races. The advertising that went to those communities was very different, for example, than the advertising that went her black communities in New York with pictures of his wife and his son. So this was a strategy to create a coalition and that's the kind of thing that has to be done in New York. Now one group dominates: that's me reflects broad national politics. We have one group that actually dominates american politics right now and we're in the middle of what, in my own political science had. I think we would call a realignment where out of this. God knows what will happen to the Republican Party once they sort out the Trump thing or if they sort out the trump

the Trump thing, but the Democratic Party is also in the throes of change in which they have to decide and will decide to what extent will they still be able to appeal to suburban white voters, as well as as minorities and urban left leading urban voters? And this you know biting put together an old school coalition to win, and a lot of people said that was in viable, and yet he did that

So it's it's not obvious to me where this ends. What will the new majority Party at the end of a realignment period? We a party either a new put party, comes, which I think is not likely a third party emerging or one of the two main parties, essentially reconfigured itself, with a different majority coalition that will reflect that a period of stability in american politics. We are not there yet. We are in the throes of this change. As we speak right now, and you know I think New York is this sort of can area in the coal mines, so to speak in terms of reflecting what will happen to the broader democratic party nationally or it wont. Let me things there. Thank you so much for joining me tonight. Oh, it's really my pleasure,

thank you so much. That's it for today were now just a little over two weeks away from primary election day in New York and will keep you posted on how these debates and trends shake out. Now my name is Galen droop Tony Chow is the virtual control room. An MRI weight is our interim. You can get in touch by emailing us at podcast, set five thirty, eight dot com. You can also course treated us with any press. Comments. If you're a friend of the show, leave us a rating or review in the apple pie, tat store or tails What about us thanks for happening, and we will see us her